Ball of Confusion

The Edmonton Oilers evened its record at 2-2-0 last night, with two strong periods and a six-goal barrage against the villains from Calgary. What did we learn? A lot, and not much, as it turned out.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions here.

  • New Lowetide: Three players who helped their Oilers hopes and three who didn’t do enough to separate in Edmonton’s fourth preseason game
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dreadful showing means several Oilers players are on the chopping block with cuts looming
  • Jonathan Willis: How quickly must the Oilers’ top AHL prospects claim NHL jobs before they become suspect?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: McDavid and more: Five thoughts through the first week of Oilers camp
  • Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto’s delayed training camp may benefit his Oilers career
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Brandon Manning on how his contract is hurting him, proving his worth at camp and being a mentor
  • Jonathan Willis: Four players who helped, three who hurt their Oilers hopes in Edmonton’s second preseason game
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How an offseason adding more pop in his stick and skates has James Neal primed for first Oilers season
  • Lowetide: A big night for Oilers defencemen Joel Persson, William Lagesson and Evan Bouchard
  • Lowetide: Preseason 2019-20: The Oilers’ journey to respectability begins
  • Lowetide: Handicapping Oilers prospect progress: The development of Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and William Lagesson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Eight key questions for the Oilers to solve at training camp
  • Jonathan Willis: Predicting the winners of the Oilers’ top-six and top-nine forward jobs out of camp
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: In, out or on the bubble: Breaking down positional battles at Oilers camp
  • New Lowetide: Evan Bouchard and the Calder Trophy: The Oilers’ pursuit of the elusive rookie award
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Alex Chiasson prepares to return to scoring form for Edmonton Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Kyle Brodziak defied the odds, and then the Oilers, to carve out a significant NHL career
  • Lowetide: Can Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith stop enough pucks for the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Shutdown success by Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson is a key for the Oilers in 2019-20.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Even if he’s unsure about his return, Oilers’ Connor McDavid looks and sounds like his old self
  • Lowetide: RE 19-20: How can the Oilers’ bottom six close the gap in goal differential?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson address respective highs and lows as Oilers rookie camp begins
  • Jonathan Willis: Riley Sheahan is a prudent signing by the Oilers in more ways than one
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With Evan Bouchard as the headliner, here are the players to watch at Oilers rookie camp
  • Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
  • Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
  • Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

LINE 1 Joakim Nygard-Leon Draisaitl-Zack Kassian played 11:13 together (all numbers five-on-five) and went 10-3 Corsi, 5-0 shots, 1-0 goals and 4-1 high danger scoring chances (HDSC).

Joakim Nygard probably won an NHL job last night. He scored a goal, five shots and four HDSC’s according to NTS. His speed adds a look this team badly needs. Impressive game.

Leon Draisaitl had some cobwebs early (clouds in my coffee, clouds in my coffee) but when the big train got rolling it was clear the track time. Outstanding final 30 from a dynamite player.

Zack Kassian scored a wonderful goal (okay, Gillies was struggling) and picked up an assist as well. If Kassian has turned some kind of offensive corner at this point in his career, and could push 15-20 goals annually, he’s going to be richer in his 30’s than he was in his 20’s.

LINE 2 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 10:13 together, 4-4 Corsi, 1-1 shots, no goals and no HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira brings size and aggression to the line, but he didn’t accomplish a lot five-on-five on the evening. He did impact the game with 2:10 on the PK.

Riley Sheahan won four of nine faceoffs at five-on-five and spent 1:10 on the PK. Tippett is going to use him a lot on that 3-4 line rotation this year, Oilers fans should hope he can score 10 goals in the role.

Josh Archibald is an excellent skater and he plays a physical game. That’s a good skill set for the Oilers on this line. His only shot of the game came shorthanded (1:18). This line did a good job of shot suppression, that will be their role all year long.

LINE 3 Anton Burdasov-Ryan Nugent Hopkins-Sam Gagner. In 9:16 five-on-five, line went 9-1 Corsi, 5-1 shots, 0-1 goals and 0-1 HDSC.

Anton Burdasov is an intriguing hockey player. He’s big, can skate, has a howitzer for a shot, and can pass the puck. NO IDEA what he is, but first impressions were good.

RNH was quality. He scored a quality SH goal, went 5-4 on the dot and played 1:46 on the PK. It’s easy to look past him with 97 and 29 on the team, but Nuge is an important part of this team.

Sam Gagner had a good night, scoring a goal and adding two assists. Four shots, 2-2 on the dot. Tippett’s using him as a top six forward, and as long as the outscoring continues (he’s at 76 percent five-on-five shot differential in 29 five-on-five minutes this fall, with a 4-1 goal differential) he’ll be fine. Tippett appears able to draw quality work from him, mind these are early days.

LINE 4 Alex Chiasson-Colby Cave-Patrick Russell played 7:46, 11-5 Corsi for and 8-2 shots. The line went 1-0 goals, 2-0 HDSC and could be a line opening night.

Alex Chiasson scored a goal on a long-range tip, had three shots on goal and continued what has been a quietly effective preseason. I like him for the bottom-six and credit to Tippett he hasn’t tried to shoehorn Chiasson on to a skill line.

Colby Cave had another good game, picked up an assist, won faceoffs and played a strong defensive game. At this point Gaetan Haas would have to do something fairly special to win the job.

Patrick Russell has done everything in his power to win a job with the Oilers, textbook training camp. Had a great look via a Chiasson pass to the slot later in the game. I think he might stick.

PAIRING 1 Darnell Nurse-Adam Larsson played 19:40 together (all numbers five-on-five), going 13-10 Corsi, 7-6 shots, 3-0 goals and 2-2 HDSC.

Darnell Nurse had two assists, two shots on goal and was skating well all night long. He also had three giveaways and that’s too many for a shutdown defender.

Adam Larsson had one assist and a shot, he seems more mobile and willing to wheel up the ice, and his passing is better to my eye a year ago. The big question on this line surrounds outlet passing, if Larsson can improve over his own past it would be a huge help.

PAIRING 2 William Lagesson-Ethan Bear played 9:19 together, 9-3 Corsi, no goals, 6-0 shots and no HDSC. Tippett put the pairing together after a disastrous start (Lagesson-Bouchard, Manning-Bear).

William Lagesson struggled early, but settled down and had a good night overall. One of his main advantages over the rest of the group (imo) is Tippett’s confidence in him on the PK. Lagesson has played 3:40 on the 4-on-5 in the first two games, Bear and Bouchard aren’t close to that level in preseason.

Ethan Bear also had early issues, but settled down and delivered a strong final 40. His two assists are a positive and his overall camp performance quality. The only question is will it be enough, and that answer is yet to come.

PAIRING 3 Brandon Manning-Evan Bouchard played 8:19 together, 7-0 shots, no goals but 4-0 HDSC. Impressive time together and a mountain of credit to Tippett for flipping pairs.

Brandon Manning had two giveaways and some wobbly coverage last night, but he and Bouchard had a strong 8 minutes together. A monster hit early, lots of wobble in coverage when paired with Bear. People keep saying he has to go to the minors to save cap, but when you replace him, even with an inexpensive option, the overall savings are very small. I don’t think he’ll make the team, but let’s be fair this won’t be a lot about cap savings.

Evan Bouchard struggled early and then settled in. He wasn’t as much a factor as in previous showings, but the role he was playing was more about defending than scoring on the power play. He was too passive in some areas, but I like his coverage on the rush and he isn’t shy along the boards. My guess is they send him down but this is going to be close.

Mikko Koskinen let in a soft goal and then played well, stopping 18 of 20, .900. He made some good stops and hopefully everyone settles down and we see the Koskinen-Smith tandem at work next week.

POSSESSION

Early days, but this Oilers team is doing well in possession. Using Natural Stat Trick and Corsi for five-on-five, this is how Tippett’s Oilers are working out:

  • Game 1 v. Winnipeg: 61-37 62.2 percent
  • Game 2 v. Vancouver: 72-30 70.6 percent
  • Game 3 v. Vancouver: 33-35 48.5 percent
  • Game 4 v. Calgary: 46-29 61.3 percent

Oilers Corsi for five-on-five after four games: 212-131, 61.8 percent.

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180 Responses to "Ball of Confusion"

  1. BONE207 says:

    I didn’t see the game but knowing that we fielded a better line up shows on the scoreboard. I’m ok with playing all the young D as they need the experience & the team needs to know who’s staying. Goaltending scares the shit out of me…oh wait…it’s the coffee.

  2. Pouzar says:

    Nygard helped his cause big time.
    The Birdman has some serious skill. Hope he makes it.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    Will the Oilers be making some more cuts before its wheels up to Kelowna?

    Has Cave pushed Haas off the team (maybe one more chance for Haas)? Cave would need to be exposed to waivers but Haas is on an ELC and waiver exempt (and did say he’s accept a shortish assignment in the name of getting used to the ice/game).

    Finally a plus game for Nygard in the top 6 even though he didn’t cash (although got credit for the Nurse goal). Just one game but is there chemistry with Drai? Could this push Kass to the bottom 6 (although he looked good to). Could this be the trigger to “split” McDavid and Drai? Way to early.

    Does Bear have the upper hand on the winnable D job? He can’t be #7 though. Does Persson or even Matt Benning (if he doesn’t get his game together) start as #7?

    Is there any sort of reasonable production by Gagner that would end the verbal about him not making the team? 5 points in 2 exhibition games – yes early exhibition games do mean little but its happened and its on the heels of top 6 production away from McDavid last year.

    Go Oilers!

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Just looked at the replay of the Nurse/Nygard goal again and it was Nygard and not Nurse. In fact it wasn’t a terrible goal on Gillies but a real nice and slick play by Nygard.

    He went forhand/backhand in tight with the puck.

  5. Mr DeBakey says:

    In the spring I was pimping KHL Free Agent Ilya Mikheyev, he signed with the Leaves. Last night I saw the following headline at TSN,
    “Matthews on KHL import Mikheyev: ”He plays a lot like Datsyuk”

    Hah!

    ** ** **

    So, with dozens of former NCAA Div 1 QBs floating around, many with some NFL experience, the best the Eskimos could find to play back-up is a guy who can’t throw accurately over 10 yards?

    Huh?

  6. Pescador says:

    Thank you for the post game breakdown Lowetide,
    I watched the game on my phone (I couldn’t figure out my stupid smart tv).
    I enjoy reading your summaries immensely.
    Do you have every forward that played last night making the team except for possibly Burdasov?
    With McDavid, Neal & Jurco that’s 14 forwards & we’re done.
    Nurse – Larrson
    Klefbom – Perrson
    Russell – Benning
    Lagesson
    Fin.

  7. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Will the Oilers be making some more cuts before its wheels up to Kelowna?

    Has Cave pushed Haas off the team (maybe one more chance for Haas)? Cave would need to be exposed to waivers but Haas is on an ELC and waiver exempt (and did say he’s accept a shortish assignment in the name of getting used to the ice/game).

    Finally a plus game for Nygard in the top 6 even though he didn’t cash (although got credit for the Nurse goal).Just one game but is there chemistry with Drai?Could this push Kass to the bottom 6 (although he looked good to).Could this be the trigger to “split” McDavid and Drai?Way to early.

    Does Bear have the upper hand on the winnable D job? He can’t be #7 though.Does Persson or even Matt Benning (if he doesn’t get his game together) start as #7?

    Is there any sort of reasonable production by Gagner that would end the verbal about him not making the team? 5 points in 2 exhibition games – yes early exhibition games do mean little but its happened and its on the heels of top 6 production away from McDavid last year.

    Go Oilers!

    Gagner is making the most of his opportunities and has a history with the coach. LT was bang-on regarding his skill, but with an emphasis on D and his slow boots, IMO he has to play top 6. If that is the case I think his only spot is 1RW. I am expecting Burdasov to take that spot with Kassian making the “heavy line” with Sheahan and JJ.

    Not 100% sold on Archibald, he hasn’t impressed me as I had hoped. Nygard has shown well with his speed, but he appears to have hands of stone. His wheels makes him an intriguing player and I’d like to see a Nygard-Haas-Archibald or “speed line” tried next week.

    I am thinking Jurco has a leg up and wonder if we see Jurco-Nuge-Neal tried next week.

    I thought Russell was going to make this team before TC and I think he’s got a spot, I thought Joey G would show well too, but maybe we see him later in the years. I think he’s a good player, not sure why he looked so invisible, but some players are slow starters, apparently. Bakersfield is going to be a top 3 AHL team I bet.

    The D is a mystery to me, I am thinking Benning is on the bubble based on his Vancouver outing. Bear will be kept over Bouch, but who knows for sure how they will play it. One thing for certain, and I didn’t know this until the last 2 viewings…..I am not a Manning fan.

  8. Twinkle Mo' Fo' Toes says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Just looked at the replay of the Nurse/Nygard goal again and it was Nygard and not Nurse.In fact it wasn’t a terrible goal on Gillies but a real nice and slick play by Nygard.

    He went forhand/backhand in tight with the puck.

    That’s what I thought I saw last night, didn’t see the overhead replay, but didn’t see it go in on the Nurse shot, so I was confused.

    Usually a player knows when they’ve scored. Anyway, good to know the old C-1, A-1 orbs still function.

  9. Jethro Tull says:

    Gagner, 5pts in 2 games: Any doubt he’s not on the team with that production?

    Morody, 3pts in 2 games: Sending him down was the right thing to do.

    Nothing like double standards. They’re twice as good.

  10. Jethro Tull says:

    Twinkle Mo’ Fo’ Toes,

    Some good points. But Gagner 1RW? Yeah. No.

  11. dustrock says:

    Nice to have some skating.

    If Larsson can stop the “fire off the boards” and rediscover what made him get compared to a young Lidstrom (seems hilarious at this point) it will be yuge for the team.

    Might be the first time since 2006 I can say D “corps” and not “corpse”. Nice!

  12. Jordan says:

    The game is as really hard to watch through most of the first half of the game. Drain was asleep at the wheel and no one else seemed to be able to do much other than clear the puck for a line change.

    Watching the Nuge and Nygard goals was honestly surprising for me. That PK goal shifted the momentum firmly to the Oilers, but that only lelvled the playing field, as it had been firmly in Calgary’s favour until then. As the second period was ending, I was still expecting the flames to score a quick one and reclaim the momentum.

    It didn’t happen. The Oilers kept scoring, and Koski closed the door.

    Good arrows or a bad night from an opponent’s suspect goalie prospect?

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nygard/Drai chemistry unicorns:

    Jurco/McDavid/Gagner
    Nygard/Drai/Kassian
    Burdasov/Nuge/Neal
    Khaira/Sheahan/Archibald

    Granlund/Cave

    OK, a bit too early to give Burdasov a contract but, if he doesn’t make it, i’d love Khaira on that line, move Granlund to 4LW and Russell on the team.

    Gagner is too high but, well, the world isn’t perfect and, frankly, he has smarts and skill – offensive IQ is the primary trait to play with McDavid. No “puck getter” on that line but Jurco has shown to be good on the boards to my eye.

    Haas should accept 3-4 weeks in Bakersfield and we’ll see where we are.

    This will never happen.

  14. hunter1909 says:

    Come on You assholes! Time to step up or eff off!!

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

  15. Woogie63 says:

    I like

    Nuge-McDavid-Kassian
    Nygard-Draisaitl-Neal

    Better than

    Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
    Nygard-Hopkins-Neal

  16. Woogie63 says:

    Bear gets better in the NHL and Bouchard gets better in the AHL.

  17. Lowetide says:

    Pescador:
    Thank you for the post game breakdown Lowetide,
    I watched the game on my phone (I couldn’t figure out my stupid smart tv).
    I enjoy reading your summaries immensely.
    Do you have every forward that played last night makingthe team except for possibly Burdasov?
    With McDavid, Neal & Jurco that’s 14 forwards & we’re done.
    Nurse – Larrson
    Klefbom – Perrson
    Russell – Benning
    Lagesson
    Fin.

    I think Patrick Russell is close, it would be mildly surprising to see him sent down.

  18. Bag of Pucks says:

    “As long as Sam Gagner continues to outscore…”

    Did you ever feel like you’re caught in a time loop?

  19. Lowetide says:

    hunter1909:
    Come on You assholes! Time to step up or eff off!!

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

    Lowetide: 88 points. Goals for JP: 12
    Mrs. Lowetide: 95 points. Goals for JP: 15

  20. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    “As long as Sam Gagner continues to outscore…”

    Did you ever feel like you’re caught in a time loop?

    Look, if this turns into a Rob Schremp should be in the NHL today thread, I’m blaming you!

  21. Bag of Pucks says:

    The prediction is meaningless cos I didn’t post it (this month has been Uber hectic), but I really liked Colby Cave as a dark horse coming into camp. Thought he showed well as a role player last season and was very much hoping he’d put up a good fight against some of the hyped new additions. New is just new. It doesn’t always equate to better, but try to convince your wife of that when you’re standing in Benjamin Moore.

    Having some found money, leftover from the Chiarelli regime, contributing to this season’s roster would undoubtedly aggravate a specific niche of the fanbase. So that sounds fun too.

  22. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: Look, if this turns into a Rob Schremp should be in the NHL today thread, I’m blaming you!

    #overRipe

  23. Oilpower says:

    Edmonton 96 points.
    Jp 20 goals

  24. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: Look, if this turns into a Rob Schremp should be in the NHL today thread, I’m blaming you!

    I hear Robbie is doing well these days. He’s built a shinebox you can park a Winnebago in.

  25. yeraslob says:

    Can’t remember where I seen it but, wasn’t there talk of the coaching staff wanting more WC Larsson and less Oilers Larsson?

  26. Professor Q says:

    yeraslob:
    Can’t remember where I seen it but, wasn’t there talk of the coaching staff wanting more WC Larsson and less Oilers Larsson?

    Oh, absolutely. There has been for a while. International Larsson is a much more offensive player than NHL Larsson.

  27. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Lowetide: 88 points. Goals for JP: 12
    Mrs. Lowetide: 95 points. Goals for JP: 15

    Deathmarch Lives for Mrs. Lowetide’s predictions!

  28. Bag of Pucks says:

    yeraslob:
    Can’t remember where I seen it but, wasn’t there talk of the coaching staff wanting more WC Larsson and less Oilers Larsson?

    Water Closet Larsson?

    I know we flushed Hall for a lesser player but that still seems like a pretty shitty nickname.

  29. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Nygard/Drai chemistry unicorns:

    Jurco/McDavid/Gagner
    Nygard/Drai/Kassian
    Burdasov/Nuge/Neal
    Khaira/Sheahan/Archibald

    Granlund/Cave

    OK, a bit too early to give Burdasov a contract but, if he doesn’t make it, i’d love Khaira on that line, move Granlund to 4LW and Russell on the team.

    Gagner is too high but, well, the world isn’t perfect and, frankly, he has smarts and skill – offensive IQ is the primary trait to play with McDavid.No “puck getter” on that line but Jurco has shown to be good on the boards to my eye.

    Haas should accept 3-4 weeks in Bakersfield and we’ll see where we are.

    This will never happen.

    Sooo…. where did Chiasson and his $2.2M AAV go?

  30. Eh Team says:

    Twinkle Mo’ Fo’ Toes: I am thinking Benning is on the bubble based on his Vancouver outing.

    So, Benning has played over 200 NHL games now, and we are making a decision based on 15 minutes in an exhibition game? Give your head a shake.

  31. Pouzar says:

    Elliotte Friedman
    @FriedgeHNIC
    · 5m
    All waivers from yesterday cleared

  32. Fuhr and Lowething. says:

    I like(would like to see)

    Nygard McD Burdasov
    Jurco Drai Neal
    Chiasson Nuge Gagner
    Khaira Sheahan Kassian

    I understand that McDavid and Drai are magic together, but Connor is literally the best player in the world that even if his wingers are ok-ish he should elevate their games enough to still dominate.

    I don’t understand why there is such spprehension to try it out, if there’s any way that we could separate the 3Cs and have them dominate lesser competition I can’t imagine that not being best rather than having all the eggs in one basket.

    If even just one of the new wingers can form some kind of chemistry with McDavid we could literally have unicorns.

    I keep beating the drum of Nygard/McDavid because I just feel that with Nygards’s speed they will just give opposing team’s D absolute fits.

  33. Bag of Pucks says:

    My new favourite author is Chuck Klosterman. Smart smart guy that I think would appeal to many of the posters here given the subject matter that typically resonates with us.

    Just finished, “But What If We’re Wrong?” and he summarizes so eloquently an argument I’ve made badly on a couple occasions, so I just had to post the passage verbatim to give this reasoning its due:

    “I insert the word “almost” because there’s at least one thing analytics always gets wrong: they refuse to acknowledge the existence of clutch shooting or clutch hitting. Math tells us that being clutch is a myth and that the performance of athletes placed in identical clutch scenarios will roughly equate with however they performed in any normal scenario. This is wrong. For one thing, every clutch situation is unique and distinct so there’s no way to compare any two real life scenarios, even if all the technical details are identical. But the larger reason is that absolutely everyone who has played sports at any level knows that clutchness is real to depth that would make it become real (even if it wasn’t) for purely psychological reasons. I’m not the type who would ever argue that you can’t understand pro basketball if you haven’t played pro basketball. That argument is dumb. But you probably do need to have competed in a physical sport somewhere at some level (even if it was just an especially serious summer of Little League). The recognition that certain people respond better under pressure will happen instantly and you’ll never try to convince yourself otherwise.”

  34. Tokyooiler says:

    hunter1909,

    TokyoOiler: 91 points. Goals for Poolparty: 19.

  35. OriginalPouzar says:

    Not that it was a concern but each of Currie, Gambardella, Lowe and Malone cleared waivers.

    What a disappointment camp for Joe G. – P. Russell ate his lunch.

  36. Reja says:

    Crazy Pedestrian: Sooo…. where did Chiasson and his $2.2M AAV go?

    Everyone forgets about Chase unless they’re ragging on him. I’ll take his 15-20 goals this year thank you very much.

  37. hags9k says:

    hunter1909,

    100pts, 20 goals.

  38. Roosty24 says:

    hunter1909,

    Hi and thanks for this. I say 95 points …..19 for Poolparty
    hunter1909,

    Hi and thanks for this 95 and …19 for Poolparty.

  39. Cassandra says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    No one thinks there is no such thing as being clutch. The argument is that by and large, you can’t tell who is clutch or not on the basis of past clutchness.

    They are different kinds of claims. Refuting the former does not refute the latter.

    I would bet quite a bit for instance, that you could measure clutch putting in golf. But I know you can’t measure clutch hitting in baseball, which is more or less indistinguishable from narrative pushing.

  40. jonrmcleod says:

    92 points
    18 goals

  41. Bag of Pucks says:

    Cassandra:
    Bag of Pucks,

    No one thinks there is no such thing as being clutch.

    Not true. There is posters here that don’t believe in it. Woodguy springs to mind for one.

    I think the issue is less narrative driven and more data quality centric. To analyze this, you’d first need an acceptable and consistent standard for what constitutes a clutch situation. Unfortunately, those ‘TSN turning points’ are very elastic and difficult to quantify, nevermind build a comparative framework upon.

  42. wood99 says:

    hunter1909,

    Oilers 86/Puljujarvi 14 and thanks for doing this again.

  43. yeraslob says:

    Professor Q,

    Perhaps previous coaches only saw stay at home defenseman. Miscast a bit IMO. Hoping he gets more of a green light this year. Predicting 30+ pts!
    Kass was also miscast. I think he will surprise. 50 pts for him in a contract year.
    Dare to dream, eh.

  44. JimmyV1965 says:

    Fuhr and Lowething.:
    I like(would like to see)

    Nygard McD Burdasov
    Jurco Drai Neal
    Chiasson Nuge Gagner
    Khaira Sheahan Kassian

    I understand that McDavid and Drai are magic together,but Connor is literally the best player in the world that even if his wingers are ok-ish he should elevate their games enough to still dominate.

    I don’t understand why there is such spprehension to try it out, if there’s any way that we could separate the 3Cs and have them dominate lesser competition I can’t imagine that not being best rather than having all the eggs in one basket.

    If even just one of the new wingers can form some kind of chemistry with McDavid we could literally have unicorns.

    I keep beating the drum of Nygard/McDavid because I just feel that with Nygards’s speed they will just give opposing team’s D absolute fits.

    We can’t separate the three Cs onto different lines because our wingers simply aren’t good enough. This team has three top six forwards. Dropping one to the third line will not help them dominate lesser competition. It will water down what little talent we have. The best this team can hope for is that Neal rediscovers his game for another year and that one of the other new guys somehow finds a spark, giving us a reasonable facsimile of two lines.

  45. BONE207 says:

    hunter1909:
    Come on You assholes! Time to step up or eff off!!

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Oh Hunter…you snake oil salesman…uh, I mean Snake Charmer you…
    Door to door vacuum sales 101.
    LT must have tutored you…Hah…

  46. Pescador says:

    Roosty24:
    hunter1909,

    Hi and thanks for this. I say 95 points …..19 for Poolparty
    hunter1909,

    Hi and thanks for this 95 and …19 forPoolparty.

    1 entry only pal, contest is hard enough as it is

  47. dcsj says:

    hunter1909

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Ok, my guess is 91 points and 16 goals for Pool

  48. Pescador says:

    Lowetide: I think Patrick Russell is close, it would be mildly surprising to see him sent down.

    Meh,
    P. Russell 15th forward, still only 22 skaters

  49. JimmyV1965 says:

    Cassandra:
    Bag of Pucks,

    No one thinks there is no such thing as being clutch.The argument is that by and large, you can’t tell who is clutch or not on the basis of past clutchness.

    They are different kinds of claims.Refuting the former does not refute the latter.

    I would bet quite a bit for instance, that you could measure clutch putting in golf.But I know you can’t measure clutch hitting in baseball, which is more or less indistinguishable from narrative pushing.

    Hitting with runners in scoring position measures clutch in baseball. Does it not?

  50. BONE207 says:

    yeraslob:
    Can’t remember where I seen it but, wasn’t there talk of the coaching staff wanting more WC Larsson and less Oilers Larsson?

    Saw it…

    Tippet said it. I hope to seen it too…ha

  51. Pescador says:

    Woogie63:
    I like

    Nuge-McDavid-Kassian
    Nygard-Draisaitl-Neal

    Better than

    Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
    Nygard-Hopkins-Neal

    Interesting,
    Do you think Nygard has outplayed Jurco?

  52. godot10 says:

    Woogie63:
    Bear gets better in the NHL and Bouchard gets better in the AHL.

    Exactly.

    But Bear still has to beat out Persson and Benning.

  53. Get Bengt says:

    Put me down for Oilers: 94 Points & Jesse: 19 Goals
    Thanks

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Puljujarvi with an assist on the OT winner today.

    Skelfeeta is up 3-0 nearing the end of the 2nd.

    No points for Broberg and he hasn’t been on the ice for any of the goal. One shot on net. TOI suggests 2nd pairing with Berglund today.

  55. Rugbypig says:

    hunter1909,

    Thank-you Hunter
    Oilers 91 pts (sadly – I hope they get more)
    Jesse 21 goals – he has the skill, hopefully he “loses” the “stubborn”

  56. doctoreye says:

    hunter1909,

    Hunter…90pts and 15 for JP

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jesse leads Karpat in scoring with 1G/4A/5P in 5 games – he is just plus 1 though.

  58. jtblack says:

    What’s the overall sentiment out there on this Oilers team?

    I am worried. Then I get a bit optimistic. Then past scars show up. Then I get really worried.

    #BasketCase

    #BeenBurnedTooManyTimes

  59. Theil says:

    sigh… 87 points for the Oil, another season on the outside looking in
    JP scores 7 before he is traded and comes back to the NHL

    Theil continues to suffer from Stockholm Syndrome with this team

  60. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    hunter1909:
    Come on You assholes! Time to step up or eff off!!

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

    I am guessing Oilers 92 pts, JP 15 goals.
    Thank you!

  61. drglen says:

    Benning will rebound. But I’m not sure why Persson is getting a free pass. Bouchard should go down…

    Bear should make the team imo

    Lagesson would be a good 6-7.

    I really liked Burdasov… . is he better than Chaisson? Maybe. I recall Chaisson saying that when he was scoring ,guys were giving him space, then starting taking away his space.

    Nygarrd is a lock now.

    Geez you have to wonder… is Leon actually a center and does the camp and emerging roster now point to Mcd Leon Nuge as three centers with three potentially scoring lines?

    Khaira didn’t look good last night.. whole ‘third line’? didn’t look good but maybe they need a really intense game.

  62. razor says:

    With Cave and Haas spinning their wheels and some forwards coming in to grab spots, I think there is a lot of merit to splitting our top 3Cs down the middle for unicorns. Drai and McDavid are magic, but having three scoring lines and one shutdown line makes a lot of sense from here. Also when going gets gets tough in the third and you need a goal, you could put Drai and McDavid out there and sit some guys.

    My lines:
    Jurco McDavid Kassian
    Burdasov Nuge Neal
    Nygard Draisaitl Chiasson
    Khaira Sheahan Archibald
    Russell/ Granlund

  63. drglen says:

    I’ll take Burdasov over JP… I’ll say that.

    Oilers 94 ( smith gets hot)
    JP 14

  64. drglen says:

    Pescador,

    I personally think he has, but, Jurco can play 2-4 and gives a certain edge and still a threat to score. i’d like him on the team.

    Maybe it’s coming down to team defense.. .

  65. Jaxon says:

    ?

    Nygard – McDavid – Burdasov
    Jurco – Draisaitl – Kassian
    Khaira – Nugent-Hopkins – Neal
    Chiasson – Sheahan – Gagner

  66. Jaxon says:

    JimmyV1965: Cassandra:
    Bag of Pucks,

    No one thinks there is no such thing as being clutch.The argument is that by and large, you can’t tell who is clutch or not on the basis of past clutchness.

    They are different kinds of claims.Refuting the former does not refute the latter.

    I would bet quite a bit for instance, that you could measure clutch putting in golf.But I know you can’t measure clutch hitting in baseball, which is more or less indistinguishable from narrative pushing.

    Hitting with runners in scoring position measures clutch in baseball. Does it not?

    On Natural Start Trick, you can separate 5v5 within 1 goal situations for the last 3 seasons with minimum 700 minutes and see who scores the most per minute. That would give you some idea of performing in clutch situations (game is on the line within 1). Guess who it is. His name rhymes with Honour Stick-Save-id.

  67. nelson88 says:

    Lowetide: Lowetide: 88 points. Goals for JP: 12
    Mrs. Lowetide: 95 points. Goals for JP: 15

    Mrs. Lowetide proving once again why she is the brains of the operation. It’s understandable why you can’t believe LT but your still wrong 😁

  68. JimmyV1965 says:

    razor:
    With Cave and Haas spinning their wheels and some forwards coming in to grab spots, I think there is a lot of merit to splitting our top 3Cs down the middle for unicorns. Drai and McDavid are magic, but having three scoring lines and one shutdown line makes a lot of sense from here. Also when going gets gets tough in the third and you need a goal, you could put Drai and McDavid out there and sit some guys.

    My lines:
    Jurco McDavid Kassian
    Burdasov Nuge Neal
    Nygard Draisaitl Chiasson
    Khaira Sheahan Archibald
    Russell/ Granlund

    I can understand people wanting to split up McDavid and Drai, but having three scoring lines is pure fantasy. Not trying to pick on you, but I’ve seen this a few times lately. The only proven top six winger in your lineup is Neal and he’s coming off a 7 goal campaign.

  69. Munny says:

    Just a reminder that if you are in a position to, you can help defray Hunter’s Death March costs with a small $1 donation to the Paypal on his website here:

    https://oilersdeathmarch.com/

    A whole season of Bataan for only $1!

    Thank you in advance!

  70. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon: On Natural Start Trick, you can separate 5v5 within 1 goal situations for the last 3 seasons with minimum 700 minutes and see who scores the most per minute. That would give you some idea of performing in clutch situations (game is on the line within 1). Guess who it is. His name rhymes with Honour Stick-Save-id.

    Is it Omar Buchnevich? Can’t be. His first name is Pavel. IDK who the hell you’re talking about.

  71. Pescador says:

    JimmyV1965: I can understand people wanting to split up McDavid and Drai, but having three scoring lines is pure fantasy. Not trying to pick on you, but I’ve seen this a few times lately. The only proven top six winger in your lineup is Neal and he’s coming off a 7 goal campaign.

    Exactly, forget 3 scoring lines
    I don’t even think we have 2.

  72. rickithebear says:

    Last year:
    Mcdavid 1465 EVTOI
    Drai 24 evg – Mcdavid 24 evg 888; 1.62 evg/60 each

    In what world do you give less EVTOI to a pair that is 3.24 evg/60.
    That would be brutal usage.

    From sept 5 notes.
    Last yr: C median changed from last 3 yr avg.
    #1 – 31 C 1468 ev min – 1221 ev min; 1314 ev min median
    #32 – #62 C 1220 evmin – 1085 ev min ; 1143 ev min median
    #63 – #93 C 1085 ev min – 994 ev min; 1045 ev min median

    Mcdavid 1465 ev min; FO 46.82%; Off FO ZS 62.47%
    RNH 1265 ev min; FO 46.19%; Off FO ZS 47.78%
    Sheahan 931 ev min; FO 52.47%; Off FO ZS 33.98%; Bottom 20 of 411 fwd, FO ZS; DZ eater
    Brodziak 692 ev min; FO 53.38%; Off FO ZS 31.75%
    Cave 577 ev min; FO 50.70%; Off FO ZS 43.45%;

    1 – #31 LW 1280 ev min – 1017 ev min; 1100 ev min median
    32 – #62 LW1012 ev min – 862 ev min; 940 ev min median
    63 – #93 LW 861 ev min – 703 ev min; 780 ev min median

    1 – #31 RW 1415 ev min – 1009 ev min; 1111 ev min median
    32 – #62 RW 1007 ev min – 806 ev min; 937 ev min median
    63 – #93 RW 805 ev min – 490 ev min; 687 ev min median

    Drai 1483 ev min FO 51.19%; Off FO ZS 53.92%
    Neal LW 1040 ev min avg in 16/17 – 17/18
    Kassian RW 1063 ev min last yr. Off FO ZS 53.68%
    Chaisson RW 1003 ev min last yr; Off FO ZS 49.74%
    Granlund LW/ RW 854 ev min last yr; Off FO ZS 50.00%
    Archibald RW 808 ev min last yr; OFf FO ZS 45.98%; bottom 90 FO ZS, DZ eater
    Khaira LW 661 ev min last yr; Off FO ZS 46.22%
    Gagner RW EDM 317 ev min FO 50.00%; Off FO ZS 44.00%; 936 evmin 2 yrs before that;
    Jurco LW 17-18 354 ev min; Off FO ZS 39.02%, bottom 40 FO ZS, DZ eater

    Schiefle 24 evg – wheeler 16 evg 1421:31 EVTOI together. 40 evg/23.692 60 min set. 1.69evg/60 pair.

    Why would you play Drai – Mcdavid less than WPG pair.
    The only reason would be what I stated earlier.
    Giving Drai 1000 min ( fringe top 32) on wing with Mcd and Drai playing the other 480-485 as 3 rd C every game.
    1000/82 12:12 per gm winger
    483/82 5:53 per gm 3C

    Would prefer 67 evg from 1241 of Drai & Mcd together an extra 19 evg.

    Unless Drai playing 3C yields 3.24+ evg/60 pair with another winger. Not likely!

    Christ 12+ yrs of top WOWY pairs.
    And
    Everyone thinks their guess is better than WOWY evidence.

  73. jtblack says:

    nelson88: Mrs. Lowetide proving once again why she is the brains of the operation.It’s understandable why you can’t believe LT but your still wrong

    how do you see this team grabbing an extra 17 POINTS?

  74. Munny says:

    Bob Stauffer‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer · 1h1 hour ago

    Still a week of pre-season left.

    Oilers D shaping up like this:
    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-Persson
    Russell-Benning

    7th D?

    Bouchard strong possibility to percolate in Bakersfield.
    I have Bear slightly ahead of Lagesson.
    Bear reported in great shape and can move the puck.

  75. Fuhr and Lowething. says:

    JimmyV1965: We can’t separate the three Cs onto different lines because our wingers simply aren’t good enough. This team has three top six forwards. Dropping one to the third line will not help them dominate lesser competition. It will water down what little talent we have. The best this team can hope for is that Neal rediscovers his game for another year and that one of the other new guys somehow finds a spark, giving us a reasonable facsimile of two lines.

    You’re probably right, but I’d still like to see it a bit in the preseason.

    Also, let us enjoy the kool-aid a little bit, it is never more sugary than this time of year! 😂😂😂

  76. McNuge93 says:

    Munny:
    Bob Stauffer‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer · 1h1 hour ago


    Still a week of pre-season left.

    Oilers D shaping up like this:
    Nurse-Larsson
    Klefbom-Persson
    Russell-Benning

    7th D?

    Bouchard strong possibility to percolate in Bakersfield.
    I have Bear slightly ahead of Lagesson.
    Bear reported in great shape and can move the puck.

    What about Manning? I thought Holland said he didn’t want a young prospect in the press box. Although if Benning struggles early and Bear continues to look good maybe Bear plays early in the year and Benning sits for a bit?

  77. hunter1909 says:

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

  78. Munny says:

    McNuge93,

    Manning definitely has the inside track for 7D, although they might want to see if they can get lucky by waiving him.

    Of the prospects, Lagesson is the only one I’d think they’d be willing to sit for stretches in the 7 hole. (Because he’s the eldest of them)

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull:
    Gagner, 5pts in 2 games: Any doubt he’s not on the team with that production?

    Morody, 3pts in 2 games: Sending him down was the right thing to do.

    Nothing like double standards. They’re twice as good.

    1) 5 points in 2 games is much different than 3 points in 2 games – extrapolate that if you want to compare the two players.

    Of course, I also expressed more than just the exhibition production and noted Gagner’s history of production including scoring at top 6 rates on the Oilers away from McDavid last – something that is an absolute must for this team.

    2) I never said it was the “right move” to send Marody down and noted surprise at the assignment. Our conversation regarding the move had to do with not agreeing about the massive egregiousness of the move and it souring the relationship with the 22 year old Marody beyond repair. I understand the reasoning behind the move and am fine with it but never stated it was the right move. It was definitely not a horrendous mistake that your posts imply it is.

  80. bendelson says:

    Fun game last night. Ugly until the Nuge buried one on the PK, and the worm turned.
    Sure, it was only preseason but a ‘date’ night victory was a welcome sight, to be sure! It’s a brave new world people! Anything is possible…

  81. Johnny Larue says:

    hunter1909,

    Oilers 98 JP 15

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lowetide: Look, if this turns into a Rob Schremp should be in the NHL today thread, I’m blaming you!

    He’s only 33 and one season removed from dominating the Austrian league offensively for Salzburg.

  83. JimmyV1965 says:

    Fuhr and Lowething.: You’re probably right, but I’d still like to see it a bit in the preseason.

    Also, let us enjoy the kool-aid a little bit, it is never more sugary than this time of year!

    Nice post. I’m with you on the drink. We’re probably all kool-aid aholics here.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    yeraslob:
    Can’t remember where I seen it but, wasn’t there talk of the coaching staff wanting more WC Larsson and less Oilers Larsson?

    Yes, can’t remember if it was Tip or Holland but that was within the last week or so.

    In order to get more “WC Larsson”, the Oilers may need to get more “Oliver-Ekman Larsson”.

  85. JimmyV1965 says:

    bendelson:
    Fun game last night.Ugly until the Nuge buried one on the PK, and the worm turned.
    Sure, it was only preseason but a ‘date’ night victory was a welcome sight, to be sure!It’s a brave new world people!Anything is possible…

    The last two games are fascinating in a way. Both show how bad goaltending can tear down a team. The losers in both games were playing well until their goalies crapped the bed. As a result, the players in front of them started playing very poorly.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    CrazyPedestrian: Sooo…. where did Chiasson and his $2.2M AAV go?

    Dammit – apparantly out of my mind already.

    Traded with to a team that has a camp injury to a middle sixer?

    Realistically, in Burdasov’s slot (although I’d prefer Khaira there and Chiasson on the 4th).

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    I am a Matt Benning supporter and refuse to put too much stock in to early exhibition games from “veterans”, but there may be a non-zero chance of something like this:

    Nurse/Larsson
    Klefbom/Persson
    Lagesson/Russell

    Benning

    OR

    Nurse/Larson
    Klefbom/Persson
    Russell/Bear

    Benning

    Unlikely as Matt will play better.

  88. bendelson says:

    JimmyV1965: The last two games are fascinating in a way. Both show how bad goaltending can tear down a team. The losers in both games were playing well until their goalies crapped the bed. As a result, the players in front of them started playing very poorly.

    Same as it ever was?

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lots of community members have (and do) want to see Drai playing center and separated from McDavid.

    There are clear arguments for it (and against).

    At the same time, I don’t think a plus game from Drai as center in the first week of exhibition against a flames team with no Monohan, Gaudreau, Gio, Tkachuk, Brodie, Andersson, Hamonic, etc. is going to alter the coach clear plan to play McDavid and Drai together.

    We have all seen Drai dominate in stretches as a center, against legit playoff teams. I’m sure Tippett has seen that as well, I don’t think anything Drai does as a center in the next 10 days changes anything.

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m starting to get goosebumps thinking back to those conversations from a year ago when we looked in to the future and hoped that our top 3 left wingers would be:

    Jurco
    Burdasov
    Nygard

    Truth be told, I do think it “could” work but, damn, hurry up Tyler, Maksi, Ostaf, Lavoie and, come on d-men, pop, we need some real currency!

  91. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I am a Matt Benning supporter and refuse to put too much stock in to early exhibition games from “veterans”, but there may be a non-zero chance of something like this:

    Nurse/Larsson
    Klefbom/Persson
    Lagesson/Russell

    Benning

    I think if you switch Persson and Benning, that may be the opening night D.

  92. Fuhr and Lowething. says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1) 5 points in 2 games is much different than 3 points in 2 games – extrapolate that if you want to compare the two players.

    I just wish we could get back the 8ppg Gagner.

  93. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Pescador: Exactly, forget 3 scoring lines
    I don’t even think we have 2.

    I think Drai can drive the 2nd line better than Nuge…
    Nuge-McD-Kass
    Jurco/Nygard-Drai-Neal

    But who knows right now. Still too crazy. What if Burd man can progress in a linear fashion in the next week?? Maybe he could be in the mix in the top 6.

    The bottom 6 is also totally up in the air.

    I think, all else being approximately equal, we will see them keep the older established players in the opening line up first and anyone that can clear waivers will go down…then adjustments over the first few weeks based on performance.

  94. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    – this writer and your post is so clutch. Like you just wanted it more. It showed heart

    – Joking aside the human side of sport is what makes it great. Why do some players when they sign long term contracts outperform them? Why do some tank. How does a GM figure this out. Some players need to have fear put in them. Others have to flattered or left alone to be peak.

    – These things aren’t quantifiable (as of yet).

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jesse’s OT assist was actually a really really high end play:

    https://twitter.com/jrabane/status/1175487580546248705

  96. SwedishPoster says:

    Haven’t been able to catch last nights game but I heard the Burd is the word.

    (I will grind these Burd puns so hard)

  97. Rebillled says:

    Went to the Vancouver game:

    Our #1 goalie looked a combination of Talbot and himself last year.
    Keegan Whoa Lowe(adios)

    Last night:

    We were losing until…

    ….they put in a goalie that is worse than any goalie in the League? Even ours.

    Pray for Smith

  98. hunter1909 says:

    One thing different this season is the fact the opposition are respecting the defence. For the last many seasons the opposition would forecheck the Oilers defence, and was that because of some fool deciding that they were only allowed to pass the puck up through the boards??

    How stupid can anyone be, than to deny defence options re getting the puck to the freaking forwards.

    #oilershockey

  99. hunter1909 says:

    OriginalPouzar: He’s only 33 and one season removed from dominating the Austrian league offensively for Salzburg.

    Better still, that fraud who was gifted the job of NHL head coach, the hypocritical MacT(the NHL isn’t a development league) is now toiling in the KHL with a losing team(surprise surprise).

  100. Ryan says:

    Hunter, put me down for 86 points. Goals for JP: 13

  101. hunter1909 says:

    Cassandra: The argument is that by and large, you can’t tell who is clutch or not on the basis of past clutchness.

    That’s what I always used to think when Glenn Anderson scored another routine huge goal.

    Messier I never believed in either.

    What a pair of fakes.

  102. Pescador says:

    hunter1909: That’s what I always used to think when Glenn Anderson scored another routine huge goal.

    Messier I never believed in either.

    What a pair of fakes.

    The most un-clutch tandem of all the former Oilers.
    So tired of the UCOBC

  103. Pescador says:

    Munny:
    Just a reminder that if you are in a position to, you can help defray Hunter’s Death March costs with a small $1 donation to the Paypal on his website here:

    https://oilersdeathmarch.com/

    A whole season of Bataan for only $1!

    Thank you in advance!

    I’ll donate,
    But not until he tell us what 1909 stands for

  104. hunter1909 says:

    For the most part what I’ve enjoyed about the Tippett Oilers so far is how I’m happy to watch the defence instead of hoping the forwards somehow manage to score.

  105. GordieHoweHatTrick says:

    Pescador: I’ll donate,
    But not until he tell us what 1909 stands for

    Birth year? 😉

  106. Mr DeBakey says:

    Yeti: I think if you switch Persson and Benning, that may be the opening night D.

    Using a saw-’em-good/bad method, I’ve come to the conclusion that managing a first-year NHLers minutes [no matter his age] is critical.

    More games, more travel, bigger & faster opponents wear these guys down.

    So, I think the Oilers need to sit Persson regularly, therefore they need an extra RHD.

  107. hunter1909 says:

    Pescador: So tired of the UCOBC

    Agreed: Ultimate Coconut Butter Cake can get boring after awhile.

  108. Ryan says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    One of my favorite clutch moments. This was a clutch shot.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-d_6LiQyKY

  109. yeraslob says:

    hunter1909,

    Most over-rated coach we’ve ever had. Abandoning things that were seemingly working (Nuge, JJ, Jesse as a line, Chaisson scoring away from McD then being promoted, etc). The game has passed TMac by. At least Hitch won a Cup before the game passed him by.

  110. Ryan says:

    Pescador: I’ll donate,
    But not until he tell us what 1909 stands for

    I’d like to know too, but Hunter is very secretive. I once asked him which country he lives in and he wouldn’t answer.

    Have a look:

    https://www.onthisday.com/events/date/1909

    Or there’s a book, “The Life of a Fossil Hutner (1909)???”

  111. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: 1) 5 points in 2 games is much different than 3 points in 2 games – extrapolate that if you want to compare the two players.

    Of course, I also expressed more than just the exhibition production and noted Gagner’s history of production including scoring at top 6 rates on the Oilers away from McDavid last – something that is an absolute must for this team.

    2) I never said it was the “right move” to send Marody down and noted surprise at the assignment.Our conversation regarding the move had to do with not agreeing about the massive egregiousness of the move and it souring the relationship with the 22 year old Marody beyond repair. I understand the reasoning behind the move and am fine with it but never stated it was the right move.It was definitely not a horrendous mistake that your posts imply it is.

    Still having trouble nuancing 5×5 pts/60 with QoC with TOI, eh?

    Still “holy shit, he’s scoring at a rate comparable with elite!”

    It’s the very basis of Ricki’s theories.

    A 4th Line player can post very good 5x5pts/60, but will regress as he gets more ice time against better players unless he’s actually a good player. Simples.

  112. Bruce McCurdy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Lots of community members have (and do) want to see Drai playing center and separated from McDavid.

    There are clear arguments for it (and against).

    At the same time, I don’t think a plus game from Drai as center in the first week of exhibition against a flames team with no Monohan, Gaudreau, Gio, Tkachuk, Brodie, Andersson, Hamonic, etc. is going to alter the coach clear plan to play McDavid and Drai together.

    We have all seen Drai dominate in stretches as a center, against legit playoff teams.I’m sure Tippett has seen that as well, I don’t think anything Drai does as a center in the next 10 days changes anything.

    What stood out about Leon last night in a live setting was his ability to enter the zone with speed, drive the defencemen back, cut across the high slot and then find a trailer (wing or D) with room to drive toward the net. He did it time and again, set up Nygard at least 3 times in similar fashion, + Nurse on the play where Nygard cashed the rebound.

    Leon’s combination of speed, power, puck protection & elite passing ability off both sides of his stick make him a natural for the C position. That said, some of those attributes + his wicked one-timer make him a natural as 97’s sidekick, be it on left or right wing. Nice problem for a coach to have. The bigger problem is that he can’t be cloned.

  113. defmn says:

    Cassandra:
    Bag of Pucks,

    No one thinks there is no such thing as being clutch.The argument is that by and large, you can’t tell who is clutch or not on the basis of past clutchness.

    They are different kinds of claims.Refuting the former does not refute the latter.

    I would bet quite a bit for instance, that you could measure clutch putting in golf.But I know you can’t measure clutch hitting in baseball, which is more or less indistinguishable from narrative pushing.

    Actually there were huge online battles in the early days between the numbers guys and the non-believers on this very subject. It was one of the major dividing lines.

    Of course the math has become much more sophisticated than it was even 10 years ago for analyzing how things happen in a hockey game but there is no doubt that it was the denying that some guys perform better under pressure than others that caused a lot of arguments and hard feelings.

  114. drglen says:

    Do we have to keep Manning? Could he be waived? (not sure he’d be taken) ..

    Agree that Benning will rebound… Benning can also sit for short stretches OK.

    Can you carry 8 for a while?

    Couple things.. the key will be the penalty kill.. forwards and D… I don’t really know who are penalty killers are, and that’s going to clarify bear, lagesson, and persson also.. not that one would necessarily use them as penalty killers, but will show NHL readyness.

    And injuries… somebodies going to get injured this week, on the oilers, or on another team. ( dark prediction I know) that will be the catalyst for a trade bundle.

  115. hunter1909 says:

    defmn: denying that some guys perform better under pressure than others

    It’s asinine not to believe that some individuals perform better under pressure than other individuals.

  116. Eh Team says:

    OriginalPouzar: Jurco
    Burdasov
    Nygard

    On the plus side, none of these are Lucic.

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Not true. There is posters here that don’t believe in it. Woodguy springs to mind for one.

    Either find where I said that or retract that please.

    I know what say (for the most part) and I probably never said that.

    I may have talked about how few examples of “clutch” situations exist so you don’t know if if the results mean anything due to sample size, but you mis-charatertize me.

    Ie) players who’s playoffs points/gm are greater in the playoffs than regular season is probably significant.

    Claude Lemiuex is the poster boy for this.

    Thats some of the of the few results that have enough data that you can look at it and think it has some significance.

  118. McNuge93 says:

    drglen:
    Do we have to keep Manning?Could he be waived?(not sure he’d be taken) ..

    Agree that Benning will rebound… Benning can also sit for short stretches OK.

    Can you carry 8 for a while?

    Couple things.. the key will be the penalty kill.. forwards and D… I don’t really know who are penalty killers are, and that’s going to clarify bear, lagesson, and perssonalso.. not that one would necessarily use them as penalty killers, but will show NHL readyness.

    And injuries… somebodies going to get injured this week, on the oilers, or on another team. ( dark prediction I know) that will be the catalyst for a trade bundle.

    Well he can be waived same as last year, but highly unlikely anyone picks him up. If he continues to show well and actually be the 7th best defenceman i’d keep him. He was much maligned last year because of Chia’s stupidity in picking him up at his price point. But in fairness he seemed to come to camp this year ready to fight for a job.

    I think there are more forwards that the coaching staff will be unsure about and want extra looks at, than D, so would rather run with 14 F. You can always demote and recall a D if necessary.

  119. duct tape and foil says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I am a Matt Benning supporter and refuse to put too much stock in to early exhibition games from “veterans”, but there may be a non-zero chance of something like this:

    Nurse/Larsson
    Klefbom/Persson
    Lagesson/Russell

    Benning

    OR

    Nurse/Larson
    Klefbom/Persson
    Russell/Bear

    Benning

    Unlikely as Matt will play better.

    Klef, Nurse, Larsson……….top 3 are set. But goaltending and 2RD remain big question marks this year.

    Without Lagesson the bottom two pairs you map out are very vulnerable on the cycle – no breakers to be seen. I’m willing to keep looking at Persson but won’t cede him anything until he plays against real NHL competition.

    Benning is fine at 3RD but we will need that slot for a kid very very soon, and he’s shown zero ability to play up the roster in multiple attempts.

    You keep Russell at 3LD if you can, but somebody will get hurt, and he will have to play 2RD at some point this year. Just pray it’s not Larsson as we have zero cover for him again.

    Never been a big Caleb Jones fan so dealing him now for a guy like Gudas works for me. Gudas is basically Larssen lite. Washington needs to shed salary and might do it for a young defenseman like Jones or Bear in return. Sure Gudas is UFA next year but we really need cover at RD, we have lots of young dmen, and our season could hang on filling the RD hole. With a guy like Gudas (or similar) we could afford to slow play Persson and the rest of our young RD.

    Need a trade next week.

  120. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Just looked at the replay of the Nurse/Nygard goal again and it was Nygard and not Nurse.In fact it wasn’t a terrible goal on Gillies but a real nice and slick play by Nygard.

    He went forhand/backhand in tight with the puck.

    All of the wingers Holland brought in are shooters and have as many goals as assists.

    There is method to his madness, having a bunch of playmakers in house.

  121. Primetime says:

    Twinkle Mo’ Fo’ Toes:

    Nygard has shown well with his speed, but he appears to have hands of stone.His wheels makes him an intriguing player and I’d like to see a Nygard-Haas-Archibald or “speed line” tried next week.

    Watch the overhead replay of Nurse’s goal last night. Even if the puck actually went in on the Nurse shot (some argue there is a replay that shows it’s in), Nygaard’s reaction and hands are still impressive. Forehand-Backhand-Back of the net. He beat 2 Calgary defencemen and the goalie, all of whom thought the play was still on as well

  122. drglen says:

    duct tape and foil,

    Benning is an nhl D but I kinda agree that the ceiling has been reached. Is Gudas theoretically ‘in play’ for looming salary cap issues” ? Kind of a rental, but I hate to keep saying it but our D have a history of injuries. I’d go gudas for Jones. I want to hang on to Bear,, not exactly sure why.. . an interesting player. Good passer and shooter, makes quick decisions.. speeds the team up.. probably defensive liabilities at this point, and, he’s not huge.. but from a subjective fan perspective he makes the team more interesting. Kind of like nurse.. I think we sometimes turn a blind eye to Nurse’s poor and jittery decisions.. because he’s such an interesting player.

    Point about Lagessons cycle breaking is well taken… like to see it first hand though. Agree on persson, and all these guys really, .. need to see everybody really, really pressed.

  123. drglen says:

    McNuge93,

    agree he’s looked OK and hats off to his resolve and compete.. in kind of a hostile climate in some ways. We’ve got to give full credit to the guys character.

    But, … I think if he steps on the ice the other coach immediately says… mismatch opportunity and works to get top line out. He can cover, but not really. I put Benning several notches up on Manning, and I’d put a guy like Brandon Davidson as even a notch above manning.

    you’re probably right on sending down a D and carrying 14. The forwards jobs are pretty fluid right now…. Gagne, Haas.. Jurco… .. Cave…. russell…. Burdasov….. lots to work out.

  124. defmn says:

    hunter1909: It’s asinine not to believe that some individuals perform better under pressure than other individuals.

    That is what I think as well. When the argument was raging a decade ago the number guys would show how scoring rates for players who had a reputation for being clutch in the playoffs didn’t deviate significantly from their rate during the regular season but, of course, players pad their scoring against much weaker competition during the season than they meet up with in the playoffs.

    Regardless, the ability to analyze all of this has become much more sophisticated over the years but my point in my last post was simply to remind that this was a huge internet argument way back when.

  125. Buddy says:

    hunter1909:
    Come on You assholes! Time to step up or eff off!!

    I choose stepping up.

    Give me 72 points for the Oil, 10 goals for JP.

    It looks like Jesse will score more than that, but that would have been my guess before the Finnish season started so I’ll stick with it.

    As for the Oilers, I sure hope I’m wrong with that guess.

    Thanks for doing this, Hunter!

  126. Nit64 says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Haven’t been able to catch last nights game but I heard the Burd is the word.

    (I will grind these Burd puns so hard)

    Fun Fact. At Rogers place Big Burd says he’s really a Condor.

    https://muppet.fandom.com/wiki/Mister_Rogers%27_Neighborhood

  127. duct tape and foil says:

    drglen,

    If you squint real hard you can imagine the goaltending working out

    We’ve brought in a ton of wingers who have scored in Europe or previous years in the NHL

    But we’ve got nothing at 2RD except Russell who is far better suited at 3LD or short-term as an injury replacement 2RD. It’s a hole we have to fill even if it’s only for one year and we have to give up a young guy for a soon to be UFA. Bear, Jones and Lagesson are all waiver eligible next year and it’s impossible for all of them to make the roster. Best thing is to use one to fill a gaping hole now and Jones would be the guy I use to do it.

  128. TeeVee says:

    Edmonton 91
    JP 16

  129. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Not true. There is posters here that don’t believe in it. Woodguy springs to mind for one.

    Either find where I said that or retract that please.

    I know what say (for the most part) and I probably never said that.

    I may have talked about how few examples of “clutch” situations exist so you don’t know if if the results mean anything due to sample size, but you mis-charatertize me.

    Ie) players who’s playoffs points/gm are greater in the playoffs than regular season is probably significant.

    Claude Lemiuex is the poster boy for this.

    Thats some of the of the few results that have enough data that you can look at it and think it has some significance.

    If that’s how you remember it, i don’t have any issues with retracting.

    I have memory of a thread a while back where you were strongly debunking clutch as a myth saying the numbers simply didn’t support it. But if my memory is overstating your position, fair enough and i’m glad you’re buying this stock.

  130. Bag of Pucks says:

    Ryan:
    Bag of Pucks,

    One of my favorite clutch moments. This was a clutch shot.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-d_6LiQyKY

    The anti-clutch (choke) plays are dramatic too. Like the Stefan gaffe on the empty netter or Steve Smith.

    Some players rise to the occasion. Some wilt under pressure.

  131. defmn says:

    Bag of Pucks: The anti-clutch (choke) plays are dramatic too. Like the Stefan gaffe on the empty netter or Steve Smith.

    Some players rise to the occasion. Some wilt under pressure.

    Not many ‘wilters’ make it to the best league in the world, though. 😉

  132. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks: If that’s how you remember it, i don’t have any issues with retracting.

    I have memory of a thread a while back where you were strongly debunking clutch as a myth saying the numbers simply didn’t support it. But if my memory is overstating your position, fair enough and i’m glad you’re buying this stock.

    People “remember” things I never said often here.

    Its a pet peeve to have things attributed to me that I never said.

    The biggest thing about “clutch” is describing the situations well enough so you can collect enough information that the sample size isn’t subject to massive sample size issues.

    Eberle is great example.

    16/17 playoffs 13gp 0g 2a 2pts 0.15pts/gm

    “:He disappears when then games get bigger’

    18/19 playoffs 8gp 4g 5a 9pts 1.13pts/gm

    ” He stepped up when he team mates needed him”

    It’s easy to concoct a narrative around really small samples.

    Also,

    In our journey with PuckIQ we found that it’s takes ~300 minutes for any sample to start to get close to resembling their future production.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull: Still having trouble nuancing 5×5 pts/60 with QoC with TOI, eh?

    Still “holy shit, he’s scoring at a rate comparable with elite!”

    It’s the very basis of Ricki’s theories.

    A 4th Line player can post very good 5x5pts/60, but will regress as he gets more ice time against better players unless he’s actually a good player. Simples.

    Lots of data to support that quality of linemate is more important than quality of competition as far as scoring rates. See Zack Kassian as an example. I suspect his QoC went WAY up when moved from the 4th line to the 1st line – scoring rates went WAY up despite.

    Lots of date but Zack last year is just one example that came to mind that completely obliterates your position.

    Gagner producing away from McDavid – that is massive for this team.

    If you don’t want to look at “scoring rates” and go with PPG, feel free, his numbers, even in the last number of years, would be very helpful on the Oilers

  134. Tapdog says:

    hunter1909,

    Oilers – 93 pts
    JP – 9 goals I am going for the trade 🙂

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    BruceMcCurdy: What stood out about Leon last night in a live setting was his ability to enter the zone with speed, drive the defencemen back, cut across the high slot and then find a trailer (wing or D) with room to drive toward the net. He did it time and again, set up Nygard at least 3 times in similar fashion, + Nurse on the play where Nygard cashed the rebound.

    Leon’s combination of speed, power, puck protection & elite passing ability off both sides of his stick make him a natural for the C position. That said, some of those attributes + his wicked one-timer make him a natural as 97’s sidekick, be it on left or right wing. Nice problem for a coach to have. The bigger problem is that he can’t be cloned.

    Oh, Bruce, I agree, he can be a dominant center in the NHL (and has done so in the past).

    He can do exactly what you explained, and does do it, in the NHL regular season – Tippett knows that and I’m sure he’s seen film of it. I’m just stating that doing exactly that, gaining the flames zone against a defence with none of their top 4, and creating scoring chances, isn’t going to alter Tippett’s plan.

  136. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0:

    Its a pet peeve to have things attributed to me that I never said.

    I think it’s fair to say this a fairly common experience and pet peeve for most human beings.

    Ir’s the old saying. There’s 3 sides to every story.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    f

    drglen:
    Do we have to keep Manning?Could he be waived?(not sure he’d be taken) ..

    Agree that Benning will rebound… Benning can also sit for short stretches OK.

    Can you carry 8 for a while?

    Couple things.. the key will be the penalty kill.. forwards and D… I don’t really know who are penalty killers are, and that’s going to clarify bear, lagesson, and perssonalso.. not that one would necessarily use them as penalty killers, but will show NHL readyness.

    And injuries… somebodies going to get injured this week, on the oilers, or on another team. ( dark prediction I know) that will be the catalyst for a trade bundle.

    I am confident management would LOVE if Manning got claimed on waivers but the chances of that are all but none. The better chance at disposition would be a trade with some cap retained.

    They could keep 8 d-men, not all that uncommon for stretches, but cutting down to 13 forwards would be very hard as well.

  138. theWaxCollector says:

    Hunter,

    99 Points
    8 Goals Puljujarvi before being traded

    Lowetide,

    Past couple visits to site on iPhone and I can see the comments without logging in, FYI

    It’s nice seeing a system that has the potential to be extremely effective. I can’t recall seeing so many options for outlet passes. The puck is moving up the ice fast. I am optimistic. Hence the 99 prediction

  139. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    I remember when you said there was a 50% discount on all wood related products for all LT posters!

  140. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: Lots of data to support that quality of linemate is more important than quality of competition as far as scoring rates.See Zack Kassian as an example. I suspect his QoC went WAY up when moved from the 4th line to the 1st line – scoring rates went WAY up despite.

    Lots of date but Zacklast year is just one example that came to mind that completely obliterates your position.

    Gagner producing away from McDavid – that is massive for this team.

    If you don’t want to look at “scoring rates” and go with PPG, feel free, his numbers, even in the last number of years, would be very helpful on the Oilers

    No, because Zach is actually a good hockey player, as per my caveat. So no obliteration today.

    Again, when you get these numbers, they once again need to be run against their possession metrics and their point share and if they get caved by the opposition or not.

    There is no magic stat. Just a bunch of data that can be used as indicators. Of course your linemates matter. But you’re starting down the road of justifying some strange people playing way out of their skill zone on the pretense that if someone else is good enough, it doesn’t matter. Slippery slope.

    If you’re good enough, you can play for longer against better and still produce. That you get better linemates is a byproduct of moving up the depth chart. It’s a symptom, not a cause.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lavoie held off the score-sheet in a blowout loss – did have 8 shots on net mind you.

  142. nelson88 says:

    jtblack,

    1. Maturing of the core. Hard to bet against two top 10 players in the league just entering their prime
    2. Better goaltending. Last nights game of Rittich and Gillis being a great example of how teams fall apart if they don’t trust their goaltending. I expect the Oilers tandem to be at least league average
    3. To a lesser extent. Better depth and better coaching

    All of the above with a healthy dose of blind, foolish eternal optimism….

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its interesting that Kassian is a good player and Gagner is not despite Gagner having tripple the career points (and only about 16 months older). Yup, about double the games but there is a reason for that and, even so, the PPG over their careers massively favor the bad player. I guess it was QoC all these years…

  144. Gerta Rauss says:

    theWaxCollector: Past couple visits to site on iPhone and I can see the comments without logging in, FYI

    I no longer have an Apple product but that’s good info, thx

    The caching issue (or whatever it was) appears to have been resolved on Android and my Win7 laptop for a few weeks now(maybe longer, I don’t know)

    I use Chrome on both products however, perhaps a recent browser update resolved the issue

  145. McSorley33 says:

    godot10,

    Bear gets Manning

    Persson gets Klefbom

    May the best man win?

  146. SkatinginSand says:

    OriginalPouzar: Oh, Bruce, I agree, he can be a dominant center in the NHL (and has done so in the past).

    He can do exactly what you explained, and does do it, in the NHL regular season – Tippett knows that and I’m sure he’s seen film of it. I’m just stating that doing exactly that, gaining the flames zone against a defence with none of their top 4, and creating scoring chances, isn’t going to alter Tippett’s plan.

    I guess that I was seeing things when I saw no.24 on the ice for the Flames last night. Or are you saying that he is not top 4?

  147. T0ML says:

    Hunter, Im going with Oilers getting 91 points, and Pool Party getting 31 goals.

  148. Lowetide says:

    Kassian and Gagner have some similarities, both high picks with strengths and flaws in their game. Kassian will always be remembered fondly in Edmonton for 2017 spring, but maybe there are more chapters, trunks of memories still to come as Neil Young said. He isn’t a sniper but found the range enough to move up the depth chart. Can he sustain it? Don’t know, but until someone takes the job it’s an interesting experiment. I’ll give him credit for working at his craft and overcoming a lot over the years, he’s found a path back to becoming a solid NHL player (and added PK, plus some goals).

    Gagner is also flawed, but has substantial gifts. His work on the PP in CBJ was a combination of skill and perfect working environment. He can be effective in a specific role.

    I don’t know who likes whom in this conversation but would suggest the Oilers can’t afford to piss away one drop of useful talent at this time. Both of these men have assets that can be valuable, and flaws that might be fatal.

    That’s basically 70 percent of the NHL.

  149. voxwah says:

    hunter1909,

    Oilers 96 points
    Pool Party: 11 goals

    Thanks Hunter 🙂

  150. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Its interesting that Kassian is a good player and Gagner is not despite Gagner having tripple the career points (and only about 16 months older).Yup, about double the games but there is a reason for that and, even so, the PPG over their careers massively favor the bad player. I guess it was QoC all these years…

    Everything has to be mutually exclusive with you, eh? Zach has played over 300 games less than Sam. In wildly different roles
    Zack had skills, but as soon as they found out he could fight, they shoe-horned him into a 4th line energy role.

    The NHL is littered with stories about players being told to “do what it takes” with the people doing the telling being dishonest and getting some of these players to be enforcers. See of these guys were actually pretty skilled.

    Zack also had substance abuse problems. Sam had refusing to back check properly problems.

    But to double down. Morody shouldn’t have been sent down. Good cheap player that is better than more than a few still here, and the GM brings in a guy from Siberia that he’s never seen because you never know, he could be a 28yo Ovechkin that everyone missed, but hey, never question, never learn.

  151. Jethro Tull says:

    Lowetide,

    The Oilers piss away talent? You’re going to see more of it in the name of playing under performing vets until the talent is “over-ripe”.

    But ho hum, I’ll still cheer for them.

  152. Side says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Lowetide,

    The Oilers piss away talent? You’re going to see more of it in the name of playing under performing vets until the talent is “over-ripe”.

    But ho hum, I’ll still cheer for them.

    Is Gagner underperforming?

    I don’t see why there is so much angst over Marody getting sent down as if he will not be called up again.

    Give the “underperforming vets” a chance to show if they can return to form and if not, call up the 6 gp 0 point youth to see if they are better.

    Doesn’t seem like a bad idea to me.

  153. drglen says:

    Gagne is a good second unit powerplay option…. and so far he’s earned his spot on the roster. He’s also a guy that can sit a few games, or be pulled if he doesn’t match well with a particular team. Well see. 5 on 5 numbers are the tell imo. .. aka can he defend.

    Kass has impressed, well only 1 game ….. but if he can keep his cool and play with maturity, he’s a unique talent… a forward version of Bucky in winnipeg. Kass is very, very important to this team. He can intimdate with his heavy checking and speed, … and kind of plays a tacet ‘semenko’ kind of role on the team. by eye, Kassian just seems different… like he ‘gets it’ now. well see very small sample size…

  154. hunter1909 says:

    Jethro Tull: But to double down. Morody shouldn’t have been sent down. Good cheap player that is better than more than a few still here, and the GM brings in a guy from Siberia that he’s never seen because you never know, he could be a 28yo Ovechkin that everyone missed, but hey, never question, never learn.

    I see it differently.

    I see a GM who is in the process of making small safe bets, instead of shooting for the fences like the previous GM who presumably by now might have Nurse/Draisaitl on the block to “shake up” the team.

    There is now a head coach who imo already has the team defence playing at a higher level than the previous few coaches. I don’t even see the opposition instantly forechecking the defence like I’ve gotten used to for the past several seasons(memory is hazy, so many things wrong so it’s hard to keep track).

    And the team suddenly appears to understand what they need to do when they’re in their own end of the rink, compared to the fire drills of the past several coaches.

    We shall find out whether this is happening for real in less than 2 weeks, once the real season begins.

  155. deardylan says:

    Hi Hunter, thanks for all your work on the deathmarch spreadsheet of guesses.
    If McD not at 100% then very low guess of 70pts and 20 goals for Puljujarvi.

  156. OriginalPouzar says:

    I was told that one thing applies to Kassian because he’s a good player and it doesn’t apply to Gagner because he’s not a good player hence why the theory applies to Gagner but not Kassian.

    Without getting in to which player is currently “better”, I’m quite certain that there isn’t such a gap between the players that analytical analysis applies to one and not the other.

  157. Norgate says:

    hunter1909,

    105 points, 11 goals. Starrett leads them to the cup. Why the hell not 😎

  158. Georgexs says:

    “Joakim Nygard probably won an NHL job last night. He scored a goal, five shots and four HDSC’s according to NTS. His speed adds a look this team badly needs. Impressive game.”

    “Anton Burdasov is an intriguing hockey player. He’s big, can skate, has a howitzer for a shot, and can pass the puck. NO IDEA what he is, but first impressions were good.”

    Tippett had nice things to say about the two of them as well. Also used the word intriguing wrt Burdasov.

    We’re doing this, aren’t we? These two are going to be in our top 6. Nygard, for sure, after what he showed last night. He’s not just fast. He can move and make plays. Burdasov? I’m guessing Kas has no margin for error. Coach likes the Russian guy’s shot; thinks maybe he can score from distance in the NHL. Very, very few guys can do that. He’s going to give him a real chance.

    Intriguing? Very.

  159. rickithebear says:

    Nothing worse than people who talk a players ceiling.

    My theory Belichek and Me.
    Relating to 40 yrs of sports play.
    Championship teams are built on high baseline player teams.
    Mcdavid has an unbelievable high level of baseline offensive play.

    I do not use the false eye affect ( theory ) many fans and MSM use.
    We’re they use a low% of dramatic player +ve/ – ve performance to define a player.

    Poster child for this was Sheldon Souray.
    I define forward by per 25 shift multiples and dmen by 30 shift multiples.
    Souray would have a dramatic blow by leading to a goal.
    False eye fans would say he was an awful player.
    Yet his goal causing mistake per 300 shift rate was top 10 defence. Yes a product of NJD top HD dman factory.

    That was why years ago I was a booster for Staples mistake aproach.
    “belichek and Me” had already defined top mistake free play as championship play decades ago.

    I watched all the “False Eye affect Fans” argue against Staples aproach.
    They had zero idea what a championship structure is.

    Rovers abandon def of the HD area that is 500% more critical to GF and GA than any other area of the ice.
    They fail on both sides of HD area open high danger shot density thru HD area penetration.
    They are a hybrid of the worst Baseline player skill at “skater offence” and “HD area defence.”

    Yet all the “false eye affect fans” let a very low % of +ve play form an opinion of a rover.
    Rovers: are the anti championship baseline player.

    Have to look for my post on Clutch at HF boards.

  160. Old Timer says:

    hunter1909,

    I am an avid Oilers fan but see rough waters ahead for one more year

    Oilers 81 points

    Puljujarvi 24 goals

    Thanks for putting this “March” together

  161. Georgexs says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Not true. There is posters here that don’t believe in it. Woodguy springs to mind for one.

    Either find where I said that or retract that please.

    I know what say (for the most part) and I probably never said that.

    I may have talked about how few examples of “clutch” situations exist so you don’t know if if the results mean anything due to sample size, but you mis-charatertize me.

    Ie) players who’s playoffs points/gm are greater in the playoffs than regular season is probably significant.

    Claude Lemiuex is the poster boy for this.

    Thats some of the of the few results that have enough data that you can look at it and think it has some significance.

    “Thats some of the of the few results that have enough data that you can look at it and think it has some significance.”

    Claude Lemieux?

  162. Georgexs says:

    JimmyV1965: The last two games are fascinating in a way. Both show how bad goaltending can tear down a team. The losers in both games were playing well until their goalies crapped the bed. As a result, the players in front of them started playing very poorly.

    Didn’t the teams that won going away ice much better lineups than the teams they beat? Didn’t the losers in both games break down defensively in front of their goalies when the game was still close? Did the players in front of Koskinen and Gillies play well on goals 2 and 3?

    Yesterday, for example, the Oilers had more NHL’ers in their lineup (and two of their top 3 forwards). I think it was Archibald who came across to get his stick in the way of an open shot against Koskinen. Cutting down on GA is a team game.

    Talbot was a Vezina candidate in 16-17 and a trade deadline casualty by 18-19. Up to 16-17, he had always been an above league average goaltender. Did he just totally fall apart after 16-17? Or was the 16-17 team pretty good in comparison to the not so good teams that followed? A combination of both? It’s always a combination of both. It’s difficult to determine the proportion of GA that falls to goaltending and the proportion that falls to team play.

    I think the guys using computer vision on game footage to track player and puck movement are much closer to figuring this out than the casual fan. All we know is the location and type of shot, the player taking the shot and the outcome. They’ll know where everyone else was on the ice, whether the goalie had to move, whether the shot was well contested, screened, deflected. And, if the shooter scored, exactly where the shot entered the net, how the shooter beat the goalie.

    Koskinen, in his first season as a starter, put up below average numbers. I think it’s fair to say he did that behind a below average team defense. We had the pitchforks out for Dubnyk in his breakdown year, but he’s been an above average goalie every year after he left us, playing behind the Wild’s better organized and staffed team defense. I really, really, really don’t like Calgary, but if their defense is as good as people believe, Talbot should be back to an above average goalie this season.

    We shouldn’t put too much on the goalie’s shoulders. Yes, goalies matter. The team matters more. Watch the goals allowed throughout the year by other established starters in the league. They get beat high glove side as well. They just don’t have to face as many shooters who have the time and space to aim for top corners. If they did, we might be asking the question about them as well.

  163. RonnieB says:

    hunter1909,

    92 points for the Oilers
    14 goals for Yessa

    Please and thank you.

  164. v4ance says:

    Woodguy v2.0: People “remember” things I never said often here.

    Its a pet peeve to have things attributed to me that I never said.

    The biggest thing about “clutch” is describing the situations well enough so you can collect enough information that the sample size isn’t subject to massive sample size issues.

    Eberle is great example.

    16/17 playoffs 13gp 0g 2a 2pts 0.15pts/gm

    “:He disappears when then games get bigger’

    18/19 playoffs 8gp 4g 5a 9pts 1.13pts/gm

    ” He stepped up when he team mates needed him”

    It’s easy to concoct a narrative around really small samples.

    Also,

    In our journey with PuckIQ we found that it’s takes ~300 minutes for any sample to start to get close to resembling their future production.

    I remember that one LT thread where Woodguy said he got the cooties rubbing elbows with some mainland European “whiskeys” instead of sticking with good ole Irsih “Whiskys”.

    True story!

  165. Munny says:

    Georgexs,

    Burdman has really added a wrinkle to the state of affairs. If he’s a player, he’s found money.

    And someone else is in the ejection seat.

  166. Munny says:

    Jethro Tull: But to double down. Morody shouldn’t have been sent down

    Rob. Schremp.

    lol

  167. duct tape and foil says:

    Burdasov….guy has a very very heavy shot, seems like he knows how to handle the puck in his own end and make a smart pass to hit his center breaking up the middle, he’s got a history of hitting hard in the KHL. As Tip said..intriguing. Very early days but he looks like a guy with skills to fit on a McDavid line. Yes Kass, those are footsteps you are hearing.

  168. Munny says:

    Is Bibi Andreescu clutch?

    The Media: Yes!
    The Players: No!

    And both have a valid narrative. Which one is correct? Do we know enough to say, for certain? (I know which one we as fans would pick).

    And if we don’t know enough after a season of Bianca, can we say when a Tour player misses or makes a single important Slam putt, that they are, or aren’t clutch?

    It’s not a simple thing, and I think Klosterman wishes it was… because then he has the justification to re-iterate a simple story he’s told many times before. He’s not interested in the complexity of the issue, And for me, that means I’m not interested in him.

    I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.

    –Michael J.

    Now that is complex and human… and the truer, more beautiful story. Bound together with the elegance of Math.

  169. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy
    Puck IQ:
    2D not multi.

    3D with group count with clearly variant avg per group.
    You see repeats of group averages in like evga/60 years.
    07/08 to 16/17 2.30 – 2.38

    17/18 2.60
    18/19 2.64

    Since Vegas/ STL repeated my cup core theory.
    I continue use my roster theory to test population capture of Cup caliber players.

    Fenwick 47% capture of champ caliber players.
    worst of the data columns.

  170. rickithebear says:

    I posted this on HF Boards April 17/2017

    /// I think clutch is B……. S…….

    But if you are going to use clutch.

    GWG need G before it can be a GWG.

    So the goals before the GWG have more clutch value.
    Or Else
    Their is no GWG.

    1. Super Clutch
    In wins:
    All the goals before GWG
    In losses:
    All the Goals to get you within one
    &
    Game tying goals

    2. Clutch
    GWG

    3. None clutch
    In wins:
    G after GWG
    In losses:
    All None super clutch goals

    Experts define 3 levels of clutch.
    1. Super Clutch
    2. Clutch
    3. None clutch ///

    I should have added this point:

    “All clutch players are as useless as none clutch players without Super Clutch players.”

    This is the most accurate break down of clutch.

    LMAO writing this.

  171. OaklandOiler says:

    hunter1909,

    I had to dust off the old Ouija board on this one. I’m pretty sure it said:

    1) My granny’s in hell
    – (no surprise there)
    &
    2) Oilers:98pts; JP:18 Goals
    – (I might have fudged this one a bit)

  172. Infidels says:

    hunter1909,

    96 points for the Oilers
    17 goals for JP

  173. ArmchairGM says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Benning is fine at 3RD but we will need that slot for a kid very very soon, and he’s shown zero ability to play up the roster in multiple attempts.

    Zero ability?

    Is 1250 minutes over 3 years a large enough sample size to prove anything? I’m genuinely asking, because looking at the numbers I think he can play 2RD. If you have proof otherwise, please share. Throwing out flat statements like “zero ability… in multiple attempts” with zero proof does nothing to move the conversation forward.

    I think it’s important to see that Matt Benning has played in the top-4 over his 3 year NHL career, and has been successful in these minutes. How do I know? I separated his top-4 minutes from his bottom-pairing minutes and then took a long look. It turns out this method is more useful than a knee-jerk reaction.

    To start with I used a proxy for “top-4” each year going back to 2016-17, based on TOI v Elites taken from puckiq.com, as follows:

    2016-17: Sekera (35.5%), Klefbom (34.6)
    2017-18: Nurse (34.9), Klefbom (32.3)
    2018-19: Klefbom (35.1), Nurse (33.8)

    Next I went to naturalstattrick.com and, using their “Teammates” tool, filtered all the stats for each year for the TOI Benning spent with each player listed above. I realize there were times when Russell-Benning were the 2nd pairing, but there may have been games that they were 3rd pairing too and I didn’t want to confuse the numbers with 3rd pairing data. Then too, who you play with is as important as who you play against, so showing those games where Russell-Benning played 2nd pairing probably doesn’t give us much information about potential combos this coming season, unless the injury bug strikes down 2-3 of the top-5 guys. For reference though, Russell-Benning were together just 21:04 in 2018-19 and outscored the competition 2-1. Negligible.

    So I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:

    TOI: 1250:19
    CF%: 52.79
    FF%: 53.00
    SF%: 53.17
    GF%: 55.65

    xGF%: 53.71
    SCF%: 52.75
    SCGF%: 56.99
    HDCF%: 52.69
    HDGF%: 56.72

    Sh%: 9.51
    Sv%: 91.75
    PDO: 1.013

    Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:

    With McDavid

    TOI: 420:30
    CF%: 55.19
    FF%: 56.65
    SF%: 56.14
    GF%: 62.96

    xGF%: 56.10
    SCF%: 55.27
    HDCF%: 55.10
    HDGF%: 59.38

    Sh%: 14.05
    Sv%: 90.73
    PDO: 1.048

    Without McDavid:

    TOI: 829:47
    CF%: 51.39
    FF%: 50.88
    SF%: 51.49
    GF%: 49.18

    xGF%: 52.06
    SCF%: 50.97
    HDCF%: 50.80
    HDGF%: 54.29

    Sh%: 8.20
    Sv%: 94.67
    PDO: 1.029

    The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.

    And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and our own Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.

    The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.

    Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is a top-pairing guy or even a sure-fire top 4. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of the other top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:

    Benning: 49.18 (while in the top-4 only)
    Nurse: 44.51
    Russell: 43.87
    Larsson: 43.68
    Klefbom: 40.27
    Sekera: 40.00 (includes bottom-pairing time)

    For reference, Benning’s overall GF% without McDavid (just so we’re comparing apples-to-apples) is 51.45%.

  174. ArmchairGM says:

    drglen:
    duct tape and foil,

    Benning is an nhl D but I kinda agree that the ceiling has been reached.Is Gudas theoretically ‘in play’ for looming salary cap issues”?Kind of a rental, but I hate to keep saying it but our D have a history of injuries. I’d go gudas for Jones. I want to hang on to Bear,, not exactly sure why.. . an interesting player.Good passer and shooter, makes quick decisions.. speeds the team up.. probably defensive liabilities at this point, and, he’s not huge.. but from a subjective fan perspective he makes the team more interesting. Kind of like nurse.. I think we sometimes turn a blind eye to Nurse’s poor and jittery decisions.. because he’s such an interesting player.

    Point about Lagessons cycle breaking is well taken… like to see it first hand though.Agree on persson, and all these guys really, .. need to see everybody really, really pressed.

    I don’t dislike Gudas, but I doubt he’s an upgrade on Benning.

  175. Lowetide says:

    What does clutch look like? Would clutch mean scoring more in the playoffs than the regular season? Like Glenn Anderson? He must have scored way more playoff goals per game than in the regular season, I bet. And he’d have enough sample size to be trustworthy.

  176. Ryan says:

    ArmchairGM: I don’t dislike Gudas, but I doubt he’s an upgrade on Benning.

    Trading Jones for a rental of Gudas during a season in which we’re a long shot just to make the playoffs doesn’t strike me as very savvy asset management.

    We could trade Gudas at the deadline, but I still can’t see why we’d do that initial trade.

  177. Chelios is a Dinosaur says:

    Death-march:

    Oilers 99
    JP: 10, then traded

  178. Gonzo says:

    Going to take Oilers with 94 points and JP with 21 goals.

  179. AnotherDonut says:

    hunter1909,

    Jesse has a shooting percentage of 2.7%. Will he play a full 60 games? Or be traded before Dec 1? Hmmmm.

    A Monte Carlo simulation, a roll of the dice and some serious hand waving comes up with these numbers:

    Oilers 89 points
    JP scores 10 goals

  180. Andy Dufresne says:

    Lowetide:
    What does clutch look like? Would clutch mean scoring more in the playoffs than the regular season? Like Glenn Anderson? He must have scored way more playoff goals per game than in the regular season, I bet. And he’d have enough sample size to be trustworthy.

    I looked it up in the “Hoyles Rules of Analytics” and there were pictures of Maurice Richard, Mario Lemieux, Mike Bossy, Mark Messier and Bobby Orr.

    It is defined as the coeffiecient of determination times the degenerate energy level, run through a Time-Independent Schrödinger Equation yields an alpha-numeric constant of either M1 or B2.

    To be clutch your name must start with either M or B, where B is considered to be an outlier.

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