An NHL roster is 23 bets. Not every roster bet is equal. Connor McDavid is a rare gem, that’s a wonderful bet. What about the No. 3 center? He’s important, but you’re really just trying to deploy one of the best 100 centers on the planet in the role. Right?
You’re not asking as much from that third center. Score as much as the other guy, call it a day. But he has to be competitive compared to other NHL No. 3 centers.
Ken Holland bought inside (Riley Sheahan) and outside (Gaetan Haas) the NHL to address the pivot position. He has some information, maybe one chapter, on Haas. The road beckons. What should Dave Tippett do?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions here.
- New Lowetide: Keeping an eye on Jesse Puljujarvi: Which teams could emerge as potential trade partners?
- New Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto’s fast start in the AHL highlights an active week for Oilers prospects
- Lowetide: A shift-by-shift analysis of Ethan Bear in the Oilers’ season opener
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Looking at how the Oilers can manage on defence without Adam Larsson
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: No need to temper expectations after Connor McDavid’s season debut for Oilers
- Lowetide: Ken Holland has a plan for the Oilers’ top prospects.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: At home with Ken Holland: Packing away the championship memories and preparing for a new challenge
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
- Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
- Lowetide: The Oilers are poised to break a 25-year-old franchise record this season
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft’s Bakersfield Condors might be bound for glory
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
OILERS AFTER TWO GAMES
Through two games the top six forwards have delivered seven goals, bottom six one (I’m counting Nygard bottom six). All top-six forwards save Nuge and Chiasson have posted at least one goal. You’d like more goals from the bottom six, but one goal in two games works out to 41 over a season. Would you be pleased with 41 goals from a bottom six forward group? Last year, Edmonton’s bottom six scored 28. Meaning, the Nygard goal puts this year’s group a full game ahead of last year. Score again Tuesday and we’ll call it an eruption!
CONDORS AFTER TWO GAMES
These lines and pairings are mostly a guess based on players on the ice when goals were scored. I watched the Friday night game, didn’t see any of Saturday. I’ll say this: Caleb Jones is a helluva player based on what I saw Friday. The Currie goal that night was impressive and involved pretty much every Condor on the ice. It started with Jones separating player from puck and getting an outlet pass to safety. Only two men have scored for Bakersfield. I don’t think Ryan McLeod will get 30 points this season, but with those two linemates he could post a handsome number.
EARLY HAAS
Gaetan Haas is at 4.72 points-per-60 even strength (all number NTS). It’s miles too early to discuss these numbers, let alone trust them. He has played 12 minutes five-on-five in the NHL.
I’m wondering today what Dave Tippett is planning. Can he run McDavid, Nuge, Haas and Riley Sheahan up the middle? Or, should he slide Leon Draisaitl back to the center position. Here’s what that might look like:
- Joakim Nygard-Connor McDavid-James Neal
- Tomas Jurco-Leon Draisaitl-Zack Kassian
- Markus Granlund-Nuge-Alex Chiasson
- Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald
- Extras: Gaetan Haas, Colby Cave
This assumes that Patrick Russell is sent to Bakersfield (it might be Cave).
EXPECTED GOALS
This is the brilliant work of Sean Tierney and is something we would wise to follow all year long. McDavid’s circle is just below Draisaitl’s, and Haas is about equal with Lawson Crouse. I’m going to run these once a week during the season. Check out Tierney. He’s smart.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We get rolling for a week that ends with turkey and I am SO excited! We’ll also talk sports! At 10:20, Andy McNamara explains the NFL weekend, and I’m going to need some help figuring out how the Cowboys and Eagles are 3-2 this morning. Jason Gregor pops in to discuss Oilers and Eskimos at 11, with Gabe Lacques from USA Today talkin’ baseball at 11:25. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Oilers are FIRST IN THE WEST!!!
And 7 games up on the Sharks.
We live in Bizzaro World.
Day to day.
Wow. Isn’t Morrissey injures too?
Kulikov just granted a Personal Leave of Absence by the Jets.
The Jets are loaded up front but a lot has changed in a short time on D can’t win every game 7-5. If Ehlers is traded it has to be for a damn decent D-man.
Agreed also.
One thing we should keep in mind though is that Holland has a history of re-signing his UFSs (for better or worse, it often involves an overpay). I feel like as Oilers fans we’ve grown accustomed to these guys walking at the end of their deals and needing to get SOMETHING back for the asset at basically the last possible minute. I think we should expect more of these guys (like RNH and Larsson, pending him recovering his game) to stick around rather than assuming they’re gone once their deals are up. That’s my hunch anyway. It’d be a nice change.
Agreed.
The Jets might have made that trade a year ago when they had cup run aspirations, NHL dmen, and were spending 1st rounders on Willie Mays Hayes… and Nuge had three years left in his contract.
Now, I don’t think there’s a chance they would.
Speaking of trading Nuge, his trade value continues to drop as contract runs out.
That is an interesting trade proposal. Contract durations would throw a wrench in there but interesting nonetheless.
Ehlers is a piss cutter. I say Chevy (and Jets fans I know at least) say no.
I’ve suggested it before elsewhere, but I think a deal centered around Nuge for Ehlers makes some sense for both parties. The Oilers get a play-driving winger that would be a near-perfect fit alongside Draisaitl and the Jets get a legitimate 2C to staple Laine to. Nuge plays the more valuable position and is fresh off his strongest season while Ehlers is younger and has a contract that runs an extra 4 years. I’d even be willing to throw a conditional pick based on Nuge re-signing in there to seal the deal.
Doing the yoga to support the wife as she is still brand new to teaching – just got certified at the end of summer.
It’s going to be a tough morning for sure.
I don’t think my lines are “ultra conservative” at all. Right now we have 1 outscoring line, my lines would give the team (potentially) 2 outscoring lines and 2 lines that can hold their own while causing some mayhem.
I honestly think that running unicorns is the surest way to fail – we simply don’t have the depth of skill on the wings to outscore the opposition. As good as he is, McDavid simply cannot outscore on his own, I’m only HOPING that having Jurco and Neal will be enough for him to do so. They may not be… I supposed Tippett could always run Draisaitl-Nuge-Kassian as the 1st line and get the McDavid line slightly easier competition.
60 minutes of hot yoga followed by 90 minutes of leg presses – you must be a beast!
I just threw that “consensus 3rd overall” comment in there to provide some low-hanging fruit. I can’t have OP agree with me on EVERYthing, that simply wouldn’t do! 😉
I agree that his draft position has little to do with his value today, but the fact is he has the raw skills to be one of the top-5 players in his draft year and if other GM’s see him putting it all together in Liiga there will be significant interest. I don’t think a late 1st rounder is out of the question.
I think 7 days (used to be 7) so should be able to do it retro to last Thurs (the day after the last game they played.
I think, not 100% and, if so, not 100% that means they can be activated on next Thursday or not till Friday.
All right – huge morning. Wife teaching Power Hot Yoga in 20 min so I’m doing that hour class then heading for heavy legs for a good 90 minutes. Guess I’m rolling in to the office at 940 this morning and then leaving early for the 5pm game.
I think 7 days (used to be 7) so should be able to do it retro to last Thurs (the day after the last game they played.
I think, not 100% and, if so, not 100% that means they can be activated on next Thursday or not till Friday.
Is IR 7 days minimum or 10? Either way they should have some visibility on both guys by now.
Should be interesting to see the roster adjustment today in order to open up the spot for Sheahan – I think it’ll be Cave but it could be Russell. If one of Archibald or Chiasson isn’t good to go, they will probably IR him retro to last Thursday to make room.
I think Mikko should get the start but could see Tip going back to Smith.
My marker for McLeod isn’t going to be point production (that’s not going to be his main value generator should he make the NHL) but rather when the top-9 deployment goes from this:
Benson – Marody – Currie
Gambardella – Malone – Yamamoto
Maksimov – McLeod – Gagner
to this:
Benson – Marody – Currie
Gambardella – McLeod – Yamamoto
Maksimov – Malone – Gagner
As for Maksimov, this third line situation is definitely better for a winger than when Yamamoto was played outside of the top-six last year when the third line was Vesel and Polei, but he’s being eased in. Both of these scenarios are miles away from Benson/Marody’s rookie years and should be looked at as such – I’m looking less for overall point totals for both players and more for how quickly McLeod earns the coach’s trust at 5v5 and 4v5 and Maksimov’s goal-scoring rate and whether or not he’s getting PP1 time.
So, to answer your question in a roundabout way, I don’t think raw point production will be the most important arrow in the first place, firstly because of role and secondly because of player-identity.
I wouldn’t be hasty to set any thresholds besides the floor-level red flag ones.
Fair point. These are difficult trades to make and there’s risk you’re going to look bad.
In terms of knowing what you have, I agree on Nuge. It’s much less clear what Nurse is IMO and there’s still room for (read: reasonable expectation of) growth from him.
For me, if I’m re-signing one of them for 6 x $7M it’s Nurse. That’s on the high end for talk of Nurse’s next contract and the low end for expectations of Nuge’s next deal (acknowledging the Nurse contract would include 2 RFA years while Nuge’s would be all UFA years).
And if $7-8M is what it takes to re-sign Nuge past Summer 2021, well maybe Nuge for Ehlers is a win (knowing that Ehlers outscored Nuge in 2 of the past 3 seasons, is 3 years younger and is signed for $6M for 4 years beyond when Nuge becomes UFA).
All of this makes me a little queasy, but the thought of Nurse for Ehlers is even less appealing IMO.
I like nuge at 6 mil,, I would not go higher. well possibly a bit higher.. let’s see if he scores timely goals, short handed goals, ..
I would trade him if the right deal came along though..
What did Nuge with Kassian and Drei look like?
I think Neal scoring 2 goals and generally looking rejuvinated also shone some extra light on what Lucic really is.
Looch looked pretty attractive as replacement for a 7 goal scorer. If it was actually a 25 goal scorer, not so much…
So Lucic is to Tkachuk is as TP is to a-hole ! ( sorry about the spelling)
Showing myself out.
While I don’t necessarily disagree, the bottom line is you know what you have in Nuge or Nurse. Do you really know what you are getting when you make the trade? To improve the team you have to at a minimum get equal value in return. As I see it the risk reward scenario makes it a very difficult choice at best. It becomes the ultimate hero or goat scenario. While faint heart does not win fair maiden, a fool walks alone. Not a hill to die on!?
From accounts, in the 2nd game of the year, Lucic played like the Lucic we all remember so “fondly” from last year.
He was serviceable in the 1st game and the flames fans were generally on adrenaline from the protection and fight. Of course, they don’t take in to account the fact that Lucic’s:
– first game in Boston – fight
– first game in LA – match penalty
– first game in EDM – fight
– of course, the play in game one negated a PP in a close game.
Did Lucic’s presence on the ice, right by the play, negate the flame player from getting hit in a dangerous way? Nope.
You are taking an ultra conservative approach. Given what we have observed and what would be most advantageous for the team why would you not try the following:
Nygard McDavid Kassian
Jurco Draisaitl Neal
Khaira. Nuge. Haas
chiasson Sheahan Archibald
While I agree it is not without risk, if it works the result :
a) gets you in the playoffs
b) gives you a great base to build on
This gives you room for a trade deadline promotion of Yamamoto. This allows for Nuge to move up in the event of injury plus he is available for second power-play and or penalty kill as required. It also gives you the advantage of a righty lefty face-off player for pk duty. As I see it small downside for a very large upside.
I agree that Puljujarvi might not garner a 1st in return, but your comparison isn’t really at all fair.
Jesse was a top 5 pick 3 years ago. That completely different from someone who hasn’t produced that was drafted 5 or 7 or 10 years ago.
Alex Nylander was just traded for a late 1st rounder who’s a year younger and has played more NHL games than he has.
Nylander was drafted after Puljujarvi in 2016 and has been shy of his production/development every year, by any measure you can find.
Puljujarvi has played 139 NHL games before his 21st birthday, the man is still trending to be a valuable NHL player, even if not a top 5 pick.
(all this to say, I don’t think a late first in return would be crazy)
Yes but we’re our bums!
Whats the OVER / UNDER on Lucic Goals this season?
Line is 6
Geez every interview with Lucic is about protecting Tkapuke. Gag me with a spoon.
I dont think Jesse will ever be a BIG NHL point producer. LT has questioned the offense from the early days.
But I do think JP can be an effective NHL player for many years.
I like how Ken has handled the situation so far
TOP 10 Picks in the last 10 years that can be had.
Scott Glennie
Jared Cowen
Magnus Paajarvi
Erik Gudbrandson
Dylan Mcilrath
Nail Yakupov
Griffin Reinhart
Derrick Pouliot
Michael Dal Colle
and on & on…..
That doesnt count all the players picked 10-31.
I am surprised how many dont make it. Tough League
OriginalPouzar,
“Him being the consensus 3rd overall is all but a non-factor ”
+1.
Any GM could collect “former” high draft picks. After a few years; GM’s are looking at the player’s results. Probably always intrigued by draft slot but nothing more.
Don’t see anything he realistically does in Liiga bumping his value up to a 1st rounder.
Him being the consensus 3rd overall is all but a non-factor – its not leading to any value now.
He can definitely increase his value but I can’t imagine that much, in particular in 2 months.
I really like Nuge but I have to agree.
This is the key question though.
I’m having a tough time with the answer. It’s a lot like the Nurse trade talk, it really depends what the cost to re-sign is. I certainly would be happier to retain both players at a reasonable price (but what is reasonable?!?!).
But doesn’t that also describe us??
Yes. That would be ideal. 2020 25th overall for 2016 consensus 3rd overall.
Good points, all players need to attack aggressively while staying smart. The less ability to put up points the more balls out players need to be to have a decent career.
To me with young teams (especially skilled) you let them run and get the O humming and then start reigning them in.
I’m not sure it works well the other way.
They have a pretty bland roster IMO, with a couple of good players.
They live and die by Trotz and goalies.
Goes to show how a disciplined happy team is always a formidable opponent. Small sample size but nobody is lighting it up points wise but only Leddy is minus. Lousy stat yes but my point is everyone is outscoring.
The Oilers can certainly also do this. Check out their D Corp. Yikes.
Sure, potentially, but 1st round pick?
Oilers have a 23 man roster without Sheahan.
Firstly, in my opinion, Nuge doesn’t need to want to play there, Nuge needs to do what the coach asks (tells) him to do for his $6M per. Yes, I get it, it would/should/could be beneficial for the org to keep Nuge happy vis-a-vis his willingness to re-sign, however, the coach needs to deploy his 23 man roster in the way that he believes gives the team the best chance to win each and every game night and Nuge’s future contract status should have no bearing. If the coach feels Nuge at 3C with two middling offensive wingers provides that chance, he needs to deploy accordingly.
Further, Nuge’s boxcars in 2020/21 will have a much greater impact on his next contract that those this season.
Not to mention, given his new AAV will be no less than $6M and likely/potentially a few million higher, perhaps the organization will not want to re-sign him for that money. Part of that depends on the development of a guy like Ryan McLeod. No he will not be anywhere near as valuable as Nuge in two years but he could be a serviceable (or even plus) 3C on an ELC and McLeod plus $6M to $8M in cap space – whatever Nuge would sign for less McLeod’s ELC hit), may be more beneficial than Nuge himself.
Yes, all trade options should be explored, however, with two full years left, I only pull the trigger on a Nuge deal if its a clear and explicit/express win.
Which wingers qualify though? I need some names!
Yeah, we’re discussing the 14th forward, I don’t think it matters much either.
Agree with this 100%.
Don’t think they’ve received much, if any, PP time in the first two games.
They are getting solid PK minutes though, as a pair, and that is fantastic.
I agree with your assessment of a successful season by each of them.
I don’t want to put a cap on McLeod’s ceiling but, given his junior offence, top 6 seems unlikely and his path to the NHL is likely a 3C – with his speed and size, combined with decent skill and IQ, if he can learn to “go to the hard areas” and put in 100%, he could be a very good one.
For Maksi, although I have dreams of him gelling with one of our elite C’s with his elite shot (including release) and scoring 30-40, its more likely that he’s a middle 6 or 2-way type guy.
Their 2-way/PK development, which seems to be a focus of the staff, is key.
+1
I think the only reason PIT would trade for Cave, even in their situation, is to get rid of a contract in order to take one on – they are at 48.
Colby Cave is a 14th forward, at best, even with a league min salary, he doesn’t have any trade value in my opinion.
Explore it for sure though, no harm.
Ovie spent the 9th most time on the ice for forward vs. the empty net last year – lots of opportunity to score in to the empty net. At the same time, he was trusted in those defensive situations the 2nd most on his team (essentially tied with Tom Wilson) quite a bit less than Backstrom.
Leon was 73 in the NHL, almost a full 10 minutes less than Ovie but tops among forwards (essentially tied with Nuge).
Not sure that really has anything to do with anything regarding if the goals “should count”, but there it is.
Valid questions.
I don’t think their 5 on 5 ice time will be an issue – Woody is focused on developing prospects along with winning and does generally roll the lines at evens.
I would expect their boxcars to be lower than we saw from Benson and the older Marody as they aren’t getting PP time at this point. They are playing with Gagner at evens and the line was getting offensive chances in the first game.
They are getting solid PK minutes, as a pair, and that is great.
I would expect McLeod’s offensive numbers to be far less than Benson’s as he’s simply not at Benson’s level of offensive talent. Maksimov is a goal scorer and 2-way player (including PK) and I would expect lower point totals from him as well but he should score some goals once he earns more PP time.
Lets not forget, there will be call-ups to the NHL when injuries hit and, if they’ve earned it, they will move up the lineup.
Veteran leaders and mentors are needed and Malone plays his role great and Gagner is looking to do the same. Also, they are both plus AHL players and team success is important to player development as well.
I’d trade RNH for a cost controlled comparably talented winger in a second.
The guy relies on talented linemates to produce at ES, and his defensive game isn’t as good as its billed IMO.
I feel like the Oilers will regret giving him the $8 million per season going rate for centers that have hit 60 points.