Chapter One

An NHL roster is 23 bets. Not every roster bet is equal. Connor McDavid is a rare gem, that’s a wonderful bet. What about the No. 3 center? He’s important, but you’re really just trying to deploy one of the best 100 centers on the planet in the role. Right?

You’re not asking as much from that third center. Score as much as the other guy, call it a day. But he has to be competitive compared to other NHL No. 3 centers.

Ken Holland bought inside (Riley Sheahan) and outside (Gaetan Haas) the NHL to address the pivot position. He has some information, maybe one chapter, on Haas. The road beckons. What should Dave Tippett do?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions here.

  • New Lowetide: Keeping an eye on Jesse Puljujarvi: Which teams could emerge as potential trade partners?
  • New Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto’s fast start in the AHL highlights an active week for Oilers prospects
  • Lowetide: A shift-by-shift analysis of Ethan Bear in the Oilers’ season opener
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Looking at how the Oilers can manage on defence without Adam Larsson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: No need to temper expectations after Connor McDavid’s season debut for Oilers
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland has a plan for the Oilers’ top prospects.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: At home with Ken Holland: Packing away the championship memories and preparing for a new challenge
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
  • Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
  • Lowetide: The Oilers are poised to break a 25-year-old franchise record this season
  • Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft’s Bakersfield Condors might be bound for glory
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS AFTER TWO GAMES

Through two games the top six forwards have delivered seven goals, bottom six one (I’m counting Nygard bottom six). All top-six forwards save Nuge and Chiasson have posted at least one goal. You’d like more goals from the bottom six, but one goal in two games works out to 41 over a season. Would you be pleased with 41 goals from a bottom six forward group? Last year, Edmonton’s bottom six scored 28. Meaning, the Nygard goal puts this year’s group a full game ahead of last year. Score again Tuesday and we’ll call it an eruption!

CONDORS AFTER TWO GAMES

These lines and pairings are mostly a guess based on players on the ice when goals were scored. I watched the Friday night game, didn’t see any of Saturday. I’ll say this: Caleb Jones is a helluva player based on what I saw Friday. The Currie goal that night was impressive and involved pretty much every Condor on the ice. It started with Jones separating player from puck and getting an outlet pass to safety. Only two men have scored for Bakersfield. I don’t think Ryan McLeod will get 30 points this season, but with those two linemates he could post a handsome number.

EARLY HAAS

Gaetan Haas is at 4.72 points-per-60 even strength (all number NTS). It’s miles too early to discuss these numbers, let alone trust them. He has played 12 minutes five-on-five in the NHL.

I’m wondering today what Dave Tippett is planning. Can he run McDavid, Nuge, Haas and Riley Sheahan up the middle? Or, should he slide Leon Draisaitl back to the center position. Here’s what that might look like:

  • Joakim Nygard-Connor McDavid-James Neal
  • Tomas Jurco-Leon Draisaitl-Zack Kassian
  • Markus Granlund-Nuge-Alex Chiasson
  • Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald
  • Extras: Gaetan Haas, Colby Cave

This assumes that Patrick Russell is sent to Bakersfield (it might be Cave).

EXPECTED GOALS

This is the brilliant work of Sean Tierney and is something we would wise to follow all year long. McDavid’s circle is just below Draisaitl’s, and Haas is about equal with Lawson Crouse. I’m going to run these once a week during the season. Check out Tierney. He’s smart.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We get rolling for a week that ends with turkey and I am SO excited! We’ll also talk sports! At 10:20, Andy McNamara explains the NFL weekend, and I’m going to need some help figuring out how the Cowboys and Eagles are 3-2 this morning. Jason Gregor pops in to discuss Oilers and Eskimos at 11, with Gabe Lacques from USA Today talkin’ baseball at 11:25. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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157 Responses to "Chapter One"

  1. Caribbeerman says:

    These lines work for me save for Granlund who has been ineffective thus far this season. Replace him with one of your Jessie trade options (Athletic) and then maybe we’re talking.

    Joakim Nygard-Connor McDavid-James Neal
    Tomas Jurco-Leon Draisaitl-Zack Kassian
    Markus Granlund-Nuge-Alex Chiasson
    Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald

  2. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – One of the reasons for my “optimistic” scenario for the Oil, was when some of the top D miss their inevitable games, this year’s batch of call-ups have much more promise (could do same for F’s):

    Jones, Bear, Lagesson, Bouchard etc >>> Garrison, Gravel, Petro, Wideman, Autivu, etc

    – We finally have some draft and development, who can move up, rather than cast-aways, never-beens, or final destination D’s.

    – This improvement to the bottom part of the 23 man-roster that LT talks about is significant

    – I am the only person on this blog who has said this: every other poster sees it differently. They are wrong, so I am here to teach them lessons: that’s what I’m about: haha: joking…

  3. pts2pndr says:

    The line of Draisaitl, Neal and Jurco were very good in preseason. I wonder if putting them together and having a first line of McDavid, Kassian and Nygard would be a better balance. This way you would have a faster McDavid line and a bit more skill on the Draisaitl line.

  4. McNuge93 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – One of the reasons for my “optimistic” scenario for the Oil, was when some of the top D miss their inevitable games, this year’s batch of call-ups have much more promise (could do same for F’s):

    Jones, Bear, Lagesson, Bouchard etc >>> Garrison, Gravel, Petro, Wideman, Autivu, etc

    – We finally have some draft and development, who can move up, rather than cast-aways, never-beens, or final destination D’s.

    – This improvement to the bottom part of the 23 man-roster that LT talks about is significant

    – Now I know I am the only person on this blog who has said this: every other poster sees it differently, and they are wrong, so I am here to teach them lessons:haha: joking…

    I think a lot of us are eager to see how Bear, Lagesson, Persson, Jones and Bouchard develop this year. And they certainly have that opportunity to prove if they are NHL ready the way the roster is structured. We need to find out this year as I think Holland will need to make decisions next summer and we will lose 1 or 2 of them. I’m agnostic, I don’t care who wins the day as long as a couple of them step up and actually prove they are ready. Bouchard is a special case though. We are all counting on him to, in time’ actually be that high end, power play quarterback we have been longing for.

  5. so polar says:

    Care to link to what you mean by Tierney’s expected goals, LT? If it’s on his tiwtter, it just simply doesn’t load for me. Apologies if I’ve just missed it. A quick google led me to nothing discernibly oilers.

  6. oilersfan says:

    neal’s best yeArs in the nhl were with Malkin not Crosby.

    I woukd prefer to keep Kassian with McDavid and Jurco, Draisaitl with Neal and Nygard

    Nuge with Khaira and Chiasson

    Sheahan with Granlund and Archibald

    Keep Haas and Russel, send cave down

  7. Pretendergast says:

    JP vs Broberg tomorrow, here’s hoping they both succeed, but I’m cheering for Broberg cause ya know, he wants to play for us.

  8. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Poor Nuge will score zero with Chiasson/Khaira

  9. Yeti says:

    > Gaetan Haas is at 1.24 points-per-60 five on five (all number NTS) and is over 50 percent in possession and faceoffs. It’s miles too early to discuss these numbers, let alone trust them. He has played 48 minutes five-on-five in the NHL.

    That can’t be true can it? Maybe 4.8 minutes across the two games?

  10. JJS says:

    We have been gifted the perfect schedule as we continue to sort out our lines

    Any other year, and we would be toast by Halloween!

  11. jm363561 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – One of the reasons for my “optimistic” scenario for the Oil, was when some of the top D miss their inevitable games, this year’s batch of call-ups have much more promise (could do same for F’s):

    Jones, Bear, Lagesson, Bouchard etc >>> Garrison, Gravel, Petro, Wideman, Autivu, etc

    – We finally have some draft and development, who can move up, rather than cast-aways, never-beens, or final destination D’s.

    =====

    The pipeline of promising D is astonishing for an Oiler fan. Understandably you do not mention (25 year old) Joel Persson but his performance against LAK was very promising. He has no NHL experience, much to learn, and arguably should be playing no higher than third pairing. I hope his career is not Schultzed.

    Now we just need Yamo and the JP replacement to inject some depth and hope into the top 9 and I might start to see some light at the end of the tunnel.

  12. Eh Team says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Poor Nuge will score zero with Chiasson/Khaira

    Can’t really bury Nuge with these linemates. It will negate his offense and they really need Nuge’s socring to supplement McDavid and Drai.

  13. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jm363561,

    – Yeah, for Persson, don’t know yet if he is an Autivu, or a serviceable D at the NHL level.

    – But between all current non-NHL D that we can lean on, pretty confident that their net “potential to become NHL D” is far greater than what we’ve had for many years.

    – That’s a big difference: the weakest link, by “rising” the bottom is a lot higher from draft + development IMO

    – Collectively, the 100 games (+/-) that D who aren’t on the opening day roster is going to give a lot better performance than in previous years, and that matters a lot for overall results (at least that was part of premise for a potential much better year)

  14. HT Joe says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Poor Nuge will score zero with Chiasson/Khaira

    Didn’t Drai do pretty well with Chiasson and Khaira? It’s not ideal (obviously) but unless Drai and McDavid are on the same line still, their linemates won’t be that much better.

    *Caveat* I’m starting to get hopeful about a Neal bounce-back season. 😀

  15. Darth Tu says:

    Yeti:
    > Gaetan Haas is at 1.24 points-per-60 five on five (all number NTS) and is over 50 percent in possession and faceoffs. It’s miles too early to discuss these numbers, let alone trust them. He has played 48 minutes five-on-five in the NHL.

    That can’t be true can it? Maybe 4.8 minutes across the two games?

    Has LT included pre-season? That’s what I’m guessing with 48 mins five on five.

  16. Andy Dufresne says:

    Average age of Oilers NHL Roster (not including goalies) …. 26.2

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think we are passed the waiver deadline for today and I haven’t seen any word that P. Russell or C. Cave have been put on waivers.

    What does this mean for Sheahan and tomorrow? Is he not activated? That would be a disappointment. Are they going to re-assign Haas? It would be a shame if he goes over Cave.

    They could send Manning down but I don’t imagine they do with no extra D while out on the east coast.

  18. Andy Dufresne says:

    Look at that chart!

    Kass is a Beauty !

    Khaira needs to step it up to earn his spot in the bottom 6 at $1.2m

  19. OriginalPouzar says:

    Karpat (Puljujarvi) plays Skelfeeta (Broberg and Berglund) tomorrow in Champions League.

    All the games are streamed on the CHL (Champions Hockey League) website and the stream is good (or has been in the past).

    The exact time is unknown – perhaps around 10am but likely starting sometime between 10am and 2pm.

    https://www.championshockeyleague.com/en/schedule#select_schedule=0

  20. Ryan says:

    Encino man has had a rough start to the season. His CF is in the 20’s. Replacing him with Sheahan should hopefully move the dial forward (just because Cave has been so bad thus far).

    JJ is on the bad “tier,” okay quadrant (I tried to work that in) on the Tierney chart too. Hopefully he rebound with a different centre.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Joakim Nygard-Connor McDavid-James Neal
    Tomas Jurco-Leon Draisaitl-Zack Kassian

    I can’t remember who it was but someone on here made a solid point the other day about needed to split McDavid and Drai on the road to giving the opposing coach, with last change, lineup fits. I think that made alot of sense and I hope to see it.

    I like the above two lines based on Kass/Drai in game 1 – I would personally switch Nygard and Jurco.

  22. Andy Dufresne says:

    Headline:

    Son of Chucky, Axed !

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    The boxcars don’t do Yamamoto’s early start credence. Yes, 2 goals in 2 games looks great but he looked even better on the ice. He was the best player on the ice, both teams, in both games.

    I watched every second of the first game but only had the second game on in the background as the Oilers do take priority but, from what I did see and the accounts of those that did watch, the performance was the same – creating offence consistently from the opening faceoff.

    Here is hoping some depth scoring can continue for the Oilers so management doesn’t consider bringing Kailer up.

    I would love to see him get 68 AHL games (plus playoffs) but, if he continues to perform like this for 40 or so, a call-up consideration wouldn’t be egregious in my mind.

  24. Andy Dufresne says:

    Look at that Chart:

    Phiidelphia Flyers building a ring road in the North East.

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    Looks like another Finish Jesse interview:

    https://twitter.com/LonnbergMari/status/1181235700257234945

    Mari Lönnberg
    @LonnbergMari
    Jesse was asked how he got along living in Canada, Jesse compared Edmonton to Finland – cold Winters and a big fan culture. Jesse said Edmonton was a nice place and easy to adjust. After three years he thinks he is mentally and physically more prepared.

  26. Andy Dufresne says:

    Line of the day from the Lowdown with Lowetide:

    Andy Macnamara: “Make a wish day”

  27. jp says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Poor Nuge will score zero with Chiasson/Khaira

    Maybe. Nuge scored almost as many of his points on the PP as he did 5v5, that’s where his offensive spike last year came from.

    Overall he was 1.75P/60 5v5. 1.69 with Khaira and 1.04 with Chiasson, and under 40% OZ starts with each player. They’re not going to help him score more but it might not be a huge drop off. All their on ice results were sparkling in a tiny 21 minute sample as a trio too FWIW (little to nothing).

    HT Joe: Didn’t Drai do pretty well with Chiasson and Khaira?It’s not ideal (obviously) but unless Drai and McDavid are on the same line still, their linemates won’t be that much better.

    *Caveat* I’m starting to get hopeful about a Neal bounce-back season.

    They played even less as a trio (under 17 minutes).

    Draisaitl scored 1.38/60 with Chiasson and 5.61/60!! with Khaira (but just 42 minutes). 2.57/60 overall, so actually a bigger drop in Leon’s scoring with Chaisson than for Nuge.

    Draisaitl-Chiasson did play a lot together (550 minutes) and managed 56%GF. The underlying metrics (Corsi, Fenwick, shots) were ~47%, so 56% goals probably isn’t repeatable. It’s worth noting that Draisaitl’s overall shots/corsi/fenwick were all 47-48%, so he wasn’t worse with Chiasson than anyone else non-McDavid (and Draisaitl-Chiasson did still outscore without McDavid, 8GF-7GA).

    I’d like to see McDavid/Draisaitl/Nuge on 3 lines, but realize it’s difficult for multiple reasons (wingers, TOI). Nuge-Draisaitl would be my preference otherwise to give McDavid a real shot to carry his own line.

    I’d still like to see these TC lines revisited:
    Jurco-McDavid-Neal
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Kassian

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think we are passed the waiver deadline for today and I haven’t seen any word that P. Russell or C. Cave have been put on waivers.

    What does this mean for Sheahan and tomorrow? Is he not activated?That would be a disappointment.Are they going to re-assign Haas? It would be a shame if he goes over Cave.

    They could send Manning down but I don’t imagine they do with no extra D while out on the east coast.

    Thinking about this a bit more, I think they may IR one of the sick guys (retroactively to last Thursday, the day after the game).

  29. Andy Dufresne says:

    Watched two sporting events this weekend: Oilers Kings and Raiders Bears from England.

    It was like riding the Kingda Ka* rollercoaster……TWICE !
    .
    .
    .

    *At 456-feet tall with a 416-foot drop from the first hill, the Kingda Ka at Six Flags Great Adventure in New Jersey is one of only two Strata roller coasters (those dropping over 400 feet). Not only is it crazy-tall, but it has the longest initial drop

  30. oilersfan says:

    Nuge has said he likes to play with Khaira and feels they play well together

    Chiasson is slow but thinks the game well, is big, and has an awesome shot/release

    Maybe a more skilled winger than him would be the best third player for that line but options are limited

  31. Pouzar says:

    oilersfan: Nuge has said he likes to play with Khaira and feels they play well together

    I wouldn’t be mad at that.

    Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
    Khaira-Nuge-Neal
    Nygard-Haas-Jurco

  32. pts2pndr says:

    Eh Team: Can’t really bury Nuge with these linemates.It will negate his offense and they really need Nuge’s socring to supplement McDavid and Drai.

    If you are playing nuge on a third line with Draisaitl and McDavid driving their own lines you don’t need To necessarily require Nuge line to supplement at all. You could play him centre on a line with Khaira and Hass. It gives you a righty lefty centre for defensive zone face offs and a very sound two way line. The fourth line would then be Granlund ,Sheahan, Archibald.

  33. John Chambers says:

    JJS:
    We have been gifted the perfect schedule as we continue to sort out our lines

    Any other year, and we would be toast by Halloween!

    Right?

    The Oilers first 10 games are against the bottom-half of the league. After this “soft opening stretch” the Oilers could be 8-2.

    November will be a time for reckoning unless Tippett can figure out the correct formula for the roster.

  34. rickithebear says:

    Yeti:
    You just refered to a new stat site NTS?
    Have seen NTS refered to before.
    By who I do not know.

    Unless it is a reference to Natural Stat Trick?
    NST

    Then Cool.
    Each person is an island.
    Diffrent dialects are found on difrent Islands.

    Yes means
    Brain is still able to infer intent over spelling.
    In these Cancer med times.

  35. Rich M says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Headline:

    Son of Chucky, Axed !

    Actually his bro (but I get where you’re going).

  36. rickithebear says:

    John Chambers: Right?

    The Oilers first 10 games are against the bottom-half of the league. After this “soft opening stretch” the Oilers could be 8-2.

    November will be a time for reckoning unless Tippett can figure out the correct formula for the roster.

    Formula.
    2-3 GA given up per gm by HD area def structure in 3 Phases (Ev,PK, & god forbid PP)

    As many top Open HD density D pairs.
    With forwards picking up 4/5th D options so they are not uncovered.

  37. Reja says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Look at that chart!

    Kass is a Beauty !

    Khaira needs to step it up to earn his spot in the bottom 6 at $1.2m

    Khaira needs to assert himself and be more physical in the corners as well as driving to the net. If he does crank it up a notch it’ll open much needed room for his mates

  38. HugThePost says:

    Rich M: Actually his bro (but I get where you’re going).

    What’s a more classless lowbrow move? Firing someone over Skype or the team owner and gm summoning the HC for a 5am meeting to tell the poor guy he’s fired?

  39. rickithebear says:

    18/19
    Gravel 36gm 467 ev min; 2.18 evga/60; +.44 goals/60
    Garrsion 17gm 178 ev min; 1.68 evga/60; +.94 goals/60

    The off role of any dman is to get the puck to the top 10-11 forwards who are better at generating evg.
    Their are about 5 d each year who are better than 4 th line but are almost allways bottom 40 evga/60.
    Zero justification for them trying for goals.

    That has held even in the last 2 season that have seen a jump from 2.39 evg/60 to 2.64 evg/60.

    Holland says it best 4/5th option.
    Visually noticed a high ratio of 4/5th success ( giordano stood out) over the years but did not start to break down all d goals By abandonment or 4/5th till this yr.

  40. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: I’d still like to see these TC lines revisited:
    Jurco-McDavid-Neal
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Kassian

    As would I. And the bottom-6 would look like this:

    Khaira-Sheahan-Archibald
    Nygard-Haas-Chiasson

    Granlund / Russell
    Cave waived

  41. McSorley33 says:

    Put me in the firmly load up line 2 camp – McDavid will draw the best D -obviously.

    Thought Drai, RNH and Kass looked real good on their own…..they need to own 2nd best D pairs.

    Give McDavid Nygard and Jurco.

    Need a loaded line 2.

    Then pray when lines 3 and 4 are on…..

  42. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    The boxcars don’t do Yamamoto’s early start credence.Yes, 2 goals in 2 games looks great but he looked even better on the ice.He was the best player on the ice, both teams, in both games.

    I watched every second of the first game but only had the second game on in the background as the Oilers do take priority but, from what I did see and the accounts of those that did watch, the performance was the same – creating offence consistently from the opening faceoff.

    Here is hoping some depth scoring can continue for the Oilers so management doesn’t consider bringing Kailer up.

    I would love to see him get 68 AHL games (plus playoffs) but, if he continues to perform like this for 40 or so, a call-up consideration wouldn’t be egregious in my mind.

    I’m pretty sure the concensus here was that Yamo is a failed prospect. Not sure what games you are watching, but once a prospect is written off by Oiler fans, it shall be law.

    Don’t start hyperventilating OP. I’m responding to you because I know you’ve tried to put that nonsense into perspective.

  43. Professor Q says:

    HugThePost: What’s a more classless lowbrow move?Firing someone over Skype or the team owner and gm summoning the HC for a 5am meeting to tell the poor guy he’s fired?

    At the same time as actively tanking while also refusing to trade your most valuable asset for a 1st round pick (which would help said tank) and making him sit out the year out of spite?

  44. rickithebear says:

    Once again in 18/19
    Evg by position

    1st line top 32
    LW 16 evg; 1 every 5.13 gm
    C 19 evg; 1 every 4.32 gm
    RW 16 evg

    2 Nd line top 62
    LW 10 evg; 1 every 8.2gm
    C 13 evg; 1 every 6.31 gm
    RW 10 evg

    3 rd line top 93
    LW 6 evg; 1 every 13.67 gm
    C 11 evg; 1 every 7.45gm
    RW 4 evg; 1 every 20.5 gm

    Just a little facts ( reality) for anyone complaining about goal production from our bottom 6, 2 games in.

  45. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: As would I. And the bottom-6 would look like this:

    Khaira-Sheahan-Archibald
    Nygard-Haas-Chiasson

    Granlund / Russell
    Cave waived

    Fully agree. Though I don’t feel strongly about whether Cave or Russell is waived. Having the extra C on the roster isn’t without value.

  46. Woogie63 says:

    If Nuge plays in the top 6 he has to be a winger.

  47. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    rickithebear:
    18/19
    Gravel 36gm 467 ev min;2.18 evga/60; +.44 goals/60
    Garrsion 17gm 178 ev min; 1.68 evga/60; +.94 goals/60

    – Ricki : I’m not sure if you are saying Gravel and Garrison were/are good?

    – They aren’t in hockey anymore.

    – I posited that one of the reason’s for hope for this team is that they are moving away from the Gravel’s and Garrisons (who can’t skate, don’t shoot, pass poorly, no longer NHL D etc), to guys who can move the puck and more mobile, like any/all of: Bear, Jones, Bouchard, Perrsson, etc

    – I would be highly skeptical that you are right and Gravel and Garrison ought to be NHL D: just the opposite: our team was hurt because they were the subs when our full-time D went down

  48. Ryan says:

    so polar:
    Care to link to what you mean by Tierney’s expected goals, LT? If it’s on his tiwtter, it just simply doesn’t load for me. Apologies if I’ve just missed it. A quick google led me to nothing discernibly oilers.

    Here’s Tierney’s Tableau page.

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/sean.tierney#!/

    He doesn’t create the data, he gets it from Evolving Wild: https://evolving-hockey.com/

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: Thinking about this a bit more, I think they may IR one of the sick guys (retroactively to last Thursday, the day after the game).

    Seems like they can put someone on waivers tomorrow and deem them “non-roster” to open up the roster spot same day so, presumably, one of Russell or Cave gets waived tomorrow.

    I wonder if they brought that person on the plane to New York only to have to fly back west tomorrow?

  50. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Found this too. https://rpubs.com/evolvingwild/395136/

    I nominate So Polar to create a Cole’s notes version.

  51. MADOIL says:

    Pouzar: I wouldn’t be mad at that.

    Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
    Khaira-Nuge-Neal
    Nygard-Haas-Jurco

    Yeah! I agree with Pouzar. A forward lineup as this would be quite solid imo.

    Jurco- McDavid-Kassian
    Nygard-Dari-Neal
    Khaira-Nuge-Haas
    Gran-Sheahan-Arch

  52. ArmchairGM says:

    If anyone is interested in scoping out the competition for tomorrow, take a look at the replay below. The Islanders walked all over the Jets in the 2nd period and Barzal was fire the whole game. This won’t be an easy out for the Oilers.

    https://www.nhl.com/video/wpg–nyi/t-277350912/c-69416903

  53. Lightgestalt says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Karpat (Puljujarvi) plays Skelfeeta (Broberg and Berglund) tomorrow in Champions League.

    All the games are streamed on the CHL (Champions Hockey League) website and the stream is good (or has been in the past).

    The exact time is unknown – perhaps around 10am but likely starting sometime between 10am and 2pm.

    https://www.championshockeyleague.com/en/schedule#select_schedule=0

    Thank you for providing the link!
    The Website it directs to says 18:00, so 6 p.m. MESZ , so 10 a.m. in Edmonton I think (not entirely sure).

  54. ArmchairGM says:

    McSorley33:
    Put me in the firmly load up line 2 camp – McDavid will draw the best D -obviously.

    Thought Drai, RNH and Kass looked real good on their own…..they need to own 2nd best D pairs.

    Give McDavid Nygard and Jurco.

    Need a loaded line 2.

    Then pray when lines 3 and 4 are on…..

    Where does Neal play?

  55. Rich M says:

    HugThePost,

    Did they make him have to grab a cab home?

  56. PennersPancakes says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    +1 Agree with all of this.

    I’m sorry but obviously the math is looking at the wrong things if Manning, Fayne, Garisson, & Gravel (etc.) are what win you cups. Its tough to take a serious look because honestly whats the point?

    This is a case of smartest man in the room but since those players arent even in the league/are ahl call ups it looks more like smartest guy in the NHL. Im going to be skeptical of the last statement and continue to skim through those posts.

  57. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Fully agree. Though I don’t feel strongly about whether Cave or Russell is waived. Having the extra C on the roster isn’t without value.

    I like Russell’s energy. You have a point about Cave being is a center, but I’m not too worried as all of Khaira, Sheahan, Granlund and Haas can take faceoffs, so that’s 4 bottom-6 guys.

    In any case, it seems like Tippett is putting out the top-6 for faceoffs almost exclusively: of the 92 faceoffs Edmonton has had over the 2 games, Draisaitl has taken 32, McDavid 19, Nugent-Hopkins 17, Neal 2 and Nygard 1. That’s nearly 80% of the faceoffs. For the other 21 faceoffs, we’ve seen Haas take 11, Cave 8, Granlund 1 and Khaira 1. Sheahan averaged 11.4 faceoffs per game in Florida last year and won 54.9% of them. We won’t miss Cave.

  58. ArmchairGM says:

    ArmchairGM: I like Russell’s energy. You have a point about Cave being is a center, but I’m not too worried as all of Khaira, Sheahan, Granlund and Haas can take faceoffs, so that’s 4 bottom-6 guys.

    In any case, it seems like Tippett is putting out the top-6 for faceoffs almost exclusively: of the 92 faceoffs Edmonton has had over the 2 games, Draisaitl has taken 32, McDavid 19, Nugent-Hopkins 17, Neal 2 and Nygard 1. That’s nearly 80% of the faceoffs. For the other 21 faceoffs, we’ve seen Haas take 11, Cave 8, Granlund 1 and Khaira 1. Sheahan averaged 11.4 faceoffs per game in Florida last year and won 54.9% of them. We won’t miss Cave.

    Faceoffs winning percentages for reference:

    Draisaitl: 46.88%
    McDavid: 63.16
    Nugent-Hopkins: 58.82
    Haas: 45.45*
    Cave: 62.50

    *I’m pretty sure the faceoff that led to the Nygard goal would have been counted as a loss. In any case, Haas was 0-2 at the dot against Vancouver and 5-4 against LA.

  59. Ivan says:

    rickithebear,

    Beat the shit outta that cancer, Ricki! we need you around here.
    We may not always understand what you’re saying, but its always interesting!

  60. Yeti says:

    rickithebear: Yeti:
    You just refered to a new stat site NTS?
    Have seen NTS refered to before.
    By who I do not know.

    Wasn’t me, I’m afraid. Must have been a different and more sophisticated poster.

  61. McSorley33 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Where does Neal play?
    *********************************************************
    Good catch.

    McDavid gets Neal – with Jurco.

    Nygard – Sheehan – Archibald
    Khaira – Haas – Chaser

    Tipp is free to flip Archibald and Chaser around.

  62. Reja says:

    Give it fortnight and more injuries ( Malkin) will happen around the league Jesse’s stock will go up.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    KingerOilRedux:
    – One of the reasons for my “optimistic” scenario for the Oil, was when some of the top D miss their inevitable games, this year’s batch of call-ups have much more promise (could do same for F’s):

    Jones, Bear, Lagesson, Bouchard etc Garrison, Gravel, Petro, Wideman, Autivu, etc

    – We finally have some draft and development, who can move up, rather than cast-aways, never-beens, or final destination D’s.

    – This improvement to the bottom part of the 23 man-roster that LT talks about is significant

    – I am the only person on this blog who has said this: every other poster sees it differently. They are wrong, so I am here to teach them lessons: that’s what I’m about:haha: joking…

    Agreed Kinger and I also mentioned this as a positive factor going in to the season – finally, for the first time in a very long time, NHL ready prospects, real skilled prospects with potential, chomping at the bit for a call-up when injury happens.

    We are already seeing this have an effect this season.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    pts&pndr:
    The line of Draisaitl, Neal and Jurco were very good in preseason. I wonder if putting them together and having a first line of McDavid,Kassian and Nygard would be a better balance. This way you would have a faster McDavid line and a bit more skill on the Draisaitl line.

    Fair enough but I put more in to Drai/Kass (sans McDavid) in game 1 of the regular season

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    EhTeam: Can’t really bury Nuge with these linemates.It will negate his offense and they really need Nuge’s socring to supplement McDavid and Drai.

    If McDavid and Drai are both leading out-scoring lines, the third line (and fourth line) doesn’t need to be outscoring but sawing off. With Nuge on the third line against the soft parade, I have little doubt that line can win most nights.

  66. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja:
    Give it fortnight and more injuries ( Malkin) will happen around the league Jesse’s stock will go up.

    JP to PIT for their 2020 1st? I think I’d do it.

  67. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: JP to PIT for their 2020 1st? I think I’d do it.

    Someone’s going to bite soon wether it be as a result of injury with a poor record or just Plain sucking the hind tit. Jesse and Gagner for Centre-winter who needs a change of scenery. Speaking change of scenery sure was hoping Neal would have gotten the hat-trick.

  68. Reja says:

    Reja: Someone’s going to bite soon wether it be as a result of injury with a poor record or just Plainsucking the hind tit. Jesse and Gagnerfor Centre-winter who needs a change of scenery. Speaking change of scenery sure was hoping Neal would have gotten the hat-trick.

    How about Jesse, Gagner and a draft pick or Jesse Gagner and one of our D for a Forward. It’s the 3 for 1 it’s the 3 for 1.

  69. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja: Someone’s going to bite soon wether it be as a result of injury with a poor record or just Plainsucking the hind tit. Jesse and Gagnerfor Centre-winter who needs a change of scenery. Speaking change of scenery sure was hoping Neal would have gotten the hat-trick.

    I like hat-tricks as much as anyone, but I wanted Draisaitl to get that one. I really want to see him prove all the doubters wrong with another 50-goal campaign.

  70. ArmchairGM says:

    Reja: How about Jesse, Gagner and a draft pick or Jesse Gagner and one of our D for a Forward. It’s the 3 for1 it’s the 3 for 1.

    It’s gonna hafta be someone good.

  71. pts2pndr says:

    John Chambers: Right?

    The Oilers first 10 games are against the bottom-half of the league. After this “soft opening stretch” the Oilers could be 8-2.

    November will be a time for reckoning unless Tippett can figure out the correct formula for the roster.

    Given the roster turn over where we are was to be expected as far as uncertainty. The good news is we have four points in the bank and a number of players new to the roster are showing promise. I am of the belief that there will be some bumps and or growing pains along the way but by the trade deadline we will have a much better idea as to where we are as a team. This will allow us to make a few changes at that time with an eye to what is required to be a perennial challenger not only for the playoffs but quite possibly another cup. We now have some talent at the minor league level that can be brought up to help the big team or moved for a player to fill a need. In my opinion it is the dawning of a new day!

  72. Side says:

    ArmchairGM: I like hat-tricks as much as anyone, but I wanted Draisaitl to get that one. I really want to see him prove all the doubters wrong with another 50-goal campaign.

    These people can never be proven wrong, they are expert goal post movers.

    “…but anyone can score 50 playing next to McDavid…..”

  73. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: I like hat-tricks as much as anyone, but I wanted Draisaitl to get that one. I really want to see him prove all the doubters wrong with another 50-goal campaign.

    If Connor wasn’t Captain Leon would be how many 50 goal men or as unselfish as Leon.

  74. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: JP to PIT for their 2020 1st? I think I’d do it.

    A first and a conditional pick if they get to the cup final.😉

  75. Ryan says:

    ArmchairGM: I like hat-tricks as much as anyone, but I wanted Draisaitl to get that one. I really want to see him prove all the doubters wrong with another 50-goal campaign.

    Leon has no luck at all with the empty nets.

  76. pts2pndr says:

    Reja: How about Jesse, Gagner and a draft pick or Jesse Gagner and one of our D for a Forward. It’s the 3 for1 it’s the 3 for 1.

    I would do that id the forward coming back is Boone Jenner. 🤩

  77. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: It’s gonna hafta be someone good.

    If we’re let’s say 10-5 or better after 15 games Holland’s going for it. Let’s bring back
    Na Na Na Hey Hey Say Goodbye.

  78. McSorley33 says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Karpat (Puljujarvi) plays Skelfeeta (Broberg and Berglund) tomorrow in Champions League.

    All the games are streamed on the CHL (Champions Hockey League) website and the stream is good (or has been in the past).

    The exact time is unknown – perhaps around 10am but likely starting sometime between 10am and 2pm.

    https://www.championshockeyleague.com/en/schedule#select_schedule=0
    ************************************************************************************************

    Thanks ….might try to watch.

  79. McSorley33 says:

    Reja,

    Give it fortnight and more injuries ( Malkin) will happen around the league Jesse’s stock will go up.
    ************************************************************************************************************
    So is the Pens #3 C – Nick Bjugstad. Longer term as well I believe…

    If you have to play the Pens…..it is best to play them without their 2C and 3C.

    Winnipeg catches a break ( Jets play Pens tomorrow ) – and their D core needs it.

  80. GMB3 says:

    For those who follow Bakersfield more than I (those who actually watched a fair amount of games last year), would you say it is fair to temper expectations for McLeod and Maksimov if they are on the third line? I imagine they won’t see as much ice as Benson and Marody in their first years as there is more legitimate skill ahead of them on the roster.

    I didn’t expect them to duplicate the numbers those two put up last year based on pedigree, but I imagine they won’t get as material of a role in Bakersfield. What kind of production would we expect to call “up arrows” in terms of development?

    And another question, at what point does having Gagner and Malone on the roster hold back their icetime? I know it was often brought up in past years with regards to AHL vets getting the push over guys like Pitlick and Khaira early in their AHL tenure, maybe a lesser extent Greg Chase.

  81. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: JP to PIT for their 2020 1st? I think I’d do it.

    I can’t see Pitt doing it, but I wouldn’t mind that trade for us. Could be a relatively high pick in a deep draft for forward talent. Jan Mysak, Noel Gunler, and Tim Stutzle are all guys I’ve seen projected from 12-20 who could be impact NHL forwards.

  82. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: JP to PIT for their 2020 1st? I think I’d do it.

    I’d definitely do it, but I suspect one would need competition for Pujo’s services to get a 1st back.

  83. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: Faceoffs winning percentages for reference:

    Draisaitl: 46.88%
    McDavid: 63.16
    Nugent-Hopkins: 58.82
    Haas: 45.45*
    Cave: 62.50

    *I’m pretty sure the faceoff that led to the Nygard goal would have been counted as a loss. In any case, Haas was 0-2 at the dot against Vancouver and 5-4 against LA.

    The Haas lost faceoff reminds me of the Ducks vs Oilers earlier in the decade on the PP. Set play where they lost the draw and had two guys on the puck in the corner immediately regaining possession. It’s a “loss” but controlled loss. Always thought it was a nifty play.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:

    I’d still like to see these TC lines revisited:
    Jurco-McDavid-Neal
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Kassian

    YES (although I’d like to see Nuge as 3C and am comfortable with Nygard in that spot, for now).

    I’d like to see Jurco with McDavid as I think Jurco’s skill set will mesh as he seems like a high offensive IQ player to go along with nice hands and he’s “fast enough”. Don’t need to be a burner to play with McDavid but know how to get him the puck with space, find open areas, time your net front presence, works to move the defenders away from Connor, etc.

    It was just one game but Kass/Drai created big time without McDavid in game 1.

  85. GMB3 says:

    PennersPancakes:
    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    +1 Agree with all of this.

    I’m sorry but obviously the math is looking at the wrong things if Manning, Fayne, Garisson, & Gravel (etc.) are what win you cups. Its tough to take a serious look because honestly whats the point?

    This is a case of smartest man in the room but since those players arent even in the league/are ahl call ups it looks more like smartest guy in the NHL. Im going to be skeptical of the last statement and continue to skim through those posts.

    I don’t think math liked Manning, Garrison, or Gravel (at least as anything more than third pairing). The math liked Fayne, but I think he was probably zoomed by Greene.

    A lot of the people who don’t think math matters are the same people who thought the Reinhart trade was a good idea because of buzzwords like leadership, WHL, mem cup, oil king.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear:
    18/19
    Gravel 36gm 467 ev min,2.18 evga/60, +.44 goals/60
    Garrsion 17gm 178 ev min,1.68 evga/60, +.94 goals/60

    Kevin Gravel is in the AHL (and his contract is with a team with questionable defensive depth).

    Jason Garrison is in the SHL.

    Yes, defending GA is a primary need to a d-man but its not the only need.

    Without looking, I would guess those two played a low percentage of their minutes against top 6.

  87. SoCaloil says:

    Thanks for sharing the chart LT. Love how interactive it is.
    Just for fun, look at STL and ANA. Stark contrast…albeit small sample size.

  88. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lightgestalt: Thank you for providing the link!
    The Website it directs to says 18:00, so 6 p.m. MESZ , so 10 a.m. in Edmonton I think (not entirely sure).

    Without looking, that is probably right but they show all games at the same time I’ve notice and, closer to game day, the actual times will be updated.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I like Russell’s energy. You have a point about Cave being is a center, but I’m not too worried as all of Khaira, Sheahan, Granlund and Haas can take faceoffs, so that’s 4 bottom-6 guys.

    In any case, it seems like Tippett is putting out the top-6 for faceoffs almost exclusively: of the 92 faceoffs Edmonton has had over the 2 games, Draisaitl has taken 32, McDavid 19, Nugent-Hopkins 17, Neal 2 and Nygard 1. That’s nearly 80% of the faceoffs. For the other 21 faceoffs, we’ve seen Haas take 11, Cave 8, Granlund 1 and Khaira 1. Sheahan averaged 11.4 faceoffs per game in Florida last year and won 54.9% of them. We won’t miss Cave.

    One of the key’s of Sheahan coming back is to reduce the responsibility on Drai for all the important faceoffs. High faceoffs don’t seem like a big deal but they add to the wear and tear.

    Sheahan is going to be great for Drai and reducing his minutes and FO workload.

    If Cave was a right shot, faceoffs could save his waive/demotion, however, with Drai and Sheahan as left shot faceoff guys, see ya Colby.

  90. PennersPancakes says:

    GMB3: I don’t think math liked Manning, Garrison, or Gravel (at least as anything more than third pairing). The math liked Fayne, but I think he was probably zoomed by Greene.

    A lot of the people who don’t think math matters are the same people who thought the Reinhart trade was a good idea because of buzzwords like leadership, WHL, mem cup, oil king.

    Not against analytics at all, very pro actually and I hope the Oilers beef up (create?) their analytic department. Numbers themselves cannot lie but without proper context and explanation people can use them to mislead or paint a different picture.

    I was referencing Rickis idea of defenders. If his (selected) numbers suggest those defenders are good that is a solid litmus test suggesting his methodologies/ideas are off. A team of those players would get caved in nightly.

  91. ArmchairGM says:

    Side: These people can never be proven wrong, they are expert goal post movers.

    “…but anyone can score 50 playing next to McDavid…..”

    Which is one of the reasons I’d like to see him play primarily with RNH. I’m hoping TIppett can find something that works for McDavid, I’d like to see him paired with Jurco and Neal as I think that has the strongest chance of succeeding, but what do I know?

  92. ArmchairGM says:

    Ryan: Leon has no luck at all with the empty nets.

    Yeah, it kind of irks me that Ovi won the Richard last year with 4 empty net goals (51 total) while Leon scored all 50 of his against goalies. They shouldn’t count EN goals towards the Richard.

    He should have taken the shot.

  93. Darth Tu says:

    ArmchairGM: Yeah, it kind of irks me that Ovi won the Richard last year with 4 empty net goals (51 total) while Leon scored all 50 of his against goalies. They shouldn’t count EN goals towards the Richard.

    He should have taken the shot.

    Having less chances at scoring on an empty net probably speaks more to the Oilers record than anything.

    Now, this season, If Drai gets 50 empty net goals, that means we’ve won 50 games (at least).

    Pip pip. Roll on the victories!

  94. GMB3 says:

    PennersPancakes: Not against analytics at all, very pro actually and I hope the Oilers beef up (create?) their analytic department. Numbers themselves cannot lie but without proper context and explanation people can use them to mislead or paint a different picture.

    I was referencing Rickis idea of defenders. If his (selected) numbers suggest those defenders are good that is a solid litmus test suggesting his methodologies/ideas are off. A team of those players would get caved in nightly.

    Oh yeah I may have missed what this was in response too. Rickilytics are something else on their own entirely. Anyways. My apologies

  95. RonnieB says:

    I expect that Cave will be the one waived, but I hope that Holland will at least explore the possibility of a trade with center-challenged Pittsburg first.

  96. pts2pndr says:

    GMB3:
    For those who follow Bakersfield more than I (those who actually watched a fair amount of games last year), would you say it is fair to temper expectations for McLeod and Maksimov if they are on the third line? I imagine they won’t see as much ice as Benson and Marody in their first years as there is more legitimate skill ahead of them on the roster.

    I didn’t expect them to duplicate the numbers those two put up last year based on pedigree, but I imagine they won’t get as material of a role in Bakersfield. What kind of production would we expect to call “up arrows” in terms of development?

    And another question, at what point does having Gagner and Malone on the roster hold back their icetime? I know it was often brought up in past years with regards to AHL vets getting the push over guys like Pitlick and Khaira early in their AHL tenure, maybe a lesser extent Greg Chase.

    I don’t think some of the past concerns are still as valid. The mandate for our current head coach is development and winning. In Oklahoma due it being a new franchise there was more emphasis on winning to help out the new owners. Woodcroft has shown that he will play the younger developing players. He will of course, after last years success, be more apt to give ice time to his veterans from last year. Most of those same players are still prospects however. Longer term I can see him being promoted back to the NHL Oilers.

  97. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3: For those who follow Bakersfield more than I (those who actually watched a fair amount of games last year), would you say it is fair to temper expectations for McLeod and Maksimov if they are on the third line? I imagine they won’t see as much ice as Benson and Marody in their first years as there is more legitimate skill ahead of them on the roster.

    I didn’t expect them to duplicate the numbers those two put up last year based on pedigree, but I imagine they won’t get as material of a role in Bakersfield. What kind of production would we expect to call “up arrows” in terms of development?

    Can’t claim to follow Bakersfield closely, but the issue I see is PP time. With Benson / Marody / Yamamoto still on the roster I don’t see how the rookies will get much of it. Woodcroft was able to get the former players some prime PP minutes last year, as they were his main development focus (forward genre). It will be interesting to see how he balances it all this year.

    But, and I’m just spitballing here, I’d be very happy to see Maksimov pot even strength 20 goals in a full season, with McLeod getting 35-40 ES points, with both also showing growth and maturity in their 2-way games as the year progresses.

  98. ArmchairGM says:

    GMB3: And another question, at what point does having Gagner and Malone on the roster hold back their icetime? I know it was often brought up in past years with regards to AHL vets getting the push over guys like Pitlick and Khaira early in their AHL tenure, maybe a lesser extent Greg Chase.

    I’m not worried about it. Both players are needed IMO this year as mentors, and both have contracts that expire at the end of the season. Gagner probably will spend time in Edmonton too, and if the team is out of contention at the TDL there will no doubt be trades and call-ups that will expand the role of the rookies in Bakersfield.

  99. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny: I’d definitely do it, but I suspect one would need competition for Pujo’s services to get a 1st back.

    And JP to continually demonstrate that he’s 100 cents on the dollar, which is why I don’t see him being moved until closer to the December 1st deadline, if at all.

  100. duct tape and foil says:

    OriginalPouzar: If McDavid and Drai are both leading out-scoring lines, the third line (and fourth line) doesn’t need to be outscoring but sawing off. With Nuge on the third line against the soft parade, I have little doubt that line can win most nights.

    Agree but RHN has to “want” the role and that does not appear to be the case from the outside. He’s UFA after next year and it’s pretty clear that counting numbers will be important in the lead-up to that event. Sure RNH could be an elite 3C with tough zone starts who also runs 2PP, and we desperately need someone to do both jobs, but instead he’s at LW half the time at ES and a 3rd wheel on PP1 since Drai and McDavid play on the right half boards. He’s a great player who is not suited to the task at hand.

    If the right deal for a 1LW (Ehlers+??) was available for RNH, I’d think about it hard.

  101. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: YES (although I’d like to see Nuge as 3C and am comfortable with Nygard in that spot, for now).

    I’d like to see Jurco with McDavid as I think Jurco’s skill set will mesh as he seems like a high offensive IQ player to go along with nice hands and he’s “fast enough”. Don’t need to be a burner to play with McDavid but know how to get him the puck with space, find open areas, time your net front presence, works to move the defenders away from Connor, etc.

    It was just one game but Kass/Drai created big time without McDavid in game 1.

    Yup.

    I said in the part you didn’t quote that I’d prefer McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge separate. 🙂

    The posted lines are the more realistic plan 1B (IMO). I won’t complain if we see either alignment.

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: JP to PIT for their 2020 1st? I think I’d do it.

    I can’t imagine any team giving up anything close to a first rounder, even a projected late first rounder.

    Recall the level of prospect that has been bounded about in the last few months.

    8 points in 9 Liiga games (and solid shooting volume – maybe not a great thing from Jesse – muffins from the blueline) won’t increase his value materially – not yet.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Someone’s going to bite soon wether it be as a result of injury with a poor record or just Plainsucking the hind tit. Jesse and Gagnerfor Centre-winter who needs a change of scenery. Speaking change of scenery sure was hoping Neal would have gotten the hat-trick.

    Gagner has negative value without the Oilers retaining and Puljujarvi has B prospect value still.

  104. Doug McLachlan says:

    To my eye, there is no need to waive anyone. You are allowed a 23 man roster and with Larsson on LTIR you have that with the names LT has set out.

    As for who to dress, I have really liked Haas so far and that “European Showtime” play with Nygard was great, not only because if ended up in a goal but because it shows some confidence only two games into his NHL tenure.

    I don’t know if we are ready to go full unicorn but would not be opposed to letting Drai center the second line.

    Nuge-McDavid-Neal
    Jurco-Drai-Kassian
    Nygard-Haas-Chaisson
    Khaira-Sheehan-Archibald

    Speed element on every line. Snarl element on every line.

    Gives Nuge a chance to get going for a game or two. Or a period or two before Drai and McDavid are reunited.

    If we are doing a more minor variation of what we deployed on Saturday, I’d try this:

    Drai-McDavid-Kassian
    Khaira-Nuge-Neal
    Nygard-Haas-Jurco/Chaisson
    Granlund/Jurco-Sheehan-Archibald

    Really not too impressed with Granlund thus far but he hasn’t been 100% either. Cave, well I have seen enough of him. Personally I don’t see anything from him that makes me say he HAS to stay and certainly not if Sheehan is good to go. Haas has outplayed him and is inherently faster.

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can’t imagine any team giving up anything close to a first rounder, even a projected late first rounder.

    Recall the level of prospect that has been bounded about in the last few months.

    8 points in 9 Liiga games (and solid shooting volume – maybe not a great thing from Jesse – muffins from the blueline) won’t increase his value materially – not yet.

    Not yet. But by November 30th maybe.

  106. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: I like Russell’s energy. You have a point about Cave being is a center, but I’m not too worried as all of Khaira, Sheahan, Granlund and Haas can take faceoffs, so that’s 4 bottom-6 guys.

    In any case, it seems like Tippett is putting out the top-6 for faceoffs almost exclusively: of the 92 faceoffs Edmonton has had over the 2 games, Draisaitl has taken 32, McDavid 19, Nugent-Hopkins 17, Neal 2 and Nygard 1. That’s nearly 80% of the faceoffs. For the other 21 faceoffs, we’ve seen Haas take 11, Cave 8, Granlund 1 and Khaira 1. Sheahan averaged 11.4 faceoffs per game in Florida last year and won 54.9% of them. We won’t miss Cave.

    Yeah, I don’t really care which one they keep. I don’t think either is likely a legit full time NHLer.

    I was more guessing who Tippett would be more likely to part with, and ‘natural C, can win a faceoff, can PK’ seems to hold some sway.

  107. Jethro Tull says:

    PennersPancakes: Not against analytics at all, very pro actually and I hope the Oilers beef up (create?) their analytic department. Numbers themselves cannot lie but without proper context and explanation people can use them to mislead or paint a different picture.

    I was referencing Rickis idea of defenders. If his (selected) numbers suggest those defenders are good that is a solid litmus test suggesting his methodologies/ideas are off. A team of those players would get caved in nightly.

    The irony is that one of Ricki’s great stories is about meeting Darryl Sutter. The same Darryl Sutter that was a huge proponent of defending in the opposition’s zone by getting it out of his own as fast as possible.

  108. Bank Shot says:

    duct tape and foil: Agree but RHN has to “want” the role and that does not appear to be the case from the outside. He’s UFA after next year and it’s pretty clear that counting numbers will be important in the lead-up to that event. Sure RNH could be an elite 3C with tough zone starts who also runs 2PP, and we desperately need someone to do both jobs, but instead he’s at LW half the time at ES and a 3rd wheel on PP1 since Drai and McDavid play on the right half boards. He’s a great player who is not suited to the task at hand.

    If the right deal for a 1LW (Ehlers+??) was available for RNH, I’d think about it hard.

    I’d trade RNH for a cost controlled comparably talented winger in a second.

    The guy relies on talented linemates to produce at ES, and his defensive game isn’t as good as its billed IMO.

    I feel like the Oilers will regret giving him the $8 million per season going rate for centers that have hit 60 points.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB51:
    For those who follow Bakersfield more than I (those who actually watched a fair amount of games last year), would you say it is fair to temper expectations for McLeod and Maksimov if they are on the third line? I imagine they won’t see as much ice as Benson and Marody in their first years as there is more legitimate skill ahead of them on the roster.

    I didn’t expect them to duplicate the numbers those two put up last year based on pedigree, but I imagine they won’t get as material of a role in Bakersfield. What kind of production would we expect to call “up arrows” in terms of development?

    And another question, at what point does having Gagner and Malone on the roster hold back their icetime? I know it was often brought up in past years with regards to AHL vets getting the push over guys like Pitlick and Khaira early in their AHL tenure, maybe a lesser extent Greg Chase.

    Valid questions.

    I don’t think their 5 on 5 ice time will be an issue – Woody is focused on developing prospects along with winning and does generally roll the lines at evens.

    I would expect their boxcars to be lower than we saw from Benson and the older Marody as they aren’t getting PP time at this point. They are playing with Gagner at evens and the line was getting offensive chances in the first game.

    They are getting solid PK minutes, as a pair, and that is great.

    I would expect McLeod’s offensive numbers to be far less than Benson’s as he’s simply not at Benson’s level of offensive talent. Maksimov is a goal scorer and 2-way player (including PK) and I would expect lower point totals from him as well but he should score some goals once he earns more PP time.

    Lets not forget, there will be call-ups to the NHL when injuries hit and, if they’ve earned it, they will move up the lineup.

    Veteran leaders and mentors are needed and Malone plays his role great and Gagner is looking to do the same. Also, they are both plus AHL players and team success is important to player development as well.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Yeah, it kind of irks me that Ovi won the Richard last year with 4 empty net goals (51 total) while Leon scored all 50 of his against goalies. They shouldn’t count EN goals towards the Richard.

    He should have taken the shot.

    Ovie spent the 9th most time on the ice for forward vs. the empty net last year – lots of opportunity to score in to the empty net. At the same time, he was trusted in those defensive situations the 2nd most on his team (essentially tied with Tom Wilson) quite a bit less than Backstrom.

    Leon was 73 in the NHL, almost a full 10 minutes less than Ovie but tops among forwards (essentially tied with Nuge).

    Not sure that really has anything to do with anything regarding if the goals “should count”, but there it is.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    RonnieB:
    I expect that Cave will be the one waived, but I hope that Holland will at least explore the possibility of a trade with center-challenged Pittsburg first.

    I think the only reason PIT would trade for Cave, even in their situation, is to get rid of a contract in order to take one on – they are at 48.

    Colby Cave is a 14th forward, at best, even with a league min salary, he doesn’t have any trade value in my opinion.

    Explore it for sure though, no harm.

  112. blainer says:

    ArmchairGM: As would I. And the bottom-6 would look like this:

    Khaira-Sheahan-Archibald
    Nygard-Haas-Chiasson

    Granlund / Russell
    Cave waived

    +1

  113. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Can’t claim to follow Bakersfield closely, but the issue I see is PP time. With Benson / Marody / Yamamoto still on the roster I don’t see how the rookies will get much of it. Woodcroft was able to get the former players some prime PP minutes last year, as they were his main development focus (forward genre). It will be interesting to see how he balances it all this year.

    But, and I’m just spitballing here, I’d be very happy to see Maksimov pot even strength 20 goals in a full season, with McLeod getting 35-40 ES points, with both also showing growth and maturity in their 2-way games as the year progresses.

    Agree with this 100%.

    Don’t think they’ve received much, if any, PP time in the first two games.

    They are getting solid PK minutes though, as a pair, and that is fantastic.

    I agree with your assessment of a successful season by each of them.

    I don’t want to put a cap on McLeod’s ceiling but, given his junior offence, top 6 seems unlikely and his path to the NHL is likely a 3C – with his speed and size, combined with decent skill and IQ, if he can learn to “go to the hard areas” and put in 100%, he could be a very good one.

    For Maksi, although I have dreams of him gelling with one of our elite C’s with his elite shot (including release) and scoring 30-40, its more likely that he’s a middle 6 or 2-way type guy.

    Their 2-way/PK development, which seems to be a focus of the staff, is key.

  114. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Yeah, I don’t really care which one they keep. I don’t think either is likely a legit full time NHLer.

    I was more guessing who Tippett would be more likely to part with, and ‘natural C, can win a faceoff, can PK’ seems to hold some sway.

    Yeah, we’re discussing the 14th forward, I don’t think it matters much either.

  115. ArmchairGM says:

    Bank Shot: I’dtrade RNH for a cost controlled comparably talented winger in a second.

    The guy relies on talented linemates to produce at ES, and his defensive game isn’t as good as its billed IMO.

    I feel like the Oilers will regret givinghim the $8 million per season going rate for centers that have hit 60 points.

    Which wingers qualify though? I need some names!

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    ducttapeandfoil: Agree but RHN has to “want” the role and that does not appear to be the case from the outside. He’s UFA after next year and it’s pretty clear that counting numbers will be important in the lead-up to that event. Sure RNH could be an elite 3C with tough zone starts who also runs 2PP, and we desperately need someone to do both jobs, but instead he’s at LW half the time at ES and a 3rd wheel on PP1 since Drai and McDavid play on the right half boards. He’s a great player who is not suited to the task at hand.

    If the right deal for a 1LW (Ehlers+??) was available for RNH, I’d think about it hard.

    Firstly, in my opinion, Nuge doesn’t need to want to play there, Nuge needs to do what the coach asks (tells) him to do for his $6M per. Yes, I get it, it would/should/could be beneficial for the org to keep Nuge happy vis-a-vis his willingness to re-sign, however, the coach needs to deploy his 23 man roster in the way that he believes gives the team the best chance to win each and every game night and Nuge’s future contract status should have no bearing. If the coach feels Nuge at 3C with two middling offensive wingers provides that chance, he needs to deploy accordingly.

    Further, Nuge’s boxcars in 2020/21 will have a much greater impact on his next contract that those this season.

    Not to mention, given his new AAV will be no less than $6M and likely/potentially a few million higher, perhaps the organization will not want to re-sign him for that money. Part of that depends on the development of a guy like Ryan McLeod. No he will not be anywhere near as valuable as Nuge in two years but he could be a serviceable (or even plus) 3C on an ELC and McLeod plus $6M to $8M in cap space – whatever Nuge would sign for less McLeod’s ELC hit), may be more beneficial than Nuge himself.

    Yes, all trade options should be explored, however, with two full years left, I only pull the trigger on a Nuge deal if its a clear and explicit/express win.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    DougMcLachlan:
    To my eye, there is no need to waive anyone.You are allowed a 23 man roster and with Larsson on LTIR you have that with the names LT has set out.

    Oilers have a 23 man roster without Sheahan.

  118. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Not yet. But by November 30th maybe.

    Sure, potentially, but 1st round pick?

  119. Scungilli Slushy says:

    ArmchairGM:
    If anyone is interested in scoping out the competition for tomorrow, take a look at the replay below. The Islanders walked all over the Jets in the 2nd period and Barzal was fire the whole game. This won’t be an easy out for the Oilers.

    https://www.nhl.com/video/wpg–nyi/t-277350912/c-69416903

    They have a pretty bland roster IMO, with a couple of good players.

    They live and die by Trotz and goalies.

    Goes to show how a disciplined happy team is always a formidable opponent. Small sample size but nobody is lighting it up points wise but only Leddy is minus. Lousy stat yes but my point is everyone is outscoring.

    The Oilers can certainly also do this. Check out their D Corp. Yikes.

  120. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Reja: Khaira needs to assert himself and be more physical in the corners as well as driving to the net. If he does crank it up a notch it’ll open much needed room for hismates

    Good points, all players need to attack aggressively while staying smart. The less ability to put up points the more balls out players need to be to have a decent career.

    To me with young teams (especially skilled) you let them run and get the O humming and then start reigning them in.

    I’m not sure it works well the other way.

  121. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure, potentially, but 1st round pick?

    Yes. That would be ideal. 2020 25th overall for 2016 consensus 3rd overall.

  122. Yeti says:

    Scungilli Slushy: They have a pretty bland roster IMO, with a couple of good players.

    But doesn’t that also describe us??

  123. jp says:

    Bank Shot: I’dtrade RNH for a cost controlled comparably talented winger in a second.

    The guy relies on talented linemates to produce at ES, and his defensive game isn’t as good as its billed IMO.

    I feel like the Oilers will regret givinghim the $8 million per season going rate for centers that have hit 60 points.

    I really like Nuge but I have to agree.

    ArmchairGM: Which wingers qualify though? I need some names!

    This is the key question though.

    I’m having a tough time with the answer. It’s a lot like the Nurse trade talk, it really depends what the cost to re-sign is. I certainly would be happier to retain both players at a reasonable price (but what is reasonable?!?!).

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Yes. That would be ideal. 2020 25th overall for 2016 consensus 3rd overall.

    Don’t see anything he realistically does in Liiga bumping his value up to a 1st rounder.

    Him being the consensus 3rd overall is all but a non-factor – its not leading to any value now.

    He can definitely increase his value but I can’t imagine that much, in particular in 2 months.

  125. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    “Him being the consensus 3rd overall is all but a non-factor ”

    +1.

    Any GM could collect “former” high draft picks. After a few years; GM’s are looking at the player’s results. Probably always intrigued by draft slot but nothing more.

  126. jtblack says:

    TOP 10 Picks in the last 10 years that can be had.

    Scott Glennie
    Jared Cowen
    Magnus Paajarvi
    Erik Gudbrandson
    Dylan Mcilrath
    Nail Yakupov
    Griffin Reinhart
    Derrick Pouliot
    Michael Dal Colle

    and on & on…..

    That doesnt count all the players picked 10-31.

    I am surprised how many dont make it. Tough League

  127. jtblack says:

    I dont think Jesse will ever be a BIG NHL point producer. LT has questioned the offense from the early days.

    But I do think JP can be an effective NHL player for many years.

    I like how Ken has handled the situation so far

  128. Reja says:

    Geez every interview with Lucic is about protecting Tkapuke. Gag me with a spoon.

  129. jtblack says:

    Reja:
    Geez every interview with Lucic is aboutprotecting Tkapuke. Gag me with a spoon.

    Whats the OVER / UNDER on Lucic Goals this season?

    Line is 6

  130. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Yeti: But doesn’t that also describe us??

    Yes but we’re our bums!

  131. jp says:

    jtblack:
    OriginalPouzar,

    “Him being the consensus 3rd overall is all but a non-factor ”

    +1.

    Any GM could collect “former” high draft picks.After a few years; GM’s are looking at the player’s results. Probably always intrigued by draft slot but nothing more.

    jtblack:
    TOP 10 Picks in the last 10 years that can be had.

    Scott Glennie
    Jared Cowen
    Magnus Paajarvi
    Erik Gudbrandson
    Dylan Mcilrath
    Nail Yakupov
    Griffin Reinhart
    Derrick Pouliot
    Michael Dal Colle

    and on & on…..

    That doesnt count all the players picked 10-31.

    I am surprised how many dont make it. Tough League

    I agree that Puljujarvi might not garner a 1st in return, but your comparison isn’t really at all fair.

    Jesse was a top 5 pick 3 years ago. That completely different from someone who hasn’t produced that was drafted 5 or 7 or 10 years ago.

    Alex Nylander was just traded for a late 1st rounder who’s a year younger and has played more NHL games than he has.

    Nylander was drafted after Puljujarvi in 2016 and has been shy of his production/development every year, by any measure you can find.

    Puljujarvi has played 139 NHL games before his 21st birthday, the man is still trending to be a valuable NHL player, even if not a top 5 pick.

    (all this to say, I don’t think a late first in return would be crazy)

  132. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: As would I. And the bottom-6 would look like this:

    Khaira-Sheahan-Archibald
    Nygard-Haas-Chiasson

    Granlund / Russell
    Cave waived

    You are taking an ultra conservative approach. Given what we have observed and what would be most advantageous for the team why would you not try the following:
    Nygard McDavid Kassian
    Jurco Draisaitl Neal
    Khaira. Nuge. Haas
    chiasson Sheahan Archibald

    While I agree it is not without risk, if it works the result :
    a) gets you in the playoffs
    b) gives you a great base to build on

    This gives you room for a trade deadline promotion of Yamamoto. This allows for Nuge to move up in the event of injury plus he is available for second power-play and or penalty kill as required. It also gives you the advantage of a righty lefty face-off player for pk duty. As I see it small downside for a very large upside.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    From accounts, in the 2nd game of the year, Lucic played like the Lucic we all remember so “fondly” from last year.

    He was serviceable in the 1st game and the flames fans were generally on adrenaline from the protection and fight. Of course, they don’t take in to account the fact that Lucic’s:

    – first game in Boston – fight
    – first game in LA – match penalty
    – first game in EDM – fight

    – of course, the play in game one negated a PP in a close game.

    Did Lucic’s presence on the ice, right by the play, negate the flame player from getting hit in a dangerous way? Nope.

  134. pts2pndr says:

    jp: I really like Nuge but I have to agree.

    This is the key question W
    I’m having a tough time with the answer. It’s a lot like the Nurse trade talk, it really depends what the cost to re-sign is. I certainly would be happier to retain both players at a reasonable price (but what is reasonable?!?!).

    While I don’t necessarily disagree, the bottom line is you know what you have in Nuge or Nurse. Do you really know what you are getting when you make the trade? To improve the team you have to at a minimum get equal value in return. As I see it the risk reward scenario makes it a very difficult choice at best. It becomes the ultimate hero or goat scenario. While faint heart does not win fair maiden, a fool walks alone. Not a hill to die on!🤔

  135. pts2pndr says:

    Reja:
    Geez every interview with Lucic is aboutprotecting Tkapuke. Gag me with a spoon.

    So Lucic is to Tkachuk is as TP is to a-hole ! ( sorry about the spelling)
    Showing myself out.

  136. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    From accounts, in the 2nd game of the year, Lucic played like the Lucic we all remember so “fondly” from last year.

    He was serviceable in the 1st game and the flames fans were generally on adrenaline from the protection and fight.Of course, they don’t take in to account the fact that Lucic’s:

    – first game in Boston – fight
    – first game in LA – match penalty
    – first game in EDM – fight

    – of course, the play in game one negated a PP in a close game.

    Did Lucic’s presence on the ice, right by the play, negate the flame player from getting hit in a dangerous way? Nope.

    I think Neal scoring 2 goals and generally looking rejuvinated also shone some extra light on what Lucic really is.

    Looch looked pretty attractive as replacement for a 7 goal scorer. If it was actually a 25 goal scorer, not so much…

  137. drglen says:

    I like nuge at 6 mil,, I would not go higher. well possibly a bit higher.. let’s see if he scores timely goals, short handed goals, ..

    I would trade him if the right deal came along though..

    What did Nuge with Kassian and Drei look like?

  138. jp says:

    pts2pndr: While I don’t necessarily disagree, the bottom line is you know what you have in Nuge or Nurse. Do you really know what you are gettingwhen you make the trade? To improve the team you have to at a minimum get equal value in return. As I see it the risk reward scenario makes it a very difficult choice at best. It becomes the ultimate hero or goat scenario. While faint heart does not win fair maiden, a fool walks alone. Not a hill to die on!

    Fair point. These are difficult trades to make and there’s risk you’re going to look bad.

    In terms of knowing what you have, I agree on Nuge. It’s much less clear what Nurse is IMO and there’s still room for (read: reasonable expectation of) growth from him.

    For me, if I’m re-signing one of them for 6 x $7M it’s Nurse. That’s on the high end for talk of Nurse’s next contract and the low end for expectations of Nuge’s next deal (acknowledging the Nurse contract would include 2 RFA years while Nuge’s would be all UFA years).

    And if $7-8M is what it takes to re-sign Nuge past Summer 2021, well maybe Nuge for Ehlers is a win (knowing that Ehlers outscored Nuge in 2 of the past 3 seasons, is 3 years younger and is signed for $6M for 4 years beyond when Nuge becomes UFA).

    All of this makes me a little queasy, but the thought of Nurse for Ehlers is even less appealing IMO.

  139. Wilde says:

    GMB3:
    For those who follow Bakersfield more than I (those who actually watched a fair amount of games last year), would you say it is fair to temper expectations for McLeod and Maksimov if they are on the third line? I imagine they won’t see as much ice as Benson and Marody in their first years as there is more legitimate skill ahead of them on the roster.

    I didn’t expect them to duplicate the numbers those two put up last year based on pedigree, but I imagine they won’t get as material of a role in Bakersfield. What kind of production would we expect to call “up arrows” in terms of development?

    And another question, at what point does having Gagner and Malone on the roster hold back their icetime? I know it was often brought up in past years with regards to AHL vets getting the push over guys like Pitlick and Khaira early in their AHL tenure, maybe a lesser extent Greg Chase.

    My marker for McLeod isn’t going to be point production (that’s not going to be his main value generator should he make the NHL) but rather when the top-9 deployment goes from this:

    Benson – Marody – Currie
    Gambardella – Malone – Yamamoto
    Maksimov – McLeod – Gagner

    to this:

    Benson – Marody – Currie
    Gambardella – McLeod – Yamamoto
    Maksimov – Malone – Gagner

    As for Maksimov, this third line situation is definitely better for a winger than when Yamamoto was played outside of the top-six last year when the third line was Vesel and Polei, but he’s being eased in. Both of these scenarios are miles away from Benson/Marody’s rookie years and should be looked at as such – I’m looking less for overall point totals for both players and more for how quickly McLeod earns the coach’s trust at 5v5 and 4v5 and Maksimov’s goal-scoring rate and whether or not he’s getting PP1 time.

    So, to answer your question in a roundabout way, I don’t think raw point production will be the most important arrow in the first place, firstly because of role and secondly because of player-identity.

    I wouldn’t be hasty to set any thresholds besides the floor-level red flag ones.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Should be interesting to see the roster adjustment today in order to open up the spot for Sheahan – I think it’ll be Cave but it could be Russell. If one of Archibald or Chiasson isn’t good to go, they will probably IR him retro to last Thursday to make room.

    I think Mikko should get the start but could see Tip going back to Smith.

  141. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Should be interesting to see the roster adjustment today in order to open up the spot for Sheahan – I think it’ll be Cave but it could be Russell. If one of Archibald or Chiasson isn’t good to go, they will probably IR him retro to last Thursday to make room.

    I think Mikko should get the start but could see Tip going back to Smith.

    Is IR 7 days minimum or 10? Either way they should have some visibility on both guys by now.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think 7 days (used to be 7) so should be able to do it retro to last Thurs (the day after the last game they played.

    I think, not 100% and, if so, not 100% that means they can be activated on next Thursday or not till Friday.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think 7 days (used to be 7) so should be able to do it retro to last Thurs (the day after the last game they played.

    I think, not 100% and, if so, not 100% that means they can be activated on next Thursday or not till Friday.

    All right – huge morning. Wife teaching Power Hot Yoga in 20 min so I’m doing that hour class then heading for heavy legs for a good 90 minutes. Guess I’m rolling in to the office at 940 this morning and then leaving early for the 5pm game.

  144. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Don’t see anything he realistically does in Liiga bumping his value up to a 1st rounder.

    Him being the consensus 3rd overall is all but a non-factor – its not leading to any value now.

    He can definitely increase his value but I can’t imagine that much, in particular in 2 months.

    jtblack:
    OriginalPouzar,

    “Him being the consensus 3rd overall is all but a non-factor ”

    +1.

    Any GM could collect “former” high draft picks.After a few years; GM’s are looking at the player’s results. Probably always intrigued by draft slot but nothing more.

    jtblack:
    TOP 10 Picks in the last 10 years that can be had.

    Scott Glennie
    Jared Cowen
    Magnus Paajarvi
    Erik Gudbrandson
    Dylan Mcilrath
    Nail Yakupov
    Griffin Reinhart
    Derrick Pouliot
    Michael Dal Colle

    and on & on…..

    That doesnt count all the players picked 10-31.

    I am surprised how many dont make it. Tough League

    I just threw that “consensus 3rd overall” comment in there to provide some low-hanging fruit. I can’t have OP agree with me on EVERYthing, that simply wouldn’t do! 😉

    I agree that his draft position has little to do with his value today, but the fact is he has the raw skills to be one of the top-5 players in his draft year and if other GM’s see him putting it all together in Liiga there will be significant interest. I don’t think a late 1st rounder is out of the question.

  145. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: All right – huge morning. Wife teaching Power Hot Yoga in 20 min so I’m doing that hour class then heading for heavy legs for a good 90 minutes. Guess I’m rolling in to the office at 940 this morning and then leaving early for the 5pm game.

    60 minutes of hot yoga followed by 90 minutes of leg presses – you must be a beast!

  146. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: You are taking an ultra conservative approach. Given what we have observed and what would be most advantageous for the team why would you not try the following:
    Nygard McDavidKassianJurco Draisaitl Neal
    Khaira. Nuge. Haas
    chiasson SheahanArchibald

    While I agree it is not without risk, if it works the result :
    a) gets you in the playoffs
    b) gives you a great base to build on

    This gives you room for a trade deadline promotion of Yamamoto. This allows for Nuge to move up in the event of injury plus he is available for second power-play and or penalty kill as required. It also gives you the advantage of a righty lefty face-off player for pkduty. As I see it small downside for a very large upside.

    I don’t think my lines are “ultra conservative” at all. Right now we have 1 outscoring line, my lines would give the team (potentially) 2 outscoring lines and 2 lines that can hold their own while causing some mayhem.

    I honestly think that running unicorns is the surest way to fail – we simply don’t have the depth of skill on the wings to outscore the opposition. As good as he is, McDavid simply cannot outscore on his own, I’m only HOPING that having Jurco and Neal will be enough for him to do so. They may not be… I supposed Tippett could always run Draisaitl-Nuge-Kassian as the 1st line and get the McDavid line slightly easier competition.

  147. OriginalPouzar says:

    Doing the yoga to support the wife as she is still brand new to teaching – just got certified at the end of summer.

    It’s going to be a tough morning for sure.

  148. silasbengtsson says:

    Bank Shot: I’dtrade RNH for a cost controlled comparably talented winger in a second.

    The guy relies on talented linemates to produce at ES, and his defensive game isn’t as good as its billed IMO.

    I feel like the Oilers will regret givinghim the $8 million per season going rate for centers that have hit 60 points.

    I’ve suggested it before elsewhere, but I think a deal centered around Nuge for Ehlers makes some sense for both parties. The Oilers get a play-driving winger that would be a near-perfect fit alongside Draisaitl and the Jets get a legitimate 2C to staple Laine to. Nuge plays the more valuable position and is fresh off his strongest season while Ehlers is younger and has a contract that runs an extra 4 years. I’d even be willing to throw a conditional pick based on Nuge re-signing in there to seal the deal.

  149. Pouzar says:

    silasbengtsson: I’ve suggested it before elsewhere, but I think a deal centered around Nuge for Ehlers makes some sense for both parties. The Oilers get a play-driving winger that would be a near-perfect fit alongside Draisaitl and the Jets get a legitimate 2C to staple Laine to. Nuge plays the more valuable position and is fresh off his strongest season while Ehlers is younger and has a contract that runs an extra 4 years. I’d even be willing to throw a conditional pick based on Nuge re-signing in there to seal the deal.

    That is an interesting trade proposal. Contract durations would throw a wrench in there but interesting nonetheless.

    Ehlers is a piss cutter. I say Chevy (and Jets fans I know at least) say no.

  150. Ryan says:

    Pouzar: That is an interesting trade proposal. Contract durations would throw a wrench in there but interesting nonetheless.

    Ehlers is a piss cutter. I say Chevy (and Jets fans I know at least) say no.

    The Jets might have made that trade a year ago when they had cup run aspirations, NHL dmen, and were spending 1st rounders on Willie Mays Hayes… and Nuge had three years left in his contract.

    Now, I don’t think there’s a chance they would.

    Speaking of trading Nuge, his trade value continues to drop as contract runs out.

  151. Pouzar says:

    Ryan: The Jets might have made that trade a year ago when they had cup run aspirations, NHL dmen, and were spending 1st rounders on Willie Mays Hayes… and Nuge had three years left in his contract.

    Now, I don’t think there’s a chance they would.

    Speaking of trading Nuge, his trade value continues to drop as contract runs out.

    Agreed.

  152. jp says:

    Ryan: The Jets might have made that trade a year ago when they had cup run aspirations, NHL dmen, and were spending 1st rounders on Willie Mays Hayes… and Nuge had three years left in his contract.

    Now, I don’t think there’s a chance they would.

    Speaking of trading Nuge, his trade value continues to drop as contract runs out.

    Agreed also.

    One thing we should keep in mind though is that Holland has a history of re-signing his UFSs (for better or worse, it often involves an overpay). I feel like as Oilers fans we’ve grown accustomed to these guys walking at the end of their deals and needing to get SOMETHING back for the asset at basically the last possible minute. I think we should expect more of these guys (like RNH and Larsson, pending him recovering his game) to stick around rather than assuming they’re gone once their deals are up. That’s my hunch anyway. It’d be a nice change.

  153. Reja says:

    silasbengtsson: I’ve suggested it before elsewhere, but I think a deal centered around Nuge for Ehlers makes some sense for both parties. The Oilers get a play-driving winger that would be a near-perfect fit alongside Draisaitl and the Jets get a legitimate 2C to staple Laine to. Nuge plays the more valuable position and is fresh off his strongest season while Ehlers is younger and has a contract that runs an extra 4 years. I’d even be willing to throw a conditional pick based on Nuge re-signing in there to seal the deal.

    The Jets are loaded up front but a lot has changed in a short time on D can’t win every game 7-5. If Ehlers is traded it has to be for a damn decent D-man.

  154. Pouzar says:

    Reja: The Jets are loaded up front but a lot has changed in a short time on D can’t win every game 7-5. If Ehlers is traded it has to be for a damn decent D-man.

    Kulikov just granted a Personal Leave of Absence by the Jets.

  155. Ryan says:

    Pouzar: Kulikov just granted a Personal Leave of Absence by the Jets.

    Wow. Isn’t Morrissey injures too?

  156. Pouzar says:

    Ryan: Wow. Isn’t Morrissey injures too?

    Day to day.

  157. Dee Dee says:

    Oilers are FIRST IN THE WEST!!!

    And 7 games up on the Sharks.

    We live in Bizzaro World.

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