Send In The Clowns

Oh, those Oilers. They might be on the verge of making a lot of people look foolish. One thing I love about the math people who spend time helping me with the hockey analytics: They’re all smart enough to admit when things aren’t clear. I think we’re in that spot now, with the Edmonton Oilers. The PK looks solved, the PP is strong, Joel Persson and Ethan Bear look like real solutions, the experience on the depth lines is a major help, Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen have been an effective tandem, James Neal is basically Ken Hodge 1969.

There isn’t enough track to make claims, ladies and men. We know intuitively that some of the current bets won’t work out, even though most look good to very good now. We don’t know what we don’t know. Those 10 points in the bank are going to make the Thanksgiving turkey taste even better.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Mike Smith is charged up, and that’s a big reason behind the Oilers’ surprising 5-0 start
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 positives in the Oilers’ 4 wins that may not be sustainable
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ Oscar Klefbom playing tough minutes with inexperienced partners — and looking good doing it
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He’s addicted to getting better’: What the Oilers are saying about Connor McDavid’s amazing start
  • Eric Duhatschek: The lasting impact of The Gretzky Effect, 40 years after his NHL debut
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers who could win (or lose) NHL jobs early in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Several unproven players are earning NHL jobs and increasing roster quality and depth. No balance photo, but some traction early.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why Riley Sheahan could be a key ingredient the Oilers have been missing
  • Jonathan Willis: Bet on James Neal rebounding with Oilers, just not all the way
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Joel Persson went from being a part-time teacher three years ago to patrolling the Oilers blue line (this is exceptional).
  • Lowetide: Keeping an eye on Jesse Puljujarvi: Which teams could emerge as potential trade partners?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
  • Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 2015: 1-4-0, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in October 2016: 4-1-0, goal differential +4
  • Oilers in October 2017: 1-4-0, goal differential -8
  • Oilers in October 2018: 3-2-0, goal differential -3
  • Oilers in October 2019: 5-0-0, goal differential +8

There isn’t much to say here. Edmonton hasn’t been 5-0 to start a season since before most of you were born. I think Dave Tippett is making a difference, and suggested he would before the season. I also suggested 88 points as the season point total. These Oilers could go 35-34-8 from here, and finish with 88 points on the season.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

  • At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (3-0-0)
  • At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
  • At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 5-0-0, 10 points after 5 games

I promise you that real thought went into my October projection. At this point, I’m tempted to call Stephen Sondheim and have him ring up a few rhymes for farce. I’ll suggest one fleeting thought: Maybe, like Al Arbour on the Island, this is one of those happy moments where chemistry creates greatness. This did not look like a 110-point team leaving the station, and no one could have predicted Neal, Bear, Persson filling roles with such aplomb. Is Tippett the next great Oilers coach? Is Holland about to be correct on all bets? Send in the clowns? All numbers below NST, and five-on-five unless noted.

LINE 1 Leon Draisiatl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 16:33 together, going 15-6 Corsi, 5-3 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-1 HDSC.

This line has played 65 minutes together now this season: 57 percent Corsi, 49 percent shots, 70 percent goal share, 61.9 percent expected goals, 69 percent high danger scoring chances. The scoring number for each man is below, what a start for Edmonton’s best forwards.

LINE 2 Tomas Jurco-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-James Neal played 9:45, going 11-5 Corsi, 5-4 shots, 1-0 goals, 2-1 HDSC.

This trio has played 31:24 together, Nuge finally getting some consistency. The numbers: 55 percent Corsi, 47 percent shots, 75 percent goal share, 55 percent expected goals and 50 percent high danger scoring chances. This could be a quality line, we need to see them for 20 games and Jurco needs to score goals.

LINE 3 Joakim Nygard-Markus Granlund-Alex Chiasson played 8:04, 6-2 Corsi, 3-1 shots, no goals, 1-1 HDSC.

A brand new line, I think we’ll be seeing more of this group. Chiasson had the HD chance, Nygard was very involved and agitated the Rangers often. Granlund played his best game of the season, he was around the puck far more while playing center.

LINE 4 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 7:57, going 14-3 Corsi, 4-3 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-1 HDSC.

The line had a strong showing to my eye, they can certainly cycle well. Archibald got in hot water on this blog for the wide shot, and he needs to hit the damned net or pass to 97. That said, a few other things went wrong before the puck landed in the net, and he did have a dandy chance himself. Lots of quite negative comments about him in the game-day thread yesterday, he’s two games in, boys. I’m not questioning your ability to evaluate hockey, but maybe give him 30 games. Jujhar Khaira had some looks but missed the net often. He needs to deliver some offense. Riley Sheahan spent much of the evening as the only center who could win a faceoff and was effective in getting the puck heading in a good direction.

OILERS 2019-20

PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse-Ethan Bear played 15:37, going 12-6 Corsi, 7-3 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-1 HDSC. Nurse-McDavid were on the ice for 12:49 together, 12:31 for Bear-McDavid. It came with an assignment though, this duo spent 12:35 against the deadly Zibanejad line.

Nurse and Bear have played 67:34 together and things are looking good. Currently at 50.6 percent Fenwick and 48.6 Corsi, 51.4 percent expected goals. I’m honestly not sure what happens when Larsson gets back, suspect this pairing stays together for a time.

PAIRING TWO Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 14:13 together, 7-5 Corsi, 2-3 shots, no goals and 1-2 HDSC. Spent 1:57 with McDavid, 1:17 against Zibanejad.

Russell and Benning have played 59:57 together as a duo, going 48.9 Corsi, 47.2 Fenwick and 45.6 in expected goals. I expect most Oilers fans believe this is an effective third pair, to my mind the most stable since the MacT years. Benning is playing so well right now that when he does make a mistake (a dreadful alley-oop out of the zone that went nowhere good) it’s a wow moment. Russell is more effective on his left side.

PAIRING THREE Oscar Klefbom and Joel Persson played 13:25 together, 26-7 Corsi, 10-5 shots, 1-1 goals, 4-1 HDSC. Spent most of the time with the Nuge line and against the Strome line.

This duo has played 54:15 together this season, 56.2 Corsi, 57.7 Fenwick, 60.5 expected goals. These are spectacular numbers, and is reflected in Klefbom’s ranking (No. 3) in points among defensemen in the NHL. Not a chance in hell this pairing breaks up any time soon.

GOALIE Mike Smith held serve, stopping 20 of 21, .952. His passing isn’t noticeable (that’s a good thing) but his brilliant saves (five of six stopped) on the high dangers made a big difference. Oilers shots against (28.8) per game is the fifth lowest in the league, goals against (2.60) is the eighth best. It’s a team game, the goalies are playing well, the .910 save percentage ranks No. 13 in the NHL currently.

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274 Responses to "Send In The Clowns"

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  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    teddyturnbuckle:
    On the Taylor Hall idea. Taylor is a great player and it was a bad trade for the Oilers.Especially now that we have a couple more right handed D on the team now. That being said Taylor will be 29 next season and his next contract will be around 11mill x 7 years. Taylor is also injured quite often and this may be a problem as he enters his thirties. Because we have Mc David and Leon already I don’t think we have enough responsible cap space to pursue him if he is available next summer.

    If the Oilers are somehow real contenders come this trade deadline – I don’t mean in or out off a playoff spot by 2-3 points but solidly in and potentially with home ice the, yes, maybe, depending on acquisition cost, I’d be willing to rent Taylor Hall is a winger is what is needed.

    With that said, I do so with full knowledge of zero desire to re-sign Hall. As you stated above, he is going to require a very large contract with term and it will be for his entire 30s, full decline years.

    No way am I on board with signing Taylor Hall to his retirement contract.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal: Yup. You can’t “not report” if you don’t have a contract.

    khildahl: A player who isn’t under contract can’t report to camp.

    Yes, you can report to camp – can’t play in a real NHL regular season game but you can attend camp.

    There are many players in camp without NHL contracts – those with AHL contracts, those with no contracts and are there on PTOs, etc.

  3. OriginalPouzar says:

    DrTaboggan:
    Dr. Taboggan,

    Preferably Lagesson or Jones. I forgot Sammy is waiver exempt next season so there is no rush.

    Unless he becomes a full time NHLer right away (highly unlikely), Sammy is going to be waiver exempt for 3 years I think.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Congrats to Ryan McLeod for his first professional goal today – I think I ready that it was a great shot.

    Another goal and an apple for Yamamoto – 3 goals in 3 games – I assume he was a dominant driver like the first two games but will have to try and watch the replay.

    I read something that Starrett tweaked something on the winning goal and had to be helped off – haven’t dived in to it though.

  5. Reja says:

    First shot Talbot.

  6. duct tape and foil says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I doubt it, but it might get you a 3C on a team in need of D.

    WPG is running:

    Scheifiele
    Copp
    Roslovic
    Lowry

    Down the middle.

    Little is 2 or 3 C when he gets back.

    They need RHD……

    Might be wrong but I think Pageau in OTT might be had relatively cheaply. Perhaps one of our extra young dmen and maybe Gagner for cap reasons. Pageau is UFA at the end of the year, so the price should not be too high, and we could test drive him the balance of this year.

    But sure WPG makes some sense given their need for defensemen. I’d rather get a LW than center though. Surprised how few real quality LW are around. The perfect fit for the Oilers is a RH LW of which there are almost none of note beside that Russian guy in Washington 🙂

  7. leadfarmer says:

    Reja:
    First shot Talbot.

    Seriously
    What is wrong with that guy

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear:
    As a leading developer of hockey Theories and advancing analytics to complex resolutions.

    Are there some peer evaluations, public accolades, evidence of such theories being accepted in the community, etc.?

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Stauffer says Yamamoto was the best player on the ice – for the third time in three games.

    His goal was music to the eyes:

    https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1183492103734616064

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: I like Broberg quite a bit.But we really would have knocked it out of the park with Zegras/Caufield and Lavoie

    I don’t think there is any indication that that would have been a homerun any more than Broberg/Lavoie will be.

    Of course, it will take 5 plus years to have an idea but, as of right now, I don’t think there is any objective way to lean one way over the other.

  11. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is good information, thank you, however I don’t really understand what more vs. little on the fly starts as opposed to faceoff zone starts means?

    High level lesson?

    On the fly shifts are usually when the puck is already headed to the offensive zone. It also gives the coaches a greater level of control with whom the player is on the ice against.

    Think of it this way. If you’re coaching the Oilers and they have a d zone draw, which d pairing do you want on the ice when the opposing coach sends Panarin and Zibanejad over the boards? It’s probably not Russell Benning.

    However, you have to find minutes for your third pair. So when the puck is safely headed down the ice, you trade Nurse Bear for Benning and Russell.

    Dellow was a pioneer in identifying the effects of ‘on the fly shifts.’

    For example, it explains why players like Benning have surprisingly good metrics vs elite comp.

    3rd pairing d men often have great Woodmoney’s vs elite comp because they mostly only play elite comp with on the fly shifts when the puck is already headed to the good end of the ice.

  12. Yeti says:

    rickithebear:
    As a leading developer of hockey Theories and advancing analytics to complex resolutions.

    I will state something at the lowest resolution.

    Brutal scientific method.
    This failure permeates thru current academia.

    Best example is almost 100% of climate models quoted by the alarmists.
    Like many I bought into the concern for years.
    But then realized how the models are set up.

    We know that most of surface temp change is from heat transfer from upper atmospheres.
    95% is H20 vapour transfer excluded from the model.
    The other 5% is direct solar radiation, 99.7% excluded, 100.3% is excluded ( they add a neg) at highest solar flare period
    Transfer thru gas, not all gas are included
    Transfer thru particulate, not all particulate are included.

    Upper atmosphere temp is dependent on the solar rays cycles. Largely excluded in models.

    So you build a model that excludes almost all the natural affect on temp at surface.
    And The model outcomes aretemp is affected by man.

    Embarrassing science!

    Cherry picking parts of a complex system partnered with
    Excluding The high affect actors
    Is the worst analytics.

    Hey Ricki,

    I’ve been on here since the early days, always welcomed your posts. But why not keep them to hockey? The whole “I’m smarter than every other person on the planet” schtick is amusing in that context.

    But leave the climate thing alone. The people working on climate modelling are not some stupid one-dimensional fuckwits like you want to pretend so that you can act out your whole “I’m a mistreated genius” game. They are exceedingly smart, have a far better grasp of the complexity of modelling climate than you will ever do, and aren’t reduced to posting their ideas on a fucking hockey blog.

    I get that you are determined to turn every thread into a referendum on your own personal greatness. But stick to the damned hockey.

    Gracias,
    Yeti

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB3: Caulfield with 5 points through his first 2 NCAA games. A lot of people are going to wonder how a kid who scored 72 goals in his draft year slid to 15th overall.

    Broberg with 2 points through 17 total games (12 SHL, 5 CHL). 10 shots on goal in SHL play, averaging 14:45 toi

    Both of those are essentially equally impressive – that TOI as an 18 year old in the SHL is a substantial arrow all on its own.

    I don’t think that’s much different than what one saw from OEL and Karlsson at that age.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    SJ scored 3 minutes in to the game and I think it was the first shot of the game (and season) on Talbot……

    2-0 SJ near the end of one.

  15. duct tape and foil says:

    Am I correct that the 15 or so useless NHL games that Bear played 2 years ago is going to mean we need to protect him in the Seattle expansion draft? If yes, damn you again Chiarelli.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB: I’m a little concerned with Brobergs shot on goal totals in the SHL, and his paltry point production through 17 games

    Averaging almost 15 minutes of TOI as an 18 year old d-man in the SHL is MASSIVE.

    Erik Karlsson had 10 points in his draft plus 1 season in the SHL.

  17. Yeti says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t think that’s much different than what one saw from OEL and Karlsson at that age.

    I think that would be correct on Karlsson – who only emerged as a serious offensive force a couple of years into his NHL career. However, OEL was putting up bigger point totals in the SEL in draft+1. Of course, that’s just raw points without any context over the teams they were playing on or ice time received.

  18. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yup, I didn’t realize that until 2 years ago, or so and I think its a common misconception.

    The ability of an ELC to slide has nothing to do with junior vs. pro but the 10-game threhold is solely with respect to NHL game.

    If a contract is eligible for slide (a function of the age of the player and the “age of the player” when he signed his ELC, it doesn’t matter if they play games in the AHL vs. junior, just that they don’t play 10 in the NHL.

    Another reason not to trade Larsson this year.
    The more competent righty dmen we have the better the odds of Bouchard spending the entire season in the minors.
    Could have major implications for the cap in the next few years.

  19. duct tape and foil says:

    Some pretty bad plays by the young defensemen tonight in Bakersfield

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrOtkB0Nn3k

    This is what the AHL is for. Cleaning that stuff up. Bouchard has to show a ton more defensive intensity before he’s NHL ready.

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    ducttapeandfoil:
    Am I correct that the 15 or so useless NHL games that Bear played 2 years ago is going to mean we need to protect him in the Seattle expansion draft? If yes, damn you again Chiarelli.

    Yes, we have to protect him.

    No, it has nothing to do with those NHL games – even if he had played zero NHL games before this year, he’d still have to be protected.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan,

    Than you Ryan.

  22. Kmart99 says:

    Yeti,

    Wait… do you actually think there is a scientific field in which Ricki is NOT the top expert? He’s a leading developer at advancing analytics to complex resolutions don’t you know?

    I’d suggest leaving all conclusive analysis on anything to the expert. That is singular on purpose.

  23. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: If the Oilers are somehow real contenders come this trade deadline – I don’t mean in or out off a playoff spot by 2-3 points but solidly in and potentially with home ice the, yes, maybe, depending on acquisition cost, I’d be willing to rent Taylor Hall is a winger is what is needed.

    With that said, I do so with full knowledge of zero desire to re-sign Hall. As you stated above, he is going to require a very large contract with term and it will be for his entire 30s, full decline years.

    No way am I on board with signing Taylor Hall to his retirement contract.

    I agree about not being the team to sign Hall to his retirement contract. It’ll be a large number X a lot of years.

    But what WOULD you/other folks be willing to pay him on a 6 or 7 year deal? (acknowledging it probably wouldn’t actually get him signed). He turns 29 mid November 2020, so he’d be 35 for most of the final year of a 7 year deal.

    I think I’d be comfortable with $8M X 7 years if Hall were willing. It’d be interesting to hear what others think.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    I wouldn’t sign him to an $8M X 7 contract.

    Sure, he’ll be worth it (and more) for a year or two but isn’t there a reasonable chance of a steep decline? I know, elite players tend to hang on longer but with his style of play, history, etc., I don’t know.

    Its too risky given what current management is trying to build. I’d rather give that type of money to a younger up and commer.

  25. duct tape and foil says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Right you are – forgot about the below 20 year old part…

    A Player aged 18 or 19 earns a year of professional experience by playing 10 or more NHL games in a given NHL season. A player aged 20 or older (based on age on December 31 of calendar year in which the season starts) earns a year of professional experience by playing 10 or more Professional Games under a standard player contract in a given League Year.

  26. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    He also said he had middle-six potential which is a fucking LIE

  27. Ryan says:

    jp: I agree about not being the team to sign Hall to his retirement contract. It’ll be a large number X a lot of years.

    But what WOULD you/other folks be willing to pay him on a 6 or 7 year deal? (acknowledging it probably wouldn’t actually get him signed). He turns 29 mid November 2020, so he’d be 35 for most of the final year of a 7 year deal.

    I think I’d be comfortable with $8M X 7 years if Hall were willing. It’d be interesting to hear what others think.

    I don’t follow this too closely, but most pundits are speculating over $10m per for Hall.

  28. Pescador says:

    Yeti: Hey Ricki,

    I’ve been on here since the early days, always welcomed your posts. But why not keep them to hockey? The whole “I’m smarter than every other person on the planet” schtick is amusing in that context.

    But leave the climate thing alone. The people working on climate modelling are not some stupid one-dimensional fuckwits like you want to pretend so that you can act out your whole “I’m a mistreated genius” game. They are exceedingly smart, have a far better grasp of the complexity of modelling climate than you will ever do, and aren’t reduced to posting their ideas on a fucking hockey blog.

    I get that you are determined to turn every thread into a referendum on your own personal greatness. But stick to the damned hockey.

    Gracias,
    Yeti

    I always liked you Yeti,
    And now I know why

  29. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I wouldn’t sign him to an $8M X 7 contract.

    Sure, he’ll be worth it (and more) for a year or two but isn’t there a reasonable chance of a steep decline?I know, elite players tend to hang on longer but with his style of play, history, etc., I don’t know.

    Its too risky given what current management is trying to build.I’d rather give that type of money to a younger up and commer.

    Fair enough.

    In part I was thinking about Nuge’s next deal which should come in above $7M (I think general consensus is we want to retain him). He’s 1.5 years younger than Hall and will be just 6 months younger than Taylor when his UFA deal starts (in 2021 vs 2020).

    I’d take Hall over Nuge if their salaries are at all in the same range (+/- $1M), considering you’d be buying nearly the same years of their careers.

  30. Wilde says:

    jp:
    I think I’d be comfortable with $8M X 7 years if Hall were willing. It’d be interesting to hear what others think.

    Worth it.

    Hall isn’t even on a continuum with many players.

    Of a different kind.

  31. Ice Sage says:

    Oilers and 49ers topping the charts.
    Man I love reliving 1988, even sans acid wash

  32. jp says:

    Ryan: I don’t follow this too closely, but most pundits are speculating over $10m per for Hall.

    Yes absolutely, he almost certainly wouldn’t sign for $8M (at the same time you never know, maybe Hall has a soft spot?).

    Because the speculated number is so high the discussion usually stops there with “the Oilers shouldn’t pay that”. So I’m curious how big the gap is – what would people be willing to pay for Hall’s 29-35 year old seasons?

  33. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Averaging almost 15 minutes of TOI as an 18 year old d-man in the SHL is MASSIVE.

    Erik Karlsson had 10 points in his draft plus 1 season in the SHL.

    Yeah I had been trying to find some fancies for Broberg to see how he was doing in his minutes. Trouble navigating the Swedish on the SHL website. Wilde found it. Broberg is tops out of the D on his squad in terms of corsi and Fenwick at approx 55% in both.

    His OIG% (I’m assuming on ice shooting %) is only 7.5%, quite a bit lower than some of the other D. PDO at 95.7%

  34. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Both of those are essentially equally impressive – that TOI as an 18 year old in the SHL is a substantial arrow all on its own.

    I don’t think that’s much different than what one saw from OEL and Karlsson at that age.

    I wasn’t necessarily using that information to infer that Caulfield is the more significant prospect at this stage, although my opinion is that the Oilers would have been better served to draft an F. I just was bored cooking turkey dinner today and was perusing how some oft talked about prospects on this blog where doingnin their respective leagues.

  35. Munny says:

    Ice Sage:
    Oilers and 49ers topping the charts.
    Man I love reliving 1988, even sans acid wash

    My Niners. I’m hearting them hard right now.

  36. Munny says:

    GMB3,

    Those are great numbers for a start to an SHL career.

  37. GMB3 says:

    Munny:
    GMB3,

    Those are great numbers for a start to a SHL career.

    Yes. H/t to Wilde for pointing out where to find the fancies on twitter

  38. Munny says:

    I think Hall will be more motivated to get a Cup than a payday with his next signing.

    I think he’ll be amenable to signing a shorter term contract too.

    IF he’s interested In us, a conversation has to happen.

  39. Munny says:

    There is NO reason for Old Dutch to trade Larsson this season.

  40. Admiral Ackbar says:

    Yeti: Hey Ricki,

    I’ve been on here since the early days, always welcomed your posts. But why not keep them to hockey? The whole “I’m smarter than every other person on the planet” schtick is amusing in that context.

    But leave the climate thing alone. The people working on climate modelling are not some stupid one-dimensional fuckwits like you want to pretend so that you can act out your whole “I’m a mistreated genius” game. They are exceedingly smart, have a far better grasp of the complexity of modelling climate than you will ever do, and aren’t reduced to posting their ideas on a fucking hockey blog.

    I get that you are determined to turn every thread into a referendum on your own personal greatness. But stick to the damned hockey.

    Gracias,
    Yeti

    Thank you!

    Sadly, anyone that opposes him is written off as another one of the ignorant masses. The dissonance is strong with this one…

  41. Munny says:

    C’mon Sharks

  42. jp says:

    GMB3,

    OriginalPouzar: Averaging almost 15 minutes of TOI as an 18 year old d-man in the SHL is MASSIVE.

    Erik Karlsson had 10 points in his draft plus 1 season in the SHL.

    Yeti: I think that would be correct on Karlsson – who only emerged as a serious offensive force a couple of years into his NHL career. However, OEL was putting up bigger point totals in the SEL in draft+1. Of course, that’s just raw points without any context over the teams they were playing on or ice time received.

    HockeyDB and Elite Prospects show Broberg 10-0-2-2 so far in the SHL, not sure if there are a couple of recent games missing. Either way it’s in the 8-12 point range for a full SHL season.

    How did current NHL defensemen from Sweden do in their draft +1 season? I just looked through on NHL.com sorting by last years TOI/game.

    Alex Edler – in SuperElit (Swedish Jr league)
    John Klingberg – 26-0-5-5 in SHL
    Erik Karlsson – 45-5-5-10 in SHL
    Hampus Lindholm – in the AHL
    Oscar Klefbom – 33-0-2-2 in SHL
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson – 42-9-18-27 in Allsvenskan (Swedish 2nd pro league)
    Mattias Ekholm – 38-2-11-13 in Allsvenskan (this was actually his draft year at age 19)
    Victor Hedman – in the NHL
    Erik Gustafsson – in SuperElit (he wasn’t actually drafted until age 20)
    Adam Larsson – in the NHL
    Rasmus Dahlin – in the NHL
    Jonas Brodin – 49-0-8-8 in SHL
    Anton Stralman – 41-9-9-18 in Allsvenskan (this was actually his draft year at age 19)
    Niklas Kronwall – 37-1-4-5 in SHL (draft year, age 19)
    Niklas Hjalmarsson – missed most of the year with injury – draft +2 37-2-0-2 in SHL
    Robert Hagg – 50-1-5-6 in SHL
    Marcus Pettersson – 14-0-0-0 in SHL, 10-2-2-4 in Allsvenskan, also played 20 games in SuperElit
    Patrik Nemeth – 38-1-6-7 in SHL

    I guess the answer generally is that being an SHL regular at all is a good thing, but there’s no requirement for it in draft +1 to have a good career. These are the success stories, so I have no idea how many 19 year old defensemen play in the SHL that don’t have NHL careers. I guess not so many but I don’t know.

    The point scoring seems almost arbitrary. Some no offence NHL guys got 6-8 points in their SHL seasons (Hagg, Nemeth), some offensive difference makers got the same or less (Klingberg, Karlsson).

    I’ll take this as encouraging though. Basically no one ever shows offence in the SHL at this age, so what Broberg has done (play but not score much) seems not to be a down arrow at all.

    Random side note: interesting that the 3 best age 19 or younger SHL seasons by the players above were Hedman and Dahlin at 18, and our own Adam Larsson at 17.

  43. Munny says:

    Another Flames loss in the bank.

    Gobble gobble.

  44. jp says:

    GMB3: Yeah I had been trying to find some fancies for Broberg to see how he was doing in his minutes. Trouble navigating the Swedish on the SHL website. Wilde found it. Broberg is tops out of the D on his squad in terms of corsi and Fenwick at approx 55% in both.

    His OIG% (I’m assuming on ice shooting %) is only 7.5%, quite a bit lower than some of the other D. PDO at 95.7%

    That’s pretty impressive, thanks for sharing.

  45. flyfish1168 says:

    Thank you talbot. Keep up the good work.

  46. hunter1909 says:

    Flames trade for 0-0 NHL penalty minute leader Milan Lucic;
    Oilers receive NHL 7-0 goal scoring leader James Neal in return

    Flames add Talbot to their goalie team; Talbot lets in the first shot on goal of tonight’s game;

    Oilers currently lead the NHL after 5 games with a 5-0 record;

    Flames are in the hunt for the final playoff spot; with Lucic and Talbot and Reider already certain fans one says how much he’s still trying to like Lucic

  47. Munny says:

    A note on Broberg:

    The coach is going to have him learning and playing and proving a responsible game.

    He needs the coach’s trust to get bigger minutes.

    He’s not playing the same free-wheeling style he played in the World Championships.

    He will one day be that player as a pro, with the defensive acumen to back it up.

    He is not that player today.

  48. oilersfan says:

    I can’t believe the flames took Talbot , Lucic and Rieder

    Don’t they have pro scouts ?

    Haha I love it though

    Suck it flames and all your fans

  49. hunter1909 says:

    Open question re Lucic:

    bwahahahahahahahahahaha

  50. BlacqueJacque says:

    I honestly prefer watching the Flames lose to seeing the Oilers win.

    Also, the Sharks TV commentary is bar none the best in the league.

  51. TopShelf says:

    Has anyone noticed John Marino made the penguins out of camp,logged 18:14 in ice time tonight, which I believe was second pair, it looks like the oilers drafted another good one, it’s just tough to hold on to them all I guess

  52. Wilde says:

    GMB3,

    Just to add, Corsi/Fenwick on the Liiga/SHL websites are unadjusted and the only modifier available is something they call Corsi/Fenwick Close (I mentioned this when I posted Yessa’s numbers in the previous comment page of this post) which is shot events from “when the game is within a goal in the first two periods or tied in the third ”

    Through that modifier, Broberg drops down to fifth among regulars on his team. I don’t know how valid the ‘Close’ modifier is, but it’s all we have for trying to look into the sheltering he is (and certainly should be at his age) receiving.

    I think I’ll put a chart together with all of the other teenage defensemen that played in the SHL and their possession numbers / EV TOI if I get time. That’s absolutely going to be way better than looking at scoring because of what we all know (and have said today) about SHL D scoring.

    Luckily, we also have Soderstrom.

    From when I took a glance already though, it’s pretty fucking funny that Nils Lundkvist was drafted at #28 in 2018.

  53. Pescador says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Pescador,

    I mean I could maybe see the Jets trading for Russell but they would not give up anything substantive.

    Trading one of Jones/Sammy/Lagesson might get you a decent depth forward from another team.

    The substantive give from Winnipeg would be the cap space we would garner from divesting ourselves from Russell’s cap hit. This year & next.
    Are the Oilers required to protect Russell in the upcoming expansion draft?
    If so, then we will be forced into a buyout and further dead cap on the books.
    What would you want in return from the Jets? I’ll take a 2026 7th round pick for that

  54. Kraz says:

    If Hall wanted to come back I don’t see how you wouldn’t want to sign him. When elite talent becomes available you have to bet on it. Just look at how it worked out for the blackhawks signing Hossa. Also I always thought Hall would benefit greatly from a load management along the lines of what they do in the NBA. Don’t play him in back to backs and try to keep him around 18 minutes a game and get your moneys worth from him in the playoffs when he is healthy and well rested.

  55. Side says:

    TopShelf:
    Has anyone noticed John Marino made the penguins out of camp,logged 18:14 in ice time tonight, which I believe was second pair, it looks like the oilers drafted another good one, it’s just tough to hold on to them all I guess

    Marino is one I don’t fault the Oilers for losing as I understand Marino had a Chiarelli connection.

    No Chiarelli, no Marino unfortunately.

    But fortunately, that means no Chiarelli!

  56. TopShelf says:

    Side,

    Yeah I don’t fault the oilers either for this one, it does give evidence that our drafting is getting better though, 6th round pick playing top four minutes is a good sign of that

  57. Pescador says:

    oilersfan:
    I can’t believe the flames took Talbot , Lucic and Rieder

    Don’t they have pro scouts ?

    Haha I love it though

    Suck it flames and all your fans

    Flames are going to miss the playoffs & those former Oilers are going to cost Treliving his job

  58. Material Elvis says:

    Yeti: Hey Ricki,

    I’ve been on here since the early days, always welcomed your posts. But why not keep them to hockey? The whole “I’m smarter than every other person on the planet” schtick is amusing in that context.

    But leave the climate thing alone. The people working on climate modelling are not some stupid one-dimensional fuckwits like you want to pretend so that you can act out your whole “I’m a mistreated genius” game. They are exceedingly smart, have a far better grasp of the complexity of modelling climate than you will ever do, and aren’t reduced to posting their ideas on a fucking hockey blog.

    I get that you are determined to turn every thread into a referendum on your own personal greatness. But stick to the damned hockey.

    Gracias,
    Yeti

    Yetis: 1, Bears: 0. That might have sent him into early hibernation.

  59. Pescador says:

    jp: Fair enough.

    In part I was thinking about Nuge’s next deal which should come in above $7M (I think general consensus is we want to retain him). He’s 1.5 years younger than Hall and will be just 6 months younger than Taylor when his UFA deal starts (in 2021 vs 2020).

    I’d take Hall over Nuge if their salaries are at all in the same range (+/- $1M), considering you’d be buying nearly the same years of their careers.

    No Nuge must be kept on the roster, he just has too.
    Starting d-core 2020/21?
    Nurse – Bear
    Klefbom – Perrson
    Lagesson – Jones.
    Lose: Russell ($4M), Larrson ($4.1M) and Benning ($1.9M)
    Sign Taylor Hall for say $9.5M x 5 yrs
    Dammit! I can’t believe I am getting sucked into this,
    I’m drunk on turkey

  60. YKOil says:

    I go back and forth on this

    Hall … Nov 1991 … 567 of 743 possible games (76%) … 202g 312a for 514 pts … 0.907 ppg
    ….. number of seasons of 90%+ games played = 2 (but this includes 2012-13)

    RNH … Apr 1993 … 549 of 661 possible games (83%) … 147g 238a for 385 pts … 0.701 ppg
    ….. number of seasons of 90%+ games played = 4 (does not include 2012-13)

    Hall is the better play driver but is a winger, is injured more often and is 1.5 years older. Love Hall as a rental (pending price) but a 6+ year deal of $10m-$11m a year is scary as hell. My guess is $10m even.

    RNH, pending his performance this year, will be in the Kevin Hayes range (my guess is $7.25m) and his contract can go 7 years (I push for 4 to 6 myself).

    Is Hall worth $2.75 – $3.75m more a year? Not sure about that.

  61. geowal says:

    TopShelf:
    Has anyone noticed John Marino made the penguins out of camp,logged 18:14 in ice time tonight, which I believe was second pair, it looks like the oilers drafted another good one, it’s just tough to hold on to them all I guess

    I still think the draft pick compensation was on the low side. He has no leverage this season. If they thought he had a chance at NHL this season, they could have written in a higher conditional draft pick scenario as pot’l comp. And if they didn’t see Nhl as a possibility this season, so they thought they’d lose him for nothing…what didn’t they see that the Penguins do? What’s missing here?

  62. Ribs says:

    I welcome your opinion on anything, Rickithebear. Just sayin’.

    I am liking what I am seeing from the Oilers so far. They still don’t appear to be a great hockey team, but they are putting forth the effort to grab points early in the season and that gives a huge boost to their playoff hopes.

    I don’t know if it’s the maturing of the core or if the coaching staff has drilled something into these guys, or if it’s just lady luck, but something has appeared to have clicked with this squad. I love seeing the communication they display on the ice this season. It’s what the vintage Oilers did, it’s what the Hawks and Kings teams did, and it’s what the Pens do as well. This sign alone gives me hope for a successful season.

    The schedule has been (relatively) soft so far, and looking ahead a bit, it doesn’t look so bad either. I have a belief that schedules can win championships, so this is good news. I’ve always wondered who comes up with the schedules and who holds influence there, as I think it can give very predictable outcomes to games. Perhaps our new veteran GM has an upper hand when it comes to these things? Hmmm…

  63. GMB3 says:

    geowal: I still think the draft pick compensation was on the low side. He has no leverage this season. If they thought he had a chance at NHL this season, they could have written in a higher conditional draft pick scenario as pot’l comp. And if they didn’t see Nhl as a possibility this season, so they thought they’d lose him for nothing…what didn’t they see that the Penguins do? What’s missing here?

    New GM. LT often states that former GM’s draft picks are orphans. If he wasn’t going to sign with us, he would have been a free agent anyways I believe. Tough situation for Holland. Good for Marino though

  64. GMB3 says:

    jp,

    The extra games I were referring too were the 5 Champions league games he’s played this year, shows up in the tournament section on EP.

  65. SwedishPoster says:

    Yeah as mentioned above I wouldn’t sweat points for young D in the SHL, it’s rare that they put up much in terms of points, the main focus is making sure they survive the defensive side of things and clean up mistakes when moving the puck. It’s a vetty league, most coaches take their time before they trust their younglings. It’s also the second best league in europe but easily the fastest and tightest checking, player quality in the KHL is obviously higher but it’s a more tactical league, more trapping. Former Oiler Roman Horak who went from the KHL to the SHL said the difference was shocking, that you had much less time with the puck in all three zones, and it was a strange feeling going to a lesser league that was more difficult to play in. Similar stuff has been mentioned by other guys as well, there was actually a project by the swedish hockey association a few years ago where they interviewed players who had played in both leagues and that was the main takeaway, more skill in the KHL, tougher checking in the SHL. So it’s a difficult league to play in as a young player and it takes time to adapt even for the high end talents.

    Broberg was one of his teams better players for the first few games, for the last couple he’s merely been good. His team played three games last week and only gave up a single goal so the D group as a whole has been stellar. Him and Berglund are playing well together, Berglund has been the one to shine the last few while Broberg has played the base while it was the other way around to start. They’re third pair but they roll em pretty even 5v5. Berglund’s been getting some PP of late. In the CHL they both been getting more special teams and thus total toi.

    Broberg is playing good D, moves the puck well and tend to add at least one highlight reel play every game, not connecting yet but it’ll come, in the 4-0 win against Malmö he had a nice shot fake to backhand at top speed that would’ve been a beaut. He’s doing his moves at full throttle and I think that’s why he’s not quite hitting bulls eye yet, but once he’s fully in control those plays will be almost impossible to stop so I prefer for him to keep making them at top speed rather than slowing them down for the sake of efficancy in the now because once he gets handle on them it’ll be such a dangerous weapon.
    I think he’ll murder the WJCs.

    Oh and the low hockey IQ thing has to die, Datsyuk he ain’t but it’s not an issue. His coaches have actually been lauding his smartness on the ice.

  66. jp says:

    GMB3:
    jp,

    The extra games I were referring too were the 5 Champions league games he’s played this year, shows up in the tournament section on EP.

    Yeah i got that but IIRC you said 12 SHL and 5 champions. I see 10 SHL vs 12 though. Not saying you’re wrong or anything, just explaining why I quoted different numbers.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:
    OriginalPouzar,

    He also said he had middle-six potential which is a fucking LIE

    Who?

  68. Reja says:

    Pescador: Flames are going to miss the playoffs & those former Oilers are going to cost Treliving his job

    If Rittich gets injured or tires with the heavy workload because you can’t spot the opposition team a 1-0 lead 2 minutes into every second game like the Oilers have done for the last 2 years and expect to make the Playoffs.

  69. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Lucic update:

    He has 4 shots in 6 games.

    hahaahah

  70. Reja says:

    Any word on the Starter? I love how tight lipped Tippett is with the game line-up. Most folks feel Tippett will go with the big man Kosh between the pipes I on the other hand feel Tippett’s staying on the Smith train non stop right through downtown Chicago.

  71. Reja says:

    Dr. Taboggan:
    Lucic update:

    He has 4 shots in 6 games.

    hahaahah

    Talbot 0-1 850 save percentage
    Rieder goose eggs and is a -4

  72. McNuge93 says:

    oilersfan:
    I can’t believe the flames took Talbot , Lucic and Rieder

    What I cant believe is that they didn’t also sign Gryba and Davidson after their PTO to shore up their league best defense.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    TopShelf:
    Has anyone noticed John Marino made the penguins out of camp,logged 18:14 in ice time tonight, which I believe was second pair, it looks like the oilers drafted another good one, it’s just tough to hold on to them all I guess

    Yes, this community has discussed Marino making the Penguins.

    That’s some solid ice time – his advanced metrics show that he’s getting absolutely caved mind you. Like on the low 30s, GF% of 0 and expected GF% in the mid-30s.

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