2019-20 Game 62: Oilers at Kings

There are real roster uncertainties as I write this, transactions on Saturday to send Colby Cave and Evan Bouchard to Bakersfield Condors await the bookend maneuvre. Connor McDavid isn’t always the lead story, while also always being the lead story. If he’s playing tonight, the Oilers have improved enormously overnight. That’s a fact.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide Trade Deadline: Oilers countdown to trade deadline involves age old dilemma
  • New Jonathan Willis: They shoot, they don’t score: NHLers who just can’t find the back of the net
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why cap issues mean McDavid’s return could be Oilers’ only pre-deadline move
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers lack deadline flexibility due to injuries, few assets and bonuses
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
  • Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Next-night masters: How the Oilers beat the Hurricanes and improved to 6-0 in the 2nd half of back-to-backs
  • Lowetide: Oilers reap benefits of Bakersfield Condors’ strong development process, even in a losing season
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Despite ‘transformation’ with Oilers, Zack Kassian’s on-ice actions come under scrutiny again
  • Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers are playing their best 5-on-5 hockey of the season
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
  • Jonathan Willis: 10 overlooked trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
  • Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20

OILERS AFTER 62 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 22-34-6, 50 points; goal differential -34
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 33-21-8, 74 points; goal differential +12
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 27-31-4, 58 points; goal differential -33
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 26-29-7, 59 points; goal differential -23
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 32-22-7, 71 points; goal differential +3

Terrific season in those numbers, and many youngsters have emerged in real time. I don’t recall a season where more roster players enjoy career seasons or close, and in fact many players are enjoying impressive first full NHL seasons. Lots to applaud across the roster, coaching and management included.

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
  • Current 10 games: 0-1-0

OILERS IN FEBRUARY

  • Oilers in February 2016: 2-9-0, four points; goal differential -21
  • Oilers in February 2017: 5-6-0, 10 points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in February 2018: 3-7-1, seven points; goal differential -4
  • Oilers in February 2019: 3-5-3, nine points; goal differential -10
  • Oilers in February 2020: 5-4-1, 11 points; goal differential +1

One of the things we’ll need to discuss in the offseason is the run by Edmonton starting January 1. I haven’t gone back to look over the team’s history this century, but this season (11-5-3), the 2016-17 campaign (13-8-2) and 2005-06 (8-6-4) all landed in a positive direction Jan. 1 through February 23.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
  • At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 5-4-1, 11 points in 10 games

Oilers need this game tonight. It sets up the deadline in a positive way (Edmonton would slide back into second in the Pacific) and gives the team enough breathing room to consider trading valuable assets. Big game. LAK aren’t an easy out, and that’s when everyone is healthy.

OILERS 2019-20

The article I wrote for The Athletic yesterday (the trade dilemma) drove home the fact Ken Holland needs to acquire a left winger for the McDavid line. You’d like Tomas Tatar but Tyler Ennis is a solid option.

Elliotte Friedman mentioned Edmonton’s interest in Mike Green last night, Jonathan Willis wrote about him recently so I won’t retrace his steps. I will post his Puck IQ numbers against elites, though, Green isn’t your ordinary broken down blue.

Oscar Klefbom has played 33 percent of his five on five time against elites this season, that’s the range for Green. Detroit is a terrible team, so Klefbom’s goal differential against elites (14-13) is superior to Green’s in Detroit (5-12) but that DFF percentage (48.20) for Green is quality. Ken Holland likes old people. This would be his first “I know a guy” deal since arriving, although he did sign Riley Sheahan as a free agent.

The big question for me is who is leaving to make room? Kris Russell has been mentioned but that’s the cap issue, what about the RH side? Edmonton currently employs Bear, Larsson and Benning there, so if Green is coming in, one of those men must be leaving. Right? Fascinating. Larsson? Benning? It sure as hell isn’t Bear.

TORONTO

Maple Leafs fans are hurting units this morning, that was a bad beat and it will be remembered. Exacerbating things is a long, long list of articles with titles like ‘How long before Mcdavid wants out of Edmonton?’ that have enraged Canadian outposts for decades. So there’s no sympathy, not an ounce, across this great nation this morning. To the contrary. Ken Holland might want to make a call to Kyle Dubas this morning, asking if he needs a rugged forward or defenseman. Hey, it’s a cruel business.

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824 Responses to "2019-20 Game 62: Oilers at Kings"

« Older Comments
  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    What a massive return for Pageau – thanks goodness Holland isn’t willing to play in that market this year.

  2. jp says:

    Conditions on all picks, but holy crap!

  3. Bulging Twine says:

    Totally
    I really like the player (he’s good in the playoffs) but….that’s a lot

    career year
    18% shooting

  4. Bulging Twine says:

    career 11%

  5. nelson88 says:

    Hoping for Marleau at a cheap price. Not a sexy addition but we shouldn’t be trading important pieces and valuable draft picks. Patty would look quite good on 97’s wing!

  6. tileguy says:

    2020 first rounder top 3 protected would move to 2021
    No conditions on second rounder
    Third rounder only if Isles win Stanley cup this year
    So basically traded for a first and second

  7. leadfarmer says:

    I’m very glad we didnt pay that for Pageau and then follow it up with a 5-6 mil contract that he will probably want

  8. Bulging Twine says:

    Mike Green is 29th in the league for Defenceman for outlet pass completions with 9.65 per game

  9. Bulging Twine says:

    Trochek’s gone

    CAR

  10. jp says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Mike Green is 29th in the league for Defenceman for outlet pass completions with 9.65 per game

    He puts up points too, until this season.

    Last season he scored 1.36 P/60 5v5. That would have been 4th among all Oilers last season >750 minutes (behind only McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge). He was 13th in P/60 among D in the NHL.

    In the 3 seasons before this one he scored 1.08 P/60. 16th among NHL D >2500 minutes.

    I’m really curious to see what he has left.

  11. Bulging Twine says:

    Me as well.

    I’ve always considered him soft defensively

    Let’s see what he’s got

  12. Bulging Twine says:

    “Every year I think this is the one where Green falls off, but credit to him, he just keeps on being a very good player. On the car crash of a team that is the Red Wings, Green is one the only players who is treading close to even in inner slot shots and slot pass differentials. He completes carry outs at an obscene rate, and is the only player on the list above who is significantly above average in all styles of controlled exits.

    Green is also surprisingly good at defending his own blue line, by far the best on the Red Wings, and he recovers loose pucks at a higher rate than any other defenceman available.

    The decline for Green as he’s entered his mid-30s has come pretty much exclusively in his offence, where he’s now below league average at even strength, but he’s always been better in other areas of the game than many wanted to give him credit for.

    If you’re looking for the offensive dynamo Green once was, look elsewhere, but he is still a very strong top-four option.”

    – Andrew Berkshire Sportsnet

  13. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Trochek’s gone

    CAR

    Huge. I love me some Trocheck and Carolina has a tendency to add my favourites. If they can add Lehner and some D help with one of their 1sts+, they’re going to be a scary matchup in the playoffs.

  14. jp says:

    Yeah. It’s definitely possible what’s left is “not much” but there’s upside potential here. And the cost was also “not much”.

  15. Bulging Twine says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: Huge. I love me some Trocheck and Carolina has a tendency to add my favourites. If they can add Lehner and some D help with one of their 1sts+, they’re going to be a scary matchup in the playoffs.

    Trochek 2.08 pts/60 5×5 while shooting 7.2% 5×5

  16. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bulging Twine:
    “Every year I think this is the one where Green falls off, but credit to him, he just keeps on being a very good player. On the car crash of a team that is the Red Wings, Green is one the only players who is treading close to even in inner slot shots and slot pass differentials. He completes carry outs at an obscene rate, and is the only player on the list above who is significantly above average in all styles of controlled exits.

    Green is also surprisingly good at defending his own blue line, by far the best on the Red Wings, and he recovers loose pucks at a higher rate than any other defenceman available.

    The decline for Green as he’s entered his mid-30s has come pretty much exclusively in his offence, where he’s now below league average at even strength, but he’s always been better in other areas of the game than many wanted to give him credit for.

    If you’re looking for the offensive dynamo Green once was, look elsewhere, but he is still a very strong top-four option.”

    – Andrew Berkshire Sportsnet

    Wow.

    Maybe he is a Larsson replacement?

  17. N64 says:

    SwedishPoster: Thing with Benning is that he makes sense both for a playoff team looking for depth or a rebuilding team looking for rookie shelter

    In this case the playoff team should be Edmonton and then a trade after the playoffs

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    If FLA is “selling”, Dadanov is of interest to me.

  19. Bulging Twine says:

    Man! I was pretty surprised to read that glowing report!

  20. jp says:

    Yeah, super encouraging whatever Holland’s plan is.

  21. CMcD4PM says:

    Andreas Athanasiou!

  22. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Feel bad for gags, thought it was maybe his last hurrah with Oilers in the playoffs.

  23. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Great work Holland. Exciting times. Now make the playoffs lol.

  24. tcho says:

    Captain Obvious says: you’re not going to win too many games giving up 16 shots a period. Hopefully the boys can pick it up.

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