I Found the Essence Rare

by Lowetide

Holy hell the kids helped this team get to the deadline, and in fact impacted Ken Holland’s wish list today. Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones arrive at the deadline as NHL regulars, and the needs of the team are in different areas than we would have thought back in August. That’s a fine season for the draft and development group.

Last night’s game saw the return of Captain McDavid, and another impressive button down effort in order to win a close game. After midnight, Ken Holland added Mike Green. Today? Has to be a scoring winger for the No. 1 line.


The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid returns to the Oilers; now the task is to get him linemates
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers bolster blue line by acquiring Mike Green; Is a scoring winger next?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ European prospects offer interesting options for the future
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers need a left wing before the NHL trade deadline
  • Lowetide Trade Deadline: Oilers countdown to trade deadline involves age old dilemma
  • Jonathan Willis: They shoot, they don’t score: NHLers who just can’t find the back of the net
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why cap issues mean McDavid’s return could be Oilers’ only pre-deadline move
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers lack deadline flexibility due to injuries, few assets and bonuses
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
  • Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Next-night masters: How the Oilers beat the Hurricanes and improved to 6-0 in the 2nd half of back-to-backs
  • Lowetide: Oilers reap benefits of Bakersfield Condors’ strong development process, even in a losing season
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
  • Jonathan Willis: 10 overlooked trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
  • Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20


  • Oilers in 2015-16: 22-34-6, 50 points; goal differential -34
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 33-21-8, 74 points; goal differential +12
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 27-31-4, 58 points; goal differential -33
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 26-29-7, 59 points; goal differential -23
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 33-22-7, 73 points; goal differential +4

Tippett’s Oilers were uncomfortable in one-goal games early in the season, or maybe I was just uncomfortable watching them in those close contests. Now it seems to change little when things get tight. Good sign for the playoffs.


  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
  • Current 10 games: 1-1-0


  • Oilers in February 2016: 2-9-0, four points; goal differential -21
  • Oilers in February 2017: 5-6-0, 10 points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in February 2018: 3-7-1, seven points; goal differential -4
  • Oilers in February 2019: 3-5-3, nine points; goal differential -10
  • Oilers in February 2020: 6-4-1, 13 points; goal differential +2

Lots of good things in this month, especially when you consider several of the wins came with 97 on the shelf. This team has some iron, first Oilers team in some time with it.


  • On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 6-4-1, 13 points in 11 games

This sets up the road trip well, Edmonton’s game in Anaheim on Tuesday will be another big one. Of course, btb in Vegas is wildly unfair but this is the world we live in.

OILERS 2019-20

McDavid returned and flattened the NHL with six shots, a goal and two assists. We’ll talk about the Mike Green trade in a bit, but first here are the five on five numbers unless noted, and all via Natural Stat Trick.

LINE 1 Nuge-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 16:10, going 16-10 Corsi, 9-5 shots, 1-0 goals and 7-3 HDSC.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored again, he’s on fire with this line. Three shots, all HDSC, created two rebounds, damn near set up Chiasson late on the power play. Leon Draisaitl scored a power-play goal and at five on five had four shots, three HDSC, took a penalty and won 12 of 19 in the dot. He was robbed late. Kailer Yamamoto scared the hell out of everyone when he appeared to twist his ankle early on. He had an assist, a great chance that was tipped over the net, and did his usual feverish forechecking.

LINE 2 Sam Gagner-Connor McDavid-Alex Chiasson played 11:49, going 7-12 Corsi, 5-8 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-2 HDSC.

Sam Gagner had one good look but missed the net, he was useful on McDavid’s goal by making sure to be enough of a threat for Doughty to respect him. McDavid was brilliant as always, seemed to be even more effective after getting screwed over by the refs. Had a goal, six shots, three HDSC, created three rebounds and had two assists that came outside five on five. Alex Chiasson had an enormous power-play chance late, but didn’t get much done five on five.

LINE 3 Tyler Benson-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 9:25, going 7-11 Corsi, 5-7 shots, no goals and 2-4 HDSC.

Tyler Benson had a good chance early on a pass to the slot from Archibald. Had a giveaway later and is starting to hold on to the puck longer, that’s a good sign. Riley Sheahan had two shots, two giveaways and won four of 12 on the dot. Josh Archibald scored an EN goal, took a penalty and skated miles. Good player. I don’t think this line will last.

LINE 4 Jujhar Khaira-Gaetan Haas-Patrick Russell played 8:22, going 7-5 Corsi, 4-1 shots, no goals and no HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira had a reasonable chance, took a late penalty and hit several people. Gaetan Haas falls down more than any athlete since Lonnie Smith, but like Smith he does it so much his recoveries are quick and explosive. Drove the Kings crazy, drew a penalty, had one shot and won two of six on the dot. We’ll know tomorrow how the team plans to use him for the rest of the year. Patrick Russell had a third period shift that made me laugh, he just would not let that puck out of the Kings zone. He’s a dogged player.

PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 23:31 together, 12-11 shots, 0-1 goals and 4-2 HDSC.

Darnell Nurse didn’t play the Dustin Brown goal well but I thought he had a fine game otherwise. Knocked down pucks, was physical, broke up plays in the neutral zone. Five shots, one HDSC. Ethan Bear played what might have been his best game of the year. Seriously. Under constant pressure, he consistently calmed the waters and sent effective outlet passes. I mean he was splendid. Two shots, TK, GV, 10 miles of great passes. Spent 1:08 on the PP.

PAIRING TWO Caleb Jones and Adam Larsson played 18:49, going 8-12 Corsi, 4-6 shots, 2-0 goals and 3-5 HDSC.

Caleb Jones had a tremendous evening, grabbing two assists on good passes (one on the PP). He got beat by Kempe to the net but rookies make mistakes and Jones doesn’t make many. Adam Larsson seems to be adjusting to Jones, relying on him for speed and passing options but also dropping the hammer and allowing Jones safe passage. Had one good look and got caught with outside speed a couple of times, but overall played well.

PAIRING THREE William Lagesson and Matt Benning played 8 minutes, going 6-8 Corsi, 5-4 shots, no goals and 2-2 HDSC.

William Lagesson had two shots, one a hammer, and blocked a couple of shots. He passed well although not often. Matt Benning had one shot and a hit, I thought he played well in limited minutes.

GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 21 of 23, .913, including seven of eight HDSC. It took some time but he has emerged as the starter based on January 1+ usage.


Ken Holland pulled the trigger on his third Oilers trade (dealing John Marino, acquiring James Neal) by acquiring Mike Green from the Detroit Red Wings. He’s a good addition to a group who could use some experience and I also wonder about the health of one of the RH blue (Larsson or Benning specifically) as being the catalyst for this deal.

The return for Detroit is Kyle Brodziak (to make the money work) and a pick. The pick has some caveats: It’s a 2020 fourth but becomes a third in 2021 if the Oilers make the Western Conference final and if Green plays half the games in the first two rounds. 


I’ll be on TSN1260’s trade deadline coverage today from 10-2, it looks like we’ll see the Oilers trade for a forward either just before or during the show. Jon and Daniel (and me) have written and are writing pieces for The Athletic to cover the Green trade (and ones to come) from every angle today. Please stay tuned and keep reading! Should be a fun day.


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If FLA is “selling”, Dadanov is of interest to me.


I don’t know that they’re selling.

Trocheck returned NHLers Haula and Wallmark who can help right now AND 2 nice prospects.

The trade doesn’t hurt much/at all now and also adds some prospects for the future (Haula is a UFA and Trocheck is the best player in the deal so it makes sense, but…)

Edit: Dadonov would absolutely be a great add though


I am fine with Oilers “simply” adding depth and injury coverage with the Green trade – going into a playoff push and playoffs with:
*could swing to 3RD IF needed


Is rather “luxurious”. Next year, hopefully including Berglund to the RHD mix the team will likely be moving on from Green, Russell and Benning…possibly Larsson, but I think they should keep him around.

However, with the Green addition I am not opposed to trading Benning at this time for much needed F help. Draft picks are beginning to run low…BUT would you trade the 2020 2nd (and perhaps a later round pick in 2021 and a body) for Strome or Buchnevich? Are Rangers buyers or sellers today?

At the very “least” I would like to see Ennis brought in at this time. That trade should not cost much. Possibly Marleau, as plan B, depending on the prices.

Speaking of draft picks – interesting thought – if the Oilers can continue to win with Neal hurt and/or HS, do they sit him to avoid giving up the 2020 3rd to Calgary? That would be a sweet “FU” to the Phlegms. Luc has 6 goals, if he scores 10 (doubtful!), the Oilers could start getting Neal some games at the end of the season. Regardless, I think keeping that 3rd round pick this year is SIGNIFICANT ADD for the team moving forward / moreso than what Neal can add to the team in the stretch…and I think they can continue to win and stay above 0.500 without Neal in the line-up. Barring further injuries / suspensions. This is also why the “Ennis” like addition would be quite helpful!

Jethro Tull

Strange trade, speaks to me of either one bona fide NHL D-man is more injured than previously thought, or Ken doesn’t think the depth is ready for a hard play-off match-up.

Boosh up, evaluated, then down, then Green trade?

It’s basically a scrub cap-wise, maybe Green signs for cheaper for two years?

Maybe there will be a money for money trade later for a better forward for Connor. Maybe not.

Hard to smell what Ken is cooking in there.


We’ve learned that prior to yesterday’s trade, the Edmonton #Oilers first placed another player on LTIR.

We think that player is Kris Russel.

This now means that after the placement and the trade, the Oliers now have $2,972,500 in LTIR Relief remaining.

Edit: Looks like the above tweet might have been deleted.

Edit2: Looks like it’s back.


I have a feeling that the other shoe to drop with the green trade is Larsson for a forward. Maybe I’m projecting though, I just think Chiasson, Gagner as McDavid’s wingers is a crying shame, and that could maybe fix that a bit.


Agreed. Although I don’t think they are going to trade Larsson right now. McD having to play with those two wingers at this point in the season is horrible! Chia has historical drag effects on McD. They need to get someone that can add to that line…


I thought this from last thread was relevant and worth re-posting. Thanks Bulging T.

Bulging Twine:
“Every year I think this is the one where Green falls off, but credit to him, he just keeps on being a very good player. On the car crash of a team that is the Red Wings, Green is one the only players who is treading close to even in inner slot shots and slot pass differentials. He completes carry outs at an obscene rate, and is the only player on the list above who is significantly above average in all styles of controlled exits.

Green is also surprisingly good at defending his own blue line, by far the best on the Red Wings, and he recovers loose pucks at a higher rate than any other defenceman available.

The decline for Green as he’s entered his mid-30s has come pretty much exclusively in his offence, where he’s now below league average at even strength, but he’s always been better in other areas of the game than many wanted to give him credit for.

If you’re looking for the offensive dynamo Green once was, look elsewhere, but he is still a very strong top-four option.”

– Andrew Berkshire Sportsnet


Tyler Ennis & Jesper Fast are inexpensive pending UFAs out there.

Are we worried about Mike Smith’s bonuses carrying over to next year?

Woodguy v2.0

WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

STL 19
COL 18
DAL 16

VGP 12
VAN 11
EDM 11


Out of playoffs
SJS -6
ANA -6
LAK -13

-All ties broken by games played.

-EDM is 6 points over Bettman better than 9th in Conference. Can’t see daylight yet, but I can see my hands in front of my face and it’s getting brighter.

Relevant games today: None

Woodguy v2.0

EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

BOS 27
TBY 23

WSH 20
PIT 19
NYI 15

PHI 15
CAR 13

Out of playoffs
CBJ 11
NJD -3
OTT -9
DET -30

-All ties broken by gp.

-TOR is in 10th place in the conference and currently has a playoff spot. I kinda hope the season ends that way too (or FLA getting the spot while in 10th) as the NHL will probably respond with a change in playoff seeding. You just can’t have that a possible outcome.

Relevant games today:

OTT (+180) at CBJ (-220) – Jack *probably* has this. Line is probably a bit too heavy on him though. No value here.

CAR lost Pesce long term on the weekend in the TOR game. That’s 2 of the best RHD in the league they’ve lostin Hamilton and Pesce. They might not hang on to their spot.

Interested to see if they trade for a Dman today.

Jethro Tull

GordieHoweHatTrick: Speaking of draft picks – interesting thought – if the Oilers can continue to win with Neal hurt and/or HS, do they sit him to avoid giving up the 2020 3rd to Calgary? That would be a sweet “FU” to the Phlegms.

Had it been any of the previous regimes since Slats, I would say yes, this is something the Oilers would do and would be spoke behind closed doors around the league, leading to barn fight challenges.

However, Kenny and Dave bring probity to their jobs. I believe that if they both think Neal in or out would give them the best chance to win, then they would make the decision based on that. And if it’s Neal out, then I suspect Ken would handle it with class. Whatever else I’ve though about him, I’ve always believed him to have integrity.


It seemed like Neal’s injury was a little more significant than initially thought.
If the team is in a position to have him “heal” sit and come back when he is 100% rather than play hurt , I think that is legit rationale…and also helps with the conditional 3rd.


Great game. The fact that this team has been able to stay this competitive with so many injuries tells us that this team is a different story than past years. Loved watching Conner come back to dominate but can’t help but be impressed with Nuge.


Going to be hard to trade Russell if he is injured every time we can trade him




Would you deal Khaira + 3rd for Ennis?

$1.2M out for $800K in.


I don’t think they need to add a 3rd.


Small hitch, they also don’t have a 3rd.

fries n gravy

Excellent: Green lets Bouchard complete his AHL season without further distraction.


I see the Green trade as Holland going Holy crap I have a lot of rookie D playing and I dont have a ppqb for a while so I’ll just take this really cheap one I’m familiar with


This is my thinking too. The trade was so cheap I find it tough to see any downside, but plenty of upside if they want to make some noise in the playoffs.

I’m not a huge Green fan, but cautiously optimistic with respect to what Bulging Twine posted upthread.


That, and Holy crap I have a lot of rookie D playing and I have two of my more vet d men injured with the playoffs less than two months away so I’ll just take this really cheap one I’m familiar with

Honestly? Little risk, decent reward. Not the big game hunting I know everyone wanted to see, but day ain’t over…


Sounds like Russell is indeed on LTIR which makes a bit more sense and creates some cap room and saves the smith bonuses from being a penalty next year, I believe.

Woodguy v2.0


Woodguy v2.0


Woodguy v2.0


There, I said it.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Is it not Pennis?

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville

This is funny because every time I see Ennis’ name I think how fortunate it is that his first name never started with a “P”…

P. Ennis over T. Ennis in grade school could be life altering. ???

Brantford Boy

How about Martin Frk from LA… I’d like to buy a vowel…

Bulging Twine

Maybe we should grab a Haas upgrade for cheap


Sounds like Russell is indeed on LTIR which makes a bit more sense and creates some cap room and saves the smith bonuses from being a penalty next year, I believe.

Avoiding this year’s bonuses going into the Cap next year would be “very good”

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Larsson or Benning+ for Kapanen. Do it Holland. Do it now!


And then grab Vesey from Buffalo for Khaira/Chiasson, giving the Oilers an All-New 1st line.


my 2 targets are


would be happy with either …

Wonder Llama

Respect for quoting Gang of Four!

“Entertainment!” from 1979 is a brilliant album, one of the most underrated in rock n roll history.

Stephen Sheps, my fellow sociologist, will back me up on this I’m sure.

stephen sheps

agreed wholeheartedly!

amazing record and huge respect for Andy Gill, both lyrically and musically. Pitchfork put out a wonderful article about his passing and his politics that I am likely going to use in my sociology of pop culture class later this year


If Benning’s appeal is stronger to the analytical types than to the old school types, and if one of those analytical types is running an underperforming team up against cap constraints, doesn’t that increase Benning’s trade value?

Woodguy v2.0



Shremp watch:

7 GP 1 Pt.


Trade for Ennis you cowards.

Bulging Twine

Marleau to Pitt for a 3rd



Bulging Twine

Stauffer hinting at a FW with speed

who’s that?
Ennis is more quick than fast I think

Bulging Twine





Duclair? Vesey? Sheary?

Bulging Twine

When is Buffalo entering the picture

That GM is under a ton of pressure

Bulging Twine

Probably evaluating if he wants to trade all those UFA’s for 4th round picks


Doubt Kenny trades any D at this deadline. Oilers have been wandering in the desert for too long to move any useful pieces for a draft pick.

Play is to make the playoffs, win the cup 🙂 and maximize the value of Benning, Larsson and Rusty at the draft



Good point. Right now draft picks have a low value. Weight until their value is much higher to sell.

Woodguy v2.0

Bulging Twine:

Where did you get that Berkshire quote on Green?

I’d like to see it.

Great find, thank you.


Kreider staying put 7 years
Probably price increase for whoever is left


Shesterkin and Buchnevich injured in a car accident apparently. Not seriously, but they’ll miss time.


And, of course, they’re off the trade market.


Buchnevich shaken up but on ice for today’s practice.

Shesterkin non-displaced rib fracture. Out for a few weeks… looks like Lundquist gets a few more backup starts to end the year. (reported live on TSN tradecentre)


There is no way we can go into the playoffs with no wing help on the McDavid line. If the Oil could get even one decent winger, we’ll have two very difficult lines to deal with going into the playoffs. Include how well Sheahan’s line is doing and it could be argued we have three very effective lines.

McDavid needs something other than boat-anchors on his wings.

fries n gravy

WC standings at 65 games (1 point added per unplayed game):

84 Blues
83 Avs
81 Stars
77 Vegas
76 Oilers
76 Sedins
72 (*spits*)
72 Preds

70 Coyotes
70 Jets
69 Wild
65 Chicago

$5 says John Chayka’s digestion is compromised.

Bulging Twine

Is Commodore legit?

cuz he’s saying Hoffman to Oilers

Younger Oil

He just takes shots in the dark, definitely not an insider, probably 5-10% of what he says comes true.

Woodguy v2.0

Sometimes he hits. Always fun to follow on twitter. He’s hilarious.


Are you kidding? He’s the #Insiderrr


Flyers acquire Grant. No big deal but I thought he could be on the Oilers radar as a very depth type acquisition. WIth that said, don’t really need a 12th/13th forward type guy.


And his woodmoney’s are terrible.

Bulging Twine

Woodguy v2.0:
Bulging Twine:

Where did you get that Berkshire quote on Green?

I’d like to see it.

Great find, thank you.

Here you go

Woodguy v2.0


Woodguy v2.0

Mike Commodore

Mike Hoffman…..Florida doesn’t want you anymore…#PackYourShit, grab your passport and make your way to Edmonton.

Commodore doesn’t bat over .500, but he does hit the ball from time to time…….


Never trust a commie.

Woodguy v2.0

So don’t vote for Bernie?

Wonder Llama

See the world through your Polaroid glasses
Things all look a whole lot better for the working classes


He also had Ennis packing his shit for Edmonton a couple of days ago. I think he’s got a legit source, there’s just a lot that flies around and he tweets it all. Good targets for Edmonton, at least.

Bulging Twine


Looks like he’s off to CBJ
rest easy

Brantford Boy

Ugh… crap night sleep, woke up super groggy reading LT’s game lines… I got to McDavid’s line and was like “he centered both the 1st and 2nd lines”, wtf?… then I was like oh yeah, we actually have another line now… its been said a bunch, but thank you Yamamoto, you have been a marvel to watch, bring your boots to work every night.

Agreed it was Bear’s finest game last night, and Jones wasn’t far behind… depth, it’s a thing. Now we have even more with Green, although I was high on signing him like 5 years ago.

I really like Tippet’s decision to play Benson with Sheahan and Archibald. We don’t know about Benson for certain in the top 6 and his line mates are showing him how to play the game the right way, with dogged determination, and LT nailed it, he’s gaining confidence and getting more comfortable in his role.

And let’s not forget Patrick Russel, that guy is giving his all every shift, somethings gotta give for his hard work efforts, so fun to watch. So many AHL players making major contributions to this teams success it’s literally crazy.


Yeah not a big AA fan. Glad we didn’t grab him.

Woodguy v2.0

Mike Commodore
Andreas Athanasiou….you are putting on an absolute strip show this year (#GreenJacket Leader heading into Final Round) but Detroit doesn’t want you anymore….#PackYourShit and take it down the road to Columbus.

This just got confirmed and Commie had it an hour ago.


Always trust a commie.

Bulging Twine




Bulging Twine

Brantford Boy:

And let’s not forget Patrick Russel, that guy is giving his all every shift, somethings gotta give for his hard work efforts, so fun to watch.So many AHL players making major contributions to this teams success it’s literally crazy.

PRussell definitely makes safe plays too


Bulging Twine:
Is Commodore legit?

cuz he’s saying Hoffman to Oilers

He is usually right on 1/15 .he even admits that himself … He also said Drouin to Avs last night …

Hope he is right this time !


Going to be hard to trade Russell if he is injured every time we can trade him

I don’t think there was much of a market to trade him at this time in any event.

Wonder Llama

Do we like Hoffman?

Are the fancies as nice as the boxcars?

Bulging Twine

Woodguy v2.0:

Mike Commodore
Andreas Athanasiou….you are putting on an absolute strip show this year (#GreenJacket Leader heading into Final Round) but Detroit doesn’t want you anymore….#PackYourShit and take it down the road to Columbus.

This just got confirmed and Commie had it an hour ago.

Let’s see how he does today:

Here are his other calls:

Lehner to Carolina

Barrie to VGK

Thornton to BOS

He had Thompson going to NYI – but he went to PHI

Drouin to COL

Sonny Milano to ANA

Yeah, there’s no way he’d have that many. More than the big “insiders”

Let’s see

Woodguy v2.0

I’ll get he gets 2 of those right, including AA, so one more.


Would you deal Khaira + 3rd for Ennis?

$1.2M out for $800K in.

They don’t have a third to trade in 2020 or 2021 – they have both been conditionally traded.