2019-20 Game 67: Oilers at Stars

I mentioned in the thread last night during the second intermission the game reminded me of an April 1975 game between the Buffalo Sabres and the Montreal Canadiens. The Oilers and Preds were scoring goals at a rapid clip through two, and you felt something special might be in the air. As it turned out, the Glimmer Twins put it all to bed in the third on a can you hear me knocking Monday night in music city.

Leon Draisaitl’s new move works, so expect goals that look like it come off the production line in the days to come. He takes the puck on his backhand and then shoots it forehand with very little movement (a little hip shuffle, more Conway Twitty than Elvis Presley). Damndest thing. Goalie can’t see the wrinkle, puck is by him in a heartbeat. Leon is having a year.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: How the Oilers deadline deals might alter summer plans
  • New Jonathan Willis: Splitting Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl saved the Oilers’ season
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2017 draft and the value of waiting five years
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ AHL factory has produced three NHL defencemen, with more on the way
  • Jonathan Willis: Andreas Athanasiou injured, Mike Green elevated in Oilers’ loss to Vegas
  • Lowetide: Andreas Athanasiou acquisition might give the Oilers a scoring winger for McDavid cluster.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers salvage a point as newcomers settle in (and produce) with Connor McDavid
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Are Oilers poised for a long playoff run after Ken Holland’s deadline moves?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers trade deadline active, targeted and predictable
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Andreas Athanasiou acquisition the most intriguing deadline move for Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Shrewd addition of Tyler Ennis gives the Oilers insurance, options up front
  • Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid returns to the Oilers; now the task is to get him linemates
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers bolster blue line by acquiring Mike Green; Is a scoring winger next?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ European prospects offer interesting options for the future
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
  • Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer

OILERS AFTER 67 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 25-35-7, 57 points; goal differential -31
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 35-23-9, 79 points; goal differential +11
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 29-34-4, 62 points; goal differential -37
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 30-30-7, 67 points; goal differential -20
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 35-23-8, 78 points; goal differential +6

A big win last night and once again this year’s model gets within a hair of the 2016-17 team. What’s more, the lopsided result gives the goal differential a nicer look. The three bad teams look stark in this light.

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
  • Current 10 games: 3-2-1

OILERS IN MARCH

  • Oilers in March 2016: 2-0-0, four points; goal differential +5
  • Oilers in March 2017: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in March 2018: 0-2-0, zero points; goal differential -3
  • Oilers in March 2019: 2-0-0, two points; goal differential +5
  • Oilers in March 2020: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +5

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

  • On the road to: NAS, DAL, CHI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: CBJ, WPG, VEG, NYI (Expected 2-2-0)
  • On the road to: PHI, WAS, OTT (Expected 1-1-1)
  • At home to: TBY, ANA, COL, SJS, ANA, VEG (Expected: 3-2-1)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-3, 17 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 1-0-0, 2 points in one game

Great start to the second last road trip of note this season and it sets up the rest of the trip very well. Dallas is a tough spot for the Oilers, although the club won in Texas in December.

OILERS 2019-20

Draisaitl and McDavid floored it last night and the morning boxcars are spectacular. Also impressive are Nuge’s totals, and Nurse spiked last night too. Seven forwards with 10+ goals. All numbers five on five unless noted and via NST.

LINE 1 Nuge-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 12:49, going 14-12 Corsi, 8-5 shots, 3-0 goals and 6-0 HDSC. All three goals against Josi-Ellis.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had three assists, one HDSC and one shot, two takeaways. His pass on the Yamamoto goal was terrific. Leon Draisaitl went off, scoring 3-1-4 (plus a PP goal) with six shots, two HDSC, one takeaway and won three of 11 faceoffs. Kailer Yamamoto scored a goal, an assist, had two shots, three HDSC. His assist was pretty cheeky, but on a night where everything rhymed it fit like a glove.

LINE 2 Tyler Ellis-Connor McDavid-Josh Archibald played 12:39, going 6-15 Corsi, 4-7 shots, 2-1 goals and 2-3 HDSC. Played mostly against Ekholm-Tinordi, and Tinordi made 97 mad in the minutes before the goals started going in with greater frequency. Coincidence? I think not.

Tyler Ennis had an assist, two shots, HDSC and a penalty. Connor McDavid had an outstanding night going 1-3-4 plus a PP assist. Had a shot on goal, won six of nine. Josh Archibald scored an early goal, had an assist plus HDSC. I don’t think this line will exist for a long time.

LINE 3 Andreas Athanasiou-Riley Sheahan-Zack Kassian played 10:57, going 9-12 Corsi, 8-6 shots, 0-1 goals and 4-2 HDSC.

Andreas Athanasiou had three shots, a HDSC, and a bad decision that led directly to the second Nashville goal. When AA reached the puck in the corner on that play, he was all alone. Needs to make quicker and better decisions. He also sent a lovely pass to Nurse for a sure goal but the rushing defenseman could not corral the puck. Riley Sheahan had two shots, two HDSC, giveaway, takeaway, and won six of 11 in the faceoff circle. Weak backhand attempt to get the puck back to Benning led to turnover that set the stage for the first goal against. Zack Kassian scored a goal, three shots, two HDSC, GV, TK.

LINE 4 Jujhar Khaira-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 10:10, going 10-5 Corsi, 5-0 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira had one shot, one HDSC, and drew a penalty. He seems to be coming out of this slump he’s in. Gaetan Haas had one shot and won three of ten in the dot. Alex Chiasson had one shot. Although the line didn’t get a lot done offensively, the puck was headed in a good direction.

We’re just a few days now from being able to include out Arizona. The Coyotes have 15 games left, trail Edmonton by six points (massive in the time of Bettman) and the Oilers have a game in hand. If the gap holds for another five games (meaning six points behind with 10 to play) hopes of catching the northern town will be dashed in the desert.

PAIRING ONE Caleb Jones and Adam Larsson played 20:22, going 23-14 Corsi, 13-9 shots, 2-0 goals and 8-2 HDSC. Pairing spent 9:37 with Draisaitl and 5:25 with McDavid, and it was good.

Caleb Jones played a strong game despite two giveaways. He’s mobile, smart, a great passer and increasingly confident with his own decisions. He’s an impressive rookie, third this year. Adam Larsson is enjoying a resurgence of late, played last night mostly against Turris and Johansen lines. Three shots, two giveaways, played mostly in clean air all night long. He’s a hammer.

PAIRING TWO Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 19:09, going 13-24 Corsi, 10-11 shots, 4-2 goals (!!!), 4-4 HDSC. It was a high event night for the duo.

Darnell Nurse had two assists, two shots, a giveaway, skated miles. I got into it a little online with a tweeter who thought Nurse was to blame for the second goal against, but unless he can read Athanasiou’s mind that’s on 28. Bonino was left alone on the third goal, but to my eye that was not Nurse’s mark as much as his partner’s man. Ethan Bear had an assist, shot and took a penalty. He is a wonderful player, looks like he’s maybe hitting a wall recently. Long season.

PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 7:46, going 7-11 Corsi, 5-4 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-0 HDSC.

Kris Russell had two shots, along with a giveaway and a takeaway. The possession was markedly improved from Saturday, but Russell got nicked up later in the game and we’ll have to see about tonight. Matt Benning had one shot on goal, moved the puck well and played his usual calm game.

GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 27 of 30, .900. I thought he was unready on the first goal but the other two were not his fault. Your mileage may vary.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning starts at 10, TSN1260. We’ll review last night’s game with Jonathan Willis from The Athletic at 10:20. Sean Shapiro from The Athletic Dallas will chime in on the Stars recent performances. Andrew Peard from the Oil Kings broadcasts will pop in to talk about a team streaking toward the playoffs with all pistons pumping. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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678 Responses to "2019-20 Game 67: Oilers at Stars"

« Older Comments
  1. godot10 says:

    jm363561: Why Chiasson was out there 4 on 3 is a mystery. Another bit of Tipp magic.

    Regular power play less Nurse. Khudobin is a small goalie. Chiasson was sent out to be a net front presence. In OT, Tippett was going for the goal and the point so 4 forwards.

    Normal 4 on 3 has been Klefbom with the McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, and Draisaitl.

  2. jp says:

    Lucinius: Thanks.

    And yes, fantastic ending. Now to make tonight perfect? Vegas losing in regulation and (more importantly, imo) the Sharks stomping on the Leafs.

    Really liking RNH’s game these days. 2020 is looking like the first time he’s been healthy and on a good line in years with how well he is playing — smooth as he looked in his first year.

    We’ll have to wait on Vegas and the Leafs.

    And Nuge, yeah. He’s looking like a man. Who was also a 1st overall. NBD.

  3. Durag says:

    godot10: Regular power play less Nurse.Khudobin is a small goalie. Chiasson was sent out to be a net front presence.In OT, Tippett was going for the goal and the point so 4 forwards.

    Normal 4 on 3 has been Klefbom with the McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, and Draisaitl.

    Makes sense to have a right handed one-timer option out there on 4v3 too

  4. Younger Oil says:

    Something that has gone really under the radar in light of our success is that we haven’t gotten a single even strength goal from a player not on a line with Draisaitl or McDavid in the past 8 games.

  5. TeeVee says:

    I swore at the TV when I saw Chiasson out there for the 4 on 3.

  6. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Next home stretch in 2 of 4 games: vs Vegas and NYI: those teams are on 2nd of B2B’s vs Calgary the night before

  7. geowal says:

    Debrusk also said they had the 5th softest schedule in terms of competition, for what that’s worth. Those games in hand are inevitably going to translate into a more condensed schedule.

  8. Reja says:

    Big reason for the first goal was Chase making Anton give him push and then Anton wasn’t a 100 percent set for the shot. Chase has done a excellent job of parking himself and interfering with the goaltenders just enough on the PP to allow Leon, Connor and Nuge to do their magic. Also nice shot on the winner has to be a huge confidence builder to score a big OT goal.

  9. Calmerthanyouare says:

    Agreed, Tippet’s lineup management is just so good.

  10. Side says:

    Younger Oil:
    Something that has gone really under the radar in light of our success is that we haven’t gotten a single even strength goal from a player not on a line with Draisaitl or McDavid in the past 8 games.

    The first 2 lines are ‘scoring’ lines and 3 and 4 are the ‘don’t get scored on’ lines.

  11. Wolfpack says:

    Wonderful performance by Mikko. Absolutely masterful. I can’t count the number of times I have watched the Oilers end up on the wrong side of that game with Turko or Belfour closing the door on us. It is opposite world… in such a great way.

    The NHL has to do something about the officiating. It is embarrassing. Those guys tonight did not deserve to get paid for that mess.

  12. Bulging Twine says:

    AA and Larson got penalized for Ennis high sticking Benn

  13. wolf8888 says:

    This was not just luck. Outstanding goaltending was a major factor IMO.

  14. jp says:

    theDjdj: Which numbers though? Surely not the PP its 1st in the league this year.

    Oilers 5on4 goals for per 60 in 2018-19:
    Klefbom 156min 8.06GF/60
    Nurse — 147min 8.99GF/60

    Nurse was a little better here.

    Oilers 5on4 goals for per 60 in 2019-20:
    Klefbom 214min 12.06GF/60
    Nurse —- 71min 6.72GF/60

    Klefbom is far better with the league’s best PP this year.

    2018-19 and 2019-20 combined:
    Klefbom 370min 10.37GF/60
    Nurse — 218min 8.25GF/60

    Klefbom has a strong (2+ GF/60) advantage over the last 2 seasons.

    But who was playing PP1 vs PP2? To be fair what happened when Klefbom/Nurse were on ice with both of McDavid and Draisaitl?

    2018-19 + 2019-20:
    McDavid/Draisaitl/Klefbom 326min 10.86GF/60
    McDavid/Draisaitl/Nurse — 139min 11.65GF/60

    So Klefbom’s gotten far more PP1 time, and done very well with it. Nurse has gotten ~2/3 PP1, but also quite a bit of PP2. If you isolate true PP1, with both McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice suddenly Nurse looks like a worthwhile presence on the PP.

    I dunno.

  15. wolf8888 says:

    Good thing they are on different lines now

  16. New Improved Darkness says:

    Right, the other ten minutes of the game, of which 4 minutes are PK.

  17. wolf8888 says:

    Are there any stats for Bear on PP1 yet?

  18. OriginalPouzar says:

    VEG is up 2-0 early in the 3rd so they likely take back 1st place but the Oilers will have a game in hand and will be in first if/when they win that.

    Oilers are only 2 points behind the Stars now – Stars have a game in hand but the Oilers have the tie-break with 4, yes, 4 more regulation wins.

  19. Halfwise says:

    You do know. There isn’t much to choose between them. And that’s good.

    Depth and choices beat no depth and no choices.

  20. hunter1909 says:

    Coincidence or not Chiasson looks like Lee Harvey Oswald.

  21. Pretendergast says:

    Shout out to Nurse playing almost 31 minutes. On a night where everyone was getting fed, he was valiant in the effort. Lighting a candle for Klef and the boys getting a good nap as we speak.

    AA needs a practice and a dark room convo with Tip. No time for practice but get that boy in line right quick.

  22. BONE207 says:

    Well he did spend 4 in box. Doesn’t that count?

  23. Bank Shot says:

    jp: Oilers 5on4 goals for per 60 in 2018-19:
    Klefbom 156min 8.06GF/60
    Nurse — 147min 8.99GF/60

    Nurse was a little better here.

    Oilers 5on4 goals for per 60 in 2019-20:
    Klefbom 214min 12.06GF/60
    Nurse —- 71min 6.72GF/60

    Klefbom is far better with the league’s best PP this year.

    2018-19 and 2019-20 combined:
    Klefbom 370min 10.37GF/60
    Nurse — 218min 8.25GF/60

    Klefbom has a strong (2+ GF/60) advantage over the last 2 seasons.

    But who was playing PP1 vs PP2? To be fair what happened when Klefbom/Nurse were on ice with both of McDavid and Draisaitl?

    2018-19 + 2019-20:
    McDavid/Draisaitl/Klefbom 326min 10.86GF/60
    McDavid/Draisaitl/Nurse — 139min 11.65GF/60

    So Klefbom’s gotten far more PP1 time, and done very well with it. Nurse has gotten ~2/3 PP1, but also quite a bit of PP2. If you isolate true PP1, with both McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice suddenly Nurse looks like a worthwhile presence on the PP.

    I dunno.

    They are both pretty porridge as far as PP defencemen go. Neither of them have any offensive creativity.

  24. BONE207 says:

    My prediction was to provide a goal for the team. Think sacrifice. You are all welcome. Take it like a round of drinks…

  25. N64 says:

    Calmerthanyouare:
    That’s got to be a real confidence boost for Mikko tonight with all the Smith is the #1 talk lately, he stole one tonight.

    I’m wondering if Smith is a notch better than Koski or if Koski is a notch better than Smith I’d ask HH but he’s just awful at measuring notches

  26. Munny says:

    He’s waaay better at nachos.

  27. jp says:

    All of this is true.

  28. jp says:

    That’s one take, and it may well be true.

    The flip side is that neither has cratered the best PP in the past 30 odd years.

    So how greedy do we need to be?

  29. N64 says:

    Nachos and Cheezy

  30. jp says:

    His overall PP numbers this year are mediocre (51min, 5.87GF/60).

    In terms of PP1, not much sample.
    He’s played not quite 17 minutes with McDavid/Draisaitl and they’ve scored 3 times (10.74GF/60).

    Too soon to say much of anything I’d say.

  31. Pescador says:

    It’s that Millennial haircut he’s rockin.
    If anyone knows Chaisson let him know that I’ll cut it for free

  32. Pescador says:

    wolf8888:
    Are there any stats for Bear on PP1 yet?

    The stats say he’s already playing too many minutes as it is.
    The stats also told me there is plenty of time in his career left & we should revisit this next season

  33. Pescador says:

    hunter1909:
    Hunter1909 2020 Death March™ Update:

    Go To:

    http://www.oilersdeathmarch.com

    To see who has just been shot and who remains standing in the 2020 contest.

    I prefer when Mr Nitpicker posts them in threads after the game,
    Saves me trouble
    #lazyass
    is trending on Twitter

  34. RonnieB says:

    Faustkarz:

    Faustkarz says:

    March 3, 2020 at 9:10 pm

    Might be out to lunch or for a few brews but, is it relatively uncommon for a playoff team to not have a SO before season ends? I don’t think they relatively have much value and may be highly over emphasized in Vezina voting but it seems like an odd stat nonetheless for us in 82 games to not have one (we are only 67 games in mind you)

    (

    Actually, the Oilers are 2-2 in shootouts this year.

  35. DaVinci says:

    Thanks JP. I didn’t think there was much PP1 yet but wasn’t sure

  36. Bank Shot says:

    jp:
    That’s one take, and it may well be true.

    The flip side is that neither has cratered the best PP in the past 30 odd years.

    So how greedy do we need to be?

    Greedy enough to be Stanley calibre. I think an offensively gifted D-man will boost ES scoring numbers for McD and Drai. Can’t really make a good argument that the PP could be better. A guy that is above average offensively would be putting up 50-60+ points here IMO.

    Hopefully Bouchard can be that guy. He appears to have better offensive tools than what they are currently using.

  37. Calmerthanyouare says:

    It’s a nice problem to have trying to figure out which goalie is better rather than overworking either, which has looked like a problem for both in the past.

  38. Munny says:

    Shutouts, I believe he means.

  39. Munny says:

    Dude… muh line.

  40. Munny says:

    Bank Shot,

    The 4th best powerplay in The History of the League (and could still end the season as GOAT) isn’t Stanley calibre?

    The special teams are easily Stanley calibre and are the envy of the League.

    It’s the five by five that has questions… although the addition of Yams and the Deadline deals and some good health are trending even strength in the right direction. Can probably throw goaltending into that same box of questions, yet Smith’s 1 regulation loss in 2020 looks mighty good right now too.

  41. defmn says:

    With the win tonight the Oilers move one point ahead of their record in the 2016-17 season at 80 to 79.

    Who saw that coming back in September when training camp was getting underway.

  42. Munny says:

    Not many, but a few optimistic souls:

    https://oilersdeathmarch.com/

  43. defmn says:

    Munny:
    Not many, but a few optimistic souls:

    https://oilersdeathmarch.com/

    The most points of any of the Canadian teams in the month of March.

  44. Leroy Draisdale says:

    Thats the karma he gets for picking on the frontrunner for the Hart all night!

  45. Ribs says:

    Bulging Twine:
    Not too crazy about them starting the puck and player tracking in the playoffs, would rather next regular season

    There is enough excitement and anticipation and talking points then to have this huge new thing to decipher and tackle and get in on

    The playoffs are magic.Don’t need a new huge thing starting then.

    Agreed. Bad timing for something as new as this. Check out this TSN article … https://www.tsn.ca/nhl-s-new-puck-will-premiere-on-opening-night-of-playoffs-1.1452122

    The NHL put the pucks in the hands of top players around the league to use in practice. While there were no complaints, sources indicated was quick to notice that, for example, the edges of the puck felt different. There have also been comments about the weight and feel (hardness) of the puck from players.

    Today’s players will be able to pick up on even a hint of a difference, just in the same way that players in the 1990s were able to correctly identify the pucks used for the old FoxTrax system in a blind test.

    So the players have already indicated that it doesn’t act or feel like a normal puck. That is alarming.

    The new puck has quietly been tested in nine NHL games in nine different buildings since Feb. 6. Testing will continue in 11 more contests up until March 28, including a March 19 game in Toronto that is planned to “showcase” the latest technology.

    I am now left wondering, which games? I think my biggest fear is them screwing it up and tossing the idea altogether. I want the stats.

    I am envisioning our television screens being covered in cringeworthy overlays for every replay in these playoffs. I hope they can keep it a bit low key and save it for post game analysis or interesting things to bring up before the next game.

  46. Munny says:

    defmn,

    I’m not entirely sure what you are referring to (this season? 16-17?), but that 16-17 team lit it up from here. Despite being ahead of them at this point in the season, I don’t see this team finishing out as gloriously as that one did.

  47. Munny says:

    Ribs,

    The one advantage of doing it in the post-season with a full rollout next season is that it gives teams and their data people a summer to figure out how to compile the data and figure out what it is telling them. At the Columbus Conference, the feeling was that it would take 5 years to fully get their heads around all the data (although they were all tremendously excited at what was coming)

  48. defmn says:

    Munny:
    defmn,

    I’m not entirely sure what you are referring to (this season? 16-17?), but that 16-17 team lit it up from here.Despite being ahead of them at this point in the season, I don’t see this team finishing out as gloriously as that one did.

    Just noting from the post today:

    Oilers in 2015-16: 25-35-7, 57 points; goal differential -31
    Oilers in 2016-17: 35-23-9, 79 points; goal differential +11
    Oilers in 2017-18: 29-34-4, 62 points; goal differential -37
    Oilers in 2018-19: 30-30-7, 67 points; goal differential -20
    Oilers in 2019-20: 35-23-8, 78 points; goal differential +6

    that with the win tonight the team is now 1 point ahead of the pace set by the 2016-17 team.

    My pre-season prediction of 90 points looks a little off at this point so I am just enjoying watching these guys exceed expectations.

  49. Munny says:

    That 16-17 team finished with a +35 goal differential, better than even the Ducks IIRC… if they were +11 on Mar 3 that’s a helluva month.

    Edit:

    And you were more optimistic than my prediction, but I subtracted 8-10 points after being far too optimistic the two seasons prior.

    I liked the revamp of the bottom 6 last summer, but with so many unknowns on the team, from GM to coach to players, this was a damn hard year to predict. Anyone who says they “knew” is lying lol.

  50. defmn says:

    Munny:

    I liked the revamp of the bottom 6 last summer, but with so many unknowns on the team, from GM to coach to players, this was a damn hard year to predict.Anyone who says they “knew” is lying lol.

    That is what I was trying to say with my initial post. Some guys went high with their predictions but I don’t think anybody could reasonably expect how this season has gone.

  51. BONE207 says:

    Talk about small sample sizes.

  52. Munny says:

    Agreed.

  53. Munny says:

    lol!

  54. BONE207 says:

    jp:
    That’s one take, and it may well be true.

    The flip side is that neither has cratered the best PP in the past 30 odd years.

    So how greedy do we need to be?

    With 2 of the best players in the world doing their thing as it stands, can anyone imagine adding 20-30 more points to the totals by using capable PP quarterbacks ? This isn’t about greed. It’s about the re-creation of the 80’s Oiler monster that the Nhl felt it needed to subdue. If the refs are going to continue the ticky tack calls, take advantage…fuck ’em all I say.

  55. Munny says:

    BONE207,

    The 80s Oiler monster did not have a powerplay as good as this team.

  56. Munny says:

    BONE207,

    The Habs and Islander teams of 75-76 and 76-77 are the only teams better. (Habs 76-77, Isles 75-76 & 76-77).

    No team, since goaltending equipment has changed, has been over 26 percent, IIRC. Certainly no team in the 2000s. This Oiler team is over 29 percent and within striking distance of those famed Isles and Hab teams (who also had the rule advantage you imply in your post).

  57. Munny says:

    Munny: Certainly no team in the 2000s.

    Ackk, I’m wrong on this. while it was true for a long time it has changed in the last few years, likely with the perfection of the diamond, is my speculation.

    For eg, TBL finished last season at 28.2%.

    With Victor Hedman running the blue line though (not to mention Stammer and Kooch), they were still poorer than the present day Oilers.

  58. Munny says:

    The way to improve this team is to improve its play at Even Strength.

    As JP’s numbers above show, swapping PP QBs while one is out for 2 weeks has minimal effect. Good chance we would have seen more Green there anyhoo, if he hadn’t been injured.

    And a true natural PP QB is coming in Bouch. Patience, my friends.

    Could Bear be there? Maybe. But the player is always more important than a few games. Especially when they’re as young and as good as Ethan. Imma gonna trust Tipps on this one.

  59. Zelepukin says:

    And even then, I don’t think a ‘natural PP QB’ is needed for what makes our PP so good. Our strategy is totally different than the traditional booming D shot or 2-2-1 strong side one-timer.

    We really just need the 1 D to be an excellent, patient passer. Nurse is not a great passer, but he doesn’t have to do much on the PP either. Klef gets the job done, occasionally decides to through the puck at the net which seems more like a gamble/decoy play and almost never works. Bear I do think could be a slight improvement on Klef because of his passing, otherwise there is no need to overthink the PP D. Zone entries are sorted, Net presence we have options for with Neal and Chiasson, Drai has the one-timer and McD, Nuge and Drai are creative passing wizards.

    Our collapsing strategy down-low reduces a lot of big one-timer shots that can easily leave the zone. This allows us to retrieve more pucks in the corners when a net drive attempt fails.

  60. jp says:

    Bank Shot: Greedy enough to be Stanley calibre. I think an offensively gifted D-man will boost ES scoring numbers for McD and Drai. Can’t really make a good argument that the PP could be better. A guy that is above average offensively would be putting up 50-60+ points here IMO.

    Hopefully Bouchard can be that guy. He appears to have better offensive tools than what they are currently using.

    That’s fair. More offensively gifted D WOULD help. And we SHOULD be greedy. And yeah, maybe Bouchard is an answer.

  61. ArmchairGM says:

    OilClog: The Condors have watched multiple players graduate to the bigs, as a development team in a development league its probably fairly save to assume the condors are more then thrilled with their success as a franchise.

    The Oilers did have Bouchard Park in the press box for a few games, getting a taste, cheque, and the carrot.

    Meanwhile Bingbong Rumplebutt gets no such treats, no procheque, just the sweet tones of Uticas playoffs atmosphere. Imagine the fella would trade a week of Utica for a Vancouver pressbox and sample, but eh keep on the path.

    Is there a slide at Bouchard Park?

  62. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    To the guy somewhere in the thread above, who cast the spell “Chiasson will never score again”, my thanks.That is exactly how you do it.

    #reversehex

    You and OP both opined that Chiasson should sit this one out. Glad it worked out otherwise.

  63. frjohnk says:

    godot10: That is not true if you look at what all the comparable centres from 2005-2017 were over the 8 years after the expiry of the ELC’s.

    Draisaitl’s contract is right around the midpoint as a percentage of the cap.

    I never really looked at the comparables and the contracts from the last CBA. Here are some of the comparables. This would be 2nd contract signed

    PLAYER Cap Hit%
    Bäckström, Nicklas 11.28% 10 year, just coming off 101 point season
    Kopitar, Anze 11.99% 7 year, just coming off 77 point season
    Seguin, Tyler 9.58% 6 year, just coming off 67 point season
    Tavares, John 8.55% 6 year, just coming off 67 point season
    Stamkos, Steven 11.66% 7 year, just coming off 91 point season
    Stastny, Paul 11.64% 5 year, just coming off 71 point season
    Toews, Jonathan 11.09% 5 year, just coming off 67 point season
    Kane, Patrick 11.09% 5 year, just coming off 69 point season
    Bergeron, Patrice 10.80% 5 year, just coming off 73 point season
    Getzlaf, Ryan, 10.5%, 5 year, just coming off 58 point season

    I didnt inlcude Crosby, Malkin ( coming off 103 point season) or Richards 12 year contract.

    So Drai coming off a 77 point season with 11.3% is about midpoint creeping into upper end when looking at comparables from last CBA.

    These are the comparables when looking at the recent CBA
    Johansen, Ryan 10.67% 3rd contract
    Kuznetsov, Evgeny 10.40% 3rd contract
    Tarasenko, Vladimir 10.27%
    Duchene, Matt 9.33% 3rd contract
    Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan 9.33%
    Gaudreau, Johnny 9.25%
    Monahan, Sean 8.73%
    Landeskog, Gabriel 8.66%
    MacKinnon, Nathan 8.63%
    Scheifele, Mark 8.39%
    Saad, Brandon 8.22%
    Forsberg, Filip 8.22%
    Barkov, Aleksander 8.08%
    Huberdeau, Jonathan 8.08%

    You will notice that 2nd contracts were getting less % of the cap in this CBA compared to the last one.

    I included 3 of the 3rd contracts just cuz. Now at the time of his signing, I think Drai was probably the best, or at least one of the best so a bump up in pay was justified.

    And as I said before, I dont think he was overpaid, but that he was being paid more than his comparables. Thats all.

    Today the Drai contract is value.

  64. ArmchairGM says:

    Most points of any Canadian team in the entire season. Is that a large enough sample size for you?

  65. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    BONE207,

    The Habs and Islander teams of 75-76 and 76-77 are the only teams better. (Habs 76-77, Isles 75-76 & 76-77).

    No team, since goaltending equipment has changed, has been over 26 percent, IIRC.Certainly no team in the 2000s.This Oiler team is over 29 percent and within striking distance of those famed Isles and Hab teams (who also had the rule advantage you imply in your post).

    The 77-78 Canadiens were 31.9%, while the Islanders were 31.4% the same year. The following year, 78-79, the Islanders posted a 31.1% efficiency rate. No other teams have broken the 30% mark since the NHL started publishing PP rates in 77-78. The Oilers are currently at 29.9%,

  66. Soup Fascist says:

    Leroy Draisdale:
    Thats the karma he gets for picking on the frontrunner for the Hart all night!

    Didn’t really notice Nichushkin out there. 😉

  67. N64 says:

    Bone’s still processing his recent departure from the living.

  68. N64 says:

    Now that we’ve left he who must not be named at King’s Cross Station we’re on to more mundane llosers (yes I see one at 80).. So no soup for you.

    I’ll probably chime in if Hunter forgets to eliminate the first optimists to die.

  69. N64 says:

    Calmerthanyouare: It’s a nice problem to have trying to figure out which goalie is better

    Not a problem for Team Notched.

  70. N64 says:

    ~ So they weren’t RIGHT. They OVERPAID ~

  71. wolf8888 says:

    What stats are those?

  72. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    Faustkarz:
    Might be out to lunch or for a few brews but, is it relatively uncommon for a playoff team to not have a SO before season ends? I don’t think they relatively have much value and may be highly over emphasized in Vezina voting but it seems like an odd stat nonetheless for us in 82 games to not have one (we are only 67 games in mind you)

    Oilers shut-out NJD 4-0 on Nov. 8. But yes, that was our only shut-out if you don’t count the 1-0 shootout loss to the Jets

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    BONE207: With 2 of the best players in the world doing their thing as it stands, can anyone imagine adding 20-30 more points to the totals by using capable PP quarterbacks ?This isn’t about greed. It’s about the re-creation of the 80’s Oiler monster that the Nhl felt it needed to subdue. If the refs are going to continue the ticky tack calls, take advantage…fuck ’em all I say.

    I don’t think adding a “great PP QB” would have that effect. The d-man at the point is a puck distributor and needs to be able to make the right decision and Klef has done a great job of that. The PP QB’s are the three forwards, each QBing the PP at time. If the d-man is asked to QB this PP, it will likely make it less efficient. Not saying a “better offensive mind” back there couldn’t help but I don’t think it would make it materially better than it has been this year.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: You and OP both opined that Chiasson should sit this one out. Glad it worked out otherwise.

    I sure did and I still think it was the right call at the time. Nice goal by Chiasson in OT – did everyone see the d-man go away from Chiasson to cover, I believe, Drai, and give Alex a clear path to the net?

    Good on Alex to bury it though and he did draw an earlier PP.

  75. v4ance says:

    OriginalPouzar: I sure did and I still think it was the right call at the time. Nice goal by Chiasson in OT – did everyone see the d-man go away from Chiasson to cover, I believe, Drai, and give Alex a clear path to the net?

    Good on Alex to bury it though and he did draw an earlier PP.

    Actually the puck had bounced into the corner and Johns was just about to clear it. Puck luck was on our side as it kept bouncing right over his blade and that’s when Chaisson swooped in.

  76. v4ance says:

    frjohnk: I never really looked at the comparables and the contracts from the last CBA.Here are some of the comparables.This would be 2nd contract signed

    PLAYERCap Hit%
    Bäckström, Nicklas11.28% 10 year, just coming off 101 point season
    Kopitar, Anze11.99% 7 year, just coming off 77 point season
    Seguin, Tyler9.58% 6 year, just coming off 67 point season
    Tavares, John8.55% 6 year, just coming off 67 point season
    Stamkos, Steven11.66% 7 year, just coming off 91 point season
    Stastny, Paul11.64% 5 year, just coming off 71 point season
    Toews, Jonathan11.09% 5 year, just coming off 67 point season
    Kane, Patrick11.09% 5 year, just coming off 69 point season
    Bergeron, Patrice10.80% 5 year, just coming off 73 point season
    Getzlaf, Ryan, 10.5%, 5 year, just coming off 58 point season

    I didnt inlcude Crosby, Malkin ( coming off 103 point season) or Richards 12 year contract.

    So Drai coming off a 77 point season with 11.3% is about midpoint creeping into upper end when looking at comparables from last CBA.

    These are the comparables when looking at the recent CBA
    Johansen, Ryan10.67% 3rd contract
    Kuznetsov, Evgeny10.40% 3rd contract
    Tarasenko, Vladimir10.27%
    Duchene, Matt9.33% 3rd contract
    Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan9.33%
    Gaudreau, Johnny9.25%
    Monahan, Sean8.73%
    Landeskog, Gabriel8.66%
    MacKinnon, Nathan8.63%
    Scheifele, Mark8.39%
    Saad, Brandon8.22%
    Forsberg, Filip8.22%
    Barkov, Aleksander8.08%
    Huberdeau, Jonathan8.08%

    You will notice that 2nd contracts were getting less % of the cap in this CBA compared to the last one.

    I included 3 of the 3rd contracts just cuz.Now at the time of his signing, I think Drai was probably the best, or at least one of the best so a bump up in pay was justified.

    And as I said before, I dont think he was overpaid, but that he was being paid more than his comparables. Thats all.

    Today the Drai contract is value.

    The time of the signing has always been more relevant than any other factor. I never included 3rd contract signings because then you’re taking about paying for less years of RFA control versus UFA years.

    UFA years are always priced higher since you factor in how much the “free’ market (other teams) would be willing to inflate the price. The RFA years are basically one vendor (player) and one buyer (team) where the buyer has most of the levverage. The leverage the vendor has is strictly limited to refusing to provide services (stitting out)) but since the vendor has a limited shelf life (career years) the buyer can always wait longer than the vendor. The buyer would always point out, all the other vendors are setting for around $6 million for roughly 6 years.

    GMs used this power consistently to hold down the price of the second contract for most high performing players coming out of the ELC. Chiarelli threw that out with one stroke and revanped the salary structure for anyone else singing after Draisaitl. Chai overpaid for Leon and now everyone else has to pay nearly full UFA value for RFA years too when dealing with young stars.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    vance: Actually the puck had bounced into the corner and Johns was just about to clear it.Puck luck was on our side as it kept bouncing right over his blade and that’s when Chaisson swooped in.

    Yes, I know that but after Chiasson got the puck and was taking it to the net, the net-front d-man backed off and went to Drai given Alex a clear path to the net.

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