How did it work out so badly? We tend to separate prospects into ‘success’ or ‘fail’ based on their NHL performance and ability to sustain a level of play that keeps them in the big league. Looking back, understanding injuries, coaching changes and a lack of a designated farm team for part of the decade, it seems incredible the Oilers didn’t get more from their drafted forwards 2000-09. How bad was it? Bad.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, check it out here.
- New Lowetide: 5 AHL forwards who offer the Oilers a chance to buy low on real talent
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Agape’: Why Oilers prospect Cooper Marody wrote a song about Colby Cave
- New Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid’s recovery is just one of 2020’s incredible Masterton stories
- Lowetide: Every prospect in the Oilers system and what’s next for each player
- Lowetide: Oilers minor leaguers over 40 years, and Jay Woodcroft’s current role
- Lowetide: Charting Theodor Lennstrom’s future with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Projecting the Oilers’ black aces and how much they’ll play
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ lineup for their play-in series versus the Blackhawks
- Lowetide: Could the Oilers draft a defenceman in the first round?
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers should extend Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as soon as possible
- Lowetide: Oilers farmhand Josh Currie’s small window of opportunity
- Jonathan Willis: Misguided priorities helped turn the Oilers’ 2010 rebuild into a debacle
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It’s what’s best for the league’: Oilers accept challenge of play-in series
- Lowetide: Oilers greatest areas of need for the 2020 draft
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Six bold (and not so bold) predictions as the Oilers prepare for the Blackhawks
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers facing a bonus penalty for 2020-21 but the news isn’t all bad
- Jonathan Willis: Multiple choice: What might an Oilers trade at the 2020 NHL Draft look like?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers return to play guide: How the NHL’s 24-team format impacts Edmonton
- Lowetide: Mike Green’s playoff role and possible future with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ most likely recalls from Bakersfield for the playoff run
THE KIDS FROM 2000-04
The Oilers received over a decade of hard work from Ales Hemsky, but the rest of this group was either traded too soon (Brodziak, Stoll), succumbed to injury (Pouliot, Jacques) or faded away. Many of these players either fit the style of coach Craig MacTavish or ground their skills in the minors to make themselves more responsible. Schremp was the outlier. Edmonton didn’t get much from these selections as a group. The farm team walkabout was certainly a major factor and trades impacted the team too, plus looking for a second opinion (Winchester) that worked out for the player in a new town (for a time). What can we learn from this? Patience, dammit!
THE KIDS FROM 2005 TO 2009
Eberle>Hemsky but the portion of the bell curve ahead for Ebs will bring him back to the pack. This group wasn’t impacted by the farm team chaos, but were fast tracked (Gagner, Lander) or flushed for no good damned reason (Omark). One bizarre note: Schremp’s even strength scoring per 60>Gagner. How bizarre.
THE KIDS FROM 2013 TO 2017
This is the current group, the last five years. Enormous advantage in having the top two names signed to long-term deals, and Yamamoto took a step forward this season. I’m encouraged that Holland reached out to Slepyshev and further encouraged by recent comments from Jesse Puljujarvi that could have him back in Edmonton. I don’t think it’s wise to get too high or low with this news, the Puljujarvi side has wanted a trade for some time and it seems unlikely they would abandon the goal at this point in the offseason. A month from now? August? More likely.
Fascinating turn, Samorukov the latest in a (now) long line of Russian prospects who would prefer to play at home than in Bakersfield. Samorukov was challenged by AHL opposition a year ago, so a return would have been the play here. The KHL is a good league too, so as long as he plays then Samorukov should not lose any development time with this transaction. I do wonder if this might be a signal about the AHL season but that’s a stretch, we just don’t know. Oilers need some AHL blue if there’s a 2020-21 season though, that’s a fact.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
I have a feeling it’s going to be a busy day for breaking news, our turn comes at 10, TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports and Inside the Truck podcast will talk about the NHL’s return and what the game will look like upon return. Matt Iwanyk from TSN1260 will talk Euro 2020, hockey players in the summer Olympics, and the critera for the NHL’s hub cities (which seems to be changing). 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
N64,
This has gotten me thinking… Could we see a team protect 5-3 under the 8 skater protection limit?
If you value your 5th forward over your 4th D, but your 4th D over your 6th forward, wouldn’t you protect 5 and 3 in the hopes of enticing Seattle to take your F over the D? If you go 7-3 (as conventional wisdom might suggest is better), Seattle is nearly certain to select your 4th D. Protecting 2 extra players has cause you to lose a more valuable player.
Interesting scenario to consider, anyways. If you had cap space in this hypothetical scenario, you could probably make some decent draft pick gains through acquiring an overpaid F with a NMC that you’re “forced” to protect. Use the last protection slot on a prospect or just a career minor-leaguer.
I would think that Holland would give permission to any acquiring team to speak with Jesse’s people and get surety that he’ll sign his QO (or something similar) and come to North America.
maudite,
Also he’s a RFA so an acquiring team has to deal with his agent once they make a trade, IMO this has dropped his trade value more than anything, I suspect this story is more to reduce the hardline agent stance to facilitate a trade more than anything else.
RNH will be a UFA, And with the cap cratering I doubt he signs this summer. So do we make a handshake agreement to make a quality offer after the expansion draft and protect another young forward?
Also prospects pools of the OBC era were not well served by MacT’s throw them in sink or swim strategy.
Sardar Khalsa (@SardarKhalsa1) Tweeted:
Outlaw biker gangs heading to Seattle to mix it up with Antifa. This should be interesting.
*Ahem*
Not all of us thought Jones was better than Bear.
maudite,
JP getting bought for a 2nd then picked by Seattle.
It would basically result in losing a 2nd round pick to the expansion which doesn’t sound too bad
To me:
This also impact JJ Puj present trade value as well. He very well might not be worth more than a 2nd right now due to that fact that he adds to problem when it comes to protected list and is still logically unknown value with just potentially a higher ceiling.
Yeah….just adds extra asterix to NPV of this potential asset. I don’t see anyway we aren’t protecting 4 defennders
Klef
Nurse
bear
jones
4 forwards (likely)
Mcdavid
Drai
RNH
Yamato
Key exposed:
AA
Benson
Puj
kassian
Any addition paying that 1st is likely for a winger…which then means you are probably going 7/3 thereby exposing probably Jones….
I’d rather have an A- level prospect in pipeline then add to problem. That opportunity cost is massive unless you are willing to make a really bold move regarding defence prior to draft. Which, if that is the case, would make more sense to parlay value of whichever defenseman you think is best cashed prior to expansion draft
Agreed on Kassian, AA, etc. (well, unless AA spikes again) – the issue is adding a player to the protected list that pushes down a more material player.
If you add player that needs to be protected then the value difference between the player likely to be taken and the player bumped off the protected list needs to be taken in to account in the acquisition.
If that value gap is material, then, 100% it needs to be part of the GMs diligence.
That could be the case in Edmonton – much depends on the development of various players over the next year.
I think I read that Anderson is unlikely to be back for the post-season, at least for the beginning of it.
I’m thinking they go 4-4
McDavid, Drai, RNH, Yamamoto
Possibly lose AA or Benson
Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Larsson.
Possibly lose Jones or Benning.
Considering that RNH and Larsson could wait until after to sign, I believe Edmonton is in a really good position to not lose much.
Even if they sign early, at most we lose a mid level player.
Unless they take Koskinen or Smith. Then we’re in trouble.
OriginalPouzar,
“On the contrary, in my opinion, in the time leading up to the expansion draft, team building absolutely needs to have the expansion draft and its implications in mind.”
agreed, it has to be on the radar and is 1 factor to consider in regards to the roster …. but wasn’t Edmonton quite worried about who they were going to lose last time?
Every team loses one decent player. I believe time and energy from mgmt. can be spent on many other items, with the expansion draft lingering in the background.
If Seattle gets Kassian? so what. Gets AA , oh well. J.J. .. oh well … the 7-3 or 4-4 protected option gives team the ability to cover their best guys ..
I shouldn’t have acknowledged that we could potentially lose Nuge and Yama. There’s no way either of those players will be the eighth best forward on the team.
I’m going to go with terrible terrible hockey player.
Lots of players start out well in the AHL and aren’t NHL players as it turns out – JFJ was one of them and, although there is no way to ever know, I would suggest he wouldn’t have been an NHL player even if he was oft-injured – god he was terrible in the NHL as an Oiler, just awful.
’ll just make one more comment about this and move on. If you expose the acquired player, it doesn’t necessarily imply you have wasted the first round pick. In essence, you have used the first round pick to provide cover for a player like Jones, and reduced the possibility of losing him in the expansion draft. That in itself has value. If the acquired player has even less value than the players you expose, you have simply made a bad trade. This has no relationship with he expansion draft. You have simply made a bad trade.
If the player is better than Nuge or Yams then, yes, the trade is good in isolation but now you have to factor in losing Nuge or Yams – you’ve traded the 1st round pick and Yams for that player (and Benson or AA or whoever gets saved from getting picked) – dangerous game.
If the player is exposed, in all likelihood that means it was a bad trade – Even is he’s a good player, you get him for a year and he’s gone – you’ve traded a good 1st round pick for a rental.
Sure, you could say they’ve traded the 1st round pick to keep Jones, that’s a good point I’ll concede.
On the contrary, in my opinion, in the time leading up to the expansion draft, team building absolutely needs to have the expansion draft and its implications in mind.
The Oilers are set-up to lose a solid/good player (shit maybe even a really good player depending on how the likes of Jones, AA, Benson play this coming year) but, if they go one player further down the list, they are set up to lose a very very good player.
We can’t say that will be the case with certainty, given movements through the year but I’m very confident GM’s are cognizant if expansion draft implications.
Agreed. Too many teams hurt themselves trying to convince Vegas to take player A, rather than player B. Unfortunately for Seattle, NHL GMs learned a painful lesson that won’t be repeated in the future.
They have in their homestead stake in Seattle. The Capital Hill Autonomous Zone,..or CHAZ. Paradise (its Seattle so maybe Nirvana) finally exists for those pro-antifa pro-BLM academic types. I wonder if many of them will choose to relocate to this “heaven-on-earth”.
Klefbom and Nurse will both be under contract – their current/new contracts run 3 and 2 more years, respectively.
Yes, the ultimate would be to have Nuge wait until after the expansion draft to re-sign him but, practically, I think its more realistic that he’s re-signed prior to then.
You are right, we can’t predict the protected and exposed lists with any sort of certainty – the draft is a full season away and, for all we know, Nurse is traded for example – we just don’t know.
We can make predictions based on current organizational depth and contract status and, as of right now, its looking like a Jones will be exposed or, if he pops, a few of AA, Benson, Kassian, etc.
If we add a protected player in there bumping another to exposed, that player is looking to be very material, like Yamamoto.
If the player acquired is left unprotected, well, I hope we don’t give up the 1st round pick for a player that they are willing to expose a year later.
————-
Correct, exempt assets should have more value which is really the point I was making – not that an exempt asset cannot be traded for non-exempt asset but it needs to be a heck of a deal.
Hudler off the top of my head left to Czech league after a few years in the AHL and then played as an NHL regular (prior to another hiatus, to Russia).
Giordano was a tweener prior to his year in the KHL.
Without hearing anything official, I don’t think this has anything to do with the an issue with his development, role in the Bake or the org but I presume its to guarantee he’ll be playing hockey from September to December as the AHL is unlikely to be playing in that period.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Holland and the organization were actually in favor of this.
If you look back to the Vegas expansion draft, almost ALL Teams were too concerned with what they were losing … you lose your 8th or 9th best player. That’s it .. no need to worry. There are lots of players who can step up into those slots …
Build the best team you can. Know that you will lose 1 player. move on. Don’t overthink it.
My apologies if I was considered a part of that.
Sorry Jimmy I know you werent, my comment was directed to the person who replied to yours talking about there being a narrative.
I think your point is very valid and one I agree with too. I think adding voices such as Cheechoo or Nolan would help draw attention to it.
Has the mob renamed the city yet?
Yep.
For those that haven’t read – go find his retirement post on Facebook. Reveals a lot. Very sad but glad he’s found his way to the other side of it.
Check on your people. Even when you think they’re at their best.
Minneapolis was already on the road to being the next Detroit or Newark. They were lagging behind Baltimore in their pursuit but this action should bring them to the front of the line rather quickly. Interesting? Perhaps, when viewed from afar. Up close it will be something else entirely.
Gents, I appreciate the perspectives but this hockey blog simply cannot tolerate political, racial, religious and other contentious arguments. No one is timed out, would have hoped for more respectful discourse from some, but suffice to say the deleted content is unwelcome for the rest of the day.
Thanks.
C’mom. Lets move on to more important questions, like whether JK Rowling is actually Voldemort because she asserts that women with two X chromosomes should have substantive equality to women with a Y chromosome.
Minneapolis has voted unanimously to disband its police department.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/12/us/minneapolis-city-council-resolution-police-reform/index.html?__twitter_impression=true
This should be interesting.
I simply noted that I was surprised no natives were on the HDA. I didn’t intend to start a big debate and I certainly didn’t intend to criticize the HDA.
You’re talking about today. It could change in a year from now. One year ago, most of us probably liked Jones more than Bear. A lot changes in a year. I’ll say it again. I’ll be surprised, but not shocked, if Bear regresses next year, Jones progresses, and their perceived values change.
This group formed four days ago with seven people, give them a break. Hopefully they recognize the struggles other groups have faced, especially indigenous peoples in Canada, and have invitations for players of those backgrounds to join.
This is independent of the league and as we can already see, cause some criticism and possible back lash. They can not force players to join but hopefully more do.
“In creating our alliance, we are confident we can inspire a new generation of hockey players and fans,” it said in a statement. “We are hopeful that anyone who puts on skates or sits in the stands will do so without worrying about race, gender or socioeconomic background (and) will be able to express their culture, identity, values and personality without fear of retribution.”
I don’t see anything in that mission statement other than a noble and honorable cause.
Last year at this time I wanted a Jesse and Jones trade to Columbus for Josh Anderson and a 3rd rounder. Jones could team up with his brother and Jesse could land with the Finn GM, man what a over pay that is. I wonder what it would take to get Josh or even if he’s healthy his stock sure went down but I think he would be the perfect rifleman on Mcdavid’s line. Kass, Connor and Josh that’s a dream line for me.
Thanks for posting this, I really never followed Schremp after his time with the Oil. Did a little digging after reading your post, and it makes a little more sense how things turned out.
Doesn’t fit the narrative.
As we get in to mid-June, we are coming up on what normally would be some important dates.
The deadline to extend qualifying offers to RFAs.
The buyout window (generally starts 48 hours after the cup is given).
My guess is that we will have some official clarity that all these dates are bumped to when the official off-season will be – after the post-season gets completed (or cancelled if need be).
There has been some discussion if non-playoff teams can buy players out at this point and tender the QOs but I wouldn’t think they’d bifurcate that.
I was surprised the Hockey Diversity Alliance didn’t include a single native person. I’m an old white guy so WTF do I know, but I would suggest no single cultural group has suffered more in Canada than natives.
No GM in their right mind would protect Jones over Bear. Not only are right D harder to find but the Oilers left side D is far deeper. If Jones has the value you think he has you move him for a equally young forward to fit in your top six and protect seven and three.
https://theathletic.com/1865153/2020/06/12/there-is-racism-still-very-alive-and-well-the-indigenous-experience-in-hockey/
Please read the entire article. Black Lives Matter protests have been in the news, and Edmonton got 10,000-15,000 people out to the Ledge for a protest, which is phenomenal.
But I wonder how many people would turn up for an Indigenous Lives Matter protest.
When did he first injure his back? I can’t remember for sure.
His first pro season (05-06) he played 65 AHL – 7 NHL games.
06-07 he played 29 AHL – 37 NHL games (37-0-0-0 in the NHL).
07-08 he played 38 AHL – 9 NHL games (running his career totals to 53-0-0-0). He missed significant games here so this may have been the major injury?
08-09 he only played 8 AHL – 7 NHL games (finally scored a goal). Seemingly injured most of the season.
Then he played 2 years mostly with the Oilers, producing little offense.
IIRC he may have been 40+ games into his NHL career without a point BEFORE his major injury. I could also be mistaken though. Seemed a bit Lander-y in his inability to translate AHL offense to the NHL…
Or 4-4. Sure you get 2 extra skaters with 7-3, but it still comes down first of all to which 8 skaters do you want to protect.
If the first 8 includes 5 forwards odds are Kraken will take Oil’s 4th D, but yeah you get to protect two more F to make sure they do. 😉 #nogriff
LMHF#1,
Yeah, he’s something like Zegras, I’d say.
Funny of the things Steve Valiquette was really trumpeting in his Athletic interview, which was mostly about stats, he talks about how using a psychologist turned his career around.
I think the focus for him was on using psychologists for goalies to deal with letting in weak goals, et cetera, but there’s so many players who could benefit.
Agreed. They’ll go 7-3 if either of those guys have to be exposed.
Neither will be exposed if on roster.
After the Vegas debacle everyone is going to factor it on the cost side, but they’ll also factor in into the value they are asking for even if it does not impact them on the cost side. #paymeorkraken
See: Lowe+MacT
Injury. He started out like gangbusters in Hamilton, was a crowd favourite but got injured and the rest never got written.