Mike Green’s announcement that he is passing on the playoffs for personal family reasons is both understandable and commendable. No one should be asked to put himself or any loved one in grave danger during this pandemic.
It’s left for the rest of the Oilers roster to pull together and make a good showing in the postseason. There are considerable talents remaining on the roster.
THE ATHLETIC!
Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Mike Green’s opt-out isn’t ideal, but Oilers defence should manage without him
- New Lowetide: Joakim Nygard’s Oilers season reveals speedster with range of skills
- Lowetide: Dave Tippett’s postseason strategy against the Blackhawks
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers notebook: Bear’s contract quandary, Broberg’s mini camp, bubble goalies
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s comparables suggest a possible future with Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Every Oilers AHL prospect rated by how close they are to the NHL
- Lowetide: Setting the record straight on Oilers prospect Cooper Marody’s future
- Lowetide: Tough decisions face Oilers’ Ken Holland as cap forces painful choices
- Lowetide: How Oilers winger Kailer Yamamoto can increase his value
- Lowetide: Everything you forgot (but need to know) about Oilers’ 2019-20 season
- Lowetide: Injury is biggest factor in the Oilers’ hopes for extended playoff run
- Lowetide: Tyler Benson’s struggle to score might affect future role with Oilers
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s second Oilers draft should deliver high-octane offence
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘It’s all surreal’: Kevin Lowe’s Hall of Fame nod nets surprise and satisfaction
- Lowetide: 10 things to look for at Oilers training camp and the 2020 playoffs
- Jonathan Willis: Why Carl Soderberg is an intriguing free agent possibility for the Oilers
LIKELY TRAINING CAMP ROSTER
It’s my understanding that all but Caleb Jones are in training camp. Edmonton needs that young man, especially now that Green is not available. All fans think their team has a shot during training camp and the Oilers have abundant blessings in many places. Make no mistake: Jones as the No. 7 defenseman is better than any of the names below him. It may be nothing but it could be a big damn deal as the days roll along.
LINEUP PREFERENCE
Everyone has a lineup they believe will work best, and for me the possibilities are so impressive when playing Andreas Athanasiou, Caleb Jones (if ready) and Mikko Koskinen in feature roles that I’d deploy them in lofty places.
Connor McDavid at center with Andreas Athanasiou and Zack Kassian gives the captain two big wingers with speed. AA also does have a reputation for having two-way ability (although it was buried on a terrible Detroit team) so perhaps he can deliver in an area that needs help on that top line.
Leon Draisaitl remains with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kailer Yamamoto until they prove the magic has disappeared. The trio was so dominant down the stretch, the chemistry so strong, I do believe we should expect success.
Riley Sheahan and Josh Archibald together is a no-brainer, I’d choose Joakim Nygard to run alongside. He brings speed and some skill to the line and does have two-way ability. I like all three players and believe this trio can have success. Gaetan Haas earned a spot but I don’t think he’ll get one, at least to start.
Jujhar Khaira gets the nod for me at No. 4 center, with Tyler Ennis and Alex Chiasson on the wing. Ennis can slide up and down the roster, he has scoring ability and speed. Khaira struggled for much of the season, but settled in as a pivot late and impressed. He played center for the final five games of the year, his line outscoring opponents 3-0 and about even save the Vegas game where the trio got shellacked. Chiasson is a veteran and had some success with Khaira as well late in the year. No shot at James Neal, he could plug on to this line without skipping a beat. Ken Holland gave Dave Tippett real depth and that means some tough decisions.
Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson as the top pairing gives the team a veteran tandem with puck moving and defensive ability. Larsson played brilliant hockey down the stretch and Klefbom is the team’s best overall defender.
Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear were effective together in 2019-20, in fact these two formed the top pairing for much of the year. This will be a big playoff for both men and I think playing as a tandem gives both their best chance at success.
Caleb Jones and Matt Benning is my choice for third pairing. Jones was exceptional after recall and Benning has been on a pairing that outscores opponents since he arrived in Edmonton years ago. It would be a team strength if both are healthy. That isn’t a rip on Kris Russell by the way, he’s a veteran NHL defenseman and the Oilers are lucky to have him. Jones passed him, plain and simple.
Mikko Koskinen is my choice in net because he outplayed Mike Smith over the long season. It’s a fairly easy decision in my mind.
I’m leaning that way as well but it is a coin toss that I think TC will decide.
This is a case of using the old chestnut “Avoid that man like the plague” guilt free.
A story like this illustrates the need to stop trusting “official” information and start exercising common sense. If we get ill the last thing anyone needs is to look to start blaming anyone else. Some things are beyond puny man’s ability to control and this looks like one of them.
Monday, July 13 – TRAINING CAMP!
Who is excited to hear some post practice verbal?
Maybe even hear about initial lines and pairings?
€√¥£€^$,
I’m sure they’re not, but wow.
Munny,
defmn,
Well, Smith certainly has swagger. 🙂
I live in Calgary, on Thursday I had a meeting with a contractor we work with quite often. On 12-13 March he was set up at a tradeshow in Southern Alberta and a woman from Toronto had her booth set-up across from him. She was coughing and sweating the entire time. 2 days later he had the same symptoms and was very ill for about 1 week. He could not get tested, since he hadn’t left the country.
We were aware as this was happening based on phone calls, but no one at the tradeshow was officially announced as having had Covid-19.
This contractor has 2 adult daughters, they both visited him the Sunday after the tradeshow and had not gone anywhere else the week prior or following. They were both diagnosed with Covid. His 30 yr old daughter, an avid hiker was hospitalized.
She has officially “recovered”, but she now has significantly reduced lung function. She is unable to walk more than 30 feet without having to stop to take a break. The contractor has also developed a corn allergy.
I doubt these are unique stories.
Agreed.
But I’ve always thought that about this season, and Smith would still be my starter Game 1. Swagger being a big part of that.
Thanks. Got it now. Not sure I think it disproves or proves anything about a short series though for me. The numbers clearly favour Koskinen for the season. It could be my old memory, of course, but I seem to remember more ‘hilight’ or important saves from Smith which was all that I was getting at.
Maybe it is just his swagger when he is out there. He is clearly not as good as Koskinen over time.
jp,
Sorry, in my reply I lost track of your focus on Defmn’s comment and was applying your post to the Game 1 starter discussion. I think you did a good job of looking at Defmn’s musings. The “less decorum” version seems supported by the data… ie, out of the outlier performances (good and bad), Smith’s are nearly 50-50, ie, we can be more confident that he will provide more range in performance good and bad. He’s nearly as likely to stink as he is to steal, given a large enough body of data. Regular season data doesn’t indicate the same with Koski.
As just explained to defmn most of my intended post failed to make it to the final.
Was trying to see if Smith had more good and more bad starts (‘more range’, as defmn originally said). The numbers just look like he wasn’t as good overall (as you say). It was indeed nothing new.
I had/have no issue with Smith starting game 1 and agree with your logic on starting him in addition.
Actually, when I originally read the post one of the things I wondered about was the other ranges, so thanks for re-posting and clearing that up.
I think you’ve proved Defmn’s hypothesis to be correct.
Yeah the edits tried to explain the failed post.
I looked at how many games each goalie played that ended with a given SV%. To see if there was evidence of wider performance swings by Smith (“more range”).
I can probably do this by memory now after typing it twice
Less than .800
Smith 4
Kosk 1
.800-849
Smith 6
Kosk 4
.850-.899
Smith 9
Kosk 8
.900-.949
Smith 15
Kosk 14
better than .950
Smith 6
Kosk 10
I think that’s right.
So the SV% doesn’t seem to show more range. Just less good and more shitty performances by Smith. Not very interesting in the end. (and using <.850 and the like was a bad idea)
He’s won two cups in the KHL. Much weaker league of course, but it shows he can handle the pressure.
Yes, agreed. This was a direct response to “Smith can win you a series, Smith can lose you a series”.
Oilers B2B is scheduled for Games 4&5 so they might not happen. For other teams, it’s Games 2&3 and 3&4.
defmn,
Games is the way I took it.
JimmyV1965,
I will say that I’ve been here since the beginning and that… might be one of LT’s absolute best comment posts.
Those numbers don’t say a lot to me.
Koski clearly has the better SV percentage on the year as a whole. The numbers above are basically saying the same thing. I.e. nothing new.
What I’d want to know is the details about the games. Was the team in front of the keeper selling the farm? Were the games all about the goaler having a bad day? Were there more penalties/powerplays in those games, etc., etc…
I will say up front that I expect the younger fellow to be more consistent and reliable in the long run. As he seemingly proved to be this season.
But I give him a chance to experience the NHL playoffs from the bench (and he has yet to ever do even that) in Game 1, play the vet, and run with a no-lose scenario with respect to goalie deployment.
Play Koski in Game 1, thus dissing the vet and then if Koski shits the bed, we are in a much tougher spot than the other way around, in my opinion.
Excellent, excellent comment. Pro athletes are people too. We forget that too easily. I think the vast majority of players will take this very seriously now that training camps are starting. Most guys don’t want to be the teammate who puts the rest of he team at risk by doing something stupid.
Not sure I am following exactly. What does the
.950 SV%
Smith— 6
Koskinen 10
refer to exactly?
I think we’re just arguing about Game 1. I hope so because I think we’ll need both goalies for the team to do well in the Covid Cup.
Unless I’m reading the stats wrong, in all of the years Smith went to the playoffs, his SV percentage dramatically increased.
Scoring typically drops in hockey playoffs, so I don’t take the above as evidence for anything (other than scoring typically drops).
OilFire,
As others have said, appreciate the info and all the best to you and yours.
That’s the beauty(?) of this version of the Oilers.
Neither goalie will get the chance to lose a series on his own.
(that’s not meant as an argument for Smith btw)
What do the numbers say?
39 appearances for Smith, 38 for Koskinen.
.950 SV%
Smith — 6
Koskinen 10
I didn’t try to look at who was starter/got pulled/came in in relief. Neither goalie had a single appearance all year less than 20 minutes though (and there was only one of those).
Rather than more range, it kinda just looks like Smith was worse at stopping pucks more often than Koskinen.
Edit: well that’s annoying. Most of my actual post disappeared.
39 appearances for Smith, 38 for Koskinen.
.950 SV%
Smith — 6
Koskinen 10
2nd Edit:
I have no idea what’s going on. Someone doesn’t want you to see the numbers… (typed it in a 2nd time but won’t translate to the internet) (maybe the syntax?)
Anyway, Smith has more shitty games. They have similar decent games (exactly the same between .850 and .950 SV%) and Koskinen, as you actually can see, has more good games.
3rd edit:
Yup, the I used the “greater than”, “less than” symbols on the SV% and deleted (but did not quote) my post..
Yup, KHL.
I would further note that, in 3 of those 5 years, his save percentage went up in the playoffs, it went down one year and stayed the same one year (well, .002 down).
The up bumps were material.
I think coach should go with who is playing better in the camp but, if all things are equal, Mikko was better on the year but we know Smith will be pencilled in.
Thanks for that exemplary post. Changes in positivity rate without test rate changes are a tell. Finals host Edmonton is at 1% positivity.
Thanks folks.
This community is the best.
Fingers crossed for you here as well.
OilFire,
Oh dear. Hope that works out well.
I knew the statistical stuff beforehand, including the excess death data in NY… and have been telling people about the under-reporting, but had not heard clear confirmation about the politics behind it till your post. And for that… again, I say thank you.
All the best to you and yours; I’ll be cheering for that harder than the hockey.
Munny,
The ER doctor story is behind the scenes, but the statistical stuff is just all from articles (my wife is ER, not epidemiology or infectious diseases).
I do have a personal interest in this stuff though, as I may have been exposed last week and we have a 1 month old. My wife is off on Mat. leave, and we are on full quarantine as a joint unit with one other family. The other family dropped off a birthday cake at a house on Wed. that turned out to have Covid. They didn’t go inside the house and chances are low, but we now have to begin testing the chain of people. Fingers crossed.
I should in return note, KHL.
They’re both streaky. No doubt. Can’t make a strategy off who was streakiest last. Go with psychology. We’re going to need them both (as we have all season), but Game 1, give the crease to the vet.
OriginalPouzar,
Ahh, thanks. Thought it was more than that. Then I rescind my 3 on 3 OT for the qual round postulation (I would’ve been okay if they did it after playing one full regular OT period, but that measure likely isn’t necessary).
OilFire,
Thank you so much for this behind the scenes view.
Each of the play-in series have one potential back to back game.
For the Oilers/Hawks, its games 4 and 5 on August 7th and 8th – may not be necessary.
I should note, the Mikko’s playoff save percentages in the KHL:
.936
.928
.936
.949
.938
.935
Yes, he recovered from that terrible December and, if I recall correctly, he got hot and they rode him to some success. His hot streak ended and then Mikko took back over and was the better playing goalie heading in to the break.
Scungilli Slushy,
I’m not trying to pile on as you got sort of tackled a bit after your first question post there despite it’s polite tone.
However, I want to point out that at least one of your points is completely the opposite of what is true. You say that Covid is over-reported because docs/hospitals are paid an extra fee for that, so they “juice” the numbers. My wife is a doctor and I live in the U.S. The real situation on the ground is that hospital administrators are stopping docs from using Covid tests in order to keep the numbers artificially low.
My wife has been trying to help an ER doc at an unnamed hospital here because she got in a fight with admin. over this. This doc ordered the Covid test on a patient that was exposed to it and clearly had the symptoms. A hospital administrator blocked it and called her into his office, telling her she is not allowed to order any Covid test for any patient unless he has his authorization first (which won’t be coming).
Why? Well, the answer is that hospital corporations are losing money hand-over-fist because so much elective healthcare is being postponed. Look up the slice of the GDP that is healthcare here, and how much it’s down here just due to people postponing things. So: hospital administrations here are stopping the tests so that they don’t have to report the cases, so that they aren’t known as a Covid hotspot, and they can keep doing business. It’s sick, and this ER doctor that got blocked is caught up fighting, but is very likely going to get fired and then blackballed from the area (that is quite common here).
Once the numbers of infected in the area start to get pretty high, the horse is out of the barn though. I think at that point the administrators will stop interfering with the testing.
How else do we know the infection rate isn’t lower than the published numbers? Well, two things: the test positivity rate is up to like 15% when experts say that you’re missing many many positives if that number isn’t well below 5%. Even better evidence comes from excess deaths. Look up the “Covid death rate” in NYC during it’s Covid storm. When compared to the seasonal death rates for NYC, it is clear that there are actually many “excess deaths” that must have been Covid-19 that weren’t caught and labelled under that umbrella. Circa 20% if I recall correctly. I think it’s pretty clear then that instead of non-Covid deaths being counted as the new virus to boost the numbers, we’re actually somewhat undercounting the numbers of actual Covid deaths (though obviously the official count is only approximate).
I think overall, the picture we see of the infection spread is fairly accurate. If we had many more tests of course, we could do much better than the current fuzzy picture, but there’s no way that the current dataset is vastly *over*-reporting things.
I would also urge caution in buying into the idea that the now-lower-looking death numbers means they were previously mis-counting deaths due to incompetence or to make things appear more dire. It’s complicated to explain the different possible reasons for it, and I don’t think we have the real statistical explanation yet anyway so I won’t guess other than to mention the factors involved: change in age of infected population, lag between infection and death, and under-testing during the first wave. But, I will say that it is quite possible to see the current trend in deaths without it meaning that we are looking at a non-serious disease.
Edited to add: Houston just started adding refrigerated trailers outside the hospital for the bodies… Also this from today’s Houston Chronicle: “But Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data shows Texas is one of 24 states that publicly reports only confirmed COVID-19 deaths, not “probable” ones. And with rampant testing shortages in Texas, many patients likely died without being screened for the disease, experts said. ” and also this from the same: “Front-line doctors are skeptical that all of the deaths they see are being accurately counted. “The death certificate I signed on June 30 with a confirmed lab test is still not being reported as a COVID death,” said one HCA Healthcare Northwest physician on Thursday.“
Was simply providing some facts on the cap situation – the cap situation of a division rival is relevant information for Oiler fans.
Yes, yes they did.
I haven’t taken a peek at the schedule (don’t wanna jinx shit), but wasn’t some of the commentariat here saying that there are B2B games?
If that’s the case, we’re going to see backups deployed far more than we would in a normal playoffs.
#newnormal
One thing on this – Smith was 1GP away from a $250K bonus for 40 games and 6 away from an additional $250K at 45 games.
Not sure what the league will do but I anticipate at least $250K awarded which will add to the cap penalty for next season.
The above is a very reasonable approach to the issue. Although the three extra ties for Smith call into question whether he has the bigger range of performance. Either way, we’ve seen both goalies both stink and steal.
In my mind it comes back to goalies are voodoo.
That is, psychology will be playing a role. So here are some of the things running through my head…
—I think OP is correct in saying that Koski has had two hot starts to a season. I don’t think two is enough to rely on to be sure the coin will flip heads yet again, but it is something.
—Smith has far more NHL playoff experience including a great outing just last year. We know he can raise his game when the stakes get raised. Doesn’t mean he will do it again, but there’s more history behind it than Koski’s two hot season starters.
—I think given last year’s playoff performance, his age and experience, not starting Smith would raise more questions in Smith’s head than it would Koski’s. I’m not MacT, I don’t want to be messing with goalie heads
—Not starting Game 1 doesn’t affect Koski’s “hot start” streak. He would still be starting fresh from a personal p.o.v. if he starts Game 2
—A stinker from Smith in Game 1 means the coach has carte blanche to do with the goalies as he will from that point forward with no question from the long term vet.
—Yeah it’s a short series and one loss can make all the difference, but there isn’t enough of a difference between the two goalies in terms of record (which does matter) to be confident of picking one or the other
…so go with the vet for Game 1.
As for the one exhibition game… split the netminding. One would be nuts not to, I think. Every team should be giving their backup at least a period. Been a long time since any keeper saw frozen rubber fired in anger. Get both your goalies back into it while you have the briefest of chances to do so without consequence.
I got my months mixed up it was Jan 2 against Buffalo when Smith started playing lights out.
So, what you’re saying is the Canucks young players are really good.
Did any of the Oilers young players hit bonus levels?
I agree with this and the Oilers shouldn’t need a goalie to win a series and they definitely can’t withstand a goalie “losing a series” for them.
As an aside: Mikko has shown the ability to get hot for stretches as well – he’s done it a few times each season. He could win a series as well.
I didn’t suggest that Benson crossed any line.
I merely used Tyler as an example to prove that Kassian was far from the only NHL player not limiting himself to a “home and rink” quarantine and his being pointed out for such was a bit dishonest.
Of course these players have personal freedoms and golfing, taking selfies at coffee shops and even going out for a few drinks is something they are all at liberty to do.
At the same time, every single player and person that will be part of stage 4 should have feel a personal responsibility to to what they can give to help give the Return to Play the best chance it has to work – for themselves, their teammates, their league and the fans.
Of note, the Nucks finish over the cap (due to LTIR) and Hughes and Petersson both maxed that Sched A bonuses for a total of $1.7M. If Petterson is a first or second team all-star, he gets a $2M bonus.
Nucks will have a cap penalty of either $1.7M or $3.7M (which they can “pay” in full next year or split over two years).
defmn,
Smith is more likely to win a series on his own
But he’s more likely to loose a series on his own and this is more likely to happen
I go with koskinen