Harvest Moon 2020 (Covid edition)

by Lowetide

It remains my favourite series of posts each year. Perhaps I’ll have a chance to write a Stanley Cup post some day that will surpass draft weekend, but for now it’s the best time on the blog for its author.

It begins on draft Friday with ‘Here Comes the Sun’ and then goes through a series (more than five less than 10) of “Oilers at” posts that offer quick details about the latest addition.

Finally, on Saturday night comes ‘Harvest Moon’ and an overview of the weekend’s procurement. The draft won’t happen until October, but there’s much to discuss from this draft already. Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

LOWETIDE PROJECTED WEEKEND

First round, No. 23 overall — RC Mavrik Bourque, Shawinigan (QMJHL). NHLE: 33.7. Fine skater, great passer, creative. He’s 5.10 176 and a quality prospect. Red Line compares him to Travis Konecny.

Second round, No. 54 overall —  L Martin Chromiak, Kingston (OHL). NHLE: 31.2 Skilled winger with speed, I don’t think Mysak lasts this long but Chromiak is a nice consolation.

Third round, No. 85 overall —  RW Alexander Pashin, Ufa (MHL).  NHLE: 15.6 Undersized, skill forward who is a bit under the radar.

Fourth round, No. 116 overall —  LW Oskar Magnusson, Malmo (SuperElite). NHLE: 25.9 .Fine prospect brings speed and a great shot. Undersized.

Fifth round, No. 147 overall — RD Thimo Nickl, Drummondville (QMJHL). NHLE: 18.2 Puck moving defenseman with some chaos.

Sixth round, No. 178 overall —  LW Eric JuhlinVasteras (SuperElite). NHLE: 17.7. Good shot, solid performance (13 goals in 36 games) at even strength.

Seventh round, No. 209 overall —  RD Mitch Miller, Tri-City Storm (USHL). NHLE: 16.6. Skilled defenseman, passing his greatest asset.

KEN HOLLAND’S 2020 DRAFT

First round, No. 23 overall — RW Jacob Perreault, Sarnia (OHL). NHLE: 32.5. He scored 39 goals in 57 OHL games. Sniper. Skilled. Red Line compares him to Jake DeBrusk. Great shot. Quick release.

Second round, No. 54 overall — TRADED for LW Andreas Athanasiou. After a bunch of trades that involved sending out Devan Dubnyk, Jeff Petry and Andrew Cogliano for second round picks or less, Holland’s decision to add Athanasiou for two seconds (another in 2021) hit a good spot for this observer. I don’t know if it’ll work out but I like the bet. Athanasiou can deliver immediately and is young enough to hang around for several years.

Third round, No. 85 overall —  TRADED for James Neal. No matter what happens here and I do believe the NHL will side with Calgary, this is a trade that made sense at the time. Holland would have been severely handcuffed with both the noxious buyout penalty and punitive ‘no movement’ aspect as it pertained to the expansion draft.

Fourth round, No. 116 overall —  TRADED for Mike Green. Edmonton received just one game and a little bit for this pick, but Green looked like an astute acquisition at the time. One assumes Holland feels he can trade back in to the top 100 overall.

Fifth round, No. 147 overall — RD Mason Langenbrunner, Eden Prairie High School. Young defenseman with the vital stats of a pencil (6.03, 170). He has the complete range of skills and is on his way to Harvard.

Sixth round, No. 178 overall —  G Calle Clang, Rogle (SuperElite). Big goalie with good results in league play and internationally, projecting goaltenders and where they’ll land is impossible in the era of ‘searching for giants’ but I like Clang’s resume a lot.

Seventh round, No. 209 overall —  LW Pavel Gogolev, Guelph Storm (OHL). He turned 20 in February, has passed through the draft twice and remains a dynamic offensive prospect. He represents exceptional value here (I have him No. 96) and should go earlier but you could have said that in 2018 and 2019, too.

JP

Aivis Kalniņš is reporting (here) that Jesse Puljujarvi has no interest in the KHL (an approach was made). I do think there’s a chance we see the big Finn dealt over the summer, perhaps for a NY Rangers selection. I’ve always said the Athanasiou acquisition looked like swapping in AA and would eventually see JP swapped out. I would not trade JP for picks.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we hit the ground running with a great group of guests. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will talk new lines (Bruce won’t be pleased) and a few old timey items. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will tell us about the pain of Cole Custer going four wide at a Nascar race to win a race and explode a bet that looked good all day long. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Constant chatter at 10!

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Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

Tippett comparing Leon to Forsberg yesterday got me all warm in the secret spots! I never saw the similarities until he pointed it out. Forsberg had a bit more edge, but I’d take that comparison all day.

Brantford Boy

LT: “TRADED for James Neal. No matter what happens here and I do believe the NHL will side with Calgary”… “F” that noise! I’d like to hear your take on this…

My thoughts are the conditions were never met, done deal…

Elgin R

LT: I like your later picks of RD as you should be able to move them for a better player in the left side if you have too. I would not trade JP for anyone that needs to be protected in the Krakken expansion draft. If Holland can not get a home run then let him play another year in Finland. Does Seattle take JP? If eligible then I would think so.

hunter1909

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HUNTER2020 PLAYOFF DEATH MARCH™ IS BACK! STILL TOTALLY FREE!

…simply decide how many goals McDavid+Yamamoto will combine for, plus how many games Oilers will Win in the upcoming playoffs and then finally how many games they Lose… its easy!

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…to join the rest of the Winners!

WINNERS GET PRIZES WINNERS GET PRIZES WINNERS GET PRIZES

dustrock

Brantford Boy:
LT: “TRADED for James Neal. No matter what happens here and I do believe the NHL will side with Calgary”… “F” that noise! I’d like to hear your take on this…

My thoughts are the conditions were never met, done deal…

On a straight reading of the contract, I’d agree – but the argument might be that unforeseeable conditions made it literally impossible to even meet the terms of the contract.

Was there substantial compliance of the contract?

I think the NHL will side with the Flames as well.

Brantford Boy

dustrock,

I hear and understand your points, so bonuses would fall under this line of thought as well then?

It just opens up a huge can of worms to go down that way of thinking… IMO

Durag

edit: ^^^ haha, yes exactly this

Brantford Boy:
LT: “TRADED for James Neal. No matter what happens here and I do believe the NHL will side with Calgary”… “F” that noise! I’d like to hear your take on this…

My thoughts are the conditions were never met, done deal…

I agree. It sets a precedent that you can project stats over the remainder of the season, which gives a lot of players an argument that they should be paid out on bonuses they fell short of. Owners will want to squash this.

Durag

My theory is Lowetide is taking that position so he can skip the hypothetical #85 pick because he hates talking about the draft.

ruotsalainen

I rarely get around to comment anymore, but still try to read everyday. Love catching up on all the posts and comments, but I especially love the Harvest Moon series. Just needed to say that. Hope everyone is and stays well.

OriginalPouzar

So, 23rd overall – is the prediction that the Oilers beat Chicago and then lose in the 1st round of the playoffs?

barry.moore23

My wife has a crush on Travis Konecny so I’d guess we’d better draft this Bourque guy 🙂

OriginalPouzar

LT, I can’t disagree that the flames may get the Oilers 3rd rounder but you don’t think that it just ends there and the Oilers don’t get an added pick at the end of round 3?

Personally, trying to be unbiased, I don’t think it makes sense that the flames get nothing but I also don’t think it makes sense if the Oilers give up the 3rd and get nothing back. Neither are “fair” and, no, i don’t buy in to the “trade condition didn’t vest” – the season was topped due to a force majeure – its not the same as “well, Neal could have been injured” – in my opinion.

defmn

First time I have ever heard a reason given for why he is so unhappy with the organization.

https://fullpresscoverage.com/2020/07/15/jesse-puljujarvi-has-no-interest-in-playing-in-the-khl/

Torpedo owns the rights to the 22-year old forward, while the Edmonton Oilers still hold his NHL rights. Puljujarvi still isn’t interested in returning to play for the Oilers due to them not taking care of player’s health properly. The trade request still stands but there is no sign of any deal taking place anytime soon.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, I saw that Jesse tidbit earlier and makes sense to me. I never thought he would sign in the KHL as it would close the door on an NHL return during the course of the KHL contract.

I still think he re-signs in Karpat with the standard NHL out clause – doesn’t mean he’ll return to the NHL this year but, best case scenario, for me – a place to play in the fall and then he can sign his QO and come over for camp in the early winter!

OriginalPouzar

N64: Dreger confirmed that the outstanding issue with the feds has been settled. It was about the bubble mod rules includingNHL contractors. NBC would be one part of that group.

This is my understanding as well.

The press conferences that were postponed will happen tomorrow (Thursday) as I’ve read.

dustrock

Brantford Boy:
dustrock,

I hear and understand your points, so bonuses would fall under this line of thought as well then?

It just opens up a huge can of worms to go down that way of thinking… IMO

Yeah, I get that argument. There’s always the “slippery slope” argument for anything.

I get the attraction of “too bad, it was a pandemic, nobody’s fault but none of these were made so that’s it”, as it just ends the argument for all cases.

But if you were say Smith needing 1 more game to get a games played bonus, was it probable he would play one more game in the last 4-6 weeks? Probably, yeah.

--hudson--

OriginalPouzar:
LT, I can’t disagree that the flames may get the Oilers 3rd rounder but you don’t think that it just ends there and the Oilers don’t get an added pick at the end of round 3?

Personally, trying to be unbiased, I don’t think it makes sense that the flames get nothing but I also don’t think it makes sense if the Oilers give up the 3rd and get nothing back.Neither are “fair” and, no, i don’t buy in to the “trade condition didn’t vest” – the season was topped due to a force majeure – its not the same as “well, Neal could have been injured” – in my opinion.

With Lucic being 11 goals behind Neal, could the Oilers argue in a prorated season there are multiple universes where he closes that gap to 10 or less?

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Flames should get nothing.

A trade with futures is an investment, its not income.

Investment comes with risk.

The terms were not met.

Its as if my landlord can come to me for a rent increase this year based on inflation as he’s done in the past. Um no, Covid-19 disrupted your investment. That’s called risk.

flyfish1168

OriginalPouzar:
LT, I can’t disagree that the flames may get the Oilers 3rd rounder but you don’t think that it just ends there and the Oilers don’t get an added pick at the end of round 3?

Personally, trying to be unbiased, I don’t think it makes sense that the flames get nothing but I also don’t think it makes sense if the Oilers give up the 3rd and get nothing back.Neither are “fair” and, no, i don’t buy in to the “trade condition didn’t vest” – the season was topped due to a force majeure – its not the same as “well, Neal could have been injured” – in my opinion.

OP Interesting how you feel about this situation. So how would this apply to players that just fell short of their bonuses in their contacts? NHL would be opening a big can of worms here

Doesn’t unforeseen circumstances be written in the contract or is it just assumed? If it is assumed then the trajectory of Neal’s scoring fell off the cliff the 2 months and that would be more of an accurate assessment of he would not have reached the 21 goals with a few games left.

hunter1909

defmn: Puljujarvi still isn’t interested in returning to play for the Oilers due to them not taking care of player’s health properly.

Let’s see…Sheldon Souray was run out of town over his health, Colton Teubert arrived via trade(that gave LAK missing pieces of a Cup winner) totally broken, Visnovsky had deep set health issues if I remember correctly while Ryan Whitney basically died the death of a Thousand Cuts on a nightly basis in front of the fans…

In short, the Hallmark of an uber-incompetent professional sports franchise. A bottom feeder for a team. A league-wide laughing stock.

Hard to blame JP on this evidence alone. There are other examples, to put it mildly.

Brantford Boy

One last comment on the prorated season aspect, aside from conditions met and bonuses… is there not at least one NHL player on an ELC that had the season went the distance would have played the 10 or 40 game mark? It just can’t be concluded that way…

Durag

It would be a landmark decision to conclude that ifs and buts are, in fact, candy and nuts

OriginalPouzar

As per Lowetide, via twitter, doesn’t look like Crawford will be on ice again today – that’s three days now and, frankly, he hasn’t skated with the team at all, during phase 2 or phase 3 – as far as “getting in to game shape”, even if he does return in time for the series, will he be ready?

hunter1909

OriginalPouzar:
As per Lowetide, via twitter, doesn’t look like Crawford will be on ice again today – that’s three days now and, frankly, he hasn’t skated with the team at all, during phase 2 or phase 3 – as far as “getting in to game shape”, even if he does return in time for the series, will he be ready?

Veteran players who have W’s in their portfolios are sometimes given every chance in the world particularly in a potential slaughter with McDavid+Draisaitl at large, under 25 and raring to go right from the drop of the first puck.

The reason being, Crawford has got enough muscle memory of NHL playoff success, that from Chicago’s pov hopefully he catches it during the first 2 games.

Imagine the Hawks with the 1OA pick wow they’d be right back.

Waiting for a cup

I have no idea who gets the Oilers 3rd pick and I am not a lawyer but I only see a few possible outcomes.

1. The Oilers keep the pick. Flames get nothing. The conditions of the deal were not met.
2. The Oilers keep the pick. The Flames get a compensation pick later in the draft. The odds of the conditions being met were high enough to warrant Calgary getting some type of relief.
3. The Oilers keep the 2020 pick and both teams agree to push the condition to the 20-21 season.

Reasoning:
* There is no chance that either the Oilers or Flames are going to agree to a win by the other team. Edmonton is not going to just allow Calgary to have the pick. Likewise, Calgary is not going to agree to Edmonton keeping the pick.
* If the NHL must arbitrate they will come somewhere in the middle. Edmonton will keep the pick because the conditions were not met and Calgary will get compensation. A pick in a later round.
* If Edmonton and Calgary do reach a settlement I hope it’s the case that they just push it for a season and we can have one more thing to discuss.

Personally I am hoping Edmonton wins the cup and the NHL awards Calgary the pick at the end on the third round as compensation. This would mean years of discussing who got the better player.

N64

–hudson–: With Lucic being 11 goals behind Neal, could the Oilers argue in a prorated season there are multiple universes where he closes that gap to 10 or less?

Sure. How many goals did Neal score in calendar year 2020? Project that for as many parsecs as you want.

Reja

Durag:
It would be a landmark decision to conclude that ifs and buts are, in fact, candy and nuts

Oh what a wonderful life that would be. There’s not a chance in hell that Holland coughs up our 3rd rounder to Calgary simply because they batted their puppy dog eyes to Gary. Not going to happen on old Dutch’s watch.

hunter1909

Waiting for a cup: Personally I am hoping Edmonton wins the cup and the NHL awards Calgary the pick at the end on the third round as compensation.

Finally a common sense solution I can get behind.

hunter1909

Reja: Oh what a wonderful life that would be. There’s not a chance in hell that Holland coughs up our 3rd rounder to Calgary simplybecause theybatted their puppy dog eyes to Gary. Not going to happen on old Dutch’s watch.

lol @ “Old Dutch”.

N64

Durag: It sets a precedent that you can project stats over the remainder of the season, which gives a lot of players an argument that they should be paid out on bonuses they fell short of.

flyfish1168: So how would this apply to players that just fell short of their bonuses in their contacts? NHL would be opening a big can of worms here

Hold on. There already are precedents for pro-rating for bonuses in shortened seasons and they were re-iterated in the arrangements for this year in the new CBA.

Trade conditions are totally different as the PA and grievance are not involved.. Any precedent here would only be for trades. Grievances set precedent on bonuses long ago.

Harpers Hair
Fuge Udvar

My hope is that they finally throw us a bone after screwing us with the “compensation” picks we gave up for Chiarelli and TMac. And I will take it as an omen that the dark cloud has finally lifted off the organization.

N64

OriginalPouzar:
LT, I can’t disagree that the flames may get the Oilers 3rd rounder but you don’t think that it just ends there and the Oilers don’t get an added pick at the end of round 3?

Personally, trying to be unbiased, I don’t think it makes sense that the flames get nothing but I also don’t think it makes sense if the Oilers give up the 3rd and get nothing back.Neither are “fair” and, no, i don’t buy in to the “trade condition didn’t vest” – the season was topped due to a force majeure – its not the same as “well, Neal could have been injured” – in my opinion.

There have been shortened seasons before and yet the Flames deal did not cover for that scenario.

Hawks did not know to cover for the scenario where the season ended early.

~ Can they have Robin Lehner back now that they are accidentally in the playoffs? ~

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar:
LT, I can’t disagree that the flames may get the Oilers 3rd rounder but you don’t think that it just ends there and the Oilers don’t get an added pick at the end of round 3?

Personally, trying to be unbiased, I don’t think it makes sense that the flames get nothing but I also don’t think it makes sense if the Oilers give up the 3rd and get nothing back.Neither are “fair” and, no, i don’t buy in to the “trade condition didn’t vest” – the season was topped due to a force majeure – its not the same as “well, Neal could have been injured” – in my opinion.

I think LT is on the record saying the simplest, most fair solution is awarding the Flames a compensatory pick at the end of the third round and letting the Oil retain their pick. He must not have a lot of faith in the NHL getting it right.

N64

Fuge Udvar:
My hope is that they finally throw us a bone after screwing us with the “compensation” picks we gave up for Chiarelli and TMac. And I will take it as an omen that the dark cloud has finally lifted off the organization.

Sure., And for handing off our bye to the Stars. Any millennia now.

digger50

Mike Green – anybody know if Mike was at greater risk, or was his family at greater risk of COVID related illness than the other players who chose to play?

defmn

flyfish1168:

Doesn’t unforeseen circumstances be written in the contract or is it just assumed? If it is assumed then the trajectory of Neal’s scoring fell off the cliff the 2 months and that would be more of an accurate assessment of he would nothave reached the 21 goals with a few games left.

As I have mentioned here before the main reason being given for this Stanley Cup tournament is economic liabilities the league would incur if they failed to complete the season BECAUSE they failed to include a clause recognizing the possibility of a catastrophic event prematurely ending the season.

And now they are going to give a draft pick to Calgary that did not fulfill the terms of the contract when they also did not protect themselves with such a clause?

Given the history of the NHL I won’t be surprised if they do but it lacks consistency of principle if they do.

JimmyV1965

flyfish1168: OP Interesting how you feel about this situation. So how would this apply to players that just fell short of their bonuses in their contacts? NHL would be opening a big can of worms here

Doesn’t unforeseen circumstances be written in the contract or is it just assumed? If it is assumed then the trajectory of Neal’s scoring fell off the cliff the 2 months and that would be more of an accurate assessment of he would nothave reached the 21 goals with a few games left.

IMO a player who was on pace to earn a bonus should be awarded the bonus. And there might maybe be a legal case if a player took this to court. OP would have a better informed opinion of course. However, in fairness to the team, I don’t think the bonus should apply to the team’s cap.

Durag

N64,

Thanks. I was not aware of that.

N64

JimmyV1965: IMO a player who was on pace to earn a bonus should be awarded the bonus

Woah, It went to grievance in the past and the precedents are there and new CBA follows that. Players gets $$$. Team stuck with the cap hit. Special one time option this year to spread out bonus overages over an extra year.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

defmn,

Well put. This accurately sums up my position on the matter. There were already clauses included in the conditions of the pick in the trade. Treliving didn’t include any kind of pandemic insurance so the pick shouldn’t get traded since the conditions didn’t vest. It’s really pretty simple. Any effort to compensate CGY is just mental gymnastics.

JimmyV1965

N64: Woah, It went to grievance in the past and the precedents are there and new CBA follows that. Players gets $$$. Team stuck with the cap hit. Special one time option this year to spread out bonus overages over an extra year.

Did not know this. Thanks 64.

ArmchairGM

Harpers Hair:
Makar, Hughes and Kubalik are the Calder finalists.

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2020/07/nhl-announces-finalists-for-2019-20-calder-trophy.html

No surprises there. I think Makar will win, but I’d vote for Hughes .

Ribs

Waiting for a cup: 3. The Oilers keep the 2020 pick and both teams agree to push the condition to the 20-21 season.

I suppose this is now an option as Mike Green sitting out means the conditions for the 2021 3rd round pick to Detroit cannot be met.

defmn

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
defmn,

Any effort to compensate CGY is just mental gymnastics.

Which we both know the league is capable and fond of but that doesn’t change the principle. Contracts allow for anything and everything to be agreed upon or excluded.

In common law anything which is not proscribed by law is considered outside the regulating process of law.

defmn

Ribs: I suppose this is now an option as Mike Green sitting out means the conditions for the 2021 3rd round pick to Detroit cannot be met.

Unless Detroit argues that without the pandemic Green would have fulfilled the terms of the clause and so they should get our 3rd next year.

I mean if we are going to insert the preamble “If the pandemic hadn’t shortened the season . . .” into every contract the club lawyers and the league lawyers are going to make a fortune arguing every case.

Ribs

defmn: Unless Detroit argues that without the pandemic Green would have fulfilled the terms of the clause and so they should get our 3rd next year.

I mean if we are going to insert the preamble “If the pandemic hadn’t shortened the season . . .” into every contract the club lawyers and the league lawyers are going to make a fortune arguing every case.

Haha, yes. What a mess.

N64

Ribs: I mean if we are going to insert the preamble “If the pandemic hadn’t shortened the season . . .” into every contract the club lawyers and the league lawyers are going to make a fortune arguing every case.

And yet it’s entirely reasonable to write in on shortened seasons. Not like Gary ever needed covid before to shorten a season.

Munny

The NHL wants Calgary and Edmonton to work this out between themselves. Fools.

I don’t see how Calgary can award a compensatory pick in the name of the NHL in return for the 3rd, Something like that would have to come from the Bettman Bunker.

I can see them agreeing on a swap of picks… our 3rd for their 4th, Or on a poorer pick… we send them a 5th. But I can’t see the compensatory pick being utilized unless this goes to some form of arbitration.

If this was in the real world, as Defmn and others above have asserted, there would be no award… although typically in the real world there would also be some clause which addresses things like suspension of business activity, non-performance, etc. And if it’s not in the contract…

Problem is this issue falls under the jurisdiction of the NHL, and their set of common and civil laws, with the NHL as the adjudicating body. And we all know how consistent and strong their sense of justice is.

Munny

defmn: I mean if we are going to insert the preamble “If the pandemic hadn’t shortened the season . . .” into every contract the club lawyers and the league lawyers are going to make a fortune arguing every case.

Precisely why this is true:

defmn: Contracts allow for anything and everything to be agreed upon or excluded.