Harvest Moon 2020 (Covid edition)

by Lowetide

It remains my favourite series of posts each year. Perhaps I’ll have a chance to write a Stanley Cup post some day that will surpass draft weekend, but for now it’s the best time on the blog for its author.

It begins on draft Friday with ‘Here Comes the Sun’ and then goes through a series (more than five less than 10) of “Oilers at” posts that offer quick details about the latest addition.

Finally, on Saturday night comes ‘Harvest Moon’ and an overview of the weekend’s procurement. The draft won’t happen until October, but there’s much to discuss from this draft already. Let’s have a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. I am proud to be part of The Athletic. Here are the most recent Oilers stories.

LOWETIDE PROJECTED WEEKEND

First round, No. 23 overall — RC Mavrik Bourque, Shawinigan (QMJHL). NHLE: 33.7. Fine skater, great passer, creative. He’s 5.10 176 and a quality prospect. Red Line compares him to Travis Konecny.

Second round, No. 54 overall —  L Martin Chromiak, Kingston (OHL). NHLE: 31.2 Skilled winger with speed, I don’t think Mysak lasts this long but Chromiak is a nice consolation.

Third round, No. 85 overall —  RW Alexander Pashin, Ufa (MHL).  NHLE: 15.6 Undersized, skill forward who is a bit under the radar.

Fourth round, No. 116 overall —  LW Oskar Magnusson, Malmo (SuperElite). NHLE: 25.9 .Fine prospect brings speed and a great shot. Undersized.

Fifth round, No. 147 overall — RD Thimo Nickl, Drummondville (QMJHL). NHLE: 18.2 Puck moving defenseman with some chaos.

Sixth round, No. 178 overall —  LW Eric JuhlinVasteras (SuperElite). NHLE: 17.7. Good shot, solid performance (13 goals in 36 games) at even strength.

Seventh round, No. 209 overall —  RD Mitch Miller, Tri-City Storm (USHL). NHLE: 16.6. Skilled defenseman, passing his greatest asset.

KEN HOLLAND’S 2020 DRAFT

First round, No. 23 overall — RW Jacob Perreault, Sarnia (OHL). NHLE: 32.5. He scored 39 goals in 57 OHL games. Sniper. Skilled. Red Line compares him to Jake DeBrusk. Great shot. Quick release.

Second round, No. 54 overall — TRADED for LW Andreas Athanasiou. After a bunch of trades that involved sending out Devan Dubnyk, Jeff Petry and Andrew Cogliano for second round picks or less, Holland’s decision to add Athanasiou for two seconds (another in 2021) hit a good spot for this observer. I don’t know if it’ll work out but I like the bet. Athanasiou can deliver immediately and is young enough to hang around for several years.

Third round, No. 85 overall —  TRADED for James Neal. No matter what happens here and I do believe the NHL will side with Calgary, this is a trade that made sense at the time. Holland would have been severely handcuffed with both the noxious buyout penalty and punitive ‘no movement’ aspect as it pertained to the expansion draft.

Fourth round, No. 116 overall —  TRADED for Mike Green. Edmonton received just one game and a little bit for this pick, but Green looked like an astute acquisition at the time. One assumes Holland feels he can trade back in to the top 100 overall.

Fifth round, No. 147 overall — RD Mason Langenbrunner, Eden Prairie High School. Young defenseman with the vital stats of a pencil (6.03, 170). He has the complete range of skills and is on his way to Harvard.

Sixth round, No. 178 overall —  G Calle Clang, Rogle (SuperElite). Big goalie with good results in league play and internationally, projecting goaltenders and where they’ll land is impossible in the era of ‘searching for giants’ but I like Clang’s resume a lot.

Seventh round, No. 209 overall —  LW Pavel Gogolev, Guelph Storm (OHL). He turned 20 in February, has passed through the draft twice and remains a dynamic offensive prospect. He represents exceptional value here (I have him No. 96) and should go earlier but you could have said that in 2018 and 2019, too.

JP

Aivis Kalniņš is reporting (here) that Jesse Puljujarvi has no interest in the KHL (an approach was made). I do think there’s a chance we see the big Finn dealt over the summer, perhaps for a NY Rangers selection. I’ve always said the Athanasiou acquisition looked like swapping in AA and would eventually see JP swapped out. I would not trade JP for picks.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN 1260, we hit the ground running with a great group of guests. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will talk new lines (Bruce won’t be pleased) and a few old timey items. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will tell us about the pain of Cole Custer going four wide at a Nascar race to win a race and explode a bet that looked good all day long. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Constant chatter at 10!

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€√¥£€^$

frjohnk: I was contemplating cutting cable and just buying Sportsnet now for a few months. Then I finally pulled the trigger and got Sportsnet Now. The next day, they shut down the season. .

But it turned out well. I watched a bunch of old games thru the service. Some on tv. Some on my phone with the app.

You can watch it live.

And they also have a replay section. I believe it shows games that were Streamed in the last 24 hours.
Currently they have rugby game, a blue jays rewind game from 16 and a blue jays instrasquad game on in this section.

I believe it’s $20 a month and you can cancel anytime.

Okay, from what I gathered I would be able to watch the same day, but I likely misunderstood.

Thank you

frjohnk

€√¥£€^$:
BornInAGretzkyJersey,

Okay, thanks.

Not being tech savvy, I thought streaming meant you can only watch games live.I’d read you could only go back 30 seconds, so I don’t know if you can watch “on demand”.

I was contemplating cutting cable and just buying Sportsnet now for a few months. Then I finally pulled the trigger and got Sportsnet Now. The next day, they shut down the season. ?‍♂️.

But it turned out well. I watched a bunch of old games thru the service. Some on tv. Some on my phone with the app.

You can watch it live.

And they also have a replay section. I believe it shows games that were Streamed in the last 24 hours.
Currently they have rugby game, a blue jays rewind game from 16 and a blue jays instrasquad game on in this section.

I believe it’s $20 a month and you can cancel anytime.

€√¥£€^$

BornInAGretzkyJersey,

Okay, thanks.

Not being tech savvy, I thought streaming meant you can only watch games live. I’d read you could only go back 30 seconds, so I don’t know if you can watch “on demand”.

N64

Brantford Boy:
Side,

Like N64… good grief…

Nope. Mentioned the Buibonic plague isn’t a moving target. As others have mentioned very treatable. Years ago there’d be the odd European traveler come back with it from an Arizona trip and the connection was made too late to the travel, but plague is about bottom of the list as a threat for a long time now.

N64

Brantford Boy:
N64,

Uh… more… thanks… I’ll make another drink…

OK that was gloomy. But sorry if any one’s betting on herd immunity we just don’t know if getting it a year later will be rare or typical. Coronaviruses in general seem to circle back.

But some good news, I’m done for the month. Keep safe.

N64

Brantford Boy:
N64,

Seems to me like you’ve been holding onto this like a loaded shotgun to release it for some time… ugh, thanks for the update… back to my vodka…

Actually Hunter reminded me of Pepys when he mentioned Dafoe. Though they showed up in survey courses, fortunately did not have to read either of them. That Pepys “tweet” was apparently his first diary entry when the plague hit his neighborhood. Sorry to disappoint but quote was just as new to me today.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

€√¥£€^$,

I cut the cord about five years ago. Was a great decision, haven’t looked back.

There are plenty of places you can watch the games online or you can pay for a streaming service through Sportsnet or the NHL. I use the former options which often are mirrors of the latter.

€√¥£€^$

So…..I cancelled our tv service a few months ago, the only reason I had it was for watching the hockey (it was really cheap because will live in a new development and Telus and Shaw trip all over themselves for new customers). I live in Calgary & am looking to be able to watch later, since I am driving for about 12 hrs on the 1st.

Any suggestions other than getting cable again?

Any suggestions are much appreciated

defmn

Munny:
giarc,

So shortened seasons had been previously contemplated.

Thank you. It was difficult to believe they hadn’t been.

Apparently, though, from all the rumours the league failed to insert such a clause into the contracts with their media partners.

Munny

giarc,

So shortened seasons had been previously contemplated.

Thank you. It was difficult to believe they hadn’t been.

Winahgahmee

Thanks for all you do LT and people. Man oh man it is slowly starting to get exciting just reading about hockey practice, ha ha. Tally ho!

giarc

Munny,

The CBA had force majeure clauses. Apparently the fact that the league never threatened to use it provided a lot of goodwill towards the players in the new The CBA negotiation. As the previous CBA was written it “grants owners the power to negotiate different salary figures for players in the event that the league suspends operations because of a “state of war or other cause beyond the control of the league or of the club.”

Munny

Considering that force majeure clauses are pretty common in the real world, I’d say the lack of one in NHL contracts and trade agreements is either laziness or hubris on part of either the NHL or it’s legal team.

The fact they didn’t think to include one in their massive TV contracts—on which they are existentially dependent for revenue—is revealing.

They know they have no defense against any plaintiff for non-performance due to Covid. There isn’t a court of law anywhere that would back the NHL… “well, it’s never happened to us before”.

But it has happened in other businesses and other sports. Ostrich heads buried in the sand is not a defense.

Unfortunately for the Oil, their case won’t be heard in a court of law, but by the very same idiots who thought these types of things were unnecessary in the first place.

#asscovering

dustrock

hunter1909:
HUNTER1909 2020 PLAYOFF DEATH MARCH™

TO JOIN THE HUNDREDS OF PREVIOUS AND CURRENT PLAYERS SIMPLY GO HERE:

https://oilersdeathmarch.com/playoffs-2020/

Free to play! It’s easy! It’s fun!

I love the optimism!

hunter1909

HUNTER1909 2020 PLAYOFF DEATH MARCH™

TO JOIN THE HUNDREDS OF PREVIOUS AND CURRENT PLAYERS SIMPLY GO HERE:

https://oilersdeathmarch.com/playoffs-2020/

Free to play! It’s easy! It’s fun!

OriginalPouzar

N64: Don’t know why you drag it back to covid. Shortened seasons are recent. Recent enough to have gone through cba grievance.

Trev’s lawyers should know better than to think that’s not a relevant contingency to cover. They did not cover it. Now they’re into asking Gary for something. Maybe he gives them something., Maybe he doesn’t

Of course I drag it back to Covid because that is the situation.

I 100% disagree with the latter paragraph. There was zero chance of a shortened season due to labor unrest, zero – the only reason a season has been cut short in 100 years.

Inserting a clause regarding the season being less than 82 games would not have been a reasonable consideration.

OriginalPouzar

BONE207: I like the view of: Neal didn’t get 21 & Luc didn’t get 11. Numbers are black and white. Projecting what could have been could also be taken from their previous 10 games in which Luc would have scored 5 more as well while Neal did not score any. Season ended due to unfortunate circumstances but that affected everyone. Did you & I get bonus payments or even a cheque saying this is what you likely would have made? What about the employees at the rink, the owner & teams. Covid fucked us all, let’s all suffer a little.

We can’t project that the conditions would have vest. We can’t project that they wouldn’t have. Each projection has a semblance of reasonableness. This is the normal trade parameter – the pick goes or it stays – doesn’t work in this instance – in my opinion.

To answer your question regarding bonuses, as they relate to NHL contracts, yes, the league is doing just that……

Profit

godot10,

The bubonic plague is endemic to the Western US. This is not new.

It is easily and successfully treated with Gentamicin and fluoroquinolones (as suggested by the CDC).

There’s a lot of things to worry about in 2020, but the plague isn’t one of them.

N64

OriginalPouzar: Any position that Treliving should have put in some sort of “shortened season” clause in to the trade condition is propagating a very biased view in my opinion.

Don’t know why you drag it back to covid. Shortened seasons are recent. Recent enough to have gone through cba grievance.

Trev’s lawyers should know better than to think that’s not a relevant contingency to cover. They did not cover it. Now they’re into asking Gary for something. Maybe he gives them something., Maybe he doesn’t

BONE207

dustrock: Yeah, I get that argument.There’s always the “slippery slope” argument for anything.

I get the attraction of “too bad, it was a pandemic, nobody’s fault but none of these were made so that’s it”, as it just ends the argument for all cases.

But if you were say Smith needing 1 more game to get a games played bonus, was it probable he would play one more game in the last 4-6 weeks?Probably, yeah.

I like the view of: Neal didn’t get 21 & Luc didn’t get 11. Numbers are black and white. Projecting what could have been could also be taken from their previous 10 games in which Luc would have scored 5 more as well while Neal did not score any. Season ended due to unfortunate circumstances but that affected everyone. Did you & I get bonus payments or even a cheque saying this is what you likely would have made? What about the employees at the rink, the owner & teams. Covid fucked us all, let’s all suffer a little.

Brantford Boy

Side,

Like N64… good grief…

OriginalPouzar

Reja: I agree just don’t get why so called fans are lobbying for us to lose the pic. If Holland loses this pick without putting up a fight to the death he should be fired on the spot and replaced with someone who has the better interest of the club at hand.

Noone is lobbying for the Oilers to give up the pick.

Of course I’d love for the league to rule that the pick stays and the flames get nothing. I don’t think that will happen because, trying to be non-biased, I don’t think that is equitable in the circumstances.

The above statement, to me, shows your opinion on the matter is based on Oiler bias and what is best for the Oilers.

I’d prefer what’s best for the Oilers but don’t think it’s the “right decision”.

Side

godot10: The Black Death hung around for a lot longer than a year.

2020 isn’t over.The Black Death has been found recently in Mongolia in animals and has killed a teenager.

And recently found in a squirrel in Colorado,

The plague has always been popping up but it is easily struck back down. It’s easily identified and treated.

Not sure why your posts related to diseases or infections are so fear mongering.

OriginalPouzar

BornInAGretzkyJersey: This is the mental gymnastics I was referring to earlier.The trade contract was clear and the conditions to transfer a third round pick were not met.Seems pretty clear cut to me.

I don’t agree its clear cut – my reasons are cited in this thread (and previous).

I think to deem it clear cut is a biased position.

Brantford Boy

N64,

Uh… more… thanks… I’ll make another drink…

OriginalPouzar

N64: The situations are different, but that’s not germane to whether or not there is an implied condition for season length.

Everyone agrees the NHL can do what they want. Everyone (I think) agrees the conditions were not met and won’t vest without the NHL intervening for whatever reasons rooted in whatever situation. Let’s not dress up this pig,

I believe that the NHL should intervene.

Taking off my Oilers-colored glasses, I don’t believe the black and white route is equitable in this circumstance.

Brantford Boy

N64,

Seems to me like you’ve been holding onto this like a loaded shotgun to release it for some time… ugh, thanks for the update… back to my vodka…

OriginalPouzar

N64: Actually the trade contract implies nothing about the length of the season. No more than it implies any other fact in the CBA. It’s for the league to decide that “fairness” means rewriting things.

Only Gary, his minions and the teams involved can rewrite the deal. Bit of a tell that Gary’s pointing to the teams and suggesting he’ll listen if they don’t agree. Suspect he won’t wade in at the end.

There hasn’t been a shortened season without labor stoppage in 100 years (I think) and there was no chance of a labor stoppage – I’m quite confident both Holland and Treliving made the deal with no thought that there teams would play less than 82 regular season games.

This is a very unique situation and there is no “right answer” in my mind.

OriginalPouzar

N64: NHL is free to make a bigger mess of it.

But they were free to put in conditions and easily could have contemplated shortened season. Not like there has never been one. No matter the cause, shortening is a general clause they reasonably could have written if protection desired.

Has there ever been a season cut short other than due to labor stoppage (which wasn’t an option this year) since 1919 and the Spanish Flu?

Any position that Treliving should have put in some sort of “shortened season” clause in to the trade condition is propagating a very biased view in my opinion.

godot10

hunter1909:
Having studied Defoe’s “Diary of the Plague Year” there are many many forms these pandemic viruses can take.

For example, everyone today assumes in 1665 Londoners all came down with a 3 day fever with blotchy skin which although was generally true there were multiple instances of people suddenly dropping dead on the spot showing no symptoms whatsoever.

The great Plague lasted approximately a year, then simply dissipated. The Flu epidemic of a century ago lasted a similar length of time, so its reasonable to expect the same time frame for this latest scourge to finally clear.

The Black Death hung around for a lot longer than a year.

2020 isn’t over. The Black Death has been found recently in Mongolia in animals and has killed a teenager.

And recently found in a squirrel in Colorado,

defmn

dustrock: Bouch bomb for the OT winner.Benson with 2 goals. dun dun DUN

Gotta love hearing the young guys aren’t just there for the entertainment.

I doubt anything they do changes lineups for opening night but stuff happens and coaches are paid to remember these things.

hunter1909

N64: Samuel Pepys would have been great on twitter:

@peeps123
tweeted April 30, 1665
Great fears of the Sickenesse here in the City. It being said that two or three houses are already shut up. God preserve us all

Parishes, that is, local areas used to keep a weekly death toll, that really could keep the death carts moving. In one instance the church needed to dig a tunnel so they could sneak all of the dead into their churchyard without causing a general panic.

N64

dustrock:
Regarding Mike Green, obviously we don’t know what we don’t know, but he did mention family reasons in his brief message on his decision not to attend, so if it’s not him, it’s likely someone in his family who already is or could be compromised.

Family reason is very wide open. Includes not fair to them for him to take on that personal risk.

digger50

Bruce McCurdy: Just last season, Green missed the first 9 games due to a virus that attacked his liver, then suffered a recurrence of the virus that cost him the last 17 games of that same 2018-19 season.

Surely puts him in a high-risk status. One can imagine him going to great lengths to avoid contracting another virus at this point.

I don’t know the whole story but I know enough to respect his decision. Sucks about that draft pick, though.

thanks Bruce.

I know he does not have to defend his decision, but a little bit of info such as this certainly allows a lot more empathy to his situation.

N64

hunter1909: then simply dissipated

Viruses just like to be different.
Plague leaves immunity.
Flu changes a lot to avoid immunity and there can be decades between pandemics.
Coronaviruses don’t leave as persistent immunity.
We wait.

dustrock

OriginalPouzar:
Gregor with a good summary of today’s scrimmage if anyone is interested:

https://oilersnation.com/2020/07/15/edmonton-oilers-training-camp-day-three/

Bouch bomb for the OT winner. Benson with 2 goals. dun dun DUN

dustrock

Regarding Mike Green, obviously we don’t know what we don’t know, but he did mention family reasons in his brief message on his decision not to attend, so if it’s not him, it’s likely someone in his family who already is or could be compromised.

dustrock

N64: “They played over seven minutes of 5×5 overtime”

~ They made it 7 minutes just to get Drai off the ice before the overtime periodended ~

ha ha ha 5/5

N64

hunter1909:
Having studied Defoe’s “Diary of the Plague Year” there are many many forms these pandemic viruses can take.

For example, everyone today assumes in 1665 Londoners all came down with a 3 day fever with blotchy skin which although was generally true there were multiple instances of people suddenly dropping dead on the spot showing no symptoms whatsoever.

Samuel Pepys would have been great on twitter:

@peeps123
tweeted April 30, 1665
Great fears of the Sickenesse here in the City. It being said that two or three houses are already shut up. God preserve us all

hunter1909

Having studied Defoe’s “Diary of the Plague Year” there are many many forms these pandemic viruses can take.

For example, everyone today assumes in 1665 Londoners all came down with a 3 day fever with blotchy skin which although was generally true there were multiple instances of people suddenly dropping dead on the spot showing no symptoms whatsoever.

The great Plague lasted approximately a year, then simply dissipated. The Flu epidemic of a century ago lasted a similar length of time, so its reasonable to expect the same time frame for this latest scourge to finally clear.

N64

Yep. There were a lot of questions about the bonuses today.

Main difference is that bonuses are settled by cba directly or by grievance.

Whereas trade conditions are settled as written unless the league wants to resettle them however they want tomorrow.

OriginalPouzar

N64: Of course there is. If they hadn’t settled that they’d be back to greivance procedures.

Zero to do with internal matters like rewriting contracts on the fly for any perceived reasons.

I know that – I was just responding to the specific question on those matters and advising that, yes, they are expressly dealt with.

N64

OriginalPouzar:
Gregor with a good summary of today’s scrimmage if anyone is interested:

https://oilersnation.com/2020/07/15/edmonton-oilers-training-camp-day-three/

“They played over seven minutes of 5×5 overtime”

~ They made it 7 minutes just to get Drai off the ice before the overtime period ended ~

OriginalPouzar

Apparently the Samorukov loaning to CSKA Moscow of the KHL wasn’t official – Oilers officially announced it today.

So happy Sammy will have a place to play this fall and continue his development.

Strong prospect.

N64

OriginalPouzar:

I don’t know if that puts him at any sort of great risk for COVID or risk of more serious effects if he contracts it.

Nor does he. Can’t expect studies specific enough to assign risk to his exact scenario. But where this thing gets nasty is week 2 immune system storm and week 3 blood embolisms. I’d run for the exits too if I had history of multiple liver infections. immune-blood-liver. yikes.

Update: Covid knocked a 19 yr old with mono into Calgary ICU:

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/scariest-experience-of-my-life-okotoks-man-becomes-youngest-icu-patient-in-alberta-from-covid-19-1.4897238

N64

OriginalPouzar:
For some reason I can’t copy to paste but there is a section on the MOU regarding pro-ration of games played for various matters – including the 10 and 40 games thresholds.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GoCQliLMXe5UU_k4xlDbNEUvWYt493bK/view

Of course there is. If they hadn’t settled that they’d be back to greivance procedures.

Zero to do with internal matters like rewriting contracts on the fly for any perceived reasons.

Side

OriginalPouzar:
Side,

Value add as always………..

I do my part.

hunter1909

OriginalPouzar: Well, not that it matters as its his right to opt out for any reasons but, yes, he has dealt with dangerous viruses in the past that have attacked his liver and required him to miss large chunks of hockey.

I don’t know if that puts him at any sort of great risk for COVID or risk of more serious effects if he contracts it.

It’s 100% a great risk. And as the worst stage of Coronavirus is death it’s not clear what you think is more serious than that.

so polar

Durag:
It would be a landmark decision to conclude that ifs and buts are, in fact, candy and nuts

This is my favourite comment this week.