I’ve been thinking about the Oilers farm system lately, especially the group who played for the Oklahoma City Barons. In the five years the team sent prospects to the Barons, there was a lot of disappointment (Tyler Pitlick, Curtis Hamilton), some strangeness (Toni Rajala) and a few impressive graduates (Brandon Davidson). The current farm team seems more substantial, more productive. I credit the organization for improving, as I always thought the players had some quality. Is that wrong?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer’s NHL ETA?
- DNB: Oilers’ missing pieces? Trade strategy? Breakout player? Mailbag
- Lowetide: 5 areas for Edmonton Oilers roster improvement in 2022-23
- DNB: Projecting Oilers’ opening-night roster
- Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Connor McDavid facing Hart Trophy voter fatigue?
- DNB: Ryan Murray, Dmitri Samorukov try to make up for lost time in fight to crack Oilers
- DNB: Dylan Holloway’s emergence for Oilers puts Jesse Puljujarvi’s future into focus
- Lowetide: Is this the year an Edmonton Oilers player wins the Calder Trophy?
- Jonathan Willis: Jakob Chychrun would look good on the Oilers, but is there a deal to be had?
- Lowetide: Oilers cuts headed to AHL Bakersfield. What will it look like?
- DNB: 10 observations from the first week of games
- DNB: Oilers’ Connor McDavid may have 50 goals in his reach, but a bigger goal remains
- Lowetide: How Jay Woodcroft’s Oilers training camp differs from previous coaches
- Lowetide: Are Edmonton Oilers’ recent trades supported by analytics?
- DNB: How Edmonton Oilers’ salary cap and training camp impacts roster decisions
- DNB: Darnell Nurse’s big-money contract with Oilers isn’t going to change who he is or how he plays
- DNB: 10 questions to address in training camp
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ right wing options on skill lines may be shifting
- Lowetide: The truth about Jesse Puljujarvi and the Edmonton Oilers
- DNB: Jack Campbell is determined to win in Edmonton: ‘I’m ready for this’
- Lowetide: Making the early call on Edmonton Oilers’ 2018 draft haul
- Lowetide: 9 Bold Predictions for the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Who will the Oilers trade for cap purposes?
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
OILERS PRESEASON GOALIE NUMBERS
- Calvin Pickard 3 games, .976 SP; 0.70 GAA
- Stuart Skinner 3 games, .943 SP; 1.91 GAA
- Jack Campbell 3 games, .915 SP; 2.38 GAA
- Ryan Fanta 1 game, .889 SP; 4.22 GAA
- Olivier Rodrigue 1 game, .889 SP; 2.00 GAA
The Oilers look much improved in this area for 2022-23, I like the Campbell bet, Skinner has done everything but establish himself in the NHL and Calvin Pickard looks like a more than capable No. 3 goaltender. In the five OKC Barons seasons, Laurent Brossoit was the great hope and he now has 106 NHL games on his resume. Tyler Bunz had some great numbers on his hockey card, but lost his career to injury. Is Stuart Skinner on track for a stronger career than Brossoit? I don’t know enough about goaltending to say.
CONDORS PRESEASON GOALIE NUMBERS
- Ryan Fanti 2 games, .955 SP; 1.03 GAA
- Olivier Rodrigue 2 games, .875SP; 2.89 GAA
I like the Fanti bet and am curious about his trajectory. We know his college numbers were excellent, but could say the same thing about Nick Ellis and Shane Starrett. Either way, a solid bet by the organization and we’ll see how he shines this year.
OILERS PRESEASON DEFENSE NUMBERS
Small sample size alert on all of these things, I’m pleased to see Evan Bouchard performing so well. Bouchard, Tyson Barrie, Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci and Brett Kulak all posted numbers that would be considered rock solid in the regular season. Among the rest, Ryan Murray showed well, but Jason Demers’ math is less enthralling than the eye test. Among the prospeccts, Markus Niemelainen impressed but the actual numbers are a different story. Philip Broberg’s totals aren’t terrible, but I have no quarrel with him going to Bakersfield for a time if it comes to it.
CONDORS PRESEASON DEFENSE NUMBERS
Mike Kesselring is stepping up and emerging as a real prospect, Yanni Kaldis is quite dynamic in the AHL (I loved watching him last season despite the chaos in his game). Alex Peters and Darien Kielb are capable defenders at this level and Phil Kemp remains a solid shutdown option.
The Oklahoma City Barons produced a pile of defensemen in five years, led by Jeff Petry, Oscar Klefbom, Justin Schultz, Jordan Oesterle, Brandon Davidson, Martin Marincin and Brad Hunt. For the Condors, Evan Bouchard is the headliner, with Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and William Lagesson the second gen. I think the group we’re seeing now, led by Philip Broberg, will be substantial.
OILERS PRESEASON FORWARDS
Dylan Holloway is the lead story here, posting strong totals (all of these numbers are at even strength for the NHL players) and a nice goal differential. The top end players all performed well, the Nuge and Kailer Yamamoto didn’t score but if either goes three games without an even strength point there won’t be an investigation. I like Jesse Puljujarvi’s totals, doubt he’ll get credit and he did much of the damage late, but those are numbers that reflect an NHL player.
This is the secondary group. Noah Philp showed well, but James Hamblin was the story here. He’s stilln with the team for crying out loud! It’s a solid group, most all heading to the minors now. A few surprises, including Matttias Janmark being waived and Tyler Benson getting hurt. The young winger was having his best training camp, including a goal-scorer’s goal in Winnipeg.
CONDORS PRESEASON FORWARDS
Some unfamiliar names here (Boudens, Dove-McFalls) although there is some draft pedigree in these names. I like the fact Xavier Bourgault has had success (his point came on the power play, those totals are all disciplines) and Tyler Tullio, too. I wrote at The Athletic about Reid Schaefer and his variety of skills, and the fact the organization seems to be using younger players in special teams rotations. It can be important, especially for a player like Tullio.
I always thought the Barons development of forwards lagged, mostly because they gave up on Teemu Hartikainen (I talk about him in the book) and others. Among the notables who played for the OKC team and then became NHL players are Chris VandeVelde, Tyler Pitlick, and we’ll credit Magnus Paajarvi and Anton Lander even though they endured a serpentine development time line.
The Condors sent Jujhar Khaira, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan McLeod, with Dylan Holloway arriving now. It may be as simple as slow-playing talent enough to get them time in the AHL, but it sure feels like the pipeline is more productive now.
@DNBsports
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10m
Oilers’ Devin Shore had cleared waivers. He and Leon Draisaitl hugged in the dressing room. Shore mock cheered and said, “No one wants me!”
Shore said the last 24 hours were stressful, adding he likes the hockey situation with the Oilers. He and his family really wanted to stay.
@DNBsports
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3m
Jay Woodcroft said it was a good sign that Kailer Yamamoto was on the ice today. He added it’s too soon to say if Yamamoto will play in Wednesday’s season opener vs. VAN.
—————————–
If Yamo can’t go on Wed, we may see the team go 11/7 to start or send down Broberg and call up Hamblin.
Pat Maroon mic’d up during practice talking with Corey Perry
Perry: I need 96 more goals
Maroon: For what? 1,000 points?
Perry: 500 goals
Maroon: You better get off my line bud
He’s self deprecating but he’s also constantly needling his own guys all practice. It’s like a learned response, he gets in a rink and he has to start giving guys the gears. Team mates, opponents, whoever. Just has to do it.
As I pointed out in September during the Verboten PTO, the Oilers don’t have much in the way of experienced cover for NHL injury at RW down in Bako. Or for a possible trade-out from the position.
And Voldemort, our auditioning RWer, didn’t have the magic any more and was released. The trade to bring in Kostin looks to me like a good solution to RW depth, while dealing from organizational strength. Graceful rebalancing of the Kelly photo..
With Murray signed, Broberg and Niemo pushing, and Demers still hanging around on the sidelines, D depth is present and accounted for. With Pickard surviving waivers, G depth is as solid as it has ever been this millennium. The Leftorium now haunts the forwards, and there are 6 Cs on the varsity squad, with reasonable cover in Bako,
This is how good organizations do it, my friends. I don’t think this is a Cup year and there is still the cap to deal with, but we’re damn close, a contender, and well-prepared for what the future may bring. Because you never know…
Question……
Can a player be assigned to the AHL but never leave town and skate with the NHL team at practice? Basically could you waive Shore/Janmark and assign him to Bakersfield but the player stays in town and skates as a de facto 13th forward who could be called up and activated if necessary?
No, if assigned they cannot participate in any NHL team matters.
OK but you can see why teams are moving their AHL teams close by. Little benefit keeping millions of dollars of cap in the PB eating popcorn. Optimally I’d run 22 as a contender – with call-ups nearby – and use the extra money on the ice.
Ugh:
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
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1h
Chad Drown, the head athletic trainer for the Bakersfield Condors (the Oilers’ AHL affiliate), has been fired after being charged with felony offences related to contacting a minor to commit a sexual offence in California.
Quote Tweet
Edmonton Oilers
@EdmontonOilers
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1h
We are working closely with Bakersfield Condors management & fully support the decision to relieve Mr. Drown of his duties. twitter.com/Condors/status…
Statement from the Condors:
https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1579302080921362432
I don’t love this trade only because Samorukov still seemed like an unknown with a potential to pop, where I read Kostin as more of a bust that needs to reinvent his game to be successful.
Still – a return of a former first round pick for Dima beats the oilers old strategy of burning their prospects into ash. 1
Well they’re the same age and from the same draft.
You could look at it as: winger who played 40 games for a 109 point team last year traded for a Dman who played 1 game for a 104 point team last year.
I also hear what you’re saying, and it’s too bad to see Samorukov go. We’ll have to wait and see if either or both make steps from where they are today.
Also agreed, it could definitely be worse.
A decent hockey trade that may or may not work out for us, but it does fill and area of need (RW) from an area of over-supply (LD). We can also ice a big fast set of forwards when necessary
Kane McD JP
RNH Drai Hyman
Fog Mac Yamo
Holloway Shore Kostin
Doesn’t this guy scream ideal 4th line RW?
http://puckiq.com/players/8476410?player=8476410&season=all&tier=Gritensity&group_by=player_season_team
http://up.com/blues-players-standing-out-2022-23-preseason/
A Fancy Dan for the fourth line? Like LT, I’ve always been a little Leivo curious. I’m sure there’s a reason he’s never become an NHL regular, but I think he needs a 6th opinion.
I’ve may have lost the plot regarding the cap, but I believe with his 750k hit you can hypothetically claim him and just waive Malone to remain cap compliant. Benson would have to go on LTIR, I think.
Take Foegele-Ryan-Leivo for a test drive.
Why not, right? Verboten was schrecklicht, but because he once was coveted he was given an opportunity despite all the concerns and question marks. Leivo has been good in depth roles and is “too good” for the AHL. He was impressive by all accounts at the Blues training camp, so I bet some team will pick him up.
Nov 16 the Mikey Anderson return game. Might be some excitement.
I’ve got my copy yesterday. Great read so far but feels strange reading LT’s words without the white font.
I heard that on season LTIR is less restrictive than preseason LTIR.
Not sure the difference but if they left Benson on the submitted roster then put him on LTIR does that give them a chance to accrue some cap on a daily basis if they get below the submitted roster cap?
No, their adjusted cap accrue limit will be set when they place Smith/Klefbom on LTIR tomorrow.
Happy Thanksgiving LT and everyone!
The wife put her foot down with her family and declared turkey was on the menu. They usually do an untraditional main protein and let’s just say I couldn’t be more proud of the misses.
Apart from the trade and waiver wire, it feels like the calm before the storm. Couldn’t be more excited for Wednesday, but this Pacific division looks stronger than last year.
I’m proud of her, too!
Summarizing!
Stats are hard to come by, as it seems they’re not a priority for non-conference games. Judging by the highlight clips I found on Twitter, it didn’t appear that Brind’Amour was involved in the scoring.
Very strange, I’ve never seen that in 6 years following NCAA hockey.
G Connor Ingram and RHD Madison Bowey would be great pickups on the waiver wire. They are super low cap hits at $725k, and $733K. They’d be great cover for injury.
It would be nuts to claim Ingram because it would force the Oilers to waive Skinner.
Which of the top seven D would you waive to claim Bowey?
How so? Presumably the other team would claim back if the Oilers then waived for cover. Unless you just mean generally speaking.
I thought about that when I replied to the waiver wire list below, thing about claiming Ingram is we’d have to run three goalies and we can’t afford it. Or as godot says, waive Disco Stu, which I’m not in favour of; he’s earned his chance. If he’s found wanting later in the season, it would appear that Ingram would be available in a trade.
Bowey was an interesting prospect one or two teams ago, but I think he’s basically a right handed Lagesson at this point.
Sounds like you don’t like Skinner. Why?
Reading is hard.
Well, the biggest reason I thought this was a good idea was because I don’t know what I’m talking about. I should really read the waiver rules. I didn’t realize that you have to keep your waiver claims on the NHL roster all year. Which, I guess, is the whole purpose. So… Ummm… Nevermind. Move along nothing to see here.
1)
I’ve been on this for a few days and think its a legit option. If they are going to assign Broberg after tomorrow, I’m leaning towards assigning Broberg and Malone and not bringing up a D right away but Janmark. Janmark/Ryan/Foegele as the 4th line is UNREAL forward depth.
2)
I don’t imagine an NHL game for him ever but I think there is a decent chance they’ll try and sign him to an AHL deal after the season.
3)
There is some talk of signing him to a 2-way deal and having him start in the AHL – there could be a cap structuring cap number for that contract as well.
Remember, he went 0-4 goals in one game which I’m sure skews his numbers.
With that said, after a month or two, I think Mike Kesselring could be talked about as the RD injury fill in option. It may be too soon but I’m not sure Demers is any more reliable at this stage of his career.
4)
They don’t revert to the previous team – they simply go back on waivers and, contrary to popular belief, the prior team does NOT have a ROFR but if they get to claimed by the prior team in the normal waiver order, they can assign them to the AHL.
5)
No, its probably not given the amount of injuries the team will no doubt have.
You are right about regular IR – no cap relief. If Nuge tweaks a shoulder and is out for 2 weeks, no ability to call anyone up due to no cap space. If this happens to a few players they could/would be forced to play with a short lineup which then gives the ability to call up an $850K or less player but, damn, that doesn’t seem sustainable.
6)
I’m a Samorukov guy but why is he “something” and Kostin “nothing”?
Kostin has a better shot at the NHL lineup in the near future doesn’t he? I mean Sammy is battling with Niemo and behind Broberg as far as 3LW (with Nurse and Kulak locked in ahead for term).
I don’t think this is about saving a few grand of cap space, its about a ton of tweeter LD depth and not as much tweeter RW depth.
interesting, so Calgary is stuck with his contract if nobody claims him and clears to the AHL.
Now we just need Tippett and Playfair to coach the Blues when the Oilers play them and it’s all gravy.
I like the trade, Kostin could surprise🤞🏽
Happy Thanksgiving LT and to all around the the board.
You too, Bill.
FYI, Kostin was waived the same day as Sammy. He didn’t take a single draw in preseason and did spend a second on the PK. He scored vs Minnesota, but played the least of anyone dressed that game. He was also played sparingly on the PP.
It looks like he was given top 6 minutes in the 7-0 loss to Columbus, but I think the Blues had made their mind up on him early, based on usage where he played the 2nd lowest minutes in all the other games, from what I can see.
Perhaps we’ve found a more physical Nichushkin. Heavy shot, hits, large frame with good skating. I think, like Sammy, he just ran out of track in St. Louis. Holland is hoping Kostin can quickly show his stuff and bring an element the Oilers lack. Other than Schaefer and Jesse, there are no other big-bodied wingers in the organization. Kostin has wheels and fits in with the fast team Kenny has built.
Hopefully he proves himself quickly in Bakersfield.
For the record his FO % is 50, but he’s only taken 4 draws in 46 games.
I disagree that there are “no other big bodied wingers in the organization”. I would argue there is one on the first line, riding shotgun with McJesus, and he’s fixing to score 40 goals this year.
Sure
In NHL’18, in any Be A GM season I played, I picked Kostin up because he always turned into a star player. Always ended up as my top scoring winger. Maybe he pops and turns out to be an NHLer, maybe he goes back to Russia next year.
This reminds me of Craig McTavish saying he bumped into Nurse in the bathroom at the draft…figured it was serendipitous and proceeded to draft him.
Nurse’s Grandpa iirc
All of the waivers:
https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1579173421581496320/photo/1
Shore and Malone on that list for those averse to clicking on the link
Wow, there’s some interesting names on that list. A few that caught my eye include:
Gravel was Oiler property in 2019… for one year. Went from LA to Edmonton 1/11/2018, then from Edmonton to Toronto 1/11/2019, according to Elite Prospects. I thought his name was familiar!
Mark Jankowski still hanging around
I hope CGY drafts more like him in future first rounds, developed through D+6 with little to show for the effort.
https://youtu.be/ToXGVcrgNZA
All the young dudes
I’m surprised no one has mentioned that Valimaki is now a Yote.
That’s pretty poor asset management by Calgary.
In the short term, he is a placeholder for Benson while he is on LTIR. Same salary (750000) none of the remaining fringe forwards remaining on the roster as of today can be squeezed in under the cap if you are looking at a 21 man roster of 12 F 7 D 2G. I expect this might also be a safe fallback if they have plans to quickly move Janmark for losing the additional 125000 cap hit he incurs when he is buried but need an option if the attempt is unsuccessful. Moving Janmark means someone like Hamblin or Shore can be added instead of Kostin and still be under the cap, giving a bit more roster flexibility.
In this scenario, they run 11/7 until Benson can return, and then send Kostin to AHL for no Cap impact. If of course the plan is to try and trade Janmark to gain 125000 of cap for the buried player, then possible Kostin can go to AHL to make room for Hamblin or Shore as F #12. Makes the forwards earning above 762500 available for recall without running into the cap limit.
Well that makes it tougher for Noah Philp. Hamblin too.
I think the new guy is mostly a RW.
Why do you think that?
This is correct
Or maybe winger is more accurate. It doesn’t look like he takes face offs in the NHL. I could be wrong.
He doesn’t. I looked it up too. 4 FOs in 40 games. Not a C.
Didn’t even in the KHL. Not sure about AHL or the Jrs.
My dream season, in order of events;
Bob Nicholson resignation
Puljujarvi earning a 5×5 contract by January
Winning the Pacific
Winning the Cup
Holland moving up to President
Rob Vollman becoming the Oilers GM
Oilers win the cup and it gets 10 down votes? Hahah
I know the name, but not much about the player. Here are some scouting reports on Kostin prior to the draft.
Source: https://www.thedraftanalyst.com/2017-nhl-draft-headquarters/2017-draft-profiles/rw-klim-kostin/
Source: https://lastwordonsports.com/2017/04/15/klim-kostin-scouting-report-2017-nhl-draft-17/
Source: https://lowetide.ca/2017/06/23/here-comes-the-sun-2017-draft-edition/
Source: https://lowetide.ca/2019/07/30/summer-of-17/
The kid was born to be an Oiler LoL
This is why I have no more interest in prospects. Prospects so often seem to get injured then never recover so why waste my time worrying to start with?
And so many of these scouting writeups are over the top optimistic.
Kostin has been playing the AHL for 4-5 seasons, without much in the way of progress to show for it.
I suspect both players will be in the KHL next season.
He just turned 23. He started playing in the AHL at the age of 18, while most players don’t start there until 20. Add to that with a May birthday he is at the younger end of the players in his draft season. Only 49 players from his draft year have played more NHL games than he has so he is only slightly behind having been a 31st overall selection. He is a year younger than Tyler Benson and has played 10 more NHL games. Might be too soon to write him off yet. Seems to have the physical tools (size, speed and a shot), but does he have the drive and smarts to make that last step permanent.
Thanks for digging all this up for us all.
Fine work and much appreciated.
Pretty good read from the other side of the deal:
https://www.stltoday.com/sports/hockey/professional/klim-kostin-traded-josh-leivo-placed-on-waivers-by-blues/article_e4903f1f-a2fd-521c-bdce-c142bdd0c96b.html
Source: https://thehockeywriters.com/blues-kostin-roster-spot-bottom-6-competition/
On first glance, this Klim guy scores a ton of goals for a shitty depth Dman.
He put up 5g in his first 46 NHL games, nothing to sneeze at…he also put up 4g in a 16 game AHL playoff run last year, 5g in a 24 game KHL playoff run the year before, and he’s put up 32g in 198 AHL games.
That’s a shit ton of goals for a Dman….Who is this guy?
A forward.
That explains it lol
Have you… watched him play?
😉
Touche, haven’t noticed him, has he played against the oil, played in the playoffs, or any international tournaments? Doesn’t look like it
Played for Team Russia twice in the World U18, Once in the Ivan Hlinka, and twice in the World U20. He managed to score 14 goals and 30 points in total for Russia in 28 games played. In just the World U20, he put up 14 points in 12 games.
A left shot RW with size and physicality
My guess is they don’t think he has a future with the oilers and they don’t want him playing in front of other young players in Bakersfield
What LHD would he have blocked in BAK?
My guess is they like him as a 4C more than Sammy as depth D.
He is not a centre.
Klim Kostin’s middlename is Sergeyevich. That’s good.
That’s a Slavic patronymic convention-it means his father’s name is Sergei.
It’s a good thing his father’s name was not Konstantin.
Because of the initials, or the way it (doesn’t) roll off an anglophone’s tongue?
That made me laugh thx
PuckPedia
@PuckPedia
The #LetsGoOilers could keep Kostin (750K) in minors and Malone (762.5K) on roster through Monday’s submission. Then subsequently they could flip them & gain 12.5K cap space.
11:22 AM · Oct 9, 2022
This strikes me as an odd trade to make to save a measly 12.5K in cap space. Sammy already cleared waivers. Why trade him for essentially nothing after investing years in his development? Strange.
Player might have been ready to pack his bags and head home for higher paycheque
That was my first thought as well.
Sammy moved to Edmonton for the summer and gave it his best shot to make the team. It didn’t work. It could have been the same for Kostin in St. Louis for all we know.
A second opinion for both guys that maybe find themselves in a better situation for what they bring.
Also asset management by Kenny
I have long asserted the Oilers wasted draft picks because they would OBVIOUSLY sour on prospects and keep them until they had no value
Pre Holland post Lowe rarely did well with Russian players – no point drafting them if you basically can’t figure them out
Samu did what he could but got passed by Bro and Niems. Very astute to give him another shot in a fresh environment (for his sake as well – solid respect for the player) and get a different type of prospect you can hopefully develop
Definitely worth a flyer on Kostin. IF he gets it together that is a rare type of player. Edmonton seems likely a better fit as the Blues come across as still a hard ass style org to me
THE CONTEST FORMERLY KNOWN AS DEATH MARCH™:
now known as – HUNTER1909’S OILERS DYNASTY MARCH™
Here is how it works.
Same rules same everything and all of the previous records will be retained for posterity.
Here is how to play: Predict the total points that Oilers finish the season with.
Tie breakers:
a) – How many points Connor McDavid gets
b) – how many goals Leon Draisaitl scores
c) – Where Oilers finish(1-16th in the West)
Deadline: Puck drop @ Game 6 Pittsburgh
To Recap:
1 – Predict Oilers final regular season point total
2 – Connormcdavid points
3 – leondraisatl goals
4 – oilers finish in the West(1-16)
Sammy traded.
https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-trade-defenceman-dmitri-samorukov-to-st-louis-blues-for-forward-klim-kostin
damn.
The #Oilers have acquired centreman Klim Kostin from St. Louis in exchange for defenceman Dmitri Samorukov. Kostin was drafted 31st overall in 2017 & has scored 11 points (5 goals, 6 assists) in 46 career NHL games.
Sail on, Guelph Storm.
Regarding the new acquisition, how much is he…Kostin’?
Klim pickens, Tarkus
An aside, amigo… is your Alias an ELP nod by choice? Big fan of ELP.
Funny St Louis trades for him after they were witness to his “first two NHL shifts”
What’s that now? Holy
dmonton Oilers
@EdmontonOilers
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55s
https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f501.svg 𝗧𝗥𝗔𝗗𝗘 𝗔𝗟𝗘𝗥𝗧 https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f501.svg
The #Oilers have acquired centreman Klim Kostin from St. Louis in exchange for defenceman Dmitri Samorukov. Kostin was drafted 31st overall in 2017 & has scored 11 points (5 goals, 6 assists) in 46 career NHL games.
—–
Of note, just like Sammy, he’s already passed through waivers so can be assigned easily.
I don’t think this changes anything vis-a-vis the opening roster submission of Wed’s lineup.
Opening roster submission deadline is 3 eastern tomorrow. I think this is easy and locked. I presume they want Broberg on that roster (as they should) which means there is no cap room for Shore or even Hamblin – Malone is the only option for 12F that fits the cap.
I presume Shore is waived today, Hamblin is assigned prior to the deadline and Benson is placed on LTIR along with Smith and Klefbom.
——
Now, for the game on Wed night, they could stick with the roster and could either have (a) Broberg scratched or Murray scratched and go traditional 12/6 or potentially have Malone sitting with Broberg as a 7D – ease him in with sheltered minutes to give him some more leash after a “meh” camp performance. This is not ideal but Manson was able to get all d-men 10-plus minutes when they went 7D last season.
They could also send Broberg down, as somewhat speculated, along with Malone with gives them the cap room to bring either Niemelainen or Samorukov up along with Shore or Hamblin, as they choose.
——-
Other potation option, which came to be last night is to send Malone and Broberg down and call up only Janmark. Sure, its only a 20-man roster but they know everyone is healthy for Wed and they don’t play again until Sat – lots of time to call up a d-man for Sat if needed (with Janmark back down).
Is that not the “best lineup”?
Kane/McDavid/Jesse (or Yamo)
Holloway/Drai/Hyman
Nuge/McLeod/Yamo (or Jesse)
Janmark/Ryan/Foegele
Nurse/Ceci
Murray/Bouchard
Kulak/Barrie
Campbell
Skinner
Tweak the deployment as you wish but, holy hell, that forward group is unreal!
Agreed on paper
Top 6 is fantastic
Bottom 6 needs to score
The only proven scorer as of late is Yamo and I have my doubts, given his drag on line stats typically and long cold streaks, he would be a scorer bottom 6 – no elite play drivers there although McLeod may take another step he hasn’t yet taken
I like the players, but they as a group have yet to do it outside of heaters
I’m always hopeful though this time of year
Kane – McDavid – Yamamoto
McLeod – Draisaitl – Hyman
Holloway – Nuge – Puljujarvi
Foegele – TBD – Ryan
Holloway isn’t going to surprise other teams the way he did early on in TC. Let him ease into the regular season.
McLeod and Hyman are two forechecking demons. They will turn a lot of pucks over for Draisaitl in the offensive zone.
And what can I say, McDavid & Kane just like playing with Yamamoto. You can see it on their faces.
4C still not clear imo.
Nurse – Ceci
Murray – Bouchard
Kulak – Barrie
2nd pair/3rd pair pretty much interchangeable in how you rank them. Both pairs will get about the same minutes depending on how they are going. I expect to see a fair amount of 11/7 early in the season.
If all those forwards remain Oilers, and healthy, I’d be very tempted to run McLeod as 4C (or 10F).
With Foegele-Puljujarvi or Holloway-Foegele flanking Nuge.
If they do run 11 forwards, McLeod is pretty much the ideal player as extra since he can take reps at C and W, and plays both special teams.
That could work as well. My main thought is to let Holloway break in on the 3rd line to start the season. Let him ease in a little bit.
Do they sign Demers?
The lines will/can be fluid, so I don’t have an issue if Holloway starts with Draisaitl-Hyman, but easing in definitely isn’t a bad thing either.
Demers, I think yes.
I was saying that looked likely before Samorukov was traded, and now some more of the depth is gone.
If the plan is to send Broberg down, having a 34-year old in the PB rather than a waiver eligible 24-year old is probably a smart play.
1) Yup, Skinner is tracking very well. Fairly confidant his floor right now, today, is serviceable 25 game back-up to Campbell but there is a non-zero chance he shows a Husso-like pop. His last few years of pro hockey are tracking ahead of where Husso was at the same stages (and at a younger age). This season for Skinner lines up with last season for Husso in that development timeline (at a younger age) – high ceiling is a Husso type season.
2) I posted a few days ago that Barrie had a dynamic offensive exhibition season – a really nice pass for his apple, a bomb shot goal and a sinpe goal. He was MUCH better as a 2-way player after Manson arrived. I’ve said for a while that he isn’t a bad defensive player in the defensive zone but his issues are mental mistakes at the offensive blue and in the neutral zone that lead to odd-man rushes against. Those were vastly limited after the coaching change – could be direct on Barrie as well as the empmshis on the forward support on the backcheck. Either way, Barrie is poised for big contributions this season in my opinion. He’s started slow each season as an Oiler, I wonder if he “hits the ground running” this season.
3) Demers went 0-4 goals in one game – I presume that cratered his overall numbers given the small sample of exhibition.
4) No access to the AHL exhibition games so I haven’t been able to watch but it seems Kesselring how picked up where he left off at main camp. I posited a few weeks ago that he’s popping (and have speculated on that coming for two years) and he will soon pass Deharnais as a legit option for RD call-up. His ceiling is NOT low.
5) I would suggest that Jesse doing “much of his damage late” is a good thing – the later games have the tougher comp, even if still not close to an actually NHL game.
6) I don’t understand if the coaches are locked on that Nuge/McLeod combo, let alone the trio with Foegele. That trio didn’t score a goal together and I don’t think that line looked great overall during exhibition season. I’m not adverse to McLeod at 4C with both special teams and I definitely think that Jesse Puljujarvi is a better 3RW option than Warren Foegele who could easily play 4LW.
Concur 100% especially on points 5 and 6:)
Is Stuart Skinner on track for a stronger career than Brossoit? I don’t know enough about goaltending to say.
===================
I don’t know anything about goaltending but I do have a few things I look for and a few things I think are just noise.
The noise, for me, are the Sa% and GAA unless they are spectacular or spectacularly bad.
In the NHL last year of goalies who played 35 games or more Shesterkin was the only one with a save % that stood out from the pack. The next 21 goalies were all in a clump from .925 to .910 which comes out less than half a goal per game if he plays 50 games – a reasonable number for a starter.
Now I know half a goal a game can determine a swing in wins and losses but I also know that more goals come from defensive breakdowns than goalie error when talking about competent NHL goalies so making decisions based upon save % alone is not something that has a lot of meaning for me. The GAA even less so. It is mostly a team stat imo.
There is one number that I think says more about a goalie than any other and that is the number of shutouts that he gets during the season. I cannot defend that in any way, shape or form so I just put it down to my superstition but if a goalie is not in the top half of the league for shutouts during a season I regard it as a red flag and I have found that to be true far more often than not over the years.
Playing goal is an unforgiving position. You can play fourth line RW or 3LD for some years in the NHL with stone hands. You can make a nice career for yourself back checking or blocking shots or winning board battles but goalies don’t have the luxury of a single weakness. The scouting is too good. You can have a glove hand that can catch a fly 10 times out of 10 but if you can’t close the five hole you are doomed because nobody is going to shoot high to your glove side.
And this is my long winded way of getting around to saying that I think Skinner is going to be just fine in goal this year because he doesn’t have a noticeable weakness.
He may be only average (I don’t know) but he doesn’t let in soft goals. He is predictable in saving the shots that an average NHL goalie is expected to save. I am pretty sure on this.
I have no idea on Campbell because I haven’t seen him enough to know anything other than that he has a very good glove hand. But, again, it isn’t what a goalie is really good at that makes him successful so much as what he isn’t very good at that makes him a liability.
I think we will be fine in goal.
You may find this useful.
https://www.moneypuck.com/goalies.htm
Thanks, but not really my thing. With goalies I am 95% eye test.
Some goaltenders look great because they make easy shots look hard.
Others look pedestrian because they make hard shots look easy.
The data susses that out.
Your opinion. Models are not reality and that is all that site does. It models into categories.
This is a great post. Lots to chew on in here.
I agree with your take on Shutouts. Its a team stat for for sure, especially if its a game where you eliminate cross-seam scoring chances. But there’s something about a goaler nailing perfection that lets you know they were on it. If you’re top half of the league in shutouts over a five year stretch you’e the goods.
For Campbell the key will be not overplaying him. The Leafs love overplaying their goaltenders. Its been a thing for all the Shanahan years and has spanned four different coaches. They do not balance roles. Campbell started last year fire for the Leafs but in November and early December they ran him ragged. Once he got injured his play was rough in Jan/Feb, but he recovered down the stretch. Played fine in the first round. I’ve also got this unshakable belief that the Leafs (and Florida) play a head scratchingly loose defensive game at times. My theory is that the forwards are so dominant that it skews the on-ice metrics of the defense.
I see why Kenny went after Campbell and I’m ok with the bet. But its still the highest risk one made this offseason. Campbell’s track record isn’t that long and he had a terrible stretch of play that TO was able to outscore. That said his numbers say he’s a perfectly average NHL goalie with some upside potential if his minutes are handled well. He’s a “grinder,” took his time getting to the NHL, got cast off in Toronto so has a bit of a chip to play against. I can see why Kenny loves the guy. And the Oilers are committed to developing Skinner alongside him.
This isn’t a perfect signing by any means. But its a reasonable bet, in the context of another reasonable bet of developing your in-house goalie. The cost for both is very reasonable.
When I peak at the Oilers schedule I see 9-12 reasonable bets for Skinner to get a start through the end of December. Need to keep Soup fresh for that stretch run in Feb through March. A lot of hockey gets played there.
Very good post. I believe you have it right when you talk about obvious weaknesses and tendency for soft goals. this has always been my metric for evaluating goalies – it’s not so much the big saves they make but the weak goals they let in…
at this point watching Campbell and Skinner I see no obvious weaknesses
Honest question, is a 21-man roster viable long-term?
If a player is assigned to IR, they still count against the cap, correct?
No.
Yes.
This of course is all conjecture, I don’t think anyone has had a 21 man roster for a long period of time. The question is:
1) Is it because it is not sustainable? Play a man short when injury hits then emergency recall for the next game multiple times throughout the year? What if multiple injuries hit in one game?
Or
2) Is it considered to unconventional and risky to try?
I personally like them to try it out for a month and see how it goes.
There has been some talk here about the potential value of a “big body” with some skill on the roster. Flames picked up a Pens forward, Radim Zohorna on waivers then yesterday waived him. I know nothing of this player but what I read in regards to waivers – he is 6’6″, 220, 26 years old, L shot but can play either side, 10 pt in 25 games, throws his weight around but has apparently some valued analytics in possession and turnovers.
He’s on a $750K contract. Any one with thoughts this? Perhaps a pickup that turns the tables on the Flames usual MO of sending flying bodies at everyone…
Of course I am not even exploring roster moves needed, just a random thought.
It seems kostin now fills that role…!
I was under the impression, if you claim someone from waivers, that you had to keep them in the NHL for a few months or else they revert back to the previous team.?
They removed that rule. Now, if the Pens are the only team to put in a waiver claim for him, they can send him straight to AHL without needing to put him through waivers again. If they claim him, I’m thinking they might be the only team. Calgary was very low on the claim list and got him.
Jason Demers has a 20% EG in the pre-season?
Seems like he will be one of the transactions come Monday am.
The preseason fancies are virtually meaningless. Look at the sample sizes + quality of competition + quality of teammates.
He could play a very valuable role in Bakersfield and be available for worst case scenario in case of injuries if he’s willing to take that deal
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Glad that one of the things we can finally once again be thankful for is a truly competitive hockey team.
And thanks as always to LT and the comment crew here.
Eat too much turkey!
I wonder if Woody will run 11/7 to start the season blending in Broberg and Murray on 3LD or if they already have a plane ticket for Bro and Sammy to come up for spell to be sent back down presumably just before he would need to clear waivers again??
Where, how is Jujhar these days?
CHicago.
One more season with Chicago I think but his most famous video on YouTube is a “Jujhar Khaira loses consciousness compilation” which scares me more than is reasonable.
Prospectorama!
A pair of prospects would have played today, but that plan has been rent in twain with Max Wanner’s suspension. Today is the last day (game) of it, so he is eligible to return Friday.
So Skyler, Son of Rod gets the spotlight all to himself today. Much like Maatta, he will never put up video game numbers, but is a witch on the dot. He will be in action at high noon Islay time.
Islay, had to look on google maps for that one, first time for everything I guess.
If I lived in Islay and had a son, I’d name him Peater, so he would be Peat or Peaty for short.
I was today years old when I found out Quinnipiac’s opponent, LIU (it’s a non-conference game) stands for Long Island University.
No love for Busby.
Sad.
Well now we know for a fact they are doomed…….
Went to church in Islay for about 6 years.
You seem to have recovered. 😎
It was a cop-out lol.
Dad drove the priest from Vermilion to Islay for Saturday night mass, which was a half hour as opposed to the full hour Sunday morning.
Guess where I chose to be at 5 years old, lol.
I found a guy who watches more hockey than me….
https://twitter.com/spittinchiclets/status/1579119447922847744?t=zF1vHB7bd_Nrx7ivqfj98A&s=19