I think we can agree that if the Edmonton Oilers make it back to the SCF this spring, many things will have to change. From what I’m reading here and there, the team needs to fire any or all of the coach, the new goalie and the manager into the sun. Please read this.
I don’t agree. In his last six games, Trent Frederic owns an expected goal share of 60 percent. Now his actual goal share is 1-3 in about 60 minutes five-on-five, but he is trending well. The Frederic deal is still regarded as the nadir (at least until the Jarry deal) for Stan Bowman in Edmonton, but the big forward is showing well recently. I believe he’s finally healthy and should turn those frowns into smiles eventually. I also believe that the same kind of patience shown to Frederic by the Oilers should also be given to Jarry. It’s all about sunk cost and not throwing away assets.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: OTT, CAR (Expected 1-1-0) 1-1-0
- On the road to: VEG, COL, DAL, STL (Expected 2-2-0) 2-1-1
- At home to: NAS, SJS, FLA, TBAY (Expected 2-1-1)
- On the road to: UTA, VEG (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: ANA, SEA (Expected 1-1-0)
- Expected Record: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 3-2-1
- Season Record: 32-26-9, 73 points in 68 games
The team’s expected goal share by month is also interesting. These are five-on-five numbers, by month, with actual goal share in brackets:
- October: 50X (47)
- November: 47X (40)
- December: 53X (52)
- January: 53X (50)
- February: 53X (53)
- March: 54X (43)
The Oilers have been a fairly consistent team in terms of expected goals, and the wobble in actual goal share can be described as luck and human error. Now, the goaltending is the issue, but Tristan Jarry is a sunk cost. Haven’t we had enough of adding a sweetener to a big contract gone wrong in order to wish it into the cornfield?
I was not in favour of dealing Stuart Skinner because, for me, having room to wheel in summer would have been a good idea. Bowman read the situation as Edmonton being exposed with no goalie under contract, so made the trade.
The other trade, the smaller one, appears to be the ticket for Edmonton. Connor Ingram’s .891 SP matches Skinner’s totals when he was here (Jarry is .855) and his five-on-five SP (.896) is clear of all other Oilers goalies this season.
I think the wise choice is the one Kyle Dubas employed. Play your goalie, build him up, and then wait for someone to offer adequate assets. Bowman made his choice, on Frederic and on Jarry. It looks like Frederic is becoming the player everyone thought he would be in Edmonton. You might not like the player, or the AAV, and certainly the length and language of the contract is a problem. None of that merits another deal that costs major assets.
Frederic looks like he’ll be able to cover the bet moving forward. I’d rather sign Ingram, bring Jarry back in fall and see if he can become the goaltender Edmonton thought they were getting. At the very least, it will save the franchise from bleeding assets again.
Samuel Jonsson
The Oilers situation in goal is chaotic in the NHL and AHL, but in Fort Wayne big goalie Samuel Jonsson is having a good year. He started hot, had some wobble, and has now settled in. He is playing to a .910 save percentage. Oilers prospect Connor Ungar leads the league at .927 and should be under heavy consideration for a recall to Bakersfield based on last night’s performances in the Condors net.
Why the Edmonton Oilers need to invest in college free agents again
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7117900/2026/03/15/edmonton-oilers-free-agents-college-2026/
A dominant effort largely without Draisaitl.
Savoie is figuring things out in real time, beautiful.
The d zone coverage and breakouts looked excellent.
With better finishing this game would have been a blow out.
And of course Bobby McMann has 3 goals & 2 assists in his first 2 games with Seattle…
Hopefully McMann sticks around for Free Agency, he is one of the missing pieces of the puzzle for this team moving forward.
i am lighting a candle for this to come to fruition.
Except McMann now is on a big value contract but will be $5MM-$6MM in free agency.
Like the player, not sure if I like what he’d need to sign for.
I’d think the team would be willing to pay 5×5 for a 30 goal scorer.
I like McMann better than I like Roslovic.
Except he’s not a 30 goal scorer and isn’t passing to be this year and turns 30 before next season.
From Spec’s article:
“He didn’t feel right, he went off,” said Knoblauch, describing the sequence of events around Draisaitl’s eventual departure. “He got checked out, felt like he could play on it, and the medical staff looked at him. They were comfortable with him trying it out, (but) he went out and he just didn’t feel quite right.
“The fact the medical staff said, ‘It doesn’t seem too bad and there’s no immediate red flags,’ tells me that it shouldn’t be a really long injury. There might be some time off, but we’ll find out later.”
Better call up Mr.Clattenburg before the Sharks and Panthers start taking runs at McDavid. Also with Leon out they should try Howard in the Leon spot on the PP.
You can just see Savoie’s confidence growing game after game. He is playing freely now without over thinking everything. If he can continue to build chemistry with McDavid, and stick on his wing, that would be HUGE
Coach had no update on Drai – said he hadn’t talked to the medical staff yet (ya right).
He did say that, if they need a center, Nuge would play center but even if they have everyone available, Savoie is staying on McDavid’s wing!
Awesome for Savoie! He has earned it.
Despite getting swept on the weekend, Kamloops clinched a playoff spot today with Portland’s loss to Everett.
All three CHL’ers will be in the postseason.
The Oilers probably need to win 11 of their final 14 to win the division. That means 97-99 points gets it done.
Probably need to win 8 of 14 just to make the playoffs. It’ll be just 92+ points to make the cut.
I can’t believe how low the bar is this year.
WC2 currently has a 0.538 P% – pacing for 88 point.
90 gets in in the West this year.
What’s the number for the 3P or WC1 cause that’s what matters.
is Ingram our new version of Rollison?….that would be sweet!
Roly put up hurculean efforts against superior teams.
Ingram just needs to be ok.
No. Roloson was unreal. The only stretch of goaltending I can think of that was as impressive was Halak for Montreal in their 2010 cup run and Hasek in 99 for Buffalo’s.
Ingram has been basically average. And that’s perfectly fine for now.
I like steady average goaltending. One regulation loss for him in his last 7 games (counting Colorado when he was injured).
Game should not have been that close but will take the win. Hopefully Drai isn’t out long. Ingram solid. Bring on the Sharks!
A win is a win. Fingers crossed on Drail.
During the 16 banger they were winning most games by 1 or 2. I’m not saying it’s the same just that they cut down goals against massively and held leads.
We wait, and hope.
Did we win? I think we won.
Thankfully Stammer clanked it. But how the hell is nobody tracking the 600+ goal scorer in zone within 2 minutes left of a 1 goal game?
Edmonton mostly played really well defensively, so it’s weird to see an absolute boner like that in the dying moments of a close game.
Anyway. 2 points.
I’d guess it’s the same reason Ovechkin shoots from the half wall on his offside and has 900+ goals. Scorers just find that open ice and make us ask why he was so open lol
If you watch the replay, the Oilers were all puck-watching and drifting towards the corner.
You are right, but you at least want somebody in position/trying to break up the pass to the far side. Ovechkin and Stamkos don’t usually have all day to walk in on net. Stammer could’ve driven in on a breakaway if he had wanted.
Agreed, there was a lot of puck watching by the Oilers on that play.
Thank-you goal post.
I had to listen on the radio but that sounded like a great effort all around. For the third period I had Cam & Bob in one ear and Clapton & Winwood in concert on TV (2009 concert from MSG). Not a bad mix.
Glad Ingram was able to hold down the fort at the end. Hope Drai will be ok.
10 bell chance against off the post and then Hyman puts this to bed with the empty netter
whew!
Whoa off the post then Hyman gets the EN goal. Yea baby!
Whew.
Guys. We don’t have to let them set up in the zone and do whatever they want…
That’s the sort of hockey some people have been asking for, sadly.
It lets even a team as bad as Nashville just hang around.
They’re very fortunate they didn’t fall off the right rope again tonight. Not the wise way to get where you want to go.
No, nobody is asking for that. Nice try.
Nurse with the brutal unforced turnover in his own end. Good grief man.
Nurse with a bad turnover in his own end….
They must be keeping Walman together with duct tape
I swear he gets banged up every game.
Health is one of the skills. If you can’t stop getting hurt your career is shortened. Maybe it’s really bad luck, but I don’t think for most
Starting to feel like Friday night’s 3rd period…
I know how it ends!
McDavid has to start shooting
boy do we need this
Nurse with the giveaway before goal as usual
Stastney with the great screen.
Maybe it was Murphy
I’ve seen this movie
Let’s hope the good guys don’t regret the many missed scoring chances.
Here We Go Again 2: Here We Go Again Again
Starring Tugg Speedman!
Its the sequel, with a better ending
Oilers have given up 2 HDCA against at all strengths so far.
Nashville doesn’t have a single high danger chance for against the Oilers with the man advantage, either.
They’ve creamed the opposition on high danger chances in 4 of the past 5 games. Very encouraging.
Whatever tweak to the PK, it’s working well
There was structural/system tweaks (someone said back to wedge + 1 – I couldn’t tell you but coach says they were changing things) but the additions of Henrique, Dickinson and Murphy certainly make a difference as well.
If they can stop the bleeding on the PK that’s a positive arrow. It’s been abysmal since the calendar changed to 2026.
Changed the structure. It was a 2-2 box. Now it’s a wedge + 1.
LoL…a horrible PP and then Nurse sends a desperation wrister and rings it off the post at the buzzer
This one ain’t over yet
Ya, that was a terrible PP.
Nurse’s shot was deflected and Samanski just missed on the rebound.
The HH curse lives on.
Mentioned Broissoit starting tonight for the Sharks, finished the game with sub .800 sv%.
Bouch is half speed. Sick?
Bouch has been awesome tonight by my eye.
Walman with the Weis-splatt. 💥
An SHG would be most welcome here. Dickenson has been terrific in the PK, like to see him rewarded
Frederic looking like he’s starting to feel it.
Looks quicker, using his body to win puck battles down low.
He’s had that lift in his hits back. Moving much better.
Louie was a “producer” in junior?
I think Jack’s description of him even caught him off guard there.
I guess in his 20 year old season, you could say that. He was a bruiser who could put up a few points until then.
PPG player (31-33-64 in 61 games) in his last Jr season to go with his 223 PIM’s 🙂
Savvy Matty!!
Savoie. Love it.
Savoie with a no doubter and buries it on the 2 on 1..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A great pass by McDavid but Savoie skated his ass off to get there.
..big goal…now let’s make it 3 and get some separation
What a pass by McDavid given it was telegraphed for 3 zones and great work by Savoie to get the separation.
Ek lookin loose n spry.
Draisaitll not coming back. This is a terrible development. Hopefully it’s not to serious but he needs to be healthy to start the playoffs. This is said with the caveat that we will make the playoffs
Oilers with 13 players with 100% expected goals in the first period – Matt Savoie at the bottom at 78%.
NST has the Preds with zero high danger shot attempts, 5 on 5 or PP.
Great period by the Oilers.
Need to extend the lead a few times here.
Stauffer is hot on that hit
Kinda weird. I thought it was just Weisblatt finishing his check. No animus, not a particularly hard hit, just awkward how he hit the boards next to the bench.
I thought so too. He does work for the team. Maybe he’s sending a message from the Oilers management
That was Rob Brown’s take in between the period as well. But you don’t know if he just caught him or not.
Not able to watch tonight as the game is blacked out in Nashville, would really like to see for myself.
Great 1st period. Another goal or two would have been nice.
Ingram looks sharp 👍
Oilers unlucky not to be up by 3+ as they dominated the period – NST had 5 on 5 at 94% Oilers.
Keep it up, the gates of flood will open!
Great kill and Leon takes the ice!!
Henrique is a good PK guy and he leads the forwards in blocks, even with all the time missed. 4th line and PK is a role he may succeed in – he’s on the roster and not going anywhere.
FFS, that play happens on every single face off.
Oilers need to be more disciplined. Hard to disagree with any of these penalties they’ve taken. Yes, Nashville probably should’ve gotten a matching one in the first (Kapanen) penalty. But all 3 Oilers penalties would be tough not to call.
3rd penalty this period- playing with fire