It was an eventful game for the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Place last night. The top story is Leon Draisaitl’s injury status. There were “no immediate red flags” after the game and so we’ll see. The Oilers had plenty of good performances, including Connor McDavid’s three points, Matt Savoie’s game winner and a solid effort from Connor Ingram. Please read this.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: OTT, CAR (Expected 1-1-0) 1-1-0
- On the road to: VEG, COL, DAL, STL (Expected 2-2-0) 2-1-1
- At home to: NAS, SJS, FLA, TBAY (Expected 2-1-1) 1-0-0
- On the road to: UTA, VEG (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: ANA, SEA (Expected 1-1-0)
- Expected Record: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 4-2-1
- Season Record: 33-26-9, 75 points in 69 games
The Oilers have gained three points on Vegas Golden Knights in the last 10 games, and the Pacific is now a horse race to the top. Anaheim is in first place, I keep waiting for their clock to strike midnight but they’re led by a veteran coach and may have enough to win the division. The Oilers are one point back of VGK and have played one more game, and Edmonton is two points behind the Ducks, who also have a game in hand.
- Savoie-McDavid-Hyman 9:45, 7-3 shots, 1-0 goals, 86X, 2-0 HDSC
- Nuge-Dickinson-Roslovic 8:33, 4-0 shots, 59X, 4-1 HDSC
- Samanski-Henrique-Frederic 4:31, 0-1 shots, 24X, 0-1 HDSC
- Podkolzin-Samanski-Kapanen 4:16. 0-1 shots, 0X, 0-1 HDSC
The McDavid line is humming with Savoie on the wing. He is a more complete player than your average bear, and he’s smart. The McLeod-for-Savoie trade will forever be unpopular in Edmonton, but I liked it because the Oilers traded for top-six winger while giving up a third-line center. It’s wise to do that all day.
Jason Dickinson, Adam Henrique and Jack Roslovic led the team in faceoffs. I can’t tell you the last time one or more of 97, 29 and 93 were not in the top three in a game.
The makeshift Dickinson line delivered supreme overload against the Preds. If Nuge can be a utility player on the second and third lines, the forward group could roar.
- Nurse-Murphy 13:42, 6-4 shots, 0-1 goals, 69X, 7-2 HDSC
- Ekholm-Bouchard 13:34, 6-5 shots, 1-0 goals, 64X, 3-2 HDSC
- Stastney-Walman 10:52, 4-4 shots, 44X, 1-1 HDSC
- Connor Ingram 26 of 27, .963SP
Connor Ingram is emerging as the starter in Edmonton. The competition isn’t strong, but that shouldn’t obscure how well he’s played lately. His save percentage (five-on-five) in his last five games is .906 and that is splendid in the context of this Oilers season.
The coaching staff continues to push the Nurse-Murphy pairing at equal to or more than Ekholm-Bouchard levels.The team is winning more, but Nurse-Murphy are 0-2 goals in 57 minutes. The increased work for Nurse in the last few games is not helping. In the past six contests, at five-on-five, he is 3-7 goals while the rest of the roster is 8-7 goals while Nurse is at rest. I could be wrong, but fading Nurse is the play here.
I have rarely been excited about this team in 2025-26. I am now. You can see the goaltending finally developing a spine, and the forward lines are there for the postseason. They are Savoie-97-Hyman; Podkolzin-29-Kapanen; Nuge-Dickinson-Roslovic and Samanski-Henrique-Frederic. You can mix and match as you wish, but that’s an encouraging group. The defense isn’t there yet, and I think Ty Emberson might be the key. We’ll see.
On the Lowdown today, Rachel Kryshak from Betalytics will be our guest at 12:40. We’ll chat about this Oilers team and the current run representing one of the strongest periods of the season. Is this the beginning of the rise? Jason Gregor pops in at 1:20, we will talk Draisaitl injury, Ingram emergence and more. March Madness, World Baseball Classic and more on the way. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
CONDORS
What we’ve learned about the Edmonton Oilers since NHL trade deadline
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7120019/2026/03/16/edmonton-oilers-leon-draisaitl-connor-ingram-stats-standings/
As you say, very small sample. However, a number of the things you identify have been developing all season. SB GM said things would look different come Feb-March. Spring may bring further surprises… (I’m hoping you’ve got lots of garden-unfolding pics for the April-June blog posts).
This league is a joke and if it was a Toronto player taking a knee out of a California star there is no way Parros gets in front of a camera and defends his asinine decision.
Parros is the biggest piece of whatever is the worst thing you’re not allowed to say about anyone here.
Feck this league. It’s not for Canadians anymore.
Also feck the leafs, Just for good measure.
I thought I would share some info about quality start% and “really bad start” %
https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-starting-goalies-ranked/#:~:text=Quality%20Start%20Percentage%20(QS%25):,better%20your%20season%20has%20been.
From Vollman so that’s something, but I don’t know if these averages for QS still hold today (should be similar if average save percentage has shifted)
A quality start leads to a team win roughly 77.5% of the time, whereas teams win only 32.5% of games where the goalie does not produce a quality start, and <10% of the time if there is a really bad start.
Jarry
QS% by year (20G or more)
60.9, 2GP, 61.3, 63.2, 62.5, 57.4, .60.4, 48.6 (last year, before send down and after return), 42.3 (61.5-PIT/23.1-EDM)
Career: 57.7
That’s 5 outstanding seasons with one average season mixed in, then a poor season (with recovery after recall), then an outstanding start with PIT trashed by an atrocious 15 games in EDM. Those are the craziest splits I can imagine (outstanding -> ECHL)
RBS% by year (20G or more)
15.4, 2 GP, 9.6, 18.4, 10.3, 10.6, 25, 25.7, 30.7 (15.3-PIT/46.1-EDM)
Career: 17.9
For a team wanting more consistency, the RBS% over the preceding 2 seasons should have been a big red flag, although they were back down before the trade
Skinner
QS% by year
1GP, 13GP, 60.4, 61.4, 50, 48.8 (43.5-EDM/55.6-PIT)
Career: 55.0
A general trend in the wrong direction, with above average QS in PIT
RBS%
1 GP, 13GP, 18.0, 19.2, 24.0, 19.5 (17.3-EDM/22.2-PIT)
Career: 20.0
PLAYOFFS (50 GS – no other goalie has enough games to judge)
QS 44.0% (poor)
RBS 36.0 motha-you know what %
Has never, once had a consistent season, with 1/5 games being absolute clunkers and that jumps to >1/3 in the playoffs. He has actually managed to raise his RBS% in PIT
So, you have
Skinner, who has never shown consistency and his QS are in decline over the past 2/4 seasons after 2 outstanding (brief rebound in PIT) and an established poor QS% delivery and terrible inconsistency in the playoffs vsJarry, who went from admirable consistency and consistently outstanding seasons to a bad start with admirable rebound season, followed by a good start followed by injury and a team switch leading to horrific goaltending behind the worst D the Oilers have mustered in years, and 3 straight years of RBS% corresponding with bad Pens and then good Pens/bad Oilers (with 8 bad playoff games 5-7 years ago)Call me optimistic, but even Jarry’s bad season last year ended up just below ave QS%, so this 23.1%QS/46.1%RBS is completely bonkersToo lazy to do Ingram and Pickard by year, but
Both Ingram and Jarry have posted their highest RBS% of any season in Edmonton (maybe the D has a role?)Ingram
His QS% thus far is a shining 63.3% in Edmonton, just tops of any season by any of the above goalies (also his worst RBS% at 26.3 this season, even worse than last year)
Career QS% is the lowest of the 3 “starters” at 53.5% (never an outstanding prior season, but 2 close to it, and then really weighed down by last season’s 36.4%)
RBS% career is also highest of the 3 at 21.1% career
Pickard
Career
QS 50.3% worst overall
RBS 20.3%
Last season, Pickard had a 67.7% QS and 16.1% RBS in 31 GS, maybe the best backup tender performance for this team in decades?
Playoffs as Oiler (13GP makes him the veteran of the 3 goalies we have)
Career 44.4% QS, marginally better than Skinner
But ironically, last year when Picks was the reason we went to round 3, his QS was 28.6% (compared to Skinners 44) but he had only had 1/7 (14.3%) RBS compared to Skinner’s 46.7%.
That’s right, Skinner last season had 7 really bad starts (with <10% chance of winning) compared to 6 quality starts (with 77% chance of winning). He was not the goalie of playoff glory
This is really good work.
They are leaky this year. Lots of defense injuries, lots of forward turnover and erosion.
But prior to that they weren’t leaky. In 2024 they were extra stingy and Stu was still having issues. Worse every year and worse every post season.
Time for a different lane.
Jarry’s sample size also has an injury in the middle of it and a two week break. Smallest of small in the circumstances. Humble pie can be quite cold in March.
He’ll reset and the digits suggest a pretty decent goaler will find himself behind a rapidly improving defense. This is a good thing.
Great work, tough when the posts come in late and not everyone looks at them the next day to appreciate the amount of work that goes into them.
The concern I had with Jarry when the trade occurred and still now 3 months later, is his age and his recent injury history (i.e. the past 3 years). The Oilers may be getting him on the downswing and it is going to be tougher for him to recover from these types of muscle strain/pull injuries, which likely has contributed to his RBS% since returning. But we’ll see. I was also concerned about his playoff issues with the Pens, because the results weren’t great. Again, we’ll see. I have a lot of confidence in Ingram and glad the Oilers have stated they are running with him, because he deserves it and this also gives Jarry time to focus on getting his game & timing back.
Re Skinner and last year’s playoffs, people seem to forget he was coming back from a concussion just before the playoffs. I’m sure Round 1 hit like a ton of bricks. He rebounded nicely when Picks went down. I remain hopeful Skinner rebounds with different surroundings going forward in his career, and so far, he has been doing just that. He has age on his side, just like Ingram. Unfortunately, Jarry and Picks don’t have age on their side and have had injury concerns. Hoping for the best with Ingram and Jarry, but more confident in Ingram right now.
Dont look now but even col gets shelled the odd time.
And it wasnt by dallas…
Mackenzie Blackwood now just a .904 on the season.
Colorado has some holes going into the postseason.
Told y’all this would happen.
Boots gonna get heavier for the 40% of the roster >34.
I’m so glad we got rid of Skinner.
He had numerous runs of the same level of putrid performance that Jarry is giving now and all his defenders did was blame the team. Every time he lost the net it was everyone else’s fault.
Now there is finally accountability in goal in Edmonton.
Let’s be honest, Skinner was hung out to dry, many a time.
Yes the goalie needs to drop pucks but 15 goalies since Mcdavid was drafted says that it’s probably not just the goalie.
15? I have seen how this team chews up goalies in recent years, but that number is shocking.
Don’t think you read the whole post.
Exactly. It’s not just the goalies. And that is not to say Jarry is a top ten (or twenty) goalie
Sorry, but at no point did Skinner play as badly as Jarry has in any stretch of comparable time.
I reluctantly conceded that Skinner probably needed a fresh start. But Jarry was a lateral move, at best, while being a bigger commitment.
The upside is that he might turn it around next year. The downside is that, if not, that’s a pretty hefty 2 final years on his contract.
I do think that the team is criticized too much for poor performance in front of the keepers. It’s overblown. When you look at the scoring chances, and especially the high danger ones, Edmonton has been okay. And relative to their opposition, even when they’ve been bad, they still usually come out on top.
They just need consistently average goaltending to thrive. Skinner wasn’t consistent, and he was either awful or all-world. Jarry has been just plain awful. Ingram’s consistency, certainly by comparison, has been a breath of fresh air.
I’d check out his game log from this past October/November – its not far off….
Oct-Nov 2026
Apr -Jun 2025
Feb-Mar 2025
Apr – Jun 2024
Oct-Nov 2024
Apr-May 2023
Oct-Nov 2023
Have been thinking about this goaltending conundrum the Oilers have come next season. For now, it seems like it’s Ingram’s cage.
But next year, with Jarry at >$5M and Ingram probably commanding $1.75-2.75M, what do you do?
First, definitely try to re-sign Ingram. He’s a solid 1B, if nothing else.
But then I’d probably look at a Rittich-like signing. He was coming off of a bad year last season, but he’d been a steady average goalie in relief for a few years. Not purely a backup but not really a 1B starter either. Signed for $1M with NYI.
If it doesn’t work out, you can bury almost the entire contract in the minors.
Guys like that coming up this off-season as UFAs (who still have some tread on the fire): Comrie, Rittich, Matt Murray, and Vanecek.
If they’re looking at a place they can potentially steal the starter’s crease and would be willing to take a flyer on a 1 year deal for $1-1.5M to cover that bet, there isn’t a more appealing landing spot in hockey than the Oilers, I’d have to think.
And then waive Jarry? That’s the problem I think. They will resign Ingram and start with Jarry to see if he can be better. And if not we will end up in the same situation as this year I guess, trading for a Jarry replacement. Not ideal.
Nope, I think you just resign yourself to carrying 3 Gs on the active roster. Think 2005-06 with Jussi Markkanen, Ty Conklin, and Mike Morrison.
For goaltending assurance, I make it work.
I guess you could technically waive Jarry and chip $1M off his cap hit by assigning him to Bakersfield. I’m not opposed if he really can’t get his groove back. Probably buy him out in his final year.
But even with Jarry at $5M+, Ingram at around $2-2.5M, and another goalie around $1-1.5, it’s a bit expensive but you at least have contingency and it’s still within the realm of common goalie cap allocation figures.
I don’t imagine, for a second, they head in to camp planning on carrying 3 goaltenders.
I’m actually quite surprised by your adage that a 3C for a top 6 W is generally wise, LT.
First of all, I don’t think there’s a single 2nd line winger in the league who is more valuable than a 3C who kills penalties well, among the best (leads the league in shorties, too), puts up 50+ points/season, and can play against elites and still come out on top. Nevermind that Cloudy skates like the wind and is “built Ford tough”.
For 1W who puts up about a point per game? I’d say that’s probably about even with McLeod’s value (admittedly it’s higher today than it was 1.5 years ago).
If Savoie turns out to be a top line W, zooms–or at least treads water vs–elites, kills penalties well, and contributes on the PP, then that’s a rare W for both franchises.
But generally speaking, the way I see it is if you’re trading a bona fide top 9 C or a top-4 D (esp a RH one), it shouldn’t be for a W unless it’s part of a larger package or the W is (or is projecting) elite.
Every year there are solid top-6 Ws available in free agency. Every year teams find top-6 wingers Even if they’re not as good as Savoie, it is an area where good players are routinely scooped at a bargain in free agency.
To wit, I’d rather have McLeod and Arvidsson (or Roslovic, take your pick) today than Savoie and Dickinson.
I would agree with most of this and say that JJ undervalued McLeod and put too much emphasis on a few mistakes in playoffs (there was that one turnover in Vancouver that almost lost us a big game). But this was also a young player who was still growing and he also spent some time in the top 6 with Leon and Foegele IIRC and was very good during that winning streak.
However, it could still work out if Savoie turns into the player you describe above. Not a trade I would have been in a hurry to make but they at least got a very good piece back. And McLeod is a 2C not a 3C. But I guess 3C at the time of the trade.
Even then, you are underselling McLeod.
In the extended absence of Josh Norris, he has been the Sabres 2C, and is second in TOI/GP among their pivots at 17:46
Upon returning from injury Norris is averaging 16:06 and playing 3C.
Yeah I recognize he’s become a 2C in ice time.
But he was a 3C when dealt and he still largely plays a 3C kind of role (or what it’s historically been, until 1C and 3C started blending certain roles): faces elites, drives the PK, isn’t a PP stalwart (not until injuries, anyway), etc.
Anyway, beautiful player. Reminds me of another one that “got away”: Jason Chimera. Very similar styles. Cloudy’s got more talent than Chimera had, and Chimera was converted into a winger after breaking into the league as a C, but similar tools and roles. Gosh, brilliant skaters.
The bet at the time was that Henrique was the better option as the third line center for the next couple of years. Henrique was better than McLeod during the 24 cup run. Hindsight is 20-20.
McLeod “built Ford tough”?
Did you watch him in the playoffs?
Savoie would win a board battle 80% of the time against McLeod. Dog vs Rabbit, McLeod stew is on the menu.
I think the strategy on getting league average goaltending for teams like the Oilers, should shift to identifying tenders that put up average numbers on poor defensive teams instead of getting high/average performers on good teams. Stay away from guys coming off bad years hoping they rebound. Get the solid guys off bad teams.
Woodley on Gregor’s show right now. He sometimes cites expected save percentage for goalies based on their defensive environment. He says Jarry’s expected save percentage is .868 and Ingram’s is .889.
They have their own tracking method that tracks passer location, shooting location, tips/screens etc. and some other things that expected goals (which is mostly just based on probabilities assigned to locations on the ice where shots come from) doesnt take into account. Says Jarry is still performing well below his level but says the defensive environment in front of him hasnt been good.
Again, Oilers should really hire a guy like this that knows goaltending and all the analytics behind it.
One would think that with their turbo charged stats dept they would be doing this, it’s not that complicated. We have Corsi because Jim used to manually track shots to evaluate if his goalies were the issue or team defense
We try to use stats to debate the important issues of the day, namely the Oilers. Some teams do, the Oilers should be designing their systems around such analytics. The goalie environment for defensive, what increases scoring odds for offensive
Low hanging fruit. They mention some things about the D, keeping teams perimeter, maybe it’s that they can’t execute. As I’ve commented many times, I don’t think they do on offense, and it shows in how their 5v5 scoring (13th) lags the PP and overall scoring (2nd)
If they did the things that increase scoring odds 35% more, and the benefit is 10% or whatever better odds, that’s a big jump that doesn’t involve trying to find new players that score more, so cost more
I do not believe Jim Corsi invented Corsi. My recollection was that Tim Barnes named it after him. Something about hearing him talk about goalie workload on the radio or somewhere. Hmm, maybe we should start writing this stuff down, lol.
The hate by the Skinner Cult has been over the top on Jarry. I wanted Binnington for 2 runs instead will get Jarry for 3 runs. Until I see Jarry flop in the Playoffs I will cheer like hell for him as he is wearing the Oiler Jersey.
My goodness. So, if Jarry flops in the playoffs, you’ll no longer cheer like hell for him? Here’s a newsflash, anyone who cheered on Skinner is also cheering on Jarry, and Ingram, and Picks and every other goalie who’s been in an Oiler net. It’s probably one of the most challenging teams to play goal for and we all want the team to do well. The people hating on Jarry are the ones that hate on all Oiler goalies when they struggle.
👏
That’s the spirit but don’t be fooled there’s plenty of trolls and I told you so folks. Everyone has their favourites it’s human nature from Mio-Moog-Fuhr-Ranford-Joseph-Salo-Roloson-Talbot-Smith-Skinner-Jarry. My personal favourite was Ranford who carried a fragile team for 3.5 rounds of excellence. A close second was Roloson. It’s too bad Pickard who was on a win streak roll got clipped by a dirty Hertl.
I may be one of your “Skinner Cult” folks —if by that you mean people who pushed back on the “Skinner sux” narrative. Something you seemed very energetic about.
I didn’t like the Skinner trade, not because I thought Skinner was the answer, but because I didn’t think there was a “goalie problem.” I certainly don’t blame Jarry now. It’s the same as it ever was: the team is inconsistent in its play, and they make goalies look bad.
I am rooting for every goalie who stands behind this team. For a couple of reasons. One, I want the team to win, so I want the goalies to have success.
Two, goaltending is about confidence, and this team (and fans who love to blame goalies) is not an easy place to build confidence.
Is Jarry a fit in Oilerville? We won’t know until he’s had a legitimate chance to win some playoff games. That said, he has a tough record to beat. Despite your dislike of Skinner, he remains one of the winningest playoff goalies.
Right now if I was a betting man I’d put money on Ingram, at least for this year. The confidence-battering that Jarry has gone through since returning from injury may take a long time to recover from.
ps. It’s good to see you sticking up for him, Reja. Goalies go through ups and downs. I believe they deserve lots of patience to get through their downs.
pps. I’ve complained often about on-ice leadership not doing their part to make life more predictable and easier for Oiler goalies. Last night’s performance by McD was heartening. Maybe when the Capt plays that way he not only inspires his team to follow suit, but he gives all of us reason to believe. Even LT.
A very good post. I’m kind of sick of the goalies just suck narrative too. They can’t…. All suck, can’t they..?
Thanks. But, I do think the goalies will pretty much all -eventually- suck in Oilerville. Too much is expected of them. They cannot live up to those expectations. When they fail, they lose confidence etc. Eventually they are flushed.
What may have worked for Pickard, and may also work for Ingram, is low expectations. Nobody expected Pickard to be such an effective relief goalie. Ingram re-emerging from his personal struggles, unexpected. Now that he’s been named starter, of course, Oilerville may dial up the intensity.
Yeah I think thats also why goalies here do well in relief. Not as much pressure. Campbell was always great in relief. Jarry was great in relief the other night. The pressure here is insane. A bad goal goes in and things heat up like crazy.
I think Ingram’s personality works well here. He seems like a very level headed, chill guy. Just dialled in. Mike Smith was kind of the opposite but an extremely confident guy. Maybe it’s a mental thing. We might need guys that are a bit out there.
All goalies are not created equally. I’ll make it easy for you there’s no way we should have beat the powerhouse Habs in 1980-81. The Habs were stacked with young and veteran stars they had a Cup team at every position but in net Sevingy was a sieve and Moog was a Rock Star. The Habs finally dump Sevingy for Penney and they upset the Bruins and a few other teams with a lesser talented team then the one they had in 1980-81. The Habs then catch lightning in a bottle when Penney gets hurt and in comes a kid at 20 named Roy who then proceeds to win them a Cup with an average team at best. Roy was a stone cold killer especially in OT. Take a look at the rosters of that 1980-81 Habs team and compare it with the Cup team in 1985 it’s Night and Day. The Goalie position can make or break a Coach-GM-Team. Go back and watch hi-lights of Roy on that Cup run he was fricking unbelievable he stole the Habs a Cup. Skinner is an average goalie at best every opposing team knows his lateral movement weakness. I haven’t seen much of Jarry but when he’s healthy and confident he has more upswing then a ho-hum average Joe Skinner.
I hope for a couple of things:
I do not think I have said two words about Jarry, except that it was a bad trade value wise.
And I was pretty much the only person without Skinner Derangement Syndrome.
This is silly.
So, as of recent play, when Emberson is ready, who do you sit, Stastney or Walman?
For shits and giggles as well, if Walman was currently playing at the level he was last year for us, would you consider…
Ekholm Bouch
Walman Murphy
Stastney Emberson?
I would give Walman some rest if the other two can hold the fort. Playoffs are all
Please – do you honestly think thy are better with Stastney in over Nurse?
Do you ever actually read the posts? At no point did I say that or even projected that, I asked questions for the sake of good faith discussion.
Does your constant need to tell us how much you work out or your travel plans stroke your ego in ways that border on weird but at best are awkward, suck so much oxygen from whatever lobe of your brain that tells you how superior you are over the rest of us peasant Oiler fans that you can’t comprehend when somone is asking questions out of curiosity and to hear others thoughts without making grandiose statements as to our own grandiose opinions that we should bow down to the elite and amazing insights that you offer?
Lol.
Let’s so do this. Please just refrain from commenting on my posts henceforth, I’m not worthy.
Yes, I read the post – I read your contemplation of a lineup where Nurse is scratched in favour of both Stastney and Emberson.
It looks like a grave in front of the hydrangeas, whatcha got buried there Lt?
His hopes of MA Pouliot becoming a 1st line centre.
Walman plays hockey like Thursday night men’s league. He high steps his crossovers and tries risky passes in bad areas, regroups when he should skate etc. He has the skills. Just needs to keep it simple. Drop the flash.
Ingram smothers the puck and doesn’t give out a lot of rebounds in the last 4-5. That really helps this D who are not great at clearing the front of the net.
Nice to see as Jarry gives up huge rebounds as did Skinner and Pic.
This is very true. Ingram isn’t a particularly athletic goalie and he’s not a particularly big either.
He does have very strong angles and is, generally speaking, quite strong on fundamentals.
I noticed in St. Louis and again last night how little he gives up if he sees it. It’s always in the corner, in his body, or it plops down in front of him and he covers it before anybody has a chance to even poke at it.
Man, I hope they are giving him lots of love in the dressing room. He is quietly settling things down behind them, and hardly saying a word.
Just my pure speculation, but I think they’ll be without Drai for a week or two and I think its a great opportunity for the team to rally and “dig in” and for certain depth players to provide a bigger impact. For example, this give the likes of Samanski an opportunity to play center with legit NHL wingers on a 3rd line.
This allows the likes of Dickinson, Henrique and Samanski to dig in on some bigger face-offs, etc.
Someone needs to step on on the PP – truth be told, Podz was robbed of a beauty one-timer from down low – he made the shot.
Of course it wouldn’t be ideal but this team CAN win without Drai for a few weeks.
Well they better practise a pp tons. Nashville instantly adjusted to attacking McD on the pp. it worked. Savoie is probably the next smartest forward after McD and Drai. He is very quick and good with the puck on his stick. Think he should be elevated. Pods can 1 time a puck, but just doesn’t have the stick abilities needed to be on that #1 unit.
Need more Bouchard one timer blasts with front net presence.
I’ve beens saying for a couple of games now they seem to be underusing Bouchard and trying to force passes through sticks and layers.
Yep instead of forcing passes in a phone booth and cross-ice. Bouchard has been right in the middle of the ice in prime spot to blast him or just get it to the net and have Hyman or ? clean up.
Does it also allows for a call up of someone who can help? – Hutson, Jarventie or Hamblin, maybe even Howard, though he is not a centre.
They have no cap room to call anyone up unless someone goes down (only Jones and Samanski eligible to go down, Dach too but not while he’s on LTIR) or someone goes on LTIR.
As nice as that one-timer was, Podz looked lost on the PP and he is really not a great substitute for Drai’s puck moving.
It really should be Roslovic or Savoie replacing Drai unless you call up Howard.
I thought he looked good, was puck hounding and doing the dirty work.
Agreed. Podz is great just not in that particular circumstance.
He’s come close a few times with the Leon shot you can tell he’s learnt from the master and has been practicing it. He will connect soon and hopefully find that spot he can master.
Knob with no update on Drai except for LBI. He was at the doctor. No update and no timeline yet.
Wonder if he got a hip pointer? Didn’t look like a knee ot ankle got whacked, but his hip hit the boards hard, as did his mid section as he got bent over the boards hard. Ribs could have been hit , but he was limping a bit .
I got one of those in the semi-final of a Midget tourny in Saskatchewan. I played the final but couldn’t really bend my leg.
Did you win the final? Don’t leave us hanging here. 😀
hahaha! We lost! To the Notre Dame Hounds. iirc it was 3-2
I couldn’t even sit down on the bench.
Going back and finally seeing the hit, it would not surprise me if it was a hip pointer. Hoping that is the less serious variety.
My son suffered one playing in college and he’d play a game/miss a game. Needs treatment and time to heal.
Per Stauff:
If we add more college/Euro FAs, I think it would be prudent to have an organizational plan at the NHL level to give the best-performing players a shot. I think leaving 3 F spots on the 23 man roster for rookies would be prudent with the added bonus of saving cap throughout the year.
You already have Jaraventie, Samanski, Hutson, Howard, and Marajala up front and likely adding Berozkin + 1-2 college FAs.
Having a roster framework like this could work:
Savoie-McDavid-Hyman
Podz-Drai-xxx
RNH-Dickinson-xxx
xxx-Samanski-xxx
xxx-xxx
Of those 6 open spots, 3 can go to veterans that can play up and down the line up such as Kapanen, a Lazar like player who can play all positions or sit, and maybe an impact player if money is available.
Leaving D spots are trickier and harder to project currently given the current Nurse and Walman situations, Murphy as a UFA, and more established but still young 7D like Regula and Stastney
Maybe Bobby McMann will want to sign in Edmonton.
You can’t hold spots for players, they have to there spots!!!! If a rookie takes a vets place that improves the team.
This team will not be able to go on a run without Nurse and Walman playing better than they have over the course of the season. We know for a fact that both can, as both have, materially better.
Nurse’s regression from peak levels has had sustain so there is no guarantee that he will play better, even though he can. Walman’s issues this year seem to be linked to playing through something hampering his mobility- I don’t have concern that he won’t find his peak game over the course of the next 4-5 years but, if the injury continues this season, maybe he won’t find it this year.
With that said, Walman has been better the last two games and Nurse has “calmed down” a bit as far as obvious mistakes.
These two are on the uptick in the very short term.
Going to the game tomorrow with my son and dad.
is it possible to access the oilers hall of fame on game days?
nice
ps i don’t know
Usually that’s where the press conferences and such are held at the rink. Its pretty small only one room. If you happen to have Lodge or I think club tickets its included to go check out just take the security entrance at the bottom. If not I don’t think you can on game day. However there is a bunch to do at the main entrance, a pub usually a band. You could take the train and walk through where all the outside stuff was for the playoffs last year. Druids Pub across road has face painters usually. Have a great time, wish my dad was around to go with me.
Normally, one needs to be part of a group invitation.
” I think Ty Emberson might be the key”
I don’t think anyone, even Ty’s mom has said something like that before. Scary if true.
Emberson was playing very well before his injury. Hope he is back this week. He hits hard
Coach said last night, even if they don’t need Nuge at center (and everyone is healthy), Savoie is staying at 1LW for now – fully earned.
The McLeod/Savoie trade was a bit of a re-tool, an established player for a prospect with a higher ceiling with 3 years of ELC left. The premise was good given they had a “replacement 3C” – that part didn’t work out well but the trade made sense, and still does, even if McLeod would have been a highly useful player in the interim.
The replacement was Holloway with Henrique being a stop-gap.
Neither part worked out but if Dyl was still part of the team that trade is a win going away.
Losing Broberg and Holloway certainly changed the look of the McLeod trade given all the youthful energy and speed that left – not to mention, Bouchard lost entire friendship group in one summer (along with Foegele).
Made it all the more perplexing that they did not at least match Holloway
Holloway was not trending to be a centre.
Edmonton hosting the Semifinals and Finals of the 2028 World Cup of Hockey.
Calgary and Prague splitting the round robin games.
NHL
@NHL
Calgary, Edmonton, and Prague will be the hosts for the 2028 World Cup of Hockey! #WCOH
https://www.nhl.com/news/world-cup-of-hockey-2028-to-be-played-in-calgary-edmonton-prague
I’m enjoying the fact that something I had a very very small part in is landing today and that so many will enjoy it. Those are always fun.
Danielle Smith
@ABDanielleSmith
The NHL just announced that Alberta will get a front row seat to see Team Canada reclaim its rightful place as the champions of men’s international hockey when we host the World Cup of Hockey 2028.
Alberta’s Government has been working with the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames for months on this bid and will be making a further announcement with full details at 12pm live on my X, Facebook, and YouTube accounts.
“Scotia Place, the Calgary Flames’ new arena that will open in the 2027-28 season, and at O2 Arena in Prague, will each host six round-robin games and one elimination game.”
“The World Cup semifinals and final will be played at Rogers Place in Edmonton.”
Wonder if the Russians will be allowed in. I would think they will as the league allows Russians to play in the NHL .
Hope not.
8 teams this time.
Canada
US
Sweden
Finland
Czechia
Slovakia
Germany
Switzerland?
They have announced there will be 8 teams but not which 8 teams.
Those will likely be the 8 unless Russia can play – they organizers hope they can but they aren’t there yet.
I would think Germany gets bumped if Russia can play – that would be a shame as an Oiler fan.
BIG difference between individual Russians and a team representing Russia.
Lots were calling for Savoie to be paired with Draisaitl early on, I was on the put him with McDavid train and reap the rewards. To Savoie’s credit either option is a wise choice, the Oilers won the trade all day long.
And saving over $4mil in process
Savoie is a perfect fit on lines 1 2 and3. Also pk and likely pp. Left wing right wing some centre. All game situations , down a goal , up a goal, ot…… He may even be good backup goalie. And probably coach too.
Just such a huge part of this team in a short period of time.
Totally, Learns quick and is turning out fast!
Let’s hope Howard can learn quick and do the same next season.
Are you sure?
McLeod is playing 2C for the second best team in the EC
Bro go get some damn sunlight
Neat, Savoie is playing 1st line on merit not due to injuries above him in the lineup.
It was a solid hockey trade for both teams. I call it a wash at this point but I think Savoie could eventually win the day if he keeps trending up. Also McLeod could up his stock with a very solid playoff performance. I am not sad at having Savoie at all, dude can play, flat out, worker with skill, playing all types of minutes, yes please.
Not if one includes the cost of replacing McLeod.
Several picks expended in the process.
For readers at home, Fibonacci (formerly Harpers Hair and some other handles he burned through because he was tired of people calling him out on his past takes), is normally very much in favour of trading picks (lottery tickets as he calls them) for younger, more developed talent as opposed to drafting talent and hoping they turn out, and dealing with growing pains.
It’s worth noting that he is suddenly against trading picks and older players for younger players who are playing on the 1st line, simply because the Oilers did it.
Savoie would not be a first line player on the vast majority of teams in the league.
That he is on the Oilers does nothing more than expose how flawed the roster is.
No it just continues to prove how wrong and flawed you are when it comes to your opinions on player evaluation and hockey in general.
Savoie is playing pretty well and seems to be getting better as time goes on. It’s okay to admit it, you don’t have to try so hard. When you try too hard you start saying things like Draisaitl being the next Joe Colbourne.
They made a choice to get a vet so the $$ were going somewhere, could of been McLeod instead but wasnt. Was it the correct choice? Maybe not in hindsight because of the secondary signing but Savoie is the goods regardless.
Holloway was already “in house” and thus the replacement was in place or better. Thus the offer sheet effect bleeds into this trade.
McDavid
Draisaitl
Dickinson
Nuge
Samanski
Henrique
Twist and turn it however you like the Oilers have replaced McLeod effectively while adding in a 1st line winger on an ELC.
godot has his whipping boys and his golden boys and 1 rarely if ever moves from one category to the other. McLeod was a godot golden boy and Savoie is guilty of being part of the McLeod trade which makes Savoie a new whipping boy.
I do not believe I have ever said anything negative about Matt Savoie. Can you point out where I have?
Sure:
“godot10
March 12, 2026 9:35 am
The idea that Matt Savoie is some kind of error mystifies me.
Legit above average 3rd line centres who are puck transporting monsters and above average PK’ers just entering their prime years are far more valuable and rare than small young skill wingers, who are a dime a dozen.
Savoie is easily replaceable. McLeod was and is not.”
You have Savoie pegged as a dime a dozen, easily replaceable winger. Isn’t Savoie doing better than McLeod at the same age?
I said Savoie was a young small skill winger. I did not say anything bad about him. I merely described him.
I was making a scarcity argument and a time horizon argument, not a bad vs. good argument.
The Oilers alone have Savoie, Howard, Hutson.
In no reality is calling a player a dime a dozen and easily replaceable not a negative.
And it’s not even accurate. You can’t just slap any winger with McDavid and expect results.
Yeah I agree with this. Savoie may end up being an 80 point winger and McLeod a 60 point 2 way C, which is what he is on pace for this season. It will be a fun trade to watch.
What I like about Savoie is he has the ability to play in all situations, this is big. If he was one dimensional, it may change a viewpoint.
Agreed. Like that he can be on a defensive line and PK or with McDavid. Hes versatile.
Been awhile since I’ve posted, but always read. Thank you LT for everything you do.
I was able to attend the Condors v. Stars game in Austin TX on Friday night, 4-1 win (2 EN) for the good guys. Good to see Clattenburg back in the lineup. His hand is still taped together and got a max of 10 shifts in the game, but he plays with ill intentions and is fun to watch. I hope he is called back up when he is back to 100%. He was a difference maker and generated chances from violence for his linemates.
I’m not sure if Viljami Marjala’s original scouting report had anything about his defensive IQ, I only remember reading “fast, smart, playmaker”, but he was seemingly always on the ice in every situation and was terrific defensively breaking up multiple opportunities for the Stars. In my very unqualified opinion, there is a sublime NHL player there in the very near future, maybe as a defensively minded 4C with some offensive pop. Howard was not overly noticeable, but Jarventie was excellent. Roby is massive and so quick that it seemed he had to slow himself down to not be ahead of every play. I’m surprised he hasn’t earned a callup yet; he should be in the NHL next season. Other forwards that were noticeable in a good way, Hutson is definitely the cream of the crop, he created opportunities all the time, and though he didn’t get on the scoreboard, he was in at least 5 scrums and agitated the Stars constantly. Sam Poulin impacted the game as well, scored the first goal backdoor (beautiful pass from Jarventie), and plays like a bull. Think a slower version of Max Jones.
On defense, maybe some will disagree, but my gord Atro Leppanen is a liability. He is not good in his own zone, made a few big gaffes, and if this is an improvement from the beginning of the season, I can’t imagine what he looked like in October. Regula was also awful. Big, slow, many giveaways, and not much positive. Dineen and Akey were both solid, just nothing spectacular. Millman also played but was not on the ice often. The best defenseman, and it isn’t remotely close, is this Carfagna fellow. He reminded me of smaller version of young Oscar Klefbom. Rushed up ice frequently and was always back ahead of the play, snuffed out everything in his own zone, and was clearly the most reliable D late in the game defending the lead.
Tomkins was solid also.
Thanks for this. Great rundown.
Thanks it’s nice to get a live perspective especially when it comes to the value of Clattenburg. Hopefully Connor heals fast as the big club can use a crasher and banger on the 4th line now that Dach is out.
Great scouting report Tks.
The D deployment is a bit of a dilemma without a clear solution. Perhaps, could it the deployment be based on game state?
If leading/tied/early in the game:
Nurse-Bouchard
Ekholm-Murphy (heavy D-starts)
Walman-Emberson
If down:
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Murphy (heavy D-starts)
Walman-Emberson
Love the lines, LT. Hopefully they run with this for more than 15 minutes…
Once Lazar & Dach return there’s other interesting options too.
Oilers D without McDrai this year
Bouch – 36% goals, 49% xGF
Ekholm – 50% goals, 54% xGF
Nurse – 33% goals, 48% xGF
Walman – 28% GF, 42% xGF
Emberson – 52% goals, 46% xGF
Stastney – 30% goals, 47% xGF
there are two dmen that have positive goal differentials without McDrai – Emberson and Ekholm.
I couldn’t remember Ekholm playing with anyone other than Bouch this season but looks like Hes played with Emberson, Nurse, and Stasney all with good results in small samples. As many have suggested splitting him and Bouch up might be the best option. He seems to be good with everyone.
Bouch and Ekholm – 57% goals, 53% xG
Bouch without Ekholm – 57% goals, 53% xG
Ekholm without Bouch – 61% goals, 59% xG
200 mins of data apart each.
Ekholm is still elite, the non McDavid numbers above suggest he is having the better year at evens than Bouchard. I think LT mentioned elsewhere we could try Ekholm and Emberson. I bet that could be a very good second pair. They won’t do it I don’t think but this data says they should absolutely split them up.
I’d try:
Nurse Bouch
Ekholm Murphy
Walman Emberson
Same – I bet Ekholm – Murphy would he excellent
Shelters Walman, if Nurse Bouch can play well should be a great top 4
I share your enthusiasm, LT.
I said yesterday this may be the best iteration of the McDavid Oilers we have seen. There is good scoring depth behind the McDavid/Draisaitl/Hyman/Nuge cluster in Savoie/Podkolzin/Roslovic/Kapanen.
Savoie’s at 1.41 EV points / game but don’t forget the splits; that number is higher if you exclude the first month of the season. He has been on a more or less constant uptick since then. Lot of time in there sprinkled in with guys who can’t score at all, ie Henrique.
The D has improved by eye and by numbers (expected). I never bought Nurse and Walman completely forgetting how to play hockey. The big question on Walman is, can he get healthy? He is looking better.
Bouchard is generational, but did you know Ekholm is at 1.41 EV points/60, third best mark of his career (his two other best years also in Edmonton, the one two years ago in a SSS of 20 games). If Ekholm was 25 we would be gushing about him, but we are ho humming him because he’s 35/36. What a player!
The PK is markedly improved. To the point where I truly believe it can be considered a strength.
Dickenson is getting so many grade A chances. I continue to like that move. He is an effective forechecker for sure and he carries the puck with some confidence, which I did not expect.
👏
The comments section is giving me whiplash. Are we firing the coach and sharpening the pitchforks or not?
Did a hit post by Stamkos that sealed the win really swing the mood that much?
Yes, yes it did.
The moods of Oilerville are mercurial.
Any one of the many posts and crossbars in recent games, for or against, would be enough to a) light the torches and bring out the pitchforks, or b) have us dreaming of the Cup in spring.
Our fan base is either “The Oilers are going to the cup finals!” Or “Rip it down, we need to go for top 3 draft picks again.”
He would be a Norris candidate if there were one for two way D.
I actually think Nurse has played pretty well the last couple of games. Yes, he had one moment last night where his clearing attempt got knocked down and caused some in zone chasing, but I think he’s been solid lately. I believe if I’m going to bang in a player when they are bad, it’s only fair to give them a compliment when they play well.
Him in the STL Overtime was hilarious. All the speed and strength to body through people, none of the hands or sense to capitalize on it. Hey, he’s Warren Foegele!
I know its way to early, but Savoie’s progress reminds me a little like how Hemsky came in during his first year. I hope subsequent years are as bountiful.
Here is a term we should all become familiar with, “regulation wins”, and the Oilers have them in spades.
RW:
COL 39
DAL 33
MIN 25
UTA 26 (1 game in hand)
EDM 25
SEA 25 (2 games in hand)
VGK 23 (1 game in hand)
ANA 22 (1 game in hand)
SJS 20 (3 games in hand)
LAK 17 (2 games in hand)
Closer than it appears.
Only LAK in serious jeopardy
Vegas and Anaheim are the 2 teams I am concerned with and even IF they win there games in hands they are still behind with a month left in the season.
You should also add SEA to your worry list.
If they were to win their 2 games in hand they would be tied with the Oilers in standings points but also might lead in regulation wins.
The addition of Bobby McMann at the deadline seems to have given them a big boost.
There’s that word IF again.
Well, if you are assuming this particular race is already over, I have no idea why you posted about it.
The outcomes of ALL games are “ifs”
They have 2 games against Vegas and 1 the Ducks. Win those and have a similar PTS% and all good. It is in their hands as Connor said
Not when you realize that games in hand do not guarantee a regulation win.
None of these teams, absolutely zero want to meet up with Edmonton in the playoffs. Edmonton has earned this reputation regardless of standings to date.
And perhaps they slide.
But when it comes to worry, go ask the Avalanche who they really do not want to face in the playoffs.
When did they tell you this?
When did the vast majority of NHL teams tell you they wouldn’t try Savoie on their first line?
Which is funny because all anyone could complain about was we had 4 regulation wins a couple months in.
People like to complain.
Soooo 97 and Savoie. That is a thing! Little more finish on chances and the pp clicking a bit and that game would not have been a nail biter.
97 was tremendous last night, a more complete game on both sides. Thank all the lords that Savoie is building chemistry on the top line. Solid player.
I feel for Nurse, he holds the puck just a touch too long to cause a lot of pain sometimes. The hockey sense is just… slow or low…
I love the push back now of the team. Too bad Dach wasn’t still in, he seems to have the crazy/eye a bit… Clatt may be back at some point.
Podz is a beast, so strong, he holds his own when you think ohhhh shite, could be in trouble. Great team guy
I some times wonder if that bad concussion Nurse had in 2024 has had lingering effects ..Ive had a concussion and it can take a long time for all the wiring to start working at normal speed again .
I’ve also wondered that. I think it’s why he really chooses hos spots with fighting
Savoie’s speed/puck digging/quick feeds to 97 has that top line playing noticeably faster than when Nuge is there. I hope he gets a good long look there, and it does give teams a slightly different look from having the same forwards on the top line & PP1
Fade Nurse for whom. Both Walman and Stastney have been worse? Run an aging Ekholm ragged before the playoffs?
Leaning into Nurse Murphy is the right thing to do. It is foolish to make judgements on small sample sizes.
The wise choice is Nurse-Bouchard, Walman-Murphy.
So you also want to fade Bouchard?
Nurse-Bouchard work well together.
Maybe, but it might drag down Bouch defensively. Ekholm stabilizes him and lets him make brilliant plays while covering defensively to my eye. Nurse has very low hockey sense/IQ but an albatross contract. His boneheaded brain farts on defense combined with Bouch’s from time to time could derail games even more. Hopefully Coffey is helping with the defense more now and Ingram is calming everyone down. Nice to see finally.
Ekholm & Bouchard have chemistry while Nurse & Murphy are still developing their chemistry hopefully it will arrive soon to be impactful. Sticking with those combos might pay dividends.
Ekholm & Bouchard are tried & tested. I wanted to see them split, but now I’m thinking that Murphy can be what Ekholm has been for Bouchard for Nurse. If that makes any sense.
Bouchard is playing anywhere from 21 minutes to 28 minutes a night and more often above 24.
Fading him is not a bad thing.
I’ve never seen Bouchard show any signs of fatigue, in game or over the course of a season/playoff run – he seems tireless to me.
I think we need to trust in Nurse just like we may need to trust in Jarry.
There’s no fading anybody, it’s all hands on deck the rest of the way.
Walman is not playing well enough for that assignment LT. Maybe one day but not right now.
I think Nurse’s game is coming along now. Give him the minutes. A guy like Murphy is who he should have been playing with all along.
I agree with you on Nurse. Just curious what quality of comp specifically he’s facing with Murphy and what their xGF% is together given the encouraging number last night. If their role is to take on more elites and come out a little below even, that specifically could have value. Then fade him otherwise?
Walman back to the right is also not ideal. If he and Emberson could give anything like he and Klingberg did last season and we had 2 outscoring D pairs, it would be outstanding. They can be the “Shark duo”…
Emberson has become a valued member of the D group.
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Murphy
Walman-Emberson
We live and die with those guys.
I posted under oddspell’s post below yours. Their xG and chance differentials are very good. Shooting 0% when they are on the ice.
I have no issues with the coach pushing Nurse-Murphy at evens. The small sample size has them greater than the sum of their parts by underlying stats, and they need to develop as much synergy as possible before the playoffs start.
Factoring in Bouchard playing 9 minutes of special teams last night, and Ekholm’s upcoming 36th birthday, I can see why Nurse-Murphy is getting a push.
Speaking of defenceman, Walman seems to have found his mojo again, and speaking of resurgences, Frederic is beginning to look like the player we traded for.
I’d say we’re heating up at the right time, but let’s try and string a streak together first.
Good eye. They are 51% xGF and 60% in high danger chances in almost 60 minutes. Currently sporting an 895 PDO from a 0% shooting percentage. Good results playing with Dickinson, Samanski amd Draisaitl but just arent scoring.
And if he’s playing with Murphy I imagine he’s playing tough comp, though puckIQ hasn’t updated since Murphy’s second game.
Ducks 8-0 in the shoot out is doing all the work here.
Ranked by wins in regulation, Anaheim in 10th in the conference.
On a related note, the Oilers are tied for 4th with 25 RW with Cup contender Minnesota (and Seattle) and one behind Utah(?) who has 26. The St. Louis breakdown denied us a tie for third.
It is heartening to see the coach recognize the value Savoie brings to the top line finally, and the balance it gives the team to have 93 do third line lifting. While Savoie may never pot 30 goals in a season, he understands how to get the puck to 97 on the move, and how to get to open spaces for a pass. And he also hunts down pucks in all three zones, which frees up 97 and 18 from doing that all the time too.
The other thing that has been nice the last few games is watching the team play hard for each other when they feel liberties are being taken. The pack mentality does a lot for team building, especially when they don’t run around looking for a guy, but make sure to take a number and hit/rough up when there is a chance.
Finally, it is nice to see the PK rounding into form as we finish the year. Too one and a half forevers, but it is happening, and all the kills against a top PP team last night were further evidence of the growth. Just in time.
Savoie is fun to watch. A worker bee humming along, working his but off all over the ice, he makes little plays that lead to larger positive plays.
A smart worker bee, can’t remember the last time I saw him get popped.
They’re gearing up for the playoffs. The PK is trending upward, the forward depth is strong,
the defensive depth is not quite there with Emberson out. Sure hope those six Dmen can stay healthy because I wonder if Stastney, Regula and what ever they have in Bakersfield
can contribute at the level required during a long playoff run which I’m still seeing as a reality with this team. I forgot to mention the goaltending but what a story Connor Ingram is becoming.