One of the things I value in life is smart people gifting the normals valuable information and calculations. Not everyone can make math dance, not everyone can see the math perfectly. It takes a village of smartness. That’s how the rest of us learn and grow. Please read this.
I have had the pleasure of interacting with many of the best hockey analytics people on the planet. The thing I value most about those conversations is the clarity delivered by these individuals. Lots of analysis, plenty of certainty, along with the knowledge that making bets gives you the edge but does not guarantee a result.
David Johnson produced the best mathy website back in the day, just a lovely site that showed you why Brandon Davidson was a better player than you thought. The truth and the way, math version. I’ve been reading Johnson’s work lately and he’s once again carving new roads into the collective.
This morning, I stumbled across a website called Hockey Alpha and wanted you to know about it. The individual who drives the blog is thinking new thoughts, like measuring net-front presence (Zach Hyman does well) in which they introduce the dandy phrase “crease tunnel” to the reader.
Lots of cool stuff in the player profiles too. Have a lash at Connor McDavid’s “competition faced” versus “support received” and have a giggle. I saw this information on Blue Sky courtesy Prashanth Iyer, who is a smart fellow too all by his lonesome. You can do what you will with these sites, but I am thankful for these two reading options.
I’m not a math genius, the numbers don’t pop for me. That doesn’t mean I have to stare at a damned wall all day, I want to learn. If you would also like to know what the smart people are doing, at least on a public level, I recommend both sites.
On the Lowdown today, Shawn Belle will join us to talk about getting ready for training camp. Shawn is a regular on the Lowdown now and a fantastic resource. It’s also the round table and we’ll do a complete breakdown of the MLB trade deadline (Donovan Paulson may cry) and have the usual shenanigans. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and YouTube.
Oilers midsummer roster check-in: Waiver worries and waiting for the impact addition
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7486937/2026/08/04/oilers-roster-competition-trades-wright-marchenko/
Awwww, shucks LT. You were setting us up for this, “Where is GMSB going to find high draft picks?”
I like this idea much more than a Kirby Dach who’s been hurt/struggling.
ps. I’m wondering if you’ve plugged your three young talents into the new math sites, and how they compare?
They are, as a group, not open to advanced math as it relates to hockey. It’s good for radio, since they don’t believe in it. It’s bad for our future, though. 🙂
Agreed. Just listened to their luke warm take on analytics.
But the three talents I was referring to were the on-ice talents you’ve put on parade for us : Dach, Poitras, Wright.
Maybe tomorrow ask your on-air talent about how they’d rank these three, by eye and by math?
Since they fade the math, I don’t believe you would find the answer interesting.
Kirby is only 25 he can skate when he is healthy he’s a handful for the opposition. I would love to see a Colton-Kirby-Frederic at playoff time. Keep the faith.
I’m with you on the sentiment of it. I’m not sold on KD as a player, by math or eye-test/history, is worth a trade. Unless HuGo sell very low.
Bowman drafted both brothers time to bring Kirby home later this year. Boooook it ……….
This should be booked along the same lines as Howard used as a sweetener to move Nurse was booked.
Acquiring Kirby Dach at $3.6MM would be an egregious move of cap space.
They’ll sell Kirby at 50% if they sell him. MTL knows more than anyone what he can be worth and what he is worth. It’s an excellent use of cap space for them to keep him and see how things pan out. He isn’t really a surefire $3.6M player but he has draft pedigree and someone will pay something to MTL that only costs them a bit of cap space.
Kirby Dach can no longer skate at the level he once did, even when not actively injured.
The Habs could not play him at center.
The Habs fans were very frustrated by this player last season – they think he is poor 2-ways and just not always commit fully.
I would take a flayer on the player at near $1MM but, at $3.6MM, there is zero chance he’s acquired but the Oilers.
This is not the same player the Hawks drafted and who played against the Oilers in that playoff series – aggregate injuries have lowered his ceiling massively.
I seen a different player than you did. If Kirby so terrible why did the Habs sign him? If Kirby line mates struggle with his fast pace then he would be a candidate to buy low near the trade deadline. Then sign both Dach brothers for cheap the next 3 years. Dach brothers-Frederic-Jones another skilled heavyweight and we are no longer the punching bag of the League. This is finally Bowman’s we now have smart close the gap D with so many more turnovers then we’ve seen since 2006. Bowman finally went out and now has competent goaltending.
The Habs qualified him on a 2-way contract which is very rare for an established NHL player – that tells us something right there.
I believe you are seeing the Kirby Dach that played the play-in series against the Oilers in 2020.
That player no longer exists.
You sure can stretch the goalpost your almost as good as H.H
by providing fact?
Fact is the Habs qualified him. They know there’s a power forward in him. If he struggles his old boss that picked him and his brother should swoop in and buy him on a low and watch him and his brother have a playoff to remember.
Where are you seeing Dach is on a 2-way contract? Per Puckpedia his minors salary is the same as his NHL salary.
They qualified him on a 2-way contact, he didn’t accept and they went to arb.
He’s not on a 2-way contract but the org tried.
Its not amicable with Dach and the org (nor Dach and the fans) – from everything I’ve heard and read.
Ok gotcha
Kirby Dach was a 94th Percentile skater last year. I wouldn’t count out his skating. https://www.nhl.com/nhl-edge/skaters/kirby-dach-8481523
Dach is 25 and he can skate when he’s on his game he’s a very good power forward. You’ll see me in row 1 wearing a Clattenburg jersey when the Dach brothers are on a line with Clattenburg facing the Panthers next year. Bowman wanted Colton and I see Bowman going after his bro at the deadline
I look forward to seeing you there 🙂
Isn’t retirement great? Nobody telling you what to do, speaking your mind freely, with the best part is you have time to do what you want when you want. The only drawback is the body. No more parasailing
I would suggest that looking at a one-time speed burst to put him there isn’t really indicative – his average speed was below 50th percentile…..
Shane Wright would be a very nice addition if Bowman can get him “buy low”. Of course, Marchenko would be very exciting but acquisition cost plus the fact he’s going to need, what $12MM going forward after this season – doesn’t seem like a reasonably likely add to me.
Stauff alludes to the potential for a Stastney for depth right shot center trade but that’s pretty much all we might expect prior to the season. Stauff says its a lock they will acquire a top 6 player but that’s in-season, he speak to using cap accrual in that process.
That leaves us with a set roster except for the 12F/13F forward spots. Subect to that small trade, everything else is set.
We KNOW they will have 3 goalies on the roster and we know who they are. That leaves 7D and 13F.
The 7D are 100% locked and set. There is no chance that Emberson nor Shakir M. see the waiver wire and those two will compete for 3RD minutes. Stastney and Regula, is not traded, will be on the waiver wire. They both likely clear but there is some risk there. I believe Stastney getting $1.5MM is a bit of “waivers protection” and Regula cleared last year. I think Regula can play in the NHL but he’s blocked in this org.
There are 11F locked and that leaves the following five battling for 3 roster spots (i.e. 2 need to be assigned/waived and assigned if not claimed): Joseph/Janmark/Jones/Howard/Samanski.
I think Joseph is close to a lock – he’s DJ Smith’s guy and he’s fast, good defensively, great on the PK and has two prior seasons of 30+ points. He’s the Janmark replacement.
I truly believe that Samanski should be on this team – his arrows are straight up including a nice playoffs (PIMs aside) and World Championships. I think there is more offence in there and they should just put him between Dach and Frederic and let them roll 10 minutes per night. With that said, tea leaves have Samanski heading to Bako which I think is a mistake.
I think Jones and Samanski are on the outside looking in but think it should be Jones and Janmark.
One potential trade that keeps popping up in the back of my brain is if Bowman can take advantage of Anaheim’s situation where (1) they have a dearth of NHL d-men and (2) they need to clear some cap space in order to get Gauthier under contract for this season at a number he’ll accept.
Can the Oilers get them to take Stastney plus (maybe a Marjala or a mid-round pick) for Ryan Poehling? I acknowledge that is not good value for the Ducks but Stastney can play 3LD in the NHL and this clears up some cap space for them?
The Ducks LD depth chart is stacked.
LaCombe
Mintyukov
Hinds
Moore
Stian Solberg, drafted in the 1st round in 2023, is widely expected to make the roster.
A 26 year old tweener like Statsney won’t move the needle.
The Ducks have been actively shopping Frank Vatrano to clear up cap space.
No-one in the hockey world honestly thinks the Ducks LD chart is stacked. My goodness. The Ducks defensive group is widely acknowledged to be a massive issue heading in to this season.
Yes, hoping that 20 year old d-man make the team is generally what teams looking to move in to contender status do with success.
Of course, unless one is looking to be dishonest in conversation with a clear agenda of trying to find anything negative towards the Oilers.
Didn’t you know that every other teams unproven defense draft pics are suspected to be up for the Norris this season…. lol what a clown
Who in the “hockey world” thinks US Olympian Jackson LaCombe and former 19th overall pick, 22 year old Pavel Mintyukov are below average!
Name names if you are presuming to speak for them if you’re engaging in “honest” conversation.
Of note, Mintyukov was drafted one spot below your heart throb Matt Savoie in 2022.
Not only does he lead Savoie in NHL games played 204-87 but has also outscored him 69 – 38 and he’s a DEFENSEMAN.
As for Solberg, I suggest you educate yourself before passing judgement,
Here’s a scouting report on the 6’2” 205 LD poised to make his debut this up coming season.
https://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/2024-nhl-scouting-report-video-grades-stian-solberg-d-valerenga-ehl/
Can I get you a Snickers?
I believe their defensive group consists of more than 2 players – one being a legit stud and a nice up and coming d-man that will be asked to play ALOT more at 5 on 5 than he was last season.
After that, with the loss of Trouba, Carlson and Owen Z. rational observers have questions about the defensive group as a whole.
We were discussing LD since you asserted they might be interested in trading firvac27 year old tweener with all of 117 NHL games on his resume.
You can find better D on the free agent list every season.
Their RD is certainly more sketchy but they do have 4 significant propects vying for those jobs.
Stastney actually seems like a good stop gap if the 20 year old that you say is going to make the team, but was -17 in the AHL last year, isnt ready. Like maybe they don’t want their D to be half rookies. He is cheap and was good for Nashville and good for us when on the third pair
You cited a depth chart including Tyson Hinds and Ian Moore as stacked – there is to be no honest discourse after that garbage statement.
Not to mention that you completely ignore the entire presume of the trade including the cap structuring and, no, “trying to move Vatrano” doesn’t equate to actually doing it – clearly.
I’ve heard that Anaheim has the 18 best prospects in the league ready to step into 3LD. Making anaheims 3rd pair better than most teams top pair.
Or so I’ve heard.
Edit: fibs beat me to it.
I think their target is Mark Kastelic.
Yup, seems like a likely target.
Would mean three of the following would be off the opening roster (unless another forward is moved out which is unlikely): Janmark/Jones/Joseph/Samanski/Howard.
Acquiring Kastelic would likely be the final nail in Samanski’s opening day roster hopes (he’ll be called up) and I suspect Jones and, maybe Janmark, would be the other two on the outs.
I dunno…now I’ve got crease tunnel on the brain. I’m stuck between tumescence and starting a new band.
How about splitting the difference and starting a new band called Tunescence.
Words cannot express how proud I am of you.
I wonder what the 2 units for the PK will be under D.J. I’m really excited to see an aggressive PK. What’s the over under that Savoie-Joseph have 10 PK breakaways?
Somebody signed Josh Brown and he never got played. 6’4
Bowman orchestrates a strange deal that brings back Trent Frederic, Max Jones and Petr Hauser.
6’3, 6’3, 6’3 and all over 200 pounds
Last season he wants Dickinson but makes sure he also gets Colton Dach 6’4
Plus Dickinson and Murphy can play rugged.
It is no mystery what Bowman feels the team needed. With Babcock being a Bowman hire, I think Bowman hold more influence on player deployment this year.
We need 1 more big skilled top 6ish forward. If the cost is the Iceman so be it pump and dump.
Babcock will be running the team, not Bowman.
Top remaining NHL free agents a month past the start of free agency:
Vladimir Tarasenko
Eeli Tolvanen
Michael Bunting
Patrik Laine
Evander Kane
James van Riemsdyk
David Perron
Reilly Smith
Jonathan Drouin
Philipp Kurashev
Tyson Jost
Adam Henrique
Tanner Pearson
Brandon Saad
Luke Glendening
Kevin Hayes
Gustav Nyquist
Pavol Regenda
Calle Jarnkrok
Curtis Lazar
John Klingberg
Logan Stanley
Nick Blankenburg
Ben Hutton
Matt Grzelcyk
Carson Soucy
Mike Reilly
Jeff Petry
Nick Leddy
Pierre-Olivier Joseph
Adam Boqvist
Connor Ingram
Cam Talbot
Matt Murray
James Reimer
Petr Mrazek
Hard to believe EDM pays Jarry $5.2MM for 2 more years & started unsigned Ingram in the playoffs 3 months ago. Chef’s kiss – asset management GMSB.
Bunting has one stinker year, but probably still useful. Kapanen would block him in EDM.
Good ol’ Bunting. I remember when there was a lot of discourse over how the Oilers should have went after Bunting instead of signing Hyman to his initial 7 year contract. “Smart teams like Toronto are going after younger players like Bunting who can do what Hyman does but for cheaper.”
It would be great if the Oilers do end up with Bunting and turn him into Hyman 2.0.
Is Eeli the best choice here? Balance of responsibility and scoring? Could play anywhere. Or do we want to fill a specific need?
Eeli is the best available. Grades out as a high-end 3rd liner with strong defensive attributes.
That guy should be making $4M, but maybe he signs a 1-year with a good team to push his value next summer.
John Klingberg turned down an 8-year $56M contract with Dallas back in 2022. He wanted $8M / season while the Stars offered $7M x 8.
Not only did he forfeit something like $40M in earnings, Dallas’ cap would’ve been royally screwed the past few seasons.
That dodged bullet has vaulted the Stars to the lofty position of Conference Finals doormats and first-round exits.
I am a Nick Blankenberg fan, small player, who packs a big punch. Looks like his numbers were poor in Colorado, but with 4 other RHD on the roster, who as collective didn’t miss many games, I am guessing he played mostly on his off-side.
Just an observation.
My first Lowtide post I wrote very sheepishly and then hit the send button. Ten minutes later I was destroyed.
Somebody jumped in and mathed me to death. Not quite, but they pulled actual data, facts and weaved together such a logical argument I immediately conceded my point. .
Im not mathy but I love when somebody pulls stats and presents facts. Helps me see, makes me think. Thank you to those who spend time doing this.
One of my first I got tore apart for improper explanation of the term ‘Jultzing’.
I learned we can disagree all we want but sometimes you’re just wrong and that’s okay too!
The trick on math is context checking the numbers people throw. Not always easy.
From my eye test, and aged-brain memory, I feel the Oilers score very few traditional point shot/slot tip goals, and give up more than their fair share, in recent years.
Of course we all have nightmares regarding the low to high play with an attacker all alone in the slot for a clean danger look – perhaps the Oilers have not respected the need for net front battle, both sides of the ice, the last while?
I agree with both points. Absolutely it seems they seem disinterested in the net front battles. And it apears coached to me, as incoming players adapted to the Oilers way, particularly on defence.
All goals count the same.
Connor and Leon do what they do, which is generally high skill goals. Then the opposition take a point shot and rush the net. Evened up. Sigh.
Also I think the Oilers became too predictable last year in their attack. Definitely need less perimeter time cumulating in a low percentage point shot. Need some change.
Perhaps. Per NHL edge they do attack the netfront and greater high danger percentage.
Can’t tell for sure if it’s tips or not but in a comparison to Carolina they had essentially the same inner slot chances last year. (722-723)
Carolina had more mid and long range shots. Unfortunately NHL edge only provides ‘For’ stats, not against.
The high slot tip would be useful. I think Nuge has done that. It doesn’t take a big battle to do it either. If it gets through, the goalie essentially has no way to track.
Cool site, we’ll see more dynamic software like this pop up out of no where with AI. Another question on how reliable and scalable these sort of sites are but it is interesting! Do they have access to stats we don’t on hockeyalpha or are they just using the NHL Stats?
AI is fantastic at parsing large complex data sets, but it still needs guidance on what to focus in on. There is a lot of value in a site like this one for bringing context/nuance to complex statistics. (Lowetide has probably already been scrubbed several times over by AI)
Please don’t tell OP Bouchard is ranked as the 20th best defender.
Inside HH’s head, with fingers crossed: “Please nobody look at the Playmaker leaderboard where Bouchard is #2 in the entire league after only Nate McKinnon…”
Might want to move him to the wing,
Bouchard led the next defenseman by 14 [!] points last season.
The site owner would have had to put some weird English on the stats to fade Bouchard to 20th.
Site looks cool. Hat tip to Claude code on the design.
Evaluating NHL defensemen is one of the most challenging tasks for an analytics model.
In the old days, when a new stat or metric came out, the first thing we did was check to see if it passed the smell test test.
Bouchard at 20 raised my eyebrow. Werenski at 16 did as well.
Those here who know me, know that I liked the Ghost since we acquired Duncan Keith, but the ghost at 13. 😂
The d model needs some adjustments.
Site looks great. Quinn Hughes isn’t even there so I’d suspect it needs some tweaking.
Otherwise agrees with eyes. Fox being wasted, Clarke above Bouch will give HH lots of fodder, etc.
Would want to know the methodology. Can’t be pure offensive without QH so maybe they’re predicting a Clarke breakout? I’ve wanted to trade for him while knowing him and Bouch would be competing for the same minutes which is fine. Get good puck movers keep good puck movers. Live with the brain farts.
I like what Dom’s model does.
The only thing I hate about Dom’s work is the user interface or lack thereof. So hard to find the ratings, searching through his past articles.
Dom’s model provides a rating on past seasons’ performance and a prediction for the future seasons, these are different things, right. Factoring in age and historical performance etc.
If you’re going to say the ghost is the 13th best defenseman in NHL, what does that mean? The guy’s 32 already. Or Josi, for that matter, at 7th, he’s already 36.
How old was Nik Lidstrom when he retired?
A few elite D defy Father Time .
Gonna troll you like you troll others. Bobby Orr didn’t make it to 30.
Just an FYI, this is what you often sound like. It sounds ridiculous, huh?
Hughes missed 7 games to injury, changed teams and systems.
He scored 53 points in 48 games (a 90 point pace) in Minny.
Pretty sure he will move up the rankings next season.
This made me laugh. Thank you for telling me Quinn Hughes is good at hockey DSF.
damn, these goalposts are moving fast once again lol…
Clarke took huge steps defensively last and that reflected in his ranking.
If you look closely, you will notice he went on a shot blocking rampage as the season progressed.
Thanks LT! Just ‘playing’ around quickly on the hockeyalpha site. I noticed the “Defense” for McDavid and started looking up other players. Began with Leon and moved on. I liked the use of Top Comparables list. Noticed the use of Dual Threat (McDavid) vs. Playmaker (Eichel) and Two-Way Force (Eriksson Ek). I think this was my ‘numbers pop’ moment.