There’s one giant helluva lot we don’t know about the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers, but the depth chart at right defense is going to see a large increase in population. Evan Bouchard will turn pro fall 2019, and as of yesterday, the club secured late blooming Joel Persson to an NHL contract. Added to Adam Larsson, Matt Benning and Ethan Bear, Bouchard and Persson represent the “ridiculous” end of the famous sublime phrase. Who plays in Edmonton next year? Bakersfield? Let’s have a look.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton brought it yesterday, there’s a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group. Outstanding offer is here.
- New Lowetide: Finding a path to the playoffs may involve reckless use of future assets by the Oilers
- New Jonathan Willis: An Oilers blueprint for the 2019 NHL free agency period
- Tyler Dellow: A deeper look at Connor McDavid and the Oilers’ 5-on-5 offensive changes under Ken Hitchcock
- Corey Pronman: 2019 NHL Draft midseason rankings
- Jonathan Willis: An Oilers blueprint for the 2019 NHL trade deadline.
- Lowetide: Edmonton’s 2019 entry draft plans may change with new GM but needs are clear
- Lowetide: Caleb Jones has impressive first showing in the NHL with Oilers.
- Tyler Dellow: Four questions that the Oilers should be asking candidates for the GM job
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: New Oilers caretaker Keith Gretzky caught between earning playoff berth and keeping future assets
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Goalless Tobias Rieder hopes to follow Zack Kassian and Milan Lucic and end his offensive funk.
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects, Winter 2018
JOEL PERSSON
He’s an interesting player. A year ago, much of the credit for his season was placed on his impressive team (including Vancouver Canucks winger Elias Pettersson). This season, Persson offense remains strong and he’s getting all kinds of credit for the offensive output.
- 2017-18: 51, 6-28-34 (.667) 94 shots, 17:06
- 2018-19: 37, 4-19-23 (.621) 119 shots, 19:22
Some encouraging numbers in year two, including an increase in playing time and shots on goal. I ranked him No. 9 in my winter top 20, quoting radio color man Mike Zanier (former Oiler!): “6-foot-1, he is pretty quick, quicker than last year, sees the ice well, makes good passes and runs the power play well. He has a good shot when he uses it. I see no problem for him being able to jump in and compete for a job.”
EVAN BOUCHARD
Bouchard did some impressive things in training camp and early in the regular season with the Oilers. He scored his first goal, had a Corsi 5-on-5 percentage of 54 percent (in just a small sample, 71 minutes) and impressed the hell out of me with outlet passes.
- 2017-18 OHL: 67, 25-62-87 (1.30) 4.43 shots-per-game, 76-65 5-on-5 GD
- 2018-19 OHL: 23, 8-21-29 (1.26) 4.04 shots-per-game, 31-11 5-on-5 GD
Bouchard is running in place but it’s a damned nice place. He should win the race among this trio without a throw based on draft pedigree. If Edmonton sends Bouchard to Bakersfield it will be due to defensive reads, urgency of recovery and foot speed. Oilers fans should be hoping for major improvement in these areas. Notice the 5-on-5 goal differential.
ETHAN BEAR
Bear and Persson have some things in common (no draft pedigree, can pass well) and should by all rights trail Bouchard by some distance beginning this fall (and continuing from there). Bear has some NHL experience, but hasn’t been able to get back to Edmonton this year after starting the campaign (but not playing) in the show.
- 2017-18 AHL: 37, 6-12-18 (.486) 1.49 shots-per-game 17-25 5-on-5 GD
- 2018-19 AHL: 37, 2-17-19 (.514) 1.62 shots-per-game 30-23 5-on-5 GD
That’s a nice recovery in 5-on-5 goal differential year over year. At this point in his development, you’d like Bear to be pushing for an NHL job. He was injured early in the season but his most recent performances (2-8-10 in his past 12 games) suggest he may be rounding into form.
Chiarelli would have been looking at forwards. That’s not a long list. Chicago isn’t going to trade Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane or Alex DeBrincat. Still, EF used the word “big”
- L Brandon Saad. He has 15 goals and costs $6 million times two years after this one.
- C Dylan Strome. He’s playing well in Chicago, so unlikely. However, he’s an offensive talent.
OFFLOADING TALENT
The deadline should be a time for Keith Gretzky to trade away some of his talent, smoothing the way for summer acquisitions. I know fans want Brandon Manning and Ryan Spooner dealt, but there are some players with more value who could be sent away in the next few weeks.
- R Zack Kassian. I like this player a lot, but at $1.95 million he’s a player the Oilers can offload and replace for about $1 million less.
- L Tobias Rieder. He’s RFA at the end of the year, and honestly I’d like to see him back. That said, if the value is there, Edmonton needs to consider.
- RD Alex Petrovic. I think the Oilers have too many blue and Petrovic will have value.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
It’s Bell Let’s Talk day, so we’ll bring you a monster show with a lot of positive thoughts about mental health. I wish we knew in 1975 what we know now, but better late than never. Scheduled to appear:
- Nick Dika, The Arkells. The band is in town this week, we’ll chat about rock and roll and the Blue Jays.
- Scott Cullen, The Athletic. Scott has been very open about depression and the impact of events on it. He also talks about building your way back to a better place.
- Jon Campbell, OddsShark. Super Bowl betting! They bet on everything!
- Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Oilers on bye week, will they make a move?
- Jeremy Cummins, Yegtalks. He started Yegtalks after having his own struggle with Mental Health and has given back much to the community.
10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Cassandra,
Yeah but who’s taller?
I appreciate where you are coming from but wonder what other change you see coming from more failure? Do you see the OBC in jeopardy? They have themselves so insulated I cannot see how?
Chiarelli is gone, Hitch is temporary…..just not clear where you see see this better future with continued failure.
I thought Valimaki looked good in those first 20 games.
Obviously the Flames coaching staff thought so too. He beat out Kulak, Anderson and Kylington to start the year.
Does nobody else refer to Johnny Gaudreau as Johnny Cocky?
Not because he’s, you know, particularly cocky or anything just he’s a Flame and its a fairly obvious.
I’m not saying that Valimaki was awful – just that the numbers show, at 5 on 5, a 40% goal differential (8GF/12GA) and his relative possession numbers were are strong negative (relative to the team) and his RelGF% was -20. This was in sheltered 3rd pairing minutes with 68% offensive zone starts.
I’m not trying to say he was terrible but simply that I wouldn’t be using him as a shinning example of a d-man not needing AHL time – it seems that he is struggling a bit to move the puck in the right direction relative to his team and its ending up in the back of his net moreso that with the other players.
A bag? AND A SEPTIC TANK???
To dream, to dream.
OriginalPouzar,
Agreed. That, along with relocation, represents the worst possible outcome for the team.
I won’t root against the team, but perhaps it takes that kind of shock to motivate the owner to finally clear the decks, and modernize management operations enough to build some sustained success.
Johnny Yahoo sounds about right
OriginalPouzar,
No reference to Bouchard by me, just a general comment .
Valimaki played the first 22 games, was -3. Phlems were 13-8-1, nope, not good enough.
I care about Katz’s wallet if decreased revenues leads to meddling and a mandate on our new GM regarding fast-tracking the re-tool.
True. Timing is everything. Does missing the playoffs lead to a change that means a better future? Does making them mean more of the same?
It’s up to Katz. What is happening now isn’t good enough, we know it, they know it, but not much has changed really in the last forever.
I think missing is better. I don’t care about Katz wallet, he has received enough from Edmonton fans/taxpayers in cash.
The only thing I would care about financially is bankruptcy, but as a high revenue team that isn’t likely. Katz may have over extended himself with all of the changes to his business dealings in a short period, but if he has he has to sell, there will be buyers.
Hopefully good.
Bishop cartwheels to a shutout. Obvious dive is obvious.
BUF can’t manage a single goal – Bishop leads DAL to a 1-0 win.
Scungilli Slushy,
Playoffs this year is a bit of an organizational paradox, isn’t it?
If they make the dance, the draft picks are automatically later in the round. They gain valuable experience as a team (or at least the returning core). Playoff revenue for Katz, and atmosphere for the city. But what happens if they get bounced in four straight, or in five? Does that have a greater negative impact long term?
If they don’t finish top-eight, they’re sure to pick from a better crop of players at the draft. The anti-Detroit model, if you will. Better waiver eligibility the following season. Definitely doesn’t help shape the “culture” of winning the team so desperately needs. Another reason for quality free agents to avoid signing, or key players on expiring contracts (RNH, Larsson, to name a couple) become averse to signing extensions.
Biggest problem with losing, is the upsides of not making the playoffs really are contingent on having a GM and scouting staffs in place who are able to accurately assess and identify organizational needs and implement effective solutions. Perhaps the owner gets squirrely in his thirst for profit, and makes some rash decisions not based on winning hockey games. Maybe those rash moves work out… maybe they don’t.
Personally speaking, I just want the team to win. Winning washes away this pervasive stench of failure. Even if we go on a tear to end the year and miss out by a point or few, but end the year winning I’d be reasonably content. I want to see more prolonged stretches of competent — no, dominant — play by the Oilers. The only way to change the outside perception of the team is to start winning, and do so consistently, more often. End the year strong, so as to start next season on the same foot.
And Oilers for whatever reason are bad at at afternoon games. Always have been. Given time change it’s morning for the players.
In playoffs or out, who knows what is actually best for the future, because the cup this year is very unlikely.
If they win or lose both, what is better?
Gerta Rauss,
Cool. Thanks for that!
Saturday’s game scares me. 1st game in 10 days and a midday start to boot. Philly will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. If memory serves me correct, teams coming out of the break don’t fair too well.
Melvis,
I stumbled upon some old CDs last week and I’m working through them again
This is one of my favs and I thought to myself..”this bass line is swingin’ it’s dick in the dirt,I betcha Melvis would enjoy this”
I don’t know what possesed Matt Johnson to release an album of Hank Williams covers, but here it is
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KotbuiWUG8
the louder the better
Yup, If they’d take him, or TO who are apparently wanting meat in the lineup. Luc is a summer deal probably.
I like what Zach brings but that contrition is fading daily.
* Or you could say contribution
Awesome. I thought they should have used him as a winger back then.
Kirill Tulopov?
Yup. But Crosby needs a Kassian riding shotgun.
They look like hornets. Bolts don’t want to get stung.
Chatter about Gagner being acquired is not a good idea. They already have Rattie, who is a better shooter.
Another slower non physical smart player isn’t needed, just play the one they have. Or Spooner.
If Hitch isn’t back Spooner might be re-motivated and become useful with a coach that plays players to their strengths.
Benn with a goal and the Stars are up 1-0 mid-way through the first period.
Those outfits are the Pitts tho! Horrendous!
Typical lawyer! Just pick a side and stick to it, man! 🙂
I’m catching a bit of the Bolts / Pens. Hitch is straight up wrong about the style he wants to play.
They play with so much speed and tempo, and assertively, the puck isn’t stationary long enough to do pre-last lockout board wars. They can’t hold, they are worried about hitting now.
It’s a bygone system. Time for a GM with a modern plan and a coach that can implement it and use the existing roster. Tempo, speed, assertiveness, let talent put them over the top. It is a gift of spectacular proportions, the Connor gift.
Professor Q,
Thanks. So I guess I’m back to square 1: hating the nickname and disliking the Flames fans for using it. I think?
Yes, Klefbom counts against the cap on IR, as does Sekera.
So, when Klef is activated we are at 22 bodies and remain $960K over the cap an in to the LTIR cushion.
When Sekera is activated, that’s 23 men on the roster (only 22 bodies because he will be on his conditioning stint in the AHL but still counting against the 23).
Issue is they are $960K over the cap. The most they will be able to get rid of via an AHL assignment is $1,075,000 – they can get that relief (and be cap compliant) by waiving and sending down Manning or Petrovic (once they clear). Sending Gravel down doesn’t get us compliant as he’s at $800K.
Manning or Petrovic down gets us there but we can’t recall anyone and will literally have 21 bodies.
I’m not sure what else they might be planning if Sekera is indeed going to be activated to play for the Condors tomorrow night (and Saturday).
I had to get up in the morning at 10 o clock at night, half an hour before I went to bed.
Sure, I don’t disagree but, also, sometimes players just have off years and then get back to their historical norms. Spooner was having a poor season and, after the trade, he got a few games with Nuge, didn’t produce and then he’s received essentially no top 6 time. Sometimes even lining up to play with Brodz and Joe G. as his wingers. Maybe he will/would never produce in Edmonton but he hasn’t been given a chance, at all. He’s been put in a position to fail.
This team is so void of scoring on the wings, I just don’t know how this doesn’t require a solid look
You very well could be right – the coaching staff does seem to like him – clearly over Gravel.
With that said, here is the left side depth chart next year:
Klef
Nurse
Sekera
Russell
Jones/Manning
Manning/Jones
Of course, as it stands how, Russell likely gets moved to the right side but the left side is quite full.
We may get a sense of the plan in the next few weeks as both Klef and Sekera will be activated. Sekera won’t be on the team for 8-10 days after activation and they don’t need to send anyone down to make room on the 23 but they are going to need to clear almost $1M. My guess its Petrovic but it could be Manning.
Assuming Manning stays on the roster, it will be interesting to see what happens when Sekera comes up – they will likely send down another d-man and recall a forward.
WIll Manning stay in the lineup? I can’t imagine. Will he stay on the roster?
Klef/Larsson
Nurse/Russell
Sekera/Benning
Manning (Gravel/Petrovic)
When I was a kid, brown paper bagging it didn’t mean lunch. It meant the bum fodder in the back house. The preferred read was an Eatons catalogue.
And before you use my name in vain, I’ll have you know the Fat Melvis™ is a premium pre roll. Currently available in your favorite sativa, indica , and hybred strains.
Also comes in three sizes. Small, medium, and incorrigible.
We would need WSH to retain on that trade as, with Sekera’s impending activation, unless something more material happens, we are actually looking at running with 21 warm bodies in Edmonton to get cap compliant (roster would be at 22 b/c Sekera counts on the 23 man while in the AHL) – they likely send Manning or Petrovic down to clear the $1,075,000 of cap space and the Oilers would be left with apx $100K.
Talbot for Burakovsky – Oiler can retain to make it cap neutral.
The only reason to acquire this player though is to play him in the top 6. If Hitch won’t do it, there is no point.
He needs to be qualified at $3.25M next year so, if he’s an Oiler, he needs to be stapled to McDavid or Drai for the rest of the season to find out if he can regain his production from a few year’s back and earn his QO with a view of being a top 6 winger.
If he doesn’t earn the QO, he isn’t tender and becomes a UFA (or they negotiate a lower AAV prior to the deadline to tender).
Must’ve been nice to live in a house with windows…
lucky lucky bastard
OriginalPouzar,
If Klefbom is activated, they will be at 22 bodies + Sekera I think????? Does Klefbom still count against the cap on IR? I think he does?
12 forwards including Rattie
9D!!! if Klefbom and Sekera are activated
2 goalies
Somethings gotta give on the D front one would assume, as you say.
Mikko works really hard though, really hard.
Except Gaudreau is a forward so I wouldn’t use him as any sort of comparable for Bouchard.
Valimaki didn’t see AHL time but he also was getting caved in a sheltered third pairing role for the flames.
His CF% was right at 50% but his GF% was 40% and his relative numbers were all HUGE minuses including a -20% RelGF%.
Perhaps he’s a shining example of a player that should have started his pro career in the minor leagues?
Cool thanks. I thought maybe mgmt (as Munny says whoever that is), might have slipped something to the media even if the players aren’t around.
Luxury
I mean, I can’t remember them all, despite loving Monty Python. I do remember a different iteration of that sketch, however. I think part of the fun is how they change their sketches over time and with different audiences.
Rattie already cleared waivers so he could go down with out having to re-clear.
The Oilers are only over by apx $960 as you suggest, however, that’s with a 21 person roster – Klef’s activation will make it 22.
When Sekera is activated, they will have a 23 man roster (he is included on the 23 man roster while on the conditioning stint) but only 22 warm bodies.
They will need to send someone down to get cap compliant
I’m sure they would like to bring up another body so they aren’t 2 short and only carrying one extra, however then they’d need to clear apx $2M somehow. I think they might just waive and send Manning or Petrovic down which would clear $1,075,000 and get them cap compliant. Probably Petrovic, they seem to like Manning more.
They’d only have one extra body and back to back games which is a bit precarious.
Ryan McLeod with a 1st period PP goal.
I lived for three months in a brown paper bag in a septic tank.
Bag of Pucks,
Lol
Munny= pass
Professor= umm, not pass
https://youtu.be/ue7wM0QC5LE
Did you live in a shoebox in the middle of the road?
Professor Q,
Yeah I met Gaudreau a few years back and actually got to speak to him for around 10 minutes. First impressions aren’t everything but I was impressed by him. Seemed very driven, competitive, but I would not say egotistical. More high energy, intensely focused, almost to the point where he was kind of socially awkward. Also didn’t seem to mind that I was wearing a McDavid shirt which I thought was good of him.
Not really surprising given the level of player he is, but fan narrative is usually about how terrible players are.
Completely right about Spooner BUT, it seems there is a missing piece of info here. When a player falls off or does a 180 in performance there tends to be a reason, and we don’t know the reason.
It could be injury or attitude for example which would take us opposite directions in regards to how he is managed.
I think he may have been disappointed to come here and is playing to ensure a swift exit. They pay him the same either way.