We know NHL teams use math as an aid in several areas, including the draft. We also know that knowledge is being honed each year and the level of sophistication has reached impressive levels. We further know that many teams were slow to adapt and some teams have been left behind. How are the Oilers doing?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
- New Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
- New Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
- New Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
- Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
- Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
- Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
THE 2012 DRAFT
This draft year didn’t feature a strong group and by the second round every team was floundering. Still, the “successes” were Aberg and Di Giuseppe, who math recommended over Moroz and Collberg. I’m using NHL equivalencies to place everyone on a straight line.
THE 2016 DRAFT
I’ve been running this group of 10 for several years, mostly due to DeBrincat and just how obvious math was making things in 2016. Hajek is a fine prospect, but a lot of his value is defensive. Tampa Bay, generally regarded as a leading NHL team, might have been wise to trade down (similar to the Oilers situation with Phil Broberg at this year’s draft). Don’t get me wrong, I’m a fan of the shutdown defenseman, but to my eye grabbing that player type should wait until all of the high skill forwards are gone.
THE 2019 DRAFT
I thought the industry was heading in a math direction, but the fact Kaliyev and Brink fell outside the first round makes one wonder. Detroit drafted another defenseman with uncertain offense and Anaheim takes a prep school player (although his point total is a monster) meaning he played outside the best available leagues for his age. Edmonton did well, and looking back to 2012, appears to have elevated math in the list of priorities for second round picks.
OILERS V. LIGHTNING 2019 (NHLE)
If this is Bob Green’s final run as scouting director, and it is, I’ll say that he did a fine job getting value right through the last selection (based on math). The draft actually mirrors the Lightning (who once again did well) with Lavoie and Foote a match, and Blumel-Cajkovic a set. However, whereas we’d see Cam Abney or Kyle Bigos or Travis Ewanyk chosen (all shy of needed offense), Edmonton grabbed some talented kids after the second round. Music! Now. Keep it going with the new guy (Tyler Wright).
BROBERG V. HAJEK
One thing this little exercise brought into view for me is the limitations of NHLE when it comes to blue. Hajek’s NHLE projection suggested he would be a shutdown defenseman and that has been confirmed since draft day. Broberg’s 41 Allsvenskan games suggest shy offense but his work in the Hlinka/Gretzky and U18’s suggests something more substantial. Although it’s fair game to criticize the pick with so many offensive forwards on the board, I don’t think it’s accurate to suggest Broberg=Hajek. I think Broberg is closer to Oscar Klefbom or Darnell Nurse offensively. We wait.
The thing about prospects is not all of them make it to LT’s 100 NHL game point.
So while I’d love to see a NHL top 6 D filled with 3 or 4 of our prospects, the reality is that it’s a poor long bet that we’ll get that, and it takes defensemen the longest to develop.
The good thing about our depth on D in the system is that even if a few fail we should still get roughly 2 + fill-ins. More than that would be a bonus.
Washington’s top two penalty killers in terms of minutes per game the last two seasons were Niskanen and Orpik. Their GA/60 increased by over 2 g/60 to 8.67 and 8.64.
Orpik retired and Niskanen, 32, was traded to Philadelphia for Gudas, 29. Washington cleared 3.4M in cap space in the trade. Gudas was the Flyers second best PK Defenceman in terms of GA/60 while getting the second most PK ice time.
Washington last year added Detroits far and away best penalty killing Defenceman, Nik Jensen, 28. In the 20 games that he played with Washington after the trade he was their best PK man.
The Capitals PK improved by 1.4% after the trade while Detroits PK% fell 3 and 1/2 points.
Nice work!
Philadelphia on the other hand lost Gudas and bought out their best PK defenceman MacDonald. They replaced those two with Niskanen, who had the bad PK season, and Justin Braun, also 32 who was San Jose’s worst PK defenceman by a mile. He had a wretched 9.04 GA/60 on the PK. 6th worst in the league for Defenceman getting over 175 minutes on the PK.
Bad work!
The Oilers btw gave up the guy who was on the ice for the 12th least GA/60 on the PK in the league for Defencemen who avg his 1:37 PK time/Game or more: Kevin Gravel. He had an outstanding 5.15 GA/60.
He also led the Oilers D who played 200 or minutes in 5×5 GA/60.
Let’s see how he does in Toronto. If he does well I wonder if we’ll hear about it??
The Oilers bought out their second best PK Dman in terms of GA/60. Andrej Sekera. Although he only played 24 games. Sekera was excellent on the Pk in 17-18 in his 36 GP as well.
The Oilers had the 2nd worst PK in the league last year.
Gravel was signed by Toronto who unloaded their two worst PK Dmen on Ottawa, Hainsey and Zaitsev, who had GA/60 of 8.36 and 7.54.
Last season Toronto acquired LA’s 2nd best PK Dman, Jake Muzzin.
Nice work!
Fixing the Oilers 2nd worst PK has to be one of the top priorities this season.
They added Markus Granlund from VCR who killed penalties there but was their worst PK FW who played over a minute a game on the PK. He had bad results the year before as well.
The Nuge had the 7th worst GA/60 in the league for FW’s who played at least 120 minutes on the PK. Granlund was 8th worst.
At FW the Oilers best PKers relative to their teammates last season were Ryan Strome and Tobias Rieder. They are gone as well. So the two defencemen and the two FW’s who gave up the least amount of goals on the PK are gone and so far they have brought in a poor Pker at FW.
Looking at available FW’s, Sheahan had the 42nd best GA/60 on the PK with 6.51. In Pittsburgh he wasn’t good relative to his teammates but in his 33 games in Florida he was outstanding with a 4.84 GA/60.
Sheahan IMO doesn’t bring enough offence to be a 3C on a good team but may be a good PKing 4C. Holland may vomit at the idea of signing him though as he had to endure watching Sheahan not score in 79 straight games in 16-17 until he scored 2 in the last game of the season. Holland likes goals.
IN 17-18 Khaira played 103 PK minutes and gave up a superb 4.08 G/60. This last year he was poor like the most on the team giving up 8.67.
Nuge had the worst PK results for FW’s on the team in 17-18 as well. For starters I think they need to find a C who can PK to replace RNH (amongst other things).
Yup – the Koskinen contract remains the biggest head-scratcher of the Chiarelli regime – no, not the “worst move” (although it has potential) but the biggest “WTF” moment as there wasn’t a single thing about it that made sense (still doesn’t).
Oh well, Mikko is an Oiler and I’m hoping he and Smith form some sort of chemistry and create a great tandem for this year. Here is hoping that Smith causes a bonus penalty on the cap next season.
Sorry, $100,000 less. Wow.
I can believe that Binnington is making $300,000 more than Koskinen.
Because..
It seems to me that your first sentence doesn’t match the rest of your comment. To me, defending is the one biggest determiner of whether a player is ready for the NHL and Samorukov has provided great offence in the last half of the season and in his international tournaments. The other hindrance to making the NHL is most commonly slow boots. That would also point to Samorukov having an advantage over Bouchard. I think slow would be overstating it, but definitely not fast like Samorukov. Now, one is left-handed and one is right-handed, so, in a way they are not competing against each other but it seems to me that Samorukov may be “closer” to the NHL.
I watched Kemp in person once playing for Yale. The skating and the defending were there, but from what I saw, the lack of offense may block him from making it to the NHL. Third pairing is his ceiling, IMHO.
Looking at Markus Granlund’s #’s over the last 3 years
Decent bottom six goal scorer .67 G/60, ixg/60 .57 (i definitely would not expect 19 goals that he got 3 years ago as his shooting percentage was much better)
Very poor playmaker. He may score a few but won’t help his linemates score.
Disciplined, and pretty good at drawing penalties.
Defensively good
Definitely not a shot blocker – he’s at Sedin levels
His teams shooting percentage while he’s on the ice is only 5.92% – so there may be a little more offence than the numbers show
godot10,
I respectably disagree. I believe the ability to make a consistent great 1st pass gets you to the NHL. You can teach defending to good-elite players but you cannot teach defensemen good 1st pass consistency. In this area I like what the Oilers are doing. On a side note I would have taken Dobson over Bouchard but it is close.
Probably worth half a Russell or less
World Cup vs. World Championships
Kris Russell was never on a PTO with the Oilers – he signed his 1 year contract on the eve of the season but wasn’t on a PTO or with the team prior to the signing.
Really!
Bulging Twine,
You could also make a case for Russell as a successful PTO in Edmonton recently. Maybe the PTO angle is what we should be grinding harder, instead of big-game hunting on July 1.
rickithebear
Ricki, you know I have a deep respect for you and your approach but your insistence on disparaging what you call a constructivist approach and what others in my field would simply called qualitative research is getting to be a bit much. Qualitative inquiry is a lot more complex and rigorous than just spinning a narrative that has no evidence. The scientific method is still used, sample sizes matter; it’s just a different approach to collecting data. I’d be happy to share my own approach or any of the peer reviewed stuff I have kicking around in my own archive and that I’ve used for teaching research methods.
The numbers can’t exist entirely in a vacuum – divorced from context they’re almost meaningless. Many analysts would suggest that they find the stories the math is trying to tell us and that the math they use is one of many tools, not the only tool.
You’ve spoken a lot lately about how Russell is an exceptional defender in a 3-2-1 system, one of the best there is for 0% corsi defence. The trouble is that the Oilers have not used such a system in his time on the team (3 seasons now), so the evidence that we do have (both visual and analytical) that suggests Russell isn’t great at defence is growing.
I’m not suggesting that your approach is wrong – for the most part your ideas make a lot of sense. Goals and goal prevention are the biggest keys to success; of that there can be no doubt, but I’m less certain that all of the players your models seem to value make the most sense based on the changes to systems and tactics we’ve witnessed over the last few seasons. If Tippett adopts a 3-2-1 style, maybe we’ll see the sort of defensive improvements you’re talking about and Russell’s value will become more obvious. I hope it happens, because if it does the Oilers will likely win a few more games this season, and that would be a welcome change.
Another reason to take a D before a forward is how much impact they have on a game. Also that it is far harder to acquire top D while we see forwards moving around a lot more . Top goalies also don’t get traded.
I think of the Oilers last playoffs. Looking good against the opponent, I thought they would beat them, then a little D that many feel is second pairing despite usage when healthy gets hurt and it derails the team.
Roloson gets hurt same result. I also think Pronger was gassed by that point which didn’t help.
Bottom line is a strong group of D with depth is the key to a Cup contender, and perennial contender, usually.
The Pens seemingly won without that, but I think they got yoeman’s work out of some unexpected guys , like the Blues this year, and with the poor health of Letang and the others falling back to earth they couldn’t keep going.
We’ll see how the Blues respond.
Holland said why he took Bro. A D with skill with that’s size and an incredible skater is really hard to get. There were no sure bet forwards last Hughes and Kakko. So if you’re going to bet pick a unicorn over a horse.
He then took a big right shot C, another type he has said he covets even if Lavoie ends up a winger, he still may be able to take weak side faceoffs and should have a clue defensively being a centre.
Every player out of the top elite players in each draft is a gamble in becoming an impact player, and some years even they are, like Yak’s super weak draft year.
My money is on Kemp to emerge in 2-3 years as a legit NHL Dman, likely 3rd pairing, but possibly 2nd pairing. Be nice if both he and Marino sign, I consider Marino to be a less offensive/more defensive Petry.
Kemp is more like Larsson, but with possibly better boots.
One of the lessons I teach my kids is just because every one is doing it does not make it correct.
I have tried to get them to know that by age 5-8.
This just taught me I need to point this out to many on this blog.
An approach you expect your kids to understand by grade 3.
Funnily it parrallels what my wife’s Journslism Univ. & Sun Media sports department taught here.
Write as though you are talking to people with grade 3 level of thinking.
Say this to yourselves!
Many teams are running a 3–1-1-1 heavy system, so some have to make the playoffs.
Just because many orgs do it does not make it correct.
90% of the teams competing in a championship series are high rate 3-2-1 structure teams.
Yes, probably after the draft they do
I referring to stuff said before the draft.
The NHL is funny.
Jim Benning is a guy who’s been open about their intentions the last few drafts.
Holland while in Detroit in ’18 said before the draft that they’d like to get a D as they have lot’s of FW prospects. Then after the draft, after they took the FW Zadina, he said, well, we were looking for D but when Zadina fell to us we couldn’t pass him up. Zadina was rated higher than where he went by most accounts.
and others
it’s nothing like the NFL though where there is misdirection and secrecy and lot’s of resources poured into getting intel on who the others teams like.
What a beautiful constructive narative.
Beautiful prose.
A word smithing of quality.
But I do not want Literature.
I want observed play with facts in a math based aproach.
We can all agree all corsi that are
Blocked
Misses
Directly Hit goalie ( Closed shot)
Have 0% chance of going in the net.
Only those that directly hit open space in net from
opposition corsi yeild Goals against.
The ones that hit open space in net from
Our Own teams deflections ( forward, dmen, goalie)
Yeilsvown goals.
I want real Zone spatial analysis.
Use you brain and observe the HD areas sq. Footage.
A real good lesson would be Pit 2 cup runs.
The 2D-1G structure occupies the HD area at even and PK.
At even Pittsburgh forwards collapsed down to the edge of HD area.
On the PK the forwards vary the aproach to how they follow the puck.
I will not deny the emergence of a high % of orgs moving to a 5 man unit attacking at even.
But as I have observed and multiple cup winning GM Holland has stated.
The dmen do not attack if it creates a threat to our goal.
What I can say is many teams are running a more aggressive 3-1-1-1 approach in the current NHL.
Years ago it was less than half the league.
Those 3-1-1-1 teams did not make the playoffs.
Now with the volume of teams running 3-1-1-1 structure some of them have to make the playoffs.
So that looks like success.
Here is the truth.
I looked back on the last 10 seasons.
36 of the 40 final 4 teams are strong 3-2-1 structured teams.
Yes their are a lot more 3-1-1-1 structure teams.
However 90% of the teams competing in a championship series are 3-2-1 structure heavy teams.
That is why you saw STL one of the cup core roster theory teams who ran a heavy 3-2-1 structure were so GA dominate in their wins during the cup run.
Cannot remember if it was the final series they were .75 ga.
They were not above 2.0 ga in any of the 4 series 4 wins.
Just because a bunch of stupid GM,s are copying an approach does not make it smart.
This won is going to the notes.
Might be a nice chapter.
Stupid thing GM’s do.
Oh. That surprises me. I thought all GM’s always claimed to take the BPA even if they were obviously picking for need.
I’ll have to listen more carefully.
For accuracy, “he LOOKED like a beast” and “there were REPORTS that he made bad reads”. I didn’t see the bad reads.
But reads can be taught and learned. Not all learn them though.
Shattenkirk in the playoffs = problems
Teams with lower GA usually do best, especially in the playoffs.
Yes, if he had said, we’ll take the BPA, and that’s a good reason to say that that you give, but this question is asked so many times and some will say, well we’d like to get a forward or we have lot’s of FW prospects, we’d like to get a D. Or if you are the Oilers you tell the world exactly who it is you are taking!
What I liked about what Bowman said was that he shut down the age old question by enveloping one into the other.
In all my years following NFL and NHL drafts I have never heard anyone say what he said.
I didn’t say Bouchard was picked to fill a need in isolation – there was generally not much to choose between these two d-man as far as BPA – generally ranked right near one other – one ahead on some reputable lists while the other ahead on other reputable lists.
I’m not privy to the Oilers lists of the past but my guess is they also had these two right beside each other as far as BPA. Bouchard actually was drafted after his “consensus ranking” – likely BPA and filled a need.
I do enjoy how it seems one of your daily tasks relates to trying to find mistakes or inconsistencies in my posting – no bother, I like it.
Lagesson is indeed a stud defensive prospect, in my mind – this is because, in addition to being a plus defender, he can skate and move the puck out of the zone with efficiency – something Russell can’t do and Greene couldn’t do (and Larsson struggles at) – we’ll see if that translates to the NHL level.
Greene was on the 2014 SC winning team – he was 7th in TOI/G even though he was second in GA/60. He dropped to 8th in TOI/G in the playoffs.
Seems that, even though he was one of the best GA d-men, the coach didn’t play him much.
What is your projection for Quinn Hughes?
I think Holland read the draft very well – saw/anticipated the surprising run on d-men in the first round and there being some “1st round talent” forwards being available at 38.
Didn’t you just post a comment saying it’s a generally accepted fact you shouldn’t draft for need then state how Bouchard was picked to feel a need?
Yes, I think I have read those reports, and it may have been from SPR, a crazy good resource for the Oilers OHL prospects (and anything London Knights) – I think that may have been from his draft plus 1 season and those decision issues weren’t as evident in draft plus two. Of course, decision making is something that comes with experience and development. Next we’ll see how he does at the pro level – as I alluded to above, I think he will have some issues being overly aggressive defending the blue line and we’ll see how he learns.
Bulgin:
“Samokurov was a beast”
“ One concern is reads in def zone”
Guess what the primary role of a Dman is?
Holland, Tipett, Playfair talked about it a lot.
Saying you ensure that responsibility before you cheat by moving forward.
Defence!
The new mgmt & coaching has already indicated thier is teaching needed in regards to that.
So a weak Dzone read defenceman is not a beast.
Holland will tell you that.
He already has said dmen are usually NHL ready when they are 23-24.
Klefbom (25), Nurse (24), Jones (22), Bear (22), Samakourov, (20), Bouchard (19)
We need to reduce our GA to less than 220 which is 40-50 less ga than our last 2 seasons.
None of these dmen have helped us with that the last 2 seasons.
Dmen with strong EVGA history to their side.
I differentiate by side.
You cannot blame a dman for his partner not being in their spot in a championship winning 2-1 goal against structure.
Russell (32)
Larsson (26)
Benning (25)
Laggesson is our best Dzone prospect since Matt Greene a top 60 HD dman in 05-06 with the oilers.
Who won 2 Stanley cups with a 6 deep top60 HD dman LAK team.
Holland
Defence first.
It is OK to Cheat forward only if there is no chance you will not be back for your responsibility.
Samourukov might be closer to the NHL. The ability to defend is what gets you to the NHL. The reason Bouchard slid is because the things he has to work on, defending and retrievals, have to be learned in the AHL if one is below average on them.
Being a power play specialist might get one too the NHL too, but then one is building in a low ceiling for Bouchard. Do you want him to be Pieterangelo or do you want him to be Shattenkirk or Yandle?
Does he want to be Pieterangelo or does he want to be Shattenkirk?
The second item. Especially Sweden, for some reason.
I had Lavoie 26, Leason 35. Never thought Lavoie would go outside the first round.
No Mr bear what he is saying is hockey is a team game. In the new NHL both offence and defence are interdependent. The best teams are composed of 5 members both offensively and defensively. The days of old will not win you a championship. Good teams are composed of three lines of five men units.
It actually puts the T back in team.
Not really. They probably would have just taken Leason, or one of the guys you liked. Fagemo, Hoglander, As long as Lavoie and Leason were on the board, they probably didn’t feel they had to move.
We are still back to you build from the back end. D wins championships. Before you reply, the goal tender is a big part of the defence.
Any interest?
//There’s been no shortage of turnover in Chicago this summer, with the team acquiring Olli Maatta, Calvin de Haan, Andrew Shaw, and Alexander Nylander, signing Robin Lehner, and drafting Kirby Dach, while watching Dominik Kahun, John Hayden, Gustav Forsling, Marcus Kruger, and Henri Jokiharju depart. Yet, the re-shaping of the roster may not be done yet. Blackhawks insider Jay Zawaski of the Madhouse Chicago Hockey Podcast reports that the team is actively shopping young forward Brendan Perlini.//
LT:
Was you saying NHLE has no value when it comes to Dmen cause you realize offence driven by Dmen ( rovering) is a huge -ve goal diff affect on teams.
Or
that it is poor measure of off value for European dmen.
Witch you have indirectly pointed out since Desjardins first presented the concept.
One of the first things we agreed about.
Thirty other GM’s would say the same thing. Who wants their first round draft pick to think he wasn’t the best player available? 😉
I agree, Samurokov looked like a beast out there in the second half.
One thing that was concerning to me were the reports that he made many bad reads in the DZone. Did you hear that? It may have been TheOilKnight, apologies to the awesome OilKnight if it wasn’t him. Anyways, that is totally something that can be taught and learned no problem.
This is a very valid observation in my opinion. For most of the All Star versus Cup Champions the Cup Champions won.
Samorukov has just the right amount of nasty which combines nicely with the rest of the package.
Part of the reason Debrincat went as late as he did given the math was the knock in the scouting reports that his skating was only average. Reality is he was always being seen with McDavid where when compared with McDavid everyone is average.
Sounds like a perfect PTO candidate.
Samorukov’s overall skillset is tantalizing.
Of course, at this point, Bouchard is closer to the NHL and the more “can’t miss prospect” but I do think that, as far as overall potential goes, Samorukov has a higher ceiling. No, maybe he doesn’t have a higher point production ceiling but with his skating and his plus defending, I think he’s got “all the tools”. Lets not forget, he was drafted as more of a defensive d-man than an offensive or even a two way guy. He’s also very aggressive and physical. His ability to defend the blue line off the rush at the junior level is off the charts from what I’ve seen – he’ll need to pick his spots better at the pro level but I think he’s smart enough to learn.
I get what you’re saying. I have to share a great quote from your GM, Stan Bowman at the draft in response to the question, “Do you draft for need or best player available”?
We need the best player available.
Was using player comparison tool on Natural Stat trick and Jason Pominville is a guy who compares favourably last season over Vanek. He’s 36 though. But for a team desperate for FW with some offence…..?
1.08 G/60
2.01 P/60
1.58 P1/60
Agreed. BPA is a good theory in the first round but trading for certain positions has become so difficult since the cap was introduced I think a small bias goes to selection for need in certain cases. I think Bouchard over Dobson is clearly one of those situations.
I am an old Blackhawks fan from my childhood. Chicago used to dominate the all-star selections for a number of years in the early ’60’s. Hull, Makita, Pilote, Hall, Vasko and Kenny Wharram. Only won one Cup in spite of all that high end talent. I think that is where I get my prejudice for preferring balanced teams rather than looking at players as individuals and assessing them that way. The GM has to find the pieces that are more than the sum of their parts – or at least that is what I think makes a good GM. 😉
Bouchard is INCREDIBLE at getting shots through from the point. I think that he has some Jedi powers there. Often it’s not a hard shot, it’s a wrister that saunters it’s way calmly to the net.
Interesting, I didn’t know Bouchard was the OHL Dman of the year. That’s great.
And with Samurokov having the great second half – Howson thinks he may have been the best player in the O in the second half – that’s two promising building blocks on the back end.