Are Friends Electric?

I think the gap between Edmonton’s first and second pick in the 2019 NHL draft is far smaller than the gap between No. 8 and No. 38. The TSN cover photo frames it even more strongly than my rankings (I had Broberg No. 16 and Lavoie No. 26) back on draft day.

This isn’t Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod, not at all. If we’re honest, there’s a chance Edmonton drafted a better player in the second round than the first, based purely on offensive potential.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Is there anyone left in free agency who can help the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
  • Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
  • Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
  • Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
  • Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?

Questions and Answers

Will Kailer Yamamoto return healthy this fall? I wonder about wrist injuries for skill players.

If Ken Holland is done making moves, how many rookies make the big club in the fall? I’ll guess Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody, Caleb Jones, plus Euro players Joakim Nygard and Joel Persson. Many recall rookies during the season, too. I’m cheering for Joe Gambardella.

How much offense will Philip Broberg bring? He scored 2-7-9 in 41 Allsvenskan games (14:33 per game), that works out to 0.91 points-per-60. I couldn’t find a breakdown in toi by discipline. He did score 2-4-6 at evens, 0-3-3 on the power play, and had 83 shots on goal.

In his draft year, Oscar Klefbom scored 23, 1-1-2 in the SHL. That’s 0.62. Filip Johansson was drafted No. 24 in 2018 by the Minnesota Wild, he played in the Allsvenskan, scored 0.24 per 60. He played in the same league draft +1, posting 0.28 per 60. Where does that put us in estimating Broberg? About where we started, but at least we have some first blush stats.

Last season, including playoffs, Raphael Lavoie scored 52 goals in 85 games. Kailer Yamamoto scored 42 in 65 games in his draft year. McDavid? 44 goals in 47 games. Showoff. Point being, Lavoie is one of the best pure scorers drafted by Edmonton in the last five years. He has a clear path to the NHL, beginning next fall.

Joel Persson seems to be the forgotten man when we discuss the opening night lineup. What about a defensive group that lines up Klefbom-Larsson; Nurse-Benning and Russell-Persson? It makes sense from an experience point of view and gets the lefty-righty back on its axis. Plus you add a puck mover to the group, and a power-play option to the lineup.

Cooper Marody is the dark horse among the forwards, but he has some real advantages. He can play center or wing, and is exceptional with the puck on his stick. As a complementary option for the top two lines, he makes a lot of sense. Dave Tippett has Zack Kassian and Alex Chiasson as veteran options who can provide size and some skill, plus Sam Gagner who has experience and plenty of skill. Marody’s assets include a small cap hit, fantastic vision and passing, and the important “if he flourishes this year you have something to build on” card.

Yost will be a guest on the Lowdown today, we’ll chat about the concerns over this team, and what Ken Holland could have done differently.

Dennis Bernstein from The Fourth Period got talking about the LA Kings and some shopping the club is doing this summer. He had an interesting take on Jesse Puljujarvi as a possible target and did discuss Todd McLellan and reasons why there is interest. Also talked about possible targets for the Oilers. Bernstein: “As for the return, I’ve heard that winger Matt Luff is a favorite of new head coach Dave Tippett, who identified the winger as a target for the expansion draft had Tippett chose to exercise more patience in Seattle.” Source

There remain several interesting names, at this point in summer the team has maybe enough for one signing above $1 million. At some point, and we’ll discuss later in July, we’re going to see PTO’s offered and accepted and that should be a strong list. Tippett made out like a bandit with late summer additions in Phoenix.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning gets started at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear: Travis Yost from TSN, as we look at the biggest problems facing the Oilers for 2019-20. Gabe Lacques from USA Today will join us at 11 to chat mlb and trade deadline, plus your comments and questions. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk to you soon!

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250 Responses to "Are Friends Electric?"

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  1. VanIsleOil says:

    Gary Numan….. the pouting punk……awesome electronic music back in the day

  2. bmclav says:

    What about something like this :

    Khaira-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Jurco
    Benson-Granlund-Marody
    Nygard-Haas-Chiasson

    Extras: Lucic, Gagner

  3. Primetime says:

    For those who were so upset by taking Broberg so high, it’s almost like Holland traded down in round 1 to get a second first rounder.

    Many had suggested to trade the 8th pick for a lower pick if Broberg was the guy. Getting Lavoie is like they actually did trade the 8th and the 36th picks for 16 and 19. Draft a high end forward and a D with a ton of potential. If we had done that on draft day, most would have been ecstatic!

    Life is easier when you view it through altered reality!

  4. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: The title should read: Player’s Holland should have signed instead of unproven Europeans.

    These guys could have helped to form a solid 3rd line – something Holland indicated was a priority – instead we have more Wing-and-a-Prayer type players who we *hope* can play in the NHL, and we *hope* they’ll be above replacement level.

    Missed opportunities…

    But Nygard, Haas and Persson are literally zero risk. They can all be sent to the minors/Europe without affecting the cap if they aren’t among the best available. They aren’t impeding other signings in any way.

  5. Pescador says:

    bmclav:
    What about something like this :

    Khaira-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Jurco
    Benson-Granlund-Marody
    Nygard-Haas-Chiasson

    Extras: Lucic, Gagner

    According to Capfriendly the Oilers have $3.9M in cap space
    That’s with Brodziak and Manning at full salary. Option those 2 to the minors & there is an additional $1.1M.
    There is about $5M in cap to spend on a top 6 winger via trade or free agency.
    It makes sense to split it up something like $3.75M & $750K on a bottom 6 player like Magnus Pajararvi
    Another cap dump that makes sense is to send Gagner and his $3.25M to Ottawa with a 5th round pick for some stalled prospect that they don’t plan to sign.
    Holland has shown a severe lack of imagination so far this off season.

  6. condormcdavis says:

    Lavoie in the second round was a steal.

    Five years from now it may be the steal of the draft.

    The Oilers won on draft day and its nice to be able to write that these days.

  7. dustrock says:

    Primetime:
    For those who were so upset by taking Broberg so high, it’s almost like Holland traded down in round 1 to get a second first rounder.

    Many had suggested to trade the 8th pick for a lower pick if Broberg was the guy.Getting Lavoie is like they actually did trade the 8th and the 36th picks for 16 and 19.Draft a high end forward and a D with a ton of potential. If we had done that on draft day, most would have been ecstatic!

    Life is easier when you view it through altered reality!

    The only hesitation I had was with Zegras available, and maybe Caufield.

    Otherwise it seemed pretty clear after Hughes/Kakko/Turcotte/Dach/Cozens, there was a pretty mixed group of forwards from #6-36.

  8. Primetime says:

    dustrock: The only hesitation I had was with Zegras available, and maybe Caufield.

    Otherwise it seemed pretty clear after Hughes/Kakko/Turcotte/Dach/Cozens, there was a pretty mixed group of forwards from #6-36.

    Zegras especially since he is now in the division and taken the pick immediately after…will be interesting to see how it plays out over the next several years

  9. OriginalPouzar says:

    Its not very often that Oiler fans almost unanimously agree on something but its close with the Lavoie pick.

    I was never watching him in particular but did see some Halifax games and was always keeping apprised of the Moosehead due to Safin, however, I always did notice Lavoie when I did watch as he would usually make a crazy skilled play at least once or twice a game – often size, speed and strength combined.

    I will keep a bit reserved as often “bigger kids” can use their size to dominate in junior and their overall game doesn’t translate at pro (similar to amazing skaters) but there is solid potential in this player.

    I look for a massive season back in the Q and a staring role for Team Canada.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    I think Joe G. has a chance to break camp with the team and could/would be a solid 12th-14th guy.

    With that said, I think he’s competing with the likes of Hass who likely has the inside track given he’s a Holland signing and, of course, his verbal re: not accepting an AHL assignment (except for a short adjustment type assignment).

    If Joe G. is the better player in camp, I would hope management and the coaching staff keep him on the team and Hass can wait and earn his way in (or replace Joe G. if his game doesn’t translate in the regular season).

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    Health is the key for Yamamoto this season.

    He needs to play and develop and he needs to do so in the American Hockey League.

    He wasn’t ready for the NHL last year and, since he got re-assigned to the AHL, he was never healthy enough to really get much development time. When he did get a series of games, he proved to be a high end AHL player that could drive offence. Here is hoping he can play a straight 30 plus games in the AHL, be a PPG guy and a driver on the team and, then, he can be an NHL option.

    Lets give him the AHL development time and, come on Kailer, stay healthy and use those games.

  12. Rondo says:

    condormcdavis:
    Lavoie in the second round was a steal.

    Five years from now it may be the steal of the draft.

    The Oilers won on draft day and its nice to be able to write that these days.

    Jesse Puljujarvi was a steal at #4

  13. Woogie63 says:

    Trade Russell to VGK for a Gusev/Eakin/Smith and then sign Dion Phaneuf 1X1.5M

    Gets the help on the forward line, Dion’s term is a winner for the conveyer belt.

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    It is almost impossible to project offence from teenage d-men in the top 2 Swedish pro leagues to the NHL in my opinion. We’ve seen minimal offence in those circumstances from players than have gone on to be high end offensive performers in the NHL.

    I don’t even really care about Broberg’s offence this year in Skelleftea – my hope is:

    1) he stays in the top league and doesn’t get relegated to Allsvenskan; and

    2) he earns the trust of his coach through the year and gains minutes as the year goes on and, by the end of the year, is solidly in the top 4 with some special teams.

  15. russ99 says:

    Did the math on Cap Friendly.

    With Brodziak and Manning in AHL:

    Cap space: $5,363,001
    Bonuses: $1,820,000 (not all may be met, but you have to account for them)
    Reserved space for callups: $1,000,000

    Real cap space: $2,543.001 (not counting Jesse in the unlikely event he signs the qualifying offer)

    Some of which we’d prefer to hold onto for trade deadline purposes.

  16. OriginalPouzar says:

    I haven’t forgot about Persson.

    Although he’s a bit of a wild card, I do think he’s pencilled in to an NHL spot and Persson/Jones are 6/7.

    Of course, we don’t want a “rookie” in the pressbox but, at the same time, they don’t need to play every game and there could be a bit of a rotation for the bottom pairing – maybe even the 4-7 spots.

  17. russ99 says:

    Woogie63,

    Vegas has no cap space, that’s why they’re trading Gusev.

  18. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pescador,

    – Or maybe his experience told him that if he flushed sek in buy out deadline and waited it out there would be good players available as other teams deal with their cap issues

    – Just as some have posited that Holland based on his knowledge and experience made the call that if he reached for Brah there were going to be a lot of teams grabbing D so he felt that a 1st round caliber Forward would be available in the 2nd round

    – Anyway no clue but they seem like reasonable reasons to do what he did. And I’d accept that logic as sound- now it depends on the execution

  19. Nit64 says:

    Primetime: Life is easier when you view it through altered reality!

    Or you could just look at the reality of what the BobFather list is designed to capture and what it isn’t

    Bro’ was 3rd D on that list
    Bro’ was the 2nd D drafted from that list
    The 5D on that list from 13 to 18 were drafted 3 spots earlier on average
    The 9F on that list between 4 and 12 were drafted 4 spots later on average

    You’re definitely going to get more offense from those 9F ;). But I’d look to what the GMs actually did to estimate value, not at the clustered tiers they submitted to the BobFather.

  20. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I think Joe G. has a chance to break camp with the team and could/would be a solid 12th-14th guy.

    With that said, I think he’s competing with the likes of Hass who likely has the inside track given he’s a Holland signing and, of course, his verbal re: not accepting an AHL assignment (except for a short adjustment type assignment).

    If Joe G. is the better player in camp, I would hope management and the coaching staff keep him on the team and Hass can wait and earn his way in (or replace Joe G. if his game doesn’t translate in the regular season).

    I agree with the Gambardella assessment, but would add that it was Holland who re-signed him to a 2 year extension. Especially given the 2nd year that seems like a pretty strong endorsement from the current GM. I expect he gets a fully fair shot.

  21. Nit64 says:

    Hi. Can anyone sort out the discrepancy with Bob’s FINAL list?
    The posted TSN list does not match the TSN screen cap above.
    The posted list has Bro at 15 and Seider at 16.

    https://www.tsn.ca/americans-set-to-dominate-first-round-of-the-nhl-draft-1.1323878

  22. Sierra says:

    Pescador:
    Another cap dump that makes sense is to send Gagner and his $3.25M to Ottawa with a 5th round pick for some stalled prospect that they don’t plan to sign.
    Holland has shown a severe lack of imagination so far this off season.

    Or maybe Holland has thought of it and the likes of Ottawa doesn’t want Gagner.

  23. texmex says:

    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    48s
    The #Oilers have signed forward Josh Archibald to a one-year contract. The Regina, Saskatchewan native tallied 12 goals & ten assists for 22 points in 68 appearances with Arizona in 2018-19.

    Edit: $700K per capfriendly

  24. London Jon says:

    jp: But Nygard, Haas and Persson are literally zero risk. They can all be sent to the minors/Europe without affecting the cap if they aren’t among the best available. They aren’t impeding other signings in any way.

    You do have to road test them to see what you have though and that has consequences.

    Consequences not disssimilar to roadtesting Kailer and Jesse well before they were ready.

    Tried and tested vets in place until they are pushed out by the shiny new toys is a better strategy if you can make it happen (which we clearly can’t!!)

  25. godot10 says:

    Pescador:
    Another cap dump that makes sense is to send Gagner and his $3.25M to Ottawa with a 5th round pick for some stalled prospect that they don’t plan to sign.

    Ottawa is a cash poor team. Gagner has to be paid actual money. So they would have no interest in Gagner. They are destination for players who add to the cap but don’t have to be paid actual dollars.

  26. jp says:

    texmex:
    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    48s
    The #Oilers have signed forward Josh Archibald to a one-year contract. The Regina, Saskatchewan native tallied 12 goals & ten assists for 22 points in 68 appearances with Arizona in 2018-19.

    Edit: $700K per capfriendly

    Cool. I don’t know much about the player, but some here will be happy. Cheap, so it’s no lose really.

  27. Yegfoundation says:

    LT, what I hear you saying, is “Broberg was a reach at 8”. Or, maybe this is what I want to hear you say.

    Taking the highly skilled American center at 8 would have been a much better plan, IMO.

    Oilers missed a great opportunity to add two high skill forwards this draft.

    Not good Ken. Not good.

    Holland commented that last time he won a cup he had 4 strong dman. That’s was yesteryear Ken and not sufficient justification for not adding another high skill forward prospect this team desperately required.

    Because Oilers.

  28. Pescador says:

    Sierra: Or maybe Holland has thought of it and the likes of Ottawa doesn’t want Gagner.

    This is the most plausible scenario.

  29. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    “As for the return, I’ve heard that winger Matt Luff is a favorite of new head coach Dave Tippett, who identified the winger as a target for the expansion draft had Tippett chose to exercise more patience in Seattle.”

    I’ve seen Luff play for the Ontario Reign about a dozen times. If that is the return for JP, I am more than willing to take the chance that Jesse busts here in EDM. On a side note, this may shed some light on why Tippett elected to return to coaching and why Seattle did not stand in his way. Tippett as GM could have been brutal … Chiaesque.

  30. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Health is the key for Yamamoto this season.

    He needs to play and develop and he needs to do so in the American Hockey League.

    He wasn’t ready for the NHL last year and, since he got re-assigned to the AHL, he was never healthy enough to really get much development time.When he did get a series of games, he proved to be a high end AHL player that could drive offence. Here is hoping he can play a straight 30 plus games in the AHL, be a PPG guy and a driver on the team and, then, he can be an NHL option.

    Lets give him the AHL development time and, come on Kailer, stay healthy and use those games.

    At what point do we stop making excuses for Yamamoto.

  31. jp says:

    London Jon: You do have to road test them to see what you have though and that has consequences.

    Consequences not disssimilar to roadtesting Kailer and Jesse well before they were ready.

    Tried and tested vets in place until they are pushed out by the shiny new toys is a better strategy if you can make it happen (which we clearly can’t!!)

    Are these guys shiny new toys though? All of them are 25+ yrs old and pretty much are what they are.

    I’m viewing these guys more like PTOs than like young 1st rounders. If they are among the best players during camp, they make the team, if not, send them out. Nygard and Persson get a chance to prove themselves in the AHL if they don’t make the team out of camp. I don’t see why these guys would need any more test drive than that, which has rather limited negative consequences IMO.

  32. Primetime says:

    Pescador: This is the most plausible scenario.

    Seeing that Samwise went unclaimed through waivers and could only be traded for an equal value bad contract, I would agree.

  33. godot10 says:

    The defense might line up like this.

    Nurse, Larsson
    Klefbom, Persson
    Jones, Benning
    Russell

  34. pts2pndr says:

    Yegfoundation:
    LT, what I hear you saying, is “Broberg was a reach at 8”.Or, maybe this is what I want to hear you say.

    Taking the highly skilled American center at 8 would have been a much better plan, IMO.

    Oilers missed a great opportunity to add two high skill forwards this draft.

    Not good Ken. Not good.

    Holland commented that last time he won a cup he had 4 strong dman.That’s was yesteryear Ken and not sufficient justification for not adding another high skill forward prospect this team desperately required.

    Because Oilers.

    Given that Holland has watched the American kids numerous times and picked the speedy 6.3 Swedish D could be that he is much smarter than you give him credit for.

  35. jtblack says:

    texmex:
    Edmonton Oilers
    @EdmontonOilers
    ·
    48s
    The #Oilers have signed forward Josh Archibald to a one-year contract. The Regina, Saskatchewan native tallied 12 goals & ten assists for 22 points in 68 appearances with Arizona in 2018-19.

    Edit: $700K per capfriendly

    I think this is a Great signing … Low risk, Good Value .. real NHL player

  36. DBO says:

    I like the Archibald signing. Especially if it’s for $700K. This is Willis’ post on him from his athletic post from last month

    RW Josh Archibald, Coyotes

    Archibald had sterling numbers on the Coyotes’ penalty kill and chipped in 12 goals and 161 hits while getting a steady diet of defensive zone starts last season. He isn’t big, but he’s a good skater right in the heart of his career and could provide Edmonton with a reliable defensive presence on its third or fourth line.

    “He’s been great at sticking to the system and playing it the right way,” Coyotes coach Rick Tocchet told Cat Silverman.”

    https://theathletic.com/1047596/2019/06/25/oilers-keep-two-cut-five-and-potentially-add-new-targets-as-qualifying-deadline-passes/

    This forces the kids to make the team, adds something we need. It doesn’t address top 6, but he is cheap, scored better at evens then anyone but our big three, and can PK, hits, and has speed and is in the prime of his career. No brainer smart depth move. Could also be a precursor to a bigger move that includes one of our younger depth players. He is a legit NHL player, not a question mark.

  37. dustrock says:

    pts2pndr: At what point do we stop making excuses for Yamamoto.

    Too right

  38. dustrock says:

    DBO:
    I like the Archibald signing. Especially if it’s for $700K. This is Willis’ post on him from his athletic post from last month

    RW Josh Archibald, Coyotes

    Archibald had sterling numbers on the Coyotes’ penalty kill and chipped in 12 goals and 161 hits while getting a steady diet of defensive zone starts last season. He isn’t big, but he’s a good skater right in the heart of his career and could provide Edmonton with a reliable defensive presence on its third or fourth line.

    “He’s been great at sticking to the system and playing it the right way,” Coyotes coach Rick Tocchet told Cat Silverman.”

    https://theathletic.com/1047596/2019/06/25/oilers-keep-two-cut-five-and-potentially-add-new-targets-as-qualifying-deadline-passes/

    This forces the kids to make the team, adds something we need. It doesn’t address top 6, but he is cheap, scored better at evens then anyone but our big three, and can PK, hits, and has speed and is in the prime of his career. No brainer smart depth move. Could also be a precursor to a bigger move that includes one of our younger depth players. He is a legit NHL player, not a question mark.

    Man I wasn’t joking when I said Young Willis could be Assistant GM

  39. texmex says:

    jtblack: I think this is a Great signing … Low risk, Good Value .. real NHL player

    Could be for 1M per now according to puck pedia.

    That could be too much?

  40. Darth Tu says:

    Looking at the Archibald stats on PuckIQ – he loves a defensive zone start, eh? Possibly contributes to the negative metrics across the board. Seems to struggle most against the middle 6 and fairs a little better against the Gritensity and Elite opposition (only marginally so for both).

    I guess he PKs, so that’s a help. Still can’t help but feel we’re absolutely swimming in bottom 6 players now, something has to give.

  41. Glovjuice says:

    One of my favourite songs of all time and has been the n many mixes that I have put together along with Me, I Disconnect From You. ‘Friends’ was incredible live in Edmonton on Halloween night 2014 (one of single best live music experiences that 5 minutes was).

  42. McSorley33 says:

    If you still feel compelled to try to trade Milan Lucic, Sam Gagner or Kris Russell – at least try to make the scenarios realistic and provide a brief explanation on why a team would want any of the above.
    ( or the medical drugs the opposing GM might be on)

    That last name in particular has even flummoxed some normally excellent posters……

    Nearly every city in the NHL is wishing away some poor contracts or looking to reduce their
    cap hit to sign their own players.

  43. jp says:

    godot10:
    The defense might line up like this.

    Nurse, Larsson
    Klefbom, Persson
    Jones, Benning
    Russell

    Extraordinary unlikely though, no?

  44. Admiral Ackbar says:

    pts2pndr: At what point do we stop making excuses for Yamamoto.

    Fair question. I’d say that if he doesn’t show well this year – call it 1.25 Pts/60?? – it’s time to get worried/trade before the word gets out. If that’s even possible.

    The kid made a claim on draft day. That’s turned into a bill of service that needs to be paid.

  45. Glovjuice says:

    Woogie63:
    Trade Russell to VGK for a Gusev/Eakin/Smith and then sign Dion Phaneuf 1X1.5M

    Gets the help on the forward line, Dion’s term is a winner for the conveyer belt.

    Good

  46. Material Elvis says:

    Nice inexpensive signing today. Over 1.5 P/60 at $700K is exactly the kind of bottom six player that they need. Now they really have some work to do — too many bottom six players and a disgruntled young winger to deal with.

  47. Material Elvis says:

    Woogie63:
    Trade Russell to VGK for a Gusev/Eakin/Smith and then sign Dion Phaneuf 1X1.5M

    Gets the help on the forward line, Dion’s term is a winner for the conveyer belt.

    Vegas doesn’t have enough cap space to take on Russell’s contract so that deal will not happen.

  48. texmex says:

    Material Elvis,

    Puckpedia has it at $1M.

    It’s only 300k delta, but the Oilers need every dollar. I think 1M is too much.

  49. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10:
    The defense might line up like this.

    Nurse, Larsson
    Klefbom, Persson
    Jones, Benning
    Russell

    – That’s kind of how I see it. Give Nurse and Benning the chance to play with a better D and see

    – Upgrade Nurse’s partner to Larsson instead of Russell, upgrade Benning’s partner to Klef instead of leftovers, and put Russell on the left side with one of the kids on 3rd.

    – Maybe you don’t have quite as elite a first pair, but you never know what they could do, and both Klef and Larsson are at a stage where they ought to be better with lesser D’s

    – I think you have almost all the D slotted properly this way, and if Nurse or Benning aren’t good enough, well you re-jig and/or wait for draft and devleop or trade…

  50. DBO says:

    $1 million for Archibald as per Dustin Neilson

  51. OmJo says:

    jp: But Nygard, Haas and Persson are literally zero risk. They can all be sent to the minors/Europe without affecting the cap if they aren’t among the best available. They aren’t impeding other signings in any way.

    Idk if they don’t impede on other signings in any way. Nygard and Haas take up almost $2M in cap space and two contracts. Personally I’d rather that money be spent on one proven NHL player. If they don’t do much and end up going back to Europe or the AHL or something then that’s a wasted $2M of cap space used this summer.

  52. russ99 says:

    godot10,

    Really gonna give Persson second pair D icetime at the NHL level for his first crack at playing on North American ice?

    Not a Benning fan, but in that case Benning is vastly a better option. I do agree that Russell would play better on his natural left side.

  53. Optimism is like heroin says:

    I am trying to look to positives right now and current line ups arent making me feel so good.

    Over the next 5 years we are going to see our defense get radically altered with many trade options.

    Me personally, I would like to see Klef, Larsson and nurse still here with Bouchard, Broberg and 2 of Lags, Samorukov, Persson, jones or bear. This just allows so much flexibility and trade options as we figure out who is the best.

  54. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    pts2pndr,

    I’d give the guy leeway AT LEAST through his ELC.

    If you look at some comparable players to KY — small, skill players — you’ll find that they often take 4-6 years post-draft to really pop.

    Guys like:

    Martin St. Louis
    Johnny Gaudreau
    Nathan Gerbe
    Tyler Ennis
    Tyler Johnson

    All come to mind. Yes Alex DeBrincat popped early but he’s more the exception than the rule.

  55. russ99 says:

    Optimism is like heroin,

    I’m hoping that with competition, something has to rise to the top, that the Jesse trade brings back a better top six option, we find something decent in the PTO pool and that Tippett’s 5-man philosophies get the Oilers players to perform as a team at an average to above average level akin to how Arizona responded to him in his first year, which would move the needle up from last season.

    Nobody’s expecting a cup, but we do need improvement.

  56. jp says:

    texmex:
    Material Elvis,

    Puckpedia has it at $1M.

    It’s only 300k delta, but the Oilers need every dollar. I think 1M is too much.

    Yeah, looking a little more, I’m not sure how good this player is.

    He managed 12 goals and 1.30P/60 at 5on5. And he was even in GF/GA. But every underlying metric was very poor (among the worse Coyotes across the board).

    He did face 40% OZ starts and the 6th most difficult opposition of Arizona’s forwards, but breaking even in goals appears to be a mirage.

    It was a similar case on the PK, GA numbers were OK (I’m not sure where the Willis sterling numbers reference comes from), but the underlying stuff was bad bad.

    I guess at least he can play a system.

  57. Optimism is like heroin says:

    russ99,

    Soooooo many ifs, Goaltending ….. lacking 3 scoring wingers to compliment our 3 centers.

    I will cheer like hell no matter how it goes but my gut is telling my liver to get ready for a 6 month siege.

  58. npanciroli says:

    I’m a fan of the Archibald signing. We desperately need a better PK and his 5v5 numbers are solid.

  59. jp says:

    OmJo: Idk if they don’t impede on other signings in any way. Nygard and Haas take up almost $2M in cap space and two contracts. Personally I’d rather that money be spent on one proven NHL player. If they don’t do much and end up going back to Europe or the AHL or something then that’s a wasted $2M of cap space used this summer.

    Any two players on the Oilers roster are going to take up almost $2M (actually $1.85M for Nygard + Haas). That money is going to be spent on the two roster spots no matter who wins the jobs, so no money (at least no cap) is wasted if these players end up in the AHL or Europe.

    The only possible negatives of having them signed IMO are:
    1) Holland incorrectly thinks they are better than UFAs he could otherwise sign. And thus doesn’t make moves because of it (which isn’t really about the players being signed, it’s about the GM (potentially) misevaluating players).
    2) The depth the Oilers have signed will scare away potential UFAs like Archibald. ie, such a UFA doesn’t think he can outperform Nygard/Haas to make the Oilers roster.

  60. jp says:

    pts2pndr: At what point do we stop making excuses for Yamamoto.

    At what point do we stop proclaiming a 20 year old a failure when, despite injuries, he performed at reasonable/good levels for a late 1st rounder in his first pro season?

  61. GMB3 says:

    I’m at the point where I actually wouldn’t mind signing Thomas Vanek and that isn’t really a good sign is it???

  62. hunter1909 says:

    jp: At what point do we stop proclaiming a 20 year old a failure when, despite injuries, he performed at reasonable/good levels for a late 1st rounder in his first pro season?

    This is behind the genius of Lowetide…being able to applaud prospects who fail to cut it in the NHL properly due to games played, however ineffective they might be.

  63. GMB3 says:

    hunter1909: This is behind the genius of Lowetide…being able to applaud prospects who fail to cut it in the NHL properly due to games played, however ineffective they might be.

    What

  64. dustrock says:

    Too bad we have to be excited about bottom 6 logical moves that any competent GM should be making in any given offseason, yet here are your Edmonton Oilers in Anno Domini MMXIX

  65. jp says:

    hunter1909: This is behind the genius of Lowetide…being able to applaud prospects who fail to cut it in the NHL properly due to games played, however ineffective they might be.

    Good lord. Failed to cut it?

    Look at this: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2017e.html

    After the top 5 picks, only 5 of 16 players picked AHEAD of Yamamoto have more NHL games or points. Only 3 of the almost 200 players picked after him have more points (the most being 12 points). About a third of the first rounders hadn’t played any pro hockey until jr/college seasons ended a few months ago.

    By any reasonable expectation Yamamoto SHOULD have been adjusting AHL hockey this season and scoring at modest rates there. Which is what he did. He might have done more if not for NHL time he shouldn’t have gotten and a chronic injury.

    Most of the players picked in front of him are not established NHLers at this point, and exactly none of those picked after him are.

    Unreasonable expectations.

  66. deardylan says:

    you know i hate to ask
    but are `blogs’ electric?
    only my reply to Hunter
    broke down

    now the text fades out
    and i’m wondering what i’m doing in a room like this
    there’s a knock on the door
    and just for a second i thought i remembered Lucic scoring

    you know i hate to ask
    but are `blogs’ electric?
    only my reply to Hunter
    broke down

  67. Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR says:

    hunter1909: This is behind the genius of Lowetide…being able to applaud prospects who fail to cut it in the NHL properly due to games played, however ineffective they might be.

    There’s nothing wrong with Yamamoto. If he takes a full year in the AHL this year, and starts the year there again next year I’m fine with that too. We’ve cried for years that this team expects too much from the kids, and thrusts them into the top 6 way before they’re ready. Then management dumps them because they weren’t up to the task. It is probably the main factor in this decade+ of a gong show we’ve all been witnessing. Now that we finally have a GM with a history of “over-ripening”, we’re gonna start questioning why a 20 yr old is not crushing it in the NHL yet. Leave him down there until proves he will be on the big team for good when he gets there. If he only turns out to be a solid third liner his whole career, that’s great too. What would the Oilers have given for a solid third line that could score a bit and not get caved.

  68. Professor Q says:

    deardylan:
    you know i hate to ask
    but are `blogs’ electric?
    only my reply to Hunter
    broke down

    now the text fades out
    and i’m wondering what i’m doing in a room like this
    there’s a knock on the door
    and just for a second i thought i remembered you

    Is this a haiku?

  69. deardylan says:

    Professor Q,

    Its more of a Baiku

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: According to Capfriendly the Oilers have $3.9M in cap space
    That’s with Brodziak and Manning at full salary. Option those 2 to the minors & there is an additional $1.1M.
    There is about $5M in cap to spend on a top 6 winger via trade or free agency.
    It makes sense to split it up something like $3.75M & $750K on a bottom 6 player like Magnus Pajararvi
    Another cap dump that makes sense is to send Gagner and his $3.25M to Ottawa with a 5th round pick for some stalled prospect that they don’t plan to sign.
    Holland has shown a severe lack of imagination so far this off season.

    Holland has a lack of imagination because he hasn’t made moves that you’ve dreamed up in your head?

    Why is Ottawa taking on Gagner’s contract? They will have no problem hitting the cap floor by signing White and then they are still only at 21 roster players. They don’t need Gagner to hit the cap floor so I assume Melnyk doesn’t want to pay a bloated salary.

    Sending Brodziak and Manning down each save $1.075M on the cap but then need to be replaced on the roster – If Manning is replaced by Persson, it saves almost nothing, if he’s replaced by Jones, its saves a couple hundred grand.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woogie:
    Trade Russell to VGK for a Gusev/Eakin/Smith and then sign Dion Phaneuf 1X1.5M

    Gets the help on the forward line, Dion’s term is a winner for the conveyer belt.

    Vegas would only be trading those guys because they are forced to dump cap space to get compliant.

    Given the foregoing, why in the world would they take back Russell and his $4M?

  72. ArmchairGM says:

    Ugh. Another tweener signed. Sigh.

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: But Nygard, Haas and Persson are literally zero risk. They can all be sent to the minors/Europe without affecting the cap if they aren’t among the best available. They aren’t impeding other signings in any way.

    And, just like that, we’re at 50 contracts. Forty-nine plus Puljujarvi. What were you saying about impeding other signings?!

  74. npanciroli says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I think there’s a couple slide contracts in those 49.

  75. texmex says:

    ArmchairGM: And, just like that, we’re at 50 contracts. Forty-nine plus Puljujarvi. What were you saying about impeding other signings?!

    I believe there are 3 slide contracts (Bro, Bouch, Rodrigue) included in the 49? So are we at 46 + JP?

    I admittedly do not fully understand the the slide contract thing.

  76. OmJo says:

    jp: Any two players on the Oilers roster are going to take up almost $2M (actually $1.85M for Nygard + Haas). That money is going to be spent on the two roster spots no matter who wins the jobs, so no money (at least no cap) is wasted if these players end up in the AHL or Europe.

    The only possible negatives of having them signed IMO are:
    1) Holland incorrectly thinks they are better than UFAs he could otherwise sign. And thus doesn’t make moves because of it (which isn’t really about the players being signed, it’s about the GM (potentially) misevaluating players).
    2) The depth the Oilers have signed will scare away potential UFAs like Archibald. ie, such a UFA doesn’t think he can outperform Nygard/Haas to make the Oilers roster.

    #1 is kind of what u was trying to say.

    If they don’t pan out then the free agent cap space we had would have been wasted for the summer. We’d have during the season for potential trades sure, but it would have been a missed opportunity to sign a proven UFA.

  77. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: And, just like that, we’re at 50 contracts. Forty-nine plus Puljujarvi. What were you saying about impeding other signings?!

    npanciroli:
    ArmchairGM,

    I think there’s a couple slide contracts in those 49.

    Yup. Broberg and Rodrigue will slide, so 47 plus Puljujarvi.

    Are we OK?

  78. Profit says:

    Count me as in favour of the Archibald deal. Low risk (1 year), high probability he covers the bet for $1M (if he scores 12 and PKs, there it’s covered), and good noise around him being able to play systems (Tippett type of player).

    I also continue to think there is another shoe to drop based on the absolute number/type of players. I think there will be a trade before September, but could be late in the summer.

    I’m continuing to be patient with the roster construction. It’s not done.

  79. jp says:

    texmex: I believe there are 3 slide contracts (Bro, Bouch, Rodrigue) included in the 49? So are we at 46 + JP?

    I admittedly do not fully understand the the slide contract thing.

    Slide contracts do not count against the 50 contract limit if the player goes back to Jr.

    Those 3 are eligible but Bouchard will turn pro so his contract will not slide. So 47+JP.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr: At what point do we stop making excuses for Yamamoto.

    What excuse am I making? He was hurt and it cost him development time in the AHL that he needed and I am hopeful that he stays healthy and gets it this year.

    Recall, last year was Yamamoto’s rookie pro year and his draft plus 2 year. Although a few months younger, Jordan Eberle spent his draft plus 2 year in the Western Hockey League.

    There is no need to make excuses for Yamamoto because, as he was a 22nd overall pick, not a high end top 10 pick, reasonable expectations would for him to have spent all of last year in the AHL and potetnailly much of this year – which is likely to happen.

  81. ArmchairGM says:

    texmex: Could be for 1M per now according to puck pedia.

    That could be too much?

    Holland’s summer just keeps getting better and better. smh.

  82. ArmchairGM says:

    Darth Tu:
    Still can’t help but feel we’re absolutely swimming in bottom 6 players now, something has to give.

    Yeah, it’s ridiculous. We’ve got like 18 bottom-6 players and 3 top-6 players – WTF is Holland thinking?

  83. ArmchairGM says:

    OmJo: Idk if they don’t impede on other signings in any way. Nygard and Haas take up almost $2M in cap space and two contracts. Personally I’d rather that money be spent on one proven NHL player. If they don’t do much and end up going back to Europe or the AHL or something then that’s a wasted $2M of cap space used this summer.

    Agreed. Holland is filling up the 50-man with guys who don’t move the needle.

  84. who says:

    Profit:
    Count me as in favour of the Archibald deal. Low risk (1 year), high probability he covers the bet for $1M (if he scores 12 and PKs, there it’s covered), and good noise around him being able to play systems (Tippett type of player).

    I also continue to think there is another shoe to drop based on the absolute number/type of players. I think there will be a trade before September, but could be late in the summer.

    I’m continuing to be patient with the roster construction. It’s not done.

    I am fine with all the cheap 1 year deals but this feels like a consolation signing. Like we couldn’t sign anyone better so Archibald will do. My guess is that we are now finished with free agent signings this summer. 50 contracts with 2 slides means we have room for 1 PTO signing in the fall and 1 spare space on the 50 man for the start of the season. Doubt that Holland wants to cut it any closer.
    That means the only significant roster change will come via trade. Contract in for contract out sort of thing. Ladies and gentlemen, this is your 2019/2020 Edmonton Oilers.
    I think we are a lottery team again. As long as the rookies progress, and establish themselves as NHL players, I think I can live with this for 1 more year.
    But next year’s team better be a legit playoff team.

  85. ArmchairGM says:

    russ99:
    Optimism is like heroin,

    I’m hoping that with competition, something has to rise to the top, that the Jesse trade brings back a better top six option, we find something decent in the PTO pool and that Tippett’s 5-man philosophies get the Oilers players to perform as a team at an average to above average level akin to how Arizona responded to him in his first year, which would move the needle up from last season.

    Nobody’s expecting a cup, but we do need improvement.

    Hoping, hoping, hoping, hoping, hoping. Every summer it’s the same thing. And here we thought that getting an experienced manager would change things.

  86. jp says:

    OmJo: #1 is kind of what u was trying to say.

    If they don’t pan out then the free agent cap space we had would have been wasted for the summer. We’d have during the season for potential trades sure, but it would have been a missed opportunity to sign a proven UFA.

    I don’t see how any cap space was wasted though. All of these guys making $1M or less are interchangeable. I don’t see Nygard or Haas as any different that Gambardella, Malone or P. Russell in regards to cap. Some of them will make the NHL roster, others won’t. The ones that don’t won’t affect the cap. Those that do will be on the Oilers roster (but costing basically the same as any of the other options that might or might not have made it).

    The Oilers now have more of these bets, but it doesn’t change the cap situation or limit the teams ability to sign another player to a $1M or $2M or $3M contract (as noted they don’t have too many more contracts to hand out, but there are still some spots open). The cap implications only change if the Oilers sign players to 1-way deals more than $1.025M (or whatever the buriable amount is in 19-20).

    Holland can still sign a $3M forward (or a couple at $2M) and my guess is he’s waiting for prices to come down/trades to become available. It’s also possible that he’s signed Nygard and Haas and thinks they’re better than anyone available as UFA. If that’s the case then yes, maybe other opportunities were missed. But again, their actual deals being signed does not limit the Oilers from adding another veteran UFA or two. In that case the missed opportunities would all be on Holland’s evaluation of the players, not due to being hamstrung by the Nygard/Haas contracts that he signed in the past.

  87. godot10 says:

    GMB3:
    I’m at the point where I actually wouldn’t mind signing Thomas Vanek and that isn’t really a good sign is it???

    The RFA’s around the league haven’t signed yet. Another round of salary cap dominoes is going to shakeout more salary cap casualties. Be patient.

  88. ArmchairGM says:

    texmex: I believe there are 3 slide contracts (Bro, Bouch, Rodrigue) included in the 49? So are we at 46 + JP?

    I admittedly do not fully understand the the slide contract thing.

    I highly doubt Bouchard slides again this year.

  89. leadfarmer says:

    This is the definition of throwing crap at the wall and hoping something sticks

  90. ArmchairGM says:

    Profit: high probability he covers the bet for $1M (if he scores 12 and PKs, there it’s covered)

    This is exactly what we all said about Rieder, remember?

    Archibald is an undersized guy that doesn’t have good skill who will be 27 at the start of the season and who is a veteran of 120 NHL games – more than half of them last season. I wouldn’t depend on him to do anything.

  91. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: The RFA’s around the league haven’t signed yet.Another round of salary cap dominoes is going to shakeout more salary cap casualties.Be patient.

    We’re not in a position to take advantage though – we’ve signed too many bottom-6 / tweeners / AHLers. We now have less than $2M in cap space including Holland’s $1M allowance for perfomance bonuses.

  92. texmex says:

    Current roster has 9 UFAs + 4 RFAs with ~ 27 million in cap space next summer.

    Taylor Hall – Welcome Home.

    I’ll see myself out.

  93. Durag says:

    I will say that all of these recent contracts we’re handing out are very buyout friendly.

  94. Pescador says:

    godot10:
    .Be patient.

    I believe we have that covered

  95. Profit says:

    ArmchairGM,

    I’d take that bet every single year – Reider or Archibald.

    You’re not into cheap, 1 year bets? If that is ALL Chia did we certainly wouldn’t be in this shape.

    Be mad about the situation, you obviously are. The Archibald signing isn’t anything to get worked up over. Good bet.

    That being said… I’m not an ArmchairGM.

  96. ArmchairGM says:

    If we project our roster onto an average NHL team, this is what we get:

    1st line players: [2] McDavid, Draisaitl
    2nd line players: [1] Nugent-Hopkins
    3rd line players: [0]
    4th line / AHL: [17] Lucic, Gagner, Chaisson, Kassian, Granlund, Khaira, Brodziak, Archibald, Nygard, Jurco, Cave, Haas, Marody, Malone, Gambardella, Russell, Currie

    Prospect with a shot at getting NHL time this season: [2] Yamamoto, Benson

    On the other hand, we’ll have one hell of an AHL team this year… in fact, we’ll have 2 of them.

  97. Darth Tu says:

    ArmchairGM: Yeah, it’s ridiculous. We’ve got like 18 bottom-6 players and 3 top-6 players – WTF is Holland thinking?

    The whole providing competition for the youngsters and fixing the PK has to be the priority for the bottom 6, which seems to be heading in the right direction.

    Top 6 wise we’re similar to last year, the top 3 as you say, and then relying on Chiasson and Kassian fill two of the other slots. That still leaves the left wing as a hole – right now I’m sticking Benson in there. Other than that it’s Lucic, but as previously discussed by everyone and their dog in here, Lucic needs to be in the bottom 6 (3), he’s lost the top 6 mojo (aside from some decent possessions stats with Nuge).

  98. ArmchairGM says:

    Profit:
    ArmchairGM,

    I’d take that bet every single year – Reider or Archibald.

    You’re not into cheap, 1 year bets? If that is ALL Chia did we certainly wouldn’t be in this shape.

    Be mad about the situation, you obviously are. The Archibald signing isn’t anything to get worked up over. Good bet.

    That being said… I’m not an ArmchairGM.

    In isolation, the Archibald “bet” isn’t anything to get worked up about, I agree. Except it’s $300k too much, but I digress. The issue I have is that Holland has added SIX 4th line / tweener players to the 11 that we already had, while doing nothing to shore up the 1st, 2nd or 3rd lines.

    They’re all bets, none of them is a sure thing. We needed more sure things.

  99. ArmchairGM says:

    Darth Tu: The whole providing competition for the youngsters and fixing the PK has to be the priority for the bottom 6, which seems to be heading in the right direction.

    If providing competition for playing time in Bakersfield was Ken’s priority, I’d say he’s doing a damn good job.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    AdmiralAckbar: Fair question. I’d say that if he doesn’t show well this year – call it 1.25 Pts/60?? – it’s time to get worried/trade before the word gets out. If that’s even possible.

    The kid made a claim on draft day. That’s turned into a bill of service that needs to be paid.

    The fact that anyone things that a 22nd overall draft pick going in to his 2nd year of pro should be an established NHL player already is unreasonable in my mind.

    I truly believe that the organization foolishly giving this player games in his draft plus 1 and draft plus 2 years really provided the fan-base with unreasonable expectations on his development timeline.

    Reasonable development would have been his entire rookie pro year in the AHL and go from there with a solid chance of starting his 2nd pro year in the AHL (similar to Benson who was drafted 32 I believe, only 10 spots after Yama – different draft year).

    Yamamoto is a developing prospect and words like “bust” or “worried” are unreasonable to me at this time.

    He needs arrows up this year and I’m fully confident he will provide such up arrows if he could stay healthy.

    Only health leads to a down arrow at this point.

  101. Durag says:

    ArmchairGM:

    2nd line players: [1] Nugent-Hopkins

    How dare you

  102. ArmchairGM says:

    “As to where he’ll fit in Edmonton, that’s anyone’s guess. Ken Holland has been collecting depth forwards at an astonishing clip, and while the Oilers still don’t have enough top six players they could ice three or four fourth lines without any trouble.”

    God bless Young Willis.

  103. Profit says:

    ArmchairGM,

    Sure – but as I also said – I strongly believe this roster isn’t done yet.

    I’m mad as hell and don’t want to take it any longer as well as many posters and fans are. I’m just giving Holland a bit more time to show me his vision.

  104. ArmchairGM says:

    I hope Holland is on the phone with Stan Bowman every day. Although it’s probably pointless due to our cap situation…

  105. ArmchairGM says:

    Profit:
    ArmchairGM,

    Sure – but as I also said – I strongly believe this roster isn’t done yet.

    I’m mad as hell and don’t want to take it any longer as well as many posters and fans are. I’m just giving Holland a bit more time to show me his vision.

    He has run a draft, bought out a player and signed 12 free agents. I think we can see his vision now: he has less than $2M left and 1 contract spot (leaving a reserve) – I don’t see how anything else he does this summer will drastically outweigh what he’s done already.

    This is us.

  106. condormcdavis says:

    Rondo,

    Bookmark this post and let’s chat in five years.

    I’ll give you 20$ if I’m wrong.

    He is a steal at 4 for any other organization.

    Not his fault the suits that run the show are dinosaurs from the 80’s.

  107. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: The issue I have is that Holland has added SIX 4th line / tweener players to the 11 that we already had, while doing nothing to shore up the 1st, 2nd or 3rd lines.

    They’re all bets, none of them is a sure thing. We needed more sure things.

    The only players Holland has signed that have any effect on the Oilers ability to add something higher in the lineup are Smith, Chiasson, Granlund and Khaira (and the latter 2 affect that ability only very marginally).

    Archibald, Nygard, Haas, Jurco will all be paid, if they make the team, effectively the same as the players they replace (be that Benson, Marody, Cave, Brodziak, Gambardella, Malone or other). These signings do not affect the cap.

    It’s like being upset that we have too many young D on ELCs pushing for spots. We’re not because whoever doesn’t make it goes away for cap purposes. But it’s the same for this legion of bottom 6 forwards. They’re interchangeable, Holland could bring on 5 more and it wouldn’t matter (contract limits aside).

  108. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM:
    If we project our roster onto an average NHL team, this is what we get:

    1st line players: [2] McDavid, Draisaitl
    2nd line players: [1] Nugent-Hopkins
    3rd line players: [0]
    4th line / AHL: [17] Lucic, Gagner, Chaisson, Kassian, Granlund, Khaira, Brodziak, Archibald, Nygard, Jurco, Cave, Haas, Marody, Malone, Gambardella, Russell, Currie

    Prospect with a shot at getting NHL time this season: [2] Yamamoto, Benson

    On the other hand, we’ll have one hell of an AHL team this year… in fact, we’ll have 2 of them.

    Yup pretty much
    2nd and 3rd line is going to Cave us this year

  109. Material Elvis says:

    ArmchairGM: If providing competition for playing time in Bakersfield was Ken’s priority, I’d say he’s doing a damn good job.

    I’m not sure that I understand your consternation. He has created a competition for the bottom nine forwards. If they perform well, then the Oilers are getting one year value contracts. If they don’t work out then they can be buried in the AHL or sent back to Europe.

    The bottom of the roster was the biggest problem last year, and I think these moves will definitely move the needle forward. The top of the roster can be addressed next year and the year after. Holland was too handcuffed this summer.

  110. Material Elvis says:

    Oh who am I kidding. The roster is dismal. It will take multiple career years and luck (no injuries) for the team to make the playoffs.

  111. London Jon says:

    ArmchairGM: In isolation, the Archibald “bet” isn’t anything to get worked up about, I agree. Except it’s $300k too much, but I digress. The issue I have is that Holland has added SIX 4th line / tweener players to the 11 that we already had, while doing nothing to shore up the 1st, 2nd or 3rd lines.

    They’re all bets, none of them is a sure thing. We needed more sure things.

    I don’t disagree with you, but what top-6 sure thing should he have signed?

    He was in on Connolly and I’m sure 1 or 2 others who decided not to come here for one reason or another.

    PC would have missile locked on one target and sold the farm for him. Suspect Holland drew a line in the sand on Connolly that Pistol Pete would have gone miles past.

  112. Side says:

    ArmchairGM:
    If we project our roster onto an average NHL team, this is what we get:

    1st line players: [2] McDavid, Draisaitl
    2nd line players: [1] Nugent-Hopkins
    3rd line players: [0]
    4th line / AHL: [17] Lucic, Gagner, Chaisson, Kassian, Granlund, Khaira, Brodziak, Archibald, Nygard, Jurco, Cave, Haas, Marody, Malone, Gambardella, Russell, Currie

    Prospect with a shot at getting NHL time this season: [2] Yamamoto, Benson

    On the other hand, we’ll have one hell of an AHL team this year… in fact, we’ll have 2 of them.

    The 3rd and 4th lines were abysmal for the Oilers last year. Chances are it looks like the overachievers on the 4th will push their way up to the 3rd and we will still have enough 4th liners to make a decent 4th line. It’s a large enough pool of candidates for this to be a decent possibility of happening.

    Progress!…………..??

  113. godot10 says:

    ArmchairGM: He has run a draft, bought out a player and signed 12 free agents. I think we can see his vision now: he has less than $2M left and 1 contract spot (leaving a reserve) – I don’t see how anything else he does this summer will drastically outweigh what he’s done already.

    This is us.

    Holland has $3 million left. If he brings someone onto the roster, somebody goes to Bakersfield freeing up another million.

    It is actually over $3.5 if one buries Manning and Brodziak and brings up cheaper players.

  114. London Jon says:

    ArmchairGM: This is exactly what we all said about Rieder, remember?

    Archibald is an undersized guy that doesn’t have good skill who will be 27 at the start of the season and who is a veteran of 120 NHL games – more than half of them last season. I wouldn’t depend on him to do anything.

    How has he made it to the NHL and played 120 games if he’s both small and unskilled?

  115. ArmchairGM says:

    Material Elvis: I’m not sure that I understand your consternation.He has created a competition for the bottom nine forwards.If they perform well, then the Oilers are getting one year value contracts.If they don’t work out then they can be buried in the AHL or sent back to Europe.

    The bottom of the roster was the biggest problem last year, and I think these moves will definitely move the needle forward. The top of the roster can be addressed next year and the year after.Holland was too handcuffed this summer.

    We have just 3 forwards who are above replacement level. You don’t see a problem with that?

  116. godot10 says:

    Material Elvis:
    Oh who am I kidding.The roster is dismal.It will take multiple career years and luck (no injuries) for the team to make the playoffs.

    Yes, the roster is dismal, but it was poorly coached.

    Tippett just has to be significantly better than #ThoroughlyMediocreCoach.

    If Tippett is an above average coach, and injuries are average, and the goaltenders are average, and the specials teams are each top 10 in the league, this is a team that will contend for the playoffs. If he is not, it will be the last two years all over again.

  117. Material Elvis says:

    ArmchairGM: We have just 3 forwards who are above replacement level. You don’t see a problem with that?

    Of course I see that problem. But I also see the stark lack of cap space that is required to get players that are ‘above replacement’ level. It’s not happening this summer.

  118. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Holland has $3 million left.If he brings someone onto the roster, somebody goes to Bakersfield freeing up another million.

    It is actually over $3.5 if one buries Manning and Brodziak and brings up cheaper players.

    Holland has stated that he wants to keep at least $1M under the cap in order to pay Smith’s bonuses and not accrue a penalty for the following year, hence the “less than $2M” reference. It’s self imposed, but its real.

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    London Jon: How has he made it to the NHL and played 120 games if he’s both small and unskilled?

    He works hard and he blocks shots. He’s a replacement level player at best.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yamamoto is about 6 months younger than Tyler Benson.

    Anyone that watched the Condors this year would likely reasonably agree that, if Yamamoto was healthy, he would have been up and around a PPG just like Benson.

    The older Benson is lauded while the younger Yamamoto is seemingly bordering bust territory – why? because he was drafted 10 spots ahead (in a different year but 22nd overall vs 32nd overall).

  121. Bulging Twine says:

    GMB3:
    I’m at the point where I actually wouldn’t mind signing Thomas Vanek and that isn’t really a good sign is it???

    haha I’m right there with you man

  122. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Last year, the bets were that some/any/all of Pool, Kailer, Zykov, Brodziak, Reider, Strome, Spooner, Rattie, Caggs, Chiasson, Gagner, Cave, other AHL tweeners, etc would emerge and be able to play with skill (or amongst themselves)

    – This year, the bets are that some/any/all of Pool, Kailer, Marody, Benson, Jurco, Nygard, Granlund, Brodziak, Chiasson, Archibald, Gagner, Cave, other AHL tweeners will emerge and be able to play with skill (or amongst themselves)

    – And hope that Lucic “rebounds” (same)

    – And hope that the team buys what Tippet is selling

    – So hopefully Holland’s “bets” are better than the previous regimes bets, and that the top-4 D that play those 320 games are better than that top-4 D from last year, and our goalies make more saves

    – That’s it folks

    – Unless of course there are wicked good trades that our GM does, and free-agents on deals come

    * while I am not as sure as Ricki that these “bets” are better than before, as i said last year, if they work out we will be good. If some of the ones Ricki likes work out well this year, then Holland is great. If they don’t: well what do you expect: Chia left him a stinky bag

  123. McSorley33 says:

    ArmchairGM,

    “As to where he’ll fit in Edmonton, that’s anyone’s guess. Ken Holland has been collecting depth forwards at an astonishing clip, and while the Oilers still don’t have enough top six players they could ice three or four fourth lines without any trouble.”

    God bless Young Willis.
    ************************************************************************************************
    You have to look at the bright side, this organization is not collecting 3rd pairing Dmen anymore…..

  124. rickithebear says:

    Just woke up to find out we signed the top 6 fwd evg scoring winger I most wanted in free agency.
    We lack PK fwd depth.
    We just signed the best PK forward available in free agency.
    12th best over the last 3 seasons.
    Who averages 68 gm 9 Evg
    Holland adds to top 6 fwd EVG winger depth and fills the biggest need our team had.
    Paid 1M for an expected 1.6M player.

    Once again Leadfarmer & Frjohnk!
    Saying an 8 evg winger is not a top 6 fwd does not make it true.
    A top 62 winger starts at 8 evg avg over last 3 seasons.
    I checked!

    Chaisson 2.15M 77 gm 11.5 evg, top 45 PP fwd
    Archibald 1.0M 68gm 9 evg, #12 pk fwd
    Granlund 1.3M 79 gm 9 Evg,
    Jurco .75M Top 6 fwd evg winger pace in DET & CHI

    We got 3 of the 5 players I really wanted and thought might come in under 2M based on EW salary projections. All with above average ev shot density.
    Archibald 11.67%
    fillpulla 11.72%
    chiasson 12.92%
    Pomminville 9.10%
    Granlund 10.23%
    3 of the top 10 ev sh density forwards available in free agency.
    1 a PP1 player
    1 a PK1 player

    Brilliant work done by Holland.
    Facts counter to all the constructed false narratives presented on here.

  125. London Jon says:

    ArmchairGM: He works hard and he blocks shots. He’s a replacement level player at best.

    He’s also apparently a plus skater, smart, disciplined and a high end PKer.

    I think he’s a good addition.

    3rd line, 4th line and PK were awful last year and they should be decent this year.

    Having 4 bottom 6 players that can PK also means the top 3, especially Nuge, aren’t wasting time on the PK. Might be wrong but I recall the big 3 played c. 4 mins total on the PK per game so transferring that time to 5 on 5 makes a big difference

  126. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    With all the top 6 forwards we’ve signed and all the box protection D we have we must be fairly close to winning the cup

  127. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Yamamoto is about 6 months younger than Tyler Benson.

    Anyone that watched the Condors this year would likely reasonably agree that, if Yamamoto was healthy, he would have been up and around a PPG just like Benson.

    The older Benson is lauded while the younger Yamamoto is seemingly bordering bust territory – why?because he was drafted 10 spots ahead (in a different year but 22nd overall vs 32nd overall).

    No. My reason for doubting his NHL viability is his skating is only average and he gets his ass kicked all over the ice. Those two deficiencies outweigh his strengths, in my opinion. Hope I am wrong. The first could be improved upon … others have done it. The second, well … it is what it is.

  128. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Holland has stated that he wants to keep at least $1M under the cap in order to pay Smith’s bonuses and not accrue a penalty for the following year, hence the “less than $2M” reference. It’s self imposed, but its real.

    At this point any player who is signed (and makes the team) knocks someone else off the roster, so there is something like $3M left for an addition. Or 2 X $2M players, since that would bump 2 “incumbents”.

  129. rickithebear says:

    Calling these players AHL tweeters.
    Granland
    Gagner
    Chaisson
    Kassian
    Archibald
    When they have all performed as top 6 forward evg wingers.

    It is a non fact based attempt to pretend your constructed narative has any value.
    I do not know if you understand you are lying.
    Or
    if you are a product of parts of current education.

    It is the problem with non STEM based higher education deptartments saying it is ok to lie!
    Allowing People to be accepting of lies if it fits the constructed narative they speak.

  130. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    rickithebear:
    Calling these players AHL tweeters.
    Granland
    Gagner
    Chaisson
    Kassian
    Archibald
    When they have all performed as top 6 forward evg wingers.

    – To be clear, I wasn’t referring to these guys as AHL tweeners, I was saying any of these guys plus any AHL tweeners (to capture the Curries, Gambabellas, etc). If you were referring to me that is

    – Holland has assembled a whole bunch of players he hopes emerges. If a few of them do, watch out. Whose to say this isn’t the year?

  131. London Jon says:

    rickithebear:
    Calling these players AHL tweeters.
    Granland
    Gagner
    Chaisson
    Kassian
    Archibald
    When they have all performed as top 6 forward evg wingers.

    It is a non fact based attempt to pretend your constructed narative has any value.
    I do not know if you understand you are lying.
    Or
    if you are a product of parts of current education.

    It is the problem with non STEM based higher education deptartments saying it is ok to lie!
    Allowing People to be accepting of lies if it fits the constructed narative they speak.

    This is a ridiculous post. So everyone who disagrees with what you believe is not just an idiot but a liar as well?

    I strongly suspect the people you are calling liars and/or idiots are neither of those things.

    You also clearly don’t know what the word lying means.

  132. frjohnk says:

    rickithebear,

    Last night you were saying that Granlund, Kassian and Chiasson are all top line wingers with the big 3.

    rickithebear: Draisaitl – Mcdavid – Kassian
    Chaisson – RNH – Granlund
    —————————————- All 4 above wingers are 1st line fwds playing with 1st line centers.

    What numbers are you using here for these 3 guys to be in the top 62 wingers?

    rickithebear: Lucic – Haas – Gagner
    Khaira – Brodziak – Jurco
    ————————————— All 4 above wingers are 2 Nd line fwds playing with 2nd line centers.

    Lucic, Gagner, Khaira, Jurco are all in the top 124 wingers in the game?

    Hass and Brodziak are in the top 62 centers?

    So to recap, from your numbers we have
    1st liners- Drai, RNH, McDavid, Kassian, Chiasson, Granlund

    2nd liners- Lucic, Hass, Gagner, Khaira, Brodziak, Jurco and now Archibald

    3rd liners- none

    4th liners- none

    Other than Drai, RNH and McDavid, not even the mothers of the rest of the players listed think those players are 1st/2nd liners as you have stated.

    Ricki, when your models, theories, come up with stuff like this, the majority of people are definitely going to question it.

  133. London Jon says:

    frjohnk:
    rickithebear,

    Last night you were saying that Granlund, Kassian and Chiasson are all top line wingers with the big 3.

    What numbers are you using here for these 3 guys to be in the top 62 wingers?

    Lucic, Gagner, Khaira, Jurco are all in the top 124 wingers in the game?

    Hass and Brodziak are in the top 62 centers?

    So to recap, from your numbers we have
    1st liners- Drai, RNH, McDavid, Kassian, Chiasson, Granlund

    2nd liners- Lucic, Hass, Gagner, Khaira, Brodziak, Jurco and now Archibald

    3rd liners- none

    4th liners- none

    Other than Drai, RNH and McDavid, not even the mothers of the rest of the players listed think those players are 1st/2nd liners as you have stated.

    Ricki, when your models, theories, come up with stuff like this, the majority of people are definitely going to question it.

    We have two 1st lines and two 2nd lines.

    Plan the parade!!

  134. Lowetide says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Last year, the bets were that some/any/all of Pool, Kailer, Zykov, Brodziak, Reider, Strome, Spooner, Rattie, Caggs, Chiasson, Gagner, Cave, other AHL tweeners, etcwould emerge and be able to play with skill (or amongst themselves)

    – This year, the bets are that some/any/all of Pool, Kailer, Marody, Benson, Jurco, Nygard, Granlund, Brodziak, Chiasson, Archibald, Gagner, Cave, other AHL tweeners will emerge and be able to play with skill (or amongst themselves)

    – And hope that Lucic “rebounds” (same)

    – And hope that the team buys what Tippet is selling

    – So hopefully Holland’s “bets” are better than the previous regimes bets, and that the top-4 D that play those 320 games are better than that top-4 D from last year, and our goalies make more saves

    – That’s it folks

    I think this is a fair assessment, and I do think a player like Brett Connolly would have moved the needle. If I’m honest, I like the bet more this year, maybe it’s because Benson and Marody and the other kids are a year older.

  135. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    I do find it amusing that the person yelling the loudest about non binary analysis uses the most binary analysis of any of the posters on here. And the closer he gets to binary analysis the louder he gets that it’s not binary
    Forwards even goals for > 10 = 1
    Even goals for < 10 = 0
    Defense Evga in top 100 = 1
    Even strength goals against outside of top 100 =0
    All the talk about quantum mechanics level statistical analysis
    But broken down to the most binary analysis to date
    You still haven’t answered OPs question of what is your projection of Quinn Hughes
    Because with one brilliant question OP has debunked 20 out of 23 Bear theories. All this talk of decades spent analyzing tape and date has been turned into two sets of 0s and 1s
    Pooh bear is lost in the woods. And he’s wondering why no one is joining him

  136. jp says:

    rickithebear,

    Re: Archibald on the PK.

    I know you value goals above all else, but were you aware that every non-goal measure indicates that Archibald is a mediocre to bad penalty killer?

    In what I surmise to be your sample where Archibald is a top 12 pk over three seasons (despite only playing the past 2) – 4on5 forwards over 115 minutes. That sample includes 224 forwards. Of those, Archibald was:

    191st in Corsi against
    183rd in Fenwick against
    132nd in shots against
    132nd in scoring chances against

    I hope he can continue to keep pk goals down, but I highly suspect he’s an average penalty killer at best.

  137. deardylan says:

    London Jon: This is a ridiculous post. So everyone who disagrees with what you believe is not just an idiot but a liar ..

    Are we playing three truths, one lie game?

    Ricki is pushing our buttons and watching adults crumble into kids faster than you can say Putin’s Pudding

    All Hail Doctor Ricki and His Frankenstein Models of Scheer Monstrous Statistical Stalagtitties

    Everything is True, Doh!

    #rickidontlosemynumber

  138. Reja says:

    ArmchairGM: I highly doubt Bouchard slides again this year.

    The only place Bouchard is sliding this year is on the top 5 PP. Outside the box why can’t we dress 7 D double shift Leon or mcdavid on the 4th keep both of them off the PK until last few seconds.We desperately need to hit the ground running and take the pressure off and play more relaxed. It’s all about confidence just ask St. Louis add in a top 15 PK and with first shot Talbot gone we will make the playoffs.

  139. Side says:

    *reads Ricki’s post that says Fayne, Nikitin and Nick Schultz would have been a good defensive foundation that would lead the Oilers to multiple Stanley Cups. Doesn’t understand with Ricki’s math, don’t agree with Ricki’s logic. Contemplates whether I really am a social justice warrior, stupid and or a liar as Ricki implies.*

    Me “Ricki’s wayyy off base. This is nuts”

    *reads Ricki’s post saying that the Oilers actually have a very good forward line up this year and Holland did an excellent job. Still doesn’t understand Ricki’s math or logic*

    Me “YEAHHH OILERS ARE GOING TO WIN THE CUP THIS YEAR! GET WOKE EVERYONE! LETS GO OILERS! clap clap clapclapclap”

  140. Reja says:

    Side:
    *reads Ricki’s post that says Fayne, Nikitin and Nick Schultz would have been a good defensive foundation that would lead the Oilers to multiple Stanley Cups. Doesn’t understand with Ricki’s math, don’t agree with Ricki’s logic. Contemplates whether I really am a social justice warrior, stupid and or a liar as Ricki implies.*

    Me “Ricki’s wayyy off base. This is nuts”

    *reads Ricki’s post saying that the Oilers actually have a very good forward line up this year and Holland did an excellent job. Still doesn’t understand Ricki’s math or logic*

    Me “YEAHHH OILERS ARE GOING TO WIN THE CUP THIS YEAR! GET WOKE EVERYONE! LETS GO OILERS! clap clap clapclapclap”

    That’s the spirit.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: And, just like that, we’re at 50 contracts. Forty-nine plus Puljujarvi. What were you saying about impeding other signings?!

    Only if you want to intentionally ignore the two certain slides.

  142. OriginalPouzar says:

    texmex: I believe there are 3 slide contracts (Bro, Bouch, Rodrigue) included in the 49? So are we at 46 + JP?

    I admittedly do not fully understand the the slide contract thing.

    No slide for Bouchard – his ELC kicks in this year.

  143. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: Slide contracts do not count against the 50 contract limit if the player goes back to Jr.

    Those 3 are eligible but Bouchard will turn pro so his contract will not slide. So 47+JP.

    A contract can potentially slide while a player is in the AHL as well, doesn’t necessarily relate to playing junior.

    With that said, Bouchard’s contract and ELC will kick in this year no matter where he plays.

    2 slides so we are at 47 subject to any more signings.

    Hopefully Jesse makes it 48.

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: I am fine with all the cheap 1 year deals but this feels like a consolation signing. Like we couldn’t sign anyone better so Archibald will do. My guess is that we are now finished with free agent signings this summer. 50 contracts with 2 slides means we have room for 1 PTO signing in the fall and 1 spare space on the 50 man for the start of the season.Doubt that Holland wants to cut it any closer.
    That means the only significant roster change will comevia trade. Contract in for contract out sort of thing. Ladies and gentlemen,this is your 2019/2020 Edmonton Oilers.
    I think we are a lottery team again. As long as the rookies progress, and establish themselves as NHL players, I think I can live with this for 1 more year.
    But next year’s team better be a legit playoff team.

    Seems like you are counting Jesse in your contract number there and I would suggest that if Jesse does sign, they won’t be signing any player off a PTO.

  145. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar: A contract can potentially slide while a player is in the AHL as well, doesn’t necessarily relate to playing junior.

    Does this have to do with signing by 18 or 19, vis a vis why you were express in your hope for Pete to sign McLeod to his ELC earlier than later?

  146. PennersPancakes says:

    I think I would love a top 6 winger (Gusev?) as anyone else but I imagine we end up with a decent 3C by the end of the off season. Given what Holland was dealt I am not angry with what hes done. Maybe I am optimistic just because the thought of giving into another shit oilers season is too depressing. Things I like:

    – Fresh start for Larsson: For whatever reason, he had a very poor season. Like to think hes not dropping off a cliff at 26 and is prime to bounce back as a solid rock in the top 4. An increase in his performance would boost Nurse/Klefbom as well.

    – Tippet/Kosk/Smith: TMac systems always seems like the starter gets burnt out and the back up gets thrown in having not played for two weeks. Its is my hope that Tippet isnt the same. Smiths best season is under Tippet and he pulled his game together near the end of the system. Oilers Save% was .896 last season while league average was .905. Getting to league average alone would shave off 24 GA.

    – New bottom six: Oilers had an absolute black hole of a bottom six. Whether thats on usage/systems or a lack of talent they provided nearly no offense. With Hollands FA signings it is a bet, but one I will take, that our bottom six will be a lot better. Not every bet will pan out but there should be enough options to be at least average.

    – Special teams: Power play was pretty good at 21.2% (9th). Not an absolute heater but good, and should be repeatable with McDavid/Drai/Nuge/Klef playing large roles. Penalty kill was second worst in the league at 74.8%, if you bump that up to the median ~80% that results in 13 less GA.

  147. Bulging Twine says:

    Josh Archibald, 26, 5’10”, 176 Right shot Winger
    Born Regina but played in the world jr’s for usa. trader.

    Drafted in 2011, 6th round by Pittsburgh who seem to have a talent at finding smaller, faster, shifty players late in the draft.
    Went the College route. 3 years at Nebraska-“Omaha. Omaha”
    Took him a while to get traction in the league.
    Only ended up playing 14 regular season games and 4 playoff games for Pittsburgh, scoring 3 goals. No assists.

    Traded in this trade: 2017-Dec-19 Traded from Pittsburgh Penguins with Sean Maguire and round 6 pick in the 2019 draft (Anthony Romano) to Arizona Coyotes for Michael Leighton and round 4 pick in the 2019 draft (Eric Hjorth)

    and got his opportunity to play regularly with the Kayoteees other wise known as Kai-utes.

    4 days later he got in a fight with Nathan McKinnon. Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiYNIR8rsgM He got a game misconduct for it.

    He played 39 games with them in 17-18 scoring 5-6-11 (all at EV) with 25 penalty minutes (5 minors, 1 fighting, and a game misconduct). He was -2

    That was a 10.5 goal – 12.6 assist – 23.1 point pace

    .28 ppg playing 12:04 per game (:51 PK)

    EV strength: 5g – 5P1A – 1 second assist -> .7g/60 – .7P1A/60 – .84A/60 = 1.54evp/60
    SH% 12.5

    ——-
    This last season:

    68gp – 12g – 10a – 22pts
    .32 pts/game
    +1 15pim – 5 minors, 1 fighting major with newly acquired Jets Defenceman Neal Pionk. Here’s the fight: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWlnzXeS-LE – decision win

    on pace over 82 games for: 14.5 – 12 = 26.5

    Sh%13

    TOI: 13:34 (1:36 SH)

    advanced stats:
    all even strength pts but 1 PK assist
    12g – 5 P1A – 4second A = 9A – 21 pts EV
    3g and 1P1a of those were against an empty net.

    5×5 rates: .69g/60 – .31pa – .31sa – .61ta = 1.3pt/60 (EDIT note in case you read this earlier – I changed to 5×5 rates from EV rates because of the empty net goals. Apologies)

    ———

    Over the 2 years he’s taken 7 minors and drawn 18

    Last year out of FW’s who played more than 600 minutes his Hits/60 ranked 21

    independent xgf rate the last 2 seasons: .42 and .75

    On Arizona’s 3rd ranked PK last year he had the 3rd best GA rate out of the 6 FW’s who played more than 80 PK minutes. Grabner and Richardson were the clear leaders.

    His most common linemate by a large margin was Lawson Crouse who had 5×5/60 rates of .52 – .78 = 1.31 over the last two seasons. They played 605 minutes together.
    Offensively their on ice scoring rates were better together than apart. Archibald did better when not with Crouse than Crouse did apart from Archibald.

    edit to add: Archibald was suspended 2 games for an illegal check to the head of Ryan Hartman:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1UaFo_dnd0

  148. rickithebear says:

    OriginalPouzar: Only if you want to intentionally ignore the two certain slides.

    Thanks for the facts.

    To correct that constructed Narative.

    Cause you do present facts most times.

    I am still certain my father & I met you on the Salmon arm Golf club Small coarse years back.
    When you were wearing Oilers gear & mentioned Lowetide blog site.

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Hoping, hoping, hoping, hoping, hoping. Every summer it’s the same thing. And here we thought that getting an experienced manager would change things.

    I will hope, hope, hope, that the fan base will be reasonable and allow the new manager more than 2 months to make over a bad team that had zero cap space, a number of boat anchor contracts with trade protection, other contracts with trade protection and very few tradeable assets with value before I issue a verdict. I may even the manager a second off-season, maybe even a third, considering his stated goals – which align with my stated goals – contending for the Stanley Cup.

  150. LoDog says:

    Godot is all over this one. The best move is to wait out soon to be cap crunched teams later this summer.

    Jp out gusev in? Something like that could happen.

  151. rickithebear says:

    Bulging:

    I was wonder weather you were in a paid hockey position based on your quick know
    Edge impact on this blog.

    After your 4:51 post.

    Independent xGF!

    What organization do you work for.

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I highly doubt Bouchard slides again this year.

    I am 100% certain that he won’t as he’s not eligible for slide.

    If a player is eligible for slide, it doesn’t matter if he plays in the CHL, AHL or any league as long as its not 10 games in the NHL.

    Bouchard isn’t eligible for slide any more.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    This is the definition of throwing crap at the wall and hoping something sticks

    A 1.50P/60 player in the bottom 6 (80% of his ice with Lawson Crouse and then with Kempe and Cousins) that was a top PK guy on a top PK team – for $1M.

    I’ll take that player.

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: We’re not in a position to take advantage though – we’ve signed too many bottom-6 / tweeners / AHLers. We now have less than $2M in cap space including Holland’s $1M allowance for perfomance bonuses.

    As has been stated a few times, signing a player or players for $1.075M or less has essentially zero effect on our cap space. Archibald, if he makes the team, doesn’t add $1M to the cap, he replaces the cap hit of someone like Joe G or Nygard or whoever we previously slotted in that he’s replacing.

    The only way it could stop Holland for acquiring a player is due to the 50 and there is room there.

    I guess one could posit the cap difference between an Archibald and a Joe G. could cripple Holland’s ability but it seems unlikely.

    If there is a deal out there for Gusev, for example, the Archibald signing will have nominal impact, if any, on making it.

  155. OriginalPouzar says:

    texmex:
    Current roster has 9 UFAs + 4 RFAs with ~ 27 million in cap space next summer.

    Taylor Hall – Welcome Home.

    I’ll see myself out.

    With 10 players signed so 13 to add to the roster. One being Nurse, so 12 to add to the roster with apx $20M.

    Good thing Russell will be disposed of next off-season and replaced by an ELC/2nd contract for cheap (Bouchard, Lagesson, Samorukov, etc.)

  156. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I am 100% certain that he won’t as he’s not eligible for slide.

    If a player is eligible for slide, it doesn’t matter if he plays in the CHL, AHL or any league as long as its not 10 games in the NHL.

    Bouchard isn’t eligible for slide any more.

    He’s listed as slide eligible on Capfriendly. Would he not slide if he went back to the OHL for draft +2? I have no idea, but suspect he could slide.

  157. pts2pndr says:

    Sierra: Or maybe Holland has thought of it and the likes of Ottawa doesn’t want Gagner.

    Gagner is an NHL player. He is payed more than teams can afford for what he brings. The Oilers need NHL players. His cap hit over a entry level player is insufficient in my opinion, to dump him for no value coming back.

  158. jp says:

    pts2pndr: Gagner is an NHL player. He is payed more than teams can afford for what he brings. The Oilers need NHL players. His cap hit over a entry level player is insufficient in my opinion, to dump him for no value coming back.

    Wow.

    I agree Gagner can provide something to a team. But I would dump him in a second and without hesitation for his cap hit. Zero need for value being returned.

  159. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: We have just 3 forwards who are above replacement level. You don’t see a problem with that?

    We have two of the most productive players in the NHL. We have some of the best young talent at D bubbling under. Is our roster perfect. No it isn’t but accentuating the negative while undervaluing the positives is unfair. Patience at this time of year is both intelligent and correct. I understand your frustration but sometimes the best action is no action at all. There should be no panic moves. When a good deal is available make the deal. The best value will come further down the road.

  160. pts2pndr says:

    deardylan: Are we playing three truths, one lie game?

    Ricki is pushing our buttons and watching adults crumble into kids faster than you can say Putin’s Pudding

    All Hail Doctor Ricki and His Frankenstein Models of Scheer Monstrous Statistical Stalagtitties

    Everything is True, Doh!

    #rickidontlosemynumber

    Fair to attack the ideas not fair to attack the man. Truth like beauty is like many other things in life, it is in the eye of the beholder.

  161. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    I hope Holland is on the phone with Stan Bowman every day. Although it’s probably pointless due to our cap situation…

    Yes, our cap situation has prohibited us from taking advantaged of cap-issue teams. Of course, signing multiple fully buryable players has had zero effect on that.

  162. Buddy says:

    McSorley33:
    ArmchairGM,

    “As to where he’ll fit in Edmonton, that’s anyone’s guess. Ken Holland has been collecting depth forwards at an astonishing clip, and while the Oilers still don’t have enough top six players they could ice three or four fourth lines without any trouble.”

    God bless Young Willis.
    ************************************************************************************************
    You have to look at the bright side, this organization is not collecting 3rd pairing Dmen anymore…..

    It only took them about nine years to realize that wasn’t a winning strategy.

    We’re about four years into the stockpiling of 4th liners era.

    The question we ask just before every season: how many of these men are about to play their final games in the NHL?

  163. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: He has run a draft, bought out a player and signed 12 free agents. I think we can see his vision now: he has less than $2M left and 1 contract spot (leaving a reserve) – I don’t see how anything else he does this summer will drastically outweigh what he’s done already.

    This is us.

    Yes, this is us – although I do think he’ll grab a 3C as he has stated he has and he’s done exactly as he’s stated.

    Of course, this was highly foreseeable and, yes, we can see his vision and, again, as he’s stated, he vision is a consistent contender year after year and its going to be take a couple of years to build.

    Seems many are focused on this season and, of course, we all are as its up coming, however, the GM is not taking his eye off the ultimate goal and will be ready to ponce in the years to come because of not committing this year.

  164. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: At this point any player who is signed (and makes the team) knocks someone else off the roster, so there is something like $3M left for an addition. Or 2 X $2M players, since that would bump 2 “incumbents”.

    There isn’t enough space for 2 more players, not on the 50-man nor in Bakersfield.

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    Are daily attacks, actually multiple times per day attacks, on the intelligence of posters that don’t agree with a “proprietary based” analytical structure, continue to be permitted? Is it Ok because its the fault of the education system. I wish great healthy for all but, my goodness.

  166. ArmchairGM says:

    Side: reads Ricki’s post

    Now there’s something I never do.

  167. rickithebear says:

    side:

    Fayne, Nikitin, Schultz.
    You need 1st, 2nd, 3rd comp save% establishing anchors on any given d pair.

    But leads.
    Leads what?
    once again a delusional constructive narative

    I break up what best drives Championship competition.

    What is point #1 Of my cup core roster.

    A 3-2-1 Open HD SH def system coach.

    What is point #2 of my cup core roster.
    Top +ve save% performer over Dpair baseline.

    What is point #3 of my cup core roster.
    3+ top open HD shot dmen. Preferably 1st/2nd comp.
    You need all three to have the potential to be a top GA team.

    Now on to GF

    What is point #4 of my cup core roster.
    Top 125 fwd scoring depth.
    Simplified 16G 39P in all style of play.

    What is point #5 of my cup core roster.
    You want top special teams.
    Top PPG fwds 7.65 PPGF/60
    Top

    More defined look at those 2 points:
    You want Top 6 EVG production deep As possible.
    9-12 fwd deep.
    This is all common sense.

    It is dependent on Dmen getting the forwards thevpuck as quickly as possible.
    One of the Dpair should be a above avg passer.
    I have always stated that.
    Interesting that all the constructive narative people on here never include the strong passing def responsible in there false narative.

    They outright lie about what I want from my dmen to fit their Narative.
    Unless I am to believe that they think goaltenders are the best passer of the puck.

    When it comes to offence.
    When it comes to offence I have allways believed.

    “DMEN GET THE FWDS THE PUCK ASAP.

    That is people like lead farmer who thought an meant goaltenders when I said
    Get the forwards the puck ASAP.

    you want top PP forward units
    Draisaitl, Mcdavid, RNH, Chaisson
    You want top PK forward and Dman units
    Archibald #12, Khaira top 40,
    Larsson #120, bottom 40 is our best dman.

    Goaltenders are all the best option for getting the forwards the puck.
    That is the best of your narratives so far Leadfarmer.

  168. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: There isn’t enough space for 2 more players, not on the 50-man nor in Bakersfield.

    I don’t get it. Why not?

    49 contracts. Minus 2 slide rules. Plus maybe Puljujarvi or a warm body in return. The team doesn’t HAVE to leave space for PTOs or lopsided trades if they want to sign Sheahan and Vanek or whatever. Where’s the issue?

  169. OriginalPouzar says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey: Does this have to do with signing by 18 or 19, vis a vis why you were express in your hope for Pete to sign McLeod to his ELC earlier than later?

    Yup, because McLeod signed in the 2019 calendar year his “signing age” is 20 (he turns 20 on Sept 19 I believe) and he isn’t subject to slide. If he would have signed on December 31, 2018 (or earlier), his ELC would have slid this coming year if he doesn’t play 10 NHL games, even if he’s playing pro in the AHL:

    In the event that an 18 year old or 19 year old Player signs an SPC with a
    Club but does not play at least ten (10) NHL Games in the first season
    under that SPC, the term of his SPC and his number of years in the Entry
    Level System shall be extended for a period of one (1) year, except that
    this automatic extension will not apply to a Player who is 19 according to
    Section 9.2 by virtue of turning 20 between September 16 and December
    31 in the year in which he first signs an SPC.

  170. OriginalPouzar says:

    PennersPancakes:

    – Fresh start for Larsson: For whatever reason, he had a very poor season. Like to think hes not dropping off a cliff at 26 and is prime to bounce back as a solid rock in the top 4. An increase in his performance would boost Nurse/Klefbom as well.

    I can’t imagine that he fell off a cliff at 26 – in fact, he’s about to hit his prime for his type of d-man.

  171. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I can’t imagine that he fell off a cliff at 26 – in fact, he’s about to hit his prime for his type of d-man.

    Unless it’s those chronic back injuries slowing him down 🙂

    (I’m just teasing you, there’s no reason to think he won’t rebound)

  172. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: He’s listed as slide eligible on Capfriendly. Would he not slide if he went back to the OHL for draft +2? I have no idea, but suspect he could slide.

    My mistake, I thought he turned 19 before Sept 15 in his draft year. He is eligible for slide and that applies even if he is in the AHL.

    If a player is eligible for slide, it doesn’t matter if he’s playing pro or junior as long as he doesn’t play 10 NHL game.

    I apologize for the misinformation on Bouchard and the slide.

  173. Mr DeBakey says:

    A non-random sample of NHL forwards and their 5v5 goals over the past 3 seasons:

    Milan Lucic ** 21
    Kyle Brodziak ** 21
    Ryan Spooner ** 20
    Sam Gagner ** 19
    Tobias Rieder ** 19
    Benoit Pouliot ** 18
    Josh Archibald ** 16
    Pontus Aberg ** 14
    Jesse Puljujarvi ** 14
    Jujhar Khaira ** 12

    Lucic is about 250th among forwards.
    19/18 is the line between 3rd and 4th liners.

  174. rickithebear says:

    Pouzar Facts are easy to check.
    It is the duty of any moral person to call bullshit if facts show it.

    My term constructive narative
    Is just a nice term for
    non fact supported point of view.
    Or
    Outright lying!

    Archibald #12 4.57 PKga/60 forward in the game = pk unit #1
    Chaisson #42 8 PPG forward in the game.
    8 evg/ season is the starting point of top 6 fwd ( 2nd line ) winger evg production.

    Players with a top 124 ( top 6 fwd). ( 2nd line) winger 8 evg pace/ production history.
    Draisaitl
    Chaisson
    Kassian
    Granlund
    Archibald
    Gagner
    Jurco
    Khaira
    We have 8 wingers with top 6 fwd history.

    Lucic has never been in a 3-1-1-1 system.
    I am hoping we go to a winning dominate 3-2-1 approach under Tippett.

    In the last 3 years these forwards have shown top 3 forward evg scoring.
    Draisaitl
    Mcdavid
    RNH
    Granlund.
    All nat stat supported facts.

    To say
    Chaisson
    Granlund
    Archibald
    Jurco
    Have not been top 6 evg production pace forwards is outright incorrect.

    Which the nice way is to call it a narrative!

  175. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: There isn’t enough space for 2 more players, not on the 50-man nor in Bakersfield.

    No roster limit for Bakersfied. Playing time, of course, however it a guy like Safin has to start the year in Wichita, so be it.

  176. Dr. Taboggan says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    That list is grotesque. Ew. When do 2020 draft rankings start being released? Oilers should consider loaning McDavid to another team for a couple of years in exchange for 1st round picks.

  177. digger50 says:

    ArmchairGM: He has run a draft, bought out a player and signed 12 free agents. I think we can see his vision now: he has less than $2M left and 1 contract spot (leaving a reserve) – I don’t see how anything else he does this summer will drastically outweigh what he’s done already.

    This is us.

    Maybe Connor should just sit this one out.

  178. Bulging Twine says:

    rickithebear:
    Bulging:

    I was wonder weather you were in a paid hockey position based on your quick know
    Edge impact on this blog.

    After your 4:51 post.

    Independent xGF!

    What organization do you work for.

    Oh, thank you. No. I wish

  179. Bulging Twine says:

    Archibald was also suspended 2 games for an illegal check to the head of Ryan Hartman :https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1UaFo_dnd0

  180. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I don’t like extrapolating
    Last year I got on yours and Woodguys case for extrapolating the results of bottom pairing D on to top 4 roles
    This year it’s stop extrapolating the results of a guy that is not on the top pk unit to a top pk unit
    Archibald was 4th on his team in forwards in sh Toi per game at 1:30. Richardson and Stepan were 230 and 200 respectively.
    Crouse and Panik were 1:15 range
    There’s ways to shelter penalty killers including time against second units and on the fly shifts
    I don’t watch enough Coyotes to know how he was used
    You need at least a center on each pk unit and two d.
    Wouldn’t surprise me if Granlund or Archie were not top 4 pk toi forwards next year despite their results on other teams
    I will cheer for the guy like crazy but I don’t put guys that scored more goals than 2 out of 3 Ahl development years and with microstats at the bottom of the league in every category as guys likely to repeat.

  181. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I will hope, hope, hope, that the fan base will be reasonable and allow the new manager more than 2 months to make over a bad team that had zero cap space, a number of boat anchor contracts with trade protection, other contracts with trade protection and very few tradeable assets with value before I issue a verdict.I may even the manager a second off-season, maybe even a third, considering his stated goals – which align with my stated goals – contending for the Stanley Cup.

    He has 1 spot and less than $2M to work with now. Unless he has a blockbuster trade in the works (not his m.o.) this is pretty much us until the deadline. I think 3 months encompassing a draft, buyout period and free agency is enough track to get a read on how the roster will look for the bulk of the next season.

  182. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: I am 100% certain that he won’t as he’s not eligible for slide.

    If a player is eligible for slide, it doesn’t matter if he plays in the CHL, AHL or any league as long as its not 10 games in the NHL.

    Bouchard isn’t eligible for slide any more.

    Capfriendly indicates he is still eligible, but I’m 99% sure he’ll get 10 games in the NHL this season anyhow, making the point moot.

  183. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: A 1.50P/60 player in the bottom 6 (80% of his ice with Lawson Crouse and then with Kempe and Cousins) that was a top PK guy on a top PK team – for $1M.

    I’ll take that player.

    Top PK results? By what metric?

  184. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: My mistake, I thought he turned 19 before Sept 15 in his draft year.He is eligible for slide and that applies even if he is in the AHL.

    If a player is eligible for slide, it doesn’t matter if he’s playing pro or junior as long as he doesn’t play 10 NHL game.

    I apologize for the misinformation on Bouchard and the slide.

    OK, well that’s good. That means we have an additional spot on the 50 man as well. Armchair will be happy, I think.

  185. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: We have two of the most productive players in the NHL. We have some of the best young talent at D bubbling under. Is our roster perfect. No it isn’t but accentuating the negative while undervaluing the positives is unfair. Patience at this time of year is both intelligent and correct. I understand your frustration but sometimes the best action is no action at all. There should be no panic moves. When a good deal is available make the deal. The best value will come further down the road.

    Bottom line: the team is no better today than it was 12 months ago.

  186. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, our cap situation has prohibited us from taking advantaged of cap-issue teams.Of course, signing multiple fully buryable players has had zero effect on that.

    You can only bury so many guys before you’re sending rookie pro’s to the ECHL just to get them ice time. Not a great plan IMO.

  187. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, this is us – although I do think he’ll grab a 3C as he has stated he has and he’s done exactly as he’s stated.

    Of course, this was highly foreseeable and, yes, we can see his vision and, again, as he’s stated, he vision is a consistent contender year after year and its going to be take a couple of years to build.

    Seems many are focused on this season and, of course, we all are as its up coming, however, the GM is not taking his eye off the ultimate goal and will be ready to ponce in the years to come because of not committing this year.

    Serious question: which move has Holland made this summer that contributes to the ultimate goal of building a contender? I don’t see any of the players that he has brought in staying for an eventual Cup run. What do you see that I don’t?

  188. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: I don’t get it. Why not?

    49 contracts. Minus 2 slide rules. Plus maybe Puljujarvi or a warm body in return. The team doesn’t HAVE to leave space for PTOs or lopsided trades if they want to sign Sheahan and Vanek or whatever. Where’s the issue?

    Pretty much every GM leaves at least 1 spot on the 50-man. I don’t imagine Holland is any different.

  189. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Which player would you most want
    A: responsible for 20 gf and 40 against
    B responsible for 50 gf and 50 against
    C responsible for 70 gf and 60 against
    D responsible for 90 gf and 110 against

    Because here lies the problem with your approach. Because your approach would say is the player a forward or a defensemen. But your approach if all were defenseman would be to pick player A because lowest GA and the forward would be D because highest goals for.
    Which both guys are costing you games.
    Because in hockey it’s what you create minus what you give up,
    So your approach misses a whole bunch of players whether forwards or D

    So to another point. We know how much you like to talk forwards are for offense dmen are for defense. And you like to say that forwards don’t affect GA much. Which we know that’s not true. The Belanger triangle could swallow the puck everywhere. We all hear coaches love their two way centers and even strong two way wingers. Why because they effect each part of the ice. Which leads us to one of the better players in the game. Mark Stone. He’s a perfect example. He was around ppg last year on the Sens. But he was a plus 13 on a team where no other regulars were in the positive. This guy has a huge effect on the game
    But just like a forward can have a positive effect they can have a negative effect. So guys like Gagner. While they may produce at a decent clip always give more up in their end so their effect on the game is negative.

  190. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: OK, well that’s good. That means we have an additional spot on the 50 man as well. Armchair will be happy, I think.

    I replied to this already: I’m 99% sure that he’ll get at least 10 games I the NHL this year, meaning his contract is unlikely to slide. We won’t know until March for sure, of course. But I think it wise to go into the season expecting his contract to count against the 50.

  191. leadfarmer says:

    Which leads us to the Ricki defensemen
    The faynes Nikitins Smids Manning’s of the world
    Because it doesn’t matter how good you are defending if you are always defending.
    It doesn’t matter if you successfully defend 93% of the sorties when because of you the opposition can defend 95% of the sorties
    Because you are a net negative on your team
    And these guys can have a terrible effect on your team. From giving the puck in up the boards and out unnecessarily to not making good passes have the effect of playing one man or two man down in the offensive zone
    Because we all know that defensive systems are incredibly hard to break down once they are set up (unless you are Mcdavid). You need to attack them before they are set up which you cannot with the Ricki D because they cannot move the puck. That is why some of these players take a hit to their numbers when they get here. Because we cannot move the puck so we turn it over so we are always defending.
    So some of these new guys may not defend 91% of the sorties but because of them the opposition is defending even less.
    Which is why you don’t want to answer the question of your projection of Quinn Hughes. Because you know that these guys have taken the job away from Ricki defensemen and will continue to destroy your theories

  192. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: I replied to this already: I’m 99% sure that he’ll get at least 10 games Ithe NHL this year, meaning his contract is unlikely to slide. We won’t know until March for sure, of course. But I think it wise to go into the season expecting his contract to count against the 50.

    OP says the contract slides regardless where he plays. I have no idea. But if true this is good because there’s another spot on the 50 we were not counting on.

    Edit, sorry misreading you here. Yes, if he gets NHL games then it won’t slide obviously. So fair to count him against the 50. I was focused on AHL vs OHL, and was under the impression the contract wouldn’t slide if he was in the AHL (which OP thinks it will). For sure he is likely to get 10 NHL games this season.

  193. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: OP says the contract slides regardless where he plays. I have no idea. But if true this is good because there’s another spot on the 50 we were not counting on.

    Edit, sorry misreading you here. Yes, if he gets NHL games then it won’t slide obviously. So fair to count him against the 50. I was focused on AHL vs OHL, and was under the impression the contract wouldn’t slide if he was in the AHL (which OP thinks it will). For sure he is likely to get 10 NHL games this season.

    That’s correct, AHL games don’t count towards the 10 games. Only NHL regular season and playoff games count.

  194. razor says:

    Here’s my new opening night roster:

    Leon McDavid Kassian
    Granlund Nuge Chiasson
    Nygard Khaira Archibald
    Lucic Cave Gagner

    Extras: Haas, Brodziak

    I don’t see any of the youngsters making the team. Benson still needs another year and Marody’s role will have lots of competition. You could swap Nygard with Granlund, but I deferred to NHL experience. I don’t see a 3C anywhere so Khaira’s my Placeholder. I think we need that 3C more than a top 6 winger

  195. rickithebear says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    A non-random sample of NHL forwards and their 5v5 goals over the past 3 seasons:

    Milan Lucic**21
    Kyle Brodziak**21
    Ryan Spooner**20
    Sam Gagner**19
    Tobias Rieder**19
    Benoit Pouliot**18
    Josh Archibald**16
    Pontus Aberg**14
    Jesse Puljujarvi**14
    Jujhar Khaira**12

    Lucic is about 250th among forwards.
    19/18 is the line between3rd and 4th liners.

    Luckily 5×5 is not Total even strength.
    So flawed look at overall evg production.
    Centers have far superior evg production by structure advantage of central attack in the HD area.

    Another narative meant to imply that a 3 year 5×5 forward total tells us what a single season production is for the wingers we have on our team.

    You were able to present top 250. How many of them were centers?
    So we can know what level of winger he is.

    I posted Cummulative RW evg ranks for Kassian & Chaisson recently

    This tells us that some forwards get better opportunity to score in situations that suit their skill

    Go to any series of seasons
    Do not sum their totals.
    Since their are now 31 teams
    There are 124 top 6 evg scoring wingers.
    Look at
    one season 1X 124 is starting point for top 6 wingers, centers must be excluded.
    2 seasons 2 x 124 (248) is starting point for top 6;forward wingers
    3 seasons 3x 124 (372) is starting point

    I have posted the results repeatedly
    On here.

    Abergs evg numbers surprised me this year.
    When I looked at him.
    Thought he had a good chance of evg production.
    Did not think Holland would bring him back.

    The 3 year avg top 252 evg scorers is 24 evg
    73 are LW
    66 are RW
    113 are centers.

    Take 3 years individual goal scoring
    LW 10 evg
    RW 8 evg
    C 13 evg

    8 evg but 10 evg would be preferred for our RW players.
    Chaisson #50 RW 31 evg
    Kassian #57 RW 28 evg
    Granlund #53 RW 30 evg
    Gagner 22 evg in 2.333 seasons
    Jurco

    Archibald LW
    In pit
    14 gm 2 evg 1 SHG
    In Arizona
    107gm 17 evg

    There is the kind of evg scoring history from
    4 RW: Chaisson, Kassian, granlund, Gagner
    And
    3 LW: Draisaitl, Archibald, Jurco
    To give us above average evg production.

  196. rickithebear says:

    Bulging were do you get your independent xGF.
    Would love to inquire about the sites method.

  197. leadfarmer says:

    rickithebear,

    Yet once again. Nowhere do you have how much they give up the other way.
    Forwards are not just for goal production
    Defense are not just for defensemen
    You need a 5 men unit playing together
    One of our problems has been Ricki simplistic binary analytics
    We are outnumbered 3 v 5 in offensive zone
    2 v 5 in the defensive zone
    Nothing flows
    Because like you’ve been saying and pointing out
    Your method Is binary

  198. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: He has 1 spot and less than $2M to work with now. Unless he has a blockbuster trade in the works (not his m.o.) this is pretty much us until the deadline. I think 3 months encompassing a draft, buyout period and free agency is enough track to get a read on how the roster will look for the bulk of the next season.

    Of course we have a sense of how the roster will look for this season. At the same time, of course, the GM’s stated main goal is to build a contending team over the next 2-3 seasons and he has all but expressed that this year will be a re-shaping type year.

    I’ve accepted it, in fact I’ve been suggesting this method for months.

    Of course, I will be excited for each and every game this year – actually, I’ll be excited for the Plymouth tourney to watch some of our amateur prospects, I’ll be excited for rookie camp, for main camp for each exhibition game and for each regular season game. I don’t expect the playoffs but I do think we a “bit of luck” (goaltending), they will be in the conversation.

    Small overpays like Gagner, Kassian, Manning, etc. come off the books next year, Russell will be disposed of, more prospects will be ready for graduation or even top 6 or top 4 roles.

    I’m patient, I see the vision and i share it.

  199. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’m happy Holland has added speed. He’s added players that get after things.

    He’s adding players that play the system. And still get some sort of production.

    He’s added a coach players ‘have’ played hard for and seem to have liked playing for.

    It could be the Russian thing – hoped for the best- or it could be a move forward.

    Given the fact the league is not fluid in player movement and bad contracts on the roster, he’s done what I like so far.

    I’d love a robbery and genius cap dumps, but they are unicorns given he also has to overcome Oiler taint on players. And the wholesale bin the team has behaved as for honks.

    I do think Tippet’s system is going to help the backend a lot. Simplicity, defend good ice, away from man on man or its variant ‘swarm’, much easier for younger and middling players, what Trotz has done very well with in terms of players getting their role and having a defined job more than tactically the same.

    Drinking the koolaid again, but why not, it’s summer which I love and I can’t choose another team to be invested in.

  200. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: You can only bury so many guys before you’re sending rookie pro’s to the ECHL just to get them ice time. Not a great plan IMO.

    For a guy like Ostaf Safin, considering his year in Halifax this past year, I’m just fine with him starting in Wichita.

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