I think the gap between Edmonton’s first and second pick in the 2019 NHL draft is far smaller than the gap between No. 8 and No. 38. The TSN cover photo frames it even more strongly than my rankings (I had Broberg No. 16 and Lavoie No. 26) back on draft day.
This isn’t Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod, not at all. If we’re honest, there’s a chance Edmonton drafted a better player in the second round than the first, based purely on offensive potential.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: Is there anyone left in free agency who can help the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The Oilers have a new amateur scouting director. What can we learn from Tyler Wright’s track record at the draft?
- Lowetide: The Oilers are finally recovering from the wayward 2014 Draft
- Lowetide: Projecting Darnell Nurse’s next contract and possible trades
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: A missing mom, aching feet and looking for Kevin Lowe: A week in the life of Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: What to do when Connor McDavid rests: The Oilers’ ideal No. 2 line for 2019-20
- Lowetide: Adding a scorer will be Ken Holland’s first big move as Oilers GM
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the Oilers’ depth chart looks like now and where they go from here
- Jonathan Willis: How often do goalies like the Oilers’ Mike Smith rebound?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster moves clear the way for Oilers top prospects Tyler Benson and Kailer Yamamoto.
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers GM Ken Holland promises long-term rewards for an approach light on short-term improvements
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trade market now most likely place for Oilers to find scoring winger
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He comes as advertised’: Philip Broberg’s skating makes him development camp standout for Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers plan to skew younger on defence could open the door for Evan Bouchard, Dmitri Samorukov
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
- Lowetide: Are these Jesse Puljujarvi’s final days with the Edmonton Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ranking the Oilers’ trade assets from the high-priced diamonds to those needing fresh starts
- Lowetide: Oilers GM Ken Holland is shopping for 20-goal scorers on a budget. What will he find?
Questions and Answers
Will Kailer Yamamoto return healthy this fall? I wonder about wrist injuries for skill players.
If Ken Holland is done making moves, how many rookies make the big club in the fall? I’ll guess Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody, Caleb Jones, plus Euro players Joakim Nygard and Joel Persson. Many recall rookies during the season, too. I’m cheering for Joe Gambardella.
How much offense will Philip Broberg bring? He scored 2-7-9 in 41 Allsvenskan games (14:33 per game), that works out to 0.91 points-per-60. I couldn’t find a breakdown in toi by discipline. He did score 2-4-6 at evens, 0-3-3 on the power play, and had 83 shots on goal.
In his draft year, Oscar Klefbom scored 23, 1-1-2 in the SHL. That’s 0.62. Filip Johansson was drafted No. 24 in 2018 by the Minnesota Wild, he played in the Allsvenskan, scored 0.24 per 60. He played in the same league draft +1, posting 0.28 per 60. Where does that put us in estimating Broberg? About where we started, but at least we have some first blush stats.
Last season, including playoffs, Raphael Lavoie scored 52 goals in 85 games. Kailer Yamamoto scored 42 in 65 games in his draft year. McDavid? 44 goals in 47 games. Showoff. Point being, Lavoie is one of the best pure scorers drafted by Edmonton in the last five years. He has a clear path to the NHL, beginning next fall.
Joel Persson seems to be the forgotten man when we discuss the opening night lineup. What about a defensive group that lines up Klefbom-Larsson; Nurse-Benning and Russell-Persson? It makes sense from an experience point of view and gets the lefty-righty back on its axis. Plus you add a puck mover to the group, and a power-play option to the lineup.
Cooper Marody is the dark horse among the forwards, but he has some real advantages. He can play center or wing, and is exceptional with the puck on his stick. As a complementary option for the top two lines, he makes a lot of sense. Dave Tippett has Zack Kassian and Alex Chiasson as veteran options who can provide size and some skill, plus Sam Gagner who has experience and plenty of skill. Marody’s assets include a small cap hit, fantastic vision and passing, and the important “if he flourishes this year you have something to build on” card.
Yost will be a guest on the Lowdown today, we’ll chat about the concerns over this team, and what Ken Holland could have done differently.
Dennis Bernstein from The Fourth Period got talking about the LA Kings and some shopping the club is doing this summer. He had an interesting take on Jesse Puljujarvi as a possible target and did discuss Todd McLellan and reasons why there is interest. Also talked about possible targets for the Oilers. Bernstein: “As for the return, I’ve heard that winger Matt Luff is a favorite of new head coach Dave Tippett, who identified the winger as a target for the expansion draft had Tippett chose to exercise more patience in Seattle.” Source
There remain several interesting names, at this point in summer the team has maybe enough for one signing above $1 million. At some point, and we’ll discuss later in July, we’re going to see PTO’s offered and accepted and that should be a strong list. Tippett made out like a bandit with late summer additions in Phoenix.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning gets started at 10, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear: Travis Yost from TSN, as we look at the biggest problems facing the Oilers for 2019-20. Gabe Lacques from USA Today will join us at 11 to chat mlb and trade deadline, plus your comments and questions. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk to you soon!
I’m very happy with what he’s done.
I hope he’s also improved the culture and that Tippett sets up better systems and is a better man manager than the last 2 HCs.
Hope, hope, hope but I like how it’s all sounding so far
I guess I’ll respond point by point.
1. Nygaard, Haas, Archibald and Jurrco are there to compete with guys like Benson and Marody for roster spots. I’m not expecting them to hit it out of the park. These are the kind of guys you get for a million bucks. Low risk, low reward. And, more importantly, short term commitment. Who would you have signed for 1×1?
2. What exactly is a legit, proven bottom 6 player? And can you sign them for 1×1? Or are you willing to commit more money and term to sign Brassard or Sheahan? And are they better than Granlund? Or Khaira? Or Chiasson? None of the guys I am mentioning here are difference makers. I think the guys we signed probably have as much chance to succeed as a Brassard or a Sheahan. (I’m not including Eakins and Haula here because they would cost assets, and command higher salaries) It’s just different versions of meh. But our versions are cheaper.
3. We can’t have nice things because we have Lucic for 4×6. Russell for 2×4. Ganger for 1×3.15. Manning for 1×2.25. These are proven bottom 6 players. Should we get some more of them?
Ricki is an ignorant tool who doesn’t understand the meaning of words.
He never defends his own position. He never responds to criticism. Indeed, he lacks the comprehension to understand that criticism.
He has accused Woodguy of stealing his work, he accuses everyone not simply of stupidity for not understanding his genius, but of moral failure which he then, blindly, blames on various sociological factors. He claims his autism gives him both insight into truth and moral clarity, which makes him a superior kind of being, and the rest of us intellectual and moral children.
He gets away with behaviour for which there is no comparable, and gets nowhere near the intellectual criticism or moral censure that he deserves.
I wouldn’t know; I never read ’em.
Wow, you guys never stop trying to put words into my mouth do you.
– I don’t think 27-year-old European players and career AHLers is doing anything towards stopping the bleeding, especially when some of them will be expected to play above the 4th line. If you do, you’re insane and I won’t reply to you again.
– Nobody is suggesting a huge “blow it up” trade or signing. More Straw Man bullshit.
– I’m not telling Holland to speed up anything. I’m saying the move he’s making have a very low percentage chance of fulfilling his stated goals. If he wants to patch up the bottom-6, he should be hiring proven bottom-6 players, not Jurco and Haas and Nygard. Archibald has played 1 season – ONE, and he’ll be 27 at the start of the season. I’m not expecting him to move the needle. None of the players Holland got are legit, proven players, with the possible exception of Granlund who has been below replacement level for the past 2 seasons.
Why can’t we have nice things? Even in the short term, there are / were other options that would have made more sense.
– a legit winger who can play top-6 and PP (Connolly, Dzingel, Burakovsky)
– a legit 3C (Sheahan, Brassard, Eakin, Haula)
– 2 legit bottom-6 players (too many to list)
This isn’t hard, folks.
Do you mean this is good?
Ricki is one of the strongest posters on Lowetide. His positions he is always prepared to defend, in the face of sometimes large hostility. Nevertheless he never attacks anyone, states his case and on the other hand you play Troll which actually does create hostility.
Unfortunately for you, your past trolling leaves you with precious few natural followers, regardless of how right you might occasionally be.
What’s really funny this summer are those posters who have already decided that Holland, and Tippett are shaping up as some version of Chiarelli/McLellan 2.0 – that’s got to be a hard way to spend a summer.
just a comment to maintain relevance in this doldrum of an Oiler summer… low drama is a good thing, methinks… low(e) expectations, too!
Of the many things I hate about Ricki, the one I hate the most is his misunderstanding and misrepresentation of what a fact is, and how a fact may relate to a truth claim.
His usage of fact conflates it with truth, but no fact, in and of itself, can be true without a corresponding theory that links it to the reality it is supposed to explain. And this theory cannot be proven by the facts, since the facts themselves presuppose the truth of the theory.
In other words, a fact is measured by identity. A=A is a factual claim. Since we don’t know their source, Ricki’s facts are facts insofar as he isn’t misrepresenting them (that is, he is telling the truth). However, their factual nature doesn’t make them true.
Truth, used in this sense, is measured by correspondence. If Fact A corresponds to Reality A then we could say that the fact was true. Here, the Fact cannot be used as its own evidence because it only counts as evidence if it corresponds with Reality, which we cannot know in advance. This is where theory comes in.
Ricki doesn’t understand any of this, which is why he is unable to understand his own errors. He thinks that facts can provide proof, and he doesn’t understand how his facts do not correspond to reality (i.e. they are not true). This is why he doesn’t even respond to the many, legitimate, criticisms that are made of his proprietary “knowledge.”
I also learned today that it is a fact that a center needs to score 13 EVG in order to be as valuable as an RW who scores 8.
It’s a fact.
https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/253509
I think Connelly at 4×3.5 would have been a good signing as well. Have no idea if Holland offered that much or not. That’s the difference between UFAs and RFAs. You don’t get to match the best offer. The player gets to choose where he plays. You can apply the same reasoning to Dzingel. Maybe he doesn’t accept that same contract from Edmonton?
You were the guy who asked which additions would still be here when the Oilers were a cup contender. That indicates a longer term acquisition. Unless you think the Oilers could have won the cup this year or next. The long term additions that will help build a cup contender are coming from the farm, not through free agency.
What Holland is doing this summer is putting on bandaids. Trying to stop the bleeding. Buying the kids some time.
You want bold moves? Like the Reinhart trade? The Hall trade? The Lucic signing? Think where this team would be right now if Chia had just sat on his hands and drafted and developed. But someone told him to speed up the process. To jump start the rebuild.
Kind of like what you are telling Holland to do right now. No?
Well said. A lot of posters here seem to have trouble with the concept of cap space.
And here I was planning to invite you all to my cabin in the northern wilderness for next years celebration.
That movie is going to scare off people from accepting midsummer invitations for a long time…
It is pretty much the best of all sweden’s traditions though. Socially accepted pre-lunch drunkeness, beautiful women in summer dresses, barbecue, sauna and skinny dipping, sun is up most or all of the night(depending on the part of sweden you’re in), the suggestion of sex, preferably outdoors, is sort of implied.
Yeah you get the weird traditional stuff like dancing around an upside down phallos pretending to be a frog and the typical pickled herring you get for every big swedish holiday(not that bad really but it’s not very creative) but overall it’s pretty damn awesome.
So you should all come! We’re always looking for new victim…I mean visitors to join the festivities…
Haas was given assurances of NHL time, Nygard may have as well. Are you forgetting that these are Holland signings – why go to all of the trouble of signing players and then discarding them a few weeks later? It won’t happen and you know it, you’re being intentionally obtuse.
3.5M + 500k is 4.25M now?
Acquiring above-replacement-level players isn’t handcuffing anything. You know that cap becomes less of an issue next summer and the one after.
Of course the players signed are taking up cap space. The Oilers have to submit a 23-man roster of players chosen out of their 50-man list, which currently has just 1 spot left on it (1 being held for JP or his replacement and 1 for future maneuvering). Haas was given express assurances of an NHL paycheque and I’d be surprised if Nygard wasn’t given the same. Jurco is the only guy who may spend significant time in the AHL.
Connolly at $4M x 4 would be acceptable IMO. I said at the time that I would have gone that high, and I believe we would have had a partner for Nuge and a right-shot sniper for PP1.
Dzingel at $3.5M x 2 would have been a roster improvement, too.
and that Connolly contract would have been fine, likely. Of course, it probably would have taken an extra $500K or year to get him to Edmonton and that $4.25M would have handcuffed and restricted Holland from acquiriting a more material player, maybe without any overpay, next year and the for the year after.
Holland chose not to use future cap space or marginal “maybe top 6 forwards” – yes, we know your thoughts on Connolly, however, he is not a proven top 6 forward and signing him would be our bullet.
Again, if they $3M (give or take) for Archibald, Nygard, Hass is needed to sign or acquire another player at any time, that $3M cap be opened and its like those signing never happened vis-a-vis cap space.
Of note, Yamamoto and Puljujarvi are both younger than Benson.
Also, they were both given NHL games, in their draft plus 1 years no less, prior to any AHL development time let alone AHL success.
Absolutely, it doesn’t always translate but doing so as a 20 year old rookie, looking at the comparables, it usually does. Valid point on the non-primary points.
OK, first injury call-up – sure, that is much different to me than stating he needs a full second year in the AHL (which may be the case) which is what I inferred your position was.
Sure. Everyone here knows I was hot for Brett Connolly, and at $3.5M x 4 I think he’d be full value – and more – over the life of the contract. I wasn’t interested in Dzingel back when the talk was 5 x $5M, but at his actual value of $3.375M x 2 (or something close) I’d sooner have him than Chiasson any day.
Nobody’s talking about “long term, big money contracts” though – just players that have a track record of actually moving the needle at the NHL level rather than tweeners and Europeans who don’t. I’d rather Holland signed 3-4 decent UFA’s than 6 depth guys.
Yes the team isn’t much better, but I don’t see anything Holland could have done better than he has, although on balance I would have kept Sekera.
He is totally handcuffed by PC this year. And he’s done as well as he can without taking a massive gamble or making a massive overpay that would cost us dearly in future years.
If we’d just fired PC last summer when it was very clear he should have been fired last summer we would at least have:
– a solid 3C that can play wing (Strome)
– 3m more cap space (no Manning, Koskinen signed for what he’s worth)
– some more 2019 picks from trading Caggiula and Chiasson (and Kassian) at the deadline when a non insane GM would have realised we were out of the playoffs. Call that 3 x 3rd rounders?
But none of the signings you’re talking about, except Chiasson, are using any cap space!
Holland has only used (some) cap space on Smith, Khaira and Chiasson.
Which top-6 difference maker would you have signed? Whoever that is I bet Holland was in on him but drew a line at a certain point that he deemed overpayment.
Seems Connolly would have been at least 4×4 to sign here. The agent quite clearly got Edmonton in to make a bid and then got it matched by a more attractive destination.
If Granlund is in our top six.. it’ worse than i thought.
He is a fouth liner at best and was not resigned by Vancouver for a reason.
After looking at Arizona’s cap situation which is odd as they always used to be a cap floor team .. they are tight to the cap so I can see why they didn’t re-up Arch.
After looking at some highlight’s of Arch I’m ok with this signing for the bottom six and really think he is the one player that provides competition.
This is still not even close to a playoff team until they make a trade for a quality third line center or scoring winger.
I’ll say again.. we need a goaltending miracle for any hope this season.
So you’re agreeing with me: the team is no better than last year.
“On paper you may be right”
“There are no obvious additions that make the team better.”
“There is also no way we can predict what the chemistry will be.”
As for this: “overall team speed is better”, I’m not sure I agree. Lets look at the players from last year’s starting opening roster that aren’t with the team today:
Puljujarvi
Rattie
Rieder
Yamamoto
Strome
Caggiula
Are any of them slow? All are above average skaters IMO. But Holland elected to keep Chiasson – the only returning UFA – who is not.
“We have players brought on board that should improve the PK.” Will the PK be better? None of the acquisitions are accomplished PKers, certainly none are considered better than Rieder was last summer. Strome turned out to be pretty good on the PK, too.
“With new coaching and player utilization the power play will be better.” I sure hope Tippett helps the PP, but isn’t an assistant coach responsible for special teams? Is that guy still here? Anyhow, I don’t see how better player utilization will change anything – it’ll be the same 5 guys on PP1 as last year.
I think you’re looking at an empty glass and pretending it’s half full. In some places that would be called “delusional”.
The scenes with the bear are quite disturbing. Very much like this place.
“Its like people are forgetting…”
The opposite is true.
No, no it is not. The Bottom Six (and, well, the team aside from McDavid – although that’s due to the League forgetting about Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins) wasn’t a mockery of the League (and here, for that matter) for no reason, after all.
$9M worth of sub-replacement level signings later, there’s a stark lack of cap space. Who knew?
The opposite is true.
Ha ha. That’s a pretty low bar.
Benson had quite the season last year. A bit of a surprise. Now we are filled with hope that his injuries the past few seasons had temporarily masked his excellent talent that was shown at an early age. In Bantam AAA he got 146 pts in 33 games. That was a pts/60 of – lot’s.
Benson played on a line with Cooper Marody most of the season and both did extremely well. And both were rookies.
In the bits and pieces that I watched this season I thought that Marody was the driver on the line. The puck carrier. The Kuznetzov. Marody had the better offensive season. 1.10 pts/game to Bensons .97.
I got to thinking, I wonder if Marody zoomed Benson a little?
Marody was recalled and demoted 3 times last season missing 8 games while up with the Oilers.
In those 8 Games how did Benson do? Did he maintain his .97 pt/game pace?
He got 4 points.
But.
Marody was injured in the playoffs by Kessy who was dressed with that intent.
He missed 6 games
How did Benson do? Thankfully he got 5 points in those 6 games. 3 in that crazy come from behind 7-6 OT win.
The regular season results without Marody are a little concerning but the playoff results reassure.
Maybe nothing to see here. I’ll post it anyways.
Non-binary thinking like this is why the public education system – and a Harvard (or LBS!) MBA – teaches things other than STEM…
As the line up stands today you may be right. Which should concern everyone not named Reja.
Love your optimism Brother Reja, but I just don’t see where the goals are going to come from when McDavid’s line isn’t on the ice.
Poor Nuge is back to climbing Everest every night with not a second line NHL winger in sight. … That is of course until we’re two goals down in the second period and Tippet is forced to load up the Nuge – Connor – Leon trio out of desperation for offence which then leaves us with three fourth lines.
I’ll grant that Holland may have made some minor improvements in the ranks of the depth forwards but the line up as is, is still short a 3C and a scoring winger. And, no one is going to convince me that our defence is better today then it would be with a healthy Sekera.
I’m with Armchair – as is, this is not a lineup that makes the second season. Here’s hoping Holland has something up his sleeve.
It’s these types of sensible, logical and well thought out arguments that go a long way toward ruining my experience as a 21st century Oilers fan.
Apropos of nothing in particular. If SwedishPoster invites you to a midsummer (Midsommar) family gathering in rural Sweden, you probably shouldn’t go. And whatever you do, don’t take your girlfriend.
Well, one reason would be that he is TWENTY ONE years old, not 18 like the others you listed in comparison.
Everyone keeps bringing up Rantanen as a comparison for JP, but why not for Benson? Mikko went to the AHL for one year after draft, had a PPG that season as a 19 year old. Played for the big club as a 20 year old IN THE TOP 6 and has never looked back. Benson is one year behind that mainly due to injury, but it could be the same track. A successful (PPG) year in the AHL then ready for top 6 as a 20-21 year old, not an 18 year old.
Benson was as highly touted before he ran into injury trouble. Not saying it’s a guarantee, but each case has to be judged on its own. The worst thing we can do is start blindly making judgements on where and when to play someone purely to go “Opposite George” of the Old Boys Club
So you’re saying there’s progress?
You’re right. What could go wrong with placing a 20 year old kid in our top 6 straight from camp? That’s never turned badly before right? I’m sure he would learn more in the NHL, just like Puljujarvi, Yakupov, Yamamoto, Paajarvi, Gagner did before him. If it ain’t broke, etc.
Serious question. Which UFA would you have signed that you see staying here for a cup run? Without creating future cap problems?
Bottom line is Holland has to wait for some of the contracts to fall off the books before he can commit to any long term, big money contacts. Given the circumstances, I think short term, small money deals are the only way to go.
I would humbly disagree. On paper you may be right but you don’t win on paper. The overall team speed is better. We have players brought on board that should improve the PK. With new coaching and player utilization the power play will be better. The additional team speed should create more power plays. There are no obvious additions that make the team better. There is also no way we can predict what the chemistry will be.
I will choose the glass half full rather than proclaim the sky is falling and see the glass as half empty.
razor,
I don’t really understand the logic of letting Benson play another 30 games in the A to start the season. Is he really going to pick up anything in those 30 games that he didn’t learn in a full AHL season?
Is he not at the point where he would learn more by being around McDavid/Drai/Nuge?
Benson will be one of the top 12 forwards in camp, period. Game 1 matters as much as game 31 and game 82. Take your best players with you, and if they falter there is always the option to send him back down.
Cooper Marody is in the same boat for me. PPG in the AHL means you get a real top 9 shot.
PPG in the AHL doesn’t always translate into top 6 NHL. I think he also had a lot of secondary assists on a good line. Holland likes to marinate his prospects and Benson is still young. Also this is just opening night. I could see him being the first recall option when injuries hit (which will happen fast – Oilers)
I got it from Natural Stat Trick.
Looking at their glossary, the “i” means individual and not independent like I thought. Not sure if that would be different but sorry about that if it is.
The glossary doesn’t say anything about their methodology.
OriginalPouzar,
It’s like people are forgetting how putrid the bottom six was last season.
I like Holland’s approach so far.
The late Jason Botchford call the Canucks bottom 6 “a sea of Granlunds” .
Apparently that is now the Oilers bottom 9.
He didn’t trade RNH, Nurse +/- the 8OV pick for Reinhart
You may be right but what makes you posit that Benson needs another year? That was a pretty successful season for a true rookie in his 20 year old season.
OHL vs. AHL makes no difference to a contract sliding. I used to think a contract couldn’t slide in the AHL but that’s not true. If the contract is eligible for slide, the only factor is 10 NHL games played.
Its not so much what he did do but what he didn’t do.
He didn’t commit any cap to marginal players – Just the Sekera buyout penalty and clearly he wasn’t able to move out $3M plus worth of cap without an asset price he wasn’t willing to pay (showing an unwillingness to divest of future for immediate improvement).
He could have added an extra year or an extra million here or there to get a Nyquist or a Connolly but that would have precluded us from being in the conversation for a better player next year and the ability to take advantage of cap-strapped teams next year/the year after.
He has created a depth of forwards that should allow Benson/Marody to not be rushed if they need a bit more time. If they prove ready, they’ll get their chance but there should be cover.
He hasn’t bled assets and he’s kept powder dry for the next year. He wasn’t in the position to take advantage of the Leafs, the Knights, the Lightning, the Rangers this off-season but, because of not overpaying this year on a guy like Johansson, there should be opportunity for a better scoop or scoops in the next year or two.
You’ve made excellent points regarding the acquisitions. Holland has brought in a lot of players that have resume to help, much better than we’ve seen in years, and if they don’t they go back to Europe or don’t hit the cap.
Every player in the Oiler’s org now has to consider this summer as critical. The Condors were also potentially short in a big way on forwards that could get something done if promotions worked out.
Seems like an experienced GM doing good things given the situation to me. Far from perfect, far from the foot shooters previously.