We’re going to see some interesting battles in Oilers camp this fall, and some of the youngsters could break through but get sent to Bakersfield until trades can be made in order to make room.
One of the worries fans rightly have now surrounds making sure quality players don’t fall through the cracks. There are so many good defensemen who are prospects, can Dave Tippett gauge the group in what will be a three-week window?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!
- New Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
- New Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
- Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
- Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
- Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2019-20 Oilers might look like without trade missteps.
- Lowetide: Finding the best candidates for the final two spots on the Oilers skill lines in 2019-20.
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
- Lowetide: Does the James Neal acquisition impact Oilers’ prospects in 2019-20?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Potential free-agent options for the Oilers in 2020
- Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
- Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
- Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
- Lowetide: Will the 2019-20 Bakersfield Condors be the Oilers’ best minor-league team ever?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
No. 3 LHD
This will be the marquee battle in camp, with several quality options available. Oscar Klefbom and Darnell Nurse will occupy the top two spots, with options all day for Dave Tippett on the third pair.
Kris Russell and Brandon Manning represent the veterans who are in the conversation, both men known for shutdown skills during their respective careers. Russell played almost 400 minutes against elites last season, a No. 3 assignment probably cuts that total in half and allows Russell to (possibly) mentor some of the young RH blue.
Caleb Jones and William Lagesson are either NHL-ready or close enough for jazz, but there’s no room at the inn. Make no mistake, all indicators (saw him good, even-strength goal differential, coach’s comments) are top dead center. This is a case where the two men may not be applying for the same job (Jones likely second pair, Lagesson third) but their trains arrived at the same time. The kicker? Dmitri Samorukov is coming off an impact junior season and his train could flatten some of the good young quality ahead of him.
SCORING WINGERS
We talked about this briefly yesterday, but this thing is impossible. We have three big pieces to a six-piece puzzle (97, 29 and 93) and the Oilers may have added another in James Neal.
After that we’re in a land where logic and reason can’t help us very much. My RE’s are based on Bill James’ “established level of ability” and I usually run three seasons to get a read and then add or subtract based on age and projected usage. Connor McDavid is fairly easy to project. My RE estimate a year ago (82, 50-70-120 1.46 points-per-game) was pretty close to his actual performance (78, 41-75-116 1.49 points-per-game) and I will tell you my RE projection for him in 2019-20 is 50 goals again.
People are worried about Leon Draisaitl’s regression, but the RE process likes his consistency. He plays the entire season, has scored 29, 25 and 50 goals in his last three years and turns 24 in October. I can estimate his goals between 34 and 40 with some confidence.
What about James Neal? I have him at 16 goals. Nuge? 22. After that? It’s damned near impossible. Zack Kassian and Alex Chiasson are strong candidates to regress, and I don’t believe Markus Granlund is about to score 19 again. Sam Gagner’s RE is 14 and that might be the closest to James Neal any of these cats get in 2019-20.
NO. 3 CENTER
Gaetan Haas has a solid reputation among Oilers’ brass and that’s going to be enough to get him a full audition. If he ends up being a fourth line or worse option, Edmonton’s roster can offer Jujhar Khaira, Kyle Brodziak and Colby Cave as options. I wrote about the waiver wire for The Athletic today, suspect that option could come into play. I’m a believer in Khaira, don’t know if he can cover the ask but he would be my top option.
NO. 2 RHD
This has a chance to be the most provocative story in camp. Coach Tippett has expressed a preference for Kris Russell playing LH side, which is different than saying it’s a sure thing.
Adam Larsson is the No. 1 man, with Matt Benning normally slotted on the third pair. I would like to see Benning move up to the second pair, but suspect this battle will be a three-way race between Joel Persson, Evan Bouchard and Ethan Bear. My RE has Persson winning the competition and opening the season with the Oilers.
The forward lines would look a lot better if Benson is ready. Benson-Nuge-Neal would hopefully be faster than having a Chiasson on the line. If you can add Boyle or Brassard on a short term deal it would also improve the 3rd line. Some combination of Chiasson Brassard/Boyle and Archibald/Granlund on the 3rd line would be pretty respectable. While a fourth line of whichever of Granlund/ Archibald isn’t on the 3rd line Khaira and Gagner would be able to add some offense.
I would posit that scoring in the last few games of pre season would be a better indicator than overall scoring as those points would come playing against NHLers mostly.
Your comment on Khaira is not well thought out in my opinion. The coaches used Khaira in many different roles and even up the lineup on the wing. He was never given more than five or six games at a time at centre. It just so happens his size, skating etc were more valuable to the team other places.
“Wary” is the word you’re looking for, I believe. 😉
This is precisely why I was hoping that they would get an impact forward with the #8 pick last June. Too bad Cozens didn’t last until then…
I don’t disagree about the potential impact of our forwards, however, we have two elite forwards that can do what you describe and we simply need to fill them with secondary players that can impact the game in a positive way.
You are right, Maksimov may very well not be an NHL player and I’ve acknowledged that – at the same time, if he does “make it” to the NHL, he has a skill that the Oilers haven’t had for a long time – an elite shot with an elite release and its something that could lead to 30G.
It may not happen with Krill, it may not happen with Benson, it may not happen with Lavoie, it may not happen with McLeod, etc., etc., but my guess is a couple will end up legit secondary offensive producers on a line with a driver – we have two high end drivers for the next 6-7 years.
Will have to agree with this entire post.
Maksimov did indeed take massive steps this past season. Even as his goal scoring rates went down in the 2nd half of the season – he accepted a slightly different role after the trade deadline, more of a 2-way, responsible, higher PK minutes game – and excelled.
Apparently that was an incorrect use of the word “weary”.
I am very hesitant to pencil Persson in to the top 4 given we aren’t even sure he is an NHL player at even strength.
As per coach, Khaira is in the converation for 3C as well – its a stretch given he hasn’t even been able to handle 4C to this point but, well, so are Haas and Marody.
and?
NHLE fails when the player in question possesses a close to fatal flaw for NHL success.
I’m looking for someone who can drive play, carry the puck through the neutral zone , and control the puck in the ozone.
I don’t think any of the Oilers prospect forwards will do this at the NHL level. Maybe some will, but it’s not obvious to me.
I think you are being pretty optimistic about Maksimov. It’s probably about 50/50 he even becomes an NHL player, let alone 30 goal scorer
Benson looks like he will make it, maybe even as a top 6 forward, but he doesn’t seem to have the legs to really become an impact player.
You don’t think Drai is a “bona fide scorer”?
Haven’t verified but Lehto interview on MTV Sports (via google translate): is it possible he’ll play for the Oilers next season? “Better not to speculate on it”
————
So you are saying there is a chance?
Too many 40 point scorers! Haha
I don’t think NHLE numbers are inflated per se, but they definitely aren’t terribly predictable for individual players in individual situations.
They’re based on players who’ve successfully made the jump from one league to another (so in that sense they are inflated because they only include the successes). The other issue is that there’s a huge range of outcomes (basically the error bars are large) so NHLE is a good guide about a players skill level but not so good as a predictor of what will happen this season.
NHLE does suggest Marody is a very good prospect but it’s not a good enough predictor (IMO) to think he’s a lock for anything.
His relative numbers are up but it’s driven by a dip from other posters. OP/60 is unchanged. Seems that GJ/60 is down lately, potentially even slumping.
This pretty much exactly describes Maksimov in his draft year too. He’s put a lot of work into the defensive side of the game and his consistency and still has some distance to go before playing effective minutes in the NHL. I’d be very happy if Lavoie made the team after just one more year in the Q plus one year in the A. Ideally Maksimov lands in the NHL in 20-21 and Lavoie in 21-22.
There is no one size fits all, but the common theme is that all of these kids need development. There are various methods of development, but sticking an 18-year-old in the NHL is not an option except for the very elite. None of our prospects are considered “very elite”. Also, it’s generally accepted (by that I mean Holland thinks) that going directly from junior league to the NHL at any age only makes sense for exceptional players, and usually only happens for players of pedigree.
It’s an unlikely route for Maksimov or Lavoie.
If you’re tired of it, why not just stop?
An OP% of 30?
Also, NHLE is supposed to be equivalent scoring. If Marody has a 40+ expected scoring rate as LT suggests, shouldn’t he be a lock, or do we have too many 40 point scorers? The alternative is that NHLE numbers are inflated and need to be adjusted.
If the Oilers don’t acquire a 3C then it’s down to Hass and Marody but I think they sign Brassard on the cheap or get one in a Jesse plus trade. I been calling it since Bakersfield season ended Benson will make the club and it would not surprise me one bit if Bouchard makes it as well.
I don’t think anyone is afraid to play the young players just because they are young.
I don’t give a shit what the age of a player is as long as he is getting the job done.
Far too many times in recent years rookies have been injected into the line up (for lack of a better option) and it’s been to the detriment of both the team and the prospect
Glovjuice,
+100%
Smith will help Kosh with the pressure of the NHL he’s not shy to speak his peace. My favourite position is goaltending and I love flexible goaltenders Tretiak Plamateer Hasek etc I’ve never seen a goalie more flexible for his size than Kosh. If Smith and Kosh can feed of each other it’s Playoff time.
OriginalPouzar,
Nilsson is an interesting comparable to follow, stats/pedigree/age/career wise.
He has taken a couple years to hit his stride but seems to have carved out a bit role, if not as the headliner.
I get you but it’s been so long since we hit on later picks we shouldn’t be gun shy if we hit a couple of mini jackpots for a change. We are so overdue and I think it’s time we get flooded with cheap NHLers say what you want about Pete he left the farm system in the best shape it’s ever been. Kudos to riverboat Pete.
OP has contributed 30 % of the posts on LT’s blog today so far. This must be a record.
Lavoie and somewhat McLeod or I believe that certain player who’s game translates better to the NHL I guess will find out in 2-3 years.
The league has changed & the Oil should have a couple of kids on cheap contracts. Kids like Benson,Jones & Marody all of whom have spent time in the AHL.
Which is my point on not rushing Lavoie or Maksimov.
I don’t think you’re arguing my original point
From accounts, he’s am extremely hard worker, I don’t suggest he was ever ill-prepared – not very good, but not ill-prepared. I’m not actually concerned about his “glove hand”, I think that’s over-blown – I’m concerned about his positioning and angles – he often looks non-square to the shooter and pucks squeak in from bad angle and in weird spots. One would think it was the ice size but he got worse as the year wore on, I found. Maybe fatigue played a role in that but it was more than that.
I do expect him to be better this coming season – more consistent.
OriginalPouzar,
My sense, gleaned by eye and reading reports, is that Koskinen flagged toward the end of the season more due to fatigue than being ill prepared.
I’m not sure Jesse taking shots on Koskinen before or after most practices hurt Koskinen – seems like, if anything, it would have helped his adjustment that took all year (and actually got worse at the year went on in some respects – his angles were worse than his glove hand down the stretch).
Yes, the Oilers are going to cheap youngsters on the ELCs or cheap second contract to contribute – value contracts.
They have not had that since the implementation of the cap and its even more important now with them being so top heavy in cap.
At the same time, the players have to be ready and, from everything I’ve seen (and others seems to have seen) a guy like Lavoie is nowhere near ready. Makismov may prove to be ready but its a bit of a wildcard.
Guys like Benson, Jones, Lagesson on their ELCs should help this year – Bouchard and maybe Sammy next year (maybe even later this year).
If Benson produces 45 points as 2LW – that’s a value contract even if he isn’t setting himself up for $8.5M on his second contract.
Putting Lavoie in the lineup, even for 9 games, would be akin to what they did with Yamamoto in his draft plus 1 and just hinders the ability to have the player develop during his ELC and provide that value contract.
Shit, Lavoie doesn’t even have an NHL contract and likely won’t be inked until the spring.
Yes, they were two of the tops in juniors where Persson, Jones, Lagesson were having very strong years in pro leagues.
Tippet getting the asylum under control will make the biggest difference this season, driven by Holland bringing more suitable players to what is actually needed.
I don’t think most teams do much different than they ever have. Good teams find good players minor and pro.
The real change comes from the league, CBAs and litigation. The cap has driven a lot , and that blatant obstruction is being called morish, and law suits around brain injury has caused the most difference.
Little to do with young players being so much better. The other changes have driven what a successful prospect looks like.
His performance at the showcase, that I saw (which is in line with what you saw) also reflects his game in the Q (that I saw – about 5 games).
A couple high skill, get you off your seat, plays per game but not noticeable or impacting the play from shift to shift.
He’s nowhere close to ready for the NHL.
As had been pointed out to you many times, including in direct response the the substance of the above, to the extent they are “poor without the puck” and give up “lots of odd man breaks against”, for which we’ve seen no evidence, they must be sensational offensively because their offence dwarfs what they give up – both in terms of possession, shot share, goals percentage, expected goals percentage, high danger shot share, etc.
They score more than they give up (and the back-up metrics for it show the play going more towards the opposition net.
The team wins the ice when they are paired together – I think a coach would appreciate that, no?
Lavoie isn’t even a lock for the Canadian World Junior team – he was high skill be is extremely inconsistent from shift to shift – he only is really noticeable a couple of shifts a game (from a couple games I watched at the Showcase and about 5 Halifax games – all the same). I think he’s at least two full seasons away from the NHL unless he really improves in the Q this season.
Maksimov is a darkhorse/longshot and would be miles ahead of Lavoie in my opinion – he offensive game, his defensive game, his physical game, his work ethic, etc. – all miles ahead of Lavoie.
I’m bullish on all three as well Neal gets a heavy push 20-30 goals Larsson returns to his old self. I’m most bullish on my main man Kosh first shot Talbot is long gone psychologically it’s huge when your behind the eight ball 3 minutes into every second game. Kosh and Smith will not let this happen especially with Tippett’s system. Kosh will also get mentored by Smith and be able to concentrate more on his job now that he doesn’t have to babysit Jesse.
The league has changed every team has a few kids in the lineup. The reason because they’re cheap why do you think these 22-23 are signing these huge contracts.
Tippett will ice the team that gives himself the best chance to win (in his mind) every night – I’m sure.
That may well have the likes of Jones, Persson, Lagesson and/or Bouchard playing over Russell on any given night, however, I don’t think he’ll deploy them that way in the name of commitment to the youngsters.
There will be plenty of ice and games to see each of them if they’ve earned it.
NHL teams use 10 plus d-men in a year.
If one or two of the kids pass Russ, they’ll play ahead of Russ.
I’m not sure the mandate will have anything to do with this.
Tippett is going to try and win every night in any event and will deploy his 23 man roster in a manner that he feels gives the team the best chance to win each and every night. If that’s Drai/McDavid together in his mind, he’ll play them together. If he feels they have a better chance of winning on a given night with them apart, he’ll play them apart.
Not sure Katz’s desire to make the playoffs has any effect at this point.
If anything, Katz’s “mandate” would have had more of an effect on Holland but Holland was true to his verbal all summer long – he will not make moves the harm the ability to build in the near term for immediate improvement this year
Yup – agree with this.
I’m very comfortable with him playing for Skellefteå this year – he dominated the Hilnka last year the Showcase this year – time to play pro.
Minutes will be lower for sure but Howson mentioned they’ve spoken with Skellefteå and the opportunity will be there for him to play solid minutes. It will be up the player to grab the opportunity and work his way up the depth chart.
He’ll have some struggles but I’m hoping for top 4 minutes by year end.
Worked just fine for OEL, Karlsson, Klingberg and many others.
Maksimov and Lavoie both have NHL size and neither have a language barrier/culture shock problem. We can hope that both Maksimov and Lavoie will be handled more along the Holland method and not thrown into the deep end of the pool to see if they can swim. Each player is different with different needs. There is no one size fits all development method. There is no fixed time limit as in baking time for a cake. Each individual has to be put in a position where they can succeed.
We’ve had this conversation but we can continue.
I don’t necessarily disagree with you about Russel starting at 7D and, yes, the 7th d-man will play many games. With that said, I just don’t see Tippett doing it on October 2. Not unless Russell is majorly behind the two rookies.
I’m also VERY weary of “pencilling” Persson in to 2RD. I’m excited to see this player and have fairly high hopes. I’m confident his PP skills will translate but he needs to prove to be able to handle 3rd pairing even strength shifts before being contemplated for tougher minutes. He may not be an NHL players.
Given Benning’s success, year over year, with the incumbent top 4 d-men, I can’t see why he wouldn’t be pencilled in to 2RD – he’s had much success there and he’s had much success with the likes of Klefbom (who plays well with Benning).
Its got to be the plan, in my opinion.
Revolved,
Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
Gagner-Nuge-Neal
Granlund-3C signing-Chiasson
Nygard-Khaira-Archibald
Jurco-Cave
Nurse-Larsson
Klefbom-Benning
Russell-Persson
Manning
Koskinen
Smith
I’ll change my mind next time I type the lineup though!
Each pairing needs a covering D, as in Larsson, Lagesson etc. These are specific types to fill specific needs. As for coaching that’s what Manson’s finishing school is for. When the guy is ready send him up.
What do you consider “impact forward” and were you speaking about just this season or in general – I believe its the latter given your use of “in the pipeline”.
If Maksimov ends up becoming an NHL player and finds a spot on McDavid or Drai’s wing using his shot to score 30 in a few years – is that not an impact player even if he’s a secondary player on the line?
If Benson pops a bit and puts up 65 points as 2LW in a few years, is that not an “impact player” even though he’s “riding the coattails of Drai (presumably)?
I don’t seem an “impact forwards” popping this year, however, if Marody is able to win a 3C job on merit and play 14 5 on 5 minutes a game with Granlund and Archibal – pop 35 points and provide positive minutes – that would definitely be impactful to the roster and the team.
If Benson can earn 2LW on merit and put up 45-50 points with Nuge (or Drai) – that impacts the team in a very material way.
I posted a few days ago that in minutes as a pair Klefbom-Benning allowed fewer GA/60 than any regular Oilers D did overall (IIRC). The exception was Benning who allowed less than Klefbom-Benning, but that would include lots of 3rd pair minutes.
I wonder if Staples mistakes on scoring chances might reflect what you’re seeing with Benning? There’s literally nothing tangible I can find that supports your POV.
I’m open to having my mind changed on Benning but it will take more than “I (you) remember them giving up lots of odd man rushes”. Help me out here.