Final Additions

I don’t recall an offseason that left this much business so late into summer. There are like 30 rfa’s to sign (Jesse Puljujarvi is one) and there are several attractive UFA’s. Edmonton doesn’t have much money left, but there’s room for a depth signing. Who are the candidates?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, here’s an incredible Offer!

  • New Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
  • Lowetide: Revisiting the Oilers’ 2016 draft and the opportunities missed
  • Lowetide: Examining the potential waiver-wire opportunities at hand for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Cooper Marody’s utility gives him an edge for an Oilers roster spot in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s roster construction options for the Oilers over the next seven months.
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto has the talent to win a job with the Oilers on merit, if he’s healthy.
  • Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi still has upside and the Oilers’ patient approach is the right one
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
  • Lowetide: Handicapping the Oilers’ young defencemen and their chances of replacing Andrej Sekera
  • Lowetide: Is Kirill Maksimov progressing as the Edmonton Oilers’ next great hope for a true homegrown sniper?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers ease pressure on crowded defensive pipeline by trading John Marino to the Penguins
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
  • Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
  • Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
  • Jonathan Willis: Which Oilers defencemen can make an outlet pass?
  • Lowetide: Looking ahead to Oilers training camp: 35 players for 23 jobs
  • Jonathan Willis: Josh Archibald won’t fix the Oilers’ biggest problems, but he’ll help with some key issues.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

THE CANDIDATES

This is goals-per-60 and points-per-60 at five-on-five

Tomas Vanek 1.02 2.21

Jason Pominville 1.08 2.01

Brock McGinn 0.45 1.35

Patrick Marleau 0.58 1.16

Patrick Maroon 0.54 1.08

Riley Sheahan 0.46 1.05

Brian Boyle 0.83 1.02

Magnus Paajarvi 0.53 1.00

Derick Brassard 0.61 0.94

Edmonton needs help at centre, so Brassard, Boyle and Sheahan would be likely targets. I don’t know how many PTO’s the Oilers will sign, and it could be a straight one-year deal. Among wingers, Vanek might be a solid power-play addition.

The Oilers do have some internal solutions on the wing. Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody could push for jobs and realistically it would be tough for management to send either back if they find chem with established players.

If we use 30 points NHLE as the line in the sand, then Marody, Benson, Gambardella, Nygard and Kirill Maksimov are the options. I don’t think Maksimov makes the grade (Holland will likely slow play him), so the four remaining are your pool of possibles. What about something like this?

Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian

Tyler Benson—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—James Neal

Markus Granlund—Derick Brassard—Josh Archibald

Alex Chiasson—Jujhar Khaira—Sam Gagner

I don’t think it will go that way (Neal and Chiasson are the safe second-line wingers) but if you are Dave Tippett and Benson (or Marody) show well, it’s an option that has to be contemplated.

HAYDEN HAWKEY

College goalie is now free to sign, and his resume is strong. Oilers gave up an asset to acquire an asset, and then set it free. Management changes leave orphans all over hell’s half acre.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A busy morning, TSN1260 beginning at 10. DTonSC joins us at 10:20 to preview the CFL weekend, DraftKings Sports Book Director Johnny Avillo pops in later and we’ll talk Jays as well. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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104 Responses to "Final Additions"

  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    One would think Sheehan would be an option as he’d be cheap and would compete with Haas, Khaira, Marody for the 3C. Fully buryable contract or PTO?

    Brassard, oubviously, but if he’s still looking for material AAV or term then an Oiler commitment cannot be made. Cheap contract under $2M (without term) or PTO?

    Magnus would have been a solid option for a 4th line/PK role but I think there are enough options and cover.

    Maroon, well, maybe, if he’s willing to come cheap – sure, he had his playoff moments recently but, recall, he was poor in the regular season and even healthy scratched. We remember him better as an Oiler but the player does not help team speed and any material AAV or term would be a risk.

    I’ve always liked Vanek and the guy can still shoot and score but I remember reading about how sheltered he needs to be at evens – is that an option?

  2. Coiler says:

    The only candidate from that list really appeals to me would be Marleau but I doubt he’d come. I think the Oilers are at a crossroads of sorts. They have a few ‘potentials’ and a few ‘unknowns’. Aside from the obvious there seem to be a few spots open so I’d say let the kids play it out on the ice and see what they can prove. The odd PTO may come along a la Chaisson who may surprise us.

    I think the team should keep whatever cap space they have for the future. Even the slightest amount can be invaluable.

  3. Zack says:

    Would it be worth re-visiting Maroon?

    If he could find his chemistry with McDavid again he could add some top 6 depth and some grit.

    Maroon – McDavid – Kassian
    Draisaitl – Nuge – Neal

    Draisaitl – McDavid – Kassian
    Maroon – Nuge – Neal

    Orrrr

    Maroon – McDavid – Nuge
    Neal – Draisaitl – Kassian

    Nuge could even drop to Line 3 at Center if needed. How is Kassian still our “top RW”??

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m excited to see follow Konovalov and see if he can build on that sensational rookie KHL season last year.

    He could be the best of the bunch!

  5. godot10 says:

    Keep the cap room for an opportunistic trade, rather than blow it on the remaining free agents, none of whom will make a difference.

    Any additional UFA signing MUST not cost more than $1 million for one year.

  6. jtblack says:

    LT, OP et al.

    would you ice the best team possible by signing a vet or do you mail in the season and give some kids an at bat? or do you meet in the middle?

    IMO this is a “lost” season. Tippett will lay the foundation and Holland will assess team needs Connor will win Art Ross 😉

  7. Pescador says:

    After reading yesterday’s thread (which was awesome btw! thx to all who contributed)
    I was up all night burying my guns & my gold in the back yard.
    The fallout shelter is fully stocked with preserves, gasoline and pot seeds.
    I’m ready for the impending Apocalypse, come at me China!

  8. Pescador says:

    godot10:
    Keep the cap room for an opportunistic trade, rather than blow it on the remaining free agents, none of whom will make a difference.

    Any additional UFA signing MUST not cost more than $1 million for one year.

    I fully endorse this plan/scheme
    However, I would have been quite pleased to see Connelly sign here for $3.5M x 3 or whatever he got.
    The lack of top 6 forwards on the roster is glaring, yet again

  9. Andy Dufresne says:

    Tippet will play to win on a game by game basis, as he always has.
    Tippet will play vets over rookies imo.
    Tippet will concentrate on systems play and defensive responsibility (which always favors veterans)

    Holland wants speed in the bottom six; complementary scoring in the middle six, and 20 goal scorers in the top six.

    Holland will not push the coach to play rookies up the lineup. Marody and Benson WILL NOT play top six in the first half of the season. imo.

    The only real question at the forward position at this point is, which of Granlund, Nygard, Gagner, can elevate his game enough to potentially surpass Chaisson in the top 6. That opportunity will present itself given the streaky nature of Chaissons offense.

    The real question / curiosty lies on defense. Which of and how many of Persson, Lagesson, and Jones are on the NHL roster to start the season.

    If the Oilers add via PTO, it will be at 3C ( Some combination of speed, faceoff abilty, and scoring) At $2m or less,you dont get alot of scoring so face off ability and speed.

    If the Oilers make a trade it will be for a 2RHD (not likely though) or, JP+ for a 3C.

    I think we have this thing surrounded. We are going to win by playing Tippetts systems, playing agressive, defensivley responsible hockey. We are going to win by reducing goals against considerably.

    Anything more will come at the trade dealine or the summer of 2020.

    NONE of this bodes well for JP.

  10. defmn says:

    godot10:
    Keep the cap room for an opportunistic trade, rather than blow it on the remaining free agents, none of whom will make a difference.

    Any additional UFA signing MUST not cost more than $1 million for one year.

    I find myself agreeing with almost all of your posts. Should I be worried about that? 😉

  11. Darth Tu says:

    godot10:
    Keep the cap room for an opportunistic trade, rather than blow it on the remaining free agents, none of whom will make a difference.

    Any additional UFA signing MUST not cost more than $1 million for one year.

    Agreed – we have our old man goal scoring winger in James Neil. No need to chase Vanek or Pomminville.

    I’m hopeful for much better play this year than last, but also completely aware that this is a build year. I don’t think we’re making the playoffs but will be happy if things are heading in the right direction. Please, some more scoring outside of Connor and Drai, and something (anything!) from the blue line.

    OP has been banging the drum about how we’re going to have more cap space at the end of next year once a few more contracts burn off too, once that Russell contract (for example) is off the books we have a bit more flexibility moving forward.

  12. Andy Dufresne says:

    Zack:
    Would it be worth re-visiting Maroon?

    If he could find his chemistry with McDavid again he could add some top 6 depth and some grit.

    Maroon – McDavid – Kassian
    Draisaitl – Nuge – Neal

    Draisaitl – McDavid – Kassian
    Maroon – Nuge – Neal

    Orrrr

    Maroon – McDavid – Nuge
    Neal – Draisaitl – Kassian

    Nuge could even drop to Line 3 at Center if needed.How is Kassian still our “top RW”??

    Given our cap situation, our prospect pool strength (or lack there of) Kassian is not just a good fit on the top line, but a nealry perfect fit.

    By as early as next year, this probably will not be the case.

  13. Bling says:

    godot10:
    Keep the cap room for an opportunistic trade, rather than blow it on the remaining free agents, none of whom will make a difference.

    Any additional UFA signing MUST not cost more than $1 million for one year.

    I agree with this.

    Marody’s 42 point NHL E shines like a diamond. Him, Khaira and Haas ought to be given an opportunity at 3C. My bet is on Marody winning the day.

    Haas as 4C and Khaira on the wing. Rotate the extra forwards in to keep everyone sharp.

  14. JJS says:

    Kassian just doesn’t have the chops to play first line wing with any level of consistency

    Neal will be there to start the season

    For better or for worse, I think Yamamoto will again show well in camp and get another push

    Is he ready for the top 2 lines? Doubtful. But he will get another chance this year

  15. That.Guy says:

    Brett Connolly…. People want to give Double Chiasson money (or More!) for Chiasson boxcars. Enough and thank goodness he wasn’t signed by the Oilers. *smh*

  16. Bling says:

    I don’t buy this financial apocalypse nonsense. There will always be another recession around the corner.

    People who took haircuts of 30 percent, 40 percent on their portfolios in 2008 who kept their money in the market made it all back and then some. People of my generation who started investing during the credit crisis have done well.

    Environmental disaster is a legit concern, but the leadership or sense of responsibility from the boomer generation political class just isn’t there.

  17. Andy Dufresne says:

    In Calgary, Rasmus Andersson and Oscar Kylington, two 22 year old late second round picks form a capable third pair for the Flames.

    Where, in Edmonton, any two of 2 of Jones, Lagesson, Bear and Persson cannot. I guess thats the difference a couple of rounds makes in the draft. ( late second rounders vs 4th rounders)

    If we apply that same logic,, then early first rounders Bouchard and Broberg should be that much better than Andersson / Kylington when they reach age 21 or 22.

    #futureisbright

    #2021 ..?
    or
    #2022 ..?

  18. anjinsan says:

    As a lifelong Oiler fan, I find it numbing that as great a positive influence as Connor McDavid has been, Chiarelli was an equally great negative influence. If Connor asks out, Chiarelli will prove to have been even greater because the reputation effect will be Pronger’s * 5.

  19. geowal says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’ve always liked Vanek and the guy can still shoot and score but I remember reading about how sheltered he needs to be at evens – is that an option?

    Much like Darth Tu said, Neal makes Vanek redundant, we don’t want to have to shelter too many scorers. Just a flat no. One of the centres, sure maybe.

  20. Jordan says:

    So… LT wants to know what I think about Hall coming back to the Oilers.

    What do I think about Hall coming back to the Oilers?!

    If this happens… I will cry tears of joy.

    I really don’t care what else happens after that.

    Don’t care if we don’t have a goalie.

    Don’t care what they sign Nurse for.

    Don’t care who we lose in the expansion draft (but would hope we only sign Hall to a 1 year deal and then re-sign him after the draft so we don’t have to protect him)

    Bringing Hall back to play with Nuge, Connor and Leon would be… Blues Brothers awesome.

    Put the band back together Kenny. You’re on a mission from Gord.

  21. Munny says:

    Pescador:
    After reading yesterday’s thread (which was awesome btw! thx to all who contributed)
    I was up all night burying my guns & my gold in the back yard.
    The fallout shelter is fully stocked with preserves, gasoline and pot seeds.
    I’m ready for the impending Apocalypse, come at me China!

    Ha!!

  22. Jordan says:

    Bling,

    To be fair, you don’t have to buy any kind of apocalypse.

    But that doesn’t mean you and everyone else won’t have to pay for it.

  23. ArmchairGM says:

    If we didn’t already have 16 bottom-6 candidates I’d strongly consider Pominville and Sheahan on 1-year, $1M contracts.

  24. JJS says:

    anjinsan:
    As a lifelong Oiler fan, I find it numbing that as great a positive influence as Connor McDavid has been, Chiarelli was an equally great negative influence.If Connor asks out, Chiarelli will prove to have been even greater because the reputation effect will be Pronger’s * 5.

    It won’t happen

    Connor was drafted by the team, is still very young, is highly professional/loyal, has a long term contract and appears committed to bringing success to the Oilers

    Pronger was traded in his late prime, had a mid length contract, had already been on multiple teams, and had no loyalty to the team or fan-base. He had leverage and attitude which he used to his advantage.

    But your initial comments are valid – we have witnessed the collision of two opposing forces!!

  25. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Benson-Marody-XXXXX

    Has got to be the 3rd line by season’s end, I imagine. Neal?

  26. ArmchairGM says:

    Zack:
    Would it be worth re-visiting Maroon?

    If he could find his chemistry with McDavid again he could add some top 6 depth and some grit.

    Maroon – McDavid – Kassian
    Draisaitl – Nuge – Neal

    Draisaitl – McDavid – Kassian
    Maroon – Nuge – Neal

    Orrrr

    Maroon – McDavid – Nuge
    Neal – Draisaitl – Kassian

    Nuge could even drop to Line 3 at Center if needed.How is Kassian still our “top RW”??

    That’s an interesting thought. It’s a low risk, high reward scenario.

  27. Seismic Source says:

    Oh my.

  28. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Any additional UFA signing MUST not cost more than $1 million for one year.

    I’ll go along with this.

  29. ArmchairGM says:

    That.Guy:
    Brett Connolly…. People want to give Double Chiasson money (or More!) for Chiasson boxcars. Enough and thank goodness he wasn’t signed by the Oilers. *smh*

    I expect more for LT posters.

  30. ArmchairGM says:

    Bling: I don’t buy this financial apocalypse nonsense. There will always be another recession around the corner.

    The next crash will be the last one. Book it.

  31. ArmchairGM says:

    Jordan: Don’t care who we lose in the expansion draft (but would hope we only sign Hall to a 1 year deal and then re-sign him after the draft so we don’t have to protect him)

    Nuge and Larsson are already in that camp, no need to do the same with Hall.

  32. Seismic Source says:

    Bling,

    Bling,

    It’s way worse. We never recovered from the last recession. We made a larger bubble out of debt and Monopoly money. How long does a fiat currency last in the history of mankind? We are at our ropes end. The crash has started and this time it will be the 4 horseman of economics. SuperInflation is opportunity to those prepared and the end of times to those who are not.

    I’ll be logging out now. I’m glad I started the discussion. Sports is propaganda designed to avert attention. When the news gets crazier and crazier, keep your head up.

  33. Andy Dufresne says:

    ArmchairGM: The next crash will be the last one. Book it.

    This is the case for almost everyone who experiences it.

    #flyquantis

  34. jp says:

    I’d welcome any of Brassard, Sheehan or Boyle (hopefully under $1.5M) considering the Oilers current 3/4C options. All are either 1) unproven 2) proven wanting or 3) not regular Cs.

    I think Maroon could still help too. And even needing sheltering, Vanek can clearly still score 5on5 as well as on the PP.

    Also, Oskar Lindberg is still unsigned, no? Was looking the other day and he hadn’t signed with any European team, so presumably he’s still looking for an NHL deal.

  35. Andy Dufresne says:

    Seismic Source:
    Bling,

    Bling,

    It’s way worse. We never recovered from the last recession. We made a larger bubble out of debt and Monopoly money. How long does a fiat currency last in the history of mankind? We are at our ropes end. The crash has started and this time it will be the 4 horseman of economics. SuperInflation is opportunity to those prepared and the end of times to those who are not.

    I’ll be logging out now. I’m glad I started the discussion. Sports is propaganda designed to avert attention. When the news gets crazier and crazier, keep your head up.

    Aloow me to bring it to a diginfied close by referencing Rudyard Kipling:

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too;
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
    Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
    And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:

    If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
    If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
    If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
    And treat those two impostors just the same;
    If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
    Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
    Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
    And stoop and build ’em up with worn-out tools:

    If you can make one heap of all your winnings
    And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
    And lose, and start again at your beginnings
    And never breathe a word about your loss;
    If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
    To serve your turn long after they are gone,
    And so hold on when there is nothing in you
    Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

    If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
    Or walk with Kings—nor lose the common touch,
    If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
    If all men count with you, but none too much;
    If you can fill the unforgiving minute
    With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
    Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
    And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son!

  36. Darth Tu says:

    Andy Dufresne: Thats true in almost every case.

    #flyquantis

    It’s true 60% of the time, every time.

    #sexpanther

  37. jp says:

    Pescador:
    The lack of top 6 forwards on the roster is glaring, yet again

    You know it’s not that far off.

    Last year the #93 NHL forward scored 52 points and #186 scored 33.

    Do the Oilers have 6 forwards who will score 33 points this year?

    I’m taking the optimistic view obviously, but the big 3 should be shoe-ins. Kassian should clear that easily if he sticks with McDavid-Drai. Then 2 of Neal, Chiasson or Gagner (or Benson).

    I wouldn’t bet against it. The bottom 6 was as much the problem last year as the top 6.

  38. rickithebear says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    In Calgary,Rasmus Andersson and Oscar Kylington, two 22 year old late second round picks form a capable third pair for the Flames.

    Where, in Edmonton, any two of 2 of Jones, Lagesson, Bear and Persson cannot. I guess thats the difference a couple of rounds makes in the draft. ( late second rounders vs 4th rounders)

    If we apply that same logic,, then early first rounders Bouchard and Broberg should be that much better than Andersson / Kylington when they reach age 21 or 22.

    #futureisbright

    #2021 ..?
    or
    #2022..?

    As a guy who had the common sense to look at what championship roster structure repeated itself for 25 years.

    And made that his cup core roster theory:

    Killington and R. Andersson are a continuation of Calgary’s yearly bottom 5 open sh Defence.

    A top 10 open sh save% goalie and their top collection of goal production forwards should get them in playoffs 1 every 2 years.

    But non top GA teams rarely make it out of Round 1.
    Their are 23 teams (74%) that do not win a playoff round each year.
    27 (87%) teams do not compete in a series for a championship.
    29 teams (94%) are losing orgs. Not winning a championship!

  39. jp says:

    Zack:

    How is Kassian still our “top RW”??

    What’s the issue with Kassian? He scored at something like a 25G 45PT pace for half a season. He appears to be exactly what Maroon was.

    I’d still welcome Maroon back, but I have no issue with Kassian in the spot where he had success last year.

  40. rickithebear says:

    Since the lockout:
    18 teams have won a championship.

    A little test for you guys!
    What 13 teams have not
    and
    how many yrs has it been since their last championship.
    IE. how long have they been a losing org.
    Expansion teams can only go back to when they started.

  41. powerploy says:

    No more signings, training camp tryout offers though

    Nygard-MCD-Kas
    Chia-Drai-Neal
    Granlund-Nuge-gagner
    Kaira-Haas-Archibld
    Cave/Gamberdella spares

    Klef-Larson
    Nurse-benning
    russel-Person/jones
    Lagesson

    P/K
    Granlund-Hass
    Nygard-Nuge/granlund

  42. duct tape and foil says:

    Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
    Tyler Benson—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—James Neal
    Markus Granlund—Derick Brassard—Josh Archibald
    Alex Chiasson—Jujhar Khaira—Sam Gagner

    Our host has thrown out a very solid lineup – might make a small tweak on the 4th line though:

    Jujhar Khaira – Sam Gagner – Alex Chiasson

    Get’s the wingers on their natural sides and you might get an unexpected amount of goals from those guys against weak opposition. Sam has played a lot of center…not that well….but it is 4th line and he should be able to handle that.

  43. Oilman99 says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    In Calgary,Rasmus Andersson and Oscar Kylington, two 22 year old late second round picks form a capable third pair for the Flames.

    Where, in Edmonton, any two of 2 of Jones, Lagesson, Bear and Persson cannot. I guess thats the difference a couple of rounds makes in the draft. ( late second rounders vs 4th rounders)

    If we apply that same logic,, then early first rounders Bouchard and Broberg should be that much better than Andersson / Kylington when they reach age 21 or 22.

    #futureisbright

    #2021 ..?
    or
    #2022..?

    At this stage, there is no evidence that some combination of those four d-men cannot be a viable 3-D pairing. Jones is already there, so that leaves room for other guy to step up. Lagesson could be ready, and Persson’s stats indicate he may be able to set right in and be effective. Bear may surprise people this fall, as he has something to prove after a so so season last year.

  44. rickithebear says:

    Bling:
    Their are 99 recognized repetative green house affect modellers
    They have a current standard that only inputs .3 % of Suns obsorbed energy.
    They put in a negative value during peak solars flare cycles.

    NASA and ESA asked the modellers to adjust to a multi variable approach and apply 100% of the Sun energy obsorbed by the planet.

    They did for about 3 weeks.
    2 of the 99 ran the model with the new data.
    They did not publish the results.

    How ever the 5 yr standard was modified to say you can just use past data sets.
    A noted climatologist ran one of the models with 100% of obsorbed energy.

    The human carbon footprint was almost zero.

    The largest footprint factor was the discontinuation of summer fallow ( animal grazing rotation) practice that had existed for almost 10,000 years in agricultural areas of Africa, East Europe, and Asia.
    A lot more erosion resistant green grasslands existed for entire yearly cycles in this area because of the former practise.

    Lots of Co2 needed for those grasses in large portions of earths land mass.

    A little known fact that intelligent Climatilogist and world space agencies would know.

    It is interesting that a corporation out of New Jersey has gone on a run of buying up all the Coal plants at critical Transmision line VAR node points in North America.
    The node points that prevent black outs in big cities in N.A.
    Like Sheerness.

  45. Reja says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    Tippet will play to win on a game by game basis, as he always has.
    Tippet will play vets over rookies imo.
    Tippet will concentrate on systems play and defensive responsibility (which always favors veterans)

    Holland wants speed in the bottom six; complementary scoring in the middle six, and 20 goal scorers in the top six.

    Holland will not push the coach to play rookies up the lineup. Marody and Benson WILL NOT play top six in thefirst half of the season. imo.

    The only real question at the forward position at this point is, which of Granlund, Nygard, Gagner, can elevate his game enough to potentially surpass Chaisson in the top 6. That opportunity will present itself given the streaky nature ofChaissons offense.

    The real question / curiosty lies on defense. Which of and how many of Persson, Lagesson, and Jones are on the NHL roster to start the season.

    If the Oilers add via PTO, it will be at 3C ( Some combination of speed, faceoff abilty, and scoring) At $2m or less,you dont get alot of scoring so face off ability and speed.

    If the Oilers make a trade it will be for a 2RHD (not likely though) or, JP+ for a 3C.

    I think we have this thing surrounded. We are going to win by playing Tippetts systems, playing agressive, defensivley responsible hockey. We are going to win by reducing goals against considerably.

    Anything more will come at the trade dealine or the summer of 2020.

    NONE of this bodes well for JP.

    Love it nice level headed post. There’s no Chicken Little sky is falling Debbie Downer woe is me I’m taking my ball and going home because oilers aren’t preseason favourite”s like a few years ago. If Tippet and Holland aren’t gunning for the playoffs with what they have available they should be fired immediately. Myself I’m Bullish on Benson and Bouchard I hope they make it difficult for Tippett and Holland. I can see Jesse plus a asset or roster player traded once all the rosters are shook out maybe there’ll be some RFA hold outs and Jesse’s stock will rise a little.

  46. texmex says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
    Tyler Benson—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—James Neal
    Markus Granlund—Derick Brassard—Josh Archibald
    Alex Chiasson—Jujhar Khaira—Sam Gagner

    Our host has thrown out a very solid lineup – might make a small tweak on the 4th line though:

    Jujhar Khaira – Sam Gagner – Alex Chiasson

    Get’s the wingers on their natural sides and you might get an unexpected amount of goals from those guys against weak opposition. Sam has played a lot of center…not that well….but it is 4th line and he should be able to handle that.

    That lineup would be competitive IMO and a “watchable” team. A useful 3C would go a long ways.

    It is August 15th and Brassard is without a contract and potentially looking at a PTO.

    Just 3 short years ago Ottawa traded Mika Zibanejad (now 26 yrs) and a 2018 second-round draft pick to the New York Rangers in exchange for Derick Brassard (32 yrs when the season starts) and a 2018 seventh-round pick.

    Woof.

  47. rickithebear says:

    Known mass development:

    18-20 pre core
    21-23 core
    24-27 adult mass
    28-30 core hold
    31+ decline

    Interesting how male body growth stalls at age 23.

    Yet 26 yr old veterans are nearing the end of adult mass development.

    Holland likes to let non exceptional players debut at age 23 with veteran forward depth.
    Holland signed
    UFA Archibald (26) 12 evg 1.0M Top 20 PK forward
    UFA Granlund (26) 10 evg 1.3M
    UFA Jurco (26) 42gm 7 evg .75M
    UFA Nygard (26) .925M
    UFA Haas (27) .925M DZ player
    RFA Khaira (25) 1.2M 10 evg 17-18, DZ player, top 40 PK fwd

    Our best EVG forwards are likely to be.
    Draisaitl #2 RW 31 evg, #6 ppg forward
    Mcdavid #2C 31 evg, Top 40 ppg fwd
    RNH 19 evg #31 C, top 40 PPG forward
    Neal #37 LW 43 evg last 3 seasons tied with Taylor Hall, Top 50 PPG fotward
    Kassian #37 RW 14 evg, DZ Player & PK forward
    Chaisson #44 RW 13 evg, Top 40 PPG forward

    So when rationally looking at the prospects versus our top 6.
    And the 6 potential bottom 6 signed by Holland.

    I ask:
    Can
    Gambardella (25)
    Currie (26)
    Benson (21)
    Unseat

    1. our top PPG and approx 8.00+ PPG/60 forwards
    Draisaitl, Mcdavid, RNH, Chaisson, Neal, Gagner

    2. The existing and UFA DZ and PK specialists
    Kassian, Khaira, Brodziak, Archibald, Haas

    3. Can they generate double digit evg.

    If there is a potential yes.

    Would you give the physically mature players first chance?
    like Holland dies
    or
    is he going to subject the physically immature 21 yr old
    With a history of injuries
    who had his first +ve but unexceptional by NHLE standard season since the draft
    To the rigors of the NHL game.

    Holland kind of likes his players to be in last year of core development and heading to adult mass.

  48. OilSlickster says:

    I wonder how many points Nurse would put up playing on McDavids left wing??

  49. Revolved says:

    jp,

    The bottom six was absolutely our biggest problem last year, though the second line was also quite poor and even McDavid was underwater the last few months of the season. Goals for % for our centres:

    McDavid – 50.7% (45.6% from Jan.1,2019)
    Nugent-Hopkins – 46.2%
    Strome – 42.9%
    Brodziak – 32.6%
    Cave – 37.5%

    Holland has focused on speed in the bottom six, which I think precludes the addition of the ageing veterans in LT’s list. Tippett should apply a stingy defensive system, and these things should help to stabilize the goals against in the bottom six. Hopefully this keeps Tippett from running McDavid into the ice and gets his GF% back above 55%

  50. Ribs says:

    OilSlickster:
    I wonder how many points Nurse would put up playing on McDavids left wing??

    Twenty. Twenty points.

  51. godot10 says:

    defmn: I find myself agreeing with almost all of your posts. Should I be worried about that?

    The new coach hasn’t triggered me yet. Eakins and McLellan didn’t make it through October.

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bling: I agree with this.

    Marody’s 42 point NHL E shines like a diamond. Him, Khaira and Haas ought to be given an opportunity at 3C. My bet is on Marody winning the day.

    Haas as 4C and Khaira on the wing. Rotate the extra forwards in to keep everyone sharp.

    Marody has to be in the conversation for 3C with Haas and Khaira (the two Tippett likes to mention) and, if he can win that job and keep it on merit, it would REALLY help the bottom six construction.

    I’m even hesitant to pencil Haas in as 4C although I do think its likely he’s on the team October 2 (Holland’s guy).

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    JJS:
    Kassian just doesn’t have the chops to play first line wing with any level of consistency

    Neal will be there to start the season

    For better or for worse, I think Yamamoto will again show well in camp and get another push

    Is he ready for the top 2 lines?Doubtful.But he will get another chance this year

    I agree on Yamamoto if by “year” you mean “season” as I don’t think he should be in the conversation until the turn of the calendar.

    He was assigned to the AHL last year because he needed AHL development time – due to injury, he didn’t really get it so, presumably, he still needs it.

    I think a solid 40 games in the AHL will do wonders for him and he’s likely to put up Marody numbers and be confident and ready to compete at the next level.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    So… LT wants to know what I think about Hall coming back to the Oilers.

    What do I think about Hall coming back to the Oilers?!

    If this happens… I will cry tears of joy.

    I really don’t care what else happens after that.

    Don’t care if we don’t have a goalie.

    Don’t care what they sign Nurse for.

    Don’t care who we lose in the expansion draft (but would hope we only sign Hall to a 1 year deal and then re-sign him after the draft so we don’t have to protect him)

    Bringing Hall back to play with Nuge, Connor and Leon would be…Blues Brothers awesome.

    Put the band back together Kenny.You’re on a mission from Gord.

    You want to pay a high acquisition cost and then pay this player $10M/season for his declining 30s -into his late 30s?

    He’d be turning 30 when that massive contract kicks in.

    Would love Taylor Hall but his next contact is a non-starter for me, unless he’s willing to re-sign for 4 years max – and then we need to figure out the cap, not to mention to cost to acquire.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    JJS: It won’t happen

    Connor was drafted by the team, is still very young, is highly professional/loyal, has a long term contract and appears committed to bringing success to the Oilers

    Pronger was traded in his late prime, had a mid length contract, had already been on multiple teams, and had no loyalty to the team or fan-base.He had leverage and attitude which he used to his advantage.

    But your initial comments are valid – we have witnessed the collision of two opposing forces!!

    I have zero concern about McDavid not finishing his current contract with the Oilers.

    Not to mention that, in the cap world, a Connor McDavid trade done properly in the next few years (with term left on that contract), likely brings the team closer to the Stanley Cup.

    I

  56. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar: I have zero concern about McDavid not finishing his current contract with the Oilers.

    Not to mention that, in the cap world, a Connor McDavid trade done properly in the next few years (with term left on that contract), likely brings the team closer to the Stanley Cup.

    I

    How so?

  57. Yeti says:

    rickithebear: A little known fact that intelligent Climatilogist and world space agencies would know.

    Another little known fact is that Mark Fistric is demonstrably an elite level climatologist.

  58. jp says:

    Revolved:
    jp,

    The bottom six was absolutely our biggest problem last year, though the second line was also quite poor and even McDavid was underwater the last few months of the season. Goals for % for our centres:

    McDavid – 50.7% (45.6% from Jan.1,2019)
    Nugent-Hopkins – 46.2%
    Strome – 42.9%
    Brodziak – 32.6%
    Cave – 37.5%

    Holland has focused on speed in the bottom six, which I think precludes the addition of the ageing veterans in LT’s list. Tippett should apply a stingy defensive system, and these things should help to stabilize the goals against in the bottom six. Hopefully this keeps Tippett from running McDavid into the ice and gets his GF% back above 55%

    Yes, the 4-6 part of the Oilers top 6 was ugly, though the 1-3 part was spectacular, so scoring wise it was close to a wash I think.

    I agree the GA part is the major area for growth, but in the top 6 too. McDavid GF/GA rates by year:
    15-16 3.39 3.30 50.7%
    16-17 3.51 2.14 62.1%
    17-18 3.62 2.72 57.0%
    18-19 3.39 3.30 50.7%

    The GA is what cratered McDavid’s GF% last year (funny it’s identical to his rookie year). His line getting back to ~2.5 GA/60 would make a massive difference to this team.

    In terms of speed precluding the addition of veterans, I agree to an extent. But I feel like adding an experienced C is the exception given the lack of internal options available, foot speed be damned. Who’s going to play 3C and 4C?

    Haas – may not be an NHLer
    Marody – unproven, speed the main question mark
    Khaira – not a regular C (and very limited success in the middle at the NHL level)
    Gagner – not a regular C, and not fast
    Granlund – not a regular C
    Cave – not slow but hasn’t been able to score and likely a tweener
    Brodziak – slow and likely done

    Holland talked repeatedly about a 3C being one of the things he wanted to add this summer. I think some kind of reliable option trumps foot speed in this case. But JMO obviously.

  59. ArmchairGM says:

    Yeti: Another little known fact is that Mark Fistric is demonstrably an elite level climatologist.

    Is that verifiable through multi-variable analysis?

  60. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I have zero concern about McDavid not finishing his current contract with the Oilers.

    Not to mention that, in the cap world, a Connor McDavid trade done properly in the next few years (with term left on that contract), likely brings the team closer to the Stanley Cup.

    I

    In the cap world it’s much much more difficult to turn any McDavid return into a Stanley Cup than it was with Lindros trade for instance. What am I missing?

  61. Jordan says:

    OriginalPouzar: You want to pay a high acquisition cost and then pay this player $10M/season for his declining 30s -into his late 30s?

    He’d be turning 30 when that massive contract kicks in.

    Would love Taylor Hall but his next contact is a non-starter for me, unless he’s willing to re-sign for 4 years max – and then we need to figure out the cap, not to mention to cost to acquire.

    There are very few situation when I won’t make smart decision. I am analytical by nature, and an analyst by trade. I like facts, and useing those facts to make smart decisions that set me up for success and long-term welbeing.

    Taylor Hall is the exception. I know it’s not smart. I know there are better, younger, cheaper, more-longterm fits on the wings for the Oilers.

    Doesn’t matter.

    Taylor Hall was supposed to be drafted an Oiler, play his whole career here, and then retire an Oiler.

    We got part 1 right. Chia f****d up part 2, and for that he’s held in the same esteem as Peter Puck, the guy who created telemarketing and people who stand and won’t walk up the left side of escalators.

    Holland still has a chance to get part 3 right.

    If he brings back Hall and keeps him here through retirement I will be thrilled.

    Damn the money. Hall is an Oiler. Make it so.

  62. Rich M says:

    rickithebear:
    Since the lockout:
    18 teams have won a championship.

    A little test for you guys!
    What 13 teams have not
    and
    how many yrs has it been since their last championship.
    IE. how long have they been a losing org.
    Expansion teams can only go back to when they started.

    If you’re going since the strike year (04-05) – longest to shortest and never’s (edited):

    Toronto – 52 years (1967)
    Philthadelphia – 44 years (1975)
    NY Islanders – 36 years (83)
    Phelghms – 30 years (89)
    Oilers – 29 years (90)
    Montreal – 26 years (93)
    NY Rangers – 25 years (94)
    Dallas (nee Minnesota) – 20 years (99)
    Colorado – 18 years (01)
    New Jersey – 16 years (03)
    Tampa – 15 years (04)

    Buffalo – never (entered in 1970)
    Vancouver – never (entered in 1970)

    From the WHA: Arizona (nee Winnipeg).

    After that, you’re getting into the teams that came into the league in the 90’s.

  63. Ribs says:

    Rich M,

    Nicely done. A fascinating list! Canadian teams are looking pretty sad here.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal: Much like Darth Tu said, Neal makes Vanek redundant, we don’t want to have to shelter too many scorers. Just a flat no. One of the centres, sure maybe.

    I don’t know if I can agree that “redundant” is the right word.

    Secondary and tertiary scoring remain a concern, even if Neal does bounce back to 15-20 (or even 20–25) and while that bounce back is a reasonable bet, its far from a certainty.

    Additional scoring from the likes of Vanek would be helpful.

    At the same time, to the point, its probably unlikely that the roster can sustain another player with his “limitations”.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    SeismicSource:
    Bling,

    Bling,

    I’ll be logging out now. I’m glad I started the discussion. Sports is propaganda designed to avert attention. When the news gets crazier and crazier, keep your head up.

    Sports is, to some (many) a form of entertainment that, from them, is part of their enjoyment of life, to many a main or primary factor in the enjoyment of life. If one is not trying to “enjoy life”, what are they doing.

    Sports are one of the main factors that help me enjoy life and I don’t have them in my life to avert “real life” – they are part of my real life, a significant part.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp:
    I’d welcome any of Brassard, Sheehan or Boyle (hopefully under $1.5M) considering the Oilers current 3/4C options. All are either 1) unproven 2) proven wanting or 3) not regular Cs.

    I think Maroon could still help too. And even needing sheltering, Vanek can clearly still score 5on5 as well as on the PP.

    Also, Oskar Lindberg is still unsigned, no? Was looking the other day and he hadn’t signed with any European team, so presumably he’s still looking for an NHL deal.

    6 weeks ago Lingberg was very high on my list.

    He’s out of our current price bracket though I believe.

    Yes, I’m sure he’s coming down off whatever his original demand were but he’s in a higher tier than the others.

  67. Reja says:

    jp: What’s the issue with Kassian? He scored at something like a 25G 45PT pace for half a season. He appears to be exactly what Maroon was.

    I’d still welcome Maroon back, but I have no issue with Kassian in the spot where he had success last year.

    Mama Kass is on a contract year he’ll be going hard and my eyeballs say he’s opening up ice for Leon and Connor just as Maroon did. I’m all aboard the kass gets 20 train toot toot.

  68. OriginalPouzar says:

    powerploy:
    No more signings, training camptryout offers though

    Nygard-MCD-Kas
    Chia-Drai-Neal
    Granlund-Nuge-gagner
    Kaira-Haas-Archibld
    Cave/Gamberdella spares

    Klef-Larson
    Nurse-benning
    russel-Person/jones
    Lagesson

    P/K
    Granlund-Hass
    Nygard-Nuge/granlund

    I too believe this team can split McDavid and Drai and go with a three center set but I can’t get on board with “pencilling” Nygard in to top 6, let alone the top line. We aren’t even sure he’s an NHL player at this poitn. If the premise is “speed” to keep up with McDavid, I don’t agree as I don’t think speed is necessary – offensive IQ – timing, ability to create space, knowing how to get McDavid the puck with speed – those are the requirements.

    To me, the 3C set is more contingent on Benson being able to play left wing in the top 6.

    With that said, interesting 2nd line with both Chia and Neal on their off-wings. I would love to find a way to have Neal on the right side in the top 6 as he’s simply a better scorer from that side and it would likely make him more comfortable from the start. With Chiasson on his off-wing, that would be too shooters set up to rip home Drai passes.

  69. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: 6 weeks ago Lingberg was very high on my list.

    He’s out of our current price bracket though I believe.

    Yes, I’m sure he’s coming down off whatever his original demand were but he’s in a higher tier than the others.

    I don’t know why, he scored 20 points last season IIRC. All the prices should be plummeting as we approach camp in any case.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman: At this stage, there is no evidence that some combination of those four d-men cannot be a viable 3-D pairing. Jones is already there, so that leaves room for other guy to step up. Lagesson could be ready, and Persson’s stats indicate he may be able to set right in and be effective. Bear may surprise people this fall, as he has something to prove after a so so season last year.

    Don’t really disagree, however, until those d-men “prove it” we don’t know for sure and there is risk.

    The flames showed that running a few rookies on the 3rd pairing can work.

    To me, if we are running a two rookie pairing, I want it anchored by Lagesson.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Love it nice level headed post. There’s no Chicken Little sky is falling Debbie Downer woe is me I’m taking my ball and going home because oilers aren’t preseason favourite”s like a few years ago. If Tippet and Holland aren’t gunning for the playoffs with what they have availablethey should be fired immediately. Myself I’m Bullish on Benson and Bouchard I hope they make it difficult for Tippett and Holland. I can see Jesse plus a asset or roster player traded once all the rosters are shook out maybe there’llbe some RFAhold outs and Jesse’s stock will rise a little.

    Tippett will coach to win the game, each and every night.

    Holland has done what he thinks he can to reasonably improve the team this year in conjunction with, not making moves that will risk future improvement and also taking steps to set the team up for the future improvement.

    Tippett will do his job which is 100% to win now.

    Holland has done his job which includes both winning now but also looking to the future.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    OilSlickster:
    I wonder how many points Nurse would put up playing on McDavids left wing??

    I would predict less than playing LD.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: In the cap world it’s much much more difficult to turn any McDavid return into a Stanley Cup than it was with Lindros trade for instance. What am I missing?

    I disagree – I think its more “helpful” in the cap world given the importance of having material players on value contracts. In the current NHL, there is high end and elite scoring from ELC players – the wealth of young, cost controlled talent that should be acquirable would be massive.

  74. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I don’t see anything but bottom roster cheap hole filler UFAs being in the oilers future.

    Buying expensive decline rarely works out as we have seen. I think we’ll see trades for helpful players with some highway ahead of them and promotions.

    I also don’t see value in bringing in really one dimensional slowish offensive types. Sure the Oilers didn’t score enough, but O and D aren’t separate in reality. When the team isn’t playing the system for whatever reason attack declines and defend increases. All stats suffer.

    The biggest issues they face is weaknesses in having a RC that can be relied upon by the coach taking faceoffs and keeping head above water, and a capable partner for Nurse or Klef.

    Maybe that happens, and either internally or externally I think the balance pic would reveal.

    As Ricki is saying almost all teams are ‘unsuccessful’, it’s about getting in position for a Lloyd Christmas chance. Every season. Balance does that especially when elite players are already in place.

  75. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I disagree – I think its more “helpful” in the cap world given the importance of having material players on value contracts. In the current NHL, there is high end and elite scoring from ELC players – the wealth of young, cost controlled talent that should be acquirable would be massive.

    Except nobody has that crystal ball. When you have the world’s best player or any younger proven impact player trading them is like betting your house in Vegas and spinning the wheel.

    Taking smaller gambles on emerging players in the system that are identified as not a fit or unliked, for a player identified on another team as worthy of the risk makes sense.

  76. Professor Q says:

    Yeti: Another little known fact is that Mark Fistric is demonstrably an elite level climatologist.

    ArmchairGM: Is that verifiable through multi-variable analysis?

    These have made my day.

  77. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I disagree – I think its more “helpful” in the cap world given the importance of having material players on value contracts. In the current NHL, there is high end and elite scoring from ELC players – the wealth of young, cost controlled talent that should be acquirable would be massive.

    But what single team has this wealth of ELC talent?

    Problem two, and I think the real issue, is that the cost controlled window of that talent closes so fast now.

    Matthews makes 93% what McDavid does. Eichel makes 80%. Marner, Point, Rantanen, Laine, Tkachuk will be making in the same range very soon. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions whether those contracts are/will be value relative to McDavid’s.

    I guess it’s theoretically possible to get a 1 or 2 year window of young players in return for McDavid but it can never last. And even then I’m not sure a single team can amass enough talent in a tight enough window to make it realistic.

    I found this article pretty informative, and I’m sure it shaped my thinking on McDavid and his contract. His is basically the ultimate value deal where the best player in the game will soon be well down on the list of highest salaries. https://theathletic.com/1062436/2019/07/04/the-price-of-a-win-and-why-it-means-connor-mcdavid-wont-always-be-the-nhls-highest-paid-player/?redirected=1

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: But what single team has this wealth of ELC talent?

    Problem two, and I think the real issue, is that the cost controlled window of that talent closes so fast now.

    Matthews makes 93% what McDavid does. Eichel makes 80%. Marner, Point, Rantanen, Laine, Tkachuk will be making in the same range very soon. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions whether those contracts are/will be value relative to McDavid’s.

    I guess it’s theoretically possible to get a 1 or 2 year window of young players in return for McDavid but it can never last. And even then I’m not sure a single team can amass enough talent in a tight enough window to make it realistic.

    I found this article pretty informative, and I’m sure it shaped my thinking on McDavid and his contract. His is basically the ultimate value deal where the best player in the game will soon be well down on the list of highest salaries.https://theathletic.com/1062436/2019/07/04/the-price-of-a-win-and-why-it-means-connor-mcdavid-wont-always-be-the-nhls-highest-paid-player/?redirected=1

    I don’t disagree with alot of your post and will confess to not reading the article at the time of this reply but the GM would have to find the right team with the right set of assets.

    I don’t know, this past off-season, pre-draft:

    Mackinnon, Makar, OTT first (Girard, Jost options as well)

  79. Oz says:

    Bling:
    I don’t buy this financial apocalypse nonsense. There will always be another recession around the corner.

    People who took haircuts of 30 percent, 40 percent on their portfolios in 2008 who kept their money in the market made it all back and then some. People of my generation who started investing during the credit crisis have done well.

    Environmental disaster is a legit concern, but the leadership or sense of responsibility from the boomer generation political class just isn’t there.

    I am of the boomer generation and you are correct, we have blown the environment in the chase of ROI, but so have have prior generations, and I suspect yours will also, if history repeats itself. Having said that I wish and support your efforts to turn the tide for the sake of my grand children.

  80. Glovjuice says:

    jp: But what single team has this wealth of ELC talent?

    Problem two, and I think the real issue, is that the cost controlled window of that talent closes so fast now.

    Matthews makes 93% what McDavid does. Eichel makes 80%. Marner, Point, Rantanen, Laine, Tkachuk will be making in the same range very soon. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions whether those contracts are/will be value relative to McDavid’s.

    I guess it’s theoretically possible to get a 1 or 2 year window of young players in return for McDavid but it can never last. And even then I’m not sure a single team can amass enough talent in a tight enough window to make it realistic.

    I found this article pretty informative, and I’m sure it shaped my thinking on McDavid and his contract. His is basically the ultimate value deal where the best player in the game will soon be well down on the list of highest salaries.https://theathletic.com/1062436/2019/07/04/the-price-of-a-win-and-why-it-means-connor-mcdavid-wont-always-be-the-nhls-highest-paid-player/?redirected=1

    Sure, always is a long time (well, duh, always; LOL, typical athletic writing). Anyways, I actually think it will be a while (7 years at least) till someone is above 12.5. Who will be above 12.5 anytime soon? Noone can think of.

  81. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: I don’t disagree with alot of your post and will confess to not reading the article at the time of this reply but the GM would have to find the right team with the right set of assets.

    I don’t know, this past off-season, pre-draft:

    Mackinnon, Makar, OTT first (Girard, Jost options as well)

    I was going to ask you for an example that was plausible and that’s pretty good. It requires MacKinnon being on an extreme value 2nd deal, but it is possible.

    That said, I still think it was much easier to pull something like this off pre cap. The value of high end ELC players has been amplified BECAUSE of the cap every bit as much as because these young players are better than they were 20 yrs ago.

    I think a superstar return HAS to be largely ELC players and picks in the cap era. Before that it mattered far less if part of the return was a 25 or 26 year old so long as the team wasn’t cash poor.

  82. jp says:

    Glovjuice: Sure, always is a long time (well, duh, always; LOL, typical athletic writing). Anyways, I actually think it will be a while (7 years at least) till someone is above 12.5.Who will be above 12.5 anytime soon? Noone can think of.

    There’s no chance it takes 7 yrs for someone to top $12.5M. I don’t know who it will be either, but did you think Panarin, Matthews and Karlsson would be within $1M of McDavid right now?

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I was going to ask you for an example that was plausible and that’s pretty good. It requires MacKinnon being on an extreme value 2nd deal, but it is possible.

    That said, I still think it was much easier to pull something like this off pre cap. The value of high end ELC players has been amplified BECAUSE of the cap every bit as much as because these young players are better than they were 20 yrs ago.

    I think a superstar return HAS to be largely ELC players and picks in the cap era. Before that it mattered far less if part of the return was a 25 or 26 year old so long as the team wasn’t cash poor.

    Pre-cap that type of deal wouldn’t have the same type of value due to not requiring value contracts.

    Not to mention, the Oilers wouldn’t be in the position they have been the last few years as they are largely due to cap restraints. They have Katz, willing to spend, the terrible Lucic and other deals would have very little effect as they could have bought other players – they could/would have been in play for all sorts of top tier free agents and, if a few missed, oh well, just Katz’s money, get get another.

  84. Glovjuice says:

    jp: There’s no chance it takes 7 yrs for someone to top $12.5M. I don’t know who it will be either, but did you think Panarin, Matthews and Karlsson would be within $1M of McDavid right now?

    They are all singed for a long time so it won’t be them. Who will it be. I can’t think of anyone. McKinnon, Hall, the RFAs this year. Kucherov (not in Tampa). Crosby on a few year deal maybe. All the big fish are signed for a while. Seriously, take a stab at a few. Bet you can’t do it other than Crosby.

  85. Bling says:

    rickithebear:
    Bling:
    Their are 99 recognized repetativegreen house affect modellers
    They have a current standard that only inputs .3 % of Suns obsorbed energy.
    They put in a negative value during peak solars flare cycles.

    NASA and ESA asked the modellers to adjust to a multi variable approach and apply 100% of the Sun energy obsorbed by the planet.

    They did for about 3 weeks.
    2 of the 99 ran the model with the new data.
    They did not publish the results.

    How ever the 5 yr standard was modified to say you can just use past data sets.
    A noted climatologist ran one of the models with 100% of obsorbed energy.

    The human carbon footprint was almost zero.

    The largest footprint factor was the discontinuation of summer fallow ( animal grazing rotation) practice that had existed for almost 10,000 years in agricultural areas of Africa, East Europe, and Asia.
    A lot more erosion resistant green grasslands existed for entire yearly cycles in this area because of the former practise.

    Lots of Co2 needed for those grasses in large portions of earths land mass.

    A little known fact that intelligent Climatilogist and world space agencies would know.

    It is interesting that a corporation out of New Jersey has gone on a run of buying up all the Coal plants at critical Transmision line VAR node points in North America.
    The node points that prevent black outs in big cities in N.A.
    Like Sheerness.

    I’m not sure which specific models you are referring to, but a major report put out by the UN suggests that climate disaster is a distinct possibility, amongst a range of several, all of which depend on our collective ability to reduce the rate at which the temperature is currently rising.

    https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/reports.shtml

    My background is not in climate science. I am deferring to experts.

    It seems to me that losing coastal cities to rising sea levels, rendering large swaths of the planet uninhabitable, and losing entire ecosystems is a big deal. The link above discusses increased wildfires and food shortages as other grave consequences.

    If you are 30 or younger, this will affect you in your lifetime.

    If you are 30-50, this will affect your children. If you are 50 plus, your grandchildren will be affected.

    The extent to which politicians, business people, and most ordinary citizens simply don’t care is astonishing.

    If you can’t have a cottage in the Okanagan or a fancy car or you miss a couple vacations over your lifetime…who cares?

    I find it comical that people laid down their lives in the world wars for future generations, and that today the spoiled, entitled people who benefited from that sacrifice can’t be bothered to budge an inch on the inconsequential, wasteful luxuries that are ruining the planet.

  86. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: Pre-cap that type of deal wouldn’t have the same type of value due to not requiring value contracts.

    Not to mention, the Oilers wouldn’t be in the position they have been the last few years as they are largely due to cap restraints.They have Katz, willing to spend, the terrible Lucic and other deals would have very little effect as they could have bought other players – they could/would have been in play for all sorts of top tier free agents and, if a few missed, oh well, just Katz’s money, get get another.

    I think we’ll have to agree to disagree here. I also have no idea what Katz has to do with the earlier discussion.

  87. JimmyV1965 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Tippett will coach to win the game, each and every night.

    Holland has done what he thinks he can to reasonably improve the team this year in conjunction with, not making moves that will risk future improvement and also taking steps to set the team up for the future improvement.

    Tippett will do his job which is 100% to win now.

    Holland has done his job which includes both winning now but also looking to the future.

    Holland hasn’t done anything to win now. I like the Lucic trade, but adding Neal maybe improves the team slightly. The only way this team improves from last year is if the rookies come in and make a big difference. This is unlikely. And none of the rookies were acquired by Holland.

  88. jp says:

    Glovjuice: They are all singed for a long time so it won’t be them. Who will it be. I can’t think of anyone. McKinnon, Hall, the RFAs this year. Kucherov (not in Tampa). Crosby on a few year deal maybe.All the big fish are signed for a while. Seriously, take a stab at a few. Bet you can’t do it other than Crosby.

    If someone had asked you a year ago what Panarin, Matthews and Karlsson would be making (cap hit) in 2019-20 would you have said $11.5M+?

    Who could possibly top these guys? Gaudreau? Barkov? Marner? Point? 7 years is a long time. I’d be shocked if it took more than 2 or 3 years for someone to sign a deal north of $12.5.

  89. Reja says:

    jp: There’s no chance it takes 7 yrs for someone to top $12.5M. I don’t know who it will be either, but did you think Panarin, Matthews and Karlsson would be within $1M of McDavid right now?

    Can’t see it happening soon whose going to be the Ballsy GM to pay his player more then the best player on the planet.

  90. JimmyV1965 says:

    Oz: I am of the boomer generation and you are correct, we have blown the environment in the chase of ROI, but so have have prior generations, and I suspect yours will also, if history repeats itself. Having said that I wish and support your efforts to turn the tide for the sake of my grand children.

    I’m not sure how we have blown the environment. We are much better stewards of the environment than anytime in history. At least nations in the wealthy west. Maybe not so much in poorer nations.

  91. JimmyV1965 says:

    Bling: I’m not sure which specific models you are referring to, but a major report put out by the UN suggests that climate disaster is a distinct possibility, amongst a range of several, all of which depend on our collective ability to reduce the rate at which the temperature is currently rising.

    https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/reports.shtml

    My background is not in climate science. I am deferring to experts.

    It seems to me that losing coastal cities to rising sea levels, rendering large swaths of the planet uninhabitable, and losing entire ecosystems is a big deal. The link above discusses increased wildfires and food shortages as other grave consequences.

    If you are 30 or younger, this will affect you in your lifetime.

    If you are 30-50, this will affect your children. If you are 50 plus, your grandchildren will be affected.

    The extent to which politicians, business people, and most ordinary citizens simply don’t care is astonishing.

    If you can’t have a cottage in the Okanagan or a fancy car or you miss a couple vacations over your lifetime…who cares?

    I find it comical that people laid down their lives in the world wars for future generations, and that today the spoiled, entitled people who benefited from that sacrifice can’t be bothered to budge an inch on the inconsequential, wasteful luxuries that are ruining the planet.

    Interesting you mention rising sea levels and losing coastal cities. Do you know how much land has eroded in an island nation like Tuvalu over the last 50 years?

  92. jp says:

    Reja: Can’t see it happening soon whose going to be the Ballsy GM to pay his player more then the best player on the planet.

    It took some real balls to make Panarin (18th in scoring with a career high 87 points) the 2nd highest paid player on the planet. I don’t think it will take long to go up another $850k but I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

  93. Glovjuice says:

    Reja: Can’t see it happening soon whose going to be the Ballsy GM to pay his player more then the best player on the planet.

    Precisely. A GM is not paying more than McDavid for a while. We will see of course but it will be longer than most think. He’s the best player since Crosby, Mario, and Wayne.

  94. jp says:

    Glovjuice: Precisely. A GM is not paying more than McDavid for a while. We will see of course but it will be longer than most think. He’s the best player since Crosby, Mario, and Wayne.

    I agree it might take a “while” (like a couple more seasons). But you just said “7 years at least”. There’s no way it takes that long for someone else to sign for $12.5M.

  95. rickithebear says:

    Bling:

    What heats the earth.

    How good is a model that say the heat is a single variable.
    UV that is .3 percent of ray spectrums that hit the earth.
    When sun is at peak energy cycle (Solar Flaring) UV is 0 so which creates a negative value in standard Nature vs non natural analysis.
    The sun is zero so it must be man.

    Current internationally accepted modelists:
    Think the sun does not heat the earth.
    Based on the affects assigned.

    Current tera formative physical analysis is best described in Minkovich Cycle.
    Change in eccentric angle cycle over 100,000 to 40,000 years

    But current Climate Forcing modeling and data sees a half cycle between 10,900 too 12,900 years.
    The greater forces of the natural climate forcing model is dependent on all solar data.
    Earth gets hot.
    Then the earth cools.

    In more cycles than Tera deposition data.
    The deposition is an avg of the smaller glacial cycles.

    Not at minkoviches 100,000 to 40,000 year cycles
    But climate forced oscillating cycles.

    Climate forcing experts say we are at peak heat energy from sun.
    It is highly complex looks at known micro variant cycles in weather and Tera formed data.

    Not a moment in time looks of current climate modellers.

    You see a lot of simple climate modellers post studies that tell us the Ice will melt in x years.
    Usually less than a century!

    The publication of these reports follow a known seasonal micro cycle.
    They come out at peak hot point of micro cycle.
    Nothing during the time through the cycle.
    Then another doom and gloom group of reports at peak heat point of known micro cycle.

    It is a brilliant dissertation by a climate forcing modelists that shows what morons current simple climate modelists are.

    I really was worried about my children’s future.
    Re: Climate

    Until a guy at work showed we were at high point of 10,900 year glacial cycle.
    That the peak micro cycling points we were seeing was causing mass degradation of internals critical transformers in the seperate unit yards.
    Transformer oil analysis program paid off.

    He suggested we have a shared spare transformer program with same transformer competitors.

    We had spares at sheerness.
    I saw spares cycle out quickly over a 5 year period.
    No need in last 2 years.

    Peak of the peak of the peak.

    The report on simple climate modelists reports was fucking funny.

    Peak Hot – Boo
    Cycling through nothing, nothing, nothing
    Peak Hot – Boo
    Cycling thru: nothing, nothing, nothing
    Peak hot – Boo

  96. Glovjuice says:

    rickithebear:
    Bling:

    What heats the earth.

    How good is a model that say the heat is a single variable.
    UV that is .3 percent of ray spectrums that hit the earth.
    When sun is at peak energy cycle (Solar Flaring) UV is 0 so which creates a negative value in standard Nature vs non natural analysis.
    The sun is zero so it must be man.

    Current internationally accepted modelists:
    Think the sun does not heat the earth.
    Based on the affects assigned.

    Current tera formative physical analysis is best described in Minkovich Cycle.
    Change in eccentric angle cycle over 100,000 to 40,000 years

    But current Climate Forcing modeling and data sees a half cycle between 10,900 too 12,900 years.
    The greater forces of the natural climate forcing model is dependent on all solar data.
    Earth gets hot.
    Then the earth cools.

    In more cycles than Tera deposition data.
    The deposition is an avg of the smaller glacial cycles.

    Not at minkoviches 100,000 to 40,000 year cycles
    But climate forced oscillating cycles.

    Climate forcing experts say we are at peak heat energy from sun.
    It is highly complex looks at known micro variant cycles in weather and Tera formed data.

    Not a moment in time looks of current climate modellers.

    You see a lot of simple climate modellers post studies that tell us the Ice will melt in x years.
    Usually less than a century!

    The publication of these reports follow a known seasonal micro cycle.
    They come out at peak hot point of micro cycle.
    Nothing during the time through the cycle.
    Then another doom and gloom group of reports at peak heat point of known micro cycle.

    It is a brilliant dissertation by a climate forcing modelists that shows what morons current simple climate modelists are.

    I really was worried about my children’s future.
    Re: Climate

    Until a guy at work showed we were at high point of 10,900 year glacial cycle.
    That the peak micro cycling points we were seeing was causing mass degradation of internals critical transformers in the seperate unit yards.
    Transformer oil analysis program paid off.

    He suggested we have a shared spare transformer program with same transformer competitors.

    We had spares at sheerness.
    I saw spares cycle out quickly over a 5 year period.
    No need in last 2 years.

    Peak of the peak of the peak.

    The report on simple climate modelists reports was fucking funny.

    Peak Hot – Boo
    Cycling through nothing, nothing, nothing
    Peak Hot – Boo
    Cycling thru: nothing, nothing, nothing
    Peak hot – Boo

    Presumably we are headed for another ice age or mini ice age so is this what you are saying?

  97. russ99 says:

    JimmyV1965: Holland hasn’t done anything to win now. I like the Lucic trade, but adding Neal maybe improves the team slightly. The only way this team improves from last year is if the rookies come in and make a big difference. This is unlikely. And none of the rookies were acquired by Holland.

    Sure he has, added a decent goalie option in case Koskinen falls off the map, and changed our bottom six from prospects and Chia’s 94’s (when has a GM ever picked players by birthdates instead of talent before?) who can’t play repeatable NHL-quality shifts with inexpensive players on short contracts who can play repeatable NHL quality shifts in a Tippett-style system, some of which can add secondary scoring.

    Not sexy goal scoring options, but things that help NHL teams win games.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice: They are all singed for a long time so it won’t be them. Who will it be. I can’t think of anyone. McKinnon, Hall, the RFAs this year. Kucherov (not in Tampa). Crosby on a few year deal maybe.All the big fish are signed for a while. Seriously, take a stab at a few. Bet you can’t do it other than Crosby.

    Seth Jones

  99. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I think we’ll have to agree to disagree here. I also have no idea what Katz has to do with the earlier discussion.

    In a pre-cap world, there is no salary cap limitation so a rich owner willing to spend is a huge asset. We are hundcuffed by the salary cap, however, if it was pre-cap, oh well, we can just buy more assets – we don’t have to try and dispose of assets at a loss in order to purchase new ones.

    Milan Lucic and Kris Russell taking up $10M wouldn’t matter – we could have been in the game for Panarin and Karlsson for example even with those other two under contract.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV: Holland hasn’t done anything to win now. I like the Lucic trade, but adding Neal maybe improves the team slightly. The only way this team improves from last year is if the rookies come in and make a big difference. This is unlikely. And none of the rookies were acquired by Holland.

    I’ll have to disagree.

    In my opinion he’s made numerous little improvements that should, in aggregate, move the team forward – nope, not massive improvements but incremental improvements for the current team while concurrently making moves (and avoiding non-moves) to set the team up for more material improvements over the next two years.

    The plan is clear and, so far, is on course.

  101. Glovjuice says:

    OriginalPouzar: Seth Jones

    He will not be the highest paid player in the NHL – no chance. But , we wait if course

  102. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: In a pre-cap world, there is no salary cap limitation so a rich owner willing to spend is a huge asset. We are hundcuffed by the salary cap, however, if it was pre-cap, oh well, we can just buy more assets – we don’t have to try and dispose of assets at a loss in order to purchase new ones.

    Milan Lucic and Kris Russell taking up $10M wouldn’t matter – we could have been in the game for Panarin and Karlsson for example even with those other two under contract.

    I don’t understand how not being constrained by the cap devalues McDavid, the best player in the game. I seriously don’t comprehend the connection to Lucic and Russell here.

    I’m arguing that in a cap world a team can’t afford to pay (at least beyond a very narrow window) a “fair” return for McDavid. Pre cap it was more possible that a team could pay, and keep intact for a number of years, the multiple good players they’d get for trading a player like McDavid.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I don’t understand how not being constrained by the cap devalues McDavid, the best player in the game.I seriously don’t comprehend the connection to Lucic and Russell here.

    I’m arguing that in a cap world a team can’t afford to pay (at least beyond a very narrow window) a “fair” return for McDavid. Pre cap it was more possible that a team could pay, and keep intact for a number of years, the multiple good players they’d get for trading a player like McDavid.

    The talk about Katz and Lucic/Russell was secondary part of the conversation when we/I mentioned that we wouldn’t be in this situation in the pre-cap world (likely) – the struggles and limitations on building due to salary cap reasons. We’d be able to continue to acquire assets to make the team better notwithstanding previous mistakes (like Lucic) that prohibit/limit improvements. Due to that, the team likely wouldn’t be struggling and have to improve incremental and there wouldn’t be talk about McDavid may asking out.

  104. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar: The talk about Katz and Lucic/Russell was secondary part of the conversation when we/I mentioned that we wouldn’t be in this situation in the pre-cap world (likely) – the struggles and limitations on building due to salary cap reasons. We’d be able to continue to acquire assets to make the team better notwithstanding previous mistakes (like Lucic) that prohibit/limit improvements.Due to that, the team likely wouldn’t be struggling and have to improve incremental and there wouldn’t be talk about McDavid may asking out.

    Alright, thanks for the explanation. And yes, for sure the Oilers would likely be in a better spot without a salary cap considering Katz is willing to spend his money (though the Katz Oilers certainly wouldn’t be the only team spending more without cap constraints).

    To the original point – would it be easier to build a cup winner following a McDavid trade now or pre cap? Effectively, can you win a McDavid trade? I still think that’s much harder to do in a cap league. In any case, hopefully the team can improve despite themselves so we never need to test the theory.

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