I’ve been thinking about Kailer Yamamoto. Suspect we all agree he has a tough road ahead during training camp and preseason compared to other hopefuls. Since Edmonton kept him on the roster twice, and he scored one goal in 26 games over those two seasons, and had a wrist injury and didn’t light the world on fire, many observers believe Yamamoto will spend the season in Bakersfield.
Makes sense. Until you look at the pro depth chart.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of the group, take advantage of the incredible Labor Day Weekend offer here!
- New Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
- Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
- Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s measured summer leaves Oilers outside playoffs.
- Jonathan Willis: Can Mikko Koskinen be a quality starter for Oilers in 2019-20?
- Lowetide: The 2019-20 Oilers and value contracts: A period of transition
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Jonathan Willis: Jesse Puljujarvi signs one-year deal in Finland, dashing hopes he would return to the Oilers
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft joins Claude Julien and Todd Nelson as key coaches in Oilers prospect development
- Lowetide: Is Riley Sheahan an ideal fit for the Oilers as their No. 3 centre?
- Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Oilers end summer still shy on first-shot scoring wingers
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid and optimal line chemistry: The Oilers need to abandon enforcer fixation and add a skill winger
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s biggest hurdles: Bad timing and the indifference of the Oilers.
- Lowetide: Projecting the Oilers 2019-20 Opening Night Lineup
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Dave Tippett on rounding out his coaching staff, fixing Oilers’ special teams and using Connor McDavid
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What the 2021-22 Oilers might look like after their steady build toward contender status
- Lowetide: Joel Persson is ideally situated to win an opening night roster spot with the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Projecting the Oilers’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more.
- Lowetide: Oilers’ acquisition of James Neal could add badly needed scoring to the top two lines.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ken Holland puts his stamp on the Oilers with first big move in Lucic-Neal trade
- Jonathan Willis: Ken Holland ends an ugly situation for the Oilers by trading Milan Lucic for James Neal
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
If we’re honest, the verbal during an offseason is heavily influenced by the most recent campaign. For specific prospects, that means the conversation can vary wildly. Who is Edmonton’s most consistent prospect? Has any forward delivered back-to-back 30+ NHLE seasons?
Cooper Marody: 33.0; 42.3
Tyler Benson: 28.3; 37.2
Joe Gambardella: 14.6; 36.8
Patrick Russell: 15.2; 30.1
Josh Currie: 26.0; 29.7
Kailer Yamamoto: 38.0; 25.6
Kirill Maksimov: 26.0; 25.2
Ryan McLeod: 25.8; 24.7
Raphael Lavoie: 18.6; 23.6
Ostap Safin 19.1; 14.7
Based on the last two seasons, and age, Marody plus Benson and Yamamoto are the most consistent forwards. Gambardella is a personal favourite, who I think owns skills this coaching staff will value, Josh Currie has forced his way into the conversation. I also think Patrick Russell brings enough interesting things (including PK acumen) to be in the conversation.
KHL
Ilya Konovalov’s Yaroslavl Lokomotiv play its first game of the KHL schedule this morning. The preview is here.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning, with NFL, U.S. Open Tennis and other news breaking. We start at 10 this morning, TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy will join us from The Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal at 10:20 and Kris Abbott from OddsShark will be by to talk mlb and NFL at 11. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
There are lots of ELC cap controlled snipers in the top ten of next years draft. That is why teams jumped on D at the draft this year. The better strategy to being lousy this year is to keep Nurse and Klefbom, and draft a high end forward next summer, than to trade for an already highly paid forward and gut the defense, which would also result in a lousy season.
I believe the doctor actually will have the “official” say, no?
Actually yes it will be one person, Connor.
The trouble is the opportunities this summer won’t be available next summer or the one after.
What about Laine? There are quite a few Twitter rumors that Chevy is talking to teams about Laine. Where does he rank vs Ehlers and Connor?
That’s what I thought, I was surprised to see him on the Oilers reserve list still. And a quick Google search indicates that your memory is correct: Washington it is.
We lost Hawkey’s rights this past August.
He is attending an NHL camp on a PTO – can’t remember which team. I think an eastern team. Washington maybe.
Rookies report today. Champions league resumes – I think both Karpat and Skelefeeta play.
We’re getting there.
Capfriendly has Hayden Hawkey on the Oilers reserve list still, with a Must Sign By date of August 15, 2020. I had thought we lost him this summer, did the eligibility extend because he’s doing another year of college?
I agree. Only trade incumbents when they’ve been superceded by the youts, don’t trade them to make room for unproven prospects. With any luck 2 of the older crew (Jones, Bear, Persson and Lagesson) will prove capable of handling 3rd pairing minutes every day, making Russell expendable next summer. I don’t see any of these guys being plus top-4 defenders, I think we have to wait for the next wave for those: Bouchard, Samorukov and Broberg. Even then, I highly doubt any of them will have proved enough by next June to trade Nurse, Klefbom or Larsson – the only possibility here is that Bouchard dominates AHL, gets 30+ NHL games and knocks Benning out of a top-4 spot.
To reiterate, even if all prospects advance well this season, the only incumbents I see being made redundant are Russell and Benning. The reason I re-posted the trade suggestion was because there are a ton of young RFA forwards who may be available this summer and very few the next. The following summer, 2021, is probably the earliest such a trade (D for forward) could be workable for the Oilers, but the pickings are slim then too.
You either strike now or you build organically, IMO. Of course, there’s always the possibility of making that deal now and the targeting a UFA next summer to replace Nurse, so you are only losing 1 year.
I agree with all of this. If Patty will sign for $1M, it lets the kids play big minutes in Bakersfield until February, whereupon we rid ourselves of every expiring contract and then test drive the young talent. And load up on mid-round picks.
Now that I’ve had a chance to check the numbers… based on an $83.5M cap next year, Keller’s contract works out to $548k more than EW had valued him at this summer.
Connor is valued at $6.815M on a 6 year deal, Keller’s contract doesn’t give him a value bump of $1.685M. On an 8-year contract, Connor is estimated to be worth $7.161M, so something in the $7 – 7.5M range is reasonable.
Keller’s contract is about $600k above where EW had it, which isn’t unreasonable when you consider it doesn’t start until next year, meaning it’s probably perfectly accurate based on percentage of cap. You’re pegging Connor’s at $2.5M more than EW.
Bruce Dowbiggin on the Rogers slash and burn of it’s on air talent:
http://www.notthepublicbroadcaster.com/i-dont-like-mondays/2019/9/2/pwo3dh00b0sjoox4lki68i2s9ehw3j
“Audacious. That’s perhaps the best word to describe Rogers Communications attempt to supplant CBC and TSN as the go-to network for the NHL in Canada in 2013. It committed $ 5.2 billion over twelve years to buy national rights to Hockey Night in Canada and the rest of the TV and digital product on offer from the league.
Disastrous. That’s probably the best word to describe the outcome of the gamble. With the announcement the past few weeks that a significant slice of the on-air talent was being let go for economic reasons, it’s now clear that Rogers’ plans— shepherded by then-Rogers Media president Keith Pelley and his 2IC Scott Moore— are an embarrassing failure.
***
Last summer Rogers brass summoned Moore for a showdown. Informing him that 80 percent of their costs were tied up in properties. They demanded he cut salaries and payroll he’d generously awarded staff. The man who’d been the face of the deal since Pelley left for the European PGA Tour in 2016 told his bosses that he was a builder, not a tear-down guy.
With that Moore walked off to enjoy himself in a long-delayed holiday, leaving the people he’d recruited to fend for themselves. (Moore has subsequently found a new gig working with LeBron James.) Everyone who remained was going to be asked to tighten their belt, some by as much as 20 percent on their contracts. ”
Other news, Pierre McGuire demoted at NBC and replaced by Brian Boucher:
https://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/nbc-replacing-pierre-mcguire-on-national-nhl-broadcasts-report
“Per impeccable source, Pierre McGuire has been removed from NBC Sports’ No. 1 hockey team, to be replaced by Brian Boucher.— Rick Carpiniello (@RickCarpiniello) September 4, 2019”
DSF is always comedy gold. Intelligent? not so much…
I like the idea of a Marleau-Gegner-Kassian 3rd line. Especially if they can muck a lot of faceoffs.
Problem is, it likely moves Chiasson up to the 2nd line, because it’s Archibald or him. But if they can go Nygard at 2L maybe they’ll have enough speed to keep their heads above water. Still pretty meh for O though.
I agree with Godot. Nurse and Klef should be untouchable. Both are just entering their prime. If you delete them from the roster, you’re now waiting for the kids to mature, but doing it without the benefit of some older vets to support them. So our defence gets younger at the expense of guys in their prime, rather than guys exiting their prime. I would love to get Ehlers or Connor, but not at the price of Nurse or Klef.
Good deal that Seguin trade for him.
don’t forget about Loui Eriksson.
Could be worse. They could have Beagle and Roussel on the books for three more seasons. lol
Or 6 million for Tyler Myers. What a comedy gold mine. 😛
https://oilersnation.com/2019/07/05/how-will-the-edmonton-oilers-improve-part-two/
I wouldn’t have signed Chiasson on July 1, that’s for sure
I’m not sure how much Marleau would be expecting at this point
Kenny’s got a little walking around money, you’d think a signed contract right now would carry a little weight, certainly more than a PTO, or waiting…
Dutchie will find him a home at the trade deadline if Patty wants a playoff run
A much better plan.
Yes because waiting for Marleau to get rejected by all the teams he wants to play for would have been such a better plan
The smart bet is to pay a little extra for those few extra years right now. Cap will be flat next year as they try to get escrow under control. But new tv contract will increase the cap. Guys like Connor and Drai are going to regret taking those long contracts which is the only smart thing Chia did. I’m guessing in 5 years Mcdavid contract will be outside top 10 in league
They didn’t rush anything and can still sign Marleau.
But the Oilers rushed to sign Chiasson and Granlund
Dumb.
Marleau will not be returning to the Sharks this year but still wants to play in the NHL
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/agent-marleau-wont-play-for-sharks-this-season/ar-AAGOl8W?li=AAggNb9&ocid=mailsignout
I think Kellars contract puts that out of wack. I suspect we’ll have to wait for a while to find out
Given the current situation I think it is reasonable to expect the team to break camp with 13 forwards 8 defensemen and two goal tenders.
Tippett has indeed expressed that is what of his top attributes – getting the most out of players by putting them in a position to succeed.
Then again, last offseason (mid-season for Hitch):
– Yawney said the D would move the puck up the ice quicker
– McLellan said he would have more line continuity
– Hitchcock said he would fix Puljujarvi
It shouldn’t, according to Evolving Wild.
I think it is a deal worth thinking about. Team strength is LD. If it was an Eastern conference team it would be enticing. We have Lagesson, Jones, Samorukov and our latest first round draft choice in the wings with Russel to hold down the fort for a year. I do not think Holland does that deal until such time as he is comfortable with his evaluation of current assets.
I’m not going to quibble with OP’s post regarding CMD’s return, however I was wondering about Fan Day on Sept.14. It’s free and there’s an open practice between noon and 1:30. How important is it Connor shows up in 9 days?
Woodguy said the opposite about Gunarsson IIRC.
My point is happy people do things better.
The role players the Oilers have are better than last season, it’s up to Tip to get them going, Connor or no Connor.
Players put into the right spot can overachieve.
What year?
Who here remembers when Woodguy said that Gunnarson was the type of D that helps a team win Cups?
This is the thought process.
Yes, nothing to see – the message is basically the same – time line was for training camp and to be ready to start the season which is still a month away:
________________________
“On Sept. 3, you can’t say whether he’s ready or not to start the season. He has another month before the season starts, and he’s in very good shape. No one is saying (he will be delayed) until November or December. He’s done extremely well so far, and everyone is happy with his progression.”
Barring any setbacks — “There haven’t been any setbacks,” Jackson confirmed — the rehab schedule is a six-month project. And at the five-month mark, all sides are happy with the condition of McDavid’s knee.
“Dr. (Dhiren) Naidu and (head athletic trainer) T.D. Forss went into Toronto, went to the Gary Roberts facility and spent some time with Connor. They saw Connor, examined him and were very pleased with his progress,” said Oilers general manager Ken Holland.
“Between the Oilers training staff and medical team, working together with the team Jeff Jackson has put together for Connor, certainly there are some top-notch people.
“Any decisions that are made on the timeline with Connor, it’s not going to be one person making them.”
I’ll be shocked if Nurse is traded.
The nhl still highly values tough, and if you have a top 3 D that is a fantastic skater, team guy and a significant fighter, who trades that player? Only to employ a marginal knuckle dragger?
Same reason Kass may hang around for a lesser contract. Fast and tough, no square pucks. What will get him is sobriety or on ice discipline if it happens.
If you trade Nurse or Klefbom, it won’t be a lost year, it will be a lost two or three years.
One would set the defense way to far back. The OIlers don’t have anyone even remotely close to replacing those two at the moment.
I see what you’re saying, but I would respectfully counter that you can never have too many talented forwards, and for all the promise of the Oilers’ budding defensemen, the blue line still looks to have a long way to go before balance or even average quality.
I doubt Kyle Connor signs a 7m x 6 contract. I’d imagine his price point starts at 8.5.
In both cases it was coaching imo.
Good rosters but they punch punch above their weights.
True for Lavoie and possibly Maksimov.
My comment was in the context of the hypothetical trade involving Yamamoto (and Puljuljarvi presumably getting traded.) Given our lack of depth at RW, trading Yamamoto might not be a great idea even if his probability of success has dipped.
Great that Lavoie has a right-hand shot for sure.
and others are worse – Winnipeg, maybe Calgary, etc.
Jethro Tull,
Just my two cents, but when there were so many underperforming players, it seemed unfair that Bob was highlighting Reider’s 0 goals, and not the other dozen or so players who maybe should have played better on both sides of the ice. It would have been fairer if he rolled off a list of names…
Who are the Flames gooning up to play against? Not that Tobi is a goon.
For how smart many here touted them as last season seems like they are walking down a well beaten path. Team too wimpy so lost, broken heart.
We’ll see how that turns out. I think I know.
I expect regression in Leon’s points and goals but I expect both he and Drai to be “better players” overall and increase goal share, which is what really matters.
Also, last year had:
– terrible seasons by both Klefbom (injury) and Larsson (just a bad year) – i anticipate both will be substantially better and that is massive
– terrible seasons by the the incumbent #1 tender (Talbot) and marginal improvement, at best, by the “replacement”. I’m buying the verbal (and numbers) about Koskinen being better when not playing tired. Tippett will see to that as long as Smith is serviceable.
– total black holes in the bottom six, such as Rieder, Brodziak and, to a less extent, Lucic
– Lucic who essentially had zero chance at producing at top 6 rates – replaced by Neal who has a reasonable potential to do so.
————————
Not to mention coaching.
———————-
On McDavid, I don’t think that recovery addition relates to his injury – that is essentially for those with major knee surgery such as Sekera.
Bang on
Nothing is guaranteed to any team outside of the few current perennial contenders making the playoffs.
A cohesive team coached to the strengths of the roster can be greater than the sum of its parts, and a stacked team while it lasts can be less.
Teams now have the cap to contend with. I believe well run teams that contend have a better chance of turning out more helpful players from their drafts because of a few things. More competition for NHL spots, a better structure with more leadership and culture to come into, and more time to develop because roster spots are tough to get.
But it only takes a couple of flame outs to derail things cap wise (no cheap replacements that are quality) and I can’t think of any team that doesn’t have any those.
A GM that makes good decisions given a situation, understanding the cap and
assessing their roster correctly can keep their team close over time, by trading and not losing value, good UFA signings etc, but it’s no foregone conclusion it seems.
We’re a year away from knowing so much more, from having a much better idea of:
– where Bouchard may end up on the depth chart
– if Sammy will “make it” and maybe if he still has top pairing potential
– if Lagesson is looking like an every-day NHL Robyn Regher type player
– if Benson will be a legit top 6
– if Marody will be an NHL skill guy or an NHL middle 6 center
– if Maskimov can score and defend as he does at the pro level
– will Bear be an NHL player?
No, not all of these will be “answered” but we’ll have tons more info in just one year.