Riesen to Believe, Vol. 2

Oh, I’ve been waiting. All the discussion and the rage, the arguments that start and end with ‘feelings’ and the gigantic wall called summer have all washed away.

You may have chosen your favourite, you may have reasons, you may know in your heart of hearts. Experience tells me that you should also light a candle, pray to the God who listens and be a good human all through September. I don’t know if those things matter, but I don’t know if they don’t either. Better be safe. Here is the camp invite list.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions until Sept. 19 here.

  • New Lowetide: Evan Bouchard and the Calder Trophy: The Oilers’ pursuit of the elusive rookie award
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Alex Chiasson prepares to return to scoring form for Edmonton Oilers
  • New Jonathan Willis: Kyle Brodziak defied the odds, and then the Oilers, to carve out a significant NHL career
  • Lowetide: Can Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith stop enough pucks for the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Shutdown success by Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson is a key for the Oilers in 2019-20.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Even if he’s unsure about his return, Oilers’ Connor McDavid looks and sounds like his old self
  • Lowetide: RE 19-20: How can the Oilers’ bottom six close the gap in goal differential?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson address respective highs and lows as Oilers rookie camp begins
  • Jonathan Willis: Riley Sheahan is a prudent signing by the Oilers in more ways than one
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With Evan Bouchard as the headliner, here are the players to watch at Oilers rookie camp
  • Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
  • Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
  • Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

GOALIES

1 Mikko Koskinen, 31. He has an uneasy hold on the No. 1 job and will have to perform well if he’s going to keep it. Delivered in October and November (.924) but was overworked and spent by season’s end. I think he’ll perform well if used properly. 100 percent chance of making the team.

2 Mike Smith, 37. Smith started slowly but had a .912 save percentage after the All-Star break. There’s all kinds of risk with this signing, I think there’s a chance we see an addition at the position during the season. 100%

3 Shane Starrett, 25. Posted a great season in Bakersfield (.916 save percentage) and is the first recall option entering camp. I’ll be watching to see how much work he gets in preseason.

4 Dylan Wells, 21. Played 12 AHL games (.909 save percentage) and spent the rest of the year in the ECHL. I don’t know if there’s an edge for backup in Bakersfield but Wells might have the inside track (as a guess).

5 Stuart Skinner, 20. 41 ECHL (.903) games made him the Wichita starter, with just six AHL games (.879) during the regular year. Skinner caught fire for Bakersfield in the playoffs, with a .918 save percentage in four games.

6 Olivier Rodrigue, 19. 48 games in the QMJHL (.902) and he’s a consistent goaltender who may have the best pedigree among the young group. He was outstanding in Calgary Game 2 rookie camp.

LEFT DEFENSE

1 Oscar Klefbom, 26. Four more years at just over $4 million, he’s a grand value contract. Per 82gp: 8-24-32. I’m interested to see how coach Dave Tippett proceeds. An offensive pairing led by Klefbom sounds promising, depending on partner. 100%

2 Darnell Nurse, 24. A growing number of people who are convinced Nurse should be dealt, I’d like to see the team get four better blue before doing so. Nurse is easily top-4D with this team, and posted a strong 2017-18 (often with Adam Larsson). 100%

3 Kris Russell, 32. The prevailing wisdom has him starting on the left hand side, but that could change. He’s an NHL veteran defender, that has value. 100%

4 Caleb Jones, 22. Jones is in a terrific spot and I have him on the opening night roster. His speed stands out in this group and he can move the puck. He’s young but could be around a long time. 60%

5 William Lagesson, 23. There’s a lot of buzz about Lagesson, he has shutdown utility and some puck moving ability. A range of skills is a good thing. 27%

6 Brandon Manning, 29. He’ll be a recall option and I imagine Manning will play a top-6D role in Bakersfield.

7 Dmitri Samorukov, 20. He was so strong in the second half, and sometimes a late surge represents real progress. His uneven play at the rookie camp resembles his short stay in main camp a year ago.

8 Keegan Lowe, 26. Solid veteran will spend the season mentoring the AHL kids again. Important role.

9 Jake Kulevich, 26. He’s been in pro hockey since 2017-18, first in the Winnipeg Jets system and now the Oilers. Big shutdown blue.

RIGHT DEFENSE

1 Adam Larsson, 26. Shutdown defender had a difficult season, and the Oilers badly need a rebound. I still think he and Klefbom will play a lot together. 100%

2 Matt Benning, 25. I’m not certain where he’ll play on the depth chart, and he may not be with the team after the deadline, but entering camp Benning appears to be an important piece. 100%

3 Joel Persson, 25. He has a clear shot at the NHL job, it helps the organization to send the kids down. It won’t be easy but he has terrific puck moving skills. May get a shot with Klefbom. 60%

4 Evan Bouchard, 19. He’s a pure talent with the puck and his speed has improved. Defense is the question and 40 games in Bakersfield is perhaps the best course of action. 46%

5 Ethan Bear, 22. He was effective when healthy, and has NHL experience. I’m confident in placing him here, but wouldn’t be surprised if he makes the team out of camp. 26%

6 Logan Day, 24. His impressive season has been overlooked with all of the other RH puck movers joining the chorus this fall. I don’t know where he’s heading but last season in Bakersfield was impressive.

7 Vincent Desharnais, 23. Big defender turned pro with an AHL contract, he looked pedestrian with the puck at rookie camp.

CENTER

1 Connor McDavid, 22. Per 82gp: 37-69-106, the injury issue will be front and center until he plays. I’m expected a gigantic year, with a spike in goals. 100%

2 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 26. Per 82gp, he has scored 22-36-58, it’s vital he deliver at least those boxcars in 2019-20. His linemates are going to be an important decision for the coach. 100%

3 Riley Sheahan, 27. Per 82 gp for his career, he has scored 11-16-27, somewhere between Alex Chiasson and Zack Kassian (meaning he is not an efficient offensive player). Can win faceoffs and he’ll be on the PK. 100%

4 Gaetan Haas, 27. RH center who has speed and two-way skills, we don’t know if his skills are a match for the NHL game and we don’t know if he’ll need a period of adjustment. Edmonton is vulnerable here. 50%

5 Cooper Marody, 22. Skilled, smart and coming off an outstanding AHL debut. He can make it at center or on the wing. 30%

6 Colby Cave, 24. He has some utility but lacks any one strength to recommend him. He’s on the roster and he won 52 percent of his faceoffs. I don’t think he’s a long-term answer but he has a real shot at the roster. 20%

7 Kyle Brodziak, 35. He had a tough year, fell off demonstrably from previous level of performance. He was clearly not at full health, and is likely to be on injured reserve this season.

8 Brad Malone, 30. Malone serves as insurance at the position and has played 14 percent of his time with the Oilers in the NHL. If he’s recalled, something unplanned has happened.

9 Cameron Hebig, 22. It’s a big season for Hebig, who started last season as part of the Kid Line then faded away. He will need to find a role in Bakersfield. He played very well in the rookie games.

10 Ryan McLeod, 19. I don’t think he’ll see the NHL this season and am interested to see how much he brings offensively in the minors. Brilliant speed is going to get him chances.

11. Luke Esposito, 25. Proved to be quite useful in Bakersfield a year ago, he could play for the Condors or the ECHL (or both) this season.

12 Beau Starrett, 23. Giant forward showed well in rookie camp, there’s some useful skills with this forward.

LEFT WING

1 Leon Draisaitl, 23. The big man scored 50 goals last season, a feat that puts him on a higher level. Don’t expect another 50, but something close to career average (per 82gp: 29-44-73) is reasonable. A real gem. 100%

2 James Neal, 31. I think Ken Holland made out like a bandit with this trade, even if it doesn’t work out. I think 16 goals is a reasonable expectation. I also think Neal gets plenty of time on McDavid’s right wing. 100%

3 Markus Granlund, 26. He’ll be in the Rieder role, PK man who can score some, check some and maybe move from pivot as required. It’s a good choice, although you worry he lands more of a feature role than warranted. 100%

4 Jujhar Khaira, 25. Khaira is a rugged two-way forward who has shown signs of being a solid PK man. Per 82gp: 8-14-22, which isn’t a lot but his career high in goals (11) is stronger than the other options. 100%

5 Joakim Nygard, 26. He has speed, giving Nygard a major advantage over other hopefuls. His SHL scoring pace (he was among the league leaders) shouldn’t be overlooked. 70%

6 Tyler Benson, 21. I think he has a real chance to make the team. If Benson comes to camp, gets a chance with skill, and shows those passing skills, he can make the team. 55%

7 Tomas Jurco, 26. He has had some success (per 82gp: 9-11-20) in the NHL but it has been four years since he was a regular in the league 20%.

8 Joe Gambardella, 25. He scored 29 goals in the AHL last season and showed some ability in an NHL recall. A long shot, he could impress Tippett early and ride it to an NHL job. 15%

9 Nolan Vesey, 24. He hasn’t shown a lot.

RIGHT WING

1 Zack Kassian, 28. Per 82gp as an Oiler, he scored 10-14-24, which is excellent production for a role player but doesn’t warrant No. 1 line work. He does enter training camp as the top RW. 100%

2 Alex Chiasson, 28. Over the last three seasons, he output per 82gp is 16-15-31, and eight of his 22 goals a year ago came on the power play. He’s a bit of an odd match in this forward group (counting on 22 goals again is unwise). 100%

3 Josh Archibald, 26. One of my favourite offseason additions, Archibald can PK, score goals, skate and play a physical style. No real negatives. 100%

4 Sam Gagner, 30. One of the most interesting players on the roster, over the last three seasons he is delivering (per 82gp) 15-26-41. He could play on all four lines during the year. 100%

5 Josh Currie, 26. I think he could slide into a 13-14F job easily this training camp, so have ranked him here. No matter if Currie gets sent out, it’s better than even money that he plays in the NHL this coming season. 10%

6 Kailer Yamamoto, 20. I don’t think there’s much chance of Yamamoto making the roster out of camp, my suspicion is the organization wanted to see more a year ago. Wrist injury aside, he’ll have to show he can dominate the AHL before recall. 10%

7 Patrick Russell, 26. The more I look into his minor league season, the more impressive it looks. He’s a depth winger at the NHL level, but could see the NHL again this season. 2%

8 Kirill Maksimov, 20. I don’t see a path for him to make the opening night lineup, but a dominant first half in the AHL could see him recalled. He’s a perfect fit for a gigantic need.

9 Ostap Safin, 20. He’s lost a lot of time due to injury, but whenever he’s healthy the man is a load. Much like Benson a year ago, you’re just hoping for a complete season.

10 Raphael Lavoie, 18. Scoring forward likely headed to junior over the next few days. Promising goal scorer.

11 Anthony Peluso, 30. Big man with plenty of NHL experience, he’s ticketed for the AHL.

ESTIMATED OPENING NIGHT ROSTER

Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian

James Neal—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Alex Chiasson

Markus Granlund—Riley Sheahan—Josh Archibald

Jujhar Khaira—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner

Joakim Nygard, Colby Cave

Oscar Klefbom—Matt Benning

Darnell Nurse—Adam Larsson

Kris Russell—Joel Persson

Caleb Jones

Mikko Koskinen, Mike Smith

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we talk training camp and the season to come. Frank Seravalli from TSN joins the party for another winter and Ben Kramer from CFL Weekly will tee up the weekend’s action. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Let’s get this party started!

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195 Responses to "Riesen to Believe, Vol. 2"

  1. tileguy says:

    “He’s an NHL veteran defender, that has value.”

    An interesting use of punctuation to convey your feeling about KR, Mr. Tide.

  2. Lowetide says:

    tileguy:
    “He’s an NHL veteran defender, that has value.”

    An interesting use of punctuation to convey your feeling about KR, Mr. Tide.

    I always feel a need to make the distinction as I’m not on the “Russell is garbage” train. If Sekera played off side, people would look at his numbers and say “well, he’s playing off side that impacts” but Russell has never been given (imo) the same courtesy.

    If we’re going to reject bias, we have to reject all bias, even our own.

  3. Professor Q says:

    This is hilarious.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/d31qgu/with_the_recent_report_from_bob_mckenzie_heres_a/

    Paul Marner vs. Mrs. McLeod (mother of our dear Ryan and his brothers!) as Hockey Parents during the 2011 Silver Stick Tournament.

    Also, damn. $15,000-25,000 per year to be a hockey parent, and that’s without private academy schooling, likely.

  4. OriginalPouzar says:

    Training camp starts today!!!!!

    Just physicals and reporting but still – its starting and this fan is excited!

    Camp is going to be a test for the new coach.

    So many roster spots up in the air and so many players could play in various spots in the lineup.

    Going to be a challenge for Tippett to get that roster cut down and to get some of the decisions made early.

    Camp have the entire camp being a competition – need to get some certainty and work on gelling/chemistry/systems/etc.

    Go Tippett!

  5. OriginalPouzar says:

    Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian

    James Neal—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Alex Chiasson

    Markus Granlund—Riley Sheahan—Josh Archibald

    Jujhar Khaira—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner

    —————————–

    This could be right but that depth chart really needs something to bounce Chiasson out of of 2RW and move Neal over to 2RW.

    Hopefully one of Benson, Khaira or Nygard can be a legit 2LW – yes, that is probably not realistic but, my goodness, do things look better if Chiasson is bumped and Neal is on the right.

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oscar Klefbom—Matt Benning

    Darnell Nurse—Adam Larsson

    Kris Russell—Joel Persson

    Caleb Jones

    ———————————————–

    Yes, this looks “right” but, recall, just yesterday Holland said he’ll talk to Tippett before a game and “if a kid isn’t slated to play”, to the AHL he goes.

    I’m not sure we should take that comment at full face value but I don’t see Jones as 7D on game 1. I don’t see Persson not in the lineup either.

    At the same time, I don’t see Tippett not playing Russell.

    Something has to give.

    Is Jones AHL bound (or Persson) and Brandon Manning mans the pressbox?

  7. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – One of the “opportunities” in Conner’s absence, is Drai as C, and more wingers to play with skill

    – Neal, Chiasson, Kassian have first dibs, but now a chance for a 4rth to play with RNH and Drai

    – Be cautious and get him ready for the difficult 9 games in 18 days on-off mostly road schedule followed by 3 in 4 days in October: so he misses the first two home games.

    – See if any wingers can get chem with Drai and RNH for a bit

    – They have telegraphed Conners’ absence for awhile with the slow play of info: some just want to ignore this IMO, or won’t acknowledge that the rehab means less than ideal

    – He was limping a few months ago, he’s not going to ready IMO.

    – They can install the “Tippett style” sans CMD, then bring him in and press the turbo button…

  8. Brantford Boy says:

    LT, so I realize you posted your RE over at the Athletic… I was really interested in seeing them for the 2nd line… by way of information you’ve shared, I’ve got an idea what you believe to be reasonable… any chance you can fill in the missing numbers for Neal, or better yet correct them if wrong? Cheers!
    James Neal—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Alex Chiasson
    (16-XX-XX) – (22-36-58) – (16-15-31)

  9. jtblack says:

    A lot of players that have knee injuries, do not come back at 100%. It’s almost always in their head.

    I am sure there are examples of some who have come off of a knee injury and didn’t miss a beat, but the majority struggle for 3 – 6 months.

    IMO Connor will struggle (by his standards) until X Mas break ….

    Also, this injury has to be more serious than the Oilers ever let on. The injury happened in April! It has been over 5 months and they are still being cautious?

    #WorriedFan

  10. dustrock says:

    Benning as 1RHD is danger.

    But then I suppose Larsson is too.

  11. Alpine says:

    Russell grades out as a net positive in GAR and WAR, at least last season he did. I think he’s worth keeping in the lineup, and probably gives you the opportunity to have an higher-usage 3rd pairing, which is the role I wanted for Sekera this season.

  12. hunter1909 says:

    IT’S BACK!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON FREE TO ENTER + PLAY

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

  13. Andy Dufresne says:

    Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian

    James Neal—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Alex Chiasson

    Markus Granlund—Riley Sheahan—Josh Archibald

    Jujhar Khaira—Gaetan Haas—Sam Gagner

    You have got this thing completely surrounded.

    I
    Have a feeling that
    Once things get rolling at
    Practice
    Everything will be ok

  14. Brantford Boy says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: They have telegraphed Conners’ absence for awhile with the slow play of info: some just want to ignore this IMO, or won’t acknowledge that the rehab means less than ideal

    Hey Kinger, I totally agree… you know that old saying ‘I could beat you with one hand tied behind my back’… well I believe this to be true with Connor’s leg… I seriously doubt this will happen as we all want McDavid at 100% health, but if the “medical team” gives him the green light with the knowledge it won’t get worse, he’ll only have 5th gear for awhile, and there’s no risk of it getting worse, that’s still the best threat in the league. However (Cpt. Obvious says), if he’s at risk before he can get the 6th gear in say a week or months time, sadly he should sit, and sail on any possible chance of a playoff appearance.

  15. LadiesloveSmid says:

    We enter year 3 of ‘who will score after the 1st line?’

    Such high hopes for that dismal forward lineup

    Year after YEAR

  16. Jethro Tull says:

    Thought exercise: If Connor wasn’t able to go until into the new season and you still had tickets to sell, what would you do as GM?

    Shit, if Connor was done, how would you spin it?

    Prevarication and dissembling are the new ways of dealing with things.

  17. Pouzar says:

    Morrissey

    8yrs X $6.25 mil

    Hi Darnell.

  18. Brantford Boy says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Thought exercise:If Connor wasn’t able to go until into the new season and you still had tickets to sell, what would you do as GM?

    Shit, if Connor was done, how would you spin it?

    Prevarication and dissembling are the new ways of dealing with things.

    This thought exercise gave me a mini stroke, followed by some vomit forming in my mouth… please don’t say such things, a self ban on posting for a week will suffice… but I’d call St. Louis and ask to speak with Chiarelli.

  19. frjohnk says:

    hunter1909:
    IT’S BACK!!!!!!!! FOR ANOTHER EXCITING, INCREDIBLE SEASON FREE TO ENTER + PLAY

    Hunter1909’s Official 2019-20 Death March™

    Entries welcome between now and the first puck drop of the 2019-20 season(October 2)

    Here’s how you play: Guess how many points the Oilers get in the regular season.

    That’s it!

    Tie break: How many regular season goals does JP score for his new Finnish team?

    97 points
    20 goals

    As with last year, I picked 97 points and guessed with my heart as I want to see them in the playoffs

    My mind is marter and Im pretty sure we will end up with some where around 85-90 points.

  20. McNuge93 says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    We enter year 3 of ‘who will score after the 1st line?’

    Such high hopes for that dismal forward lineup

    Year after YEAR

    Nope, I’m committed to having no high hopes this year. That way I won’t be disappointed.

  21. OriginalPouzar says:

    Morrissey extended: 8 years, $50M – $6.25M

    Ken and Darnell – your up. Get er done and provide cap certainty.

  22. Darth Tu says:

    Brantford Boy: Hey Kinger, I totally agree… you know that old saying ‘I could beat you with one hand tied behind my back’… well I believe this to be true with Connor’s leg… I seriously doubt this will happen as we all want McDavid at 100% health, but if the “medical team” gives him the green light with the knowledge it won’t get worse, he’ll only have 5th gear for awhile, and there’s no risk of it getting worse, that’s still the best threat in the league.However (Cpt. Obvious says), if he’s at risk before he can get the 6th gear in say a week or months time, sadly he should sit, and sail on any possible chance of a playoff appearance.

    If he does sit for a month, I don’t think that means the season is a complete write off. Being top of the league in the first month means nothing. Look at Anaheim, for years they seemed to be completely asleep until around Christmas, then they’d wake up, do their thing, and march into the playoffs. St Louis last year, last in the league and then Stanley Cup champs.

    Granted both of those teams had solid rosters that were under performing, I’m under no illusions about the quality of the Oilers this year, but still have to hope we can do something if everything goes well.

  23. LadiesloveSmid says:

    McNuge93: Nope, I’m committed to having no high hopes this year. That way I won’t be disappointed.

    Ya big sarcasm there.

    I don’t think this team is better than last year’s. The bottom 6 can’t possibly score less but the top 6 can.

  24. Pouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Ya big sarcasm there.

    I don’t think this team is better than last year’s. The bottom 6 can’t possibly score less but the top 6 can.

    I don’t know….that bottom 6 was historically bad.

  25. Pretendergast says:

    Question for the group.

    Is there a maximum to the amount of extension money that can be given?

    As in going well over the cap for next year.

    In expectation of a Darnell extension, could we exceed the cap as far as we want as long as cap compliance is satisfied by next season’s start?

    My search continues.

  26. godot10 says:

    Pretendergast:
    Question for the group.

    Is there a maximum to the amount of extension money that can be given?

    As in going well over the cap for next year.

    In expectation of a Darnell extension, could we exceed the cap as far as we want as long as cap compliance is satisfied by next season’s start?

    My search continues.

    On extensions, one cannot go over the existing cap in future years, but the OIlers have so many expiring UFA’s that it is not a factor for the OIlers this year making it irrelevant with regards to Nurse if they choose to extend him this year.

  27. John Chambers says:

    Pouzar:
    Morrissey

    8yrs X $6.25 mil

    Hi Darnell.

    Do you think Nurse comes in beneath that number, or does his 41-pt season raise him above Morrissey?

    Unless Nurse is willing to go $6M x 7, I think you allow regression to soften his position.

  28. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Pouzar: I don’t know….that bottom 6 was historically bad.

    That’s what I’m trying to get at.

    The bottom 6 will score more, it’s like impossible not to. The top 6 featured career seasons from 97, 29, 93, and Chiasson. Missed 13 games between them.

    Leon probably scores 35, Chiasson scores 12. Nuge is a safe bet for 55-60P.

  29. Pouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid: The bottom 6 will score more, it’s like impossible not to.

    That and we have to believe (well…you understand) that maybe we finally get an uptick in PK performance from that same group. League average would be huge. Goalering will have something to say about that but I am nowhere near as down on the goaltending as most here.

  30. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Pouzar: Goalering will have something to say about that but I am nowhere near as down on the goaltending as most here.

    Me neither.

    Smith was such a poor choice. Talbot is better & even that duo didn’t cut it last season.

  31. Dr. Taboggan says:

    John Chambers,

    Nurse has more career points and has averaged more toi. My guess is he would want more but it is probably close.

  32. Jethro Tull says:

    LadiesloveSmid: The bottom 6 will score more, it’s like impossible not to.

    *Oilers’ Bottom 6* “Hold my beer…”

  33. russ99 says:

    I’m really hoping Chiasson sticks on the second line and puts up similar numbers as last year, otherwise re-signing him wasn’t the best idea.

    He doesn’t really fit on Tippett’s tough minutes 3rd line nor the speedy youthful soft minutes 4th line.

  34. defmn says:

    Bob Stauffer
    ‏Verified account @Bob_Stauffer
    2m2 minutes ago

    As previously reported by @SportsnetSpec Dave Tippett says that he has been told Kyle Brodziak won’t pass the physical and won’t be at Camp

  35. Jaxon says:

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Jurco got the nod over Cave as a Holland acquisition. Not a C, but they have other players on wing that also play C (Granlund, Khaira, Gagner, Draisaitl), so they’re won’t really be short on C if it’s Jurco.

  36. Jaxon says:

    So many interesting prospects to watch in main camp:
    G: Rodrique, Skinner, Wells, Starrett
    LD: Samorukov, Jones, Lagesson
    RD: Bouchard, Bear, Persson, Day
    C: McLeod, Marody, Hebig, Haas
    LW: Benson, Nyygard
    RW: Lavoie, Maksimov, Yamamoto, Safin

  37. russ99 says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Talbot was awful. Smith seems a better option despite age due to past history with Tippett’s systems.

    Can’t completely blame Cam, we ran him into the ground.

  38. defmn says:

    Jaxon:
    So many interesting prospects to watch in main camp:
    G: Rodrique, Skinner, Wells, Starrett
    LD: Samorukov, Jones, Lagesson
    RD: Bouchard, Bear, Persson, Day
    C: McLeod, Marody,Hebig, Haas
    LW: Benson, Nyygard
    RW: Lavoie, Maksimov, Yamamoto, Safin

    My favourite time of year. Full of promise and no dreams crushed quite yet.

  39. Jaxon says:

    John Chambers: Do you think Nurse comes in beneath that number, or does his 41-pt season raise him above Morrissey?

    Unless Nurse is willing to go $6M x 7, I think you allow regression to soften his position.

    I don’t think he’ll regress all that much. He’s 10th in the NHL at 5v5 over his last 177GP (that’s a substantial sample size) with 57 5v5 pts. He’s only 24, so his peak is still a few years down the road and the team is (hopefully) improving around him, which should only increase his numbers. Morrisey is 50th with 41 pts. Now, if we prorate Morrisey to playing the same number of games as Nurse (177GP) he’s a bit closer with 47 5v5 pts to put him in the low 30s range. Plus, Morrisey doesn’t have near the physical game that Nurse brings and Morrisey has lost his solid partner in Trouba. I would bet on Morrisey regressing before Nurse. Nurse might play with Larsson and be allowed to gamble more as Larsson is a stay-at-home D. Many things point to Nurse’s numbers going up, not down. What will Nurse command if he gets in the 53-55 pts range? Whatever it is, I think he’ll be worth it.

  40. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    russ99:
    I’m really hoping Chiasson sticks on the second line and puts up similar numbers as last year, otherwise re-signing him wasn’t the best idea.

    He doesn’t really fit on Tippett’s tough minutes 3rd line nor the speedy youthful soft minutes 4th line.

    – This is good stuff. Missed you Russ! I’d put Neal in the same boat: both need to be the type of players that “all they do is score goals”(with apologies to Buddy Ryan re: Chris Carter, great quote)

    – The 3rd “lock” for top-6 minutes, Kassian: at least he can play further down the roster. There is no hiding Chiasson or Neal if they don’t score…

  41. Jaxon says:

    defmn: My favourite time of year. Full of promise and no dreams crushed quite yet.

    Exactly! We’re all love sick puppies, dreaming about our favourite prospects lighting up the league.

  42. Yeti says:

    I’m interested in Gaetan Haas. With this likely his one big shot at making the NHL, he should come into camp very motivated and with the benefit of considerable accumulated experience. But is he really good enough? Those Swiss League numbers leave a big question mark and I’m intrigued to watch it play out.

  43. Pouzar says:

    Jezzuz…

    Andy Strickland (@andystrickland) · Twitter
    https://twitter.com/andystrickland

    Winnipeg made a recent short-term offer to RFA Patrik Laine in the $5 million per year range (less than $6). Term isn’t the issue in getting him signed. Will need to come up on money #gojetsgo
    35 mins ago

  44. Oil2Oilers says:

    The right wing depth chart is abysmal. I hope Nygard or Benson can capture a middle 6 roll allowing Neal to play 1st line RW. It is too high in the order for an aging Neal but ‘abysmal’ is being generous.

    Also the Morrissey contact would be a fine result for the Oilers to lock Nurse up for long term.

  45. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    A lot of players that have knee injuries, do not come back at 100%.It’s almost always in their head.

    I am sure there are examples of some who have come off of a knee injury and didn’t miss a beat, but the majority struggle for 3 – 6 months.

    IMO Connor will struggle (by his standards) until X Mas break ….

    Also, this injury has to be more serious than the Oilers ever let on.The injury happened in April!It has been over 5 months and they are still being cautious?

    #WorriedFan

    I believe that the further on-ice recovery from knee injuries is generally related to ligament surgery which Connor didn’t have. I could be wrong.

    They stated it was a PCL tear, no surgery required and the have always said the time line was start of the regular season.

  46. thehop says:

    Best hope McDavid and Draisaitl have career years again.

    Not likely of course.

    What is likely is that this team as constructed has LT writing draft posts by January.

  47. Jethro Tull says:

    thehop:
    Best hope McDavid and Draisaitl have career years again.

    Not likely of course.

    What is likely is that this team as constructed has LT writing draft posts by January.

    Why? They did, or close to it last year. We tanked. We want to be hoping people other than those two have career years.

  48. Oilman99 says:

    Oil2Oilers:
    The right wing depth chart is abysmal. I hope Nygard or Benson can capture a middle 6 roll allowing Neal to play 1st line RW. It is too high in the order for an aging Neal but ‘abysmal’ is being generous.

    Also the Morrissey contact would be a fine result for the Oilers to lock Nurse up for long term.

    Neal needs to be a 2nd line winger if the team is going to have any hope of being a contender. Nuge needs a true top six winger.

  49. Coiler says:

    In Connor I trust. We all know pre-season games don’t mean a whole lot for the likes of McJesus so let him be and hopefully he’ll be ready for the start of the season.

    A little off topic, but I wonder how many of you would take to this notion of ‘load management’ for star players like the Raptors did with Kawhi Leonard this past season. Not that the Oilers could really afford to have him out of the line-up but imagine a world where the team was super competitive and doing well in the standings. Would any of you be okay with him or Drai or any star player for that matter taking a game or two off throughout the season so that they’re better prepped for the playoffs?

  50. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: I believe that the further on-ice recovery from knee injuries is generally related to ligament surgery which Connor didn’t have.I could be wrong.

    They stated it was a PCL tear, no surgery required and the have always said the time line was start of the regular season.

    – Showing up for game 1 without a pre-season game is hardly ideal, and wasn’t the original “goal”

    – It’s been pretty clear the knee recovery takes a long time, and he isn’t “100%”, but as Branford said, Conner in 5th gear is still ok. Being “ready” is open to interpretation

    – The goal for any athlete is to be 100% for training camp. He isn’t. Many have been kidding themselves on this for a while IMO. It’s been clear for awhile that “peak CmD” won’t be there for game 1 of regular season: Timelines has moved back, and the tells in evidence for awhile:

    “In the days since the injury, it has been widely reported that McDavid suffered a posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) tear that would not require surgery, and he is expected to be ready for training camp in September. ”

    “I think he’s going to be fine. Sounds like a couple of weeks,” said an Oilers source.

    “Ultimately, I don’t want to come back too early, and make sure that it’s fully healed and you’re not going to get hurt again,”

    – Do you want CmD “ready” for game 1? I’m with Coiler: load manage him. We don’t have peak CmD for game 1.

  51. Oilman99 says:

    russ99:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    Talbot was awful. Smith seems a better option despite age due to past history with Tippett’s systems.

    Can’t completely blame Cam, we ran him into the ground.

    If he can play at the level he was at ,at the end of last season, Smith’s ability to handle, and pass the puck will be a great plus for the team.

  52. ArmchairGM says:

    Can we stop talking about $7-8M for Nurse now? He’s not worth more than Morrissey.

  53. JJS says:

    Poor Nuge

  54. Eh Team says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: “In the days since the injury, it has been widely reported that McDavid suffered a posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) tear that would not require surgery, and he is expected to be ready for training camp in September. ”

    We can only speculate as to his recovery and there’s really no point in that. It’s just a matter of rehab as surgery for PCL injuries is not commonly done. So, I wouldn’t expect complications, and McDavid isn’t short of work ethic.

    But really even if healthy do you want McDavid to be playing exhibition games? Probably just the very minimum which ideally would be a couple of games.

    It gives the team a chance to be functional without him. The Oilers will be a contender once they can saw off the opponents without McDavid.

  55. Jethro Tull says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Can we stop talking about $7-8M for Nurse now? He’s not worth more than Morrissey.

    You shut your mouth.
    How can you say?
    We go about things the wrong way?
    He is human and he needs to be loved;
    Just like everybody else does.

  56. ArmchairGM says:

    Jethro Tull: You shut your mouth.
    How can you say?
    We go about things the wrong way?
    He is human and he needs to be loved;
    Just like everybody else does.

    Oh, he’ll get lots of love, just not more than $50M worth of it.

  57. pts2pndr says:

    John Chambers: Do you think Nurse comes in beneath that number, or does his 41-pt season raise him above Morrissey?

    Unless Nurse is willing to go $6M x 7, I think you allow regression to soften his position.

    And what happens if he continues his upward progression? What you are suggesting is in my opinion high risk for minimal reward. I would suggest you offer him eight year at 6.25. I would be willing to go as high as 6.5 for eight year with the caveat of no, no no trade or no movement clauses.

  58. Professor Q says:

    Jethro Tull: You shut your mouth.
    How can you say?
    We go about things the wrong way?
    He is human and he needs to be loved;
    Just like everybody else does.

    We have The Morrissey House here, which is a quaint little bar (I enjoy it actually) that is in an old house and is Morrissey themed. They have a big double-decker bus painting with the famous lyrics from There Is A Light That Never Goes Out on it, and a nice fireplace.

    They serve a rotating local (and localish) beer menu!

  59. thehop says:

    Jethro Tull,

    I get it. I just don’t see that happening.

    That bottom six is no better than last year from what I can see. On paper at least.

    We wait

  60. jtblack says:

    russ99: and puts up similar numbers as last year,

    “and puts up similar numbers as last year,”

    Last season, Chiasson had 6 Goals after Jan.1st. 3 were PP. 3 EVG. Are those the numbers you are hoping for?

  61. JJ says:

    86 points
    11 goals

    Thanks Hunter.

  62. JimmyV1965 says:

    russ99:
    I’m really hoping Chiasson sticks on the second line and puts up similar numbers as last year, otherwise re-signing him wasn’t the best idea.

    He doesn’t really fit on Tippett’s tough minutes 3rd line nor the speedy youthful soft minutes 4th line.

    If Chiasson sticks on the second line, it most likely means the team is in trouble. Maybe not, but likely.

  63. Side says:

    jtblack:
    A lot of players that have knee injuries, do not come back at 100%.It’s almost always in their head.

    I am sure there are examples of some who have come off of a knee injury and didn’t miss a beat, but the majority struggle for 3 – 6 months.

    IMO Connor will struggle (by his standards) until X Mas break ….

    Also, this injury has to be more serious than the Oilers ever let on.The injury happened in April!It has been over 5 months and they are still being cautious?

    #WorriedFan

    I thought I read that full recovery for this type of injury can be up to 6 months, which would mean the end of his recovery period lines up with puck drop.

    I can see them taking the full 6 months just to be sure he has enough time and doesn’t screw anything up in a meaningless pre-season game.

    But I would also be much more relieved if he did participate in pre-season with no issues..

  64. JimmyV1965 says:

    Jaxon: I don’t think he’ll regress all that much. He’s 10th in the NHL at 5v5 over his last 177GP (that’s a substantial sample size) with 57 5v5 pts. He’s only 24, so his peak is still a few years down the road and the team is (hopefully) improving around him, which should only increase his numbers. Morrisey is 50th with 41 pts. Now, if we prorate Morrisey to playing the same number of games as Nurse (177GP) he’s a bit closer with 47 5v5 pts to put him in the low 30s range. Plus, Morrisey doesn’t have near the physical game that Nurse brings and Morrisey has lost his solid partner in Trouba. I would bet on Morrisey regressing before Nurse. Nurse might play with Larsson and be allowed to gamble more as Larsson is a stay-at-home D. Many things point to Nurse’s numbers going up, not down. What will Nurse command if he gets in the 53-55 pts range? Whatever it is, I think he’ll be worth it.

    If you ask me, Trouba is the one who will regress in a massive way. That Ranger defence makes ours look like all stars.

  65. Dipsy Doodle Dandy says:

    Oilman99,

    Cam Talbot will be in the KHL next year with his .892 save percentage. Maybe with MacTavish’s team.

  66. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Eh Team:
    It gives the team a chance to be functional without him.The Oilers will be a contender once they can saw off the opponents without McDavid.

    – Yeah, this was my original framing of the “opportunity” sans CmD

    – The Raptors won with load management Khawhi, and part of it was they stepped up in his absence

    – I’ll let the CmD injury thingy go, it just seems that the consensus that there is no worry or reason for concern, and that CmD will be fine is contrary to professional sport rehab.They said no pre-season games for him. Hope that diagnostic changes if its warranted.

    – I get it, contemplating non-peak or absent CmD is not fun, but its most likely IMO. And longer-term, there might be some benefits

    It’s not: “CmD isn’t back 100%, but it’s all good, he’s a stud, I’m not fussed”

    It should be “CmD isn’t back 100%, and that’s not ideal, but his absence presents opportunities”

    (I’m much more comfortable with the later IMO)

  67. Pouzar says:

    thehop:
    Jethro Tull,

    I get it. I just don’t see that happening.

    That bottom six is no better than last year from what I can see. On paper at least.

    We wait

    I will take the bet they are better than next year. That’s an easy one.

  68. Cassandra says:

    Pouzar:
    Jezzuz…

    Andy Strickland (@andystrickland) · Twitter
    https://twitter.com/andystrickland

    Winnipeg made a recent short-term offer to RFA Patrik Laine in the $5 million per year range (less than $6). Term isn’t the issue in getting him signed. Will need to come up on money #gojetsgo
    35 mins ago

    The cap is flat, and yet players are expecting inflationary raises. Both things can’t be true at the same time. You can talk all you want about what is fair, or what a player is worth, but right now the supply of available cap space is not big enough to pay everyone what they are expecting.

    I think a lot of players are going to start signing for less than expected or they aren’t going to sign at all. We just saw it with Jake Gardiner, we will see it with some, but not all, of these RFA’s, and we will really see it next year with the UFA group.

    There has never been less cap space in the league than right now, for players it is a game of musical chairs to see who is going to get it.

  69. pts2pndr says:

    JimmyV1965: If Chiasson sticks on the second line, it most likely means the team is in trouble. Maybe not, but likely.

    I would agree. Chaisson and Neal on the same line make a very slow train. They need to play on separate lines 5 on 5. They would be okay on the PP. I am of the belief that Chaisson was signed as insurance in the event Neal struggles.

  70. Coiler says:

    Mr Hunter,

    Please put me down for 90 points.
    JP gets 23 goals.

    Merci.

  71. bhooradley says:

    Jethro Tull: You shut your mouth.
    How can you say?
    We go about things the wrong way?
    He is human and he needs to be loved;
    Just like everybody else does.

    Good one Jethro…

  72. ashley says:

    Is Yamamoto another first round whiff? This is the real story of Oiler under performance. They badly needed more from first and second round picks in the past 6-7 years to support these CMD years. Also, traded picks put a lot of pressure on the picks that remained.

  73. Kmart99 says:

    When’s the last time this team has had this many depth forwards that could crack the roster, but also be cut? I’m so used to going in to the season just thinking, well, the kids are on the roster, hope they’re good!

    Nygard, Granlund, Benson, Jurco, Marody, Archibald, Gambardela, Cave, Haas, Currie, Sheahan…. I mean, there’s just no possible way this team’s bottom six doesn’t see a noticeable bump relative to last season.

    11 bottom six forwards essentially competing for 2-3 spots.

    I’m not sure you can say that any of these guys are 100% to make the lineup. Anyone on a 1 year contract can be waived/traded.

    Sheahan and Archibald look to be locks… but I’m not convinced that they are both on the roster by the end of November. I mean, even Granlund at 1.3M isn’t an absolute lock for time beyond November.

    Also, Caleb Jones is definitely the real deal and I’m buying him leap frogging Kris Russell on the left side by New Year’s. He just looked so ready last season.

  74. Jethro Tull says:

    Professor Q: We have The Morrissey House here, which is a quaint little bar (I enjoy it actually) that is in an old house and is Morrissey themed. They have a big double-decker bus painting with the famous lyrics from There Is A Light That Never Goes Out on it, and a nice fireplace.

    They serve a rotating local (and localish) beer menu!

    I just googled it, looks awesome! Could sink a few in there……unless it’s full of angst-filled Mancs.

  75. Lowetide says:

    Brantford Boy:
    LT, so I realize you posted your RE over at the Athletic… I was really interested in seeing them for the 2nd line… by way of information you’ve shared, I’ve got an idea what you believe to be reasonable… any chance you can fill in the missing numbers for Neal, or better yet correct them if wrong? Cheers!
    James Neal—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Alex Chiasson
    (70, 18-14-32) – (72, 20-32-52) – (66, 12-10-22)

    That would be wrong. 🙂

  76. PinkSocks says:

    pts2pndr:.I am of the belief that Chaisson was signed as insurance in the event Neal struggles.

    Don’t believe that 😉 Chaisson was signed July 1, Neal acquired July 19.

  77. ArmchairGM says:

    ashley:
    Is Yamamoto another first round whiff?This is the real story of Oiler under performance.They badly needed more from first and second round picks in the past 6-7 years to support these CMD years.Also, traded picks put a lot of pressure on the picks that remained.

    Underperformance how? He’s tracking along the same lines as others drafted in the late 1st round in 2017.

  78. PinkSocks says:

    Cassandra: The cap is flat, and yet players are expecting inflationary raises.Both things can’t be true at the same time.You can talk all you want about what is fair, or what a player is worth, but right now the supply of available cap space is not big enough to pay everyone what they are expecting.

    I think a lot of players are going to start signing for less than expected or they aren’t going to sign at all.We just saw it with Jake Gardiner, we will see it with some, but not all, of these RFA’s, and we will really see it next year with the UFA group.

    There has never been less cap space in the league than right now, for players it is a game of musical chairs to see who is going to get it.

    About a ~$1m of an overpay at the time, Draisaitl sitting at $8.5m is great value and I’m sure glad the cap was not in the same situation then as it is today.

    Laine, Connor and Point are going to have to take lower AAVs to play this season.

    Marner & his dad turning down $11m is disgraceful and he deserves what he gets from Leaf fans.

    Vancouver is up shit creek with their cap and Boeser. Makes Roussel and Beagle signings last season look like even bigger mistakes. Linden was right to gtfo of there.

    I’m glad Tkachuk is still unsigned, I hope the Flames give him a boatload of money.

    Sakic won’t like it but he has plenty of money, so Rantanen is the only guy who could actually get a bit more than his market value.

  79. jtblack says:

    ashley:
    Is Yamamoto another first round whiff?This is the real story of Oiler under performance.They badly needed more from first and second round picks in the past 6-7 years to support these CMD years.Also, traded picks put a lot of pressure on the picks that remained.

    we need another 3 years to determine if Yamamoto is a whiff.

  80. jtblack says:

    ashley:
    Is Yamamoto another first round whiff?This is the real story of Oiler under performance.They badly needed more from first and second round picks in the past 6-7 years to support these CMD years.Also, traded picks put a lot of pressure on the picks that remained.

    Of all the players chosen after Yamamoto in the draft, 1 player has played more NHL Games; Jokaharju (Chicago) …. So perhaps he is not a whiff, but tracking similiar to the rest of his peers …

    Very few players chosen outside the Top 20 play in Draft +1 or Draft +2 ….Some do and would flat out be the exception as it takes the ones who end up making it years to crack an NHLlineup and the majority drafted will never be full time NHL players ..

  81. PinkSocks says:

    ashley:
    Is Yamamoto another first round whiff?This is the real story of Oiler under performance.They badly needed more from first and second round picks in the past 6-7 years to support these CMD years.Also, traded picks put a lot of pressure on the picks that remained.

    The book has yet to be written on KY, but even if he doesn’t pan out, was it a scouting problem or was it a coaching/development problem? Keeping him in the NHL in his draft +1 was a gigantic mistake. TMac and PC hold the responsibility if KY fails.

  82. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Can we stop talking about $7-8M for Nurse now? He’s not worth more than Morrissey.

    I would argue that at 6.5 for eight years Nurse would be the better value and that he has a greater upside. His size and skating make him more durable and his tool box allows him to be a better all around D man. With experience his game will get better and its a safe bet Morrissey will always be a small D man.

  83. PinkSocks says:

    jtblack: Of all the players chosen after Yamamoto in the draft, 1 player has played more NHL Games; Jokaharju (Chicago) ….So perhaps he is not a whiff, but tracking similiar to the rest of his peers …

    Very few players chosen outside the Top 20play in Draft +1 or Draft +2 ….Some do and would flat out be the exception as it takes the ones who end up making it years to crack an NHLlineup and the majority drafted will never be full time NHL players ..

    And some of the best of the draft haven’t even played in the NHL yet. Makar, Glass, Frost & Brannstrom haven’t started their careers yet. A long way yet to determine KY’s future.

  84. Lowetide says:

    ashley:
    Is Yamamoto another first round whiff?This is the real story of Oiler under performance.They badly needed more from first and second round picks in the past 6-7 years to support these CMD years.Also, traded picks put a lot of pressure on the picks that remained.

    He performed extremely well in junior when healthy and his AHL performance was solid despite the wrist.

  85. commonfan29 says:

    I really, really like the new alternates.

    I will not be taking questions on this matter.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar:
    Morrissey

    8yrs X $6.25 mil

    Hi Darnell.

    Sign it – today!

    “Media” believe Nurse will get more.

  87. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tippett – about 10 players he needs to find out about, they will play lots of games early.

  88. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    jtblack: we need another 3 years to determine if Yamamoto is a whiff.

    I’m thinking more like two years … right now he is a whi.

  89. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pretendergast:
    Question for the group.

    Is there a maximum to the amount of extension money that can be given?

    As in going well over the cap for next year.

    In expectation of a Darnell extension, could we exceed the cap as far as we want as long as cap compliance is satisfied by next season’s start?

    My search continues.

    They have $25M of cap room (give or take) for next season so this is not an issue.

  90. Darth Tu says:

    ashley:
    Is Yamamoto another first round whiff?This is the real story of Oiler under performance.They badly needed more from first and second round picks in the past 6-7 years to support these CMD years.Also, traded picks put a lot of pressure on the picks that remained.

    There’s a big difference in timelines for a player drafted in the 20-31 slot in a draft becoming a productive NHL player versus someone drafted in the top 5, or even top 10.

    We still have a few years before Kailer can be judged.

  91. godot10 says:

    ashley:
    Is Yamamoto another first round whiff?This is the real story of Oiler under performance.They badly needed more from first and second round picks in the past 6-7 years to support these CMD years.Also, traded picks put a lot of pressure on the picks that remained.

    Most WHL scoring forwards shorter than 6 feet need two full seasons in the AHL before they crack the NHL. Yamamoto has had about half of one due to mishandling by Oilers management. He should be ready by Jan 1 2001. And that would be a normal timeline.

  92. ArmchairGM says:

    pts2pndr: I would argue that at 6.5 for eight years Nurse would be the better value and that he has a greater upside. His size and skating make him more durable and his tool box allows him to be a better all around D man. With experience his game will get better and its a safe bet Morrissey will always be a small D man.

    So we’re paying people by the inch now?

  93. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: They have $25M of cap room (give or take) for next season so this is not an issue.

    They have a bunch of players coming off the books, true, but those players need to be replaced by much better players, who strangely enough, cost more money.

    Being sloppy with the cap has got us here. In an ideal world, there’ll be just enough prospects that are good enough to be counted as value contracts, ie; they play at the same level or higher than an older player that demands more salary.

    Throwing money at Nurse because, “hey, we got $25Mill, y’all” isn’t wise. Watching how the new contracts seem to be structured and learning from it is.

  94. Jethro Tull says:

    commonfan29:
    I really, really like the new alternates.

    I will not be taking questions on this matter.

    Very niiiicce!

  95. Darth Tu says:

    Care of Bob Stauffer:

    How about this for October 2nd:

    Draisatl-McDavid-Kassian
    Gagner-RNH-Neal
    Granlund-Sheahan-Archibald
    Khaira-Haas-Chiasson
    Nygard-Cave

    I like the 3rd line in theory. not a fan of Gagner on the second (especially on leftwing).

    Comment away.

  96. blainer says:

    Really like what Tippet is saying today.

    I was gonna go really low on Hunter’s prediction but will wait now to see how it all looks after pre season.

    Tippet might just turn out to be the difference. I’m not overly pleased with the work KH did over the summer but on paper at least that PK looks a lot better. Maybe there will be a chance if the team does buy in to Tippets systems.

    I also reviewed Persson’s highlights again and if he can bring that kind of play to the PP Bouchard will be in AHL for sure .. which is a good thing. Trying to find SOME optimism here but it is still difficult when I look at this lineup..

    If we just had one more scoring winger !!

  97. Jethro Tull says:

    Darth Tu:
    Care of Bob Stauffer:

    How about this for October 2nd:

    Draisatl-RNH-Kassian
    Gagner-Sheahan-Neal
    Granlund-Haas-Archibald
    Khaira-Cave-Chiasson
    Nygard-Cave

    I like the 3rd line in theory. not a fan of Gagner on the second (especially on leftwing).

    Comment away.

    FIFY.

    I think we maybe getting softened up for Connor not making opening night.

    Also, you could almost forgive that bottom 6 + 2 if Taylor was 2nd line LW…..

  98. Jethro Tull says:

    blainer:
    Really like what Tippet is saying today.

    I was gonna go really low on Hunter’s prediction but will wait now to see how it all looks after pre season.

    Tippet might just turn out to be the difference. I’m not overly pleased with the work KH did over the summer but on paper at least that PK looks a lot better. Maybe there will be a chance if the team does buy in to Tippets systems.

    I also reviewed Persson’s highlights again and if he can bring that kind of play to the PP Bouchard will be in AHL for sure .. which is a good thing. Trying to find SOME optimism here but it is still difficult when I look at this lineup..

    If we just had one more scoring winger !!

    It seems that Ken and Dave are working much more closely together than Pete and Todd.

    Ken: Dave, we need to go over the players that you think can play in your systems.
    Dave: Can we get player X?
    Ken: Probably not this year, cap-strung. What about Y for a year?
    Dave: OK, for a year.

    vs.

    Pete: These are the ingredients you have to make chocolate cake.
    Todd: You need to do a grocery run, there’s no eggs, no flour, hell, not even any cocoa!
    Pete: Ok, I’ll be back in an hour, I’ll do a costco run.

    *6 hours later, Pete rocks up smelling of whiskey with lipstick on his collar, a bunch of wilted flowers and a box of knock-off gas station Fererro Roche.*

  99. Darth Tu says:

    Jethro Tull: FIFY.

    I think we maybe getting softened up for Connor not making opening night.

    Also, you could almost forgive that bottom 6 + 2 if Taylor was 2nd line LW…..

    Connor will be ready when he’s ready. There’s every chance he misses the first week or so, I’d maybe not go with Nuge and Drai together, but see the temptation in doing it.

    Nygard is a burner, so we could see him in the lineup.

    Maybe we end up with:

    Benson-Nuge-Kassian
    Khaira-Drai-Chiasson
    Granlund-Sheahan-Archibald
    Nygard-Haas-Gagner

    Those top two lines would end up being mixed up well before the end of the first game though.

    It’s not easy when you lose one of Connor, Drai, or Nuge to make this work, eh?

  100. silasbengtsson says:

    jtblack: “and puts up similar numbers as last year,”

    Last season, Chiasson had 6 Goals after Jan.1st. 3 were PP.3 EVG.Are those the numbers you are hoping for?

    The only remotely positive thought I can derive from that is that, even at that lower pace, he still would’ve been our 5th best goal scorer last year…

  101. Brantford Boy says:

    Lowetide,

    Thank you… although I was really hoping for a 42 RE point total for Neal, dreams crushed, again!

  102. jtblack says:

    silasbengtsson: The only remotely positive thought I can derive from that is that, even at that lower pace, he still would’ve been our 5th best goal scorer last year…

    the reality is, if Chiasson gets over 10 Goals, it’s probably a win …I definitely don’t see 22 again … if he flirts with 15 that would be great …

  103. Side says:

    godot10: Most WHL scoring forwards shorter than 6 feet need two full seasons in the AHL before they crack the NHL.Yamamoto has had about half of one due to mishandling by Oilers management.He should be ready by Jan 1 2001.And that would be a normal timeline.

    Really, you think so? Personally, I don’t think having a 3 year old Kailer Yamamoto on the Oilers team is the best plan.

  104. thehop says:

    Pouzar,

    What’s the wager?

  105. Pouzar says:

    commonfan29: I will not be taking questions on this matter.

    Why?

  106. Pouzar says:

    thehop:
    Pouzar,

    What’s the wager?

    *rubs hands*
    c-note donation to the site.

    Now we have to draw up terms.

    If only we had lawyer on the site….hmmmm

  107. pts2pndr says:

    thehop:
    Jethro Tull,

    I get it. I just don’t see that happening.

    That bottom six is no better than last year from what I can see. On paper at least.

    We wait

    It may not be better but it is faster and has players with areas of proven ability such as PK and face-offs which last years group was missing.

  108. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: So we’re paying people by the inch now?

    How many games did Morrissey play last year. When you are talking 8 year contracts the ability to stay healthy is a big part of the value equation. D take a beating. Nurse is much less likely to get run because of the consequences. His wing span also figures into the defensive equation and he is an excellent skater. Too many times the grass looks greener on the other side of the fence.

  109. Scungilli Slushy says:

    LT you probably have the roster surrounded. I’d rather see Granlund or Nygard with Nuge and Neal than Chiasson. Neal at his preferred RW.

    The Swedes to forecheck like madmen with speed (so Nuge doesn’t have to do the majority because the others are too slow), and with enough hands to mop up what ever Nuge and Neal can’t bury.

    I get that they aren’t top 6 scorers, but they are fast and with both their production is even G – A or even more to the G side. They like to score.

    If Benson has enough overall he’d be good as well, although I get the feeling he needs a bit more time. I might feel different if he had ripped up the rookies. The fact nobody could finish is a bit of a tell perhaps.

    I would feel bad again saddling Nuge with slow players and one that is slow and also not a top 6 forward.

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Me neither.

    Smith was such a poor choice. Talbot is better & even that duo didn’t cut it last season.

    This remains to be seen – could be right but may not be.

    Of course, goaltending was not good enough but a “better team” will help that – better defence, oubviously, more time spend in offensive zone, etc. – coaching a big factor in this – hopefully.

  111. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jaxon:
    I wouldn’t be surprised if Jurco got the nod over Cave as a Holland acquisition. Not a C, but they have other players on wing that also play C (Granlund, Khaira, Gagner, Draisaitl), so they’re won’t really be short on C if it’s Jurco.

    If Colby Cave is on the opening night roster, the team is not good enough and most bets have already not been covered.

    He is a 16th forward, a depth call-up.

    No offence to him, he’s just in the same group as Currie, P. Russell, Malone, etc. – at least in my mind.

  112. pts2pndr says:

    PinkSocks: Don’t believe that Chaisson was signed July 1, Neal acquired July 19.

    You are correct. I do believe that the lucic/ Neal deal was in the works at the time. By signing Chiasson it gave them cover if Neal wasn’t able to rebound. This in turn made the Neal deal less of a risk.

  113. LadiesloveSmid says:

    OriginalPouzar: This remains to be seen – could be right but may not be.

    Of course, goaltending was not good enough but a “better team” will help that – better defence, oubviously, more time spend in offensive zone, etc. – coaching a big factor in this – hopefully.

    I really don’t know that coaching will have much of an impact.

    The roster is maybe marginally better. Could be argued worse. They need a lot & a lot to go right to come close to playoffs.

  114. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    FUN FACT:

    – Nuge, the most tenured Oiler has had 9 coaches, 3 GM’s: wow!!! I thought I read that wrong

  115. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    “Mikko Koskinen, 31. He has an uneasy hold on the No. 1 job and will have to perform well if he’s going to keep it. Delivered in October and November (.924) but was overworked and spent by season’s end. I think he’ll perform well if used properly. 100 percent chance of making the team.”

    I’ve heard this from so many sources, and I continue to struggle with it. The statement reads as if he was for sure overworked coming out of November. That’s a grand assumption in my view. He’s a 29-30 year old man who has been playing pro hockey for a decade, and he’s spent after two months? Hard to believe. I think what we saw is a small sample size correct over time.

    Anders Nilsson has had multiple exceptional starts over the course of his career. He’s got something like a 930 sv% in October for his career. Does he get tired, or is it random chance? We don’t know, just like we don’t know with Koskinen. Saying “he got tired” sounds nice but it doesn’t make it true.

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nurse has been producing solid 5 on 5 numbers for the better part of three seasons now – a top 15 5 on 5 producer. Yes, there is some McDavid zoom and his numbers seem to outpace his offensive instincts and offensive game but that is him – the sample size is beyond long enough.

    The bump from 25-30 to 40 plus points last year was pretty much solely due to PP time – something he had never had in his NHL career. He was OK, not great but OK on the PP.

    With Klefbom healthy and the likes of Persson likely to take PP time, I would expect Nurse to receive less PP minutes and his production fade a bit to the low 30s.

    Even so – sign that long-term contract now buddy. Anything less than $7M and I’m happy even if its higher that I or we think it should be by a bit – I feel he is going to be HARD to get signed and wants to get paid. Mini-Marner. I’m willing to pay a bit of a premium to get er done early.

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yeti:
    I’m interested in Gaetan Haas. With this likely his one big shot at making the NHL, he should come into camp very motivated and with the benefit of considerable accumulated experience. But is he really good enough? Those Swiss League numbers leave a big question mark and I’m intrigued to watch it play out.

    When he was originally signed, I thought “AHL depth” and couldn’t believe it when he became an “NHL signing”.

    I’m very intrigued to see this guy play, there must be something in his game that we don’t see in the numbers – the GM has wanted him for a few years.

  118. jtblack says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I really don’t know that coaching will have much of an impact.

    The roster is maybe marginally better. Could be argued worse. They need a lot & a lot to go right to come close to playoffs.

    COMING off a year where the following players had career highs in Goals:

    MCDAVID
    DRAISATL
    RNH
    CHIASSON
    KASSIAN

    And yet the team ended up with 78 points …

    I just don’t see those 5 at the same level and don’t see enough from the additions and bottom players to make up and push into the playoffs …. Unless Gagner scores 60 😉

    we wait

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    KingerOilredux: – Showing up for game 1 without a pre-season game is hardly ideal, and wasn’t the original“goal”

    – It’s been pretty clear the knee recovery takes a long time, and he isn’t “100%”, but as Branford said, Conner in 5th gear is still ok.Being “ready” is open to interpretation

    – The goal for any athlete is to be 100% for training camp.He isn’t.Many have been kidding themselves on this for a while IMO.It’s been clear for awhile that “peak CmD” won’t be there for game 1 of regular season:Timelines has moved back, and the tells in evidence for awhile:

    “In the days since the injury, it has been widely reported that McDavid suffered a posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) tear that would not require surgery, and he is expected to be ready for training camp in September. ”

    “I think he’s going to be fine. Sounds like a couple of weeks,” said an Oilers source.

    “Ultimately, I don’t want to come back too early, and make sure that it’s fully healed and you’re not going to get hurt again,”

    – Do you want CmD “ready” for game 1?I’m with Coiler: load manage him.We don’t have peak CmD for game 1.

    “Expected to be ready for training camp” – well, camp is starting and he’s passed his physical and ready to participate. There are no indications that he won’t be a 100% participant in camp. As I just listened to him say, he hasn’t been limited at all in the drills he’s been doing and they are essentially the same as the drills in camp.

    He usually plays about 3 exhibition games and he may play 1.

    I’d prefer he play his “normal 3” but, as of right now, very little is different and its NOT clear that he’s not 100%.

  120. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman: If he can play at the level he was at ,at the end of last season, Smith’s ability to handle, and pass the puck will be a great plus for the team.

    Give or take Joel Persson to start the year, Smith may be out best puck mover.

    As long as we realize that once every 3, 5, 7 games, he’s going to give up the puck for an empty net goal, we should be enthused that the vast majority of a time, his puck moving skills should be a material plus for the team.

  121. defmn says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    FUN FACT:

    – Nuge, the most tenured Oiler has had 9 coaches, 3 GM’s: wow!!!I thought I read that wrong

    Nuge arrived 2011.

    Tambellini was GM until 2013, then McTavish, Chiarelli, Gretzky (interim) and now Holland.

    It would be too depressing to list all the head coaches.

  122. Lowetide says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    “Mikko Koskinen, 31. He has an uneasy hold on the No. 1 job and will have to perform well if he’s going to keep it. Delivered in October and November (.924) but was overworked and spent by season’s end. I think he’ll perform well if used properly. 100 percent chance of making the team.”

    I’ve heard this from so many sources, and I continue to struggle with it.The statement reads as if he was for sure overworked coming out of November.That’s a grand assumption in my view.He’s a 29-30 year old man who has been playing pro hockey for a decade, and he’s spent after two months?Hard to believe.I think what we saw is a small sample size correct over time.

    Anders Nilsson has had multiple exceptional starts over the course of his career.He’s got something like a 930 sv% in October for his career.Does he get tired, or is it random chance?We don’t know, just like we don’t know with Koskinen.Saying “he got tired” sounds nice but it doesn’t make it true.

    Koskinen played no back-to-back nights in the first two months, and posted a .919 save percentage. After that, he had five back-to-back nights and the Oilers rode him hard. His SP was .897. History tells us that fatigue impacts goalie performance.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Can we stop talking about $7-8M for Nurse now? He’s not worth more than Morrissey.

    This is definitely up for debate.

    Jaxon provided some good info.

    Yes, some offensive numbers are zoomed by McDavid, however, Morrissey played over 90% of his 5 on 5 minutes with Trouba – he played 81 minutes without him. That is more substantial.

  124. defmn says:

    The new alternate jerseys. Not sure if they have been around for awhile or not but first time I have seen them.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EESGUo2VAAA0mzb.jpg

  125. Jethro Tull says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    FUN FACT:

    – Nuge, the most tenured Oiler has had 9 coaches, 3 GM’s: wow!!!I thought I read that wrong

    Lol, Nuge: Coach Killa.

  126. Side says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    FUN FACT:

    – Nuge, the most tenured Oiler has had 9 coaches, 3 GM’s: wow!!!I thought I read that wrong

    I’m surprised he doesn’t walk around perpetually looking exhausted with a 5 o clock shadow and a lit cigarette in his mouth..

  127. McSorley33 says:

    Jaxon,

    So many interesting prospects to watch in main camp:
    G: Rodrique, Skinner, Wells, Starrett
    LD: Samorukov, Jones, Lagesson
    RD: Bouchard, Bear, Persson, Day
    C: McLeod, Marody, Hebig, Haas
    LW: Benson, Nyygard
    RW: Lavoie, Maksimov, Yamamoto, Safin
    *********************************************************************
    I hope so.

    Because some of the above were not very noticeable against what many
    consider to be the worst prospect pool in the NHL. ( Calgary)

  128. Professor Q says:

    Lowetide: Koskinen played no back-to-back nights in the first two months, and posted a .919 save percentage. After that, he had five back-to-back nights and the Oilers rode him hard. His SP was .897. History tells us that fatigue impacts goalie performance.

    And Tippett has repeated that he’d love to have both goalies aim for 41 good games each, optimally, but they know it’s a competition. He’s admitted that he understands they can’t be full starters anymore (and that you can’t really have that in the league anymore) but hopes they’ll be 1A and 1B, pushing each other.

  129. SwedishPoster says:

    A couple of notes after watching the interviews from the start of camp; Draisaitl has a good hockey eye both on and off the ice, career ending injury aside I’d bet he’s efficient up to his late 30s at least and them goes straight to coaching, Klefbom has been reading the lowetide comment section and thinks Godot is deciding the pairings this season, McDavid is so tired of questions about his knee, it’s easy to see why the new sober Zack is well liked in the room and finally and most importantly Tippett looks like Treat Williams from the eyebrows up.

  130. NoReGretz says:

    Jaxon,

    This does seem like a better batch of prospects and incumbents than previous years / (previous decades?) I’m wondering if this is a genuine sign of better things to come for our Oilers (whether this year or in 3-5), or whether this is what it’s SUPPOSED to look like. Is this what a training camp group looks like for average teams, or is this what an up and coming group looks like?

  131. NoReGretz says:

    Jaxon:
    So many interesting prospects to watch in main camp:
    G: Rodrique, Skinner, Wells, Starrett
    LD: Samorukov, Jones, Lagesson
    RD: Bouchard, Bear, Persson, Day
    C: McLeod, Marody,Hebig, Haas
    LW: Benson, Nyygard
    RW: Lavoie, Maksimov, Yamamoto, Safin

    Meant to quote Jaxon so you all knew what I was referring to there…

  132. godot10 says:

    SwedishPoster:
    A couple of notes after watching the interviews from the start of camp; Draisaitl has a good hockey eye both on and off the ice, career ending injury aside I’d bet he’s efficient up to his late 30s at least and them goes straight to coaching, Klefbom has been reading the lowetide comment section and thinks Godot is deciding the pairings this season, McDavid is so tired of questions about his knee, it’s easy to see why the new sober Zack is well liked in the room and finally and most importantly Tippett looks like Treat Williams from the eyebrows up.

    I share my thoughts. Will Klef share his abs?

  133. duct tape and foil says:

    Guys who are Yamamoto size regularly need extra AHL time to work out how to succeed at their size against men. I was expecting at least 2 years in the NHL for Yamamoto without injury issues, so no need for concern. Let him force his way onto the roster this year or next.

  134. PokeCheck says:

    godot10: I share my thoughts.Will Klef share his abs?

    I imagine that LT’s saving that photo for when we reach the prophesized “balanced” thingy.

  135. Georgexs says:

    LT’s Saturday post was on Benson.

    Benson is a second round pick. If he plays in the NHL this season, he’ll be making his NHL debut in his draft+4. I looked for comparable players on those two attributes to determine a reasonable expectation for Benson’s numbers this season.

    WG had also looked into Benson’s RE. He’d focused on Benson’s points per game in the AHL in his 20th year. He found other players who’d scored near Benson’s rate in the AHL in their 20th year and used their NHL and AHL results in their 21st year to come up with his expectation for Benson.

    Here’s what he had to say about my approach:

    “Why would his draft slot matter in regards to what he may do next year?

    His drafts slot was an opinion on his play 4 years ago.

    I don’t think that’s data that is worth using to predict as this time.

    It’s interesting to look at, but I don’t think it has a lot of value.”

    And here’s what frjohnk had to say later on:

    “This is all fine if one is looking at a draft prospect when they are first drafted to see what their chances are.

    But the further away you get from the draft, where a prospect is drafted matters less and what they have done lately matters more.Why? Because prospect development does not happen in a straight line.As we follow the prospects, up arrows, down arrows and all that stuff, it matters when following the prospects

    This is why one needs to look at prospects in isolation the further away one gets from the draft.”

    I asked them both: How well do AHL results predict NHL results?

    Not getting an answer, I downloaded the AHL regular season scoring data from 05-06 to 18-19.

    WG looked at a player’s AHL scoring in his 20th year to project NHL performance in his 21st year. He restricted his sample to players who played at least 30 games in the AHL in their 20th year. And he also looked at AHL results for 06-07 forward.

    I applied those filters and got a list of 242 forwards who met WG’s criteria AND played in the NHL in their 21st year. To keep things simple and to be able to present results that are easy to interpret, I stuck with linear models.

    So… how well do AHL results predict NHL performance?

    Correlation between AHL PPG in 20th year and the following NHL stats in 21st year:

    – PPG: 0.38
    – GP: 0.38
    – Points: 0.46

    As you can see, the relationships are weak. We learn something about the player’s expected NHL numbers by knowing his previous year’s AHL’s numbers. But our forecasts will be very uncertain.

    Now, let’s investigate the idea that draft slot stops mattering after the player collects experience and puts up numbers in development leagues after he’s been drafted.

    Let’s see how well can we model the player’s 21 year old NHL results by ignoring his development league results and, instead, looking at his draft slot and whether he’s making his debut in the NHL. I used a multiple linear model with the following parameters:

    is_top_5: 1 – if the player was selected in the first 5 picks of the first round; 0 – otherwise
    is_6_to_10: 1 – if the player selected in picks 6 to 10; 0 – otherwise
    is_11_to_20: 1 – if the player selected in picks 11 to 20; 0 – otherwise
    is_debut: 1 – if players has played 0 NHL games prior to his 21st year; 0 – otherwise

    Why this setup?

    I know that draft value (using career points or points per game) declines sort of logarithmically when you look at forward picks in the first round, sharply over the first 5 picks, less sharply for the next 5, even less for the next 10. If the career results suggest these distinctions among players taken at different slots in the draft, why shouldn’t those distinctions exist at the very start of players’ careers? I didn’t subdivide further than this, even though career results suggest there are identifiable tiers in each subsequent round. Reasoning here is that those distinctions are less sharp and may start to appear as careers progress rather than at the very start.

    The is_debut variable may have value because teams may be more conservative in their deployment of players who’ve never played in the NHL prior to the season. I thought teams may play these guys for fewer games at the NHL level, either calling them up later or sending them down earlier.

    Here are the multiple R (correlation) results for this model:

    – PPG: 0.34
    – GP: 0.41
    – Points: 0.48

    As you can see, these results aren’t out of line with the earlier ones.

    Which means that just knowing a player’s draft slot and prior NHL experience, and ignoring the player’s recent performance in the AHL, I can model the player’s expected performance in the NHL (in his 21st year) about as well as if I knew his recent up and down arrows.

    Isn’t that something?

    Now, let’s combine the two approaches, ie. draft slot, prior NHL experience on the one hand; recent AHL performance on the other. How well does the combined model do?

    – PPG: 0.45
    – GP: 0.47
    – Points: 0.56

    Even better.

    So, using up arrows and down arrows along with my “Draft slot may be destiny” theory, we get significantly better results than if we use either in isolation. They carry useful, non-redundant information when it comes to forecasting a young player’s expected numbers in the NHL.

    (As for Benson, the last model has him at 33 GP, 15 points, 0.37 PPG.)

  136. Jaxon says:

    McSorley33: I hope so.

    Because some of the above were not very noticeable against what many
    consider to be the worst prospect pool in the NHL. ( Calgary)

    I don’t put a lot of stock in development and rookie camp performance. You’d like them to dominate, but I think sometimes your best and most useful players thrive within good systems play and get frustrated and lost in the chaotic play that can result in a bunch of rookies being thrown together.

  137. OriginalPouzar says:

    Puljujarvi – no points and 2 shots in just under 15 min of ice in Karpat’s first regular season, non CHL, game.

  138. OriginalPouzar says:

    ashley:
    Is Yamamoto another first round whiff?This is the real story of Oiler under performance.They badly needed more from first and second round picks in the past 6-7 years to support these CMD years.Also, traded picks put a lot of pressure on the picks that remained.

    He is a 22nd overall pick in his second year pro.

    What about his time in the AHL last year would lead you to believe he is a first round whiff?

    For those that watched him play, it was fairly clear that he was performing as a high end AHL player before the wrist injury.

    The only concerned based on last year is injury.

    Here is hoping he gets to start the season on time in the Bake because, if he does, I have little doubt he’ll be right around a PPG.

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kmart:
    When’s the last time this team has had this many depth forwards that could crack the roster, but also be cut?I’m so used to going in to the season just thinking, well, the kids are on the roster, hope they’re good!

    Nygard, Granlund, Benson, Jurco, Marody, Archibald, Gambardela, Cave, Haas, Currie, Sheahan…. I mean, there’s just no possible way this team’s bottom six doesn’t see a noticeable bump relative to last season.

    11 bottom six forwards essentially competing for 2-3 spots.

    I’m not sure you can say that any of these guys are 100% to make the lineup. Anyone on a 1 year contract can be waived/traded.

    Sheahan and Archibald look to be locks… but I’m not convinced that they are both on the roster by the end of November. I mean, even Granlund at 1.3M isn’t an absolute lock for time beyond November.

    Also, Caleb Jones is definitely the real deal and I’m buying him leap frogging Kris Russell on the left side by New Year’s.He just looked so ready last season.

    Whether a player gets traded during the season, I’m going to assume any newly signed player won’t be traded prior to it starts and I say that Archibald, Sheahan and Granlund are 100% locks for the roster which leaves 8 players for 5 spots (including the two extra forwards).

    I would actually call in 9 players for 6 spots as Chiasson should be in the group and there are 3 bottom 6 spots, 2 pressbox spots and 1 top six spot.

    Cave is not an NHL player.

    Currie is not an NHL player.

    Joe G. i could see in a 3rd line role but both Nygard and Haas will get a shot before he does.

  140. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: He is a 22nd overall pick in his second year pro.

    What about his time in the AHL last year would lead you to believe he is a first round whiff?

    For those that watched him play, it was fairly clear that he was performing as a high end AHL player before the wrist injury.

    The only concerned based on last year is injury.

    Here is hoping he gets to start the season on time in the Bake because, if he does, I have little doubt he’ll be right around a PPG.

    And I have little doubt injuries will be a problem once again for KY. For some reason, he brings out the “beer league” mentality in quite a few opposing AHL players.

  141. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack: Of all the players chosen after Yamamoto in the draft, 1 player has played more NHL Games, Jokaharju (Chicago) ….So perhaps he is not a whiff, but tracking similiar to the rest of his peers …

    Very few players chosen outside the Top 20play in Draft +1 or Draft +2 ….Some do and would flat out be the exception as it takes the ones who end up making it years to crack an NHLlineup and the majority drafted will never be full time NHL players ..

    I remain convinced that the organization giving Yamamoto NHL games in his draft plus 1 and draft plus 2 years gave a large section of the fanbase unrealistic expectations with respect to his development time line.

    This play hasn’t had a chance to develop in the AHL yet – the org didn’t allow him to start with the team last year and he started his AHL career on the third line. He started to drive scoring chances with Espositto and Vesel before finally being moved up and then started to show elite AHL player when he got hurt.

  142. defmn says:

    Bob McKenzie
    ‏Verified account @TSNBobMcKenzie
    5m5 minutes ago

    Sounds like PHI and RFA D Ivan Provorov have agreed to terms on a six year contract.

  143. Scungilli Slushy says:

    The Oilers have for years had too many play makers and too few scorers.

    Holland resigns Chiasson who is a shooter. Gets Neal. The Euro guys s ore as much as assist. He sees it.

    Benson suits a shooting centre. Maybe he becomes trade bait if he blossoms simply in that unless Leon plays middle he’s not a great Oiler fit.

  144. OriginalPouzar says:

    DecidedlySkepticalFan: I’m thinking more like two years … right now he is a whi.

    How can he be a whiff when there shouldn’t have been any expectation of NHL games at this point and his performance outside the NHL have been right in line with his draft pedigree?

  145. defmn says:

    What does this do to Nurse’s next contract?

    Elliotte Friedman
    ‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC
    9m9 minutes ago

    Provorov 6×6.75 in PHI

  146. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull: They have a bunch of players coming off the books, true, but those players need to be replaced by much better players, who strangely enough, cost more money.

    Being sloppy with the cap has got us here.In an ideal world, there’ll be just enough prospects that are good enough to be counted as value contracts, ie they play at the same level or higher than an older player that demands more salary.

    Throwing money at Nurse because, “hey, we got $25Mill, y’all” isn’t wise.Watching how the new contracts seem to be structured and learning from it is.

    That totally misinterprets the context of the question and my response.

    The question was the ability to re-sign Nurse now and be in compliance with the CBA vis-a-vis next season’s cap.

    The answer was yes given how much money comes off the books.

    I have been very clear that when I speak of next year’s off-season, I consider $18M of cap space for 12 players – I include apx $7M for Nurse because his history shows he could be “Marner lite” in his “demands”.

    In no way did I imply nor should you infer “throwing money at Nurse” or “being sloppy” from my post.

    If Nurse was willing to sign the JM contract today, it should be done right away – he will likely be more so that is “not being sloppy” nor ‘throwing money” at him.

  147. Professor Q says:

    I actually really like the new alternate jerseys, despite them being a copy of the Sabres (gold replaced by orange).

  148. McNuge93 says:

    PinkSocks: About a ~$1m of an overpay at the time, Draisaitl sitting at $8.5m is great value and I’m sure glad the cap was not in the same situation then as it is today.

    Laine, Connor and Point are going to have to take lower AAVs to play this season.

    Marner & his dad turning down $11m is disgraceful and he deserves what he gets from Leaf fans.

    Vancouver is up shit creek with their cap and Boeser.Makes Roussel and Beagle signings last season look like even bigger mistakes.Linden was right to gtfo of there.

    I’m glad Tkachuk is still unsigned, I hope the Flames give him a boatload of money.

    Sakic won’t like it but he has plenty of money, so Rantanen is the only guy who could actually get a bit more than his market value.

    I agree some of them RFAs will be signing for less than expected but it will be at shorter term. If that story is true that the Jets offered sub $6 mil to Laine then that’s truly a slap in the face to the, player. They will not keep him for long. Some team with cap space should offer sheet him.

    Here’s a fun little scenario. Flames only have about $5 mil in cap and still haven’t signed Tkachuk. Rumours are they have been trying to trade Brodie. So just when rosters are set for the season Ottawa comes in with an offer sheet at say $8.5 mil. Kind of leaves the Flames in a tight spot.

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer:

    I also reviewed Persson’s highlights again and if he can bring that kind of play to the PP Bouchard will be in AHL for sure .. which is a good thing. Trying to find SOME optimism here but it is still difficult when I look at this lineup..

    He’s the “brand new” addition that I am interested in seeing the most. His ability to handle the NHL at 5 on 5, even 3rd pairing, is big for the organization.

    I’m confident his PP acumen will translate, at least to some extent, and it would help the organization decision makers forget about Bouchard until at least 2020.

    If he could be a legit 2RD at the NHL, allowing Benning to play 3RD (and/or moved in due course), that would be massive.

  150. Jaxon says:

    Georgexs:
    LT’s Saturday post was on Benson.

    Benson is a second round pick. If he plays in the NHL this season, he’ll be making his NHL debut in his draft+4. I looked for comparable players on those two attributes to determine a reasonable expectation for Benson’s numbers this season.

    WG had also looked into Benson’s RE. He’d focused on Benson’s points per game in the AHL in his 20th year. He found other players who’d scored near Benson’s rate in the AHL in their 20th year and used their NHL and AHL results in their 21st year to come up with his expectation for Benson.

    Here’s what he had to say about my approach:

    “Why would his draft slot matter in regards to what he may do next year?

    His drafts slot was an opinion on his play 4 years ago.

    I don’t think that’s data that is worth using to predict as this time.

    It’s interesting to look at, but I don’t think it has a lot of value.”

    And here’s what frjohnk had to say later on:

    “This is all fine if one is looking at a draft prospect when they are first drafted to see what their chances are.

    But the further away you get from the draft, where a prospect is drafted matters less and what they have done lately matters more.Why? Because prospect development does not happen in a straight line.As we follow the prospects, up arrows, down arrows and all that stuff, it matters when following the prospects

    This is why one needs to look at prospects in isolation the further away one gets from the draft.”

    I asked them both: How well do AHL results predict NHL results?

    Not getting an answer, I downloaded the AHL regular season scoring data from 05-06 to 18-19.

    WG looked at a player’s AHL scoring in his 20th year to project NHL performance in his 21st year. He restricted his sample to players who played at least 30 games in the AHL in their 20th year. And he also looked at AHL results for 06-07 forward.

    I applied those filters and got a list of 242 forwards who met WG’s criteria AND played in the NHL in their 21st year. To keep things simple and to be able to present results that are easy to interpret, I stuck with linear models.

    So… how well do AHL results predict NHL performance?

    Correlation between AHL PPG in 20th year and the following NHL stats in 21st year:

    – PPG: 0.38
    – GP: 0.38
    – Points: 0.46

    As you can see, the relationships are weak. We learn something about the player’s expected NHL numbers by knowing his previous year’s AHL’s numbers. But our forecasts will be very uncertain.

    Now, let’s investigate the idea that draft slot stops mattering after the player collects experience and puts up numbers in development leagues after he’s been drafted.

    Let’s see how well can we model the player’s 21 year old NHL results by ignoring his development league results and, instead, looking at his draft slot and whether he’s making his debut in the NHL. I used a multiple linear model with the following parameters:

    is_top_5: 1 – if the player was selected in the first 5 picks of the first round; 0 – otherwise
    is_6_to_10: 1 – if the player selected in picks 6 to 10; 0 – otherwise
    is_11_to_20: 1 – if the player selected in picks 11 to 20; 0 – otherwise
    is_debut: 1 – if players has played 0 NHL games prior to his 21st year; 0 – otherwise

    Why this setup?

    I know that draft value (using career points or points per game) declines sort of logarithmically when you look at forward picks in the first round, sharply over the first 5 picks, less sharply for the next 5, even less for the next 10. If the career results suggest these distinctions among players taken at different slots in the draft, why shouldn’t those distinctions exist at the very start of players’ careers? I didn’t subdivide further than this, even though career results suggest there are identifiable tiers in each subsequent round. Reasoning here is that those distinctions are less sharp and may start to appear as careers progress rather than at the very start.

    The is_debut variable may have value because teams may be more conservative in their deployment of players who’ve never played in the NHL prior to the season. I thought teams may play these guys for fewer games at the NHL level, either calling them up later or sending them down earlier.

    Here are the multiple R (correlation) results for this model:

    – PPG: 0.34
    – GP: 0.41
    – Points: 0.48

    As you can see, these results aren’t out of line with the earlier ones.

    Which means that just knowing a player’s draft slot and prior NHL experience, and ignoring the player’s recent performance in the AHL, I can model the player’s expected performance in the NHL (in his 21st year) about as well as if I knew his recent up and down arrows.

    Isn’t that something?

    Now, let’s combine the two approaches, ie. draft slot, prior NHL experience on the one hand; recent AHL performance on the other. How well does the combined model do?

    – PPG: 0.45
    – GP: 0.47
    – Points: 0.56

    Even better.

    So, using up arrows and down arrows along with my “Draft slot may be destiny” theory, we get significantly better results than if we use either in isolation. They carry useful, non-redundant information when it comes to forecasting a young player’s expected numbers in the NHL.

    (As for Benson, the last model has him at 33 GP, 15 points, 0.37 PPG.)

    I’m not a statistician, but I do like playing with numbers and spreadsheets. So maybe I don’t understand some of your methods and they went over my head. A few thoughts that came up while reading your post:

    1. You didn’t use the same filter as WG. He used only players within 10% scoring rate of Benson and thus got only 28 players compared to your 242. Using all 242 will not give the same result, or as concise results. Woodguy used a very specific level of skill (within 10% of .97 pts/gp) at a very specific age (20 yrs). Your sample will have a few elite players who scored at a higher level (it’s a very small sample), and about 200 players who scored less, many who scored much less and made it to the NHL as pluggers, punchers, and bench warmers. Those players will drastically skew the results lower.

    2. Another thing about using draft position for any quantitative analysis is that draft position is one team’s opinion about how good a player will be in the future and is often pushed up or down by as much as 20 spots based on team needs, depth at that position in the draft, how good that year’s draft was, team’s reaching on picks, players falling based on sometimes unfounded worries about character, idiotic scouting departments, players drafted for size (coke machine fetish of past Oilers scouting depts), players drafted lower because of where they were born. There are so many factors that push players up or down the rankings that they should never be used as a quantitative instrument for future predictions. I would add that they really shouldn’t even be used in their draft summer to predict the future for the reasons stated above. I’m sure there are writers like Jeremy Davis (NextGen Hockey) and Brad MacPherson (Blue Bullet Report, who also uses draft position to a certain extent) who predict future performance much better than any draft position could ever do.

    3. Prior NHL experience does make sense though, but the problem with that is that it is usually in extremely small sample sizes and subject to early season easy competition, players going on heaters that didn’t last, players given lots of rope early on with skilled linemates, etc. Why did you include it? Did it make your numbers work better? If your trying to prove that you can determine success using draft position, why the need to pull in another set of numbers?

    4. I’m not sure I understand what the numbers that your giving us say, except that they allow you to weed out some players that may not be as good in your samples and therefore come up with players that do better in the NHL and thus have a higher Percentage correlation of points in the NHL to points in the AHL. Better players keep more of their production when transferring from one league to the next. Lower players barely keep any. Their roles change as they move up to higher leagues. So anything that decreases your sample size to include better players (draft position, previous NHL experience) is going to have a higher correlation.

    As mentioned, I’m fully open to being corrected on these observations.

  151. OriginalPouzar says:

    ScungilliSlushy:
    LT you probably have the roster surrounded. I’d rather see Granlund or Nygard with Nuge and Neal than Chiasson. Neal at his preferred RW.

    Aside from Persson being able to handle 5 on 5 minutes, another key to the early season, to me, is finding someone to be a legit 2LW, on merit, bumping Chiasson out of the top 6 and Neal to the right side – Neal scoring goals as a top 6 winger is essential and, if he’s most comfortable on the right with a left shot center, well, lets try our ass off to get him there.

    Who is that 2LW?

    Benson – he’d be “optimal” if he was there on merit, as a 40 point guy.

    Nygard – GMs fav

    Jurco – wildcard

    Gagner – may be the “best” option

    Khaira – more effective in bottom 6

    Granlund – maybe there is something there

  152. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr: You are correct. I do believe that the lucic/ Neal deal was in the works at the time. By signing Chiasson it gave them cover if Neal wasn’t able to rebound. This in turn made the Neal deal less of a risk.

    Holland has stated it was not in works for a long time – kinda happened in the week or so before the trigger was pulled.

  153. OriginalPouzar says:

    KingerOilredux:
    FUN FACT:

    – Nuge, the most tenured Oiler has had 9 coaches, 3 GM’s: wow!!!I thought I read that wrong

    This is not right – 7 head coaches.

  154. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: How can he be a whiff when there shouldn’t have been any expectation of NHL games at this point and his performance outside the NHL have been right in line with his draft pedigree?

    Hey, don’t blame me for your frustration … I wasn’t the one who drafted him.

  155. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is not right – 7 head coaches.

    Definitely more than 7. I count 8 :

    Renny Ralph Dallas nelson mact McClelland hitch Tippett

    And as someone pointed out 5 gm’s. : Tambo MacT Chia gretz Holland.

  156. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: This is not right – 7 head coaches.

    8 if you count MacTavish after Eakins before Nelson.

  157. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Aside from Persson being able to handle 5 on 5 minutes, another key to the early season, to me, is finding someone to be a legit 2LW, on merit, bumping Chiasson out of the top 6 and Neal to the right side – Neal scoring goals as a top 6 winger is essential and, if he’s most comfortable on the right with a left shot center, well, lets try our ass off to get him there.

    Who is that 2LW?

    Benson – he’d be “optimal” if he was there on merit, as a 40 point guy.

    Nygard – GMs fav

    Jurco – wildcard

    Gagner – may be the “best” option

    Khaira – more effective in bottom 6

    Granlund – maybe there is something there

    Benson – he’d be “optimal” if he was there on merit, as a 40 point guy. – AGREED

    Nygard – GMs fav – Maybe not favourite but the GM has some skin in that game for sure.

    Jurco – wildcard – This is throwing a former player a rope to see if he can run with it. It might pan out, it might not.

    Gagner – may be the “best” option – Although Gagner is more likely to play RW.

    Khaira – more effective in bottom 6 – I’m not so sure. Khaira’s underlying numbers with skill have been quite good. In Nugent-Hopkins’ recent interview he talks about how their games mesh well together and he hopes they get another chance to play together. That’s pretty encouraging verbal for Khaira. Maybe some coaches see the same potential.

    Granlund – maybe there is something there. AGREE

    Chiasson – Neal may push Chiasson out of 2RW, but that may just switch sides and put Chiassion at 2LW

    If you go by proven NHLers who might gain the trust of the coach I wonder if it might shake out something like this:
    Draisaitl – McDavid – Gagner
    Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – Neal
    Granlund – Sheahan – Kassian
    Jurco – Khaira – Archibald
    Nyygard/Haas

    The rest have to prove themselves during preseason to move up the lineup including Nyygard and Haas in their first time on N.American ice, and AHL stars Benson and Marody, and long shots like Yamamoto, Maksimov, and Lavoie.

    The lineup that would make everyone lose their shit:
    Draisaitl – McDavid – Lavoie
    Benson – Nugent-Hopkins – Maksimov
    Granlund – Marody – Neal
    Khaira – Gagner – Kassian
    Haas/Nyygard/Chiasson/Archibald/Jurco/Sheahan

    Although if this is the lineup it would mean that the youngsters lit it on fire all preseason. If that happened, maybe we’d all be ecstatic yet very, very apprehensive. I’m clearly trolling, but it’s fun to think about.

  158. Genjutsu says:

    Pouzar: *rubs hands*
    c-note donation to the site.

    Now we have to draw up terms.

    If only we had lawyer on the site….hmmmm

    How many lawyers does it take to populate an Oilers blog?

  159. OriginalPouzar says:

    DecidedlySkepticalFan: Hey, don’t blame me for your frustration … I wasn’t the one who drafted him.

    What an odd conversation – you are the one frustrated with his development it seems, not me.

    I’m just trying to have a conversation re: the “whif” but noone seems to be able to back it up.

  160. OriginalPouzar says:

    I alluded to this quote yesterday but want to discuss it again.

    On the assumption that Tippett will not healthy scratch the veteran shot blocking hard-nosed d-man on opening night in favor of two rookies (given his stated emphasis on GA being cut), how does the Persson/Jones deployment go?

    If Jones is #7, it sounds like he’ll head to the AHL instead.

    Will the same apply to Persson? I think Persson is almost assured an NHL job unless he’s awful in the exhibition season.

    —————–

    “Tipp (Dave Tippett) and I are looking forward to watching pre-season and seeing how it all shapes out. We’re going to carry seven and he (Bouchard) is not fighting for a seven spot. He’s fighting for a (top) six spot. My philosophy always is when you’re putting the roster together, I’ll say to the head coach: ‘You’re playing tomorrow, tell me who’s in the lineup.’

    “If a young player isn’t in the lineup, he’s going to the American League. If he is in the lineup, then we have a further conversation about where he fits. I’d rather make the call during the season to call the player up than to make the call during the season to send the player down. I think it’s easier for their mind and mentality to be working their way up than down. Young players have to take a job from a veteran.” For context, the whole interview is here.

  161. Decidedly Skeptical Fan says:

    OriginalPouzar: What an odd conversation – you are the one frustrated with his development it seems, not me.

    I’m just trying to have a conversation re: the “whif” but noone seems to be able to back it up.

    I’m not frustrated in his development in the least … KY is right on schedule with the whi and only needs a couple more years after this one to pick up the additional f’s.

  162. Jaxon says:

    OriginalPouzar: Yes, some offensive numbers are zoomed by McDavid, however, Morrissey played over 90% of his 5 on 5 minutes with Trouba – he played 81 minutes without him. That is more substantial.

    Good point OP

    Regarding zooming, though…

    Morrisey zoomers:
    Wheeler – 92
    Scheifele – 86
    Connor – 75
    Ehlers – 73
    Little – 62
    Laine – 62
    Trouba – 46
    Morrisey – 41
    Top 6 Forwards = 450 pts

    Nurse Zoomers?
    McDavid – 151
    Draisaitl – 115
    Nugent-Hopkins – 69
    Nurse – 57
    Kassian – 44
    Lucic – 44
    Maroon/Khaira tie – 33
    Russell – 36
    Top 6 Forwards = 456 pts

    6 more points from top 6 forwards, 10 less points from main D partner. I don’t think there is any substantial difference in zooming.

  163. Material Elvis says:

    hunter1909:
    KY is hilarious.

    Miniature player bamboozles the Lowe+MacT Oilers into wasting a 1st on drafting him…

    Easy peasy as Lowe+MacT are proven fools…

    So now, 2 years later Oilers have this now injured dwarfto deal with…

    End of rant.

    Is this a rant or just satire? He was drafted by the Chiarelli regime; they took him out for dinner the night before draft. MacT and Lowe were not making those decisions in 2017.

  164. OriginalPouzar says:

    My preference would be:

    Nurse/Larsson

    Klefbom/Benning

    Lagesson/Persson

    Russell

    I love my some Willie to start with but, given Persson’s skill-set I think he’s a better fit than Jones.

    I think there is a place for Russell in the lineup but he’s like Chiasson, where?

    One of Jones or Lagesson need to be on the team and, as per Holland, not sitting.

    I think we’ll see:

    Nurse/Larson

    Klefbom/Benning

    Russell/Persson

  165. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I alluded to this quote yesterday but want to discuss it again.

    On the assumption that Tippett will not healthy scratch the veteran shot blocking hard-nosed d-man on opening night in favor of two rookies (given his stated emphasis on GA being cut), how does the Persson/Jones deployment go?

    If Jones is #7, it sounds like he’ll head to the AHL instead.

    Will the same apply to Persson?I think Persson is almost assured an NHL job unless he’s awful in the exhibition season.

    —————–

    “Tipp (Dave Tippett) and I are looking forward to watching pre-season and seeing how it all shapes out. We’re going to carry seven and he (Bouchard) is not fighting for a seven spot. He’s fighting for a (top) six spot. My philosophy always is when you’re putting the roster together, I’ll say to the head coach: ‘You’re playing tomorrow, tell me who’s in the lineup.’

    “If a young player isn’t in the lineup, he’s going to the American League. If he is in the lineup, then we have a further conversation about where he fits. I’d rather make the call during the season to call the player up than to make the call during the season to send the player down. I think it’s easier for their mind and mentality to be working their way up than down. Young players have to take a job from a veteran.” For context, the whole interview is here.

    The system Tip and Play use is right up Russell’s saddle. It might make it plenty hard to steal that dusty cowboy’s job.

    Being older it may be Willy who rides pine until injuries, unless they use Manning as the bench warmer.

  166. Glovjuice says:

    Is there anybody out there?

    Just nod if you can hear me.

    One of these days I’m going to cut you into little pieces.

    Connor’s ppg over career is right up there after only the greats (and in different times). The only ‘better’ players on the list are Wayne, Mario, and Orr.

  167. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I alluded to this quote yesterday but want to discuss it again.

    On the assumption that Tippett will not healthy scratch the veteran shot blocking hard-nosed d-man on opening night in favor of two rookies (given his stated emphasis on GA being cut), how does the Persson/Jones deployment go?

    If Jones is #7, it sounds like he’ll head to the AHL instead.

    Will the same apply to Persson?I think Persson is almost assured an NHL job unless he’s awful in the exhibition season.

    —————–

    “Tipp (Dave Tippett) and I are looking forward to watching pre-season and seeing how it all shapes out. We’re going to carry seven and he (Bouchard) is not fighting for a seven spot. He’s fighting for a (top) six spot. My philosophy always is when you’re putting the roster together, I’ll say to the head coach: ‘You’re playing tomorrow, tell me who’s in the lineup.’

    “If a young player isn’t in the lineup, he’s going to the American League. If he is in the lineup, then we have a further conversation about where he fits. I’d rather make the call during the season to call the player up than to make the call during the season to send the player down. I think it’s easier for their mind and mentality to be working their way up than down. Young players have to take a job from a veteran.” For context, the whole interview is here.

    Just because they agree with you doesn’t make you right.😀

  168. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: That totally misinterprets the context of the question and my response.

    The question was the ability to re-sign Nurse now and be in compliance with the CBA vis-a-vis next season’s cap.

    The answer was yes given how much money comes off the books.

    I have been very clear that when I speak of next year’s off-season, I consider $18M of cap space for 12 players – I include apx $7M for Nurse because his history shows he could be “Marner lite” in his “demands”.

    In no way did I imply nor should you infer “throwing money at Nurse” or “being sloppy” from my post.

    If Nurse was willing to sign the JM contract today, it should be done right away – he will likely be more so that is “not being sloppy” nor ‘throwing money” at him.

    History shows he could be Marner-lite in his demands? Don’t even know where to start with that gem.

    What history shows that an above average young D can use the career season of one the league’s best wingers as a measuring stick? One that reportedly turned down $11.5M?

    Once again you have trouble following an argument through to it’s conclusion.

    Accepting we want to sign Nurse, we still have to replace the players that left with better, more highly paid ones

    So yes, I found your $25M comment glib, this I took you to mean money wasn’t going to be a problem.

  169. Pandaup says:

    While draft position is useful for prediction of NHL success, it does not apply to Benson.
    Based on talent and ability, he was in the top 10, perhaps top 5, in his draft year.
    He dropped out of the first round because of serial injuries.
    This made him a gamble. The Oilers rolled the dice.
    Benson is either a star forward, or a bust. All depending on his health.
    So far, so good. As for the rest, we shall see.
    Based on his “real” pedigree, if he has a strong camp, he should get an NHL shot.

  170. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    My preference would be:

    Nurse/Larsson

    Klefbom/Benning

    Lagesson/Persson

    Russell

    I love my some Willie to start with but, given Persson’s skill-set I think he’s a better fit than Jones.

    I think there is a place for Russell in the lineup but he’s like Chiasson, where?

    One of Jones or Lagesson need to be on the team and, as per Holland, not sitting.

    I think we’ll see:

    Nurse/Larson

    Klefbom/Benning

    Russell/Persson

    I’m just catching up on some of the interviews from today. Kassian’s was cool, I gained some more respect. McDavid – hates everyone, so intense (in a good way, mostly). Just play, just win.

    Anyway, the reason I’m replying to your post is Klefbom’s interview. He was asked who he figured he’d end up playing with given Nurse-Larsson is a thing. He literally only talked about Persson, a lot. He’s super excited to play with Persson and seems to expect it. Talked about how he might be able to adapt his game to help Persson be the player he can be. Also, Tippett was asked directly about whether Benning had the inside track at being Klefbom’s partner and he was like “we’ll see how it plays out”.

    Zero verbal from the team in support of Benning. And LT was right penciling Persson in at 2RD. I’ve been expecting/hoping that Benning gets more of a shot too, but it sure doesn’t sound like he’s entering camp as a management thinks can take another step.

  171. SwedishPoster says:

    Broberg’s head coach had some serious praise for Broberg in an article today saying he’s pretty much the most talented D he’s played or worked with in his career, the only guy he’s been around who was at a similar level is Fredrik Olausson who he played with early in Olausson’s career.
    He thinks Broberg ends up one of sweden’s next great D. Also praising his willingness to get better and understanding what it takes to get to the highest level.
    This is a coach who’s either played or coached at the pro level for 40 years, won 5 swedish league titels and played 214 games with the swedish NT so that’s some praise. Don’t think we have to worry too much about Philip getting ice time…

    As a sidenote the continous praising of Broberg’s work ethic, attitude, willingness to improve, understanding of what it takes and so on from coaches, players, people around him reminds me of what you kept hearing about McDavid. A lot of prospects get positive remarks on these things, or they wouldn’t be elite talents, but this is at a different level. Like with Connor it’s almost as people are saying these things with their jaw on the ground. Not saying Broberg is near McDavid’s talent level on the ice but the ambition to always strive to be better seems similar.

  172. ArmchairGM says:

    defmn:
    What does this do to Nurse’s next contract?

    Elliotte Friedman
    ‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC
    9m9 minutes ago

    Provorov 6×6.75 in PHI

    More proof against the $7-8M some Oilers fans think Nurse will get.

  173. ArmchairGM says:

    Glovjuice:
    Is there anybody out there?

    Just nod if you can hear me.

    One of these days I’m going to cut you into little pieces.

    Connor’s ppg over career is right up there after only the greats (and in different times). The only ‘better’ players on the list are Wayne, Mario, and Orr.

    So you read my post from the other day then? I’m not sure why you don’t think Bossy is better as his 1.50 career P/GP is probably untouchable by McDavid. He was one of the best goal-scorer’s ever.

  174. ArmchairGM says:

    SwedishPoster: swedish league titels

    Must be a Swedish thing!

  175. SwedishPoster says:

    ArmchairGM: Must be a Swedish thing!

    Ha! We love ’em titels. My phone broke down a few months ago and my sister in law gave me her iPhone until I get around getting a new phone, first time with an iPhone and I absolutely hate the software on it. Among other things the autocorrect is dreadful and non-intuitive. But overall a bunch of programs are just not well thought out. I thought once I got used to it I’d come around, but nah, we’re not friends. My wife got so sick of me complaining about it that I’m forbidden to mention it.

    Just there autocorrect wanted it to say ”My wife got some dick of me”. Maybe it just has a filthy processor…

  176. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: Aside from Persson being able to handle 5 on 5 minutes, another key to the early season, to me, is finding someone to be a legit 2LW, on merit, bumping Chiasson out of the top 6 and Neal to the right side – Neal scoring goals as a top 6 winger is essential and, if he’s most comfortable on the right with a left shot center, well, lets try our ass off to get him there.

    Who is that 2LW?

    Benson – he’d be “optimal” if he was there on merit, as a 40 point guy.

    Nygard – GMs fav

    Jurco – wildcard

    Gagner – may be the “best” option

    Khaira – more effective in bottom 6

    Granlund – maybe there is something there

    More effective in bottom 6?
    What does that even mean?
    Isn’t that what you said about Kassian? Seems to me you were adamant that he shouldn’t play higher than 4th line at this time last year. You sure seem to want to pigeonhole players into specific spots.
    Bottom line is that Khaira should get a shot at 2LW. And if he’s the best option we got, then he should get the job.

  177. ArmchairGM says:

    SwedishPoster: Ha! We love ’em titels. My phone broke down a few months ago and my sister in law gave me her iPhone until I get around getting a new phone, first time with an iPhone and I absolutely hate the software on it. Among other things the autocorrect is dreadful and non-intuitive. But overall a bunch of programs are just not well thought out. I thought once I got used to it I’d come around, but nah, we’re not friends. My wife got so sick of me complaining about it that I’m forbidden to mention it.

    Just there autocorrect wanted it to say ”My wife got some dick of me”. Maybe it just has a filthy processor…

    😀

    Not a fan of ios either.

  178. ArmchairGM says:

    Probably been mentioned already, but 6 of Edmonton’s top prospects made Pronman’s top-124 list:

    https://theathletic.com/1186105/2019/09/12/pronman-top-123-nhl-prospects-entering-the-2019-20-season/

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    McDavid on the list to skate in the first group today.

    He was not limited in camp type drills over the last while and there isn’t any reason to expect him not to be a full participant at camp.

  180. Jaxon says:

    Jaxon: If you go by proven NHLers who might gain the trust of the coach I wonder if it might shake out something like this:
    Draisaitl – McDavid – Gagner
    Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – Neal
    Granlund – Sheahan – Kassian
    Jurco – Khaira – Archibald
    Nyygard/Haas

    The rest have to prove themselves during preseason to move up the lineup including Nyygard and Haas in their first time on N.American ice, and AHL stars Benson and Marody, and long shots like Yamamoto, Maksimov, and Lavoie.

    I think Jurco and Archibald are in the biggest danger of being replaced on the roster. First, by Holland acquisitions Nygard and Haas, and then by AHL Stars Benson and Marody. I think the rest are pretty safe and would consider it a competition between those 6 players for two spots on the roster and two in the press box.

    Unless Benson steals a spot in the top 6, I think he should start in Bakersfield. If Marody doesn’t grab #3 or #4C, he too should start in Bakersfield. If Nygard and Haas aren’t in the starting lineup they should probably be sent down as well for their adjustment to N. American hockey.

    So to conclude on my train of thought: Benson, Marody, Nygard, and Haas are competing for 2 spots in the lineup and Benson’s spot should be in the top 6 or not at all, and Jurco and Archibald should be on the roster but likely in the press box most nights.

    I think the fact that Nugent-Hopkins mentioned he would like time with Khaira is a pretty big deal and something a coach very well might listen to and give him a real opportunity. If Khaira is prepared and grabs that spot, then Benson (and probably Marody) should start in Bakersfield and Nygard and Haas make the opening night roster.

    Draisaitl – McDavid – Gagner
    Khaira – Nugent-Hopkins – Neal
    Granlund – Sheahan – Chiasson
    Nygard – Haas – Kassian
    Jurco/Archibald

  181. OriginalPouzar says:

    Per Rishaug:

    Group A

    Koskinen, S. Starrett, Wells

    Bear, Benning, Desharnais, Klefbom, Lowe, Manning, Persson, K. Russell

    Archibald, Benson, Currie, Draisaitl, Esposito, Gambardella, Kassian, Khaira, Malone, McDavid, McLeod, Peluso, Safin, Sheahan, Yamamoto

    ——————————-

    Group B

    Rodrigue, Skinner, Smith

    Bouchard, Day, Jones, Kulevich, Lagesson, Larsson, Nurse, Samorukov

    Cave, Chiasson, Gagner, Granlund, Haas, Hebig, Jurco, Lavoie, Maksimov, Marody, Neal, Nugent-Hopkins, Nygard, P. Russell, B. Starrett, Vesey

  182. Pescador says:

    ArmchairGM: More proof against the $7-8M some Oilers fans think Nurse will get.

    Let’s be honest
    Ken Holland is the only reason why Nurse’s next contract will be less than $7M.
    Chiarelli or MacT would have started the negotiations north of 7

  183. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull: History shows he could be Marner-lite in his demands? Don’t even know where to start with that gem.

    What history shows that an above average young D can use the career season of one the league’s best wingers as a measuring stick? One that reportedly turned down $11.5M?

    Once again you have trouble following an argument through to it’s conclusion.

    Accepting we want to sign Nurse, we still have to replace the players that left with better, more highly paid ones

    So yes, I found your $25M comment glib, this I took you to mean money wasn’t going to be a problem.

    As I explained, that is NOT what I meant.

    I’ve been very clear that money is indeed an issue next off-season which is why a clean disposition of Russell is essential.

    My post was in response to a direct question about being able to re-sign Nurse now for term within the parameters of the CBA and, in that regard, there is no issue.

    Feel free to continue to mis-interpret my comments while disregarding context.

  184. OriginalPouzar says:

    jp: I’m just catching up on some of the interviews from today. Kassian’s was cool, I gained some more respect. McDavid – hates everyone, so intense (in a good way, mostly). Just play, just win.

    Anyway, the reason I’m replying to your post is Klefbom’s interview. He was asked who he figured he’d end up playing with given Nurse-Larsson is a thing. He literally only talked about Persson, a lot. He’s super excited to play with Persson and seems to expect it. Talked about how he might be able to adapt his game to help Persson be the player he can be. Also, Tippett was asked directly about whether Benning had the inside track at being Klefbom’s partner and he was like “we’ll see how it plays out”.

    Zero verbal from the team in support of Benning. And LT was right penciling Persson in at 2RD. I’ve been expecting/hoping that Benning gets more of a shot too, but it sure doesn’t sound like he’s entering camp as a management thinks can take another step.

    That’s fair enough (and I’m just, right this second, listening to yesterday’s player interviews – although I did know the substance of Klefbom’s).

    I am hopeful that that Persson is a legit NHL 2RD although I think its a big stretch at this point – that would be ideal so, yes, hopefully it plays out that way, I just can’t pencil in a 25 year old with zero NHL and zero NHL experience who was a teacher’s aid 3 year’s ago, in to the top 4. Hopefully he earns that job. Until I see him play in North America, I’ve just got to put Benning there.

  185. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: More proof against the $7-8M some Oilers fans think Nurse will get.

    What Nurse’s comparables are and what I think Nurse is going to demand are two different thing.

    I think he should come in between Morrissey and Proporov for term but I think he’s going to “demand” over $7M so won’t be signing in advance.

  186. Coiler says:

    Dallas D Man Honka has asked to be traded. Hasn’t been a happy camper for quite some time now.

    Right shot D. Finnish. Hasn’t lived up to his potential.

    Hmmm…

  187. godot10 says:

    OriginalPouzar: What Nurse’s comparables are and what I think Nurse is going to demand are two different thing.

    I think he should come in between Morrissey and Proporov for term but I think he’s going to “demand” over $7M so won’t be signing in advance.

    Provorov’s contract has 4 RFA years. Nurse’s will have 2 RFA years. If one imposes even a small discount for RFA years relative to UFA years, that would put Nurse over $7 million.

    Morrisey’s contract is the more solid comparable.

  188. godot10 says:

    Coiler:
    Dallas D Man Honka has asked to be traded. Hasn’t been a happy camper for quite some time now.

    Right shot D. Finnish. Hasn’t lived up to his potential.

    Hmmm…

    He is not any good. Ruff, Hitchcock, and now Montgomery/Nelson/Bowness have all come to the same conclusion. He could not beat out Taylor Fedun. He couldn’t crack a defense that was gutted by injlury last year.

  189. Jaxon says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Probably been mentioned already, but 6 of Edmonton’s top prospects made Pronman’s top-124 list:

    https://theathletic.com/1186105/2019/09/12/pronman-top-123-nhl-prospects-entering-the-2019-20-season/

    Also Konovalov was the only Oilers goalie to make Pronman’s top 28 goalie prospects at #22.

    https://theathletic.com/1189399/2019/09/13/pronman-top-goalie-prospects-entering-the-2019-20-season/

  190. Coiler says:

    godot10: He is not any good.Ruff, Hitchcock, and now Montgomery/Nelson/Bowness have all come to the same conclusion.He could not beat out Taylor Fedun.He couldn’t crack a defense that was gutted by injlury last year.

    Might be something in that Finnish water…

  191. Munny says:

    Jaxon: Khaira – more effective in bottom 6 – I’m not so sure. Khaira’s underlying numbers with skill have been quite good. In Nugent-Hopkins’ recent interview he talks about how their games mesh well together and he hopes they get another chance to play together. That’s pretty encouraging verbal for Khaira. Maybe some coaches see the same potential.

    When I saw Khaira, Pujo and Nuge together for the first time last year I thought they looked like a line. They ended up having some tough times together and the overalls weren’t the greatest but by eye it was a combo I think they should’ve been patient with.

  192. Munny says:

    Pescador: Let’s be honest

    What’s up with all these rules all of a sudden?

  193. Munny says:

    The trick with Nurse will be to get term. Tough because term is going to be the hardest part of the convo.

  194. Munny says:

    I would give Persson and Jones 5 games apiece in the first 10 games and then make a decision from there.

    I think a big part of this hiring though is adding talent for the power play. The org seems convinced they’ve added something material. Unlikely Persson sits till he proves he can’t play at EVs.

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