The Edmonton Oilers evened its record at 2-2-0 last night, with two strong periods and a six-goal barrage against the villains from Calgary. What did we learn? A lot, and not much, as it turned out.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions here.
- New Lowetide: Three players who helped their Oilers hopes and three who didn’t do enough to separate in Edmonton’s fourth preseason game
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Dreadful showing means several Oilers players are on the chopping block with cuts looming
- Jonathan Willis: How quickly must the Oilers’ top AHL prospects claim NHL jobs before they become suspect?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: McDavid and more: Five thoughts through the first week of Oilers camp
- Lowetide: Why Kailer Yamamoto’s delayed training camp may benefit his Oilers career
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Brandon Manning on how his contract is hurting him, proving his worth at camp and being a mentor
- Jonathan Willis: Four players who helped, three who hurt their Oilers hopes in Edmonton’s second preseason game
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How an offseason adding more pop in his stick and skates has James Neal primed for first Oilers season
- Lowetide: A big night for Oilers defencemen Joel Persson, William Lagesson and Evan Bouchard
- Lowetide: Preseason 2019-20: The Oilers’ journey to respectability begins
- Lowetide: Handicapping Oilers prospect progress: The development of Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and William Lagesson
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Eight key questions for the Oilers to solve at training camp
- Jonathan Willis: Predicting the winners of the Oilers’ top-six and top-nine forward jobs out of camp
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: In, out or on the bubble: Breaking down positional battles at Oilers camp
- New Lowetide: Evan Bouchard and the Calder Trophy: The Oilers’ pursuit of the elusive rookie award
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Alex Chiasson prepares to return to scoring form for Edmonton Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Kyle Brodziak defied the odds, and then the Oilers, to carve out a significant NHL career
- Lowetide: Can Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith stop enough pucks for the Oilers?
- Lowetide: Shutdown success by Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson is a key for the Oilers in 2019-20.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Even if he’s unsure about his return, Oilers’ Connor McDavid looks and sounds like his old self
- Lowetide: RE 19-20: How can the Oilers’ bottom six close the gap in goal differential?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Kailer Yamamoto and Tyler Benson address respective highs and lows as Oilers rookie camp begins
- Jonathan Willis: Riley Sheahan is a prudent signing by the Oilers in more ways than one
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ defensive hopes will rest on the new shutdown pair of Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: With Evan Bouchard as the headliner, here are the players to watch at Oilers rookie camp
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and the configuration of the Oilers second line
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s 2019-20: Pushing for 50 goals while Dave Tippett loads up the Oilers’ top line
- Lowetide: Estimating reasonable expectations for the 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers: A difficult journey
- Jonathan Willis: How much money will Darnell Nurse make on his next NHL contract?
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers coach Dave Tippett might have to take drastic action in order to find a second outscoring line in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
LINE 1 Joakim Nygard-Leon Draisaitl-Zack Kassian played 11:13 together (all numbers five-on-five) and went 10-3 Corsi, 5-0 shots, 1-0 goals and 4-1 high danger scoring chances (HDSC).
Joakim Nygard probably won an NHL job last night. He scored a goal, five shots and four HDSC’s according to NTS. His speed adds a look this team badly needs. Impressive game.
Leon Draisaitl had some cobwebs early (clouds in my coffee, clouds in my coffee) but when the big train got rolling it was clear the track time. Outstanding final 30 from a dynamite player.
Zack Kassian scored a wonderful goal (okay, Gillies was struggling) and picked up an assist as well. If Kassian has turned some kind of offensive corner at this point in his career, and could push 15-20 goals annually, he’s going to be richer in his 30’s than he was in his 20’s.
LINE 2 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 10:13 together, 4-4 Corsi, 1-1 shots, no goals and no HDSC.
Jujhar Khaira brings size and aggression to the line, but he didn’t accomplish a lot five-on-five on the evening. He did impact the game with 2:10 on the PK.
Riley Sheahan won four of nine faceoffs at five-on-five and spent 1:10 on the PK. Tippett is going to use him a lot on that 3-4 line rotation this year, Oilers fans should hope he can score 10 goals in the role.
Josh Archibald is an excellent skater and he plays a physical game. That’s a good skill set for the Oilers on this line. His only shot of the game came shorthanded (1:18). This line did a good job of shot suppression, that will be their role all year long.
LINE 3 Anton Burdasov-Ryan Nugent Hopkins-Sam Gagner. In 9:16 five-on-five, line went 9-1 Corsi, 5-1 shots, 0-1 goals and 0-1 HDSC.
Anton Burdasov is an intriguing hockey player. He’s big, can skate, has a howitzer for a shot, and can pass the puck. NO IDEA what he is, but first impressions were good.
RNH was quality. He scored a quality SH goal, went 5-4 on the dot and played 1:46 on the PK. It’s easy to look past him with 97 and 29 on the team, but Nuge is an important part of this team.
Sam Gagner had a good night, scoring a goal and adding two assists. Four shots, 2-2 on the dot. Tippett’s using him as a top six forward, and as long as the outscoring continues (he’s at 76 percent five-on-five shot differential in 29 five-on-five minutes this fall, with a 4-1 goal differential) he’ll be fine. Tippett appears able to draw quality work from him, mind these are early days.
LINE 4 Alex Chiasson-Colby Cave-Patrick Russell played 7:46, 11-5 Corsi for and 8-2 shots. The line went 1-0 goals, 2-0 HDSC and could be a line opening night.
Alex Chiasson scored a goal on a long-range tip, had three shots on goal and continued what has been a quietly effective preseason. I like him for the bottom-six and credit to Tippett he hasn’t tried to shoehorn Chiasson on to a skill line.
Colby Cave had another good game, picked up an assist, won faceoffs and played a strong defensive game. At this point Gaetan Haas would have to do something fairly special to win the job.
Patrick Russell has done everything in his power to win a job with the Oilers, textbook training camp. Had a great look via a Chiasson pass to the slot later in the game. I think he might stick.
PAIRING 1 Darnell Nurse-Adam Larsson played 19:40 together (all numbers five-on-five), going 13-10 Corsi, 7-6 shots, 3-0 goals and 2-2 HDSC.
Darnell Nurse had two assists, two shots on goal and was skating well all night long. He also had three giveaways and that’s too many for a shutdown defender.
Adam Larsson had one assist and a shot, he seems more mobile and willing to wheel up the ice, and his passing is better to my eye a year ago. The big question on this line surrounds outlet passing, if Larsson can improve over his own past it would be a huge help.
PAIRING 2 William Lagesson-Ethan Bear played 9:19 together, 9-3 Corsi, no goals, 6-0 shots and no HDSC. Tippett put the pairing together after a disastrous start (Lagesson-Bouchard, Manning-Bear).
William Lagesson struggled early, but settled down and had a good night overall. One of his main advantages over the rest of the group (imo) is Tippett’s confidence in him on the PK. Lagesson has played 3:40 on the 4-on-5 in the first two games, Bear and Bouchard aren’t close to that level in preseason.
Ethan Bear also had early issues, but settled down and delivered a strong final 40. His two assists are a positive and his overall camp performance quality. The only question is will it be enough, and that answer is yet to come.
PAIRING 3 Brandon Manning-Evan Bouchard played 8:19 together, 7-0 shots, no goals but 4-0 HDSC. Impressive time together and a mountain of credit to Tippett for flipping pairs.
Brandon Manning had two giveaways and some wobbly coverage last night, but he and Bouchard had a strong 8 minutes together. A monster hit early, lots of wobble in coverage when paired with Bear. People keep saying he has to go to the minors to save cap, but when you replace him, even with an inexpensive option, the overall savings are very small. I don’t think he’ll make the team, but let’s be fair this won’t be a lot about cap savings.
Evan Bouchard struggled early and then settled in. He wasn’t as much a factor as in previous showings, but the role he was playing was more about defending than scoring on the power play. He was too passive in some areas, but I like his coverage on the rush and he isn’t shy along the boards. My guess is they send him down but this is going to be close.
Mikko Koskinen let in a soft goal and then played well, stopping 18 of 20, .900. He made some good stops and hopefully everyone settles down and we see the Koskinen-Smith tandem at work next week.
POSSESSION
Early days, but this Oilers team is doing well in possession. Using Natural Stat Trick and Corsi for five-on-five, this is how Tippett’s Oilers are working out:
- Game 1 v. Winnipeg: 61-37 62.2 percent
- Game 2 v. Vancouver: 72-30 70.6 percent
- Game 3 v. Vancouver: 33-35 48.5 percent
- Game 4 v. Calgary: 46-29 61.3 percent
Oilers Corsi for five-on-five after four games: 212-131, 61.8 percent.
I looked it up in the “Hoyles Rules of Analytics” and there were pictures of Maurice Richard, Mario Lemieux, Mike Bossy, Mark Messier and Bobby Orr.
It is defined as the coeffiecient of determination times the degenerate energy level, run through a Time-Independent Schrödinger Equation yields an alpha-numeric constant of either M1 or B2.
To be clutch your name must start with either M or B, where B is considered to be an outlier.
hunter1909,
Jesse has a shooting percentage of 2.7%. Will he play a full 60 games? Or be traded before Dec 1? Hmmmm.
A Monte Carlo simulation, a roll of the dice and some serious hand waving comes up with these numbers:
Oilers 89 points
JP scores 10 goals
Going to take Oilers with 94 points and JP with 21 goals.
Death-march:
Oilers 99
JP: 10, then traded
Trading Jones for a rental of Gudas during a season in which we’re a long shot just to make the playoffs doesn’t strike me as very savvy asset management.
We could trade Gudas at the deadline, but I still can’t see why we’d do that initial trade.
What does clutch look like? Would clutch mean scoring more in the playoffs than the regular season? Like Glenn Anderson? He must have scored way more playoff goals per game than in the regular season, I bet. And he’d have enough sample size to be trustworthy.
I don’t dislike Gudas, but I doubt he’s an upgrade on Benning.
Zero ability?
Is 1250 minutes over 3 years a large enough sample size to prove anything? I’m genuinely asking, because looking at the numbers I think he can play 2RD. If you have proof otherwise, please share. Throwing out flat statements like “zero ability… in multiple attempts” with zero proof does nothing to move the conversation forward.
I think it’s important to see that Matt Benning has played in the top-4 over his 3 year NHL career, and has been successful in these minutes. How do I know? I separated his top-4 minutes from his bottom-pairing minutes and then took a long look. It turns out this method is more useful than a knee-jerk reaction.
To start with I used a proxy for “top-4” each year going back to 2016-17, based on TOI v Elites taken from puckiq.com, as follows:
2016-17: Sekera (35.5%), Klefbom (34.6)
2017-18: Nurse (34.9), Klefbom (32.3)
2018-19: Klefbom (35.1), Nurse (33.8)
Next I went to naturalstattrick.com and, using their “Teammates” tool, filtered all the stats for each year for the TOI Benning spent with each player listed above. I realize there were times when Russell-Benning were the 2nd pairing, but there may have been games that they were 3rd pairing too and I didn’t want to confuse the numbers with 3rd pairing data. Then too, who you play with is as important as who you play against, so showing those games where Russell-Benning played 2nd pairing probably doesn’t give us much information about potential combos this coming season, unless the injury bug strikes down 2-3 of the top-5 guys. For reference though, Russell-Benning were together just 21:04 in 2018-19 and outscored the competition 2-1. Negligible.
So I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:
TOI: 1250:19
CF%: 52.79
FF%: 53.00
SF%: 53.17
GF%: 55.65
xGF%: 53.71
SCF%: 52.75
SCGF%: 56.99
HDCF%: 52.69
HDGF%: 56.72
Sh%: 9.51
Sv%: 91.75
PDO: 1.013
Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:
With McDavid
TOI: 420:30
CF%: 55.19
FF%: 56.65
SF%: 56.14
GF%: 62.96
xGF%: 56.10
SCF%: 55.27
HDCF%: 55.10
HDGF%: 59.38
Sh%: 14.05
Sv%: 90.73
PDO: 1.048
Without McDavid:
TOI: 829:47
CF%: 51.39
FF%: 50.88
SF%: 51.49
GF%: 49.18
xGF%: 52.06
SCF%: 50.97
HDCF%: 50.80
HDGF%: 54.29
Sh%: 8.20
Sv%: 94.67
PDO: 1.029
The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.
And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and our own Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.
The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.
Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is a top-pairing guy or even a sure-fire top 4. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of the other top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:
Benning: 49.18 (while in the top-4 only)
Nurse: 44.51
Russell: 43.87
Larsson: 43.68
Klefbom: 40.27
Sekera: 40.00 (includes bottom-pairing time)
For reference, Benning’s overall GF% without McDavid (just so we’re comparing apples-to-apples) is 51.45%.
hunter1909,
96 points for the Oilers
17 goals for JP
hunter1909,
I had to dust off the old Ouija board on this one. I’m pretty sure it said:
1) My granny’s in hell
– (no surprise there)
&
2) Oilers:98pts; JP:18 Goals
– (I might have fudged this one a bit)
I posted this on HF Boards April 17/2017
/// I think clutch is B……. S…….
But if you are going to use clutch.
GWG need G before it can be a GWG.
So the goals before the GWG have more clutch value.
Or Else
Their is no GWG.
1. Super Clutch
In wins:
All the goals before GWG
In losses:
All the Goals to get you within one
&
Game tying goals
2. Clutch
GWG
3. None clutch
In wins:
G after GWG
In losses:
All None super clutch goals
Experts define 3 levels of clutch.
1. Super Clutch
2. Clutch
3. None clutch ///
I should have added this point:
“All clutch players are as useless as none clutch players without Super Clutch players.”
This is the most accurate break down of clutch.
LMAO writing this.
Woodguy
Puck IQ:
2D not multi.
3D with group count with clearly variant avg per group.
You see repeats of group averages in like evga/60 years.
07/08 to 16/17 2.30 – 2.38
17/18 2.60
18/19 2.64
Since Vegas/ STL repeated my cup core theory.
I continue use my roster theory to test population capture of Cup caliber players.
Fenwick 47% capture of champ caliber players.
worst of the data columns.
Is Bibi Andreescu clutch?
The Media: Yes!
The Players: No!
And both have a valid narrative. Which one is correct? Do we know enough to say, for certain? (I know which one we as fans would pick).
And if we don’t know enough after a season of Bianca, can we say when a Tour player misses or makes a single important Slam putt, that they are, or aren’t clutch?
It’s not a simple thing, and I think Klosterman wishes it was… because then he has the justification to re-iterate a simple story he’s told many times before. He’s not interested in the complexity of the issue, And for me, that means I’m not interested in him.
I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.
–Michael J.
Now that is complex and human… and the truer, more beautiful story. Bound together with the elegance of Math.
Burdasov….guy has a very very heavy shot, seems like he knows how to handle the puck in his own end and make a smart pass to hit his center breaking up the middle, he’s got a history of hitting hard in the KHL. As Tip said..intriguing. Very early days but he looks like a guy with skills to fit on a McDavid line. Yes Kass, those are footsteps you are hearing.
Rob. Schremp.
lol
Georgexs,
Burdman has really added a wrinkle to the state of affairs. If he’s a player, he’s found money.
And someone else is in the ejection seat.
I remember that one LT thread where Woodguy said he got the cooties rubbing elbows with some mainland European “whiskeys” instead of sticking with good ole Irsih “Whiskys”.
True story!
hunter1909,
92 points for the Oilers
14 goals for Yessa
Please and thank you.
hunter1909,
I am an avid Oilers fan but see rough waters ahead for one more year
Oilers 81 points
Puljujarvi 24 goals
Thanks for putting this “March” together
Nothing worse than people who talk a players ceiling.
My theory Belichek and Me.
Relating to 40 yrs of sports play.
Championship teams are built on high baseline player teams.
Mcdavid has an unbelievable high level of baseline offensive play.
I do not use the false eye affect ( theory ) many fans and MSM use.
We’re they use a low% of dramatic player +ve/ – ve performance to define a player.
Poster child for this was Sheldon Souray.
I define forward by per 25 shift multiples and dmen by 30 shift multiples.
Souray would have a dramatic blow by leading to a goal.
False eye fans would say he was an awful player.
Yet his goal causing mistake per 300 shift rate was top 10 defence. Yes a product of NJD top HD dman factory.
That was why years ago I was a booster for Staples mistake aproach.
“belichek and Me” had already defined top mistake free play as championship play decades ago.
I watched all the “False Eye affect Fans” argue against Staples aproach.
They had zero idea what a championship structure is.
Rovers abandon def of the HD area that is 500% more critical to GF and GA than any other area of the ice.
They fail on both sides of HD area open high danger shot density thru HD area penetration.
They are a hybrid of the worst Baseline player skill at “skater offence” and “HD area defence.”
Yet all the “false eye affect fans” let a very low % of +ve play form an opinion of a rover.
Rovers: are the anti championship baseline player.
Have to look for my post on Clutch at HF boards.
hunter1909,
105 points, 11 goals. Starrett leads them to the cup. Why the hell not ?
I was told that one thing applies to Kassian because he’s a good player and it doesn’t apply to Gagner because he’s not a good player hence why the theory applies to Gagner but not Kassian.
Without getting in to which player is currently “better”, I’m quite certain that there isn’t such a gap between the players that analytical analysis applies to one and not the other.
Hi Hunter, thanks for all your work on the deathmarch spreadsheet of guesses.
If McD not at 100% then very low guess of 70pts and 20 goals for Puljujarvi.
I see it differently.
I see a GM who is in the process of making small safe bets, instead of shooting for the fences like the previous GM who presumably by now might have Nurse/Draisaitl on the block to “shake up” the team.
There is now a head coach who imo already has the team defence playing at a higher level than the previous few coaches. I don’t even see the opposition instantly forechecking the defence like I’ve gotten used to for the past several seasons(memory is hazy, so many things wrong so it’s hard to keep track).
And the team suddenly appears to understand what they need to do when they’re in their own end of the rink, compared to the fire drills of the past several coaches.
We shall find out whether this is happening for real in less than 2 weeks, once the real season begins.
Gagne is a good second unit powerplay option…. and so far he’s earned his spot on the roster. He’s also a guy that can sit a few games, or be pulled if he doesn’t match well with a particular team. Well see. 5 on 5 numbers are the tell imo. .. aka can he defend.
Kass has impressed, well only 1 game ….. but if he can keep his cool and play with maturity, he’s a unique talent… a forward version of Bucky in winnipeg. Kass is very, very important to this team. He can intimdate with his heavy checking and speed, … and kind of plays a tacet ‘semenko’ kind of role on the team. by eye, Kassian just seems different… like he ‘gets it’ now. well see very small sample size…
Is Gagner underperforming?
I don’t see why there is so much angst over Marody getting sent down as if he will not be called up again.
Give the “underperforming vets” a chance to show if they can return to form and if not, call up the 6 gp 0 point youth to see if they are better.
Doesn’t seem like a bad idea to me.
Lowetide,
The Oilers piss away talent? You’re going to see more of it in the name of playing under performing vets until the talent is “over-ripe”.
But ho hum, I’ll still cheer for them.
Everything has to be mutually exclusive with you, eh? Zach has played over 300 games less than Sam. In wildly different roles
Zack had skills, but as soon as they found out he could fight, they shoe-horned him into a 4th line energy role.
The NHL is littered with stories about players being told to “do what it takes” with the people doing the telling being dishonest and getting some of these players to be enforcers. See of these guys were actually pretty skilled.
Zack also had substance abuse problems. Sam had refusing to back check properly problems.
But to double down. Morody shouldn’t have been sent down. Good cheap player that is better than more than a few still here, and the GM brings in a guy from Siberia that he’s never seen because you never know, he could be a 28yo Ovechkin that everyone missed, but hey, never question, never learn.
hunter1909,
Oilers 96 points
Pool Party: 11 goals
Thanks Hunter 🙂
Kassian and Gagner have some similarities, both high picks with strengths and flaws in their game. Kassian will always be remembered fondly in Edmonton for 2017 spring, but maybe there are more chapters, trunks of memories still to come as Neil Young said. He isn’t a sniper but found the range enough to move up the depth chart. Can he sustain it? Don’t know, but until someone takes the job it’s an interesting experiment. I’ll give him credit for working at his craft and overcoming a lot over the years, he’s found a path back to becoming a solid NHL player (and added PK, plus some goals).
Gagner is also flawed, but has substantial gifts. His work on the PP in CBJ was a combination of skill and perfect working environment. He can be effective in a specific role.
I don’t know who likes whom in this conversation but would suggest the Oilers can’t afford to piss away one drop of useful talent at this time. Both of these men have assets that can be valuable, and flaws that might be fatal.
That’s basically 70 percent of the NHL.
Hunter, Im going with Oilers getting 91 points, and Pool Party getting 31 goals.
I guess that I was seeing things when I saw no.24 on the ice for the Flames last night. Or are you saying that he is not top 4?
godot10,
Bear gets Manning
Persson gets Klefbom
May the best man win?
I no longer have an Apple product but that’s good info, thx
The caching issue (or whatever it was) appears to have been resolved on Android and my Win7 laptop for a few weeks now(maybe longer, I don’t know)
I use Chrome on both products however, perhaps a recent browser update resolved the issue
Its interesting that Kassian is a good player and Gagner is not despite Gagner having tripple the career points (and only about 16 months older). Yup, about double the games but there is a reason for that and, even so, the PPG over their careers massively favor the bad player. I guess it was QoC all these years…
jtblack,
1. Maturing of the core. Hard to bet against two top 10 players in the league just entering their prime
2. Better goaltending. Last nights game of Rittich and Gillis being a great example of how teams fall apart if they don’t trust their goaltending. I expect the Oilers tandem to be at least league average
3. To a lesser extent. Better depth and better coaching
All of the above with a healthy dose of blind, foolish eternal optimism….
Lavoie held off the score-sheet in a blowout loss – did have 8 shots on net mind you.
No, because Zach is actually a good hockey player, as per my caveat. So no obliteration today.
Again, when you get these numbers, they once again need to be run against their possession metrics and their point share and if they get caved by the opposition or not.
There is no magic stat. Just a bunch of data that can be used as indicators. Of course your linemates matter. But you’re starting down the road of justifying some strange people playing way out of their skill zone on the pretense that if someone else is good enough, it doesn’t matter. Slippery slope.
If you’re good enough, you can play for longer against better and still produce. That you get better linemates is a byproduct of moving up the depth chart. It’s a symptom, not a cause.
Woodguy v2.0,
I remember when you said there was a 50% discount on all wood related products for all LT posters!
Hunter,
99 Points
8 Goals Puljujarvi before being traded
Lowetide,
Past couple visits to site on iPhone and I can see the comments without logging in, FYI
It’s nice seeing a system that has the potential to be extremely effective. I can’t recall seeing so many options for outlet passes. The puck is moving up the ice fast. I am optimistic. Hence the 99 prediction
f
I am confident management would LOVE if Manning got claimed on waivers but the chances of that are all but none. The better chance at disposition would be a trade with some cap retained.
They could keep 8 d-men, not all that uncommon for stretches, but cutting down to 13 forwards would be very hard as well.
I think it’s fair to say this a fairly common experience and pet peeve for most human beings.
Ir’s the old saying. There’s 3 sides to every story.
Oh, Bruce, I agree, he can be a dominant center in the NHL (and has done so in the past).
He can do exactly what you explained, and does do it, in the NHL regular season – Tippett knows that and I’m sure he’s seen film of it. I’m just stating that doing exactly that, gaining the flames zone against a defence with none of their top 4, and creating scoring chances, isn’t going to alter Tippett’s plan.
hunter1909,
Oilers – 93 pts
JP – 9 goals I am going for the trade 🙂
Lots of data to support that quality of linemate is more important than quality of competition as far as scoring rates. See Zack Kassian as an example. I suspect his QoC went WAY up when moved from the 4th line to the 1st line – scoring rates went WAY up despite.
Lots of date but Zack last year is just one example that came to mind that completely obliterates your position.
Gagner producing away from McDavid – that is massive for this team.
If you don’t want to look at “scoring rates” and go with PPG, feel free, his numbers, even in the last number of years, would be very helpful on the Oilers
People “remember” things I never said often here.
Its a pet peeve to have things attributed to me that I never said.
The biggest thing about “clutch” is describing the situations well enough so you can collect enough information that the sample size isn’t subject to massive sample size issues.
Eberle is great example.
16/17 playoffs 13gp 0g 2a 2pts 0.15pts/gm
“:He disappears when then games get bigger’
18/19 playoffs 8gp 4g 5a 9pts 1.13pts/gm
” He stepped up when he team mates needed him”
It’s easy to concoct a narrative around really small samples.
Also,
In our journey with PuckIQ we found that it’s takes ~300 minutes for any sample to start to get close to resembling their future production.
Not many ‘wilters’ make it to the best league in the world, though. 😉
The anti-clutch (choke) plays are dramatic too. Like the Stefan gaffe on the empty netter or Steve Smith.
Some players rise to the occasion. Some wilt under pressure.
If that’s how you remember it, i don’t have any issues with retracting.
I have memory of a thread a while back where you were strongly debunking clutch as a myth saying the numbers simply didn’t support it. But if my memory is overstating your position, fair enough and i’m glad you’re buying this stock.
Edmonton 91
JP 16