I have followed waivers for decades, along with its long forgotten brother the Intra-League Draft. It’s a fabulous idea, giving someone caught in one organization a second life in another one.
I will tell you that the group on waivers this morning might be my all-time favourite, exceeded only by the time Sam Pollock lost a HHOF goalie in the Intra-League Draft.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, we are celebrating our 2-year anniversary this week. To mark the occasion, you can get 40% off subscriptions here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
- New Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
- Lowetide: The Oilers are poised to break a 25-year-old franchise record this season
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s fast start leads the way for Oilers prospects as 2019-20 gets underway
- Lowetide: Joakim Nygard and Gaetan Haas bid for final Oilers spots during a strange game in Calgary
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: An educated guess at the Oilers’ opening-night roster
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft’s Bakersfield Condors might be bound for glory
- Jonathan Willis: Ethan Bear, Tomas Jurco outshine the competition in second-to-last Oilers preseason game
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Joakim Nygard managing his anger as he eyes spot on Oilers.
- Jonathan Willis: Assessing the Oilers’ roster as the final positional battles are sorted out
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers cut Evan Bouchard and Shane Starrett. Is Ethan Bear on the cusp of making the team?
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Connor McDavid’s nearing return and four other things we’ve learned from Oilers camp
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How five months in Kelowna changed Leon Draisaitl’s hockey career
- Lowetide: Matt Benning may be vulnerable to a trade as Ken Holland works to tweak Oilers roster
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
WAIVERS TODAY
It’s like Lowetide Christmas! I’m two weeks away from a turkey and today is a helluva appetizer. The Edmonton Oilers are extremely unlikely to choose anyone, but that doesn’t mean they should pass on the ample talent available at 10am Edmonton time.
RW Daniel Sprong, Anaheim Ducks. This would be my first choice. Sprong is 22, fast, and his per 82 rates in the NHL (17 goals, 157 shots) are solid to good. He would be the first Dutch (Netherlands) Oiler, although Jerry Holland played 22 games for the WHA Oilers (Holland is from Beaver Lodge).
RW Josh Ho Sang, NY Islanders. He is fast, smaller and talented. Ho Sang doesn’t shoot a lot (averages about a shot per game) and will be highly motivated. I don’t believe the Oilers will put in a claim.
LD Thomas Hickey, NY Islanders. Another player Edmonton won’t pick, I’ve listed Hickey because his fancy numbers are excellent. According to Puck IQ, he spent 33.5 percent of his overall time defending against elites in 2018-19. DFF: 49.9 DFF%RC: 7.5. He’s a good player.
LW Nikolay Goldobin, Vancouver Canucks. Skill winger averages 12.6 goals and 117 shots per 82 NHL games. Good skater, he’s 23. Puck IQ doesn’t love him against elites.
LW Sven Baertschi, Vancouver Canucks. During his NHL career, he has averaged 19 goals and 125 shots per 82 games. He’s expensive (Oilers would be more likely to trade for him than make a claim) and I think this was an unwise waiver exposure.
G Eric Comrie, Winnipeg Jets. He’s 24, has played in only five NHL games, but owns a .917 AHL save percentage from 2018-19. My guess is that the Oilers are at least somewhat comfortable with the goalie depth chart, but this would be an intriguing claim.
G Casey DeSmith, Pittsburgh Penguins. In the last two seasons with the Penguins, his save percentages were .921 and .916. He is a solid waiver option.
LOWETIDE AUGUST PROJECTED OPENING NIGHT ROSTER
- Leon Draisaitl—Connor McDavid—Zack Kassian
- James Neal—Ryan Nugent-Hopkins—Alex Chiasson
- Jujhar Khaira—Riley Sheahan—Josh Archibald
- Markus Granlund—Gaetan Haas—
Sam Gagner - Joakim Nygard, Colby Cave
- Darnell Nurse—Adam Larsson
- Oscar Klefbom—Joel Persson
- Kris Russell—Matt Benning
Caleb Jones- Mikko Koskinen (Mike Smith)
Edmonton will start the season with Persson, Sheahan and Kyle Brodziak on IR. Brandon Manning in place of Caleb Jones, Patrick Russell made the team over Sam Gagner. Bear and Jurco sitting in for Persson and Sheahan.
I projected this year’s Oilers to have a -11 goal differential (239-250) and 88 points in the standings (falling shy of the postseason by six or seven points). None of the tweaks by management and coaching staff changes my August trajectory.
SAM GAGNER
Sam Gagner getting waived was a surprise and honestly I suspect he’ll be back sooner than later. Despite having some warts, Gagner is a talented offensive player. I expect an offensive dry spell of two or more games has the team assessing the decision.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1)
- At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 0-0-0, 0 points after no games
I have the Oilers getting off to a nice start before going 4-4-0 to complete the month. The early schedule has enough average or worse teams, making it possible for coach Dave Tippett to find a rhythm that works for his roster. Goals will be less of a problem if the team can cut down on the GA. Last year’s totals (229-271) had Edmonton scoring 15 fewer goals than average. The big number came in GA, where the Oilers were fully 27 goals below average. The per game totals were 2.79-3.30, one hopes Tippett can get them closer to 3.00 GA per game.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning, TSN1260 we begin at 10. Simon Boisvert, our prospect insider, gets things rolling at 10:20 and we’ll be joined by Andrew Peard (Oil Kings play-by-play) at 11 to talk about a tough weekend (shakes fist at Dylan Cozens). Waivers will be front and center, I do not expect the Oilers to make a claim. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Don’t mess with Leon the Maschine
Yes, I like Kemp. Not that I didn’t like Marino, I just didn’t see “NHL-ready” in his game. Good for him.
I figured he was, if not very close. He got clobbered with DZ starts, while Fox, Walsh and freshman Rathbone got the OZ and PP assignments.
Plus he is a great skater who passes well.
I hope we hang on to Kemp who is trending the same way, but has more of a bite to his game.
That’s fine. Your enjoyment is not my prime motivator for posting here. Nor my secondary motivator.
But that’s not the point. The point was to get a sense of Oilers fans valuation on their prospects, which I think was successful, although on a microscopic scale.
“Would you do that deal?”
“That is not is not introducing for discussion.”
Clearly you missed the point of the post, and deliberately quoted only part of the post so you could attack yet another straw man. Dishonest.
That was pretty much the whole quote, except “Would you do that deal”.
It read as if you heard something about Holland trading for Drouin. One of us is being dishonest. It isn’t me.
Smart move by Marino to bail after Pete got sacked. John knew he was to far down the depth chart in the Oilers organization with the waiver exemptions and the other good looking young D. He signs with a team that is thin on D and bang he’s getting a NHL paycheque.
I didn’t enjoy your exercise either, FWIW.
It definitely was a little surprising and concerning. But you’re right not to sound the alarm either since it’s possible we’re reading something into nothing. Hopefully Jones/Marody do grab a full time spot with the Oilers in the next 6 months, they’re very clearly elite AHL players at a relatively young age.
texmex,
Jesus, how badly did they slay those drafts with the picks they had?!
I see. My sentiment stands, I suppose. Growing portfolio on Holland.
Yeah I wrote it in passiveish because I don’t feel like sounding the alarm.
I’d say that Jones and Marody are making it this year or (chances are) never, though; with ‘making it’ defined as going on to chain multiple seasons together with the same team as a regular.
ArmchairGM,
From 31 thoughts….. Diamond in the rough.
He wasn’t gonna sign in Edmonton anyway, but still a kick
21. John Marino is making a run at the Pittsburgh defence, and, even if he starts the season at AHL Wilkes-Barre, he’s going to play in the big league. The Oilers really liked Marino, who they took 154th in 2015. Playing at Harvard behind offensive wizard Adam Fox and Devils draftee Reilly Walsh — the team’s two leading scorers — Edmonton thought it had a diamond-in-the-rough. Marino, from North Easton, MA., had a connection with former Oiler GM Peter Chiarelli (may have played with Chiarelli’s son) and things changed after he was fired. It wasn’t exactly a secret, either, and the Oilers made the best deal they could with the defender one year from becoming an unrestricted free agent. Penguins look like they will benefit big.
Does anybody have stompin Tom Connors going off in their brain today?
hunter1909,
Give me 97 points, 12G for JP
Interesting. Who knew he was NHL-ready? I certainly didn’t.
Deliberately quoting me out of context is intellectually dishonest. Please include the whole quote as it illuminates the intention of the post.
Another kick in the junk…
Matt Vensel
@mattvensel
·
8m
The #Penguins have recalled John Marino after officially putting Bryan Rust on long-term IR. The impressive young blue-liner has made the team.
I haven’t seen anybody arguing not to trade a prospect simply because he was their personal favourite in this thread. What I’ve seen is fans attempting to put realistic value on prospects in the context of the current depth chart and the player returning in suggested hypothetical trades. Those are not the same things.
What? You said, “Apparently Holland offered Samorukov, Puljujarvi and a 2nd for Drouin,but MTL countered with Broberg instead of Samorukov. Holland declined.”
That is not is not introducing for discussion. That is citing a thing that happened. If your source is off the books, fine, but I thought your meaning was fairly explicit.
For The Athletic: Ken Holland has a plan for the Oilers’ top prospects
https://theathletic.com/1258489/2019/10/02/lowetide-ken-holland-has-a-plan-for-the-oilers-top-prospects/
How so, exactly? Defend your position, damn your eyes to Hades!
I have long advocated better prospect evaluation. I have long advocated a moving prospect pipeline where there is either a place on the first team to step into, or he is traded for an area of need.
“Can’t trade this guy, because any future success he’ll have will be used to judge the decision of the past, which was to cut bait on him as it obviously was not working out for either party at that time. Then we’d look stupid.”
What I don’t advocate is hanging on to a prospect so long without using him that it sours everything – trade value, young player’s career, player-team relationship etc, on the half-baked narratives that “he’s got all the tools” or “has a high ceiling” or “never got a decent chance with McDavid.”
This needs to be a sticky.
Make it happen GoDaddy!
Well, if you have to ask the question…
But yeah I noticed that too, and I feel like the omissions were even more egregious in real time than they seem here in written form.
I think it’s more a case that we have 4 defensemen who lose their waiver eligibility next summer, one or more of them will likely be traded. At this point we don’t know who it makes sense to keep so we’re speculating, not writing anyone off. IMO if Jones, Bear, Lagesson and Persson all show proficiency in the NHL this year some will be kept and some traded, depending on who we need most and who we have room for. So get used to the idea…
Of course, maybe Holland trades Benning and Russell next summer and runs
Nurse-Larsson
Klefbom-Persson
Lagesson-Bear
Jones
and none of them get traded, but this seems somewhat unlikely. I think most fans have accepted that this year is about discovery with these four and not all of them will be with the organization next fall.
Another thing to keep in mind: we have 4 defensemen who lose their waiver eligibility next summer, therefore should either be earmarked for the NHL in 2020-21 or traded. We still need to find out more about them – hence the Sekera buyout to make room for them in the NHL this year (hopefully they each get at least 20 games) – but these guys should be the trade bait next spring / summer IMO, not the younger prospects.
I do not have a public source. I introduced it here as a discussion point on the value of various prospects and players.
Straw man.
Pronman ranks Samorukov well within the top 100 prospects, Otten and Mackenzie both called him the best defenseman in the OHL. So your blathering about “hundreds” is just that – blathering.
Bianca Brief…
Same story as 1st round. Bianca plays like shit and wins. Over 30 unforced errors in the second set alone, can’t get her first serve in, 7 DFs but always seemed to get it together on the important points. Would like to see her play more comfortable and confident though.
6-3
7-6 (7-5)
She gets a quallie in the next round, hopefully she starts to get her game together.
First, I haven’t witnessed anyone dying on Samorukov Hill. Second, credible observers have noted that he’s much closer to the NHL than we might have thought. If you cannot hear the distinct peel from here I suggest you get your hearing checked.
pts2pndr,
People are crazy low on Jones.
…
So I’m listening to Holland’s avail and I don’t know if anyone caught this, but when Terry Jones asked him about if he had any hesitation about doing ‘the thing he usually does’ [sending prospects down for a little extra] and Holland’s answer created a category of players that said were going to ‘impact this franchise down the road’.
In it, he listed Bouchard, Yamamoto, Samorukov, Benson, McLeod – Marody and Jones missing.
I hope that’s nothing. Both are NHL players imo.
Logic says that you don’t need Jones at this time for left D. Samorukov has a higher ceiling and will be a cheap replacement when required 2 – 3 years down the road. It is not a hill to die on but why trade a future need if you can make the deal with a piece not needed at this time. It’s called forward thinking and unfortunately somewhat uncommon. The magpie goes after bright and shinny. All that glitters is not gold. If Drouin was the final piece to a championship fine, you make the deal but from what I know he isn’t the final piece so why overpay.
I would’ve paid this, if the deal is legit, but no way am I throwing in a 3rd quality asset.
leadfarmer,
expansion draft… forgot about that too!
Smith.. save some shots. End of the day…. Smith has to stop some pucks this year.
Jethro Tull,
hey I forgot about that… JP .. .. as he progresses. Interesting option.
Wilde,
It’s ‘buy low’ time on Drouin, and if that wasn’t offered.. don’t bite, which they didn’t.
interesting to hear Hollands interview today… how the Europeans looking to play in NHL don’t cost you anything… they just make the team on entry level contract. ..
Easily worth JP and a second. We haven’t even given him a shot on McDavid’s wing.
that’s pretty funny.
I have them pushing Vancouver for 3rd in pacific.. … I think we match up well versus pacific division. Like Leon said, we lost a lot of one goal games because of PK and poor team defense.. ( ah and getting scored on the first shot every game.. also that)..
Agreed… that TSN team ALWAYS overestimates the Oilers. 3rd last is very generous indeed. 2nd last or bust. 😉
Yeah but 15% off groceries on the 1st of the month, though.
2 years ago tsn panel had oilers winning the cup.
How was the parade?
Jethro Tull,
If true it’s pretty nutty because Drouin isn’t really a 5v5 offensive guy – he’s best described as something like a Nuge with inverted instincts.
I don’t think the (first) price is outrageous, but this would have been /the/ move. That’s what they’re buying? Powerplay offense? It’s either they don’t know Drouin, or they don’t know the 17/18-18/19 Oilers.
I’ve never fully recovered from the hole left in my soul by prospect Cameron Abney. He should have been the power forward playing wingman for Connor this season. Instead he’s likely stacking shelves at the local IGA. Cruel world.
No
An insider tweeting as Cheat Pia Relli.
94 points for the Oilers and 11 goals for JP please and thank you Hunter.
I dont think Sprong is very good at the defense so doesnt really matter how many goals he scores.
What’s the source on this? This is a pretty revealing set of events.
Multivariable works here too, I think.
hunter1909,
Hunter, put me down for the Oilers finishing with 79 points and Puljujärvi with 17 goals, ty and god bless
No.
Trading a High first round pick for JT Miller when you know an expansion draft is coming soon is what keeps you in Hell