Wild Night

Alright, everyone calm the hell down! It’s three games! It’s a very small sample size. Still, maybe you could celebrate a little. Nothing crazy. A six-inch sub or a ceramic elephant. Do not make a big deal out of it. Understated. Subtle. LIKE A FOUR GOAL GAME FROM YOUR OFFSEASON ACQUISITION AMIRITE??!?!?

There. That’s an example of what not to do. Let’s solemnly move on, without even cracking a smile. Well, maybe just a little one. But then right back to hearts of stone, immediately it not sooner. Be British. Dammit.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Lowetide: Several unproven players are earning NHL jobs and increasing roster quality and depth. No balance photo, but some traction early.
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why Riley Sheahan could be a key ingredient the Oilers have been missing
  • New Jonathan Willis: Bet on James Neal rebounding with Oilers, just not all the way
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Joel Persson went from being a part-time teacher three years ago to patrolling the Oilers blue line (this is exceptional).
  • Lowetide: Keeping an eye on Jesse Puljujarvi: Which teams could emerge as potential trade partners?
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto’s fast start in the AHL highlights an active week for Oilers prospects
  • Lowetide: A shift-by-shift analysis of Ethan Bear in the Oilers’ season opener
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Looking at how the Oilers can manage on defence without Adam Larsson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: No need to temper expectations after Connor McDavid’s season debut for Oilers
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland has a plan for the Oilers’ top prospects.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: At home with Ken Holland: Packing away the championship memories and preparing for a new challenge
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
  • Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
  • Lowetide: The Oilers are poised to break a 25-year-old franchise record this season
  • Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft’s Bakersfield Condors might be bound for glory
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 20150-3-0, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in October 2016: 2-1-0, goal differential +1
  • Oilers in October 2017: 1-2-0, goal differential -1
  • Oilers in October 2018: 1-2-0, goal differential -5
  • Oilers in October 2019: 3-0-0, goal differential +5

At five-on-five through three games, Edmonton is 9-7 goal differential overall, 5-3 with McDavid and 4-4 without him. That’s a lot of progress but it’s very early days. Let’s talk when the Oilers are 20 games into the season.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

  • At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (1-0-0) 
  • At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
  • At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0) 
  • On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games 
  • Current results: 3-0-0, 6 points after 3 games

Edmonton’s underlying numbers do not match the team’s record. At five-on-five, shot differential is 44.2 and goal differential is 9-7. Expected goals? 49.02 percent, the most encouraging number. Hell they’re 3-0, party on. Everything we discuss below comes from NST.

LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 11:24, going 11-9 Corsi, 6-6 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-1 HDSC.

Leon Draisaitl had another quality game, two assists, sublime passing, five shot attempts. Played 21:52. He got caught stone alone coming out of his zone on the PP, and turned the puck over, but sometimes you have to give the other man his due. Connor McDavid had three assists and is now 3, 2-6-8 on the season. His skating is insane, but the man’s passing is also from another world. Zack Kassian scored another goal and is now 3-1-4. Add in Leon (1-6-7) and the trio has 19 points over the three games.

LINE 2 Tomas Jurco-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-James Neal played 10:07, 14-13 Corsi (all numbers five-on-five), 6-7 shots, 2-0 goals and 1-0 HDSC.

Tomas Jurco played well at both ends, the play doesn’t die on his stick often. He’s the one newcomer who has significant NHL experience, he appears to be a real find. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins played well, damn unfair he didn’t get an assist on the first Neal goal. James Neal is THE story today. His four goals propelled the club to a three-game winning streak and he now has six goals in three games. He looks exactly like the player Calgary thought they were getting.

LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 10:07, 8-10 Corsi, 2-6 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira had a good night forechecking, he needs to have the puck and shoot more. Riley Sheahan had a good return, successful in the faceoff circle and his line is much better with him. Patrick Russell played a lot on the PK and had a couple of good looks.

LINE 4 Joakim Nygard-Gaetan Haas-Markus Granlund played 7:49, 4-6 Corsi, 2-4 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-1 HDSC.

Joakim Nygard is impressive. Excellent speed gets him chances and allows him to recover defensively. He’s physical. And smart. Gaetan Haas is doing more things, he’s kind of a Swiss (I’m sorry) Army (I can’t stop it) Knife. Markus Granlund is in the Rip Van Winkle phase of his career.

PAIRING 1 Darnell Nurse-Ethan Bear played 14:34, were 19-17 Corsi, 9-9 shots, 0-1 goals and 3-1 HDSC.

Darnell Nurse played 4:10 (Klefbom 7:25) with McDavid, and 6:30 (Klefbom 5:12) against Barzal. He had an assist (now 3, 1-2-3) and flattened Leo Komarov. Ethan Bear doesn’t have any points but passed well and finished over 50 percent Corsi.

PAIRING 2 Oscar Klefbom-Joel Persson played 13:52 together, 6-15 Corsi, 2-7 shots, 2-0 goals and 2-1 HDSC.

Oscar Klefbom is playing big, heavy minutes consistently well. His assist gave him four in three games. Joel Persson struggled early on, not just with the pace but with the physical side. Passing had some wobble but he settled down and the pairing had a positive result overall despite possession totals.

PAIRING 3 Kris Russell-Matt Benning played 12:01 together, 12-10 Corsi, 5-5 shots, 1-0 goals and 1-0 HDSC.

Kris Russell had five shot attempts, defended well and had a nifty scoring chance, plus a takeaway. Matt Benning played well, kept the puck going in a good direction and stood up oncoming traffic. This is a good third pairing.

GOALTENDER Mikko Koskinen was quality on the night, both goals were 10-bell. He stopped 24 of 25 (.960) at five-on-five, that included three of four stops on high danger chances. Overall, he stopped 25 of 27 (.926) and four of six HDSC’s. He was big and calm, and his glove wasn’t exposed. A solid debut.

OILERS 2019-20

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Tom Gazzola from TSN joins us at 10:20 to tell us everything we don’t know about James Neal. Also, how high can these Oilers fly? Kris Abbott from OddsShark will pop in to talk mlb playoff odds (Astros down? Yankees up?), NHL (Oilers chances of making the playoffs has to be up) and NFL after a crazy weekend of upsets and close calls. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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267 Responses to "Wild Night"

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  1. npanciroli says:

    I think a lot of the team corsi can be attributed to Cave getting… Caved.

    Jurco and Neal look like they could be the permanent 2nd line fixtures RNH has been begging for.

  2. Pretendergast says:

    Wooooooooooo!

  3. npanciroli says:

    Pretendergast,

    Wooooooooo!

  4. Ice Sage says:

    Dream scenario to start the season, Oilers not frittering anything away… yet.
    Who was always harping that this team needed a ‘first shot shooter’?

  5. tileguy says:

    We may not be balanced but the team is more in focus.

  6. Coiler says:

    What a game by Neal and what a start to his Oiler career. Very encouraging to say the least. The whole team played pretty well to my eye. I think the best thing that’s coming out of this is the confidence or swagger that sort of win gives the team.
    The NY Islanders aren’t slouches and you can bet they’re going to get an earful from Mr. Trotz this morning. So I would count this as a big win for the team and for Mr. Holland as well. If Neal can keep scoring and Lucic continues to do Lucic things then that trade is going to be ranked up there for this year.

  7. Jethro Tull says:

    “Be British”

    I try my best!

  8. ArmchairGM says:

    “At five-on-five through three games, Edmonton is 9-7 goal differential overall, 5-3 with McDavid and 4-4 without him. That’s a lot of progress but it’s very early days. Let’s talk when the Oilers are 20 games into the season.”

    You totally just stole WG’s thunder. What’s he going to post now?

    🙂

  9. tileguy says:

    Ice Sage:
    Dream scenario to start the season, Oilers not frittering anything away… yet.
    Who was always harping that this team needed a ‘first shot shooter’?

    I was willing to go all in, put all our eggs in one basket to find a sharp shooter, who knew All we needed was a rusty ol boat anchor. thanks Mr. Holland. In fact, I think we might have a couple more down on the farm, see what you can get for those.

  10. leadfarmer says:

    I think you need to send that ceramic elephant or 6 in sub to Lucic for being so unhappy here that he demanded a trade.
    Also he successfully killed 2 min of powerplay time that he got yesterday

  11. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Props to Koski: he’s been marginalized. Lost his starting job due to Coaches previous relationship

    – So hard to come in after not playing a game for 2 weeks and do well, and being “told” your not the starter: big props, better not be another week before next start

    – Would be great if goalies both play well. Koski has to play at least 45 games if he’s going to be a good starting goalie going forward. He needs 5 starts min. this month : 4 more to go

    – Koski’s start was better than Smith’s two starts IMO. Goalies need their team to play good to be good. That’s what we saw last night: good team, good Goalie. That was an NHL goalie last night

    – Had we only scored only 1 goal, story might have been “Koski has to do more”

    – Can’t say nuthin’ about the start of season

    – So pumped for game on Saturday at MSG

  12. Reja says:

    Mama Kass has quietly gotten 3 goals. Kass has figured it out just go to the net just like Maroon did when he potted 27 goals.

  13. jtblack says:

    Devils play tonight in Philly. So we get them on the B2B tomorrow.

    This start is Amazing. !!!

  14. ArmchairGM says:

    “Gaetan Haas is doing more things, he’s kind of a Swiss (I’m sorry) Army (I can’t stop it) Knife.”

    But, of course, you did it again in the very next sentence: “Markus Granlund is in the Rip Van Winkle phase of his career.” No wonder they call him ‘Granny’.

  15. MoogerFuhger says:

    Dear Lowetide,

    Longtime lurker, never poster, Edmontonian living abroad. Just wanted to say that is the best opening I think I have ever read on this blog. Hands down. Thank you for this wonderful place. Fingers crossed – Check. Candle lit – Check. Ojala tenemos Stanley pronto. Saludos de Mexico

  16. Reja says:

    I can’t wait till Bouchard gets called up our powerplay will be deadly especially with Neal down low. Am I the only one that thinks Kelfbom handles the puck awkwardly (no touch) on the PP unlike Larry Murphy I mean Evan the point hound Bouchard

  17. OilClog says:

    Ice Sage:
    Dream scenario to start the season, Oilers not frittering anything away… yet.
    Who was always harping that this team needed a ‘first shot shooter’?

    Literally everyone

  18. Brantford Boy says:

    Dear Milan,

    Thanks for the 26 minutes in penalties and the 2 fights so far this season.

    Sincerely,
    Calgary’s conditional third-round pick in the 2020 NHL Draft

  19. Yeti says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Props to Koski: he’s been marginalized. Lost his starting job due to Coaches previous relationship

    Sorry, Kinger, but that’s BS. He lost his job for displaying the same weaknesses in pre-season as he did for the entire second half of last season. You don’t need to invent a conspiracy theory to explain this. He played himself out of a job.

  20. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    MoogerFuhger,

    – Great nick! where do you live?

  21. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    19/20
    EDM Goal Share after 3 games (3-0-0)

    Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
    McDavid On Ice 5-3 (63%)
    McDavid Off Ice 5-4 (56%)
    Net EV +3

    Sp. Teams (PP+SH For–PK+SH Against)
    4-2
    Net ST +2

    Empty Net
    0-0
    Net EN 0

    SO & PS
    0-0
    SO & PS=0

    Net Goal Differential +5

  22. ArmchairGM says:

    “Matt Benning played well, kept the puck going in a good direction and stood up oncoming traffic. This is a good third pairing.”

    Interesting that Benning is +5, which is the best mark on the team. I was impressed with his smart positioning last night, he’s a smart player and he’s the better half of that pairing IMO. I still think he could be effective higher in the order but I’m fine with him anchoring an outscoring* 3rd pair.

    * Russell’s plus/minus is even, but together they are 2-0 in 33 minutes at 5v5. Russell is 0-2 in 6 minutes without Benning.

  23. Reja says:

    Marleau signs in San Jose while he was surfing with his family at the beach. What a surprise.

  24. Side says:

    Reja:
    Marleau signs in San Jose while he was surfing with his family at the beach. What a surprise.

    Where was he surfing when he signed in Toronto again?

  25. JimmyV1965 says:

    Very happy with the win last night, and more importantly, the play of the team. Not sure how the JJ-Sheahan line had a negative Corsi. Lots of ozone time with little happening I guess. I’ll take that though. I’ll have to maintain my skepticism for a little bit longer. I remember last year when the Devils started hot. They were 4-0 and playing very well. They won two of their next 10.

  26. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    “At five-on-five through three games, Edmonton is 9-7 goal differential overall, 5-3 with McDavid and 4-4 without him. That’s a lot of progress but it’s very early days. Let’s talk when the Oilers are 20 games into the season.”

    You totally just stole WG’s thunder. What’s he going to post now?

    Hmmm.

    I have it 5-4 at EV with McDavid off.

    I had it as 3-3 heading into last night’s game and 97 off went 2-1 at EV. (Neal’s 5v5 goals and the Martin goal against)

  27. ArmchairGM says:

    “Alright, everyone calm the hell down! It’s three games! It’s a very small sample size. Still, maybe you could celebrate a little. Nothing crazy. A six-inch sub or a ceramic elephant. Do not make a big deal out of it. Understated. Subtle. LIKE A FOUR GOAL GAME FROM YOUR OFFSEASON ACQUISITION AMIRITE??!?!?”

    PLAN THE PARADE!

  28. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Yeti: Sorry, Kinger, but that’s BS. He lost his job for displaying the same weaknesses in pre-season as he did for the entire second half of last season. You don’t need to invent a conspiracy theory to explain this. He played himself out of a job.

    – Not a conspiracy theory: just factual, with my opinion on Koski’s chances to succedd going forward, based on my understanding of the relationship between goalies and team play.

    – He was the starting goalie at the end of the year, and chased out the starter on merit. They brought in a 38 year old, who was “worse” in regular season, who was anointed the starter

    – My belief is that if the team plays better, Koski will be a NHL starting goalie. And last year, when he had solid D, and the the team played well he was fine. And most goals are scored high glove side, as that’s the hardest thing to defend, so this has been picked up on as “truth”. So I hope this team, and this Koski are both the real deal this year.

    – I bet that if the team palys better, his “weak glove” won’t appear as much.

    – He “lost his job” because the team was hot garbage in the 2nd half, without a NHL D corps, and they played him viirtually every game

    – Anyway that’s what fun, to have different opinions. I don’t think he’s a bad goalie. I think he played on a bad team. I think on a decent team he’s an NHL goalie. If we don’t make the playoffs this year, Koski won’t be a NHL goalie.

    – If that happens we will debate how much missing the playoffs was on Koski not being a NHL goalie or the team not being good enough

    – and if the team plays well, but Koski lets in more and plays bad, then I’m wrong, and he is indeed a bad goalie

  29. MoogerFuhger says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Thanks man! I live with my wife and 5 year-old in the outskirts of Guadalajara in El Bosque de la Primavera. Having grown up through the glory years, I can’t shake my Oilerness and so in all the places I have lived around the world, this blog has been a go-to staple since the early days. Kind of like a daily vitamin intake, you don’t need them as much as they just give you a boost.

  30. Woogie63 says:

    Knock, Knock Nuge

  31. Pescador says:

    leadfarmer:
    Lucic
    ” he successfully killed 2 min of powerplay time that he got yesterday”

    This is perfect

  32. Pescador says:

    MoogerFuhger,

    Why is this my first viewing of this epic handle?

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Hmmm.

    I have it 5-4 at EV with McDavid off.

    I had it as 3-3 heading into last night’s game and 97 off went 2-1 at EV. (Neal’s 5v5 goals and the Martin goal against)

    Got it.

    I include 4v4 and 3v3.

    Non-McDavids got a 4v4 goal vs LAK

  34. Pescador says:

    Reja:
    Mama Kass has quietly gotten 3 goals. Kass has figured it out just go to the net just like Maroon did when he potted 27 goals.

    Real Deal has 6pts. ALL GOALS!!! On pace for 164 goals
    Mama K. has 4pts. 3 GOALS!!! On pace for 82 goals
    crazy start

  35. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Got it.

    I include 4v4 and 3v3.

    Non-McDavids got a 4v4 goal vs LAK

    Makes sense. I (almost) always use 5v5 and forget that sometimes we’re talking about ES and confusion ensues.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pescador:
    MoogerFuhger,

    Why is this my first viewing of this epic handle?

    It’s good in so many ways.

  37. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: Makes sense. I (almost) always use 5v5 and forget that sometimes we’re talking about ES and confusion ensues.

    Yeah, tend to use 5v5 most of the time, but for tracking goal share I’m using EV so I can lump it all together.

  38. Pouzar says:

    Anyone else here use xGF(%) to analyze team/individual performance in games and overall performance?

  39. Primetime says:

    Was interesting watching the intermission panel during the Calgary game last night. They already knew that Neal had scored 4 goals, and were working REALLY hard to try and equate Lucic’s fight to the same level of effect on the game.

    I thought they were supposed to be unbiased or even critical of the home team? Where is their Remenda?!!!

  40. Reja says:

    Side: Where was he surfing when he signed in Toronto again?

    At the Bank of my family’s family family we never have to worry about money.

  41. Greenberg says:

    So nice to wake up to LT humor during a winning streak.
    Can we agree yet that it’s the right time to bring back Chiarelli?

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Can’t make the playoffs in October but you can sure make it real hard to do so.

    3 games in, 6 points in the bank.

    Also:

    Game 1 – got outplayed but battled through – relied on tending and superstars with little else from the bottom 6

    Game 2 – clearly the better team, played well except for a few big mistakes that ended up in the net. Played well, contributions from bottom 6, outscored mistakes

    Game 3 – played a good team in their building and essentially dominated from start to finish. Big scoring from the new guy but, also, the entire team played well in particular the 3rd line.

    Getting better every game.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    Importantly, 3 regulation wins.

    Lets not forget, the first tie break is no longer regulation + OT wins (excluding SO wins), its regulation wins (excluding OT and SO wins).

  44. MoogerFuhger says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    JAJAJAJAJA Thanks guys! Yes, very layered. Also, easily my favourite tandem of all time.

  45. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    I would disagree that the Isles are a good team. I think they ran off the deep end of the probability curve last year. None of the teams we played so far are a playoff team.
    I do like this schedule better than last years where we played murderers row for the first 20 games.

  46. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    MoogerFuhger,

    – Lets hope that KoskierSmittier will be a thang in 30 years…

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jurco’s skill has been evident every game he has played – since the first exhibition game – it took a while for Tip to actually give him a chance up the lineup, first in exhibition, then in the regular season but, right now, while Nygard is proving to be an NHL player, Jurco is winning the skill job.

    I believe a big issue with Jurco in the past has been consistency so lets see where this goes but, as of right now, Ken Holland has added two players in the off-season with legit top 6 skill – Neal and Jurco.

  48. Durag says:

    How many 3 game winning streaks did we have all of last year?

  49. BONE207 says:

    Goal diff…+5
    Neal…6-0-6
    Drai & CONNOR numbers…outstanding.

    I might get dressed up for Halloween this year & go celebrate. I’ll wear a splint. 🤪

  50. McNuge93 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Not a conspiracy theory: just factual, with my opinion on Koski’s chances to succedd going forward, based on my understanding of the relationship between goalies and team play.

    –He was the starting goalie at the end of the year, and chased out the starter on merit.They brought in a 38 year old, who was“worse” in regular season, who was anointed the starter

    –My belief is that if the team plays better, Koski will be a NHL starting goalie.And last year, when he had solid D, and the the team played well he was fine. And most goals are scored high glove side, as that’s the hardest thing to defend, so this has been picked up on as “truth”.So I hope this team, and this Koski are both the real deal this year.

    – I bet that if the team palys better, his “weak glove” won’t appear as much.

    – He “lost his job” because the team was hot garbage in the 2nd half, without a NHL D corps, and they played him viirtually every game

    – Anyway that’s what fun, to have different opinions.I don’t think he’s a bad goalie.I think he played on a bad team.I think on a decent team he’s an NHL goalie.If we don’t make the playoffs this year, Koski won’t be a NHL goalie.

    – If that happens we will debate how much missing the playoffs was on Koski not being a NHL goalie or the team not being good enough

    – and if the team plays well, but Koski lets in more and plays bad, then I’m wrong, and he is indeed a bad goalie

    I’m not sure we know who the starter is yet. I’m hoping Tippet plays the hot hand with some me limitations so neither goalie is overworked. They have both been hot and cold last year

  51. Ryan says:

    Greenberg:
    So nice to wake up to LT humor during a winning streak.
    Can we agree yet that it’s the right time to bring back Chiarelli?

    Nothing suggests expert management or coaching like having the second-highest PDO (5V5) in the league!

    Mostly driven by league -leading 15.8 SH%

    SV % is 18th at .903

    Let’s all bask in the warmth of the red-hot PDO. :p

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Those metrics don’t do the third line justice – that line was very good – offensive zone time, shift after shift after shift.

    Maybe they need to do a better job at directing pucks towards the net, and getting them on net, but the line was awesome to my eye, despite the metrics.

    Likely score effects in play with the Isles have a 73% CF in the third and that line did get hemmed in at least once in the 3rd.

  53. Yeti says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Just to clarify, I’m super happy if Koskinen shows good and stable form and plays half or more of the remaining games with success. I just don’t think you can argue – as you specifically did – that he lost the starter role because of favouritism of the coach towards Smith. That demotion was all of his own making… and Smith seemed to return the favour in game 2. Personally, I’d play Kosk in the next game.

  54. MoogerFuhger says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Wouldn’t that be something? Confidence breeds more confidence and that can go a long way.

    My boy is at JUST the right age to begin the Oilers indoctrination….. in truth, I kid but who knows. It’s a lot easier to be enthusiastic if you can at least play street hockey, sporting the jerseys of your favourite players. Hockey exists in less than 1% of the collective consciousness down here.

  55. jm363561 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    “At five-on-five through three games, Edmonton is 9-7 goal differential overall, 5-3 with McDavid and 4-4 without him. That’s a lot of progress but it’s very early days. Let’s talk when the Oilers are 20 games into the season.”

    ======

    I think we all know this 20 game thing is correct – injuries are going to hit; young players, in particular have to show they can maintain it through the grind; PDO coming back to earth; etc. …. but Hey, life is too short not to enjoy successes.

    A couple of detailed observations:

    1. Kassian not only has three goals to date, but also 16 goals in his last 40 games. A lot of love for Neal, understandably, but Hey, let’s spread it around for a man who might hit 30+ goals this year.

    2. Bear and Persson have done superbly having been catapulted into top 4 roles. I have seen comments that Persson has been slow, hesitant, etc. But Hey, give the guy a break. He has only played two competitive games in N America.

  56. ArmchairGM says:

    Since we’re all agreed (we are) that the current D pairings will likely stick around for a while, I thought I’d take a quick peek at their numbers thus far.

    1. Nurse-Bear

    31:52 TOI
    47.62 CF%
    51.06 FF%
    45.71 SF%
    25.00 GF% (1-3)
    49.69 xGF%
    54.84 SCF%
    63.64 HDCF%
    .905 PDO

    Notes: We are constantly looking at other teams and wondering how they can have raw rookies step into key roles and we can’t, so it’s pretty encouraging to see Bear playing 1st pairing TOI off the hop. I know their GF% looks bad, but 2 of those GA were on Smith v LA and the GA last night was due to missed coverage by both Granlund and Nygard. Teamwork takes time, this pairing is the goods so far.

    2. Klefbom-Persson

    26:40 TOI
    40.82 CF%
    43.24 FF%
    42.86 SF%
    60.00 GF% (3-2)
    50.68 xGF%
    44.44 SCF%
    55.56 HDCF%
    1.125 PDO

    Notes: riding the PDO pony to glory. Klefbom has been the 1st pairing defensemen that we always knew he could be (we did? We did!), and Persson is taking a little time to adjust and settle in. Can he hold down the 2RD position until December? If not, Benning could step in, so I don’t think there’s any cause to worry here. The pairing has been a little high-event for my liking. I think the negative corgi’s are mostly due to score effects against NYI as this pair was 50 CF% and 52.63 SF% in the LA game. They outscored NYI 2-0.Both GA came against LA: when Kopitar got body position on McDavid and when Amadio out maneuvered Cave. I’m beginning to see a trend here with missed coverage from the 4th line…

    3. Russell-Benning

    33:12 TOI
    50.88 CF%
    51.35 FF%
    59.09 SF%
    100.00 GF% (2-0)
    48.70 xGF%
    54.55 SCF%
    44.44 HDCF%
    1.154 PDO

    Notes: another high-PDO pairing, but most of the number comes from a perfect save percentage, which quite frankly isn’t unusual when you’re allowing just 16.27 SA/60 – less than half that of the other pairings. Benning’s goal differential is 5-0 at 5v5 overall, I think he’s proving once again that he’s too good for the 3rd pair in spite of his ragged preseason. I have no problem keeping him there until poor play or injury necessitates he move up, but I would like to see him with Klefbom at some point this season (for ~20 games) if we’re going to trade him this summer. The difference in value between a decent 2nd pairing RD and a good 3rd pairing RD is material.

  57. ArmchairGM says:

    Pouzar:
    Anyone else here use xGF(%) to analyze team/individual performance in games and overall performance?

    Certainly, although I admittedly don’t know what goes into it. If you have further info, please share!

  58. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Those metrics don’t do the third line justice – that line was very good – offensive zone time, shift after shift after shift.

    Maybe they need to do a better job at directing pucks towards the net, and getting them on net, but the line was awesome to my eye, despite the metrics.

    Likely score effects in play with the Isles have a 73% CF in the third and that line did get hemmed in at least once in the 3rd.

    That line was old-school.

    Reminded me of the days of Laraque cycling the puck purely to burn off the clock and let the skill players rest.

  59. powerploy says:

    I like these trends are they stat. significant?
    neil game 1 -0
    2-2
    3-4
    4-8?
    kassin game 1-1
    2-1
    3-1
    4-1?
    after 82 games Neil -I can’t count that high
    Kassin -82 games 82 goals
    oh if it were only true!

    This trend not so much
    Nuge- 3 games-0 points
    Thank god its not true!

  60. Ryan says:

    ArmchairGM: Certainly, although I admittedly don’t know what goes into it. If you have further info, please share!

    I’m still waiting for someone to translate this: https://rpubs.com/evolvingwild/395136/

    into the xGF(%) for dummies version.

  61. Pouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Certainly, although I admittedly don’t know what goes into it. If you have further info, please share!

    While I have been researching recently there are people here better equipped to explain it.
    For me, it gives a lot of context to some of the other numbers (Corgis for example).

  62. HugThePost says:

    Montreal has put McCarron on waivers…. there was a time when some here lusted for the guy to play for the Oil. Big, skilled, tough. What happened to him the last couple of years? Might he be the next Zack Attack reclamation project we take from the Habs?

  63. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I would disagree that the Isles are a good team.I think they ran off the deep end of the probability curve last year..

    – When up looked up year over year, it seems 10 teams “run off the deep end of the probability curve” 5 make +/1 18-25+ improvements, and and 5 more than 18 points less. It’s uncanny

    – I haven’t seen a normal distribution curve of team results YoY, but that’s “normal”

    – Volatility YoY in team performance isn’t appreciated enough generally (I’m not saying you don’t appreciate this curve, and I agree with you that NYI “ran off the deep end” last year)

  64. Jethro Tull says:

    Ryan: Nothing suggests expert management or coaching like having the second-highest PDO (5V5) in the league!

    Mostly driven by league -leading 15.8 SH%

    SV% is 18th at .903

    Let’s all bask in the warmth of the red-hot PDO. :p

    Is it early enough in the season that the SV% is still skewed from Smitty the Mitty’s little oopsies?

    Beware the PDO (luck + shitty opposition goalie + red hot shooting %) monster. I like it high, but not too high….

  65. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Game 3 – played a good team in their building and essentially dominated from start to finish. Big scoring from the new guy but, also, the entire team played well in particular the 3rd line.

    What to do about line 4? If Archibald and Chiasson are both good to go, do they both draw in on the 4th line with Haas? Granlund is unimpressive and Nygard is showing large gaps in coverage, which probably will take some time to iron out (new system, smaller ice, faster game, etc).

    How about

    Khaira-Sheahan-Archibald
    Chiasson-Haas-Russell

    Russell brings a little more speed to the 4th (because Chiasson) and Archibald worked very well with Khaira and Sheahan in the preseason.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    I also like that, moments after the game in his presser, Tip mentioned Neal’s 11-12 shot attempts not his 8 shots.

    We talked about him being “old school” and the game passing him by and this is a very very small point and shot attempts is not very advanced metric but that’s not something that would have been mentioned 7 minutes after the game ended a decade ago I wouldn’t think.

  67. Darth Tu says:

    HugThePost:
    Montreal has put McCarron on waivers….there was a time when some here lusted for the guy to play for the Oil.Big, skilled, tough.What happened to him the last couple of years?Might he be the next Zack Attack reclamation project we take from the Habs?

    Wasn’t he injured for pre-season? They’re probably hoping to get him game time in the AHL. However, as he’s a 1st round pick and a big lad I can see him getting grabbed by someone.

  68. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Yeti,

    – Nah, at this point we are just giving our opinions. Mine is I’m pretty sure Smith was pegged the “starter” based on his relationship with the new coach, not the pre-season.

    – Smith got the games with the most NHL and mostly NHL D, and looked better because of this, and Koski got the earlier games with less NHL’ers and looked worse.

    – We will never know, but I don’t think coaches use pre-season to figure out their “starter”

    – I believe the roster was entirely set before pre-season: all of Holland’s guys “won”, and then when they had some injuries, they went down the line. And if Smith had played pre-mono with the non-NHL’ers he wouldn’t have looked good either

    – So I leave with this: “I think Koski is an NHL starting goalie on a team that is decent. I don’t think he’s an elite goalie who can make the team better on his own (he’s non-Hasek, Price Bob division)

  69. stephen sheps says:

    Ryan: That line was old-school.

    Reminded me of the days of Laraque cycling the puck purely to burn off the clock and let the skill players rest.

    It reminded me even more of the old MGM line (pre-captain) Moreau-Grier-Marchant/Murray (yes I know Marchant and Rem the Gem were the C’s on that line…) but it was a similar cycle/grind style to how they played, and also similar to an old Holland era wings Grind Line. JJ actually reminded me a lot of Maltby last night. It was really fun to watch.

  70. blondebellend says:

    Durag:
    How many 3 game winning streaks did we have all of last year?

    We actually had three 3-game winning streaks and two 4-game winning streaks. Admittedly I was surprised it was that many as well.

  71. Farnsworth Paradox says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux,

    Long-time lurker and (almost) never poster. I generally agree that Koskinen is likely to see some improvement in his number this season if/as the team shows increased defensive awareness.

    I was talking with my brother the other night, though, and I think I finally hit upon why Koskinen *might* have a weak glove hand. It seemed odd to me, given his success in other leagues and even at the beginning of the previous year. I mean, how could one be a professional goalie with such an obvious “weakness”? It finally clicked for me (if I’m right) when my brother mentioned watching Smith in the net and how upright he tends to play. This is *exactly* what I had thought when I saw Koskinen at the beginning of last year – that he stood up a LOT.

    Now, given his size, this means that his arms used to hang down, to some extent (something like holding the arms at a 20 degree angle from the body) in order to cover the upper corners. As the season went on, though, he began standing up in the net less and less. I suspect this is down to goalie coaching, as Dubnyk and Talbot had the same issue – going down all the time in butterfly but sometimes too early. This is especially problematic for Koskinen who is, potentially, not as used to having to make a “high glove” type of save. It’s not that he can’t raise his arms up, obviously, but this just might not be quite as natural a movement for him as for someone who has learned to play butterfly all his career.

    It’s more than possible (likely, even) that I’m incorrect on this, and I really hope that the goalies or goalie coaches on the blog can let me know their thoughts and observations. But, it was something that certainly *seemed* right to my eye (which, as we know, can easily play tricks).

    Now, if there is any merit at all to my suggestion, I’ll be interested to see how the season progresses. If the team is less of a dumpster fire in their own zone, does this mean that he’ll go down less frequently? And does that mean that the weak glove is exposed less? Or is it fatigue/coaching/etc that causes the drop-down style of play that exposes a weaker glove?

    Anyways, just my two cents. Now, time to hide back under my rock. In stupid Calgary.

  72. McSorley33 says:

    npanciroli,

    I think a lot of the team corsi can be attributed to Cave getting… Caved.

    Jurco and Neal look like they could be the permanent 2nd line fixtures RNH has been begging for.
    ***********************************************************************************************
    Well, the numbers for lines 3 and 4 last night don’t look great…

  73. McSorley33 says:

    Reja,

    Kudos to nailing the score last night…..

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Rishaug is of the opinion that they should go back to Mikko.

    I personally have no idea. The last two games (Smith in game 2 and Koskinen in game 3) seemed like no-brainers to me but no obvious “right choice” to me for game 4.

    I think I lean towards Smith.

    ———————————————-

    I think Granlund is the obvious first deletion from the lineup for Archie/Chiasson but then its gets really tough.

    Russell is the other guy but that line was so good last night and I’m remiss to mess with it.

    Honestly, if they are both healthy, I insert Archie for Granlund but scratch Chiasson.

    Chiasson doesn’t deserve a healthy scratch but no other forward “deserves” to come out and I go with Archie over Chiasson right now because, he’s super fast and, with Granlund out, we lose a PK guy and Archie is a PK guy.

  75. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lost in all of this excitement..

    Neal on pace for 0 assists. Down from 12 a year ago. Not good.

  76. Ryan says:

    stephen sheps: It reminded me even more of the old MGM line (pre-captain) Moreau-Grier-Marchant/Murray (yes I know Marchant and Rem the Gem were the C’s on that line…) but it was a similar cycle/grind style to how they played, and also similar to an old Holland era wings Grind Line. JJ actually reminded me a lot of Maltby last night. It was really fun to watch.

    Yes, that’s a better description.

  77. PennersPancakes says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Lost in all of this excitement..

    Neal on pace for 0 assists. Down from 12 a year ago. Not good.

    Taking the pure goal scorer label to another level 😉

    Buddys going to have more goals than total points last season anyways.

  78. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Can’t make the playoffs in October but you can sure make it real hard to do so.

    3 games in, 6 points in the bank.

    Also:

    Game 1 – got outplayed but battled through – relied on tending and superstars with little else from the bottom 6

    Game 2 – clearly the better team, played well except for a few big mistakes that ended up in the net.Played well, contributions from bottom 6, outscored mistakes

    Game 3 – played a good team in their building and essentially dominated from start to finish. Big scoring from the new guy but, also, the entire team played well in particular the 3rd line.

    Getting better every game.

    That’s the key to making the playoffs winning your fair share of the toss up games. I wouldn’t bet against Leon and Connor making the playoffs like some posters on this form have. Jake and Elwood Blues once said we’re on a mission from god Leon and Connor or on a mission.

  79. flea says:

    Primetime:
    Was interesting watching the intermission panel during the Calgary game last night.They already knew that Neal had scored 4 goals, and were working REALLY hard to try and equate Lucic’s fight to the same level of effect on the game.

    I thought they were supposed to be unbiased or even critical of the home team?Where is their Remenda?!!!

    Yeah the Calgary media is pushing the Lucic effect agenda HARD!

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/early-returns-neal-lucic-swap-exactly-oilers-flames-hoped/

    Um – Mr. Francis, once again, the Flames LOST THE GAME! To what is supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league!!

  80. jp says:

    Yeti: Sorry, Kinger, but that’s BS. He lost his job for displaying the same weaknesses in pre-season as he did for the entire second half of last season. You don’t need to invent a conspiracy theory to explain this. He played himself out of a job.

    Koskinen had a .864 SV% in preseason. Smith had a .868.

    I agree with Kinger in this case that Smith’s prior relationship with Tippett earned him the game 1 start.

  81. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Those metrics don’t do the third line justice – that line was very good – offensive zone time, shift after shift after shift.

    This is why is dislike using corsi as a proxy for possession. Maybe with puck and player tracking we’ll get actual possession numbers.

  82. Reja says:

    McSorley33:
    Reja,

    Kudos to nailing the score last night…..

    I’m going to nail the Devil’s score as well. I first need to put on my Dave Dryden jersey and need to know who’s starting in net.

  83. Pouzar says:

    IMO

    Drai-McD-Kass
    Jurco-Nuge-Real
    Nygard-Haas-Chiasson
    Khaira-Sheahan-Russell (your mileage may vary here but I don’t think Archibald is owed anything).

  84. giddy says:

    I’m still not expecting a whole lot more from Neal, I’m more in the “20 goals ceiling” camp. Incredible though, he has to essentially completely fall to pieces and shoot the puck in our own net a couple times this year to make me even have the slightest tinge of regret over that trade. Just fantastic.

    Else, I do hope Oil can keep it up. Lots of good signs, and fantastic to get some confidence in your game early. Nygard is a good skater. Bottom six looks quicker this year as well. Defense is moving OK even with a top guy out for a few months. Positive signs everywhere!

  85. Darth Tu says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Lost in all of this excitement..

    Neal on pace for 0 assists. Down from 12 a year ago. Not good.

    Drai is also on pace for only 27.33333 goals. Down from 50 – totally justifying him being below all those eastern players in that top 25 under 25 list.

    Laughs.

  86. ArmchairGM says:

    Pouzar:
    IMO

    Drai-McD-Kass
    Jurco-Nuge-Real
    Nygard-Haas-Chiasson
    Khaira-Sheahan-Russell (your mileage may vary here but I don’t think Archibald is owed anything).

    And Chiasson is?

  87. yeraslob says:

    Couple of Ric Flairs up there.

  88. Jordan says:

    There’s sure a lot of important issues being looked at here as we bask in the afterglow of a 3 game winning streak.

    – how long should the parade be, and is it going down 104 ave, Jasper Ave, or both?
    – is anyone tracking actual zone time (O/N/D) for our lines? I suspect that would tell a very different story than the shot metrics, and provide greater insight into the impact of the bottom 2 lines.
    – How many 50 goal scorers can this Oilers team have in A season? 3? 4? More?
    – How disssapointing It is to see the former Oilers having such a significant impact on the flames early season success.
    – how much of the early season success is being driven by higher scoring chance conversation rates and may not be sustainable

    Oilers are out-perfoming my expectations. It’s a beautiful day.

  89. Pouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: And Chiasson is?

    Nope. I guess your mileage may vary there as well.

  90. Durag says:

    Pouzar:
    IMO

    Drai-McD-Kass
    Jurco-Nuge-Real
    Nygard-Haas-Chiasson
    Khaira-Sheahan-Russell (your mileage may vary here but I don’t think Archibald is owed anything).

    Nygard and Haas moved the puck around nicely last night, I’d definitely give Chiasson better odds of cashing in on some of that than Granlund doing whatever the hell he is currently doing. Is Gagner on that wing too wild of an idea?

  91. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: While I have been researching recently there are people here better equipped to explain it.
    For me, it gives a lot of context to some of the other numbers (Corgis for example).

    Most xGF% metrics are corsi that’s weighted by shot type and location.

    The specifics depend on which model you are using.

    They’re good, but I found they aren’t as good as corsi in terms of predicting future GF%, but they’re not bad.

    Corsi has its ups and downs, but on the whole is still decent as a predictor compared to the other public metrics.

  92. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: This is why is dislike using corsi as a proxy for possession. Maybe with puck and player tracking we’ll get actual possession numbers.

    When Vic first came up with corsi from the game sheets the NHL still published “zone time”

    The correlation was ~90% iirc.

    It’s not perfect but it’s still good.

    Extended shifts in the ozone without a shot attempt are the exception and not common imo

  93. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Jordan,

    – Playoff teams string together streaks of good hockey where they rack up points

    – We will see if this is a playoff team by how they handle the bad streaks. This team would lose a few, lose their confidence, and a few losses would turn into long long loss streaks

    – Lets see how they do after the goalie plays a stinker, and they lose a few in a row, their scoring goes though a cold patch, etc. That will tell us a lot IMO. But untill then keep winning baby!!!

  94. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Agreed. I’m not a believer in the Isles, the Kings suck, the Canucks are getting better but aren’t killers. We’ve done well but it’s not like it’s been against Nashville, St. Louis, and Colorado.

    The Isles are a better team than their rosters because of Trotz, but I’d Bettye’s don’t come close to what they did last year. If they are a playoff team at all it’s marginal.

  95. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: They’re good, but I found they aren’t as good as corsi in terms of predicting future GF%, but they’re not bad.

    I have read that xG are better for predicting future GF% past the 20 game mark…is that old info? xG Model specific?

  96. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Extended shifts in the ozone without a shot attempt are the exception and not common imo

    Agreed.

  97. yeraslob says:

    Jersey next, a team struggling out of the gate. Recent history has shown the Oilers to be just the tonic for struggling teams, however… a good chance to go 4-0. Which would be supercalifrag.

  98. ArmchairGM says:

    Pouzar: Nope. I guess your mileage may vary there as well.

    I’m thinking that Archibald brings more pace and determination that Tippett seems to like in his bottom-6 lines. I’m not too worried about who steps in – as I said earlier I could see the rationale for bringing both Granlund and Nygard out. We’ll see what Tippett thinks in 24 hours, I guess.

  99. Pouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m thinking that Archibald brings more pace and determination that Tippett seems to like in his bottom-6 lines. I’m not too worried about who steps in – as I said earlier I could see the rationale for bringing both Granlund and Nygard out. We’ll see what Tippett thinks in 24 hours, I guess.

    You lost me on Nygard.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: I have read that xG are better for predicting future GF% past the 20 game mark…is that old info? xG Model specific?

    Probably model specific.

    I checked Manny’s xGF% from Corsica.

    I looked at some years, but not all of NST’s too.

  101. Glovjuice says:

    It’s actually very simple. Different metrics need to be used to gauge success of different lines and pairs in relation to the coach’s objective for that line or pairing. Of course, this means team and line specific metrics (and, really, probably even player specific metrics) is what needs to be used for hockey.

  102. Oilman99 says:

    Primetime:
    Was interesting watching the intermission panel during the Calgary game last night.They already knew that Neal had scored 4 goals, and were working REALLY hard to try and equate Lucic’s fight to the same level of effect on the game.

    I thought they were supposed to be unbiased or even critical of the home team?Where is their Remenda?!!!

    Kelly Hrudy has a flaming “C” tattooed on his ass, it”s pretty painful watching him gush over the Flickers continually.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    IceSage:
    Dream scenario to start the season, Oilers not frittering anything away… yet.
    Who was always harping that this team needed a ‘first shot shooter’?

    Thomas Jurco covering until Benson (or Yamamoto) is ready to be a top 6 winger.

    James Neal covering until Makismov or Lavoie are ready to be a “one-shot scorer”.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gene Principe
    @GenePrincipe
    ·
    23m
    Dave Tippett walks out to talk to the media. He sees
    @jneal_18
    and says “Did you tell them about the new team rule?”.
    @EdmontonOilers
    says “Yes if you score 4 goals you get the day off”.

  105. Oilman99 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Not a conspiracy theory: just factual, with my opinion on Koski’s chances to succedd going forward, based on my understanding of the relationship between goalies and team play.

    –He was the starting goalie at the end of the year, and chased out the starter on merit.They brought in a 38 year old, who was“worse” in regular season, who was anointed the starter

    –My belief is that if the team plays better, Koski will be a NHL starting goalie.And last year, when he had solid D, and the the team played well he was fine. And most goals are scored high glove side, as that’s the hardest thing to defend, so this has been picked up on as “truth”.So I hope this team, and this Koski are both the real deal this year.

    – I bet that if the team palys better, his “weak glove” won’t appear as much.

    – He “lost his job” because the team was hot garbage in the 2nd half, without a NHL D corps, and they played him viirtually every game

    – Anyway that’s what fun, to have different opinions.I don’t think he’s a bad goalie.I think he played on a bad team.I think on a decent team he’s an NHL goalie.If we don’t make the playoffs this year, Koski won’t be a NHL goalie.

    – If that happens we will debate how much missing the playoffs was on Koski not being a NHL goalie or the team not being good enough

    – and if the team plays well, but Koski lets in more and plays bad, then I’m wrong, and he is indeed a bad goalie

    Until he shows he can catch a puck, there is no doubt who is the starting goalie. Playing against Eastern div. Teams is a break for Koskinen because they aren’t programmed to shoot top glove hand like the western teams.

  106. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    “At five-on-five through three games, Edmonton is 9-7 goal differential overall, 5-3 with McDavid and 4-4 without him. That’s a lot of progress but it’s very early days. Let’s talk when the Oilers are 20 games into the season.”

    You totally just stole WG’s thunder. What’s he going to post now?

    Oilers 50% with McDavid off the ice = Cup!

  107. Rocknrolla says:

    Goddammit I have a pep in my step today….. Keep catching myself laughing out loud about the “Real Deal” James Neal…..my god it’s been a long time since I felt like this about this team.

    Let me just have this one day!

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja:
    I can’t wait till Bouchard gets called up our powerplay will be deadly especially with Neal down low. Am I the only one that thinks Kelfbom handles the puck awkwardly (no touch) on the PP unlike Larry Murphy I mean Evan the point hound Bouchard

    Unless there is an infux of injuries on the back-end, which is possible, you will very likely be waiting a while. Likely 4-6 months, possibly 11.

    Joel Persson has high PP acumen and, of course, Bear’s skill set also lends itself to PP time.

    Lots of options on the current team and the current team is rolling at 33.33% PP success.

  109. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yeti: Sorry, Kinger, but that’s BS. He lost his job for displaying the same weaknesses in pre-season as he did for the entire second half of last season. You don’t need to invent a conspiracy theory to explain this. He played himself out of a job.

    Not to mention that he never really earned the starters job in the first instance – somewhat gifted, just like $10M plus.

    Of course, he deserves the right to compete for the job this season and that is what is happening.

    Truth be told, its better for the Oilers organization going forward if Koskinen proves to be the better goalie and an, at least average, NHL starter.

  110. Cassandra says:

    ArmchairGM: This is why is dislike using corsi as a proxy for possession. Maybe with puck and player tracking we’ll get actual possession numbers.

    Who cares about possession time? What matters is goals. And what leads to goals is shots.

    Possession is a means to an end, not an end in itself.

  111. Cassandra says:

    flea: Yeah the Calgary media is pushing the Lucic effect agenda HARD!

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/early-returns-neal-lucic-swap-exactly-oilers-flames-hoped/

    Um – Mr. Francis, once again, the Flames LOST THE GAME! To what is supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league!!

    In an industry full of hacks, Eric Francis is on a short list for the hackiest of the bunch.

  112. who says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Since we’re all agreed (we are) that the current D pairings will likely stick around for a while, I thought I’d take a quick peek at their numbers thus far.

    1. Nurse-Bear

    31:52 TOI
    47.62 CF%
    51.06 FF%
    45.71 SF%
    25.00 GF% (1-3)
    49.69 xGF%
    54.84 SCF%
    63.64 HDCF%
    .905 PDO

    Notes: We are constantly looking at other teams and wondering how they can have raw rookies step into key roles and we can’t, so it’s pretty encouraging to see Bear playing 1st pairing TOI off the hop. I know their GF% looks bad, but 2 of those GA were on Smith v LA and the GA last night was due to missed coverage by both Granlund and Nygard. Teamwork takes time, this pairing is the goods so far.

    2. Klefbom-Persson

    26:40 TOI
    40.82 CF%
    43.24 FF%
    42.86 SF%
    60.00 GF% (3-2)
    50.68 xGF%
    44.44 SCF%
    55.56 HDCF%
    1.125 PDO

    Notes: riding the PDO pony to glory. Klefbom has been the 1st pairing defensemen that we always knew he could be (we did? We did!), and Persson is taking a little time to adjust and settle in. Can he hold down the 2RD position until December? If not, Benning could step in, so I don’t think there’s any cause to worry here. The pairing has been a little high-event for my liking. I think the negative corgi’s are mostly due to score effects against NYI as this pair was 50 CF% and 52.63 SF% in the LA game. They outscored NYI 2-0.Both GA came against LA: when Kopitar got body position on McDavid and when Amadio out maneuvered Cave. I’m beginning to see a trend here with missed coverage from the 4th line…

    3. Russell-Benning

    33:12 TOI
    50.88 CF%
    51.35 FF%
    59.09 SF%
    100.00 GF% (2-0)
    48.70 xGF%
    54.55 SCF%
    44.44 HDCF%
    1.154 PDO

    Notes: another high-PDO pairing, but most of the number comes from a perfect save percentage, which quite frankly isn’t unusual when you’re allowing just 16.27 SA/60 – less than half that of the other pairings. Benning’s goal differential is 5-0 at 5v5 overall, I think he’s proving once again that he’s too good for the 3rd pair in spite of his ragged preseason. I have no problem keeping him there until poor play or injury necessitates he move up, but I would like to see him with Klefbom at some point this season (for ~20 games) if we’re going to trade him this summer. The difference in value between a decent 2nd pairing RD and a good 3rd pairing RD is material.

    I know the stats love him, but, you have to squint really hard to see Benning as anything more than a 3rd pairing guy.
    That being said, he might be better than Persson. Too soon to tell.

  113. dustrock says:

    Score effects are real, I felt the bottom 6 was fast and heavy on the forecheck in the first 2 periods and the NYI defence was having a tough time dealing with it.

    Not sure it was a total spanking of the Islanders but it seemed like the best team effort of the young season.

    Defence still looks a little wonky from time to time but that’s pretty much expected.

  114. Adam Wu says:

    Cassandra: Who cares about possession time?What matters is goals.And what leads to goals is shots.

    Possession is a means to an end, not an end in itself.

    But possession is what leads to shots.

    And possession also leads to the other side not getting as many shots.

    Which is why a lot of people suspect that true possession time numbers would be more informative than CORSI and other related shot metrics, if we had them.

  115. who says:

    HugThePost:
    Montreal has put McCarron on waivers….there was a time when some here lusted for the guy to play for the Oil.Big, skilled, tough.What happened to him the last couple of years?Might he be the next Zack Attack reclamation project we take from the Habs?

    He is certainly big.
    He might be tough.
    No way in hell is he skilled.
    And he is sloooooowwwwww. The word plodding leaps to mind.

  116. Side says:

    Adam Wu: But possession is what leads to shots.

    And possession also leads to the other side not getting as many shots.

    Which is why a lot of people suspect that true possession time numbers would be more informative than CORSI and other related shot metrics, if we had them.

    And in a 60 minute game, possession time does matter when your team is up and your team has the puck meaning the opposition has less time to work with.

  117. Cassandra says:

    Adam Wu: But possession is what leads to shots.

    And possession also leads to the other side not getting as many shots.

    Which is why a lot of people suspect that true possession time numbers would be more informative than CORSI and other related shot metrics, if we had them.

    What you are suggesting is impossible. As your own post says, possession time is a means to an end. Now shots are also a means to an end (goals). However, shots are a necessary means to the end of goals, while possession time is not necessary. That is, you can have both shots and goals without possession time but you cannot have a goal without a shot.

    No empirical study could ever refute that, and anyone who thinks otherwise hasn’t thought the problem through.

    Everyone agrees that goals are the only thing that matters (in the end). At the same time, goals are capricious. The question, then, is what are the proximate causes of goals that might be less capricious. The contenders here are shots, shot quality, and possession time. Of these, clearly possession time is less proximate than the other two. Now, it may be the case that possession time leads to either more shots or better quality of shots. Regarding the former, who cares if that is true so long as you already know how many shots you have. Regarding the latter, I am quite skeptical, as possession time also leads to quick breaks the other way (i.e. giving up higher quality shots).

    So it is a red herring from an evaluative standpoint. Nothing to see here.

    Now, where it would have value is from a formative standpoint. But we aren’t talking about that.

  118. OilSlickster says:

    Pouzar,

    I’d rather see the speed of Archibald with Nygard- and Haas then the slow boots of Chiasson. Just my opinion 🙂

  119. ArmchairGM says:

    Pouzar: You lost me on Nygard.

    I explained it earlier: Nygard is showing gaps in coverage, which is to be expected (new system, smaller ice, faster game, etc) and probably will take some time to iron out.

    I’m not arguing that he /should/ sit next game, I’m just saying I can see the rationale if he does.

  120. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: Unless there is an infux of injuries on the back-end, which is possible, you will very likely be waiting a while. Likely 4-6 months, possibly 11.

    Joel Persson has high PP acumen and, of course, Bear’s skill set also lends itself to PP time.

    Lots of options on the current team and JAMES NEAL is rolling at 33.33% PP success.

    FTFY.

  121. ArmchairGM says:

    who: I know the stats love him, but, you have to squint really hard to see Benning as anything more than a 3rd pairing guy.
    That being said, he might be better than Persson.Too soon to tell.

    Exactly. It’s nice to know we have cover, even with Larsson out.

    My goodness, if the rookies keep up their stellar play in the top-4 we might be trading Benning at the TDL and Larsson + Russell in June and STILL have a backlog of defensemen!

  122. jm363561 says:

    Cassandra: What you are suggesting is impossible.As your own post says, possession time is a means to an end.Now shots are also a means to an end (goals).However, shots are a necessary means to the end of goals, while possession time is not necessary.That is, you can have both shots and goals without possession time but you cannot have a goal without a shot.

    No empirical study could ever refute that, and anyone who thinks otherwise hasn’t thought the problem through.

    Everyone agrees that goals are the only thing that matters (in the end).At the same time, goals are capricious.The question, then, is what are the proximate causes of goals that might be less capricious.The contenders here are shots, shot quality, and possession time.Of these, clearly possession time is less proximate than the other two.Now, it may be the case that possession time leads to either more shots or better quality of shots.Regarding the former, who cares if that is true so long as you already know how many shots you have.Regarding the latter, I am quite skeptical, as possession time also leads to quick breaks the other way (i.e. giving up higher quality shots).

    So it is a red herring from an evaluative standpoint.Nothing to see here.

    Now, where it would have value is from a formative standpoint.But we aren’t talking about that.

    =====
    A very interesting thread, and one of many reasons why I love Lowetide. As goals, shots, possession data, and estimate of shot quality are all – I think – readily available, it should be relatively easy to compute which variable is most likely to predict goals.

  123. ArmchairGM says:

    dustrock:
    Score effects are real, I felt the bottom 6 was fast and heavy on the forecheck in the first 2 periods and the NYI defence was having a tough time dealing with it.

    Not sure it was a total spanking of the Islanders but it seemed like the best team effort of the young season.

    Defence still looks a little wonky from time to time but that’s pretty much expected.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20192020&game=20037

    The gameflow chart and heatmap here might help. You can see the score effects taking hold in the last 10 minutes of the third period, but it looks like Tippett’s system kept most of the shots further out.

  124. Pouzar says:

    jm363561: it should be relatively easy to compute which variable is most likely to predict goals.

    xG from what I read.

  125. jm363561 says:

    ArmchairGM: Exactly. It’s nice to know we have cover, even with Larsson out.

    My goodness, if the rookies keep up their stellar play in the top-4 we might be trading Benning at the TDL and Larsson + Russell in June and STILL have a backlog of defensemen!

    ======
    Sometimes you have to laugh. Preseason, the annual distress of a lack of RD was in full swing. Now we are talking about trading them away. Man, things change fast. Personally, I hope we can keep Larsson, Benning, Bear and Persson, and hope the last two can sustain their current standard through the grind.

  126. Munny says:

    Shout out to all the new commenters and rarely-post commenters above. Welcome y’all! And don’t go back to being strangers. All voices welcome and the more the merrier.

  127. russ99 says:

    I thought Nuge got an assist on one of the Neal goals, did they take it away?

    Been pleasantly surprised with Benning in the D-zone this year, seems to be some improvement, but surely playing better as a 5-man team to deny easy looks and odd man situations helps as well.

  128. duct tape and foil says:

    Lost in the Neal frenzy was the absolutely stunning game (and especially first period) that Bear put up. Multiple gorgeous plays in his own end to elude the forecheck and snappy passes up to breaking forwards. So impressed with his play this year. Proper development is a thing and it’s showing the rest of the kids in Bako what commitment to off-season training can achieve. We might have our own little Spurgeon developed in-house. I keep him bolted to Nurse.

    As for Persson, let’s see, and if he’s not up to it then Benning can slide up to play with Klef.

    Down the road Russell-Larsson might be the veteran shutdown/PK/d-zone pair when Lars gets back.

  129. Darth Tu says:

    ArmchairGM: http://naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20192020&game=20037

    The gameflow chart and heatmap here might help. You can see the score effects taking hold in the last 10 minutes of the third period, but it looks like Tippett’s system kept most of the shots further out.

    My office seems to have blocked naturalstattrick.com – curses!

    Did we defend the homeplate defensive zone effectively?

  130. Jethro Tull says:

    russ99:
    I thought Nuge got an assist on one of the Neal goals, did they take it away?

    Been pleasantly surprised with Benning in the D-zone this year, seems to be some improvement, but surely playing better as a 5-man team to deny easy looks and odd man situations helps as well.

    Benning is playing less, against lesser opposition, so his comfort level should go up. Good for him, he’s doing well.

  131. Craig Zonit says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Lost in the Neal frenzy was the absolutely stunning game (and especially first period) that Bear put up.

    Seconding this. Very smooth and evasive in getting set to make an accurate first pass. Calm feet. Loved his game, remember him battling Anders Lee in front of the net at one point and thinking how far he seems to have come. More please.

  132. Munny says:

    At numbers 5v5:

    HDCF% 56%
    HDGF% 62.5%

    These are the numbers driving the bus to my eye.

    When the Oil are leading their FF% drops from about 44% to 31% but they’re still over 50% on HDCF%.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar:
    Anyone else here use xGF(%) to analyze team/individual performance in games and overall performance?

    How are the “expected” metrics determined?

  134. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: How are the “expected” metrics determined?

    From Corsica:

    http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/03/03/shot-quality-and-expected-goals-part-i/

    Shot type (Wrist shot, slap shot, deflection, etc.)
    Shot distance (Adjusted4 distance from net)
    Shot angle (Angle in absolute degrees from the central line normal to the goal line)
    Rebounds (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rebound)
    Rush shots (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rush shot)
    Strength state (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was taken on the powerplay)

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    I would disagree that the Isles are a good team.I think they ran off the deep end of the probability curve last year.None of the teams we played so far are a playoff team.
    I do like this schedule better than last years where we played murderers row for the first 20 games.

    So it was you that called in to Overtime last night and got ripped apart by Rob Brown….

    Maybe, maybe not, but they are essentially the same team as last year with Lehner replaced by Varlamov – that team made it to round 2.

    Supposedly the Oilers are only marginally improved from last year but they have 3 regulation wins and a product on the ice that “looks” much better – so far.

    Point kind of being that the Oilers have looked better, game over game over game so far.

  136. Derek says:

    The Real Steal James Neal. I live in Calgary and last night was lovely.

  137. Wilde says:

    Munny:
    At numbers 5v5:

    HDCF%56%
    HDGF%62.5%

    These are the numbers driving the bus to my eye.

    When the Oil are leading their FF% drops from about 44% to 31%but they’re still over 50% on HDCF%.

    HDGF% being that high is not necessarily a good thing

  138. Primetime says:

    russ99:
    I thought Nuge got an assist on one of the Neal goals, did they take it away?

    Nuge did all the work on Neal’s first goal but did not get credited with the assist. He completely harassed Brassard into coughing up the puck which Neal then buried, but since RNH didn’t actually touch the puck, the goal was unassisted.
    Too bad, he deserved at least a point.

  139. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: Nothing suggests expert management or coaching like having the second-highest PDO (5V5) in the league!

    Mostly driven by league -leading 15.8 SH%

    SV% is 18th at .903

    Let’s all bask in the warmth of the red-hot PDO. :p

    Their PDO last night was 1.136 but they didn’t win because of a PDO heater, they won because they were the better team from start to finish.

    I’m not concerned about “how they are winning”.

    They’ve got better game over game over game and, the last two games, the superior team.

  140. ArmchairGM says:

    duct tape and foil: Lost in the Neal frenzy was the absolutely stunning game (and especially first period) that Bear put up. Multiple gorgeous plays in his own end to elude the forecheck and snappy passes up to breaking forwards.

    I hope Smith noted this from the bench. He got into a lot of trouble on Saturday night when he flung errant “passes” past Bear who was open and waiting for the puck.

  141. ArmchairGM says:

    Darth Tu: My office seems to have blocked naturalstattrick.com – curses!

    Did we defend the homeplate defensive zone effectively?

    Better than NYI did. Most of their shots came from the point – it looked like a Hitchcock heatmap.

  142. ArmchairGM says:

    Jethro Tull: Benning is playing less, against lesser opposition, so his comfort level should go up.Good for him, he’s doing well.

    Actually, no. Benning’s TOI vs Elites is the highest of all the D, as a percentage of total TOI. Looks like Tippett isn’t doing much sheltering at all.

    http://puckiq.com/teams/edm?season=&from_date=1569902400000&to_date=1570593600000&tier=Elite&positions=d&min_toi=&max_toi=

  143. Pouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not concerned about “how they are winning”.

    Special teams play a big part too.

  144. Nit64 says:

    Munny: All voices welcome and the merrier the more

    FTFY

  145. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: What to do about line 4? If Archibald and Chiasson are both good to go, do they both draw in on the 4th line with Haas? Granlund is unimpressive and Nygard is showing large gaps in coverage, which probably will take some time to iron out (new system, smaller ice, faster game, etc).

    How about

    Khaira-Sheahan-Archibald
    Chiasson-Haas-Russell

    Russell brings a little more speed to the 4th (because Chiasson) and Archibald worked very well with Khaira and Sheahan in the preseason.

    I think Granlund is the obvious first deletion from the lineup for Archie/Chiasson but then its gets really tough.

    Russell is the one guy but that line was so good last night and I’m remiss to mess with it.

    Honestly, if they are both healthy, I insert Archie for Granlund but scratch Chiasson.

    Chiasson doesn’t deserve a healthy scratch but no other forward “deserves” to come out and I go with Archie over Chiasson right now because, he’s super fast and, with Granlund out, we lose a PK guy and Archie is a PK guy.

  146. Side says:

    “PDO heater” sounds very familiar.

    I swear I read that being credited a lot at the beginning of, and during the 2016 season too.

    I can’t remember at what point people stopped doubting the Oilers in that season, but I am curious to go back and read some of the 2016 game day threads.

    I know it’s only 3 games but so far this team has a strong whiff of 2016.

    I’m all aboard. I think this team will be good this year and will make the playoffs (unless there are some catastrophic injuries of course).

  147. Munny says:

    Pouzar: From Corsica:

    http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2016/03/03/shot-quality-and-expected-goals-part-i/

    Shot type (Wrist shot, slap shot, deflection, etc.)
    Shot distance (Adjusted4 distance from net)
    Shot angle (Angle in absolute degrees from the central line normal to the goal line)
    Rebounds (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rebound)
    Rush shots (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rush shot)
    Strength state (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was taken on the powerplay)

    That’s a lot of trust in various weightings. Are they data driven?

  148. Nit64 says:

    jm363561: As goals, shots, possession data, and estimate of shot quality are all – I think – readily available, it should be relatively easy to compute which variable is most likely to predict goals.

    Depends on the timeframe measured. Right now you only have the a few games to sample so its all about the most frequent events. During the course of the season the sample size grows to the point where other measures catch up or pass. In March some have argued that goals scored over 75 games has more predictive power. Certainly goals are the worst predictor of goals this early.

  149. jp says:

    OriginalPouzar:

    Of course, he deserves the right to compete for the job this season and that is what is happening.

    Truth be told, its better for the Oilers organization going forward if Koskinen proves to be the better goalie and an, at least average, NHL starter.

    Holland’s walking around money next summer depends on it!!

  150. geowal says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Not a conspiracy theory: just factual, with my opinion on Koski’s chances to succedd going forward, based on my understanding of the relationship between goalies and team play.

    –He was the starting goalie at the end of the year, and chased out the starter on merit.They brought in a 38 year old, who was“worse” in regular season, who was anointed the starter

    –My belief is that if the team plays better, Koski will be a NHL starting goalie.And last year, when he had solid D, and the the team played well he was fine. And most goals are scored high glove side, as that’s the hardest thing to defend, so this has been picked up on as “truth”.So I hope this team, and this Koski are both the real deal this year.

    – I bet that if the team palys better, his “weak glove” won’t appear as much.

    – He “lost his job” because the team was hot garbage in the 2nd half, without a NHL D corps, and they played him viirtually every game

    – Anyway that’s what fun, to have different opinions.I don’t think he’s a bad goalie.I think he played on a bad team.I think on a decent team he’s an NHL goalie.If we don’t make the playoffs this year, Koski won’t be a NHL goalie.

    – If that happens we will debate how much missing the playoffs was on Koski not being a NHL goalie or the team not being good enough

    – and if the team plays well, but Koski lets in more and plays bad, then I’m wrong, and he is indeed a bad goalie

    This is the definition of all opinion, no fact.

  151. Reja says:

    Any news on who the starter is? I say 90 percent it’s Tippett’s boy Smith and he responds. Side note Chase will silence all the negative Nancy’s and pot a goal his first game back.

  152. TeeVee says:

    flea: Yeah the Calgary media is pushing the Lucic effect agenda HARD!

    https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/early-returns-neal-lucic-swap-exactly-oilers-flames-hoped/

    Um – Mr. Francis, once again, the Flames LOST THE GAME! To what is supposed to be one of the worst teams in the league!!

    This article left me speechless.

  153. Reja says:

    If you can’t see this team transforming with the perfect coach your not paying attention. Tippett’s going to have this unbalanced team balanced right before your eyes.

  154. Nit64 says:

    ArmchairGM:
    “Alright, everyone calm the hell down! It’s three games! It’s a very small sample size. Still, maybe you could celebrate a little. Nothing crazy. A six-inch sub or a ceramic elephant. Do not make a big deal out of it. Understated. Subtle. LIKE A FOUR GOAL GAME FROM YOUR OFFSEASON ACQUISITION AMIRITE??!?!?”

    PLAN THE PARADE!

    Like someone 😉 on the Athletic zeroed in on this morning: The best part of the quick start is that it gives Tippet more runway to manage the extensive Euros and the Bear auditions.

  155. SwedishPoster says:

    Calm? Pffft I’m getting my ”Oilers 19/20 Stanley Cup Champs” face tattoo later this week.

  156. SwedishPoster says:

    (Funny enough autocorrect on my phone wants to turn tattoo into the swedish word for drunk driving)

  157. JimmyV1965 says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Lost in the Neal frenzy was the absolutely stunning game (and especially first period) that Bear put up. Multiple gorgeous plays in his own end to elude the forecheck and snappy passes up to breaking forwards. So impressed with his play this year. Proper development is a thing and it’s showing the rest of the kids in Bako what commitment to off-season training can achieve. We might have our own little Spurgeon developed in-house. I keep him bolted to Nurse.

    As for Persson, let’s see, and if he’s not up to it then Benning can slide up to play with Klef.

    Down the road Russell-Larsson might be the veteran shutdown/PK/d-zone pair when Lars gets back.

    I’m loving Bear right now. Looks very poised and makes plays in all three zones. Miles and miles to go of course, but lovin the up arrows.

  158. jp says:

    Jethro Tull: Benning is playing less, against lesser opposition, so his comfort level should go up.Good for him, he’s doing well.

    ArmchairGM: Actually, no. Benning’s TOI vs Elites is the highest of all the D, as a percentage of total TOI. Looks like Tippett isn’t doing much sheltering at all.

    http://puckiq.com/teams/edm?season=&from_date=1569902400000&to_date=1570593600000&tier=Elite&positions=d&min_toi=&max_toi=

    Zone starts are also 2nd most difficult on the team after Russell. Any improvement isn’t due to sheltering.

    Thanks for posting Armchair, I didn’t realize PuckIQ was updated for this year (and Persson, Nygard, Haas are listed as “unknown”, lol)

  159. Zelepukin says:

    Reja:
    Any news on who the starter is? I say 90 percent it’s Tippett’s boy Smith and he responds. Side note Chase will silence all the negative Nancy’s and pot a goal his first game back.

    Going to have to be 5v5 because no way we’re taking Neal off the PP.

  160. ArmchairGM says:

    SwedishPoster:
    (Funny enough autocorrect on my phone wants to turn tattoo into the swedish word for drunk driving)

    Seems apropos.

  161. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: I didn’t realize PuckIQ was updated for this year

    Neither did I, I just discovered it by accident. Love the new date range feature!

  162. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ya, Chiarelli really hurt this team with some massive trade mistakes. He gets credit for winning some smaller ones, namely the Maroon acquisition and the Talbot acquisition (well, for a couple of years) but one smaller one that is currently paying big dividends was Scrivens for Kassian.

    I know the now retire Ben Scrivens is a Canadian Olympian (ha) but that trade is currently helping quite a bit.

  163. dustrock says:

    Saw a couple of clips of Looch last night and he really did lose his hands.

    Funny, I’m a soccer player not a hockey player, but all the old guys I played with who had broken down bodies still had the great feet and sense they had when they played at a high level and usually made us young bucks look pretty stupid.

    I thought the hands would be the last to go for Lucic but it’s like he can’t even handle the puck anymore.

    Neal didn’t lose his hands, but he had to get into Brind’Amour territory and get in shape and reset. Early days but it’s been a while since we’ve had a guy who just gets shoots anywhere near the net.

    Chiasson somewhat last year, but not to Neal’s level.

  164. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar:
    IMO

    Drai-McD-Kass
    Jurco-Nuge-Real
    Nygard-Haas-Chiasson
    Khaira-Sheahan-Russell (your mileage may vary here but I don’t think Archibald is owed anything).

    I agree that there is only one spot available for Thursday’s game but, to me, Archibald should get it.

    He’s faster than Chiasson, real fast actually, which is what coach wants in the bottom six and, with Granlund out, that’s a PK guy and Archie can replace those minutes.

  165. OriginalPouzar says:

    Lets be fair here guys, aside from leading the league in fights and PIMs, Lucic ALMOST recorded his second shot on net of the season (and first shot at even strength) last night.

  166. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice:
    It’s actually very simple. Different metrics need to be used to gauge success of different lines and pairs in relation to the coach’s objective for that line or pairing. Of course, this means team and line specific metrics (and, really, probably even player specific metrics) is what needs to be used for hockey.

    Huh – this is an interesting point that’s never really occurred to me.

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cassandra: Who cares about possession time?What matters is goals.And what leads to goals is shots.

    Possession is a means to an end, not an end in itself.

    High possession time will help lead to lower goals against.

    If that 3rd line can spend that amount of time in the offensive zone that, non-McDavid offensive zone time, is a big positive.

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cassandra: What you are suggesting is impossible.As your own post says, possession time is a means to an end.Now shots are also a means to an end (goals).However, shots are a necessary means to the end of goals, while possession time is not necessary.That is, you can have both shots and goals without possession time but you cannot have a goal without a shot.

    No empirical study could ever refute that, and anyone who thinks otherwise hasn’t thought the problem through.

    Everyone agrees that goals are the only thing that matters (in the end).At the same time, goals are capricious.The question, then, is what are the proximate causes of goals that might be less capricious.The contenders here are shots, shot quality, and possession time.Of these, clearly possession time is less proximate than the other two.Now, it may be the case that possession time leads to either more shots or better quality of shots.Regarding the former, who cares if that is true so long as you already know how many shots you have.Regarding the latter, I am quite skeptical, as possession time also leads to quick breaks the other way (i.e. giving up higher quality shots).

    So it is a red herring from an evaluative standpoint.Nothing to see here.

    Now, where it would have value is from a formative standpoint.But we aren’t talking about that.

    1) Possession time likely has a fairly strong correlation to shots – it doesn’t seem to so far for the Oilers but that is likely a function of sample size

    2) If a team has posession, that means no shots against are happening and, given you cannot have a goal without a shot, that means no goals against are happening. No empirical study could ever refute that and anyone who thinks otherwise hasn’t thought the problem through.

  169. New Improved Darkness says:

    Wikipedia on Fugue state:

    Dissociative fugue usually involves unplanned travel or wandering and is sometimes accompanied by the establishment of a new identity.

    Sometimes dissociative fugue cannot be diagnosed until people abruptly return to their pre-fugue identity and are distressed to find themselves in unfamiliar circumstances, sometimes with awareness of “lost time”.

    Rip? Rip! Is that you?

    Van Winkle does not ask who they are or how they know his name. Instead, he begins to drink some of their liquor and soon falls asleep. When he awakens on the mountain, he discovers shocking changes: his musket is rotting and rusty, his beard is a foot long, and his ceramic elephant is nowhere to be found.

    Clearly an allegory on the predatory horrors of the American Indian boarding schools, modern commentators remain divided on the precise symbolism of the ceramic elephant: elephants being native to India, not American Indians; and with ceramics being relatively unknown among First Nation cultures in the Atlantic Northeast.

    Some critics speculate that the ceramic elephant might have originated with the Hohokam culture, geographically based in the unforgiving Sonoran Desert region, this conceivably being a veiled authorial reference to the O’odham term for their own culture, huhu-kam (from which Hohokam derives) in its common mistranslation as “all used up”.

    As noted in Wikipedia, in 1680, due to anti-miscegenation laws, a mixed-race girl born to an Indian father and an Irish mother is classified as ‘mulatto’ and sold into slavery. As yet unrecorded in Wikipedia is her intrepid escape from slavery and flight south, where she wandered Moses-like—parched and famished—through the Sonoran Desert for many solitary weeks, until the ebony-skinned, blue-eyed, red-haired runagate was discovered by the local Hohokam tribespeople, nearly comatose, clutching a most mysterious and awe-inspiring amulet in the shape of a giant mastodon with a muscular, serpentine snout; promptly replicated in ceramic arts by her saviors as a sacred, talismanic figurine.

    In this view, the ceramic elephant symbolizes the comprehensive triad of oppression visited upon the Indigenous Americans: their original, tragic mis-identification by a near-sighted Cristobal Colon; their subsequent abuse under the institution of slavery; and the cultural genocide of American Indian boarding school system.

    Long would the reawakened Rip Van Winkle wander the Catskill outback before finally recovering the ceramic elephant of his early life from the treasure hoard of a giant raven named Mog—foremost of the eldest—who first demanded that Rip answer three highly impertinent questions:

    WHATTHEFUCK??!?!?
    AMIRITE??!?!?
    AMIRITE??!?!?

    But Rip—who still professed himself a faithful subject of King George III—maintained a stiff upper lip and a stony countenance, and the elephant was soon again his. History does not record his three shrewdly taciturn answers to the husky raven’s raucous challenge.

    Edit: florid substitution in place of the word “she”.

  170. rickithebear says:

    Munny: That’s a lot of trust in various weightings.Are they data driven?

    Homeplate x,y location – shot density
    Open/ closed – shot quality ( scoreable/non scoreable)
    Shot style – release rate vs targeting

    45 yr of differentiation for me!

  171. OriginalPouzar says:

    jm: ======
    Sometimes you have to laugh. Preseason, the annual distress of a lack of RD was in full swing. Now we are talking about trading them away. Man, things change fast. Personally, I hope we can keep Larsson, Benning, Bear and Persson, and hope the last two can sustain their current standard through the grind.

    If this team does happen to make the playoffs, I want a healthy Adam Larsson on the team.

  172. Jethro Tull says:

    ArmchairGM: Actually, no. Benning’s TOI vs Elites is the highest of all the D, as a percentage of total TOI. Looks like Tippett isn’t doing much sheltering at all.

    http://puckiq.com/teams/edm?season=&from_date=1569902400000&to_date=1570593600000&tier=Elite&positions=d&min_toi=&max_toi=

    Benning averages the least time on ice of all our defence this season so far. Now, we’ve played one third of this season’s games on the road, so no control over elites being played against him.

    To make your statement true, you would have to:

    1) Wait many more games to increase sample size.
    2) Split the games into the two home (to see who Tippett was putting him out against) and the one away (to see who the other coach wanted to put against him)
    3) Notice that he has the least amount of ice time and realise that any significant time against elites would of course skew the % of TOI vs Elites. Eg with made up numbers (except Average TOI, they are real from Hockey Ref): Klef averages 25mins. If he runs against elites for 2.5mins, then he’s 10% TOI vs Elites. Whereas Benning averages 13.2mins TOI per game. Against elites for 2.5mins and that’s nearer 19% TOI against elites. So does that mean Tippett values Benning twice as much as Klef because twice as much of his TOI is against elites, or he values Klef twice as much as Benning as he plays Klef twice as much?

  173. duct tape and foil says:

    The Neal heater is doing one very important thing on the PP. It’s driving teams crazy deciding who to focus on. McDavid? Drai? Neal? Varlamov was driven to distraction last night.

    I’m happy pulling Chiasson back into the lineup with Haas and Nygard as they are more of a scoring 4th line. His shot/size will be useful and he can play his natural RW. Plenty of speed with the Euros.

    Archibald and Russell can fight for the 3rd line RW slot and you play whoever is going well.

    Granlund is fighting with Khaira, Jurco and Nygard on LW and getting his lunch money stolen. His salary is almost totally off the books in the AHL and he better shape up or that’s where he will be going (Cave will be gone first though).

    Competition is good.

  174. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    geowal: This is the definition of all opinion, no fact.

    – Except for the Koski > Smith in 2018 (which is a “fact”, using GAA%, or SV% or virtually any measure I can find), and that he was the starter last year and wasn’t to start this year, which part of “my opinion on Koski’s chances to succeed going forward” makes you need to point that out that I am giving an opinion?

    – Or did you miss: “Anyway that’s what fun, to have different opinions.I don’t think he’s a bad goalie”,

    – Sure you can slag it. Maybe a better more constructive reply would be to share your take based on whatever parameters you chose to form your opinion on whether Koski will be a bona-fide NHL goalie by the end of the year.

    – Or you can point out that I gave an “opinion” which I said twice is indeed just that. Fill y’er boots

    – Do you think Koski will be a an NHL goalie? Was his performance was damaged by the play of the team last year? Did playing him virtually every game for last 30 have any effect? Do you think that not having NHL D hurt him? Could be different this year? None of these things can measured “factually”. I just shared my opinion on why he might be good this year. Thanks for the reply

  175. rickithebear says:

    A tip shot is:
    – instant release rate
    – high density x,y location
    – almost 100% unstoppable when open

    This is the only way to analyze shots.

    45 yrs of it for me!

  176. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ:
    I thought Nuge got an assist on one of the Neal goals, did they take it away?

    Yes, they did and, frankly, it was the right call.

  177. New Improved Darkness says:

    Double bonus points to anyone who caught the space opera reference to Mel Brooks in my post above. Old habits die hard.

  178. Darth Tu says:

    ArmchairGM: Better than NYI did. Most of their shots came from the point – it looked like a Hitchcock heatmap.

    Ricki will be extremely pleased. I think.

  179. rickithebear says:

    Jethro Tull: Benning averages the least time on ice of all our defence this season so far. Now, we’ve played one third of this season’s games on the road, so no control over elites being played against him.

    To make your statement true, you would have to:

    1) Wait many more games to increase sample size.
    2) Split the games into the two home (to see who Tippett was putting him out against) and the one away (to see who the other coach wanted to put against him)
    3) Notice that he has the least amount of ice time and realise that any significant time against elites would of course skew the % of TOI vs Elites. Eg with made up numbers (except Average TOI, they are real from Hockey Ref): Klef averages 25mins. If he runs against elites for 2.5mins, then he’s 10% TOI vs Elites.Whereas Benning averages 13.2mins TOI per game.Against elites for 2.5mins and that’snearer 19% TOI against elites.So does that mean Tippett values Benning twice as much as Klef because twice as much of his TOI is against elites, or he values Klef twice as much as Benning as he plays Klef twice as much?

    Zone start is critical.
    Given expected corsi rates by entry from ZS – FO location success & Bench change with or without.
    Analytic community seems to say 60% for Bench.
    But I observed 50-60%.

    What matters is ability to generate top open HD defence to your def side.
    That dictates what you are.
    Larsson top open HD vs 1st comp Thru career
    Benning top open HD vs 2 Nd, 3rd, 4 th, another MacT acquired asset per PC.

    Fenwick does not include the exact x,y location ( density affect), forced miss affect and open/ closed shot affect of dmen side.

    That is why it is the worst capture of elite open HD ( defensive) dmen.
    Below 50%.

  180. ArmchairGM says:

    Jethro Tull: Benning averages the least time on ice of all our defence this season so far. Now, we’ve played one third of this season’s games on the road, so no control over elites being played against him.

    To make your statement true, you would have to:

    1) Wait many more games to increase sample size.
    2) Split the games into the two home (to see who Tippett was putting him out against) and the one away (to see who the other coach wanted to put against him)
    3) Notice that he has the least amount of ice time and realise that any significant time against elites would of course skew the % of TOI vs Elites. Eg with made up numbers (except Average TOI, they are real from Hockey Ref): Klef averages 25mins. If he runs against elites for 2.5mins, then he’s 10% TOI vs Elites.Whereas Benning averages 13.2mins TOI per game.Against elites for 2.5mins and that’snearer 19% TOI against elites.So does that mean Tippett values Benning twice as much as Klef because twice as much of his TOI is against elites, or he values Klef twice as much as Benning as he plays Klef twice as much?

    Fair enough – so Tippitt IS sheltering Russell-Benning.

    Home games: http://puckiq.com/teams/edm?season=&from_date=1569902400000&to_date=1570248000000&tier=Elite&positions=d&min_toi=&max_toi=

    Away game: http://puckiq.com/teams/edm?season=&from_date=1570334400000&to_date=1570593600000&tier=Elite&positions=d&min_toi=&max_toi=

    They bent but didn’t break. Good on them.

  181. Bulging Twine says:

    “a ceramic elephant” ahahahhahah love it

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: Special teams play a big part too.

    Sure, the PP (i.e. Neal) is hot but 33.3% isn’t outrageous.

    The PK has been better – better personnel (targeted) and better system play (intentionally implemented) – that was a focus and an area that, almost on its own, could add 14-20 points I think.

  183. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja:
    Any news on who the starter is? I say 90 percent it’s Tippett’s boy Smith and he responds. Side note Chase will silence all the negative Nancy’s and pot a goal his first game back.

    Of course not, the media didn’t even bother asking after practice today – they’ve already learned.

    You’ll need to wait until tomorrow late morning.

    Rishaug is of the opinion that they should go back to Mikko.

    I personally have no idea. The last two games (Smith in game 2 and Koskinen in game 3) seemed like no-brainers to me but no obvious “right choice” to me for game 4.

    I think I lean towards Smith and I agree that Tip likely does too.

  184. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja:

    Side note Chase will silence all the negative Nancy’s and pot a goal his first game back.

    I’m not even sure Chiasson has a lineup spot.

    To me only one guy could/should be taken out, Granlund, and, given Tip wants speed in the bottom 6 and Archie can take his PK minutes, he makes sense to me.

  185. OriginalPouzar says:

    ducttapeandfoil:
    The Neal heater is doing one very important thing on the PP. It’s driving teams crazy deciding who to focus on. McDavid? Drai? Neal?Varlamov was driven to distraction last night.

    I think it was Noodles this morning that made a good point about Neal’s success on the PP down low. Teams are going to start cheating towards him and its going to open up the middle tip play for McDavid/Drai.

  186. Wilde says:

    It’ll be so goddamn funny to me if Bear is legit and Bouchard arrives quickly and the team has to seriously consider switching back to some kind of stretch exit system because otherwise it’s a waste of passing talent

  187. pts2pndr says:

    jm363561: =====
    A very interesting thread, and one of many reasons why I love Lowetide. As goals, shots, possession data, and estimate of shot quality are all – I think – readily available, it should be relatively easy to compute which variable is most likely to predict goals.

    The Oilers beat an arguably superior team by keeping shots to the outside. Detroit out shot Edmonton and lost the series. While there is a definite correlation re shots and goals scored it is overly simplistic to say that number of shots is the definitive in determining goals scored. Possession time on the other hand is also not necessarily the determining factor. If the majority of the possession time is in the offensive zone, I believe it would be a more definitive determining factor than shots. If the majority of the possession time was in your defensive zone not so much. The determining factor for shots would be shots from the kill shot area just as possession in the offensive zone is a determining factor.

  188. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not even sure Chiasson has a lineup spot.

    To me only one guy could/should be taken out, Granlund, and, given Tip wants speed in the bottom 6 and Archie can take his PK minutes, he makes sense to me.

    This would be my thinking as well.

  189. hunter1909 says:

    New Improved Darkness:
    Double bonus points to anyone who caught the space opera reference to Mel Brooks in my post above. Old habits die hard.

    I rarely understand anything you write, but I’ll defend to the death your right to say it.

  190. Jethro Tull says:

    ArmchairGM: Fair enough – so Tippitt IS sheltering Russell-Benning.

    Home games: http://puckiq.com/teams/edm?season=&from_date=1569902400000&to_date=1570248000000&tier=Elite&positions=d&min_toi=&max_toi=

    Away game: http://puckiq.com/teams/edm?season=&from_date=1570334400000&to_date=1570593600000&tier=Elite&positions=d&min_toi=&max_toi=

    They bent but didn’t break. Good on them.

    You bet! Music, as our host would put it.

  191. Gonzo says:

    Went trolling on some Calgary blogs and got a good laugh at people either still bragging up the importance of the toughness Lucic brings while others were already calling for a trade. One guy though suggested he retire and that the Oilers would then get hit with a retirement recapture fee similar to what happened to Vancouver when Luongo retired. Anyone out there smarter then me, and able to calculate it what that would cost the Oilers in salary cap on future years of he retires at some point during this current contract?

  192. Jethro Tull says:

    rickithebear: Zone start is critical.
    Given expected corsi rates by entry from ZS – FO location success & Bench change with or without.
    Analytic community seems to say 60% for Bench.
    But I observed 50-60%.

    What matters is ability to generate top open HD defence to your def side.
    That dictates what you are.
    Larsson top open HD vs 1st comp Thru career
    Benning top open HD vs 2 Nd, 3rd, 4 th, another MacT acquired asset per PC.

    Fenwick does not include the exactx,y location ( density affect), forced miss affect and open/ closed shot affect of dmen side.

    That is why it is the worst capture of elite open HD ( defensive) dmen.
    Below 50%.

    This merely says that these guys are good at things that matter to you. Lick your finger, hold it up. Is the league getting more Larsson’s and Bennings? That’s your litmus. Your data is good, but not causal in it’s nature.

  193. Fuhr and Lowething. says:

    Gonzo:
    Went trolling on some Calgary blogs and got a good laugh at people either still bragging up the importance of the toughness Lucic brings while others were already calling for a trade. One guy though suggested he retire and that the Oilers would then get hit with a retirement recapture fee similar to what happened to Vancouver when Luongo retired. Anyone out there smarter then me, and able to calculate it what that would cost the Oilers in salary cap on future years of he retires at some point during this current contract?

    Definitely not smarter than anyone here, but I believe that only applies to contracts that are signed by players that were 35 or older…amiwrong?

  194. Professor Q says:

    Fuhr and Lowething.,

    Correct. Edmonton wouldn’t have to pay anything in such an event.

  195. defmn says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not even sure Chiasson has a lineup spot.

    To me only one guy could/should be taken out, Granlund, and, given Tip wants speed in the bottom 6 and Archie can take his PK minutes, he makes sense to me.

    OriginalPouzar: I’m sure we do see it with teams but I don’t think its happening with the Oilers currently.

    I have very very very little doubt that coach Tippett would have both Archibald and Chiasson in the lineup if they were healthy enough to play.

  196. defmn says:

    Fuhr and Lowething.: Definitely not smarter than anyone here, but I believe that only applies to contracts that are signed by players that were 35 or older…amiwrong?

    I think it was a penalty retroactively inflicted by Bettman for long front loaded contracts that tailed off to bare minimum yearly cap hits in order to artificially lower a team’s cap hit when the team and player both knew they would be retired before they completed their contract.

    But, no, there is no penalty for the Oilers if Lucic retires.

  197. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gonzo:
    Went trolling on some Calgary blogs and got a good laugh at people either still bragging up the importance of the toughness Lucic brings while others were already calling for a trade. One guy though suggested he retire and that the Oilers would then get hit with a retirement recapture fee similar to what happened to Vancouver when Luongo retired. Anyone out there smarter then me, and able to calculate it what that would cost the Oilers in salary cap on future years of he retires at some point during this current contract?

    If he retire this off-season, which he won’t, I believe it would be $1.67M per year for 3 years.

    Lucic made $23M over the three years he was an Oiler but his total cap hit was $18M so the Oilers “saved” $5M which they get hit with, spread out over 3 years.

  198. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: If he retire this off-season, which he won’t, I believe it would be $1.67M per year for 3 years.

    Lucic made $23M over the three years he was an Oiler but his total cap hit was $18M so the Oilers “saved” $5M which they get hit with, spread out over 3 years.

    Lucic didn’t sign his contract post-35 years old. If he retires, the contract is void, salary bonuses are not payable, and the cap hit is relieved.

    Vancouver is paying the cap recapture for Luongo, but the $800,000 they were retaining is taken out (so the cap penalty for them is $2.2 million). As Lucic wasn’t an Over 35 Contract I don’t think it’d be worse than that.

  199. Jethro Tull says:

    hunter1909: Rant over

    Was a good’un.

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