Clouds

There are times when you can anticipate a team’s trajectory. I have no such feel for this Oilers team. I suspect Craig MacTavish has told people around him that ‘the final victories in a winning streak aren’t deserved, and the final losses in a losing streak aren’t either’ but it isn’t clear to me we can guarantee a loss on Saturday morning. One thing for sure: If they keep playing 97 and 29 over 25 minutes a night, there’s going to be a downbeat.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ Oscar Klefbom playing tough minutes with inexperienced partners — and looking good doing it
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He’s addicted to getting better’: What the Oilers are saying about Connor McDavid’s amazing start
  • Eric Duhatschek: The lasting impact of The Gretzky Effect, 40 years after his NHL debut
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers who could win (or lose) NHL jobs early in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Several unproven players are earning NHL jobs and increasing roster quality and depth. No balance photo, but some traction early.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why Riley Sheahan could be a key ingredient the Oilers have been missing
  • Jonathan Willis: Bet on James Neal rebounding with Oilers, just not all the way
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Joel Persson went from being a part-time teacher three years ago to patrolling the Oilers blue line (this is exceptional).
  • Lowetide: Keeping an eye on Jesse Puljujarvi: Which teams could emerge as potential trade partners?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
  • Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 2015: 0-4-0, goal differential -8
  • Oilers in October 2016: 3-1-0, goal differential +2
  • Oilers in October 2017: 1-3-0, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in October 2018: 2-2-0, goal differential -4
  • Oilers in October 2019: 4-0-0, goal differential +5

I don’t think that McDavid goal would have counted one year ago. I don’t think you should worry about it, but adjusting your sights is probably a good plan. That new wrinkle in the rule will bite the Oilers in the ass someday soon. Anyway, who cares? The team tied it and then won it. Those two points are important.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (2-0-0)
  • At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
  • At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 4-0-0, 8 points after 4 games

I picked this team to grab 15 points from the first 14 games. Edmonton could go 3-6-1 and get there. All numbers below are NST and five-on-five unless otherwise indicated.

LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 17:10 (that’s a lot) and went 11-15 Corsi, 6-8 shots, 1-1 goals and 0-1 HDSC.

Leon Draisaitl had a goal in regulation and won the game with a nice shootout goal. He played 25 minutes again, I’m worried about his workload. Connor McDavid posted 1-1-2 (both points outside five-on-five) and came to the rescue with a massive goal with just over a minute left. Dave Tippett is playing the hell out of him. Zack Kassian had an assist on a goal so beautiful all five men on the ice should have gotten a point. (Wilde video here). The line has eight goals in four games, maybe they should be called the TWO G-A-G LINE.

LINE 2 Tomas Jurco-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-James Neal played 11:31, 8-9 Corsi, 3-5 shots, 0-1 goals and 0-2 HDSC.

Tomas Jurco had a takeaway and several impressive dashes, but no shots. Needs to score if he is going to stay on the line. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had two assists, one on the Neal goal and the other on the late tying goal. I thought he played a strong game. James Neal is going to score 76 goals, they’re going in from the moon.

LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 10:16, going 6-8 Corsi, 3-5 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC. I think this is going to be the hill the math people die on when it comes to Tippett. He loves this line too much.

Jujhar Khaira had a strong game to my eye, he got a shot on goal and another chance. He had the Oilers only HDSC at five-on-five. Encouraging. Riley Sheahan had 2 shots and a takeaway, played 30 seconds less on the PK than in his first game. Also struggled in the dot. Patrick Russell forechecked like a demon and drew a penalty.

LINE 4 Joakim Nygard-Gaetan Haas-Markus Granlund played 6:19 and were 2-1 Corsi, 2-1 shots and no goals or high events.

Joakim Nygard had a takeaway, he was physical and I think he should be playing more. Gaetan Haas did a good job forechecking, had a takeaway, was 50 percent on faceoffs. Markus Granlund had a shot and was a regular on the PK rotation.

PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse-Ethan Bear played 20:04 together, going 10-16 Corsi, 6-10 shots, 1-2 goals and 0-2 HDSC. Nurse played 11:01 with McDavid, 9:19 against Hall.

Darnell Nurse had a lovely assist on Edmonton’s first goal. He skated miles and just over 24 minutes total time. Ethan Bear’s deft pass to McDavid for the jailbreak on the first goal was poetry. The young defenceman had two takeaways and five shot attempts, as well as 1:38 on the PK.

PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Joel Persson played 14:10 together, going 13-10 Corsi, 5-4 shots, 0-1 goals and 0-2 HDSC.

Oscar Klefbom had an assist on the tying goal, seven shot attempts at goal, and several events where he covered for his young partner. Joel Persson had three shots and took some time to move the puck consistently in this game. That Devils speed is a tough test.

PAIRING THREE Kris Russell-Matt Benning played 12:31 together, going 4-10 Corsi, 1-6 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC. That’s a weird line.

Kris Russell had a giveaway and a takeaway, blocked a couple of shots and led the team (along with Klefbom) with 2:22 shorthanded. Matt Benning had a takeaway and a blocked shot, he played just 13:26 (Bear played 10 more minutes.

GOALIE Mikko Koskinen stopped 28 of 31, .903. He also stopped six of seven HDSC’s. He has been the better goalie through four games.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we kickstart the long weekend on TSN1260. We’ll talk turkey with Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports, who will give his opinion on the Oilers start and tell us the real Dave Hodge story. Matt Iwanyk will pop by at 11 and we’ll talk Oilers, Eskimos, NFL and his beloved Yankees, who got no breaks at all last night in Houston.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

341 Responses to "Clouds"

« Older Comments
  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side: I like to imagine you say that a lot in your day to day as a lawyer.

    I can neither confirm nor deny.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Nit: So that rule goes in and lazy on screen commentators keep saying they hear the refs are going to be more “lenient” this year.. And fans not knowing better say hey see the refs are more lenient. And then fans argue with trolls about how many shots were heard on the icy knoll.

    Why can’t the on screen personalities reference the rulebook at least once this year when this scenario is in video review???

    The “continuous play” rule is not new though.

  3. drglen says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Puljujarvi scores – 1-0 Karpat.

    hmmm he seems to be scoring.

    Better linemates? Easier league? I’m wondering if he’s ‘driving the play’…Maybe JP has to be the big dog driving the action, doesn’t do so well when deferring or thinking the game to get to soft spots in the ice, etc.

    What’s JP/s + – ? Just curious.

  4. Nit64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: The “continuous play” rule is not new though.

    Do we know when it came in? But yeah the alleged leniency looks more like follow the rulebook.

  5. ArmchairGM says:

    drglen: hmmm he seems to be scoring.

    Better linemates? Easier league? I’m wondering if he’s ‘driving the play’…Maybe JP has to be the big dog driving the action, doesn’t do so well when deferring or thinking the game to get to soft spots in the ice, etc.

    What’s JP/s + – ?Just curious.

    +8 in 10 games (11-3). Best on the team.

  6. blainer says:

    I do think we need to temper our expectations.. Everyone here was on such a high when hitch came on the scene last year.

    It’s a long season and there will be long losing streaks so be prepared for it as it is coming. I am very optimistic though for the furure of the D. Broberg and Bouchard are gonna be unreal and put this team in a different light.

    On a different note though .. My Gord is Klef ever playing some good hockey. I always thought that Lars was the guy we could not afford to lose. I now know that D is Klefbom.. I really hope he can stay healthy as he IS the straw back there..

  7. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Its what you create minus what you give up.So even if you are a low GA Ricki player, doesnt mean you are not a black hole.Hes had 100% save percentage with good goalkeeping against easy opposition but his deficiencies are big and they are spectacular

    You discounted the most important part – the PK – the PK has been a material part of the team’s success and Russell is a massive part of that, in particular with Larsson out.

  8. Death By Misadventure says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    3 on 3

    McDavidDraisaitl Klefbom

    Nuge Kassian Bear.

    Make Ethan Bear the new Sekera.

    I know they won in a shootout last night and all that, but I missed Sekera 3 on 3.

  9. theDjdj says:

    leadfarmer:
    How long before Jones comes in and replaces Russell.
    I think Bear is showing the world why up the boards and out from these Ricki D is going extinct

    Honestly, with how garbage Winnipeg’s D is you could probably convince the Peg to take Russell for a 3rd. Kenny has expressed interest in replacing the 3rd he anticipated losing in the Neal trade. Russell has a modified 15 team list NTC list, right? Does that preclude being sent to the minors?

  10. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar: That’s the thing, there aren’t forwards the play over 25 minutes, d-men, yes, but not forwards – its quite rare.

    I think I read on here yesterday that Drai would be the 3rd or 6th since they starting recording TOI.

    Draisaitl and McDavid are also rare talents though.

    After reading more posts in the thread I am becoming convinced the workload McDavid and Draisaitl have currently is fine. A good chunk of their time comes from the PP and Drai’s PK time should drop.

    If McDavid and Draisaitl were 25 mins of even strength time + whatever from PP and Pk for the whole season though… yeesh.

  11. drglen says:

    blainer,

    +1 exactly can he stay healthy. He’s playing like Karlsson.

  12. blainer says:

    ArmchairGM: +8 in 10 games (11-3). Best on the team.

    JP heading back to Europe to play may indeed save his career in the NHL. They should leave him there for the entire year which is what I think will happen anyway.

    As a result I am actually feeling a lot better for the young man’s prospects of making it back to the NHL.

    I will also say something that won’t be popular here… I think he did the right thing moving on from the oil after watching what happened with Yak.. JMO.

  13. drglen says:

    Side: Draisaitl and McDavid are also rare talents though.

    After reading more posts in the thread I am becoming convinced the workload McDavid and Draisaitl have currently is fine. A good chunk of their time comes from the PP and Drai’s PK time should drop.

    If McDavid and Draisaitl were 25 mins of even strength time + whatever from PP and Pk for the whole season though… yeesh.

    agree these are young elite conditioned athletes… handled right the workload could be ‘good ‘ for them.. but they’ll need recovery time.. ( aka.. SLEEP) ..

  14. Side says:

    blainer:
    I do think we need to temper our expectations.. Everyone here was on such a high when hitch came on the scene last year.

    It’s a long season and there will be long losing streaks so be prepared for it as it is coming. I am very optimistic though for the furure of the D. Broberg and Bouchard are gonna be unreal and put this team in a different light.

    On a different note though .. My Gord is Klef ever playing some good hockey. I always thought that Lars was the guy we could not afford to lose. I now know that D is Klefbom.. I really hope he can stay healthy as he IS the straw back there..

    You’re just sweating because the Oilers are almost 1/8 of the way to your deathmarch prediction already!

  15. Munny says:

    drglen: hmmm he seems to be scoring.

    Better linemates? Easier league? I’m wondering if he’s ‘driving the play’…Maybe JP has to be the big dog driving the action, doesn’t do so well when deferring or thinking the game to get to soft spots in the ice, etc.

    What’s JP/s + – ?Just curious.

    Definitely “easier league” is playing a role. For eg, today’s wrister from Pujo does not find the back of the net at the NHL level.

  16. drglen says:

    blainer: JP heading back to Europe to play may indeed save his career in the NHL. They should leave him there for the entire year which is what I think will happen anyway.

    As a result I am actually feeling a lot better for the young man’s prospects of making it back to the NHL.

    I will also say something that won’t be popular here… I think he did the right thing moving on from the oil after watching what happened with Yak.. JMO.

    I know… agree leave him alone over there… most likely outcome is a trade… but I admit this little voice went ” say.. maybe he could help our team’….. but wait.. we’re 4 and 0 ? For sake of argument, the only place he could ‘fit’ on our team is with Khaira and Sheehan… but he’d have to be this bull wrecking crew type of player that also checks as hard as he drives…because I’m not sure he has the hockey IQ to play with nuge.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Can’t disagree there. I don’t see it happening until next July though.

    Until Larsson returns, I don’t think the team can afford to lose Russell from the PK unit.

  18. Philosophil says:

    Munny,

    Is there a statisical model for the probability of a particular shot going in based on location and circumstance (screen) rather than the one time event? Seen heat maps for shot locations, JP’s shot location is relatively close to the net but marginal angle. Seen him take that type of open look shot many times in the NHL. It typically results in a save and stoppage in play.

    Agree JP’s goal looks like a weak attempt by the goalie.

  19. McNuge93 says:

    Death By Misadventure: I know they won in a shootout last night and all that, but I missed Sekera 3 on 3.

    Well you missed him for three years. That Sekera doesnt exist anymore. Since his injuries I don’t think he”s been playing 3 on 3.

  20. ArmchairGM says:

    theDjdj: Honestly, with how garbage Winnipeg’s D is you could probably convince the Peg to take Russell for a 3rd. Kenny has expressed interest in replacing the 3rd he anticipated losing in the Neal trade. Russell has a modified 15 team list NTC list, right? Does that preclude being sent to the minors?

    Not specifically, but his NMC does preclude such a move.

  21. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    If I may bring up a thread from earlier – re: Harpers Hair. Troll status being what it is, what irks me is the professed “concern” regarding rule fluidity when it ostensibly benefited the Oilers.

    Yet where was the outrage and shock when the miserable dickhead Tkachuk was allowed to high stick a puck then bat it in the net? Is this more rule fluidity, if so why the silence or don’t you really give rats ass about rules unless it could potentially skewer the Oilers.

    Leading me to my conclusion – WTF does this person hang around here? Is your dumbass green suit still at the cleaners so you can’t hang out with your police car burning rioting pals?

  22. drglen says:

    Philosophil:
    Munny,

    Is there a statisical model for the probability of a particular shot going in based on location and circumstance (screen) rather than the one time event? Seen heat maps for shot locations, JP’s shot location is relatively close to the net but marginal angle. Seen him take that type of open look shot many times in the NHL. It typically results in a save and stoppage in play.

    Agree JP’s goal looks like a weak attempt by the goalie.

    interesting.

  23. Munny says:

    Philosophil:
    Munny,

    Is there a statisical model for the probability of a particular shot going in based on location and circumstance (screen) rather than the one time event? Seen heat maps for shot locations, JP’s shot location is relatively close to the net but marginal angle. Seen him take that type of open look shot many times in the NHL. It typically results in a save and stoppage in play.

    Agree JP’s goal looks like a weak attempt by the goalie.

    Such a model is the basis for HDSC, but that stat appears to be very wonky when given the eye test. This might be due to issues other than the model, but I have no idea if that’s the case atm.

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny:
    Re: Trading Russell

    It certainly won’t happen while Larsson is out.Next summer is probably the best opportunity.Does anyone know if the Flames are willing to deal with us in the off-season?Can we off-load our weaker players to them?

    If we got Neal for Lucic, I wonder how much they’d be willing to retain on Lindholm or Gaudreau for Russell?

  25. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: Until Larsson returns, I don’t think the team can afford to lose Russell from the PK unit.

    This was an absolutely horrendous pk unit last year and Russell was on the ice for the most pk GA on this team. His ability to pk is very overstated and he is easily replaceable
    But I guess we can throw out seasons worth of data for 4 games against teams that won’t make the playoffs

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    drglen: hmmm he seems to be scoring.

    Better linemates? Easier league? I’m wondering if he’s ‘driving the play’…Maybe JP has to be the big dog driving the action, doesn’t do so well when deferring or thinking the game to get to soft spots in the ice, etc.

    What’s JP/s + – ?Just curious.

    I’ve only seen parts of Karpat’s CHL games, none of the Liiga but, from accounts, yes, he is often the driver of the offence for Karpat.

  27. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    PennersPancakes: Agreed. Was that in error in applying how HDSC is measured (like a blown call) or is that an error in the methodology and logic behind it?

    Methodology thing.

    Drai shot it from outside the “HDSC” zone.

    It doesn’t account for passes across the slot or the fact that he had an open net.

    Grandlund’s shot was also from outside the “HDSC” zone.

    It’s not a good metric.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    blainer:
    I do think we need to temper our expectations.. Everyone here was on such a high when hitch came on the scene last year.

    It’s a long season and there will be long losing streaks so be prepared for it as it is coming. I am very optimistic though for the furure of the D. Broberg and Bouchard are gonna be unreal and put this team in a different light.

    On a different note though .. My Gord is Klef ever playing some good hockey. I always thought that Lars was the guy we could not afford to lose. I now know that D is Klefbom.. I really hope he can stay healthy as he IS the straw back there..

    He is just now entering his prime and, my goodness, is he having a start to the year – 25 and healthy – playing top pairing minutes with a raw rookie (who is finding his way in North America) and excelling, in all three zones.

  29. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965:
    Question for the room. Do you think Bear is playing better today than Jones did in his first few games last year?

    I think it’s close but Bear’s passing is better.

  30. Philosophil says:

    Munny,

    Right, High definition sieve chance 🙂 (No one calls Goalies “sieves” anymore. What a drag it is getting old)

    The “evidence” that JP is improved just insn’t there IMO. Lesser comp, larger ice (Persson recently commented it’s been a significant adjust on the smaller ice), doesn’t translate to top 6 NHL Player.

    I’d settle for a prospect for JP at this point, gotta move on.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side: Draisaitl and McDavid are also rare talents though.

    After reading more posts in the thread I am becoming convinced the workload McDavid and Draisaitl have currently is fine. A good chunk of their time comes from the PP and Drai’s PK time should drop.

    If McDavid and Draisaitl were 25 mins of even strength time + whatever from PP and Pk for the whole season though… yeesh.

    but we saw the effect it had on them last year down the stretch.

    They were still very dominant offensively but they were so bad defensively and making mental and physical mistakes consistently. I’m convinced there was physical and mental fatigue leading to mistakes as well as “conserving” on the defensive end.

    Part of it was also them having to carry the entire offence – I’m quite certain that was mentally fatiguing and also led to them “cheating for offence”.

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: Definitely “easier league” is playing a role.For eg, today’s wrister from Pujo does not find the back of the net at the NHL level.

    Spector?

    Eichel’s weak wrister found the back of the net yesterday

  33. drglen says:

    That whole ducks series loss and the calls.. various other calls not gone our way in recent times… my lame theory is that there is/was a subcouncious ‘payback’ to the oilers for the luck of winning McDavid in the lottery. also McDavid not winning the hart last couple seasons… .. I think that’s making the refs see the glass half full instead of half empty.

    that whole ‘goalie has it/doesn’t have it… ref lost sight of the puck, blew the whistle, didnt’s blow the whistle, but intended to blow the whistle… that’s a tough one. In this case.. connor saw that the puck was not covered, not secured and so technically still live. The whistle did blow? but was it ‘at the same time’.. as the puck is shot… . tie goes to the shooter I think, because the puck was in fact live. (i’m thinking the refs had a little private discussion as per ‘did the keeper have it’..

    the one that bugs me is when the goalie has his glove down hard on the puck as per a ‘freeze’.. but gets pushed in glove puck and all by somebody’s stick and it counts… or the idea that you get ‘one hack’ at a frozen puck by gentlemans agreement or something.

    Actually in the NJ game I though one of NJs goals was borderline goalie interfenence because Koksy basically got tripped by the new jersey player partially in the crease in the positional battle with the defender. that can play a part in the call, the game history.

    If it was 4-2 Edmonton, they might not count it. if it was 4-1 NJ, they would probably count it without any issues. Somehow I think the refs think… what is fair today, right now, in the context of this, excellent, close game with some close shaves and maybe’s for both sides.

  34. Yegfoundation says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    That’s terrible, Drai goal was a side of the net tap in. Broken metric is right.

  35. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Methodology thing.

    Drai shot it from outside the “HDSC” zone.

    It doesn’t account for passes across the slot or the fact that he had an open net.

    Grandlund’s shot was also from outside the “HDSC” zone.

    It’s not a good metric.

    Nope.
    I call those very high danger scoring chances even though they may be outside of the high danger scoring area
    Shots that the goalie has to move side to side and can’t get set for the shot or tipped shots are incredibly hard to stop

  36. Philosophil says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wondered the same. Need a fair comparison, I believe Jones played his off side (right side a a lefty) in some of his time with the big club last year.

    These two players are a developmental horse race, Bear with the big club due to handedness and a coach with fresh eyes and a preference for appropriate handedness (Lefties on the left).

  37. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I don’t think 29 is averaging 2min/gm 4v5m
    .
    As per NST:

    29 4v5 TOI each game:
    1 – 2:16
    2 – 1:37
    3 – 0:42
    4 – 1:07

    97, 29 and 93 are also averaging 4:44 5v4 per game.

    Those are not hard minutes on the body.

    Yeah that’s my mistake. Got the raw numbers from Hockey Ref as I don’t get NST at work. Also rookie error, only 4 game sample size, so he can still play a lot of PK one game and none the next and it still swings the ATOI.

    Will disagree on the “not hard minutes on the body” on a few counts.

    1) PK is widely regarded as hard minutes. Better the QoC, harder it is. Or maybe not as they score sooner. Hmmm…. I have to look into that.

    2) Ken explicitly brought in role players for this. The only role you want Drai playing is as the destroyer of worlds.

    3) It’s early doors; everyone’s feeling good after the off season and winning 4 games. We’ll see on a cold February in Pittsburgh or Philly when Dave taps him on the shoulder and the bottom six are cheering him on the PK against Malkin, Crosby and Giroux.

    4) And if not the bottom six, at least have Nuge do it.

  38. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Spector?

    Eichel’s weak wrister found the back of the net yesterday

    This seems deliberately obtuse. If Eichel shoots that shot a hundred times, how many times does it beat the goalie?

  39. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Methodology thing.

    Drai shot it from outside the “HDSC” zone.

    It doesn’t account for passes across the slot or the fact that he had an open net.

    Grandlund’s shot was also from outside the “HDSC” zone.

    It’s not a good metric.

    Thank you, been wondering about this all day. Didn’t know if the problem was on the NHL side or o the methodology side. Appreciate you clearing it up.

  40. digger50 says:

    kgo: What’s the Rush for Marody?

    The guy has played 63 games in the AHL….yes he’s scoring at a PPG pace, but what’s the rush? He’s not waiver eligible, he’s got another year on his ELC after this one…Let him continue to develop, and improve his strength, speed, shot, and off ice habits in a low pressure environment.

    I genuinely wonder why folks here want him on the Roster?Do you honestly believe he will excel in the NHL at this time?

    The way camp played out I witnesses veterans get the benefit of the doubt and more time to adapt and I have no issue with this.

    As we get into the first ten games the roster is continuing to evolve and we will see the need for improving , need for scoring, and some players start to slide underwater.

    As that happens I would want him on the roster because he is better than others. Because he will add skill and scoring. There is a time to marinate and a time to make the jump. I don’t see him coming up to sit, but starting at 6 min game and up to 12 is a great way to bring along a new player.

    We will need some more skill added to the roster. It may not be Cooper either.

    I hope Holland does not act on what he thinks will happen (Chia) but what is actually happening. If this team shows they are about uts to take off, give them help if they need it.

  41. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: AND the McDavid OFF slowly starts to sink ……. de ja vu all over again?

    I look at the bottom 6 OP posted and don’t see any goals from them ..It’s ALL on James Neal

    Nygard scored a 4v4 goal.

  42. Nit64 says:

    blainer: JP heading back to Europe to play may indeed save his career in the NHL. They should leave him there for the entire year which is what I think will happen anyway.

    As a result I am actually feeling a lot better for the young man’s prospects of making it back to the NHL.

    I will also say something that won’t be popular here… I think he did the right thing moving on from the oil after watching what happened with Yak.. JMO.

    Like the guy a lot and wish him the best. But I only want him traded from a position of strength. He should have a great development year over there and the team needs a great development year without the mess Chia created. Next year his default path to any of the 31 NHL teams should be through our training camp.

  43. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ashley:
    Another nice game from Bear.He has the confidence of the coaching staff, and for good reason.He makes great decisions, covers well, skilled with puck, and very athletic.

    It’s interesting watching him.He can change directions and turn around so quickly.It’s almost like he’s in runners playing on hardwood while everyone else is skating on ice.If there was an all star skills competition for skating back and forth between points opposite each other as fast as you can, he would win for sure.I think he would even beat Connor.Remarkable athlete.

    The Oilers have to be pleased with what they are seeing.He’s playing like a 5 year veteran as a rookie.

    Other teams must be looking at him play and wondering “Where did that guy come from?I’ve never heard of him.”

    The Oilers badly needed a depth draft hit after years of bad luck and traded picks.

    Bear is a deep fly.

    Hard line drive that hits the wall before it hits the ground.

  44. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: This seems deliberately obtuse.If Eichel shoots that shot a hundred times, how many times does it beat the goalie?

    Nope, not at all.

    It shows that, yes, sometimes those goals do go in in the NHL.

    How many times does it go in in Liiga? Probably not many more than in the NHL.

  45. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny: Definitely “easier league” is playing a role.For eg, today’s wrister from Pujo does not find the back of the net at the NHL level.

    NHL goalies allow weak goals all the time. And his “weak” wrister was over 80 mph, not far off what most NHL slap shots are.

    It should be noted, however, that Puljujarvi’s other 3 shot attempts were from the slot within 20 feet of the net.

  46. digger50 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Coach is focused on speed in the bottom 6 and Marody doesn’t bring that – I see what the decision was made to keep Haas for now.Let Marody continue to work on his game.

    Rieder had a lot of speed though right?

  47. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar:
    WG,

    Can I say none of the relevant fancies mean anything from a team perspective until game 20 or so?

    My eyes really do see an improvement in structure so I’m gonna enjoy the PDO spike and winning until we get more data.

    Yeah, 20-30 games is first sample that actually can predict ~30% of future GF% most seasons.

    That’s only 5v5 though……EDM is winning with special teams and a high 5v5 SH% right now.

    Most teams on winning streak are riding the PDO pony.

    It’s when you get 13 points in 10 games with a PDO of 990 or so is when you know a team is “good”

    Usually that has a lot to do with special teams…..

  48. Bulging Twine says:

    Profit,

    Thanks for that. Good job on the research. Good to know.

  49. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Profit:
    Bulging Twine,

    Teams that have been off for 3+ days tend to underperform versus playing every day or two. Using stats from here: https://morehockeystats.com/teams/gamedays I found that for the 2018/19 season on average NHL teams could expect 1.11 points/game. On back to back games (i.e. 0 days off) teams could expect 1.01 points/game and on breaks of over 3 days teams could expect 1.08 points/game. All other games (1 or 2 days of rest between games) teams averaged 1.12 points/game.

    Now, small sample alert for 3+ day breaks – avg of 7.2 games/year which fit in this category versus 12.96 games/year for back to backs. So there is some noise in the numbers.

    I went back to 2014/15 to average out ALL of the games and:

    Expected Points Based on Number of Days Rest:

    All games: 1.12
    Back to Back (0 days rest): 1.02
    1 Day Rest: 1.14
    2 Days Rest: 1.15
    3+ Days Rest: 1.11

    The numbers are pretty self explanatory – 2 days rest is optimal and 3+ days rest either hurts (in some years I found a -5% expected point outcome) or at a minimum doesn’t help. I found no evidence to suggest a 3 day+ break “helps” the rested team on an expected point basis.

    Also interesting – it seems there is little to no correlation between which teams which do well on breaks year over year. I couldn’t find any patterns there at all.

    Great stuff. Thanks.

  50. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    kgo: Is it unreasonable to expect that McDavid’s career individual PDO will be sustainable above 100?

    With a league average 5v5 SV% I have him ~1025 or so.

  51. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp:
    A year or two ago I had a look at NHL teams going back 20 years or something to see if high PDO could be sustainable.

    There were a few examples (not very many) of teams that managed 3 or 4 seasons in a row of 1020+ PDO (the Lemieux/Jagr Penguins and the Hasek Sabres are two that I remember).

    A sustainably high PDO is possible, but not 1069 high. And it is very rare, I think there were only 3 or 4 teams total that topped 1020 at least 3 seasons in a row in the 20 year sample I looked at. I think the DOD Oilers were an example of sustaining a low PDO for multiple years too.

    For an individual player like McDavid it’s definitely possible, but it’s very hard to do at the team level.

    I looked at that too.

    High sustained PDO is usually driven by a high 5v5 SV%

    I think only NYR had it sustained by high SH% but I forget the year.

    EDM’s bender is driven by high SH% right now.

    They won last night via special teams tho…

  52. GMB3 says:

    ArmchairGM: NHL goalies allow weak goals all the time. And his “weak” wrister was over 80 mph, not far off what most NHL slap shots are.

    It should be noted, however, that Puljujarvi’s other 3 shot attempts were from the slot within 20 feet of the net.

    I wish the NHL released shot velo data similar to the MLB with statcast. I think I remember reading somewhere that Kessel’s average was in the low-mid eighties

  53. treevojo says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hey woodguy

    I have drank writers tears quite a few times now and quite enjoy it.

    Any other suggestions at the same price point because I’m kinda cheap and don’t like spending much more then that dollar range?

    Nothing worse then dropping a woodguy on a bottle and only getting two oilers games out of it.

    Easier to justify in that $50 range.

  54. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GMB3: I don’t think a single forward has averaged 25 mins of ice in a long time if ever. Draisaitl and McDavid barely broke even at 5v5 last year, and I’d surmise that being overplayed had a role in that, as well as Hitchcock’s system

    It was Larsson.

    Last year 29 and 97’s together GF%

    With Larsson 47.5%
    Without Larsson 62.3%

    Some of that is QoC, but not *that* much.

    If you look at 97 and 29 wowy Larsson its the same.

    97 w/o 29 with 6 – 23.8% (!!!!!!!)
    97 w/o 29 w/o 6 – 50%

    It’s nutty when you dive into it.

  55. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    One thing that hasn’t been commented on w.r.t. the Bear play on the Draisaitl goal is where the forwards are.

    How deep are McD and Kass, and how far are they from the defenseman Bear as he’s coming out of the corner?

    If that pass has to go to the blue line to a jailbreaker, the Oil are likely lighting a tire fire or giving a HDSC against.

    #CoachTips

    Truth.

  56. HT Joe says:

    Woodguy v2.0: It was Larsson.

    Last year 29 and 97’s together GF%

    With Larsson 47.5%
    Without Larsson 62.3%

    Some of that is QoC, but not *that* much.

    If you look at 97 and 29 wowy Larsson its the same.

    97 w/o 29 with 6 – 23.8% (!!!!!!!)
    97 w/o 29 w/o 6 – 50%

    It’s nutty when you dive into it.

    Forgive my ignorance, but Larsson isn’t simply a terrible blueliner is he?

    I mean, are the numbers looking like this because Larsson is always sent over the boards against the other team’s best players?

    For comparison, do we have a sense of how Klefbom and Nurse look when 29+97 are compared with or without them?

    *EDIT* Is it possible to get the numbers of 29+97, with or without Larsson, but break it down between Larsson being paired with Klefbom, Nurse, Russel, or other? I’m not trying to be demanding… it just sounds like the current dataset might be averaging and hiding something.

  57. treevojo says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Also

    A few years ago hampus lindholm seemed to be all the rage around here.

    If my memory serves me correctly people thought he would have made a much better acquisition for Taylor Hall.

    I never even hear his name whispered around here anymore.

    Injuries? Stopped progressing? Numbers dropped?

    All of the above?

  58. GMB3 says:

    treevojo:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Also

    A few years ago hampus lindholm seemed to be all the rage around here.

    If my memory serves me correctly people thought he would have made a much better acquisition for Taylor Hall.

    I never even hear his name whispered around here anymore.

    Injuries?Stopped progressing? Numbers dropped?

    All of the above?

    Had a down year last year. Manson really fell off last year too which might play a role in it as well

  59. Reja says:

    blainer:
    I do think we need to temper our expectations.. Everyone here was on such a high when hitch came on the scene last year.

    It’s a long season and there will be long losing streaks so be prepared for it as it is coming. I am very optimistic though for the furure of the D. Broberg and Bouchard are gonna be unreal and put this team in a different light.

    On a different note though .. My Gord is Klef ever playing some good hockey. I always thought that Lars was the guy we could not afford to lose. I now know that D is Klefbom.. I really hope he can stay healthy as he IS the straw back there..

    Didn’t you predict 66 Points if I’m not wrong?

  60. Halfwise says:

    treevojo:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hey woodguy

    I have drank writers tears quite a few times now and quite enjoy it.

    Any other suggestions at the same price point because I’m kinda cheap and don’t like spending much more then that dollar range?

    Nothing worse then dropping a woodguy on a bottle and only getting two oilers games out of it.

    Easier to justify in that $50 range.

    I’m going to go out on a limb here.

    There is one whiskey in Alberta that is a complete steal. It has a shitty bottle and label design. In a blind taste test it is unbeatable by anything twice the price, maybe three times the price.

    Alberta Premium rye. All rye, no other alcohols. Ahead of its time and never promoted properly. Hidden gem, no love except from those who really like good whisky and whiskey.

    Drink it neat or in a wetted glass.

  61. GMB3 says:

    Reja: Didn’t you predict 66 Points if I’m not wrong?

    Reja I feel like you’re going to be very disappointed when the PDO pony bucks us off

  62. Ryan says:

    It’s only 5 games but…

    Sekera vs Russell

    Toi/g. 21:53 Sekera vs 17:07 Russell

    Ff % rel: 4.12 Sek vs -2.31 Russell.

    Maybe we bought out the wrong guy.

    Speaking of buyouts.

    A wicked smart GM would look for a crappy player with a similar cap hit to Russell’s with one year left on it after this.

    Then he’d trade Russell for that player in the offseason to escape the poison pill that is Russell ‘s last year signing bonus on his buyout cap hit.

  63. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    That’s why I have been saying to trade him while we still could get good value for him
    These Ricki D are going extinct

  64. leadfarmer says:

    Ryan,

    How many of those minutes Sekera played are with future All Star Heiskanen
    Also just because Sekera got bought out doesn’t mean Russell won’t get bought out

  65. treevojo says:

    Halfwise: I’m going to go out on a limb here.

    There is one whiskey in Alberta that is a complete steal. It has a shitty bottle and label design. In a blind taste test it is unbeatable by anything twice the price, maybe three times the price.

    Alberta Premium rye. All rye, no other alcohols. Ahead of its time and never promoted properly. Hidden gem, no love except from those who really like good whisky and whiskey.

    Drink it neat or in a wetted glass.

    Ha

    Grew up in northern Alberta

    Drank a lot of rye.

    But always mixed.

    Haven’t touched it in a long time.

    Will give it a shot if I can track it down out east.

    Thanks

  66. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Until Larsson returns, I don’t think the team can afford to lose Russell from the PK unit.

    The new Oilers believe in 5 man units breaking out hows that working out for our offensive it’s the Russian model I mean Detroit model. Enough of the sugar coating of Russell if Holland could dump him for EFF all he would have done it yesterday. We have 3 D in the minors chomping at the bit that can do his job for a third of the price.

  67. Caller Zen says:

    Reja:
    What’s the over under on Neal winning player of the month I say 15.

    Nah, because you just jinxed it!

  68. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I was listening to the Gregor show on my drive to Edmonton this afternoon and they were talking about being down a bunch of times and coming back every time and “not sagging” – I mentioned to my wife that part of that is never getting down by 2.

    I talk to my wife about not sagging as well.

    She’s better at it than me.

  69. Halfwise says:

    treevojo: Ha

    Grew up in northern Alberta

    Drank a lot of rye.

    But always mixed.

    Haven’t touched it in a long time.

    Will give it a shot if I can track it down out east.

    Thanks

    Pretty sure everything we drank that said Rye was a blend. Rye plus other grain alcohols. Grain alcohol is harsh.

    Alberta Premium is 100% rye and the difference is immense. It should be for sale in a crystal bottle and be called something more exotic. Premium product for cheap.

  70. treevojo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I talk to my wife about not sagging as well.

    She’s better at it than me.

    Long Bag

    Hard to avoid with age

  71. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    drglen: agree these are young elite conditioned athletes… handled right the workload could be ‘good ‘ for them.. but they’ll need recovery time.. ( aka.. SLEEP) ..

    Aye.

    There’s the rub.

    NYC and sleep are not synonymous.

  72. treevojo says:

    Halfwise: Pretty sure everything we drank that said Rye was a blend. Rye plus other grain alcohols. Grain alcohol is harsh.

    Alberta Premium is 100% rye and the difference is immense. It should be for sale in a crystal bottle and be called something more exotic. Premium product for cheap.

    Just looked up on the nslc.

    There looks to be a lighter bottle and a darker bottle both Alberta premium.

    Any difference?

  73. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Philosophil:
    Munny,

    Right, High definition sieve chance (No one calls Goalies “sieves” anymore. What a drag it is getting old)

    The “evidence” that JP is improved just insn’t there IMO. Lesser comp, larger ice (Persson recently commented it’s been a significant adjust on the smaller ice), doesn’t translate to top 6 NHL Player.

    I’d settle for a prospect for JP at this point, gotta move on.

    In my youth we (and others) called Richard Sevigny (MTL/QUE) Richard Sievengy.

    Everyone called Bob Sauve Bob Sieve.

    Agreed that we need to get that going again.

    What a drag it is getting older.

  74. Reja says:

    Caller Zen: Nah, because you just jinxed it!

    Neal’s on a mission as Jake and Elwood Blues once said so eloquently. I wouldn’t bet against Leon and Connor feeding the piss out of Neal down low for a 1:45 on every powerplay.

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer: Nope.
    I call those very high danger scoring chances even though they may be outside of the high danger scoring area
    Shots that the goalie has to move side to side and can’t get set for the shot or tipped shots are incredibly hard to stop

    You may call them that, and you’re probably correct.

    Everyone who references HDSC is taking it from Natural Stat Trick and I was referencing their requirements to be a HDSC.

    As per their requirements, neither Drai’s nor Nygard’s breakaway were HDSC due to shot location.

    Its one of the myriad of reasons that I don’t think that metric has any value other than “this is how many times a team shot from a small area in front of the net”

    Its fun to look at, but over the 10 years I examined it has 0 predictive value.

  76. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Philosophil:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Wondered the same. Need a fair comparison, I believe Jones played his off side (right side a a lefty) in some of his time with the big club last year.

    These two players are a developmental horse race, Bear with the big club due to handedness and a coach with fresh eyes and a preference for appropriate handedness (Lefties on the left).

    I’d like them both on the team next year.

    I’m good with trading him in a package if what you get back is good as EDM has Lagesson (who I think will be a better NHLer than Jones, but both will be good), Samarukov and Broberg coming with Klef and Nurse on the roster.

  77. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Aye.

    There’s the rub.

    NYC and sleep are not synonymous.

    Best part of afternoon games in New York. Our guys can go straight from the club to the game

  78. treevojo says:

    GMB3: Had a down year last year. Manson really fell off last year too which might play a role in it as well

    Ya I remember around the Vegas draft.

    Anaheim seemed to be loaded to the nuts with dmen.

    I thought Manson was going to be a beast as well.

    They seem to be off to a good start this year.

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: Yeah that’s my mistake. Got the raw numbers from Hockey Ref as I don’t get NST at work. Also rookie error, only 4 game sample size, so he can still play a lot of PK one game and none the next and it still swings the ATOI.

    Will disagree on the “not hard minutes on the body” on a few counts.

    1) PK is widely regarded as hard minutes. Better the QoC, harder it is. Or maybe not as they score sooner. Hmmm…. I have to look into that.

    2) Ken explicitly brought in role players for this. The only role you want Drai playing is as the destroyer of worlds.

    3) It’s early doors; everyone’s feeling good after the off season and winning 4 games. We’ll see on a cold February in Pittsburgh or Philly when Dave taps him on the shoulder and the bottom six are cheering him on the PK against Malkin, Crosby and Giroux.

    4) And if not the bottom six, at least have Nuge do it.

    A few things:

    In regards to “hard minutes” I was refering to the 4:44 on the PP, not the PK.

    PK are the toughest minutes in hockey. Always skating, always thinking.

    I think Drai had some 3v5 minutes vs LAK or NYI so that would inflate his TOI that wouldn’t be caught by my search of 4v5.

    Since Sheahan got back his 4v5 has dropped considerably, he was on the 3rd forward pair vs NJD so I’m not concerned about his 4v5 time.

    Agreed that 93 is the workhorse here playing 1PP and 2PK.

  80. Halfwise says:

    treevojo: Just looked up on the nslc.

    There looks to be a lighter bottle and a darker bottle both Alberta premium.

    Any difference?

    For $11 a Mickey it’s not an expensive test to see which one you like better…

  81. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: Thank you, been wondering about this all day.Didn’t know if the problem was on the NHL side or o the methodology side. Appreciate you clearing it up.

    You’re welcome.

    It also might be where the NJD off ice officials decided where Drai/Nygard actually shot the puck.

    Its tracked manually by people in the rink watching the game.

    It gets added to NHL game sheets that all the fancy stats sites download to dissect.

    Its very good info on the whole but in spots it can be iffy (especially if the game was played in MSG)

  82. Pandaup says:

    Halfwise,

    +1000. Pure rye is impossible to find anywhere near that price point. The Dark Horse is a bit pricier but also a bit more sophisticated. Also a bit higher ABV. Been drinking AP for years. Converted countless Crown Royal fans. Personally, love the sparse packaging.

  83. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Still don’t think Lagesson makes it on this team
    A couple of years ago. Was when LT said probably 1/3 of Bear Lagesson Jones makes it and I thought at least 2/3. Wish I remembered which post that was
    I had Bear as a second pairing
    Jones as 3rd pairing
    Lagesson as guy lost in shuffle who finds his way later on another team.
    Don’t see any reason to change it
    The more defensive minded guys get looked over as they need to be almost perfect in their zone but they need 200 games of experience to get them there so they get looked over

  84. treevojo says:

    Halfwise: For $11 a Mickey it’s not an expensive test to see which one you like better…

    True

  85. Halfwise says:

    treevojo: Just looked up on the nslc.

    There looks to be a lighter bottle and a darker bottle both Alberta premium.

    Any difference?

    Your biggest outlay will be that crystal decanter with the silver “Whiskey” tag.

  86. norm_klassen says:

    1 more season and russel and larsson are gone and the new age of Oilers D will begin
    Nurse-Bouchard
    Klefbom- bear
    Lagesson- jones maybe wishful thinking they all make it

  87. Halfwise says:

    Pandaup:
    Halfwise,

    +1000. Pure rye is impossible to find anywhere near that price point. The Dark Horse is a bit pricier but also a bit more sophisticated. Also a bit higher ABV. Been drinking AP for years. Converted countless Crown Royal fans. Personally, love the sparse packaging.

    I know.

    Stealth!

  88. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks! Wheels within wheels!

  89. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja: Neal’s on a mission as Jake and Elwood Blues once said so eloquently. I wouldn’t bet against Leon and Connor feeding the piss out of Neal down low for a 1:45 on every powerplay.

    Reja: Neal’s on a mission as Jake and Elwood Blues once said so eloquently. I wouldn’t bet against Leon and Connor feeding the piss out of Neal down low for a 1:45 on every powerplay.

    The Oilers have scored 18 goals.
    Neal has scored 7 of them.
    Neal has a 46.7% shooting percentage.
    What could possibly go wrong?

  90. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    digger50: The way camp played out I witnesses veterans get the benefit of the doubt and more time to adapt and I have no issue with this.

    As we get into the first ten games the roster is continuing to evolve and we will see the need for improving , need for scoring, and some players start to slide underwater.

    As that happens I would want him on the roster because he is better than others. Because he will add skill and scoring. There is a time to marinate and a time to make the jump. I don’t see him coming up to sit, but starting at 6 min game and up to 12 is a great way to bring along a new player.

    We will need some more skill added to the roster. It may not be Cooper either.

    I hope Holland does not act on what he thinks will happen (Chia) but what is actually happening. If this team shows they are about uts to take off, give them help if they need it.

    The issue with Marody isn’t skill, its skating.

    Playing against players he can keep up with he’s certainly an offensive asset.

    I don’t think anyone is sure if he can do that in the NHL though.

    I hope he can but I’d aim higher.

  91. OilFire says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The Oilers have scored 18 goals.
    Neal has scored 7 of them.
    Neal has a 46.7% shooting percentage.
    What could possibly go wrong?

    Oh no!
    The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

  92. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The Oilers have scored 18 goals.
    Neal has scored 7 of them.
    Neal has a 46.7% shooting percentage.
    What could possibly go wrong?

    No one expects him to score 140 goals this season
    But this team really needed someone with hands in close to finish some of those very easy scoring chances and to get him we traded an Ahler with a contract you can’t buy out

  93. Halfwise says:

    leadfarmer: No one expects him to score 140 goals this season
    But this team really needed someone with hands in close to finish some of those very easy scoring chances and to get him we traded an Ahler with a contract you can’t buy out

    Plus, to be fair, $10M cash from Katz’ sofa cushions.

  94. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: No one expects him to score 140 goals this season
    But this team really needed someone with hands in close to finish some of those very easy scoring chances and to get him we traded an Ahler with a contract you can’t buy out

    When the regression comes…and it will…things won’t look very rosy.

  95. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    treevojo:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Hey woodguy

    I have drank writers tears quite a few times now and quite enjoy it.

    Any other suggestions at the same price point because I’m kinda cheap and don’t like spending much more then that dollar range?

    Nothing worse then dropping a woodguy on a bottle and only getting two oilers games out of it.

    Easier to justify in that $50 range.

    In terms of $/awesomeness I don’t think Writers’ Tears can be beat.

    It used to $30/bottle!!!

    I like Red Breast 12 a lot, but its ~100/bottle.

    Knappogue Castle 12 is good and last I saw it was ~90

    I’ve never liked a Bushmill other than the 21, but others in that price are better.

    Middleton’s is waaaaaay overpriced.

    Tullamore Dew 12 is good and reasonably priced in spots, avoid anything other than their 12.

  96. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    treevojo: lindholm

    He is still a top 10 Dman imo.

    The team sucks (although might be better this year….) so that flavours the take on the players.

    They also play in the Pacific Time Zone and most hockey writers do not watch them.

  97. Ryan says:

    leadfarmer:
    Ryan,

    How many of those minutes Sekera played are with future All Star Heiskanen
    Also just because Sekera got bought out doesn’t mean Russell won’t get bought out

    Russell has a signing bonus on the last year of his contract. You can’t buy it out.

    The buyout cap hit on the last year of his contract is $3m. You’d probably do better just by sending him to the AHL.

    My point was that ideally you would find another player, preferably even worse, with a similar contract minus the signing bonus, to facilitate the trade.

    Then you would buyout that player.

  98. Genjutsu says:

    Ryan:
    Is it just me or does the Russell Benning pairing really struggle to move the puck out of their zone?

    That’s every pairing Russell is on.

  99. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    HT Joe: Forgive my ignorance, but Larsson isn’t simply a terrible blueliner is he?

    I mean, are the numbers looking like this because Larsson is always sent over the boards against the other team’s best players?

    For comparison, do we have a sense of how Klefbom and Nurse look when 29+97 are compared with or without them?

    *EDIT* Is it possible to get the numbers of 29+97, with or without Larsson, but break it down between Larsson being paired with Klefbom, Nurse, Russel, or other?I’m not trying to be demanding… it just sounds like the current dataset might be averaging and hiding something.

    Larsson was amazing in the year before Pete bought him 15/16.

    He was above average in 16/17

    He had a tough and below average year in 17/18 That’s the year his Dad died.

    He was terrible in 18/19.

    He told Gregor he had a bad back all year and I can easily imagine that losing his Dad still weighed heavily on him.

    I was looking forward to him having a good year this year.

    His skating in pre-season looked miles better than last year.

    I not sure I’d bet on him long term with that back.

    I liked him a lot in the past.

  100. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Halfwise: I’m going to go out on a limb here.

    There is one whiskey in Alberta that is a complete steal. It has a shitty bottle and label design. In a blind taste test it is unbeatable by anything twice the price, maybe three times the price.

    Alberta Premium rye. All rye, no other alcohols. Ahead of its time and never promoted properly. Hidden gem, no love except from those who really like good whisky and whiskey.

    Drink it neat or in a wetted glass.

    Thanks!!

    I’ll give a bottle a go.

    I love these recs.

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan:
    It’s only 5 games but…

    Sekera vs Russell

    Toi/g. 21:53 Sekera vs 17:07 Russell

    Ff % rel:4.12 Sek vs -2.31 Russell.

    Maybe we bought out the wrong guy.

    Speaking of buyouts.

    A wicked smart GM would look for a crappy player with a similar cap hit to Russell’s with one year left on it after this.

    Then he’d trade Russell for that player in the offseason to escape the poison pill that is Russell ‘s last year signing bonus on his buyout cap hit.

    Sekera is playing with Heiskenen.

    Who a player plays with is the single most important variable in his results.

  102. treevojo says:

    Woodguy v2.0: In terms of $/awesomeness I don’t think Writers’ Tears can be beat.

    It used to $30/bottle!!!

    I like Red Breast 12 a lot, but its ~100/bottle.

    Knappogue Castle 12 is good and last I saw it was ~90

    I’ve never liked a Bushmill other than the 21, but others in that price are better.

    Middleton’s is waaaaaay overpriced.

    Tullamore Dew 12 is good and reasonably priced in spots, avoid anything other than their 12.

    Thanks.

    Really have enjoyed writers tears.

    Hoped you had another hidden gem in that range.

    You ever get around to trying my wife’s fav scapa?

    Ya wasn’t sure if the fancies were still loving hampus.

    Never hear his name anymore.

  103. Fiveinatrailer says:

    Would it be sacrilegious for anyone to suggest a spiced rum?
    Just opened a bottle of $50 rum. My first non- cheapo rum.

    Dad and Grandpa always drank navy white or lambs so I was turned off of rum’s paint thinner like qualities in the cheap varieties for 40 years…

  104. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Still don’t think Lagesson makes it on this team
    A couple of years ago.Was when LT said probably 1/3 of Bear Lagesson Jones makes it and I thought at least 2/3.Wish I remembered which post that was
    I had Bear as a second pairing
    Jones as 3rd pairing
    Lagesson as guy lost in shuffle who finds his way later on another team.
    Don’t see any reason to change it
    The more defensive minded guys get looked over as they need to be almost perfect in their zone but they need 200 games of experience to get them there so they get looked over

    I think that Laggeson has the combination of skating, toughness and passing that makes him this generation’s “Larsson”

    Ymmv.

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    treevojo,

    You ever get around to trying my wife’s fav scapa?

    Please refresh my memory…

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    All,

    Off here for the night.

    Good convo all.

  107. treevojo says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    treevojo,

    You ever get around to trying my wife’s fav scapa?

    Please refresh my memory…

    Scotch.

    But not much peat cause you are not a fan.

  108. John Chambers says:

    Eric Duhatschek makes the point that the Lucic – Neal trade is a win-win: https://theathletic.com/1287498/2019/10/11/duhatschek-notebook-neal-for-lucic-trade-is-a-rare-win-win-and-why-the-jets-should-be-patient-with-byfuglien/

    Honestly if Flames fans and their media want to put a positive spin on a $5.25M 4th liner who needs to be expansion draft protected, well then we’ll let them. Fill yer boots, Cowboys.

    As for myself I’ll just enjoy watching the reality of Mr Holland’s Masterpiece play itself out on the ice.

  109. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Nope, not at all.

    It shows that, yes, sometimes those goals do go in in the NHL.

    How many times does it go in in Liiga?Probably not many more than in the NHL.

    Yes, but this ignores context. Is the goal today something that’s going to generate a bid on Pujo’s services? Does it indicate anything about NHL level of ability? It’s nice that he scored but it’s pretty obvious the answer to both those questions is “no”. That goal is not going to move the dial.

    I would be more encouraged if we heard confirmation whispers of CAR scouts at the game today, or the same about Oiler scouts at the Gauthier debut.

    Not saying that’s the deal I’d necessarily want but activity of any sort would be good news. Beyond the usual verbal from KH, that is.

  110. Schitzo says:

    So I’m sure the NHL is a long way from considering NBA-style load management, but curious to know what people think.

    Would the Oilers have a better regular season if they:
    a. Scale back 97 and 29 to a more reasonable TOI per game, and play them 82 games; or
    b. Rest them six or eight games a year as the schedule dictates (say one of two BTB games, or on “scheduled loss” type games like a road game in Tampa, or skipping one-game road trips to save them from travelling)

  111. Munny says:

    treevojo: Scotch.

    But not much peat cause you are not a fan.

    If you’re looking for a reasonably priced scotch that’s light, smooth, non-peaty, I’d recommend Dalwhinnie.

  112. leadfarmer says:

    Munny: If you’re looking for a reasonably price scotch that’s light, smooth, non-peaty, I’d recommend Dalwhinnie.

    I’d recommend old pulteney 12 or oban little bay

  113. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The issue with Marody isn’t skill, its skating.

    Playing against players he can keep up with he’s certainly an offensive asset.

    I don’t think anyone is sure if he can do that in the NHL though.

    I hope he can but I’d aim higher.

    One hundred percent agreed. If he can have a Bear-like summer and improve his skating I’d welcome with open arms. But he needs that step.

  114. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Sekera is playing with Heiskenen.

    Who a player plays with is the single most important variable in his results.

    Yes.

  115. Ryan says:

    Schitzo:
    So I’m sure the NHL is a long way from considering NBA-style load management, but curious to know what people think.

    Would the Oilers have a better regular season if they:
    a.Scale back 97 and 29 to a more reasonable TOI per game, and play them 82 games; or
    b.Rest them six or eight games a year as the schedule dictates (say one of two BTB games, or on “scheduled loss” type games like a road game in Tampa, or skipping one-game road trips to save them from travelling)

    Great question.

    While I agree that allocation of ice time for 97 and 29 is analogous to spending currency, I don’t think I like either of your choices. I’ll start with the latter first.

    There’s only about a 3 percent difference in reg wins for all road games vs back-to-back road games. (44 vs 41).

    The Oilers win rate if they sit 97 and 29, for a road game in a bac-to-back, would be what? 10%. Depending on energy levels, you could make an argument do this once or twice maybe, but not for all the b2b games.

    As for the flat ice time, I think it would make most sense to titrate their ice time by score, opponent, game state etc.

    You’d want a sophisticated algorithm and a means to accurately calculate probability of a win or tie (updated continuously during game). If during a game, the probability of obtaining points were too low, you’d pull them.

    Home vs road, opponent, score, time of game, etc.

    I.e, if the Oilers are down 4 in the first period at any time, you’d pull the chute and not play them.

    – down 4 at any time in first period, pull.
    – down 3 after the first, pull
    – down 2 after the second period (vs good opponents), pull
    – up four goals, drastically reduce shifts
    – up three goals after the second, drastically reduce ice
    – home game, soft opponent, push ice time as necessary
    – push ice time on home games.
    – push ice time vs soft opponents until solid lead.
    – road game, soft opponent, opponent on b2b, push ice time as necessary
    – road game, b2b, tough opponents that’s rested, pull once down 2g

    Etc.

    The players themselves would hate this as it would wreck their scoring stats.

  116. digger50 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The issue with Marody isn’t skill, its skating.

    Playing against players he can keep up with he’s certainly an offensive asset.

    I don’t think anyone is sure if he can do that in the NHL though.

    I hope he can but I’d aim higher.

    As mentioned, it may not be Cooper, though I do believe he will end up being an upgrade on several players.

    It may be Yamamoto, Benson, Currie, Gambia, but in my opinion there is a swap or two coming by game 20. Granlund isn’t going to make it.

  117. Schitzo says:

    Ryan,

    A very well thought out response to a half-baked question, thanks for this. Maybe the other refinement would be resting one in any given game rather than both, if defending a lead. We saw how safe 5-1 felt against the Isles, not sure we could spare both of them.

  118. HT Joe says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks for that. If a bad back was ailing him last year, maybe he can work in some more physio while waiting for his foot/ankle to heal. Maybe it’s a blessing in disguise, so when he returns to the ice he’ll be closer to his 2015-2017 performance.

  119. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair: When the regression comes…and it will…things won’t look very rosy.

    Oooh. Ooh ooh
    Do JT Miller next

  120. SK Oiler Fan says:

    Ryan,

    Well described as it should be implemented. I think most coaches employ a bit of this strategy, but as you mention, the players have their own personal goals regardless of what is best for the team in the long haul. Reality is you’d never get your whole team to buy into this. Agents would have a field day on twitter

  121. OriginalPouzar says:

    digger: Rieder had a lot of speed though right?

    Yes he did.

  122. oilersfan says:

    Harpers hair

    Don’t worry when the Neal regression comes Chiasson’s heater will start

    He’s shooting zero % he’s bound to improve isn’t he ?

    😏

  123. Wilde says:

    Halfwise,

    This is the goddamn truth and it’d be common knowledge if the world made sense

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: Russell has a signing bonus on the last year of his contract. You can’t buy it out.

    The buyout cap hit on the last year of his contract is $3m. You’d probably do better just by sending him to the AHL.

    My point was that ideally you would find another player, preferably even worse, with a similar contract minus the signing bonus, to facilitate the trade.

    Then you would buyout that player.

    That’s not ideal.

    Ideal is trading Russell clean for $4M of cap space.

    That may not be reasonable but I think the asset is tradeable without taking back a bad contract with $500K-$1M retained.

  125. yeraslob says:

    Harpers Hair,

    A very troll-like post. You seem more of a flames fan. This site is not for you. Commenting on Sportsnet articles is more your speed. There’s an obvious troll there you’d like; kindred spirits one could say. Some call him spillies or spilly, not sure why.

  126. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Lagesson (who I think will be a better NHLer than Jones

    Fight me.

  127. Pescador says:

    Wilde: Fight me.

    Writers tears beget Writers threats

  128. Pescador says:

    Fiveinatrailer:
    Would it be sacrilegious for anyone to suggest a spiced rum?
    Just opened a bottle of $50 rum. My first non- cheapo rum.

    Dad and Grandpa always drank navy white or lambs so I was turned off of rum’s paint thinner like qualities in the cheap varieties for 40 years…

    Damn high faluten rich folk & thier Captain Morgan!
    I once spent 50 quid on an expensive bottle of rum,
    It was a 60lb. er

  129. kgo says:

    digger50: As mentioned, it may not be Cooper, though I do believe he will end up being an upgrade on several players.

    It may be Yamamoto, Benson, Currie, Gambia, but in my opinion there is a swap or two coming by game 20. Granlund isn’t going to make it.

    Someone has to get flushed even without an AHL callup…Archibald over Granlund is my guess

  130. Pescador says:

    OriginalPouzar: That’s not ideal.

    Ideal is trading Russell clean for $4M of cap space.

    That may not be reasonable but I think the asset is tradeable without taking back a bad contract with $500K-$1M retained.

    I wonder if Treliving would be interested in trading a third round pick for Russell?
    Pretty sure they are going to have an extra one in the up coming draft

  131. kgo says:

    treevojo: Thanks.

    Really have enjoyed writers tears.

    Hoped you had another hidden gem in that range.

    You ever get around to trying my wife’s fav scapa?

    Ya wasn’t sure if the fancies were still loving hampus.

    Never hear his name anymore.

    Writer’s tears is shifty…bottle is only 700ml! Glenlevit is hard to beat, and they have a vintage at every pricepoint…21 years, 18 years, 15 years, 12 years, founders reserve etc

  132. Ribs says:

    My father-in-law isn’t allowed to drink Alberta Premium any more. His three daughters and wife forbid it. It fires up the blood a little too much! lol

  133. Pandaup says:

    Ribs:
    My father-in-law isn’t allowed to drink Alberta Premium any more. His three daughters and wife forbid it. It fires up the blood a little too much! lol

    Strong work by all. Do good it’s hard to stop at one. Bottle.

  134. Pandaup says:

    Pandaup: Strong work by all. Do good it’s hard to stop at one. Bottle.

    *So good* of course.

  135. Halfwise says:

    Pandaup: Strong work by all. So good it’s hard to stop at one. Bottle.

    Old Scottish saying about whisky: “One’s too many and a hundred’s not enough”.

  136. Ivan says:

    Halfwise: I’m going to go out on a limb here.

    There is one whiskey in Alberta that is a complete steal. It has a shitty bottle and label design. In a blind taste test it is unbeatable by anything twice the price, maybe three times the price.

    Alberta Premium rye. All rye, no other alcohols. Ahead of its time and never promoted properly. Hidden gem, no love except from those who really like good whisky and whiskey.

    Drink it neat or in a wetted glass.

    This is absolute truth. probably the most underrated Rye in Canada.When I head stateside (fairly often) and sit at a good cocktail bar (always) chatting with the bartender, they ask me to bring them a couple bottles back next time i come. Which of course I would NEVER do, as it violates international law……
    But yeah, it’s delicious. Best value in Canada.

  137. Halfwise says:

    Ivan: This is absolute truth. probably the most underrated Rye in Canada.When I head stateside (fairly often) and sit at a good cocktail bar (always) chatting with the bartender, they ask me to bring them a couple bottles back next time i come. Which of course I would NEVER do, as it violates international law……
    But yeah, it’s delicious. Best value in Canada.

    I live in BC and can buy a plastic Mickey of it for $11 and change at a government run liquor store. It’s bizarre. If I was Suntory or Diageo I would buy all of it in bulk and sell it back to Canada in heavy bottles at 4 times the price.

  138. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The issue with Marody isn’t skill, its skating.

    Playing against players he can keep up with he’s certainly an offensive asset.

    I don’t think anyone is sure if he can do that in the NHL though.

    I hope he can but I’d aim higher.

    We thought skating would hold Ethan Bear back too, but he put a tremendous amount of work into it over the summer and it’s no longer a deficit. Marody still has time to rectify the skating issue.

  139. Sierra says:

    HT Joe:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Thanks for that. If a bad back was ailing him last year, maybe he can work in some more physio while waiting for his foot/ankle to heal. Maybe it’s a blessing in disguise, so when he returns to the ice he’ll be closer to his 2015-2017 performance.

    You don’t think he did Physio all summer…and all season if he has a bad back?

    I’d bet my house he did/does.

  140. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pescador: I wonder if Treliving would be interested in trading a third round pick for Russell?
    Pretty sure they are going to have an extra one in the up coming draft

    They have zero cap space.

  141. CallighenMan says:

    Jordan:
    Saturday will be very interesting to watch.

    Rags are a very good team this year and haven’t played in a week.Should be rested, but could be rusty.

    Game is at 11 MT, so it could be a write off for the Oilers considering their recent history with afternoon games.

    Oilers continue to out-perform my predictions, which is nice to see, but like many here, I don’t trust it.

    Jersey deserved that win in regulation – glad we stole 2 points.

    That play was perfect, so doesn’t qualify as a high danger chance.It’s a perfect scoring chance.Only one in that game.

    “deserves” has got nuthin’ to do with it …

« Older Comments

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca