In the seventh game of the Edmonton Oilers NHL experience, the club entered Madison Square Garden and were flattened (10-2) by a veteran Rangers team. John Davidson stopped everyone but Al Hamilton and Stan Weir, while Eddie Mio and Dave Dryden were victims of Don Murdoch, Ulf Nilsson and Lucien Deblois (all twice). A week later, Deblois was sent to the Colorado Rockies (along with Pat Hickey, Mike McEwen, Bobby Sheehan and Dean Turner) for Barry Beck. The Rangers do not have a winning record against the Oilers (34-31-11 in 76 games favors Edmonton) but Manhattan can be a dangerous place for a hockey team. Plus, for some reason don’t know why, afternoon games on weekends often turn into Saturday Splatterday or Sunday Bummed Day for Oilers fans. It’s an early game. Don’t forget!
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 positives in the Oilers’ 4 wins that may not be sustainable
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ Oscar Klefbom playing tough minutes with inexperienced partners — and looking good doing it
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He’s addicted to getting better’: What the Oilers are saying about Connor McDavid’s amazing start
- Eric Duhatschek: The lasting impact of The Gretzky Effect, 40 years after his NHL debut
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers who could win (or lose) NHL jobs early in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Several unproven players are earning NHL jobs and increasing roster quality and depth. No balance photo, but some traction early.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why Riley Sheahan could be a key ingredient the Oilers have been missing
- Jonathan Willis: Bet on James Neal rebounding with Oilers, just not all the way
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Joel Persson went from being a part-time teacher three years ago to patrolling the Oilers blue line (this is exceptional).
- Lowetide: Keeping an eye on Jesse Puljujarvi: Which teams could emerge as potential trade partners?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
- Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
OILERS IN OCTOBER
- Oilers in October 2015: 1-4-0, goal differential -5
- Oilers in October 2016: 4-1-0, goal differential +4
- Oilers in October 2017: 1-4-0, goal differential -8
- Oilers in October 2018: 3-2-0, goal differential -3
- Oilers in October 2019: 4-0-0, goal differential +5
Edmonton has a chance to make this start a special one historically, but there were some cracks in New Jersey. Coach Tippett is going to make some moves up front based on yesterday’s practice, with Alex Chiasson and Josh Archibald coming back into the lineup. That may mean a roster move, stay tuned for news before game time.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (2-0-0)
- At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 4-0-0, 8 points after 4 games
I think the Chicago game is an easier challenge but it’s so early in the season. From what I’ve seen of the Rangers they’re a far more substantial offensive team than we’ve seen in previous years. That damned senior citizen Artemi Panarin is on his way to owning Manhattan. Mika Zibanejad, long a favorite of this blog’s author, is an absolute rocket through two games this season.
OILERS 2019-20
Oilers are getting some scoring outside the McDavid line, the 97 trio should be going on an outscoring spree soon. The even strength goals for/against splits (McDavid ON: 6-4; McDavid OFF: 5-6) are good in the early days. The James Neal story is an absolute monster, I know you’re already sick of the hype but in real hockey terms Ken Holland traded a headache for a dream. I’m a Milan Lucic fan, wish him well. I predicted 18 goals for Neal, I’m no seer. Don’t let a massive story pass you by just because the media is using a 10-pound hammer.
LAST NIGHT
I’ll be doing an article on this tomorrow for The Athletic, but Raphael Lavoie (2-1-3) had a big night for Halifax and is now 9, 5-8-13 in 2019-20. In the same game, Olivier Rodrigue stopped 18 of 21 for the Moncton Wildcats, his SP so far is .914. The college season got underway last night and several Oilers prospects were in action. Mike Kesselring had five shots for Northeastern, while Aapeli Rasanen was 4-of-8 in the dot for Boston College (Graham McPhee won three of four).
SkatinginSand,
Yup. So if a goalie is perfect positionally and never has to move to make a save, all the shots will
be closed shots. This is great goaltending. The more “closed shots” you face as a goalie could easily, although not necessarily, be a sign of an amazing ng goalie.
Even a perfectly placed shot on a properly positioned goalie is still going to go off a shoulder, arm, or pad with no movement required once the goalie is set.
Bullshit. You are completely discounting a goalie’s ability to get into position to make the easy “closed shot” save.
According to many excellent goalie coaches, a perfect game by a goalie is when every shot hits him in the chest. He was in perfect position to make every save and that is an essential skill developed by endless skating drills.
However, according to you, none of the shots had any chance of getting in.
Lol the phlegms fans complaining about Lucic is pure gold.
5 games and we have 10 points. Thats 10 points in the bank.
Only need 87 points in the next 77 games to hit my prediction 🙂
No way Id look at thinking about trading Larsson this year.
Bear and Persson have looked good but the middle of the season/ end of season games are a lot tougher than the first 5 games of the season.
Keep Larsson and when he is up to speed, put him with Klefbom.
Nurse with Bear
Russell with Benning/Persson
If Bear and Persson show to be top 4 Dman for much of the year, then yeah, Id look at trading Larsson in the summer, but not before.
Pescador,
Not an excuse, but I do think back to this post:
https://lowetide.ca/2019/09/28/2019-20-preseason-game-7-oilers-at-flames/comment-page-2/#comment-865157
I really hope that Bouchard doesn’t play an NHL game until the playoffs (if needed for backup and experience while the Oilers are en route to the Finals… 😉 hehe), then heats it up next season to win the Calder.
The Buffalo Sabres in the 2006 playoffs?
The Edmonton Oilers in the 2006 offseason?
The Oilers aren’t just leading the league after 5 and one of the last few undefeated teams, they are also leading the league in goal differential – full value for that placement.
Despite a tough year last year, Adam Larsson remains an important part of this team and his value will be most evident down the stretch and in the playoffs.
The best part about what we are seeing now is that Tippett MAY have the ability to give Larsson some help with the tough 5 on 5 minutes and the PK minutes. Since the day he arrived, Larsson has played 1RD on this team, the toughest minutes on the team, night in and night out. Truth be told, his skill set lends itself more to a 2RD deployment.
Now, neither Ethan Bear nor Joel Persson are currently legit 1RD in the NHL, I’m sure we can all agree on that, however, they are both doing well, and Bear somewhat excelling, playing with plus “veteran” LD partners. When Larsson comes back, while he will still take on some tough 1RD minutes, I”m sure, coach Tip will also be able to give Larsson some help with those minutes and spread them through a few of his personnel.
This is a wonderful thing.
So far, so good.
#ethanbearthatissomechrisprongershit!
I’m glad we don’t play the Flames till the end of December it could get real messy in Calgary if Milan becomes the whipping boy. Oiler players better skate with their heads up and be aware when Milan’s on the ice because I could see him on a mission to land a couple of bone crushing hits.
Knock on wood and love the player (I own a Klefbom jersey) but better keep all the depth imho. Klefbom has only one 82 game season so your IF is a really big IF
Perhaps its robbing Peter to pay Paul but I’d explore the option. Klefbom if healthy is a better 1D and I have concern about Nurse’s next contract. Like the player though and certainly cheer for him. Just saying if a good deal comes across the phone it’s a position the Oilers have a better chance at covering
There is a way…it’s not very likely but if all 3 existing RHD improve steadily and Bouchard plays 20 games and excels, and then We have an injury at Centre….I can see Larsson traded to fix a hole before the playoff drive
This is a good point, but I’ve never seen a D corps dismantled like Winnipeg’s in the 31 years I’ve been watching hockey, kind of reminds me of when Vancouver had luongo and Schneider….then poof both were gone
The current Winnipeg D situation is a wonderful cautionary tale of why we should think twice about trading any of Nurse, Larsson, and whoever else has been bandied about in this thread.
One last thing… Ted Green was a client of mine for 5-6 years.
One of the classiest people you will ever meet.
He is missed.
RIP Teddy.
EVERYBODY STOP TRADING LARSSON!
Long road, he’s a beauty, thanks.
Are you trying to say they’re not all glowing reviews?
18/19
V. Dunn
#10 D .45 evg/60
#23 D 2.11 evg/60
Off and defence in top 25 Very unusual.
No matter the comp that is an elite Dman.
1.68 evga/60 continuing matching history.
Bouwmeester
13/14 2.00 evga/60
14/15 2.19
15/16 2.13
16/17 2.57
17/18 2.01
18/19 2.13
19/20 2.46
Pietrangelo
13/14 2.24 evga/60
14/15 2.61
15/16 2.09
16/17 2.95
17/18 2.46
18/19 2.85
19/20 4.57
Nurse
15/16 3.05 evga/60
16/17 2.69
17/18 2.39
18/19 3.03
19/20 2.98
Klefbom
13/14 3.53 evga/60
14/15 3.18
15/16 2.77
16/17 2.70
17/18 3.47
18/19 2.67
19/20 3.45
Nurse and Klefboms numbers are not unexpected.
Larsson
13/14 1.83
14/15 1.93
15/16 1.43
16/17 2.31
17/18 2.50
18/19 3.03
19/20 0.00
Would expect sub 2.00 in a Def system Tippett runs.
Ryan we use history to see if this is out of the ordinary or usual.
Then you can form a point of view based on knowledge of player history.
Versus an Opinion: point of view not based on facts or knowledge.
Your response is fair.
Deeper resolution.
Check
Nurse
Klefbom
Larsson
Pietrangelo
Parayko
Look at WoWY pairs.
look at open shot density ( baseline save%) to every d side by the 4 level of comp.
Do you feel comfortable posting the data cause it matches past history?
Stunning how many comments on Flames Nation revolve around Lucic. I’ll be surprised if he’s in the league two years from now.
Pescador:
How does a table hockey goalie stop shots.
Moves with the puck.
Ph1 of tracking.
The puck truly hits the goalie it has no chance of going in.
Classic is puck shot in the glove with no movement of arm.
Then the arm swing.
That is a closed shots.
Not a Save!
It is simple.
Pucks that are directly shot into any part of goalie pads, pants, chest protector, blocker, glove, shoulder pad, arm pads, helmet have 0% chance of going in.
Only saves occur when a corsi reaches open space in net elevation requiring a goalie to actually move to make a save.
Shot Quality
Scoreable/ non scoreable
You measure a goalie by the open shots he saves.
The true HD area density map is created by only taking the success average of all open shots by x,y location.
You get a true xGA.
You get a true baseline save% for a Dmans side by open shot density yeilded.
This is a 45+ yr old observation.
Worked with dDryden and his D
Worked with JVB and his D
Worked with Roy and his D
Worked with NJD who had years of 20 shot/ gm seasons with games of zero open shots.
OnLy scoreable shots go in.
But pocession is measured by phase.
A rebound shot is a new phase.
Blocks + misses + hit goalie ( closed shot) are non scoreable corsi.
Easy peasey!
Better Resolution.
Shot density based on only scoreable shots.
Finally accurate measure.
Not fake Data from closed shots.
Kinger_Oil.redux,InIIn Was in New YIn New York 2 games 2 wins amazing
No offence, but the Nucks are nothing to write home about. If Edler and Myers are your top pair, the team is in trouble. Any success they have enjoyed this year can almost completely be attributed to Markstrom. He looks amazing.
Ryan,
Great post. Would not surprise me if this was a general truth. It’s what I would do if I was a coach. I’d rather have a better pair take a defensive zone face off over my poorest, for eg.
Be curious to know how this looks for other teams.
One funny thing I noticed looking at NST tonight.
Here’s last year’s blue sorted by all 5v5 toi/60 (min 500 min)
Parayko
Pietrangelo
Bouwmeister
Edmundson
Dunn
Bortuzzo
Here’s last year’s blue sorted by on the fly shifts/60 at 5v5 (least minutes to most)
Parayko
Pietrangelo
Bouwmeester
Edmundson
Dunn
Bortuzzo
—
Looks like coaches presumably play their best dmen the most… and give the most on the fly starts per 60 to their worst dmen.
—
Oilers leaders this season in On the fly starts /60
Benning
Persson
Russell
KBomb
Nurse
Bear
Least on the fly starts/60 for dmen
Bear
Nurse
KBomb
Russell
Persson
Benning
Oilers d sorted by 5v5 toi/60
Nurse
Bear
Klefbomb
Persson
Russell
Benning
—
Looks like Tippett is hiding his Rickibox dmen at 5v5.
If only he knew their evga/60!!!
I totally agree. Lucic seems like a pretty good guy and I have nothing against him personally.
It’s just nice to see him weighing the Flames down of all teams, and it’s hilarious seeing fans, journalists and ‘experts’ still defending and justifying the trade.
If Lucic were on any other team I would probably not be posting about him so much as I do now.
I wish the guy no ill will, but it’s such a pleasure not watching him this year. He was such a frustrating player to watch.
Brian Burke was talking about how the Flames needed a guy like Lucic because his fights fire up the team.
I wonder how many fights Lucic needs to get into tonight for this Flames comeback to happen.
St. Louis Blues.
Bouwmeister:
5 gp 19:13 ev min/gm; 2.52 evga/60
V Dunn
5 gp 13:57 ev min/ gm; 1.72 evga/60
————————————————— last 2 season median 2.64 evga/60
J Faulk:
5 gp 16:29 ev min/ gm; 2.91 evga/60
C Parayko:
5 gp 20:00 ev min/gm; 3 evga/60
A Pietrangelo
5 gp 17:13 ev min/ gm; 4.18 evga/60
Gunnarson:
3 gp 13:34 ev min/gm; 4.42 evga/60
2 better than average.
The other 4 need to be more consistent versus the comp they are suppose to be able to handle.
NuF said.
Now let’s get Doug Armstrong on the phone and convince him that Pietrangelo and Parayko are two of his 3 worst defensemen.
5-2 Knights
There’s no way Larsson is getting traded at the TD if the Oil are in the playoffs.
No way.
Ya. You’re probably right.
A most enjoyable game day thread. The running Kinger was priceless.
19/20
5 wins 13 GA 2.60 GAPGM
4 of the wins 8 GA 2.00
Sens beat the lightning among other upsets today any team can win on a given night.
Lead:
I have stated that 3-1-1-1 structure has become a higher % of play.
As a result 3-1-1-1 teams make the playoffs.
CGY
Vs Col 4 losses 17 GA 4.25 GAPGM
TOR
Vs BOS 4 losses 19 GA 4.75 GAPGM
WPG
Vs STL 4 losses 12 GA 3.00 GAPGM
WSH
Vs CAR 4 losses 16 GA 4.00 GAPGM
PIT
VS NYI 4 losses 14 GA 3.50 GAPGM
CBJ
Vs TMP 4 wins 8 GA 2.00 GAPGM
Vs BOS 4 losses 14 GA 3.50 GAPGM
COL
Vs CGY 4 wins 7 GA 1.75 GAPGM
VS SJS 4 losses 14 GA 3.50 GAPGM
Most 3-1-1-1 dominate teams are gone after first 2 rounds.
SJS got thru VGK because of refs major call.
Faced a 3-2-1 team in Conf final.
And I doubt Sammy is even ready for a NHL game until at least mid season 2020/21 and Borberg may not even be in North America until 2021/22 (although I think he will likely be a condor next year).
This makes sense to me.
But it doesn’t take a secret theory to understand that team defense wins championships.
I think you give way to much credit to each individual Dman who played in these games.
Try adding some context, like what was the sv% of each goalie from the winning team as well as the loser.
I don’t see how you can attribute high shot suppression to individual dmen without also considering the Wowy’s from the forward group.
Who do you image the STL d perform this metric better with, Ryan O’Reilly or Vlad Tarasenko?
I think I would wait to see how they fare against teams that made the playoffs last season before getting too excited.
Isn’t this just a rebranding of Fenwick or Dangerous Fenwick?
Your explanation of open hole shot vs. closed hole shot doesn’t make any sense.
Seems to me that you keep coming on the blog almost every day to throw rocks at other posters who try to engage with you.
Then you seem to suggest the problem is our collective low level of intelligence as the reason why nobody gets your theory except for you.
When you decide to try being respectful of the people you wish to debate with, you will probably find more who are accepting of your claims to being the inventor.
I thought Chase played a real good game. We all know he was a second fiddle free agent signing but for a paltry 1.6 percent of the cap for a team leader that’s in his prime years I just don’t get the whipping boy comments he receives. I still think he pots 17 goals even though he’s off PP1 for now.
STL cup champions
Vs BOS 4 wins 6 GA 1.50 GAPGM
Vs SJS 4 wins 4 GA 1.00 GAPGM
VS Dal 4 wins 7 GA 1.75 GAPGM
VS WPG 4 wins 8 GA 2.00 GAPGM
Lucic was struggling to score on the PP with McD, Drai & RNH.
So naturally he will regain that touch with Guadreau, Monahan and Lindholm
How many games until Peter’s pulls the plug?
Clog:
Your opinion is
if Russell and Benning we’re playing 1st comp they would get clobbered.
So the Opposition coaches have been running their best against them on the road and destroying them.
Right?
Right!
I wait for your data.
I would trust them against 2nd/ 3rd/ 4th comp were they have both shown top 40 Open HD def.
Do not see them as 1st comp.
As a physician I look for explanations for what goes on in the world
Your GA explanation is complete opposite of where the league has been going
You may disagree where the league is heading but that is not an explanation
They played a perfect rope a dope road game they had so many good looks the score flattened the Rangers. Teams with a top 10 PP and PK do not miss the Playoffs Baby.
Leadfarmer::
you forgot I am the one who came up with open and closed corsi from a 45 yr old observation.
The guy that pointed out the reduction of corsi to non scoreable is the best def skill.
So the best off skill is open space targeting partnered with homeplate penetration.
Why I argued Eberle’s shooting % could be repeated.
But I can understand why you did not answer the question.
I allways say
2GA or less.
GA win championships.
Nuf said?!
Are you not watching the game at all to put the numbers infront in context?! Nuf said.. Nuf said.. Like wtf is a nuf?!
Rookie D playing top pairing minutes looking every bit the part while the team is scoring and winning and he’s suppose to pull his socks up!?! Where the fuck does one pull his socks up to!?!
Stats are great but they can also point out when someone isn’t watching the actual game, and choosing when and how to apply the stats.
If you watched the games you’d know that if a Russell/Benning pairing was playing top line minutes against top line competitor the Oilers would be getting there heads kicked in from Ladysmith to New Brunswick and everywhere in between.
If you want anyone to take your stats seriously watch the game!
Nuf said.. Fuuuuck
Nurse will get paid and that is fine in my opinion.
He’s part of the core fabric of this team. Trading him would rip our guts out.