Shy Town

The Edmonton Oilers didn’t play very well in Chicago. The young blue were exposed, the bottom six didn’t execute, the team’s best players missed some 10-bell chances. There’s not much to fret over, Edmonton was running some fine luck through five games and maybe didn’t get enough in the Windy City. They wasted a fabulous Mike Smith performance, but other than that I’d say it was a night where the correct team got the two points. There’s justice in that, if not satisfaction.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Dom Luszczyszyn: Is the Oilers’ hot start for real?
  • New Lowetide: How will the Oilers compensate when James Neal’s scoring cools off?
  • New Lowetide: Raphael Lavoie delivers high-octane offence to lead Oilers prospect performances.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Mike Smith is charged up, and that’s a big reason behind the Oilers’ surprising 5-0 start
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 positives in the Oilers’ 4 wins that may not be sustainable
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ Oscar Klefbom playing tough minutes with inexperienced partners — and looking good doing it
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He’s addicted to getting better’: What the Oilers are saying about Connor McDavid’s amazing start
  • Eric Duhatschek: The lasting impact of The Gretzky Effect, 40 years after his NHL debut
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers who could win (or lose) NHL jobs early in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Several unproven players are earning NHL jobs and increasing roster quality and depth. No balance photo, but some traction early.
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why Riley Sheahan could be a key ingredient the Oilers have been missing
  • Jonathan Willis: Bet on James Neal rebounding with Oilers, just not all the way
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Joel Persson went from being a part-time teacher three years ago to patrolling the Oilers blue line (this is exceptional).
  • Lowetide: Keeping an eye on Jesse Puljujarvi: Which teams could emerge as potential trade partners?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Oscar Klefbom on being a mentor, his strategy for staying healthy and saying goodbye to a friend.
  • Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 2015: 2-4-0, goal differential -4
  • Oilers in October 2016: 5-1-0, goal differential +7
  • Oilers in October 2017: 2-4-0, goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2018: 3-3-0, goal differential -6
  • Oilers in October 2019: 5-1-0, goal differential +6

Yesterday in this section I wrote “at some point the Oilers will run into bad luck early and the game will get away from them, and we’ll see an “L”. Edmonton would appear to be the better team based on early results, but you never know” and it happened just this way. The key for Dave Tippett and his Oilers? Don’t turn one loss into five. A big game tomorrow in Edmonton, another on Friday.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (3-1-0)
  • At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0)
  • At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 5-1-0, 10 points after 6 games

I predicted the Oilers would start 3-2-1 (seven points) and the team romped to a 5-1-0 (10 points) record in the opening chapters. Don’t you dare walk around gloom and doom, this is a fabulous start. I once saw a presentation by a man named W. Mitchell and it was maybe the most emotional life story I’ve ever witnessed. If you’re feeling bad about the Oilers, read that damned book. This has been a good start.

This was a fun game to watch because all of those new players faced some tough moments and had to put bad shifts behind them and perform well the next turn. Not all succeeded. NTS has the stats, everything is five-on-five unless noted, B flat and follow the changes.

LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 15:40 together, 14-20 Corsi, 8-11 shots, no goals and 5-3 HDSC’s.

Leon Draisaitl had an assist, two HDSC and three shots on goal. Connor McDavid had three HDSC, skated miles and played over 26 minutes (as did Leon). Both big men looked exhausted at times, but in Tippett’s defense they had five HDSC’s between them. Zack Kassian had three shots, one HDSC and was very physical.

LINE 2 Tomas Jurco-Nuge-James Neal played 8:11 together, 8-5 Corsi, 5-5 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC.

Tomas Jurco had a HDSC and man he drove to the net under heavy fire at least once. This is a man trying to establish himself. You have to respect that, but he needs to score. Nuge had a PP assist, PK’d like a demon and delivered a Nuge night overall. James Neal scored again, now eight in six games. My goodness Flames fans are going to be having nightmares about that damned trade this winter.

LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 7:13 together, going 9-7 Corsi, 7-5 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-3 HDSC. This line was on the ice for the Kane goal.

Jujhar Khaira had a shot, was physical, but also hesitant and slow to recognize danger. Took 4 pims. Riley Sheahan had a great early chance, I would have rated it high danger. Solid on the dot. Josh Archibald had a stunning point blank chance and missed the net. His mark (Patrick Kane) got the first goal with Archibald also in photo. He’s not a fan favourite three games in.

LINE 4 Joakim Nygard-Markus Granlund-Alex Chiasson played 5:52 together, 5-7 Corsi, 4-2 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC.

Joakim Nygard played an aggressive game, had a shot and a takeaway. His speed is wasted on a depth line. Markus Granlund had two shots, a HDSC and won three of four faceoffs. Alex Chiasson had a shot, a couple of looks and a blocked shot. He did spend time with McDavid and showed well in a depth role.

OILERS 19-20

PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear spent 16:30 together, going 16-21 Corsi, 13-10 shots, no goals and 6-5 HDSC. Nurse spent 8:15 with McDavid, just over seven minutes against Kane.

Darnell Nurse had two shots, a giveaway, drew a penalty, took a penalty, blocked a shot. His coach loves him and man does he make opponents pay. Ethan Bear had a tough night with the skilled Hawks, including Kane and DeBrincat. That play where the defenseman can’t let the winger drive to the net off the wing is played out dozens of times a week, Bear didn’t get caught but he did give up the lane. He remains a refreshing outlet passer.

PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Joel Persson played 11:40 together, going 8-14 Corsi, 2-9 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-3 HDSC. Klefbom spent 8:15 with McDavid, 2:19 against Kane.

Oscar Klefbom had one shot and two blocked shots, this pairing was under fire despite playing with 97 and not playing against the Kane trio. Joined McDavid and Draisaitl in looking a little tired at the end of a road trip. Joel Persson struggled, had a giveaway and got run over a couple of times. I think there’s a hitch in his giddyup when it comes to recognizing danger. How quickly he can adjust will dictate usage. I’d stay the course.

PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 9:51, going 9-9 Corsi, 7-5 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-1 HDSC.

Kris Russell is his usual self, played a little RH side and showed he is better on the left. Matt Benning played well enough to grab more time that never came. I think Tippett should give some of the Nurse minutes to this pair.

GOALIE Mike Smith was the team’s best player, stopping 32 of 34, .941. Stopped 8 of 9 HDSCs and the Oilers wasted a strong goaltending performance. He played the second goal strangely.

CONDORS GAME TODAY

Bakersfield is in action tonight, Kailer Yamamoto is announcing his presence with authority in California. The skill lines are populated currently with Zack Kassian and Tomas Jurco, and Yamamoto is one of the men who could put pressure on one or both all season long. Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody are off to good starts, and the defensive pairings are still figuring themselves out. Sounds like Shane Starrett will be out for a time, look for Stuart Skinner tonight and yesterday’s recall Dylan Wells to get increased time. Would you like a GDT for tonight’s game?

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we start a short week with Jonathan Willis from The Athletic. Oilers first loss, possible lineup changes, can James Neal score 109 goals this season? Dom Luszczyszyn has an excellent article at The Athletic on the Oilers chances (link above) and he’ll join us shortly after 11 to discuss. Then, Corey Graham and Andrew Peard stop by the studio to talk about a strong weekend for the Oil Kings. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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244 Responses to "Shy Town"

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  1. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    19/20
    EDM Goal Share after 6 games (5-1-0)

    Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
    McDavid On Ice 7-5 (58%)
    McDavid Off Ice 6-8 (43%)
    Net EV = 0

    Sp. Teams (PP+SH For–PK+SH Against)
    8-2
    Net ST +6

    Empty Net
    1-1
    Net EN = 0

    SO & PS
    1-0
    SO & PS +1

    Net Goal Differential +7

  2. leadfarmer says:

    If you are an Oilers forward prospect you must see that 3rd line is open for your taking in the future.
    I think Yamamoto develops into an Arvidsson lite player and hopefully next season we can get him putting up some numbers on the third line

  3. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    If you are an Oilers forward prospect you must see that 3rd line is open for your taking in the future.
    I think Yamamoto develops into an Arvidsson lite player and hopefully next season we can get him putting up some numbers on the third line

    I suspect Kassian ends up on the third line and Yamamoto lands with Nuge (Neal to the McDavid trio.

  4. OmJo says:

    Well, so much for going 82-0-0 this season. Sigh.

    A 5-1-0 start with only two players in your bottom 6 (which includes 9 players) getting points is both impressive and terrifying.

  5. BONE207 says:

    OmJo:
    Well, so much for going 82-0-0 this season. Sigh.

    A 5-1-0 start with only two players in your bottom 6 (which includes 9 players) getting points is both impressive and terrifying.

    I can live with 60-22. It’s like walking a tightrope on one leg. I hope the team doesn’t lose their grip. If they can avoid dropping multiple games in succession, they could eek this out for awhile. Bottom 6 has to step up soon.

  6. Jethro Tull says:

    Refs were in mid-season form last night. Connor’s rush, which went in and was disallowed. The ref states “No goal due to the goalie being run”. Then it’s a penalty, ref. If it’s an accident, it’s a goal.

    Second one that stood out for me, De Haan on Connor. Linesman right there could have nipped that in the bud by calling the roughing straight away. And you can see he knows he screwed up because he’s actually waiting for players to come in – he’s ready. There was no initial penalty called on De Haan, they put Nurse in the box, then De Haan so they think they don’t look stupid.

    Thought Chicago played an Anaheim game against Connor and Leon – lots of border-line picks and holds. Can’t blame them.

    Remedial breakaway training for the big guns, thought the team looked like they were at the end of a tiring road trip. Ideas were there, but the bodies weren’t willing.

  7. Darth Tu says:

    “Would you like a GDT for tonight’s game?”

    The answer is always yes. I’m loving these Condors.

  8. Darth Tu says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Refs were in mid-season form last night.Connor’s rush, which went in and was disallowed.The ref states “No goal due to the goalie being run”.Then it’s a penalty, ref.If it’s an accident, it’s a goal.

    Second one that stood out for me, De Haan on Connor.Linesman right there could have nipped that in the bud by calling the roughing straight away.And you can see he knows he screwed up because he’s actually waiting for players to come in – he’s ready.There was no initial penalty called on De Haan, they put Nurse in the box, then De Haan so they think they don’t look stupid.

    Thought Chicago played an Anaheim game against Connor and Leon – lots of border-line picks and holds.Can’t blame them.

    Remedial breakaway training for the big guns, thought the team looked like they were at the end of a tiring road trip.Ideas were there, but the bodies weren’t willing.

    I had the same thought on the tiredness. It wasn’t that the big guns were trying too hard, they were just trying things that had worked in the previous 5 games and those things weren’t clicking last night.

    Crawford had a decent game as well, saving the ones he had to.

  9. russ99 says:

    Persson had a bit of a rude awakening game yesterday, Bear had some missteps too.

    Rookie blue just takes time, they can learn from this.

  10. PinkSocks says:

    I don’t believe Persson is an NHL D. Saad made him look silly walking him in the 2nd, and on the second goal he was extremely slow to react. Not to mention getting run a few times, he appears very hesitant in everything he does. The only reason he isn’t getting completely caved is he has dreamy right next to him all game long. I see Persson and I see Phillip Larsen. Enough offensive acumen to bounce around, but I just don’t see him being anything more than a number 7 or 8 D.

  11. Clarkenstein says:

    The Hawks were flying. The second period wasn’t pretty but Oil still had so many chances and couldn’t hit the damn net. Not sure why Tippett allowed it to be a run and gun game on the last of a road trip. Should have locked things down a bit more IMO.

  12. McNuge93 says:

    russ99:
    Persson had a bit of a rude awakening game yesterday, Bear had some missteps too.

    Rookie blue just takes time, they can learn from this.

    Yes, but its too bad about the Larsson injury. We could sit out Bear or Persson the odd game so they could reset but unfortunately we’ll have to play them a lot for the next few weeks.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Here’s something relatively interesting.

    Here is EDM’s 5v5 goal share last year with 97, 93 and 29 on the ice.

    29’s time with either 97 or 93 will be lumped into their time. 29’s GF% is only his time away from both.

    18/19
    97 – 51% (77-75)
    93 – 44% (29-37)
    29 – 40% (14-21)
    None of 29, 97, 93 on ice 37% (26-45)

    Now this year:
    97 – 58% (7-5)
    93 – 67% (4-2)
    29 – 0% (0-2)
    None of 29, 93, 97 on ice 14% (1-6)

    The improvement 5v5 is all in the top 2 lines.

    The bottom six is much worse so far.

    Very small sample so hopefully it rises, but “Ken fixed the bottom 6” doesn’t hold water yet.

  14. J-Bo says:

    LT, I have to commend you on the new format this season after games. I really enjoy both the aesthetics and the content of your post game blog posts. Nice work!

  15. leadfarmer says:

    McNuge93: Yes, but its too bad about the Larsson injury. We could sit out Bear or Persson the odd game so they could reset but unfortunately we’ll have to play them a lot for the next few weeks.

    I don’t think anyone would object when we do get healthy to rotate the D and give Persson and Bear time off to get used to the grind.

  16. GP Oiler Fan says:

    LT, Id love a GD blog on the Condors game for tonight!

  17. dustrock says:

    What exactly is Jujar Khaira bringing to this team?

  18. JimmyV1965 says:

    I thought Bear looked tired. The only reason I say that is the few times I saw him on the bench. The NHL is a grind.

    Persson doesn’t have the tools to play top four I believe, but Klef floats all boats right now. Nurse continues to impress. The building blocks are there for a good defence though.

    We really need Larsson back. Playing Bear two of three games would be an ideal way to ease him into the lineup. In the Buffalo game against Florida, Kruger sat young guys like Olafsson and Dahlin for a good chunk of the third period. He said he did it because they were tired.

    I think Kassian is bleeding opportunities on the first line. He’s missing too many set ups, missing on his passes, getting in the way occasionally and not finishing.

    The second line could be very effective with another winger who could help drive play. Jurco looks meh and Neal is more of a straight up finisher.

  19. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Kevin Fiala scratched in Minnesota.

    2 years @ 3M. Would be an awesome fit IMO.

    Pulju calling?

  20. JJS says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    I was just posting the same thing!!

  21. JimmyV1965 says:

    dustrock:
    What exactly is Jujar Khaira bringing to this team?

    I actually like the way he drives play in the ozone. I think he’s much better along the boards and behind the net than someone like Neal. I also like his ability to protect the puck. He can’t piss a drop offensively though and that’s a massive caveat. No one on that line appears to have any finishing skill.

  22. JJS says:

    The game last night showed us what we already know – we aren’t going to win many games that require heavy lifting, bottom six scoring and attention to detail

    This team will win primarily finesse and high skill games

    When Drais and McD appear tired and a little disinterested (last night) or the puck is hopping like crazy (last night and in NY), we are going to struggle

  23. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The bottom six is much worse so far.

    Oh, I see.

    You believe Chia is a better GM than Holland as well it seems.

    *goes back to the dumpster, picks up pitch fork and torch*

  24. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Oilers didn’t play great last night.

    Both McDavid and Drai were off with their hands (Drai with numerous passes picked off and McDavid still bobbling pucks).

    The bottom six, for the first time this year, at least to my eye, wasn’t able to keep and/or build momentum but were getting caved. It’ll happen and I do expect some changes for Wed (P. Russell back in for sure I would think).

    Smith was excellent but, at the same time, the 2nd goal, a back-breaker, was largely on him. Yes, there were mistakes that led to it by other but Smith started to come out to play the puck and when reverting to the net wasn’t able to set – it was a bad goal on Smith.

    At the same time, the Oilers had MANY chances – 3 clear breakaways (two by their stars), a cross-bard and a couple other great saves by Crawford.

    No breaks/luck or finish last night – they could have won the game.

    Oh well, 10/12 points is great.

    Now, lets get back at er’ and grind out a win against Philly.

  25. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ll almost definitely be watching the Condors game and commenting on it. Indifferent if I do it in this thread or in a separate thread.

    Listening to Woody at the gym today (on ON yesterday) and he flat out said: “Kailer Yamamoto has been our best player” – he’s generally fairly commending of his team publicly but it was a glowing review of his play all season and in camp.

  26. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s something relatively interesting.

    Here is EDM’s 5v5 goal share last year with 97, 93 and 29 on the ice.

    29’s time with either 97 or 93 will be lumped into their time.29’s GF% is only his time away from both.

    18/19
    97 – 51%(77-75)
    93 – 44% (29-37)
    29 – 40% (14-21)
    None of 29, 97, 93 on ice 37% (26-45)

    Now this year:
    97 – 58% (7-5)
    93 – 67% (4-2)
    29 – 0% (0-2)
    None of 29, 93, 97 on ice 14% (1-6)

    The improvement 5v5 is all in the top 2 lines.

    The bottom six is much worse so far.

    Very small sample so hopefully it rises, but “Ken fixed the bottom 6” doesn’t hold water yet.

    Yeah, it’s a bottomless six. One goal is 6 games.

  27. Jethro Tull says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Kevin Fiala scratched in Minnesota.

    2 years @ 3M. Would be an awesome fit IMO.

    Pulju calling?

    Not sure we have cap room. I suspect until there is, any trade would be money for money, other money leaving or draft picks.

  28. Darth Tu says:

    Jethro Tull: Not sure we have cap room.I suspect until there is, any trade would be money for money, other money leaving or draft picks.

    Is it time to sell high on Neil?

  29. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s something relatively interesting.

    Here is EDM’s 5v5 goal share last year with 97, 93 and 29 on the ice.

    29’s time with either 97 or 93 will be lumped into their time.29’s GF% is only his time away from both.

    18/19
    97 – 51%(77-75)
    93 – 44% (29-37)
    29 – 40% (14-21)
    None of 29, 97, 93 on ice 37% (26-45)

    Now this year:
    97 – 58% (7-5)
    93 – 67% (4-2)
    29 – 0% (0-2)
    None of 29, 93, 97 on ice 14% (1-6)

    The improvement 5v5 is all in the top 2 lines.

    The bottom six is much worse so far.

    Very small sample so hopefully it rises, but “Ken fixed the bottom 6” doesn’t hold water yet.

    Biggest change is that we are not getting scored on as much at the upper end.

    Looking at the GA/60 with McDavid and Koskinen from last year and I saw it was 3.71 GA/60 in 792 minutes GF% of 48%
    McDavid with Talbot was 2.51 GA/60 in 501 minutes GF% of 57%
    RNH with Koskinen was 3.01 GA/60 in 698 minutes GF% of 46%
    RNH with Talbot was 2.65 GA/60 in 408 minutes GF% of 49%

    This year
    McDavid has a GA/60 of 2.9 and a GF% of 58%
    RNH has a GA/60 of 1.55 and a GF% of 67%

    I wonder if last year, not only did Koskinen get tired in the latter half, but did the big guns get tired out as well? They scored well all year, but the GA/60 sure climbed over the year.

    Tippet is just like Hitch and Todd and seems to be riding Drai and McDavid hard for offense. I dont really blame him, but I think it comes at a cost eventually.

  30. Jethro Tull says:

    Darth Tu: Is it time to sell high on Neil?

    Sorry mate, sarcasm detector broken!

  31. leadfarmer says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Kevin Fiala scratched in Minnesota.

    2 years @ 3M. Would be an awesome fit IMO.

    Pulju calling?

    That Granlund for Fiala trade was horrendous the day it was made and it only has gotten worse
    They would have to take Ganjay back.

    But I would let JP spend the season in Europe. He seems happy and there is no reason to make a decision this year

  32. Jethro Tull says:

    frjohnk: Tippet is just like Hitch and Todd and seems to be riding Drai and McDavid hard for offense. I dont really blame him, but I think it comes at a cost eventually.

    I’ve commented on this before – I believe all three has good intentions not to play the hell out of them, but once the reality of their rosters sinks in, they can’t help it. It’s literally the only thing they can do. The lower six lose their goal share, then the top guys have to not only win theirs, but make up the others as well.

  33. Reja says:

    Darth Tu: Is it time to sell high on Neil?

    Calgary needs a top 6 scoring winger.

  34. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk,

    Everyone called Todd an idiot for riding the big guns and the two guys since have only rode them harder. I know the pressure to win is on but this is not sustainable

  35. giddy says:

    Not to toot my own horn but the previous non-game day thread I posted this:

    giddy:
    Also, last game was Persson’s best game and he looked good, but frankly I wasn’t wholly impressed in the other three. Not unimpressed, mind you (I like the player, love the story!), but far from penciling him into any permanent roster position.

    My thoughts sustain. Last night was a tough showing for Persson (is there anything worse than getting laid out by Andrew Shaw?), but also not going to call him a Philip Larsen based off a five game performance.

    Got to give it to the Hawks, they played like hell, like a team that was 0-2-1 to start the season and badly needed a W. Crawford played a fantastic night too.

  36. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Oh, I see.

    You believe Chia is a better GM than Holland as well it seems.

    *goes back to the dumpster, picks up pitch fork and torch*

    Don’t make me come over there Padre!!

  37. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Jethro Tull: Not sure we have cap room.I suspect until there is, any trade would be money for money, other money leaving or draft picks.

    JP+Chiasson for Fiala?

    Would be tight

  38. Jethro Tull says:

    giddy,

    Hawks did their homework and knew who to pick on.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Yaroslov Lokomotiv lost 2-1 today.

    Konovalov stopped 19 of 21 (.905).

  40. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan: Yeah, it’s a bottomless six. One goal is 6 games.

    They did get one 4v4 goals (Nygard from Haas I think)

    I only did 5v5, but yeah, it’s not good.

  41. Jethro Tull says:

    LadiesloveSmid: JP+Chiasson for Fiala?

    Would be tight

    Oh, all day, but I suspect this is a temporary thing – he’ll make their line-up again.

  42. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    frjohnk: Biggest change is that we are not getting scored on as much at the upper end.

    Looking at the GA/60 with McDavid andKoskinen from last year and I sawit was 3.71 GA/60 in 792 minutes GF% of 48%
    McDavid with Talbot was 2.51 GA/60 in 501 minutes GF% of 57%
    RNHwith Koskinen was 3.01 GA/60 in 698 minutes GF% of 46%
    RNH with Talbot was 2.65 GA/60 in 408 minutes GF% of 49%

    This year
    McDavid has a GA/60 of 2.9 and a GF% of 58%
    RNH has a GA/60 of 1.55 and a GF% of 67%

    I wonder if last year, not only did Koskinen get tired in the latter half, but did the big guns get tired out as well?They scored well all year, but the GA/60 sure climbed over the year.

    Tippet is just like Hitch and Todd and seems to be riding Drai and McDavid hard for offense.I dont really blame him, but I think it comes at a cost eventually.

    Not at a desk top right now, but if you include Larsson in those WOWYs it will blow your mind.

  43. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Not at a desk top right now, but if you include Larsson in those WOWYs it will blow your mind.

    I wouldn’t mind seeing the numbers with a league average bottom six.

  44. giddy says:

    I like Kassian on the top line, but I almost want to have him play some minutes in the bottom six just to give them some jump. Anything to get those guys kickstarted. Lets not kid ourselves that having two points between all of those bottom six guys isn’t getting into their heads. No wonder Tippet threw McDavid out there with Chiasson and Nygard.

  45. Wilde says:

    Bottom sixes work better when they don’t fucking exist

  46. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Very small sample so hopefully it rises, but “Ken fixed the bottom 6” doesn’t hold water yet.

    Some of us have been saying this all summer.

  47. Darth Tu says:

    Jethro Tull: Sorry mate, sarcasm detector broken!

    Sorry – couldn’t resist.

  48. Darth Tu says:

    Reja: Calgary needs a top 6 scoring winger.

    Seriously, long may the Neil run continue. I want 20 goals at least for the year.

  49. Jethro Tull says:

    Darth Tu: Sorry – couldn’t resist.

    I know, it’s definitely worth reminding Flames fans of!

  50. Jethro Tull says:

    Wilde:
    Bottom sixes work better when they don’t fucking exist

    They didn’t for nearly half the game last night.

  51. Sierra says:

    giddy,

    Is Kassian in the bottom six really going to change anything?

  52. Jethro Tull says:

    One thing I sincerely hope is that there isn’t the same disconnect between Dave and Ken as there was between Pete and Todd.

    I hope Ken noticed Dave benching some of his guys last night and running the franchise with a distant bell and the guy he used the Sekera money on. And I hope he tests and adjusts.

  53. Pouzar says:

    So Persson no good and Kassian off the top line.

    We sure are a fickle bunch.

  54. Pouzar says:

    Not trying to be snarky here but our bottom six was never going to outscore anyone 5v5. The numbers are all there. This shouldn’t be a surprise. At least they (Archie/Sheahan/Khaira/Granlund) are contributing to a real good PK. What I didn’t count was this bottom 6 being worse than last years group 5v5.

  55. geowal says:

    leadfarmer: I don’t think anyone would object when we do get healthy to rotate the D and give Persson and Bear time off to get used to the grind.

    Lol, if we look back at the comments 2-4 days ago we could probably find some folks wanting Larsson benched while we sort him out off the trade block.

  56. Jethro Tull says:

    Pouzar:
    So Persson no good and Kassian off the top line.

    We sure are a fickle bunch.

    My takeaway was Persson can get exposed by teams targeting him, no shame there and some wonder about putting Kass down the order to get the bottom six better, not as a reflection of his performance up the line up.

    For what it’s worth, I believe it’s this thinking that held him back for some time – he’s too damn useful down there because he’s an actual NHL player.

  57. Pouzar says:

    Jethro Tull: some wonder about putting Kass down the order to get the bottom six better, not as a reflection of his performance up the line up.

    I’ve seen enough of Kassian to know he complements high end skill a helluva lot better than he drives lower skilled lines. Some here may disagree but I don’t think moving Kassian down is the answer. He was buried down there last year and became trade fodder at one point.

    Persson? I think he’s been good.

  58. PinkSocks says:

    Pouzar:
    So Persson no good and Kassian off the top line.

    We sure are a fickle bunch.

    Granlund is poo too

  59. Cassandra says:

    Wilde:
    Bottom sixes work better when they don’t fucking exist

    Exactly. It is a useless term that diminishes our understanding of the game and leads to poor roster construction.

    A sub-replacement level term.

  60. knighttown says:

    A few observations;

    1. I thought Persson might earn the dreaded “1” from Bruce over at Cult of Hockey but he received a generous 3. If this was a North American trained defenseman I’d be willing to write off this entire experiment. Honestly, this is as bad a game as I’ve seen an Oiler prospect play since Alex Plante who I could tell by the end of period 1, would never play in the NHL. Because he’s new here he deserves some time to transition to North American hockey but it should NOT be in the NHL and most certainly not on the second pairing. He was legit terrible and worst of all looked terrified. Run over a few times. Completely walked a couple times and also threw a few blind passes to nowhere just to get it off his stick. Promote Benning to 2RD and Persson some time in the AHL before he’s a complete crater. Jones or Lagesson should get a shot.

    2. Khaira and Nurse need to understand risk benefit better if they’re going to play on a checking line/shutdown pairing. If you’re up against Barcley Goodrow by all means, take some chances but if you’re hard matched with Kane and DeBrincat you’ve got to play safer. Jujhar seems happy to trade chances and Nurse was trying to do so much that he was leaving Bear on an island. Saying that, I’ve been a critic of Nurse but he’s been terrific. He’s already prime-Erik Johnson.

    3. Once again we had zero goals against that were “earned” by the other team creating a scoring chance. Both were complete fuck-ups. I’m not sure that’s good or bad but we seem to be a few mental mistakes from playing pretty tidy defensive hockey.

    4. On the Kane goal I’m quite confused about who is at fault. The hawks used a standard faceoff alignment with Kane set back 5 feet but it was nothing tricky. There was no overload. Generally in these situations, the winger is the responsibility of the defenseman, in this case Russell. Archie would be the runner, taking off behind the centre to get to the defense or out of the zone for a breakout. Khaira either heads to the other point or to the wall for a rim pass depending on if we win or lose the draw. Russell would either jump to Kane or release behind the net for a partner pass. It appears as though he released to go behind the net but if so, that’s a terrible read. Kane is so open that I can promise someone got lit up in meetings today and I’d wager it was Russell.

    5. The Nylander goal was Smith’s 3rd freebie this year. He seems to be able to stop pucks but you’ll sink you’re save percentage pretty quickly if you keep leaving empty nets.

    6. Crawford looked awful good with the blocker last night. When he’s healthy, he can play.

  61. Oilman99 says:

    Lowetide: I suspect Kassian ends up on the third line and Yamamoto lands with Nuge (Neal to the McDavid trio.

    Yamamoto needs to spend more than two or three games in the AHL before rushing him up to the big club, he has not had an impact during his past stints. Kassian’ s play on the big line so far has been solid, there is no way he should be sent to the third line. Not sure Neal is fast enough to play on the McDavid line.

  62. OriginalPouzar says:

    Shit, didn’t realize until just now that Karpat and Skelfeeta are playing in Champtions League.

    Its 3-3 after 2 periods.

    Jesse has a goal and an assist.

    Broberg with a shot in over 10 min of ice (even rating)

    Berglund plus 1.

    Third period can be streamed:

    https://www.championshockeyleague.com/en/matches/dc906d9de08b795e2b74148d/karpat-oulu-vs-skelleftea-aik#tab_event-stats=player-statistics&tab_event=live-stream

  63. knighttown says:

    Jethro Tull:
    Refs were in mid-season form last night.Connor’s rush, which went in and was disallowed.The ref states “No goal due to the goalie being run”.Then it’s a penalty, ref.If it’s an accident, it’s a goal.

    Second one that stood out for me, De Haan on Connor.Linesman right there could have nipped that in the bud by calling the roughing straight away.And you can see he knows he screwed up because he’s actually waiting for players to come in – he’s ready.There was no initial penalty called on De Haan, they put Nurse in the box, then De Haan so they think they don’t look stupid.

    Thought Chicago played an Anaheim game against Connor and Leon – lots of border-line picks and holds.Can’t blame them.

    Remedial breakaway training for the big guns, thought the team looked like they were at the end of a tiring road trip.Ideas were there, but the bodies weren’t willing.

    I don’t think I agree with much of this. A play can absolutely be neither a goal nor a penalty and this was the perfect example. He skated in got off the shot which was cleanly saved and then barrelled into the goalie and the puck and knocked it in. 100% the right call.

    I also didn’t think the refs did anything wrong with the deHaan play. I saw Connor get hit and then purposefully whacked deHaan with his stick in an effort to mix it up. He’s getting that bit of Crosby in him where he’s protected so he’ll stick you a bit and I really like it. You could see in the past he was being coached to just ignore it and skate away but I think someone is in his ear (Tippett?) telling him to embrace the hatred. Obviously the Doughty game sticks out but even in game 1 I saw him far more demonstrative about missed calls and you know what? It’s working.

    Where I 100% agree is that we’ve got a real problem now with players skating in front of 97 all the way up the ice when he doesn’t have the puck. It’s not interference per se because they are entitled to their ice but he keeps getting blocked and it’s knocking him off stride. No one in the NHL gets covered 150 feet from the net like Connor McDavid does.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Shit, didn’t realize until just now that Karpat and Skelfeeta are playing in Champtions League.

    Its 3-3 after 2 periods.

    Jesse has a goal and an assist.

    Broberg with a shot in over 10 min of ice (even rating)

    Berglund plus 1.

    Here is the goal, a good one – snuck down from the blue line in to the open area and one-timed it home – not a muffin either.

    https://twitter.com/urheilucom/status/1184157542722785280

  65. dustrock says:

    knighttown:
    A few observations;

    1.I thought Persson might earn the dreaded “1” from Bruce over at Cult of Hockey but he received a generous 3.If this was a North American trained defenseman I’d be willing to write off this entire experiment.Honestly, this is as bad a game as I’ve seen an Oiler prospect play since Alex Plante who I could tell by the end of period 1, would never play in the NHL.Because he’s new here he deserves some time to transition to North American hockey but it should NOT be in the NHL and most certainly not on the second pairing.He was legit terrible and worst of all looked terrified.Run over a few times.Completely walked a couple times and also threw a few blind passes to nowhere just to get it off his stick.Promote Benning to 2RD and Persson some time in the AHL before he’s a complete crater.Jones or Lagesson should get a shot.

    There’s just less space and time in the North American game. I’m willing to give Persson 20 games to figure it out, but so far Bear seems superior to me in terms of offensive ability and transition play.

  66. v4ance says:

    EvolvingWild @EvolvingWild

    Yeah, so it looks like there is something very different about how the NHL is recording event location coordinates this season… and, umm, it’s not great.

    Looking at some video, I noticed a weird trend in the distances of events – they were all recorded several feet further away from the net than in the past. In addition, xG values this year are down across the board. This Mantha goal was recorded 6ft from the net, 37% xG:

    This Johansen goal was recorded 9 ft from the net, 35.5% xG. These were the two highest xG events this season. We updated our model, which meant much lower xG values overall, but we were expecting a ceiling of ~70%, not 40%.

    Given this, I looked at the distributions of both calculated distances (based on coordinates) and the actual RTSS-recorded distance over the last 2 season. It appears shots have shifted further away from net (through the same point in both seasons). This is calculated distance:

    And if we look at the actual locations of Fenwick shots on the rink within 30 feet, it’s clear they’ve moved further away as well:

    What this means is that any model trained/built using RTSS shot coordinates/distance/angle from prior years is going to be off this year. So all public xG models *right now* are significantly *understated*. If you’ve noticed that goal scoring is way above xG, this is the reason.

    We’re currently looking into how we could possibly get around this, but unless the NHL recalibrates their tracking system, it will not be ideal. We could likely “shift” the distribution manually, and possibly re-distribute coordinates/angles, but that’s scary stuff.

    So yeah, to end this, the coordinates are different. It’s not entirely clear why this changed all of sudden this season when every other prior season has been the same. This is not good for public analysts, journalists, and fans. Pretty big hit.

    ***

    Additional addendum: here are all fenwick shots through game 20077 from this season and the prior 2 seasons – coordinates have been flipped for visualization. It appears the locations this year are compressed towards center ice, but the blue line coordinates are still in line.

    To us, this seems to confirm that the NHL is now likely recording the location of the jersey/player and not the actual shot location/where the puck left the stick. This is a huge loss as that is *very important* piece of information. Time to have a beer and take a break.

    Aavco Cup @AavcoCup

    Replying to
    @EvolvingWild
    Just watcing the highlights from the Hawks Oilers game and it looks like the first goal is recorded reasonably close to location. But the other goals including the empty net goal (only 1 ft from goal line) are all at least 3 ft further away from where the shots were taken

  67. Profit says:

    dustrock,

    I’m also of the mindset to let Persson have another 10+ games to see if he can figure it out. I think the worst case would be to send him down, recall Jones (when he’s barely played any games in BAK) and then have both of them suffer from the whipsaw effect of going up/down.

    He’s got some rope left, but it’s getting shorter. His play yesterday wasn’t NHL replacement level calibre imo.

  68. Oilman99 says:

    leadfarmer:
    If you are an Oilers forward prospect you must see that 3rd line is open for your taking in the future.
    I think Yamamoto develops into an Arvidsson lite player and hopefully next season we can get him putting up some numbers on the third line

    Yamamoto is too fragile to be an Arvidsson type player.

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    I know Puljujarvi’s stats don’t “jump off the page” but every time I watch him play (mostly the CHL games), he really is the driver of Karpat’s offence and he’s doing it in the third period – driving the net with authority and creating chances for himself (and others).

    If interested NHL teams are scouting him in Europe, his value will be raised more by watching him than merely looking at the numbers.

  70. who says:

    knighttown:
    A few observations;

    1.I thought Persson might earn the dreaded “1” from Bruce over at Cult of Hockey but he received a generous 3.If this was a North American trained defenseman I’d be willing to write off this entire experiment.Honestly, this is as bad a game as I’ve seen an Oiler prospect play since Alex Plante who I could tell by the end of period 1, would never play in the NHL.Because he’s new here he deserves some time to transition to North American hockey but it should NOT be in the NHL and most certainly not on the second pairing.He was legit terrible and worst of all looked terrified.Run over a few times.Completely walked a couple times and also threw a few blind passes to nowhere just to get it off his stick.Promote Benning to 2RD and Persson some time in the AHL before he’s a complete crater.Jones or Lagesson should get a shot.

    2.Khaira and Nurse need to understand risk benefit better if they’re going to play on a checking line/shutdown pairing.If you’re up against Barcley Goodrow by all means, take some chances but if you’re hard matched with Kane and DeBrincat you’ve got to play safer.Jujhar seems happy to trade chances and Nurse was trying to do so much that he was leaving Bear on an island.Saying that, I’ve been a critic of Nurse but he’s been terrific.He’s already prime-Erik Johnson.

    3. Once again we had zero goals against that were “earned” by the other team creating a scoring chance.Both were complete fuck-ups.I’m not sure that’s good or bad but we seem to be a few mental mistakes from playing pretty tidy defensive hockey.

    4. On the Kane goal I’m quite confused about who is at fault.The hawks used a standard faceoff alignment with Kane set back 5 feet but it was nothing tricky.There was no overload.Generally in these situations, the winger is the responsibility of the defenseman, in this case Russell.Archie would be the runner, taking off behind the centre to get to the defense or out of the zone for a breakout.Khaira either heads to the other point or to the wall for a rim pass depending on if we win or lose the draw. Russell would either jump to Kane or release behind the net for a partner pass.It appears as though he released to go behind the net but if so, that’s a terrible read.Kane is so open that I can promise someone got lit up in meetings today and I’d wager it was Russell.

    5. The Nylander goal was Smith’s 3rd freebie this year.He seems to be able to stop pucks but you’ll sink you’re save percentage pretty quickly if you keep leaving empty nets.

    6. Crawford looked awful good with the blocker last night.When he’s healthy, he can play.

    The first goal.
    I’d have to watch it again, but the first player to touch the puck, after the centers, was Benning.
    Shaw knocked it off his stick, it slid back towards the dot, and Strome may have swept it back to Kane. It was a broken play. I really can’t fault anyones coverage on the goal.
    Russell may have cheated towards the goal line because he thought Benning was going to get possession.

  71. OriginalPouzar says:

    Decent vision by Jesse on his assist as well:

    https://twitter.com/HeresYourReplay/status/1184142174172209153

  72. Yeti says:

    Profit: He’s got some rope left, but it’s getting shorter. His play yesterday wasn’t NHL replacement level calibre imo.

    You seem curiously hesitant to give Persson a night off and run the obvious third pairing of Manning – Russell.

  73. Reja says:

    We are 5-1 Mcdavid and Leon 1-2 in scoring Kassian playing great on the line laying out body checks and opening up ice for is linemates. He’s not taking any bad penalties and he goes to the net hard, works the corners with zeal. Sure he’s no John Leclair he only has 3 goals in 6 games. All it took was one loss for the Nancy’s to come out of hibernation.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    So, there is talk about Jesse’s English not improving playing for Karpat this year.

    Its interesting to note that, during a “TV timeout”, the video and audio were on the Karpat bench and the coach was giving instructions in English……

    FYI, Jesse has created 3 grade A chances in 12 minutes in the third – two with powerful skating.

  75. OriginalPouzar says:

    Whoa, Jesse with an dangerous pass to the middle on the PP which is turned the other way for a breakaway and the d-man for Karpat takes the player down – penalty shot. Save.

    Not good game management by Jesse up 4-3 late in the third.

    A bad play by Jesse in a pretty damn good performance (from what I’ve seen).

  76. v4ance says:

    v4ance:
    EvolvingWild @EvolvingWild

    Yeah, so it looks like there is something very different about how the NHL is recording event location coordinates this season… and, umm, it’s not great.


    Looking at some video, I noticed a weird trend in the distances of events – they were all recorded several feet further away from the net than in the past. In addition, xG values this year are down across the board. This Mantha goal was recorded 6ft from the net, 37% xG:

    This Johansen goal was recorded 9 ft from the net, 35.5% xG. These were the two highest xG events this season. We updated our model, which meant much lower xG values overall, but we were expecting a ceiling of ~70%, not 40%.

    Given this, I looked at the distributions of both calculated distances (based on coordinates) and the actual RTSS-recorded distance over the last 2 season. It appears shots have shifted further away from net (through the same point in both seasons). This is calculated distance:

    And if we look at the actual locations of Fenwick shots on the rink within 30 feet, it’s clear they’ve moved further away as well:

    What this means is that any model trained/built using RTSS shot coordinates/distance/angle from prior years is going to be off this year. So all public xG models *right now* are significantly *understated*. If you’ve noticed that goal scoring is way above xG, this is the reason.

    We’re currently looking into how we could possibly get around this, but unless the NHL recalibrates their tracking system, it will not be ideal. We could likely “shift” the distribution manually, and possibly re-distribute coordinates/angles, but that’s scary stuff.

    So yeah, to end this, the coordinates are different. It’s not entirely clear why this changed all of sudden this season when every other prior season has been the same. This is not good for public analysts, journalists, and fans. Pretty big hit.

    ***

    Additional addendum: here are all fenwick shots through game 20077 from this season and the prior 2 seasons – coordinates have been flipped for visualization. It appears the locations this year are compressed towards center ice, but the blue line coordinates are still in line.

    To us, this seems to confirm that the NHL is now likely recording the location of the jersey/player and not the actual shot location/where the puck left the stick. This is a huge loss as that is *very important* piece of information. Time to have a beer and take a break.

    Aavco Cup @AavcoCup

    Replying to
    @EvolvingWild
    Just watcing the highlights from the Hawks Oilers game and it looks like the first goal is recorded reasonably close to location. But the other goals including the empty net goal (only 1 ft from goal line) are all at least 3 ft further away from where the shots were taken

    EvolvingWild @EvolvingWild 2m

    Just to clarify: after looking at this more and additional work from others (@IneffectiveMath, @NatStatTrick),

    it doesn’t immediately seem like this explains what we’re seeing. So our next best guess is that there is a difference in the software/UI that is being used.

  77. Jordan says:

    The Oilers PDO regressed some last game, and that was expected.

    Pucks don’t always go in, but the best players were still generating good chances – I think the clutch and grab, picks,and crappy ice all played a factor in the loss.

    Kassian has been good and played well there last game – no one finished well. Not time to dump him to the 4th line. He’s great on that line in his role.

    Persson didn’t look good on the GAs, but did have some nice sequences transitioning the puck. I’d look at sitting him if he’s looking tired, but wouldn’t be too concerned if he’s loosing some of the 1-on-1 battles due to size-strength issues – that’s not his strength and we shouldn’t expect greyhound to be a plough horse. Issue isn’t the player there – it’s your expectations.

    Looking forwards to seeing Koski back in net against Philly and Wings.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Weak play by Jesse on an OT 2 on 1.

  79. OriginalPouzar says:

    Broberg with a 3 on 3 OT shift – a Broberg rush stifled by Puljujarvi…..

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    As I’ve said for eons, the big ice negates offence – this OT is less exciting than any NHL OT you’ll see.

  81. Material Elvis says:

    What’s up with the anger vis-a-vis using the term ‘bottom six’? For me, it is an obvious reference to 5v5 ice time allocation. Every team has a top 6 and bottom 6 based on that. Even if our bottom 6 scored at a higher rate, they would still be bottom 6 players. Same as defense pairings.

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jesse the 5th shooter for Karpat, loses and edge and falls as he tries to make a move……

    Broberg with a chance to win it for Skelfeeta (5th shooter I think) – can’t score but at least he didn’t fall.

  83. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I know Puljujarvi’s stats don’t “jump off the page” but every time I watch him play (mostly the CHL games), he really is the driver of Karpat’s offence and he’s doing it in the third period – driving the net with authority and creating chances for himself (and others).

    If interested NHL teams are scouting him in Europe, his value will be raised more by watching him than merely looking at the numbers.

    The numbers weren’t half bad today though.

    1 goal
    2 points
    9 shots on goal
    14 shot attempts
    23:01 TOI
    60.00 CF%

  84. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Jesse the 5th shooter for Karpat, loses and edge and falls as he tries to make a move……

    Broberg with a chance to win it for Skelfeeta (5th shooter I think) – can’t score but at least he didn’t fall.

    I thought it was interesting that Broberg and Jesse went head-to-head in sudden death shootout.

  85. Ryan says:

    Jethro Tull:
    One thing I sincerely hope is that there isn’t the same disconnect between Dave and Ken as there was between Pete and Todd.

    I hope Ken noticed Dave benching some of his guys last night and running the franchise with a distant bell and the guy he used the Sekera money on.And I hope he tests and adjusts.

    The crux of the problem… and I’ve previously argued about this with GeorgeXs… is that none of our bottomless six can produce when they actually play in the bottom six…

    Sure you can double shift McDavid or Draisaitl here or there or bump up a Nygard to play on one of the top two lines here or there, but at some point, you need bottom six players who actually score goals while playing on their own lines.

    That actually includes Kassian who had something like 3 points in the first 40 games last year or Chiasson who only produced playing on the PP or at evens with Draisatl.

  86. Wilde says:

    Jethro Tull: They didn’t for nearly half the game last night.

    I wish that were true

    Cassandra: Exactly.It is a useless term that diminishes our understanding of the game and leads to poor roster construction.

    A sub-replacement level term.

    It’s pretty insane the way they signalled it this summer. Essentially saying that half of the store floor is supposed to be loss-leaders.

    I can report that Yamamoto appears to not even be on any sort of ‘streak’ but this is just who he is at the AHL level alongside decent linemates. He’s gotten/assisted on tons of chances that haven’t gone in the net.

    Just visually and statistically dominant. I’m absolutely in favour of keeping him down, but it’ll be interesting to see how long he goes goal-per-game.

  87. Wilde says:

    Material Elvis:
    What’s up with the anger vis-a-vis using the term ‘bottom six’?For me, it is an obvious reference to 5v5 ice time allocation.Every team has a top 6 and bottom 6 based on that.Even if our bottom 6 scored at a higher rate, they would still be bottom 6 players.Same as defense pairings.

    In its current form it’s a construction that hurts teams’ ability to win. A holdover from before teams overwhelmingly ran power v. power – the minutes available to a bottom six available have gotten easier, but the teams that respond by staffing an effort to score in those minutes are the exception to the rule. It’s a blatant inefficiency that lets some teams play a better 5v5 scoring/developmental games than others at a purely beneficial clip – like MTL with Kotkaniemi’s line in 2018-19.

    e: So I wouldn’t say the anger is directed at anyone here using top six / / bottom six distinctions, seeing as the Oilers absolutely have built their team that way, it’s that the concept itself doesn’t appear to justify its own existence.

  88. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar: I know Puljujarvi’s stats don’t “jump off the page” but every time I watch him play (mostly the CHL games), he really is the driver of Karpat’s offence and he’s doing it in the third period – driving the net with authority and creating chances for himself (and others).

    His possession numbers that I shared yesterday are definitely page-jumpers. Having your team go 62% with you and sub-50% without you while playing 1RW is superstar stuff. Hope he keeps it up.

  89. Munny says:

    v4ance,

    This is so sad. We pretty much have to throw xG and HDSC out the window now till the League gets their shit together.

  90. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Hey LT: I really like the added information your putting up for players. It’s helpful

    – I like as well that you highlighted for a few of the D how much time they played with Conner

    – It would be interesting to understand who is the main 5×5 F’s that each D pair plays with.

    – Playing D behind McD and Drai and getting them the puck, and being in the OF zone most of the time requires a different skill-set than say Russell-Benning, who presumably play most of their minutes with the 3rd/4th lines, requiring a different skill-set.

    – Darnell and Bear would have a lot more scoring chances, but conversely are defending more vs the best of the other team

    – Russell-Benning play with plugs, against plugs: so their relative contribution to scoring chances is different. who gets the Riley-Jar-Josh, or Haas, Nygard, Granlund etc?

    – I would be illuminating to how much the more “offensive” D, playing more with the “bottom-6”, if you follow my drfit.

    – I would try Nurse-Bear with the “bottom-6” more often to try and generate offence, and reason that a Russell-Benning with CmD and Drai would still be good as an example.

  91. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Jesse the 5th shooter for Karpat, loses and edge and falls as he tries to make a move……

    Broberg with a chance to win it for Skelfeeta (5th shooter I think) – can’t score but at least he didn’t fall.

    Pretty much sums up their careers to this point?

    😉

  92. Cassandra says:

    Material Elvis:
    What’s up with the anger vis-a-vis using the term ‘bottom six’?For me, it is an obvious reference to 5v5 ice time allocation.Every team has a top 6 and bottom 6 based on that.Even if our bottom 6 scored at a higher rate, they would still be bottom 6 players.Same as defense pairings.

    It isn’t used to signal ice time, it is used to signal expectations and role, so that so-called skill players (by which they mean players that can score) are left on the outside in favour of lesser skilled “role” players.

    But this is a false dichotomy, since all players have skill and every player has the same job (or role) which is to outscore the other guys. This doesn’t mean that offensive players are necessarily better than so-called defensive players, but it does mean they should be judged according to the same standard. Using the term bottom six as a heuristic gives an excuse not to play “skill” players because that is not their “role.”

    And, as Wilde notes, this is very much sub-optimal roster construction. Marner and Tavares are getting killed in Toronto, but they are still winning games largely because the 3rd and 4th lines have been crushing other teams.

    And all of this is unnecessary. Toronto’s 5th line is better than Edmonton’s 3rd line.

  93. Cassandra says:

    Munny:
    v4ance,

    This is so sad.We pretty much have to throw xG and HDSC out the window now till the League gets their shit together.

    HDSC has always been broken and is unfixable, so this is no different. XG, on the other hand, worked so that is a shame.

  94. OriginalPouzar says:

    BONE: I can live with 60-22. It’s like walking a tightrope on one leg. I hope the team doesn’t lose their grip. If they can avoid dropping multiple games in succession, they could eek this out for awhile. Bottom 6 has to step up soon.

    In 2016/17, when the team lat made the playoffs, they started the season 7-1 but they also have a 5-game losing streak in November with zero points. They still made the playoffs.

    Yes, absolutely, its important to avoid that type of losing streak to the extent possible, however, what the early start has done is put the team in the position where one such streak does not crater the season right then and there.

    They could lose the next 3 or so and, instead of putting them 5 points back of the wild card, it would just bring them back to that pack.

    Of course, as you state, lets not test that theory and not let a loss turn in to two and then a streak.

    2 games in a row will happen, multiple times but, when it does happen, it needs to be turned around.

    Lets turn this one around after one-loss!

  95. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull:
    Refs were in mid-season form last night.Connor’s rush, which went in and was disallowed.The ref states “No goal due to the goalie being run”.Then it’s a penalty, ref.If it’s an accident, it’s a goal.

    I believe this is an incorrect.

    There can be contact with the goalie that negates a goal and no penalty is called – there is discretion on if a PIM is called.

  96. Jethro Tull says:

    Cassandra: It isn’t used to signal ice time, it is used to signal expectations and role, so that so-called skill players (by which they mean players that can score) are left on the outside in favour of lesser skilled “role” players.

    But this is a false dichotomy, since all players have skill and every player has the same job (or role) which is to outscore the other guys.This doesn’t mean that offensive players are necessarily better than so-called defensive players, but it does mean they should be judged according to the same standard.Using the term bottom six as a heuristic gives an excuse not to play “skill” players because that is not their “role.”

    And, as Wilde notes, this is very much sub-optimal roster construction.Marner and Tavares are getting killed in Toronto, but they are still winning games largely because the 3rd and 4th lines have been crushing other teams.

    And all of this is unnecessary.Toronto’s 5th line is better than Edmonton’s 3rd line.

    I think we’ve been through all this before. You’d be right if all things were equal and you could only play players against similar skilled players. Where it falls down is when you have some crazy coach that insists on trying to play his best players against your shittiest players. He/she reasons that if he had a line that could just contain the other’s best, (as players can’t like play 26+ mins a night, that’s just stooopid), then they could rip into the soft underbelly of the lesser skilled players.

    You hit on it, but didn’t expand; all players have the same job – to outscore the other guys. You can do this two ways – track meet or death by defense. But defense rarely scores goals, so they have to come from somewhere, right? Nearly every sport I’ve played is about trying to create mis-matches in your favour. We saw it last night every time Persson was on the ice.

    Also, as humans, we tend to like compartmentalization. Everything in neat blocks that you shouldn’t have to worry about. Lines solves this neatly.

    If you don’t like that lines exist and think they shouldn’t then you’ll forever be disappointed. The whole game is set up that way. Where we need to change is getting talent down the order – some of those Bakersfield kids on value contracts. Use them up, trade ’em out before they get expensive, minus a few for succession/attrition.

  97. leadfarmer says:

    Oilman99: Yamamoto is too fragile to be an Arvidssontype player.

    Because of a wrist injury???
    Both players are like a dog after a bone on the puck

  98. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: I believe this is an incorrect.

    There can be contact with the goalie that negates a goal and no penalty is called – there is discretion on if a PIM is called.

    Either Connor ran the goalie or he didn’t. It was the refs phrasing I was questioning. I would have had no problem had he said, “call on the ice stands, accidental goal tender interference – no goal.”
    Or that the net came off – it was a close thing.

    He distinctly said the goalie had been run, which suggests a certain callousness. If it was accidental, ie; he was pushed into Crawford, it’s a goal. If it wasn’t the net coming off, it’s a goal.

    Any discretion doesn’t sound like the league protecting goalies. But I get what you’re saying, the rules as they stand are such.

  99. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    v4ance,

    This is so sad.We pretty much have to throw xG and HDSC out the window now till the League gets their shit together.

    I’m not sure that’s true, but year-over-year comparisons are certainly useless.

  100. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m not sure that’s true, but year-over-year comparisons are certainly useless.

    If the League software is measuring/reporting the wrong distance, which the author of the model states, it is certainly correct.

  101. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny: If the League software is measuring/reporting the wrong distance, which the author of the model states, it is certainly correct.

    Comparing xGF between players should still tell us something, as long as we don’t use a historical comparison.

  102. jtblack says:

    was listening to FAN 960 in Calgary. The hosts have discovered what we already knew. Lucic’s offense has dissappeared AND hes a drag for his linemates.

    Thru 6 games he 0 points. -3. 4 shots.

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    PinkSocks:
    I don’t believe Persson is an NHL D.Saad made him look silly walking him in the 2nd, and on the second goal he was extremely slow to react.Not to mention getting run a few times, he appears very hesitant in everything he does.The only reason he isn’t getting completely caved is he has dreamy right next to him all game long.I see Persson and I see Phillip Larsen.Enough offensive acumen to bounce around, but I just don’t see him being anything more than a number 7 or 8 D.

    Maybe, however, of course, he has played 5 games in North America and is being thrust in to top 4 (even top pairing) minutes.

    Tough game yesterday but he had improved in the first 4, game over game.

    Allowing him to play some 3rd pairing minutes (which may happen when Larsson comes back) would surely be beneficial and, of course, at some point, when he becomes more comfortable, some more material PP time as it is his top skill (or have been).

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull: Not sure we have cap room.I suspect until there is, any trade would be money for money, other money leaving or draft picks.

    They do for now with the LTIR relief cushion – they could add $5M ($800K of current space plus $4M (apx) of LTIR relief).

    Of course, that LTIR relief will go away when Larsson is activated.

    The cap addition for that move wouldn’t be $3M, it would be in the $2M to $2.3M range depending on who is moved off the roster.

  105. jm363561 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Maybe, however, of course, he has played 5 games in North America and is being thrust in to top 4 (even top pairing) minutes.

    Tough game yesterday but he had improved in the first 4, game over game.

    Allowing him to play some 3rd pairing minutes (which may happen when Larsson comes back) would surely be beneficial and, of course, at some point, when he becomes more comfortable, some more material PP time as it is his top skill (or have been).

    Totally agree. He is being Schultzed.

  106. Munny says:

    ArmchairGM: Comparing xGF between players should still tell us something, as long as we don’t use a historical comparison.

    Can’t see it. If the errors were in one direction and the model could be adjusted to compensate then probably we could, but that’s not the case as the model-owner points out. Players will have good attempts rated as poor and vice versa. The model will tell us nothing of value till the League fixes their measuring/reporting.

    Edit:

    I would add to this that the errors mean that angles will also be miscalculated and I imagine that the positioning of defensive players is also likely to be off. Perhaps even the goalies’.

  107. jtblack says:

    How is Bouchard doing in AHL so far?

  108. John Chambers says:

    jtblack:
    was listening to FAN 960 in Calgary.The hosts have discovered what we already knew.Lucic’s offense has dissappeared AND hes a drag for his linemates.

    Thru 6 games he 0 points. -3.4 shots.

    All sales are final!

  109. jm363561 says:

    I look at the “bottom six” thing a little differently, Holland inherited a pile of garbage and has put together a roster that might give the $23m line a chance to win games by (I) breaking even when they are off the ice, (ii) winning special teams, and (iii) getting good goal tending. It has worked well so far and almost worked last night.

    JMHO

  110. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    jm363561: Totally agree. He is being Schultzed.

    – I agreed from day 1 that a 25 year old with no NHL experience had no business being asked on top-pair RHD. He was gifted that spot (like Jultz), over a more experienced (and deserving IMO) D

    – To be fair, I think with Larsson, things would be different in terms of deployment

    – And also, he’s just a placeholder for the next wave, holding off the Bouchards etc. I’d rather him than Gravel/Davidson/Garrison or other slow never-beens

    – I’d still on merit have Benning on that 2nd pair. Suspect that might still happen

    I’d go:

    Klef-Larsson
    Nurse-Benning (contract pair)
    Russel-Bear/Larsson

    – Bear won’t last with those minutes either IMO: break in one at a time in sheltered minutes (which was the plan before Larsson injury)

  111. John Chambers says:

    Q for the group:

    Does Bouchard burn off a year of his ELC if he spends 100% of the season in Bakersfield?

  112. jeetz says:

    Daniel Carr is on waivers. He is a bottom 6 player I thought we should have gotten a long time ago. He is fast, aggressive and has a career average of 0.35 PPG in a bottom 6 role

  113. pts2pndr says:

    ArmchairGM: Some of us have been saying this all summer.

    I see them as faster, better penalty killers, more physical and spending more time in the offensive zone. They have not to this point supplied the offence required. This is still a very small sample size.

  114. LadiesloveSmid says:

    John Chambers:
    Q for the group:

    Does Bouchard burn off a year of his ELC if he spends 100% of the season in Bakersfield?

    Rasmus Andersson’s contract slid in his first year in Stockton. He’s an Oct 27 birthday, Bouchard Oct 20.

    I will assume he slides if he plays less than 9 games in Edmonton, could be wrong.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/rasmus-andersson

  115. Gerta Rauss says:

    John Chambers:
    Q for the group:

    Does Bouchard burn off a year of his ELC if he spends 100% of the season in Bakersfield?

    No, the contract will slide

    He can play 9 games in the NHL this year and the contract will still slide

  116. McSorley33 says:

    jm363561,

    I look at the “bottom six” thing a little differently, Holland inherited a pile of garbage and has put together a roster that might give the $23m line a chance to win games by (I) breaking even when they are off the ice, (ii) winning special teams, and (iii) getting good goal tending. It has worked well so far and almost worked last night.

    JMHO
    ******************************************************************************************************

    This sounds like the same strategy 2/3rd of the NHL is employing.

    We have played 1 playoff team so far and we had a day of rest
    ( at least ) between each game.( New Jersey is still winless and so was Chicago until we visited)

    This week we host – wait for it – Philly and Detroit – at home. And with a day off between
    the games.

    It is early but the 0’s being posted by our bottom 6 -with this schedule is – incredible.

    I would like video proof that Archibald has even scored in practice.

  117. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: In its current form it’s a construction that hurts teams’ ability to win. A holdover from before teams overwhelmingly ran power v. power – the minutes available to a bottom six available have gotten easier, but the teams that respond by staffing an effort to score in those minutes are the exception to the rule. It’s a blatant inefficiency that lets some teams play a better 5v5 scoring/developmental games than others at a purely beneficial clip – like MTL with Kotkaniemi’s line in 2018-19.

    e: So I wouldn’t say the anger is directed at anyone here using top six / / bottom six distinctions, seeing as the Oilers absolutely have built their team that way, it’s that the concept itself doesn’t appear to justify its own existence.

    I’m pretty sure both Tippett and Holland see lines this way: (and it’s the correct way imo)

    1st line – best offensive forwards
    2nd line – 2nd best offensive forwards
    3rd line- can check the best in the NHL – primary PKers
    4th line – development of best young players, sometimes with a vet who PKs

    EDM doesn’t have the players yet to run a proper 4th line so they signed a bunch of tweeners and bets from the Euro leagues to fill the gap.

    Soon (maybe?) You’ll have Benson, Yamma, Marody, McLeod to take those spots, but Holland correctly saw that they had nothing to start the year.

    Those players are the ones who move up to the top 2 lines as they earn it.

    This way works.

    Sather, MacT and Lowe saw it this way as do many others.

    Smyth, Hemsky, Horcoff , Graves, Murphy, Gelinas and others developed in the NHL this way and it works.

    Nothing shakes my head harder than when people say (not saying you say this) “X is a top 6 player, leave them in the AHL until they’re ready for a top 6 role”

    The AHL doesn’t prepare a player for a top 6 role.

    It prepares them for a 4th line role (which if they’re good will play more 5v5 TOI than the 3rd line and some will get PP2 time)

    They learn to play in the NHL on a shelter line and then they can move up.

    I’m really not aiming most of this at you, it’s just that your post spurred me to write it.

  118. Munny says:

    McSorley33: I would like video proof that Archibald has even scored in practice.

    Just look up video from last year… he had 12 in 68 gp.

    About 1 every 6 games. He’s played 2.

  119. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilman: Yamamoto is too fragile to be an Arvidssontype player.

    Based on?

    He hurt his wrist last season that required surgery.

    I don’t recall an injury to Yamamoto since he was drafted, in the WHL, NHL or AHL that has been due to his “stature”.

  120. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I’m pretty sure both Tippett and Holland see lines this way: (and it’s the correct way imo)

    1st line – best offensive forwards
    2nd line – 2nd best offensive forwards
    3rd line- can check the best in the NHL – primary PKers
    4th line – development of best young players, sometimes with a vet who PKs

    EDM doesn’t have the players yet to run a proper 4th line so they signed a bunch of tweeners and bets from the Euro leagues to fill the gap.

    Soon (maybe?) You’ll have Benson, Yamma, Marody, McLeod to take those spots, but Holland correctly saw that they had nothing to start the year.

    Those players are the ones who move up to the top 2 lines as they earn it.

    This way works.

    Sather, MacT and Lowe saw it this way as do many others.

    Smyth, Hemsky, Horcoff , Graves, Murphy, Gelinas and others developed in the NHL this way and it works.

    Nothing shakes my head harder than when people say (not saying you say this) “X is a top 6 player, leave them in the AHL until they’re ready for a top 6 role”

    The AHL doesn’t prepare a player for a top 6 role.

    It prepares them for a 4th line role (which if they’re good will play more 5v5 TOI than the 3rd line and some will get PP2 time)

    They learn to play in the NHL on a shelter line and then they can move up.

    I’m really aiming most of this at you, it’s just that your post spurred me to write it.

    This is also what pissed me about JP.

    2 NHL coaches coaching for their jobs wouldn’t put him in the top 6.

    Both put him in the best place they could.

    With a “slightly” offensive C (Strome) in sheltered minutes and he didn’t beat those minutes but still complained about not playing higher.

    Beat those minutes first, then ask.

    I know Looch probably drug that line down a bit, but beat up on 3rd pairing Dmen before demanding to play against the best in the world on a regular basis.

  121. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    *shakes fist at a cloud*

    *buys 8 hogsheads of purple gas*

  122. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: His possession numbers that I shared yesterday are definitely page-jumpers. Having your team go 62% with you and sub-50% without you while playing 1RW is superstar stuff. Hope he keeps it up.

    I have no doubt he’d be a superstar in that league today.

  123. drglen says:

    Profit:
    dustrock,

    I’m also of the mindset to let Persson have another 10+ games to see if he can figure it out. I think the worst case would be to send him down, recall Jones (when he’s barely played any games in BAK) and then have both of them suffer from the whipsaw effect of going up/down.

    He’s got some rope left, but it’s getting shorter. His play yesterday wasn’t NHL replacement level calibre imo.

    he had a rough game but I don’t think he’s ‘failed’. Agree let’s see how he does. No better teacher than these kinds of NHL games.

    Even with everything, oilers could still have won that game with the open looks that they had.

  124. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: The numbers weren’t half bad today though.

    1 goal
    2 points
    9 shots on goal
    14 shot attempts
    23:01 TOI
    60.00 CF%

    Yes, thank you for posting those numbers for today. I was talking about his stats for the year though, only PPG and like 13th (or so) in league scoring. Many seem not happy with that.

    I only saw the third period and OT and it was a dominating performance from Karpat – Skelfeeta was lucky to get the game to OT.

    In my mind SHL > Liiga but maybe that isn’t the case.

  125. Jethro Tull says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Sather, MacT and Lowe saw it this way as do many others.

    Things change. Who in your opinion follows this model?

    I agree with you.

    As I said earlier, it’s two fold. 1) You get more talent for cheaper. 2) You have succession/depth there.

    This should be a cycle of; Player gets call up, player develops, attrition/injury gives player more time as he can handle it, he either can’t handle it (cut bait, bring next one in) or he can, which you either trade him for high picks if there’s no room, or sign him as talent leaves. Wash, rinse, repeat with the next batch.

    ‘Cos I’d lay money those boys in da Bake could have put at least a few goals on more than one of our recent foes.

    I remember reading about Bakersfield has 3 first lines. Is this good news or stagnation?

  126. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    McSorley33,

    – The “bet” was that Nygard, Jurco, Archibald, Haas, Sheehnan, internal spare parts, > Brodziak, Caggs, Reider, Rattie, Gagner, Strome, internal spare parts

    – I was higher on Rattie, Reider, Caggs (and they all sucked, shows what I know) than Nygard Jurco, Archi. Sheehnan better than Brodziak. Neither Haas nor Gagner are NHL options. And spare parts this year better selections

    – And let the draft and develop, develop

    – And if this years bets don’t work out, the draft and develop are developing, and coming

    – Structure made sense. And of course Neal is a steal.

    – Just win Baby

    GOILERS!!!!

  127. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    v4ance,

    This is so sad.We pretty much have to throw xG and HDSC out the window now till the League gets their shit together.

    CF% has predicted future goal scoring better than xGF every season as far as I saw.

    Not a big loss except for multi-season GSAA analysis.

  128. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wilde:

    I can report that Yamamoto appears to not even be on any sort of ‘streak’ but this is just who he is at the AHL level alongside decent linemates. He’s gotten/assisted on tons of chances that haven’t gone in the net.

    Just visually and statistically dominant. I’m absolutely in favour of keeping him down, but it’ll be interesting to see how long he goes goal-per-game.

    Yup, and its simply a continuation of last year before his injury.

    Once he settled in to the AHL last year, he proved to be a dominant and elite AHL player and I suggested that, if healthy, he’ll be at or over a PPG this year.

    He’s dominant in the league.

    With that said, he should stay there for a while, as we all know. He’s PK1 and learning the grind of the pro game and developing in many areas.

    He best not be called up after producing 11 points in 9 games, for example – not until 2020.

  129. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I have no doubt he’d be a superstar in that league today.

    Yes to be clear I’m meaning that those shot impacts in that position over a whole season would make him (nearly certainly) a superstar at 5v5 in the Liiga, not that having those numbers in the Liiga means he is/will be a superstar in the NHL

  130. OriginalPouzar says:

    JohnChambers:
    Q for the group:

    Does Bouchard burn off a year of his ELC if he spends 100% of the season in Bakersfield?

    No, his contract is subject to slide if he does not play 10 NHL games.

    Ryan McLeod, on the other hand, is not subject to slide as his agent smartly didn’t let him sign until the 2019 calendar year and his “signing age” changed.

  131. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: I’m not sure that’s true, but year-over-year comparisons are certainly useless.

    Exactly.

    XGF is made up of ~80% CF and some of the adjustments (mostly location) leaves out so much info that its really not that great and not better than CF% imo.

  132. Cassandra says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    The Hurricanes, Leafs, and Lightning are the three best run organizations in my opinion. None of them run their lines as you have it set up, or anything resembling a top 6, bottom 6 division of labour.

    They acquire the best players they can and they play them up and down the lineup.

    The Hurricanes third line is Martin Necas (who is incredible), Erik Haula, and Ryan Dzingel.
    The Lightning’s 2nd and 3rd lines are indistinguishable because they are both “2nd lines.”

    The Blues have scorers on the 3rd line, and guys on the 4th line who can easily move up.

    Good teams don’t have a divide between a top 6 and bottom 6. It is counterproductive.

  133. OriginalPouzar says:

    jeetz:
    Daniel Carr is on waivers. He is a bottom 6 player I thought we should have gotten a long time ago. He is fast, aggressive and has a career average of 0.35 PPG in a bottom 6 role

    He was one of my hard targets this off-season.

    He’s only played 2 games this year.

    Is he worth the 49th contract?

  134. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Rasmus Andersson’s contract slid in his first year in Stockton. He’s an Oct 27 birthday, Bouchard Oct 20.

    I will assume he slides if he plays less than 9 games in Edmonton, could be wrong.

    https://www.capfriendly.com/players/rasmus-andersson

    Its not just a function of birthdate/age but also a function of “signing age” (which is sometimes not the age when the ELC is signed – its technical), however, yes, in this case, Bouchard’s contract is indeed subject to a 2nd slide as his signing age was 18.

  135. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack:
    was listening to FAN 960 in Calgary.The hosts have discovered what we already knew.Lucic’s offense has dissappeared AND hes a drag for his linemates.

    Thru 6 games he 0 points. -3.4 shots.

    Watching the CGY fan base and media discover what they have in Lucic is fun to watch.

    Schadenfreude of the highest order.

    I predict that Eric Francis will the Hiro Onoda of the group and will continue to extoll Lucic’s intangibles until CGY somehow (and at great cost) moves him along.

  136. drglen says:

    Don’t really know Daniel Carr, but does not appear to score, … so , i’m not sure what we would gain hypothetically. weve already got plenty of guys who can’t score, don’t bring in more.

  137. frjohnk says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: Brodziak, Caggs, Reider, Rattie, Gagner, Strome

    Crazy thing is that Chia traded the two best players in this list ( Caggs and Strome) for spare parts.
    Brodziak was done
    Reider scored zilch
    Rattie was not an NHLer
    Ganger

    Last years bottom 6 was a complete disaster that ranks with the worst in league history.

    Two years with RNH, McDavid and Drai on the bench, the forwards scored a total of 1 goal in something like the first 21 games at 5 on 5.

    Being an Oilers fan since I can remember ( early 80’s) one can never say never, but it would hard for this years bottom 6 forwards to duplicate last years abomination and should be better than the guys from 2 years ago.

  138. Wilde says:

    Woodguy v2.0: 1st line – best offensive forwards
    2nd line – 2nd best offensive forwards
    3rd line- can check the best in the NHL – primary PKers
    4th line – development of best young players, sometimes with a vet who PKs

    With regard to the optimal 3rd line constructed here: I think that the guys who can check the best in the NHL (who aren’t also those who score/are the 1st/2nd best offensively line-wise against the best in the NHL) currently only make up 15-20% of the guys that NHL orgs play as if they can, and I don’t know what the ceiling is going to be for how many players like that there will be in the league once orgs are better at identifying/generating them.

    It’s kind of like the players who are understood to kill minutes offensively with enough sheltering, who are given a pass for underperforming relative to their sheltering because they’re evaluated by a binary. That, but reversed for checking. Players who are written off as controlled GF% losses b/c of their tough deployment, when the team might be better off if the toughs were spread out

  139. Darth Tu says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Watching the CGY fan base and media discover what they have in Lucic is fun to watch.

    Schadenfreude of the highest order.

    I predict that Eric Francis will the Hiro Onoda of the group and will continue to extoll Lucic’s intangibles until CGY somehow (and at great cost) moves him along.

    Lucic to Vancouver for Louie, with Calgary retaining $1 million.

  140. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Schadenfreude of the highest order.

    And, I imagine, they’re eating some kummerspeck right now.

  141. Professor Q says:

    OriginalPouzar: Based on?

    He hurt his wrist last season that required surgery.

    I don’t recall an injury to Yamamoto since he was drafted, in the WHL, NHL or AHL that has been due to his “stature”.

    It’s sort of the same thing as Oilers-haters and doubters claiming that McDavid is just going to get injured again.

    He’s never been injury prone and has only been injured 3x in his entire hockey career going back to before junior. Only the result of fighting and people intentionally trying to take him out.

    Yet people have labelled him and as such, so he shall remain.

  142. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    John Chambers: All sales are final!

    As is.

  143. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Broberg with a 3 on 3 OT shift – a Broberg rush stifled by Puljujarvi…..

    How did Broberg play??

  144. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Jethro Tull: Things change. Who in your opinion follows this model?

    I agree with you.

    As I said earlier, it’s two fold. 1) You get more talent for cheaper. 2) You have succession/depth there.

    This should be a cycle of; Player gets call up, player develops, attrition/injury gives player more time as he can handle it, he either can’t handle it (cut bait, bring next one in) or he can, which you either trade him for high picks if there’s no room, or sign him as talent leaves. Wash, rinse, repeat with the next batch.

    ‘Cos I’d lay money those boys in da Bake could have put at least a few goals on more than one of our recent foes.

    I remember reading about Bakersfield has 3 first lines.Is this good news or stagnation?

    Most teams (certainly not all, but they’re getting better) follow this model which is why players like Omark and Ho-sang pass threw waivers easily.

    The spots they’d taken on the new team’s roster are taken by their own prospects who they know much better and have a the sunk cost of time and money invested in the player.

    EDM fans seem to have a different view as a group and I think that’s because they’ve rushed their best prospects to the top 6 forever and ran an “energy 4th line” instead of a “development 4th line”

    That hasn’t been normal in the NHL for 5+ years among many teams.

  145. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar: In my mind SHL > Liiga but maybe that isn’t the case.

    I think you’re right about that, but we’re seeing the 2nd best Liiga team vs an average SHL club here. It’s close, obviously, but I’d say SHL was the superior league.

  146. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    The Hurricanes, Leafs, and Lightning are the three best run organizations in my opinion.None of them run their lines as you have it set up, or anything resembling a top 6, bottom 6 division of labour.

    They acquire the best players they can and they play them up and down the lineup.

    The Hurricanes third line is Martin Necas (who is incredible), Erik Haula, and Ryan Dzingel.
    The Lightning’s 2nd and 3rd lines are indistinguishable because they are both “2nd lines.”

    The Blues have scorers on the 3rd line, and guys on the 4th line who can easily move up.

    Good teams don’t have a divide between a top 6 and bottom 6.It is counterproductive.

    Those teams run their lines pretty close to what I stated if not exactly.

  147. ArmchairGM says:

    Cassandra: The Hurricanes, Leafs, and Lightning are the three best run organizations in my opinion. None of them run their lines as you have it set up, or anything resembling a top 6, bottom 6 division of labour

    Now compare the playoff record to the regular season record for these three clubs.

  148. Crazy Pedestrian says:

    ArmchairGM: Now compare the playoff record to the regular season record for these three clubs.

    1st one super over-achieves… 2nd one super under-achieves… 3rd one is a gamblers nightmare!

  149. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Here’s something relatively interesting.

    Here is EDM’s 5v5 goal share last year with 97, 93 and 29 on the ice.

    29’s time with either 97 or 93 will be lumped into their time.29’s GF% is only his time away from both.

    18/19
    97 – 51%(77-75)
    93 – 44% (29-37)
    29 – 40% (14-21)
    None of 29, 97, 93 on ice 37% (26-45)

    Now this year:
    97 – 58% (7-5)
    93 – 67% (4-2)
    29 – 0% (0-2)
    None of 29, 93, 97 on ice 14% (1-6)

    The improvement 5v5 is all in the top 2 lines.

    The bottom six is much worse so far.

    Very small sample so hopefully it rises, but “Ken fixed the bottom 6” doesn’t hold water yet.

    I was looking at NST and it shows the Oilers 1GF-4GA with the big 3 off (5v5) and 3-4 at even strength.

    I’ve tried a little to find the missing goals and Nurse did score vs LA (assisted by Jurco and also with Haas and Granlund on the ice, according to NST WOWY).

    The Nygard goal from Haas was 4v4 I think. Not sure about the missing EV GF or the goals against (the empty net goals for and against appear to have all involved McDavid/Drai on the ice.

    I know you’re not my answer monkey but any ideas about the difference? 2GF-4GA or 3GF-4GA (even strength) is a whole lot better than 1GF-6GA, if those are in fact the correct numbers.

    Edit: Your numbers from last year match NST FWIW.

  150. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Wilde: With regard to the optimal 3rd line constructed here: I think that the guys who can check the best in the NHL (who aren’t also those who score/are the 1st/2nd best offensively line-wise against the best in the NHL) currently only make up 15-20% of the guys that NHL orgs play as if they can, and I don’t know what the ceiling is going to be for how many players like that there will be in the league once orgs are better at identifying/generating them.

    Agreed on the availability of these players.

    Tyler once posted a thing about how every line gets scored on about the same vs Elites, but the difference is how much that line scored against the elites that moved the GF% goalposts.

    I’ve haven’t ground the data to check it but he usually has (had) the goods.

    That’s probably why Power v Power (as you noted) is the usual match up.

    I think guys like Khadri is the epitome of this players.

    Better than average defensively, but can also drive offense and piss off the competition a lot.

    TOR lost a lot when they lost him imo.

    They added a bunch in Barrie, but I think I’m not sure how that equation balances.

    Its probably close, but I’m not sure how to measure it.

  151. who says:

    All this gnashing of teeth re the Oilers bottom 6 is making me laugh.
    What was everyone expecting? The Oilers prospects aren’t quite ready, and they couldn’t really afford to add any proven scorers, so Holland plugged the holes as best he could.
    It’s not perfect, but it might be good enough to sneak into the playoffs. Maybe next summer frees up a little cap space. Or maybe one or two rookies hit next year. Or maybe we trade an established dman for an established scorer next summer.
    Right now, this is us.

  152. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Darth Tu: Lucic to Vancouver for Louie, with Calgary retaining $1 million.

    That’s really close to my guess.

    Looch might be on his 4th team with 3 teams retaining on the same contract for 21/22, but he’s probably on Robidas Island by then with back issues.

  153. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny: kummerspeck

    You made me google kummerspeck and I’m better for it.

    Thank you.

    My guess was “humble pie” but this is much better.

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB51: How did Broberg play??

    I only saw the third period and OT – Karpat absolutely dominated the third period. I didn’t notice any egregious mistakes but they were defending the entire time.

  155. Pouzar says:

    who: What was everyone expecting?

    1. Better 5v5 than last year’s crew(lowest of low bars). Nope.
    2. Better PK. Yup.

  156. Wilde says:

    who:
    All this gnashing of teeth re the Oilers bottom 6 is making me laugh.
    What was everyone expecting? The Oilers prospects aren’t quite ready, and they couldn’t really afford to add any proven scorers, so Holland plugged the holes as best he could.
    It’s not perfect, but it might be good enough to sneak into the playoffs. Maybe next summer frees up a little cap space. Or maybe one or two rookies hit next year. Or maybe we trade an established dman for an established scorer next summer.
    Right now, this is us.

    I hope to god you weren’t actually reading anything that was being said

  157. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Agreed on the availability of these players.

    Tyler once posted a thing about how every line gets scored on about the same vs Elites, but the difference is how much that line scored against the elites that moved the GF% goalposts.

    I’ve haven’t ground the data to check it but he usually has (had) the goods.

    That’s probably why Power v Power (as you noted) is the usual match up.

    I think guys like Khadri is the epitome of this players.

    Better than average defensively, but can also drive offense and piss off the competition a lot.

    TOR lost a lot when they lost him imo.

    They added a bunch in Barrie, but I think I’m not sure how that equation balances.

    Its probably close, but I’m not sure how to measure it.

    When Holland signs Barrie next summer, that trade won’t look quite as good for the Leafs.

  158. ArmchairGM says:

    Woodguy v2.0: That’s really close to my guess.

    Looch might be on his 4th team with 3 teams retaining on the same contract for 21/22, but he’s probably on Robidas Island by then with back issues.

    His contract can only be retained on twice. Calgary can take 50% of their current cap hit at the most, but that’s it for retention on the Lucic/Chiarelli contract.

  159. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    It wasn’t even normal in the Comrade Horcoff days.

  160. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp,

    I was looking at NST and it shows the Oilers 1GF-4GA with the big 3 off (5v5) and 3-4 at even strength.

    That’s really weird because when I posted that NST game me 1-6.

    Now it gives me 1-4 (still bad)

    I’ll stand corrected on this.

  161. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: When Holland signs Barrie next summer, that trade won’t look quite as good for the Leafs.

    I’ve like Barrie forever but I’m not sure I sign him with Bouchard coming and Bear on the roster as he’ll cost a tonne and he’s a better version of Faulk.

    What he does best:

    1) Play PP1
    2) Move the puck up and join the offence in the ozone

    will be on the roster at a much, much cheaper price.

    They won’t be as good as him at it (to start) but Barrie probably gets $8MM and if you have it on the roster (esp. moving the puck 5v5) on two ELCs then you don’t pay Barrie, you pay a forward to play with Nuge (and Neal at this point) with that dough.

    EDM has internal high end Dman options coming out the ying gang but not true “high end” forward options at all.

    That’s what they need to pay for over the next 3-4 years if they want to win soon.

  162. Munny says:

    Woodguy v2.0: CF% has predicted future goal scoring

    I will continue to use Corsi then. I don’t buy into models till they prove themselves anyway. Not in any field of math or science. Still the loss of a–somewhat–accurate count of HDSC is a blow.

  163. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    ArmchairGM: His contract can only be retained on twice. Calgary can take 50% of their current cap hit at the most, but that’s it for retention on the Lucic/Chiarelli contract.

    I did not know there was a limit to the number of teams that can retain on a contract.

    If I was an owner/GM I’d ask that this be removed.

    Thanks again for the new information.

  164. pts2pndr says:

    OriginalPouzar: Based on?

    He hurt his wrist last season that required surgery.

    I don’t recall an injury to Yamamoto since he was drafted, in the WHL, NHL or AHL that has been due to his “stature”.

    So exactly what you are saying. That Yamamoto would need to hurt himself while racing after a puck of gold at the end of rainbow coloured goal posts. Inquiring minds want to know what you classify as an injury due to stature.
    stature.

  165. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    jp,

    I was looking at NST and it shows the Oilers 1GF-4GA with the big 3 off (5v5) and 3-4 at even strength.

    That’s really weird because when I posted that NST game me 1-6.

    Now it gives me 1-4 (still bad)

    I’ll stand corrected on this.

    Yes, 1-4 5v5 is still bad, but if we believe NST it improves to 3-4 at evens. There wouldn’t be a lot of complaining about the latter I suspect.

    The problem is I can’t find that 3rd goal for so I’m doubting it (though I guess if everything else is kosher as far as you know maybe I/we should just believe NST). Maybe it was scored around a line change just after the big guns went off?

  166. leadfarmer says:

    People really underestimate Yamamoto
    He’s got a motor that won’t quit
    He’s going to have an Nhl career
    And not because our depth sucks

  167. OriginalPouzar says:

    Pouzar: 1. Better 5v5 than last year’s crew(lowest of low bars). Nope.
    2. Better PK. Yup.

    In my opinion, they have been much better at 5 on 5 than last year. Nope, haven’t produced, and they will need to do that occasionally, however, aside from yesterday, they have generally been able to maintain momentum created by the top lines and even create it on occasion. Lots of offensive zone time as compared to previous years that were just getting caved and just hoping to get the puck out of the defensive zone before taking a PIM or getting scored on.

  168. OriginalPouzar says:

    ptspndr: So exactly what you are saying. That Yamamoto would need to hurt himself while racing after a puck of gold at the end of rainbow coloured goal posts. Inquiring minds want to know what you classify as an injury due to stature.
    stature.

    What an odd question if its an actual question as opposed to being asked based on some sort of personal issue.

  169. jp says:

    leadfarmer:
    People really underestimate Yamamoto
    He’s got a motor that won’t quit
    He’s going to have an Nhl career
    And not because our depth sucks

    +1

  170. Glovjuice says:

    It should be very obvious to all here that Persson is not a 1-6 NHL D-man.

  171. Yeti says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Watching the CGY fan base and media discover what they have in Lucic is fun to watch.

    I’m struggling to understand how they could not know what they were getting. I mean, they watched him play against them countless times over the past years. What were they hoping for?

  172. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Pouzar: 1. Better 5v5 than last year’s crew(lowest of low bars). Nope.
    2. Better PK. Yup.

    PK GA/60 is a big deal.

    Especially when the PP is hitting.

    4v5 SV% is off the charts right now. Will be interesting to look at it in late Nov.

    Makes up for some shittiness 5v5.

    Need to be good PK and not be shitty 5v5 though.

    Its an improvement.

  173. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jp: Yes, 1-4 5v5 is still bad, but if we believe NST it improves to 3-4 at evens. There wouldn’t be a lot of complaining about the latter I suspect.

    The problem is I can’t find that 3rd goal for so I’m doubting it (though I guess if everything else is kosher as far as you know maybe I/we should just believe NST). Maybe it was scored around a line change just after the big guns went off?

    The thing about “Evens” that you need to worry about and why I don’t use it is because it includes Empty Net situations.

    No shit.

    The NHL considers 6 skaters vs. 5 skaters and a goalie to be “even strength” even though the team with the goalie gets ~68% of the goals.

    I wrote about that here:

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2018/11/nhl-including-empty-net-goals-in.html

    Also,

    Hass-Nygard got a 4v4 goal and that would be included in Even Strength.

    I tracked 5v5, 4v4, 3v3 separately from EN situations because they are soooooo different.

  174. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Munny:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    It wasn’t even normal in the Comrade Horcoff days.

    I know right?

    Also,

    Komrade Horcov

  175. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    People really underestimate Yamamoto
    He’s got a motor that won’t quit
    He’s going to have an Nhl career
    And not because our depth sucks

    Agreed.

    I have him coming in before Xmas and as 1RW or 2RW before the end of January.

    He’s running over the AHL right now based on what I read from people I trust.

    First time he’s done that and glad he’s healthy enough to do that.

  176. OriginalPouzar says:

    In addition to Starrett out, no Hebig or Maksimov tonight.

  177. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Yeti: I’m struggling to understand how they could not know what they were getting. I mean, they watched him play against them countless times over the past years. What were they hoping for?

    The NHL has run on 3+ year old reputations since I started paying attention to these things almost 16 years ago.

    Its improved, but not so much that you still can’t utterly own someone in a trade.

  178. OriginalPouzar says:

    Glovjuice:
    It should be very obvious to all here that Persson is not a 1-6 NHL D-man.

    It should be very obvious to all here that starting your NHL career playing top pairing minutes is not ideal and a player that has never played on North American ice may not have hit their ceiling after 4 games on said ice.

  179. OriginalPouzar says:

    Not quite a full crowd in Stockton…..

  180. Gerta Rauss says:

    Yeti: I’m struggling to understand how they could not know what they were getting. I mean, they watched him play against them countless times over the past years. What were they hoping for?

    I think Treliving (and coach) wanted to rid themselves of Neal so badly that they were willing to convince themselves that Lucic was a better option than Neal with 4 more years on his contract

    The Flames did get $500k of cap space out of the deal, and are well on their way to a 3rd round pick, but yeah, you’re left shaking your head at the outcome

  181. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow, Yamamoto just made a crazy slick PK play that sent Malone in all alone.

    No goal but, man, that was crazy by Kailer.

    Again, his box-cars do not do his game justice – he’s creating almost every time I see him on the ice.

  182. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cave/McLeod/Gagner as a line.

    Bouch is playing with Lagesson.

  183. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woody did say they were dealing with some injury stuff which is my guess as to why Hebig and Maksi aren’t playing.

  184. OriginalPouzar says:

    Joe G. scores on a breakaway – showed good skating to pull away from the check, solid power.

    Not sure who hit him with the stretch pass – will find out.

  185. OriginalPouzar says:

    Gagner rips one home from McLeod.

    Condors dominating early.

    Nice hesitation by McLeod to wait for help.

  186. OriginalPouzar says:

    Malone bumbles a great Yamamoto transition pass. Would have been a clear 2 on 1 with Joe G.

    Malone costing Yamamoto points…….

  187. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Joe G. scores on a breakaway – showed good skating to pull away from the check, solid power.

    Not sure who hit him with the stretch pass – will find out.

    It was Yamamoto with the stretch pass.

    Geez 4 great plus plays by Kailer in the first 10 minutes.

  188. OriginalPouzar says:

    Cave with the 2nd assist on the Gagner goal.

  189. OriginalPouzar says:

    Wow, McLeod blocks a shot on the PK and powers a rush all the way down and to the net – McLeod looking very good early.

  190. jp says:

    Woodguy v2.0: The thing about “Evens” that you need to worry about and why I don’t use it is because it includes Empty Net situations.

    No shit.

    The NHL considers 6 skaters vs. 5 skaters and a goalie to be “even strength” even though the team with the goalie gets ~68% of the goals.

    I wrote about that here:

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2018/11/nhl-including-empty-net-goals-in.html

    Also,

    Hass-Nygard got a 4v4 goal and that would be included in Even Strength.

    I tracked 5v5, 4v4, 3v3 separately from EN situations because they are soooooo different.

    It is funny that goalie pulled is considered even strength but not 5v5.

    I did notice that the Nygard goal was 4v4. That accounts for 2 of the 3 EVGF NST lists.

    As I said above the mythical 3rd goal doesn’t appear to be EN since McDavid/Draisaitl were on for all of the Oilers “with-” or “against empty net” goals on the year.

    The goal is a phantom. Maybe NST has a glitch.

  191. OriginalPouzar says:

    Marody takes a pass from Benson and shows what looked like great speed to cause an odd-man rush. Foiled. Marody then with a nice pass to Kulevich in front and draws a PP.

  192. OriginalPouzar says:

    Takes about 15 seconds to score on the PP – Yamamoto tips home a Jones point shot.

    Goals in 4 straight for Yamamoto – he is absolutely tearing this game apart.

  193. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bouchard with a bomb from the point on a delayed PP makes it 4-0.

    Peluso with the assist on the pass back to the point.

  194. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Takes about 15 seconds to score on the PP – Yamamoto tips home a Jones point shot.

    Goals in 4 straight for Yamamoto – he is absolutely tearing this game apart.

    If he keeps ripping it up in Bakersfield when does he get the call up?

  195. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Woody did say they were dealing with some injury stuff which is my guess as to why Hebig and Maksi aren’t playing.

    Holt talking about how deep the Condors all mentioned them healthy scratching Maksimov and Hebig.

    Guess they aren’t injured. I’m not happy with Maksi being healthy scratched. He’s a “real prospect” unlike a guy like Esposito, Malone, Peluso, Cave, etc.

  196. OriginalPouzar says:

    4-0 Condors after 1.

    Just a dominating performance. Skinner stopped 8, none of them dangerous.

    Yamamoto was just dominating, every shift.

    Special teams great:

    – PK was 2/2 and is still 100% for the year (this is game 4).

    – PP hadn’t scored in the first 3 but it took 15 seconds to get one and then they set up on a delayed PP and scored. Technically just 1 for 1.

  197. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: If he keeps ripping it up in Bakersfield when does he get the call up?

    2020, hopefully.

  198. jp says:

    Yeti: I’m struggling to understand how they could not know what they were getting. I mean, they watched him play against them countless times over the past years. What were they hoping for?

    Well Lucic actually had the better season last year, as hard as that is to believe.

    Neal was among the 2 worst Flames (forwards) in share of corsi, fenwick, shots, scoring chances, high danger chances and goals. With favourable zone starts. Plus he didn’t score.

    Lucic was one of the top 2 Oilers in all of those metrics except goals (still about even relative to team) with slightly difficult ZS.

    He’s also younger, and has his brand name as THE nuclear deterrent.

    Neal was clearly the better bet to rebound, but the impartial view shows Lucic contributing more last season. It’s not far from there to convincing ones self that it might be worth it.

  199. OriginalPouzar says:

    Of note, McLeod is playing wing – working on his board work, etc.

    He had a fantastic first period – at evens and the PK.

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