Mike Smith was splendid in Winnipeg on Sunday night, the Oilers backchecked like demons (Nuge in OT was a clinic), Ethan Bear is authoring an impressive story, there were just five giveaways by the Oilers, the team won the possession game and Edmonton grabbed a point on the road as they head to Minnesota. Lots of good, a little worry, but for me those things are the big takeaway from YWG.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.
- New Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s impressive Liiga performance headlines Oilers prospects this week
- Lowetide: Oilers recall Sam Gagner to bolster offensive depth, option Gaetan Haas
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers afford to pursue Taylor Hall in free agency?
- Lowetide: There are many similarities between this year’s Oilers team after seven and the 2016-17 team that made the playoffs. Similarities, differences and the work that needs to be done.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘That was pretty sick’: What teammates and opponents are saying about Connor McDavid’s latest goal
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I’m gonna bring a bigger bag with me’: Oilers rookies learn about life on the road in the NHL
- Jonathan Willis: A deep dive on the Oilers’ bottom six, which needs to produce more offence
- Lowetide: Ethan Bear’s early success with the Oilers and what it might mean at the trade deadline
- Jonathan Willis: How well are the solutions to key Oilers weaknesses working?
- Dom Luszczyszyn: Is the Oilers’ hot start for real?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Oscar Klefbom playing tough minutes with inexperienced partners — and looking good doing it
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘He’s addicted to getting better’: What the Oilers are saying about Connor McDavid’s amazing start
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers who could win (or lose) NHL jobs early in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Several unproven players are earning NHL jobs and increasing roster quality and depth. No balance photo, but some traction early.
- Daniel and Jon: Ten bold (and not so bold) predictions for the Oilers this season
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
OILERS IN OCTOBER
- Oilers in October 2015: 3-6-0, goal differential -6
- Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-0, goal differential +10
- Oilers in October 2017: 3-5-1, goal differential -8
- Oilers in October 2018: 4-3-1, goal differential -4
- Oilers in October 2019: 7-1-1, goal differential +10
No downbeat verbal here, I thought the Oilers played well enough to win and you could argue one of the gunners should have cashed. No matter, there’s no hole to dig out from, this team is not burning daylight and I won’t be mentioning the Donner party in October.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (3-1-0)
- At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
- At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 7-1-1, 15 points after 9 games
The Oilers have collected 15 points, the total number I projected for the entire month! There are five games left. What is a reasonable record over those five games? I would suggest it best to stay the course, to avoid adding up possible wins in Minnesota, at home to Florida, on the road to Detroit. It’s nice to think about 10 wins, but there’s miles to go.
OILERS 2019-20
Oilers have been impressive offensively for most of the month, so a shutout isn’t going to harm the boxcars. On the other hand, check out the save percentages on the goaltenders. Holy smokes! Sakes alive! All numbers below five-on-five, via NST.
LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 14:49, going 11-8 Corsi, 8-3 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.
Leon Draisaitl had a shot on goal, a giveaway, went 1-6 in the dot, looked a little tired to my eye, and never did send one of those patented feather passes to McDavid (despite several chances) on a two-on-one. You’ll hear a lot about effort today, for me the big man didn’t have a full tank. Those PK minutes need to be shed. The no-look backhand 80 feet pass to 97 is other worldly and we should never pretend it’s common. Connor McDavid had three shots, a couple of looks, two or three stunning passes, but the Jets did a nice job against him. He went 8-11 Corsi against Morrissey, and 4-9 against Lowry and his line. That’s some good hockey by the Jets. Zack Kassian drew two penalties and was a solid goalmouth presence. He played well, almost getting shots away from the high slot twice, but dashed both times by good checking.
LINE 2 Alex Chiasson-Nuge-James Neal played 11:28, going 8-6 Corsi, 3-1 shots, no goals and 1-1 HDSC.
Alex Chiasson had the line’s best chance to score, and showed he can play a responsible game. He and Neal look like they can be good on the cycle together. Nuge’s best moment came in OT after a turnover, he hauled ass back and lifted the stick of the thief who wronged him 100 feet before. I thought RNH had a terrific game. James Neal had some looks but nothing rhymed (rare on any night this season). He is not a one dimensional player, but that hammer would have been welcome last night.
LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 7:28, going 4-6 Corsi, 2-1 shots, no goals and no HDSC.
Jujhar Khaira was disappointing again. He needs to get to the puck, handle the puck, make good things happen. But he’s hesitant and gets run over by the rush. It’s a concern. If he hadn’t taken an unnecessary penalty, the scoresheet would have nothing to show for his night’s work. Big PK minutes, that’s keeping him in the lineup. Riley Sheahan had a shot, went 2-1 on the dot, passed and transported the puck well. Also a PK staple. Josh Archibald was more noticeable on this line but he’s still not around the puck enough to make a difference.
LINE 4 Tomas Jurco-Markus Granlund-Patrick Russell played 7:28 and went 13-1 Corsi! It was a terrific night. 8-0 shots, no goals and 3-0 HDSC. Splendid game by this trio.
Tomas Jurco continues to play an intelligent game, he’s playing well enough to get another shot at No. 2 LW should the job come available. Markus Granlund had a great scoring chance, went 3-3 on the dot and played over 2 minutes on the PK. Patrick Russell is a fourth line cheat code, four shots, two HDSC and wise decisions everywhere.
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 18:43 together, going 15-12 Corsi and 9-2 shots. They were 0-2 on the HDSC despite 8:34 with McDavid. Some wobble, but went 6-3 against the Scheifele line. 7 offensive and three defensive faceoffs.
Darnell Nurse skated miles, and he had to what with the George Jetsons as the opposition. He doesn’t seem to get much credit with a fairly vocal portion of the fanbase, but he was quality defending last night. Ethan Bear’s passing is becoming a big part of Edmonton’s game when he’s on the ice. So much accomplished with a simple pass. Bear is also moving in on PK duty, playing 3:43 at the discipline. Had a dandy chance to score.
PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Kris Russell played 14:04 together, going 11-10 Corsi, 7-3 shots, no goals and 3-1 HDSC. Five offensive and two defensive faceoffs.
Oscar Klefbom had six shot attempts (in all disciplines) and three shotblocks. He is Edmonton’s best defenseman. Kris Russell had a giveaway, a takeaway and two blocked shots, plus he did some good things on the PK. He is a bend but not break defenseman, and that’s what he did last night.
PAIRING THREE Brandon Manning and Matt Benning played 7:48, going 4-4 Corsi, 2-3 shots and 1-0 HDSC.
Brandon Manning was effective, save for a giveaway and 1:25 with Kris Russell (0-3 Corsi). Matt Benning had a shot on goal, blocked one, and used his mobility to handle dozens of sorties. Oilers should use him more. Bear has taken his PK minutes.
GOALIE Mike Smith was beyond outstanding. Stopped 23 of 23, including six (NST number) that were high danger. I’m writing about this today at The Athletic, but the goaltending is stout. Stout!
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we start the clock on a working week with a terrific guest list. Murat Ates from The Athletic will pop in to talk about the game last night and matchups he noticed. Jason Gregor will give his opinion on this October run by the Oilers and what it might mean for the rest of the season. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Good point! (hehe,pun intended)
I posted this in the summer when we were having our annual Nurse offseason contract discussion.
Healthy Oscar is the key to DN’s next deal. Not just the reduction of 1PP points but also 5v5 mins.
Some nights Klefbom is the superior defender, would be nice if Persson could stay healthy.
Yeah maybe (hopefully) not.
Only 9 of his points came on the PP last year though and he’s currently on pace for 64. 43 more points in the 73 remaining games wouldn’t be too big of a stretch.
I know he’s off to a more productive 5 on 5 production start but i don’t see him nearing 50 points without more PP1 time which is unlikely if Klef stays healthy.
Yes, of course.
For what it’s worth, I dearly hope you are correct … for all our sakes.
I don’t know about their game score, GAR, WAR.
In terms of points, do you really think Nurse will be penalized for is relative lack of scoring 4 or 5 years ago?
If he gets 50 points this year he has 91 over the most recent 2 seasons. 0.55 PPG.
Trouba had 74 in 137 games the 2 yrs before this big deal. 0.54 PPG.
I just don’t see how he doesn’t get $7.5 or $8M if he puts up 50 points this year.
I hope I’m wrong, I just don’t see $6.5M as reasonable if he scores 50 (on the heals of 41 last year.
The gap between these two in Game Score, GAR, WAR, etc, is massive. I love Nurse but Trouba is clearly the superior player.
0.44 p/gp vs 0.38 (if Nurse has a 50 point season) – he’s a 0.33 p/gp now.
Righty vs Lefty.
Gotta love the Oilers, eh? Perhaps because of low expectations and lots of practice at feeling crushed by now, it’s nice to have a few points at the moment. But best of all, seeing these players gel bit by bit. No half asked games (so far). Players stepping up to do their bit. Goalies stopping goals. Nuge looking like Nuge. etc etc etc. Fantastic.
And this community rocks. Even an ‘Oil’ conversation around global warming issues stays civil, as these things go these days.
As for Greta, I loved her snarl. It made a lot of people wriggle and squirm and complain, but not many young ones. I can’t wait till they get to vote.
Hopefully the oilers dynasty is in full drive by then.
Boxcars? Older? Not sure where you’re seeing the gap.
“… the guys that signed long-term deals for above 8% are all younger and/or have better career boxcars than Nurse is projected to have come June – and I’m basing this on a 50-point season.”
That’s pretty poor advice when most of the readers live in a country where the birth rate is far below replacement level.
This.
Everything else is kinda meaningless if its not addressed.
Best thing any individual can do for the environment is not have kids.
rickithebear,
Sorry, ricki, I’ve already had my minutes on the street corner soapbox.
Awesome
I watched the video — it’s comical. Then the subsequent video was Borat’s interview on Fox and Friends the day his movie came out. Now *that’s* funny.
LT:
Love Moses and his Idea city.
Patrick Moore’s digital Coles Notes.
“ Sensible enviorimentalist”
https://youtu.be/UFHX526NPbE
Pescador,
Hahaha! I know that one.
Wins the internet.
Just back from a long day working the polls. While civility and honesty may be lacking in Politics and Society writ large these days, the Canadian electoral system is beautiful. I am not talking about first past the post, just the fact it is your neighbors are running the polls. They do so honestly with great civility, be proud Canada.
What???!!!
How do possibly garner all this from Corner Gas & Letterkenny?
Geez get over yourself
Well that’s too bad, Sasha Baron Cohen at his comedic best.
I think the video is like 3 mins & a good laugh
I have sifted through all comments and can’t find any that are overly disagreeable. So, and this is the only time I’ve ever said this in a thread so full of politics, carry on. And a heartfelt thanks for not tearing the place apart while I was out.
Haha. I think YOU won the internet today!!
Munny:
Hellers source of temp was largely rural based measures.
Recorded in print media.
Obtained thru digital recognition.
Why would you have to modify the data?
Sure if you are using a station sitting on an asphalt road in the middle of a city.
The radiant affects would need to be modified.
Heller showed the removal of strong known data.
In a science program we all had to take “ethics of Science”
Look at Greenpeace USA saying Patrick Moore was not an origionator of Greenpeace.
Just incredible these idiots slander a leader in Nuclear protest during Cold War.
http://joannenova.com.au/2019/03/greenpeace-lies-to-save-the-planet-erasing-patrick-moore-again/
This.
I think this does a really good of job capturing the spirit of much of the discourse today, here and more broadly.
Looks like progressive socialism is back on the menu. My considerable tax dollars well spent on this fine election coverage (and no streaming fee!!!)
The CBC is the public relations division of the Laurentian elite which reinforce their narrative…i.e. the persuasion engine of the Canadian Deep State. They are creating the division and the wealth inequality.
The CBC presents an extremely one-sided narrative. And narrative amplification and control. All the time. That is how we can go from a genocidal nation a few months ago to normalizing a blackface Prime Minister.
Of course, but no I didn’t watch it. I tend to prefer reading — in any discipline — because it is easier to read carefully and critically than it is to listen carefully and critically. Plus one can read information far quicker than can get it by video. And time is short lol.
CBC gets a $1.5 billion subsidy to compete against the private sector.
Their performance under the circumstances is appalling.
– CBC’s production value covering the election is really first rate: a combination of former politicians from all sides, political operatives, journalists, different ages ethnicities and backgrounds
– The graphics and projections and explanations of various ridings top notch
– Great stuff IMO. Some good points from the panel about the problems that first past the post ends up creating lots of divisions: a concentration of region votes meaning a disproportiante amount of seats won by special interest parties, a government that has no representation in huge swaths of the country, a minority government that might not have as many votes as the opposition. Interesting times: and congrats to the CBC coverage, representing all of Canada.
GOILERS!!!!
Why isn’t Trouba (9.8% X 7) a comp?
Speaking of Bear…
Will respect the 24 hr rule and not quote Playfair who sees some Giordano in Bear.
https://edmontonsun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/edmonton-oilers/ethan-bear-has-been-a-huge-surprise-on-edmonton-oilers-blue-line
Wins the internet today.
Neither do I.
I guess I don’t know what this is in reference to
lol this is excellent.
Well said Munny, hope read my previous post as jest.
Or at least watched the video ?
A year later
e: and tbqh what they’re currently doing with Bear is a bit much, too, just because it’s paid off doesn’t mean it wasn’t a bit of a leap
duct tape and foil,
Most of the stuff wrt efficiency in transport and urban-planning that needs to happen will be de-atomising and will happen in concert with more people being guaranteed basic needs. I don’t even know, for example, if younger people are going to perceive cars being vastly less common or important as a downgrade in living standard – if it’s also happening alongside real earnings doubling and the obliteration of enforced precarity, there’s no chance it will.
Children doing better than their parents did is probably the greatest agent of social healing there’s ever been.
It’s too late for Millennials, and maybe even Gen Z to do even as well as their parents did – they’ll be poorer on average until they die. But, if we do beat climate change (and eco-fascism) by proxy of defeating the oligarchy, our children will do better than we have, and that force is powerful both ways. It’s not just the feeling of the child going on to live a better life than the parent did – it’s that combined with the parent having won a better future for their children.
Hypothetically, let’s say you did, and let’s say one the posters on that Canucks blog laid a savage yet hilarious burn on you.
Would you then threaten him with legal action and tell him “you better get a lawyer”??
Genuinely curious, asking for myself
Isn’t it exactly what they are currently doing with Bear?
Matthews is a great player, but he’s hyped up beyond belief.
I truly do not get how anyone with a straight face could say he is as good as McDavid, better than McDavid, or even “a little behind” McDavid. Matthews isn’t even Draisaitl good.
Overall, McDavid > Draisaitl >> Matthews
This season, thus far imo, Draisaitl > McDavid >> Matthews
Yeti,
I’m not arguing anything. I’m just pointing out things that have happened (that follow-up studies weren’t new data, but the applying of models to the data) and that will happen (new data).
I don’t expect to convince anyone on this issue here on a hockey blog. Do you?
Have a good night, Yeti, I have no hard feelings (if that isn’t clear). Hope you don’t too.
The point of the ‘one or more of these premises are false’ outcome is to determine which one is. You’ve named some factors. Which of the premise(s) are wrong because of them?
Also, on Jones, if you aren’t splitting the performance as third pairing from the performance alongside Larsson the analysis is near worthless. It was quite literally the last thing you’re supposed to do with young defensemen.
Me too. Koskinen and Neal (based on the reports out of Calgary).
I don’t go to a Canucks blog and crap on their rug daily
Well that’s simply not true. Follow up studies were unable to confirm the results of that study and point to strong mythological questions about how they model the data. So it’s an outlier. But even if we accept it, the lead author of the paper says explicitly that the study does not negate global warming in any way, simply that – if his calculations are correct – Antarctic ice loss is not the primary driver of sea level rise. So god knows what you’re trying to argue.
Wait, what? MN is the 30th place team!
However, the one guy who said that Matthews has more abilities than Drai so he’d take him on a game by game basis but would take Draisaitl over 82 games as he’d have more impact.
I’m sorry. But Drai has more puck battle strength and better passing ability than Matthews, while also having a good shot. He also can play with McDavid, or without. I’d say he definitely has more abilities than Matthews, while Matthews does indeed have maybe a better shot.