This is a game the Oilers should win, but strange things happen when teams are desperate. The Minnesota Wild enter the game with a 2-6-0 record and are 18-32 goal differential. Oilers fans can relate, but Edmonton needs to hammer a weak team like the Wild if the team is to make the playoffs.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.
- New Lowetide: Assessing the early season progress of Oilers’ defence and goaltending
- New Jonathan Willis: A rare success during Edmonton’s long rebuild, why Oscar Klefbom is the model for finishing Oilers’ blue line
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s impressive Liiga performance headlines Oilers prospects this week
- Lowetide: Oilers recall Sam Gagner to bolster offensive depth, option Gaetan Haas
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers afford to pursue Taylor Hall in free agency?
- Lowetide: There are many similarities between this year’s Oilers team after seven and the 2016-17 team that made the playoffs. Similarities, differences and the work that needs to be done.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘That was pretty sick’: What teammates and opponents are saying about Connor McDavid’s latest goal
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I’m gonna bring a bigger bag with me’: Oilers rookies learn about life on the road in the NHL
- Jonathan Willis: A deep dive on the Oilers’ bottom six, which needs to produce more offence
- Lowetide: Ethan Bear’s early success with the Oilers and what it might mean at the trade deadline
- Jonathan Willis: How well are the solutions to key Oilers weaknesses working?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Oscar Klefbom playing tough minutes with inexperienced partners — and looking good doing it
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
OILERS IN OCTOBER
- Oilers in October 2015: 3-7-0, six points; goal differential -7
- Oilers in October 2016: 7-2-1, 15 points; goal differential +9
- Oilers in October 2017: 3-6-1, seven points; goal differential -11
- Oilers in October 2018: 6-3-1, 13 points; goal differential -1
- Oilers in October 2019: 7-1-1, 15 points, goal differential +10
The current Oilers are the best McDavid Oilers based on record, but need a win to stay ahead of the 2016-17 playoff group. Notice the 2018 team pushing now, that club would continue to push until the Klefbom-Russell injury in the same game a year ago.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (3-1-0)
- At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
- At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 7-1-1, 15 points after 9 games
I’m torn about this game. It should be a win, but the Oilers are 7-1-1 and the Wild are 2-6-0. One team is going to bring a great effort, the other is playing for its professional life. NHL players who are on losing teams often see their NHL careers end. Ask the 2009-10 Oilers.
OILERS 2019-20
My article for The Athletic today (here) has some interesting details about Ethan Bear’s handling (courtesy Puck IQ) and I wonder what kind of transition to the NHL we might see from William Lagesson. You know, last year Lagesson and Caleb Jones had the better season (I had all three men inside the top dozen Oilers prospects in the summer) and it’s possible Lagesson will quickly adjust ala Bear.
Jones’ speed and Bear’s passing ability are top quality skills, and give each man an advantage when it comes to making the NHL grade. Bear is playing successfully in the NHL this season, and Jones had a nice run last year. In fact, if you break out his minutes with and without Adam Larsson (meaning the elite minutes) you get an interesting comparison to Bear:
Jones-Larsson
133 minutes, 43.4 Corsi for, 5-11 goals for
Kevin Gravel-Jones:
66 minutes, 55.5 Corsi for, 2-2 goals for
Jones-Matt Benning:
39 minutes, 57.3 Corsi for, 3-3 goals for
Playing depth minutes in 2018-19, Jones was well above 50 percent in possession. The Larsson minutes were too much, but that’s a helluva leap. Interesting to look at that line compared to Bear’s current run with Nurse via Puck IQ and the ‘elite’ category.
Lagesson doesn’t have Jones’ speed and does not have Bear’s passing acumen. However, his 24 even-strength points led Condors blue a year ago, and his five-on-five goal differential (48-37) also impressed. I hope he plays this evening, and gets 20-25 games during 2019-20.
UPDATES ON BROBERG AND BOUCHARD
Corey Pronman has a piece out on prospects across the globe, with an emphasis on those who have impressed. There is Oilers content.
SAM GAGNER
Gagner’s recall is recognition of a need for third-line scoring, and I expect we’ll see the veteran at some point this week. I’ve been thinking about who he might replace in the lineup, and my guess is Patrick Russell on the fourth line. My idea has Markus Granlund and Gagner sharing faceoffs (each taking his strong side) and Tomas Jurco hanging out on LW. We might see it tonight.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy Tuesday morning on the show, beginning at 10 this morning on TSN1260. We’ll be joined by prospect insider Simon Boisvert at 10:20, we’ll chat Lagesson’s potential and early returns on Bear. Andrew Peard and Corey Graham will pop in to talk Oil Kings at 11, and Sean Woodley from TSN1150 and RaptorsHQ will talk Raptors as the NBA season begins. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
There is no limit on buyouts.
The limit is retained contracts – can only retain on 3 contracts at a time.
I didn’t hear anything about that on the broadcast last night but they already had a bit of the flu bug a few weeks ago and McDavid normally gets sick around this time of year – and when I say “normally”, I mean “always”.
Oh, don’t be sorry – I couldn’t care at all, post how you wish – just wasn’t sure if you were aware of the quote function and choosing not to use it.
Okay I’m triggered. South America is in the western hemisphere.
The best look at the bottom six (remember when I talked about digging deep on the last few years of team’s depth scoring – not by points by players but by GF/60?) is this:
McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins off the ice, at 5v5: 0.34 GF/60, 1.52 SH%
Last two seasons combined, it was 1.27/60 / / 4.43 SH%
So, the regression is obviously coming, but they’re already in a hole. Special teams and goaltending – and the Nuge line being way better, way way better – can power through it, but it’s such an insane weakness that it’d be pretty easy to shore up to like 25th instead of 31st or whatever. This is what happens when you give up before you start on bottom six scoring, never liked that move and have been sounding the alarm all summer and all fall when Marody and Benson and Jones got cut early.
The most hot girls per capita in the Western Hemisphere.
third line is abysmal. Preseason ‘buzz’ was a complete wash out.
This game felt like the first regular season game after a long, confidence building pre-season. If the top guys don’t cash, expect losses. The story we knew coming in. There were some bright spots, but they are still too sparse to get excited about.
The TOI is about the only thing you have to look at to get a feel for where the team is right now.
Klefbom over 25 mins, Russel with over 20 mins. Rookie Bear with 20+. Manning is on the roster for some reason. Helper forwards are non-existent beyond James Neal (with small sample shoutout to P. Russel).
I’d say they don’t match up well against this Minnesota squad on paper, but that only makes me sad inside.
Hopefully they can learn something from a game like this and continue on in a constructive way. Powerplay success needs to be made a top level priority. It is the easiest way to scrape by in this league. I personally hate the road this leads down as far as how a hockey team should play, but with this roster, it will be a necessity. They need to become Alain Vigneault’s Canucks *shudder*, without becoming Alain Vigneault’s Canucks.
—-
Random Youtubing brought me to this…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cWFbRJm41E
Barzal says he talked to 27 teams before the draft and the Islanders weren’t one of them. Bizarre. Seems like a good kid. Sad he isn’t an Oiler today.
Alright! I am about to blow e’rybodies minds here with my analytical skills.
Utilizing my inferior mathematical abilities this equates to either a 20th place team (if you everything up and divide by 4)…. or if you used my proprietary algorithm, so I cannot disclose anymore information related to the methodology, this is a 16th place team…..
Like LT, my preseason prediction came to 88pts. Perhaps this early season success nudges them into the 90’s, but the low shot totals and lack of depth scoring will negate every good thing that 97 & 29 bring to this roster.
Don’t get me wrong, the sky is not falling in my world, this is the same as it ever was. This start has been awesome. The difference for me is the prospects ARE coming, but not this year, not really. With the 2020 Draft being a bumper crop there is finally a light at the end of the tunnel. I have high expectations for this team in 2020-20, but for me this year, “All the points can go away, if we get a shot a Lafreniere”
Good question. You watch other teams and they seem to create plays where they get the puck to an open man in or near the slot for a decent shot. We get the puck in the corner and it’s either a loss of possession or a shot from the back end.
The dreaded low-to-high offense. It was a Tmac staple from having actual talented offensive D me thinks, but it also predates him by my memory.
Hall-RNH-Eberle weren’t bad off the cycle, Eberle’s best years he was a force getting to the dangerous ice in the slot and finishing player
JimmyV1965,
That would certainly explain the results we’ve seen considering the top line plays nearly half the game. It certainly isn’t sustainable. I wonder if tonight’s result is the built up debt of overplaying that line.
Neil is an incredible shooter, but he doesn’t really drive play or move the play forward effectively. The second line needs someone who can help Nuge create the scoring chances for Neil.
IMO there’s only one way to build a bottom six and that’s draft and develop. Free agent signings don’t work because you’re inevitably signing someone for $1 mill, from a team that didn’t want to retain that player. You can probably trade for one or two, but draft and develop seems like the bottom line solution. Hopefully Marody, Benson and Yamo will be part of that solution this year.
Boy they looked BAD. So bad that I wonder if there’s an illness going through the room. Or is it the drop off after a high level game against the Jets? The Wild made them look pathetic and the Wild are a bottom 5 team. Goes to show you can’t take nights off and expect to keep it close.
McD looks to face a defensive line at the blue line when he has the puck. Gotta adjust…..
McSorley33,
The Corsica player ratings aren’t perfect, but they give a decent reality check.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations/
We have the #3 top line (dragged down by Kassian).
2nd line is 21st
3rd line is 31 st.
4rth line is somehow 23rd.
Thanks. This is good news, lol.
hunter1909,
Email sent.
I RARELY comment but have been kicking around awhile. *clap clap* Happy to contribute any way I can.
GOilers!
Roster construction.
This year is Archibald, Granlund, Sheehan…etc, etc
Last year, Rieder, Rattie, Spooner, Cave etc,etc..
Previous years…Hendricks, Pakaranen, Lander
Klinkhammer, Boyd Gordon, Matt Fraser, etc, etc
Ryan Jones, Joensuu, Will Acton, etc, etc,
Would it surprise anyone if Chiasson, Archibald and Sheehan were out of the NHL
in 24 months……
This is not true. A team can have as many buyouts as they desire. The limit of three pertains to retained salary. One can only retain salary on three contracts.
1. I’m not a systems guy. Would love an answer from someone who is.
Overall, the Oilers have long lacked enough actual NHL players in their prime.
Also, the Oilers have long valued the defensive defenseman. I always thought that Kevin Lowe wanted hard nosed dmen cut from the same cloth.
Reinhart… Staios… Larsson… Nick Schultz
When they’ve had the rare defenseman good at transitioning the puck, they usually undervalue them.
Gilbert… Petry…
As a consequence, the Oilers are terrible at the transition game.
With Bear, they almost look like a normal hockey team at times.
Scoring chances off controlled entries and rush plays are generally much higher than on dump ins.
Does anyone who has a deeper understanding of systems see why the Oilers have so much trouble scoring 5v5 if not on the rush?
Multiple GMs, multiple coaches. multiple players. Seems odd. Water?
Both Peter Chiarelli and Ken Holland have a history of overpaying guys because of loyalty and it’s never worked out. We were a bottom 10 team with him last year, was he instrumental to our success?
Look at the Toi/g and on the fly starts/60.
Benning is averaging under 14minutes per game all situations. Him and Manning are hovering around 60 on the fly starts /60.
Benning is also sparsely used on the Pk… 39 seconds per game.
I don’t think Tippett sees Benning as more than a third pairing defenseman.
Based on his utilization, I’d be shocked if that changes barring injury.
Chiasson wasn’t one of the players not following the system – in fact he was which reinforces the point – be a good guy, have a good attitude, play the right way and you’re valued. Turning around a poorly run business is painful and takes steps.
Long an axiom for well run teams.
I think you missed my point.
OriginalPouzar,
I think we have to become more accustomed to Holly and Tip slow-playing young players. Call ups aren’t going to get thrown into the roster on Day 1, they’ll be given every chance to succeed by getting them used to the team’s daily routine first, getting a practice or two in, giving them time in the dressing room, press box views of the NHL game, film breakdown of said games,..
Time to be comfortable and hungry, rather than rushed and nervous.
That’s my theory anyways. We’ll see if they exercise the same patience with other call-ups and it proves correct.
I like Tippett.
He showed some savvy in limiting Connors and especially Leon’s minutes in a game down 3 to start the second period.
Leon played under 20, that’s barely enough to warm up for a guy used to 25 minutes.
I don’t know, man. My litmus test for a bad contract is whether or not you could trade the player 10 minutes after you signed the contract. My gut feeling / gestalt is that you would have had to add to move the Chiasson contract the second it was signed.
The contract won’t likely be bought out because, as someone recently pointed out to me, there’s a max of three buyouts you can have on the books. The Sekera and Pouliot buyouts both run into next year.
Bigger fish to fry.
Overpaying for ‘good in the room,’ ‘intangibles,’ past heaters, want to be here, declining vets, and fourth liners is a loser’s proposition.
It’s long been an axiom that smart teams don’t pay fourth liners $2 m annual contracts.
I heard on the broadcast a few days ago that a flu was going thru the dressing room. Missed tonight’s game , but it seemed to me both Leon and Connor seemed to run out of gas easily. Possible explanation for dip in performance?
Anyone else hear anything or am I grasping for a rationale?
Sorry I must have missed that …….just my signature.
I have made the change
This seemed like a no-brainer prior to Russell being moved up but Tippett has give Benning zero at bat up the lineup even through exhibition.
Persson could be back any game now given the 7-10 day timeline.
For some Oilers fans, Oilers losing makes things feel better.
I would move Benning up beside Klefbomb and Russell back beside Lagesson, who should be a good fit.
At least try it for a game and see if the results improve.
Krusty got given a ton of minutes tonight in part because to not do so would’ve meant playing Manning more.
All Tipp needs to do is ask Lowetide(That’s the Royal Lowetide in case anyone needs to know)…
Lowetide’s understands how the Oilers are lazy entitled babies, undeserving of any extra kindness or consideration from it’s perceived reality from the players – who must by now think of management as a bunch of dribbling morons lol
Oilers should have bag skates built into their schedule, so management can sometimes cancel these so long as the team’s playing acceptably – otherwise it’s Out on the Ice!
They used a one man forecheck with a high guy who would join in if F1 generated enough chaos. The Wild played pretty similar to Chicago, with an aggressive press on the puck carrier, limiting time and space. That looks like the game plan to beat us. We’ve struggled from the top of the line-up to the bottom when forced to make ultra quick plays.
Part of the reason is that to beat such a heavy press, probably the easiest strategy is adopt a passive trap, make simple puck plays to safety, and wait for mistakes, over-extensions, turnovers… a real boring patient style that isn’t in the Oiler playbook.
But the main story is we lacked the energy to match the Wild’s level.
And we wasted a helluva performance by Smith too.
Of note, the Oilers are in 2nd place in the NHL and 1st place in the Western Conference and this terrible stretch of hockey has led to a 1-1-1 record over three (2-1-1 over 4).
Bulging Twine,
This was going through my mind all game. Tip seems to want to avoid practices after travel days. Not so sure why on this one with the short hop, but maybe he was just trying to mix up the routine.
I think he probably regrets it now though.
They haven’t done it often but when they have it has cost them.
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OILERS LOSE AGAIN OILERS LOSE AGAIN OILERS LOSE AGAIN OILERS LOSE AGAIN
Reider scores and has more goals than the oilers bottom 6 combined ?♂️?♂️?♂️?♂️
Kenny Holland himself could not have made a better October Schedule for the Oilers.
60 minute plane ride from YWG to MSP.
We need different excuses for November when we play good teams and play back to back games .
Reina del Cid is worth checking out
Toni Lindgren is a terrific guitar player
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GZfUDM5SWo
Not really, it was pretty consistent with the “new NHL”
Back check each other to death, stack up the net front 5 man box in your own zone, shot block everything, board battles have degenerated into stick waving fencing matches.
5 men behind the puck, hook, hold & collapse on everything then pound the puck square.
Just awful to watch even at 4v4
– Oil have been playing every other day for 16 days including 5 plane rides.
– will be interesting to see how they handle this.
– they have another game two nights from now after a 6th plane ride then have 3 days off before another brutal stretch of every other day amd 3 in 4 and lots of plane rides through time zones
– we should have a pretty good idea in 30 days what this team might be IMO.
– To be an eastern conference team travelling between Ottawa Toronto New York for 3 teams Philly Washington Chicago Detroit Montreal for much of season. No time zone changes. Easy flights (or buses) all less than 90 minutes.
Fixed
thanks for the tip
Pro Tip
Put some cash on the Canucks.
They’re killing possession.
I think I need an original six team to cheer for the nights the Oilers are terrible. I’m choosing the RANGERS ! ( lost to arizona oh well)
On the other hand, a 3 nothing loss is worth just as much as a 4-3 loss in a close came.
I’m glad you find positives in trolling everyone needs to be good at something
Regression to the meat is a bitch.
+1 might have a point there. wanted to ‘get them sharp’ but did not work. Time for the George Kostanza style of management. ! Try the opposite.. sleep in, go to the museum or hang out.. think of everything BUT the game.