Catch the Blue Train

The postgame comments blamed the effort and the energy, but for me those things obscure the actual truth: The Edmonton Oilers don’t have enough good NHL players. Same as it ever was, although James Neal and Ethan Bear and Mike Smith have given the team added arsenal. If I told you that the only men who would be with the Oilers two years from now are 97, 29, 93, Neal, Kassian, Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Bear and one of the goalies, would you be shocked to your shoes? No. I don’t think you would be shocked at all. I listed 10 players, less than half the roster. So why are we blaming effort when we all know talent is the problem? Beats me.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.

  • New Lowetide: Oilers first-round pick Philip Broberg increases his role; Condors’ Caleb Jones looks NHL-ready
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I don’t think anyone’s feeling comfortable’: Oilers’ Holland pleased but cautious amid early improvements.
  • Lowetide: Josh Archibald’s injury and limited replacements available puts some pressure on Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 reasons why the Oilers passed their first true test of the season
  • Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and James Neal are leading a quality Oilers second line
  • Lowetide: Assessing the early season progress of Oilers’ defence and goaltending
  • Jonathan Willis: A rare success during Edmonton’s long rebuild, why Oscar Klefbom is the model for finishing Oilers’ blue line
  • Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s impressive Liiga performance headlines Oilers prospects this week
  • Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers afford to pursue Taylor Hall in free agency?
  • Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS IN OCTOBER

  • Oilers in October 20154-8-0, eight points; goal differential -7
  • Oilers in October 2016: 8-3-1, 17 points; goal differential +7
  • Oilers in October 2017: 4-7-1, nine points; goal differential -9
  • Oilers in October 2018: 7-4-1, 15 points; goal differential +2
  • Oilers in October 2019: 8-3-1, 17 points, goal differential +5

The Oilers played poorly in the first 12 minutes, then started to push. Goalie Mike Smith took a shot in the jewels and was never the same. I was surprised at the lack of criticism in deciding to let him continue, there was very little postgame (that I heard). I like Dave Tippett, think he’s done a solid plus job so far, but that’s a move one could reasonably question. Smith did not look right at any time after the shot that felled him.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

  • At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (3-1-0)
  • At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
  • At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)(Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 8-3-1, 17 points after 12 games

I think many fans will fret over this last week, but for me this is what might have been expected all along. The 7-1-0 start skewed the mind, while the recent 1-2-1 run may be more in keeping with this team’s talent level. If Edmonton collects three points for every four games now to the end of the season, the final point total will be 70. I expect this team has more talent in them than that, but it’s also true that early run was unsustainable. I picked this team to finish with 88 points. They’ll get there with a 70, 34-33-3 run. I think that’s a fair reflection of this team. All numbers five-on-five unless noted and via Natural Stat Trick.

LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 11:21, going 10-11 Corsi, 6-7 shots, 0-1 goals and 4-1 HDSC. The line was solid . Played 6:22 (1-1) against Aleksandr Barkov.

Leon Draisaitl had a goal, two shots, one HDSC and had an impact on the game. Connor McDavid had an assist, four shots and three HDSC, I thought he was terrific and a little unlucky. Zack Kassian had the good boots, had a HDSC (five for the line) and a takeaway. I don’t think this line was the problem.

LINE 2 Alex Chiasson-Nuge-James Neal played 7:28, going 7-6 Corsi, 1-3 shots, no goals and 1-1 HDSC. Played 2:27 against Barkov.

Alex Chiasson didn’t get much done, but Nuge drew two penalties and grabbed a PP assist. Solid in the dot as well. James Neal grabbed a PP goal, he now has 10 on the year. That draft pick is gone. This trio got more clean air than usual (Barkov was matched most often against 97 and Sheahan), it’s fair to expect more under those circumstances.

LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 6:55, going 8-6 Corsi, 4-4 shots, 0-2 goals and 0-1 HDSC. Played 3:40 against Aleksandr Barkov, interesting Tippett chose this line to match up against Barkov when he decided to go away from power v. power.

Jujhar Khaira had a good look but again couldn’t deliver, Riley Sheahan had two HDSC’s and for me is the best player in the bottom six. Patrick Russell wasn’t overly noticeable. At some point I think Ken Holland may have to change this line a little, maybe run Tomas Jurco and Kailer Yamamoto to see if possession (and offense) improves.

LINE 4 Tomas Jurco-Markus Granlund-Sam Gagner played 6:24, going 4-7 Corsi, 1-6 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-0 HDSC. Granlund played 1:42 against Barkov.

Tomas Jurco had a HDSC and a takeaway, he’s easily one of the eight best wingers on the team. Markus Granlund had a takeaway but needs to do more. Sam Gagner was quiet on the evening but he does move the puck to good spaces.

PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 18:37 together, 18-13 Corsi, 8-10 shots, 1-4 goals and 6-1 HDSC. That’s an impressive stat set, one guesses you don’t see the goals and HDSC numbers for the same pair often. Played 7:42 (1-1) against the Barkov line. Six offensive and six defensive faceoff zone starts.

Darnell Nurse had a shot, two HDSC and was physical against Panthers throughout the game. I didn’t like how easily he gave up the blue line on the first goal, but suspect that’s a shot most goalies (and Smith when healthy and focused) grabs. Ethan Bear had an assist and a giveaway, which led to a goal. This is rookies. This pairing took the golden sombrero in plus minus.

PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Kris Russell played 18:34, going 17-20 Corsi, 7-8 shots, no goals and 2-1 HDSC. Eight offensive and three defensive faceoff zone starts. Played 5:19 against Barkov line.

Oscar Klefbom had two shots and three takeaways, plus a couple of giveaways. He had calm feet and skated miles, for me this pairing, despite being the second duo, executed better than the top pair. Kris Russell had a couple of stellar defensive plays, and he drew a penalty. I don’t think this pairing at five-on-five was the problem.

PAIRING THREE Brandon Manning and Matt Benning played 9:30, going 7-9 Corsi, 2-7 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-3 HDSC. One offensive and five defensive faceoff zone starts. Played 2:10 against Barkov.

Brandon Manning had one giveaway and a takeaway. Matt Benning had some looks and passed the puck well, but wasn’t noticeable.

GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 10 of 13, .769. He took a rocket off the sprocket and couldn’t breathe for a time. Been there. In the first several seconds, he would have awaited, no welcomed death. That would be followed by a cold sweat all over his body, then a light breeze would pass by, informing him he would live. He would have laughed nervously about have survived such a traumatic experience, and then assured all around him he was fine. I don’t think he should have been allowed to start the second period.

GOALIE Mikko Koskinen stopped 13 of 15, .867 and that included several HDSC. Why they didn’t start him is a mystery to me. That was the play here.

OILERS 2019-20 [2018-19]

  • Corsi for five-on-five: 48.05 [47.98]
  • Fenwick five-on-five: 48.59 [47.75]
  • Shots for five-on-five: 48.51 [47.59]
  • Goal differential five-on-five: 46.67 [45.06]
  • Shooting percentage five-on-five: 8.08 [7.66]
  • Save percentage five-on-five: 91.30 [91.52]
  • PDO five-on-five: 994 [992]

This year’s Oilers are a little better in Corsi, Fenwick, Shots, Goal Differential, Shooting Percentage. Last year’s Oil were slightly better in save percentage and PDO. You’re wondering about McDavid on and off at five-on-five?

  • Connor McDavid ON five-on-five: 14-7 67.0 [77-75 50.7]
  • Connor McDavid OFF five-on-five: 7-17 29.0 [69-103 40.1]

After a reasonable start the ON/OFF numbers have corrected and then galloped past last season. Let’s have a look at RNH on and off, I’m going to take the McDavid minutes out of each season.

  • Nuge ON five-on-five: 6-4 60.0 [29-37 43.9]
  • Nuge OFF five-on-five: 15-20 42.9 [117-141 45.3]

It’s early, and this is a small sample, but the second line does appear to be better than the truck stop baked beans poor Nuge had to play with a year ago. By the way, McDavid+Nuge on is 20-11 (64.5) and McDavid+Nuge off is 1-13 (7 percent). Lordy.

CORSI FOR FIVE-ON-FIVE (FWD)

  1. Alex Chiasson 52.55
  2. Tomas Jurco 52.02
  3. James Neal 51.84
  4. Nuge 51.03
  5. Zack Kassian 50.3
  6. Leon Draisaitl 49.6
  7. Connor McDavid 49.4
  8. Patrick Russell 47.53
  9. Markus Granlund 45.96
  10. Riley Sheahan 44.19
  11. Josh Archibald 43.70
  12. Gaetan Haas 43.48
  13. Sam Gagner 42.86
  14. Joakim Nygard 42.67
  15. Jujhar Khaira 41.85
  16. Colby Cave 26.19

All numbers NST. McDavid’s true line in the sand for the No. 1 trio is likely Kassian, 97 and 29 go roster walkabout and it’s a drag. Ken Holland may not want to recall Cooper Marody, Kailer Yamamoto or Tyler Benson before Christmas, but it would be a good idea to have a long look at the guys who are running in the 40’s here. Sheahan isn’t coming out of the lineup and Granlund is also a centre on this team (via Dave Tippett) but wingers not named Jurco who play bottom six need to send pucks in the right direction more often. Goals may come as a result.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE!

We’re back! It’ll be a busy Monday starting at 10, TSN1260. Chris Meaney from The Athletic Fantasy will drop in to chat at 10:20, we’ll talk NFL weekend and the flurry of recent trades. Michael Bradburn from The Score will talk World Series (the Nats had a bad weekend) and Jason Gregor will pop in just after 11 to chat Oilers and Eskimos. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

191 Responses to "Catch the Blue Train"

  1. jtblack says:

    Respect the Honest Assessment. It’s bang on. Not enough talent throughout the Lineup.

    The NHL is funny. If a player takes a hard hit to the Head they have to get assessed before being allowed to continue playing. But take a 100 MPH Rocket to the N*ts and you are allowed to Play On!

  2. jp says:

    1-13. Good grief.

    And the Corsi gets under 45% in a real hurry after the top 2 lines.

    I think we have to call having a 1st AND 2nd line progress, but that bottom 6 is just such a mess so far.

    I agree that some sort of intervention (airlift from Bakersfield, trade, both) needs to be made there before.

    Also, they’re bad, but not THAT bad. Hopefully there’s some sort of correction coming towards being marginally useful. Man.

  3. v4ance says:

    jtblack:
    Respect the Honest Assessment. It’s bang on.Not enough talent throughout the Lineup.

    The NHL is funny.If a player takes a hard hit to the Head they have to get assessed before being allowed to continue playing.But take a 100 MPH Rocket to the N*ts and you are allowed to Play On!

    I watched the game on PVR and after Smith got his “package deal”, I was hoping Tippett would give him a long ride on the bench. I know the coach wants to let a battler play thru it but it was a 50/50 decision that I wished would have gone the other way.

    The next time the red balls start rolling, I hope pre-crime unit is deployed and we avoid the murderous results.

  4. who says:

    Lots of squirming going on right now but I still feel good about this season.
    Who’s going to be here to start the 21-22 season?
    My guess is 97,29,18,77,25,74,19. I hope 93,44 and 6 are re signed but it’s far from a sure thing. The good news is that we will have actual NHL prospects filling some roster holes by then.
    In fact there has been a lot of good news to start this season. And very few disappointments.
    Think about it.
    What did we know to start the season?
    We knew we had 3 good young dmen on good contracts. We knew we had 97, 29 and 93. We knew we had a good prospect pool with several high ceiling d prospects.
    Have any of these areas been dissapointments? Maybe the Larsson injury? But the performance of all these players has met, or exceeded, my expectations.
    And there have been 3 positive developments. I know it’s early but;
    We appear to have a solid goaltending tandem and if Koskinen continues to play like this, with proper rest, that contract going to look fine.
    Ethan Bear looks like a solid NHL dman. Maybe even a top 4 puck moving one. Who saw that coming?
    James Neal looks like he still has a little gas left in the goal scoring tank. He is not going to drive play, and that line needs that player on the other wing, but he can still make plays and finish chances in the ozone. I was just happy we would be able to buy him out next summer, so this is a huge bonus.
    Be happy Oiler fans. Did you really expect more this year?

  5. leadfarmer says:

    Goal for this season is to acquire a legit 3rd line player. Then try to get another one in the offseason.
    As long as the 4th line pks I dont really care if they dont accomplish much, but that third line should have some players that are a threat to put up 30 points at least.
    I give Holland a pass this year being new, not having cap space and getting rid of Lucic. But he should have enough cap space especially that he should be able to move Russell after July 1.

  6. Jethro Tull says:

    Ya see LT, I have it on good authority from people here that there’s nothing wrong with the roster as we’re at the top of the NHL. You simply CANNOT argue with that logic.

    For myself, I like constant assessment – why is our record like it is? Why are these numbers skewed? Why did Ken sign a bunch of basically the same players when he could have been more selective and signed fewer but better talent and filled in from the AHL?

    We’ve seen this team when Connor and Drai haven’t been their usual selves. We’ve seen this team when the goalies don’t do so well. And not in the same games, either.

    Ken should use his acumen to get replacements for the players he’s going to bring up from the Bake if he isn’t going to actually get an NHL caliber bottom 6 player.

    He’s lucked out with Kassian playing well on the top line. Chiasson hasn’t had a shot on goal in 3 games, and it gets worse, unbelievably, from there. Even PDO has turned her fickle back on us.

    When we win, we win well, but when we lose, it’s abhorrent. Awful.

    Haas has to go, he’s in the way of better. Same Granlund. Those are good cup of coffee minutes. You could literally pick up the whole of the top two lines of the Condors and use them as the Oilers bottom six and they wouldn’t be as bad.

    We have to ask, why? Is Connor and Drai THAT good that the rest of the team just subconsciously switch off? Do other teams have an actual McDavid shut down line that just does damage limitation then runs their power against our really weaks? They simply can’t be this bad.

  7. Reja says:

    We need to win 2 out of 3 on this trip. We’re 1st PP 5th PK if we stay top 10 in both categories we will make the playoffs.

  8. G Money says:

    I have a little utility that pulls every line combination and every defensive pair that has played for any given team this season, and generates a quick CF/DFF/GF summary.

    Bear in mind that GF% numbers are always volatile even nearing a full season, and 12 games in the shot metrics are still not particularly reliable. So look at these as pretty much entirely descriptive at this point.

    The top line this year is its usual killer self: Drai/McD/Kass are 52% / 55% / 72%.

    As LT points out, the second line is where things get interesting. It’s basically Nuge/Neal and then the third wheel is either Jurco or Chiasson.

    NNC are 58% / 59% / 50%.

    NNJ are 56% / 53% / 75%.

    From a historical (Oilers) perspective, those are incredible second line numbers.

    But the bad news remains the bad news. The third line (my designation is based on TOI) is built on a Khaira/Sheahan pair, partnered with either PRussell or Archibald.

    KSP are 46% / 32% / 0%.

    KSA are 57% (hey!) / 41% (oh) / 0% (gack).

    Pretty much horrawful.

    There isn’t much of a semblance of a consistent fourth line. If you had to put a fourth line in the sand, it’s built around Nygard and Granlund.

    But not only is the TipBlender highly active, it’s also often the case that it is shored up by one of the top six players.

    The only line that shows some hope is NG with Chiasson: 55% / 70% / nan (0/0).

    Pretty much every other combo that doesn’t have one of the top 6 players on it ranges from slightly underwater to crushed into a fine powder.

    One of my pre-season hopes was that Holland’s scattershot approach to bottom 6 players might cobble together a B6 that wasn’t a disaster.

    So far, Jurco appears to be a legit addition (and at age 26, might be a legit medium-term positive), but the rest, like far too many in Alberta right now, just ain’t workin’.

  9. Munny says:

    G Money,

    Love you, G.

  10. JimmyV1965 says:

    I have no issues with the players Holland signed for the bottom six this year. At least they can PK. We no longer have to play McDavid on the PK or Kassian, who was awful on the PK last year. If you fill out the bottom six with $1 mill free agents you are getting tremendously flawed players. That’s the nature of the beast. On the bright side, it’s easy to move on from these guys if someone better shows up.

    It might be more important to improve the second line rather than the bottom six. At least there’s potential to have a decent second line if we can swap out Chiasson. Didn’t realize he’s had 2 shots on net in the last four games and 0 shots in three of those games. Geez, that’s frickin awful.

  11. 12 percent body fat says:

    Khaira, Chiasson are replacement players. Why do the oilers do this? Multi year deals for players that can be replaced for league minimum on one year deals. Just like Russel. They need to go. Also when is the Benning experiment over. Perssons and Lagesson have to be better than him and Manning.

    I have no issues with what Holland did this summer. Instead of taking on crappy contracts for one or two years he is slow playing and waiting out the cap issue. Kids dominate in AHL before they come up. Fill in the gaps on one year replacement players. Dont kill any cap room like Chiarelli kept doing. Next year we should have money coming off, the prospects are one year more mature and we can look at going deep into the playoff.

  12. leadfarmer says:

    G Money,

    Woodguy letting you out of the basement for a day.
    Good to hear from you

  13. Ribs says:

    G Money: I have a little utility that pulls every line combination and every defensive pair that has played for any given team this season, and generates a quick CF/DFF/GF summary.

    Neat!

  14. Rafa Nadal says:

    12 percent body fat:
    Khaira, Chiasson are replacement players.Why do the oilers do this?Multi year deals for players that can be replaced for league minimum on one year deals.Just like Russel.They need to go.Also when is the Benning experiment over. Perssons and Lagesson have to be better than him and Manning.

    I have no issues with what Holland did this summer.Instead of taking on crappy contracts for one or two years he is slow playing and waiting out the cap issue. Kids dominate in AHL before they come up.Fill in the gaps on one year replacement players. Dont kill any cap room like Chiarelli kept doing.Next year we should have money coming off, the prospects are one year more mature and we can look at going deep into the playoff.

    Benning is a solid 3rd pairing guy. He shouldn’t be the whipping boy on this team.

  15. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    19/20
    EDM Goal Share after 12 games (8-3-1)

    Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
    McDavid On Ice 15-7 (68%)
    McDavid Off Ice 8-17 (32%)
    Net EV = -1

    Sp. Teams (PP+SH For–PK+SH Against)
    11-6
    Net ST +5

    Empty Net
    2-2
    Net EN = Even

    SO & PS
    1-1
    SO & PS = Even

    Net Goal Differential +4

  16. doctoreye says:

    Trade for Hall…….JP,Chiasson,Larsen,and whatever else NJ needs.This gives us two good scoring lines?…Hall good for 30 goals.Then we don’t need the bottom to score.

  17. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Further to G’s point:

    5v5 GF%
    97 & 29 (14-6) 70%
    97 or 29 alone (no 93 or each other) (0-3) 0%
    29 & 93 (1-0) 100%
    RNH without 97 or 29 (5-4) 55.6%

    Total combos of those 3: (20-13) 61%

    None of those 3 on: (1-11) 8.3%

    Total team (21-24) 47%

    8.3%

    That’s impossibly bad.

  18. 12 percent body fat says:

    Rafa Nadal,

    is he better than Lagesson Perssons or Jones. Not the last few days. Lets see what the others have?

  19. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    LT,

    While I agree that EDM lacks players the bottom 6 aren’t getting to the net at all and that *has* to be on them (and the coaches to some extent)

    Its one thing to not be able to finish.

    Its another to not get anywhere near the net with the puck.

    I urge everyone to look at the visual of this tweet by WheatnOil:

    https://twitter.com/WheatNOil/status/1188818187686539268

    When Sheahan is on the ice their offensive threat is 47% below league average with a giant blue hole near the net due to hardly any shots from scoring locations.

    When Granlund is on the ice their offensive threat is -28% below league average with a giant blue hole near the net due to hardly any shots from scoring locations.

    They can skate well enough to be in the NHL.

    They can damn well skate the puck towards the bloody net.

    Also,

    Bottom 6 rocking a 1.27 SH% (!!!!) and a .883 SV% at 5v5 for a 896 PDO.

    Regression (esp. for the SH%) has to be coming, but Lordy BaGordy.

    Then again when you look at their shot locations on Wheat’s tweet, they are shooting from ~2% SH areas.

    I can’t believe that this is them. As meh as they were before as players, they weren’t this bad.

  20. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    leadfarmer:
    G Money,

    Woodguy letting you out of the basement for a day.
    Good to hear from you

    Lock must of broke on the cage.

    Since he’s typing that means his hands got free so he probably took off the ball gag too.

  21. 12 percent body fat says:

    doctoreye,

    Agree, but wait it out until next year and sign him. Larsson, Russel, Chiasson, Khaira, Benning out. Manning, Gagner, Brodziak off the books. Kids should be ready.

    Benson Connor Kassian
    Hall Draisaitl Yamo
    Nygaard* Nuge Neal
    Gamberdella Marody Jurco*
    Replacment Replacement

    Klefbom Bouchard
    Nurse Bear
    Lagesson Perssons
    Jones

    *Player is replaceable.

  22. leadfarmer says:

    I know +/- has gone out of style
    But how the hell is Pageau +11 on the Sens
    and can we please get him here ASAP

    He can share a flight with Tierney while we are at it

  23. Reja says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    LT,

    While I agree that EDM lacks players the bottom 6 aren’t getting to the net at all and that *has* to be on them (and the coaches to some extent)

    Its one thing to not be able to finish.

    Its another to not get anywhere near the net with the puck.

    I urge everyone to look at the visual of this tweet by WheatnOil:

    https://twitter.com/WheatNOil/status/1188818187686539268

    When Sheahan is on the ice their offensive threat is 47% below league average with a giant blue hole near the net due to hardly any shots from scoring locations.

    When Granlund is on the ice their offensive threat is -28% below league average with a giant blue hole near the net due to hardly any shots from scoring locations.

    They can skate well enough to be in the NHL.

    They can damn well skate the puck towards the bloody net.

    Also,

    Bottom 6 rocking a 1.27 SH% (!!!!) and a .883 SV% at 5v5 for a 896 PDO.

    Regression (esp. for the SH%) has to be coming, but Lordy BaGordy.

    Then again when you look at their shot locations on Wheat’s tweet, they are shooting from ~2% SH areas.

    I can’t believe that this is them.As meh as they were before as players, they weren’t this bad.

    I watch Khaira and Sheahan cycle and cycle and more cycling before they lose the puck without going to the net like you stated or attempting a centring pass. The play always dies on their stick without ever having a chance for a lucky bounce off a defender, a skate, shin pad etc. It’s frustrating Holland has to find a 3rd line Centre via a trade (JP plus) or at least give Marody a honest chance.

  24. who says:

    Rafa Nadal: Benning is a solid 3rd pairing guy. He shouldn’t be the whipping boy on this team.

    I don’t think there should be any whipping boys on this team. And yet there seems to be some favorites on this blog.
    Russell, Khaira, Manning, Benning, Chiasson, Granlund, etc. Getting to be quite a list, isn’t it?
    Personally, I think Benning is paid too much for what he brings to the table, but good on him for carving out an NHL career.
    You could probably replace him with someone making a million less and not notice a difference.

  25. jtblack says:

    “None of those 3 on: (1-11) 8.3%”

    Is that Bad ?? Horrific? Unexplainable 😭

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    So it seems the Oilers have hit a rough patch with respect to the win/loss column and it appears it is magnifying the main deficiency of the team (which is very apparent).

    As discussed a few weeks ago, what the unbelievable start did, even though it was clearly unsustainable and was masking the main deficiency, is make it so that a rough patch or two doesn’t crater the season.

    The Oilers are still at the top of the standings and, if they continue to struggle in the next few games, which I hope they don’t, it still won’t crater the season.

    That is a wonderful thing.

    ———————————–

    Both Coach T and Holland have acknowledged the secondary/tertiary scoring issue in the last 24 and 48 hours. I am confidant that Holland is considering his options, both internally and externally.

    Thankfully the Oilers are at the top of the standings, yes, still, and Holland has the luxury of not panicking. If this continues for much longer I am confident he will do something but it will be a calculated move that makes sense and not a panic move. He is an experienced GM.

    ——————————–

    I wonder if Perssson will be back on this mini-road trip.

    As dicussed, Persson in isolation does not make an overly material difference but the combination of the following does:

    – Persson in with Klefbom at 2RD
    – Russell back to 3LD
    – Manning out of the lineup

    This provides simply better transition in the top 4 and Klefbom is a better hockey player with Persson than with Russell, we’ve seen this over the course of the season.

    Russell instead of Manning on the third pairing also makes it better.

    The aggregate of the above is material, in my opinion.

    I look forward to the back to back – I think the team will be upset and ready to go. I think its a good time for a couple road games.

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tough break for the Blues and Tarasenko – having shoulder surgery and will be re-evaluated in 5 months.

  28. v4ance says:

    James Mirtle @mirtle

    Flames waive Tobias Rieder.

    He’s gotten one goal already this year. Do we take the new and improved Reider back?!

  29. leadfarmer says:

    Reider being waived.
    Is he better than our Reiders?

  30. fishman says:

    v4ance:
    James Mirtle @mirtle

    Flames waive Tobias Rieder.

    He’s gotten one goal already this year.Do we take the new and improved Reider back?!

    I believe it was an empty net goal????? So NO!!!!!!

  31. LMHF#1 says:

    First live game of the regular season for me yesterday.

    It came down to one thing – they were sloppy. In their own zone…continually passing into the Panthers area of strength (the high middle) in the offensive zone…from the corners…just plain sloppy.

    You’re not going to win like that. And yet they STILL had the chances to come all the way back.

    Better than it’s been anyway…

  32. v4ance says:

    leadfarmer:
    Reider being waived.
    Is he better than our Reiders?

    *checks math* He would constitute ONE THIRD of our bottom 6 scoring at this pace!

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    GOALIE Mikko Koskinen stopped 13 of 15, .867 and that included several HDSC. Why they didn’t start him is a mystery to me. That was the play here.

    With the DET-CBJ back to back coming up Tues I think TIppett (correctly imo) wanted his best goalie to play the first and most winnable game to have the best chance to lock up those 2 points.

  34. v4ance says:

    fishman:

    Actually, you’re looking at this all wrong. Pick him up and he constitutes *checks math* ONE THIRD of our empty net goal scoring prowess! HOT! HOT! HOT!

  35. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: I think we have to call having a 1st AND 2nd line progress, but that bottom 6 is just such a mess so far.

    I took a lot of grief during the summer for having just that opinion. Man do I wish I was wrong then.

  36. Eh Team says:

    ArmchairGM: I took a lot of grief during the summer for having just that opinion. Man do I wish I was wrong then.

    That the bottom six would be an issue was pretty predictable. Probably not that they would be such a total mess. But the solution doesn’t appear to be to do the same thing and wait for different results.
    Our >50% chance of the playoffs won’t withstand much of a losing streak and what we are doing now isn’t sustainable.

    The immediate play would be to call up Yamamoto and stick him with Nuge and Neal and see what we have. Then Marody not far behind so that we have a 3C who has at least some offensive chops.

    And get Russell back to 3LD and Manning off of the ice. Either Persspn back or Jones or Bouchard to RD until Persson is ready to go.

  37. McSorley33 says:

    ArmchairGM: I took a lot of grief during the summer for having just that opinion. Man do I wish I was wrong then.

    You did.

    But many shared that opinion in the summer.

    For a lot of us – despite the won / loss record – the bottom 6 is performing exactly as we envisioned.

    Riley Sheahan not scoring? Apparently this is news.

  38. McSorley33 says:

    Why would the Coyotes just let Josh Archibald go?

  39. McSorley33 says:

    Marcus Granlund has been poor right from training camp.

    Even the local media can’t muster up positive stuff…..received yet another
    below average grade from the COH.

    Even Luke Gazic would sprinkle in a good game now and then.

    Say what you want about Granlund – but he has been viciously consistent

    None of these bets was going to pay off.

  40. vinotintazo says:

    Drai-97-Kassian
    Jurco-Nuge-Neal
    Kneeguard-Haas-Chia’s son
    PK-PK-PK

    Nurse-Bear
    Klef-Persson
    Russell-Benning

  41. vinotintazo says:

    we all thought that the bottom 6 could not be worse than last year. My god.

    I have high hopes for the Euros.

  42. Oilman99 says:

    The lack of top six talent results in Nuge and Neal playing with one hand tied behind their backs, Chiasson is not a top six player, but could really help the third line. Not sure Gagne’s puck sense wouldn’t help the second line even if he is half a step slower.

  43. G Money says:

    leadfarmer,
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m increasingly uncomfortable with the direction of this fanfic!

  44. ArmchairGM says:

    12 percent body fat:
    Khaira, Chiasson are replacement players.Why do the oilers do this?Multi year deals for players that can be replaced for league minimum on one year deals.Just like Russel.They need to go.Also when is the Benning experiment over. Perssons and Lagesson have to be better than him and Manning.

    I have no issues with what Holland did this summer.Instead of taking on crappy contracts for one or two years he is slow playing and waiting out the cap issue. Kids dominate in AHL before they come up.Fill in the gaps on one year replacement players. Dont kill any cap room like Chiarelli kept doing.Next year we should have money coming off, the prospects are one year more mature and we can look at going deep into the playoff.

    You do realize that Khaira and Chiasson were signed by Holland, right?

  45. ArmchairGM says:

    Rafa Nadal: Benning is a solid 3rd pairing guy. He shouldn’t be the whipping boy on this team.

    Benning has the highest +/- of any D on the team. He isn’t the problem, he’s part of the solution IMO. This year, at least.

  46. ArmchairGM says:

    doctoreye:
    Trade for Hall…….JP,Chiasson,Larsen,and whatever else NJ needs.This gives us two good scoring lines?…Hall good for 30 goals.Then we don’t need the bottom to score.

    Hall has scored 30 goals once in his career. Once.

  47. v4ance says:

    G Money:
    leadfarmer,
    Woodguy v2.0,

    I’m increasingly uncomfortable with the direction of this fanfic!

    On the bright side, we’re referring to you as Marcellus Wallace and not The Gimp…

  48. Bag of Pucks says:

    The 3rd line scoring has to come from internal draft and development, not FA overpays imo. If you overpay your 3L guys, then you cripple the ability to retain the D core as they matriculate. This is what the top tier teams do and it’s why Boston, Washington and Tampa let players like Connolly, Acciari and Miller walk.

    Benson, Yamamoto, Marody etc have to be the future 3 line contributors. That’s why Holland signed a bunch of bridge bets this season. He’s managing the cap with bigger goals in mind than just this season. The Oilers have MANY holes at W. You can’t spend your way out of that problem.

    The good news is the previous management would have just fast tracked the Bake trio. At least the team can PK now while the youth develops on the farm. That’s progress.

  49. leadfarmer says:

    ArmchairGM: Hall has scored 30 goals once in his career. Once.

    He would probably kick Nuge off the top PP so I would think he would get 30

  50. Scungilli Slushy says:

    To me the scoring issues ‘seem’ to be about puck support and aggressiveness in attacking. The league is very tight defensively. All players need to be hungry to score, not to just be content playing the system. A good player should be able to do both against their own level (usage).

    It’s like soccer and Canada playing top teams. Traditionally Canada has very little attack, one guy trying to beat multiple players, the opponent uses quick close passes to spring someone for a lane or shot, or place it to an area well that can be run onto. Constantly trying to spring someone and others moving to an opening to support the attack.

    Part of it is tempo, it’s slow enough outside of the top line the others don’t have time or space. I find that supporting players aren’t clearly open enough. On top of it all is there doesn’t seem to be an offensive strategy.

    Maybe they just aren’t executing it. But it needs to be more than get it deep and grind. Teams better at cycling make short passes off the boards to a player with speed and support players are moving to open ice, often it seems to a certain position.

    The benefit is players know the plan and think less, act more quickly. Of course the opponent sees the plan, then it comes down to winning battles and looking for someone losing position ( likely an Oiler:)) .

    The oilers to me seem to be looking to create a play, others often aren’t in position to help effectively, and it all happens to slowly, possession changes with little quality attack. If there is a quality problem with the roster it’s that they don’t have the skill and vision to attack without an offensive strategy.

    Perhaps the AHL guys would be better at what the team seems to be doing, being more skilled. Unfortunately they are all smaller players and only Yama has wheels. Always a problem for teams not called the Lightning. I don’t think McLeod is close enough to help overall, needs to show some scoring first.

  51. Durag says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    Benson, Yamamoto, Marody etc have to be the future 3 line contibutors. That’s why Holland signed a bunch of bridge bets this season. He’s managing the cap with bigger goals in mind than just this season. The Oilers have MANY holes at W. You can’t spend your way out of that problem. The good news is the previous management would have just fast tracked the Bake trio. At least the team can PK now while the youth develops on the farm. That’s progress.

    Very much agree and I don’t think you’ll see Holland swing for the fences even if the Oilers are looking like a playoff team at the deadline. The ridiculous start to the season skewed expectations a bit, but I still think this will be considered year 1 of a mini-rebuild.

  52. ArmchairGM says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Tough break for the Blues and Tarasenko – having shoulder surgery and will be re-evaluated in 5 months.

    Time to trade Neal? 😀

  53. Bag of Pucks says:

    Watched the outdoor game Saturday and Calgary fans are in full blown denial with Lucic. He’s still done like dinner and all the intangibles in the world won’t put lipstick on that pig of a trade.

    Treliving may have activated career expiration mode with that one. How can you trust a GM that proactively acquires that contract?

    It’s like the Flames said, “Hey, we got an arena deal in principle. Now let’s do something really stupid!”

  54. ArmchairGM says:

    leadfarmer: He would probably kick Nuge off the top PP so I would think he would get 30

    It’s not a given though, which was the force of the comment.

  55. G Money says:

    v4ance,

    I can live with that!

  56. Ryan says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    You wonder if someone on the coaching staff is tracking “zone time” like the old Vic Ferrari time on ice data.

    Watching the bottom two lines play, they seem to try to maintain possession in the opposition zone as a primary goal with doing anything else like shooting the puck… an afterthought.

  57. New Improved Darkness says:

    I’m sure I mentioned this once before in years past, but the worst shot I ever took was bending over a drinking fountain in the main hallway corridor in my grade 7 or 8 school year in Red Deer. We had a class field trip to the local swimming pool, and everyone was mustering for the buses, with towels and trunks under arm. Some aspiring juvee passing by—presumably a poor judge of his rapidly increasing arm strength under the testosteronal surge of early puberty—randomly decided it was open season on my exposed bambinos.

    I don’t entirely recall the folded-tent trip down. But I do recall that my new universe was suddenly very small, and consisted entirely of green linoleum, curled into a suffocating ball of unpleasantness poised on the very precipice of gravitational singularity.

    The unpleasantness was off-scale high, so this did not concern me much. However, what remained of my consciousness did very much want my original universe back, and it took some measure of superhuman psychological drive for it to finally return.

    “Why me? Why? Why?” might have then passed briefly trough my mind, though I kept it to myself and promptly tamped it out. It was probably the long succession of head-splitting earaches as a young child that baked me into such a stoic mold. For this minor stuff, it was hard to get me to behave like anything much had just happened. Minor stuff like being dropped on the floor like a sack of potatoes by a blind pill shot.

    By the time my eyes regained focus, the long green corridor was basically a ghost town, and I was probably on the cusp of missing the bus altogether. I rose to my feet and began to shuffle, gingerly, toward the exit, full military power as available to me in that moment.

    Just then a male teacher with his head on an officious swivel popped out from around the side corridor near the exit doors, and shot me a withering look for bringing up the red lantern in a listless shuffle. His withering look rebounded off my turbo-charged indignation like it was shot back by a rail gun powered by a tiny little piece of hypothetical green cheese.

    Proton Earth, Electron Moon — one of Randall Munroe’s best ever

    I think he had been about to yap at me to hurry my sorry ass. But he stowed it real quick, as if I were some kind of birth-swapped Adam from Pratchett and Gaiman’s Good Omens flashing from behind his eye sockets the first glimmer of his true identity.

    Quick adult calculation: either this slouching student quickly returns to his meek brainiac self, or Red Deer is mere seconds away from becoming Alberta’s second Drumheller canyon. He’ll get himself onto the bus on his own steam, or there won’t even be a bus, so not my problem.

    I had more or less recovered the use of erect posture by the time I reached the sidewalk. Then I had a great time at the pool, where I flirted with one of the girls for the first time in my life. I was a strong swimmer after many years of lessons. And I had just felled a fully grown, adult man with one diabolical glare.

    Unfortunately, the unwitting electroshock therapy to my burgeoning manhood wore off before the day was out, and I collapsed back into my clueless state about womanhood for many, many years.

    Perhaps it wasn’t my psychological rocket to the sprocket from under my eyebrows that turned the teacher away. Perhaps the poor bastard recognized my physiological state from the inside, and he was merely rushing to the exit before his own testicles retracted irretrievably into his own abdominal cavity in primal, sympathetic reflex.

    ————

    I may have exaggerated “irretrievably”.

    But not much.

    Michael Phelps has big red circles on his back from cupping therapy — August 2016

    Definitely not what made me a chick-magnet in the swimming pool that one time.

  58. Numenius says:

    leadfarmer: Reider being waived.
    Is he better than our Reiders?

    German spelling lesson:

    If pronounced “ee”, then the spelling is “ie”.

    If pronounced “eye”, then the spelling is “ei”.

    “R’ee’der”, therefore is spelt Rieder, not Reider.

    “S’eye’denberg”, on the other hand, is spelt Seidenberg, not Siedenberg.

    The rule of thumb for English speakers is to pronounce the second vowel long.

    Hence, too, why Draisaitl is pronounced “Dr’eye’ – s’eye’tl ” not “Dr’ay’ – s’ay’tl”

    Yes, I’m a nerd.

    It’s also personal because I have a German last name with an “ie” in it.

  59. russ99 says:

    Seems to me we’re keeping bottom six players in support roles rather than going full steam ahead on offense and keeping possession is more important than getting quality shots on net.

    And its working too, we’ve +7 goal differential and 10th in the league in goals allowed/60.

    Compared to last year’s bottom six that was as leaky as a sieve.

  60. Woogie63 says:

    The current cap logic is to load up 8-12 players and then round our the rest of the team.

    The Oiler’s are in the middle of that pack, and they have the highest single contract in the league.

    If 97 and 29 play 30% more minutes that the top line players played 10 years ago – it means some lower players have less minutes to make crooked numbers.

    If 97 and 29 play 60% more minutes on the PP than they top PP players played 10 years ago. ….

    TV time-out,s better training, and easier travel is changing the player selection on all well coached teams.

    I don’t see it as the same as it ever was.

  61. smellyglove says:

    This team would look good with a Ryan Strome.

  62. Wilde says:

    G Money: KSA

    They’re a moon colony, that’s what they are.

  63. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull:
    Ya see LT, I have it on good authority from people here that there’s nothing wrong with the roster as we’re at the top of the NHL. You simply CANNOT argue with that logic.

    Noone has said this.

  64. Cassandra says:

    russ99:
    Seems to me we’re keeping bottom six players in support roles rather than going full steam ahead on offense and keeping possession is more important than getting quality shots on net.

    And its working too, we’ve +7 goal differential and 10th in the league in goals allowed/60.

    Compared to last year’s bottom six that was as leaky as a sieve.

    This would be a hilarious post to read at anytime since the proposition it asserts is to absurd to be believed.

    It is an especially funny to read it the very thread where we learn that the bottom 6 has been outscored 11 to 1 at ES this year.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMoney,

    Thank you so much for your work at Puck IQ – it really is a huge accomplishment and a great resource.

    Can’t imagine the amount of work that goes in to it.

  66. Jethro Tull says:

    OriginalPouzar: Noone has said this.

    On Oct 17th, I wrote:

    Jethro Tull says:
    October 17, 2019 at 9:08 am

    So I was wondering why the Oilers were winning. One theory I had was their % of HDSC per SF was higher than other teams. This would mean that although they were being outshot, they actually had more and better scoring chances.

    I went to NST. I was wrong. In fact, of last night’s schedule, only one team that had more shots and more HDSC won. Now I have to think what that tells me. It tells me: Goaltending.

    Dave is angry but he should be with himself and Ken. Not the team. His is the much vaunted defensive system. He was brought in as he supposedly gets more from less talent. But other than Connor and Leon going nova every game, whilst the D behind them gets caved.

    What we’ve been saying for years: IT’S THE ROSTER, STUPID!!

    To which you replied directly with:

    “I think the roster has led to a team that is tied for first in league standings, 2nd in goals scored (2 back with a game hand) and tied for goal differential.

    We can discuss sustainability, regression, etc. but McDavid is on the roster, Drai is on the roster, Bear is on the roster, Klefbom is on the roster, Mikko is on the roster, Nuge is on the roster.

    The roster is leading the league.”

    That’s verbatim.

    Dude, just own it.

  67. Yeti says:

    Jethro Tull: To which you replied directly with:
    “I think the roster has led to a team that is tied for first in league standings, 2nd in goals scored (2 back with a game hand) and tied for goal differential.
    We can discuss sustainability, regression, etc. but McDavid is on the roster, Drai is on the roster, Bear is on the roster, Klefbom is on the roster, Mikko is on the roster, Nuge is on the roster.
    The roster is leading the league.”
    That’s verbatim.
    Dude, just own it.

    You seem to be very keen to stir up a conflict here, but I’m not sure why. To my eyes, what you quote doesn’t say “there’s nothing wrong with the roster as we’re at the top of the NHL”. It says that there are some very good things about the roster which got us to the top. I don’t think anyone here says there aren’t obvious problems and weaknesses. That’s a straw man argument.

  68. Primetime says:

    Didn’t someone in the preseason show numbers with Jurco and Sheahan together in Detroit, that were promising offensively?

    Would Ken consider trading Khaira for Perlini to make a 3rd line of Jurco-Sheahan-Perlini with some threat of actually scoring?

  69. russ99 says:

    Cassandra,

    11 goals against in 12 games is nothing to sneeze at, one of which Sam Gagner was directly responsible for yesterday.

    So sick of the narrative of our fans that goals for is the only thing that matters, let the goalie bail us out at the other end, and the +/- argument when looking at player contributions, where we look over all kinds of bad play as long as the puck is going in the other team’s net.

    Small sample size, but we’re seeing success in playing the new system.

    Success >>> lots of goals, as we’ve seen the last 10+ years.

  70. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    I feel like the depth scoring is bad enough that Holland might be wise to be approaching Minny about Staal (and Zucker, but that’s a separate matter). Imagine Staal patrolling a third line behind our existing Cs; I could feel comfortable bringing Yamo up to play on a soft minutes line there! Can’t imagine Minny would have issue taking back Gagner’s contract to balance the cap if they’re getting some quality assets- maybe a 2nd and Marody?

  71. Cassandra says:

    russ99,

    Person A cites goals for and against. Person A does this because the rules of hockey states that the team that scores more goals than they give up wins the game.

    Person B responds by saying they are sick of fans who think that goals for is the only thing that matters.

    Person A goes and hits his head against the wall.

  72. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99:
    Seems to me we’re keeping bottom six players in support roles rather than going full steam ahead on offense and keeping possession is more important than getting quality shots on net.

    And its working too, we’ve +7 goal differential and 10th in the league in goals allowed/60.

    Compared to last year’s bottom six that was as leaky as a sieve.

    EDm’s 5v5 goal diff is -3 when the top 6 is +7.

    EDM’s overall goaldiff is +4 with Special Teams being +5

    This year’s bottom 6 is an astounding -2.8 goals/60 minutes 5v5. (-10 over 214.2 minutes)

    Last year’s bottom 6 (all of 93,29 and 93 off) was -0.82 goals/60 minutes 5v5 (-19 over 1395.5 minutes)

    At this rate if the year’s bottom 6 plays the same 1395.5 minutes as last year’s bottom 6 they’ll be -65 compare to last year’s -19.

    It’s not often when every assertion in a post is demonstrably wrong but you did it.

  73. ArmchairGM says:

    Despite being the 2nd highest scoring team in the league, Toronto is just +1 all strengths. Only the Kings have allowed more goals this season… Dubas went out and re-vamped the defense corps and the result is mostly the same. There’s renewed talk in Leafland about acquiring a shutdown defenseman… I wonder if Adam Larsson, once healthy, is of interest to them. Would adding Puljujarvi to the deal bring Nylander back? He’s having an underwhelming start again this year, on pace for 19 goals and ~50 points.

  74. ArmchairGM says:

    Primetime: Didn’t someone in the preseason show numbers with Jurco and Sheahan together in Detroit, that were promising offensively?

    Yes, but the missing link was Tatar. He was driving the results on the Jurco-Sheahan line, not them.

  75. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Ryan:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    You wonder if someone on the coaching staff is tracking “zone time” like the old Vic Ferrari time on ice data.

    Watching the bottom two lines play, they seem to try to maintain possession in the opposition zone as a primary goal with doing anything else like shooting the puck… an afterthought.

    Vic didn’t track “zone time” , the NHL did when Vic came up with “corsi”

    The correlation between corsi and zone time was ~95% so from then people used corsi and possession interchangeably.

    I do not doubt that Tippett values zone time.

    It’s available on SportlogIQ data which EDM subscribe to, but I’m not sure if anyone there uses it.

  76. ArmchairGM says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual:
    I feel like the depth scoring is bad enough that Holland might be wise to be approaching Minny about Staal (and Zucker, but that’s a separate matter). Imagine Staal patrolling a third line behind our existing Cs; I could feel comfortable bringing Yamo up to play on a soft minutes line there! Can’t imagine Minny would have issue taking back Gagner’s contract to balance the cap if they’re getting some quality assets- maybe a 2nd and Marody?

    Sounds good to me. I would offer a 2nd OR Marody, and go from there.

  77. Cassandra says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Despite being the 2nd highest scoring team in the league, Toronto is just +1 all strengths. Only the Kings have allowed more goals this season… Dubas went out and re-vamped the defense corps and the result is mostly the same. There’s renewed talk in Leafland about acquiring a shutdown defenseman… I wonder if Adam Larsson, once healthy, is of interest to them. Would adding Puljujarvi to the deal bring Nylander back? He’s having an underwhelming start again this year, on pace for 19 goals and ~50 points.

    I watch almost every Leaf game. Nylander has been great. He doesn’t have Mathews finishing ability, but he creates chance after chance. He’s Hall-lite, whose finishing also has never matched his chance creating.

    Trading Puljujarvi and Larsson for him would be an A+ trade. No chance the Leafs would do it though.

  78. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    ArmchairGM: Sounds good to me. I would offer a 2nd OR Marody, and go from there.

    Certainly, the assumption would be start the negotiation lower. I tend to prefer assuming high in these kinds of posts since I’m not the one doing the negotiating.

  79. Pretendergast says:

    I like trade talk as much as the next guy but nothing will change in the short term. The unfortunate part of St. Louis’ cup run was that many managers will probably try to hold on and resist the panic move because the boys might just find that special something.

    Lars + for Nylander would be a dream, but alot would have to go wrong for the Leafs for that day to come.

    Plan is the same as it always was, wait it out, may feel cute and bring reinforcements around Xmas, idk.

  80. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99,

    So sick of the narrative of our fans that goals for is the only thing that matters,

    For years you argued that corsi didn’t matter, only goals.

    You like being a contrarian here, but you’re not very good at it.

  81. godot10 says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Watched the outdoor game Saturday and Calgary fans are in full blown denial with Lucic. He’s still done like dinner and all the intangibles in the world won’t put lipstick on that pig of a trade.

    Treliving may have activated career expiration mode with that one. How can you trust a GM that proactively acquires that contract?

    It’s like the Flames said, “Hey, we got an arena deal in principle.Now let’s do something really stupid!”

    He saved the Calgary Flames owners up to $10 million actual dollars in the Lucic deal.

  82. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’m not so sure I would say the bottom six this year is worse than the bottom six last year.

    Here were the most common bottom six players.

    Khaira 3 goals
    Reider 0 goals
    Brodziak 6 goals
    Rattie 4 goals
    JP 4 goals

    None of these guys played 80 games so you throw in a bunch of other guys with 2 goals. It’s not exactly an inspiring bunch of players.

    The big difference IMO is that none of the bottom six last year, except Reider and Khaira, could play on the PK. They couldn’t score and they couldn’t PK. At least the bottom six this year can do something competently. And they have pushed McDavid and Kassian off the PK.

  83. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Cassandra:
    russ99,

    Person A cites goals for and against.Person A does this because the rules of hockey states that the team that scores more goals than they give up wins the game.

    Person B responds by saying they are sick of fans who think that goals for is the only thing that matters.

    Person A goes and hits his head against the wall.

    Russ’ repeated ability to look at goal differential or goal share and say “yeah, what about defence” is unparalleled in the history of humanity and/or this blog.

    I’m pretty sure its a schtick and troll job.

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull: On Oct 17th, I wrote:

    Jethro Tull says:
    October 17, 2019 at 9:08 am

    So I was wondering why the Oilers were winning. One theory I had was their % of HDSC per SF was higher than other teams. This would mean that although they were being outshot, they actually had more and better scoring chances.

    I went to NST. I was wrong. In fact, of last night’s schedule, only one team that had more shots and more HDSC won. Now I have to think what that tells me. It tells me: Goaltending.

    Dave is angry but he should be with himself and Ken. Not the team. His is the much vaunted defensive system. He was brought in as he supposedly gets more from less talent. But other than Connor and Leon going nova every game, whilst the D behind them gets caved.

    What we’ve been saying for years: IT’S THE ROSTER, STUPID!!

    To which you replied directly with:

    “I think the roster has led to a team that is tied for first in league standings, 2nd in goals scored (2 back with a game hand) and tied for goal differential.

    We can discuss sustainability, regression, etc. but McDavid is on the roster, Drai is on the roster, Bear is on the roster, Klefbom is on the roster, Mikko is on the roster, Nuge is on the roster.

    The roster is leading the league.”

    That’s verbatim.

    Dude, just own it.

    Own what?

    I never said there is nothing wrong with the roster or that the roster will lead to leading the league all year or anything like that. I stated facts regarding the current roster and where it had the team at the time.

    You can infer whatever you want – you’d be wrong in this case but that is your right.

  85. OriginalPouzar says:

    50percentbodyfat:
    Khaira, Chiasson are replacement players.Why do the oilers do this?Multi year deals for players that can be replaced for league minimum on one year deals.Just like Russel.They need to go.Also when is the Benning experiment over. Perssons and Lagesson have to be better than him and Manning.

    Kassian is not a typical (or legit) top line player but he is definitely not “replacement level” and could not be replaced on the roster by a league minimum player. Come on, really?

    Benning is a really good 3RD in the NHL – his play has struggled a bit when paired with Manning but that is to be expected.

  86. OriginalPouzar says:

    doctoreye:
    Trade for Hall…….JP,Chiasson,Larsen,and whatever else NJ needs.This gives us two good scoring lines?…Hall good for 30 goals.Then we don’t need the bottom to score.

    Hall has scored 30 goals once in his career……

  87. Primetime says:

    ArmchairGM: Yes, but the missing link was Tatar. He was driving the results on the Jurco-Sheahan line, not them.

    Aaahh..didn’t recall that part of the equation. Perlini would certainly not be driving results like a Tatar. Thanks for the reminder…

  88. stephen sheps says:

    G Money,

    Hi G!

    Cassandra: I watch almost every Leaf game.Nylander has been great.He doesn’t have Mathews finishing ability, but he creates chance after chance.He’s Hall-lite, whose finishing also has never matched his chance creating.

    Trading Puljujarvi and Larsson for him would be an A+ trade.No chance the Leafs would do it though.

    No chance they would…

    However there is a bizarre subset of Leafs fans (including my father-in-law to be… probably… don’t blow it, Sheps) who think that Matthews needs to be traded for a big, right shot D. In fact he and I were chatting at the game Friday night about that very thing. I reminded him that ‘the trade was one for one’ and he realized that maybe he should reconsider his perspective.

    That same vocal subset think Barrie and Reilly are jokes and Cody Ceci is real good at hockey. They’re wrong.

  89. G Money says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    GMoney,

    Thank you so much for your work at Puck IQ – it really is a huge accomplishment and a great resource.

    Can’t imagine the amount of work that goes in to it.

    Thanks OP!

    It sounds like a cliche, but it is actually true that the reward (for all of us involved, WG, Sean, Zsolt) is when people use it and get value from it.

  90. G Money says:

    stephen sheps,

    Hi Stephen!

    I was just in Dean’s office a few days ago and we were talking about you! nothing bad 🙂

  91. GMB3 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Kassian is not a typical (or legit) top line player but he is definitely not “replacement level” and could not be replaced on the roster by a league minimum player. Come on, really?

    Benning is a really good 3RD in the NHL – his play has struggled a bit when paired with Manning but that is to be expected.

    Am I missing something here? I don’t think he said Kassian was a replacement level player. Talking about chiasson and Khaira

  92. godot10 says:

    stephen sheps:
    G Money,

    Hi G!

    No chance they would…

    However there is a bizarre subset of Leafs fans (including my father-in-law to be… probably… don’t blow it, Sheps) who think that Matthews needs to be traded for a big, right shot D. In fact he and I were chatting at the game Friday night about that very thing. I reminded him that ‘the trade was one for one’ and he realized that maybe he should reconsider his perspective.

    That same vocal subset think Barrie and Reilly are jokes and Cody Ceci is real good at hockey. They’re wrong.

    I can see a Matthews for Doughty trade happening next summer. Doughty will be sick of thoroughly mediocre coach by then.

  93. OriginalPouzar says:

    EhTeam: That the bottom six would be an issue was pretty predictable.Probably not that they would be such a total mess.But the solution doesn’t appear to be to do the same thing and wait for different results.
    Our 50% chance of the playoffs won’t withstand much of a losing streak and what we are doing now isn’t sustainable.

    The immediate play would be to call up Yamamoto and stick him with Nuge and Neal and see what we have.Then Marody not far behind so that we have a 3C who has at least some offensive chops.

    And get Russell back to 3LD and Manning off of the ice.Either Persspn back or Jones or Bouchard to RD until Persson is ready to go.

    I would recommend not calling the rookie pro d-man Bouchard up after 7 pro games in the AHL (I don’t count the games in the playoffs last year as he was as sheltered as I’ve ever seen a player).

    Its not because I think a prospect automatically needs AHL development time but its because this player needs AHL development time,

    He is doing just fine for a rookie D (in fact, great for a rookie D) but he’s not “killing it” and the parts of his game that were in need of development continue to be in need of development.

    He has had his struggles both at 5 on 5 and the PP in recent games – making quite a few high event mistakes.

    I think he’ll be a “fast developer” but I don’t see this player being ready for the NHL (of course, certain isolated skills are but his overall game just isn’t).

    —————————–

    I would prefer Yamamoto to remain in the AHL as he is also developing a multitude of skills including being a higher end 2-way player and a PK guy as well as learning how to play that “tenacious style” against pros. I think he’s going to need those skills as I don’t think his offensive production will drive his NHL career – he may end up as a middle six guy that can score a decent amount but also helps the team in other ways. I’m not saying he can’t (or won’t) be a solid 2nd ilne complimentary player but it behooves the organization to continue to develop his additional skills.

    I do have more time for an early call-up of Yamamoto than Bouchard.

  94. YKOil says:

    I still have a lot of time for Nygard, Jurco looks to be a good pick-up straight-up and I would like another look at Haas

    Don’t mind Sheahan and P Russell for 4th line duty (but not 3rd)

    Can’t afford Khaira AND Granlund AND Russell/Archibald to be lacking in offensive impact.

    Summer wasn’t a bust. Strome would great on this team (bumping Sheahan down among other things).

  95. Cassandra says:

    stephen sheps:
    G Money,

    Hi G!

    No chance they would…

    However there is a bizarre subset of Leafs fans (including my father-in-law to be… probably… don’t blow it, Sheps) who think that Matthews needs to be traded for a big, right shot D. In fact he and I were chatting at the game Friday night about that very thing. I reminded him that ‘the trade was one for one’ and he realized that maybe he should reconsider his perspective.

    That same vocal subset think Barrie and Reilly are jokes and Cody Ceci is real good at hockey. They’re wrong.

    I don’t think Barrie has been that good this year. Muzzin is certainly better.

    Ceci, on the other hand, is abjectly terrible.

  96. Eh Team says:

    OriginalPouzar: I would recommend not calling the rookie pro d-man Bouchard up after 7 pro games in the AHL (I don’t count the games in the playoffs last year as he was as sheltered as I’ve ever seen a player).
    Its not because I think a prospect automatically needs AHL development time but its because this player needs AHL development time,

    Then call Jones up and play him. Or just play Lageson., There’s zero reason for have Manning play any more NHL games this year. He’s not helping you win (in fact he’s barely playing 10 minutes now) and he has zero chance of being here next year. We would have been so much better off with Jones or Lageson at 6 games, rather than Manning. At least those games would be providing valuable experience to either of them.

    And Granlund has run his course. He’s shown nothing. He should be in the AHL and someone else should have a chance. Khaira should be in the press box. Tippett’s playing these guys as little as possible. Play Haas, play Gambardella, play Currie. If you want the possibility of some upside, play Yamo, but play him with some skill.

    You can’t win long term if ypur 3rd and 4th lines are getting outscored to the tune of 11-1. That’s like conceding a goal every game. It’s not good enough to say you have a buffer because you have points in the bank. That buffer will disappear very quickly if you aren’t giving yourself the your best chance to win every game.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    Which goal was Gagner directly responsible for? The goal that was 80% (in my opinion) culpability on Bear and 20% (in my opinion) on Gagner.

    Gagner didn’t work hard enough to get where he needed to be but Bear needs to recognize and he had MANY options that didn’t include passing the puck to the opponent.

  98. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM:
    Despite being the 2nd highest scoring team in the league, Toronto is just +1 all strengths. Only the Kings have allowed more goals this season… Dubas went out and re-vamped the defense corps and the result is mostly the same. There’s renewed talk in Leafland about acquiring a shutdown defenseman… I wonder if Adam Larsson, once healthy, is of interest to them. Would adding Puljujarvi to the deal bring Nylander back? He’s having an underwhelming start again this year, on pace for 19 goals and ~50 points.

    I’d also be interested in Kerfoot

  99. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: I took a lot of grief during the summer for having just that opinion. Man do I wish I was wrong then.

    And I was one of those arguing the bottom 6 might be OK. Man do I wish I’d been right, but I was so so wrong.

  100. OriginalPouzar says:

    GMB: Am I missing something here? I don’t think he said Kassian was a replacement level player. Talking about chiasson and Khaira

    That’s a very good point – not sure why my brain read “Kassian” when I initially read the post.

    Apologies to the 12%Body Fat…..

  101. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Hall has scored 30 goals once in his career……

    …..and was above 50% 5v5 goal share in front of awful Dcorps against the other team’s best for every year but one.

    Like Russ99 always says: “its about what you create minus what you give up and then you have take into account goals against but no one ever does”

  102. OriginalPouzar says:

    Perlini traded to the Wings (for Regula).

  103. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy v2.0: …..and was above 50% 5v5 goal share in front of awful Dcorps against the other team’s best for every year but one.

    Like Russ99 always says: “its about what you create minus what you give up and then you have take into account goals against but no one ever does”

    Sure but, with respect, that’s a strawman argument as I was simply responding to a comment that Hall was a lock for 30 goals.

  104. Nit64 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: its about what you create minus what you give up

    ~ should work if you also subtract the goals against ~

  105. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: Sure but, with respect, that’s a strawman argumentas I was simply responding to a comment that Hall was a lock for 30 goals.

    I missed the “lock” part so I get it now.

    Also,

    It’s not a straw man.

    It’s a rebuttal of the implication that Hall’s goal volume defines his hockey value.

    I missed that the implication wasn’t present when it reads like it is.

  106. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Nit64: ~ should work if you also subtract the goals against~

    No ever does.

  107. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Perlini traded to the Wings (for Regula).

    I will be interested to see how this works out.

    How much of Tampa is Yzerman vs Al Murray and everyone else.

    Not sure what value Regula equates to other than being a 2018 3rd rounder.

  108. OriginalPouzar says:

    YKOil:
    I still have a lot of time for Nygard, Jurco looks to be a good pick-up straight-up and I would like another look at Haas

    Don’t mind Sheahan and P Russell for 4th line duty (but not 3rd)

    Can’t afford Khaira AND Granlund AND Russell/Archibald to be lacking in offensive impact.

    Summer wasn’t a bust.Strome would great on this team (bumping Sheahan down among other things).

    Agree with all of that:

    – Nygard is only out due to injury – I don’t now if he’ll ever to a 2LW in the NHL but he does have some skill and wasn’t shy on “trying moves”. I think he could be a very good bottom six player in time.

    – Haas I haven’t seen enough of to know what his game might really be about. I am looking forward to having his speed and energy back as 4C but I do wish they would have kept him in the AHL for a few more games – their plan was to give him 6-7 games to adjust and I don’t really see the need to deviate but its not a huge deal

    – Sheahan would a very good 4C but, unfortunately, he’s being asked to bat above his established level of ability – with that said, he does have two 30 point seasons on his resume – time to piss at least a drop (he’s been getting a few chances lately).

    – Russell is fine as 4LW but he’s a tweener at best and, as much as his work ethic and “responsibility” is nice, if he’s on the 3rd line, well, we see the result.

  109. stephen sheps says:

    G Money,

    even if it was bad, I don’t think I’d mind.

    I genuinely love that you two work together. I can only imagine the conversations…

  110. OriginalPouzar says:

    EhTeam: Then call Jones up and play him.Or just play Lageson.,There’s zero reason for have Manning play any more NHL games this year.He’s not helping you win (in fact he’s barely playing 10 minutes now) and he has zero chance of being here next year.We would have been so much better off with Jones or Lageson at 6 games, rather than Manning.At least those games would be providing valuable experience to either of them.

    I don’t disagree on this at all and, in fact, I have been stating my desire for Lagesson to replace Manning for 5-6 games now.

    Tippett and Playfair’s decisions on this have been the most baffling to me of the entire season. I mean, Manning did “OK” his first few games but, even before his play fell off, its not like he was moving the needle. There is every possibility that Lagesson could or would be just as good and potentially much better – he’s a better skater and puck mover (at least at non-NHL levels).

    Not to mention that he needs a contract in a few months and will be eligible for waivers next season – the organization needs to get a look at this guy and this was the absolute PERFECT scenario:

    – the correct lineup spot is open (3LD)
    – the other option is a declining veteran who has zero future with the team and hasn’t been good in a couple years
    – the team had a great record so the pressure was a little bit less than if the team was already struggling to put on wins.

  111. stephen sheps says:

    Cassandra: I don’t think Barrie has been that good this year.Muzzin is certainly better.

    Ceci, on the other hand, is abjectly terrible.

    Agreed, but they seem to be upset by everyone who isn’t Ceci. It’s bizarre. Ceci is awful. Barrie will get better.

    I’ve been to (and watched) more leafs games in the last year than I ever thought possible, and it’s reassuring to know that fans here in Toronto are just as ridiculous as fans in Edmonton, maybe more.

    godot10: I can see a Matthews for Doughty trade happening next summer. Doughty will be sick of thoroughly mediocre coach by then.

    Yeah somehow I could see that happening. Gets Matthews closer to home, same with Doughty. But if he’s sick of TMC, he’ll hate playing for Babs in about 15 minutes. Watching the Leafs PP this year and it sure looks a lot like Todd’s systems. So many drop passes. So few clean zone entries. It’s like watching the 2017-18 Oilers but with faster forwards and an equally inept defence.

  112. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: I will be interested to see how this works out.

    How much of Tampa is Yzerman vs Al Murray and everyone else.

    Not sure what value Regula equates to other than being a 2018 3rd rounder.

    I would say that he’s had solid up arrows since drafted and likely akin to a McLeod or Lavoie level prospect (i.e. a 2nd rounder that is on schedule).

    Not sure where he would be vis-a-vis Samorukov but probably not far off that level of prospect – Sammy is a more “complete player” and further along so probably a bit higher rated.

    Either way, that’s a very good return for Perlini, especially given circumstances – I’m disapointed that the Oilers couldn’t grab him but would not have been happy with that level of prospect being the cost so glad he didn’t pay it (assuming he was even in the conversation).

  113. drglen says:

    no moves announced today that I could find. Do not bring up anyone from the farm ( yamo bens marody) .. but..

    Khaira needs to sit and be in trade discussions.

    Haas needs to play.

    But Tipp has to help out the forwards we have, talent or no, but putting in better D combinations. Manning should sit now. Lagesson should draw in ( games ago) Put him with Klef.. put russell and benning back together. When person healthy, put him with klef and lagesson back with either rusself or benning

    and get Burdasov’s agent on the phone.

  114. Wilde says:

    Fellas I’m about to go full steam ahead on offense

  115. OilClog says:

    Hall has only scored 30 goals once in a single season

    Hall has only won the mvp once in a single season

    Hall has played his entire career on bottom feeding shit filled teams with no established talent that you would require a second hand to count them up.

    Hall on the 2nd line LW would give the Oilers a supernova line and a 1st line playing 2nd.

    Would rather have 2 top lines with drivers then continue on hoping the bottom 6 miraculously starts scoring.

    Gotta love the anti Hall squad, ignoring actual proven talent for hopes and maybes woooooo.

    All the Pking in the world won’t stop this current bottom 6 from being the worst 5×5 unit in history. – 10 5×5 in 12 games lol yea they’re doing great…

  116. OriginalPouzar says:

    I can’t imagine Manning playing tomorrow.

    Its going to be Lagesson at 3LD or, if healthy and cleared, Russell at 3LD and Persson at 2RD – both no-brainers, right?

    With that said, I thought it was a no-brainer to Lagesson in for Manning about 3-4 times, including after Manning played less than 3 minutes in the third against the Caps…..

  117. OriginalPouzar says:

    I would absolutely want Taylor Hall on the Oilers, in isolation

    I do not want Taylor Hall and his third contract on the Oilers (assuming its in the range of what I think it will be including 7-8 years).

  118. jp says:

    russ99:
    Seems to me we’re keeping bottom six players in support roles rather than going full steam ahead on offense and keeping possession is more important than getting quality shots on net.

    And its working too, we’ve +7 goal differential and 10th in the league in goals allowed/60.

    Compared to last year’s bottom six that was as leaky as a sieve.

    I really wish this were true but it isn’t close.

    5v5 with McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge off.
    18-19
    26GF 45GA
    1.12GF/60 1.93GA/60

    19-20
    1GF 11GA
    0.28GF/60 3.08GA/60

    They’re killing penalties, but they’re way WAY worse on offense and defense then last years group.

  119. pts2pndr says:

    I am late to the party due other commitments. Love to see G back. I think that Chiasson is misplaced on the second line. Jurco has shown chemistry with Neal that is not there when Neal plays with Chiasson. Given that Jurco is younger it would seem logical to play him with Neal on the second line for a more extended time. The coaching staff has had to deal with injuries that have affected the bottom two lines and given the results to date, deserve a break. Khaira has struggled this year but I am willing to give him more time as I believe he is adjusting to a new coaching philosophy. He has been extremely strong on the boards and good on the PK. Kris Russel does not fit with Klefbom on the second pairing D. I believe this is because they are diametrically opposed defensively. They are both better as the top gun on a defensive pairing which is why, by what I observe better with a rookie than they are with one another. One backs in while the other challenges at the blue line etc. They do not, by my eye, make an effective pairing and actually drag down the McDavid line when paired with them.

  120. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I would absolutely want Taylor Hall on the Oilers, in isolation

    I do not want Taylor Hall and his third contract on the Oilers (assuming its in the range of what I think it will be including 7-8 years).

    Now make sure to remind us every day

  121. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: And I was one of those arguing the bottom 6 might be OK. Man do I wish I’d been right, but I was so so wrong.

    Sheahan is a top-5 PK-er in the league and Jurco looks decent so far. That’s part of a 4th line…

  122. JimmyV1965 says:

    jp: I really wish this were true but it isn’t close.

    5v5 with McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge off.
    18-19
    26GF 45GA
    1.12GF/60 1.93GA/60

    19-20
    1GF 11GA
    0.28GF/60 3.08GA/60

    They’re killing penalties, but they’re way WAY worse on offense and defense then last years group.

    Something about this makes me a little uncomfortable. I’m not saying the bottom six is good. Clearly they’re not. But I think back to Brodziak last year and I know he scored 2 of his 6 goals in one game against the Wings. And I’m pretty sure he scored 4 of his 6 in one week. Who knows. Maybe Sheahan scores 4 in a week and someone else chips in another 3.

    The scoring levels for both groups are so putrid that it almost becomes a sample size issue. One week of good production from the group changes the numbers in a significant way.

    There was a lot of movement in the bottom six last year because they were awful. Here’s what I think are the most common bottom six players last year and their scoring.

    Khaira 3 goals
    Reider 0 goals
    Brodziak 6 goals
    Rattie 4 goals
    JP 4 goals

    I look at this group and see some very bad players. I just can’t see how they are any better than the group we have now, as underwhelming as it is. Our PK
    has improved dramatically this year as well and that counts for something.

    The numbers obviously don’t lie, but I can’t help but think it’s failing to capture something.

  123. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Now make sure to remind us every day

    I do apologize that you wasted your time reading my opinion on a Hall acquisition again.

    Of course, it was in direct response to a poster that has, multiple times (like a dozen plus) posted their opinion on acquiring Hall (interesting that you didn’t provide his post with a similar response – seems personal).

    This past has yet to respond to my responses to him on the subject. I am looking for his thoughts on the risk proposed and some discussion with this poster on the subject.

    I will ensure to continue to NOT passively aggressively call you out when you repeat your prior opinions on subjects.

  124. v4ance says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I can’t imagine Manning playing tomorrow.

    Its going to be Lagesson at 3LD or, if healthy and cleared, Russell at 3LD and Persson at 2RD – both no-brainers, right?

    With that said, I thought it was a no-brainer to Lagesson in for Manning about 3-4 times, including after Manning played less than 3 minutes in the third against the Caps…..

    The theory rattling around my brain is that the Oilers are showcasing Manning for a possible trade.

    Lagesson is up and receiving an NHL paycheque while standing by for the possible transaction. If and when it happens, Lagesson gets first shot at the opening at 3LD or 7th D

  125. Dac189 says:

    OilClog:
    Hall has only scored 30 goals once in a single season

    Hall has only won the mvp once in a single season

    Hall has played his entire career on bottom feeding shit filled teams with no established talent that you would require a second hand to count them up.

    Hall on the 2nd line LW would give the Oilers a supernova line and a 1st line playing 2nd.

    Would rather have 2 top lines with drivers then continue on hoping the bottom 6 miraculously starts scoring.

    Gotta love the anti Hall squad, ignoring actual proven talent for hopes and maybes woooooo.

    All the Pking in the world won’t stop this current bottom 6 from being the worst 5×5 unit in history. – 10 5×5 in 12 games lol yea they’re doing great…

    It’s not that we’re anti Hall. I just don’t think the Oilers can afford him.
    You’d need to clear up 6 million just for this season. (Nuge or Larsson most likely. The following Russel, Manning, Chiasson, Neal, Gagner have difficult to get rid of contracts and you’d need to trade more than one of them)

    Next season he would cost ~9-10 million long term.

    Next year cap guess: 82m
    8.5 – 12.5 – 3.5
    10 – 6 – 6
    2 – 2 – 1
    1 – 1 – 1
    1

    4.15 – 4.15
    7 Nurse – 2.5 bear
    4 – 2
    1

    GK: 4.5 & 2.5
    Buyout penalty: 4

    Adds up to 91 million cap hit

    So clear up ~9 million and add 1 mill players for every one removed
    At the very least you’ll lose one of Nuge or Nurse (Plus Russel)

    Potential lineup

    1 – 12.5 – 6
    10 – 8.5 – 3.5 Kass
    2 Chia – 2 – 1
    1 – 1 – 1
    1

    4.15 Klef – 2.5 bear
    7 Nurse – 2 Persson
    2 Lagesson – 2 Benning
    1 Jones

    GK: 4.5 & 2.5
    Buyout penalty: 4

    Just barely fits with Nuge, Larsson and Russel gone.

    The bottom 6 will be just as bad as this year.
    Questionable D after Klef and Nurse, maybe Bear.

    PS the Nuge line is winning its goal share right now.

  126. Yeti says:

    v4ance: The theory rattling around my brain is that the Oilers are showcasing Manning for a possible trade.

    Is there truly a team that desperate / stupid?

  127. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Great
    Last year was Koskinen on repeat
    This year is a guy that most likely has 0 interest playing for the Oil ever again
    But maybe Spooner will finally get his chance

  128. Wilde says:

    JimmyV1965: The numbers obviously don’t lie, but I can’t help but think it’s failing to capture something.

    They’re shooting at ~1.00%. Last year they got up around 4. I don’t know if the regression (which will happen) is going to get quite there, or any higher.

    It’s less about how good each individual player is (they’re all amongst the very flat distribution of player talent around replacement-level) but the duplicity of everyone’s skillset plus the encouraged tendencies from that factor and the coaching.

    There was a massive hole in shot generation in the inside last year with the bottom six on the ice, it’s back and over twice as bad. It’s not just shot location but also just a dearth of outside-in passing and one-timers.

    I hope after the new year when the young call-ups come, the line that’s constructed from them plays a different game.

  129. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Yeti: Is there truly a team that desperate / stupid?

    Always. Depends on the ask (Chia seems to have not read the market or cared) and everyone’s motives. The Lucic trade seems to have been about a 10M US gain for another player not doing diddly squat for the Flames.

    Well other than intimidating which IMO he does. More than Neal had done for them. Money talks………….

  130. Munny says:

    Yeti: Is there truly a team that desperate / stupid?

    Chia found employment. Lucic got traded. I feel like NASA(+) putting humans on Mars–like crucifixion–is a doddle.

    That said, I agree with the OP. Of course everyone’s hoping he comes into trade conversations when he gets reps and proves to be unbad. The thought though, would be to get him in, here and there, ie. give the opportunity to prove some value, and then hopefully unload him to a team shopping for depth in the discontinued aisle at the deadline.

    He knows his NHL career is teetering on the edge of an abyss. As a coach and a GM, at least you know you’re getting a focused individual when you put him on the ice.

    Laggy deserves a shot now, but I didn’t mind “showcasing” The Freeway.

  131. pts2pndr says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Great
    Last year was Koskinen on repeat
    This year is a guy that most likely has 0 interest playing for the Oil ever again
    But maybe Spooner will finally get his chance

    OP is passionate on certain subjects ie the probable cost of acquiring Hall. He is also extremely honest and forthcoming when he is incorrect as in his ranking of Ethan Bear. It is fine to disagree but while I often disagree with OP I find his ideas very well thought out. Are you upset with the fact he has stated his opinion more than once or that you do not have a rational argument in rebutal.

  132. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    I would absolutely want Taylor Hall on the Oilers, in isolation

    I do not want Taylor Hall and his third contract on the Oilers (assuming its in the range of what I think it will be including 7-8 years).

    I think that length of contract is a presumption. We don’t know what we don’t know.

    Hall’s biggest concern is the Cup. I personally don’t think he signs for 7 anywhere.

  133. Munny says:

    OriginalPouzar: Of course, it was in direct response to a poster

    I don’t know if you realize this but your comment above about Hall was not a reply to anyone.

  134. Johnny skid says:

    leadfarmer: Last year was Koskinen on repeat

    that brings back bad memories!

  135. OriginalPouzar says:

    vance: The theory rattling around my brain is that the Oilers are showcasing Manning for a possible trade.

    Lagesson is up and receiving an NHL paycheque while standing by for the possible transaction.If and when it happens, Lagesson gets first shot at the opening at 3LD or 7th D

    Could be but I really don’t think that’s it – I think its Tippett trying to win hockey games and he “trusts” the veteran more than the guy with zero NHL games. Could be wrong.

  136. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Great
    Last year was Koskinen on repeat
    This year is a guy that most likely has 0 interest playing for the Oil ever again
    But maybe Spooner will finally get his chance

    I’ll continue to respond to the subject matter of the post that I choose, sorry if you don’t like it, can’t please everyone.

  137. leadfarmer says:

    pts2pndr,

    My opinions have been stated and don’t feel the need to repeat them every single time someone mentions the player
    Others can have an opinion without someone trying to drown out their opinion
    Yes we all get OP doesn’t want Hall
    He’s mentioned it before
    If someone thinks Hall would be a good addition he doesn’t need to drown them out

  138. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: Sheahan is a top-5 PK-er in the league and Jurco looks decent so far. That’s part of a 4th line…

    Holland did replace Lucic with Neal.

    And in Archibald, Granlund and Sheahan he added players (for $3.2M total) who’d have finished 6th, 7th and 8th among last years Oilers forwards in goals, 6th, 7th and 9th in points. If you’re keeping track that’s better than last years entire bottom 6 and one guy who played way too much on the 2nd line.

    To say the group that Holland brought in was “not good enough”, well that’s fair. To say they looked like they’d be as bad as last years bottom 6, or worse? That’s hyperbole and I don’t think it’s a view more than a couple of people held.

  139. drglen says:

    was expecting movement today.. did not occur.

  140. JimmyV1965 says:

    Wilde: They’re shooting at ~1.00%. Last year they got up around 4. I don’t know if the regression (which will happen) is going to get quite there, or any higher.

    It’s less about how good each individual player is (they’re all amongst the very flat distribution of player talent around replacement-level) but the duplicity of everyone’s skillset plus the encouraged tendencies from that factor and the coaching.

    There was a massive hole in shot generation in the inside last year with the bottom six on the ice, it’s back and over twice as bad. It’s not just shot location but also just a dearth of outside-in passing and one-timers.

    I hope after the new year when the young call-ups come, the line that’s constructed from them plays a different game.

    I agree there should be some regression and an improvement in the shooting percentage. I also agree they are basically putrid and this regression will not likely be meaningful. However, I also appreciate the improvement in the PK. The new guys have booted Kassian off the PK and I thought he was horrible. And they have removed McDavid, saving his minutes for more productive icetime.

    I’m not sure what to make of the bottom six. There’s no way they hang around for the entire year because they’re awful. If they somehow do hang around, I suspect their numbers will improve somewhat, making them more comparable to the steaming pile we had last year.

    The only realistic way we can fix the bottom six is through internal development IMO. Signing one or two free agents at $1 mill can help bolster a group developed internally, but when the entire bottom six is free agents, I think you’re asking for trouble. I suppose we can trade for some of these guys. Connor Brown would be a nice bet IMO. Maybe we can even trade for two. Is it possible to trade for an entire third line? Unlikely I think, but you never know I guess.

  141. Munny says:

    drglen:
    was expecting movement today.. did not occur.

    Have you tried eating prunes?

  142. drglen says:

    If someone is calling on JP… you know maybe do it. Make the playoffs. Even if his value is a little under… make the deal. Through in Khaira and make it happen. (unless of course JP does not want to come back to la liga. ) Just saying, pull the trigger on JP before bringing up the bake lads. All we have to do is make the playoffs.

  143. drglen says:

    JimmyV1965: I agree there should be some regression and an improvement in the shooting percentage. I also agree they are basically putrid and this regression will not likely be meaningful. However, I also appreciate the improvement in the PK. The new guys have booted Kassian off the PK and I thought he was horrible. And they have removed McDavid, saving his minutes for more productive icetime.

    I’m not sure what to make of the bottom six. There’s no way they hang around for the entire year because they’re awful. If they somehow do hang around, I suspect their numbers will improve somewhat, making them more comparable to the steaming pile we had last year.

    The only realistic way we can fix the bottom six is through internal development IMO. Signing one or two free agents at $1 mill can help bolster a group developed internally, but when the entire bottom six is free agents, I think you’re asking for trouble. I suppose we can trade for some of these guys. Connor Brown would be a nice bet IMO. Maybe we can even trade for two. Is it possible to trade for an entire third line? Unlikely I think, but you never know I guess.

    just need 1 more guy. Haas and Nygard will be OK… Sheehan workable on 4th.. I would do it because this season is playoff possible.

  144. drglen says:

    aha.. very good!

  145. Munny says:

    Honest question about the Bottom 6…

    Is our tirefire/60 better or worse than last year?

    (Don’t forget the Top 6 has been on for a few)

  146. Gerta Rauss says:

    Looks like FLA tuckered themselves out playing the Oilers last night

    5-1 Canucks after 1, early in the 2nd period now

  147. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Holland did replace Lucic with Neal.

    And in Archibald, Granlund and Sheahan he added players (for $3.2M total) who’d have finished 6th, 7th and 8th among last years Oilers forwards in goals, 6th, 7th and 9th in points. If you’re keeping track that’s better than last years entire bottom 6 and one guy who played way too much on the 2nd line.

    To say the group that Holland brought in was “not good enough”, well that’s fair. To say they looked like they’d be as bad as last years bottom 6, or worse? That’s hyperbole and I don’t think it’s a view more than a couple of people held.

    Vancouvers bottom six has scored 10 points in the first period tonight.
    Balance is a thing.

  148. Munny says:

    jp: Holland did replace Lucic with Neal.

    And in Archibald, Granlund and Sheahan he added players (for $3.2M total) who’d have finished 6th, 7th and 8th among last years Oilers forwards in goals, 6th, 7th and 9th in points. If you’re keeping track that’s better than last years entire bottom 6 and one guy who played way too much on the 2nd line.

    To say the group that Holland brought in was “not good enough”, well that’s fair. To say they looked like they’d be as bad as last years bottom 6, or worse? That’s hyperbole and I don’t think it’s a view more than a couple of people held.

    Well argued.

  149. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: I think that length of contract is a presumption. We don’t know what we don’t know.

    Hall’s biggest concern is the Cup.I personally don’t think he signs for 7 anywhere.

    Of course the length of contract is a presumption but its based off of historical data and the market. Yes, Hall has stated the cup matters most and I’m sure that will factor in to the destination, however, I’m quite confidant that contract terms will be right up there in importance. I would take those direct comments from Hall with a large grain of salt given the countless athletes that have said very similar things and gone on to sign large contracts. I’m confident that Tavares talked about wanting to win and then, boom, giant contract.

    Hall may very well see his injury history as well and realize that a long term contract makes the most sense and, if he doesn’t, I would guess his agent advises him of the same.

    I could be wrong – maybe he signs for a shorter term.

    I would have time to consider the player on a 4 year term under $9.5M but its still a risk. He hasn’t been worth that cap hit over the term of the last 4 years due to games played and I’m not sure its reasonable to think that he’ll be worth it over the next 4 years due to games played.

  150. OriginalPouzar says:

    Munny: I don’t know if you realize this but your comment above about Hall was not a reply to anyone.

    Well I guess technically it wasn’t – of course, it was right after the post by the guy who brought up Hall and his acquisition (and not for anywhere close to the first time, i might add) and to whom I have responded with similar responses (to never receive a response).

  151. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: Vancouvers bottom six has scored 10 points in the first period tonight.
    Balance is a thing.

    FLA coming down from a high on a back-to-back. Bad Bobo. You’re welcome.

    Hopefully the Cannots can hang on to a four goal lead. We don’t want to go by recent evidence and small sample sizes here. That would be wrong.

  152. Material Elvis says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Looks like FLA tuckered themselves out playing the Oilers last night

    5-1 Canucks after 1, early in the 2nd period now

    The dreaded 5-1 lead. Florida has the Nucks just where they want them.

  153. Gerta Rauss says:

    Munny:
    Honest question about the Bottom 6…

    Is our tirefire/60 better or worse than last year?

    (Don’t forget the Top 6 has been on for a few)

    The results thus far are concerning, there’s no denying that

    I’d like a larger sample size before we make sweeping statements however

    We’ve got 2 guys that had never played an NHL game before, on NHL size ice(Haas, Nygard) and 1 guy that may have been injured for one or more of the games he has played thus far(Archibald)

    I’d like to give these guys to the 20 game mark before we start throwing anybody overboard

    With that said, I hope Kenny is watching with interest and beating the bushes for 3C (I’d like a 2LW as well but first things first)

    One addition like a Pageau to this bottom six and pushing Sheahan down to 4C and suddenly the bottom six is passable

  154. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    pts2pndr,

    My opinions have been stated and don’t feel the need to repeat them every single time someone mentions the player
    Others can have an opinion without someone trying to drown out their opinion
    Yes we all get OP doesn’t want Hall
    He’s mentioned it before
    If someone thinks Hall would be a good addition he doesn’t need to drown them out

    Your don’t repeat your opinions on certain subjects? Come on, be honest with yourself here.

    Well, you are are actually wrong on my thoughts so maybe I do need to continue to post about. I would do not “not want Hall” – in fact, I’ve even post on here that if the Oilers were solidly in a playoff position come February I could be on board with renting him depending on acquisition cost.

    What I don’t want is what I anticipate is Hall’s next contract.

    As for your last sentence, this poster has expressed that opinion on Hall just as many times as I have expressed mine – its a daily thing so I’m not drowning out anything this poster said. Further, the primary reason I repeated my thoughts in this case was because a few people have provided a counter to this poster’s position and this poster never responds to the retorts and then reiterates his position, daily. I am trying to engage in an actual hockey discussion with him

    Now, I apologize if I’ve, once again, wasted your time having to read my opinion (which you could easily skip) but it seems like you have plenty of time to concern yourself with the posting style of others so maybe its not quite a big deal.

  155. Ryan says:

    Harpers Hair: Vancouvers bottom six has scored 10 points in the first period tonight.
    Balance is a thing.

    I was going to remark that Eriksson is a pretty good fourth liner, too bad he costs $6m per… Daily Faceoff has him in the 4RW slot. He’s only played 1 game this season? Is he injured?

    I do like Lowetide’s adopted son, Leivo, stupid that the Oilers didn’t trade for him.

    Daily Faceoff says that the Canucks have an elite second line, good third pairing then porridge.

  156. jp says:

    JimmyV1965: Something about this makes me a little uncomfortable. I’m not saying the bottom six is good. Clearly they’re not. But I think back to Brodziak last year and I know he scored 2 of his 6 goals in one game against the Wings. And I’m pretty sure he scored 4 of his 6 in one week. Who knows. Maybe Sheahan scores 4 in a week and someone else chips in another 3.

    The scoring levels for both groups are so putrid that it almost becomes a sample size issue. One week of good production from the group changes the numbers in a significant way.

    There was a lot of movement in the bottom six last year because they were awful. Here’s what I think are the most common bottom six players last year and their scoring.

    Khaira 3 goals
    Reider 0 goals
    Brodziak 6 goals
    Rattie 4 goals
    JP 4 goals

    I look at this group and see some very bad players. I just can’t see how they are any better than the group we have now, as underwhelming as it is. Our PK
    has improved dramatically this year as well and that counts for something.

    The numbers obviously don’t lie, butI can’t help but think it’s failing to capture something.

    Wilde showed that their SH% is super low, as well as pointing to part of the reason why. That’s only half of the story though.

    Their SV% is extremely low too and the end result is 1GF/11GA. Brought to you by an impossibly low PDO (less than .900).

    Another look at the Oilers 5v5 with the big 3 off:
    18-19
    TOI/Game 17:01

    SF/60 28.2
    SA/60 27.8

    GF/60 1.12
    GA/60 1.93

    xGF/60 2.04
    xGA/60 2.00

    SCF/60 21.7
    SCA/60 23.9

    SH% 3.97
    SV% 93.04
    PDO .970

    19-20
    TOI/Game 17:50

    SF/60 22.1
    SA/60 26.3

    GF/60 0.28
    GA/60 3.08

    xGF/60 1.58
    xGA/60 1.96

    SCF/60 14.6
    SCA/60 23.5

    SH% 1.27
    SV% 88.30
    PDO .896

    The current group is absolutely bad. Worst than last years even. But they’re still not nearly THIS bad.

    Also, despite allowing more than a goal more per 60 they look like they’re marginally better than last years group in the other the defensive metrics.

    As for how improve things going forward, aside waiting for a correction. I agree with pretty much everyone else that bringing some of the youngsters up is the main way. LT projected all of Benson, Marody and Yamamoto seeing close to half the season in the NHL after all, it’s not even unexpected.

    A smaller trade has a chance to help too, but it would be surprising to see anything major.

  157. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Vancouvers bottom six has scored 10 points in the first period tonight.
    Balance is a thing.

    It is. And it’s a lot easier to achieve when no one on your team has ever had a point per game season.

  158. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: Could be but I really don’t think that’s it – I think its Tippett trying to win hockey games and he “trusts” the veteran more than the guy with zero NHL games.Could be wrong.

    Your not. Tippett’s job is to make the playoffs up until yesterday Manning was adequately doing his.

  159. Harpers Hair says:

    Ryan: I was going to remark that Eriksson is a pretty good fourth liner, too bad he costs $6m per… Daily Faceoff has him in the 4RW slot. He’s only played 1 game this season? Is he injured?

    I do like Lowetide’s adopted son, Leivo, stupid that the Oilers didn’t trade for him.

    Daily Faceoff says that the Canucks have an elite second line, good third pairing then porridge.

    Not much happens when a Loui is on the ice so he’s been a healthy scratch.
    A huge $6m anchor but he drew in tonight because of an injury.
    Beagle, Leivo, Shaller, Virtanen and Pearson have all looked good in the bottom six.

  160. drglen says:

    kinda wish we had kept burdasov..

  161. Munny says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    3C is my dream.

    Well, Staal, really, but that’s a crack pipe dream.

  162. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: It is. And it’s a lot easier to achieve when no one on your team has ever had a point per game season.

    Petterson is currently at 1.2 PPG this season.
    I think they’ll be fine.

  163. JimmyV1965 says:

    Harpers Hair: Vancouvers bottom six has scored 10 points in the first period tonight.
    Balance is a thing.

    Problem is the Canucks bottom six makes about $20 mill. I know you’re trolling, but it’s obviously not a realistic option for the us, or anyone really.

  164. Harpers Hair says:

    JimmyV1965: Problem is the Canucks bottom six makes about $20 mill. I know you’re trolling, but it’s obviously not a realistic option for the us, or anyone really.

    Nonsense.
    The Canucks bottom six makes $15 million.
    Eriksson is just dead money wherever he plays.

  165. drglen says:

    Hollands idea of only paying a guy , well low middle cash, for a year (maybe 2) .. maybe not looking great after last game, but I really don’t think we would actually want Staal, don’t want to lock up these older guys for big money long term dollars as they fade away…. .. wait I stand corrected… basically 3.2 mill for 2 years… ya, we should have gone after staal. But he’s still a little high for what we could afford.

    Khaira would probably be a nice fit in Minni dont you think.

  166. drglen says:

    we just need to win a game… ..

  167. Pescador says:

    Munny:
    Gerta Rauss,

    3C is my dream.

    Well, Staal, really, but that’s a crack pipe dream.

    I dream of JG Pageau
    Pass that pipe over here

  168. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Petterson is currently at 1.2 PPG this season.
    I think they’ll be fine.

    Well if we’re talking about things that aren’t likely to sustain, Neal is a PPG and 2nd in the league in goals.

  169. Pescador says:

    jp: It is. And it’s a lot easier to achieve when no one on your team has ever had a point per game season.

    Haha
    Awesome

  170. Pescador says:

    Harpers Hair: Nonsense.
    The Canucks bottom six makes $15 million.
    Eriksson is just dead money wherever he plays.

    Well then its a good thing that Eriksson’s salary doesn’t count against the cap, right?
    Sorry the Canucks bottom 6 is paid $21M wherever Erickson plays

  171. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: Well if we’re talking about things that aren’t likely to sustain, Neal is a PPG and 2nd in the league in goals.

    Well…Neal’s shooting percentage is currently 27.8%.
    His career average is 11.9%

    Pettersson’s shooting percentage is currently 16.7%
    His career average is 19.1%.

    What do you think might happen here?

  172. Munny says:

    Pescador: I dream of JG Pageau
    Pass that pipe over here

    3C seems so impossible to solve when I think about it rationally.

    But markets aren’t rational (in the small) and Lucic got traded.

    My mind sucks on that pipe every night before sleep.

  173. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: Well…Neal’s shooting percentage is currently 27.8%.
    His career average is 11.9%

    Pettersson’s shooting percentage is currently 16.7%
    His career average is 19.1%.

    What do you think might happen here?

    No, I meant the Canucks being fine.

  174. Harpers Hair says:

    Pescador: Well then its a good thing that Eriksson’s salary doesn’t count against the cap, right?
    Sorry the Canucks bottom 6 is paid $21M wherever Erickson plays

    Nope.
    If Erikkson plays in the top 6 their bottom six is paid $15 million.
    Since it’s highly unlikely he plays much at all, it’s just dead money.

  175. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: No, I meant the Canucks being fine.

    They are fine.

    Best goal differential in the NHL even after blowing a big lead to Washington.

    5th in GF/G
    3rd in GA/G

    If they can get their PP cranked up, they’ll be scary.

  176. jp says:

    Harpers Hair: They are fine.

    Best goal differential in the NHL even after blowing a big lead to Washington.

    5th in GF/G
    3rd in GA/G

    If they can get their PP cranked up, they’ll be scary.

    But this is the Canucks window. They’re all in. This is it.

  177. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: What do you think might happen here?

    The Canucks fail to win Stanley? Y’know… Again?

    And, lol, you can omit the “might”.

    This is sweet. It’s so convenient not having to go to the Nuckelehead Boards to taunt Nuckleheads.

    Who knew they were dumb enough to make it this easy?

  178. Harpers Hair says:

    jp: But this is the Canucks window. They’re all in. This is it.

    Nah…they have one of the best prospect pools in the league.
    Lots of talent on the way.
    See Pronman for reference.

  179. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: The Canucks fail to win Stanley?Y’know… Again?

    And, lol, you can omit the “might”.

    This is sweet.It’s so convenient not having to go to the Nuckelehead Boards to taunt Nuckleheads.

    Who knew they were dumb enough to make it this easy?

    A very mature, thoughtful response to a question about math.

  180. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: A very mature, thoughtful response to a question about math.

    Trust me, it was given all the thought you give to your “Math”.

    And all the maturity you give towards your posts here.

    Nucks fans are so funny!

  181. Pescador says:

    Harpers Hair: Nope.
    If Erikkson plays in the top 6 their bottom six is paid $15 million.
    Since it’s highly unlikely he plays much at all, it’s just dead money.

    $6M in cap space being paid to a bottom 6 player.
    I do hope the Canucks play him in the top 6,
    Slice it whatever way you like, it’s still a baloney sandwich

  182. v4ance says:

    Pescador: $6M in cap space being paid to a bottom 6 player.
    I do hope the Canucks play him in the top 6,
    Slice it whatever way you like, it’s still a baloney sandwich

    Well… since HH is actually from the Tofino trailer park, I think it’s more of a “Mr. Lahey” kind of sandwich…

  183. ArmchairGM says:

    jp: Holland did replace Lucic with Neal.

    And in Archibald, Granlund and Sheahan he added players (for $3.2M total) who’d have finished 6th, 7th and 8th among last years Oilers forwards in goals, 6th, 7th and 9th in points. If you’re keeping track that’s better than last years entire bottom 6 and one guy who played way too much on the 2nd line.

    I didn’t include Neal because we were talking specifically about the bottom-6.

    – Arizona owned Archibald’s rights and didn’t bother to qualify him, instead letting him walk as a UFA. If they thought he had any value at all the would have qualified and traded him for a pick. While going off another team’s analysis of their player isn’t perfect, it is a warning bell. NOTE: they could have signed him for $770k. Holland offered him $1M.

    – Vancouver owned Granlund’s rights and didn’t bother to qualify him, instead letting him walk as a UFA. If they thought he had any value at all the would have qualified and traded him for a pick. While going off another team’s analysis of their player isn’t perfect, it is a warning bell. NOTE: they would have had to qualify him at $1.475M. Holland offered him $1.3M.

    Both these guys would be decent bets to play 13th forward at league minimum.

    jp: To say the group that Holland brought in was “not good enough”, well that’s fair. To say they looked like they’d be as bad as last years bottom 6, or worse? That’s hyperbole and I don’t think it’s a view more than a couple of people held.

    I said in the summer that Holland’s bottom-6 was not better than Chiarelli’s bottom-6. I did not predict that they would be worse. And I’m on record as speaking positively about the late summer Sheahan signing. He doesn’t move the needle offensively but he’s a top-5 PKer in this league, and that fills a huge need for this team.

  184. Sierra says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    McDavid off is worse than previous years.

  185. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Your not. Tippett’s job is to make the playoffs up until yesterday Manning was adequately doing his.

    That’s an aggressive use of the word “adequate”. I agree he had a couple adequate games but his play had declined over the last 3-4 and I don’t understand while Lagesson, who could be better right now (we just don’t know), didn’t receive an at bat.

  186. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: I didn’t include Neal because we were talking specifically about the bottom-6.

    – Arizona owned Archibald’s rights and didn’t bother to qualify him, instead letting him walk as a UFA. If they thought he had any value at all the would have qualified and traded him for a pick. While going off another team’s analysis of their player isn’t perfect, it is a warning bell. NOTE: they could have signed him for $770k. Holland offered him $1M.

    – Vancouver owned Granlund’s rights and didn’t bother to qualify him, instead letting him walk as a UFA. If they thought he had any value at all the would have qualified and traded him for a pick. While going off another team’s analysis of their player isn’t perfect, it is a warning bell. NOTE: they would have had to qualify him at $1.475M. Holland offered him $1.3M.

    Both these guys would be decent bets to play 13th forward at league minimum.

    I said in the summer that Holland’s bottom-6 was not better than Chiarelli’s bottom-6. I did not predict that they would be worse. And I’m on record as speaking positively about the late summer Sheahan signing. He doesn’t move the needle offensively but he’s a top-5 PKer in this league, and that fills a huge need for this team.

    I mentioned Lucic because he played large parts of last season in the bottom 6 and Holland turned him into an apparently useful top 6.

    Archibald and Granlund were full time NHLers last season who between them were -3 at even strength on two non-playoff teams. They also outscored all but 5 Oilers forwards last year. Calling them “decent bets to play 13th forward” is hyperbole. Likewise, saying in Sheahan and Jurco the Oilers have 2/3 of a 4th line and nothing else is not a reasonable position.

    You spent most of the summer arguing Holland should have signed 2 top 6 forwards, how were you planning to improve the bottom 6 anyway?

  187. ArmchairGM says:

    jp:Archibald and Granlund were full time NHLers last season who between them were -3 at even strength on two non-playoff teams. They also outscored all but 5 Oilers forwards last year. Calling them “decent bets to play 13th forward” is hyperbole.

    No it isn’t. Archie and Granny are 13th forward material. Now that Oilers fans have watched them for ~10 games, this should be obvious. Vancouver media stated same last spring about Granny. You can’t judge players solely on boxcars.

    jp: Likewise, saying in Sheahan and Jurco the Oilers have 2/3 of a 4th line and nothing else is not a reasonable position.

    It’s not? I thought it was generally accepted on this forum that Sheahan would make a decent 4th line center, and that he was playing above his head as the 3C. Jurco has been decent in this role too, he has been spotted up the lineup due to nobody else on the roster having enough skill to warrant a look there, but I don’t think anyone here is going to argue that Jurco is a 2nd line winger solution. Other than that:

    – Chiasson might be a decent bottom-6 player if he can find consistency, but so far nothing.
    – Haas played a handful of games and then got demoted and his recall is injury-related – I think it’s fair to say he’s not a regular bottom-6 player at this point, and whether he’ll ever be one looks unlikely.
    – Nygard hasn’t shown much, he seems like a poor man’s Drake Cagguila to me.
    – Khaira is looking like a non-NHLer right now. I liked his game 2 years ago, hopefully he can get back to it.

    jp: You spent most of the summer arguing Holland should have signed 2 top 6 forwards, how were you planning to improve the bottom 6 anyway?

    Pretty sure I made this abundantly clear in the off season.

    In short, the Neal trade was a masterstroke among a whole lot of MEH last summer. At least none of the MEH was signed for more than 2 years, if he can make one great move every summer the team will get a little better every year.

  188. Pescador says:

    v4ance: Well… since HH is actually from the Tofino trailer park, I think it’s more of a “Mr. Lahey” kind of sandwich…

    That would be a shit sandwich I believe

  189. jp says:

    ArmchairGM: No it isn’t. Archie and Granny are 13th forward material. Now that Oilers fans have watched them for ~10 games, this should be obvious. Vancouver media stated same last spring about Granny. You can’t judge players solely on boxcars.

    Media say a lot of things. And only boxcars? I said in the quoted post that the two essentially broke even in their minutes last year. That’s what we’re aiming for no?

    ArmchairGM:
    It’s not? I thought it was generally accepted on this forum that Sheahan would make a decent 4th line center, and that he was playing above his head as the 3C. Jurco has been decent in this role too, he has been spotted up the lineup due to nobody else on the roster having enough skill to warrant a look there, but I don’t think anyone here is going to argue that Jurco is a 2nd line winger solution. Other than that:

    No, saying (implying) that Sheahan and Jurco are the only even 4th line quality players available to the Oilers is not reasonable IMO.

    You’re welcome to the last word on this, if you want it. I unfortunately don’t have time today to keep going back and forth on this.

  190. Leroy Draisdale says:

    drglen:
    was expecting movement today.. did not occur.

    Have you tried Prune Juice?

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca