It was a strange month for the Edmonton Oilers and its fans. A stunning start that saw the team overcome the loss of its best (only?) shutdown defenseman, a start by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for the ages, and goaltending that delivered well beyond expectations. Now. Chapter two.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, there is a Puck Drop Special offer here.
- New Lowetide: Sheahan hurt, Oilers in need of a two-way centre; some candidates emerging
- New Jonathan Willis: Handicapping the chase for the Calder after the first month of the 2019-20 NHL season
- Jonathan Willis: Unproductive Oilers forwards are in danger of losing their jobs — and soon
- Lowetide: Analyzing the current state of the Edmonton Oilers goaltending.
- Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers trade for a veteran NHL defenceman?
- Lowetide: Oilers first-round pick Philip Broberg increases his role; Condors’ Caleb Jones looks NHL-ready
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I don’t think anyone’s feeling comfortable’: Oilers’ Holland pleased but cautious amid early improvements.
- Lowetide: Josh Archibald’s injury and limited replacements available puts some pressure on Oilers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 4 reasons why the Oilers passed their first true test of the season
- Lowetide: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and James Neal are leading a quality Oilers second line
- Lowetide: Assessing the early season progress of Oilers’ defence and goaltending
- Jonathan Willis: A rare success during Edmonton’s long rebuild, why Oscar Klefbom is the model for finishing Oilers’ blue line
- Lowetide: Jesse Puljujarvi’s impressive Liiga performance headlines Oilers prospects this week
- Jonathan Willis: Can the Oilers afford to pursue Taylor Hall in free agency?
- Corey Pronman: Oilers No. 9 farm system.
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
OILERS IN OCTOBER
- Oilers in October 2015: 5-9-0, 10 points; goal differential -6
- Oilers in October 2016: 9-4-1, 19 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in October 2017: 5-8-1, 11 points; goal differential -12
- Oilers in October 2018: 8-5-1, 17 points; goal differential +1
- Oilers in October 2019: 9-4-1, 19 points, goal differential +7
This team lands in a tie for the best since McDavid arrived, marching in lock step with 2015 and just ahead of last season. I think fans remain worried about a repeat of one year ago, but injuries (Klefbom and Russell in the same game) can’t be anticipated and overreaction (Strome trade, McLellan firing, Manning and Petrovic) is unlikely. Enjoy the ride, if you can.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: Vancouver, Los Angeles (Expected: 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: NYI, NJD, NYR, CHI (Expected 2-1-1) Actual (3-1-0)
- At home to: Philadelphia, Detroit (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: Winnipeg, Minnesota (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
- At home to: Washington, Florida (Expected 1-1-0)(Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: Detroit, Columbus (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 9-4-1, 19 points after 14 games
Splendid! Now, people are going to bitch about the splits (7-1-0 start, 2-3-1 coda) but teams have ebb and flow just like everything else. There’s a lot to be happy about this morning in Oilers nation. Halloween is not always a happy time. All numbers five-on-five, all numbers via NST.
LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 10:34, going 9-8 Corsi, 3-2 shots, 1-0 goals and 1-2 HDSC. I thought this line was slow in Detroit, but 24 hours later they found the magic.
Leon Draisaitl had a big night, scoring (including all disciplines) 2-1-3 with the goals at five on five. Who’s zooming who? Connor McDavid had a power-play assist and a takeaway, I was impressed with his forechecking effort. Zack Kassian had an assist, a HDSC and an unwise penalty.
LINE 2 Jujhar Khaira-Nuge-Sam Gagner played 8:36, 12-8 Corsi, 5-5 shots, 1-0 goals and 4-4 HDSC. What a great line, two games in a row.
Jujhar Khaira scored a goal and that’s a relief for everyone. As important, he was involved around the puck all night. Two shots, three HDSC and he was moving his feet for 60. Music! Nuge had two assists, three shots and was quality. Sam Gagner had an assist and made good decisions with the puck consistently. Such a good player.
LINE 3 Alex Chiasson-Gaetan Haas-James Neal played 7:37, going 9-7 Corsi, 6-6 shots, no goals and 1-3 HDSC.
Alex Chiasson had an assist, a shot and a HDSC. He was moving his feet well and sending the puck to good places. Gaetan Haas had a shot and a giveaway, he just needs to speed up his motor when he has the puck. There is a player here. James Neal scored a goal on the PP, he’s money in the offensive zone.
LINE 4 Markus Granlund-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 3:16, 0-2 Corsi, 0-1 shots, no goals and no HDSC.
Markus Granlund had a takeaway and broke his stick and skated around for a long time on a PK that was doomed. Riley Sheahan got hit by PLD and left the game late in the first period. Patrick Russell had two shots and two HDSC. He’s getting closer.
OILERS 2019-20
PAIRING ONE Oscar Klefbom and Joel Persson played 15:25 and had 18-16 Corsi, 8-9 shots, 1-0 goals and 4-5 HDSC.
Oscar Klefbom looked miles more comfortable with Persson, the veteran had three shots and two blocks. Looks a little slower skating back lately, wonder if there’s a hitch. Persson passed the puck effectively and recovered well. He helps this team, a better 2RHD for this group than Russell in spite of coverage issues and lack of familiarity with the league.
PAIRING TWO Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 14:36 and went 16-7 Corsi, 5-4 shots, no goals and 3-1 HDSC.
Darnell Nurse had a takeaway and a couple of blocked shots, played mostly clean minutes. Ethan Bear drew a penalty and had a blocked shot. Passing and clean exits were commonplace on the night, making transitions easier. Bear was a big part of it.
PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 13:00 and went 9-7 Corsi, 8-2 shots, 1-0 goals and 1-1 HDSC.
The duo played well, no major issues and Benning’s outlet passing helped Russell’s weakest areas. Russell had two shots on goal, blocked a shot and had several snow angels. Benning drew a penalty and delivered outlet passes that worked.
GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 23 of 24, .975. He played well. Very demonstrative when pucks go in, wonder if that irritates his teammates. Goaltending hasn’t been the issue through the first month. In fact, it has been a strength.
NATIONALS
Being an orphan is damned difficult, in the sports sense. When the Expos no longer had a church home of their own, neither did I. I remain hopeful a team will return to Montreal in my lifetime, but this run by the Nationals was easily the best baseball experience for this fan in well over a decade. So, thanks to the Nats, to their beautiful 6-man pitching staff, to Rendon, Soto, Kendrick, Zimmerman and the rest. It meant a lot to see the remnants and the roll ends find the promised land. Well done.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we have a fun show planned and I hope you can join us. Jonah Birenbaum from The Score will pop in at 10:20 to talk World Series and the Nats win. Frank Seravalli from TSN will talk Oilers, Halloween costumes and trade rumors. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
Just like the Wild, eh? Or are they not your flavour of the month anymore? hehe …
The better name would be:
Seattle Sockeye.
The plural is the same as the singular, and it just sounds better.
This assumes Muzzin and his family want to finish his career in a cold weather fishbowl. After living the California lifestyle in relative anonymity for years thats a big if to say the least.
Twice fold they did this also they burned a bunch of cars too.
For November, here’s who might have it easiest based only on average opponent expected win percentage:
1. Carolina Hurricanes: 0.471
2. San Jose Sharks: 0.471
3. Minnesota Wild: 0.483
4. Boston Bruins: 0.487
5. Tampa Bay Lightning: 0.489
That’s great for the Sharks who have looked cooked to start the season. November gives them a chance to turn their season around.
And toughest:
1. Buffalo Sabres: 0.536
2. St. Louis Blues: 0.521
3. New York Rangers: 0.517
4. Chicago Blackhawks: 0.517
5. Philadelphia Flyers: 0.516
The Sabres are off to a dream start, but November will do a lot to prove whether this team is the real deal or not. The Canucks, for what it’s worth, have the sixth toughest schedule.
https://theathletic.com/1340117/2019/10/31/16-stats-colorados-depth-doing-damage-vancouvers-stars-shine-and-nashvilles-power-play-comes-alive/
All good.
TOR might also see teams that need forwards and have lots of D coming from a mile away.
I think EDM and TOR might make interesting trade partners as each has what the other covets.
TOR has good young forwards and EDM has good young Dmen.
They have a lot of forwards they can trade for D as well.
They can also decide to re-sign Muzzin and Barrie, although I think Barrie walks.
Cap space doesn’t have to equal “spent on Free Agents”
Those were the most tangible seven minutes in hockey history.
Nope, that’s not even what I was saying.
Was hopeful for league average tending – as per above.
There is no spin – its in the words in the posts memorialized.
Absolutely I bitched about the contract and, at this very moment, it remains a huge mistake by Chiarelli and a terrible signing at the time.
Absolutely I bitched about Mikko’s play after the contract was signed and down the stretch. His play was simply not good enough. I acknowledged some mitigating factors (i.e. over-played) but my opinion was clear and it remains the same, his play was not good.
During the spring I was adamant that an experienced back-up/1B goalie was needed due to not being able to count on Koskinen being a legit NHL starter this coming season and I was skeptical that Koskinen would be able to improve much as I felt he regressed through last year.
At the same time, a few weeks after the Smith signing, months before the season, I provided my opinion of the chance to have decent tending this year on the premise that we have two tenders who have the proven ability to get hot for stretches and carry a team and I was hopeful that they would essentially “trade off” their hot streaks.
I didn’t imagine both just “being solid” each and every night but I did have some cautious optimism that tending wouldn’t be a problem.
Feel free to go back through the blogs – it’ll be right there for you to see.
You’re right, he might not be wrong about Koskinen.
I just find it funny that he’s now saying he predicted league average goaltending.
After he’s spent the last 6 months trashing Koskinen and his contract.
He’s not wrong yet. Lot of track left.
C’mon OP. You’re an easy target.
You can spin your words anyway you like, but you spent all spring and summer bitching about Koskinen and his contract on this blog. Now you’re trying to tell us you predicted league average goaltending for the Oilers this year?
When you have an opinion about EVERYTHING Oilers, and post each opinion dozens of times, you’re gonna be wrong once in a while.
I just find it entertaining to point out when you are wrong.
Tyler Benson has 75 points as a pro, Kole Lind has what, 25 or so? Jesus you must have been at the Rod n Gun tonight
kgo,
More than 6 minutes too many, probably.
Lucic played less than 7 minutes EV against the preds!
Harpers Hair,
You spark discussion, well done! Even if I think it’s drivel, sometimes you make a point! The Canucks are a fun team this year, I’m excited to see how this ends!
Edit: I’m back from the bar and it’s an LT blog, noone will see this, hi Ziggy!
“Lighten up, Francis.”
Sorry OP, but trying to win an argument with HH is a fool’s errand. The Canucks have some great prospects. So do we. Only time will tell. The vast majority of his posts are disingenuous and not worth responding to.
You forgot the rioting and vandalism these same “fans” beset upon their own city.
Ha ha
lol
Oh man!
Any chance you still have her phone number?
Asking for a friend
OP, must be pretty good coffee.
Canucks history.
Booed team Canada off the ice in 1972.
Lost in the final to the Islanders in 1982.
Lost in the final to the New York Oilers in 1994.
Lost in the Final to the Bruins in 2011.
I can honestly say I’ve never met any die-hard Canuck fans through thick and thin. They are by far the most fair weather fans in Canada.
Cherry Picking. Cherry Bombing. Cherry Carpeting.
Calling that an argument is too kind. It’s just goal posts on wheels and they even move mid sentence.
So we have to narrow the criteria to the AHL just because it fits your narrative?
You list included “prospects” that are almost 25 years old – its a dishonest argument.
Brandon Davidson is outscoring Juolevi – I guess Davidson is the better prospect….
Yes, he was implying exactly that, given his previous post to me.
Just becuase you say the roster and the prospects are better does not make it so.
The Oilers have more points that the Canucks right now – now sure how the Canucks are far better.
Just because you like the balance better doesn’t make the team better.
Hughes and Demko are no longer prospects – they are on that roster that is not producing at far better levels than the Oilers. They were the canucks 1st and 3rd ranked prospect.
Bear is no longer a prospect – he was the 13th ranked Oilers prospect.
These are the most advanced prospects from both teams.
Before you go off on another rant, remember the Canucks also have prospects still in junior, in the NCAA and Europe.
But as of now, the Canucks prospects are outperforming their Oiler counterparts by a wide margin.
I’m not missing the big picture – you were appalled that he was killing that penalty in that instant – an instant where his top two penalty killers (Sheahan and Archibald) were not available and it was a massive moment on the game.
His SH TOI/Game has been reduced but there are also situations that call for certain deployment.
Other than that shift, Drai had 0 second on the PK in the game.
Loui has actually been playing okay for a couple of games but is a a bigger drag than Sockeye Sue.
Oh my god, an 8-game AHL sample size is not even close to indicative of an organization’s prospects.
Three of the Oilers top 5 prospects are not even on that list and not to mention that massive age discrepancy.
Wow.
I think it’s telling that, prior to acquiring Barrie, Dubas was rumored to be interested in Larsson.
Add that to Muzzin and his appreciation of Nurse and you get the feeling that Dubas values dmen who can defend at a high level.
I’ll defer to you on the numbers when it comes to Barrie. Personally, I’m not a fan of his at all. Style over substance. Babcock is going to have to find a way to hide him.
No just a co-worker. The boys and Sue we’re fishing in I believe Rupert and one of boys reeled in a big Sockeye and was having trouble stunning it. Well Sue had enough of watching this performance grabbed the fish and cold cocked it with one punch. From that day foreword her name was Sockeye Sue.
You forgot Loui Erickson
Oooh…oooh.
Hughes is so much better than any Oiler prospect it’s not fair.
He’s in the same time frame as Bear who, while very good, is not in the same universe.
Juolevei is outscoring Bouchard.
Jett Woo is much closer to the NHL than Broberg.
Kole Lind is much better than Lavoie
And the Oilers don’t even have a Tyler Madden
Probably better than my second wife, Toothless Tammy
She ran off with my brother, broke my heart
C’mon OP, surely you can see the humour in his post
He wasn’t implying that your first sentence is untrue
He was implying that your second sentence – the one about restating an opinion dozens of times(your words, not mine) sums up your posting history perfectly
Calm your tits
Ignore or mock trolls. They don’t actually argue.
Sounds familiar. Anyone know a troll who picked one GM as the examplar to troll with here and when it did not work out jumped to the next and the next? Yeah jump next to whatever 3/4 Billion can buy. Imagine needing to play the whole field against one team. Weak trolling.
The current roster and the farm system are easily better.
The Canucks have a very credible bottom six and the Oilers have a Sea of Granlunds.
Jake Virtanen, Tanner Pearson, Jay Beagle, Josh Leivo, Adam Gaudette and Tim Schaller are all better than ANY Oiler bottom six forward.
Argue all you like.
I’ll trust Pronman’s top-to-bottom AHL-plus analysis on that, thanks.
Both teams are middling but the Oiler narrative is more compelling, IMO (and I’ve been in BC for 20+ yrs and should be won over in a sea of car-flags, but nah).
Holland and Tippett are doing some nice things. Canucks have drafted well. Vancouver is a fair-weather hockey thing, no one talks about them now like in the Olympic era.
After all, this blog has no Canuck parallel, case closed!
Harpers Hair,
Oooh oooh
What about Reid Boucher and Sven Bartschi
Those are the real Uttica stars
Juolevi is really more suspect than prospect at this point
I had Canucks ranked higher than Oil in prospects in offseason
But that’s only because of Hughes.
Hughes is the top prospect between the two teams but then the next several spots are Oil prospects with Broberg Bouchard Bear Lavoie
Canucks 10 OV pick looks like he belongs on our bottom 6
And I’m guessing you married her.
Where did she come from, where did she goo?
Nice.
Pettersson, Boeser, Hughes and Horvat are very special players.
Worth the price of admission.
You’re missing the bigger picture. Drai shouldn’t be killing penalties to the extent he does. That’s what ya boi Kenny Dutch got all those role players for. It’s not bad now, but like with the goalies, fatigue is a real possibility. Now, would you rather have Drai at 22 mins a night, fresh and terrorising the league in the run up to playoffs, or tired and not much use for anything because Tip’s got him doing back to back 26+ mins to eke out Bettman points?
If the bottom six can’t score, then at least they can let the ones who can rest.
I don’t think this team is as far away from good as Kenny obviously thinks. Some astute actual players in the bottom six and we may be in business.
I once knew a woman named Sockeye Sue.
Nope.
Francis Perron 1.33 PPG
Kole Lind: 1.13 PPG
Olli Juolevi 0.63 PPG
Brogan Rafferty 0.63PPG
Kyler Yamamoto 0.67 PPG
Tyler Benson 0.67 PPG
Cooper Marody 0.56 PPG
Evan Bouchard 0.44 PPPG
Not only are the Canucks prospects killing the Oilers prospects but the Comets are 8-0-0 and the Condors are 3-5-1
The Condors have scored 23 goals in 9 games.
The Comets have scored 39 goals in 8 games.
This is a bloodbath.