The old Yankees manager Casey Stengel used to say there were 50 games a season where skill, luck and circumstance guaranteed a win, and 50 games where the same elements guaranteed a loss. Stengel would say that it was the other 50 games that would win the pennant or get you fired. The Anaheim game was one of those wins for Edmonton, they were going to win and it was established early. Last night in San Jose the other side of the coin appeared. Shiza happens, folks. That’s the way of the world.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Several drivers make the grade but Edmonton’s bus still has a few passengers
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: From 4 to 97, Oilers both new and old share the stories behind their jersey numbers
- New Jonathan Willis: Could a fall trade improve the fortunes of your NHL team in 2019-20?
- New Lowetide: Analyzing Dave Tippett’s defensive usage and what the Oilers will do when Adam Larsson returns
- Lowetide: What’s going on with the Bakersfield Condors?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shines, mad props for Leon Draisaitl and more to like as the Oilers beat the Devils
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What inexperienced defencemen like the Oilers’ Joel Persson must do to gain their coach’s confidence
- Lowetide: Oilers are closer to having an effective second line than a year ago, but few have noticed
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The beauty of a good night’s sleep can be elusive for many NHL players
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers were wise to gamble on Tomas Jurco, even though it didn’t pan out
- Jonathan Willis: The unlikely goalie performances underpinning the Oilers’ hot start
- Lowetide: How far away is Evan Bouchard and what role will he play with the Oilers?
- Scott Wheeler: Analyzing Jesse Puljujarvi’s play in Finland to see what he could offer as an NHLer
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers right to wait until they’re sure before recalling Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Can Leon Draisaitl score more than 50 goals this season?
- Minnia Feng: The 2019-20 Oilers fan guide to emotions and stressful circumstances
- Jonathan Willis: How much will the Oilers have to pay to keep pending free agent Zack Kassian?
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.
OILERS AFTER 20
- Oilers in 2015: 7-12-1, 15 points; goal differential -8
- Oilers in 2016: 11-8-1, 23 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in 2017: 7-11-2, 16 points; goal differential -13
- Oilers in 2018: 9-10-1, 19 points; goal differential -9
- Oilers in 2019: 12-6-2, 26 points; goal differential +9
We’re back to having a direct comparable (2016) but the 2019 Oilers have been able to avoid losing streaks of any length and that bodes well. Edmonton had a bad game. It’ll happen again. Just make sure “again” isn’t tomorrow night.
OILERS IN NOVEMBER
- Oilers in November 2015: 2-4-0, four points; goal differential -4
- Oilers in November 2016: 2-3-1, five points; goal differential -4
- Oilers in November 2017: 3-3-0, six points; goal differential -2
- Oilers in November 2018: 2-4-0, four points; goal differential -6
- Oilers in November 2019: 3-2-1, seven points; goal differential +4
2019 November remains the best result through six games and the goal differential remains solid. A winning streak wouldn’t go amiss.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
- On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 3-2-1, 7 points after six games
Oilers are on pace for my predicted point total at the end of the month, actually just a hair ahead. The two games that remain this week are important, don’t believe it’s reasonable to expect two wins against Denver and Dallas.
OILERS 2019-20
I’m not going to write much about the game. NST has the details. Dave Tippett said postgame “it shows a little of the immaturity of the group to sustain things. It wasn’t a good effort by our group right through” and that’s a succinct summary. I do have a few notes:
Zack Kassian is on his way to a career season and he’s going to get a substantial contract. Can the Oilers afford him? You can roll your eyes, but a physical, agitating winger who scores 20+ goals and 50+ points has real value. Kassian had three HDSC at five-on-five last night and he fed Hertl a little after his hit on 97.
Ethan Bear does something most every night to impress and even on a night when he made some miscues his defending on a two-on-one was quality.
Call me blood thirsty but I’m ten times fine with Brandon Manning’s reaction to the Hertl hit on McDavid. NHL players react to every hit by going over the top but when the franchise takes a shot like that one then it should be answered imo. In a game long lost, Manning taking on a Sharks player is fine by me.
Mike Smith stopped 19 of 25 and to my eye several were 10-bell or late tips. I don’t think he was the culprit and that’s unusual because many nights Smith is hero or goat. In the summer, when he signed, I asked Catherine Silverman (who knows goalies) about Smith. Silverman: “Sometimes, he’s the goaltender who can face record-breaking shot volumes and shut the opposition down, but other times he’s the goaltender who allowed four goals on just 23 shots.” Last night he was neither and that’s worth noting.
PATRICK RUSSELL
For a guy with no goals, he sure has a lot of chances. NST’s individual high-danger scoring chances per 60 shines a light on Russell and what he’s been doing in the offensive zone during 2019-20. Here are the leaders in the category:
- Connor McDavid 5.29
- Zack Kassian 4.95
- Alex Chiasson 4.28
- Patrick Russell 4.21
- Leon Draisaitl 3.98
Now. We can argue about the NST measurement of HDSC’s and we can certainly agree that Edmonton needs more skill wingers. However, Patrick Russell is getting those chances on a depth line and to my eye he has been getting them consistently. I don’t really have a point to make beyond it, and do recognize Russell isn’t a high skill player likely to cash 20 percent of these chances. I guess my point is this: If he keeps playing in the NHL and sustains this chance/60 number, some of these pucks are going to start going in.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we’ll hit the ground running in our work boots tearing down last night’s game and looking forward to the rest of the week. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey will give his opinion on the loss in San Jose last night. We’ll also chat about what happens when Adam Larsson returns. Kris Abbott from OddsShark will pop in to chat CFL playoffs, NFL weekend and NCAA playoff slotting. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Oilers No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
https://theathletic.com/1383877/2019/11/17/lowetide-oilers-no-1-prospect-winter-2019-evan-bouchard/
No one is saying that. I’m a proponent of free speach.
These arguments get made by far right bigots also though and anyone who really loves freedom has to speak up in these cases.
My grandfather payed a terrible price to stop the Nazi’s.
I’m not about to give their ilk any quarter today.
Does this stance have legs it if you’re not using extreme examples like hatespeech or violence against women?
Nobody’s advocating tolerance against illegal acts. But cancel culture has extended far beyond these black & white examples to include grey areas or social mores that some just find distasteful.
At its crux, who are you to tell me what i should think or say and vice versa, simply because you have a differing opinion?
Again, this is why we have due process. Regulating human behaviour through mob tactics is so 15th century. We have to be better than this or we’re regressing imo.
I still stand by the fact that you’re using the term ‘intersectional’ wrong. I also stand by the fact that there exists an equal number of folks on the right, including on university campuses like the one I teach at who refuse to engage in any meaningful level of discourse with those they disagree with as well. This isn’t just a ‘the left silences debate’ issue; partisan politics and refusals to engage cut both ways.
As to Wilde‘s point re: the Palestine debate, as someone who’s been on the front lines of that for about 15 years, I can assure you those who hold a critical position on Israeli policy are often shunted to the margins of acceptable discourse, have a harder time getting published in peer-reviewed journals that aren’t region-specific, have greater difficulty getting interviews for tenure-track positions and generally within the north-south axis of the overton window you’ve decided to use are viewed as right on the edge of radical and unthinkable. As a pro-Palestine Jewish person, I know exactly how many doors have been closed in my face, both academically and personally. It’s the reason I write about sports now. Jewish and Palestinian scholars have even had their tenure revoked or denied for being open about their perspectives on the situation over there. The Steven Salaita case comes to mind, as does Norman Finkelstein.
I’ve offered to chat with you off-line at least a few times over the years and will extend that same offer again now (stephensheps (at) gmail (dot) com). Consider this an open invitation to practice what you preach.
You’re absolutely right. In this case there was a lot of flack being thrown at one side – it is reasonable IMO to point it out when an accuser is also guilty. I agree both are wrong.
Fully agreed also with your other post. Well said.
This is one of the saddest aspects of cancel culture. When either side of the political spectrum is confronted with the lack of grace aspect of this behaviour, the immediate reaction is to defend the behaviour by saying the other side does it too.
We need to appreciate that the technology is triggering fight or flight responses. Society needs to elevate above those reactions. We can be defined by the fights we avoid as opposed to the fights we pick.
Imagine a scenario where CBC organized a round table of differing opinions including Don Cherry to discuss his comments. Rather than censoring thought, we’d explore these issues to better understand what motivates them and how they can be best mitigated. Imo that is what an enlightened society would do as opposed to the finger pointing witch hunt mentality that dominates the discourse now.
Two wrongs don’t make a right.
If they have been under attack for decades, they clearly exist within the Overton window, and have not been cancelled. A privilege the intersectionalists do not allow for people on campus who disagree with them.
Had it yesterday. Went well. Cheers!
What you are proposing is putting a young developing D in a position to fail. The vast majority of the posters and I believe you were also vocal against same. This is also akin to the idea of where best to put a hole in your boat before going out on the lake. Bear was put with Nurse in preseason not almost 20 games in. What you are proposing is very very different.
In that case I agree. There was quite a bit of talk about him here so I figured you were a proponent. Good luck on the interview.
No interest. Just the first thing that flashed when I opened it up. Found it funny.
Did they mention all of the professors and academics that have been under attack for decades for having the opinion that Palestinians deserve human rights?
I highly doubt Tippett puts him with Klefbom (JMO).
My guess is 3LD, not sure if it will be with Russell or Benning on his right. (actually my guess is Persson stays in and Jones sits for tonight at least).
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/12/adam-serwer-civility/600784/
“Trumpists lamenting civility’s decline do not fear fractiousness; on the contrary, they happily practice it to their own ends. What they really fear is the cultural, political, and economic shifts that occur when historically marginalized groups begin to exert power in a system that was once defined by their exclusion. Social mores that had been acceptable become offensive; attitudes that had been widely held are condemned.
Societies are constantly renegotiating the boundaries of respect and decency. This process can be disorienting; to the once dominant group, it can even feel like oppression. (It is not.) Many of the same people who extol the sanctity of civility when their prerogatives are questioned are prone to convulsions over the possibility of respecting those they consider beneath them, a form of civility they deride as “political correctness.”“
I was thinking the same. Both sides are guilty of this.
IMO, the deployment of the called up AHL defensemen this year has all to do with our new system. Bear and Persson got it and played well within it in camp and the preseason, and the others didn’t.
This is a crucial few months for buy-in and reinforcement, so throwing a player who didn’t buy in or impress in camp/preseason has a bit of risk involved, you want to give the player a shot and not ride the pressbox, but also don’t want to introduce rookie mistakes into the equation, especially after an ugly loss where we abandoned things/didn’t compete in the first period.
Bear was always ahead of Jones in play without the puck, so I can see Jones getting an opportunity while Larsson is out, and not the be all immediate 2RD that is being assumed due to footspeed and on the puck play.
Kassian looks like he’ll have a better season than any of Ferland’s this year as well.
The National Post is doing an in-depth examination of free speech or lack thereof, on campus.
Highly recommended for those with an interest,
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/beyond-jordan-peterson-free-speech-on-campus?video_autoplay=true
Now take that view forward a year and you can see where the logic leads to the possibility of exploring trade options for Nurse or Larsson within the next calendar year, especially if Nurse asks too much in contract extension talks.
I proposed exploring a trade of Nurse a month ago but there was pushback from some more vocal critics because they couldn’t see the oncoming flood of good D on the cusp of readiness.
Very impressive, but click on his name. He has no history of those kind of results.
Also his NHL totals are 119-6-19-25.
I’m not sure what the interest is in this player.
Very sad, but very true. I fear for the long term health effects of some of these players with repeat concussions. It will impact them for the remaining decades of their life.
Kassian hasn’t had Concussion problems in the past. When your on your third or fourth concussion in a 2 year window your close to retirement time.
Well then I guess you can say the organization has groomed Russell as a right side dman. Lol.
I’m guessing he’s played more games on the right side than Jones in the last 4 years.
You’ve bitched about Russell playing the offside the last few years, and yet you want to stick Jones in that position right off the hop? Your logic appears to be flawed.
What is it about Jones skill set that makes you so sure he will fit there? Is it his skating? His puck handling? Because those were considered Russells skills when he got to the NHL.
The truth is you have no idea how Jones will perform at 2RD, but as usual, you have made a premature roster decision. And now you are grasping at straws trying to justify it.
I have no idea how Jones will perform at 2RD. Maybe he turns into an all star there. But I would go with another, more proven option until Jones proves he can handle the NHL and forces his way up the lineup.
So where does Jones play?
Right side with Klef?
Right side with Russell?
Either way he is back down when Lars comes back?
Been outta the loop a bit…damn job interview to prep for.
Also I suggest that everyone here focusing on ‘Social Justice Warriors’ as exporters of outrage culture and online bullying do some reading about the presence of the far-right online. Just one or two stories.
So is that COL bubble gonna burst tonight?
Holy PDO heater batman.
That GF% is a mirage.
Amazing isn’t it
And this will still be the Pre-Bouchard and Pre-Broberg Era.
Exciting!
Ferland was younger and had a better scoring resume than Kassian.
Jezzuz H…Oilers are “this” close to hitting on both Bear AND Jones.
These are good times.
Open up NST and there it is.
Nic Petan (SSS alert) in 6 games running a:
70.83 CF%
67.57 xGF%
5v5
The thin skin is often a sharp sheild for bigotry. I got a accused of processing thin skin when I stated that i found a homophobic slur offensive.
Sometimes poeple just take a while to realize right from wrong, individually and as a group.
100 years ago it was legal to beat the shit out of your wife with a stick.
I guess women probably didn’t have thin skin back then?
You may be right, although many veteran coaches like a player to have a couple of practices with the team before playing a game. One thing that’s true about Woodcroft’s recalls, they always appear ready.
I’m expecting him to play tonight.
The choice for the coaching staff is Jones or Persson and, in actuality, Jones has more NHL games on his resume (and this is his third season of pro on North American ice).
You don’t have to agree with my reasoning – that’s final.
I’m not sure how many different ways to say it but its not “Persson’s ability at 2RD” in isolation but its the balance that it creates. It slots all 3 players in positions where they can succeed (and, yes, Persson has had some success as 2RD – its been uneven) – it creates a balance to the three pairings.
I’d prefer if Jones shot right but he has played about 85% of his pro time on the right side – the organization has groomed him as a right side d-man. I don’t see him being any worse than Persson in that spot and he has the skill set that works with Klefbom.
The defence that the team has been winning with, almost exclusively, has been:
Nurse/Bear
Klefbom/Persson
Russell/Benning
To slide Jones (a right side D as a pro that is a plus skater and a good puck mover) in for Persson allows the other two pairings, which have led to success, to stay. To do anything else changes up two pairings and hurts the balance.
!
I’m not sure intersectionality means what you think it means.
Conceptually speaking, it means looking at how certain big picture social structure issues quite literally intersect with each other. Initially this meant the intersection of race, gender and class but it has evolved to include sexuality, ability/disability, age and various other markers of social location. It’s primarily used as a theoretical framework to make sense of the different types of marginalization and discrimination people face and how we can learn more from the intersection of different experiences of discrimination based on more than 1 social factor. Previously social class was the centre of most sociological and historical inquiry. Now it’s grown.
On a macro level, looking purely at the numbers of racialized men in prison and women in poverty relative to these groups size of the overall population, we can see an intersection between at least 2 of the 3 categories. Again, this is at the macro level, and the systemic prejudices built into our legal system has maintained this overrepresentation in prisons for some time. It’s even more pronounced in the US. What’s the connection? Higher rates of incarceration of men leads to more single parent homes, higher rates of poverty and more pressure to drop out of school in order to work and help the family. And here is where it gets interesting…
Similar studies around racial bias with employment opportunities have been ongoing for decades – several including ‘Black Sounding’ names and several using implicit bias around postal/zip codes of applicants. See where I’m going with this?
However, nothing in intersectional approaches to viewing the world explicitly suggests that white folks can’t be discriminated against individually or collectively. Trust me, as a white Jewish guy, I’ve gotten it plenty. On a larger scale plenty of queer, poor white dudes and white women have had a bad time of things, white trans folks too, especially younger ones in recent years. Studying that community from an intersectional lens (the intersection of class, gender and sexual preference) is just as common in the social sciences and often provides more nuance and depth than just looking at 1 category of social location in isolation.
Sorry to hear this. That professor clearly sucks.
Signed, a better professor
Ferland also had back to back 40 point seasons.
This will be Kassian’s first season over 30 points if he keeps it up and he’ll be 29 going into the off season.
I would look at the cautionary tales of Maroon and Chiasson and refuse to overpay Kassian for being able to score with McDrai.
Offer him $2 million or gtfo.
Just because someone else did something stupid doesn’t mean we have to do the same thing.
Ferland got $3.5 x 4. It’s unreasonable to expect Kassian to accept less. We can hope of course.
In a setting where intersectionalists do not yet control the Overton window, they tend to obfuscate what they really mean. In a setting where they do control the Overton window (like schools and college campuses), they do not obfuscate what they mean.
Now, onto hockey talk:
As much as I’d like to see Jones play, I have a hard time seeing he will get any games, much like Lagesson earlier in the year. Just building some good will with a prospect by giving him an NHL salary for a week or so while they wait for Larsson to get healthier.
I don’t have an opinion on these issues that I would like to share on this platform, but thought I could give some input as person who graduated with an education degree earlier this year:
I was told in two separate classes directly from the professor that white people can’t be the victim of racism. Once in an Aboriginal Studies class, once in a policy studies class involving society and education. Both of those courses were by far the worst in my education degree, with an absolutely toxic classroom environment, where you would immediately be labelled a racist by the professor and many of the students if you brought in facts or arguments that went against the narrative of the class, no matter how delicately or diplomatically you brought them up.
Now, as a random person over the internet I don’t expect you to believe me, and not all of the professors teaching those classes are expressing/teaching those views, but I can tell you with 100% certainty that there are some out there, as well as a large percentage of the student body (who are going to become teachers) who are in complete agreement. Again, not expressing any opinions either way, but just letting you know that it is out there.
Schools across Canada teach about white privilege these days. Do they not? It is impossible for those with privilege to be victims of discrimination. It is a priori impossible. A foundational principle of intersectionality.
Riviera only pitched one inning at a time. One pitch can get a reliever through one inning, because the hitter cannot pace your fastball in one at bat.
A starting pitcher with a 100-mph fastball has two have a 2nd offspeed pitch.
Schools are not teaching students that white people cannot be victims of racism.
Signed a public school teacher
Leafs Flames and Vegas lose I doubt Vegas will be in first place in the west this time next week. Little Johnny looks like he’s quit on Peters I can see it getting really messy in a hurry in co-town.
Harpers Hair,
That you’d be outraged over outrage doesn’t surprise me at all.
Agree that Kassian will have to be paid. Interesting many in this blog said about a year ago that Kassian was a vastly overpaid 4th line player. ( and in some ways, he was… he’s found his game this year.)
The dominos will drop. I do think you keep Kassian but going to cost, at least 3 a year? maybe a bit less? Hopefully a short term deal 2 to 3.