2019-20 Game 21: Avalanche at Oilers

by Lowetide

There are two times in the first half of the year you should worry over this team: November and the period around Christmas. Since Connor McDavid arrived in 2015, Edmonton’s November records have gone like this: 4-7-2; 5-6-3; 5-8-1; 6-7-1. Since 2015, the team hasn’t delivered a positive goal differential; in fact, by season the GD was -9, 0, -6 and -8. If October is the Lido Shuffle, then November is Breakdown Dead Ahead. December is Lowdown. January? Loan me a dime. None of that means one damn thing if this version of the Oilers can keep winning more hockey games than they lose. So far, even in November, so good.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.

  • New Jonathan Willis: Basically, yes, the Oilers should keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ‘forever’
  • New Lowetide: Why the recall of NHL-ready Caleb Jones should benefit the Oilers in the long run
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Several drivers make the grade but Edmonton’s bus still has a few passengers
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanFrom 4 to 97, Oilers both new and old share the stories behind their jersey numbers
  • Jonathan Willis: Could a fall trade improve the fortunes of your NHL team in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: Analyzing Dave Tippett’s defensive usage and what the Oilers will do when Adam Larsson returns
  • Lowetide: What’s going on with the Bakersfield Condors?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shines, mad props for Leon Draisaitl and more to like as the Oilers beat the Devils
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What inexperienced defencemen like the Oilers’ Joel Persson must do to gain their coach’s confidence
  • Lowetide: Oilers are closer to having an effective second line than a year ago, but few have noticed
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The beauty of a good night’s sleep can be elusive for many NHL players
  • Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers were wise to gamble on Tomas Jurco, even though it didn’t pan out
  • Jonathan Willis: The unlikely goalie performances underpinning the Oilers’ hot start
  • Lowetide: How far away is Evan Bouchard and what role will he play with the Oilers?
  • Scott Wheeler: Analyzing Jesse Puljujarvi’s play in Finland to see what he could offer as an NHLer
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers right to wait until they’re sure before recalling Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson
  • Lowetide:  Can Leon Draisaitl score more than 50 goals this season?
  • Minnia Feng: The 2019-20 Oilers fan guide to emotions and stressful circumstances
  • Jonathan Willis: How much will the Oilers have to pay to keep pending free agent Zack Kassian?
  • Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects summer 2019.

OILERS AFTER 21

  • Oilers in 20157-13-1, 15 points; goal differential -9
  • Oilers in 2016: 12-8-1, 25 points; goal differential +10
  • Oilers in 2017: 7-12-2, 16 points; goal differential -18
  • Oilers in 2018: 10-10-1, 21 points; goal differential -8
  • Oilers in 2019: 12-6-2, 26 points; goal differential +9

I believe we’re at a point where the 2019 team is a close match with 2016 and has a cousin in 2018. Fair? The 2018 team went 25-28-8 from here, if this year’s model matches the final tally would be 38-34-10, 88 points. That was my prediction at the beginning of the season. The fantasy finish is 2016, that team went 35-18-8 from here. If the Oilers keep that pace, it’ll be 47-24-11. That would be 105 points, beyond anyone’s outer marker.

OILERS IN NOVEMBER

  • Oilers in November 2015: 2-4-1, five points; goal differential -5
  • Oilers in November 2016: 2-4-1, five points; goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2017: 3-3-1, seven points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in November 2018: 3-4-0, six points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in November 2019: 3-2-1, seven points; goal differential +4

Including tonight’s game, the Oilers have eight games left in the month. If they average a point per game, the club would finish with 15 points in 14 games. That would exceed previous McDavid Novembers, in fact the best 97 November was 13 points.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

  • On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
  • At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 3-2-1, 7 points after six games

I predicted a 3-2-1 start and that’s where the team landed after six games. I have tonight as a loss, a win Saturday against Dallas (they weren’t 8-1-1 in their last 10 when I predicted it though) and wins in Los Angeles and Phoenix during a tough road trip next week.

OILERS 2019-20

There are 26 men who have played so far this season, I wrote earlier about expecting a new record in terms of players making appearances this season.

YEAR OVER YEAR AFTER 20

Both numbers sets are after 20 games via Natural Stat Trick, this year’s number followed by last year’s in brackets. All applicable numbers five-on-five.

  • Record: 12-6-2 [9-10-1]
  • Corsi: 48.56 [50.17]
  • Fenwick: 48.84 [51.15]
  • Shots: 48.95 [50.92]
  • Goals: 52.00 [45.83]
  • Shooting Percentage: 8.80 [6.60]
  • Save Percentage: 92.21 [91.91]
  • PDO: 101 [98.5]
  • Power Play: 16-4 [14-2]
  • Penalty Kill: 0-9 [3-17]

Things that make you go hmmm: Although the possession numbers are down, some of that will be score effects. I didn’t list high danger chances but it’s a good bet Tippett’s Oilers are improved there as well. Goal share is up massively, that’s an area where regression could impact the team. Shooting and save percentage are also up, luck and Leon probably to blame for the shooting. PDO isn’t crazy, the team’s special teams are +3 this year and were -2 one year ago.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we roll out an all-star cast of guests on TSN1260. Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic talks about his first quarter Oilers report card, followed by Reid Fowler from Draft Kings to talk NFL. Frank Seravalli from TSN pops in to give us the latest on Sidney Crosby, emoji’s and Don Cherry. Gabe Lacques from USA Today rounds out the guest list to talk Astros and stealing signs. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. Talk soon!

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Woodguy v2.0

WC Standings using points above/below fake Bettman .500

Central
STL 9
COL 6
NSH 3

Pacific
EDM 6
ARI 5
VAN 4

Wildcard
WPG 2
CGY 2

Out of playoffs
DAL 1
ANA 1
VEGREVILLE 1
CHI 0
SJS -2
MIN -5
LAK -5

Hottest teams in WC over the last 10 games:
DAL 8-1-1
STL 8-1-1
WPG 6-3-1
ARI 6-3-1

Coldest team in WC over the last 10 games:
LAK 3-6-1
ANA 3-5-2
VEGREVILLE 3-4-3
MIN 4-5-1

After hot starts by both teams, COL and EDM have cooled off a bit over the last 10, but COL has won their last 3 three including a 9-4 smacking of NSH.

COL is pretty beat up and they’ve lost Rantanen, Landeskog, Wilson, Zadarov and Grubauer. That’s their 1LW, 1RW, 3LW, 2LD and 1G out.

Edit: Francouz (2G) also out with concussion. H/T to DERNF

That’s a lot to lose, but they’ve won 3 in a row. Injuries are not an excuse.

Also,

Sam Girard had stepped up and taken the 1LD spot this season, which allowed Bednar to have Zadarov at 2LD to have a high quality 2nd pair with Makar. Now they have 6’5″ monster Graves playing up with Makar, but so far so good.

21 year old 5’10 Girard and 20 year old 5’11 Makar (18pts-18gp) and Byram (who might be better than both of them) on his way. Deeeeeeep young Dcorps.

Shows that smaller fast Dmen who can transition the puck quickly are a more than viable in the NHL today and can succeed in high leverage minutes. You don’t have to be small, but if you make the NHL as a Dmen under 6’0 chances are that you are a burner.

The caculation has always been What you create minus What you give up, and these guys create a ton and their speed and passing ability doesn’t allow the opposition’s forecheck to recover many pucks and create too much.

Also,

So how has McKinnon fared with his two wingers out?

Last game the best (or 2nd best) value contract in the NHL had 2g and 2a in a 4-0 win over WPG. He’s a killer.

Here is how COL lined up last game:

Donskoi-MacKinnon-Calvert
Nichushkin-Kadri-Compher
Nieto-Jost-Burakovsky
Megna-Kamenev-Tynan
Girard-Johnson
Graves-Makar
Barberio-Cole
Werner (who?) the 6’5″ 22 year old Swedish netminder with the shutout in his first NHL game.

EDM probabaly gets Francouz tonight who’s .915 in 7gp this year.

Edit: Probably Werner as per DERNF

Donskoi was a FA signing, Nichushkin reclamation project FA signing, Burakovsky (12pts-18gp) reclamation trade. Some real nice bets in there. Donskoi killing it in the top 6 after being pigeonholed by many as a “bottom 6 guy” and Burakovsky looking like what WSH hoped he would be.

Also,

COL moves the puck at 100mph and everyone can skate and pass.

EDM needs be on their forecheck in the ozone, neutral zone and dzone. They key againt this team is “get the puck back and don’t allow them to transition with the puck”

The key part (imo) of EDM’s changed play this year is their hyper-aggressive forecheck not letting teams through the neutral zone or enter their zone with the puck.

They need to be on their game with this tonight.

GMB3

https://thesuperfan.ca/2019/11/14/after-20-games-the-key-drivers-and-areas-worth-monitoring/

Excellent article by Sunil Agnihotri. Especially interesting how the unsustainable 4v5 save % has dropped to more reasonable levels, but the underling metrics like CA, FA, and xGA have vastly improved in the second ten game segment of the season.

Some interesting stuff about McDavid in there as well.

GMB3

Damn, thought I was finally inB4 WG and OP… Wg crushes it with the first post of the morning

v4ance

Thinking on a Bear extension if we choose to go long:

$3M, $3M, $3.5M, $3.5M, $4M. $4M. $4.5M. $4.5M would make it $30 million over 8 years with an AAV cap hit of $3.75.

jtblack

MAKAR will be up there for Rookie of the Year votes …

through patience and some Good trades and drafting I think Sakic has placed this team in the Stanley Cup Window for the foreseeable future … Maybe not this year, but I think they will make the Finals in the next 3 seasons ..

leadfarmer

jtblack:
MAKAR will be up there for Rookie of the Year votes …

through patience and some Good trades and drafting I think Sakic has placed this team in the Stanley Cup Window for the foreseeable future … Maybe not this year, but I think they will make the Finals in the next 3 seasons ..

Wait until they trade Timmins and a first for Hall

Andy Dufresne

Next 2 games a really good opportunity to assess who we are and where we’re at.

Assuming we are competitive in both games, 2 points is a good outcome.

dernf

Looks like Francouz is dealing with a concussion. The oil likely get Werner tonight.

v4ance

jtblack:
MAKAR will be up there for Rookie of the Year votes …

through patience and some Good trades and drafting I think Sakic has placed this team in the Stanley Cup Window for the foreseeable future … Maybe not this year, but I think they will make the Finals in the next 3 seasons ..

He’s built an amazing group of young talent and managed the cap really well. Between Yzerman and Sakic, you can see how well the on-ice smarts has translated well into the management suite.

leadfarmer

dernf:
Looks like Francouz is dealing with a concussion. The oil likely get Werner tonight.

Yeah we better come out shooting
This is a game we should win

who

Woodguy v2.0:
WC Standings using points above/below fake Bettman .500

Central
STL9
COL6
NSH3

Pacific
EDM6
ARI5
VAN4

Wildcard
WPG2
CGY2

Out of playoffs
DAL1
ANA1
VEGREVILLE1
CHI0
SJS-2
MIN-5
LAK-5

Hottest teams in WC over the last 10 games:
DAL 8-1-1
STL 8-1-1
WPG 6-3-1
ARI 6-3-1

Coldest team in WC over the last 10 games:
LAK 3-6-1
ANA 3-5-2
VEGREVILLE 3-4-3
MIN 4-5-1

After hot starts by both teams, COL and EDM have cooled off a bit over the last 10, but COL has won their last 3 three including a 9-4 smacking of NSH.

COL is pretty beat up and they’ve lost Rantanen, Landeskog, Wilson, Zadarov and Grubauer.That’s their 1LW, 1RW, 3LW, 2LD and 1G out.

That’s a lot to lose, but they’ve won 3 in a row. Injuries are not an excuse.

Also,

Sam Girard had stepped up and taken the 1LD spot this season, which allowed Bednar to have Zadarov at 2LD to have a high quality 2nd pair with Makar.Now they have 6’5″ monster Graves playing up with Makar, but so far so good.

21 year old 5’10 Girard and 20 year old 5’11 Makar (18pts-18gp) and Byram (who might be better than both of them) on his way.Deeeeeeep young Dcorps.

Shows that smaller fast Dmen who can transition the puck quickly are a more than viable in the NHL today and can succeed in high leverage minutes.You don’t have to be small, but if you make the NHL as a Dmen under 6’0 chances are that you are a burner.

The caculation has always been What you create minus What you give up, and these guys create a ton and their speed and passing ability doesn’t allow the opposition’s forecheck to recover many pucks and create too much.

Also,

So how has McKinnon fared with his two wingers out?

Last game the best (or 2nd best) value contract in the NHL had 2g and 2a in a 4-0 win over WPG.He’s a killer.

Here is how COL lined up last game:

Donskoi-MacKinnon-Calvert
Nichushkin-Kadri-Compher
Nieto-Jost-Burakovsky
Megna-Kamenev-Tynan
Girard-Johnson
Graves-Makar
Barberio-Cole
Werner (who?) the 6’5″ 22 year old Swedish netminder with the shutout in his first NHL game.

EDM probabaly gets Francouz tonight who’s .915 in 7gp this year.

Donskoi was a FA signing, Nichushkin reclamation project FA signing, Burakovsky (12pts-18gp) reclamation trade. Some real nice bets in there. Donskoi killing it in the top 6 after being pigeonholed by many as a “bottom 6 guy” and Burakovsky looking like what WSH hoped he would be.

Also,

COL moves the puck at 100mph and everyone can skate and pass.

EDM needs be on their forecheck in the ozone, neutral zone and dzone.They key againt this team is “get the puck back and don’t allow them to transition with the puck”

The key part (imo) of EDM’s changed play this year is their hyper-aggressive forecheck not letting teams through the neutral zone or enter their zone with the puck.

They need to be on their game with this tonight.

Hard to imagine a better opportunity than this to beat Colorado.

Harpers Hair

Woodguy v2.0:
WC Standings using points above/below fake Bettman .500

Central
STL9
COL6
NSH3

Pacific
EDM6
ARI5
VAN4

Wildcard
WPG2
CGY2

Out of playoffs
DAL1
ANA1
VEGREVILLE1
CHI0
SJS-2
MIN-5
LAK-5

Hottest teams in WC over the last 10 games:
DAL 8-1-1
STL 8-1-1
WPG 6-3-1
ARI 6-3-1

Coldest team in WC over the last 10 games:
LAK 3-6-1
ANA 3-5-2
VEGREVILLE 3-4-3
MIN 4-5-1

After hot starts by both teams, COL and EDM have cooled off a bit over the last 10, but COL has won their last 3 three including a 9-4 smacking of NSH.

COL is pretty beat up and they’ve lost Rantanen, Landeskog, Wilson, Zadarov and Grubauer.That’s their 1LW, 1RW, 3LW, 2LD and 1G out.

That’s a lot to lose, but they’ve won 3 in a row. Injuries are not an excuse.

Also,

Sam Girard had stepped up and taken the 1LD spot this season, which allowed Bednar to have Zadarov at 2LD to have a high quality 2nd pair with Makar.Now they have 6’5″ monster Graves playing up with Makar, but so far so good.

21 year old 5’10 Girard and 20 year old 5’11 Makar (18pts-18gp) and Byram (who might be better than both of them) on his way.Deeeeeeep young Dcorps.

Shows that smaller fast Dmen who can transition the puck quickly are a more than viable in the NHL today and can succeed in high leverage minutes.You don’t have to be small, but if you make the NHL as a Dmen under 6’0 chances are that you are a burner.

The caculation has always been What you create minus What you give up, and these guys create a ton and their speed and passing ability doesn’t allow the opposition’s forecheck to recover many pucks and create too much.

Also,

So how has McKinnon fared with his two wingers out?

Last game the best (or 2nd best) value contract in the NHL had 2g and 2a in a 4-0 win over WPG.He’s a killer.

Here is how COL lined up last game:

Donskoi-MacKinnon-Calvert
Nichushkin-Kadri-Compher
Nieto-Jost-Burakovsky
Megna-Kamenev-Tynan
Girard-Johnson
Graves-Makar
Barberio-Cole
Werner (who?) the 6’5″ 22 year old Swedish netminder with the shutout in his first NHL game.

EDM probabaly gets Francouz tonight who’s .915 in 7gp this year.

Donskoi was a FA signing, Nichushkin reclamation project FA signing, Burakovsky (12pts-18gp) reclamation trade. Some real nice bets in there. Donskoi killing it in the top 6 after being pigeonholed by many as a “bottom 6 guy” and Burakovsky looking like what WSH hoped he would be.

Also,

COL moves the puck at 100mph and everyone can skate and pass.

EDM needs be on their forecheck in the ozone, neutral zone and dzone.They key againt this team is “get the puck back and don’t allow them to transition with the puck”

The key part (imo) of EDM’s changed play this year is their hyper-aggressive forecheck not letting teams through the neutral zone or enter their zone with the puck.

They need to be on their game with this tonight.

Keep a close eye on Arizona.

They finish up a very successful road trip (wins over Washington and St. Louis) with a game tonight in Minnesota.

They then spend almost the entire last two weeks of the month at home with 6 home games and only one road game a short hop away in LA.

They have a real chance to climb the standings and perhaps pull away from the pack.

dernf

Also looks like the Colorado Eagles (Avs AHL affiliate) are dealing with goalie issues. With Werner already in the NHL, the Eagles only have 1 healthy goalie. Reporters around the team aren’t sure how the organization will handle it.

https://coloradohockeynow.com/2019/11/13/pavel-francouz-out-with-head-injury/

Long shot, but maybe an emergency goalie situation? I love me some emergency goalie situations.

dernf

Whoops, disregard my emergency goalie comment above. Antoine Bibeau has been called up from the Eagles, rocking a .792 save percentage over 1 game this year.

Kinger_Oil.redux

– Interesting to feel/see the changing attitudes based on a few more wins at the quarter mark

– Those who had 100 point + projections, there were many paths foreseeable to be considerably better this year, and that the team could be a playoff team:

1) Tippett’s track record of turning around teams in his first year in both Dallas and Phoneix

2) The depth of D percolating in the system from draft and develop meant that the weak link on D when injuries wasn’t Auvitu, Gryba, Widemand, Garrison, Petro, etc. Instead of an assortment of has-beens, never-beens or who are you kiddings, you have a Bear, Jones Persson all of whom aren’t rushed, all of whom have more upside than the list above

3) Last year’s team was mired by a lot of injuries by D that mattered, resulting in the poor D depth alluded to above being asked to do too much

4) Klef and Nurse, Drai and McD are one year closer to their peak years as D and F’s

5) Koski turned out to be an actual NHL goalie: which coincided with the team better (this was the premise a few had) and Smith > Talbot by a lot, and if Koski is managed properly he will be fine

6) Marginal improvements in special teams would result in improvements in the wins and losses

– So confident was the consensus that team wasn’t playoffs. Then so confident that their “hot start” couldnt’ be sustained. Now we lose one, and thats the outlier…No more “regression” speak

– Anyway, who knows what the rest of the season brings, but there isn’t much unsustainable about individual performances, and all of the above were outcomes that weren’t far-fetched. The off-season projections of non-playoffs were backwards looking focused, projected those results into the future, not giving much consideration to other determinants of future success

– All of shooting% sv%, Possession #’ aren’t crazy one way or other. Their PP is elite (it should be), their PK is top-5 (is anyone willing to say this is not sustainable?), they are a few penalties against from being just average in PP opportunities, their PDO isn’t out of whack

– Whose to say that a 105 point + season isn’t possible: its all backwards looking. And we are now at the point where the most recent backwards is the quarter mark: but that’s not going to be what happens for the rest of season? Are we sure about that?

– We’ve played these games, each result is different: sometimes our goalie is great, or the other goalie sucks, or we have amazing individual performances, or we squeak into 3×3, or we get a timely goal, or we show up cold. We haven’t had much in secondary scoring, but our D have helped

– Its been fun to see the change in dynamics: so far so good, and there was a path to this, and each game has a considerable amount of luck. To what extent will my 1-6 continue?

GOILERS!!!

Woodguy v2.0

dernf:
Looks like Francouz is dealing with a concussion. The oil likely get Werner tonight.

Thanks for that.

Will update my original post.

Someone named Antoine Bibeau is 2G now

Wilde

As on Twitter I’ll answer any questions about Caleb Jones here

flea

How many no name goalies have come in and stolen the show against the Oilers?? I feel like it’s happened a few times in the last few years.

One element the Oilers are missing offensively – in my opinion – is the rebound goal. Neal has a few this year, but it doesn’t seem like they try much for rebounds.

Would like to see those bottom 6 lines work more pucks to the net and look for second opportunities. Hoping Haas is back in.

Woodguy v2.0

Harpers Hair: Keep a close eye on Arizona.

They finish up a very successful road trip (wins over Washington and St. Louis) with a game tonight in Minnesota.

They then spend almost the entire last two weeks of the month at home with 6 home games and only one road game a short hop away in LA.

They have a real chance to climb the standings and perhaps pull away from the pack.

I am very happy with my 10-1 bet for them to win the division this year.

Woodguy v2.0

Wilde:
As on Twitter I’ll answer any questions about Caleb Jones here

Does he prefer burritos or tacos?

Harpers Hair

Woodguy v2.0: I am very happy with my 10-1 bet for them to win the division this year.

I expect you’ll be collecting on that one.

Reja

dernf:
Whoops, disregard my emergency goalie comment above. Antoine Bibeau has been called up from the Eagles, rocking a .792 save percentage over 1 game this year.

Is Ben Scrivens back in the Spruce Grove area. Ben could be downtown at the rink within a hour after the contract is negotiated.

Brantford Boy

Kinger_Oil.redux,

So you’re saying I should pre-book my flights to Edmonton for playoff games?

Also, can you really, like seriously, discount a team with McDavid, and, as it is quickly turning out, Draisaitl to not make the playoffs… we’ll see…

Harpers Hair

The Avalanche outscore the opposition 17-5 when Cale Makar is on the ice.

They should just award him the Calder trophy right now.

Kraz

Wilde,

Does he have any weaknesses in his game? Or anything that get exposed/hold him back at the NHL level?

OriginalPouzar

Injuries notwithstanding, this is a dynamic Avs team with the likes of MacKinnon, Makar and company.

Yup, its their eleventh tier goalie or something like that but he’s got one appearance in the NHL and it was a 40 save shutout.

Oh ya, Kadri has been a thorn in McDavid’s side on occasion.

With that said, these guys should be raring to go after a poor team effort and, almost to a man, individual effort, last game. Mikko should be rested and ready. Jones or Persson should add the transition puck moving game that plays to the team’s structure.

Lets do this!

dernf

Woodguy v2.0,

Hmmm… Bibeau played 2 NHL games for the Leafs in 16-17 and posted 1.99 GAA and .927 SV%.

He has, however, laid a wet fart in his only AHL start this year (.792 SV%).

OriginalPouzar

Lowetide: You may be right, although many veteran coaches like a player to have a couple of practices with the team before playing a game. One thing that’s true about Woodcroft’s recalls, they always appear ready.

Yes, I was thinking that the one thing that may keep Jones out of the lineup is that he just got here and hasn’t ha a chance to practice with the team quite yet.

Either way, as long as Jones or Persson is 2RD, I’ll be happy.

I’ll be “OK” if its Benning at 2RD but I’d prefer to keep him with Russell.

If Russell is 2RD, I will not be happy.

russ99

Andrew Ladd is on waivers coming off a knee injury.

Contract is pretty nasty. $5.5M for 3 with NTC kicking in next year

Would be an improvement at 2LW, but probably not worth it.

Wilde

Kraz:
Wilde,

Does he have any weaknesses in his game? Or anything that get exposed/hold him back at the NHL level?

OZ distribution during in-zone possession (that’s not off the rush)

In terms of the way scouts talk about ‘tools’, though, no

OriginalPouzar

who: Well then I guess you can say the organization has groomed Russell as a right side dman. Lol.
I’m guessing he’s played more games on the right side than Jones in the last 4 years.
You’ve bitched about Russell playing the offside the last few years, and yet you want to stick Jonesin that position right off the hop? Your logic appears to be flawed.
What is it about Jones skill set that makes you so sure he will fit there? Is it his skating? His puck handling? Because those were considered Russells skills when he got to the NHL.
The truth is you have no idea how Jones will perform at 2RD, but as usual, you have made a premature roster decision. And now you are grasping at straws trying to justify it.
I have no idea how Jones will perform at 2RD. Maybe he turns into an all star there. But I would go with another, more proven option until Jones proves he can handle the NHL and forces his way up the lineup.

Yes, I’ve bitched about Russell playing the right side over the last few years because he is materially worse on the right side and he hasn’t been good enough, overall at 2RD, on the Oilers. That has been a position in need of upgrade for years. I am grateful for his work there – he works his ass off and has done an admiral job over the years punching above his level of ability. At the same time, we know its not good enough and we’ve seen it this year. Russell at 2RD does not fit with the structure of the team and the team has struggled all year when he’s been there.

Through is pro career, Jones has played just as well, if not better, on the right side than the left side. This is not normal but it has been the case, at the AHL level. Even in his short stint at the NHL level, he was better on the right side with Gravel and Benning than he was on the left side, with Larsson – of course, there was a quality of competition difference but them are the facts.

No, I don’t know if Jones will be able to handle the 2RD minutes and help the team there, however, I do know that Russell cannot – not that he’s awful but that he’s not good enough. Jones may prove to be “not good enough” as well but we don’t know. We do know that he has a skill-set that we need in that spot.

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0,

Where do you place those bets?

GordieHoweHatTrick

flea:
How many no name goalies have come in and stolen the show against the Oilers?? I feel like it’s happened a few times in the last few years.

All of them 😉

Woodguy v2.0

Harpers Hair: I expect you’ll be collecting on that one.

Long way from here to there, but its ridiculous value at 10-1

Bag of Pucks

Woodguy v2.0: I am very happy with my 10-1 bet for them to win the division this year.

That’s the beauty of gambling. You make enough bets and some of them are bound to pay off. ?

Harpers Hair

Woodguy v2.0: Long way from here to there, but its ridiculous value at 10-1

The Coyotes have the second easiest remaining schedule in the WC.

Only the Avalanche have an easier road.

http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/strength-of-schedule.php

LadiesloveSmid

Harpers Hair:
The Avalanche outscore the opposition 17-5 when Cale Makar is on the ice.

They should just award him the Calder trophy right now.

Due for some regression tonight.

-3, gets benched

Pescador

Wilde:
As on Twitter I’ll answer any questions about Caleb Jones here

Will he play tonight?
?

Woodguy v2.0

leadfarmer:
Woodguy v2.0,

Where do you place those bets?

Bodog.eu
Pinnacle.com
Bet365.com

I think I placed this one on Bodog.

Woodguy v2.0

Bag of Pucks: That’s the beauty of gambling. You make enough bets and some of them are bound to pay off.

If every bet is +EV you’ll win in the long run.

Where everyone makes mistakes is thinking -EV is +EV and putting too much of your bankroll at risk on single bets.

Regardless of your bankroll you should have “100 units” and not wager more than 5 units (if that) on any particular bet.

Variance is a bitch but can be tamed in the long run with good bankroll management.

leadfarmer

Woodguy v2.0,

What are the Avs cup odds?

OriginalPouzar

As per Stauffer:

Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
Neal-RNH-Archibald
Nygard-Haas-Chiasson
Khaira-Sheahan-P Russell
Granlund-Gagner

Nurse-Bear
Klefbom-Jones
Russell-Benning
Persson-(Larsson IR)

Smith
Koskinen

Pescador

flea:
How many no name goalies have come in and stolen the show against the Oilers?? I feel like it’s happened a few times in the last few years.

One element the Oilers are missing offensively – in my opinion – is the rebound goal. Neal has a few this year, but it doesn’t seem like they try much for rebounds.

Would like to see those bottom 6 lines work more pucks to the net and look for second opportunities. Hoping Haas is back in.

I will say more than the number of first time goalies that the Oilers have chased from the crease.
I will also be watching for:
A) Any Avalanche players looking to score their first goal of the season or career.
B) Any Avalanche players who have been in a extended scoring slump to break that slump tonight

Harpers Hair

LadiesloveSmid: Due for some regression tonight.

-3, gets benched

Woodguy might want to place some dough on that event not occurring.

OriginalPouzar

If that means Smith is starting, that would be a shocker and head-scratcher.

As discussed, that’s my preferred defence deployment tonight and I’m excited.

I’m glad Chiasson is removed from the 2nd line – would prefer Nygard over Archie but we’ll see how it goes.

Pescador

Woodguy v2.0: If every bet is +EV you’ll win in the long run.

Where everyone makes mistakes is thinking -EV is +EV and putting too much of your bankroll at risk on single bets.

Regardless of your bankroll you should have “100 units” and not wager more than 5 units (if that) on any particular bet.

Variance is a bitch but can be tamed in the long run with good bankroll management.

I see…
Now that I’m an expert on betting, anyone care to lend me a significant Bankroll so I can get started?

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

A couple of quick things that I believe are important.

1) The Detroit game on Oct. 29 was a milestone marker and no its not because the Oilers were their good ole slum-busting selves that night, not it was a turning point for another reason. It was the last game that both McDavid and Draisaitl together played more than 20 min at EV. Now for most teams that is a “no duh” sort of thing but considering how hard Tippett road those ponies this is a big step back. Leon hit the 20 minute mark against Arizona a week later but for McDavid its been over two weeks with his ES minutes pulled down to almost normal numbers.

2) Now this is good for McD who’s clearly getting back up to speed but the story isn’t the same for Drai who logged about 90 seconds a game on PK. BUUUUUUT since the Arizona game Leon hasn’t cracked the 60 sec mark in any single game either.

3) Building on that its actually been four games in a row now (since St. Louis) that both McD and Drai have seen their total TOI drop under 20min a game (and the St. Louis game was very heavy on PP minutes, their ES TOI for that game were 17:03 and 17:45 respectively).

4) I cannot overstate the importance of this four game stretch. You have to go back to November 2017 to find a four game stretch where Leon played less than 20min a game and for McD its January 2018. Over two years of running these guys absolutely ragged, man!

Now of course we know that it behooved Tippett to get those numbers down from the sky high levels we saw at the beginning of the year but to have it happening at this exact time may make it even more critical, especially if they can keep it up for the two home games AND the road trip.

Why do I say that?

Well because after the upcoming road trip (actually in the middle of it) the Oilers enter a two week window where they get a significant break from the crazy paced schedule they have had until now. Note I am not saying anything here about strength of schedule (which gets tougher) but merely pace, which saw them playing a game every second day since well the beginning of the year.

From the Arizona game they have a ten day stretch where its game – two days off – game – two days off – game -two days off. The travel in between those is Arizona – Colorado – Vancouver – Edmonton and then home until Dec 11 (a four game stint against beatable competition).

If Tippett can keep those numbers down for those two next week they’ll be entering a moderate rest period for the first time this year without having ridden McD and Drai like Secretariat and Seattle Slew. The break will likely leave at least 3 full practice days to tweak things (with Larsson back) and two full rest days let everyone heal bumps and bruises. Combine that with ten days sleeping at home in your own bed playing against beatable competition and perhaps just maybe our little team could make some hay (and emerge rested!) to deal with the tough road that starts on Dec 14 and runs through the 23rd.

Pescador

OriginalPouzar:
If that means Smith is starting, that would be a shocker and head-scratcher.

As discussed, that’s my preferred defence deployment tonight and I’m excited.

I’m glad Chiasson is removed from the 2nd line – would prefer Nygard over Archie but we’ll see how it goes.

One of the (many) things I like about Tippett is that he will not be afraid to make that switch in game if it’s not working.
Game management, it’s a thing

Justthestatsman

OriginalPouzar:
As per Stauffer:

Draisaitl-McDavid-Kassian
Neal-RNH-Archibald
Nygard-Haas-Chiasson
Khaira-Sheahan-P Russell
Granlund-Gagner

Nurse-Bear
Klefbom-Jones
Russell-Benning
Persson-(Larsson IR)

Smith
Koskinen

Looks like you get your wish with Jones as 2RD, Somewhat surprised with Smith as the starter tonight, but I guess it fits with the two on two off pattern, and most of the goals against last game were caused by a combination of untimely turnovers and poor coverage.

Profit

I’m in Edmonton for work today and get to take in tonight’s game for my first of the season.

Looking forward to seeing Jones at 2RD and picking up a Draisaitl jersey for my eldest daughter (you can’t get one online – have to custom order it which I thought was weird).

Hoping for a good game or it’s a long drive back to Calgary tonight…