The McDavid Draisaitl Freeway

by Lowetide

Remember that line from Casey Stengel I threw at you the other day? Last night was a win from the early shifts for Edmonton, a “laugher” for the home side. Today, Leon Draisaitl has 41 points, McDavid 37, and three more forwards are on pace for over 58 points. The team remains in first place and we are now past the ides of November. What will tomorrow bring? I don’t have a script and this doesn’t resemble anything on the shelves.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.

  • New Jonathan Willis: A shift-by-shift analysis of Caleb Jones in his Oilers season debut
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Sometimes it’s just unstoppable’: How McDavid and the Oilers’ power play dominated the Avalanche
  • New Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones and the crisis that’s looming in the Oilers’ middle distance
  • Jonathan Willis: Basically, yes, the Oilers should keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ‘forever’
  • Lowetide: Why the recall of NHL-ready Caleb Jones should benefit the Oilers in the long run
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Several drivers make the grade but Edmonton’s bus still has a few passengers
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanFrom 4 to 97, Oilers both new and old share the stories behind their jersey numbers
  • Jonathan Willis: Could a fall trade improve the fortunes of your NHL team in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: Analyzing Dave Tippett’s defensive usage and what the Oilers will do when Adam Larsson returns
  • Lowetide: What’s going on with the Bakersfield Condors?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shines, mad props for Leon Draisaitl and more to like as the Oilers beat the Devils
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What inexperienced defencemen like the Oilers’ Joel Persson must do to gain their coach’s confidence
  • Lowetide: Oilers are closer to having an effective second line than a year ago, but few have noticed
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The beauty of a good night’s sleep can be elusive for many NHL players
  • Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers were wise to gamble on Tomas Jurco, even though it didn’t pan out
  • Jonathan Willis: The unlikely goalie performances underpinning the Oilers’ hot start
  • Lowetide: How far away is Evan Bouchard and what role will he play with the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers right to wait until they’re sure before recalling Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson
  • Lowetide:  Can Leon Draisaitl score more than 50 goals this season?

OILERS AFTER 21 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 7-13-1, 15 points; goal differential -9
  • Oilers in 2016: 12-8-1, 25 points; goal differential +10
  • Oilers in 2017: 7-12-2, 16 points; goal differential -18
  • Oilers in 2018: 10-10-1, 21 points; goal differential -8
  • Oilers in 2019: 13-6-2, 28 points; goal differential +13

There’s nothing for Oilers fans to complain about and that may be a problem for some. That said, the quality of the roster’s top end is so high that Holland-Tippett have created a capable team on a shoestring budget. As I see it, the goaltending (Mike Smith) and scoring (James Neal) plus PK (a cast of many) were the key additions by management, along with Tippett who works hard on matchups and deploying his role players in areas they can succeed. Big win last night, excellent first 21 games.

OILERS IN NOVEMBER

  • Oilers in November 2015: 2-4-1, five points; goal differential -5
  • Oilers in November 2016: 2-4-1, five points; goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2017: 3-3-1, seven points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in November 2018: 3-4-0, six points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in November 2019: 4-2-1, nine points; goal differential +8

The shocking difference from past seasons is the goal differential. Amazing.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

  • On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
  • At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 4-2-1, 9 points after seven games

As was the case a month ago, we reach the middle of the schedule in November with the team over-delivering points based on my prediction. The goalies are holding, the defense appears capable and the top five forwards are outscoring all the faults. Is this sustainable? Hell if I know.

OILERS 2019-20

The five forwards who are posting crooked numbers stand out from the rest, not certain any of the others is guaranteed work beyond this season (including Chiasson). The auditions continue. Caleb Jones is Oilers player No. 27 on the season. All numbers five-on-five unless noted and all info from NST.

LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 8:07, going 9-13 Corsi, 8-8 shots, 1-1 goals and 4-4 HDSC.

Leon Draisaitl had five assists, three on the power play. He leads the league’s scorers by a mile. Last year he had a chance to win the scoring title but this year is different. He has to be a strong candidate for the Hart based on the first 21 games. Amazing. Connor McDavid went 0-2-2 at five-on-five, 3-3-6 overall. Zack Kassian ran over Nathan MacKinnon in the game’s opening seconds and then got into a fight. Scored a goal at five-on-five and skated miles. I’d make a comment about all the credit he got for the early hit (‘set the tone’!) but I like him so will refrain from being a crusty old bastard.

LINE 2 James Neal-Nuge-Josh Archibald played 8:01, going 9-14 Corsi, 0-5 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-2 HDSC.

James Neal had a HDSC and a takeaway, along with a power-play assist. Nuge scored twice, once on the power play, and had a takeaway, a blocked shot and won six of eight in the dot. Josh Archibald had a shot and a HDSC plus a takeaway. I don’t know that he’ll get another chance with this line but he’s certainly fast enough.

LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 10:09, going 6-7 Corsi, 2-6 shots, no goals and 1-1 HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira won some battles along the wall but didn’t get much done with the puck. Riley Sheahan had a HDSC and won 6 of 10 faceoffs. I swear he’ll score, this isn’t another Rieder thing. Patrick Russell had a shot on goal.

LINE 4 Joakim Nygard-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 7:43, going 4-11 Corsi, 1-5 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.

Joakim Nygard’s speed is valuable on this roster, he is a noticeable player. He didn’t get a lot done but did draw a penalty. Gaetan Haas takes too long to move the puck and gets flattened a lot. I love his possibilities, but he gets caught a lot. Alex Chiasson had one shot on goal and it looked like he tipped a McDavid power-play shot but he didn’t get credit for it.

PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 11:21 together, going 10-14 Corsi, 9-10 shots, 1-2 goals and 4-4 HDSC. Spent 8:06 with McDavid, 7:43 against MacKinnon.

Darnell Nurse was the last Oilers player to touch the puck before each of the two goals entered the net. He lost a puck battle while trying to clear along the wall on the first goal and was slow to recognize danger on the second goal. He took three penalties and two giveaways. I’m a pro-Nurse observer, but that was a poor game. Ethan Bear was mostly good, he did have a giveaway and took a penalty due to waiting too long to outlet the puck. It’s exactly the kind of play rookies make and is outweighed by myriad intelligent decisions.

PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Caleb Jones played 11:16, going 10-15 Corsi, 1-5 shots, no goals and 1-3 HDSC. Played five minutes against the Kadri line.

Oscar Klefbom had three power-play assists, that’s an enormous evening for a defenseman. Now on pace for 55 points. Had two giveaways. Caleb Jones jumped into the rush a couple of times, had a takeaway and was effective passing the puck. He played well.

PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 13:19, going 7-8 Corsi, 2-5 shots, no goals and 2-0 HDSC.

Kris Russell drew a penalty, put himself in harm’s way several times and performed as you would expect. All of the possession numbers are skewed with score effects but to my eye Tippett was comfortable rolling this duo more often as the game rolled along. TOI reflects same.

GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 31 of 33, .939. I don’t think he saw the first shot that beat him, and he couldn’t recover after an awkward save on the second goal. Smith made several impressive stops (Avs have marksmen), stopping seven of eight HDSC.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we put the finishing touches on an unusual week. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will talk Oilers, Leafs, CFL playoffs and what HNIC should look like moving forward. Plus Matthew Iwanyk will talk Eskimos and we’ll chat about the possible craziness an Eskimos-Roughriders Grey Cup would do to the nation. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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Tesla's Hair November 16, 2019 - 12:58 pm

Ari:
deardylan,

+1 to the power of 32

</blockquote

Thanks ARI!!

godot10 November 16, 2019 - 10:09 am

Wilde:
Getting mad at the Eagles and getting mad at camera work, which is particularly demanding in Colorado’s set-up because the cameras broadcast from are seemingly just a few feet above where the coaches eye-sight is, meaning you have to very actively pan the camera, and there’s a problem with players blocking other players as well as figuring out if pucks were deflected.

I should have mentioned this earlier, but another part of Jones coming up is that the Condors’ Dcorps – already struggling to a degree – loses their central pillar. Early morning tracking has me not far into the game, but the opening rotation showed me this:

Lagesson – Day
Lowe – Bouchard
Samorukov – Kulevich

That first pairing (it should be noted that the Condors run a top-4 / / bottom pairing setup, like the Oilers, as opposed to a 1st / / 2nd / / 3rd pairing setup) only showed up last year as a bottom pairing; the second pairing is Lowe + Rookie, which I have reservations about, especially because Bouchard is their strongest offensive driver on D and Lowe is the biggest dragger; and finally the third pairing is a 2L one and I’ve been down on Kulevich for a long time.

By my understanding, if I’m right about Jones, we’ll see a lot of hurt here. Which, if Jones actually manages to play top-4 in the NHL on his off-side (a situation in which treading water will be enormously encouraging) will be simultaneously affirmative of my methods of analysis on the Condors, finish off a smooth narrative about Jones’ development – as opposed to Bear’s shocking&asymmetrical rise – and be very demanding of Lagesson, Bouchard and Samorukov in that order.

I suppose that middle point could be thrown out if I drill down further on Lowe’s past two years and find more of what appears on the surface.

‘Cause last year, when the gap between Jones and Bear was notable, Bear’s main partner was Lowe.

Dylan Simpson was the better defensemen but Keegan Lowe got the contract to stay.

godot10 November 16, 2019 - 10:05 am

JimmyV1965: I wonder why the players seem to be taking a harder line on escrow now when they know they can potentially resolve the issue in a few years. If I’m a UFA next year I wouldn’t want to mess with escrow now and potentially receive less money, only to see UFAs in three years hit the jackpot.

Escrow is NOT a problem that can be solved by delay. It is a problem that only gets worse over time because the players have always invoked an escalator greater than the growth in league revenues, when league revenues are not increasing.

The way to solve or limit the escrow problem is 1) eliminate optionality on the escalator, and force a cap dollar to be equal to a real dollar every year. OR 2) sign contracts where salaries are expressed as a percentage of the cap. (again with no optionality on the escalator.

OriginalPouzar November 16, 2019 - 9:21 am

dangilitis:
Jordan Eberle 4 A in first 7 games (after 9 pts in 8 playoff games and 37 pt season)
Ryan Strome 5G 11A in first 17 games (following 0.5 ppg in NY last season)
Ryan Spooner 4 pts in 11 games this season
Sam Gagner 3 pts in 8 games this season

Ryan Spooner has played in the Swiss League and the KHL this year and those numbers don’t line up with his production in Europe.

What is the point here?

dangilitis November 16, 2019 - 9:11 am

geowal,

Well done. I suspect you can make the connection, though.
The team is dying for more established wingers and a 3rd line center. Strome from Eberle would have been viewed as a win if brass knew what they had, and the signs were there in Edmonton.

Wilde November 16, 2019 - 7:49 am

v4ance:
Wilde,

Just spitballing here but what if Bear’s time with Lowe last year was “polishing the turd” like Sekera did with Russell?

Basically, overcompensating for a less effective partner helped make Bear a better D in the end?Knowing that he (Bear) had to be quicker on puck retrievals and outlet passes since he might not have the support of the less fleet footed Lowe helped Bear develop.So even tho the pairing might not have looked impressive, Bear was gaining valuable experience carrying more than his normal share on the pairing.

I’d only go so far if I had full stats on both prior years, but that’s possible. We also can’t rule out that Bear could possibly hit the NHL even faster without him.

The safe answer is that it didn’t end up mattering in either direction. I will say, however, that dynamic where Nurse passes to Bear to make the ultimate outlet play, is one that Bear has long been acclimated to.

Also, didn’t mention this in the first post, but Maksimov didn’t dress

v4ance November 16, 2019 - 6:27 am

Wilde,

Just spitballing here but what if Bear’s time with Lowe last year was “polishing the turd” like Sekera did with Russell?

Basically, overcompensating for a less effective partner helped make Bear a better D in the end? Knowing that he (Bear) had to be quicker on puck retrievals and outlet passes since he might not have the support of the less fleet footed Lowe helped Bear develop. So even tho the pairing might not have looked impressive, Bear was gaining valuable experience carrying more than his normal share on the pairing.

Wilde November 16, 2019 - 4:12 am

Getting mad at the Eagles and getting mad at camera work, which is particularly demanding in Colorado’s set-up because the cameras broadcast from are seemingly just a few feet above where the coaches eye-sight is, meaning you have to very actively pan the camera, and there’s a problem with players blocking other players as well as figuring out if pucks were deflected.

I should have mentioned this earlier, but another part of Jones coming up is that the Condors’ Dcorps – already struggling to a degree – loses their central pillar. Early morning tracking has me not far into the game, but the opening rotation showed me this:

Lagesson – Day
Lowe – Bouchard
Samorukov – Kulevich

That first pairing (it should be noted that the Condors run a top-4 / / bottom pairing setup, like the Oilers, as opposed to a 1st / / 2nd / / 3rd pairing setup) only showed up last year as a bottom pairing; the second pairing is Lowe + Rookie, which I have reservations about, especially because Bouchard is their strongest offensive driver on D and Lowe is the biggest dragger; and finally the third pairing is a 2L one and I’ve been down on Kulevich for a long time.

By my understanding, if I’m right about Jones, we’ll see a lot of hurt here. Which, if Jones actually manages to play top-4 in the NHL on his off-side (a situation in which treading water will be enormously encouraging) will be simultaneously affirmative of my methods of analysis on the Condors, finish off a smooth narrative about Jones’ development – as opposed to Bear’s shocking&asymmetrical rise – and be very demanding of Lagesson, Bouchard and Samorukov in that order.

I suppose that middle point could be thrown out if I drill down further on Lowe’s past two years and find more of what appears on the surface.

‘Cause last year, when the gap between Jones and Bear was notable, Bear’s main partner was Lowe.

geowal November 16, 2019 - 1:10 am

dangilitis:
Jordan Eberle 4 A in first 7 games (after 9 pts in 8 playoff games and 37 pt season)
Ryan Strome 5G 11A in first 17 games (following 0.5 ppg in NY last season)
Ryan Spooner 4 pts in 11 games this season
Sam Gagner 3 pts in 8 games this season

Those are all definitely names of players followed by contextual numbers.

Ari November 15, 2019 - 10:44 pm

deardylan,

+1 to the power of 32

Reja November 15, 2019 - 10:42 pm

Victoria Oil: The Mariners and the Seahawks say hi.

Yea I was just thinking no NBA to compete with in the winter. I believe the Seattle hockey franchise will be the hottest ticket in town except for 8 home games by the Seahawks.

dangilitis November 15, 2019 - 10:35 pm

Jordan Eberle 4 A in first 7 games (after 9 pts in 8 playoff games and 37 pt season)
Ryan Strome 5G 11A in first 17 games (following 0.5 ppg in NY last season)
Ryan Spooner 4 pts in 11 games this season
Sam Gagner 3 pts in 8 games this season

GMB3 November 15, 2019 - 10:28 pm

Brad Marchand with a little lap with the player of the game trophy in Toronto, showing off the award to the home fans.

Love him or hate him, he certainly gets people talking.

Faustkarz November 15, 2019 - 10:05 pm

Victoria Oil,

NFL and MLB don’t count

Victoria Oil November 15, 2019 - 9:54 pm

Reja: Vegas is adding some nice dinero, Seattle is the jackpot all they have is the Sounders and the masseshave a ton of nerd cash just waiting to be spent. People are underestimating the cash flow they will bring in.

The Mariners and the Seahawks say hi.

Reja November 15, 2019 - 9:43 pm

OriginalPouzar: What about Jesse plus for a 3C?

Not sure that 3C would need to be a high end PK guy (wouldn’t hurt though) – Sheahan would be 4C knocing Hass, a non-killer, out of the lineup (unless he moves to wing).

Would still have

Nuge/Khaira
Sheahan/Archie
Russell/Granlund

Could you imagine if we had Dubois, in a redraft I would take him over Tkachuk Even though I was screaming at the T.V to pick Keith’s kid.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 9:35 pm

Empty net goal and the Condors lose 3-0.

Tough loss as the Condors were the better team from start to finish – that was a Vezina performance – a 39 save shutout (shots 29-26).

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 9:22 pm

Reja:
Holland needsto go to work and find a 3rd line Centre that can kill penalties and win faceoffs In acritical situation.

What about Jesse plus for a 3C?

Not sure that 3C would need to be a high end PK guy (wouldn’t hurt though) – Sheahan would be 4C knocing Hass, a non-killer, out of the lineup (unless he moves to wing).

Would still have

Nuge/Khaira
Sheahan/Archie
Russell/Granlund

Reja November 15, 2019 - 9:16 pm

Holland needs to go to work and find a 3rd line Centre that can kill penalties and win faceoffs In a critical situation.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 9:04 pm

30 shots, many high danger, no goals.

Jurco now with back to back PIMs.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 9:03 pm

Condors may never score again – Yamamoto can’t convert on a clear cut SH breakaway.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 9:02 pm

JimmyV1965: I wonder why the players seem to be taking a harder line on escrow now when they know they can potentially resolve the issue in a few years. If I’m a UFA next year I wouldn’t want to mess with escrow now and potentially receive less money, only to see UFAs in three years hit the jackpot.

Given that they’re not re-opening the CBA, didn’t vote for the escalator this this and probably won’t next year it looks like they are waiting for actual revenues to catch up to the cap.

They’re get more of their salaries now if they don’t keep using the escalator. Time value of money. A dollar today is worth more than one next year.

JimmyV1965 November 15, 2019 - 8:44 pm

Woodguy v2.0: Hard over.

2 reasons:

1) NBC deal expires 2021. So new deal in place for 21/22 season.

Deal currently is $200MM.

Originally people were projecting $500MM, but with networks desperate for “must watch live” programming like sport and ESPN making indicators that it wants to broadcast games, now people are projecting ~700MM

For sake of argument, use $600MM

I’m think they’ll account for the new deal when figuring out the 21/22 cap, but not 100%, so let’s say they are.

2) Seattle.

Vegas came in an was immediately a top 5 team in NHL revenue with revenue HRR around $175MM.

Seattle is expected to at least match this, but let’s assume $150MM

So we get:

Cap in 19/20 is 81.5MM

Increase of $2MM next year for general inflation in revenues with the PA not using the escalator to keep escrow in check.

Cap in 20/21 is 83.5

Now add in the extra $400MM from the new US T.V., divide by 32 teams, divide by 2 as the players get 50% and that’s 6.25.Also add $2MM for inflation

Cap in 21/20 is $90MM

SEA comes in and adds $150MM.Divide 32 and then 2 and you get 2.35MM.Add $2MM for inflation.

Cap in 21/22 is ~$94.5MM

I’m conservative at $2MM/yr inflation and $150MM for SEA.

I bet I’m close on the US TV deal, but it could go higher for sure.

I wonder why the players seem to be taking a harder line on escrow now when they know they can potentially resolve the issue in a few years. If I’m a UFA next year I wouldn’t want to mess with escrow now and potentially receive less money, only to see UFAs in three years hit the jackpot.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 8:34 pm

Condors playing well, better team at 5 on 5 but just can’t cash – a couple 5-bell saves (one on Day and one on Joe G).

Now, Condor on a PP and Daniel Renouf attacks Brad Malone who doesn’t retaliate and its a 5 on 3.

Yamamoto, Jurco, Bouchard, Benson, Malone.

————

Geez, Bouchard, one-time, misses the net and it rims around for a clear and then later Bouchad with a shot blocked for a clear.

Not a great game for Evan.

Reja November 15, 2019 - 8:32 pm

Toronto Is going to start eating their own soon.

leadfarmer November 15, 2019 - 8:30 pm

OriginalPouzar,
10 year deal signed April 2011
So to start the following season as the 2010-11 season is almost done

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 8:17 pm

Woodguy: NBC deal expires at the end of 20/21.

SEA will add a ton.

SEA has sold out of season tickets at higher prices than Vegas with a 20K person waiting list.

The merchandising sales are expected to match Vegas as well.

Vegas’ revenue in its initial year is estimated at $175MM.

Forbes says it ends at the end of 2021/22.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2019/01/15/hockeys-big-pay-day-is-coming/#7ec40c454e44

I have now read other sources that do indeed say a year earlier.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 8:12 pm

ScungillSlushy: How many pro sports players do you estimate use PEDs or the usual to get by?

I’m thinking lo. Kassian with be coveted but will want to stay. I think 3 will do it which I think is fair. Term, no idea, depending on how stpd his agent is.

I have no idea the answer to your question and I’m hopeful you are right on the Kass AAV – it would hurt to lose him for next year but, at the same time, they almost need a discount with the cap situation.

My post that your were responding to was in relation to the opinion that teams won’t take long term risk on players with substance abuse history and i was pointing out that Vancouver just did exactly that – substance abuse history plus coming off concussion issues.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 8:09 pm

Reja: I guess when you have the number 1 PP in the world you don’t have to rush Bouchard for the Kelfbom position. Said it from day 1 Top 10 PP and PK = Playoffs.

Correct – I would also add that, even if the PP was struggling (and Bear was included in those struggles), I don’t imagine that Bouchard would be a call-up option – he’s just not ready for the NHL.

Reja November 15, 2019 - 8:07 pm

Woodguy v2.0: NBC deal expires at the end of 20/21.

SEA will add a ton.

SEA has sold out of season tickets at higher prices than Vegas with a 20K person waiting list.

The merchandising sales are expected to match Vegas as well.

Vegas’ revenue in its initial year is estimated at $175MM.

Vegas is adding some nice dinero, Seattle is the jackpot all they have is the Sounders and the masses have a ton of nerd cash just waiting to be spent. People are underestimating the cash flow they will bring in.

leadfarmer November 15, 2019 - 8:07 pm

Seattle will be a big money maker for the league
Good sports city with a lot of corporate sponsorship

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 8:06 pm

Oilers fall out of first place in the Western Conference as the Blues gain a point in an OT loss.

Of note, Oilers have 10 regulation wins and the Blues 7 – that’s is something that could be important down the road.

leadfarmer November 15, 2019 - 8:04 pm

Woodguy v2.0: Nope.

The PA agreed to not reopen the CBA until at least Set 15, 2022.

SEA starts playing Oct 2021.

Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.secondcityhockey.com/platform/amp/2019/9/16/20868234/nhlpa-declines-option-reopen-collective-bargaining-agreement-extends-to-september-15-2022-deadline

That pretty much means they decided escrow was the biggest issue
So I’m guessing cap goes up by a mil

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 8:04 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Not a great start for the top prospects:

– Yamamoto gets a cross-seem pass on the PP picked off and takes a holding penalty as the play goes back the other way.Eagles score on the PP.

– Bouchard loses position in the defensive zone and takes an ensuring penalty.

With Maksimov out, Yamamoto is killing PIMs with McLeod.

Struggles continue for the top prospect – Benson loses a board battle in the defensive zone, turns the puck over and its in the net.

2-0 Colarado.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 8:01 pm

Correction on VGK being a “top 5 revenue team”

Foley said they were a “top 5,6,7 ticket revenue team”

Source: https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/20367601/nhl-golden-knights-owner-bill-foley-big-plans-vegas-beyond

They still had ~$175MM revenue team, but that’s top 10, not top 5.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 7:59 pm

Ryan: No. Absolutely not. At least not in the linear manner in which you made the connection. Yamamoto would have to ‘win’ the job.

Riding shotgun with McDavid and Draisatl is the best job in hockey, until it’s not.

The downside to the job is the immense press to produce.

There’s a long season ahead and no guarantee that Kassian holds the job for the rest of it.

If Yamamoto is brought up around January, he has skill and shoots right. Decent chance he gets a look on that line if Kassian is struggling.

I’m sure some considerations in roster deployment could be cap related. You could make an argument for Nurse to be playing PP1 (based on previous season data. Nurse had a GFON/60 at 5v4 last season of 8.99 vs 8.06 Klefbom) Obviously having Klefbom who’s locked in at 4 m and change for another three seasons soak up those PP1 points is better from a cap management standpoint.

Fair enough – that suggested deployment presumes Kassian starting to struggle as 1RW – very well may happen and, if it does, of couse, he could be moved down. I though you were suggesting that, if Yamamoto gets called up and is playing well that he gets moved to 1RW notwithstanding Kassian continuing his success in the name of future cap management.

As an aside, I see Yamamoto as a higer skilled third line NHLer – a tenacious forechecker and piss-cutter that creates turnovers, kills penalties and adds skill to the bottom six. I’m not closing the door on him becoming a top 6 player but I think he has a bit of a lack of finish.

You could be right on the PP1 d-man deployment. Nurse’s production on PP1 in Klef’s absence last year was in the same range as Klef’s recent production. With that said, starting with Klef as PP1 made sense irrespective of contract – he was the incumbent, has a better PP skillset and did have a big year on the PP back in 2017. Now he’s top 16 in the NHL among D in 4 X 5 P/60.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 7:44 pm

Halifax loses in 2-1 in OT – quiet night for Lavoie with no points and only six shots on net.

Rodrigue not the starter for Moncton.

Kesserling with a shot and a couple blocks. -1 in a 3-2 loss for N. Eastern – I’ve got high hopes for this kid.

No points for Rasanen or McPhee in a 5-1 win – a couple shots each. Rasanen 8 for 11 in the circle.

Looks like Kemp’s assist was taken away as Yale drops a 4-3 decision.

Skyler Brind’Amour with a shot and 7 of 11 on the dot.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 7:37 pm

I didn’t include new gambling revenues but those will probably be small to start.

The NHL/MGM deal is estimated to be half of the NBA/MGM deal for $25MM, but the NHL isn’t exclusive to MGM either and other gambling revenues should come over time.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 7:34 pm

Source on NBC deal: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_on_NBC

2011–21 contract
On April 19, 2011, after ESPN, Turner Sports and Fox Sports placed bids, NBC Sports announced it had reached a ten-year extension to its television contract with the NHL (through the 2020–21 season) worth nearly $2 billion over the tenure of the contract.

Source on VGK revenues: https://www.forbes.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/#334dd3434c2b

Forbes have them at $180MM. I had read $175 elsewhere and Bill Foley said they were a top 5 revenue team in the NHL in their first year in an interview that I can’t find right now. (On my phone)

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 7:29 pm

Not a great start for the top prospects:

– Yamamoto gets a cross-seem pass on the PP picked off and takes a holding penalty as the play goes back the other way. Eagles score on the PP.

– Bouchard loses position in the defensive zone and takes an ensuring penalty.

With Maksimov out, Yamamoto is killing PIMs with McLeod.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 7:25 pm

OriginalPouzar: It won’t go up very much in the next few years – in fact, speculation is it could be close to flat for next year or a nominal increase.

I don’t think Seattle’s revenue really adds all that much but the big one may be the US TV deal. The current deal expires in 2021/22 season so a new deal will kick in for the 2022/23 season – I think its for the 2023/24 season that we are likely to see a massive increase.

Of course, before then, we will have a new CBA in place so much could change on how the cap is calculated.

NBC deal expires at the end of 20/21.

SEA will add a ton.

SEA has sold out of season tickets at higher prices than Vegas with a 20K person waiting list.

The merchandising sales are expected to match Vegas as well.

Vegas’ revenue in its initial year is estimated at $175MM.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 7:18 pm

Reja:
What’s the over-under the cap going up in the next 3 years 8 million.

Hard over.

2 reasons:

1) NBC deal expires 2021. So new deal in place for 21/22 season.

Deal currently is $200MM.

Originally people were projecting $500MM, but with networks desperate for “must watch live” programming like sport and ESPN making indicators that it wants to broadcast games, now people are projecting ~700MM

For sake of argument, use $600MM

I’m think they’ll account for the new deal when figuring out the 21/22 cap, but not 100%, so let’s say they are.

2) Seattle.

Vegas came in an was immediately a top 5 team in NHL revenue with revenue HRR around $175MM.

Seattle is expected to at least match this, but let’s assume $150MM

So we get:

Cap in 19/20 is 81.5MM

Increase of $2MM next year for general inflation in revenues with the PA not using the escalator to keep escrow in check.

Cap in 20/21 is 83.5

Now add in the extra $400MM from the new US T.V., divide by 32 teams, divide by 2 as the players get 50% and that’s 6.25. Also add $2MM for inflation

Cap in 21/20 is $90MM

SEA comes in and adds $150MM. Divide 32 and then 2 and you get 2.35MM. Add $2MM for inflation.

Cap in 21/22 is ~$94.5MM

I’m conservative at $2MM/yr inflation and $150MM for SEA.

I bet I’m close on the US TV deal, but it could go higher for sure.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 7:13 pm

Phil Kemp picks up an assist in the third.

Don’t sleep on Kemp as a potential down the line. Loved his play for Team USA at last years U-20.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 7:11 pm

Geez, camera angle in the Colorado arena is crazy – its like ice level – just awful….

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 7:08 pm

russ:
Reja,

Way under. Until Seattle is established the cap won’t jump and there’s a really good likelyhood the players walk out over escrow before Seattle playa a game.

It won’t go up very much in the next few years – in fact, speculation is it could be close to flat for next year or a nominal increase.

I don’t think Seattle’s revenue really adds all that much but the big one may be the US TV deal. The current deal expires in 2021/22 season so a new deal will kick in for the 2022/23 season – I think its for the 2023/24 season that we are likely to see a massive increase.

Of course, before then, we will have a new CBA in place so much could change on how the cap is calculated.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 7:04 pm

Reja: Pretty quiet 5 assist game he’s quietly picking up fans for the MVP conversation. When’s the last time a team had 2 nominations?

Rishaug and Nielson were talking about this today: 2001 with Mario and Jaromir.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 7:03 pm

Gerta Rauss: Well that’s not true- both the NHL and the PA decided in Sept not to exercise the “out” clause, so the CBA will expire in Sept of ’22.

Seattle joins the NHL at the draft in June of ’21, and plays it’s first game in Oct of ’21

Didn’t see yours before I posted mine.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 7:02 pm

russ99:
Reja,

Way under. Until Seattle is established the cap won’t jump and there’s a really good likelyhood the players walk out over escrow before Seattle playa a game.

Nope.

The PA agreed to not reopen the CBA until at least Set 15, 2022.

SEA starts playing Oct 2021.

Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.secondcityhockey.com/platform/amp/2019/9/16/20868234/nhlpa-declines-option-reopen-collective-bargaining-agreement-extends-to-september-15-2022-deadline

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 7:00 pm

OriginalPouzar: I was actually thinking along the same lines with respect to WG just a few days ago.

I post on one other site consistently (for close to 15 years) and take quite a bit of grief when I use “fancy stats” to back up my positions.

It will be of surprise to noone here that there are a few on that other site that really really don’t like me (I’m a goof, I know nothing about hockey, etc.) and bring up my “buddies on Lowetide” and how I “just get my opinions from the computer geeks and fake media on LT that don’t know the game”, etc.

I was thinking to myself, I don’t think it will be long before WG is employed by an NHL team.

NHL teams mostly hire the people with superior database, statistical training and coding abilities than I have.

I mess around with it as a hobby, but nothing more.

Guys like GMoney have the skill sets.

My skill set is more of managing and directing an analytics department and they don’t hire off the street for those.

Occasionally someone like Tyler gets dropped in to a spot like that but his experience dwarfs mine.

I’m also not looking for a NHL job so I’m not actively publishing articles like the people who are trying to get these jobs.

I appreciate your thoughts though.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 7:00 pm

Jordan:
Re Zach Attack

Gagners 3+M comes off the books next summer.

It’s really easy for me to see flipping 2ishM of that money over to Kassian, and figure out how long the Oilers are willing to entertain that number.

However, it doesn’t take into account the expansion draft in ’21.

Might make more sense to offer him 1 year at 4.5 and guarantee him McDavid time and tell him they’ll re-sign him after the expansion so they don’t have to protect him and can keep the team together.

Zack is a team first guy.He’d buy in, I think.And that still leaves 1M for the replacement for Gagner down the lineup.Maybe Gagner even comes back for league min, in search of a cup?

Could we actually see some discounts on FAs who want to ride on the McDraihHopkins Winners Wagon?

I don’t think you can think of it that way – i.e. $2M of Gagner’s cap hit goes to Kassian.

Many many players are coming off the book but reality is that they will have only apx $18M of cap room to fill 12 of the 23 roster spots.

They will have apx $25M of room with 13 spots to fill including Nurse and we know he’ll come in around $7M (it may be a bit less but that’s the range).

That $18M includes Kassian (or his replacement), Smith (or his replacement), a 3C, etc.

Of course, one hopes that $4M is opened up with a clean Russell disposition but we’ll see.

If $4M of that $18M is sent to Kasssian – yikes on the rest of the roster no matter if $2M of that $4M “came from Gagner”.

————-

Also, heck no on any “guarantees” or “promises” on roster spots or deployment – even if that was the case, I don’t see Zack signing a one year deal with multiple year deals on the table – the risk is too high – injury, regression, etc.

Glovjuice November 15, 2019 - 6:53 pm

Well, I spent about a month with a stripper many years ago. Not 48 hours straight in a hotel but 30 days or so in a state of constant anticipation and yearning.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 6:53 pm

Confirmed Joe G. back in the lineup tonight and Skinne starts (we know Starrett is still week to week).

No Marody (although earlier in the week Woody said its not long tem) and no Maksimov (bah – I thought he played well last weekend and don’t understand why he’s not an every day player).

Scungilli Slushy November 15, 2019 - 6:21 pm

OriginalPouzar: Michael Ferland, who’s contract is being used as a potential comparable for Kass, got a 4 year deal, coming off concssion issues – he’s a recovering addict.

How many pro sports players do you estimate use PEDs or the usual to get by?

I’m thinking lo. Kassian with be coveted but will want to stay. I think 3 will do it which I think is fair. Term, no idea, depending on how stpd his agent is.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 6:04 pm

flea: Looking at Kassian’s situation – it makes the most sense for him to stay in Edmonton. He’s been sober here in Edmonton, and possibly has the supports around him to continue this. Edmonton was the one who salvaged his career, and we’ve been lucky to see Zach begin to reach his draft potential before the lifestyle tookover.

Even so, I think short term (2 year) is the play here for Kassian. I actually don’t think other orgs will take long term chances on him based on his history of substance abuse. I think Kass is all over a 3 year deal from the Oilers, and I bet they could get him down to 2 years if necessary.

The nice thing about him – he can fulfill other roles if the top line isn’t working out.

Michael Ferland, who’s contract is being used as a potential comparable for Kass, got a 4 year deal, coming off concssion issues – he’s a recovering addict.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 5:58 pm

JethroTull: Kassian was born in Windsor, Ontario.A hometown discount would mean he would take less money to play for Detroit, the closest NHL team. Or Toronto if he was feeling patriotic. This could be Zack’s payday, and he may have earned it.

The term actually comes from the UK and soccer teams, where the player w ould often be a fan of the team where he grew up and would take less money at the end of his career to play for a team that he’d always supported, whether it be top flight or semi-pro.There were no tax boundaries like in the major league sports of the US and Canada.

I believe Zack may be LT’s Pisani.

That’s good information on the UK and where the term came from – I didn’t know that.

Of course, as used vis-a-vis the NHL, its common meaning is signing less to stay with you incumbent team.

Also, Zack is an average defensive player and below average penalty killer – I don’t see him at LT’s Pisani at all.

Reja November 15, 2019 - 5:57 pm

OriginalPouzar: In my opinion there was almost zero chance he would break camp with the team.

He’s coming along in the Bake – it’ll take a bit of time but he’s coming.

I guess when you have the number 1 PP in the world you don’t have to rush Bouchard for the Kelfbom position. Said it from day 1 Top 10 PP and PK = Playoffs.

Ryan November 15, 2019 - 5:56 pm

OriginalPouzar: “Maybe if Yamo is ready, you can play a Kassian in the bottom six for the back nine of this season. If he puts up four points in the back nine, you run not walk away.”

Are you suggesting that the coach deploy his lineup in an inferior way due to future cap implications or that the GM may direct the coach to do so – in a year where the team looks to be a playoff team and reasonably likely to battle for the division?

No. Absolutely not. At least not in the linear manner in which you made the connection. Yamamoto would have to ‘win’ the job.

Riding shotgun with McDavid and Draisatl is the best job in hockey, until it’s not.

The downside to the job is the immense press to produce.

There’s a long season ahead and no guarantee that Kassian holds the job for the rest of it.

If Yamamoto is brought up around January, he has skill and shoots right. Decent chance he gets a look on that line if Kassian is struggling.

I’m sure some considerations in roster deployment could be cap related. You could make an argument for Nurse to be playing PP1 (based on previous season data. Nurse had a GFON/60 at 5v4 last season of 8.99 vs 8.06 Klefbom) Obviously having Klefbom who’s locked in at 4 m and change for another three seasons soak up those PP1 points is better from a cap management standpoint.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 5:52 pm

KingerOilredux: – As you probably know there are 3 ways to get in: 1) lottery, 2) agree to raise money for charity 3) pay to run through Marlin Travel (who is the Canadian international rep)

– So none of these are open yet, but one way or the other I’m assured to go, just depends on price.

– Much easier if you are a New Yorker… Your wife ran it: how did she get in?

She got in via the lottery – was her first try to.

Opening the e-mail – may have been the most excited I’ve ever seen her….

Side November 15, 2019 - 5:50 pm

OriginalPouzar,

Excellent.

Thank you.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 5:48 pm

Reja: Me too. I thought he hada better than good chance of make it out of camp, then being put in a sheltered 3rd pairing role and featured on the PP.

In my opinion there was almost zero chance he would break camp with the team.

He’s coming along in the Bake – it’ll take a bit of time but he’s coming.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 5:41 pm

LadiesloveSmid:
I suspected Bouchard would play 50 games in Edmonton this year.

Think I am running like 0/50 on my predictions

At the beginning of the year, I fully expected him to play material games in Edmonton in the 2nd half of the year, not 50 but material.

As of now, I’m thinking he may not even play 10 (which would be fantastic – his ELC would slide for another year and it likely means that the defence is holding and the injuries are aggregating).

Frankly, he is playing a little bit under my expectations in Bakersfield – don’t get me wrong, his offensive skill and transition skill are clear and evident and I haven’t soured one iota on what he will become, however, he is making more mistakes than I anticipated in the offensive zone and his “deficiencies”, well, they remain.

The coaches are asking him to work on physicality in front of the net and urgency in general on retrievals and the back end and, frankly, I have seen too much growth, yet.

It will come – the “junior habits” can take a while and its only been like 15 games. He is not on the top pairing (was with Jones but I would assume Lagesson this weekend).

Playing with a “lesser transition player” in Lagesson, I wonder if Bouch will take over as the anchor of the pair.

McNuge93 November 15, 2019 - 5:36 pm

JimmyV1965: I don’t know why the owners would care about escrow. The rate doesn’t change how much they pay out in total salary. If anything, the escrow battle is within the NHLPA.

The players have actually started to address escrow by reducing the escalator clause amount this past year and maybe future years. Instead of increasing the cap by 2 or 3 million each year via this clause it was increase by a smaller amount this year. Caught some teams by surprise who were hoping for a higher cap.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 5:32 pm

geowal: Can teams retain, without penalty into the next year, on expiring contracts at the deadline? If the sellers have cap space that could free things up and justify getting a higher pick in return.

Yes, they can – retaining (up to 50%) will never have an impact post-contract term like buyouts do.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 5:29 pm

dustrock:
Woodguy v2.0,

Why are you not employed by an actual NHL team?Good stuff.

I was actually thinking along the same lines with respect to WG just a few days ago.

I post on one other site consistently (for close to 15 years) and take quite a bit of grief when I use “fancy stats” to back up my positions.

It will be of surprise to noone here that there are a few on that other site that really really don’t like me (I’m a goof, I know nothing about hockey, etc.) and bring up my “buddies on Lowetide” and how I “just get my opinions from the computer geeks and fake media on LT that don’t know the game”, etc.

I was thinking to myself, I don’t think it will be long before WG is employed by an NHL team.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 5:23 pm

jm: =======
This sums up my thinking. After a blistering start they are 5-4-1 in their last ten (90 point pace). This looks a fair reflection. It’s going to be (close assuming Connor and Leon stay healthy) but that start may see them through. Hat tip to Holland and Tippett.

Hat tip to Caleb Jones also, he played ok. Whereas Kris Russell is painful to watch on his off side it is hardly noticeable with Caleb. Still trying to work that one out.

My buddy (a Rangers fan) and I share an NHL.com subscription here in the Philippines and have never had a problem using a VPN. Interesting.

With respect to Russell vs. Jones vis-a-vis playing their off-side, before the game Tippett spoke about Jones and his foot positioning allowing him to be effective on the off-side – spoke about liking leftie/rightie but that some players have the ability to be effective on their off-sides and that is one of the reasons.

JimmyV1965 November 15, 2019 - 5:17 pm

russ99:
Reja,

Way under. Until Seattle is established the cap won’t jump and there’s a really good likelyhood the players walk out over escrow before Seattle playa a game.

I don’t know why the owners would care about escrow. The rate doesn’t change how much they pay out in total salary. If anything, the escrow battle is within the NHLPA.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 5:13 pm

Side: Broberg is “back up to 15 minutes”? Didn’t he start the year playing a lot of minutes?Has he lost ice time due to performance or something else?

Just going by memory a bit here but he’s basically averaged around 14-15 minutes for most of the year. He maybe had a couple games in the 17 min range early.

When I say “back up” is because I’ve seen him a bit in the 13 minute range a couple of times.

Remember, I think Skelfeeta generally dresses 7D and even 14-15 minutes for an 18-19 year old n that league is pretty substantial and a big deal.

I don’t think its been a performance issue but I’m not the best person to answer questions on the European guys. I do know that, as of a few weeks ago, his possession metrics were at the top of the chart.

Gerta Rauss November 15, 2019 - 5:12 pm

russ99:

Way under. Until Seattle is established the cap won’t jump and there’s a really good likelyhood the players walk out over escrow before Seattle playa a game.

Well that’s not true- both the NHL and the PA decided in Sept not to exercise the “out” clause, so the CBA will expire in Sept of ’22.

Seattle joins the NHL at the draft in June of ’21, and plays it’s first game in Oct of ’21

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 5:02 pm

Woodguy: Kassian is not 32 next year.

I suggested going year to year after 32.

If I’m Holland I want to go 2 years with him and take him until he’s 31.

Yes, two years would be ideal but, realistically, assuming he continues to perform for the rest of the year in the ballpark of his first quarter performance, he will get offered more term on the open market – I think we can be confident in that.

There is likely some loyalty to the Oilers and the organization but if he’s offered two more years than in Edmonton…….

It would be great if we could lock him up in early 2020 (assuming continued performance) for two years. Kass seems to me like he may be willing to re-sign prior the hitting the market.

I do think that Holland may be willing to commit to a longer term on this player – time will tell.

Bag of Pucks November 15, 2019 - 5:01 pm

meanashell11: I’m not sure it was the same dancer, memory getting cloudy, but one time they got Eddie on stage, stripped him down, put a saddle on him, and road him around the stage like a pony. True story.

Bet the song playing was Mony Mony.

“Ride the pony! Ride the pony!”

Tesla's Hair November 15, 2019 - 4:49 pm

I scrolled through oilershockey headlines and TheMcDavidDraisaitlFreeway catches my eye. Of course it is Lowetide link.

Click on link get a nice photo of 97 smiling and 29 hugging him and bright blue background with a Stengel line waking up my mind. Again classic Lowetide.

Wonder where I can find any better place in the online hockeyworld. Is there any virtual Cheers that is even close to this place run not by money but by love of oilers and sharing with others.

Thanks LT and all others who donate their time and brains to contributing to the site in some ways. Love those long term lurkers that say hi, add something because they were inspired by something. Marathons, whiskey, music or whatever. What a hoot. What a journey. I wonder who will continue this for the next generation…and next. This site is lengendary!

GMB3 November 15, 2019 - 4:43 pm

Kinger_Oil.redux: ? – brah: I spoke to those stats. I don’t think that’s his whole story or rating?If he scores 20 goals and 50 points he’s going to get Connolly plus money full stop.

– what’s your gripe?

I was just trying to see if you understand rate statistics. But I guess not ??‍♂️. No gripe, just surprising that you draw the conclusion that they are the same kind of scorer when one has shown to be considerably more prolific than the other. Reminds me of the folks on this fine blog that thought Chiasson was a comparable player to Connolly. Not even close. Full stop.

You could be right, he may command that kind of money, but I highly doubt he shoots 25% to finish the rest of the year, and I doubt he gets 4 years at 4+.

At least we can both agree that it would be unwise for Ken to be the guy shelling out that kind of cash.

Scungilli Slushy November 15, 2019 - 4:42 pm

In another year Connor and Leon will have more of their man strength and be a year harder.

If Yamo is ready maybe you play Kassian on his opposite to ‘keep the flies off’. If you can’t ditch Neal maybe you move him to the top line and run Kassian Nuge Yama as the second.

Scungilli Slushy November 15, 2019 - 4:35 pm

Kassian and Nurse are soon to be the league’s heavyweights. Players like Lucic, Reaves, Gudbranson aren’t long for the league as it’s going.

Unless a contract demand is too much what GM wouldn’t want the league’s best players and the league’s toughest?

Holland has typically had ruffians that could play on the Wings. It’s always been coveted even back to LT’s old timey days. The difference being the league went through a staged fighting phase, by non NHL talent, that was the exception not the norm.

russ99 November 15, 2019 - 4:31 pm

Reja,

Way under. Until Seattle is established the cap won’t jump and there’s a really good likelyhood the players walk out over escrow before Seattle playa a game.

Scungilli Slushy November 15, 2019 - 4:28 pm

Reja: I don’t why but Kass reminds me of Cleary with his speed. Is Mama Kass a late bloomer like some others with speed over the years.

He’s always been fast. He’s a late bloomer getting his life together so it wasn’t interfering with his hockey.

Scungilli Slushy November 15, 2019 - 4:22 pm

Andy Dufresne:
TeamPP%

Tampa Bay32.00
Edmonton 31.75
Boston 30.51
St. Louis26.23
Florida25.00
Carolina 24.59

TeamPK%

San Jose 90.5
Pittsburg88.1
Vegreville87.8
Edmonton 87.3
Philadelphia86.3
NY Islanders 85.7

Edmonton 31.75 +87.3= 119.05

We win the Scott Bowman Award

#WhatTheF#ckIsHappeningHere

#LeonWInsHart

Anyone notice Connor calls him Leo?

Has to be a nickname. Leo is better than Draisy ?

Reja November 15, 2019 - 4:14 pm

Kinger_Oil.redux: ? – brah: I spoke to those stats. I don’t think that’s his whole story or rating?If he scores 20 goals and 50 points he’s going to get Connolly plus money full stop.

– what’s your gripe?

I don’t why but Kass reminds me of Cleary with his speed. Is Mama Kass a late bloomer like some others with speed over the years.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 4:08 pm

Ryan: I can’t believe the level of irrational exuberance here for the next Kassian contract. Might be higher than after the San Jose series.

Let’s not forget that he had four points in the first 41 games played last season (he played 38).

He has three season in his NHL career in which he’s hit double digits in goals.

He had a career high 29 points six seasons ago.

I like Kassian, but let’s not get crazy here.

This season will be his best offensive NHL year ever.

I don’t love 29, 30, and 31-year-old seasons for this player type.

Playing him with 29 and 97 is going to inflate the heck out of his next contract unfortunately.

Maybe if Yamo is ready, you can play a Kassian in the bottom six for the back nine of this season. If he puts up four points in the back nine, you run not walk away.

There’s going to be a lot of risk in Kassian’s next contract.

“Maybe if Yamo is ready, you can play a Kassian in the bottom six for the back nine of this season. If he puts up four points in the back nine, you run not walk away.”

Are you suggesting that the coach deploy his lineup in an inferior way due to future cap implications or that the GM may direct the coach to do so – in a year where the team looks to be a playoff team and reasonably likely to battle for the division?

Kinger_Oil.redux November 15, 2019 - 4:01 pm

GMB3: Once again, ignoring the rate stats.

? – brah: I spoke to those stats. I don’t think that’s his whole story or rating? If he scores 20 goals and 50 points he’s going to get Connolly plus money full stop.

– what’s your gripe?

Reja November 15, 2019 - 4:00 pm

What’s the over-under the cap going up in the next 3 years 8 million.

Reja November 15, 2019 - 3:57 pm

OriginalPouzar:
“Leon Draisaitl, the human apple tree with 5 assists” – Zack Kassian

Love this guy – such a leader.

Pretty quiet 5 assist game he’s quietly picking up fans for the MVP conversation. When’s the last time a team had 2 nominations?

Reja November 15, 2019 - 3:52 pm

flea: Looking at Kassian’s situation – it makes the most sense for him to stay in Edmonton. He’s been sober here in Edmonton, and possibly has the supports around him to continue this. Edmonton was the one who salvaged his career, and we’ve been lucky to see Zach begin to reach his draft potential before the lifestyle tookover.

Even so, I think short term (2 year) is the play here for Kassian. I actually don’t think other orgs will take long term chances on him based on his history of substance abuse. I think Kass is all over a 3 year deal from the Oilers, and I bet they could get him down to 2 years if necessary.

The nice thing about him – he can fulfill other roles if the top line isn’t working out.

I could easily see Kass coaching after he calls it a day and retires

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 3:44 pm

“Leon Draisaitl, the human apple tree with 5 assists” – Zack Kassian

Love this guy – such a leader.

defmn November 15, 2019 - 3:36 pm

duct tape and foil:
defmn,

Defense depth is critical, and we haven’t even been able to fully enjoy it until Larsson gets back next week.

You don’t trade Nurse or Klef until one of Jones, Samarukov or Broberg definitively proves themselves as top 4 capable. You don’t trade Larsson until Bear and Bouchard both definitively prove themselves as top 4 capable.

We are not trading any of our existing top 4 dman before summer 2021. Jones and Lagesson are playing for a spot on the team and the loser will be traded. Want to see more of both this season.

I don’t think that is how it works. Good GM’s make trades when they think the trade makes their team better. If you think trading a top four dman for offence doesn’t accomplish that you don’t make the trade but saying you don’t trade a player until the perfect moment is just not true.

You trade when you think the trade makes your team better off. Sometimes that is for a particular season and sometimes it is for the future so all this stuff about you don’t trade any dmen because we finally have depth there is irrelevant. You trade when you think the trade improves the team.

So I will stick with my opinion, thanks anyway. If Holland knows that Nurse can’t be signed this summer to a contract that equates to his valuation of Nurse as a player it is his job to find a way to turn that loss into a win.

To take a silly example. If Colorado phones tomorrow and offers MacKinnon for Nurse do you say “no”? Well then it isn’t obvious that Nurse can’t be traded. You don’t know that because you don’t know what his next contract will require and you don’t know what players he can bring back in.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 3:33 pm

dustrock:
(1) If Nurse wants $7m +, what do you do?I am well known here as not being the biggest fan but having a stable D corpse for the first time since 2006 would be nice.

(2) What kind of season does Neal have to have to not buy him out next summer?

3 years left after this at $5.75m.

$1.916m over 6 years.Savings is $3.833m for 3 years of McDavid’s prime.

Wait until 2021 and same savings but for 2 years, and paying out $1.916m over 4 years instead of 6.

Maybe the dream is to trade him for a team that needs the cap hit for the floor?

Otherwise unless you really think he’ll score 25 goals next year, seems like should be bought out.

And again, what a goddamn trade for Holland.

Just a reminder buying out Lucic next year would be $500K savings, $2m savings, $500K savings, with paying out $4.812m, $3.5m, $4.812m, $437,500 (x3) on the cap hit.

He will never be worth his current cap hit but it would be tough to buy out a 20-25 goal scorer for a team that doesn’t have a ton of scoring depth.

Turn it around, forget his current cap hit, it is what it is – can you replace what would be lost with the cap savings? I don’t know that the answer to that is yes.

As far as trading to a “cap floor team”, that has essentially become a myth given there are almost no cap floor teams. Arizona, of all organizations, is an upper cap limit team.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 3:28 pm

verdad:
Trading Nurse is an imperative for this team
Ever night proves it
Trade him asap, Toronto and Winnipeg the obvious targets
Nylander or Ehlers for Nurse is a steal

How do you make either of those work for the cap right now?

Jordan November 15, 2019 - 3:27 pm

Re Zach Attack

Gagners 3+M comes off the books next summer.

It’s really easy for me to see flipping 2ishM of that money over to Kassian, and figure out how long the Oilers are willing to entertain that number.

However, it doesn’t take into account the expansion draft in ’21.

Might make more sense to offer him 1 year at 4.5 and guarantee him McDavid time and tell him they’ll re-sign him after the expansion so they don’t have to protect him and can keep the team together.

Zack is a team first guy. He’d buy in, I think. And that still leaves 1M for the replacement for Gagner down the lineup. Maybe Gagner even comes back for league min, in search of a cup?

Could we actually see some discounts on FAs who want to ride on the McDraihHopkins Winners Wagon?

meanashell11 November 15, 2019 - 3:16 pm

Bag of Pucks: Nope. I’m not Eddie.

Seems there’s a fair few dancers with a giving spirit. God bless them all. They’re doing good works.

I’m not sure it was the same dancer, memory getting cloudy, but one time they got Eddie on stage, stripped him down, put a saddle on him, and road him around the stage like a pony. True story.

GMB3 November 15, 2019 - 3:15 pm

Kinger_Oil.redux: – Connolly played for Washington, a prolific team that had lots of scoring and won lots of games, in a different role, in different circumstances, with better line mates untill Kass got Drai and McD.

– Kassian put up 24, 19, 29 and say 50 points: and had little opportunity to play with skill untill last year what mid-season?Connolly went 24, 23 27 then 46.

– There will be GM’s who will pay more for Kassian assuming he finishes above 50 points

– 2 x 3MM is crazy-talk IMO: great do that if you can.If my aunt had balls… we will see.I say he gets a 4 handle + over 4 yrs somewhere: I hope we aren’t that team

Once again, ignoring the rate stats.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 2:51 pm

BrantfordBoy:
OriginalPouzar,

Agreed… so we agree on 3x3M then?

I’m not fully comfortable with it, however, if he continues this way for the rest of the year, it would be tough to let him go and he will have earned it.

Yes, he’s being zoomed, of course, but, at the same time, he is NOT a passenger – he is value for his play right now.

duct tape and foil November 15, 2019 - 2:51 pm

defmn,

Defense depth is critical, and we haven’t even been able to fully enjoy it until Larsson gets back next week.

You don’t trade Nurse or Klef until one of Jones, Samarukov or Broberg definitively proves themselves as top 4 capable. You don’t trade Larsson until Bear and Bouchard both definitively prove themselves as top 4 capable.

We are not trading any of our existing top 4 dman before summer 2021. Jones and Lagesson are playing for a spot on the team and the loser will be traded. Want to see more of both this season.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 2:46 pm

Durag:
Do we think that Kassian might have some loyalty to the organization that took a chance on him and resurrected his career? Not to mention lets him ride shotgun with the best 2 players in the league. Does he take the fabled hometown discount? 4 years, $10M?

I am not at all impugning the patient approach, but sometimes I can’t help but think that Tyler Benson would look awfully good on that 2nd line.

I’ve been posting along these lines for a few days – Kass very likely feels a sense of loyalty towards the organization and we may just see the first ever actual “home town discount” for the Oilers.

We don’t know this for certain but its reasonable to think its an option.

From being “in the program” and having a bit of insight in to Zack’s recovery and the process and the daily work he much do, I am highly confident that he has a great deal of gratitude towards the organization – now, if that has any effect when we are talking millions of dollars, that I don’t know.

____________________________

Benson is currently the top forward for the Condors – he’s been a driver the last 4 games or so and has found his scoring touch. I’d be comfortable with his call-up at any time, I think he’s ready for the shot. I’m confident he will get some 2 or 3 LW at bats in the NHL this year but just not sure when – injuries will happen at some point.

duct tape and foil November 15, 2019 - 2:40 pm

I think Kass should be (and very likely will be) very careful about moving away from a supportive environment where he was able to get his life together. The guy might be dead or out of hockey without the chance the Oilers gave him. It’s a feel good story that everyone should be careful not to screw up. The extra million is not worth it if you risk a relapse and you already have plenty in the bank. There is much more than just dollars and cents in play here.

Been looking at bottom 6 line combos and Russell-Granlund-Haas looks interesting as a 4th line combo. Not sure why Tip has not use the Russell-Granlund combo more as their numbers together are pretty good in limited minutes. Add Haas and you might have a defensively solid line that can scoot. Wouldn’t play them against giants, but they may be effective against the speed merchants. Need a 3C for these bottom 6 forward to really jell. JP for Pageau please…..

JimmyV1965 November 15, 2019 - 2:39 pm

GMB3: I don’t think Jim Benning has the cap space to sign Kassian as well. Ferland also signed at 27, Kassian will be signing at 29. Can’t see a ton of GM’s lining up to sign Kassian until 33.

Any team that needs some skilled physicality and has a legit shot at winning the cup will be very interested in Kassian. There will be many suitors. GMs drool over guys like Kassian.

defmn November 15, 2019 - 2:25 pm

Andy Dufresne: I wouldnt usually condone a two for one going in the wrong direction, but would two of the three contracts listed below be a good fit for a roster like ours that lacks depth at the forward position?

If so, which two?

Kerfoot, AlexanderC, LW AGE 25$3,500,000$3,500,000$3,500,000$3,500,000

Johnsson, AndreasLW AGE24$3,400,000$3,400,000$3,400,000$3,400,000

Kapanen, KasperiRWAGE 23$3,200,000$3,200,000$3,200,000

Qualifier: I would sign Nurse and keep him for one more year before deciding on his future. Once he’s signed give him more PP time and on ice time with THE DUO (and 2nd year Bear)

It’s an interesting list of players for sure. I mention Toronto as a possible target because, unlike Winnipeg, they have a GM & HC who are working under enormous pressure to win now.

Your list is tempting because it fills two of Woodguy’s spots with quality young players who are under contract for term and I like all of them as they are with room for all of them to improve as players.

When it comes to trading Nurse the discussion is so filled with emotion it makes it difficult to even discuss but the part that can’t be overstated is that GM’s do not trade players. They trade contracts or they trade draft picks. That is quite different than trading players – especially in the salary cap era.

Trading Nurse this year would definitely weaken the team just as they are starting to believe in themselves so I wouldn’t do it unless I knew for a fact that re-signing him was going to be impossible within a range that made sense. I wouldn’t be happy to trade him this year but I think most here would understand that it was another of Chiarelli’s mistakes that left Holland in a bad situation since he should have been signed for term two years ago.

I’ll let others argue what that upper limit is but as a GM you don’t always get the good deal offer at the optimum time. Sometimes you have to grab it when it is available even if it means short term pain – which this would for sure.

I’d rather trade any of Larsson, Russell or even Benning but you don’t get the same player haul for any of them.

Bank Shot November 15, 2019 - 2:24 pm

JimmyV1965:
I don’t see why Kassian would accept a lesser contract than Ferland. IMO anything less than four years is wishful thinking.

What team is going to give Kassian Ferland money?

The guy’s career high before this season is 29 points.

The “Who is going to play with McDrai?” question is the least of this team’s worries.

If Kassian wants to be paid like more than the bottom six guy that he is, let another team pay it. McDrai can balloon some other guy’s numbers next season.

I’d rather bring back Maroon on a 1 year deal for $2 million then overpay for Kassian.

Kinger_Oil.redux November 15, 2019 - 2:24 pm

GMB3: So despite the evidence outlined in the prior post, you still think they typically score at the same rate?

– Connolly played for Washington, a prolific team that had lots of scoring and won lots of games, in a different role, in different circumstances, with better line mates untill Kass got Drai and McD.

– Kassian put up 24, 19, 29 and say 50 points: and had little opportunity to play with skill untill last year what mid-season? Connolly went 24, 23 27 then 46.

– There will be GM’s who will pay more for Kassian assuming he finishes above 50 points

– 2 x 3MM is crazy-talk IMO: great do that if you can. If my aunt had balls… we will see. I say he gets a 4 handle + over 4 yrs somewhere: I hope we aren’t that team

flea November 15, 2019 - 2:23 pm

Oilman99: After hearing his mother talk the other night in Anaheim, i think there is a very good possibility that a hometown discount is in play.

Looking at Kassian’s situation – it makes the most sense for him to stay in Edmonton. He’s been sober here in Edmonton, and possibly has the supports around him to continue this. Edmonton was the one who salvaged his career, and we’ve been lucky to see Zach begin to reach his draft potential before the lifestyle took over.

Even so, I think short term (2 year) is the play here for Kassian. I actually don’t think other orgs will take long term chances on him based on his history of substance abuse. I think Kass is all over a 3 year deal from the Oilers, and I bet they could get him down to 2 years if necessary.

The nice thing about him – he can fulfill other roles if the top line isn’t working out.

Numenius November 15, 2019 - 2:20 pm

Maybe this has already been noted, but I thought it was cool that it was exactly Manning who fought for McDavid the other day.

I’d imagine McDavid appreciated the gesture in light of past sins.

dcsj November 15, 2019 - 2:19 pm

Does the expansion draft figure into the timing of a Kassian resigning at all?

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 2:17 pm

who:
Not sure what to think about this team right now. But the points are in the bank.
At the start of the year I figured if things broke right they would be fighting for the last playoff spot.
Well things have certainly broke right.
It appears we have a solid goaltending tandem.Koskinen has been very good and Smith has been average to spectacular, depending on the night.
It appears that Ethan Bear is a quality NHL dman. I haven’t seen anything from him in 21 games that makes me doubt his ability.
It appears the PK issues have been fixed. In particular,the cross seam pass through the kill zone is now a rare event.
Those were 3 big question marks heading into the season. They are now big positives heading forward.
A note of caution. We have had 3 blowout wins in the last 4 games. The last 2 were against teams severely depleted by injury. I’m not sure the Oilers actually outplayed Colorado last night. They just rode McDavid and a red hot powerplay to an easy win.
Nevertheless, they are winning the games they should and at this point,it’s hard not to see them making the playoffs. Stillnot ready to call them a cup contender though.

They can only beat the team’s put in front of them and, in 3 of the last 4 games, they won by 4 goals – including a road game.

Yes, the Avs were depleted but, even so, that game was no gimme – that depleted lineup had won 3 straight and scored 17 goals – this included a blow out of Nashville. The goalie was coming off a 40 save shutout of a team with a deep offence (the Jets).

Last night was a game the Oilers should have won but it could have gone either way and, of course, in years past, a game they would generally lose.

I don’t think the bottom is falling out without catastrophic injury *knock on wood*.

GMB3 November 15, 2019 - 2:17 pm

JimmyV1965:
I don’t see why Kassian would accept a lesser contract than Ferland. IMO anything less than four years is wishful thinking.

I don’t think Jim Benning has the cap space to sign Kassian as well. Ferland also signed at 27, Kassian will be signing at 29. Can’t see a ton of GM’s lining up to sign Kassian until 33.

frjohnk November 15, 2019 - 2:15 pm

Kinger_Oil.redux:
GMB3,

– Kassian though has more attributes that GM’s like: his combo of size/skill/speed/truculence is fairly unique.We will see on how he ends up this year, but north of 50 points he’s getting more than Connolly IMO.Before last year Connolly was a 25 point player (same range as Kassian historically)

– He would be not optimizing his family’s affairs if he were to sign the $3MM x 2 that some think he should in Edmonton, if he scores more than 50 points

– Who knows, maybe Holland is working on that offer right now….

Does Kassian hit 46 points with Lars Eller?

Kassian has shown he can play with skill, but lets not crazy and think he is a $5M dollar player. He is playing with the two best players in the game right now. If he is playing with a center like Lars Eller, his production would be nowhere near what it is today.

Just as recently as last year, he went half a season and scored something like 4 points. I dont think he is a 8 point player of a season or a 60 point player over a season either. If a GM finds the happy medium here and signs him to a contract that factors this is in and his age, then its a good contract for both sides.

I like Kassian, love his story, I hope he stays an Oiler for the foreseeable future but it has to make sense.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 2:13 pm

Bohologo: If you ran provincial cross-country back in the day, you’ll have no problems going under four hours; talent doesn’t go away, and you’ve already embraced the suffering aspect of this otherwise fun past-time.

The Sunday long run is definitely key for me, not only in terms of building fitness, but it’s a good way to build confidence that you can cope with the distance on race day.

I’ve done races on both sides of the pond (live in Russia), most recently Amsterdam last month.Also done San Sebastian in Spain, Nice-Cannes in France, and Moscow, all of which I’d recommend.In the U.S. I’ve done Philly, Marine Corps, a small race near Annapolis called the B&A, and Boston.Haven’t done NYC yet, but I hear it’s an amazing experience.

Enjoy the journey to race day, and let us know how your prep is coming along!

My wife was blown away when she did NYC a few years ago – the crowd support, along the entire route, is INSANE!

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 2:11 pm

IceSage: I’m a marathon vet also, flirted with 3 hours and enjoyed Boston a decade ago.
Great periodization advice from boho and it’s true about the 2 ‘halves’ which can be mitigated with pacing and hydration / nutrition (not easy in the excitement and competitiveness of the day)
You have a year and can do it.If you ran x-country in high school, the neuro-adaptation and mental toughness are there.If, like I was, you are carrying a few middle-aged pounds, you will get faster as you train, merely by getting lighter – it’s really empowering!
If you look at your high school times, you can extrapolate a reasonable goal for your marathon time.(eg. sub 20 min 5k should easily get you in the 3:30 range for first marathon) Of course you will also run some prep races – a half marathon is a must, about 6 weeks prior.
Cross train, carbo load, rest up, moderate indulgences – all will tip the scales in your favor.
Also, if you get an overuse strain, don’t ignore it!Max the rest and rehab or you’ll be sunk.
NYC is a ‘tougher’ marathon with lots of elevation but what a way to see the town!
Congrats.

Boston is my wife’s dream – she’s got a ways to go to qualify – I hope she gets thee one day.

Jethro Tull November 15, 2019 - 2:10 pm

Oilman99: After hearing his mother talk the other night in Anaheim, i think there is a very good possibility that a hometown discount is in play.

Kassian was born in Windsor, Ontario. A hometown discount would mean he would take less money to play for Detroit, the closest NHL team. Or Toronto if he was feeling patriotic. This could be Zack’s payday, and he may have earned it.

The term actually comes from the UK and soccer teams, where the player w ould often be a fan of the team where he grew up and would take less money at the end of his career to play for a team that he’d always supported, whether it be top flight or semi-pro. There were no tax boundaries like in the major league sports of the US and Canada.

I believe Zack may be LT’s Pisani.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 2:09 pm

TheGreatBigMac:
Kassian is on track for 58 points and seems to work with McD and Drai.If things continue in this fashion, would you sign him to continue in that role and what kind of contract.It’s a career year playing with two of the best players in the league, so he shouldn’t get full value.

Here is a number that would make me happy – 3m x 5 years.

Actually quite a bit of dialogue on this topic in this community over the last few days.

I think most (many) would be OK with $3M but not for 5 years.

Personally, I would like to see 2 X $3M but do think that Zack will want (and get) some term.

Giving term of more than a couple of years to non-core players generally does not work out well.

No offence to Zack, he is a big part of the team and the leadership group, but I don’t think we can sign him for term at his age even though he has “earned it”.

This is going to be a tough one and I can see Holland giving him 3-4 years.

GMB3 November 15, 2019 - 2:09 pm

Kinger_Oil.redux:
GMB3,

– Kassian though has more attributes that GM’s like: his combo of size/skill/speed/truculence is fairly unique.We will see on how he ends up this year, but north of 50 points he’s getting more than Connolly IMO.Before last year Connolly was a 25 point player (same range as Kassian historically)

– He would be not optimizing his family’s affairs if he were to sign the $3MM x 2 that some think he should in Edmonton, if he scores more than 50 points

– Who knows, maybe Holland is working on that offer right now….

So despite the evidence outlined in the prior post, you still think they typically score at the same rate?

pts2pndr November 15, 2019 - 2:08 pm

Andy Dufresne: Honest question. You cant see the difference between Kassian and Lucic and Little Kailer?

I would think the difference might be easy to OVER look.?

JimmyV1965 November 15, 2019 - 2:03 pm

I don’t see why Kassian would accept a lesser contract than Ferland. IMO anything less than four years is wishful thinking.

duct tape and foil November 15, 2019 - 2:01 pm

Woodguy v2.0: I get what you’re saying but if a player can do that it has sustain.

No player in the history of hockey can change .885 to .935

We know that the w/o SV% will come up and going w/ SV% will come down because we’ve watch this stuff for 12 years and it always does.

Oh sure I agree. My point was actually that the w/o SV% was not likely to be the all that much related to the goalies. McDavid and Drai (but especially McDavid) had a few shockingly bad defensive games early on. I don’t think the w/wo SV% numbers have too much to do with Kass one way or the other – but CMD and Drai were really bad w/o Kass in the one game with Chase on the top line (and Smith was bad as well).

He’s good on that line (and especially riding shotgun with McDavid) because he does the jobs that need doing: boardwork, forecheck, cycle, hitting, defense, intimidation. I’d try try experiment CMD/Kass with another LW at points in the season though. Just like 2017 playoffs, teams will throw everything they have into shutting down McDavid/Drai, and they will have some success. We will have to move Drai to his own line to counter that just like we did back then, so we might as well get ready for it.

kdc November 15, 2019 - 1:56 pm

Hey guys! Regarding watching Oilers hockey feeds when out of town, try bilasport.net. I’m in Arizona and have access to any hockey, basketball, or nfl game including redzone. NO SUBSCRITION FEE. Just need a good wifi feed.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 1:53 pm

Oilman99: After hearing his mother talk the other night in Anaheim, i think there is a very good possibility that a hometown discount is in play.

and Mom gets a Condo in the Stantec Tower?

#BobNicholsonKnowsOffshoreAccounts

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 1:48 pm

Zack Kassian is represent by Rich Curran

Darrnell Nurse is represented by Anton Thun

here is Anton Thun’s stable of players

Bryan Little $5,291,666 $31,749,996 (2018)
Reilly Smith $5,000,000 $25,000,000 (2017)
Brendan Smith $4,350,000 $17,400,000 (2017)
Andrew Cogliano $3,250,000 $9,750,000 (2018)
Darnell Nurse $3,200,000 $6,400,000 (2018)
Linus Ullmark $1,325,000 $1,325,000 (2019)
Conor Timmins $925,000 $2,775,000 (2018)
Oskar Steen $809,167 $2,427,501 (2019)
Jesper Bratt $749,167 $2,247,501 (2017)
Cliff Pu $745,000 $2,235,000 (2017)
Connor Bunnaman $736,666 $2,209,998 (2017)
Michael Dal Colle $700,000 $1,400,000 (2019)
Brendan Gaunce $700,000 $700,000 (2019)
Cameron Gaunce $700,000 $700,000 (2019)

N64 November 15, 2019 - 1:47 pm

Sorry Toronto.

The Macdonald–Cartier Freeway is just 20 lanes of slow compared to the Mcdavid-Draisaitl Freeway.

Kinger_Oil.redux November 15, 2019 - 1:47 pm

GMB3,

– Kassian though has more attributes that GM’s like: his combo of size/skill/speed/truculence is fairly unique. We will see on how he ends up this year, but north of 50 points he’s getting more than Connolly IMO. Before last year Connolly was a 25 point player (same range as Kassian historically)

– He would be not optimizing his family’s affairs if he were to sign the $3MM x 2 that some think he should in Edmonton, if he scores more than 50 points

– Who knows, maybe Holland is working on that offer right now….

S1R_McJesus_the_1st November 15, 2019 - 1:46 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Bear has indeed “earned” some more PP time but, at the same time, given he’s never played more than 55 games as a pro, is getting used to the grind of the NHL and its schedule, is vastly important at 5 on 5 and is playing legit minutes on the PK, I see no reason to add minutes, even “easier” PP minutes, to his total.

Agreed he deserves the PP time, but there’s no reason to give the kid PP time until we’ve locked him up long term based on his defensive play and puck-moving skills alone.. no reason to pay him for PP production yet.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 1:43 pm

Andy Dufresne:
Roope Hinzt and John Klingberg out for tomorrow

Hintz last played Nov 2nd. Klingberg Nov 5th.

They are 4-0-1 from Nov 2nd until today.

Still a tough game.

GMB3 November 15, 2019 - 1:41 pm

Side: Broberg is “back up to 15 minutes”? Didn’t he start the year playing a lot of minutes?Has he lost ice time due to performance or something else?

In league play he’s been anywhere from 10 to 17 mins a game. I think he got a bit more time out there at the start of the year in the CHL games, but that appears to be a trend across all the SHL teams. I know from following the progress of Holtz, Gunler, and Raymond that they seem to get a bit more time out there in the CHL games.

Kinger_Oil.redux November 15, 2019 - 1:40 pm

OriginalPouzar: Has the lottery for 2020 already happened (or have you “got in” via an alternative method)?

– As you probably know there are 3 ways to get in: 1) lottery, 2) agree to raise money for charity 3) pay to run through Marlin Travel (who is the Canadian international rep)

– So none of these are open yet, but one way or the other I’m assured to go, just depends on price.

– Much easier if you are a New Yorker… Your wife ran it: how did she get in?

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 1:38 pm

ashley: These numbers are interesting.

Kassian is not the only player doing that.All wingers are coming back way deeper than they have in previous seasons.They are playing man-to-man, but the wingers are sagging way off the defenders to help protect the high danger areas closer to the net.In addition, instead of wingers hanging out by the blue line and dashing off at the first hint of a turnover, they are staying close to help with the breakout in transition.

This leaves the point wide open if the opponent can get it back there, but the coaches have the winger charging quickly out to a defender to close the space.Somewhat counterintuitively, it happens less often than previous seasons because it’s hard to keep control of the puck let alone get a pass to the point with 5 guys interrupting play and clogging pass lanes down low.

All lines are doing this.This is a coaching adjustment from Tippett and his crew.Good coaches help players to have better fancy stats.

Agreed all points

Oilman99 November 15, 2019 - 1:37 pm

Durag:
Do we think that Kassian might have some loyalty to the organization that took a chance on him and resurrected his career? Not to mention lets him ride shotgun with the best 2 players in the league. Does he take the fabled hometown discount? 4 years, $10M?

I am not at all impugning the patient approach, but sometimes I can’t help but think that Tyler Benson would look awfully good on that 2nd line.

After hearing his mother talk the other night in Anaheim, i think there is a very good possibility that a hometown discount is in play.

GMB3 November 15, 2019 - 1:37 pm

jm363561: Many thought Maroon would get around $4m or so, and he got half of that (and a ring) but GMs know when a player has been zoomed by line mates. I doubt Zack gets $3m.

If anyone messes with McDavid I am not sure Yamo is the guy to play the enforcer role.?

I will never understand this. Hertl hit McDavid knee on knee with Kassian on the ice. If Hertl is so scared of Zack Kassian why did he do that?

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 1:30 pm

Roope Hinzt and John Klingberg out for tomorrow

Reja November 15, 2019 - 1:30 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Neal is just maintenance – will be fine to play tomorrow.

Neal against the team that drafted then ditched him. I’m calling it early Neal scores tomorrow.

GMB3 November 15, 2019 - 1:27 pm

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Profit,

– Lets look at it another way: If we assume Kassian cools down and ends up 20 goals 50 points (let alone the 28, 60 point current pace), I think he’s more “valuable” than Connolly who signed a 4 x $3.5MM.Kassian and his manager ought to seek at least that, if that’s where he ends up,and I suspect he’d garner more interest than Connolly.

– He’ll get 4x5MM+ if he scores more than 25 goals and 60 points.Connolly was just another guy in Washington, and had outlier 46 point season last year and parlayed that into $14MM guaranteed

They don’t really make great comparables. For one, Connolly spent the majority of his time being centered by Lars Eller.

At 5v5, from 17/18 through today, Connolly averaged 1.14 G/60, 2.33 P/60. Kassian averaged 0.74 G/60, 1.54 P/60. Brett Connolly is 15th in the NHL in G/60 at 5v5 over that time period, Kassian is at 149th.. some names that around him include Jake Virtanen, Patrick Maroon, Tyler Pitlick.

Connolly is year younger, his contract started at 27, Kassians will start at 29.

Conolly has scored 22, 15, 15, and 12 goals in his best 4 seasons. Kassian has scored 15, 14, 10, and 7 in his 4 best seasons. Over the last 3 years (excluding this year) Kassian has scored 29 goals, Connolly 52.

If Conolly commanded 3.5mm, I can’t see Kassian being north of that. If someone signs him for more, I hope it isn’t Ken. He’s scoring on 25% of his shots and that will not last.

People went batty for Patrick Maroon in much the same regard, and even Chiarelli knew that was a bad idea and avoided giving him term or $. The cap isn’t projected to go up by much this year, and a lot of other teams are in a similar situation to us. We don’t have the space to go big on Kassian, I can’t see too many teams having that kind of cap space either.

Love Kass, but he isn’t the guy driving success on that line.

Reja November 15, 2019 - 1:24 pm

LadiesloveSmid:
I suspected Bouchard would play 50 games in Edmonton this year.

Think I am running like 0/50 on my predictions

Me too. I thought he had a better than good chance of make it out of camp, then being put in a sheltered 3rd pairing role and featured on the PP.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 1:15 pm

Neal is just maintenance – will be fine to play tomorrow.

Reja November 15, 2019 - 1:14 pm

Munny: There’s some confusion here. People are reading your original post as $10M AAV, not 3.33.

10 million over three years that’s my prediction.

LadiesloveSmid November 15, 2019 - 1:13 pm

I suspected Bouchard would play 50 games in Edmonton this year.

Think I am running like 0/50 on my predictions

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 1:08 pm

Adios Boys and Girls and Non Binary friends.

See Y’all Saturday.

#TrainKeptARollin

ashley November 15, 2019 - 1:06 pm

Woodguy v2.0:
For some context on Kassian’s huge +1.74/60 Rel TM goal share.

97 and 29:
GF/60 w/ 44 – 4.73
GF/60 w/o 44 – 5.10

They actually score a bit more/60 without him

GA/60 w/ 44 – 1.66
GA/60 w/o 44 – 3.82

Ok, so here’s the source of most of the +1.74

Is Kassian doing anything to lower the goals against?

Expected GA/60 w/44 – 2.80
Expected GA/60 w/o – 2.89

Nope. Those are basically identical.

What about the actual GA, what’s driving that?

SV% w/44 – .953
SV% w/o 44 – .885

There it is.

I honestly think Kassian IS better in his own zone this year.

He’s coming lower into the zone and contesting puck held by the forwards instead of only when the Dman has it, but that’s probably mostly coaching, but he’s doing it.

What he’s not doing is changing Koskinen/Smith from Gustavo (0.885) to Hayek (.953)

That’s just variance and should sort it self out over the season.

These numbers are interesting.

Kassian is not the only player doing that. All wingers are coming back way deeper than they have in previous seasons. They are playing man-to-man, but the wingers are sagging way off the defenders to help protect the high danger areas closer to the net. In addition, instead of wingers hanging out by the blue line and dashing off at the first hint of a turnover, they are staying close to help with the breakout in transition.

This leaves the point wide open if the opponent can get it back there, but the coaches have the winger charging quickly out to a defender to close the space. Somewhat counterintuitively, it happens less often than previous seasons because it’s hard to keep control of the puck let alone get a pass to the point with 5 guys interrupting play and clogging pass lanes down low.

All lines are doing this. This is a coaching adjustment from Tippett and his crew. Good coaches help players to have better fancy stats.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 12:55 pm

KingerOilredux:
Bohologo,

– Thanks man!I was hoping/anticipating advice for my Marathon ambition

– I live in Toronto, will run some 5K’s/10K’s in spring to get ready for NYC Marathon in Oct 2020

– Way back I ran Cross-Country in High School at provincials, so I have some idea of what I’m getting into

– Where do you run, what marathons?Plus this new running stroller: two birds with one stone…

– Everyone says key is the Sunday run as the foundation piece.I’ve got lots of work to do, but my buddy who did it, he really did stoke something: the challenge and fire is there

Has the lottery for 2020 already happened (or have you “got in” via an alternative method)?

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 12:55 pm

Team PP%

Tampa Bay 32.00
Edmonton 31.75
Boston 30.51
St. Louis 26.23
Florida 25.00
Carolina 24.59

Team PK%

San Jose 90.5
Pittsburg 88.1
Vegreville 87.8
Edmonton 87.3
Philadelphia 86.3
NY Islanders 85.7

Edmonton 31.75 + 87.3 = 119.05

We win the Scott Bowman Award 🙂

#WhatTheF#ckIsHappeningHere

#LeonWInsHart

Anyone notice Connor calls him Leo?

SVR November 15, 2019 - 12:54 pm

Here is my Defenceman succession plan

2020 – 2021 season
Klefbom – Larsson
Nurse-Ethan
Jones – Benning
Russell traded at deadline this year or over the summer for whatever you can get
Nurse resigned at 7 times 8 years
Benning resigned at 2.25 times 2 years

2021 – 2022 season
Nurse-Bear
Klefbom-Bouchard
Jones-Benning
Larsson traded at 2021 deadline or let walk as UFA

2022 – 2023 season
Nurse- Bear
Klefbom-Bouchard
Broberg – Jones

Benning traded for a pick or prospect

I would look at trading Klefbom during or after this season as his sweet contract expires and he’ll be expensive

I would go long term on Nurse (he’s a very good d-man and best buds with Connor and Leon), Bear, Bouchard, and hopefully Broberg if he pans out as the top 4

My idea does not account for Lagesson,Persson or Samorukov. One or more of these guys could be an answer at some point

Crazy to think of the possibilities for the blue going forward. Defense the Achilles heel for the org for so many years

Let the good times roll!

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 12:49 pm
geowal November 15, 2019 - 12:47 pm

OriginalPouzar: He’s been on LTIR but the Oilers have generally been below their adjusted cap accrual limit so they have been acrruing a bit of cap and banking it but it has been nominal as they’ve generally been within $100K.

Its going to be an “interesting” deadline – half the league is in to LTIR relief or within a few hundred grand of the cap – there won’t be many teams that can actually acquire a material contract – even with only 1/3 of the season left.

Can teams retain, without penalty into the next year, on expiring contracts at the deadline? If the sellers have cap space that could free things up and justify getting a higher pick in return.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 12:47 pm

duct tape and foil:
Woodguy v2.0,

I don’t think it’s the goalies who have been pretty solid every night with few exceptions. If memory serves, McDavid and Drai were giving up an alarming number of HD chances earlier in the year. The question is whether Kass made any difference to the number of those allowed. Context required to explain those SP numbers given the generally solid play of the goalies.

I get what you’re saying but if a player can do that it has sustain.

No player in the history of hockey can change .885 to .935

We know that the w/o SV% will come up and going w/ SV% will come down because we’ve watch this stuff for 12 years and it always does.

jm363561 November 15, 2019 - 12:47 pm

Andy Dufresne: For an analytics neophyte like me, this is pure gold.

Talk about peeling back the oinion.

“And there it is” …well done…Thank You.

#FormAndSubstance

#ShowThatShitToKassiansAgent

+1. This was a terrific analysis.

jm363561 November 15, 2019 - 12:45 pm

Ryan: I can’t believe the level of irrational exuberance here for the next Kassian contract. Might be higher than after the San Jose series.

Let’s not forget that he had four points in the first 41 games played last season (he played 38).

He has three season in his NHL career in which he’s hit double digits in goals.

He had a career high 29 points six seasons ago.

I like Kassian, but let’s not get crazy here.

This season will be his best offensive NHL year ever.

I don’t love 29, 30, and 31-year-old seasons for this player type.

Playing him with 29 and 97 is going to inflate the heck out of his next contract unfortunately.

Maybe if Yamo is ready, you can play a Kassian in the bottom six for the back nine of this season. If he puts up four points in the back nine, you run not walk away.

=======

Many thought Maroon would get around $4m or so, and he got half of that (and a ring) but GMs know when a player has been zoomed by line mates. I doubt Zack gets $3m.

If anyone messes with McDavid I am not sure Yamo is the guy to play the enforcer role.?

Munny November 15, 2019 - 12:42 pm

Reja: Everyone knows its contract year and he’s being dragged by Leon and Connor but it’s all 5 on 5 no PP time and he also kills penalties and brings grit. If he gets replaced on the top line is his value still
worth more then 3.33 in a different batting order.

There’s some confusion here. People are reading your original post as $10M AAV, not 3.33.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 12:36 pm

dustrock:
Woodguy v2.0,

Why are you not employed by an actual NHL team?Good stuff.

Thanks.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 12:34 pm

Woodguy v2.0:
For some context on Kassian’s huge +1.74/60 Rel TM goal share.

97 and 29:
GF/60 w/ 44 – 4.73
GF/60 w/o 44 – 5.10

They actually score a bit more/60 without him

GA/60 w/ 44 – 1.66
GA/60 w/o 44 – 3.82

Ok, so here’s the source of most of the +1.74

Is Kassian doing anything to lower the goals against?

Expected GA/60 w/44 – 2.80
Expected GA/60 w/o – 2.89

Nope. Those are basically identical.

What about the actual GA, what’s driving that?

SV% w/44 – .953
SV% w/o 44 – .885

There it is.

I honestly think Kassian IS better in his own zone this year.

He’s coming lower into the zone and contesting puck held by the forwards instead of only when the Dman has it, but that’s probably mostly coaching, but he’s doing it.

What he’s not doing is changing Koskinen/Smith from Gustavo (0.885) to Hayek (.953)

That’s just variance and should sort it self out over the season.

For an analytics neophyte like me, this is pure gold.

Talk about peeling back the oinion.

“And there it is” …well done…Thank You.

#FormAndSubstance

#ShowThatShitToKassiansAgent

geowal November 15, 2019 - 12:30 pm

“There’s nothing for Oilers fans to complain about and that may be a problem for some. ”

Love it!

Kinger_Oil.redux November 15, 2019 - 12:29 pm

Profit,

– Lets look at it another way: If we assume Kassian cools down and ends up 20 goals 50 points (let alone the 28, 60 point current pace), I think he’s more “valuable” than Connolly who signed a 4 x $3.5MM. Kassian and his manager ought to seek at least that, if that’s where he ends up, and I suspect he’d garner more interest than Connolly.

– He’ll get 4x5MM+ if he scores more than 25 goals and 60 points. Connolly was just another guy in Washington, and had outlier 46 point season last year and parlayed that into $14MM guaranteed

Admiral Ackbar November 15, 2019 - 12:25 pm

Anyone else hear Kevin Quinn mistake Kadri for Khaira twice? Good Gord!

jm363561 November 15, 2019 - 12:24 pm

who:
Not sure what to think about this team right now. But the points are in the bank.
At the start of the year I figured if things broke right they would be fighting for the last playoff spot.
Well things have certainly broke right.
It appears we have a solid goaltending tandem.Koskinen has been very good and Smith has been average to spectacular, depending on the night.
It appears that Ethan Bear is a quality NHL dman. I haven’t seen anything from him in 21 games that makes me doubt his ability.
It appears the PK issues have been fixed. In particular,the cross seam pass through the kill zone is now a rare event.
Those were 3 big question marks heading into the season. They are now big positives heading forward.
A note of caution. We have had 3 blowout wins in the last 4 games. The last 2 were against teams severely depleted by injury. I’m not sure the Oilers actually outplayed Colorado last night. They just rode McDavid and a red hot powerplay to an easy win.
Nevertheless, they are winning the games they should and at this point,it’s hard not to see them making the playoffs. Stillnot ready to call them a cup contender though.

=======
This sums up my thinking. After a blistering start they are 5-4-1 in their last ten (90 point pace). This looks a fair reflection. It’s going to be (close assuming Connor and Leon stay healthy) but that start may see them through. Hat tip to Holland and Tippett.

Hat tip to Caleb Jones also, he played ok. Whereas Kris Russell is painful to watch on his off side it is hardly noticeable with Caleb. Still trying to work that one out.

My buddy (a Rangers fan) and I share an NHL.com subscription here in the Philippines and have never had a problem using a VPN. Interesting.

Profit November 15, 2019 - 12:23 pm

Kinger_Oil.redux,

Yeah I know it depends on what anyone means by discount, but I think it would be discount dollars to get term.

As pointed out by Shane above too – Kassian is unique because of his substance abuse issues. He’s totally reformed, sober, wife, kid, loving life and talking to Spector about watching McD/Drai highlights with his grandkids. I personally (and this is just my opinion) think he’s not about to blow a chance to hang around McD/Drai for the next 3 years over $500K per year. But who knows – you very easily could be correct, that he goes for the big term and payday option as is his right.

I think he’s a bit like Jeff Probst the host of Survivor. That guy could have tried to “do something different” or “go in a different direction” in Hollywood, but he just saw that he had a great gig. It was paying well, and so he settled in and has carved out a great career for himself.

I agree with Woodguy above too – get him to 32 and then go year by year. I just think it’ll cost less than “market”, because of goodwill to the organization, because of lifestyle, because of McD and Drai, and because I think Zack is actually a pretty honest guy who seems like he could be honest with himself. I think he knows he won’t have this success elsewhere, and probably doesn’t put himself in that position. But again, all I have is interviews and quotes.

Side November 15, 2019 - 12:22 pm

OriginalPouzar:
Puljujarvi with a couple of assists in a 3-0 win today

Broberg back up to 15 minutes of ice in Skelfeeta’s loss to Persson’s old team, Vaxjo, yesterday.

Broberg is “back up to 15 minutes”? Didn’t he start the year playing a lot of minutes? Has he lost ice time due to performance or something else?

Reja November 15, 2019 - 12:21 pm

PennersPancakes: Are you sure 10M gets it done? Might have to bump it up to 11 to get him to seriously consider it.

Everyone knows its contract year and he’s being dragged by Leon and Connor but it’s all 5 on 5 no PP time and he also kills penalties and brings grit. If he gets replaced on the top line is his value still
worth more then 3.33 in a different batting order.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 12:21 pm

Andy Dufresne: Does Seattle take him if you leave him unprotected?

Does Seattle take him if you leave him unprotected and give them a prospect like Maksimov?

Does Seatlle take him if you leave him unprotected and give them a prospect like Lagesson?

I bet you can get SEA to take him for less than Laggesson. Maybe less than Maximov too, like a 3rd which is less than a prospect.

They *may* want to move him this summer if they have the opportunity to bring in high priced talent then and SEA expansion draft isn’t until summer 2021.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 12:19 pm

Only change at practice today is Granlund taking Neal’s spot on Nuge’s line.

Neal is the only Oiler not skating – not sure if its a maintenance day or something else.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 12:18 pm

BONE207:
Connor McDavid 14.0
Leon Draisaitl 13.7
Zack Kassian 13.4
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 12.5
Sam Gagner 11.8
Alex Chiasson 11.5
James Neal 11.4
Average 12.6
Patrick Russell 11.2
Jujhar Khaira 10.9
Riley Sheahan 10.4
Joakim Nygard 10.0
Markus Granlund 9.9
Josh Archibald 9.6
Gaetan Haas 8.9

Woodguy, that Joe Average guy is getting more ice-time than I thought in pre-season. Would a 3x$1 million contract be reasonable for his work thus far?

PS…love your work.

Is he good in room?

Thank you

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 12:18 pm

Puljujarvi with a couple of assists in a 3-0 win today

Broberg back up to 15 minutes of ice in Skelfeeta’s loss to Persson’s old team, Vaxjo, yesterday.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 12:16 pm

Earlier in the week Woodcroft mentioned that Joe G. may be back for this weekend and it looks like he is slatted to play tonight – will be good to have him back.

Starrett is still “week to week” and earlier in the week Woody mentioned that Marody’s injury is muscular, not structural, so he won’t be out long term – not quite sure if he’s playing this weekend though – I don’t think so.

Scungilli Slushy November 15, 2019 - 12:14 pm

I don’t think Kassian has true top 6 talent. But if Tip says he keeps the flies off I believe it. Valuable at this time.

Kassian is also not heavy for his height if you look at guys on other rosters which I just did. He won’t lose his wheels soon given he is such a good skater, if he stays healthy. Many of those that fell off at 32 or earlier were never strong skaters.

A bit of a raise and 3-4 years is ok with me as long as movement clauses aren’t there, which are the team killers IMO. Many players can be moved especially if not on high contracts if the GM doesn’t have their hands tied.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 12:13 pm

GMB:
Adam Larsson has been on LTIR since game 1 of the season right? So the Oilers haven’t been accruing any cap space for a deadline acquisition?

He’s been on LTIR but the Oilers have generally been below their adjusted cap accrual limit so they have been acrruing a bit of cap and banking it but it has been nominal as they’ve generally been within $100K.

Its going to be an “interesting” deadline – half the league is in to LTIR relief or within a few hundred grand of the cap – there won’t be many teams that can actually acquire a material contract – even with only 1/3 of the season left.

duct tape and foil November 15, 2019 - 12:09 pm

Woodguy v2.0,

I don’t think it’s the goalies who have been pretty solid every night with few exceptions. If memory serves, McDavid and Drai were giving up an alarming number of HD chances earlier in the year. The question is whether Kass made any difference to the number of those allowed. Context required to explain those SP numbers given the generally solid play of the goalies.

PennersPancakes November 15, 2019 - 12:06 pm

Reja: Said it last week I’ll say it again 3×10 better sign himbefore the playoffs. For those that don’t value Mama Kass you would think differently if he was on the Flames and he just annihilatedMcdavid.

Are you sure 10M gets it done? Might have to bump it up to 11 to get him to seriously consider it.

Bag of Pucks November 15, 2019 - 12:03 pm

meanashell11: I had a friend who did that. Eddie, is that you?

Nope. I’m not Eddie.

Seems there’s a fair few dancers with a giving spirit. God bless them all. They’re doing good works.

dustrock November 15, 2019 - 12:02 pm

Woodguy v2.0,

Why are you not employed by an actual NHL team? Good stuff.

Reja November 15, 2019 - 12:00 pm

GMB3: Didn’t you saw the Oilers were gonna miss Lucic about 55 times this summer?

Yawn

I don’t understand what your saying, maybe you need to have a nap if your tired young fellow.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 11:59 am

For some context on Kassian’s huge +1.74/60 Rel TM goal share.

97 and 29:
GF/60 w/ 44 – 4.73
GF/60 w/o 44 – 5.10

They actually score a bit more/60 without him

GA/60 w/ 44 – 1.66
GA/60 w/o 44 – 3.82

Ok, so here’s the source of most of the +1.74

Is Kassian doing anything to lower the goals against?

Expected GA/60 w/44 – 2.80
Expected GA/60 w/o – 2.89

Nope. Those are basically identical.

What about the actual GA, what’s driving that?

SV% w/44 – .953
SV% w/o 44 – .885

There it is.

I honestly think Kassian IS better in his own zone this year.

He’s coming lower into the zone and contesting puck held by the forwards instead of only when the Dman has it, but that’s probably mostly coaching, but he’s doing it.

What he’s not doing is changing Koskinen/Smith from Gustavsson (0.885) to Hayek (.953)

That’s just variance and should sort it self out over the season.

Bag of Pucks November 15, 2019 - 11:58 am

McSorley33

Love it.

Not as much as I did. Certain memories you’ll happily take to your grave.

Unfortunately, these are the types of reminscences you can’t verbalize around the wife and kids. Good to have a place to share. ?

PinkSocks November 15, 2019 - 11:56 am

Andy Dufresne: I understand why you’re saying this….but its simply not true. Is it in part a mechanism to avoid legal liability yes /probably. Is it a legitimate health protocol. Yes it is.

Legitimate health protocol, sure, but would it really be in existence if money was not an issue? I think not. Follow the money.

BONE207 November 15, 2019 - 11:53 am

Connor McDavid 14.0
Leon Draisaitl 13.7
Zack Kassian 13.4
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 12.5
Sam Gagner 11.8
Alex Chiasson 11.5
James Neal 11.4
Average 12.6
Patrick Russell 11.2
Jujhar Khaira 10.9
Riley Sheahan 10.4
Joakim Nygard 10.0
Markus Granlund 9.9
Josh Archibald 9.6
Gaetan Haas 8.9

Woodguy, that Joe Average guy is getting more ice-time than I thought in pre-season. Would a 3x$1 million contract be reasonable for his work thus far?

PS…love your work.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 11:49 am

Ryan: I can’t believe the level of irrational exuberance here for the next Kassian contract. Might be higher than after the San Jose series.

Let’s not forget that he had four points in the first 41 games played last season (he played 38).

He has three season in his NHL career in which he’s hit double digits in goals.

He had a career high 29 points six seasons ago.

I like Kassian, but let’s not get crazy here.

This season will be his best offensive NHL year ever.

I don’t love 29, 30, and 31-year-old seasons for this player type.

Playing him with 29 and 97 is going to inflate the heck out of his next contract unfortunately.

Maybe if Yamo is ready, you can play a Kassian in the bottom six for the back nine of this season. If he puts up four points in the back nine, you run not walk away.

Points are highly dependant on most common linemates, including points for high end players.

Edit: for some reason originally had “are NOT highly dependant…” which is the opposite of what is true.

That’s why I don’t like to make them the first or even 3rd thing I look at when evaluating a player’s results.

One of the first things I look at is Relative Team Mate Goal Share.

This shows if the player’s team mates get a better or worse goal share when they play with him.

I then go check out the context of the player’s minutes vis a vis QoT and QoC.

Here”s Kassian’s Relative TM Goals share for the last 5 seasons;

15/16 -.61/60
16/17 +0.15/60
17/18 -0.41/60
18/19 -0.05/60
19/20 +1,74/60

You can see his good year in 16/17 where he helped propel Letestu over 50% GF

Last he is “ok” as he didn’t really hurt anyone and he played up and down the line up.

This year he’s obviously on a serious heater with 97/29 but remember this number included how he helps/hurts them as well.

I know his context and team mates over those years (as do most here)

He is trending up and I think 2 years is prudent, but I’d want to see what the year end results are first.

Shane November 15, 2019 - 11:46 am

IMO Kassian is a bit of a unique case. Due to his lifestyle choices as a young man I think he pushed his career trajectory back a few years. It’s unusual for a player to finally hit their potential at age 28 but we’re talking about someone who’s spent the last couple of years getting his off ice self in order. He’s found consistency in Edmonton, got married and has a baby now.

Just listening to him talk in interviews it’s hard to believe this is the same player that broke Gagner’s jaw then mocked him for it when he was playing for Vancouver..

Zack Kassian has finally reached his potential that got him drafted #13 overall, it’s unusual that it’s happening at his age but it’s happening nonetheless, in real time, right before our eyes.

I’d give him 3-3.5 x 3 and then do the ‘Woodguy one years’ afterwards.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 11:45 am

defmn: Toronto is looking particularly susceptible to doing something silly the way their season is going given the expectations the media built up over the summer.

I wouldnt usually condone a two for one going in the wrong direction, but would two of the three contracts listed below be a good fit for a roster like ours that lacks depth at the forward position?

If so, which two?

Kerfoot, Alexander C, LW AGE 25 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000 $3,500,000

Johnsson, Andreas LW AGE 24 $3,400,000 $3,400,000 $3,400,000 $3,400,000

Kapanen, Kasperi RW AGE 23 $3,200,000 $3,200,000 $3,200,000

Qualifier: I would sign Nurse and keep him for one more year before deciding on his future. Once he’s signed give him more PP time and on ice time with THE DUO (and 2nd year Bear)

GMB3 November 15, 2019 - 11:43 am

Reja: Said it last week I’ll say it again 3×10 better sign himbefore the playoffs. For those that don’t value Mama Kass you would think differently if he was on the Flames and he just annihilatedMcdavid.

Didn’t you saw the Oilers were gonna miss Lucic about 55 times this summer?

Yawn

duct tape and foil November 15, 2019 - 11:42 am

More than skill or toughness, Kass showed leadership last night. The team got run over the last game and needs to turn things around, and he comes out of the gate like it was G1 of the playoffs against the sharks 3 years ago. Yes he does pick his spots and adds another guy the opposition needs to watch on the top line (for different reasons). 3 x $3.25 is probably where this winds up and I think Kass knows that EDM is the best place for hin for a variety of reasons. Yes GM love this player type but Kass still carries a lot of baggage and a TON of risk outside EDM which reduces his value. At least he’s not being targeted by the zebras so much anymore.

Nurse has his warts but he’s carrying top pair minutes with a rookie. Shall we not cut him a bit of slack? It’s bloody amazing the defense has held up through Larsson’s injury. Slot Lars back with Klef next week and the defense is solid top to bottom. Same with goaltending.

We are a 3C and a bit more seasoning for our young wingers down in the AHL away from being a very dangerous team. Pageau is hard target as he would help our wingers and push the other centers down to an appropriate slot. I can see playing Shea against bigger slower teams and Haas against smaller faster ones down the line.

Kinger_Oil.redux November 15, 2019 - 11:38 am

Profit:

If there is anyone who may take a hometown discount to continue with the Oilers it is probably Kassian.

– It depends on what you define as home discount: McD allegedly asked for or accepted a $500K discount on his salary. Tom Brady (who isn’t the primary bread-winner), is the 7th highest paid QB, and makes 23, 30 then 32MM next few years

– We don’t know what we don’t know, but Kassian ought to seek a deal that is long term. Last time I checked, GMs pay guys like Okposo, Eriksson, Brown, Horton, Clarkson, Simmons etc all well north of $5MM for term becasue of their size/speed/talent

– He’s not signing for 2 or 3 x $3MM if his agent and Kassian have their way

– Hockey values what Kassian is doing a lot. The projections of what we think he ought to sign for here are guesses: way low, and kidding yourselves IMO.

– Lets see how much interest there is if he ends up with 50+ points, big tough guy playing with skill

– Once the org has enough skill W to split Drai and McD up, Kassian isn’t the ideal winger for them. He’s the winger that is on a line that has two of most impressive scorers in a generation.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 11:37 am

Woodguy v2.0: Neal probably has value if EDM retains $1.25, making him a $4.5MM player for 3 years.

Enough value that you only lose the 1.25 x 3 and don’t have to attach another asset to move him.

Especially if he can finish the season with ~25g or so.

Better than buying him out.

Does Seattle take him if you leave him unprotected?

Does Seattle take him if you leave him unprotected and give them a prospect like Maksimov?

Does Seatlle take him if you leave him unprotected and give them a prospect like Lagesson?

dustrock November 15, 2019 - 11:30 am

Woodguy v2.0: Kassian is not 32 next year.

I suggested going year to year after 32.

If I’m Holland I want to go 2 years with him and take him until he’s 31.

Absolutely. 2 years is great, keep him motivated.

Frankly, I have a lot of time for Kassian, but if we don’t have internal solutions to replace him in 2 years, that’s a whole different problem.

dustrock November 15, 2019 - 11:29 am

Woodguy v2.0,

I agree completely, but I don’t see NHL GMs doing creative trades like this very often.

I still think even a guy like Lucic could be moved from one team (retain) to another team (retain) to a final team, to spread out the hit.

You could theoretically retain $1.25m on Neal, trade him to another team who retains $1m, and then it looks even more attractive for the 3rd team.

JimmyV1965 November 15, 2019 - 11:27 am

The smart play with Kassian might be to sign him in season. You might be able to get him at $3 x 4 if you sign him early in the new year.

defmn November 15, 2019 - 11:26 am

GMB3: Verdad might actually be right for once

Toronto is looking particularly susceptible to doing something silly the way their season is going given the expectations the media built up over the summer.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 11:26 am

Woodguy v2.0: Kassian is not 32 next year.

I suggested going year to year after 32.

If I’m Holland I want to go 2 years with him and take him until he’s 31.

Thank You. I misread it. The Padre clarified it as well.

I completely concur.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 11:26 am

dustrock:
(1) If Nurse wants $7m +, what do you do?I am well known here as not being the biggest fan but having a stable D corpse for the first time since 2006 would be nice.

(2) What kind of season does Neal have to have to not buy him out next summer?

3 years left after this at $5.75m.

$1.916m over 6 years.Savings is $3.833m for 3 years of McDavid’s prime.

Wait until 2021 and same savings but for 2 years, and paying out $1.916m over 4 years instead of 6.

Maybe the dream is to trade him for a team that needs the cap hit for the floor?

Otherwise unless you really think he’ll score 25 goals next year, seems like should be bought out.

And again, what a goddamn trade for Holland.

Just a reminder buying out Lucic next year would be $500K savings, $2m savings, $500K savings, with paying out $4.812m, $3.5m, $4.812m, $437,500 (x3) on the cap hit.

Neal probably has value if EDM retains $1.25, making him a $4.5MM player for 3 years.

Enough value that you only lose the 1.25 x 3 and don’t have to attach another asset to move him.

Especially if he can finish the season with ~25g or so.

Better than buying him out.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 11:24 am

frjohnk: Reread his comment, after the age of 32, go year by year.

AHH…Year by Year at age 32 and beyond…..Gotcha…that makes perfect sense. Thank You.

defmn November 15, 2019 - 11:24 am

//There’s nothing for Oilers fans to complain about and that may be a problem for some.//

The comment section today is particularly hilarious through this filter. 😉

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 11:21 am

Andy Dufresne: Respectfully……no way Kassian is signing a one year deal next year.

I know you cant have meant that….so what did you mean?

Kassian is not 32 next year.

I suggested going year to year after 32.

If I’m Holland I want to go 2 years with him and take him until he’s 31.

McSorley33 November 15, 2019 - 11:19 am

Bag of Pucks: Spent two days in a hotel room with a stripper once. Only stopped to nap, eat and hydrate. Closest I’ve been to a marathon.

I recommend good hygiene and lots of stretching.

Good Gord, that women’s body was a wonderland.

I spit out my coffee!

Love it.

Ryan November 15, 2019 - 11:19 am

GMB3: Kassian isn’t a top line talent though. He’s a complementary player. Look at his scoring history.

I can’t believe the level of irrational exuberance here for the next Kassian contract. Might be higher than after the San Jose series. 🙂

Let’s not forget that he had four points in the first 41 games played last season (he played 38).

He has three season in his NHL career in which he’s hit double digits in goals.

He had a career high 29 points six seasons ago.

I like Kassian, but let’s not get crazy here.

This season will be his best offensive NHL year ever.

I don’t love 29, 30, and 31-year-old seasons for this player type.

Playing him with 29 and 97 is going to inflate the heck out of his next contract unfortunately.

Maybe if Yamo is ready, you can play a Kassian in the bottom six for the back nine of this season. If he puts up four points in the back nine, you run not walk away.

There’s going to be a lot of risk in Kassian’s next contract.

Reja November 15, 2019 - 11:18 am

Andy Dufresne: Respectfully……no way Kassian is signing a one year deal next year.

I know you cant have meant that….so what did you mean?

I mean it when I say respectfully. Who are we going to replace Kassian with on the top liine for $3.5 million and get that kind of production / performance?

We have no one on an ELC whose going to fill that role next year and probably not in two years.

So are we going to free agency and paying out the nose or are we trading assets to replace a guy whose already filling the role on your current roster?

Kassian is a value contract today. And its a very high probability that he will be for the next two years if Kenny plays his cards right. Which I believe he will.

Optimal to me is Kassian anything under $3.75 for 2 years.

Takes away long term risk. And given the player type makes for tradable contract in year two (as insurance) No?

Kassian and Bear are both gifts to this team/franchise/fanbase imo.

Said it last week I’ll say it again 3×10 better sign him before the playoffs. For those that don’t value Mama Kass you would think differently if he was on the Flames and he just annihilated Mcdavid.

dustrock November 15, 2019 - 11:13 am

(1) If Nurse wants $7m +, what do you do? I am well known here as not being the biggest fan but having a stable D corpse for the first time since 2006 would be nice.

(2) What kind of season does Neal have to have to not buy him out next summer?

3 years left after this at $5.75m.

$1.916m over 6 years. Savings is $3.833m for 3 years of McDavid’s prime.

Wait until 2021 and same savings but for 2 years, and paying out $1.916m over 4 years instead of 6.

Maybe the dream is to trade him for a team that needs the cap hit for the floor?

Otherwise unless you really think he’ll score 25 goals next year, seems like should be bought out.

And again, what a goddamn trade for Holland.

Just a reminder buying out Lucic next year would be $500K savings, $2m savings, $500K savings, with paying out $4.812m, $3.5m, $4.812m, $437,500 (x3) on the cap hit.

McSorley33 November 15, 2019 - 11:09 am

PinkSocks: I’m in the US as well.I watch 79 Oilers games per year through NHL.TV and have for the last 15 or so years.The last 3 years has been this pissing contest with Altitude TV and their broadcasting of NHL and NBA games.I’m not sure how you got lucky avoiding the blackout.Perhaps if you are on the East Coast you don’t get it.I shuttle back and forth between Idaho and Texas so I’m still in the general region of Denver.

I VPN’d with success with a Toronto based VPN location last season for an Oil/Avs game, but afterwards read that the NHL can and will revoke subscriptions if a known VPN server is logged in avoiding any blackouts.Not worth it for the 3 games per year to lose the other 79, but frustrating as hell nonetheless.

I am in Winnipeg but I usually watch the oppostion feed.

You are right the Colorado broadcast was actually resembling a Charity telethon with their dispute with Comcast. They would shrink the screen and post a toll free 1-800 number to call Comcast.

Incredibly annoying and very strange.

meanashell11 November 15, 2019 - 11:08 am

Bag of Pucks: Spent two days in a hotel room with a stripper once. Only stopped to nap, eat and hydrate. Closest I’ve been to a marathon.

I recommend good hygiene and lots of stretching.

Good Gord, that women’s body was a wonderland.

I had a friend who did that. Eddie, is that you?

Reja November 15, 2019 - 11:06 am

Andy Dufresne: lol……there are those who will probably say that you should apply to be the new host of Coaches Corner.

#ControversialButEntertaining
I hear they’re changing the name to The Coffee House where a panel of 3 Woman drink imported Lattes discussing which players are the biggest catches looks and money wise.

John Chambers November 15, 2019 - 11:03 am

I’d rather give Kassian term, as opposed to cap hit.

Ie, if the cap hit can stay at $3M while you pay him $5 – $4 – $3 – $2 – $1, then I think you’re helping the player get what they need (maximize career earnings), while gaining yourself the flexibility.

It’s a free market, and based on a game like last night’s, it won’t surprise me if someone offers Kassian the Ferland deal. As much as he’s at the Apex of his career playing with Drai and McD, Kassian hasn’t made enough to turn down millions of dollars.

Keep the cap low and give him the term. He’s one of the key guys in the locker room, same with Nurse. It may be pricy in year 4, and you may have to buy out year 5, but keep this guy and pay him.

GMB3 November 15, 2019 - 11:02 am

verdad2.0:
Trading Nurse is an imperative for this team
Ever night proves it
Trade him asap, Toronto and Winnipeg the obvious targets
Nylander or Ehlers for Nurse is a steal

Verdad might actually be right for once

leadfarmer November 15, 2019 - 11:02 am

jtblack: +1

mistake PC made was locking up expendable players to too much $$ and term ..

I love Kass and what he’s bringing …but spend $$ on the core and rotate the rest in and out …we need the cheap ELC’s to deliver over the next 3 years …BENSON BOUCHARD BROBERG YAMAMOTO and others ..

None of those guys bring what Kassian does
Why is he different than Lucic Ladd Okposo Erickson
He skates in the upper quartile of the league and not at the bottom
His effect on a 7 game series would be huge
How do you counter the small mobile defensemen? You force them into the corner with Kassian. 7 games of getting manhandled and they will be hearing footsteps all over the ice
Kassian is the player you keep
Larsson is the player whose game is going to fall apart when he hits 30. That’s the player you move

GMB3 November 15, 2019 - 11:01 am

Andy Dufresne: Problem is, we dont have a top line talent in the enitre prospect pool.

Betting the Yamo or Benson, or Lavoie are going to be that guy in the next two years is FAR RISKIER than signing Kassian to a 3 year deal imo

Kassian isn’t a top line talent though. He’s a complementary player. Look at his scoring history.

frjohnk November 15, 2019 - 11:01 am

Andy Dufresne: Respectfully……no way Kassian is signing a one year deal next year.

I know you cant have meant that….so what did you mean?

Reread his comment, after the age of 32, go year by year.

verdad2.0 November 15, 2019 - 10:58 am

Trading Nurse is an imperative for this team
Ever night proves it
Trade him asap, Toronto and Winnipeg the obvious targets
Nylander or Ehlers for Nurse is a steal

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 10:57 am

Woodguy v2.0: This is true.

You have to look at total GP, but having him under contract past the age of 32 is unwise.

Good skaters tend to last a bit longer, if the group you’re looking at are “physical players”, but don’t bank on it.

If he can still play then, go year by year.

Respectfully……no way Kassian is signing a one year deal next year.

I know you cant have meant that….so what did you mean?

I mean it when I say respectfully. Who are we going to replace Kassian with on the top liine for $3.5 million and get that kind of production / performance?

We have no one on an ELC whose going to fill that role next year and probably not in two years.

So are we going to free agency and paying out the nose or are we trading assets to replace a guy whose already filling the role on your current roster?

Kassian is a value contract today. And its a very high probability that he will be for the next two years if Kenny plays his cards right. Which I believe he will.

Optimal to me is Kassian anything under $3.75 for 2 years.

Takes away long term risk. And given the player type makes for a tradable contract in year two (as insurance) No?

Kassian and Bear are both gifts to this team/franchise/fanbase imo.

Now heres where my amature GM and personal bias for the player type comes into play. I would give him 3×3.33 if thats what it takes to keep him. i wouldnt be thrilled about it…but I would do it.

The largest risk factor in this whole equation is Kassian’s agent.

Who is Kassians Agent?

who November 15, 2019 - 10:56 am

godot10: Jones isn’t competing for Nurse’s spot.The Oilers don’t have another D remotely close to competing for Nurse’s spot.An NHL team needs at least one big physical defender.Nurse covers that plus had other positive attributes…can play forever and is uber mobile, things which your big physical defender are not.

Broberg ultimately is the threat to Nurse or to Klefbom. But there is nobody else in the short term.

Klefbom and Nurse are critical to the Oilers short and medium term future.

I think I agree with you. But I am conservative by nature. I think I would sign Nurse for 7 million and trade Jones. Actually I would trade Benning, and Russell if possible, and keep Jones. But that’s in a perfect world.
Still hard to get that 7 mil in cap space out of my head though.
For the record, I think Nurse is just as good as Klefbom, with the added dimension of toughness.
But the 3 million in salary difference, over the next 3 years, makes Nurse the most likely trade possibility.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 10:55 am

jtblack: +1

mistake PC made was locking up expendable players to too much $$ and term ..

I love Kass and what he’s bringing …but spend $$ on the core and rotate the rest in and out …we need the cheap ELC’s to deliver over the next 3 years …BENSON BOUCHARD BROBERG YAMAMOTO and others ..

Problem is, we dont have a top line talent in the enitre prospect pool.

Betting that Yamo or Benson, or Lavoie are going to be that guy in the next two years is FAR RISKIER than signing Kassian to a 2 year deal imo

Yamo went 22nd, Benson 32nd, Lavoie 38th….these are not typical 1st line draft spots.

I think we can agree…..none of these guys are Jordan Eberle types.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 10:53 am

godot10: How did that work for Lucic, Ladd, Neal, Brown etc? Jamie Benn’s contract doesn’t exactly look great.

For big men, the early thirties cliff tends to be real.

This is true.

You have to look at total GP, but having him under contract past the age of 32 is unwise.

Good skaters tend to last a bit longer, if the group you’re looking at are “physical players”, but don’t bank on it.

If he can still play then, go year by year.

New Improved Darkness November 15, 2019 - 10:53 am

Grinding term on a bruiser with skill on the cusp of aging out? A bruiser who plays a high risk/reward physical game? Good luck with that. Game theory according to substance abuse.

———-

Kassian: I’d like 5 × $3.

GM: How about 3 × $3?

Kassian: How about 4 × $3.5?

GM: How about 3 × $3.15?

Kassian: How about 3 × $4?

GM: How about 3 × $3.25?

Kassian: How about 2 × $6?

GM: How about 3 × $3.3?

Kassian: How about 1 × $8?

GM: Hmm. You’re not super keen on shorter term, are you?

Kassian: I’ve got this pain in my diode. It’s loose and beginning to wiggle. My dentist told me, “any time you’re ready” while handing me a fat wad of gauze in a bulging to-go clamshell on my way out the door.

GM: You’re now in possession of a fat piece of gauze to staunch the bleeding in the empty socket where the bad-asspainful diode used to reside?

Kassian: And a plastic clamshell in extremely expensive storage that I just can’t wait to recycle.

GM: Fuck me.

Kassian: Your choice. I’d prefer to fuck Calgary. Only not tomorrow. Or the year after. Given my druthers.

———

Calgary will now landfill clamshell plastics it paid $330K to store — August 2019

But the volume of the plastics previously collected since September 2017 that had been stored in 100 semi-trailers rented by the city proved too much to be disposed of in a cost-effective manner, said Howland.

Many recycling facilities don’t accept clamshell containers because they flatten easily when crushed causing automated sorting machines to mistake them for paper. [paraphrased]

Eh Team November 15, 2019 - 10:52 am

Bohologo: Always good to connect with another runner. Boston-man, what an experience! It’s like the Olympics for normal people, a 42.2 km long block party, and by the time you get to city limits the (generally drunk) people are five deep on both sides of the road and the sound is deafening.

I’ve done the NYC marathon twice and it’s absolutely electric. The crowds after you cross into Manhattan at mile 16 are insane. Just don’t expect a fast time, since it’s wall to wall runners for the entire race.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 10:52 am

godot10: You are attributing a comment to me in error.I said five years was far too many.I did NOT propose 5 x $3 million.

No disrespect. You might want to go back and re-read it. I think you mis-read it.

jtblack November 15, 2019 - 10:51 am

LadiesloveSmid:
Kassian will be 29 this summer.

The summer after Lucic turned 29 he dropped from 50P to 34P then to 20P. He might score 12 this year.

29 & 97 are having historic seasons. Don’t overpay their shotgun rider. That might be Yamamoto for 900K next year.

+1

mistake PC made was locking up expendable players to too much $$ and term ..

I love Kass and what he’s bringing …but spend $$ on the core and rotate the rest in and out …we need the cheap ELC’s to deliver over the next 3 years …BENSON BOUCHARD BROBERG YAMAMOTO and others ..

PennersPancakes November 15, 2019 - 10:47 am

godot10,

Also. Playoff GP:

Benn: 32
Lucic: 114
Ladd: 64
Neal: 104
Brown: 85

Kassian: 21

Not necessary end all be all just extra miles, and they arent highway miles. Benn is the only one whos close but has had a few serious surgeries. Although Kassian will be at 37 GP by the end of the year 😉

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 10:46 am

godot10: Toffoli is just an expensive version of Neal, Gagner, and Chiasson.How many of those guys do you need?

Two of the smarter organizations dumped Fiala and Donato and an incompetent GM, who has now been fired.Poile snooked his long time sidekick in one of those deals.I don’t think Kenny Holland is going to pull a Fenton.

Plus, the Oilers need a 3rd line centre, not one-dimensional wingers.

This is a good post.

There is no use spending assets to get wingers when they lack good NHL C’s to play with.

Nuge needs an Actual Top 6 NHL forward, but none of those players fit the bill imo.

Given the significance of this position it *probably* happens in the summer when its easier to acquire these players than during the season unless they are rentals.

In order of need:

Actual NHL 3C
Actual NHL top 6 2LW (Neal prefers RW, but saying they need a RW is ok)
Good young 4C (Haas might work out in the short term then McLeod can be this as he works his way to 3C.
Bottom 6 wingers

I’m astounded that I didn’t need to add any D positions or G positions at this time.

*faints*

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 10:44 am

PennersPancakes: None of those guys could skate. Plus they all had term and cash, plus a few with trade protection, although all have a longer history of scoring. Im talking if we end up with a 4X4 situation or something similar.

Obviously some risk but of all those players Kassian is by far the best skater even in every ones prime.

Agreed. Thats a lot of $6m contracts Godot is comparing this to. With a lot of 5 and 6 year terms.

Gotta assume Godot would be happy at $4m 🙂

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 10:42 am

Reja: Ferland hasdealt with injuries and more importantly concussions in the past before in signed in Vancouver.Zach is reckless in a controlled manner he picks his spots. If anyone thinks he doesn’t open up ice for Connor and Leon has never been levelled like MacKinnon the poor bastard thought he was in Cole Harbour until he made it to the bench.I can’t blame him for disappearing the rest of the game since the Avs had no answer for a drive by Zach attack.

lol……there are those who will probably say that you should apply to be the new host of Coaches Corner. 🙂

#ControversialButEntertaining

PennersPancakes November 15, 2019 - 10:42 am

godot10: How did that work for Lucic, Ladd, Neal, Brown etc? Jamie Benn’s contract doesn’t exactly look great.

For big men, the early thirties cliff tends to be real.

None of those guys could skate. Plus they all had term and cash, plus a few with trade protection, although all have a longer history of scoring. Im talking if we end up with a 4X4 situation or something similar.

Obviously some risk but of all those players Kassian is by far the best skater even in every ones prime.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 10:38 am

GMB3: Many different ways to skin a cat… KY is dogged on the forecheck and great at creating turnovers and had great underlying numbers with McDavid in the past. Obviously they didn’t turn to goals but it’s worth a look at 900K if Kassian wants more than 3.5 mill and 2-3 years. I’d love to keep Kass but his next contract may be untenable with our cap situation.

To your credit though I see Kassian having more longevity than Lucic because he is a far better skater.

I appreciate your respectful answer. Thank you. And I get what you’re saying.

I think its Ken Hollands job to make the signing tenable. Find good players , Keep good players.

No more betting on futures. imo….Kailer is tracking as a bottom 9 player. Honestly bottom 6 right now but I cut him some slack for development time lost to injury.

It would take a LARGE change in development trajectory for Kailor to be groomed as a top line offensive talent. imo.

A small fast tenacious forechecker with average to below average finish is a middle six role.
A small fast tenacious forechecker with below average finish is a bottom six winger.

The jury is still out on Kailer…..NO WAY i contemplate him as a replacement for Kassian in the next two years.

I hope he proves me wrong.

Reja November 15, 2019 - 10:36 am

Andy Dufresne: I must be a GM.

Love Love Love this guy.

Ferland has dealt with injuries and more importantly concussions in the past before in signed in Vancouver. Zach is reckless in a controlled manner he picks his spots. If anyone thinks he doesn’t open up ice for Connor and Leon has never been levelled like MacKinnon the poor bastard thought he was in Cole Harbour until he made it to the bench. I can’t blame him for disappearing the rest of the game since the Avs had no answer for a drive by Zach attack.

godot10 November 15, 2019 - 10:35 am

PennersPancakes:
If other GMs love Kassian enough to sign him to a longer term deal would there not be a market for him after next season? I know lots of times GMs are hot and heavy during July then calm down but if you sign Kassian to a 3-4 year deal with no trade protection youd have to think theres some value in moving him after year 2 if internal replacements start to pop up?

How did that work for Lucic, Ladd, Neal, Brown etc? Jamie Benn’s contract doesn’t exactly look great.

For big men, the early thirties cliff tends to be real.

meanashell11 November 15, 2019 - 10:34 am

PinkSocks:
Just popping in to say that Altitude TV and the Avalanche can get fuck themselves for their shitty dispute over money causing all Avs games to be blacked out for us NHL.TV users.The biggest ripoff would be an Avs, fan not in Colorado, but in the US.It is literally impossible to watch any of their games because if NHL.TV pings your IP from a known VPN they revoke your subscription.I’m pissed I missed Kassian leveling the 3rd best player in the world, McDavid’s 6 point and Drai’s 5 assist night, I can only imagine what Avs fans feel.

I watched the game here in Connecticut??

godot10 November 15, 2019 - 10:28 am

Andy Dufresne: For the record, nobody WANTS 5 years. I assume the poster would conceed 5 years if he had to.

I dont want 4 years…..

I’d be happiest at 2 years. But 3 years seems likely. Otherwise you probably risk losing him.

You are attributing a comment to me in error. I said five years was far too many. I did NOT propose 5 x $3 million.

Profit November 15, 2019 - 10:26 am

Couple comments in the afterglow of last night:

– Listened to IceCap on SiriusXM NHL radio last night after, and the guys there just RAVED over McDavid and Draisaitl. Said it was the best game, the most exciting and marvelled at how dominant McDavid was. Both of them said they thought McDavid would catch Drai for the scoring lead (which I am not sure I agree with). The eastern bias of the NHL has fully been removed with these two, and the Oilers are probably seen as more legit than us Oilers fans actually think they are around the league.

– I read the Spector Sportsnet.ca article this morning and Kassian’s comments stood out for me:

“There’s not a day I take it for granted,” said the right winger on hockey’s most dynamic line. “You don’t think about it much right now, but when you sit back, I’m going to be watching them for many years when I’m done playing. It’s pretty special. Every day.”

If there is anyone who may take a hometown discount to continue with the Oilers it is probably Kassian. I would be a fan of locking him up for mid-term but only if we could score a discount. If he wants to get paid, then a short-term deal is the play imo.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 10:26 am

Dr. Taboggan:
Signing Kassian for more than 2 years seems very risky. I love the player but age and quality of teammates matter a lot. The Oilers have to be extremely careful with the cap. I do not think they can afford Kassian if he wants more than 3M x 2.

Im with ya. Id consider 2x3m a Christmas Gift to the fan base / franchise.

But realistically, No way you replace him, his production, and everything else he brings for 3m a year.

Not gonna happen.

I hope 3×3 is doable.

As someone else just posted, GM love this player type, and with good reason.

Kassian is writing his own cheque here. Barring something unforseen, ulimately Kass will be deciding where he wants to play.

But hes a smart guy. He knows where his bread is buttered, and I think he likes it here. And Kennys a smart guy too. I can see this ending well.

PennersPancakes November 15, 2019 - 10:25 am

If other GMs love Kassian enough to sign him to a longer term deal would there not be a market for him after next season? I know lots of times GMs are hot and heavy during July then calm down but if you sign Kassian to a 3-4 year deal with no trade protection youd have to think theres some value in moving him after year 2 if internal replacements start to pop up?

Reja November 15, 2019 - 10:19 am

I know

giddy:
Draisaitl being nearly 2.00 ppg after 21 games is nothing short of incredible. When was the last time a player put up those kind of numbers over a 20 some game stretch?

I know I’m not the only one that noticed last night how big and wide Leon’s hockey stick is, especially on the Kassian goal.

GMB3 November 15, 2019 - 10:19 am

Andy Dufresne: Honest question. You cant see the difference between Kassian and Lucic and Little Kailer?

Many different ways to skin a cat… KY is dogged on the forecheck and great at creating turnovers and had great underlying numbers with McDavid in the past. Obviously they didn’t turn to goals but it’s worth a look at 900K if Kassian wants more than 3.5 mill and 2-3 years. I’d love to keep Kass but his next contract may be untenable with our cap situation.

To your credit though I see Kassian having more longevity than Lucic because he is a far better skater.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 10:18 am

JimmyV1965: Ferland got $3.5 x 4 and he didn’t piss a drop in the second half or playoffs last year. If Kassian continues this production, he will get paid. GMs fall in love with this player type.

🙂 I must be a GM.

Love Love Love this guy.

Bag of Pucks November 15, 2019 - 10:18 am

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Bohologo,

– Thanks man!I was hoping/anticipating advice for my Marathon ambition

– I live in Toronto, will run some 5K’s/10K’s in spring to get ready for NYC Marathon in Oct 2020

– Way back I ran Cross-Country in High School at provincials, so I have some idea of what I’m getting into

– Where do you run, what marathons?Plus this new running stroller: two birds with one stone…

– Everyone says key is the Sunday run as the foundation piece.I’ve got lots of work to do, but my buddy who did it, he really did stoke something: the challenge and fire is there

Spent two days in a hotel room with a stripper once. Only stopped to nap, eat and hydrate. Closest I’ve been to a marathon.

I recommend good hygiene and lots of stretching.

Good Gord, that women’s body was a wonderland.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve November 15, 2019 - 10:17 am

Signing Kassian for more than 2 years seems very risky. I love the player but age and quality of teammates matter a lot. The Oilers have to be extremely careful with the cap. I do not think they can afford Kassian if he wants more than 3M x 2.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 10:17 am

godot10: Here is a number that would make me happy – 3m x 5 years.

For the record, nobody WANTS 5 years. I assume the poster would conceed 5 years if he had to.

I dont want 4 years…..

I’d be happiest at 2 years. But 3 years seems likely. Otherwise you probably risk losing him.

JimmyV1965 November 15, 2019 - 10:16 am

Bank Shot: I wouldn’t give Kassian more than 3 years.

Is any other team going to run out and offer him a great contract based on his performance this year?

Didn’t work for Maroon.

Ferland got $3.5 x 4 and he didn’t piss a drop in the second half or playoffs last year. If Kassian continues this production, he will get paid. GMs fall in love with this player type.

LadiesloveSmid November 15, 2019 - 10:14 am

Andy Dufresne: Honest question. You cant see the difference between Kassian and Lucic and Little Kailer?

I think a role can be played by players of many styles. Kailer is a puck retriever. Kailer has the skill to play in a top 6.

LadiesloveSmid November 15, 2019 - 10:12 am

My point is there can be heavy drop off in power forwards games once they hit their 30s.

Kassian averaged 23P/season the 3 years before this. Do we think he turned a corner at 28? If they give him $3-4M, we’re talking about dumping him like we do Russell.

godot10 November 15, 2019 - 10:09 am

who: Very good article by Willis on this subject. I think the decision on Nurse next summer will be Hollands toughest call as GM to date. I honestly don’t know what I would do.Probably comes down to his contract demands.
Lets say he signs for 6 or more years at7 million. Do you keep him?

Pros
Established NHL top 4 dman
Can play big minutes and has the physical skills to compete against 1st line NHL forwards.
Brings a physical presence and will fight to defend teammates
Member of the inner sanctum core.

Cons
Great skater but doesn’t seem to have high end vision or offensive instincts
Think of what that 7 million in cap space would allow Holland to do next summer. Taylor Hall, anyone?

I think Holland still sees this as an evaluation year so I doubt he makes a decision until summer. One complicating factor is that he may not see enough of Jones this year to make an informed decision. If our dmen stay healthy there is really no room for him right now. This will also affect his trade value.
The conservative approach would be to sign Nurse and trade Jones for a forward prospect.
The home run swing is to trade Nurse and hope Jones is ready.

Jones isn’t competing for Nurse’s spot. The Oilers don’t have another D remotely close to competing for Nurse’s spot. An NHL team needs at least one big physical defender. Nurse covers that plus had other positive attributes…can play forever and is uber mobile, things which your big physical defender are not.

Broberg ultimately is the threat to Nurse or to Klefbom. But there is nobody else in the short term.

Klefbom and Nurse are critical to the Oilers short and medium term future.

godot10 November 15, 2019 - 10:04 am

Andy Dufresne:
Under the category of “Im laughing with you not at you”

Early last spring it was: …We should shop Kassian….the guy wants out.

Late last spring it was: Its only 20 games…anyone could that with COnnor and Leon

Early this season it was: surly James Neal will eventually earn a spot on the top line

One month ago it was: …..I wouldnt give him more than 2 x 3m

Now its ……I wouldnt go more than 3 years….I mean who else would?…..

By Christmas its going to be: ….Can we even afford this guy???
.
.
.

~Cause you know…..we’re loaded with top six talent…and Power Forwards who can skate, score and think the game at an elite level are a dime a dozen….AMARIGHT!?!? ~

#FeelingFeistyToday

Kassian isn’t on the critical path. If he wants to be paid for a long time, you do what Belichek does, you let him walk.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 10:04 am

defmn: I’m not sure he did tip it. It looked to me like it hit the stick of the Avs defender standing right in front of Chiasson. It definitely changed direction but I don’t think it got to Chiasson.

Agree to Disagree…But Fair Enough……Ill amend the paragraph to read:

Alex Chaisson is the 6th best forward on this roster as things stand. NOT EVEN COUNTING the goal he tipped in last night, Chaser has 5 points in limited playing time much of it bottom 6 minutes. That equals the combined points of Khaira, Granlund, Sheahan, Yurco and Cave.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 10:00 am

LadiesloveSmid:
Kassian will be 29 this summer.

The summer after Lucic turned 29 he dropped from 50P to 34P then to 20P. He might score 12 this year.

29 & 97 are having historic seasons. Don’t overpay their shotgun rider. That might be Yamamoto for 900K next year.

Honest question. You cant see the difference between Kassian and Lucic and Little Kailer?

who November 15, 2019 - 9:57 am

LadiesloveSmid:
Kassian will be 29 this summer.

The summer after Lucic turned 29 he dropped from 50P to 34P then to 20P. He might score 12 this year.

29 & 97 are having historic seasons. Don’t overpay their shotgun rider. That might be Yamamoto for 900K next year.

You can’t compare Kassian to Lucic. Kassian can skate, Lucic never could.
Lucic was already a bad player during his last 50 point season. The game had already passed him by.

norm_klassen November 15, 2019 - 9:56 am

Kassian at 4 mil is a 1.9 million raise I would give him 4*3 if he plays all year on the big line and gets 50 points!

defmn November 15, 2019 - 9:56 am

Andy Dufresne:
“Alex Chiasson had one shot on goal and it looked like he tipped a McDavid power-play shot but he didn’t get credit for it.”

He did tip it. Shows you one of the reasons his teamates and coaches like him alot. Charachter.

The guys fighting for the the right to play on the 2nd line. All the guys he’s competing with would give thier left nut to get on the scoreboard. Chaser gives his up for the team / a team mate.

Alex Chaisson is the 6th best forward on this roster as things stand. Give him his goal from last night and he has 6 points in limited playing time much of it bottom 6 minutes. Thats more points than Khaira, Granlund, Sheahan, Yurco and Cave combined!

I’m not sure he did tip it. It looked to me like it hit the stick of the Avs defender standing right in front of Chiasson. It definitely changed direction but I don’t think it got to Chiasson.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo! November 15, 2019 - 9:54 am

OriginalPouzar,

Wrote about that yesterday. Add another game to this analysis but if Tipp can keep those numbers down the rest period is coming.

SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!:
A couple of quick things that I believe are important.

1) The Detroit game on Oct. 29 was a milestone marker and no its not because the Oilers were their good ole slum-busting selves that night, not it was a turning point for another reason. It was the last game that both McDavid and Draisaitl together played more than 20 min at EV. Now for most teams that is a “no duh” sort of thing but considering how hard Tippett road those ponies this is a big step back. Leon hit the 20 minute mark against Arizona a week later but for McDavid its been over two weeks with his ES minutes pulled down to almost normal numbers.

2) Now this is good for McD who’s clearly getting back up to speed but the story isn’t the same for Drai who logged about 90 seconds a game on PK. BUUUUUUT since the Arizona game Leon hasn’t cracked the 60 sec mark in any single game either.

3) Building on that its actually been four games in a row now (since St. Louis) that both McD and Drai have seen their total TOI drop under 20min a game (and the St. Louis game was very heavy on PP minutes, their ES TOI for that game were 17:03 and 17:45 respectively).

4) I cannot overstate the importance of this four game stretch. You have to go back to November 2017 to find a four game stretch where Leon played less than 20min a game and for McD its January 2018. Over two years of running these guys absolutely ragged, man!

Now of course we know that it behooved Tippett to get those numbers down from the sky high levels we saw at the beginning of the year but to have it happening at this exact time may make it even more critical, especially if they can keep it up for the two home games AND the road trip.

Why do I say that?

Well because after the upcoming road trip (actually in the middle of it) the Oilers enter a two week window where they get a significant break from the crazy paced schedule they have had until now. Note I am not saying anything here about strength of schedule (which gets tougher) but merely pace, which saw them playing a game every second day since well the beginning of the year.

From the Arizona game they have a ten day stretch where its game – two days off – game – two days off – game -two days off. The travel in between those is Arizona – Colorado – Vancouver – Edmonton and then home until Dec 11 (a four game stint against beatable competition).

If Tippett can keep those numbers down for those two next week they’ll be entering a moderate rest period for the first time this year without having ridden McD and Drai like Secretariat and Seattle Slew. The break will likely leave at least 3 full practice days to tweak things (with Larsson back) and two full rest days let everyone heal bumps and bruises. Combine that with ten days sleeping at home in your own bed playing against beatable competition and perhaps just maybe our little team could make some hay (and emerge rested!) to deal with the tough road that starts on Dec 14 and runs through the 23rd.

PennersPancakes November 15, 2019 - 9:53 am

LadiesloveSmid:
Kassian will be 29 this summer.

The summer after Lucic turned 29 he dropped from 50P to 34P then to 20P. He might score 12 this year.

29 & 97 are having historic seasons. Don’t overpay their shotgun rider. That might be Yamamoto for 900K next year.

Agree not on wanting to over pay the third best player on a line and do have concerns about a power forward BUT

Lucic was never a strong skater even in his prime lets be real, maybe decent straight line speed but not one of his strengths while Kassian has always been a plus skater.

Lucic does have a degenerative spinal disease, Kassian does not.

Lucic has played a lot more games by the same age. Lucic for better or worse has rarely missed any games except for 2 seasons while Kassian has been out for multiple issues without being “injury prone”. Hell Lucic has played 114 playoff games to Kassian’s 21.

I guess this is a long winded way of saying I wouldnt expect the same drop off on Kassian as with Lucic. Less miles, lack of a chronic illness, always been a more talented skater.

Brantford Boy November 15, 2019 - 9:52 am

OriginalPouzar,

Agreed… so we agree on 3x3M then? 🙂

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 9:52 am

OriginalPouzar:
Zack Kassian set the tone of that game early – without Zack’s early play, the result may not have been the same. What a quarter of the season Zack is having.

BOOM!

I love you man!!!

I mean…you know…in an an internet blog …hockey fan….bro kinda way.

#ManCrush

We all bitch and whine when the team comes out flat….Kassian comes out of the gate hard and it ABSOLUTELY sets the tone for the game.

#PlayoffAttitudeInGame21

#Leadership

Kassian pulled a Bill Belichick …Do what you can to take away (or slow down) the oppenents best weapon.

Durag November 15, 2019 - 9:49 am

OriginalPouzar,

Klefbom is phenomenal at keeping the puck in the zone on the PP. I don’t know if there’s a way to quantify it, but by eye I’ve seen a lot of clearing attempts or wobbly passes I was sure were going to get out, only to have Oscar maintain the zone. Those 2nd assists are not undeserved.

godot10 November 15, 2019 - 9:49 am

TheGreatBigMac:
Kassian is on track for 58 points and seems to work with McD and Drai.If things continue in this fashion, would you sign him to continue in that role and what kind of contract.It’s a career year playing with two of the best players in the league, so he shouldn’t get full value.

Here is a number that would make me happy – 3m x 5 years.

Far too many years there.

who November 15, 2019 - 9:48 am

PinkSocks: Stock market 101 doesn’t say to sell one ofyour best stocks when in its prime and delivering tremendous dividends.

Trading Nurse and replacing him with Jones is a downgrade.The goal is to keep improving while not eroding depth. As long and Nurse’s long term contract AAV starts with a “6” then he is a long term keeper.He likes Edmonton, has previously stated he wants to stay and play in Edmonton, he is a bonafide top 4 D with wheels.

Very good article by Willis on this subject. I think the decision on Nurse next summer will be Hollands toughest call as GM to date. I honestly don’t know what I would do. Probably comes down to his contract demands.
Lets say he signs for 6 or more years at 7 million. Do you keep him?

Pros
Established NHL top 4 dman
Can play big minutes and has the physical skills to compete against 1st line NHL forwards.
Brings a physical presence and will fight to defend teammates
Member of the inner sanctum core.

Cons
Great skater but doesn’t seem to have high end vision or offensive instincts
Think of what that 7 million in cap space would allow Holland to do next summer. Taylor Hall, anyone?

I think Holland still sees this as an evaluation year so I doubt he makes a decision until summer. One complicating factor is that he may not see enough of Jones this year to make an informed decision. If our dmen stay healthy there is really no room for him right now. This will also affect his trade value.
The conservative approach would be to sign Nurse and trade Jones for a forward prospect.
The home run swing is to trade Nurse and hope Jones is ready.

Durag November 15, 2019 - 9:47 am

LadiesloveSmid,

I don’t think you can draw a straight line comparison between Lucic and Kassian. Lucic is an outmoded player model and we had a dinosaur GM who couldn’t see that. Kassian’s greatest asset is his speed and I don’t see that deserting him in his early 30s.

godot10 November 15, 2019 - 9:46 am

12 percent body fat:
end of the year move nurse,so much depth that can replace him.Better puck movers and defensively. Also more offensive potential.

Sell High, and dont overpay on a contract.Its stock market 101.

Petry all over again. Trading them just as they enter their prime and peak years is unwise. Those who do not learn from history….

It was a mistake not to go long term two years ago.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 9:45 am

Oscar Klefbom is 14th in the NHL in 5 on 4 P/60.

Yes, I’d be excited to see Bear on the PP like many other but, at the same time, this is the top PP in the league and right now Klefbom is not riding coattails, he is contributing.

Bear has indeed “earned” some more PP time but, at the same time, given he’s never played more than 55 games as a pro, is getting used to the grind of the NHL and its schedule, is vastly important at 5 on 5 and is playing legit minutes on the PK, I see no reason to add minutes, even “easier” PP minutes, to his total.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 9:44 am

Under the category of “Im laughing with you not at you”

Early last spring it was: …We should shop Kassian….the guy wants out.

Late last spring it was: Its only 20 games…anyone could that with COnnor and Leon

Early this season it was: surly James Neal will eventually earn a spot on the top line

One month ago it was: …..I wouldnt give him more than 2 x 3m

Now its …… I wouldnt go more than 3 years….I mean who else would?…..

By Christmas its going to be: ….Can we even afford this guy???
.
.~Cause you know…..we’re loaded with top six talent…and Power Forwards who can skate, score and think the game at an elite level are a dime a dozen….AMARIGHT!?!? ~

#FeelingFeistyToday

Hold the presses. Inks not even dry on this post and we have a new benchmark

“Here is a number that would make me happy – 3m x 5 years.”

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 9:40 am

Zack Kassian set the tone of that game early – without Zack’s early play, the result may not have been the same. What a quarter of the season Zack is having.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 9:40 am

GM Ken Holland had a shoe-string budget to fill out the bottom of the roster and he had a primary goal of cutting down goals against and improving the PK. The bottom of the roster players are not pissing any drops offensively, however, they are helping in the GA category and are huge on the PK and those are two primary factors in the high end first quarter of the season.

We can discuss (argue) about the signing of guys like Chiasson and Granlund but, at the end of the day, the aggregate of Holland’s moves have worked in his two primary ares and they are leading to high end results in the standings.

Add in James Neal (for Milan Lucic) and Mike Smith and Holland get a solid A.

LadiesloveSmid November 15, 2019 - 9:39 am

Kassian will be 29 this summer.

The summer after Lucic turned 29 he dropped from 50P to 34P then to 20P. He might score 12 this year.

29 & 97 are having historic seasons. Don’t overpay their shotgun rider. That might be Yamamoto for 900K next year.

Durag November 15, 2019 - 9:38 am

Do we think that Kassian might have some loyalty to the organization that took a chance on him and resurrected his career? Not to mention lets him ride shotgun with the best 2 players in the league. Does he take the fabled hometown discount? 4 years, $10M?

I am not at all impugning the patient approach, but sometimes I can’t help but think that Tyler Benson would look awfully good on that 2nd line.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 9:36 am

OriginalPouzar: they may not be able to sustain top of the conference play and win the division

Or they might.

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 9:36 am

The last four games against have a blowout loss and three blowout wins by 4 goals.

Neither McDavid nor Drai have played over 20 minutes in any of those last 4 games.

This is real and its spectacular.

LadiesloveSmid November 15, 2019 - 9:35 am

I think Fiala or Toffoli, Fiala specifically, would be great fits. Play drivers on a team that doesn’t have one beyond the top 3 Fs

Bank Shot November 15, 2019 - 9:35 am

I found it pretty funny looking at last night’s boxscore. Oilers scored six goals and only six players on the team recorded points. I wonder if that’s some kind of record? hah

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 9:34 am

Bank Shot: I wouldn’t give Kassian more than 3 years.

Is any other team going to run out and offer him a great contract based on his performance this year?

Didn’t work for Maroon.

No disrepect. Kassian and Maroon are not in the same category of player. Not even close.

Love Patty, but Maroon is much slower, lower Hockey IQ. MUCH.

#MuchSlowerMuchLower

OriginalPouzar November 15, 2019 - 9:34 am

I honestly don’t care about the fact the Colorado had some major injuries and had their third string goalie playing – that’s the type of game Oilers teams have lost in the past but not this year – capitalizing on their opportunities. Its not like it was a gimme in any event – the Avs had won three in a row scoring 17 goals in those three games, including a blow out of Nashville and that third string goalie was coming off a 40 save shut out.

We are past the quarter mark of the season – its no longer “early”. This team is tied for first in the conference and is first in the division with a cushion. Without injury, the bottom is not falling out. No, they may not be able to sustain top of the conference play and win the division but the bottom, nope, its not falling out.

This is now real.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 9:32 am

PinkSocks: Concussion protocol is simply a mirage for the NHL to avoid higher payouts to players after their careers are over.“See, we did concussion protocols!”

They (concussion protocols) aren’t real, they are to avoid losing money.They exist, but they mean nothing.

I understand why you’re saying this….but its simply not true. Is it in part a mechanism to avoid legal liability yes /probably. Is it a legitimate health protocol. Yes it is.

Bank Shot November 15, 2019 - 9:32 am

JimmyV1965: The Kassian contract will be a huge challenge for the GM.I think you’re in the ballpark with $3 x 5. I’m not super comfortable with 5 years, but it’s probably the only way to get the cap at $3 mill.It’s absolutely essential that he doesn’t get NMC or NTC that severely limit the team’s ability to trade him. A partial NTC would be okay I guess. And what about the expansion draft? I could see Seattle jumping at Kassian.

I wouldn’t give Kassian more than 3 years.

Is any other team going to run out and offer him a great contract based on his performance this year?

Didn’t work for Maroon.

PinkSocks November 15, 2019 - 9:31 am

Andy Dufresne:
“Alex Chiasson had one shot on goal and it looked like he tipped a McDavid power-play shot but he didn’t get credit for it.”

He did tip it. Shows you one of the reasons his teamates and coaches like him alot. Charachter.

The guys fighting for the the right to play on the 2nd line. All those other guys would give thier left nut to get on the scoreboard. Chaser gives his up for the team / a team mate.

Alex Chaisson is the 6th best forward on this roster as things stand. Give him his goal from last night and he has 6 points in limited playing time much of it bottom 6 minutes. Thats more points than Khaira, Granlund, Sheahan, Yurco and Cave combined!

If the hockey gods are true and fair, Chiasson will have one bounce off his ass and in within the next couple of games.

godot10 November 15, 2019 - 9:31 am

Dino:
It’s quite shocking to see the player stats when they’re posted as the lineup. Makes you realize how thin the offence is spread throughout the lineup.

Heard Fiala and Donato are available from Minnesota as well as Toffoli from LA. There are some trades to be made.

Toffoli is just an expensive version of Neal, Gagner, and Chiasson. How many of those guys do you need?

Two of the smarter organizations dumped Fiala and Donato and an incompetent GM, who has now been fired. Poile snooked his long time sidekick in one of those deals. I don’t think Kenny Holland is going to pull a Fenton.

Plus, the Oilers need a 3rd line centre, not one-dimensional wingers.

Bank Shot November 15, 2019 - 9:29 am

giddy:
Draisaitl being nearly 2.00 ppg after 21 games is nothing short of incredible. When was the last time a player put up those kind of numbers over a 20 some game stretch?

I guess last year Kucherov had a stretch where he scored 51 points in 23 games and Rantanen put up 56 in 33.

I’ll take a Kucherov like point total for Draisaitl at season’s end. 🙂

JimmyV1965 November 15, 2019 - 9:29 am

TheGreatBigMac:
Kassian is on track for 58 points and seems to work with McD and Drai.If things continue in this fashion, would you sign him to continue in that role and what kind of contract.It’s a career year playing with two of the best players in the league, so he shouldn’t get full value.

Here is a number that would make me happy – 3m x 5 years.

The Kassian contract will be a huge challenge for the GM. I think you’re in the ballpark with $3 x 5. I’m not super comfortable with 5 years, but it’s probably the only way to get the cap at $3 mill. It’s absolutely essential that he doesn’t get NMC or NTC that severely limit the team’s ability to trade him. A partial NTC would be okay I guess. And what about the expansion draft? I could see Seattle jumping at Kassian.

PinkSocks November 15, 2019 - 9:29 am

texmex: I’m in Texas, and had no problem with the feed through the NHL TV app on Apple TV. I watched the sportsnet feed, didn’t try the Avs feed.

I was in Idaho last night. I wonder if Apple TV avoids it since Russ did this as well. I either have it fed through a laptop to a TV or on my iPad; both instances using the Oilers’ feed, both instances blocked from viewing due to Denver’s blackout restrictions.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 9:28 am

“Alex Chiasson had one shot on goal and it looked like he tipped a McDavid power-play shot but he didn’t get credit for it.”

He did tip it. Shows you one of the reasons his teamates and coaches like him alot. Charachter.

The guys fighting for the the right to play on the 2nd line. All the guys he’s competing with would give thier left nut to get on the scoreboard. Chaser gives his up for the team / a team mate.

Alex Chaisson is the 6th best forward on this roster as things stand. Give him his goal from last night and he has 6 points in limited playing time much of it bottom 6 minutes. Thats more points than Khaira, Granlund, Sheahan, Yurco and Cave combined!

PinkSocks November 15, 2019 - 9:27 am

flea:
I was suprised MacKinnon didn’t have to go into concussion protocol after that hit.He was shaking his head when he got up.

If the NHL takes concussions seriously, Mackinnon should be in the dark room for 10 min after that hit.

Great game Oilers!

Concussion protocol is simply a mirage for the NHL to avoid higher payouts to players after their careers are over. “See, we did concussion protocols!”

They (concussion protocols) aren’t real, they are to avoid losing money. They exist, but they mean nothing.

texmex November 15, 2019 - 9:27 am

PinkSocks: I’m in the US as well.I watch 79 Oilers games per year through NHL.TV and have for the last 15 or so years.The last 3 years has been this pissing contest with Altitude TV and their broadcasting of NHL and NBA games.I’m not sure how you got lucky avoiding the blackout.Perhaps if you are on the East Coast you don’t get it.I shuttle back and forth between Idaho and Texas so I’m still in the general region of Denver.

I VPN’d with success with a Toronto based VPN location last season for an Oil/Avs game, but afterwards read that the NHL can and will revoke subscriptions if a known VPN server is logged in avoiding any blackouts.Not worth it for the 3 games per year to lose the other 79, but frustrating as hell nonetheless.

I’m in Texas, and had no problem with the feed through the NHL TV app on Apple TV. I watched the sportsnet feed, didn’t try the Avs feed.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 9:26 am

JJS:
McKinnon loves to do a delay turn inside the blue line

It looked like Kassian had the book on him and anticipated it perfectly

Later in the game, I observed McKinnon changing his entries and often pulling up outside our blue line

That hit had a direct affect on the rest of the game IMO

Young Willis agrees in a 3 tweet thread:


@JonathanWillis
Interesting tidbit from the Avs broadcast last night: they called the Kassian hit on MacKinnon a “scouting report hit” because MacKinnon’s move off the zone entry is one he uses a lot.
When you watch Kassian’s approach it almost looks like he expected it to play out like that.

The more I watch the play the more I’m convinced they’re right. That’s a 3-on-2 and Kassian is the first forward back, but he doesn’t rush to take a man, he just shadows MacKinnon and winds up in great position for the hit when he stops up.

Peter McNab of Altitude Sports made the observation, and I’ll confess I would have missed that aspect of it entirely if he hadn’t. I enjoyed his commentary a good deal last night.

PinkSocks November 15, 2019 - 9:25 am

12 percent body fat:
end of the year move nurse,so much depth that can replace him.Better puck movers and defensively. Also more offensive potential.

Sell High, and dont overpay on a contract.Its stock market 101.

Stock market 101 doesn’t say to sell one of your best stocks when in its prime and delivering tremendous dividends.

Trading Nurse and replacing him with Jones is a downgrade. The goal is to keep improving while not eroding depth. As long and Nurse’s long term contract AAV starts with a “6” then he is a long term keeper. He likes Edmonton, has previously stated he wants to stay and play in Edmonton, he is a bonafide top 4 D with wheels.

Professor Q November 15, 2019 - 9:22 am

I can’t even run 1 km consistently. I try to do the 100 km for the Movember Move but my intervals between Run-Jog-Rest Walk are fairly long (or short? Hopefully you know what I mean). Also tough to run on the ice and snow (I’ve had a few bad tumbles).

Props to those doing marathons and Iron Man and Tough Mudder etc. events. Ridiculous.

Maybe one day, I guess?

jake70 November 15, 2019 - 9:22 am

You know when people yell (either at game or home to their TV) SHOOT!!! – well that’s what they are doing. It’s fantastic. Nuge ripping lasers like it’s the target thingy at all-star skills.

JJS November 15, 2019 - 9:21 am

McKinnon loves to do a delay turn inside the blue line

It looked like Kassian had the book on him and anticipated it perfectly

Later in the game, I observed McKinnon changing his entries and often pulling up outside our blue line

That hit had a direct affect on the rest of the game IMO

who November 15, 2019 - 9:20 am

Not sure what to think about this team right now. But the points are in the bank.
At the start of the year I figured if things broke right they would be fighting for the last playoff spot.
Well things have certainly broke right.
It appears we have a solid goaltending tandem. Koskinen has been very good and Smith has been average to spectacular, depending on the night.
It appears that Ethan Bear is a quality NHL dman. I haven’t seen anything from him in 21 games that makes me doubt his ability.
It appears the PK issues have been fixed. In particular, the cross seam pass through the kill zone is now a rare event.
Those were 3 big question marks heading into the season. They are now big positives heading forward.
A note of caution. We have had 3 blowout wins in the last 4 games. The last 2 were against teams severely depleted by injury. I’m not sure the Oilers actually outplayed Colorado last night. They just rode McDavid and a red hot powerplay to an easy win.
Nevertheless, they are winning the games they should and at this point, it’s hard not to see them making the playoffs. Still not ready to call them a cup contender though.

PinkSocks November 15, 2019 - 9:20 am

russ99:
PinkSocks,

Really?

I watched the Oilers feed last night on NHL.TV on my Apple TV with no trouble.

I’m in the US so is it just in Canada?

I’m in the US as well. I watch 79 Oilers games per year through NHL.TV and have for the last 15 or so years. The last 3 years has been this pissing contest with Altitude TV and their broadcasting of NHL and NBA games. I’m not sure how you got lucky avoiding the blackout. Perhaps if you are on the East Coast you don’t get it. I shuttle back and forth between Idaho and Texas so I’m still in the general region of Denver.

I VPN’d with success with a Toronto based VPN location last season for an Oil/Avs game, but afterwards read that the NHL can and will revoke subscriptions if a known VPN server is logged in avoiding any blackouts. Not worth it for the 3 games per year to lose the other 79, but frustrating as hell nonetheless.

flea November 15, 2019 - 9:20 am

I was suprised MacKinnon didn’t have to go into concussion protocol after that hit.He was shaking his head when he got up.

If the NHL takes concussions seriously, Mackinnon should be in the dark room for 10 min after that hit.

Great game Oilers!

Ice Sage November 15, 2019 - 9:18 am

Kinger_Oil.redux:
Bohologo,

– Thanks man!I was hoping/anticipating advice for my Marathon ambition

– I live in Toronto, will run some 5K’s/10K’s in spring to get ready for NYC Marathon in Oct 2020

– Way back I ran Cross-Country in High School at provincials, so I have some idea of what I’m getting into

– Where do you run, what marathons?Plus this new running stroller: two birds with one stone…

– Everyone says key is the Sunday run as the foundation piece.I’ve got lots of work to do, but my buddy who did it, he really did stoke something: the challenge and fire is there

I’m a marathon vet also, flirted with 3 hours and enjoyed Boston a decade ago.
Great periodization advice from boho and it’s true about the 2 ‘halves’ which can be mitigated with pacing and hydration / nutrition (not easy in the excitement and competitiveness of the day)
You have a year and can do it. If you ran x-country in high school, the neuro-adaptation and mental toughness are there. If, like I was, you are carrying a few middle-aged pounds, you will get faster as you train, merely by getting lighter – it’s really empowering!
If you look at your high school times, you can extrapolate a reasonable goal for your marathon time. (eg. sub 20 min 5k should easily get you in the 3:30 range for first marathon) Of course you will also run some prep races – a half marathon is a must, about 6 weeks prior.
Cross train, carbo load, rest up, moderate indulgences – all will tip the scales in your favor.
Also, if you get an overuse strain, don’t ignore it! Max the rest and rehab or you’ll be sunk.
NYC is a ‘tougher’ marathon with lots of elevation but what a way to see the town!
Congrats.

PinkSocks November 15, 2019 - 9:17 am

Brantford Boy:
LT: “I’d make a comment about all the credit he got for the early hit (‘set the tone’!) but I like him so will refrain from being a crusty old bastard.”

I was really hoping for Kassian to get the Gordie Howe hat trick, but then quickly realized it wouldn’t be broadcast on Coach’s Corner, and you know it would, le sigh… I do think the Drew was right on the Masterton though… and this is why I asked about the 3x3M contract the other day… the one thing about Zack, I doubt his wheels get slow in those 3 years.

I just hope Kassian has the smarts when he can and can’t take those runs… if he does that against Gaudreau in the playoffs that same hit won’t be smart.We’ll have Lucic running our guys for the 4 games before the ‘sweep’…

As for the rest of the game, results, and overall feelings of “our team” this morning… WOW!

If the Oilers play the Flames in the playoffs, Kassian will turn into playoff Kassian and that hit on Gaudreau will make little Johnny shit his pants and forget how to play hockey in the postseason…. again.

And Lucic can’t take runs at guys anymore, he can’t keep up, so I’m not too worried about Lucic. The more he is on the ice the better for the Oilers.

russ99 November 15, 2019 - 9:13 am

PinkSocks,

Really?

I watched the Oilers feed last night on NHL.TV on my Apple TV with no trouble.

I’m in the US so is it just in Canada?

John Chambers November 15, 2019 - 9:12 am

Connor McDavid’s PP points / 60?

12.86!

Jaw hits floor

TheGreatBigMac November 15, 2019 - 9:12 am

Kassian is on track for 58 points and seems to work with McD and Drai. If things continue in this fashion, would you sign him to continue in that role and what kind of contract. It’s a career year playing with two of the best players in the league, so he shouldn’t get full value.

Here is a number that would make me happy – 3m x 5 years.

Professor Q November 15, 2019 - 9:08 am

Side: “Auston Matthews would have IF….”

Well, his fault for getting caught with his pants down.

PinkSocks November 15, 2019 - 9:07 am

Just popping in to say that Altitude TV and the Avalanche can get fuck themselves for their shitty dispute over money causing all Avs games to be blacked out for us NHL.TV users. The biggest ripoff would be an Avs, fan not in Colorado, but in the US. It is literally impossible to watch any of their games because if NHL.TV pings your IP from a known VPN they revoke your subscription. I’m pissed I missed Kassian leveling the 3rd best player in the world, McDavid’s 6 point and Drai’s 5 assist night, I can only imagine what Avs fans feel.

Andy Dufresne November 15, 2019 - 9:06 am

“Leon Draisaitl … has to be a strong candidate for the Hart based on the first 21 games. Amazing.”

Thank You. The best two hockey players on the planet BAR NONE.

“Zack Kassian ran over Nathan MacKinnon in the game’s opening seconds and then got into a fight. Scored a goal at five-on-five and skated miles. I’d make a comment about all the credit he got for the early hit (‘set the tone’!) but I like him so will refrain from being a crusty old bastard.”

Thank You. 🙂 Did Mackinnon get even a single point last night? No. Anyone whose ever been rocked like that (where youre shaking your head to shake loose the cobwebs) knows what an effect that has. Kassian is loved by his team mates. Connor has praised his hockey sense and skill and the physicality he brings to his role on the top line, McDavids opinion counts No?

The top line in hockey is a trio.

As for violence in hockey, my personal policy is I dont hope for, cheer for, or applaud any type of injury or intent ro injure. I do however hope to hurt the oppostion with physical hits. The type of hits that take a player off his game or out of the game without injury, (meaning they are fit to play the next scheduled game.)

Kassians hit was a perfect hit. Its a skill as sure as skating and shooting are skills. It takes courage to play the game the way Kassian does. Even more impressive when its done within the rules. Bravo Zack.

#Masterton

Kinger_Oil.redux November 15, 2019 - 9:03 am

Bohologo,

– Thanks man! I was hoping/anticipating advice for my Marathon ambition

– I live in Toronto, will run some 5K’s/10K’s in spring to get ready for NYC Marathon in Oct 2020

– Way back I ran Cross-Country in High School at provincials, so I have some idea of what I’m getting into

– Where do you run, what marathons? Plus this new running stroller: two birds with one stone…

– Everyone says key is the Sunday run as the foundation piece. I’ve got lots of work to do, but my buddy who did it, he really did stoke something: the challenge and fire is there

GMB3 November 15, 2019 - 8:58 am

Adam Larsson has been on LTIR since game 1 of the season right? So the Oilers haven’t been accruing any cap space for a deadline acquisition?

GordieHoweHatTrick November 15, 2019 - 8:56 am

It is great to see these guys having fun playing hockey again.

12 percent body fat November 15, 2019 - 8:55 am

end of the year move nurse, so much depth that can replace him. Better puck movers and defensively. Also more offensive potential.

Sell High, and dont overpay on a contract. Its stock market 101.

Kinger_Oil.redux November 15, 2019 - 8:55 am

– Hi: this team is a “JAM” line away from being the Cup winner. This year. Deal with it.

– Kids: 1990, post Gretz/Coffey/Fuhr: Joe Murphy,Adam Graves and Gelinas, was the difference

– Don’t think for a second that the team and management and the league doesn’t know this…

Brantford Boy November 15, 2019 - 8:53 am

LT: “I’d make a comment about all the credit he got for the early hit (‘set the tone’!) but I like him so will refrain from being a crusty old bastard.”

I was really hoping for Kassian to get the Gordie Howe hat trick, but then quickly realized it wouldn’t be broadcast on Coach’s Corner, and you know it would, le sigh… I do think the Drew was right on the Masterton though… and this is why I asked about the 3x3M contract the other day… the one thing about Zack, I doubt his wheels get slow in those 3 years.

I just hope Kassian has the smarts when he can and can’t take those runs… if he does that against Gaudreau in the playoffs that same hit won’t be smart. We’ll have Lucic running our guys for the 4 games before the ‘sweep’…

As for the rest of the game, results, and overall feelings of “our team” this morning… WOW!

Ice Sage November 15, 2019 - 8:51 am

Mikeoes:
Damn this is fun being an Oilers fan these days!!!!! Glad Tippett gave Smith a chance to rebound, now both our goalies still have confidence moving forward (and the players have confidence in them – just as important)

Load management is a thing, goalies now being considered like starting pitchers or Kawai – I wonder, number guys, if having 2 ‘1a’ goalies is better than a 1 and a 2? Is it good cap management?

From a coaching perspective that starter uncertainty does help keep other teams off-kilter.
For anyone who doubts that teams target specific goalies weak spots, just re-watch the Anaheim game and see where the Oilers beat Gibson – 6 or 7 hole every time. Last night it was lateral movement and against the grain quick release vs rookies. That Weber kid looked like Koskie did last year.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 8:48 am

Interesting to see Tippett has backed off 97 and 29’s 5v5 TOI/gm by over 3 minutes in the last 6 games.

Although in the last 5 games they Lost by 3, Won by 4, Won by 4, Lost by 3, Won by 4, and its easier to back them off when the game is decided early.

5v5 TOI/gm first 15 games:

Connor McDavid 17.4
Leon Draisaitl 16.9
Zack Kassian 15.2
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 13.1
James Neal 12.8
Sam Gagner 12.7
Alex Chiasson 11.4
Jujhar Khaira 10.9
Patrick Russell 9.9
Riley Sheahan 9.4
Markus Granlund 9.4
Joakim Nygard 9.1
Josh Archibald 8.9
Gaetan Haas 8.4

5v5 TOI/gm last 6 games:

Connor McDavid 14.0
Leon Draisaitl 13.7
Zack Kassian 13.4
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 12.5
Sam Gagner 11.8
Alex Chiasson 11.5
James Neal 11.4
Average 12.6
Patrick Russell 11.2
Jujhar Khaira 10.9
Riley Sheahan 10.4
Joakim Nygard 10.0
Markus Granlund 9.9
Josh Archibald 9.6
Gaetan Haas 8.9

Difference:

Patrick Russell 1.3
Riley Sheahan 1.0
Joakim Nygard 0.9
Josh Archibald 0.6
Gaetan Haas 0.5
Markus Granlund 0.5
Alex Chiasson 0.1
Jujhar Khaira 0.0
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins -0.6
Sam Gagner -0.8
James Neal -1.4
Zack Kassian -1.8
Leon Draisaitl -3.2
Connor McDavid -3.4

Side November 15, 2019 - 8:46 am

giddy:
Draisaitl being nearly 2.00 ppg after 21 games is nothing short of incredible. When was the last time a player put up those kind of numbers over a 20 some game stretch?

“Auston Matthews would have IF….”

Dino November 15, 2019 - 8:45 am

It’s quite shocking to see the player stats when they’re posted as the lineup. Makes you realize how thin the offence is spread throughout the lineup.

Heard Fiala and Donato are available from Minnesota as well as Toffoli from LA. There are some trades to be made.

Woodguy v2.0 November 15, 2019 - 8:45 am

19/20
EDM Goal Share after 21 games (13-6-2)

Even strength (5v5,4v4,3v3)
McDavid On Ice 25-13 (66%)
McDavid Off Ice 19-26 (42%)
Net EV = +5

Sp. Teams (PP+SH For–PK+SH Against)
20-11
Net ST +9

Empty Net
2-5
Net EN = -3

SO & PS
1-1
SO & PS = Even

Net Goal Differential +11

Ice Sage November 15, 2019 - 8:44 am

Those two are great, Nuge is better each year, Neal has ‘progressed by regression’.
It’s Kassian, though, to my eye, that has leveled-up considerably – his physical play opens space and sows doubt. And he can cash. And he’ll get cash!

I am starting to believe, Gord help me

Side November 15, 2019 - 8:44 am

Thank you Craig MacTavish for drafting Leon and then bumbling the franchise into McDavid.

Durag November 15, 2019 - 8:43 am

We live in historic times

Mikeoes November 15, 2019 - 8:43 am

Damn this is fun being an Oilers fan these days!!!!! Glad Tippett gave Smith a chance to rebound, now both our goalies still have confidence moving forward (and the players have confidence in them – just as important)

LadiesloveSmid November 15, 2019 - 8:37 am

Just imagine their record if literally anyone else could score.

Dump Russell & find HELP

giddy November 15, 2019 - 8:37 am

Draisaitl being nearly 2.00 ppg after 21 games is nothing short of incredible. When was the last time a player put up those kind of numbers over a 20 some game stretch?

Comments are closed.