The McDavid Draisaitl Freeway

Remember that line from Casey Stengel I threw at you the other day? Last night was a win from the early shifts for Edmonton, a “laugher” for the home side. Today, Leon Draisaitl has 41 points, McDavid 37, and three more forwards are on pace for over 58 points. The team remains in first place and we are now past the ides of November. What will tomorrow bring? I don’t have a script and this doesn’t resemble anything on the shelves.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.

  • New Jonathan Willis: A shift-by-shift analysis of Caleb Jones in his Oilers season debut
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Sometimes it’s just unstoppable’: How McDavid and the Oilers’ power play dominated the Avalanche
  • New Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones and the crisis that’s looming in the Oilers’ middle distance
  • Jonathan Willis: Basically, yes, the Oilers should keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ‘forever’
  • Lowetide: Why the recall of NHL-ready Caleb Jones should benefit the Oilers in the long run
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Several drivers make the grade but Edmonton’s bus still has a few passengers
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanFrom 4 to 97, Oilers both new and old share the stories behind their jersey numbers
  • Jonathan Willis: Could a fall trade improve the fortunes of your NHL team in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: Analyzing Dave Tippett’s defensive usage and what the Oilers will do when Adam Larsson returns
  • Lowetide: What’s going on with the Bakersfield Condors?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shines, mad props for Leon Draisaitl and more to like as the Oilers beat the Devils
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What inexperienced defencemen like the Oilers’ Joel Persson must do to gain their coach’s confidence
  • Lowetide: Oilers are closer to having an effective second line than a year ago, but few have noticed
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The beauty of a good night’s sleep can be elusive for many NHL players
  • Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers were wise to gamble on Tomas Jurco, even though it didn’t pan out
  • Jonathan Willis: The unlikely goalie performances underpinning the Oilers’ hot start
  • Lowetide: How far away is Evan Bouchard and what role will he play with the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers right to wait until they’re sure before recalling Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson
  • Lowetide:  Can Leon Draisaitl score more than 50 goals this season?

OILERS AFTER 21 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 7-13-1, 15 points; goal differential -9
  • Oilers in 2016: 12-8-1, 25 points; goal differential +10
  • Oilers in 2017: 7-12-2, 16 points; goal differential -18
  • Oilers in 2018: 10-10-1, 21 points; goal differential -8
  • Oilers in 2019: 13-6-2, 28 points; goal differential +13

There’s nothing for Oilers fans to complain about and that may be a problem for some. That said, the quality of the roster’s top end is so high that Holland-Tippett have created a capable team on a shoestring budget. As I see it, the goaltending (Mike Smith) and scoring (James Neal) plus PK (a cast of many) were the key additions by management, along with Tippett who works hard on matchups and deploying his role players in areas they can succeed. Big win last night, excellent first 21 games.

OILERS IN NOVEMBER

  • Oilers in November 2015: 2-4-1, five points; goal differential -5
  • Oilers in November 2016: 2-4-1, five points; goal differential -6
  • Oilers in November 2017: 3-3-1, seven points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in November 2018: 3-4-0, six points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in November 2019: 4-2-1, nine points; goal differential +8

The shocking difference from past seasons is the goal differential. Amazing.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

  • On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
  • At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 4-2-1, 9 points after seven games

As was the case a month ago, we reach the middle of the schedule in November with the team over-delivering points based on my prediction. The goalies are holding, the defense appears capable and the top five forwards are outscoring all the faults. Is this sustainable? Hell if I know.

OILERS 2019-20

The five forwards who are posting crooked numbers stand out from the rest, not certain any of the others is guaranteed work beyond this season (including Chiasson). The auditions continue. Caleb Jones is Oilers player No. 27 on the season. All numbers five-on-five unless noted and all info from NST.

LINE 1 Leon Draisaitl-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 8:07, going 9-13 Corsi, 8-8 shots, 1-1 goals and 4-4 HDSC.

Leon Draisaitl had five assists, three on the power play. He leads the league’s scorers by a mile. Last year he had a chance to win the scoring title but this year is different. He has to be a strong candidate for the Hart based on the first 21 games. Amazing. Connor McDavid went 0-2-2 at five-on-five, 3-3-6 overall. Zack Kassian ran over Nathan MacKinnon in the game’s opening seconds and then got into a fight. Scored a goal at five-on-five and skated miles. I’d make a comment about all the credit he got for the early hit (‘set the tone’!) but I like him so will refrain from being a crusty old bastard.

LINE 2 James Neal-Nuge-Josh Archibald played 8:01, going 9-14 Corsi, 0-5 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-2 HDSC.

James Neal had a HDSC and a takeaway, along with a power-play assist. Nuge scored twice, once on the power play, and had a takeaway, a blocked shot and won six of eight in the dot. Josh Archibald had a shot and a HDSC plus a takeaway. I don’t know that he’ll get another chance with this line but he’s certainly fast enough.

LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Patrick Russell played 10:09, going 6-7 Corsi, 2-6 shots, no goals and 1-1 HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira won some battles along the wall but didn’t get much done with the puck. Riley Sheahan had a HDSC and won 6 of 10 faceoffs. I swear he’ll score, this isn’t another Rieder thing. Patrick Russell had a shot on goal.

LINE 4 Joakim Nygard-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 7:43, going 4-11 Corsi, 1-5 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.

Joakim Nygard’s speed is valuable on this roster, he is a noticeable player. He didn’t get a lot done but did draw a penalty. Gaetan Haas takes too long to move the puck and gets flattened a lot. I love his possibilities, but he gets caught a lot. Alex Chiasson had one shot on goal and it looked like he tipped a McDavid power-play shot but he didn’t get credit for it.

PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 11:21 together, going 10-14 Corsi, 9-10 shots, 1-2 goals and 4-4 HDSC. Spent 8:06 with McDavid, 7:43 against MacKinnon.

Darnell Nurse was the last Oilers player to touch the puck before each of the two goals entered the net. He lost a puck battle while trying to clear along the wall on the first goal and was slow to recognize danger on the second goal. He took three penalties and two giveaways. I’m a pro-Nurse observer, but that was a poor game. Ethan Bear was mostly good, he did have a giveaway and took a penalty due to waiting too long to outlet the puck. It’s exactly the kind of play rookies make and is outweighed by myriad intelligent decisions.

PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Caleb Jones played 11:16, going 10-15 Corsi, 1-5 shots, no goals and 1-3 HDSC. Played five minutes against the Kadri line.

Oscar Klefbom had three power-play assists, that’s an enormous evening for a defenseman. Now on pace for 55 points. Had two giveaways. Caleb Jones jumped into the rush a couple of times, had a takeaway and was effective passing the puck. He played well.

PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Matt Benning played 13:19, going 7-8 Corsi, 2-5 shots, no goals and 2-0 HDSC.

Kris Russell drew a penalty, put himself in harm’s way several times and performed as you would expect. All of the possession numbers are skewed with score effects but to my eye Tippett was comfortable rolling this duo more often as the game rolled along. TOI reflects same.

GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 31 of 33, .939. I don’t think he saw the first shot that beat him, and he couldn’t recover after an awkward save on the second goal. Smith made several impressive stops (Avs have marksmen), stopping seven of eight HDSC.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, TSN1260, we put the finishing touches on an unusual week. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will talk Oilers, Leafs, CFL playoffs and what HNIC should look like moving forward. Plus Matthew Iwanyk will talk Eskimos and we’ll chat about the possible craziness an Eskimos-Roughriders Grey Cup would do to the nation. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!

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300 Responses to "The McDavid Draisaitl Freeway"

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  1. Numenius says:

    Maybe this has already been noted, but I thought it was cool that it was exactly Manning who fought for McDavid the other day.

    I’d imagine McDavid appreciated the gesture in light of past sins.

  2. flea says:

    Oilman99: After hearing his mother talk the other night in Anaheim, i think there is a very good possibility that a hometown discount is in play.

    Looking at Kassian’s situation – it makes the most sense for him to stay in Edmonton. He’s been sober here in Edmonton, and possibly has the supports around him to continue this. Edmonton was the one who salvaged his career, and we’ve been lucky to see Zach begin to reach his draft potential before the lifestyle took over.

    Even so, I think short term (2 year) is the play here for Kassian. I actually don’t think other orgs will take long term chances on him based on his history of substance abuse. I think Kass is all over a 3 year deal from the Oilers, and I bet they could get him down to 2 years if necessary.

    The nice thing about him – he can fulfill other roles if the top line isn’t working out.

  3. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    GMB3: So despite the evidence outlined in the prior post, you still think they typically score at the same rate?

    – Connolly played for Washington, a prolific team that had lots of scoring and won lots of games, in a different role, in different circumstances, with better line mates untill Kass got Drai and McD.

    – Kassian put up 24, 19, 29 and say 50 points: and had little opportunity to play with skill untill last year what mid-season? Connolly went 24, 23 27 then 46.

    – There will be GM’s who will pay more for Kassian assuming he finishes above 50 points

    – 2 x 3MM is crazy-talk IMO: great do that if you can. If my aunt had balls… we will see. I say he gets a 4 handle + over 4 yrs somewhere: I hope we aren’t that team

  4. Bank Shot says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I don’t see why Kassian would accept a lesser contract than Ferland. IMO anything less than four years is wishful thinking.

    What team is going to give Kassian Ferland money?

    The guy’s career high before this season is 29 points.

    The “Who is going to play with McDrai?” question is the least of this team’s worries.

    If Kassian wants to be paid like more than the bottom six guy that he is, let another team pay it. McDrai can balloon some other guy’s numbers next season.

    I’d rather bring back Maroon on a 1 year deal for $2 million then overpay for Kassian.

  5. defmn says:

    Andy Dufresne: I wouldnt usually condone a two for one going in the wrong direction, but would two of the three contracts listed below be a good fit for a roster like ours that lacks depth at the forward position?

    If so, which two?

    Kerfoot, AlexanderC, LW AGE 25$3,500,000$3,500,000$3,500,000$3,500,000

    Johnsson, AndreasLW AGE24$3,400,000$3,400,000$3,400,000$3,400,000

    Kapanen, KasperiRWAGE 23$3,200,000$3,200,000$3,200,000

    Qualifier: I would sign Nurse and keep him for one more year before deciding on his future. Once he’s signed give him more PP time and on ice time with THE DUO (and 2nd year Bear)

    It’s an interesting list of players for sure. I mention Toronto as a possible target because, unlike Winnipeg, they have a GM & HC who are working under enormous pressure to win now.

    Your list is tempting because it fills two of Woodguy’s spots with quality young players who are under contract for term and I like all of them as they are with room for all of them to improve as players.

    When it comes to trading Nurse the discussion is so filled with emotion it makes it difficult to even discuss but the part that can’t be overstated is that GM’s do not trade players. They trade contracts or they trade draft picks. That is quite different than trading players – especially in the salary cap era.

    Trading Nurse this year would definitely weaken the team just as they are starting to believe in themselves so I wouldn’t do it unless I knew for a fact that re-signing him was going to be impossible within a range that made sense. I wouldn’t be happy to trade him this year but I think most here would understand that it was another of Chiarelli’s mistakes that left Holland in a bad situation since he should have been signed for term two years ago.

    I’ll let others argue what that upper limit is but as a GM you don’t always get the good deal offer at the optimum time. Sometimes you have to grab it when it is available even if it means short term pain – which this would for sure.

    I’d rather trade any of Larsson, Russell or even Benning but you don’t get the same player haul for any of them.

  6. JimmyV1965 says:

    GMB3: I don’t think Jim Benning has the cap space to sign Kassian as well. Ferland also signed at 27, Kassian will be signing at 29. Can’t see a ton of GM’s lining up to sign Kassian until 33.

    Any team that needs some skilled physicality and has a legit shot at winning the cup will be very interested in Kassian. There will be many suitors. GMs drool over guys like Kassian.

  7. duct tape and foil says:

    I think Kass should be (and very likely will be) very careful about moving away from a supportive environment where he was able to get his life together. The guy might be dead or out of hockey without the chance the Oilers gave him. It’s a feel good story that everyone should be careful not to screw up. The extra million is not worth it if you risk a relapse and you already have plenty in the bank. There is much more than just dollars and cents in play here.

    Been looking at bottom 6 line combos and Russell-Granlund-Haas looks interesting as a 4th line combo. Not sure why Tip has not use the Russell-Granlund combo more as their numbers together are pretty good in limited minutes. Add Haas and you might have a defensively solid line that can scoot. Wouldn’t play them against giants, but they may be effective against the speed merchants. Need a 3C for these bottom 6 forward to really jell. JP for Pageau please…..

  8. OriginalPouzar says:

    Durag:
    Do we think that Kassian might have some loyalty to the organization that took a chance on him and resurrected his career? Not to mention lets him ride shotgun with the best 2 players in the league. Does he take the fabled hometown discount? 4 years, $10M?

    I am not at all impugning the patient approach, but sometimes I can’t help but think that Tyler Benson would look awfully good on that 2nd line.

    I’ve been posting along these lines for a few days – Kass very likely feels a sense of loyalty towards the organization and we may just see the first ever actual “home town discount” for the Oilers.

    We don’t know this for certain but its reasonable to think its an option.

    From being “in the program” and having a bit of insight in to Zack’s recovery and the process and the daily work he much do, I am highly confident that he has a great deal of gratitude towards the organization – now, if that has any effect when we are talking millions of dollars, that I don’t know.

    ____________________________

    Benson is currently the top forward for the Condors – he’s been a driver the last 4 games or so and has found his scoring touch. I’d be comfortable with his call-up at any time, I think he’s ready for the shot. I’m confident he will get some 2 or 3 LW at bats in the NHL this year but just not sure when – injuries will happen at some point.

  9. duct tape and foil says:

    defmn,

    Defense depth is critical, and we haven’t even been able to fully enjoy it until Larsson gets back next week.

    You don’t trade Nurse or Klef until one of Jones, Samarukov or Broberg definitively proves themselves as top 4 capable. You don’t trade Larsson until Bear and Bouchard both definitively prove themselves as top 4 capable.

    We are not trading any of our existing top 4 dman before summer 2021. Jones and Lagesson are playing for a spot on the team and the loser will be traded. Want to see more of both this season.

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    BrantfordBoy:
    OriginalPouzar,

    Agreed… so we agree on 3x3M then?

    I’m not fully comfortable with it, however, if he continues this way for the rest of the year, it would be tough to let him go and he will have earned it.

    Yes, he’s being zoomed, of course, but, at the same time, he is NOT a passenger – he is value for his play right now.

  11. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Connolly played for Washington, a prolific team that had lots of scoring and won lots of games, in a different role, in different circumstances, with better line mates untill Kass got Drai and McD.

    – Kassian put up 24, 19, 29 and say 50 points: and had little opportunity to play with skill untill last year what mid-season?Connolly went 24, 23 27 then 46.

    – There will be GM’s who will pay more for Kassian assuming he finishes above 50 points

    – 2 x 3MM is crazy-talk IMO: great do that if you can.If my aunt had balls… we will see.I say he gets a 4 handle + over 4 yrs somewhere: I hope we aren’t that team

    Once again, ignoring the rate stats.

  12. meanashell11 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Nope. I’m not Eddie.

    Seems there’s a fair few dancers with a giving spirit. God bless them all. They’re doing good works.

    I’m not sure it was the same dancer, memory getting cloudy, but one time they got Eddie on stage, stripped him down, put a saddle on him, and road him around the stage like a pony. True story.

  13. Jordan says:

    Re Zach Attack

    Gagners 3+M comes off the books next summer.

    It’s really easy for me to see flipping 2ishM of that money over to Kassian, and figure out how long the Oilers are willing to entertain that number.

    However, it doesn’t take into account the expansion draft in ’21.

    Might make more sense to offer him 1 year at 4.5 and guarantee him McDavid time and tell him they’ll re-sign him after the expansion so they don’t have to protect him and can keep the team together.

    Zack is a team first guy. He’d buy in, I think. And that still leaves 1M for the replacement for Gagner down the lineup. Maybe Gagner even comes back for league min, in search of a cup?

    Could we actually see some discounts on FAs who want to ride on the McDraihHopkins Winners Wagon?

  14. OriginalPouzar says:

    verdad:
    Trading Nurse is an imperative for this team
    Ever night proves it
    Trade him asap, Toronto and Winnipeg the obvious targets
    Nylander or Ehlers for Nurse is a steal

    How do you make either of those work for the cap right now?

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    (1) If Nurse wants $7m +, what do you do?I am well known here as not being the biggest fan but having a stable D corpse for the first time since 2006 would be nice.

    (2) What kind of season does Neal have to have to not buy him out next summer?

    3 years left after this at $5.75m.

    $1.916m over 6 years.Savings is $3.833m for 3 years of McDavid’s prime.

    Wait until 2021 and same savings but for 2 years, and paying out $1.916m over 4 years instead of 6.

    Maybe the dream is to trade him for a team that needs the cap hit for the floor?

    Otherwise unless you really think he’ll score 25 goals next year, seems like should be bought out.

    And again, what a goddamn trade for Holland.

    Just a reminder buying out Lucic next year would be $500K savings, $2m savings, $500K savings, with paying out $4.812m, $3.5m, $4.812m, $437,500 (x3) on the cap hit.

    He will never be worth his current cap hit but it would be tough to buy out a 20-25 goal scorer for a team that doesn’t have a ton of scoring depth.

    Turn it around, forget his current cap hit, it is what it is – can you replace what would be lost with the cap savings? I don’t know that the answer to that is yes.

    As far as trading to a “cap floor team”, that has essentially become a myth given there are almost no cap floor teams. Arizona, of all organizations, is an upper cap limit team.

  16. defmn says:

    duct tape and foil:
    defmn,

    Defense depth is critical, and we haven’t even been able to fully enjoy it until Larsson gets back next week.

    You don’t trade Nurse or Klef until one of Jones, Samarukov or Broberg definitively proves themselves as top 4 capable. You don’t trade Larsson until Bear and Bouchard both definitively prove themselves as top 4 capable.

    We are not trading any of our existing top 4 dman before summer 2021. Jones and Lagesson are playing for a spot on the team and the loser will be traded. Want to see more of both this season.

    I don’t think that is how it works. Good GM’s make trades when they think the trade makes their team better. If you think trading a top four dman for offence doesn’t accomplish that you don’t make the trade but saying you don’t trade a player until the perfect moment is just not true.

    You trade when you think the trade makes your team better off. Sometimes that is for a particular season and sometimes it is for the future so all this stuff about you don’t trade any dmen because we finally have depth there is irrelevant. You trade when you think the trade improves the team.

    So I will stick with my opinion, thanks anyway. If Holland knows that Nurse can’t be signed this summer to a contract that equates to his valuation of Nurse as a player it is his job to find a way to turn that loss into a win.

    To take a silly example. If Colorado phones tomorrow and offers MacKinnon for Nurse do you say “no”? Well then it isn’t obvious that Nurse can’t be traded. You don’t know that because you don’t know what his next contract will require and you don’t know what players he can bring back in.

  17. OriginalPouzar says:

    “Leon Draisaitl, the human apple tree with 5 assists” – Zack Kassian

    Love this guy – such a leader.

  18. Reja says:

    flea: Looking at Kassian’s situation – it makes the most sense for him to stay in Edmonton. He’s been sober here in Edmonton, and possibly has the supports around him to continue this. Edmonton was the one who salvaged his career, and we’ve been lucky to see Zach begin to reach his draft potential before the lifestyle tookover.

    Even so, I think short term (2 year) is the play here for Kassian. I actually don’t think other orgs will take long term chances on him based on his history of substance abuse. I think Kass is all over a 3 year deal from the Oilers, and I bet they could get him down to 2 years if necessary.

    The nice thing about him – he can fulfill other roles if the top line isn’t working out.

    I could easily see Kass coaching after he calls it a day and retires

  19. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    “Leon Draisaitl, the human apple tree with 5 assists” – Zack Kassian

    Love this guy – such a leader.

    Pretty quiet 5 assist game he’s quietly picking up fans for the MVP conversation. When’s the last time a team had 2 nominations?

  20. Reja says:

    What’s the over-under the cap going up in the next 3 years 8 million.

  21. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    GMB3: Once again, ignoring the rate stats.

    ? – brah: I spoke to those stats. I don’t think that’s his whole story or rating? If he scores 20 goals and 50 points he’s going to get Connolly plus money full stop.

    – what’s your gripe?

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: I can’t believe the level of irrational exuberance here for the next Kassian contract. Might be higher than after the San Jose series.

    Let’s not forget that he had four points in the first 41 games played last season (he played 38).

    He has three season in his NHL career in which he’s hit double digits in goals.

    He had a career high 29 points six seasons ago.

    I like Kassian, but let’s not get crazy here.

    This season will be his best offensive NHL year ever.

    I don’t love 29, 30, and 31-year-old seasons for this player type.

    Playing him with 29 and 97 is going to inflate the heck out of his next contract unfortunately.

    Maybe if Yamo is ready, you can play a Kassian in the bottom six for the back nine of this season. If he puts up four points in the back nine, you run not walk away.

    There’s going to be a lot of risk in Kassian’s next contract.

    “Maybe if Yamo is ready, you can play a Kassian in the bottom six for the back nine of this season. If he puts up four points in the back nine, you run not walk away.”

    Are you suggesting that the coach deploy his lineup in an inferior way due to future cap implications or that the GM may direct the coach to do so – in a year where the team looks to be a playoff team and reasonably likely to battle for the division?

  23. Reja says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: ? – brah: I spoke to those stats. I don’t think that’s his whole story or rating?If he scores 20 goals and 50 points he’s going to get Connolly plus money full stop.

    – what’s your gripe?

    I don’t why but Kass reminds me of Cleary with his speed. Is Mama Kass a late bloomer like some others with speed over the years.

  24. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    TeamPP%

    Tampa Bay32.00
    Edmonton 31.75
    Boston 30.51
    St. Louis26.23
    Florida25.00
    Carolina 24.59

    TeamPK%

    San Jose 90.5
    Pittsburg88.1
    Vegreville87.8
    Edmonton 87.3
    Philadelphia86.3
    NY Islanders 85.7

    Edmonton 31.75 +87.3= 119.05

    We win the Scott Bowman Award

    #WhatTheF#ckIsHappeningHere

    #LeonWInsHart

    Anyone notice Connor calls him Leo?

    Has to be a nickname. Leo is better than Draisy 😁

  25. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Reja: I don’t why but Kass reminds me of Cleary with his speed. Is Mama Kass a late bloomer like some others with speed over the years.

    He’s always been fast. He’s a late bloomer getting his life together so it wasn’t interfering with his hockey.

  26. russ99 says:

    Reja,

    Way under. Until Seattle is established the cap won’t jump and there’s a really good likelyhood the players walk out over escrow before Seattle playa a game.

  27. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Kassian and Nurse are soon to be the league’s heavyweights. Players like Lucic, Reaves, Gudbranson aren’t long for the league as it’s going.

    Unless a contract demand is too much what GM wouldn’t want the league’s best players and the league’s toughest?

    Holland has typically had ruffians that could play on the Wings. It’s always been coveted even back to LT’s old timey days. The difference being the league went through a staged fighting phase, by non NHL talent, that was the exception not the norm.

  28. Scungilli Slushy says:

    In another year Connor and Leon will have more of their man strength and be a year harder.

    If Yamo is ready maybe you play Kassian on his opposite to ‘keep the flies off’. If you can’t ditch Neal maybe you move him to the top line and run Kassian Nuge Yama as the second.

  29. GMB3 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: ? – brah: I spoke to those stats. I don’t think that’s his whole story or rating?If he scores 20 goals and 50 points he’s going to get Connolly plus money full stop.

    – what’s your gripe?

    I was just trying to see if you understand rate statistics. But I guess not 🤷🏼‍♂️. No gripe, just surprising that you draw the conclusion that they are the same kind of scorer when one has shown to be considerably more prolific than the other. Reminds me of the folks on this fine blog that thought Chiasson was a comparable player to Connolly. Not even close. Full stop.

    You could be right, he may command that kind of money, but I highly doubt he shoots 25% to finish the rest of the year, and I doubt he gets 4 years at 4+.

    At least we can both agree that it would be unwise for Ken to be the guy shelling out that kind of cash.

  30. deardylan says:

    I scrolled through oilershockey headlines and TheMcDavidDraisaitlFreeway catches my eye. Of course it is Lowetide link.

    Click on link get a nice photo of 97 smiling and 29 hugging him and bright blue background with a Stengel line waking up my mind. Again classic Lowetide.

    Wonder where I can find any better place in the online hockeyworld. Is there any virtual Cheers that is even close to this place run not by money but by love of oilers and sharing with others.

    Thanks LT and all others who donate their time and brains to contributing to the site in some ways. Love those long term lurkers that say hi, add something because they were inspired by something. Marathons, whiskey, music or whatever. What a hoot. What a journey. I wonder who will continue this for the next generation…and next. This site is lengendary!

  31. Bag of Pucks says:

    meanashell11: I’m not sure it was the same dancer, memory getting cloudy, but one time they got Eddie on stage, stripped him down, put a saddle on him, and road him around the stage like a pony. True story.

    Bet the song playing was Mony Mony.

    “Ride the pony! Ride the pony!”

  32. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy: Kassian is not 32 next year.

    I suggested going year to year after 32.

    If I’m Holland I want to go 2 years with him and take him until he’s 31.

    Yes, two years would be ideal but, realistically, assuming he continues to perform for the rest of the year in the ballpark of his first quarter performance, he will get offered more term on the open market – I think we can be confident in that.

    There is likely some loyalty to the Oilers and the organization but if he’s offered two more years than in Edmonton…….

    It would be great if we could lock him up in early 2020 (assuming continued performance) for two years. Kass seems to me like he may be willing to re-sign prior the hitting the market.

    I do think that Holland may be willing to commit to a longer term on this player – time will tell.

  33. Gerta Rauss says:

    russ99:

    Way under. Until Seattle is established the cap won’t jump and there’s a really good likelyhood the players walk out over escrow before Seattle playa a game.

    Well that’s not true- both the NHL and the PA decided in Sept not to exercise the “out” clause, so the CBA will expire in Sept of ’22.

    Seattle joins the NHL at the draft in June of ’21, and plays it’s first game in Oct of ’21

  34. OriginalPouzar says:

    Side: Broberg is “back up to 15 minutes”? Didn’t he start the year playing a lot of minutes?Has he lost ice time due to performance or something else?

    Just going by memory a bit here but he’s basically averaged around 14-15 minutes for most of the year. He maybe had a couple games in the 17 min range early.

    When I say “back up” is because I’ve seen him a bit in the 13 minute range a couple of times.

    Remember, I think Skelfeeta generally dresses 7D and even 14-15 minutes for an 18-19 year old n that league is pretty substantial and a big deal.

    I don’t think its been a performance issue but I’m not the best person to answer questions on the European guys. I do know that, as of a few weeks ago, his possession metrics were at the top of the chart.

  35. JimmyV1965 says:

    russ99:
    Reja,

    Way under. Until Seattle is established the cap won’t jump and there’s a really good likelyhood the players walk out over escrow before Seattle playa a game.

    I don’t know why the owners would care about escrow. The rate doesn’t change how much they pay out in total salary. If anything, the escrow battle is within the NHLPA.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    jm: =======
    This sums up my thinking. After a blistering start they are 5-4-1 in their last ten (90 point pace). This looks a fair reflection. It’s going to be (close assuming Connor and Leon stay healthy) but that start may see them through. Hat tip to Holland and Tippett.

    Hat tip to Caleb Jones also, he played ok. Whereas Kris Russell is painful to watch on his off side it is hardly noticeable with Caleb. Still trying to work that one out.

    My buddy (a Rangers fan) and I share an NHL.com subscription here in the Philippines and have never had a problem using a VPN. Interesting.

    With respect to Russell vs. Jones vis-a-vis playing their off-side, before the game Tippett spoke about Jones and his foot positioning allowing him to be effective on the off-side – spoke about liking leftie/rightie but that some players have the ability to be effective on their off-sides and that is one of the reasons.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    dustrock:
    Woodguy v2.0,

    Why are you not employed by an actual NHL team?Good stuff.

    I was actually thinking along the same lines with respect to WG just a few days ago.

    I post on one other site consistently (for close to 15 years) and take quite a bit of grief when I use “fancy stats” to back up my positions.

    It will be of surprise to noone here that there are a few on that other site that really really don’t like me (I’m a goof, I know nothing about hockey, etc.) and bring up my “buddies on Lowetide” and how I “just get my opinions from the computer geeks and fake media on LT that don’t know the game”, etc.

    I was thinking to myself, I don’t think it will be long before WG is employed by an NHL team.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    geowal: Can teams retain, without penalty into the next year, on expiring contracts at the deadline? If the sellers have cap space that could free things up and justify getting a higher pick in return.

    Yes, they can – retaining (up to 50%) will never have an impact post-contract term like buyouts do.

  39. McNuge93 says:

    JimmyV1965: I don’t know why the owners would care about escrow. The rate doesn’t change how much they pay out in total salary. If anything, the escrow battle is within the NHLPA.

    The players have actually started to address escrow by reducing the escalator clause amount this past year and maybe future years. Instead of increasing the cap by 2 or 3 million each year via this clause it was increase by a smaller amount this year. Caught some teams by surprise who were hoping for a higher cap.

  40. OriginalPouzar says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    I suspected Bouchard would play 50 games in Edmonton this year.

    Think I am running like 0/50 on my predictions

    At the beginning of the year, I fully expected him to play material games in Edmonton in the 2nd half of the year, not 50 but material.

    As of now, I’m thinking he may not even play 10 (which would be fantastic – his ELC would slide for another year and it likely means that the defence is holding and the injuries are aggregating).

    Frankly, he is playing a little bit under my expectations in Bakersfield – don’t get me wrong, his offensive skill and transition skill are clear and evident and I haven’t soured one iota on what he will become, however, he is making more mistakes than I anticipated in the offensive zone and his “deficiencies”, well, they remain.

    The coaches are asking him to work on physicality in front of the net and urgency in general on retrievals and the back end and, frankly, I have seen too much growth, yet.

    It will come – the “junior habits” can take a while and its only been like 15 games. He is not on the top pairing (was with Jones but I would assume Lagesson this weekend).

    Playing with a “lesser transition player” in Lagesson, I wonder if Bouch will take over as the anchor of the pair.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Me too. I thought he hada better than good chance of make it out of camp, then being put in a sheltered 3rd pairing role and featured on the PP.

    In my opinion there was almost zero chance he would break camp with the team.

    He’s coming along in the Bake – it’ll take a bit of time but he’s coming.

  42. Side says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    Excellent.

    Thank you.

  43. OriginalPouzar says:

    KingerOilredux: – As you probably know there are 3 ways to get in: 1) lottery, 2) agree to raise money for charity 3) pay to run through Marlin Travel (who is the Canadian international rep)

    – So none of these are open yet, but one way or the other I’m assured to go, just depends on price.

    – Much easier if you are a New Yorker… Your wife ran it: how did she get in?

    She got in via the lottery – was her first try to.

    Opening the e-mail – may have been the most excited I’ve ever seen her….

  44. Ryan says:

    OriginalPouzar: “Maybe if Yamo is ready, you can play a Kassian in the bottom six for the back nine of this season. If he puts up four points in the back nine, you run not walk away.”

    Are you suggesting that the coach deploy his lineup in an inferior way due to future cap implications or that the GM may direct the coach to do so – in a year where the team looks to be a playoff team and reasonably likely to battle for the division?

    No. Absolutely not. At least not in the linear manner in which you made the connection. Yamamoto would have to ‘win’ the job.

    Riding shotgun with McDavid and Draisatl is the best job in hockey, until it’s not.

    The downside to the job is the immense press to produce.

    There’s a long season ahead and no guarantee that Kassian holds the job for the rest of it.

    If Yamamoto is brought up around January, he has skill and shoots right. Decent chance he gets a look on that line if Kassian is struggling.

    I’m sure some considerations in roster deployment could be cap related. You could make an argument for Nurse to be playing PP1 (based on previous season data. Nurse had a GFON/60 at 5v4 last season of 8.99 vs 8.06 Klefbom) Obviously having Klefbom who’s locked in at 4 m and change for another three seasons soak up those PP1 points is better from a cap management standpoint.

  45. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: In my opinion there was almost zero chance he would break camp with the team.

    He’s coming along in the Bake – it’ll take a bit of time but he’s coming.

    I guess when you have the number 1 PP in the world you don’t have to rush Bouchard for the Kelfbom position. Said it from day 1 Top 10 PP and PK = Playoffs.

  46. OriginalPouzar says:

    JethroTull: Kassian was born in Windsor, Ontario.A hometown discount would mean he would take less money to play for Detroit, the closest NHL team. Or Toronto if he was feeling patriotic. This could be Zack’s payday, and he may have earned it.

    The term actually comes from the UK and soccer teams, where the player w ould often be a fan of the team where he grew up and would take less money at the end of his career to play for a team that he’d always supported, whether it be top flight or semi-pro.There were no tax boundaries like in the major league sports of the US and Canada.

    I believe Zack may be LT’s Pisani.

    That’s good information on the UK and where the term came from – I didn’t know that.

    Of course, as used vis-a-vis the NHL, its common meaning is signing less to stay with you incumbent team.

    Also, Zack is an average defensive player and below average penalty killer – I don’t see him at LT’s Pisani at all.

  47. OriginalPouzar says:

    flea: Looking at Kassian’s situation – it makes the most sense for him to stay in Edmonton. He’s been sober here in Edmonton, and possibly has the supports around him to continue this. Edmonton was the one who salvaged his career, and we’ve been lucky to see Zach begin to reach his draft potential before the lifestyle tookover.

    Even so, I think short term (2 year) is the play here for Kassian. I actually don’t think other orgs will take long term chances on him based on his history of substance abuse. I think Kass is all over a 3 year deal from the Oilers, and I bet they could get him down to 2 years if necessary.

    The nice thing about him – he can fulfill other roles if the top line isn’t working out.

    Michael Ferland, who’s contract is being used as a potential comparable for Kass, got a 4 year deal, coming off concssion issues – he’s a recovering addict.

  48. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: Michael Ferland, who’s contract is being used as a potential comparable for Kass, got a 4 year deal, coming off concssion issues – he’s a recovering addict.

    How many pro sports players do you estimate use PEDs or the usual to get by?

    I’m thinking lo. Kassian with be coveted but will want to stay. I think 3 will do it which I think is fair. Term, no idea, depending on how stpd his agent is.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    Confirmed Joe G. back in the lineup tonight and Skinne starts (we know Starrett is still week to week).

    No Marody (although earlier in the week Woody said its not long tem) and no Maksimov (bah – I thought he played well last weekend and don’t understand why he’s not an every day player).

  50. Glovjuice says:

    Well, I spent about a month with a stripper many years ago. Not 48 hours straight in a hotel but 30 days or so in a state of constant anticipation and yearning.

  51. OriginalPouzar says:

    Jordan:
    Re Zach Attack

    Gagners 3+M comes off the books next summer.

    It’s really easy for me to see flipping 2ishM of that money over to Kassian, and figure out how long the Oilers are willing to entertain that number.

    However, it doesn’t take into account the expansion draft in ’21.

    Might make more sense to offer him 1 year at 4.5 and guarantee him McDavid time and tell him they’ll re-sign him after the expansion so they don’t have to protect him and can keep the team together.

    Zack is a team first guy.He’d buy in, I think.And that still leaves 1M for the replacement for Gagner down the lineup.Maybe Gagner even comes back for league min, in search of a cup?

    Could we actually see some discounts on FAs who want to ride on the McDraihHopkins Winners Wagon?

    I don’t think you can think of it that way – i.e. $2M of Gagner’s cap hit goes to Kassian.

    Many many players are coming off the book but reality is that they will have only apx $18M of cap room to fill 12 of the 23 roster spots.

    They will have apx $25M of room with 13 spots to fill including Nurse and we know he’ll come in around $7M (it may be a bit less but that’s the range).

    That $18M includes Kassian (or his replacement), Smith (or his replacement), a 3C, etc.

    Of course, one hopes that $4M is opened up with a clean Russell disposition but we’ll see.

    If $4M of that $18M is sent to Kasssian – yikes on the rest of the roster no matter if $2M of that $4M “came from Gagner”.

    ————-

    Also, heck no on any “guarantees” or “promises” on roster spots or deployment – even if that was the case, I don’t see Zack signing a one year deal with multiple year deals on the table – the risk is too high – injury, regression, etc.

  52. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I was actually thinking along the same lines with respect to WG just a few days ago.

    I post on one other site consistently (for close to 15 years) and take quite a bit of grief when I use “fancy stats” to back up my positions.

    It will be of surprise to noone here that there are a few on that other site that really really don’t like me (I’m a goof, I know nothing about hockey, etc.) and bring up my “buddies on Lowetide” and how I “just get my opinions from the computer geeks and fake media on LT that don’t know the game”, etc.

    I was thinking to myself, I don’t think it will be long before WG is employed by an NHL team.

    NHL teams mostly hire the people with superior database, statistical training and coding abilities than I have.

    I mess around with it as a hobby, but nothing more.

    Guys like GMoney have the skill sets.

    My skill set is more of managing and directing an analytics department and they don’t hire off the street for those.

    Occasionally someone like Tyler gets dropped in to a spot like that but his experience dwarfs mine.

    I’m also not looking for a NHL job so I’m not actively publishing articles like the people who are trying to get these jobs.

    I appreciate your thoughts though.

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    russ99:
    Reja,

    Way under. Until Seattle is established the cap won’t jump and there’s a really good likelyhood the players walk out over escrow before Seattle playa a game.

    Nope.

    The PA agreed to not reopen the CBA until at least Set 15, 2022.

    SEA starts playing Oct 2021.

    Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.secondcityhockey.com/platform/amp/2019/9/16/20868234/nhlpa-declines-option-reopen-collective-bargaining-agreement-extends-to-september-15-2022-deadline

  54. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Gerta Rauss: Well that’s not true- both the NHL and the PA decided in Sept not to exercise the “out” clause, so the CBA will expire in Sept of ’22.

    Seattle joins the NHL at the draft in June of ’21, and plays it’s first game in Oct of ’21

    Didn’t see yours before I posted mine.

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: Pretty quiet 5 assist game he’s quietly picking up fans for the MVP conversation. When’s the last time a team had 2 nominations?

    Rishaug and Nielson were talking about this today: 2001 with Mario and Jaromir.

  56. OriginalPouzar says:

    russ:
    Reja,

    Way under. Until Seattle is established the cap won’t jump and there’s a really good likelyhood the players walk out over escrow before Seattle playa a game.

    It won’t go up very much in the next few years – in fact, speculation is it could be close to flat for next year or a nominal increase.

    I don’t think Seattle’s revenue really adds all that much but the big one may be the US TV deal. The current deal expires in 2021/22 season so a new deal will kick in for the 2022/23 season – I think its for the 2023/24 season that we are likely to see a massive increase.

    Of course, before then, we will have a new CBA in place so much could change on how the cap is calculated.

  57. OriginalPouzar says:

    Geez, camera angle in the Colorado arena is crazy – its like ice level – just awful….

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    Phil Kemp picks up an assist in the third.

    Don’t sleep on Kemp as a potential down the line. Loved his play for Team USA at last years U-20.

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Reja:
    What’s the over-under the cap going up in the next 3 years 8 million.

    Hard over.

    2 reasons:

    1) NBC deal expires 2021. So new deal in place for 21/22 season.

    Deal currently is $200MM.

    Originally people were projecting $500MM, but with networks desperate for “must watch live” programming like sport and ESPN making indicators that it wants to broadcast games, now people are projecting ~700MM

    For sake of argument, use $600MM

    I’m think they’ll account for the new deal when figuring out the 21/22 cap, but not 100%, so let’s say they are.

    2) Seattle.

    Vegas came in an was immediately a top 5 team in NHL revenue with revenue HRR around $175MM.

    Seattle is expected to at least match this, but let’s assume $150MM

    So we get:

    Cap in 19/20 is 81.5MM

    Increase of $2MM next year for general inflation in revenues with the PA not using the escalator to keep escrow in check.

    Cap in 20/21 is 83.5

    Now add in the extra $400MM from the new US T.V., divide by 32 teams, divide by 2 as the players get 50% and that’s 6.25. Also add $2MM for inflation

    Cap in 21/20 is $90MM

    SEA comes in and adds $150MM. Divide 32 and then 2 and you get 2.35MM. Add $2MM for inflation.

    Cap in 21/22 is ~$94.5MM

    I’m conservative at $2MM/yr inflation and $150MM for SEA.

    I bet I’m close on the US TV deal, but it could go higher for sure.

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar: It won’t go up very much in the next few years – in fact, speculation is it could be close to flat for next year or a nominal increase.

    I don’t think Seattle’s revenue really adds all that much but the big one may be the US TV deal. The current deal expires in 2021/22 season so a new deal will kick in for the 2022/23 season – I think its for the 2023/24 season that we are likely to see a massive increase.

    Of course, before then, we will have a new CBA in place so much could change on how the cap is calculated.

    NBC deal expires at the end of 20/21.

    SEA will add a ton.

    SEA has sold out of season tickets at higher prices than Vegas with a 20K person waiting list.

    The merchandising sales are expected to match Vegas as well.

    Vegas’ revenue in its initial year is estimated at $175MM.

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Not a great start for the top prospects:

    – Yamamoto gets a cross-seem pass on the PP picked off and takes a holding penalty as the play goes back the other way. Eagles score on the PP.

    – Bouchard loses position in the defensive zone and takes an ensuring penalty.

    With Maksimov out, Yamamoto is killing PIMs with McLeod.

  62. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Source on NBC deal: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_on_NBC

    2011–21 contract
    On April 19, 2011, after ESPN, Turner Sports and Fox Sports placed bids, NBC Sports announced it had reached a ten-year extension to its television contract with the NHL (through the 2020–21 season) worth nearly $2 billion over the tenure of the contract.

    Source on VGK revenues: https://www.forbes.com/teams/vegas-golden-knights/#334dd3434c2b

    Forbes have them at $180MM. I had read $175 elsewhere and Bill Foley said they were a top 5 revenue team in the NHL in their first year in an interview that I can’t find right now. (On my phone)

  63. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    I didn’t include new gambling revenues but those will probably be small to start.

    The NHL/MGM deal is estimated to be half of the NBA/MGM deal for $25MM, but the NHL isn’t exclusive to MGM either and other gambling revenues should come over time.

  64. OriginalPouzar says:

    Halifax loses in 2-1 in OT – quiet night for Lavoie with no points and only six shots on net.

    Rodrigue not the starter for Moncton.

    Kesserling with a shot and a couple blocks. -1 in a 3-2 loss for N. Eastern – I’ve got high hopes for this kid.

    No points for Rasanen or McPhee in a 5-1 win – a couple shots each. Rasanen 8 for 11 in the circle.

    Looks like Kemp’s assist was taken away as Yale drops a 4-3 decision.

    Skyler Brind’Amour with a shot and 7 of 11 on the dot.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ryan: No. Absolutely not. At least not in the linear manner in which you made the connection. Yamamoto would have to ‘win’ the job.

    Riding shotgun with McDavid and Draisatl is the best job in hockey, until it’s not.

    The downside to the job is the immense press to produce.

    There’s a long season ahead and no guarantee that Kassian holds the job for the rest of it.

    If Yamamoto is brought up around January, he has skill and shoots right. Decent chance he gets a look on that line if Kassian is struggling.

    I’m sure some considerations in roster deployment could be cap related. You could make an argument for Nurse to be playing PP1 (based on previous season data. Nurse had a GFON/60 at 5v4 last season of 8.99 vs 8.06 Klefbom) Obviously having Klefbom who’s locked in at 4 m and change for another three seasons soak up those PP1 points is better from a cap management standpoint.

    Fair enough – that suggested deployment presumes Kassian starting to struggle as 1RW – very well may happen and, if it does, of couse, he could be moved down. I though you were suggesting that, if Yamamoto gets called up and is playing well that he gets moved to 1RW notwithstanding Kassian continuing his success in the name of future cap management.

    As an aside, I see Yamamoto as a higer skilled third line NHLer – a tenacious forechecker and piss-cutter that creates turnovers, kills penalties and adds skill to the bottom six. I’m not closing the door on him becoming a top 6 player but I think he has a bit of a lack of finish.

    You could be right on the PP1 d-man deployment. Nurse’s production on PP1 in Klef’s absence last year was in the same range as Klef’s recent production. With that said, starting with Klef as PP1 made sense irrespective of contract – he was the incumbent, has a better PP skillset and did have a big year on the PP back in 2017. Now he’s top 16 in the NHL among D in 4 X 5 P/60.

  66. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Correction on VGK being a “top 5 revenue team”

    Foley said they were a “top 5,6,7 ticket revenue team”

    Source: https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/20367601/nhl-golden-knights-owner-bill-foley-big-plans-vegas-beyond

    They still had ~$175MM revenue team, but that’s top 10, not top 5.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Not a great start for the top prospects:

    – Yamamoto gets a cross-seem pass on the PP picked off and takes a holding penalty as the play goes back the other way.Eagles score on the PP.

    – Bouchard loses position in the defensive zone and takes an ensuring penalty.

    With Maksimov out, Yamamoto is killing PIMs with McLeod.

    Struggles continue for the top prospect – Benson loses a board battle in the defensive zone, turns the puck over and its in the net.

    2-0 Colarado.

  68. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Nope.

    The PA agreed to not reopen the CBA until at least Set 15, 2022.

    SEA starts playing Oct 2021.

    Source: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.secondcityhockey.com/platform/amp/2019/9/16/20868234/nhlpa-declines-option-reopen-collective-bargaining-agreement-extends-to-september-15-2022-deadline

    That pretty much means they decided escrow was the biggest issue
    So I’m guessing cap goes up by a mil

  69. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilers fall out of first place in the Western Conference as the Blues gain a point in an OT loss.

    Of note, Oilers have 10 regulation wins and the Blues 7 – that’s is something that could be important down the road.

  70. leadfarmer says:

    Seattle will be a big money maker for the league
    Good sports city with a lot of corporate sponsorship

  71. Reja says:

    Woodguy v2.0: NBC deal expires at the end of 20/21.

    SEA will add a ton.

    SEA has sold out of season tickets at higher prices than Vegas with a 20K person waiting list.

    The merchandising sales are expected to match Vegas as well.

    Vegas’ revenue in its initial year is estimated at $175MM.

    Vegas is adding some nice dinero, Seattle is the jackpot all they have is the Sounders and the masses have a ton of nerd cash just waiting to be spent. People are underestimating the cash flow they will bring in.

  72. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja: I guess when you have the number 1 PP in the world you don’t have to rush Bouchard for the Kelfbom position. Said it from day 1 Top 10 PP and PK = Playoffs.

    Correct – I would also add that, even if the PP was struggling (and Bear was included in those struggles), I don’t imagine that Bouchard would be a call-up option – he’s just not ready for the NHL.

  73. OriginalPouzar says:

    ScungillSlushy: How many pro sports players do you estimate use PEDs or the usual to get by?

    I’m thinking lo. Kassian with be coveted but will want to stay. I think 3 will do it which I think is fair. Term, no idea, depending on how stpd his agent is.

    I have no idea the answer to your question and I’m hopeful you are right on the Kass AAV – it would hurt to lose him for next year but, at the same time, they almost need a discount with the cap situation.

    My post that your were responding to was in relation to the opinion that teams won’t take long term risk on players with substance abuse history and i was pointing out that Vancouver just did exactly that – substance abuse history plus coming off concussion issues.

  74. OriginalPouzar says:

    Woodguy: NBC deal expires at the end of 20/21.

    SEA will add a ton.

    SEA has sold out of season tickets at higher prices than Vegas with a 20K person waiting list.

    The merchandising sales are expected to match Vegas as well.

    Vegas’ revenue in its initial year is estimated at $175MM.

    Forbes says it ends at the end of 2021/22.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadgate/2019/01/15/hockeys-big-pay-day-is-coming/#7ec40c454e44

    I have now read other sources that do indeed say a year earlier.

  75. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar,
    10 year deal signed April 2011
    So to start the following season as the 2010-11 season is almost done

  76. Reja says:

    Toronto Is going to start eating their own soon.

  77. OriginalPouzar says:

    Condors playing well, better team at 5 on 5 but just can’t cash – a couple 5-bell saves (one on Day and one on Joe G).

    Now, Condor on a PP and Daniel Renouf attacks Brad Malone who doesn’t retaliate and its a 5 on 3.

    Yamamoto, Jurco, Bouchard, Benson, Malone.

    ————

    Geez, Bouchard, one-time, misses the net and it rims around for a clear and then later Bouchad with a shot blocked for a clear.

    Not a great game for Evan.

  78. JimmyV1965 says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Hard over.

    2 reasons:

    1) NBC deal expires 2021. So new deal in place for 21/22 season.

    Deal currently is $200MM.

    Originally people were projecting $500MM, but with networks desperate for “must watch live” programming like sport and ESPN making indicators that it wants to broadcast games, now people are projecting ~700MM

    For sake of argument, use $600MM

    I’m think they’ll account for the new deal when figuring out the 21/22 cap, but not 100%, so let’s say they are.

    2) Seattle.

    Vegas came in an was immediately a top 5 team in NHL revenue with revenue HRR around $175MM.

    Seattle is expected to at least match this, but let’s assume $150MM

    So we get:

    Cap in 19/20 is 81.5MM

    Increase of $2MM next year for general inflation in revenues with the PA not using the escalator to keep escrow in check.

    Cap in 20/21 is 83.5

    Now add in the extra $400MM from the new US T.V., divide by 32 teams, divide by 2 as the players get 50% and that’s 6.25.Also add $2MM for inflation

    Cap in 21/20 is $90MM

    SEA comes in and adds $150MM.Divide 32 and then 2 and you get 2.35MM.Add $2MM for inflation.

    Cap in 21/22 is ~$94.5MM

    I’m conservative at $2MM/yr inflation and $150MM for SEA.

    I bet I’m close on the US TV deal, but it could go higher for sure.

    I wonder why the players seem to be taking a harder line on escrow now when they know they can potentially resolve the issue in a few years. If I’m a UFA next year I wouldn’t want to mess with escrow now and potentially receive less money, only to see UFAs in three years hit the jackpot.

  79. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    JimmyV1965: I wonder why the players seem to be taking a harder line on escrow now when they know they can potentially resolve the issue in a few years. If I’m a UFA next year I wouldn’t want to mess with escrow now and potentially receive less money, only to see UFAs in three years hit the jackpot.

    Given that they’re not re-opening the CBA, didn’t vote for the escalator this this and probably won’t next year it looks like they are waiting for actual revenues to catch up to the cap.

    They’re get more of their salaries now if they don’t keep using the escalator. Time value of money. A dollar today is worth more than one next year.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Condors may never score again – Yamamoto can’t convert on a clear cut SH breakaway.

  81. OriginalPouzar says:

    30 shots, many high danger, no goals.

    Jurco now with back to back PIMs.

  82. Reja says:

    Holland needs to go to work and find a 3rd line Centre that can kill penalties and win faceoffs In a critical situation.

  83. OriginalPouzar says:

    Reja:
    Holland needsto go to work and find a 3rd line Centre that can kill penalties and win faceoffs In acritical situation.

    What about Jesse plus for a 3C?

    Not sure that 3C would need to be a high end PK guy (wouldn’t hurt though) – Sheahan would be 4C knocing Hass, a non-killer, out of the lineup (unless he moves to wing).

    Would still have

    Nuge/Khaira
    Sheahan/Archie
    Russell/Granlund

  84. OriginalPouzar says:

    Empty net goal and the Condors lose 3-0.

    Tough loss as the Condors were the better team from start to finish – that was a Vezina performance – a 39 save shutout (shots 29-26).

  85. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar: What about Jesse plus for a 3C?

    Not sure that 3C would need to be a high end PK guy (wouldn’t hurt though) – Sheahan would be 4C knocing Hass, a non-killer, out of the lineup (unless he moves to wing).

    Would still have

    Nuge/Khaira
    Sheahan/Archie
    Russell/Granlund

    Could you imagine if we had Dubois, in a redraft I would take him over Tkachuk Even though I was screaming at the T.V to pick Keith’s kid.

  86. Victoria Oil says:

    Reja: Vegas is adding some nice dinero, Seattle is the jackpot all they have is the Sounders and the masseshave a ton of nerd cash just waiting to be spent. People are underestimating the cash flow they will bring in.

    The Mariners and the Seahawks say hi.

  87. Faustkarz says:

    Victoria Oil,

    NFL and MLB don’t count

  88. GMB3 says:

    Brad Marchand with a little lap with the player of the game trophy in Toronto, showing off the award to the home fans.

    Love him or hate him, he certainly gets people talking.

  89. dangilitis says:

    Jordan Eberle 4 A in first 7 games (after 9 pts in 8 playoff games and 37 pt season)
    Ryan Strome 5G 11A in first 17 games (following 0.5 ppg in NY last season)
    Ryan Spooner 4 pts in 11 games this season
    Sam Gagner 3 pts in 8 games this season

  90. Reja says:

    Victoria Oil: The Mariners and the Seahawks say hi.

    Yea I was just thinking no NBA to compete with in the winter. I believe the Seattle hockey franchise will be the hottest ticket in town except for 8 home games by the Seahawks.

  91. Ari says:

    deardylan,

    +1 to the power of 32

  92. geowal says:

    dangilitis:
    Jordan Eberle 4 A in first 7 games (after 9 pts in 8 playoff games and 37 pt season)
    Ryan Strome 5G 11A in first 17 games (following 0.5 ppg in NY last season)
    Ryan Spooner 4 pts in 11 games this season
    Sam Gagner 3 pts in 8 games this season

    Those are all definitely names of players followed by contextual numbers.

  93. Wilde says:

    Getting mad at the Eagles and getting mad at camera work, which is particularly demanding in Colorado’s set-up because the cameras broadcast from are seemingly just a few feet above where the coaches eye-sight is, meaning you have to very actively pan the camera, and there’s a problem with players blocking other players as well as figuring out if pucks were deflected.

    I should have mentioned this earlier, but another part of Jones coming up is that the Condors’ Dcorps – already struggling to a degree – loses their central pillar. Early morning tracking has me not far into the game, but the opening rotation showed me this:

    Lagesson – Day
    Lowe – Bouchard
    Samorukov – Kulevich

    That first pairing (it should be noted that the Condors run a top-4 / / bottom pairing setup, like the Oilers, as opposed to a 1st / / 2nd / / 3rd pairing setup) only showed up last year as a bottom pairing; the second pairing is Lowe + Rookie, which I have reservations about, especially because Bouchard is their strongest offensive driver on D and Lowe is the biggest dragger; and finally the third pairing is a 2L one and I’ve been down on Kulevich for a long time.

    By my understanding, if I’m right about Jones, we’ll see a lot of hurt here. Which, if Jones actually manages to play top-4 in the NHL on his off-side (a situation in which treading water will be enormously encouraging) will be simultaneously affirmative of my methods of analysis on the Condors, finish off a smooth narrative about Jones’ development – as opposed to Bear’s shocking&asymmetrical rise – and be very demanding of Lagesson, Bouchard and Samorukov in that order.

    I suppose that middle point could be thrown out if I drill down further on Lowe’s past two years and find more of what appears on the surface.

    ‘Cause last year, when the gap between Jones and Bear was notable, Bear’s main partner was Lowe.

  94. v4ance says:

    Wilde,

    Just spitballing here but what if Bear’s time with Lowe last year was “polishing the turd” like Sekera did with Russell?

    Basically, overcompensating for a less effective partner helped make Bear a better D in the end? Knowing that he (Bear) had to be quicker on puck retrievals and outlet passes since he might not have the support of the less fleet footed Lowe helped Bear develop. So even tho the pairing might not have looked impressive, Bear was gaining valuable experience carrying more than his normal share on the pairing.

  95. Wilde says:

    v4ance:
    Wilde,

    Just spitballing here but what if Bear’s time with Lowe last year was “polishing the turd” like Sekera did with Russell?

    Basically, overcompensating for a less effective partner helped make Bear a better D in the end?Knowing that he (Bear) had to be quicker on puck retrievals and outlet passes since he might not have the support of the less fleet footed Lowe helped Bear develop.So even tho the pairing might not have looked impressive, Bear was gaining valuable experience carrying more than his normal share on the pairing.

    I’d only go so far if I had full stats on both prior years, but that’s possible. We also can’t rule out that Bear could possibly hit the NHL even faster without him.

    The safe answer is that it didn’t end up mattering in either direction. I will say, however, that dynamic where Nurse passes to Bear to make the ultimate outlet play, is one that Bear has long been acclimated to.

    Also, didn’t mention this in the first post, but Maksimov didn’t dress

  96. dangilitis says:

    geowal,

    Well done. I suspect you can make the connection, though.
    The team is dying for more established wingers and a 3rd line center. Strome from Eberle would have been viewed as a win if brass knew what they had, and the signs were there in Edmonton.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    dangilitis:
    Jordan Eberle 4 A in first 7 games (after 9 pts in 8 playoff games and 37 pt season)
    Ryan Strome 5G 11A in first 17 games (following 0.5 ppg in NY last season)
    Ryan Spooner 4 pts in 11 games this season
    Sam Gagner 3 pts in 8 games this season

    Ryan Spooner has played in the Swiss League and the KHL this year and those numbers don’t line up with his production in Europe.

    What is the point here?

  98. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: I wonder why the players seem to be taking a harder line on escrow now when they know they can potentially resolve the issue in a few years. If I’m a UFA next year I wouldn’t want to mess with escrow now and potentially receive less money, only to see UFAs in three years hit the jackpot.

    Escrow is NOT a problem that can be solved by delay. It is a problem that only gets worse over time because the players have always invoked an escalator greater than the growth in league revenues, when league revenues are not increasing.

    The way to solve or limit the escrow problem is 1) eliminate optionality on the escalator, and force a cap dollar to be equal to a real dollar every year. OR 2) sign contracts where salaries are expressed as a percentage of the cap. (again with no optionality on the escalator.

  99. godot10 says:

    Wilde:
    Getting mad at the Eagles and getting mad at camera work, which is particularly demanding in Colorado’s set-up because the cameras broadcast from are seemingly just a few feet above where the coaches eye-sight is, meaning you have to very actively pan the camera, and there’s a problem with players blocking other players as well as figuring out if pucks were deflected.

    I should have mentioned this earlier, but another part of Jones coming up is that the Condors’ Dcorps – already struggling to a degree – loses their central pillar. Early morning tracking has me not far into the game, but the opening rotation showed me this:

    Lagesson – Day
    Lowe – Bouchard
    Samorukov – Kulevich

    That first pairing (it should be noted that the Condors run a top-4 / / bottom pairing setup, like the Oilers, as opposed to a 1st / / 2nd / / 3rd pairing setup) only showed up last year as a bottom pairing; the second pairing is Lowe + Rookie, which I have reservations about, especially because Bouchard is their strongest offensive driver on D and Lowe is the biggest dragger; and finally the third pairing is a 2L one and I’ve been down on Kulevich for a long time.

    By my understanding, if I’m right about Jones, we’ll see a lot of hurt here. Which, if Jones actually manages to play top-4 in the NHL on his off-side (a situation in which treading water will be enormously encouraging) will be simultaneously affirmative of my methods of analysis on the Condors, finish off a smooth narrative about Jones’ development – as opposed to Bear’s shocking&asymmetrical rise – and be very demanding of Lagesson, Bouchard and Samorukov in that order.

    I suppose that middle point could be thrown out if I drill down further on Lowe’s past two years and find more of what appears on the surface.

    ‘Cause last year, when the gap between Jones and Bear was notable, Bear’s main partner was Lowe.

    Dylan Simpson was the better defensemen but Keegan Lowe got the contract to stay.

  100. deardylan says:

    Ari:
    deardylan,

    +1 to the power of 32

    </blockquote

    Thanks ARI!!

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