2019-20 Game 22: Stars at Oilers

For some reason, the Edmonton Oilers are not considered worthy of the featured Saturday night Tabernac. I’m certain some of the reasoning involves past seasons but schedules can be changed and the networks have the most entertaining Canadian team playing at two p.m. local time today. Someday, the Oilers will be the feature team on the late Saturday game and I suspect someday will be soon if the team keeps winning enough games.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.

  • New Lowetide (will link):  Oilers college procurement could increase under Ken Holland
  • Jonathan Willis: A shift-by-shift analysis of Caleb Jones in his Oilers season debut
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Sometimes it’s just unstoppable’: How McDavid and the Oilers’ power play dominated the Avalanche
  • Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones and the crisis that’s looming in the Oilers’ middle distance
  • Jonathan Willis: Basically, yes, the Oilers should keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ‘forever’
  • Lowetide: Why the recall of NHL-ready Caleb Jones should benefit the Oilers in the long run
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Several drivers make the grade but Edmonton’s bus still has a few passengers
  • Daniel Nugent-BowmanFrom 4 to 97, Oilers both new and old share the stories behind their jersey numbers
  • Jonathan Willis: Could a fall trade improve the fortunes of your NHL team in 2019-20?
  • Lowetide: Analyzing Dave Tippett’s defensive usage and what the Oilers will do when Adam Larsson returns
  • Lowetide: What’s going on with the Bakersfield Condors?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shines, mad props for Leon Draisaitl and more to like as the Oilers beat the Devils
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What inexperienced defencemen like the Oilers’ Joel Persson must do to gain their coach’s confidence
  • Lowetide: Oilers are closer to having an effective second line than a year ago, but few have noticed
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The beauty of a good night’s sleep can be elusive for many NHL players
  • Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers were wise to gamble on Tomas Jurco, even though it didn’t pan out
  • Jonathan Willis: The unlikely goalie performances underpinning the Oilers’ hot start
  • Lowetide: How far away is Evan Bouchard and what role will he play with the Oilers?
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers right to wait until they’re sure before recalling Kailer Yamamoto, Tyler Benson
  • Lowetide:  Can Leon Draisaitl score more than 50 goals this season?

OILERS AFTER 22 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 7-14-1, 15 points; goal differential -12
  • Oilers in 2016: 12-8-2, 26 points; goal differential +10
  • Oilers in 2017: 8-12-2, 18 points; goal differential -14
  • Oilers in 2018: 10-10-2, 22 points; goal differential -9
  • Oilers in 2019: 13-6-2, 28 points; goal differential +13

This has 2016 written all over it, the seasons are close. After 21 games in 2016-17, Connor McDavid’s boxcars (9-18-27) were quality. This season his boxcars (14-23-37) are from another world. Leon Draisaitl’s ’16-17 (7-9-16) fades compared to his start this year (15-26-41). Nuge? 3-7-10 after 21 in 2016-17, 5-10-15 this time. Man this team would be airborne with a Tyler Pitlick (6-1-7) scoring from the bottom six.

OILERS IN NOVEMBER

  • Oilers in November 2015: 3-4-1, seven points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in November 2016: 2-5-1, five points; goal differential -9
  • Oilers in November 2017: 4-3-1, nine points; goal differential +6
  • Oilers in November 2018: 3-5-0, six points; goal differential -4
  • Oilers in November 2019: 4-2-1, nine points; goal differential +8

The 2017 team caught fire during that month, Connor McDavid was 6-14-20 and Nuge 5-7-12. Leon 6-6-12. Jordan Eberle went 8-1-9 for the NY Islanders that month, while Ryan Strome posted 3-4-7 in Edmonton. Oilers could use either man this afternoon.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

  • On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
  • At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 4-2-1, 9 points after seven games

The Dallas Stars are on fire these days, 8-1-1 in the last 10. Edmonton is 5-4-1 in the last 10 but quality (7-2-1) at home this year. I imagine Koskinen starts and Jones sees another game.

OILERS 2019-20

One of the things I’ve been paying close attention to this year is goal differentials (five-on-five) for the team’s centers. This is important stuff, because it’s an extension of McDavid on and off, but with the added advantage of seeing where on the roster progress is being made:

  1. Connor McDavid 24-13 +11
  2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 12-8 +4
  3. Gaetan Haas 3-4 -1
  4. Riley Sheahan 0-9 -9
  5. Colby Cave 1-2 -1

Seems we have some improvement with the Haas group but the Sheahan trio continues to be a drag. Let’s check on the blue:

  1. Matt Benning 14-5 +9
  2. Kris Russell 10-5 +5
  3. Oscar Klefbom 14-12 +2
  4. Joel Persson 7-7 0
  5. Darnell Nurse 18-22 -4
  6. Ethan Bear 17-23 -6

About what one might expect, Adam Larsson’s return should help more than one pairing.

I don’t know what to expect from today. In the past this would be a loss. Afternoon game, Dallas Stars, I’d predict a fluke goal early and then some nasty business that leaves the Oilers shorthanded and eventually down 2-0. A push results in a goal but a mid-third goal would put things to bed. This Oilers team isn’t following the November script. We wait.

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622 Responses to "2019-20 Game 22: Stars at Oilers"

« Older Comments
  1. Harpers Hair says:

    JimmyV1965: I might take you up on that. I like the Yotes, but not as much as you and WG. Today was their first regulation win since their first game in November.They’ve been outshot every game but two. On the other hand, they’re a good team, they’re only 3 pts behind us and they play one more game than us from here until the end of the month. It will likely come down to the head to head match Nov. 24. Let me think about it. We are agreed though that they have to be ahead of the Oil. Not tied. What are the stakes?

    A Woodguy is $99.

  2. oilersfan says:

    How the hell did the refs not blow the play dead when Calvert was lying there half dead when the puck hit him in the face?

  3. Harpers Hair says:

    oilersfan:
    How the hell did the refs not blow the play dead when Calvert was lying there half dead when the puck hit him in the face?

    It’s the rules.

  4. Younger Oil says:

    Aren’t head injuries supposed to be whistled down immediately?

    If not, that really needs to change, and if so, that ref needs to be fired immediately.

  5. Gerta Rauss says:

    Mackinnon makes short work of the Canucks in OT

    wow

  6. Harpers Hair says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Mackinnon makes short work of the Canucks in OT

    wow

    Makar with 4 points.

  7. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: So,$300..
    You’re on.

    I’ll go $ 10000 Oilers win the cup before the mighty Coyotes. I have a feeling you know this bet will play out sooner than later.

  8. Harpers Hair says:

    Reja: I’ll go$ 10000 Oilers win the cup before the mighty Coyotes. I have a feeling you know this bet will play out sooner than later.

    You’re a fraud.
    Piss off.

  9. oilersfan says:

    HH as much as you irritate me I do find some of your posts very witty and intelligent

    You were commenting earlier about having to get up to go pee in the night

    I was having similar issues and went to get my prostate checked and had an ultrasound done and nothing was wrong anywhere.

    I started getting a chiropractics adjustment twice a week for my hips, stretch for 10-15 minutes per day and can usually either sleep through the night or only have to get up once

    Something somewhere inside me was pressuring my bladder when I laid down for any length of time and I really think this stretching really helps

    My chiropractor says if everybody went to yoga twice a week starting in their 30 s he would be out of business

  10. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: You’re a fraud.
    Piss off.

    There’s a few lawyers on this site that might be willing to write up this contract and since the Oilers have done you so wrong it shouldn’t be a problem for you.

  11. Side says:

    Reja: There’s a few lawyers on this site that might be willing to write up this contract and since the Oilers have done you so wrong it shouldn’t be a problem for you.

    It would be great if you two did agree to this bet and you won, then donated the $10 000 to Daryl Katz on HH’s behalf.

  12. Harpers Hair says:

    oilersfan:
    HH as much as you irritate me I do find some of your posts very witty and intelligent

    You were commenting earlier about having to get up to go pee in the night

    I was having similar issues and went to get my prostate checked and had an ultrasound done and nothing was wrong anywhere.

    I started getting a chiropractics adjustment twice a week for my hips, stretch for 10-15 minutes per day and can usually either sleep through the night or only have to get up once

    Something somewhere inside me was pressuring my bladder when I laid down for any length of time and I really think this stretching really helps

    My chiropractor says if everybody went to yoga twice a week starting in their 30 s he would be out of business

    Thanks for that but as you get into your 60s or 70s things start to break down.

    It’s just a part of getting old but you accept it.

    There are also benefits to aging but they are far more subtle.

  13. Harpers Hair says:

    Cale Makar is mature beyond his years.
    You really don’t notice him all that much but he ends the game with four points.
    Very special.

  14. Munny says:

    treevojo,

    With regards to VOR…

    He hasn’t posted in months.

    I’ve been worried. His health wasn’t great. And he wasn’t among the youngest here.

    I really do hope he is okay.

  15. Munny says:

    Is it just me or do overtime losses seem to elicit more emotion?

  16. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny:
    treevojo,

    With regards to VOR…

    He hasn’t posted in months.

    I’ve been worried. His health wasn’t great.And he wasn’t among the youngest here.

    I really do hope he is okay.

    He said he was only going to post his stuff for a while and then wouldn’t be able to.
    Perhaps he’s been hired by a team?

  17. JimmyV1965 says:

    I’ll take that bet HH. Honestly, I think it’s a sucker bet on your part because if the Oil go 3-3, the Yotes have to go 5-2. But the Oil are heading out on a brutal road trip and if I bet on the Oil, they’re almost certain not to cover. Damn!!! Maybe we can donate it to charity or the LT fund.

  18. Harpers Hair says:

    JimmyV1965:
    I’ll take that bet HH. Honestly, I think it’s a sucker bet on your part because if the Oil go 3-3, the Yotes have to go 5-2. But the Oil are heading out on a brutal road trip and if I bet on the Oil, they’re almost certain not to cover. Damn!!! Maybe we can donate it to charity or the LT fund.

    Okay.
    Just to be clear.
    I’m betting the Coyotes will be ahead of the Oilers in the standings as of November 30.
    No matter how this turns out, you get to decide who gets the proceeds.
    Good luck and don’t look at the schedule.😝

  19. Side says:

    Harpers Hair: Okay.
    Just to be clear.
    I’m betting the Coyotes will be ahead of the Oilers in the standings as of November 30.
    No matter how this turns out, you get to decide who gets the proceeds.
    Good luck and don’t look at the schedule.

    Ahead in the standings and not by points percentage?

    You change your criteria of what makes a team better faster than you change who your favourite team is.

  20. JimmyV1965 says:

    Harpers Hair: Okay.
    Just to be clear.
    I’m betting the Coyotes will be ahead of the Oilers in the standings as of November 30.
    No matter how this turns out, you get to decide who gets the proceeds.
    Good luck and don’t look at the schedule.

    Agreed. I looked at the sked already. It’s ugly for the Oil and roses for the Yotes, but I’ve got to have faith. We’ll discuss where the proceeds go later.

    Cheers.

  21. Wilde says:

    Have all of my shot data from Friday and Saturday’s games locked in-

    – Gambardella coming back cold, his work on the Gamba – Malone – Yama line in the first bit of the season left his shot impacts and such, but two poor games upon return brings his averages down below Yamamoto’s in the areas that they were higher. That line was reunited in the late 2nd in last night’s game.

    – Speaking of Yamamoto, he has 15 drawn penalties in 15 games now. Fell behind by November 8th and then drew three, one, two in the last three games. It’d matter much more if the powerplay was nearly as strong as its personnel. Needs more analysis, but my ideological bias has me wondering if they aren’t misusing Bouchard’s shot

    – We’ll see, but it’s starting to look like Bouchard might be the 1D on this team now. By the pseudo-offensive metric Game Score, he’s up where Jones left his (0.72 per game to 0.77 per game) but Jones was two cuts above Bouchard in terms of defending, for obvious reasons. I’ll have to lean on Mr. Wheat’s time on ice and entries-against numbers to assist in this assessment.

    – Espo and Lowe are still bothering me. I’ll never stop posting about it.

    – Josh Currie is an underrated option for a recall if the Oilers bottom six continues to absolutely eat shit. You can split Currie’s AHL career, now, into Fall 2018-present, where instead of being a ~20 goal scorer in a full season, he’s more of a half-a-goal-a-game guy now. Went 27 on 54 games last year, and is 7 on 15 games this year. That’s during the great scoring drought that’s occurring – he’s just hammering it. Highest iCF/game by a wide margin, has 16 shot attempts in the last two games.

    – Yarcobello continues to be his speedy, right-shot centre self at clips exceeding many of the other depth players that get more opportunities *thinking emoji*

    – Samorukov appears to be getting more touches, now. It’s a mixed bag. He’s not out there nearly as much as when I’ve been evaluating past Condors D-men, being as he’s younger/not named Evan Bouchard, so there’d need to be a tape compilation to actually watch his game hard enough to make an assessment. I’ve been meaning to compare him to Kulevich in the latter half of the year because you’re probably going to have to pass a guy like that (or on your way) pretty quickly if you’re going anywhere at all, but it probably won’t be a role-swap outright if Jay thinks it’s happened.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Makar with 4 points.

    Is he a prospect?

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