The Edmonton Oilers embark on an important road trip tonight. By the time the team plays a home game again, we’ll have reached American Thanksgiving. If Edmonton is in a playoff spot on that day, there’s a good chance we’ll see playoff games come the spring. This is a tough trip with a major prize at the end.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Joel Persson’s demotion highlights difficult adjustment for Oilers’ ‘European showtime’ trio
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Evaluating the Oilers’ readiness for the 2021 Seattle expansion draft
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
- Lowetide: Oilers’ college procurement could increase under Ken Holland
- Jonathan Willis: A shift-by-shift analysis of Caleb Jones in his Oilers season debut
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Sometimes it’s just unstoppable’: How McDavid and the Oilers’ power play dominated the Avalanche
- Jonathan Willis: Darnell Nurse, Caleb Jones and the crisis that’s looming in the Oilers’ middle distance
- Jonathan Willis: Basically, yes, the Oilers should keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ‘forever’
- Lowetide: Why the recall of NHL-ready Caleb Jones should benefit the Oilers in the long run
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Report Cards: Several drivers make the grade but Edmonton’s bus still has a few passengers
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: From 4 to 97, Oilers both new and old share the stories behind their jersey numbers
- Jonathan Willis: Could a fall trade improve the fortunes of your NHL team in 2019-20?
- Lowetide: Analyzing Dave Tippett’s defensive usage and what the Oilers will do when Adam Larsson returns
- Lowetide: What’s going on with the Bakersfield Condors?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins shines, mad props for Leon Draisaitl and more to like as the Oilers beat the Devils
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: What inexperienced defencemen like the Oilers’ Joel Persson must do to gain their coach’s confidence
- Lowetide: Oilers are closer to having an effective second line than a year ago, but few have noticed
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The beauty of a good night’s sleep can be elusive for many NHL players
OILERS AFTER 23 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 7-14-2, 16 points; goal differential -13
- Oilers in 2016: 12-9-2, 26 points; goal differential +9
- Oilers in 2017: 8-13-2, 18 points; goal differential -16
- Oilers in 2018: 10-11-2, 22 points; goal differential -12
- Oilers in 2019: 13-6-3, 29 points; goal differential +12
A point tonight gets Edmonton to 30 points and keeps the team on pace for a 100-point plus campaign. We can talk about saves, penalty kill, McDavid-Draisaitl, Tippett or any number of reasons. Bottom line is that a more veteran team, familiar with current role, is winning more than they’re losing. A lesson there.
OILERS IN NOVEMBER
- Oilers in November 2015: 3-5-1, seven points; goal differential -2
- Oilers in November 2016: 2-6-1, five points; goal differential -11
- Oilers in November 2017: 4-4-1, nine points; goal differential +3
- Oilers in November 2018: 3-6-0, six points; goal differential -7
- Oilers in November 2019: 4-2-2, 10 points; goal differential +7
I remain amazed by just how much an eight or nine game glimpse can tell us about a team. Bill James always said the first 10 games of a baseball season (162 games in length) were important, that goes double for hockey (82 games). Any 10-game stretch tells you a lot. There are two playoff teams in this photo.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM NOVEMBER
- On the road to: PIT (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: ARI, STL, NJD (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-1)
- On the road to: ANA, SJS (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: COL, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
- On the road to: SJS, LAK, VEG, ARI, COL (Expected 2-3-0)
- At home to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Current results: 4-2-2, 10 points in 8 games
The five games on this road trip are going to be a major test for the Oilers. The team’s current record against the Pacific Division (3-1-1) is pristine, how long will it remain that way?
OILERS 2019-20
Two men are driving the offense at a ridiculous, Phil Esposito in 1970-71 levels. I don’t think there’s much that can be said about it, to be honest. I predicted the No. 1 line would score 96 goals in my reasonable expectations series. Doing the math on that total over 82 games, we should expect the Oilers top line to score 26 goals in 22 games. The trio stands at 37 goals.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on the Lowdown, we get started at 10, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will help tee up tonight’s game in San Jose, Andrew Peard will call in from the road with an Oil Kings update and Josh Lewenberg from TSN will discuss his ‘top 25 greatest Raptors in franchise history’ at 11:25. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!!
Agreed. But the huge issues are whittling down.
A couple of months ago that list also included: a 2RD, decent goaltending and the PK.
Fun start to the season.
Idk where you should put them, but I know where I’d like to ram them
That scenario is beyond any I’ve dreamed up. Beautiful! Glory indeed.
Oh he’s real alright,
But I’m strictly an eye test guy, so not worth much.
He’s a perfect 3rd pairing guy now, might even grow into the Adam Larrson hole if he continues to improve & has an Ethan Bear like offseason next summer
Johnny Goodrow is being considered for trade by many a Flames fan ATM, just sayin
#1 PP
#3 PK
Niiice.
Archie Rieder won’t be with us for long based on how he played last night.
From October 3, 2018 to February 6th, 2019:
Draisaitl: 53, 31-34-65 [1.23]
McDavid: 52, 31-47-78 [1.50]
MacKinnon: 52, 27-45-72 [1.38]
Pettersson: 43, 24-23-47 [1.09]
From February 7th to April 7th, 2019:
Draisaitl: 29, 19-21-40 [1.38] +0.15
McDavid: 26, 10-28-38 [1.46] -0.04
MacKinnon: 30, 14-13-27 [0.90] -0.48
Pettersson: 28, 4-15-19 [0.68] -0.41
Where should I put the goalposts now, sir?
Does not have to be Hall but the Oilers need a Hall like player to fill the gap in between Drai and RNH if they are to contend.
When Ovechkin outscored Malkin and Crosby ( 6 points to 3 points combined) in the 16 playoff series over 7 games, it was Kessel ( 6 points) driving the 3rd line that won the series for the Pens
All the winning teams have those drivers.
Oilers have the 2 best drivers in the game, but they will need help.
That need maybe surpassing the 3rd line C gig…maybe….maybe not but it’s a huge issue.
He’s gonna blow away his career high season this year if he keeps this up. On pace for 61 points currently, well above the 38 he posted in 16-17.
Yep, he’s having a great year. Tied for 7th in scoring among defensemen while shooting a career low 1.9%. Just wait for the regression…
He leads the league is TOI, too, 25:55 per game.
I was pro Chia in the beginning and remember arguing about him with you then. You were definitely right about him back then.
But the team is not in shambles. 1st place in the division. 5th overall.
-best duo in the league.
– good secondary/complimentary scoring coming from Nuge, Neal and Kassian
– goaltending has been great
-the D led by Klefbom, Nurse and Bear have been very good. Russell and Benning on the 3rd pair are probably among the best 3 pairs in the league.
-the team is winning, so the coach looks good so far.
the issues on the team
-is not having another driver on the second line. I do think if the Oilers play a team in the playoffs that can shut down the 1st line, the Oilers have no hope in hell in winning. They need someone better than Nuge on the second line, so they can have newguy-nuge-neal.
-depth ( bottom 6) has been putrid, but have shown signs of life lately. The guys here are not signed long term. This should be the easiest part of the roster to fix
No long term bad contracts other than Neal. He wont cover the bet over the length of the contract but he has been close to full value so far ( one helluva trade by Holland here)
The Oilers have some nice assets ( Jones, Broberg, Bouchard, Lavoie, 2020 1st) that will help the team either through trade or development in the next few years. And none of the core players are exiting their prime yet.
I wont disagree that the Avs future looks bright but *puts on Oilers googles* so does the Oilers future
Kinger_Oil.redux,
I’d like to quickly circle back on our conversation from earlier.
On the whole we agree more than we disagree re: signing/trading for high priced UFAs but I’d like to clarify my points a bit.
I think a lot of fog is in place on these sorts of deal/ideas of such deals because of the Leafs and Tavares. But as we both have noted before that was strange for a number of reasons a) added to a position of strength, b) set the going rate for high priced forward contracts on a team and c) inexplicably was done before the signing of all THREE home grown RFA forwards further compounding the problem of b.
A signing of say Taylor Hall (I prefer trying to land Ehlers but the cost would be dear) shares none of those traits and if Leon keeps up his play could even potentially nullify the Hart premium likely at play.
Woodguy also pointed out that given the perfectly reasonable expectation of both a) Seattle and b) new US TV deal, the cap will in fact increase by meaningful figures in two years time you have one year of trickery to figure that cap number out and after that the math gets much easier (especially given the D pipeline which could also clear up some space perhaps).
Point being signing an impact forward can cripple your team cap wise Yes 100%, but if done astutely it appears that its also a necessary ingredient to winning not one but multiple cups in a given period of time if your team is otherwise well constructed.
Its still too early to contemplate such things though, they need to get through this road trip and into the abbreviated rest period here (another sub-20 min. 5v5 game for Leon and Drai, you’re almost going back to the 16/17 season to see them playing this little over this many games).
In a perfect world here’s what I would like to see. Calgary panics, trades Gaudreau to the Devils for Hall and 1st but Hall waffles on signing the extension. Calgary fails to improve, misses the playoffs and the Oilers win a round or two. In the offseason McDavid and Nuge pay a visit to Taylor and ask him how many Cups he wants to win and because Leon picks up the Selke and finishes 2nd in Hart voting behind McDavid, Hall signs the Drai contract for 6 years at $8.5. Glory ensues.
New for The Athletic Oilers No. 2 prospect: Philip Broberg
https://theathletic.com/1390067/2019/11/20/lowetide-oilers-no-2-prospect-winter-2019-philip-broberg/
Just about. He got on at 18:18 and scored at 19:45, so 87 seconds.
#stonehands
Any non-Caleb Jones partisans (i.e. people who aren’t me) have any idea whether or not he’s real?
No, “dropped off a cliff” is what MacKinnon and Pettersson did last season.
First 41 games:
McDavid: 40, 23-38-61 [1.53 P/GP]
Draisaitl: 41, 22-29-51 [1.24]
MacKinnon: 41, 24-36-60 [1.46]
Pettersson: 35, 19-20-39 [1.11]
Last 41 games:
McDavid: 38, 18-37-55 [1.45] -0.08
Draisaitl: 41, 28-26-54 [1.32] +0.08
MacKinnon: 41, 17-22-39 [0.95] -0.51
Pettersson: 36, 9-18-27 [0.75] -0.36
– three pages of LT on gameday! Didn’t even have to look up the score to know we had won! A few more posters peeking out head wondering if this team is legit
– Normalize v regression. Consensus and conventional wisdom dissipates only in the rear view mirror
hunter1909,
I understand that’s it’s a contact sport. Vlasic’s check was fine.
Him holding onto McDavid after the check and one-arm slamming him onto the ice was not.
A stick to Benning’s ear was also not fine.
Speaking of ‘not pretty’ and ‘being a dick’, a person unable to admit when they’ve been proven to be objectively wrong is both those things. No matter what Tuesday you pick in February, Draisaitl will still have scored 23 points in 14 games in March and 4 points in 4 games in April.
Yet more evidence to show how unreliable memory is.
Tippet’s doing a masterful coaching job this season. He’s turned a collection of perennial losers into winners.
It’s a contact sport.
Anyway Sharks came out trying to intimidate the Oilers who instead of rolling over started scoring and killing the Shark’s dreams of a 7th straight win. By the end of the game the message was clear which team was superior and it wasn’t the Sharks.
It looks like Oilers fans will have to get used to the idea of having a first place, dominating NHL team again.
Finally a big game the Oilers took part in, with a real good team with lots of previous success.
Then they shocked everyone and won in a canter.
Nurse stood out particularly. Mean and nasty. McDavid’s starting to enter Gretzky territory what with the way he and Draisaitl are tearing the NHL up.
PS: for fun tuned into last 10 minutes of the Flames debacle. Then as if to rub it in further, Neal scored later on.
The Av’s kinda of remind me of the a hawks when they were winning except for toughness and goaltending. Your team isn’t winning 16 playoff games without those two traits.
Professor Q,
California
Knows how to ref it.
City of Culprits.
I know Gary Bettmannnn
He does this a lot!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwFIiXBt36U
I had fallen asleep so I missed the game, but fan, the team looked strong.
Also, what the heck were the refs doing? Yes, I’ll complain about the refs even during a strong victory.
Kane pulls a Kassian on Benning with no call or review. And also no call on that play in the second where Vlasic took down McDavid with a freaking wrestling slam? I’m sure there were more. San Jose was mad and chippy all game (the take down of Russell etc.), so I don’t doubt things got out of hand at times.
Likely culprits being Vlasic, Dillon, Karlsson, Karlsson, Goodrow, Kane, etc.
Ironically our commentators explained the Dillon Interference penalty on Draisaitl was due to him taking his arm off the stick and holding Draisaitl.
“The ref will call it all the time!”
Except when it’s on McDavid.
Oilers are the best team.
Straight to the cup LT.
Don’t worry. Easy rings.
You are wrong,
The numbers prove it.
Be a man and admit it.
I stated from day one a top 10 PP and PK gets us in the show. Tippett said fuk the top 10 I want top 5 for both which may has never occurred in the history of the NHL.
We lost another Reider tonght.
RIP Granny Reider
Only Archie, Sheahan and PRusty Reider left.
I like how in the subsequent replays of Benning getting Barry Bonds’d, there are 2 refs staring at what happened and somehow concluded it was okay.
NHL reffing truly is awful.
Here are the splits for March and April:
Draisaitl: 18, 11-16-27, 1.5 PPG
McDavid: 18, 8-21-29, 1.61 PPG
EDIT: I don’t have the splits readily available for mid-February until the end of the season, but assume it wouldn’t be dramatically different. Plus, the last quarter of the season should be where the teams are cracking down the most defensively, no?
Second half is a lot different than 2 months though.
I’m clarifying what you are talking about as I heard you keep posters grounded and make people truly know what they are talking about before engaging in discussion with you about it.
Agreed, but Haas might be faster, and we have Jurco.
Man, Lucic WISHED he hit that cliff when he turned 30…
Good grief…don’t be a dick.
It was from a Tuesday in February to a Wednesday in April.
Little got dinged in the ear by an Ehlers shot and suffered vertigo so good call.
Is it the last half of the season or the last two.months?
I agree except it’s still early on Nygard and he has much needed speed.
I’m guessing Benning blew an ear-drum…judging by his reaction….looked like vertigo in the immediate aftermath.
So much wrong here I won’t even answer.
Of the 3 mature rookie Euros, Haas, by my eye, is by far the most likely to have an NHL career…which is odd because he was the least hyped of the 3. I would flush Nygaard down the toilet, and keep Persson around for depth / AHL development.
History is full of one line playoff teams with a hot goalie making it past the first round. Some have even made it past the second.
I suppose all coaches of teams that lose in the first round are just dumb, right?
I like how the goalposts for criticism have shifted from “no chance for playoffs at all” to “unsustainable hot streak” to “well, they can’t make it all the way to the Cup Finals”.
That’s a promising direction for the arrow.
(Also, this is a two line team….)
Try the last two months of the season.
It wasn’t pretty.
I think so.
I can’t see any of the also rans catching them at this point.
If I had to call it right now…
PACIFIC.
Arizona
Edmonton
Vegas
CENTRAL
Dallas
Colorado
St. Louis
WILD CARD
Vancouver
Nashville
But many things can go wrong on the way to Grandma’s house.
We’ll see.
Munny,
Nurse-Bear were awesome tonight.
Eye test and the fancies aligned.
TOI
20:48 for Drai
20:55 for Connor
both with 3 minutes PP time.
Drai only saw 8 seconds of PK.
KBomb led defensemen with an incredible 31:38 of quality minute-munching. He was rightly the second star.
Followed by 23:47 for Bear and 24:01 for Nurse, although Bear had 3 more shifts.
Harpers Hair,
Isn’t NSH coming off a PDO heater?