Let’s say you attend tonight’s game and shortly after entering the arena, you are whisked away to a large boardroom the size of a football field. Boardroom has an enormous table, 300 chairs, all but one of them filled. Seated are the entire Edmonton Oilers management group since Larry Gordon, plus guys like Bob Falkenberg and Norm Ullman. People are smoking! There’s an ashtray, and an old ‘eat at Joe’s’ neon sign from the 60’s on the wall. Stubby beer bottles. Three guys clearly have injuries from the war. One of the war guys, you can’t see his eyes but he keeps yelling “Jayco!” and you don’t know if he’s doing roll call or trying to order a recreational vehicle. Seriously, it’s like a David Lynch dream sequence.
A man who looks vaguely like Petr Hemsky invites you to sit down, and then a man who looks just like Dave Semenko at 21 towers over you and says: “Name the six best wingers available to the Oilers right now, excluding the names Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins” and then smiles, says “no pressure” and sits down. Val Fonteyne smiles, takes out a package of Adams Wild Strawberry gum and pops two sticks in his mouth. You wish you could get the hell out of here but for some reason the exit door no longer exists. Plus the lights are flickering. Barton Fink slams his hand on the table, and, sweating profusely, says “let’s go!” while looking straight at you. So. What do you say?
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. There is also a Christmas gift offer here.
- New Lowetide: Analyzing the Oilers’ latest roster shuffle and the defencemen involved
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
- Minnia Feng: Unsolicited advice for the Oilers: Chinese proverbs edition
- Jonathan Willis: Are the Oilers good now? Subtle changes add up to sustainable gain
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Mikko Koskinen is seizing his opportunity to take over the Oilers’ crease
- Lowetide: Eight assets the Oilers could use to acquire Taylor Hall
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ farm team recalls invaluable in playoff seasons and paying off in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Oilers deployment shuffle will continue with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins still sidelined
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: One-on-one with Ken Holland, who is facing his first deadline in the Jesse Puljujarvi saga
- Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers go short or long term on Ethan Bear’s next contract?
- Lowetide: The 2010s: Revisiting the Connor McDavid draft lottery — the day the earth stood still in Edmonton
- Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Unveiling the Oilers all-decade team
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: The 2010s: What went wrong with Nail Yakupov? How the No. 1 pick became the decade’s biggest NHL draft bust
- Jonathan Willis: The 2010s: Ranking a decade’s worth of Oilers coaches
- Lowetide: Why Dave Tippett’s deployment is a sign the Oilers need a No. 3 centre
- Jonathan Willis: A list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: Woodcroft on Benson’s ‘gift,’ the next step for Bouchard and acting like a proud parent watching the Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 30 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015: 13-15-2, 28 points; goal differential -8
- Oilers in 2016: 14-11-5, 33 points; goal differential +5
- Oilers in 2017: 12-16-2, 26 points; goal differential -11
- Oilers in 2018: 16-12-2, 34 points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in 2019: 17-9-3, 37 points; goal differential +8
The 2016 team is two wins behind the current group and last year’s team is closer than the 2016 group. Klefbom and Russell 2018 are about to get hurt and the Oilers will deploy Jason Garrison and Caleb Jones for a time and then trade for Brandon Manning and Alexander Petrovic. After that, it will be 2016 versus 2019 for the rest of the season.
OILERS IN DECEMBER
- Oilers in December 2015: 2-0-0, four points; goal differential +1
- Oilers in December 2016: 2-0-0, four points; goal differential +4
- Oilers in December 2017: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in December 2018: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential -1
- Oilers in December 2019: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +1
The 2016 team posted a strong December (7-2-4) and the Oilers this season have a schedule that should allow a fast start. All these injuries are going to have an impact, though.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0)
- At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0)
- On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0)
- At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1)
- At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
- Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
- Current results: 1-0-0, 2 points in 1 game
My prediction has the team going 4-1-1 to start the month before a 2-5-1 finish balances the month. I know that won’t happen but a fast train start is more than plausible.
WHAT DO YOU SAY?
What would your answer be? All those old farts staring at you, what do you say? Here’s my list.
James Neal. Easily the most talented of the pure wingers, I would run him LW with McDavid and heavily on the power play. His five-on-five scoring rates have not recovered this season, time with the captain should fix that issue.
Zack Kassian. He has been a terrific winger on the top line and there’s zero reason to move him. The back injury is a concern but right now he appears headed for a 20-goal season.
Jujhar Khaira. I would run him with Leon Draisaitl, partly because he is averaging .57 goals per 60 at five-on-five over the last three seasons. He needs to be more consistent but that’s a good number. Kassian is .76, Neal is .73, Nuge is .72 per 60 over the last three seasons at the discipline. Since 2017-18, Khaira has scored 5-4-9 with Leon in 227 minutes (2.37 per 60) five-on-five. I’ll try the big man here.
Joakim Nygard. He hasn’t scored much yet but he’s burner and his five-on-five shots per 60 is 9.29, which leads all forwards. I’d put him with Leon on RW and see how they shine.
Tyler Benson. I think it’s time and if you ran him with RNH on a No. 3 line then easing Benson into the NHL is a workable task. I like the idea.
Josh Archibald. I chose him because he brings good footspeed and his five on five goals per 60 over the last three seasons is .68 per 60. That’s a good rate. Archibald is also fearless, and could be a nice style match for Benson and Nuge.
I considered Kailer Yamamoto for the McDavid line but I think he needs to hammer the AHL and stay healthy for a few months. I also considered Markus Granlund, Gaetan Haas, Sam Gagner, Patrick Russell and Alex Chiasson but wanted speed and thought Haas might be best deployed with Granlund and Russell.
I think the defensive pairings will go Nurse-Bear, Klefbom-Persson and Russell-Larsson, but there’s every chance Larsson and Persson flip and we see the two veteran Swedes together. Oscar hasn’t been able to find a suitable dance partner since opening night (all numbers five on five and NST).
- Klefbom-Russell: 145 minutes, 40 percent Corsi; 42 percent shot share; 3-3 goals.
- Klefbom-Persson: 137 minutes, 46 percent Corsi; 42 percent shot share; 7-7 goals.
- Klefbom-Jones: 94 minutes, 49 percent Corsi; 47 percent shot share; 4-7 goals.
- Klefbom-Bear: 54 minutes, 54 percent Corsi; 58 percent shot share; 3-2 goals.
- Klefbom-Benning: 40 minutes, 48 percent Corsi; 47 percent shot share; 2-3 goals.
- Klefbom-Larsson: 38 minutes, 45 percent Corsi; 50 percent shot share; 1-2 goals.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will preview the game against the Senators, talk Taylor Hall and we’ll discuss Matt Benning’s future. Joe Osborne from OddsShark will join us at 11 to talk NFL weekend and about the coaching carousel. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Can’t. Thems the rules. You clearly have your own opinion about it and nothing I say is going to change that, I get it. I will continue to believe that with a 30 goal season under his belt Neal’s contract will no longer be immovable. $2 – 3M and a 3rd coming back and someone will do it. Remember, it wasn’t long ago we all thought Lucic would require major assets to move…
Yep. That makes perfect sense.
Let’s project Neals scoring numbers from his 20’s to continue to be his scoring numbers through his early 30’s. He is an elite skater after all. Lol.
I’m sure every GM is salivating over adding him for 3 more years at 5.75 million???
I’m not checking back here but you can continue to argue this in the next thread.
If you think that’s a good idea.
Learn to read.
In the 7 years prior to his disastrous CGY season, Neal scored 190 goals, 14th most in the NHL. More than Tarasenko, Skinner, E Kane and JVR – all guys who get paid for goal production. His 0.41 G/GP over that timeframe has him tied for 9th among players that have played at least 2 seasons. He’s one of the leagues best and most consistent goal scorers. I’m thinking that if he can score 30 this year old school GM’s will see last year as an aberration. They won’t ignore it entirely and thus there will be some cap coming back, but I think there are GM’s out there who are willing to pay $3M + 3M + 5.75M for a 20+ goal scorer.
Charming.
I guess you are subtracting Woods salary from Neals to get to 3 million? Fair point, but you left out the extra year on Neals contract.
Do you think Neal is worth the extra 2 years at 3 million and 1 year at 5.75 million?
If so, may God install you as the New Jersey GM.
Oh, and learn to communicate.
Three million.
Three years.
Learn to count.
Every team has games like this, the key is to not do it frequently. We seem to be on a yo-yo of up and down performances.
Hopefully Tippett has lots of ammo from the video from last night and we go on a run at home.
verdad2.0,
Give it a rest already. We all got your point 20 posts ago. What’s the record for most posts in 10 hours?
Someone give this poster a snickers.
The Oilers are absolutely wretched
And Holland does not care
70% of this roster would not be on any other NHL roster
Holland has one accomplishment – Neal
Everything else pure crap
But worst is inaction
Incompetent
Waivinf Larsson this morning would be obvious if he was serious about accountability
And the goalies , they will crucify this team
Koskinen is horrid, more than anyone else cost this game against Ottawa
The season is over
Shero spent 5 million on Simmonds for 1 year. If he trades for Neal he’ll be spending 5.75 million for 4 years.
That is a HUGE difference.
This.
Oilers had 10 Grade A chances in the first to ZERO for the visiting team.
Only 1 goal to show for it and the visitors realize they have another crack at this.
Enter Koskie and 2 brutal goals in 11 seconds and the home team never recovers.
It was “one of those games” folks.
Better not take L.A. lightly, They are always game and are sporting some nice fancies.
I’ve moved on and will see y’all tomorrow on the gameday thread.
This begs the question:
why on earth would you want to get rid of a 30 goal scorer ?
Shero just spent $5M on Wayne Simmonds looking for exactly the player that James Neal is. I think he’d be willing to look at spending $3M on Neal next summer if Simmonds continues to suck. And I think he might even add a pick to make it happen – if Neal proves that he’s ‘back’ with a 30 goal campaign.
Yes, exactly. Five years times three million dollars.
Five years is better for the player than 7 or 8, as he’ll be 28 at the end of the deal and has an opportunity to sign another long-term contract. If he signs until 30 (7 years) or 31 (8 years), he no longer has another payday coming, it’ll be short-term deals until he’s done.
BornInAGretzkyJersey,
Ya I generally agree but this isn’t exactly an isolated game. Klefbom served up another turdburger against Colorado a week ago.
He’s a good dman, no doubt, but part of being a great dman is realizing you can’t make every play all the time. He had a tough night, spilled milk happens, nothing that can’t be fixed.
As mentioned in my other post it’s tough to win when you’re goalie and two of your three best players serve up lemons.
I had a feeling this was going to happen tonight, told a colleague about it and everything, even when they’re having a good year they are still slump busters on occasion.
Le sigh, oh well, into LA
Admiral Ackbar,
It’s a trap… game.
We lost at the game they call Goalie tonight. Did pretty shitty at Bounce too, And we couldn’t win at Pinch to save our lives.
The dominance in the 1st hurt us. Because the Sens made it look like we didn’t have to try to win. Because the sucky goals didn’t just let the wind out of those sails, it ripped the sails down and shredded them. Because we probably should’ve been up 3-0 already.
LT might be giving us the Casey Stengel quote tomorrow. This one didn’t start like it was one of the 50 you’re gonna lose no matter what, but there was something fatalistic about the outcome nonetheless.
No truer words were ever spoken.
If there is any silver lining to this loss, it’s that Holland should now know exactly how important Nuge and Kassian are to this team. If he was thinking of trading either of them, those thoughts should have been squashed tonight. Those two make the team hum when McD and Drai are not quite feeling it.
My two cents after watching the game live:
– Larsson and Klefbom do NOT play well together anymore. Klefbom seems to try and do too much when playing with Larsson (and failing at it). I don’t know what the answer is when it comes to Larsson, but it would probably be in Holland’s best interests to keep him on the 3rd pair until he gets the kinks out. I think he would work well with Jones or Lagesson to tell you the truth. But until Russell gets moved, that ain’t happening.
– Kris Russell’s play appears way better in in person than on tv. Persson is pretty meh. Couldn’t get much of a read on him. Probably a good thing.
– Nurse and Bear are the goods. Anyone who thinks Nurse should be traded had lost their marbles! And Bear. man he looks… dreamy.
– Neal is faster than I thought. Everyone says he has slow boots, but he’s definitely faster than people think.
– Gagner and Khaira were doing good work for most of the game. Even when nothing was rhyming.
– Patrick Russell is… slow. Real Slow. But he does seem to chase the puck well.
– Granlund, Archibald, Nygard and Sheahan didn’t get much done. They seemed to be just “taking up time”. Chiasson did have a couple good looks, but was otherwise mostly ineffective
– Draisaitl was a beast in the 1st period, and probably the Oilers best player tonight. He always seemed to be pushing the play,
– McDavid is… fast! It’s unfortunate that the bounces weren’t going our way. He seemed to lose his mojo in the third period (like pretty much the entire team)
– Koskinen. Was. Terrible. Smith not much better. Goalering in my mind was the main culprit for tonight’s loss. After that, lack of forward depth. Ottawa seemed pretty content to play a trap-like game after going up 3-1.
verdad2.0,
You must be fun at parties.
There’s the reminder just how bad this team can be. Fine, they’re missing 2 of their top 6 but goodness what a garbage effort.
If Tippett insists on playing Sheehan against quality competition and he consistently is made to look worse than useless, it’s time for a change, no? He can’t piss a drop. He’s only ‘ok’ on the PK. Yikes. He’s my goat.
sweet
OriginalPouzar,
The cup is not half full
This team is wretched
And Holland has made it worse, Neal notwithstanding
Sekera better than any existing Oiler defenseman
He was bought out to acquire pure garbage , talentless garbage
Larsson was using a Person of Color to cover forwards or his partner was a Person of Color? Asking for a friend.
Of course, they’ve also beaten the 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th placed teams in the NHL.
Should never have split Klefbom Persson earlier in the year.
By the way…Amazon dropped off that gift you ordered for Ken.
rickithebear,
Larsson couldn’t make a clean pass to save his life.
Yes, he needs to vent so he doesn’t take it out on the drywall. Now if we could only teach him how to write about what to do instead stating the horror of it all. Firings aside.
Maybe Ricki & him should be locked in the same room together to discuss. Anyone here think that this may be Ricki’s dog? You know, the one that ate his homework with all the years of research?
SayItAin’tSo, Gretz, SayItAin’tSo!,
Coach Tippett:
“The high end players, they have the biggest opportunity to make a difference. The third goal, we have a group that’s been on the ice for over a minute, we go up, we turn it over. Kelf has been on for over a minute, he gets caught up the ice and we basically give up a two-on-one, an easy goal.”
I think Klef certainly has some culpability tonight. He made mistakes, whether it’s with reads or shift-length management. But he’s on the ice so much it’s bound to happen sometimes. Doughty, Hedman, all the top guys make mistakes… especially when they are fed a steady diet of the opposition’s best players game in, game out.
rickithebear,
Anderson made saves Koskinen and Smith did not
They are wretched
Do you watch def structure.
First 2 should be closed shots.
Other 3 open shot with no chance
Looked at all GA.
G1 PP Koskinen not tight to post.
G2 Klef pinch. Free path to HD. Thru 5 hole ( should be closed
G3 Klef Pinch. Subjects Larsson to 2 on 1 free path. above 80% open shot.
G4 both D in correct position. Klef presses player. Klef fails to follow forward. Forward gets off easy open shot that would not have occured if Klef follows fwd driving net.
G5 Klef overskates puck.
Larsson forced to cover Fwds with poc.
Forward out front defended by another fwd.
Klefbom fails to go from behind net and defend his side for the only possible shot chance.
This is the worst HD def game I have ever seen Klef play!
4 huge fails on HD coverage.
First 2 should not have gone in.
Last 3 high success% open shots.
Larsson got a -4 while doing nothing wrong in and on the edge of HD area.
Koskinen and Smith are wretched
Again a GM who did nothing
Waiving Sekera was pure idiocy
Larsson was the one to gave been turfed
The Chiarelli legacy of crap
I’m not happy with roster but
This game was never winnable. Two posts right of the bar and every single puck bounce going against the Oilers. Lucky goals getting through the pads, two lucky bounces off the boards …etc
Bizarre.
But back to roster. Or back to the Loweride question. List the 6 best wingers. I do not believe we have six decent wingers. And I have zero belief that the present bottom roster stew is ant better than Currie, Gambardella, Malone.
Five years of Connor. Top
Half of the roster is excellent. Rest is below average. We knew this after game 10. I heard “hey enjoy the ride” Why do we have to wait for a crash? Holland should be working on this roster constantly.
Credit Craig Anderson for holding the Sens in during the 1st period when shot attempts were 15-1 in favor of the Oilers.
In the second Koskinen let in a short side goal then a 5 hole goal then was slow across on a 2 on 1 goal. That was probably his worst performance of the season, reminiscent of his play from last year. He had a down phase right around December last season too…
Oil now beaten by 3 of the 4 worst teams in the league this year, and also lost to Minnesota who wasn’t far behind.
Pretenders still.
How many were because of shitty pinches by Klef and shitty goaltending.
You need to comment more.
2nd and 3rd period were garbage. Oilers’ best players weren’t very good.
Too many unsuccessful pinches by Klef. Too many odd man rushes against. Not enough back pressure. Goaltending needs to be better. There’s work to be done by the HC and GM.
Larsson is minus 4
He is now the worst Oiler defenceman
Really saying something on a team with Manning, Russell and Nurse
Why is he not waived tomorrow?
Hope the Oilers win before I get (really) old.
The Oilers without Nuge are like The Who without Moon. You’ve still got Townshend & Daltrey but it just don’t swing.
It sucks when I can’t make the puck go in from here
Ahem.
Hopefully this game serves as the early (mid) season wake up call for the boys.
drglen,
drglen,
No troll just a truth teller
GMs are paid to fix cap problems not to use them as an excuse for doing nothing
Start to unload the garbage
Tippett is an inept as McClelland and Hitchcock
And we know Holland is an idle incompetent
Refs calling all the infractions once the game is out of hand.
Okay then.
lol The Talbot effect.
We’ve seen this for so many years… so there must be a reason. Team wins big, and takes the next game off against a weak team. So many times..