St. Ignatius

The Edmonton Oilers won in Dallas last night, that’s breaking news in these parts. It wasn’t easy, although any game won courtesy two Connor McDavid assists has been touched by God. Mikko Koskinen was brilliant, the team’s structure stayed in place for much of the game and the power play paid off once and that’s all that was needed. Now let’s work on that possession game.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We called him ‘The Crane”: Teammates and coaches reveal their best Connor McDavid stories
  • New Jonathan Willis: Should the Oilers have outbid the Coyotes for Taylor Hall?
  • New Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s frustration and the impact it could have on the Edmonton Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers need to figure out five-on-five woes quickly, starting with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl
  • Lowetide: Who should be the next man up from the Bakersfield Condors?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: 10 subscriber questions for Oilers rookie defenceman Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Five loud noises Ken Holland could make to help the Oilers immediately
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers recall Caleb Jones, one of their most plausible trade chips
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘These games are not coming back’: Oilers lament frustrating week at home
  • Jonathan Willis: Dave Tippett rewarded for his bets on the resilience of Mikko Koskinen, Oilers
  • Lowetide: How many value contracts do the Oilers have and are any more on the way?
  • Jonathan Willis: How will Hart voters choose between Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How the Oilers turned team defence from a weakness into a strength
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

OILERS AFTER 36 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 15-18-3, 33 points; goal differential -16
  • Oilers in 2016: 18-12-6, 42 points; goal differential +5
  • Oilers in 2017: 17-17-2, 36 points; goal differential -5
  • Oilers in 2018: 18-15-3, 39 points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in 2019: 19-13-4, 42 points; goal differential -1

Huzzah! This edition of the Oilers is still running at the front of the pack and that’s a strong first half (well almost first half) of the season. We can talk about the recent past, but last night the team stopped a losing streak of some note. Impressive. Some iron in this team.

OILERS IN DECEMBER

  • Oilers in December 2015: 6-2-0, 12 points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in December 2016: 3-2-3, nine points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in December 2017: 5-3-0, 10 points; goal differential +7
  • Oilers in December 2018: 5-1-1, 11 points; goal differential +6
  • Oilers in December 2019: 3-4-1, seven points; goal differential -7

A big win over the Stars doesn’t get the team back to even for December but it’s a start. Ideally, the Oilers blow the doors off one of the teams on the schedule this week. I wonder if Sam Pollock is comfortable.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM DECEMBER

  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-2-1)
  • On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1)
  • At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 3-4-1, 7 points in 8 games

It’s a long month, but this road trip represents one of the toughest stretches. Oilers fans would have been pleased with a split in these two games, but winning the first leg of the trip perhaps changes the expectation.

OILERS 2019-20

The centers three delivered completely different performances, and coach Dave Tippett ran all four lines out there no matter the results. And there were some interesting results. All numbers five on five unless noted and all numbers via NST.

LINE 1 Joakim Nygard-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 8:58, going 5-10 Corsi, 3-6 shots, 1-0 goals and 1-2 HDSC.

Joakim Nygard battled hard and moved the puck deep a couple of times, used his speed and quickness to get the puck deep on the first goal. Connor McDavid was outstanding, with two takeaways, a breathtaking rush that almost cashed, a fabulous pass to Kassian for a goal and a nifty pass that started the power-play goal. Zack Kassian scored the first goal of the game, drew a penalty and was skating hard all night.

LINE 2 Jujhar Khaira-Nuge-Alex Chiasson played 8:30, going 1-18 Corsi (!!!), 1-8 shots, no goals and 0-3 HDSC. That’s a ghastly line, how did they get 8:30? In a tight game?

Jujhar Khaira had a poor game. He had one giveaway and didn’t impact the game positively. He was in chase mode all night. I wonder if he’s banged up, he couldn’t negotiate stick with puck worth a tinker’s-dam. Nuge had a shot, a good look on net, drew a penalty and was in a good spot defensively to clear the puck a few times (and specifically late). Alex Chiasson had a terrific assist on the power-play goal, but was quiet at five on five.

LINE 3 Riley Sheahan-Gaetan Haas-Josh Archibald played 7:03, 8-10 Corsi, 7-4 shots, no goals and 0-1 HDSC.

Riley Sheahan had a shot on goal, played 2:07 on the PK (0-3 shots). Gaetan Haas had a shot, a giveaway, takeaway, took five hits and kept on ticking. He’s an unusual and enjoyable player. Josh Archibald had two shots and both were impressive chances. Skated miles. He’s finding the range now, suspect we’ll see some goals in the next 10 games.

LINE 4 James Neal-Leon Draisaitl-Sam Gagner played 4:49, going 9-5 Corsi, 6-3 shots, no goals and 1-2 HDSC.

James Neal had two shots, one HDSC and a takeaway. He is coming on now, back to full health. Leon Draisaitl scored a fine power-play goal and played a solid game. Sam Gagner had three shots on goal and made several fine passes.

PAIRING ONE Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson played 12:22, going 11-14 Corsi, 7-7 shots, no goals and 3-2 HDSC.

Oscar Klefbom blocked five shots, moved the puck well and had his head on a swivel. A quality game. His desperate race to glory to save the day on a four-on-one was majestic. Adam Larsson played an effective game too, drawing a penalty and skating the puck out of danger. Physical, kept the porch tidy. He’s back. This duo is taking back the top pairing role.

PAIRING TWO Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 9:51, going 11-7 Corsi, 5-6 shots, 1-0 goals and 1-1 HDSC.

Darnell Nurse picked up an assist on a great pass, four shots and skated miles. He blocked a pass on the Dallas goal but could not recover in time to impact the goal. Ethan Bear’s passing was outstanding again, he’s a pleasure to watch with the puck on his stick. He drew a penalty, won more battles than usual and played a physical game. A strong bounceback from his tough night against Toronto. Knocked Blake Comeau off his feet late in the game, one of the best moments of the contest.

PAIRING THREE Kris Russell and Caleb Jones played 8:30, going 6-17 Corsi, 6-8 shots, no goals and 0-5 HDSC.

Kris Russell had one shot, one giveaway and two blocked shots. He defended well. Caleb Jones had one shot, a penalty and drew a penalty. He’s becoming more confident now, the drawn penalty came when Jones stepped up from the blue line and charged toward the net.

GOALIE Mikko Koskinen stopped 33 of 34 shots, .971. He was outstanding, in fact the late save on Corey Perry was probably the most important play of the game (goals aside). He is No. 1 now. No question.

HALL AND ‘YOTES

Taylor Hall is off to Arizona, where he’ll get some more playoff games and possibly form a frightening line with Phil Kessel. I like this deal for the Coyotes, more than I would have liked a matching deal for Edmonton (2020 first, 2021 third that would possibly move up, Caleb Jones, Cooper Marody, Ostap Safin). Why? Coyotes have more of their roster figured out and are less likely to free fall. Plus Holland could not afford to send away that first-round pick in a deep draft and run the risk of Edmonton’s selection landing at No. 8 overall again. As the great Kate Bush sang, Oilers are still runnin’ up that hill.

THE 2020 DRAFT

Corey Pronman has 17 high end or better prospects for the 2020 draft (read about it here) and a scout I talked to said the quality is 20 deep. We’ll see as time goes by, but I think Ken Holland keeping his powder dry was the right call.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we get rolling TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will talk last night’s game, the Hall to Arizona deal and the week to come. Luke Lapinski from 98.7 Arizona Sports will join us to talk Hall deal. Andrew Peard and Corey Graham will pop in for the Oil Kings round table at 11. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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279 Responses to "St. Ignatius"

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  1. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilin52: Hate to break it to you, but he’s played 26 NHL games, has 5 points. 47 AHL games, has 31 points. Chances he’s a top 6 NHL forward at this point are pretty slim. He better learn to forecheck and kill penalties if he wants to make some dough in North America.

    He’s likely the best forechecker on the Condors and plays PK1 often.

  2. OriginalPouzar says:

    Durag: I’m looking forward to seeing Konovalov next year. If he pans out and Koskinen keeps this up, I say we exclusively goalie shop in the KHL from now on!

    Hope you have a great time in Russia!

    He’s got another year left on his KHL contract.

    As an aside, Skinner was sent to the ECHL yesterday. He gets most of the starts in the AHL over Wells but Wells keeps the AHL job – they clearly want Skinner playing.

  3. stephenw24 says:

    It is interesting to see Detroit and New Jersey solidly in the bottom, with a deep draft you might be able to acquire some decent players from these teams for a salary dump or send a prospect with veteran players on expiring contracts to free up space. Sam Gagner and Brandon Manning are players that will help you to acquire more ping pong balls (low quality veterans) and are on expiring contracts. You see this more often in the NBA where one or two players can make a team, bad teams will load up on overpaid veterans on expiring contracts in hope of tanking and free agency. Interesting to see if Detroit or New Jersey pursue something like this, though hockey is much more of a team sport.

  4. Wilde says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    McKenzie confirmed that Holland met with Kass’ agent for preliminary contract talks.

    McKenzie doesn’t know what is going to happen with Nurse – 7 year deal, 5 years deal, 2 year deal – mentioned them all.

    If 2 years isn’t instantly ruled out by the player’s camp that’s a better situation than I’ve thought

  5. Andy Dufresne says:

    Wilde: What does it take to ‘prove’? I’d say the issue with Bear is sample size; waive that and Bear’s as good as Larsson n those minutes

    Whats Bears sample size in the NHL playoffs?

    I hope Bears style Bears fruit in playoffs. OOPS….thats three bears…..I think I just summoned Ricki

  6. OriginalPouzar says:

    ArmchairGM: Ii don’t think he’ll be here next year – when he was drafted it was reported that he had 2 years left on his KHL contract. I suspect we’ll see him in NA (perhaps Bakersfield) for the 2021-22 season.

    This is factually correct.

    The timing is actually excellent – give Skinner and Wells another year in the AHL without jamming the crease (hopefully Starrett is an Edmonton Oiler) and then all three have their contracts expire at the same time and the org can decide which one(s) they want to keep and sign/re-sign.

    Don’t sleep on Rodrigue – years away though.

  7. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar: He’s likely the best forechecker on the Condors and plays PK1 often.

    I am all for “ripening” prospects. But Yammy played 4 full years in the WHL and will have 2 seasons in the AHL.

    I think Edm needs to give him 40 games nxt season and see what they have. They need his speed and forechecking. And OP says he penalty kills.

  8. jtblack says:

    stephenw24:
    It is interesting to see Detroit and New Jersey solidly in the bottom, with a deep draft you might be able to acquire some decent players from these teams for a salary dump or send a prospect with veteran players on expiring contracts to free up space.Sam Gagner and Brandon Manning are players that will help you to acquire more ping pong balls (low quality veterans) and are on expiring contracts.You see this more often in the NBA where one or two players can make a team, bad teams will load up on overpaid veterans on expiring contracts in hope of tanking and free agency.Interesting to see if Detroit or New Jersey pursue something like this, though hockey is much more of a team sport.

    I would strongly consider a package of JP & other assets for Palmeri.

    not sure NJ will trade him, but hebwould be great add for 1.5 yrs

  9. Darth Tu says:

    Andy Dufresne,

    Be careful with the playoff sample size chat, you’ll summon the ghost of Eberle’s past!

  10. OriginalPouzar says:

    rickithebear:

    I love me some Matt Benning.

    At the same time, please adjust for Qoc.

  11. Andy Dufresne says:

    OriginalPouzar: I love me some Matt Benning.

    At the same time, please adjust for Qoc.

    I fear for Matt Benning adjusting for QoC……Quantity of Concussions. Very serious matter

  12. who says:

    Harpers Hair: Troy Stetcher.

    Doesn’t have Larssons extensive injury history.

    Worth a 2nd round pick at best.

    Be serious. Do you really consider Stetcher to be a shutdown defenseman? I think that was the question.
    Troy Stetcher is not Adam Larrson. Ethan Bear would be a better comparable.

  13. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Durag: Honestly, take advantage of the location to eat and drink somewhere nearby before the game. I’ve just discovered Ramen Misoya which is fantastic if you’re into ramen. Kelly’s is a classic pub that does great pizza. Tzin, Cavern, Chop or Rostizado are good upscale options. Joeys and Baiju are quieter lounge type places. Mercer is geographically ideal but gets a little rowdy/douchey on game day. I’ve actually never tried the food at Rogers because I’m dubious about $14 stadium burgers. Your drink options are essentially $12.75 tall cans of Canadian.

    Enjoy the game! I hope McDavid does something magical for you!

    edit: Forgot about Sabor as a good upscale spot, and I’ve heard good things about Bundok but never been.

    I’d agree with everything in this list except Chop. A visit to Edmonton’s food scene is better served by a non-chain but if one must, The Keg or even Joey’s or Earl’s does a better job.

    If you’re keen to eat near the arena (and there are many good options) the list above is fairly comprehensive. Check out the Instagram feeds of those spots to get a good sense of what they offer; my personal favourite from the list is Rostizado. Mercer Tavern is a good spot to go before the game, the food is decent too (good balance between price, food, atmosphere and tap list).

    Cheap beers in Ford hall before the game. The Hall of Fame Room and Studio 99 have interesting memorabilia worth a look if you get there early enough.

  14. Andy Dufresne says:

    Darth Tu:
    Andy Dufresne,

    Be careful with the playoff sample size chat, you’ll summon the ghost of Eberle’s past!

    lol……that Eberle contract with the NYI is looking pretty scary right now. 37 points last season and 12 points so far this year…..and signed for another 4 yrs at $5.5M…..and hes not a defensive specialst or a penalty killer…..yikes

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Troy Stetcher.

    Doesn’t have Larssons extensive injury history.

    Worth a 2nd round pick at best.

    What extensive injury history? He missed two weeks with a tight back in 3 seasons as an Oiler prior to the broken foot.

  16. jtblack says:

    Andy Dufresne: lol……that Eberle contract with the NYI is looking pretty scary right now. 37 points last season and 12 points so far this year…..and signed for another 4 yrs at $5.5M…..and hes not a defensive specialst or a penalty killer…..yikes

    GM’s have many difficult decisions,, but as an org I would put in 2 rules.

    1) Pay players on RFA or in their prime
    2) If you are going to sign any player over 28 for term, make sure they are a plus skater. The plus skaters seem to be effective longer

  17. stephenw24 says:

    I agree with the statement on Eberle, however he has only played in 21 games for the Islanders who have played 31 games thus far

  18. Harpers Hair says:

    who: Be serious. Do you really consider Stetcher to be a shutdown defenseman? I think that was the question.
    Troy Stetcher is not Adam Larrson. Ethan Bear would be a better comparable.

    Are you sure Larsson is a shutdown defenseman?

    Doesn’t appear to be shutting down much of anything.

  19. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: What extensive injury history? He missed two weeks with a tight back in 3 seasons as an Oiler prior to the broken foot.

    That is an injury history.

    Backs seldom recover fully.

  20. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    ArmchairGM,

    High praise, indeed.

    Depends who’s left on the board at the time. We really need to add some snipers/goal scorers to bury the playmakers’ dishes. Ideally players who are fast, right handed and gritty. Having relative depth in goal (voodoo not withstanding) makes me look to forward depth as the next area to restock the cupboards.

  21. Darth Tu says:

    Andy Dufresne: lol……that Eberle contract with the NYI is looking pretty scary right now. 37 points last season and 12 points so far this year…..and signed for another 4 yrs at $5.5M…..and hes not a defensive specialst or a penalty killer…..yikes

    That contract aside, the point was he was ran out of town by an angry crowd of Oiler fans waving pitchforks for not performing in the playoffs. Then proceeded to perform in the playoffs with the Islanders. Granted cap space had to be moved out and a 3rd line C was required, so there was that logic to the move.

    Still – we must be wary of the playoff appearance sample size chat.

    Agreed with JTBlack on the signing players over 28 though – 3-4 years max and then 2 years max from 33 onward.

  22. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    *fibula

  23. rickithebear says:

    We know the only undifferentiated open/closed Sh stat that captures all closed corsi affect by Dmen (block + misses + closed shot) is evga/60.

    It is nice to see Klef – Larsson being a top def pair last 5 gm, driven by historic elite open/ homeplate reduction dman Larsson.
    VGK selection of 100% of players in exp draft who fit my champ core roster theory proved you can never have to many top open/HD reduction Dmen by selecting all 9 available.

    It is nice to see the goal production, we saw under first yr of Lucic, return with Neal.

    We knew that their was a traditional 4 yr cycle from Hall.
    1 yr top 10 off forward.
    2 yr top 60 – 90 fwd
    1 yr of injury season.

    16-17
    Hall 20G 53P -9; #84 F G; #68 F P
    Lucic 23G 50P -3; #58 F G; #90 F P

    17-18
    Hall 39G 93P +14; #9 F G; #6 F P
    Lucic 10g 34P -12

    18-19
    Hall 11G 37P -6; #253 F G; #153 F P
    Lucic 6g 20p -9

    19-20
    Hall 6g 25p -11; #156 F G; #58F P
    expects a 10M+ contract
    A Hall – Kessel Pr should be nasty.

    Neal 15g 22p -16; #15 F G; #89 F P
    3 more yr @ 5.75M

  24. Wonder Llama says:

    Bag of Pucks: Mercers Tavern across the street from the arena is fun. Between the Ice District, 104th street renewal, JW Marriott, YEG foodie scene, there are actually a ton of entertainment and dining options now in what used to be a pretty dormant downtown. Really depends what you’re looking for? Quiet vs Loud, Upscale vs Bargain, Chic vs Authentic, etc. There’s something for everyone. If you like Tapas and wine, Tzin is tasty and funky but small.

    If you’re hitting WEM for some Christmas shopping, nerd out and try one of the VR sims at the Void.

    Cool. Thank you!

    Man, I feel like I really don’t know Edmonton anymore.

  25. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: The market will shrink as the deadline approaches.
    As we’ve seen in the Hall trade, you can get more interest from more teams who think they could be playoff contenders earlier in the season.

    Unlike the Canucks the Oilers have a chance at the playoffs. Trading a top four right shot D at this time would be other than smart which you already know. Just difficult to not troll isn’t it.

  26. rickithebear says:

    Last 6 seasons 13-14 to 18-19
    Fwd 20G 45P seasons.
    12 fwd with all 6 seasons
    18 fwd with 5 seasons.
    Eberle
    Couture
    Duchesse
    Forsberg
    Giroux
    Hoffman
    Kucherov
    Landeskog
    Marchand
    O’Reilly
    Simmonds
    Skinner
    Staal, E.
    Stone
    Tarasenko
    JVR
    Voracek

  27. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: That is an injury history.

    Backs seldom recover fully.

    A question, is it necessary to create conflict for you? Bcs it isn’t a healthy trait, just so you know.

  28. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: That is an injury history.

    Backs seldom recover fully.

    That’s a pretty aggressive use of the phrase “extensive injury history”

    Given he’s missed 4 games (maybe it was 5) with a tight back in his career, I won’t put too much stock in to your prognostication regarding his back health.

  29. Harpers Hair says:

    pts2pndr: Unlike the Canucks the Oilers have a chance at the playoffs. Trading a top four right shot D at this time would be other than smart which you already know. Just difficult to not troll isn’t it.

    The Canucks actually have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Oilers.

    While I don’t expect either team will make it, Dom at the Athletic has the Canucks at 41% and the Oilers at 31% to make the playoffs.

    The Canucks have 5 straight at home which will likely make or break their season.

    The premise was getting a first round pick for Larsson.

    If that is the goal, every day that passes drops his value.

    Otherwise he will become an average second pairing defenseman on an expiring contract.

  30. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: A question, is it necessary to create conflict for you? Bcs it isn’t a healthy trait, just so you know.

    A question…is it necessary to see things that aren’t there?

  31. rickithebear says:

    16 yr away from YEG food scene.
    I miss
    Gini’s table d’hôte
    Red Ox Inn specials
    I here La Boheme closed.
    Bauhershmaus
    Dadeo, Oyster Po Boy
    Golden Rice Bowl noodles.

  32. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: That’s a pretty aggressive use of the phrase “extensive injury history”

    Given he’s missed 4 games (maybe it was 5) with a tight back in his career, I won’t put too much stock in to your prognostication regarding his back health.

    Thank you Doctor.

    Have you ever had back pain?

    It never goes away.

  33. who says:

    Harpers Hair: Are you sure Larsson is a shutdown defenseman?

    Doesn’t appear to be shutting down much of anything.

    Yeah I am.
    But then again, I’m pretty much sure about everything.

  34. ArmchairGM says:

    BornInAGretzkyJersey:
    ArmchairGM,

    High praise, indeed.

    Depends who’s left on the board at the time.We really need to add some snipers/goal scorers to bury the playmakers’ dishes.Ideally players who are fast, right handed and gritty.Having relative depth in goal (voodoo not withstanding) makes me look to forward depth as the next area to restock the cupboards.

    Agreed. But since the talk about Askarov is top-10 and sometimes even top-5, I don’t think it’s a decision the Oilers scouts will have to make.

  35. who says:

    Harpers Hair: longe

    I doubt that the Oilers are even considering moving Larrson this year. Or next summer. They really don’t have anyone to replace him yet.
    If they are out of the race by the 2021 trade deadline, then sure, they’d probably looking at getting something for him.
    The expiry date on his contract actually dovetails quite nicely with the development timelines of Bear and Bouchard.
    You are correct that maximun trade value would be derived right now, but that would be throwing in the towel on the next 2 years.

  36. Harpers Hair says:

    who: I doubt that the Oilers are even considering moving Larrson this year. Or next summer. They really don’t have anyone to replace him yet.
    If they are out of the race by the 2021 trade deadline, then sure, they’d probably looking at getting something for him.
    The expiry date on his contract actually dovetails quite nicely with the development timelines of Bear and Bouchard.
    You are correct that maximun trade value would be derived right now, but that would be throwing in the towel on the next 2 years.

    Correct.

    A first round pick at next years deadline is a fantasy.

  37. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: The Canucks actually have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Oilers.

    While I don’t expect either team will make it, Dom at the Athletic has the Canucks at 41% and the Oilers at 31% to make the playoffs.

    The Canucks have 5 straight at home which will likely make or break their season.

    The premise was getting a first round pick for Larsson.

    If that is the goal, every day that passes drops his value.

    Otherwise he will become an average second pairing defenseman on an expiring contract.

    I thought points percentage was important?

    We all love the Athletic but really what you meant to say is that “According to Dom, the Canucks have a better chance”.

    Most other models disagree.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Thank you Doctor.

    Have you ever had back pain?

    It never goes away.

    Wait, who is playing Doctor?

    I’m quite certain players have had a tight back and it hasn’t morphed in to chronic back issues.

    One injury in his Oiler career, for 7 weeks, and that’s an extensive injury history.

    Wild stuff.

  39. stephenw24 says:

    I hope the oilers can take Mike Smith off the active roster and make him some type of goalie coach focused on puck handling for the rest of the year, split between Edmonton and Bakersfield. He can’t even go post to post on passes across or rap-around attempts any longer, looks like he is injured or perhaps done as an NHLer

    As for a backup, does Anyone from Bakersfield seem ready for a nhl backup job or are the oilers better off pursuing someone via trade? Just curious what the folks who follow Bakersfield think.

  40. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: I thought points percentage was important?

    We all love the Athletic but really what you meant to say is that “According to Dom, the Canucks have a better chance”.

    Most other models disagree.

    Are you as thick as this comment would seem?

    Final results depend on many things including strength of schedule, back to backs and travel.

    While no model is perfect, Dom’s is pretty good.

    Please provide a link to any projection that has the Oilers playoff bound.

    I’ll wait.

  41. jp says:

    Andy Dufresne: Curious……..other than Taylor Hall….has there ever been a player that is a career minus player that won the Hart?
    Hall is kind of unique having played on really bad teams….

    Interesting question.

    First, Taylor Hall’s career isn’t over yet. And if he’s to be believed that he’s looking to play on a contender from here on he may well not finish is career a minus player.

    I don’t think there are any players who finished their career as minus players who’ve won the Hart, but a couple were when they first won it.

    Mario Lemieux in 87-88
    Brett Hull in 90-91
    And Joe Sakic was a career +1 when he won in 2001

    We’ll see where Taylor ends up when all is said and done.

  42. Neumann says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Check out Stu McGill’s work and find yourself a good therapist and strength and conditioning coach. If you live in Vancouver I can help. Back pain isn’t a life sentence.

  43. pietschu says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Crushed my L3 vertebrae in 1984, had muscle spasms and cramps for a few years but since I learned to stretch and strengthen my core, I have been pain free for about 25 years. Not an athlete though.

  44. leadfarmer says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Another thrilling night of discussing the Canucks with DSF
    Look neither team is making the playoffs
    But we’re happy we’re still in the hunt
    So why don’t you quit pissing on the rug and let us enjoy still having a chance at the playoffs at Xmas

  45. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer:
    Harpers Hair,

    Another thrilling night of discussing the Canucks with DSF
    Look neither team is making the playoffs
    But we’re happy we’re still in the hunt
    So why don’t you quit pissing on the rug and let us enjoy still having a chance at the playoffs at Xmas

    You are, of course, free to enjoy anything you like.

  46. McSorley33 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I know people here dont like taking goalies with first round picks
    But Askarov would be a very nice get in the draft

    Can he play wing?

  47. Reja says:

    Harpers Hair: Thank you Doctor.

    Have you ever had back pain?

    It never goes away.

    What about verbal gonorrhoea?

  48. OriginalPouzar says:

    stephenw:
    I hope the oilers can take Mike Smith off the active roster and make him some type of goalie coach focused on puck handling for the rest of the year, split between Edmonton and Bakersfield.He can’t even go post to post on passes across or rap-around attempts any longer, looks like he is injured or perhaps done as an NHLer

    As for a backup, does Anyone from Bakersfieldseem ready for a nhl backup job or are the oilers better off pursuing someone via trade?Just curious what the folks who follow Bakersfield think.

    No matter what they do with Smith, aside from a trade, he’s not off their cap.

    Shane Starrett may be ready but he’s just back from injury and played 5 games this year.

  49. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Are you as thick as this comment would seem?

    Final results depend on many things including strength of schedule, back to backs and travel.

    While no model is perfect, Dom’s is pretty good.

    Please provide a link to any projection that has the Oilersplayoff bound.

    I’ll wait.

    I’d like to think I’ve got some girth, thanks for asking.

    http://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

    http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/nhlpostseasonprob.html

    http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/playoff-odds.php

    Its tough to find one that doesn’t have them making it or that has the Canucks ahead – Dom is the exception.

  50. OriginalPouzar says:

    pietschu:
    Harpers Hair,

    Crushed my L3 vertebrae in 1984, had muscle spasms and cramps for a few years but since I learned to stretch and strengthen my core, I have been pain free for about 25 years.Not an athlete though.

    But Adam Larsson had a tight back a few seasons ago…..

  51. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: Are you as thick as this comment would seem?

    Final results depend on many things including strength of schedule, back to backs and travel.

    While no model is perfect, Dom’s is pretty good.

    Please provide a link to any projection that has the Oilersplayoff bound.

    I’ll wait.

    MIcah Blake McCurdy had EDM at 49% to make the playoffs. Has them finishing 9th

    Has the Dys at 36% finishing 11th.
    https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1207026368464195584/photo/1

  52. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: MIcah Blake McCurdy had EDM at 49% to make the playoffs.Has them finishing 9th

    Has the Dys at 36% finishing 11th.
    https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1207026368464195584/photo/1

    So neither making the playoffs.

    Didn’t I say that?

  53. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Harpers Hair: So neither making the playoffs.

    Didn’t I say that?

    I was disputing your “Dys projected better than EDM”

  54. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: The market will shrink as the deadline approaches.
    As we’ve seen in the Hall trade, you can get more interest from more teams who think they could be playoff contenders earlier in the season.

    What market? Is Larsson suddenly on the market?

    The question was, why? As in why are you suggesting the appropriate course of action is for the Oilers to get him on the market and trade him right now?

  55. OriginalPouzar says:

    HarpersHair: Are you as thick as this comment would seem?

    Final results depend on many things including strength of schedule, back to backs and travel.

    While no model is perfect, Dom’s is pretty good.

    Please provide a link to any projection that has the Oilersplayoff bound.

    I’ll wait.
    ——————————-
    I’d like to think I’ve got some girth, thanks for asking.

    http://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

    http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/nhlpostseasonprob.html

    http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/playoff-odds.php

    Its tough to find one that doesn’t have them making it or that has the Canucks ahead – Dom is the exception.

  56. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I was disputing your “Dys projected better than EDM”

    Meh.

    Neither is a winner.

  57. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: What market? Is Larsson suddenly on the market?

    The question was, why?As in why are you suggesting the appropriate course of action is for the Oilers to get him on the market and trade him right now?

    Only if you want a first round pick.

    If you don’t…keep him.

    But his trade value decreases every day.

  58. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Pittsburgh Penguins with a sharp demonstration of how to defend 5v6. Instead of turning a 2-0 lead into a 2-1 white knuckle ride all the way to the buzzer, why not turn a 2-1 lead into a 4-1 lead well before the last minute of play is even announced? Boom! Done

  59. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    HarpersHair: Are you as thick as this comment would seem?

    Final results depend on many things including strength of schedule, back to backs and travel.

    While no model is perfect, Dom’s is pretty good.

    Please provide a link to any projection that has the Oilersplayoff bound.

    I’ll wait.
    ——————————-
    I’d like to think I’ve got some girth, thanks for asking.

    http://moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

    https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

    http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/nhlpostseasonprob.html

    http://powerrankingsguru.com/nhl/playoff-odds.php

    Its tough to find one that doesn’t have them making it or that has the Canucks ahead – Dom is the exception.

    I used to enter Micah Blake McCurdy’s standings prediction content.

    My model was my weightings of what I think is important on hockey teams. Very simple stuff.

    I beat Dom every year we were both entered iirc.

  60. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Pittsburgh Penguins with a sharp demonstration of how to defend 5v6. Instead of turning a 2-0 lead into a 2-1 white knuckle ride all the way to the buzzer, why not turn a 2-1 lead into a 4-1 lead well before the last minute of play is even announced? Boom! Done

    CGY didn’t score a goal 6-5 to go to overtime??!?!?!

    You mean they can’t do that every time?

  61. Sierra says:

    leadfarmer:
    Harpers Hair,

    Another thrilling night of discussing the Canucks with DSF

    Yup, every fooken night.

    Are there no Canuck fan forums?

  62. Johnny skid says:

    Sierra: Yup, every fooken night.

    Are there no Canuck fan forums?

    they don’t want him either.

  63. Wilde says:

    Andy Dufresne: Whats Bears sample size in the NHL playoffs?

    I hope Bears style Bears fruit in playoffs.OOPS….thats three bears…..I think I just summoned Ricki

    haha

  64. Victoria Oil says:

    Thomas Chabot played 38 minutes tonight.

    Aye Carumba!

  65. Oilin4 says:

    Victoria Oil:
    Thomas Chabot played 38 minutes tonight.

    Aye Carumba!

    He would have played the whole game, but rumor has it he had to use the bathroom.

  66. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Thank you Doctor.

    Have you ever had back pain?

    It never goes away.

    That would be a lot like you but the pain in a slightly different area. In my era your attitude would have
    been greatly diminished. It takes no skill or intelligence to do what you do in anonymity
    Large odds you would not do this around any group of guys I know more than once.

  67. pts2pndr says:

    Harpers Hair: Meh.

    Neither is a winner.

    No but you are a wiener.

  68. Wilde says:

    lil update since I checked this today, Ostap Safin is the leading scorer on out ECHL team right now, too lazy to check EV numbers

    The players I have for reference here (ones with decent samples in my tracking that have played on both teams) are Hebig, Iacobellis, Vesey, Stukel, and Lebrie, McFarland, and Larkin.

    I’m picking up a bunch of Hebig’s bottom six games and Stukel’s games in general as I fill out last year’s schedule. I have under ten games left until the season’s completely tracked and that means I’ll get the full portfolio of all these fringe players that are good to compare the non-breakout rookies to.

    As I watch these games though, the need for statistical analysis for minor league personnel is so stark. Literally every guy who’s played a game except maybe Vesey, Starrett and Larkin (who happen to be the most inexcusable nepotism/area scout narcisism signings too, weird!!) has made some kind of standout eye test play that’s catalogued in my (shitty) memory. People attempting to parse this stuff without taking data seriously is probably why minor league systems remain the furthest-from-parity part of NHL orgs in terms of performance.

  69. Darth Tu says:

    Wilde,

    You’re doing amazing work. It’s hugely appreciated, keep it up!

  70. Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual says:

    Far be it from me to tell people what to do, but do people actually enjoy the constant pissing contests with this condescending Nucks homer? The quality of the discourse in these threads drops off substantially in his presence.

    I realize I’m free to not read it but it’s clear the guy doesn’t operate in good faith.

  71. Numenius says:

    Unfriendly Regional Arachnid Individual: The quality of the discourse in these threads drops off substantially in his presence.

    I realize I’m free to not read it but it’s clear the guy doesn’t operate in good faith.

    I don’t enjoy it either.

    It would help if people stopped replying to him, but that may be too much to ask.

  72. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Pittsburgh Penguins with a sharp demonstration of how to defend 5v6. Instead of turning a 2-0 lead into a 2-1 white knuckle ride all the way to the buzzer, why not turn a 2-1 lead into a 4-1 lead well before the last minute of play is even announced? Boom! Done

    How on earth could a team accomplish this? Was the opposition goaler at the 7-11? No no, Mr. McCurdy, this is the nonfiction section of the library. We’ll simply have to snow angel and hail Mary our way to victories.

  73. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: Only if you want a first round pick.

    Pretty sure no one actually said they wanted to trade him for a first rounder.

  74. meanashell11 says:

    Harpers Hair: Meh.

    Neither is a winner.

    oh oh, goal posts moving.

  75. meanashell11 says:

    Nice start to that five game home stand for the Dys that is going to vault them into a playoff spot. Strength of schedule and all that. Something something. meh

  76. Lowetide says:

    New for The Athletic: The key missing element to the Oilers’ brilliant top line

    https://theathletic.com/1465055/2019/12/18/lowetide-the-key-missing-element-to-the-oilers-brilliant-top-line/

  77. Professor Q says:

    Oilin4: He would have played the whole game, but rumor has it he had to use the bathroom.

    Shades of Luongo.

    Big Hit! Big Shot! Big Goal! Series Over!

  78. Ryan says:

    Lowetide:
    New for The Athletic: The key missing element to the Oilers’ brilliant top line

    https://theathletic.com/1465055/2019/12/18/lowetide-the-key-missing-element-to-the-oilers-brilliant-top-line/

    Excellent and timely article!

    Always loved Rakell. Too bad, Anaheim will never trade him to us.

    Counterpoint. If Kassian isn’t going to be playing on the top line, it would be crazy to sign him for $3.5 x 5 or 4×4 or whatever because he doesn’t do much playing down the roster.

  79. PennersPancakes says:

    jtblack: hence the term “maybe”.

    you tell me who their Larsson is?

    I wasnt being facetious I think thats actually the closest comparison. I would still rather have Larsson though.

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