The Edmonton Oilers lost a winnable game on the road last night, I think it was a weak PS call but those are the breaks. Frustrating? Yes. Disaster? Hardly. It’s important to remember that the Oilers, while trying to make the playoffs, are also building the future. Kailer Yamamoto’s two games this season are a welcome reminder of just how important staying the course is for an organization running out of balance and at the top of the cap.
I know you want a trade for immediate help but four months of a UFA is empty calories. The club is adding important pieces. Ethan Bear. Caleb Jones. Kailer Yamamoto. William Lagesson. That’s the way you do it.
We’re into 2020 now, and the club is in a position where the out of town scoreboard is important. Edmonton was not blessed by it last night.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Jonathan Willis: It would be a mistake to write off the Oilers after their December slump
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: From Leon Draisaitl to the penalty kill, the things the Oilers need to improve to get back to the playoffs
- New Lowetide: A shift-by-shift analysis of Kailer Yamamoto’s 2019-20 debut in the Oilers’ New Year’s Eve game.
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: James Neal puts on New Year’s Eve show to remember in Oilers’ thriller
- Lowetide: Midseason review of ‘reasonable expectations’ shows Oilers are on track with preseason targets
- Jonathan Willis and Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How are our Oilers predictions holding up at the midseason mark? We decided to find out
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers midseason report card shows an unbalanced team with a lot of replaceable parts
- Lowetide: Oilers recall Kailer Yamamoto and William Lagesson
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘If I have another one in a short time, my career could be over’: Recent head injuries concerning Oilers’ Matt Benning
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers have actual problems; Connor McDavid’s defensive game is not among them
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We didn’t come with the mindset to play a hard game’: Poor preparation leaves Oilers coach steaming
- Jonathan Willis: Leon Draisaitl is struggling badly, even as the Oilers’ depth forwards seem to be coming around
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
- Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
- Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 43 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 17-23-3, 37 points; goal differential -23
- Oilers in 2016-17: 21-15-7, 49 points; goal differential +3
- Oilers in 2017-18: 18-22-3, 39 points; goal differential -24
- Oilers in 2018-19: 20-20-3, 43 points; goal differential -11
- Oilers in 2019-20: 21-17-5, 47 points; goal differential -7
I have to say this team’s ability to hang around with the 2016 team this late in the season is impressive. Now, they’re down 10 in the goal differential, but 21 wins and 47 points is a solid total. Edmonton is on track for 90 points. I picked them to post 88. The Oilers are in the playoffs this morning and incredibly lead the Flames in goal differential. This is not a strong division.
OILERS IN JANUARY
- Oilers in January 2016: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in January 2017: 0-1-0, no points; goal differential -2
- Oilers in January 2018: 0-1-0, no points; goal differential -5
- Oilers in January 2019: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +1
- Oilers in January 2020: 0-0-1, one point; goal differential -1
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- On the road to: BUF, BOS, TOR, MTL, CAL (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
- At home to: NAS, ARI, CAL, STL (Expected 1-2-1)
- Overall expected result: 3-4-2, eight points in nine games
- Current results: 0-0-1, one point in one game
Boston on Saturday has to be an assumed loss, it would be incredible to grab a point there. Toronto is also damn near impossible if they’re firing on all cylinders and they are doing just that right now. Montreal and Calgary are the other chances to grab points on the trip.
OILERS 2019-20
That second line had some jump early, seemed to fade a little as time went on. Lots of frustration from the team last night based on the sound bites, that’s good. Now to channel all that energy into grabbing some road points this month. All numbers five on five unless noted, and everything comes from NST.
LINE 1 James Neal-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 15:39, going 11-13 Corsi, 9-7 shots, no goals and 3-3 HDSC.
James Neal had two shots on goal and hit a lot but didn’t look as dangerous as the NYR game. Made some nice passes though, hope they give him time to get settled on the big line. Connor McDavid had four shots, three HDSC and won eight of 15 in the dot while drawing a penalty. Quality as always, no goals. Zack Kassian had a HDSC and took a penalty, more good passing. He is a better play now than he’s ever been and it isn’t close.
LINE 2 Ryan Nugent Hopkins-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 13:40, going 13-5 Corsi, 8-2 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-0 HDSC.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored a nice goal, played well and made smart plays with the puck. Leon Draisaitl had a good game, including an assist, a giveaway, two takeaways and he won 12 of 15 faceoffs. Had a brief wobble in OT that led to the PS. He had a couple of rocket shots too, but didn’t score. Kailer Yamamoto had an assist, two shots and both were HDSC. He should have been in Edmonton sooner, makes his line better.
LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 7:58, going 5-7 Corsi, 2-6 shots, 1-2 goals, 2-4 HDSC.
Jujhar Khaira was quiet, seemed lost at times (like on the Lazar goal). Riley Sheahan scored and won five of seven on the dot. He is playing well, as well as he has at any time for the Oilers. Josh Archibald let his mark get inside position on the first goal against, but also had an assist.
LINE 4 Joakim Nygard-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 6:52, going 4-0 Corsi, 4-0 shots no goals and 2-0 HDSC.
Joakim Nygard had two HDSC, his foot speed creates an urgency everywhere. Gaetan Haas didn’t get much in the way of chances but worked hard and skated miles. Alex Chiasson worked hard but is in one of those funks where he looks like he’ll never score again.
PAIRING ONE Oscar Klefbom and Ethan Bear played 20:16, going 13-10 Corsi, 8-5 shots, 1-0 goals and 4-2 HDSC. Spent 12:06 with McDavid, this is easily the best pairing for the top line.
Oscar Klefbom had three shots, one takeaway and several good moments in coverage. Moves the puck so well. He was out in overtime and part of the exchange that led to the PS. I think Oscar’s injury has made his footspeed average. I don’t know if they should run him in OT. Ethan Bear had two shots, several good outlet passes and some good decisions. He has such good touch on his passes. Battled hard down low in the defensive zone, he’s winning more of those battles.
PAIRING TWO Darnell Nurse and Kris Russell played 20:04, going 10-17 Corsi, 7-10 shots, 0-1 goals and 3-3 HDSC. Pairing struggled mostly due to making poor passing decisions (both turned simple neutral zone five foot passes into jailbreaks the other way) and Nurse stepped away from Sam Reinhart in the slot in the seconds before his fine tipped goal.
Darnell Nurse had one takeaway and several moments when he was nonchalant with the puck. He did pause several times to settle down the play, Oilers blue haven’t been doing that lately. Kris Russell had two shots, two blocked shots and worked hard to get between the puck and his own net. Better outlet passes would save him hours of work every night.
PAIRING THREE William Lagesson and Adam Larsson played 9:21, going 7-7 Corsi, 4-5 shots, 1-1 goals, 2-4 HDSC.
William Lagesson had a blocked shot and appears to be settling in. Made a nice little play in the neutral zone in the first period with danger all around. He just needs to play. I don’t know how they’re going to find room for Bear, Jones and Lagesson in the final 38 games. Adam Larsson got an assist, shot, he made it to the far side of the net to foil Johansson but didn’t get support and Lazar put the puck in the net.
GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 23 of 26, .885. The Lazar goal could have been aided by a goalie who was quicker laterally, but the Reinhart and Eichel tallies weren’t on the netminder.
THE OT PLAY
Play starts behind the Buffalo net, Oscar Klefbom steps left, Jack Eichel gets a step going up the left side. As Klefbom hits the neutral zone in pursuit, Leon Draisaitl arrives but does not interrupt Eichel’s path to the net in any way. At this point, Klefbom is in trail position and is forced to slash and hammer. I don’t think it was a PS, but they don’t ask me in these situations. Blame? I’m inclined to wonder about Oscar in OT (foot speed), and you could blame Leon for not slowing progress. It’s also true that Jack Eichel made a nice play.
THE FUTURE
I’m looking for roster additions who project as solutions to problems over the next several years. Some of them have to be inexpensive. Kailer Yamamoto’s cap hit will be $894,166 next season, the good things he is doing in the NHL now are heartening for 2020-21. Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and others are percolating on the farm, perhaps they’ll contribute later this year.
The more I think about it, the more I would like to see a “Patrick Maroon” style trade. Grab a player who is underperforming and under contract. Acquire him at a good price. I like that better than chasing Toffoli because it helps (potentially) now and later.
Did you see Connor McDavid’s frustrated postgame? Many, if not most, Oilers fans want the GM to make a trade right now to help this 2019-20 club. I think the smarter play is to look for a player who is possibly on the outs with his current team. Someone like Sam Bennett.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
Friday edition of the show kickstarts the weekend! We get rolling at 10, Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will talk Oilers and tell us the biggest sports story (for him) of 2019. We’re fluid on the other guest, likely NFL and possibly Julian Edlow from Draft Kings. We’ll chat WJ’s and more, 10-1260 text and @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
I thoroughly enjoyed your take on our Goaltenders and Howie Meeker there’s a name that’s a blast from the past. Howie had influence over thousands of young kids back in the day.
There are those of us who linger around from time to time and enjoy your ( and many others ) comments
Read the re-post. Hope that counts! As usual, I see things very similar to you.
Those lunges of Smith’s are so bad. They are not the things large goalies should be doing. He seems to be deviating from what made/makes him successful. Maybe we can get Sean Burke to come do a consult with the guy?
____
I hope everyone had a merry Christmas and enjoyed the holiday season! Thanks to everyone for the entertaining reads!
Thanks, all. Sorry for the outburst. The whole attraction of this comments section is the dialog. I have another platform for soliloquys. ?
I haven’t been reading much or contributing as much or as importantly lately, Bruce. Not as in it this season, to be honest. But you are always appreciated, as a person and thoughts-wise.
Of course more offensive dmen would improve the scoring, but we literally need some dman to score 20 because our forwards don’t have the chops to do it. When the team does cycle, which isn’t often enough, we have very few natural goal scorers. This is why we can’t score and I think you know that.
NP, also for anyone who’s curious Bouchard leads iCF and iCFA per game of all Dmen with 4.68 and 2.19 respectively – I’m going to be conservative about the implications of that until I do detailed analysis of Persson’s WOWYs to account for the Lowe/Manning drag
So very good but nothing to write home about. Cool and thanks.
The reality is that K Russel spends too much time defending and it is next to impossible to score goals from the D zone. He is a good third pairing left D. He struggles when playing up the roster.
I agree it’s not ideal. But only 40% of the defensemen to play a game in the NHL this year shot right. Lefty D play the right side for most teams.
If you look at the 185 D who’ve played 24 games this year (one shy of 6 D per team).. each team has had about 2.5 RHD and 3.5 LHD. Russell is one of those guys, but it’s not rare.
The assist part is pretty good but having 10 contributions as a Dman is about top 10% iirc
Just call Benson up already.
Bruce McCurdy,
Rest assured your response was read and much appreciated.
Thanks again for this stuff.
Nice to see the Condors outperform their Corsi for a change.
5 shot attempts and 5 shot assists is more than a little impressive for one game, no?
LOL Sorry Bruce! That was a brilliant response!
Please post more often. You posts are some of the best.
PS: Too bad about Smith. I still like watching him handle the puck.
Bakersfield Condors vs. San Diego Gulls; January 3rd, 2020; game totals:
46CF-54CA
25FF-26FA
3GF-2GA
Top F: Benson (1.71 Game Score)
2 shot attempts, 3 shot assist
1 goal, 1 primary assist
11CF-17CA
2GF-0GA
Top D: Bouchard (1.88 Game Score)
5 shot attempts, 5 shot assist
1 goal
1 penalty drawn
21CF-15CA
1GF-0GA
There isn’t. But you weren’t talking to an empty room, I had a read and I’m sure many others did too.
I was looking at Koskinen’s numbers a day or two ago and was surprised to see his .912 still in the top half of starters (checking again now, he’s tied for 11/12/13th among goalies >20GP). So that’s a thoroughly solid result for him (based on expectations).
It’s interesting that .912 would have ranked 18/19th last year, and that Koskinen finished 26th among >40GP goalers last year with .906. The extra .006 has made a pretty huge difference this season.
I read it, Bruce! Noted again that you’d actually met one of my hockey heroes and then raced off to do some work. As with all your posts, thoughtfully presented and highly enjoyable to read.
Very good win by the Condors, solid team effort from the goalie out, likely best game I have seen Skinner, Bouchard and Mcleod play.
Edit: Look forward to Wilde summary and OP’s comments
Ha! I enjoyed the post!
Nice to have the kids driving the play! ?
I would submit that sometimes conversation with Hunter is tantamount to an empty room ?
Bouchard springs Cave for a partial breakaway but he misses the net.
Granlund isn’t playing again for Bakersfield tonight. Any news on an injury? Can a player be assigned to the minors while injured? I actually wonder if he’s not too happy about the assignment..
I don’t think the veteran rules are preventing him from playing, yet he’s not while Miles Koules, Jakob Stukel, Luke Esposito and Cam Hebig (fresh from the ECHL) play forward tonight for the Bakersfield Condors. Injury or unhappy with an AHL assignment are the only options, right?
Nothing quite like taking 20 minutes out of one’s life to give a detailed answ to a directed question only to find oneself talking to an empty room.
I’ll tell you what, if the Oilers make the playoffs this year a bunch of them will be back next year.
I actually wouldn’t be opposed to bringing any of them back for $1Mx1yr either. Really the only argument against it is that they weren’t good enough this year as a group.
Individually none of them stick out in particular as needing to go IMO. Likewise none have clearly earned another contract. Even if the Oilers miss the playoffs though, I don’t see an issue bringing 2 or 3 of them back, assuming they remain cheap.
Currie with a powerful zone entry up the boards, drops it to Benson and a shot/pass is tipped home by Kulevich to give the Condors the lead back.
Benson keeps rolling with 2 more points, so far.
The point being that no one expected Bear to be what he is this year. Players development at their own pace and sometimes in leaps and bounds.
Counting on him to be ready next year is foolish.
Counting him out is foolish as well.
Bakersfield Condors vs. San Diego Gulls; January 3rd, 2020; after two Periods:
35CF-39CA
17FF-19FA
2GF-2GA
Top F: McLeod (1.77 Game Score)
4 shot attempts, 3 shot assists
1 primary assist
16CF-5CA
1GF-0GA
Top D: Bouchard (1.67 Game Score)
4 shot attempts, 3 shot assist
1 goal
17CF-9CA
1GF-0GA
Agreed, though considering that’s exactly the comparison I used in my list, I’m a little biased. I loved their pre-name change output, though ‘New Material’ was a stunning record as well. Great band.
tcho,
happy to provide. Hope you liked the album
dustrock,
from what I was able to see, that’s a really strong playlist. Sadly I’m not a Spotify user (as a slave to Apple, I also use their streaming platform – yes I know Spotify is better, but I have my reasons), so I was only able to see the first 30 on the list, but I’m sure the rest of it is just as good. Thanks for sharing!
FWIW on ice shooting with McDavid-Neal together has been 3.5%. Their xGF is 54%. McDavid basically always overperforms xGF so they should probably be >60% GF rather than their actual 33% (2GF-4GA).
I think McDavid with Neal and Kassian should be able to win their minutes and that Draisaitl with Nuge is the best bet for this team to have 2 actual lines. Maybe Benson could get a look instead but Neal still has great hand and can score goals – I’d be in no hurry to replace him with Benson personally.
Also, Yamamoto, wow.
Ethan Bear played 37 games as a 20 year old in the AHL scoring roughly 0.5 p/g before being called up to the NHL where he scored 4 points in 18 games, was -11 and looked overwhelmed a majority of the time. He spent the next year in the AHL and became an NHL regular at 22.
Evan Bouchard has played 30 as a 20 year old in the AHL scoring roughly 0.5 p/g…..
I’d add that they did that with 36% OZ starts, allowing McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge to all start in the OZ more often than not.
There is indeed hope. My question is whether those 97, 29, 93 OFF numbers are sustainable.
I had an exchange with someone a month or so ago on the same topic and was convinced that the groups on ice shooting was unsustainably high (not sure if it was Ryan, or Wilde?). On ice shooting was over 8% at that point IIRC, after the Oilers bottom group had produced 4-5% the previous 2 seasons (and 0.0% through most of Oct 2019). If their true SH% is <5% then they're a true .970 PDO group, which makes it basically impossible to break 45% GF.
Fast forward to today and 97, 29, 93 OFF is 47.5% GF (19-21 in actual goals) since Nov. 1st. They've continued to be OK (Manna in an Oilers context). 52% shots. 52% xGoals. 7.36% on ice shooting. .912 on ice SV%. .986 PDO.
Maybe Holland's 6 million dollar men (total) can come within a hair of breaking even going forward?
Thoughts, agreement, disagreement welcome.
Ethan Bear says hi.
Bakersfield Condors vs. San Diego Gulls; January 3rd, 2020; after Period One:
27CF-20CA
11FF-9FA
2GF-1GA
Top F: McLeod (1.87 Game Score)
3 shot attempts, 3 primary shot assists
1 primary assist
15CF-1CA
1GF-0GA
Top D: Bouchard (1.72 Game Score)
4 shot attempts, 2 primary shot assists
1 goal
14CF-4CA
1GF-0GA
Currie misses a great chance – Logan Day with a great PP zone entry, off to Benson who sets up Currie for a quick strike shot from the slot but he misses the net.
Fast pace in the 1st period of the Condors game. Boy can Mcleod fly, appears to be our fastest skater and creates open space for his linemates
Funny to hear Holt say “Just 8 matchups between the Condors and Gulls this year”.
They played 10 times last year.
Crazy the amount of division games.
Persson trying to get too cute on a breakout, not willing to make the simple play and he gives it away for an almost scoring chance. No harm done but that would not have looked good.
Marody almost makes it 3-1 – robbed on a sweeping spin shot.
Maksimov is certainly getting more comfortable making plays and having the puck on his stick – continues to look better and better by the game (and has been one of the better forwards over the last 2-3 week given ice time, at least to my eye).
Malone sets up a Koulis who is stopped and then he sets up Joe G. who goes off the bar.
Bakersfield Condors vs. San Diego Gulls; January 3rd, 2020; first run:
Benson – Marody – Currie
Gambardella – Malone – Koules
Esposito – Cave – Maksimov
Stukel – McLeod – Hebig
Manning – Persson
Lowe – Bouchard
Kulevich – Day
Gulls get one back – point shot deflected in – d-man (Persson) was between the attacked and the net but didn’t really cover him. Decent position but not enough.
Bouchad, Malone, Cave, Mcleod on the PP – good possession but no goal.
I was about to formulate a retort but then my “research” shows that he was 1.65P/60 last season playing with:
Cave
Lucic
Brodziak
Hmmmmm……
Bouchard makes in 2-0 after 2:23 in after some wild pressure in front.
All the time in the world at the right circle and he snaps one under the bar – McLeod with the pass (solid work down low).
Kouelis/Malone/Joe G. as the second line.
Esposito/Cave/Maksimov as line 3.
Benson/Marody/Currie start.
24 seconds in, Currie to Benson and its 1-0 Condors.
Great pass by Currie and a slick back-hand one timer from Benson.
Persson should get the second apple on the dump out/transition.
No.
That has too many vowels to be Welsh.
Thai.
PARASTRATIOSPHECOMYISTRATIOSPHECOMYIOIDES