James Neal has 19 goals this season and is a big part of the Edmonton Oilers’ first half success. Seven of his goals are at even strength and 12 are on the power play, but they all count. One of the areas Ken Holland will want to increase the efficiency of his team is five on five production. It is not a strength for Neal, and that puts the roster in a tough situation.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide: Is there real trade deadline value in the Edmonton Oilers’ prospect pipeline?
- New Lowetide: ‘Connor McDavid: Whatever It Takes’ works as breaking news, drama and personality profile
- New Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Hey, Sparky, can you do that?’: How the Oilers’ AHL video coach got his start as the Islanders’ mascot.
- Eric Duhatschek: ‘He’s special’: The people who know him best tell the story of how Leon Draisaitl took the NHL by storm
- Pierre Lebrun: Where all 31 teams stand one month before the trade deadline
- Lowetide: What do Connor McDavid’s best lines tell us about his optimal linemates?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: I was an AHL coach for a day: Here’s what I learned
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers player poll: From the serious to the silly, the players weigh in on best dressed, most superstitious and more
- Thomas Drance: Inside how ‘Okanagan boy’ Ken Holland helped bring back the Penticton Young Stars tournament
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers minor-league defenceman Brandon Manning suspended five games for racial slur
- Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
- Lowetide: With the Oilers’ minor-league goaltending not good enough, Ilya Konovalov might be the answer
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
- Lowetide: Central Scouting’s midseason list offers Oilers some strong draft options
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
- Jonathan Willis: Zack Kassian’s breakout performance presents Oilers GM Ken Holland with a familiar dilemma
- Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
LINES TO START THE SECOND HALF
Oilers were on the ice yesterday (even the All-Stars) giving us an idea about the lines or pairings. Change may come in the next couple of days and there’s some evidence that the No. 1 line would be a good place to tweak. I like to run numbers from the last 10 games, gives us an idea about ‘what have you done for me lately’ and they aren’t pretty for two members of the top line. All numbers five on five, via NST.
LINE 1: James Neal [10, 1-1-2 0.86]-Connor McDavid [10, 4-3-7 2.62]-Zack Kassian [8, 0-2-2 1.01].
James Neal needs a hot streak, and goodness knows he’s capable. However, you can’t call them up on demand and it’s been a long time for Neal. Over the last two seasons, in 1414 minutes five on five, Neal has scored 10-11-21 (0.89) in Calgary and now Edmonton. He’s Boog Powell in 1976. Neal has some injuries and I do think he’s better than the numbers show over the last 10 games. He needs to hit a big fly or two. His on-ice goal differential (8-5) is better than both McDavid (8-8) and Kassian (4-6) during this period, I have no explanation for you. Kassian’s offense is low compared to the rest of his season but is not a tragedy if he can pot some goals in the next 10 games. McDavid is McDavid, shock and awe squared.
LINE 2: Nuge [10, 6-1-7 2.87]-Leon Draisaitl [10, 0-6-6 2.28]-Kailer Yamamoto [8, 2-3-5 2.58].
This line has eight goals between them five on five and we shouldn’t expect the same production in the next 10. Three things: Nuge has more torque on his shot, Leon is out of his funk and Yamamoto accomplished what he couldn’t two in the previous two seasons: Belong.
LINE 3: Joakim Nygard [10, 1-2-3 1.76]-Riley Sheahan [10, 2-3-5 2.90]-Josh Archibald [10, 2-2-4 2.35].
All three players are apparently in the plans for next year, and that represents three successful bets. Sheahan is not the player we saw early in the year, coming off an injury obscured his abilities. Archibald was outstanding with 97 when Kassian was out, wonder how long before we see it again.
LINE 4: Jujhar Khaira [6, 0-1-1 0.99]-Gaetan Haas [10, 1-0-1 0.69]-Alex Chiasson [9, 2-0-2 1.28] plus Sam Gagner [4, 1-0-1 1.31] and Patrick Russell [4, 0-0-0].
Just as the second line has drilled opponents over the last 10 games, the fourth line and extras have struggled. We should expect a little recovery over the next 10 from these five men. Not sure all of them will still be here.
ADDING TO MCDAVID’S LINE
One player who would be an interesting acquisition is Columbus Blue Jackets winger Josh Anderson. Aaron Portzline has an article up about the contract situation, Anderson hasn’t played since December 14 due to a shoulder injury.
Anderson is perhaps an ideal RW target for McDavid’s wing: He’s skilled, big, tough, shoots the puck and plays a responsible game. 27 goals a year ago. A terrific target if healthy.
The ideal candidate is Chris Kreider. He brings power and speed and scoring ability, and is durable. He would require Holland dealing from the top of the prospect pool and I don’t see it happening.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy morning on the show, TSN1260 beginning at 10. The sports world has a heavy heart today, the death of Kobe and Gianna Bryant is on everyone’s mind. Carlan Gay from NBA Canada will join us to help put this event in some kind of perspective, to try and make sense of it. Jason Strudwick joins at 11 and we’ll chat Oilers-Flames, the recall of an enforcer and the message it sends, and about the race to the playoffs. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Well, if one is being completely honest, they would mention that they are tied with the Oilers in RW and have played an extra game.
New for The Athletic: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
https://theathletic.com/1565110/2020/01/28/lowetide-why-the-oilers-are-more-likely-to-trade-adam-larsson-than-kris-russell/
Why do you hate Adam Larsson??
I’m not sure targeting Sheary is the right move – we already have a 5’8″ winger on the roster. I’d rather see Vesey and/or Girgensons added, both are bigger, cheaper and better defensively while posting similar offense.
They both also PK, although they wouldn’t likely be Tippett’s first choice over the boards. How much of the GA/60 number is on the goalies? Here are the two BUF players 4v5 stats along with EDM’s six most utilized PK forwards.
TOI/GP
Girgensons 2:25 (1st on BUF)
Sheahan 2:11
Archibald 2:09
Khaira 1:36
Nugent-Hopkins 1:29
Vesey 1:18 (6th on BUF)
Granlund 1:14
Russell 1:00
SA/60
Nugent-Hopkins 42.2
Khaira 42.83
Russell 56.02
Girgensons 57.75
Granlund 58.91
Sheahan 60.31
Vesey 61.42
Archibald 63.26
GA/60 (on-ice Sv%)
Khaira 2.68 (.938)
Archibald 5.56 (.912)
Nugent-Hopkins 5.63 (.867)
Sheahan 6.22 (.897)
Girgensons 9.62 (.833)
Vesey 10.24 (.833)
Granlund 10.85 (.816)
Russell 13.07 (.767)
xGA/60
Khaira 5.55
Archibald 5.97
Nugent-Hopkins 6.01
Sheahan 6.29
Girgensons 6.51
Russell 6.68
Vesey 6.75
Granlund 7.90
HDCA/60
Archibald 13.90
Sheahan 15.54
Russell 16.80
Khaira 16.95
Girgensons 19.25
Nugent-Hopkins 20.63
Vesey 21.50
Granlund 26.36
We are happy for you. You must be so proud!
Reja,
I went to two games this year. One in vegas (vs coyotes) and one here (vs laughs). The tv time outs and just random half-filled babble between whistles felt like it had grown a lot.
If you factor number of connor McDavid controlled power play entries and the breaks in, there is some bonus minutes in there that definitely inflate those minutes.
You’re so needlessly obtuse.
The same reason any trade of a pending UFA benefits any team trading them. They’re 10 points out of the playoffs and it’s entirely likely they’ll be selling at the deadline.
I realize you’ve made it your sacred mission to try to keep people realistic, but how does Sheary warrant much more than that? If he were an Oiler and we were discussing his trade value, he wouldn’t register as much more than a 3rd (which is consequently what my offer would be) and I’m sure you’d be quick to remind everyone of this fact.
James hasn’t scored a goal in January.
He might want to step up.
There’s only one real deal in these parts and his first name is James.
I agree. I just thought it was worth noting that 2 of 7 were Oilers. Nice to read some positive thoughts from outside the organization on our prospects.
We know what Granlund is at this stage so I agree Benson has a much higher potential ceiling. And his game very well could translate to something better than Granlund’s at the NHL level (much like Yamamoto’s has).
At the same time, it seems that they are comparable players in the AHL right now. I don’t see a strong argument that we should expect Benson to be the better NHL player today.
Some of this has been covered already, but Benson vs. Granlund (at the same age) is actually a really interesting comparison.
Both 2nd round picks (Benson 32nd, Granlund 45th).
Benson played draft +1 and +2 in the WHL. 33GP-42PTS and 58GP-69PTS
Granlund played draft +1 and +2 in Finland. 47GP-34PTS and 50GP-30PTS (also 7PG-7PTS and 6GP-12PTS at the World Jrs).
We all know that Benson had a big year in the AHL at age 20 (68-15-51-66).
At the same age (actually a month younger) Granlund scored 52-25-21-46 in the AHL (and 7-2-1-3 in the NHL).
Age 21, Benson has scored 42-9-26-35 in the AHL. Granlund scored 21-9-8-17 in the AHL and 48-10-8-18 in the NHL at age 21.
They’ve actually scored at almost identical rates in the AHL at the same age. And I you had to choose, IMO it’s clear Granlund has the edge prior to their respective 22nd birthdays.
I do think Benson will be a good NHLer. I think he’s NHL ready now but I also don’t see any urgency getting him onto the Oilers roster. IMO it’s possible (but pretty unlikely) that he’d bring much more than Granlund for the balance of 2019-20, but who knows?
Canucks beat the Blues 3-1.
They have won the season series against the Blues 2-1 and appear to be the real deal.
Now lead in RW, ROW and goal differential.
It seems like it’s been a decade of reading DSF consistently troll some smart folks on this blog.
It’s been an absolute pleasure to witness OP handle DSF with skill and poise regularly.
All is right in the world again.
Ya, that extra year of term at his overpriced salary makes the trade less than ideal.
Sure, if we could swap Russell for his (big if) but then, the $4M of Russell cap space is spent on a useful but overpriced player – would rather take Russell’s $4M and spend it well.
Nashville is in trouble right now. Ellis still not skating thanks to the elbow from (Katy) Perry in the Winter Classic and the defense is struggling mightily (Fabbro playing too high/too soon in the lineup and Weber, Irwin, Hamhuis are done). Plus they’re struggling to adjust to a new system and playing tentative.
Am hearing that Poile has been sitting on trades but after a trip to Washington Weds, then NJ away Thursday followed be Vegas (home) Saturday and a trip Winnipeg next Tues, they could be done and in sell mode very shortly.
Please don’t feed the troll – his last comment was equal parts idiotic and desperate for attention.
That’s basically the JT Miller trade.
Except Zucker is a couple of years older. In his prime years already, not like Miller just entering them.
….and Bonino
“Darcy, its high time you started on the pysanky for Easter”.
“Aww gee whiz…”
How do you know what the market is on middling middle 6 wingers on expiring contracts?
I”m guessing its not a high round pick and, as I stated, Gagner’s contract out is not required for the Oilers to consummate that trade today or at the deadline.
Seriously, “foisted Gagner on the Oilers”??????
In exchange for Ryan Spooner who provided a $1M cap hit to the Canucks, this year and next, to play in Europe.
Good grief.
Yeah the Sabres are going to trade an actual NHL player for a 4th round pick AND TAKE ON Gagner’s contract.
I’d imagine there are 29 NHL teams that could beat that offer.
BTW…a $1 million cap hit is less than a $3.5 million cap hit.
Yes, they have needed help all year but, since the turn of the calendar, 8 games, they’ve received that help. The team is scoring at league leading rates in 2020 and, yes, they have had 3 lines going.
It won’t continue without blip and the blip is when it makes sense to call up the skill player, not when the team is rolling offensively.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m excited to see Benson in the NHL and look forward to it – just don’t agree it needs to happen right now given how well the team has been playing and scoring. Its producing with balance.
Dallas gets the win on OT – at least they didn’t get the regulation win.
Wouldn’t that subsume the Canes “selling”?
Wouldn’t they want something back that helps their current roster?
I push “watch now” on my GameCenter and, boom, Stamkos ties it up with about 90 seconds left.
Hopefully they can keep Dallas to the single point (but it looks like, at the least, they’ll take away a regulation win – well, still 86 seconds to go).
If by imminent, they mean this season, I posit they will be wrong on Bouchard.
Not that he’s not developing at a rapid pace, he surely is and has taken off in all areas of the game over the last 4-6 weeks, however, I’m confidant Holland wants to:
1) continue that development
2) not bring a 20 year old rookie d-man in to the NHL lineup in the midst of a pressure filled playoff race when the team has a solid 8-9 legit NHL d-men and are healthy (at least for now)
3) not burn a year of his ELC at this stage
In hindsight yes they should have drafted Da Brincat but it’s not Benson’s fault. You believe he’s still around at pic 63 I don’t. Since you’ve viewed this player with the Giants and the condors what exactly does he need to do before he gets a call-up. I’m really cheering that this young man’s hard work and skill translates to the NHL level.
TO just about to put the finishing touches on Nashville – great result.
STL up 1-0 on Vancouver early – solid start.
Dal is up 2-1 on Tampa though, about half way through the 2nd.
I think this may be just a bit dishonest and speculative for the narrative, no?
Yes, there was the local factor and, sure, maybe that did indeed play a large or a small role. At the same time, Benson at 32 was far from an off-the-board pick – he was ranked in the top round by many projections.
If you think a low pick and Gagner’s bloated contract is all that it will take to get Sheary, perhaps you should re-examine the market.
Not sure what the Canucks have to do with this but just a reminder that they were the team that foisted Gagner on the Oilers.
We’re not exactly busting out of the seams with forward talent Leon and Connor have needed help all year. Benson is ready it’s time to see what we have and if taking a 1 or 2 goal scorer out of the line-up is going to disrupt team scoring then we are in some serious trouble. We need 3 or 4 lines going you can’t continue to play Leon and Connor these insane minutes if you expect to make a run in the playoffs.
Leafs now up 4-1 on Nashville.
Good for Oilers and the playoffs.
Good for Granlund being sold.
Woodguy v2.0,
Amazing article. Benson suffered serious injury setbacks and has played on an average team so far. If he remains injury free he may be even better than your article suggests.
I agree with staying away from expensive deadline deals.
Always liked Middlestat though. Lot of skill there. Needs a new start, just like JP.
Benning is sheltered with 3rd pairing comp / on-the-fly shifts, but we’d already had a glimpse of the Oilers without Larsson.
It wasn’t so bad.
I think Larsson is vastly overrated.
The play nearly always dies on his stick, he can’t outlet the puck, and he has limited speed. I’m too lazy to look, but I’m certain he has a poor penalty differential.
He’s one of those guys you think you need until you don’t and you really don’t… sort of like Russell.
Anyone got some time for LW Erik Haula? UFA in the summer and might be had for a reasonable amount. Can never have too many Finns? Well maybe except for JP…….
That would be a lot more onesided than the Hall trade. 5 years of Ehlers at 6 million for 1 year of Larrson at 4 million? Who in the hell thinks Winnipeg makes that trade?
I doubt that Klefbom gets you Ehlers
To reiterate, the team has scored 33 goals in the last 8 games and won 6.5 of those 8 games.
The scoring has come from most of the lineup.
The current schedule starts with some very high pressure games and, as of now, scoring goals and balance is not a primary concern.
Its seems the time to call him up will be when the secondary scoring dries up a bit or an injury to a top 9 player occurs – likely won’t be long.
Like any deadline type trade helps a selling team out of the playoff race.
Sheary is a 30-35 point middle six guy on an expiring contract – to get a mid-round pick for him would be a solid deal. They could take Gagner without worry as his contract expires so no cap implications past this year – that may increase the acquisition cost a tiny but but, at the end of the day, I’m not sure than money out would be required for Sheary.
I understand your most talked about team has failed to smartly make these types of future oriented moves when they should have recently so I understand no understanding.
The advantage the Oilers over the flames is super elite forwards, which is the most difficult to asset to attain…. we in theory have a couple of elite D on the ways as well…..if we accept that hockey is a strong link game, second only to basketball, rather than a weak link game like soccer…..we should be able to fill out the bottom 6 with clever analytics…..now we just need to invest more assets in advanced stats…..who in the organization will drive that change….oh we need elite goal tending as well
Benson & Bouchard named as 2 of 7 AHL players at the All Star game “poised for imminent NHL call-up’. Nothing in the piece everybody here doesn’t already know but interesting that 2 of 7 are Oilers prospects.
https://thehockeynews.com/news/article/future-watch-seven-ahl-all-stars-poised-for-an-imminent-nhl-call-up
Leafs up 2-1 on NSH after 1.
The fist statement is likely true because not many “hockey trades” happen at this time of year – the cap implications hinder that ability to consummate.
The next few sentences don’t really jive together with Ken’s stated strategy depending on the interpretation of the word “significant”.
A few of the reasons you state for him not making such a trade are the exact reasons he has stated he may in fact be a buyer – he has stated that he will look to buy (so prospects/picks out for player(s) in) if the team is looking like a playoff team and feeling/looking good. He has been express that, if that is the case, he feels like he owes the team a boost.
Now, of course, we can be quite certain that the 1st rounder, Bouchard, etc. are not on the table for any rental and would only be moved in a “hockey trade” that is unlikely. At the same time, if the team is playing well and in the thick of things it seems likely he’ll make a move for secondary/tertiary type player.
I agree it will be somewhat of a depth trade (or two) but that could be “signifigant” – Granlund for example could cost the 2nd and a prospects – that would be significant and a deal I could see him make.
I really like the way Archibald injects a lot of energy when he’s on the ice. He probably gets a lot of his piss and vinegar from his Dad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgr6p8L4emY&feature=youtu.be
Kinds words sir. Not necessary, but appreciated.
It doesn’t sit well with me that CGY may have an advantage over EDM simply due to parsing data.
The volume of data available to NHL teams is vast (much deeper than public) but I’m also told that most teams don’t do near enough with it that they could.
That doesn’t surprise me.
When I started my business its not like there were not already companies/people filling those needs.
Its always possible to do better than “industry standard”
I don’t know how to make EDM spend some money smartly on this area. I wish I knew.
Its easy to spend money dumbly.
What I show here aren’t “advanced stats” imo.
Its stuff we get from shot and goal volume.
Its tells a lot, but not near what a handful off teams can figure out.
Great post. Thank you.
I’m fine that Benson hasn’t been brought up yet but I think the play is to call him up within the next couple of weeks to give him a test drive before the deadline. If he looks good, you can focus pretty much entirely on bringing in an upgrade on 3C, which should be doable for something a little less than a second round pick.
That would be the ideal deadline for this team, IMO: a small add or two to balance the roster without giving up any valuable futures.
nobody said he was going to be a bust, he was drafted where he was drafted because a) local boy b) local boy that broke Tie Ratties Bantam AAA scoring records….he then pretty much spent the next 4 years hurt…..hard to make a good evaluation on a player with limited playing time…thats why we didn’t want Barzal at #15 in 2015 so the story goes
Why draft him where they drafted him????? because Bob saw him great as a 14 year old, and he is from Edmonton. Having said tha,t the Only 2nd round forward to have significantly outscored Benson is De Brincat who seemed like a no brainer fit with McDavid…..
Dube seemed like a good fit with Draisaitl…..Benson may be the better player than Dube…we don’t know….I think he could have been had in the 3rd round as we had #63 #81 and #91 that year its little mistakes like this that are made over and over again that led to decades of Darkness
Very good post
Many thanks to you and GM for your passion. I have often commented the same about most players being middling, not able to dominate without help, and that comes from the years of reading your insights and the many we in public don’t get to read anymore.
Too kind sir.
Thank you.
I often think of changing hobbies to something that would be more self-fulfilling…….
A couple of side notes here, Chris Snow their AGM in charge of advanced stats has ALS, he is on an experimental drug that has for now, made a big difference in his fight with a very particular type of ALS….many in his family have perished with this awful disease
Eric Francis a horrifically bad journalist here in Calgary wrote an article speculating that Dube would most likely be sent back to the minors as Bennet et el regained their health, Dube was told to get an apartment last week and has seen the last of the AHL….
This is the difference between well informed opinions like Woodguy who uses facts and data to form opinions and pompous goofs Like Francis…he is Calgarys Spec without the charming personality
At least the GM is showing that he values JP, which as a negotiator is absolutely key, and for the org is a sea change of big time beaucoup proportions.