2019-20 Game 51: Blues at Oilers

by Lowetide

There are two storylines worth following tonight and for the rest of the season. First, the drive to the playoffs. Edmonton has a chance to make it and the tumblers are clicking in a good way currently.

Second, the minors has gifted this year’s team with Ethan Bear, Patrick Russell, Caleb Jones and Kailer Yamamoto. Yesterday, injuries to Kris Russell and Joakim Nygard forced Edmonton to recall William Lagesson and Tyler Benson.

If we add them all up, that makes six Condors from a year ago in Edmonton and on the roster. That’s 26 percent of the NHL roster populated by men who were on last season’s AHL team. Even more impressive, some of these players are filling significant roles with the Oilers. A very good sign for the future. This is the kind of farm system envisioned by every general manager since the ‘shared’ system was put in place for 2005-06. So, a small recovery time of only 14 years. Give or take.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I got a text from Wayne Gretzky that I’ve still got saved’: 8 years later, Sam Gagner reflects on his 8-point night.
  • New Lowetide: What’s next for Tyler Benson and William Lagesson after being called up by the Oilers?
  • New Lowetide:  Breaking down the Oilers’ 50-man list at the trade deadline and the changes expected to come
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Now it’s over’: With a new contract in hand, Zack Kassian ready to move on after Matthew Tkachuk fight
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers extend Zack Kassian, betting the power forward can continue to produce with Connor McDavid
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘That’s good for hockey’: Former Oilers weigh in on Battle of Alberta hype ahead of Tkachuk-Kassian meeting
  • Scott Wheeler: Wheeler’s 2020 NHL prospect pool rankings: No. 15 Edmonton Oilers
  • Corey Pronman: Ranking the 2020 NHL Draft top prospects at midseason
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Jonathan Willis: PHWA Midseason Awards: Stars, snubs and what they mean for the year-end NHL Awards
  • Lowetide: Is there real trade deadline value in the Edmonton Oilers’ prospect pipeline?
  • Lowetide: ‘Connor McDavid: Whatever It Takes’ works as breaking news, drama and personality profile
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Lowetide: What do Connor McDavid’s best lines tell us about his optimal linemates?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: I was an AHL coach for a day: Here’s what I learned
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Oilers player poll: From the serious to the silly, the players weigh in on best dressed, most superstitious and more
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
  • LowetideKen Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019

OILERS AFTER 51 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 20-26-5, 45 points; goal differential -22
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 28-15-8, 64 points; goal differential +17
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 23-24-4, 50 points; goal differential -26
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 23-24-4, 50 points; goal differential -14
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 26-18-6, 58 points; goal differential +1

This year’s Oilers have settled in to a unique area compared to the previous four teams. Clearly still in the race, but without the handsome goal differential of the 2016-17 team. If the Oilers were to grab a point per game now through the end of the season, a quiet run to be sure, the final point total would be 90. It’s been a good season compared to the past.

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Current 10 games: 0-0-0

Edmonton needs to tear off another six or seven win run here in the next few weeks. Puts them in a good spot at the deadline and allows some breathing room for post-deadline craziness.

OILERS IN JANUARY

  • Oilers in January 2016: 4-3-2, 10 points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in January 2017: 6-3-0, 12 points; goal differential +1
  • Oilers in January 2018: 4-5-0, eight points; goal differential -13
  • Oilers in January 2019: 5-4-0, 10 points; goal differential -3
  • Oilers in January 2020: 5-1-2, 12 points; goal differential +7

It’s the final game of the month and this year’s group owns the goal differential. A point tonight also gives them the point edge over teams of yester-me, yester-you, yesterday.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

  • On the road to: BUF, BOS, TOR, MTL, CAL (Expected 2-2-1) (Actual 3-1-1)
  • At home to: NAS, ARI, CAL, STL (Expected 1-2-1) (2-0-1)
  • Overall expected result: 3-4-2, eight points in nine games
  • Current results: 5-1-2, 12 points in eight games

Absolutely smoked my prediction, left me stranded on the lost highway. I’ve looked at February. There are 14 games. That’s all I have to say until tomorrow.

2019-20 EDMONTON OILERS

Since Yamamoto arrived in time for the December 31 game, the Neal-McDavid-Kassian line has played 83:13, has a 53.38 percent Corsi for (all numbers five on five), 57.30 percent shot differential and has outscored opponents 4-3.

The Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto line has played 102:01 together, going 48.56 Corsi, 51.85 shot differential and 8-2 goals.

This puzzle is starting to come together.

Benson’s arrival may allow for more pieces to fit. Can’t wait to see where they place him. My guess is he and Lagesson won’t dress tonight and that Gaetan Haas and Caleb Jones draw in for the injured Joakim Nygard and the concussed Kris Russell.

BOB MCKENZIE’S LIST

The McKenzie list is out! That’s always a good thing. It gives us an idea about the top of the draft. Here’s BM’s top 10 and mine side by side.

The top two picks match, and in fact the first eight names are identical, with a lot of order shuffle. There’s no way Edmonton has a chance at any of these players unless they falter in the second half. Oilers currently draft No. 16, but when the games in hand are factored in, more like No. 20. Here’s 11-20:

The Oilers will be drafting near the end of this group in my opinion. Although I don’t have him in my top 20 (No. 22), Jack Quinn is a player who is both worthy of selection in this range and an ideal solution for Edmonton’s needs.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’s Friday and Super Bowl weekend, so this will be a fun show. TSN1260 at 10 this morning. At 10:20, Reid Fowler from Draft Kings will talk Chiefs and 49ers. Matt Iwanyk will touch base at 11, we’ll talk Super Bowl and Oilers-Blues. You can text 10-1260 with opinions, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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OriginalPouzar

I wasn’t the one that called him a 10 year pro to start.

jp

Yegfoundation,

OriginalPouzar: I’ll take the more skilled and talented player who is also not shy to engage and not a shrinking violet over the 10 year pro who has proven in that decade to be a career AHLer – teeener at best.

Colby Cave turned 25 since Christmas. This is his 5th pro season.

I’d prefer Benson too though.

jimmers2

Lowetide,

That name is a blast from the past. Big, physical skills, raw. As I recall he missed a lot of development time. A look on line reminds that he lost a whole college hockey season because of a transfer issue, another from mono and then he broke a leg? Then he decided to make sure he finished his schooling while he could, Mr. Caron likely has a good head on his shoulders.

His comparability to Benson in terms of development time lost points out how well Benson has done, and how talented he is. to have come back to this point.

OriginalPouzar

I assumeTip doesn’t go to Miikko in back to back with travel but we’ll see.

I know most want JJ sat for Benny but I think I’d take Russell out.

A Russelll-less lineup perhaps?

Woodguy v2.0

GMB3:
Can someone who is old enough to remember tell me why the Edmonton Oilers drafted a prep school hockey player by the name of Ed Caron 52nd overall instead of a guy with 1.6 points per game in the OHL by the name of Jason Pominville?

Jesus. It’s like they weren’t even trying.

Ed Carron – 6’2″ 230lbs

Jason Pomminville – 5’11” 180lbs – from QMJHL

Same reason all the teams passed on Mangiapane 5 times (some 6) despite him scoring 1.53 pts/gm in the OHL.

GMB3

Can someone who is old enough to remember tell me why the Edmonton Oilers drafted a prep school hockey player by the name of Ed Caron 52nd overall instead of a guy with 1.6 points per game in the OHL by the name of Jason Pominville?

Jesus. It’s like they weren’t even trying.

Mayan Oil

If Leon plays like this tomorrow, I’m thinking there won’t be too many “dry saddles” in the Calgary dressing room..

That one is so bad I think I need a shower.

rickithebear

Did my usual mid season 68% std deviation check.
(Ev min) – ( No. Dpairs)
– 1 std Dev spring evga/60/ median Dpair evga/60/ + 1 std depressed.

I choose 17 min to start cause that is Benning – Jones Pr total.

(17 min) (615)
98th Pr 1.11 / 307th Pr 2.51 / 515th Pr 4.32

(38 min) (439)
71 Pr 1.41 / 220 Pr 2.57 / 369 Pr 3.83

(58.5 min) (346)
56th Pr 1.61 / 173rd Pr 2.53 / 290th Pr 3.58

(80 min) (278)
45 Pr 1.68 / 139 Pr 2.56 / 233 Pr 3.56

(100 min) (240 Pr)
38 Pr 1.68 / 120 Pr 2.51 / 202 Pr 3.51

(125 min) (197 Pr)
31st Pr 1.77 / 98th Pr 2.48 / 144 th Pr 3.32

At this pt I am comfortable with all approx. 60 min prs

Russell – Benning 172:25 0.70 evga/60
Manning – Benning 72:52 0.82 evga/60
Klefbom – Bear 105:49 1.13 evga/60
Klefbom – Russell 159:43 1.50 evga/60
Russell – Larsson 94:43 1.90 evga/60
Nurse – Russell 59:43 2.02 evga/60
Russel – Jones 172:04 2.09 evga/60
————————————————— 5 of 7 Dpairs better than 2.53 have Russell a DEFENCEman.
Klefbom – Larsson 2.80 evga/60
Klefbom – Did my usual mid season 68% std deviation check.
(Ev min) – ( No. Dpairs)
– 1 std Dev spring evga/60/ median Dpair evga/60/ + 1 std depressed.

I choose 17 min to start cause that is Benning – Jones Pr total.

(17 min) (615)
98th Pr 1.11 / 307th Pr 2.51 / 515th Pr 4.32

(38 min) (439)
71 Pr 1.41 / 220 Pr 2.57 / 369 Pr 3.83

(58.5 min) (346)
56th Pr 1.61 / 173rd Pr 2.53 / 290th Pr 3.58

(80 min) (278)
45 Pr 1.68 / 139 Pr 2.56 / 233 Pr 3.56

(100 min) (240 Pr)
38 Pr 1.68 / 120 Pr 2.51 / 202 Pr 3.51

(125 min) (197 Pr)
31st Pr 1.77 / 98th Pr 2.48 / 144 th Pr 3.32

At this pt I am comfortable with all approx. 60 min prs

Russell – Benning 172:25 0.70 evga/60
Manning – Benning 72:52 0.82 evga/60
Klefbom – Bear 105:49 1.13 evga/60
Klefbom – Russell 159:43 1.50 evga/60
————————————————- Better than 1 +ve std dev. 1.60
Russell – Larsson 94:43 1.90 evga/60
Nurse – Russell 59:43 2.02 evga/60
Russel – Jones 172:04 2.09 evga/60
————————————————— 5 of 7 Dpairs better than 2.53 have Russell a DEFENCEman.
Klefbom – Larsson 342:24 2.80 evga/60
Klefbom – Persson 163:13 2.94 evga/60
Nurse – Bear 819:54 3.51 evga/60
———————————————— greater than 1 – ve STD dev 3.58
Klefbom – Jones 112:04 4.28 evga/60

3 of 4 bellow median prs have Klefbom.

Dpairs with greater than 125 min together
Nurse and bear are worse than 1 – ve std deviation
Brutal!
Boat Anchor!
Rover Hell!

Godot!
PB Russell.

That is embarrassing buddy!
Defencemen play defence and try to prevent shots that have a chance of going in.
Not just prevent shots but keeping them at distance were the ones that get thru are not scoreable.

Then they try to get it on the blade of 310 forwards much better at scoring evg than almost all the rovers and Dmen.

godot10

OriginalPouzar: What did you think about his rover play last game that cost a big goal against?

One might be able to blame it on the concussion. Which is maybe why they put him on IR.

It was sort of bizarre seeing Russell go walkabout.

godot10

linkfromhyrule:
Can they manage without KR?

A couple more games from Jones and Benning like this one, and Kris Russell becomes the pressbox defensemen.

Benning is an upper tier, arguably elite 3rd pairing D. He made it far easier for Jones because he plays a “normal” game, unlike Russell who is an irregular.

Reja

If I’m Tippett I come right back with Kosh he had relatively light work load and let Smith go at his old team in the Desert. If we can win these 2 we’re on our way.

Yegfoundation

OriginalPouzar: I’ll disagree.I know what Cave brings.

Teams that have the likes of Colby Cave in their lineup are not NHL playoff teams, in my opinion.

Colby Cave plays NHL games down the stretch for non playoff teams that have “sold” at the deadline and are shutting down injured NHL player.

In my opinion.

Thanks! And, you may very well be correct. I hope the Oilers come out Ok tomorrow evening. Cave may not be the answer but I’d like a couple more crafty vets for this game.

rickithebear

OriginalPouzar: What did you think about his rover play last game that cost a big goal against?

First game back?

I will have to watch the video.

You know my answer to any play like that.

Low% +ve goal diff hockey is fucking stupid!

+ve goal diff human machine mechanics.

That is what all my theories are about.

The video, SOE, and +ve & -ve goal diff% tell me what to write.

OP:

You remember my false eye affect theory.
Most fans use a small number of memorable plays to define a player rather than a per 25 or 250 shift rate for forwards and a per 30 or 300 shift rate per Dmen.

IF you can find a 3rd Dpair that crushes even play at evga/60.
It iallows the other 2 Dpair to have a larger level of evga/60 and still be competative.

Reja

Oz:
Well Mcleod did not see much ice time in the third, but I firmly believe Woodcroft does notsee as much valueas i do ?Seriously this is the forward that I see that has the most potential, fast, strong defensively, will go to the dirty areas, but I admit does not have scoring touch I would like to see, and that is something you have or do not have. Is it linemates or is it not there?
Please consider the source, this from from a Pickleball player ??

Paging Todd Marchant.

Reja

If J.J doesn’t step up to the plate tomorrow I hope Holland packages him with D or draft choice to acquire someone with more gumption that can put the pill in the net.

linkfromhyrule

OriginalPouzar:
Neal is doubtful for tomorrow with his foot.

Paging: Tyler Benson.

I would never say an injury to any of our players is a good thing, but it’s fortunate in a way that these injuries have forced the Org’s hand.

It gives several players an opportunity. Here’s hoping they run with it. It will benefit Ken Holland to have a better idea about what the up and comers are capable of.

Can they manage without KR?

Can Benson, Lagesson, Jones fill roles for cheap?

Hopefully he will be watching closely and this will inform the off-season plan.

That second line is honestly the key to the playoffs. Yamo is belonging, and then some!

Bulging Twine

Gambardella moves up to take Benson’s spot alongside Granlund and Currie and gets a goal and an assist

OriginalPouzar

Oz:
OP your thoughts ?

On McLeod tonight or in general?

Didn’t see the Condors game tonight as I’m travelling and on a plane currently but can provide general thoughts from my viewings over the season.

Ice Sage

Bulging Twine:
Horrific defensive play by Faulk on Draisatl’s 2nd goal.

Lots of D (and casual observers) have been fooled by Drai’s straight-line acceleration

Bulging Twine

Ice Sage: Lots of D (and casual observers) have been fooled by Drai’s straight-line acceleration

Big guys hey? They may be going faster than they look as they take those long powerful strides.

Faulk inexplicably came across the ice to double cover Yamamoto when he was clearly Pietrangelo’s guy. Yamamoto smartly saw that he was leaving Leon and sent the sweet pass over to Leon who barried it. PeeWee hockey.

Oz

OP your thoughts ?

Oz

Well Mcleod did not see much ice time in the third, but I firmly believe Woodcroft does not see as much value as i do ? Seriously this is the forward that I see that has the most potential, fast, strong defensively, will go to the dirty areas, but I admit does not have scoring touch I would like to see, and that is something you have or do not have. Is it linemates or is it not there?
Please consider the source, this from from a Pickleball player ??

geowal

Material Elvis: Larsson is the master of the deadpan interview technique.

He’s also never afraid of Hunter.

Leroy Draisdale

I can confirm this is true

GordieHoweHatTrick

Material Elvis: Larsson is the master of the deadpan interview technique.

I was worried he might faint.

DevilsLettuce

If the Gords have any mercy Colby Cave will never suit up for the Oilers again unless he has a summer of TB12 and returns a 6’4 5 star quarterback. Then ok maybe, let’s humor it.

OriginalPouzar

Yegfoundation:
OriginalPouzar,

I’m going to assume Benson would be comparatively inexperienced in dealing with sneaky dirty pro’s like Gio/Tcachuk/Lucic/Rinaldo.

Cave would know how to play that game real well.

I hope Benson has a fantastic game tomorrow evening and i’m excited to watch him play.

I’d take Cave over Benson, for tomorrow evenings Flames match-up, if given the choice.

I’ll disagree. I know what Cave brings.

Teams that have the likes of Colby Cave in their lineup are not NHL playoff teams, in my opinion.

Colby Cave plays NHL games down the stretch for non playoff teams that have “sold” at the deadline and are shutting down injured NHL player.

In my opinion.

OriginalPouzar

Neal is doubtful for tomorrow with his foot.

Paging: Tyler Benson.

Reja

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
Reja,

You’re on a roll with the predictions.

Might be time to change your name to “Oracle.”

Every time Leon the Maschine scores and shuts up the fair-weather fans a Angel gets its wings.

Material Elvis

Derek:
I think poor Adam had a stroke in the middle of this interview, just let him go Gene.

Larsson is the master of the deadpan interview technique.

Material Elvis

Side:
‘Disastrous Oilers draft pick with bird bones who is too small and will never be in the NHL’ Kailer Yamamoto had another terrific game.

Solid game.That nickname has a nice ring to it.

Oz

Just tuned in to the Condors game, hoping to see McLeod have a great period

OriginalPouzar

Let’s get Archie resigned to 2 years at a nominal raise.

Victoria Oil

I don’t think much of a raise, if any, is required. A two year, one way contract and the job security that comes with it should be sufficient for a player like Archibald at this stage of his career.

flyfish1168

Richard Roma,

He is plain and simple a dirty player. It’s unfortunate the player safety guy Parros is to stupid to realize the game has evolved and he has not caught up with it yet.

Yegfoundation

OriginalPouzar,

I’m going to assume Benson would be comparatively inexperienced in dealing with sneaky dirty pro’s like Gio/Tcachuk/Lucic/Rinaldo.

Cave would know how to play that game real well.

I hope Benson has a fantastic game tomorrow evening and i’m excited to watch him play.

I’d take Cave over Benson, for tomorrow evenings Flames match-up, if given the choice.

Bulging Twine

Horrific defensive play by Faulk on Draisatl’s 2nd goal.

Material Elvis

Great game by the team. Khaira and P.Russell are non-factors. I’d get Benson in on the McDavid line, put Archie down with Sheahan and sit Khaira or Russell.

Richard Roma

Just caught a quote from denialist Giordano,

Giordano is a piece of shit modern day Marchment.

Let’s hope that old dude retires before he destroys any more knees.

OriginalPouzar

Yegfoundation:
Tomorrow evening feels like it could be a nasty game where a 10 year pro veteran who has been through all the battles would have value.

I’ll take the more skilled and talented player who is also not shy to engage and not a shrinking violet over the 10 year pro who has proven in that decade to be a career AHLer – teeener at best.

JimmyV1965

The biggest win of the season. Wow!!! The first three games coming off break was a brutal stretch and they’ve got three of four points so far. Amazing. Come on Holland, get a winger for McDavid and this team can do some damage.

OriginalPouzar

We have different definitions of pisscutter.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Having an effective “top 6” (2 forward lines that consistently present an offensive threat) is critical to the success of this team.

Solid game all around. I would give at least passing grades to just about all of them, except unfortunately JJ continues to struggle.

If Neal is out tomorrow as well, It would be cool to see Benson with at least a few shifts on L1?

who

OriginalPouzar: A pisscutter – both he and Archie.

Not too sure about the Archie part.
I don’t think he has the hands or offensive brain to play with McDavid. Would prefer Gagner in that spot.

Paulie

Did anyone miss Russell

Material Elvis

Ricki.

OriginalPouzar

BornInAGretzkyJersey:
I like that at least twice I saw him finish his checks against Bouwmeester along the boards.And also get flattened by Steen, but point is he can play a man’s game against the best of ’em.

My question is durability playing that way – I’d have that question if he was a regular sized player as well.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

In jiu-jitsu we had a saying, “position before submission.”

So, if he doesn’t go out of his way to make a big hit and put himself in a vulnerable spot, he should be fine. My guess is slashes to the hands/wrists will be one of his biggest threats. Although shoulders or neck can be susceptible if hit from behind often/hard enough.

Yegfoundation

Benson in for Russell tomorrow evening.

Am I wrong in wishing that it was Colby Cave instead of Benson going in tomorrow versus the flames?

OriginalPouzar

Yes.

Yegfoundation

Tomorrow evening feels like it could be a nasty game where a 10 year pro veteran who has been through all the battles would have value.

OriginalPouzar

rickithebear:
Nice to see the leagues Best evga/60 dman is back!
But we are missing his #1 evga/60 Dpartner.

Why can’t we have our 3 cup core roster Dmen at the same time with this coach.

What did you think about his rover play last game that cost a big goal against?

who

Paulie:
Koski had a strong game after playing once in the past 3 years. Important development.

I know we will see Smith tomorrow but I really hope this convinces Tippett that Koskinen is #1.
Koskinen needs to start 2/3 of the games down the stretch.

Oz

Koski has had plenty of rest, I would put him back in against the Flames

OriginalPouzar

Richard Roma: He’s a little buzz saw.

A pisscutter – both he and Archie.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Reja,

You’re on a roll with the predictions.

Might be time to change your name to “Oracle.”

russ99

That was a fantastic period. We play like that, the Flames are toast, fluky goals or not.