2019-20 Game 53 Oilers at Coyotes

by Lowetide

The Oilers arrived in the Sonoran Desert with no passengers and a gigantic amount of momentum. The nature of the Pacific Division this season suggests that counts for doodly squat, but my goodness the Oilers were impressive last week in Alberta. Can this team keep it going?

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
  • New Lowetide: Oilers’ 2016 draft and the value of waiting five years
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I got a text from Wayne Gretzky that I’ve still got saved’: 8 years later, Sam Gagner reflects on his 8-point night.
  • Lowetide: What’s next for Tyler Benson and William Lagesson after being called up by the Oilers?
  • Lowetide:  Breaking down the Oilers’ 50-man list at the trade deadline and the changes expected to come
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Now it’s over’: With a new contract in hand, Zack Kassian ready to move on after Matthew Tkachuk fight
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers extend Zack Kassian, betting the power forward can continue to produce with Connor McDavid
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘That’s good for hockey’: Former Oilers weigh in on Battle of Alberta hype ahead of Tkachuk-Kassian meeting
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Lowetide: Is there real trade deadline value in the Edmonton Oilers’ prospect pipeline?
  • Lowetide: ‘Connor McDavid: Whatever It Takes’ works as breaking news, drama and personality profile
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Lowetide: What do Connor McDavid’s best lines tell us about his optimal linemates?
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
  • Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Josh Archibald, Riley Sheahan show the upward trend of Ken Holland’s offseason moves for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Post-Christmas performance spike has Evan Bouchard pushing for an NHL job with the Oilers
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
  • LowetideKen Holland’s targets for his first trade deadline with the Oilers.
  • Lowetide: Ken Holland’s trade deadline options for the Oilers
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019

OILERS AFTER 53 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 21-27-5, 47 points; goal differential -21
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 28-17-8, 64 points; goal differential +12
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 23-26-4, 50 points; goal differential -28
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 23-25-5, 51 points; goal differential -19
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 28-18-6, 62 points; goal differential +7

Edmonton’s most recent run (8-2-2 in the last 12) and spike in goal differential create a handsome record through 52 games. With 30 games to go, the Oilers could tread water (point per game) and finish with 92 points. Don’t recommend it.

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Current 10 games: 2-0-0

Easy to get greedy, but this season’s 10-game segments have just one clunker and the current 10 is off to a tremendous start.

OILERS IN FEBRUARY

  • Oilers in February 2016: 1-1-0, two points; goal differential -4
  • Oilers in February 2017: 0-2-0, 0 points; goal differential -3
  • Oilers in February 2018: 1-0-1, three points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in February 2019: 0-0-2, two points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in February 2020: 1-0-0, two points; goal differential +5

Edmonton in February has had some success, but early in the month during the McDavid era is a mixed bag. Check out the playoff team and 0-2! None of the four previous clubs hit it out of the park, so opportunity knocks.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0)
  • On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1)
  • At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
  • At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 1-0-0, two points in one game

I have the Oilers grabbing 17 points this month, if this group delivers it will be the most successful February since 97 arrived. The 2015-16 (7 points in 14 games), 2016-17 (12 points in 12 games), 2017-18 (11 points in 13 games) and 2018-19 (12 points in 14 games) editions all failed to exceed a point per game.

OILERS 2019-20

No idea about James Neal or Tyler Benson, we do know coaches don’t like to mess with a lineup that is winning. I would run Koskinen out there tonight, but Dave Tippett has shown a preference for Smith. Question: Is Yamamoto the next forward to reach 10 goals?

2019-20 BAKERSFIELD CONDORS

We haven’t chatted about the Condors since the Benson recall, partly because there is now a ‘last one out turn off the lights’ feel to this year’s team. Beyond Evan Bouchard and Dmitri Samorukov, who do you count as a strong prospect? I’ll suggest Stuart Skinner is spiking right now, Ryan McLeod and Kirill Maksimov are showing some signs. There isn’t a lot left now that Yamamoto, Benson, Jones and Lagesson have flown the coop. Jay Woodcroft and his brilliant staff have their work cut out for them this season. Thanks to Wilde for lines and pairings.

TONIGHT

Teams get into these good grooves and want to ride them for a long time. I don’t know that the Oilers win tonight, Arizona is a talented team. However, when a team comes to the end of a winning streak, there are usually signs that fortunes are about to turn. Lucky plays, bad habits, heroic goalies sometimes extend a winning streak even though the team has stopped playing well.

None of that is in evidence with this team. The Edmonton Oilers are playing well. Full stop.

TRADE DEADLINE

Although we agreed long ago about the (lack of) value in winning faceoffs, it can be a royal pain in the ass for about eight seconds when you lose them. This season’s centers have been good, bad and indifferent in the dot: Leon Draisaitl 50. 5 percent in 864 sorties; Riley Sheahan 50.1 percent in 55 sorties; Connor McDavid 47.0 percent in 525 sorties; Nuge leading the way with 50.9 percent winning percentage but has only entered the battle 381 times.

Gaetan Haas is the outlier, just 40.5 percent in 304 attempts. I think the Oilers will be looking for a faceoff man at the deadline.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

A packed show today, TSN1260, starting at 10 this morning. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will preview tonight’s game from the Edmonton side, we’ll chat about that killer second line, the third pairing and Tyler Benson’s possible debut. Andrew Peard and Corey Graham pop in at 11 to talk Edmonton Oil Kings, Sebastian Cossa, Jake Neighbours and the next OK game on Friday. Craig Morgan from The Athletic Arizona joins us at 11:20 to chat Taylor Hall, injuries and this crazy Pacific Division. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Woodguy v2.0

WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Central
STL 17
COL 12
DAL 12

Pacific
VAN 12
EDM 10
CGY 7

Wildcard
VGP 7
ARI 5

Out of playoffs
NSH 4
CHI 4
WPG 3
MIN 1
SJS -5
ANA -5
LAK -10

Relevant games tonight:

EDM (+105) at ARI (-125) – Could be a trap game but Tippett seems to get them past that. A ton of value on EDM here.

VAN (+170) at BOS (-200) – VAN might be value at this price. Two teams getting well above average goaltending

VGP (+150) at TBY (-170) – VGP in tough here. Their fancies are sliding since the coaching change as well.

CHI (+105) at MIN (-125) – CHI is value here, but the EDM fan in me wants MIN to win to keep the wildcard number low

NSH (-130) at WPG (+110) – Line looks right. Like MIN, want WPG to win to keep the wildcard number low

SJS (+165) at CGY (-190) – SJS with a bit of value imo. SJS’s fancies has increase almost the same as VGP’s have decreased since the coaching change…..hmmmmmm

Andy Dufresne

With Neal injured, its just a matter of time before Benson drwas in.

For intents and purposes, we know have two first lines

Based on recent play,

Line one RNH – Draisaitl – Yamamoto

Line Two XXX – McDavid – Kassian

Given that, again, for all intents and purposes, Yamamoto joined the battle being inserted on our top line, is it out of the question that Benson plays his fiest NHL game on the second line

Benson – McDavid – Kassian

Which game??

Tuesday, Feb. 4 • 8 p.m. at Arizona Coyotes

Thursday, Feb. 6 • 7 p.m. vs. San Jose Sharks

Saturday, Feb. 8 • 5 p.m. vs. Nashville Predators

Tuesday, Feb. 11 • 7 p.m. Chicago Blackhawks

Thursday, Feb. 13 • 5 p.m. at Tampa Bay Lightning

Saturday, Feb. 15 • 2 p.m. at Florida Panthers

Sunday, Feb. 16 • 2 p.m. at Carolina Hurricanes

Wednesday, Feb. 19 • 6:30 p.m. vs. Boston Bruins

Friday, Feb. 21 • 7 p.m. vs. Minnesota Wild

Sunday, Feb. 23 • 8 p.m. at Los Angeles Kings

Tuesday, Feb. 25 • 8 p.m. at Anaheim Ducks

Wednesday, Feb. 26 • 8:30 p.m. at Vegas Golden Knights

Saturday, Feb. 29 • 8 p.m. vs. Winnipeg Jets

Woodguy v2.0

That ARI time is wrong.

Game is 7pm MST.

ARI is on the same time as MST during the winter.

The Score, NHL.com etc all have the game at 7pm MST

jtblack

Thx. I had already warned wifey that the “Oilers play @ 8 p.m ”

7 it is !

Marlowe

Haha! I do the same thing, although I’m in CST so I “booked” the TV for 8pm. She’s gotta fit in The Bachelor before then!

Woodguy v2.0

EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Metropolitan
WSH 22
PIT 19
NYI 14

Atlantic
BOS 21
TBY 17
FLA 12

Wildcard
CBJ 12
PHI 12

Out of playoffs
CAR 11
TOR 10
NYR 3
BUF 1
MTL 1
OTT -6
NJD -6
DET -26

-If Andersen is gone for a while sphincters in TOR will get very tight

Relevant wildcard games tonight:

DAL (+105) at NYI (-125) – since DAL didn’t have to change hotels, not sure playing last night is a thing here. I think I like NYI a bit.

FLA (+110) at CBJ (-130) – Travel + no Barkov + Jack Adams on the other side makes me like CBJ

CAR (+120) at STL (-140) – No Hamilton means STL’s forecheck will do damage.

OriginalPouzar

This could be a step back game after the last two being two emotion games against the flames and one against the champs.

Hope they realize it’s another big game.

Assume Mikko starts but who Knows.

Assume it’s the same lineup without Benson but, again, who knows.

Game time at 11pm – not as egregious as midnight with a 530am alarm.

N64

“The Oilers arrived in the Sonoran Desert with no passengers ”

~ When they bring passengers, prefer they bring their Mothers. The Fathers trips are less productive. ~

JimmyV1965

Andy Dufresne:
With Neal injured, its just a matter of time before Benson drwas in.

For intents and purposes, we know have two first lines

Based on recent play,

Line oneRNH – Draisaitl – Yamamoto

Line TwoXXX – McDavid – Kassian

Given that, again, for all intents and purposes, Yamamoto joined the battle being inserted on our top line, is it out of the question that Benson plays his fiest NHL game on the second line

Benson – McDavid – Kassian

Which game??

Tuesday, Feb. 4 • 8 p.m. at Arizona Coyotes

Thursday, Feb. 6 • 7 p.m. vs. San Jose Sharks

Saturday, Feb. 8 • 5 p.m. vs. Nashville Predators

Tuesday, Feb. 11 • 7 p.m. Chicago Blackhawks

Thursday, Feb. 13 • 5 p.m. at Tampa Bay Lightning

Saturday, Feb. 15 • 2 p.m. at Florida Panthers

Sunday, Feb. 16 • 2 p.m. at Carolina Hurricanes

Wednesday, Feb. 19 • 6:30 p.m. vs. Boston Bruins

Friday, Feb. 21 • 7 p.m. vs. Minnesota Wild

Sunday, Feb. 23 • 8 p.m. at Los Angeles Kings

Tuesday, Feb. 25 • 8 p.m. at Anaheim Ducks

Wednesday, Feb. 26 • 8:30 p.m. at Vegas Golden Knights

Saturday, Feb. 29 • 8 p.m. vs. Winnipeg Jets

The McDavid line is still facing the top dmen and shutdown line from each team. I don’t think this is a good spot for a rookie.

Andy Dufresne

NHL teams adjust very quickly to changing circumstances based on recent scouting reports. The RNH-Draisaitl-Yamamoto line will be getting alot of attention as of right now.

McDavid will still draw the best defense pairings based on his speed. But Leons line is going to see some attention from opposing teams checking lines…. imo

Darth Tu

For how long though? Teams are going to start hard matching the Drai-Yam-Hop line soon. McDavid might start getting a little more clear air in the next few games.

JimmyV1965

OriginalPouzar:
This could be a step back game after the last two being two emotion games against the flames and one against the champs.

Hope they realize it’s another big game.

Assume Mikko starts but who Knows.

Assume it’s the same lineup without Benson but, again, who knows.

Game time at 11pm – not as egregious as midnight with a 530am alarm.

If think you and WG are right. Could be a trap game and an emotional letdown. We also beat them 7-3 a couple weeks ago. It’s a big four point game though so hopefully they come ready to play.

Andy Dufresne

F#ck Trap Games!

Trap Game Mentality is for the weak!

The only thing getting caught in a trap tonight is a pack of furry 4 legged varmints*.

Oilers feast on roadkill* in the desert tonight.
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Disclaimer: no actual coyotes were injured in the delivery of this rant. And actual coyotes do not travel in packs …… or ride on team buses.

JimmyV1965

Nice rant. Love it!!

Andy Dufresne

Battle of Alberta aside, in the new NHL, there are no easy games. You are just as likely to lose to a team that is out of a playoff position as you are to lose to a team who is in a playoff position.

The Feb schedule looks a little easier than the Dec or Jan schedules, BUT IT IS NOT.

Have the Oilers learned the thing Tippett refered to as “The December Lesson”. Are they prepared to treat every game as equally important? Are they prepared to play Tippett Style Hockey against every opponent large and small?

Are we going to avoid the mistakes of the past, where we would lose repeatedly to the lowly Buffalo Sabres etc.

Are we prepared to take the Detroit Red Wings as seriously as we do the our divisional rivals?

Are we ready to come out “guns ablazing” against the Coyotes? Or are we coming in with a mentality that says “they’re injury depleted” and they havent won a game in their last 5?

We thought we saw a glimpse of the 80’s Oilers on Saturday? The 80’s Oilers would feast on the Coyotes tonight. There would be no “emotional let down”. If we had a 3 goal lead we would want 4, a 4 goal lead we would want 5.

Have we found our identity in the work ethic, grit and none stop motor of a 21 yr old American National Kailer Yamamoto, or the sublime leadership, skill and all round play of the NHL’s leading point getter, German National, Leon Draisaitl?

Are we finally a team? The Team that the worlds greatest player deserves to be surrounded by.

These are the questions that we put to the month of February.

jtblack

“You are just as likely to lose to a team that is out of a playoff position as you are to lose to a team who is in a playoff position.”

Thats not correct Just look at the odds WG posts everyday.

Andy Dufresne

F#ck You “thats not correct”! Get on the Train or get the F#ck out of the way!

Either way…I dont care!

Train Kept a Rollin !
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just kiddin about the F U parts JT…..I’m trying to stay in character…. 🙂 … shh…dont tell the others..

Litke 94

This made me want to run through a wall. Thank you.

Andy Dufresne

And run through a wall we will !!! If thats what it takes to win!
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and thank you.
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Glad you LITKE it < just cant resist using this line 🙂 …even though technically it makes no sense

Wonder Llama

Me too – it’s like an Oilers-based St. Crispin’s Day speech.

Jaxon

I’m a day late on this post as it applies more to yesterday’s blog. Apologies. I have a made a spreadsheet of Oilers clusters which uses a very generalized theory about when different positions mature. The idea that goalies often take longest and forwards often mature faster as pros, with D somewhere in the middle.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W9kRR02jI_Hfze-kDH4uRPgQao3QthQKj373RpleDnI/edit?usp=sharing

I think this sheet give s a good visual of prime years in the yellow, orange and red highlights.

Edmonton is very well set up for this year and the following 6 or 7 years depending on who they can keep. But in 21-22 and 22-23 they will be on fire as leading cup contenders. The number of impact players who are entering their “pro”, “prime”, and “young vet” years will be at a high. The only place they may need help as Koskinen ages is in net where most of the goalies in their system may not be mature enough yet to handle a starting position or even backup a team to a cup.

EDIT:
Pink font = last year of current RFA contract
Yellow font = last year of current UFA contract
Grey Font = not signed

Wonder Llama

That’s really cool – great job!

tileguy

jtblack:
Thx.I had already warned wifey that the “Oilers play @ 8 p.m ”

7 it is !

Lol, there must be about 50000 of us that will be doing that every second night now.
Edit; is that a realistic number, anybody know how many people watch an Oilers game on tv per night?

pts2pndr

Yours may be a conservative number. This team isn’t perfect but having said that we have our best overall 7 D in a long long time. We are getting very close to LT’s balance photo.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

I think the Oilers clap the Coyotes tonight. The second the opponents start keying on Draisaitl’s line, McDavid goes nuclear. That’s how depth works, and we finally have some semblance of it up front (thank you Baby Jesus for #56’s arrival). You can’t really get the matchup you want on both lines, so one of them should burn you. Just like Pens teams that won cups with Sid and Gino. Hell, just like Oilers heyday with Gretz and Mess!!

I might still bee riding the high of Saturday night too, but these are fun times!

Andy Dufresne

^ “I might still bee riding the high of Saturday night”

still Buzzing………. 🙂

pts2pndr

U bees right on the honey

giddy

I think the characterization that this game may be an emotional letdown where the boys don’t take it too serious is a farce.

Lets not forget this is the team that Dave Tippett coached for eight straight years. If there is one thing coaches love, its beating their former teams in their own barn.

doritogrande

Anyone else a little concerned about the deployment of McLeod in Bakersfield? Everyone and their mother knows he’s got the defensive-minded game to play in a checking role, what we don’t know is his offensive outer marker. Should be playing with Granlund if the intent is to develop skill.

Andy Dufresne

I take your point.

I am not concerned right now. I think the Oilers have McLeod on an 18 month plan. He may not even see the NHL next season.

If the dynamic you’re pointing to were to continue into the 2020-21 season, then yes, it would be of significant concern.

Offense aside, Granlund has some things to teach to Benson.

pts2pndr

Look at it as honing his defensive skills and the mechanics of a defensive line. He is I believe, our third line centre for the next 7 to 10 years.

ArmchairGM

NHL defensemen ranked by current contract cap hit percentage:

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit-percent/all/defense&display=caphit-percent&hide=salary

A 7.8% cap hit ($6.5M salary / $83M cap) would be the 32nd highest cap hit % on this list, but it doesn’t include the extensions for Josi, Faulk, Chabot and Spurgeon, making it 36th. That’s solidly 1st-pairing territory.

Recent signings in the range of 7.8%:

Josi: 10.9% x 8* all contracts set to begin in 2020-21 are calculated with an estimated $83M cap.
Trouba: 9.8% x 7
Chabot: 9.8% x 8*
Spurgeon: 9.1% x 7*
Provorov: 8.1% x 6
Dumba: 7.6% x 5
Morrissey: 7.5% x 8*
Parayko: 7.3% x 5
Krug: 7.2% x 4
Lindell: 7.1% x 6
Slavin: 7.1% x 7
Theodore: 6.5% x 7
Hanifin: 6.2% x 6
Girard: 6.1% x 7

Looking at this list, I don’t think the Oilers have a single defenseman on the roster today who can realistically demand more than about $6M (7.2%) on a long-term deal.

Darth Tu

So, let’s call it $6.5 mill and be happy when that’s what happens?

Andy Dufresne

Happy is $5.2 mill.. 🙂

$6.2 mill .. we congratulate Nurse….accept it and move on.

Andy Dufresne

Nice work. Thank You!

I wonder if the fact that the Oilers best defencemen are both on value contracts has any bearing on Nurse personally?

I love money as much as the next guy….but imo….if you love the game, the team your on, and your team-mates (all of which Nurse claims to do) then while you want to “get paid” fairly, you dont want to price yourself in such as way that your under-performing you team-mates while getting paid significantly more. Trust me. This can create friction isn dressing rooms.

I think Nurse is going to be reasonable. Despite what his agents tell him they can “squeeze” out of Holland.

godot10

Klefbom wasn’t forced to take a bridge deal like Nurse. Nurse needs to catch up.

Third pairing D coming out of their entry level are getting paid mid $4.5 million on long term deals.

The opportunity to sign Nurse in the fives was lost when the Oilers transitioned him.

You delay. You pay.

pts2pndr

Penny wise pound foolish. There are times to play hard ball but they missed the timing on Nurse. Screw me once bad on you. Screw me twice bad on me. Nurse is going to get paid. I hope Nurse and the team come up with a fair and equitable solution.

N64

Good catch. Nice to see capfriendly reports using the cap hit % at signing. Fans underestimate current value when they use old signing $ figures.

defmn

JimmyV1965: If think you and WG are right. Could be a trap game and an emotional letdown. We also beat them 7-3 a couple weeks ago. It’s a big four point game though so hopefully they come ready to play.

I think part of the maturity of a team is measured in games like this.

As a team grows it first of all has to prove to itself that it can win against the top teams.

After that it has to master not losing games that it should win.

Andy Dufresne

Ive been saying it for years. When the Oilers learn that they are not measured by the best team they beat, but rather by the weakest team they lose to, then they will have learned the lesson.

#GrabThePebbleFromMyHandGrasshopper

Andy Dufresne

Hey Everybody. LT’s on the Radio in 5 minutes !

jtblack

ArmchairGM:
NHL defensemen ranked by current contract cap hit percentage:

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit-percent/all/defense&display=caphit-percent&hide=salary

A 7.8% cap hit ($6.5M salary / $83M cap) would be the 32nd highest cap hit % on this list, but it doesn’t include the extensions for Josi, Faulk, Chabot and Spurgeon, making it 36th. That’s solidly 1st-pairing territory.

Recent signings in the range of 7.8%:

Josi: 10.9% x 8* all contracts set to begin in 2020-21 are calculated with an estimated $83M cap.
Trouba: 9.8% x 7
Chabot: 9.8% x 8*
Spurgeon: 9.1% x 7*
Provorov: 8.1% x 6
Dumba: 7.6% x 5
Morrissey: 7.5% x 8*
Parayko: 7.3% x 5
Krug: 7.2% x 4
Lindell: 7.1% x 6
Slavin: 7.1% x 7
Theodore: 6.5% x 7
Hanifin: 6.2% x 6
Girard: 6.1% x 7

Looking at this list, I don’t think the Oilers have a single defenseman on the roster today who can realistically demand more than about $6M (7.2%) on a long-term deal.

Please Email this to Ken asap.

Andy Dufresne

“Question: Is Yamamoto the next forward to reach 10 goals?”

Yes. Yes he is.
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or was that a rhetorical question 🙂

slopitch

Any word on OEL’s injury?

Andy Dufresne

Yay?
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just kidding….i never cheer an injury….. hurt and miss the rest of the game yes…injury no

OriginalPouzar

ArmchairGM:
NHL defensemen ranked by current contract cap hit percentage:

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit-percent/all/defense&display=caphit-percent&hide=salary

A 7.8% cap hit ($6.5M salary / $83M cap) would be the 32nd highest cap hit % on this list, but it doesn’t include the extensions for Josi, Faulk, Chabot and Spurgeon, making it 36th. That’s solidly 1st-pairing territory.

Recent signings in the range of 7.8%:

Josi: 10.9% x 8* all contracts set to begin in 2020-21 are calculated with an estimated $83M cap.
Trouba: 9.8% x 7
Chabot: 9.8% x 8*
Spurgeon: 9.1% x 7*
Provorov: 8.1% x 6
Dumba: 7.6% x 5
Morrissey: 7.5% x 8*
Parayko: 7.3% x 5
Krug: 7.2% x 4
Lindell: 7.1% x 6
Slavin: 7.1% x 7
Theodore: 6.5% x 7
Hanifin: 6.2% x 6
Girard: 6.1% x 7

Looking at this list, I don’t think the Oilers have a single defenseman on the roster today who can realistically demand more than about $6M (7.2%) on a long-term deal.

Given the highly speculated material rise in the cap to the $100M range…….

I also take Nurse over Hannifin and a couple others perhaps.

Also, some of those were signed at least a few years ago and the cap landscape is changing.

This player, starting his prime, is not the player for Holland to “dig in on” over the 7-8 year term.

Of course, grind away but a deal they starts with a 6 will be fine over a 7-8 year term and likely a value contract for most of it.

The “dig in” should have been for older players such as Kass and Chiasson.

JimmyV1965

Here’s a list of some upcoming UFA dmen and what they earn right now. How many of these guys get less than $6.5 mill and where does Nurse fit in here? I agree with OP. The days of first pairing dmen getting under $7 mill are over. The better second pairing guys will be getting $6.5 mill. In two years, the pay range will climb even higher.

Pietrangelo $6.5
Barrie $5.5
Schultz $5.5
Krug $5.25
Vatanen $4.85
Brodie $4.65
Tanev $4.45
Muezzin $4.0
Hamonic $3.87

Rondo

Don’t really see how Hall fits with this team, he’s a winger that carries the puck, so not a good fit with McDavid and not a good fit with Leon.

He doesn’t look like the same player after his injury.

geowal

I have no trouble picturing Leon sending Hall with a sweet saucer. Yamo with the follow through on the rebound that Hall generates.

Andy Dufresne

If it cost you no assets, Would you take 7 yrs of 28 yr old Tyler Seguin at 7 x $9.85m given our cap situation/structure?

If the answer is no, then you should probably pass on Hall as well… no?

defmn

Yes. We should pass on Hall unless he wants to play here so badly he takes the ‘Kariya/Selanne’ deal.

Andy Dufresne

Nurse doesnt look like “peak Nurse” since Larsson’s return.

Are they coaching him to concentrate on defense, gap control, staying out of the penalty box, and zone exits and enteries, … and less on creating offense?…. ( notwithstanding the fact that good zone exits and entries do create offense)

geowal

“Question: Is Yamamoto the next forward to reach 10 goals?”

Yes.

Follow-up: will any others reach ten? Archibald might, but the answer is quite likely no.

Darth Tu

Really? He’s on 7 goals in 43 games played. 3 goals in 30 games is definitely possible. He’s on pace for 12 (give or take 0.1) goals for the season as is, assuming he doesn’t miss any time for the rest of the year.

Heck, if he gets a bit more McDavid time until Neal is back, or Benson takes that spot, he’ll probably get 3 goals in the next 2 weeks.

geowal

Oh it’s possible. And if he hangs out with McDavid ten games it’s likely. But if he goes back to Sheehanville….coin toss

Andy Dufresne

“Question: Is Yamamoto the next forward to reach 10 goals?”

Yes.

His competition is Chaisson on a heater….or what we call a Chaser.

Did Chaisson get credit for tipping the Jones point shot in that last game??

Clarkenstein

Hopefully Benson in, Khaira out. Hope they keep Neal out until he is 100%. He is older and a bit slower as we know. No rush with him imo. Also, I’m seeing people predict “blow out” etc. Please people keep it real. AZ is no slouch. A few injuries, bad breaks etc. Where have we seen that before? This will be a damn tough game and I’d settle for a Shootout W.

Andy Dufresne

Yes…of course….lets not get ahead of ourselves…..that would be foolhardy……

My only question is…besides our forwards beating thier goalie like a rented mule….is Mike Smith going to punch Antii Raanta in the face more or less than 4 times?

#OverUnder

#JabUppercutJabUppercutJabUpercut

npanciroli

I still think Nurse is in the Morrissey range for a contract, I know the TOI isn’t exactly a match but otherwise they seem to be. 8 x 6.25 with trade protection.

Andy Dufresne

8 x 6.25 with Limited Trade Protection for the first 3 years and none after that.

#Kenny’sAGrinder

ArmchairGM

JimmyV1965:
Here’s a list of some upcoming UFA dmen and what they earn right now.How many of these guys get less than $6.5 mill and where does Nurse fit in here? I agree with OP. The days of first pairing dmen getting under $7 mill are over. The better second pairing guys will be getting $6.5 mill. In two years, the pay range will climb even higher.

Pietrangelo $6.5
Barrie $5.5
Schultz $5.5
Krug $5.25
Vatanen $4.85
Brodie $4.65
Tanev $4.45
Muezzin $4.0
Hamonic $3.87

At least half of those players will get less than $6.5M. And, Nurse is not a UFA. One bidder vs 31 is a very different conversation.

ArmchairGM

Rondo:
Don’t really see how Hall fits with this team, he’s a winger that carries the puck, so not a good fit with McDavid and not a good fit with Leon.

He doesn’t look like the same player after his injury.

Age, production, injury history and contract expectations all leave me unenthusiastic about pursuing Hall.

ArmchairGM

Andy Dufresne:
If it cost you no assets, Would you take 7 yrs of 28 yr old Tyler Seguin at 7 x $9.85m given our cap situation/structure?

If the answer is no, then you should probably pass on Hall as well… no?

The answer is no. For me, anyhow.

ArmchairGM

Andy Dufresne:
8 x 6.25 with Limited Trade Protection for the first 3 years and none after that.

#Kenny’sAGrinder

Can’t have trade protection on RFA years.

OriginalPouzar

OEL is out for tonight.

jtblack

OriginalPouzar:
OEL is out for tonight.

Have we heard on Edm lineup yet?

Dustylegnd

Andy Dufresne:
F#ck Trap Games!

Trap Game Mentality is for the weak!

The only thing getting caught in a trap tonight is a pack of furry 4 legged varmints*.

Oilers feast on roadkill* in the desert tonight.
.
.
.
.
Disclaimer: no actual coyotes were injured in the delivery of this rant. And actual coyotes do not travel in packs …… or ride on team buses.

This is not a trap game because Leon and McDaddy say its not a trap game…those who fail to follow their lead will find their ass in the press box

jtblack

npanciroli:
I still think Nurse is in the Morrissey range for a contract, I know the TOI isn’t exactly a match but otherwise they seem to be. 8 x 6.25 with trade protection.

If Nurse comes in @ $6.75 per or Less, I can live with that. As OP has pointed out, Edm will be getting Nurse’s best years.

I just don’t see Nurse as a $7.5 Mil or more D man, regardless of an $83 Mil or a $100 Mil Cap …

If Ken needs to Dig In to keep the # under $7 Mil, then dig in ….

Dustylegnd

OriginalPouzar: Given the highly speculated material rise in the cap to the $100M range…….

I also take Nurse over Hannifin and a couple others perhaps.

Also, some of those were signed at least a few years ago and the cap landscape is changing.

This player, starting his prime, is not the player for Holland to “dig in on” over the 7-8 year term.

Of course, grind away but a deal they starts with a 6 will be fine over a 7-8 year term and likely a value contract for most of it.

The “dig in” should have been for older players such as Kass and Chiasson.

I do not consider Nurse a top 2 D nor do I think he will ever be a top 2 D man…..I don’t think he will ever be better than Kleff…which is fine…Bouchard needs to be a top pairing D along with Broberg…Nurse needs to be paid appropriately….when he is not on the ice with McDaddy his O number plummet, hello Josh Morrissey contract, this is a player we can afford to play hardball with and if need be trade for something we don’t have

Yeti

“There isn’t a lot left now that Yamamoto, Benson, Jones and Lagesson have flown the coop.”

Somewhere in Bakersfield, a man called Cooper whimpers softly as LT figuratively twists the knife…

Munny

ArmchairGM: Age, production, injury history and contract expectations all leave me unenthusiastic about pursuing Hall.

It would take some kinda hometown discount for me to be interested.

GMB3

Rondo:
Don’t really see how Hall fits with this team, he’s a winger that carries the puck, so not a good fit with McDavid and not a good fit with Leon.

He doesn’t look like the same player after his injury.

Draisaitl is in the top ten in the NHL in end to end rushes with the puck, and he seems to work just fine with McDavid. All skilled players love having the puck on their stick, and skilled players usually love playing with other skill players.

GMB3

I’m not sure how Edmonton will be able to pay Nurse much over 6 million after the Kassian extension and the contract Bear will rightfully command. That extra year to Chiasson and Khaira is looking like a pain in the ass now.

leadfarmer

Looks like i rubbed off on LT
The name of the game is speed speed speed
And speed is the new big

Andy Dufresne

Agreed…Big and Speedy…..or what I like to call….Kass-ish

Kass-ish Clay… “I’m so fast that last night I turned off the light switch in my hotel room and was in bed before the room was dark.”
.
.

TO the Pheonix Coyotes:
.
.
“If you even dream of beating me you’d better wake up and apologise.”
.
.
TO the rest of the league:
.
.
“I done wrestled with an alligator,
I done tussled with a whale;
handcuffed lightning, thrown thunder in jail;
only last week, I murdered a rock, injured a stone, hospitalised a brick;
I’m so mean I make medicine sick.”

who

GMB3:
I’m not sure how Edmonton will be able to pay Nurse much over 6 million after the Kassian extension and the contract Bear will rightfully command. That extra year to Chiasson and Khaira is looking like a pain in the ass now.

The Chiasson contract may bite us a little next year.
The Khaira contract is a non issue. You can bury most of it in the minors, or easily trade the player this summer.

leadfarmer

I offer Nurse 8 x 5.5 mil and don’t budge
He is not a 7-8 mil a year D

LadiesloveSmid

From Seravalli’s trade bait board:

Would NSH flip Turris for Neal? Would solve the 3C hole. I prefer him to Neal, NSH may agree.

Kase/Donato/Athanasiou are interesting $2-3M wings.

JimmyV1965

ArmchairGM: At least half of those players will get less than $6.5M. And, Nurse is not a UFA. One bidder vs 31 is a very different conversation.

Anything can happen. Just look at Jake Gardiner. But history tells us that almost all these guys will get $6.5 mill or more. Sure, Nurse isn’t a UFA, but if we want to lock him up long term he’s going to get paid. The alternative is a cheaper deal that takes him to UFA and then he really gets paid in a couple years.

OilClog

The suggestion that the Oilers don’t know that this is a big important game is frankly ridiculous bullshit.

defmn

JimmyV1965: Anything can happen. Just look at Jake Gardiner. But history tells us that almost all these guys will get $6.5 mill or more. Sure, Nurse isn’t a UFA, but if we want to lock him up long term he’s going to get paid. The alternative is a cheaper deal that takes him to UFA and then he really gets paid in a couple years.

It depends how confident GM’s are that the cap is going to surge in a few years due to Seattle and a new TV deal south of the border. Pretty sure they have projections on both of those things but you still have to get through the next couple of years without losing any of your core players.

jtblack

leadfarmer:
I offer Nurse 8 x 5.5 mil and don’t budge
He is not a 7-8 mil a year D

and what if Nurse won’t sign and requests a trade out?

defmn

OilClog:
The suggestion that the Oilers don’t know that this is a big important game is frankly ridiculous bullshit.

I don’t think anybody has said that. What has been suggested is that the Oilers have a history of playing up against certain teams and playing down to other teams.

That they have not yet reached ‘peak maturity’ in terms of consistency of effort for every game over an 82 game schedule which is the mark of a true contender.

defmn

jtblack: and what if Nurse won’t sign and requests a trade out?

Then Holland starts making calls to see if you can win that trade. If he can he does and if he can’t then Nurse called his bluff.

leadfarmer

jtblack: and what if Nurse won’t sign and requests a trade out?

Well if he wants to be paid by Trouba then bye bye

pts2pndr

What you would have started with that attitude would be team suicide. Other good players would follow and any loyalty to the brand would go with it.