The Edmonton Oilers are in a real live playoff race and finding out things about the team good and bad in real time. It is, as we have discussed all season, a club that will either finish in the playoffs or close. We’ve seen the “or close” portion this week and it’s not an especially enjoyable experience.
This is a team with significant roster issues but also tremendous gifts, but the coach needs to be able to count on hard work from 21 players.
Work ethic and attention to detail can’t take a holiday. Both have been absent against the Coyotes and the Sharks. That’s life, every team loses it and then grabs it back in the Bettman NHL. The margin between winning and losing is razor thin, I’ve never seen a division where no team can get the hell out of its own way with such consistency.
The trick is to make sure those downbeats don’t last long. The game against Nashville is a big one. Ken Holland needs to add, a skill winger for McDavid and a No. 3 centre.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Mitch Brown: The Video Room: How Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto overcomes his small stature to make dynamic plays
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Emotionless’ Oilers fail yet again to match passion from a week ago
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
- Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers trade suggestions: 50 proposals from readers, with our verdict
- Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
- Lowetide: Oilers’ 2016 draft and the value of waiting five years
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I got a text from Wayne Gretzky that I’ve still got saved’: 8 years later, Sam Gagner reflects on his 8-point night.
- Lowetide: What’s next for Tyler Benson and William Lagesson after being called up by the Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Now it’s over’: With a new contract in hand, Zack Kassian ready to move on after Matthew Tkachuk fight
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
- Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 54 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 21-28-5, 47 points; goal differential -28
- Oilers in 2016-17: 28-18-8, 64 points; goal differential +11
- Oilers in 2017-18: 23-27-4, 50 points; goal differential -29
- Oilers in 2018-19: 24-25-5, 53 points; goal differential -17
- Oilers in 2019-20: 28-20-6, 62 points; goal differential +2
There’s no doubt at all we’re going to see some shuffle on the lines and pairings for tomorrow night but I think there are other forces at play. Do you remember December? When the Oilers were playing every second night? We’re back to that kind of schedule and the results are similar.
ON THE TENS
- First 10 games: 7-2-1
- Second 10 games: 5-4-1
- Third 10 games: 5-4-1
- Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
- Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
- Current 10 games: 2-2-0
I don’t know how a team that lacks balance and depth can overcome those shortcomings, but the Oilers will need to survive and bank as many points as possible.
OILERS IN FEBRUARY
- Oilers in February 2016: 1-2-0, two points; goal differential -8
- Oilers in February 2017: 1-2-0, two points; goal differential -3
- Oilers in February 2018: 1-1-1, three points; goal differential +2
- Oilers in February 2019: 0-1-2, two points; goal differential -6
- Oilers in February 2020: 1-2-0, two points; goal differential 0
The trade deadline is on the horizon, but the approach to that point in the season can change with an extended losing streak.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1)
- At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
- Current results: 1-2-0, two points in three games
I had last night as a win and the Nashville game as the loss during this home stand. Maybe that’s a blessing. Edmonton seems to get up for the better teams.
OILERS 2019-20
Tyler Benson made his NHL debut, it got lost in all the excitement. He is the thirtieth man to play for the Oilers this season. All numbers NST and five on five unless noted.
LINE 1 Sam Gagner-Connor McDavid-Josh Archibald played 6:58, going 8-6 Corsi, 6-3 shots, 1-1 goals and 3-2 HDSC.
Sam Gagner scored a fine goal early, had five shots but also two giveaways. Connor McDavid had a goal, four shots, two HDSC and two giveaways. He was the F1 on the Letunov goal, he can’t peel off on that sortie. Josh Archibald had two high danger chances and once again played a responsible game. He did get punted in favor of Zack Kassian later in the game, that trio going 4-3 Corsi in 5:37.
LINE 2 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 11:25, going 6-10 Corsi, 6-6 shots, 0-1 goals and 0-3 HDSC. This line isn’t forechecking as much and so are chasing more. I expect we see a shuffle soon.
Nuge had three shots, the first one a good look right at the beginning of the game. Had two takeaways. Leon Draisaitl had a shot, a giveway plus a takeaway, went six of 10 on the dot. It’s silly to complain about a quiet night from the league’s leading scorer. Kailer Yamamoto had an assist, a giveaway and a takeaway, and should have drawn a penalty but it was one of those nights.
LINE 3 Jujhar Khaira-Riley Sheahan-Zack Kassian played 6:16, going 5-7 Corsi, 2-6 shots, no goals and 2-3 HDSC.
Jujhar Khaira had an assist and a takeaway, although the assist isn’t appearing in the game summary just before midnight. Riley Sheahan had an assist, two shots and two HDSC. You can make a case for him as the best forward for Edmonton last night. Zack Kassian had one shot, a couple of good looks and a takeaway plus giveaway. He isn’t playing well.
LINE 4 Tyler Benson-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 6:10, going 10-1 Corsi, 4-1 shots, no goals and 1-0 HDSC.
Tyler Benson had some good moments in his NHL debut, including an early shot on goal that produced a solid rebound and a late chance that could have cashed. Finished with two shots and one HDSC. Gaetan Haas had one HDSC and won three of four in the faceoff circle. Alex Chiasson didn’t get a lot done, but he grabbed that Benson rebound early. A little late on the back check too, and the Sharks are no bullet trains.
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 18:18, going 24-17 Corsi, 16-10 shots, 3-1 goals and 5-4 HDSC.
Darnell Nurse took a costly penalty by heaving his stick to Koskinen, one of the more unusual calls we’ve seen this year. He had two assists, three giveaways. Ethan Bear scored a gorgeous goal and a takeaway. This pairing had a great deal of success on a tough night.
PAIRING TWO Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson played 14:01, going 10-10 Corsi, 6-4 shots, 0-1 goals and 1-2 HDSC.
Oscar Klefbom had three shots, HDSC, 4 pims, drew a penalty, takeaway, giveaway. He was not sharp and was ‘also in photo’ in a bad way. Allowed Patrick Marleau to tie him up on the first Meier goal. Adam Larsson had a tough night, specifically in front of the net where he is normally a strong deterrent. His play on the Letunov goal was poor.
PAIRING THREE William Lagesson and Matt Benning played 9:34, going 11-15 Corsi, 5-7 shots, 0-1 goals, 3-3 HDSC.
William Lagesson had three shots and blocked a couple too. Matt Benning didn’t have his usual impact on the numbers, passing was off and chasing was a big part of his evening.
GOALIE Mikko Koskinen stopped 25 of 31, .806. He didn’t have a good night but the Sharks were tipping shots like prime Ryan Smyth. The Noesen goal was kind of insane, went straight up in the air and no Oiler could find it. He’ll want to be better.
GOALS AGAINST
The first GA started well enough, Adam Larsson marking his man down low, with Barclay Goodrow using the net to shake him. A pass through the slot was well shadowed, Yamamoto especially notable for marking No. 28 (Timo Meier). Puck back to the left point, Dillon to Burns, Marleau ties up Klefbom who can’t box Meier and a helluva tip by him makes it 1-0. No fault on goaltender.
Second goal (on the PP) against starts well enough, Oilers are in good spots around the blue line as Kane approaches. He sends it left wall for Burns, Bear in pursuit and Archibald marking Kane. Burns beats two Oilers in order to get the puck back to Karlsson, who sends it far right wall midway to Thornton. Thornton sends a stunning pass through sticks to Burns, who shoots it (off Bear) and into the net. Kane gets credit, meaning it was tipped twice. No fault on goalie.
Third goal starts as a trad two-on-two and with speed from San Jose. Marcus Sorensen takes Adam Larsson to the outside (left-wing side) 10 feet inside the Edmonton blue line. He gets a small gap but there isn’t much to see, as Letunov is well marked by Darnell Nurse. However, Erik Karlsson has emerged as the third Shark with McDavid in the trail position for the Oilers and Sorensen makes a lovely pass to Karlsson, who gets a good look. Nurse and Larsson, two men paid for their work in front of the net, do the swim while the youngster Letunov finds the puck and buries it. Koskinen was not able to recover after the Larsson shot, you want him to be more in control and ready for the second shot.
Fourth goal against begins with Edmonton in good shape everywhere, Melker Karlsson with the puck entering the Edmonton zone right side. He slips the puck to the corner and enters the area alone, as Edmonton was slow to react (Bear finally offering some push back). He passes the puck to Alexander True (great name) behind the net, who is being contested physically by Oscar Klefbom. Puck goes WAY up in the air, Stefan Noesen finds it before Klefbom, Koskinen and McDavid, and cashes. Koskinen needs to find the puck, McDavid slow to identify as well.
Fifth goal starts with an Oilers line change and Kevin Lebanc handling the puck in the neutral zone. Once again, Oilers in good defensive position. It’s funny watching so many goals in one night occur after starting in a good spot. Lebanc takes a low percentage shot from 15 feet inside the Edmonton blue line and chases the rebound with both Matt Benning and William Lagesson. None of the three can do one damn thing with the puck, leaving Timo Meier a great look from the faceoff dot. Uncontested. He beats Koskinen, Leon not really covering but in photo. For a goal scorer, that’s a great area, Koskinen may feel he should have had it.
Sixth goal against begins with Timo Meier in possession of the puck in Edmonton’s zone, far left hand side and deep. He slides up the wall and sends a pass behind Edmonton’s net to a waiting Joe Thornton. He finds Meier, who too easily found inside position on Leon, and that’s all she wrote.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning, TSN1260. We kickstart the weekend with a helluva show, gotta say. Steve Lansky from BigMouth Sports will join me to chat about what networks can do to improve hockey games and overall presentation. More numbers? Better graphics? Someone who can show us what is happening on the ice? At 11, Matthew Iwanyk will chat Oilers and CFL free agency. At 11:20, Alex Thomas from The Oilers Rig and Boston Hockey Now will join us live to talk Oilers, trade deadline and maybe some Bruins too. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
who,
So enlighten me. What point am I missing?
Let’s do this one line at a time so its as clear as possible
I will happily agree that Larrson has not been good. But I will also declare that he is a better hockey player than Persson right now.
-There is nothing wrong feeling this way.
-The evidence says Persson might be better, but the sample is very small
Are you telling me Perrson is better because of his goals for %?
-This is where I have the problem. I never said that. You asked and I said “probably but the sample is very small”
-I pointed out Persson BECAUSE he wasn’t in the NHL. That speaks volumes about where Larsson’s game is at
You do realize that there are 11 other players on the ice that affect this individual stat?
No shit. When a player is effecting EVERYONE’s goal share that much its not the other 11 players, its him.
He was like that last year too in a big sample. See this table on twitter: https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1176667308053299200
That’s incredibly bad. It *has* to be him in samples that big and with the effect happening to everyone.
I will give you credit, you did caution that it was a small sample size. But it seems like other posters here have seized these goal share stats as undeniable proof that Perrson is better than Larrson.
I didn’t see that except for one poster, but he was responding to you.
No one said “undeniable”. That’ another problem. You take what is said and then put words in everyone’s mouth. That’s just moving the goalposts. Its the same as when you say “so you’re saying XXXX”, when “XXXX” was never said.
Even I know that there is a lot of variability in that sample size, nevermind in the stat itself.
Or am I misinterpreting everyones position here?
I think everyone is very concerned with Larsson’s effect on the team.
The samples I showed are now 1.5 seasons long. That’s plenty big for a sample size using goals.
People were reacting to you’re “you don’t know hockey” or “you know there are 11 other players on the ice” type things.
That never moves the conversation along. It changes the conversation from the results to the poster and that’s not a discussion, that’s an argument.
Feel free to disagree, but when you state that you are throwing out results because of what you think of the player you’re going to be called out for it by many posters here.
No one was dying on the Persson > Lander hill except you.
You turned the whole part of the thread into “you can’t really believe I guy I like is worse than a AHLer” instead of “holy shit Larsson’s results are terrible”
Look at my last posts in the thread.
Larsson is “the worst” or very close in GF% in the entire league over 1.5 seasons.
He might be a AHLer too at this point in his careet.
Good on you for keeping it to this thread btw, no need to muck up the GDT with this.
So enlighten me. What point am I missing?
I will happily agree that Larrson has not been good. But I will also declare that he is a better hockey player than Persson right now. Are you telling me Perrson is better because of his goals for %? You do realize that there are 11 other players on the ice that affect this individual stat?
I will give you credit, you did caution that it was a small sample size. But it seems like other posters here have seized these goal share stats as undeniable proof that Perrson is better than Larrson. Even I know that there is a lot of variability in that sample size, nevermind in the stat itself.
Or am I misinterpreting everyones position here?
Your ability to continue to miss the point is astounding.
Incredible really.
Larsson has the worst GF% in the whole goddamn league and you just wave your hands.
Never give up your opinion, never examine evidence, never change your mind.
Take one piece of information, ignore everything else that might have an effect and then put words in the other person’s mouth.
“I guess Holland and Tippet were idiots for sending him to the minors.”
Christ.
The sample size on Persson is not large enough to form a conclusion. The Oilers record with him in the lineup was exceptional. Perhaps because Klefbom responded to the challenge of carrying him, and it was early in the season and Nurse and Bear could carry a much heavier load, and teams had not figured out Bear yet.
I would not be horribly shocked that the Oilers D next October is
Nurse, Bear
Klefbom, Bouchard
Jones, Benning
Russell in the pressbox.
Ideally, Lagesson would be #7, and Russell was playing somewhere else.
I would try trading Persson for a draft pick, and make sure I got Berglund signed.
So everyone who’s calling me out on this thread actually thinks Persson is a better player than Larrson?
I mean I know this is a stats leaning blog but seriously? You all would pick Perrson over Larrson if you had to win tonights game?
I guess Holland and Tippet were idiots for sending him to the minors.
Basically you are saying:
“My feelings about a player mean more than goals. If you use goals to judge hockey players you really don’t know much about the game”
You may want to think about that for a while and make sure you believe before you double down again.
If you expand the sample to 500+ 5v5 minutes there are 247 NHL Dmen who have played at least 500 minutes 5v5 since Oct 1 2018.
Larsson’s 34.4% GF ranks 243/247
Bloody hell.
Bottom 2 on the list?
247/274 with a 25.7% is Alex Petrovic who is not in the NHL now
246/247 with a 31.5% is Brandon Manning who is not in the NHL now
245/247 with a 34.3% is Jonathan Ericsson who has played 11 games for DET this year (injured and bad)
244/247 with a 36.1% is Raw Rookie 21 year old Ferraro from SJS. Worst defender on the 3rd worst Dcorps in front of mostly Jones
Then Larsson at 243/247.
Man.
Reassuring that 3 of the bottom 5 in the NHL weer acquired for the same team by the same GM, all at a substantial asset cost. #%*&
Well, we can argue that Larsson’s losing his Dad and injuries have impacted him, and we can argue bad luck (although it’s difficult because this is over a long period now), but that goal differential is a fact so that’s not going to change. REASONS are interesting, but facts don’t have opinions or feelings, so we can’t have opinions based on our feelings about them. If we’re being honest.
From Oct 1, 2018 until today there have been 183 NHL Dmen play at least 1000 5v5 minutes.
Adam Larsson’s 34.4% GF ranks 183/183.
Oy.
Rodrigue with a 26 save shutout.
Puljujarvi with 3 more points – is now over a PPG, 3rd in league scoring and potentially the MVP – in his 21 year old season.
Awesome post.
One word of caution about 3rd pairing Dmen.
Its was always tough to figure out why so many 3rd pairing Dmen had great results, even against Elite Forwards.
Then Tyler dropped what I think is a huge knowledge bomb when he figured out that “shift start” played a huge role in results, especially against elites.
This is different than “zone start” as they key in this is OTF (on the fly starts) vs Elite.
He found that when a Dman started OTF vs Elites that:
a) the puck is usually heading to the oppositions end already (Dmen tend to change when their team is entering the other team’s ozone)
b) the elites in question are already ~30 seconds into their shift so not only do the OTF Dmen get a zone advantage, they get a “fatigue advantage”
Benning has had the advantage of low FO/60 in most of your sample and that will influence his results.
I think he might be better than Larsson at 2RD today though
Also,
GMoney has created a database of results based on “Shift Start”
Sean is supposed to start working on an interface for the data soon and hopefully we’ll have the results up at PuckIQ soon. I can’t wait for it.
5pm mountain start tonight? 9pm my time – I might be able to watch that entire game – glorious – haven’t watched a full game since the flames beat down – period against the Yotes, period against the flames.
I see the Condors got thumped last night but Maksi had a PP goal and McLeod had 2 points – that’s encouraging.
Bouch was -4, it happens.
Persson had two apples and was even in a 7 goal defeat – he’s been good at the AHL level. I think talk of not qualifying him at $1M is silly – he’s an option going forward – should battle for a depth D job at camp next year.
I agree they won’t do anything in season.
As for usage here’s what I see this season:
Larsson was out from Oct 3-Nov 20
During that time Klef’s TOI vs Elites was 29.4% and FO/60 vs Elite was 53.6
During that time Nurse’s TOI vs Elites was 38.6% and FO/60 vs Elite 53.3
So Nurse-Bear saw 1st pairing minutes, Klef 2nd pairing, but both were not “hidden” from Elites via FO/60
Larsson comes back Nov 21, so Nov 21-today
During that time Klef’s TOI vs Elites was 35.4% and FO/60 vs Elite was 61.2
During that time Nurse’s TOI vs Elites was 34.9% and FO/60 vs Elite 61.4
So they backed of Nurse-Bear’s minutes vs Elite and bumped Klef up so they are both “Top 4” as opposed to 1-2. Same as how McLellan ran the D.
Neither are sheltered via FO/60, in fact they get tougher. That makes sense too as that is when they started breaking in rookie D on the 3rd pair and Benning was hurt so the minutes for the 3rd pair got easier.
“Did Klef’s minutes get tougher with Larsson”?
Yes.
“Did they get a lot tougher and can explain the GF% disparity”?” I don’t think so.
The disparity is too huge and the bump in QoC too small to account for even a quarter of the difference let alone all of it.
I’m going to dig into this further, but I doubt I get it all done in a weekend.
I’m not saying Persson is a better NHL Dman than Larsson.
I’m saying Larsson has been so bad, that Persson’s results are much better than Larsson’s in his small sample.
Its not the whole picture, but a team would play Larsson over Persson for a myriad of reason that don’t have anything to do with winning hockey games.
-waiver eligibility
-contract value/duration
Larsson did play tougher minutes with Klef, but Larsson results are worse, even away from the tough minutes.
Again, the main question is :”The question I was trying to prompt was “why is Larsson so much worse than the laundry list of partners that Klef has had?””
Focusing on Persson, who played 1/7 of those minutes is misguided on your part.
You’re focusing on the wrong thing.
Also,
You said:
Because if goal share, or whatever fancy stat you choose, is telling you that Persson is better than Larrson, you are using the wrong information.
Goals are not fancy. They determine the outcome of hockey games.
Do you really think that goals are “the wrong information” in hockey?
Can you tell what the right information is then? (I’m serious, I want to know)
Bakersfield Condors vs. Ontario Reign; February 7th, 2020; deployment (11/7)
Esposito – Maksimov
Gambardella – Currie
McLeod – Hebig
Stukel – Koules
Granlund/Cave/Malone
[ Stukel – Esposito/Gambardella – Koules ]
Manning – Persson
Lowe – Bouchard
(Samorukov) Kulevich – Day
[ Lowe/Samorukov – Kulevich
Manning – Bouchard
Samorukov – Persson ]
(I fucking hate this shit)
…
After 20:
15CF-18CA
9FF-13FA
0GF-5GA
Top F: Maksimov (0.31 Game Score)
2 shot attempts, 1 shot assist
7CF-1CA
6FF-1FA
0GF-1GA
Top D: Persson (0.06 Game Score)
1 shot attempt, 1 shot assist
4CF-2CA
3FF-2FA
0GF-1GA
…
after 40:
Bakersfield Condors vs. Ontario Reign; February 7th, 2020; after (a traumatic) 40
30CF-26CA
21FF-18FA
2GF-6GA
Top F: Stukel (1.33 Game Score)
3 shot attempts, 2 shot assists
1 goal, 1 penalty drawn
12CF-3CA
10FF-3FA
0GF-1GA
Top D: Persson (1.31 Game Score)
1 shot attempt, 3 shot assists
1 assist
12CF-4CA
10FF-4FA
1GF-1GA
…
Bakersfield Condors vs. Ontario Reign; February 7th, 2020; game totals
47CF-50CA
33FF-30FA
2GF-8GA
Top F: Stukel (1.35 Game Score)
9 shot attempts, 1 shot assist
1 goal, 1penalty drawn
18CF-14CA
13FF-10FA
1GF-3GA
Top D: Persson (1.31 Game Score)
3 shot attempts, 3 shot assists
1 assist
18CF-16CA
12FF-11FA
1GF-1GA
…
That is a -3 raw shot share game despite the team being down 5 goals in less than 20 minutes.
Although it looked at the beginning of the year that I was mistaken to be so ardent in my criticism of this summer’s player personnel decisions, I think it’s now undeniable that more needed to be done.
I’ll predict now that we’re going to see at least 2 or 3 players slingshot their season-over-season production if it gets addressed.
I have to say I am a bit surprised Larsson hasn’t seen a revival under Tippett’s regime.
He appears to be somewhat broken. The super good news is that the Oilers finally have some depth on defense and can provide some cover for something like this.Hopefully it gets figured out before they need to trade him away for lesser talent.
I jokingly caricatured Who’s position but he responded seriously. It’s obvious he believes in the eye test over the numbers. To him Larsson plays the way he thinks leads to success while disregarding Persson’s actual performance on the scoreboard just because Persson plays “soft”.
I’m sure Who loves the Larsson Kris Russell Dion Phaneuf types over the Phil Kessel Jeff Petry Joel Persson types who produce while seeming soft as butter.
I love “the Swedish Gator” but he’s been failing the eye test a lot lately, as well as the numbers test. Vs. San Jose for example where he twice was unable to look after business in his office, a.k.a. Rickibox. Tried to front the shot instead of taking the danger man’s stick on the first goal (uncontested deflection by Meier) & got all turned around on the 3-2 failing, in the end, to deal with either the rebound or the kid who bashed it home.
The numbers presented by Woodguy are not opinions, they are facts. And damned important ones: not Corsi but actual goals. At 5v5 over the past 1 2/3 seasons the Oilers have scored 58 goals on Larsson’s watch & allowed 102. That’s several country miles beyond Terrible.
To turn that detailed, fact-based but still preliminay (“i need to dig deeper”) observation by one of this comments section’s most process-driven contributors into “i don’t think you know much about the game” is bullshit that needs to be called out.
I’m in my late 20’s, hyper competitive. I played a lot of badminton in high school and competed in provs in singles… went and played some pickle ball with a few buddies at Xmas and got my ass kicked by a bunch of old guys. It was a bit of a wake up call!
Bakersfield Condors vs. Ontario Reign; February 7th, 2020; deployment (11/7)
Esposito – Maksimov
Gambardella – Currie
Stukel/McLeod – Hebig
McLeod/Stukel – Koules
Manning/Samorukov – Persson
Lowe/Samorukov – Bouchard
Samorukov/Kulevich – Day
Kulevich – Samorukov/Bouchard
😐
…
after (a traumatic) 20
15CF-18CA
9FF-13FA
0GF-5GA
Top F: Maksimov (0.31 Game Score)
2 shot attempts, 1 shot assist
7CF-1CA
6FF-1FA
0GF-1GA
Top D: Persson (0.06 Game Score)
1 shot attempts, 1 shot assist
4CF-2CA
3FF-2FA
0GF-1GA
No. That’s not it at all. Not even close really. I just think Larrson is a much better hockey player. Peerson looked slow and indecisive in the NHL this year. Maybe he’ll adjust and look better in his next stint, if he gets one, but if you think he outperformed Larrson because of his superior goal share I don’t think you really know much about the game.
It’s got nothing to do with who’s meaner or a better fighter.
Sorry, usually a sideliner here but you do realize the absurdity of this statement? The team that scores more goals wins. And Larsson now has two years of 5v5 results hovering in the mid thirties GF%. Look, I love the player too but these are Nikitin-level results.
good article on Oil prospect Raphaël Lavoie
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/article-oilers-prospect-raphael-lavoie-has-chicoutimi-looking-like-a-memorial/
Okay kids…way to much gnashing of teeth today..
Imma just gonna leave this here for ya.
https://youtu.be/ZEmvBdRLg4k
Here comes the Wild. Mr Holland it’s time to pull the pin and get a 3C before we become the hunted.
I’m not arguing for or against trading him now. I think you’re much more likely to get an actual player in the summer. Most teams right now want to trade draft picks, not players.
Manning and Imama fight
I’m sorry Wood, you’re not going to win this argument no matter what “facts” or numbers you present.
Who is arguing philosophically where he actually means “stylistically”. He thinks Larsson’s toughness contributess more to the team than Persson’s ability to outscore the other team.
He’ll take the guy who wins the battle in the corners and in the back alleys and looks mean while doing it.
You’ll just have to settle for the softies who win the battle on the scoreboard and get into no more than 3 career fights.
His value will drop by half in the summer as there will be far more D available.
With Toronto and Winnipeg doing almost full rebuild this summer on their D market could be better than the trade deadline.
I posted this back in the summer:
Q: Is 1250 minutes over 3 years a large enough sample size to prove anything? I’m genuinely asking, because on another forum I’m the only guy that sees any value in Matt Benning at all, and looking at the numbers I think he can play 2RD. Certainly between him, Sekera and Russell we should be able to cover 2RD next season, but the numbers for Benning are intriguing.
To start with I used a proxy for “top-4” each year going back to 2016-17, based on TOI v Elites taken from puckiq.com, as follows:
2016-17: Sekera (35.5%), Klefbom (34.6)
2017-18: Nurse (34.9), Klefbom (32.3)
2018-19: Klefbom (35.1), Nurse (33.8)
Next I went to naturalstattrick.com and, using their “Teammates” tool, filtered all the stats for each year for the TOI Benning spent with each player listed above. I realize there were times when Russell-Benning were the 2nd pairing, but there may have been games that they were 3rd pairing too and I didn’t want to confuse the numbers with 3rd pairing data. Then too, who you play with is as important as who you play against, so showing those games where Russell-Benning played 2nd pairing probably doesn’t give us much information about potential combos this coming season, unless the injury bug strikes down 2-3 of the top-5 guys. For reference though, Russell-Benning were together just 21:04 in 2018-19 and outscored the competition 2-1. Negligible.
So I built an excel spreadsheet combining all the figures for Benning’s ice-time with the top two LHD for each season and the results were interesting to say the least. For the 3 years combined, 5v5 minutes in the top-4 only:
TOI: 1250:19
CF%: 52.79
FF%: 53.00
SF%: 53.17
GF%: 55.65
xGF%: 53.71
SCF%: 52.75
SCGF%: 56.99
HDCF%: 52.69
HDGF%: 56.72
Sh%: 9.51
Sv%: 91.75
PDO: 1.013
Again, this is just the time he spent in the top-4, these numbers don’t include any bottom-pairing play at all. This looks like a decent top-4 blueliner from here. Is it the McDavid push? Let’s look at the numbers with and without McDavid, filtered by the aforementioned top two LHD:
With McDavid
TOI: 420:30
CF%: 55.19
FF%: 56.65
SF%: 56.14
GF%: 62.96
xGF%: 56.10
SCF%: 55.27
HDCF%: 55.10
HDGF%: 59.38
Sh%: 14.05
Sv%: 90.73
PDO: 1.048
Without McDavid:
TOI: 829:47
CF%: 51.39
FF%: 50.88
SF%: 51.49
GF%: 49.18
xGF%: 52.06
SCF%: 50.97
HDCF%: 50.80
HDGF%: 54.29
Sh%: 8.20
Sv%: 94.67
PDO: 1.029
The truth is that Benning, even when playing top-4 minutes, isn’t getting a ton of “McDavid time”, just 33.6% of his TOI was spent with the world’s best center. Of course his numbers in those minutes are better, but he performed quite well even without the CMD push.
And then there’s this: Benning personally posted amazing boxcars during these minutes. His .912 points/60 puts him tied for 58th best defenseman in the NHL over the past 3 years, while his .29 goals/60 puts him in a 5 way tie for 24th, with Jones, Ekblad, Markov and our own Darnell Nurse. (I can’t believe so many Oilers fans are calling for these two to be traded). These are phenomenal numbers.
The list of marquee players that couldn’t match Benning’s .912 p/60 over the past 3 years is long, including Slavin, Petry, Morrissey, Ekholm, Heiskanen, Gostisbehere, Miller, Pesce, Ekman-Larsson, Parayko, Ekblad, Brodin, Doughty, Lindholm, Fowler, Ristolainen, Klefbom, Hamonic and Vatanen.
Now, I’m not suggesting that Matt Benning is a top-pairing guy or even a sure-fire top 4. I do know for sure that he’s played a reasonable amount of top-4 minutes over the past 3 years and has won those minutes even playing behind a piss-poor forward group. NONE of the other top blueliners can touch Benning’s GF% without McDavid, and it isn’t close:
Benning: 49.18 (while in the top-4 only)
Nurse: 44.51
Russell: 43.87
Larsson: 43.68
Klefbom: 40.27
Sekera: 40.00 (includes bottom-pairing time)
For reference, Benning’s overall GF% without McDavid (just so we’re comparing apples-to-apples) is 51.45%.
https://lowetide.ca/2019/06/10/personal-opinion-4/comment-page-1/#comment-842479
And that’s why I would never construct a hockey team based soley on goal share.
Because if goal share, or whatever fancy stat you choose, is telling you that Persson is better than Larrson, you are using the wrong information. Or using it incorrectly.
As was I.
Those numbers are wrong. These are the right numbers:
Benning Purple
Jones Blue 52
Russell Green
Nurse Omaha
Bear Omaha
Klefbom Omaha
Larsson Omaha!
These numbers brought to you by the Peyton Manning School of Hockey
Tippett likes to run 2 centers per line. Nuge is a 2C playing LW.
Probably, but I’d need a much bigger sample to be sure.
I try not to argue with results.
You’re focusing on Persson.
If you re-read my post I said “In small samples everyone, including Persson, has been better.”
I was pointing out that an non-NHL was even better than Larsson with Klef.
I could have used Russell, Jones, Bear, Benning and Nurse who are all in the NHL, but the point wouldn’t have had as much emphasis.
I used Persson to drive the point home and you seem to have fixated on that for the wrong reasons and asking me “do you think Persson is better than Larsson”
The question I was trying to prompt was “why is Larsson so much worse than the laundry list of partners that Klef has had?”
Not true. He has played significant minutes at 1 and 2RD over the past 3 years.
The sames are big enough for the most part that conclusions can be made.
G found that pairs (forwards or Dmen) didn’t change much after ~300min together. They changed but usually not enough to matter.
Here’s the sample sizes I referred to: (over last 2 seasons)
Klef & Larsson 1340 min – plenty big
Klef away from Larsson 723 min – about half the size, still reasonable
Larsson away from Klef 721 min – almost identical to above.
The WOWY is real and the sample sizes are sufficient.
When I mentioned “small samples”, I was referring to the myriad of partners Klef had “away” some of them get small, but on the whole they tell the same story.
Klefbom most common partners not Larsson last 2 years:
Russell 213 min
Persson 162 min
Jones 109 min
Bear 102 min
Benning 87 min
Nurse 27 min
Bouchard 11 min
The totality of those minutes are Klef’s results away from Larsson.
There might be an argument that they saw easier TOI than Klef Larsson but I doubt its enough to worry about.
Its certainly not enough to account for the GF% difference, especially when against middle and gritensity players.
Eakins is a terrible gum chewer.
Terrible
A poster earlier in the thread indicated the Oilers have two generational talents and meh. Leon is NOT a generational talent. Good lord what a terrible assessment. Generational talents win multiple individual awards. The only generational talents in the league are Crosby, Ovechkin, and McDavid.
Move Benning there.
Call up Bouchard to play 3RD.
It won’t be worse and I don’t care if I toll a year on Bouchard’s contract.
Its actually better to toll one with only a few games left on upper end players are they only really have 2 years of results when you want to go long with them out of their ELC and not 3.
Do you move him this year or in the summer?
Okay, but it just brings me back to the same philosophical question.
If Perssons goal share is better than Larrsons does that make him a better player in your mind?
The key there being small sample sizes. Which brings timing (etc) into question… Was the deployment for example, during a time when the goalies were on a heater? Was the deployment with Fs that were on a heater? These things affect small sample sizes, and we all know that during Persson’s audition the goalies were lights out.
Despite the numbers, the Oiler org decided that Larsson was the better option and that Persson was not quite ready for Prime Time and sent him to the A for seasoning.
I think we’d all agree it was the right decision.
We don’t know what numbers any of Jones, Benning or Persson would post having to do that job day in and day out like Larsson. I don’t know that the Org feels that entering a run for the playoffs is the time to find out whether they can.
They are not “numbers”, they are goal share at 5 on 5.
I never said Persson was better. I showed that Persson’s goal share with Klefbom are much better than Larsson at 5 on 5.
I assume you don’t care what actually happens on the ice and whether or not the team wins when a player is on the ice and you just care about how you feel about that player.
That’s fine, I know many people like that and that’s the way they enjoy hockey and I get it. Enjoy hockey however you want, its fun.
I’m different and I need to see that the goal results on the ice help the team win to like a player.
I even like players who don’t really help (like Kassian) but like they way the play (when they play the way I like)
I know what the numbers are.
But saying Persson is better than Larrson kind of destroys your credibility. Persson didn’t even look like an NHL defenseman in his audition.
Is he the perfect winger for Connor?! Sure sounds like it.
ArmchairGM,
He’s a 3C.
Fair enough, but what does the eye test say?
Mine says only Bear is close to heavy RS deployment.
Not a fan of off hand D.
Woodguy v2.0,
Wilson also was the GM who signed No-O Murray to a 4yr deal at $2.5M AAV. When Murray was finally able to be traded, it was only as a pending UFA. The entire League tittered at the price Shero paid.
Wilson got very lucky.
Its good to be lucky.
Without luck I wouldn’t know where I’d be.
Doug Wilson would trade him.
Just like he traded Doug Murray when for 2 2nds (!!) to Shero at PIT at the 2013 deadline when he was in 7th in the WC and PIT was in 1st in the EC.
PIT went to the 3rd round and got swept by BOS.
SJS lost in the 2nd round to LAK in 7.
Larsson will have some value to other teams who are prepping for a playoff run and the remaining year on his contract will likely be seen as a positive.
Time to cut bait.
This issue is that Larsson can’t handle Larsson’s minutes.
In small samples everyone, including Persson, has been better.