There’s a lot up in the air for the Oilers today, the roster is in a major state of flux. Connor McDavid’s knee, James Neal’s foot and goodness knows what else has the lineup status unknown as we speak. Given the choice between giving 97 an extra two days and turning this into a longer term issue, Oilers fans are all voting the same way. Make sure the captain is right. No exceptions.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Trying to make sense of Connor McDavid’s injury and Darnell Nurse’s new contract with Oilers
- New Jonathan Willis: Faced with uncertainty, Oilers hedge their bet on Darnell Nurse
- New Lowetide: Oilers sign Darnell Nurse
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers Observations: A Connor McDavid scare, Leon Draisaitl’s back, boosting the top line and helping Zack Kassian
- Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: After a ‘long road’ to the NHL, Tyler Benson’s Oilers debut holds extra meaning
- Mitch Brown: The Video Room: How Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto overcomes his small stature to make dynamic plays
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Emotionless’ Oilers fail yet again to match passion from a week ago
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
- Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
- Jonathan Willis: Oilers trade suggestions: 50 proposals from readers, with our verdict
- Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
- Lowetide: Oilers’ 2016 draft and the value of waiting five years
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘I got a text from Wayne Gretzky that I’ve still got saved’: 8 years later, Sam Gagner reflects on his 8-point night.
- Lowetide: What’s next for Tyler Benson and William Lagesson after being called up by the Oilers?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘Now it’s over’: With a new contract in hand, Zack Kassian ready to move on after Matthew Tkachuk fight
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
- Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
- Lowetide: Kailer Yamamoto gives Oilers a midseason spark, one of the best in team history
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers’ road forward — and perhaps to a Stanley Cup — requires trusting the kids on defence
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Deciding what to do with Darnell Nurse, Mike Smith, Tyler Benson and Evan Bouchard
OILERS AFTER 56 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 22-29-5, 49 points; goal differential -27
- Oilers in 2016-17: 29-19-8, 66 points; goal differential +7
- Oilers in 2017-18: 23-29-4, 50 points; goal differential -33
- Oilers in 2018-19: 24-27-5, 53 points; goal differential -21
- Oilers in 2019-20: 29-20-6, 64 points; goal differential +3
A win tonight and this year’s model catches the 103-point playoff team in the standings. What’s more, the goal differential between those two teams is in the range and we can say with authority the 2019-20 Oilers are a good hockey club. On pace for 95 points.
ON THE TENS
- First 10 games: 7-2-1
- Second 10 games: 5-4-1
- Third 10 games: 5-4-1
- Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
- Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
- Current 10 games: 3-2-0
It’s a tight start to this segment and the road trip to come is rife with monsters and outlaws. A win tonight means this 10-game segment will deliver no worse than 10 points (probably).
OILERS IN FEBRUARY
- Oilers in February 2016: 1-4-0, two points; goal differential -16
- Oilers in February 2017: 2-3-0, four points; goal differential -4
- Oilers in February 2018: 1-3-1, three points; goal differential 0
- Oilers in February 2019: 1-2-2, four points; goal differential -7
- Oilers in February 2020: 2-2-0, four points; goal differential +1
Crazy February runs all down the line, this year’s team is the only one in plus numbers goal differential. A win tonight would be nice, and would mean the home stand got some real traction right at the end.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1)
- At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
- Current results: 2-2-0, four points in four games
I have the Oilers going 1-1-1 on the road trip, the team will face quality this week but that’s usually when Edmonton is at its best.
OILERS 2019-20
I spoke to Sam Gagner yesterday (here) about his multiple roles on the roster this season and he gave a great answer. Based on yesterday’s lines without McDavid the line will run Gaetan Haas between Gagner and Alex Chiasson.
It’s insincere to call it a big test with 97 not in the lineup. It’s Everest. A very big game tonight, the word “eek” will be used one way or another tomorrow. Edmonton could eek out a win, or we could all be saying eek by the middle of the first period. Such is the way of injury when the best player on the planet has a Charley horse.
TRADE DEADLINE
I’m more convinced than ever that the Oilers will be active at the trade deadline, it’s a matter of what’s available and the prices. I don’t think Holland will grab anyone too spendy, which means no Kreider and maybe no Pageau or Kovalchuk.
I think Holland’s plan for the forwards will not be apparent until summer. I’ll have an article up at The Athletic about it later today or tomorrow morning.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
At 10 this morning we hit the ground running with a full boat, TSN1260. Jonathan Willis from The Athletic will talk Darnell Nurse’s contract, Connor McDavid’s injury and the week to come. Seth Rorabaugh from the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review will talk about the big Jason Zucker deal pulled off by the Penguins last night. Corey Graham and Andrew Peard update us on the Oil Kings at 11, while we are lining up a CFL guest for free agency at 11:20. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!
The rule is 25 total games or at least 6 games in 2 different season, to be ineligible for the Calder (if memory serves, but pretty sure)
They mentioned a call-up to be made yesterday afternoon that would meet them in Florida but it never came.
My guess is they are waiting on an assessment of Granlund’s health. He missed last game with injury (undisclosed to my knowledge) but yesterday Woody did say he may be available for tonight’s game.
If he’s ready to go, I think he’s the call-up.
Haha, this made me lol.
New for The Athletic: Why Connor McDavid’s injury is unlikely to alter Ken Holland’s trade deadline plan for the Oilers
https://theathletic.com/1597872/2020/02/12/lowetide-why-connor-mcdavids-injury-is-unlikely-to-alter-ken-hollands-trade-deadline-plan-for-the-oilers/
Is Yamamoto still classified as a rookie?
Good point. He is not. And would not have been if he’d been with the Oilers since October.
My bad, he had played 26 games already, one more than the threshold.
Okay, I get it. I screwed up and touched some nerves with a simple thought, unintentionally.
Everyone can go back to ganging up on someone else now.
Well, what the hell am I meant to do with this voodoo effigy of you now? You’re so damned selfish.
I believe so. He hasn’t played 25 NHL games in either of his previous NHL seasons. I do not believe the cumulative total matters.
This didn’t age well.
I obviously know this. Hence the “imagine” part. I think he should be considered anyway, under the Landeskog Rule. Alas, he plays for Edmonton.
Larsson returning to 2017 Larsson would be huge for this team.
He had a good stretch of being that player back in December but has reverted to inconsistent.
Here is hoping we see 2017 Adam night in and night out.
Noticed that. Good to see.
Larsson returning to his previous levels of play/results would be huge on so many levels for the Oilers.
I thought he made a number of difficult saves in the 3rd and before.
And no, I don’t agree that an average goalie should have allowed 0 or 1 goals on 41 shots last night. Not at all.
Sure, Smith looks bad. I’ve not said he’s a “good goalie”, or even “was the better goalie last night” or anything like that. But I did/do think he had a good game. I don’t really care how he looked doing it.
Incidentally, his results have been sustained good for a while now. He’s 8-0-2 in 10 starts in 2020 (2.67GAA, .917SV%). Koskinen is 1-3-0 over the same span (3.27, .892). I still *think Koskinen is the better goalie, but he’s really struggled for 2 months now. He’s only had a .900 SV% in 2 of his 8 starts going back to Dec. 21st (3.69, .879).
Smith has saved the Oilers bacon since the turn of the calendar and been an important part of them getting back to the top of the division. Even if all it’s taken is him being competent, he’s done that.
McDavid with further imaging in TO – just a deep charley horse – nothing structural.
Per John Shannon
This Yamamoto, yes, but I would posit that Kailer wasn’t ready to be this player at the start of the season and needed the AHL time. He was also hurt and missed most of the material camp.
He wasn’t ready at the start of the season. It would have been repeating the mistake of the last two years. It likely would have been a wasted year.
Adam Larsson very quietly had a very good game tonight.
Actually it was Nuge that began the sequence. Klef is caught deep because when he goes low to support Nuge in the corner (and knowing that Yama is already sitting on the boards). Nuge makes a back pass into coverage.
That’s why Nuge was skating so hard on the back check. His giveaway.
I mean, if we’re going back to the seeds.
Benning still played it poorly, and had the last chance (other than Smith) to prevent the goal. And he knows he sucked, watch his reaction after the goal. Has “Aww, frack” written all over it.
As you like.
The Oilers were outshot (31-41) and out chanced (22-27). They had one more HD chance than the Hawks (9-8). Maybe Lehner deserved better but Smith had a .927 SV% and got the win.
I’m not sure what to say if you thought he was horrible and should have had those goals against.
I thought his save percentage was goosed by the 18 shots taken in the third. Many of those were more of the Eakins variety… low percentage from the points hoping to generate rebounds with not enough traffic actually getting to the net. Most of those hit him low in the pads where he’s still kinda strong.
I thought an average NHL goalie should have saved 2 of the 3 goals against but an average NHL goalie could have saved all three.
You’re not seeing Smith has absolutely no ability to move laterally to make a save anymore? If I was an opposing video coach, I’d put 50 of the most recent goals against Smith to show how horribly he’s playing attempts at his net where he has to move sideways to make a save. I’d guesstimate 75% or more that beat him are ones where he takes the bottom of the net and lets goals go into the top 1/2 of the net
There were some point blank attempts from in close among those 18 shots too. I can clearly remember Debrincat having one.
There were seven goals. Neither goalie was lights out.
Yes but my point was ALL 4 of the Oiler goals were point blank rebound goals. The Oilers played a great team game in front of Smith and provided more than enough run support grinding out goals from the greasy areas.
They obviously wanted to prove that the team was more than just “McDavid” and a bunch of plugs.
All 3 of the goals scored against Smith were on rush chances where average NHL goalies make the save 70% of the time based on historical data.
I think Koskinen is the better goalie but let’s give Smith a little credit here.
He stopped 38 of 41. The 3 that beat him were one time shots from passes through the slot. That’s a pretty solid game.
Unless you expect him to stop them all.
It’s not a usual thing, playing horrible for two periods in net and still pulling out the win with one good period. All three goals against Smith went straight in on passes crossing the Royal road or the Ricki-box from shots 5 to 10 feet out.
Lehner deserved better. All 4 goals on him were second chance rebounds from 5 feet or less. His defence hung him out to dry and yet he still kept the game close. He made that one gorgeous save on Yamamoto to deny the hattie in the 3rd making the exact save that Smith couldn’t make in the 1st 2 periods.
Honestly if we switched Lehner for Smith in our net, we’d have won 6-1. Smith battled and got the win but he doesn’t inspire any confidence to me.
Re-watched all three goals multiple times against Smith from multiple angles and all were horribly played by our goalie.
The first, Smith is a fraction late to react to Kane’s cross slot pass and just waves his blocker horizontally below Saad’s shot. He could have pushed harder across and gotten more of his body into the path of the shot and raised his arm an inch to stop the shot.
The second is almost a replay of the first in that he is late to push across but this time it’s right to left instead of left to right. Ryan Carpenter takes the puck close to the boards and takes a step to the right faceoff dot. From that spot he is looking straight across at Toews telegraphing the play. From that angle he really has no option other than a pass and Smith should have read that as the most likeliest and dangerous option on the 2 on 1. Toews’s one timer actually went off Smith’s pad under his glove because Smith AGAIN didn’t push across hard to get his body in front of the shot. 5 inches more to his left and that’s right into his belly and a save. It would have been a tough save but lots of NHL goalies make that play 70% of the time or more. Lehner made that save on Kailer in the 3rd to deny the hattrick!
The 3rd goal, Kane has the puck on his backhand and is in no position to make a high percentage shot skating thru the left faceoff dot. Benning should have intercepted the pass but it was a great pass from Kane just outside the sweep of Benning’s stick. Once the pass was going across, Smith flopped forward while sliding to his right and the puck went into the middle of the net. He needed to slide across upright and cover some of the middle of the net. but he guessed that the puck was going low and only covered the bottom 10% along the ice.
I felt all three would have been tough reaction saves and I thought all three were within an NHL goalie’s capability. Smith owes Draisaitl’s line supper for outscoring his mistakes
Benning DID NOT take Boquist!
That’s the big problem on the 3rd goal. Backchecker had the puck carrier angled off. All Benning has to do is cover Boquist.
Glad I’m not the only one seeing it that way.
BornInAGretzkyJersey,
He has been but they’re hoping to have him back for Thursday. Day-to-day at this point.
But you’re right, would be a big help to our squad if Stammer can’t go either.
Munny,
Isn’t Stamkos hurt too? All of whom would be an incredible boon to our fortunes if they were out of the TBL lineup.
Professor Q,
But was he ready at that time?
I’m in the camp that believes he needed time to get some momentum established before ramping up, vs. being yo-yo’d as before.
No, he wasn’t, and I was one of the supporters of Bakersfield at the time. I was simply dreaming up a scenario.
I am a believer in Ken Holland and having the young ones play in the AHL and other leagues for various reasons.
1.881% of top 10 evg/60 (319) skaters are Dmen.
At best Rovers Abandoning homeplate is 98.119% wrong.
Sometimes it 100% wrong!
Enough for tonight.
bank shot.
Thanks for understanding the start of SOE.
Care to cite any of these numbers with reputable sources?
BornInAGretzkyJersey,
Benning takes Blomquist!
Kane angle is not changed by Benning holding to his position.
Open unchallenged (faced up) open shot from elite goal scorer is allowed.
Extremely high% Kane buries it.
Low risk of fauilure.
Non differentiated open/ closed shot probability is silly improper analytics!
Your failure is living in 1960’s thought rather than using the
1. X, Y differentiation of hockey surface ( homeplate theory)
And
2. Y,Z differentiation of Net Elevation surface (open and closed space (shot) theory)
Silly Binary Boy!
Agree to disagree.
Benning hesitated and didn’t take his man or stick or puck in the slot. At all. Had he tried I would assign no blame to him and beg it off on the odds.
Kane didn’t bury it. It was a sublime feed from Kane (who was being well covered by RNH) directly across the crease to a wide open Boqvist that led to the tap in goal.
I think we’re watching different things.
Silly blind bear, Benning did nothing but stand there watching, if he simply tied up the open man the events would bring forth a different result.
It’s the 2020, don’t let the opposition to play with the puck untouched infront of the net or you’re most likely to be digging the puck out of your net.
Smith had a far greater expected out come to make a save on Kane during that sequence with angles and positioning to he or any goalie would ever have trying to stop the cross crease one timer that is uninterrupted.
But hey you think Larsson should be playing 1st pair, Manning 2nd pair, and Klef on the 3rd. It’s clear the numbers you preach have not alignment with the actual game of hockey. One thing hockey will always need, eyes.
He’s right that Klefbom created the sequence.
Chicago is pretty top heavy just like the Oilers. The Oilers should play more risk adverse when Kane is on the ice, and try the risky stuff when he’s sitting.
Bank Shot,
I guess I just disagree with your statement in general.
To pass up a perceived advantage for a clean break at the line when you see it because of one player’s presence is to ignore the potential.
There were further errors that lead to the goal.
It’s no more all Benning’s fault than it is Kelfbom’s or Nuge’s. Or Smith.
They all played a role.
To single out one player because that’s your hobby horse is just tacky.
#roverderangementsyndrome
What is Open shot Philosophy.
1. Do not Pinch so their is a free path to undefended Rover side.
2. If their is a 2 on 1 with free path to undefended side.
A. High % chance of open shot. Kane high high %
B. Force as many chances of failure to generate open shot.
i. Play to have ability to force forward when trailing forward close to greatly reduce free target time and % of open shot.
ii. A forced pass prevents open shot.
iii. Try to break – up, interfere with pass, to prevent open shot.
iii. Pass complete, we hope 2 nd option of 2 on 1 fails to generate open shot.
Every time their is an extra Sequence in events. Higher probability of failure!
100% Klefboms (Rovers) fault. 2D -1G and trailing fwd have a much easier time defending 2 opposition players driving goal.
Kucherov and Cirelli both hurt in the TBL game tonight.
Huge for us if they’re not able to go Thursday.
Tertiary scoring.
Imagine Yamamoto from the beginning of the season, competing for the Calder?
flyfish1168,
For koko puffs?
Just watched CHI 3rd goal.
Klefbom at Chi net.
Free path 2 on 1 to Klefbom def side.
**History shows you cannot trust a trailing Fwd to prevent an open shot.
This differs from analysis based on non open / closed differentiation.
You here Debrusk spout the old non 2nd half of Goal diff theory philosophy.
Poor SOE will do a micro analysis like debrusk!
This is not the 80’s boys!
Nuge had Kane covered as best he could, the open man was Boqvist. Benning was watching Kane and left (rover) Boqvist stone alone in the slot.
Your analysis is flat.
Note: I like Benning, but he made a costly mistake.
Munny,
If Nuge can tread water with faceoffs there would appear to be no need to double shift centres with a hot change.
Otherwise, we might see more of the third line taking on the toughs and d-zone draws.
Draisaitl just a case study in how wrong we usually are.
I wanted them to draft Bennett.
I would’ve traded him in a deal for Subban/Larsson in Hall’s place in 2016.
$8.5M seemed like $2M too much.
He’s got an 8P lead on McDavid in the Art Ross race.
This road trip will be tough as hell.
So you’re saying the road trip will be rather easy and they’ll do well! Since you’re wrong about things. I’ll take it.
geowal,
If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right
Shots 18-5 in the 3rd. 41SA total.
Smith sure shut the door in the 3rd tonight. Gotta give the man his due.
Next 12gm:
9 road, 3 home
So keeping the Drai line together worked at home, with last change.
Do they keep them together on the road?
The old, fragile Oilers would’ve caved into an endless series of tire fires after that shortie by Serious.
I loved that interview. Some healthy snark in there.
I’ll admit.
Thought we were screwed at 2-1.
Great job fellers.
That game was far more entertaining than I expected.
Especially after the checking job they did on us in the first meeting.
Not a work of art, but lots of speed and chances.
Well that was fun!
I was going Koekkoek throughout this game
Well timed.
Massive win – just huge.
Point gained in Arizona – huge gap there.
Two points gained on Vegas and the Jets.
Drai with a massive gain in the minds of Hart trophy voters.
I’ll be OK (if I’m alive) to watch Drai and McD in their Kane/Toews twilight 10 years on, as long as they collect a few cups in the interim
What a win. Nerves shredded.
Nice win boys, whole team stepped up big.
Read up on Bouwmeester, man, thats really scary. Hope he has a speedy recovery.
Great game.
Huge deal to get a win without McDavid.
And the Blackhawks looked porous, but they were 6-2-2 coming in.
Solid. And important points to move up relative to a lot of the competition
a measly 4 point night for Drai
Nicely done
lol, the Gords really made me wait for that one.
We Wein!!
Ha!!
Drai Ribs to finish tonight’s meal!
Very good. And . . . I love me some Drai ribs
What a fun game to watch. Always (usually) enjoy Oilers/Hawks games.