Bare Trees

The Edmonton Oilers grabbed a point from the best team in the league despite playing without several of its best players. It was a balls out effort and I give the entire team credit. My player of the game? Ethan Bear. Time and again, it’s the rookie who sends the puck to safety, tape-to-tape and under control. Such a fine player.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers lack deadline flexibility due to injuries, few assets and bonuses
  • New Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
  • Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Next-night masters: How the Oilers beat the Hurricanes and improved to 6-0 in the 2nd half of back-to-backs
  • Lowetide: Oilers reap benefits of Bakersfield Condors’ strong development process, even in a losing season
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Despite ‘transformation’ with Oilers, Zack Kassian’s on-ice actions come under scrutiny again
  • Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers are playing their best 5-on-5 hockey of the season
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
  • Jonathan Willis: 10 overlooked trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
  • Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
  • Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
  • Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
  • Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
  • Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20

OILERS AFTER 60 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 22-32-6, 50 points; goal differential -31
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 32-20-8, 72 points; goal differential +12
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 25-31-4, 54 points; goal differential -33
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 25-29-6, 56 points; goal differential -24
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 32-21-7, 71 points; goal differential +4

A strong middle period was the key to getting the Bettman, along with special teams which are a damned dream for Oilers fans who have been watching for the last decade. A slender point behind the 2016-17 season after 60 games. Music!

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1

That’s a solid number and puts Edmonton in very good position for the stretch run. We’ll see if Ken Holland makes any moves but this team has earned the help.

OILERS IN FEBRUARY

  • Oilers in February 2016: 2-7-0, four points; goal differential -18
  • Oilers in February 2017: 5-4-0, 10 points; goal differential 0
  • Oilers in February 2018: 2-6-1, five points; goal differential -4
  • Oilers in February 2019: 1-5-3, five points; goal differential -12
  • Oilers in February 2020: 5-3-1, 11 points; goal differential +2

Best February in the McDavid era, and a positive goal differential to boot. Oilers are 3-1-1 without 97, which would have been impossible before Tippett.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY

  • On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
  • At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
  • At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 5-3-1, 11 points in nine games

Oilers need three wins from the final five games in the month to reach my expected results. I like this team’s chances, though Vegas and Winnipeg could be a challenge. Edmonton on pace to finish with 97 points.

OILERS 2019-20

Not much scoring so the numbers remain mostly untouched. Leon Draisaitl has a 14-point lead on Connor McDavid with 22 games left. McDavid won’t play in all of them. All numbers five on five unless noted and via Natural Stat Trick.

LINE 1 Nuge-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 10:55, going 10-6 Corsi, 8-2 shots, 0-1 goals, 5-2 HDSC. Draisaitl played 12 minutes against Chara-McAvoy but there was no hard match among the forwards.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had two shots, HDSC, played well and skated miles. Smart player. Had a power-play assist. Took a silly penalty, suspect he thought everyone was doing it so why not? But the stripes caught him. Leon Draisaitl had three shots, two HDSC, three giveaways, one takeaway, won 12 of 16 in the faceoff circle. My favourite play was a strong back check and interception in the Oilers slot and then jailbreak the other way for a good chance. Great discipline and attention to detail. Kailer Yamamoto spent the evening driving Zdeno Chara crazy. Yamamoto used Chara’s size against him brilliantly in a hummingbird versus 18-wheeler matchup. Best chance in OT. He lost his mark again on the first goal, that’s twice in a week. However, Sebastian Aho and Patrice Bergeron are damned good hockey players so let’s review.

LINE 2 Tyler Benson-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 6:27, going 2-6 Corsi, 0-2 shots no goals and 1-1 HDSC.

Tyler Benson had a quiet night, getting one or two good looks (great chance on the power play). He does get the puck to good places, that’s going to keep him in the lineup. Bruins were a load for Game No. 5 of his career. Riley Sheahan had a takeaway and won two of four on the dot. Josh Archibald had a HDSC, takeaway and played over six effective PK minutes (as did Sheahan). The special teams impacted this line’s five on five minutes. Important players in getting the Bettman.

LINE 3 Sam Gagner-Gaetan Haas-Alex Chiasson played 5:36, going 9-3 Corsi, 3-1 shots, no goals and 1-1 HDSC.

Sam Gagner scored the power-play goal, and at even strength he had two shots, HDSC and played well five on four. He was the most dangerous shooter on the Edmonton side, adding a crossbar ping to his deflection goal. Gaetan Haas had a shot, drew a penalty and won three of four faceoffs. He’s a player Tippett likes at five on five. Alex Chiasson was very physical and drew the attention of the Bruins a couple of times. One shot, drew a penalty and two giveaways. This line got some traction and Gagner scored the goal. I wonder if they get more time on Friday night.

LINE 4 Jujhar Khaira-Colby Cave-Patrick Russell played 3:04, going 3-1 Corsi, 1-1 shots, no goals and no HDSC.

Jujhar Khaira played 4:34 at five on five and 4:19 on the four on five, had a shot on the PK but nothing shaking elsewhere. Colby Cave blocked a shot and won two of four faceoffs. Doesn’t get PK time, meaning he didn’t play much. Patrick Russell had a shot on net.

PAIRING ONE Caleb Jones and Adam Larsson played 13:25, going 17-8 Corsi, 9-3 shots, no goals and 5-2 HDSC. Pairing spent just one minute against Bergeron line.

Caleb Jones had a giveaway and a takeaway, and confidently moved the puck. That included some smooth moves past forecheckers and taking good risks. I thought he looked right at home in the top-four defense. Adam Larsson also had a solid game, two shots, a giveaway, took a penalty and played 5:21 on the PK. Took a shot off the back (neck? shoulder?) later in the game and seemed dulled for a moment.

PAIRING TWO Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 11:16, going 4-16 Corsi, 0-8 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-8 HDSC. They were supported (7:15) by the Draisaitl line and faced (6:28) the Bergeron line for basically the entirety of that trio’s five on five time.

Darnell Nurse had one HDSC and a giveaway on an enormous night’s work. Including both special teams he played 29:58. Defended Marchand’s progress into the Oilers zone but couldn’t stop the pass to Bergeron (who had a step on Yamamoto) on the first goal. In overtime, he stumbled as he drove to the net, then fell, his mark (Pastrnak) scoring the winner. Took a penalty on the PP when he didn’t feel pressure and turned the puck over in a bad spot. I’ll give him credit, he answered the bell. I’m not inclined to bury a guy for doing his best when injuries force the coach to stretch him to impossible levels. I’ll stand by Darnell Nurse this morning, just as I did for Shawn Horcoff when he had to carry giant boulders up a hill under sniper fire. Context, people. Ethan Bear had a fine night, I want to scream because people apparently don’t notice his cherry passes. Jesus, Mary and Joseph if you haven’t witnessed these pay close attention to how much danger is avoided by Bear’s outlets. Had the assist on the PP goal, I think we may see him more (PP is not Nurse’s strength) as the days go down. Took a penalty, drew a penalty, pissed off Marchand, had a takeaway.

PAIRING THREE William Lagesson and Matt Benning played 6:31, going 5-5 Corsi, 4-2 shots and no threats.

William Lagesson had a good game, you can see why the Oilers like him. Drew a penalty, made some good decisions defensively and received substantial PK time (4:40). That’s a tell, ladies and germs. Coach trusts you against the best team in the league on the PK in your fourth NHL game, coach trusts you. Matt Benning had two shots, took a penalty, drew a penalty, takeaway. I think this pairing may get more minutes moving forward, solid evening’s work.

GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 32 of 34, .941 and both goals against were high danger. I don’t think anyone can blame the goalie this morning. One minor note: He is so aggressive on breakaways, not sure it’s wise to be that consistently aggressive. Shooters wait until he makes his move. Supposed to be the other way.

NURSE AND THE POWER PLAY

One of the things we’ll see in the days to come is an adjustment in power-play usage among defensemen. In the 2019-20 season, lefties have been deployed for 288 minutes (2-19-21, 4.38 points per 60) and righties for 48 minutes (1-1-2, 2.49 points per 60).

Next season, maybe sooner, Evan Bouchard and Ethan Bear are going to change the dynamic. Maybe Edmonton runs two defensemen on each PP or maybe Nurse is dropped and Bear is added (until Bouchard gets used to the rigors of five on five).

Either way, Dave Tippett’s opinion is the one that matters, and he had Nurse out on the power play and in extra time. We know that Nurse, who has a great shot, doesn’t have the passing and offensive instincts of Klefbom. His decision not to reset (but rather drive to the net) is being mentioned online as a mistake, but I’d suggest it was the right call but wrong player. Tippett would rather have had Klefbom there, he’s unavailable. Coach has given his veteran a shot in that spot, maybe we see a different look next time. Perhaps Bear and Benning in extra time.

I’m a little flummoxed this morning by people burying Nurse for giving his best last night. It’s Horcoff all over again. Edmonton booed Paul Coffey, so in a way Nurse should take this as a compliment. I’m wondering why we can’t acknowledge shortcomings without being vicious about it, but then again this is the internet. You know folks, all five men out against Bergeron’s line last night made mistakes. Maybe we can reflect on that for a time.

May I respectfully suggest your concerns are better expressed at the coaching level? I think a more interesting discussion today would involve how long it takes Tippett to move Bear on to the 1PP and Nurse off the 1PP. He’s a damned smart coach, that’s a move he could make today.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

At 10 this morning, we’ll hit the ground running with plenty to talk about. Sounds like a Holland avail will be part of the proceedings, we’ll carry it if available. Frank Seravalli will also join us to chat about trade deadline heating up, Jeff Krushell from Krush Performance will chat Blue Jays and MLB.

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367 Responses to "Bare Trees"

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  1. ArmchairGM says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    OriginalPouzar,

    GF/605v4–2018-2020

    Klefbom: 10.37
    Nurse: 7.63

    Both very strong. Missed McDavid more than anything. I’m not sure how to find 5v4 G/60 WOWYs to prove that.

    Nurse in 95 minutes without McDavid: 1.89

    Ouch.

    http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20172018&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v4&score=all&rate=y&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2017-10-04&td=2020-04-04&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8478402&p2=8477498&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

  2. YKOil says:

    who,

    Yes, would be two sweeteners here – some retained salary and a pick

  3. ArmchairGM says:

    godot10: Ottawa wants contracts that consume cap dollars, but not real dollars.Neal doesn’t qualify.

    Russell.

  4. who says:

    ArmchairGM: This is a ridiculous assertion. He’s on pace to get over 20 goals this year, which will be his 12th 20-goal season out of 13 tries. Those kind of goal scorers don’t grow on trees. And we all know this is largely due to a “PP heater” which will no doubt “regress to the meat”, but what you probably don’t want to accept is that his 5v5 play has been pretty good this year with the exception of his PDO… but that should “regress to the meat” too, shouldn’t it?

    Among the 15 forwards that have played more than 250 minutes for the Oilers this year, Neal is 2nd in CF% (51.10), 2nd in FF% (51.52), 5th in xGF% (51.65) and 2nd in HDCF% (53.73). In NONE of these metrics do any of McDavid, Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins appear above him on the list, so you can’t tell me he’s been riding the coattails of the best on the roster. His .967 PDO is 3rd worst on the team, and its the shooting luck that’s dragging it down. Given the underlying metrics are so strong, just how much of his 11th best GF% (38.78) is his fault?

    According to puckiq.com, he’s played the 6th most minutes against elites of all the forwards, so the numbers above aren’t juiced by easy minutes. Moreover, vs Elites Neal is 1st on the team in CF% (46.60, +4.80 rel) and has a positive goal differential in these minutes, 10-7.

    All in all, while there are very likely better uses of his $5.25M cap hit, he’s a useful player and certainly won’t require a Bouchard or Broberg-level prospect to give away.

    Broberg or Bouchard added to Neal to get rid of him seems too high.
    But this player has some serious negative value. If he went to free agency this summer he’d be lucky to get 1 year at 2million. Maybe 2 years at 1.5 million. The Oilers are on the hook for 3 more years at 5.75 million. That’s the biggest cap issue on this team. By far. It’s the main reason the Oilers will struggle to add a top 6 forward this summer.

  5. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Corresponding with Gregor…

    Great work. If there’s anyone who enjoys a fake tweet or two, it’s Gregs. Good sense of humour on that boy.

  6. ArmchairGM says:

    who: They may be willing to take the contract but I believe they would demand a sweetener to do it.
    Otherwise why wouldn’t they just sign a player who’s actually worth the cap hit as a means to get to the cap floor?

    Because no self-respecting UFA will sign there this summer?

  7. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I don’t agree with Horcoff as a direct comparison. Horcoff was respected by most fans. I don’t agree with Horcoff as a direct comparison. Horcoff was respected by most fans. I don’t agree with Horcoff as a direct comparison. Horcoff was respected by most fans. I don’t agree with Horcoff as a direct comparison. Horcoff was respected by most fans.

    Imma hafta disagree with you here Normie.

    Twitter didn’t exist back then, but this blog did, as did hfboards and fishwraps.

    Hfboards hated him.

    The fishwraps (esp Matheson) would also mention how Horcoff “wasn’t a 7MM player” when his cap hit was 5.5 and he only got 7 in his first year.

    LT was a supporter as were many of the commenters, but there were plenty of people with disdain for My Kaptain in LT’s comment section too.

    My memory of those years is that those who like Horcov were in the minority and by a significant margin.

  8. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    godot10: Would he be if he were not playing with Darnell Nurse?We don’t know.Nurse deserves a lot of credit for providing space for Bear.

    In a micro sample his results with Klef are better.

  9. Wonder Llama says:

    Sometimes you just have to let art flow over you. (I think the guy in the hat did something terrible).

  10. godot10 says:

    I’m sure Kris Russell has enough grey matter left to leave Ottawa off of the 15-team list of places where he is willing to go.

  11. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: “his puck distribution among them has been fantastic”.
    This sounds like a bit of an overstatement to me. The best thing Klefbom has done on the powerplay is holding pucks in at the line. He’s also been better than Nurse last night at starting the rush and making the drop pass. But that is damming with faint praise.
    I haven’t seen too much “fantastic distribution” inside the zone. Pretty sure I could stand at the top of the umbrella and slide passes to the left and right hash marks. That appears to be Oscars main responsibility inside the zone. Get the puck to one of the big three. I haven’t seen him make many passes through the box. Or even shoot for tips, for that matter.

    What you posit you could do is something Nurse was not able to do last night. I think you underestimate the chemistry they have and importance of actually putting the puck in the spot where the recipient can make a play quickly – Nurse was not able to do that last night.

    I encourage you to read McCurdy’s game grades from last night as well – he provided some high level thoughts on the distribution matter as well.

  12. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    Fishwrap. Too funny.

    Not sure why you mangled my post to make it seem OCD, but it’s quite possible looking back that the contract dissatisfaction pushed the mob into the red. Edmonton is a blue collar town that’s pretty demanding of the big ticket contracts.

    I seem to recall this is when analytics really started coming to the defence of players like Horc and was showing the contribution beyond basic boxcars.

    One of Holland’s big management mantras is you don’t pay big money for defensive skills. Ken wants the $ to go to the offensive talent and production. Whereas as a former foot soldier himself, i think Lowe was more inclined to cut big deals with two way stalwarts like Horcoff and Pisani.

    They’ve both cut some poor contracts in their day. I’d love the inside skinny on what they learned from that and where they draw the line now as a result.

    Kass deal is an overpay but at least it’s tradeable. If Ken can avoid the boat anchors, that’s half the battle.

  13. OriginalPouzar says:

    Numenius: I’m confused. Why would you re-sign Nuge before the expansion draft?

    If you leave him unsigned, that allows you to protect someone else.

    To actually keep the player. If he’s not resigned until June 2022, he’s likely not re-signing.

    They may very well start talking re-sign this coming summer.

  14. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: What you posit you could do is something Nurse was not able to do last night.I think you underestimate the chemistry they have and importance of actually putting the puck in the spot where the recipient can make a play quickly – Nurse was not able to do that last night.

    I encourage you to read McCurdy’s game grades from last night as well – he provided some high level thoughts on the distribution matter as well.

    Well that will change my mind. Lol.
    I don’t need to read someone else’s opinion to validate my own.
    Sure, Klefbom was better than what Nurse showed last night. I said that.
    Would I call him a fantastic puck distributor because of that? No.

  15. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: Great work. If there’s anyone who enjoys a fake tweet or two, it’s Gregs. Good sense of humour on that boy.

    I have no idea what you are getting at.

    I had great interest today in knowing if the team worked on the PP and, if so, how it was deployed.

    Given it was not practiced, I lean towards personnel changes not being made for tomorrow.

  16. Material Elvis says:

    Poor GF%. Poor 5v5 scoring numbers playing with McDavid. $5.75M for 3 more years after this. Doesn’t get around the ice very quickly anymore. It might take more than Broberg/Bouchard. You are vastly over-rating the player and underestimating the cost to dispose of that hideous contract.

  17. jm363561 says:

    Homeward Bound hopefully.

  18. leadfarmer says:

    Wonder what we will have to pay Seattle to take Neal
    Probably a first and Jones

  19. Material Elvis says:

    Also, Lucic’s underlying metrics were pretty reasonable on the Oilers, too. Are you implying that he was a good player as well?

  20. OriginalPouzar says:

    who: Well that will change my mind. Lol.
    I don’t need to read someone else’s opinion to validate my own.
    Sure, Klefbom was better than what Nurse showed last night. I said that.
    Would I call him a fantastic puck distributor because of that? No.

    I think you under-value the puck distribution of the player on one of the best PPs of all-time. Your statement, although I’m sure it was just provided for emphasis, that you could do it yourself, is pretty solid evidence of the same.

  21. jm363561 says:

    I thought it was only me who couldn’t understand a word.

  22. OriginalPouzar says:

    Tippett said McDavid was “day to day”.

    Russell took full practice with the team today but its not known if he’ll travel with the team. Tippett said, similar to Benning, they are going to take it slow with him.

    There are many of the position that the Oilers are better right now without Rusty.

    It’ll be interesting to see what happens if Lagesson has 3-4 more games as effective as last night.

  23. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar: I have no idea what you are getting at.

    You’re very adept at playing dumb.

    Btw, shouldn’t that get some props as one of the best backhanded compliments ever? ?

  24. who says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think you under-value the puck distribution of the player on one of the best PPs of all-time.Your statement, although I’m sure it was just provided for emphasis, that you could do it yourself, is pretty solid evidence of the same.

    Well I do value him more after watching Nurse fumble the puck around last night.
    I will assume that Nurse just had a rough game. Because the truth is any competent NHL dman can make the plays Klefbom does on the powerplay.
    Just watch him on the powerplay. He stands at the top of the umbrella and either A) shoots it, or B) passes it to either sideboards. I rarely see him make a play that breaks down the structure of the penalty kill.
    If you want to call that “fantastic puck distribution”, have at her.

  25. Material Elvis says:

    It would be something like that. That’s why the buyout is a much better option (if Holland can’t trade him for a better buyout candidate first).

  26. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Darth Tu: Damn you! It’s better than 18% difference or whatever the heck it was earlier. I need to dig out the shitty spreadsheet I made in January about this to see how it’s changed.

    My main findings previously were that there was a huge difference in the amount of calls against us on the road versus at home.As in, we had about a full third less calls on home ice, so letting in any goals at home had a much larger impact on the PK rate there than on the road.

    What was funny is it was exactly the opposite case for the Bruins.They were getting a huge amount of penalties called against them at home, but relatively few on the road.Definitely not the norm for the league. At the time the Bruins were doing a similar job home and away of defending said powerplays though, unlike us who had the orange pylon syndrome.

    I looked at Home vs Road PK since they got the orange jersey earlier this year.

    Didn’t see anything “repeatable”

    I swear to Gord I’d find something.

    Then I looked at the home PK for teams that had “Hi-VIs” home jerseys.

    Didn’t see anything there either.

    Thought I would.

  27. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I looked at Home vs Road PK since they got the orange jersey earlier this year.

    Didn’t see anything “repeatable”

    I swear to Gord I’d find something.

    Then I looked at the home PK for teams that had “Hi-VIs” home jerseys.

    Didn’t see anything there either.

    Thought I would.

    Weren’t the Oilers like top 3 on the PK on the road and historically bad at home last year as well?

    Or was that the season before?

  28. Harpers Hair says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I don’t agree with Horcoff as a direct comparison. Horcoff was respected by most fans. I don’t agree with Horcoff as a direct comparison. Horcoff was respected by most fans. I don’t agree with Horcoff as a direct comparison. Horcoff was respected by most fans. I don’t agree with Horcoff as a direct comparison. Horcoff was respected by most fans.

    Imma hafta disagree with you here Normie.

    Twitter didn’t exist back then, but this blog did, as did hfboards and fishwraps.

    Hfboards hated him.

    The fishwraps (esp Matheson) would also mention how Horcoff “wasn’t a 7MM player” when his cap hit was 5.5 and he only got 7 in his first year.

    LT was a supporter as were many of the commenters, but there were plenty of people with disdain for My Kaptain in LT’s comment section too.

    My memory of those years is that those who like Horcov were in the minority and by a significant margin.

    This lacks nuance and is severely revisionist.
    While those who kept hammering Horcoff as a $7 million player were clearly wrong, Horcoff was also miscast as a first line centre and his $5.5 million cap hit exceeded his actual value.

    That cap hit in today’s dollars would easily exceed $8 million and there’s not a chance he could live up to that contract.

  29. Scungilli Slushy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Nurse just couldn’t connect on like a single goddamn pass last night. He’s a fine $4-$4.5M 2nd pairing Dman. It would be one thing if he tapered off after the 1st, he was poor all night. I hope they move on from him, at least summer 2021, before paying out the nose when his current contract expires.

    To me this is where the angst is from. He’ll get 7, but he’s a strong 2nd pair not a strong 1st pair.

    He doesn’t have enough game sense to be more, his game isn’t likely to change much ahead given his age.

    Klef is a better player. Paying Nurse is the same as paying Kassian. You’re really buying speed and truculence. The points would decrease with less usage with the top forwards.

    He’s a good player, but has some significant limitations. If Samu shows up soon in ill humour there will be an issue.

  30. Darth Tu says:

    Woodguy v2.0: I looked at Home vs Road PK since they got the orange jersey earlier this year.

    Didn’t see anything “repeatable”

    I swear to Gord I’d find something.

    Then I looked at the home PK for teams that had “Hi-VIs” home jerseys.

    Didn’t see anything there either.

    Thought I would.

    Thank you. I knew the more I looked at it that the whole hi-vis thing was born out of “pylon” jokes. Systems and deployment should trump jersey colour.

  31. OriginalPouzar says:

    Ken Holland is just so impressive whenever he does a media avail.

    He just knows everything about the team and what is going on with the team – knows their schedule for the next number of weeks and, listening to him on Oilers Now with Stauff and he’s listing off TOI for Jones last night and how much Lagesson played on the PK.

    He did “let slip” that the players coming in to the lineup with the injuries and those that have been given more minutes and responsibility and how they’ve performed could factor in.

  32. duct tape and foil says:

    Very true and the difference is pretty much the savings gained by buying out Neal next summer. Let Neal play the Tomas Holmström role (4th line and PP1) next year to see if he can pop another 20 goals and not give up too much against the chumps. Got to move Chiasson over the summer to make it work though as you can’t have both guys on the same line.

  33. Mr DeBakey says:

    Kris Russell, COME ON DOWN!

    Or, is Ottawa not on his list?

  34. duct tape and foil says:

    who,

    Klefbom knows his role on the PP and that he’s the #4 option behind McDavid, Dra and RNH. Whoever you put back there is still #4. His job is to maintain possession in the zone and move the puck smartly to the skill forwards. He knows that he only shoots when he has an unobstructed lane and Chaser or Neal is screening the goalie. It’s a well defined and limited role that he performs well.

  35. duct tape and foil says:

    Looks like Lehkonen is healthy scratched tonight. He’d fill a hole for us. Fingers crossed.

  36. OriginalPouzar says:

    Bag of Pucks: You’re very adept at playing dumb.

    Btw, shouldn’t that get some props as one of the best backhanded compliments ever?

    Remember those multiple promises you made yourself to ignore me? Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy to converse with anyone, but if one can’t be honest with himself…..

  37. Mr DeBakey says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Twitter didn’t exist back then, but this blog did, as did hfboards and fishwraps.

    Hfboards hated him.

    The fishwraps (esp Matheson) would also mention how Horcoff “wasn’t a 7MM player” when his cap hit was 5.5 and he only got 7 in his first year.

    Horcoff’s contract was front-loaded, the first year worth much more than the following years.

    I remember Jones, who was Sun only in those halcyon days, used the actual salary instead of Cap Hit to rag on Horcoff as required.

  38. Harpers Hair says:

    Your daily Brogan Rafferty update.

    The Canucks are actively shopping RHD Troy Stetcher who is a RFA with arbitration rights.

    If he is is traded by Monday, Rafferty will be called up unless the Canucks are successful in pursuing in Tyson Barrie who is being shopped by the Leafs.

    A Rafferty call up would like lead to a Conn Smith trophy.

    You’re welcome.

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’ve watched him all season long and your evaluation of what he does, in my opinion, continues to under-state his role and his effectiveness. As we saw with Nurse last night, even passing to the half-boards can be done poorly when the puck is not put in the right place allowing the recipient to quickly make the next play.

  40. flyfish1168 says:

    It is time to get rid of the arrogant idiot player safety parrot. That is horrible how Benn is not suspended. Time to suspend parrot from his position.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    duct tape and foil:
    Looks like Lehkonen is healthy scratched tonight. He’d fill a hole for us. Fingers crossed.

    I believe Namestnikov is being held out as well.

  42. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair:
    Your daily Brogan Rafferty update.

    The Canucks are actively shopping RHD Troy Stetcher who is a RFA with arbitration rights.

    If he is is traded by Monday, Rafferty will be called up unless the Canucks are successful in pursuing in Tyson Barrie who is being shopped by the Leafs.

    A Rafferty call up would like lead to a Conn Smith trophy.

    You’re welcome.

    So he may just get that NHL roster spot before his 25th birthday (which is in 3 months).

  43. who says:

    duct tape and foil:
    who,

    Klefbom knows his role on the PP and that he’s the #4 option behind McDavid, Dra and RNH. Whoever you put back there is still #4. His job is to maintain possession in the zone and move the puck smartly to the skill forwards. He knows that he only shoots when he has an unobstructed lane and Chaser or Neal is screening the goalie. It’s a well defined and limited role that he performs well.

    Exactly.
    But that doesn’t make him a “fantastic puck distributor”.

  44. Bag of Pucks says:

    OriginalPouzar: Remember those multiple promises you made yourself to ignore me?Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy to converse with anyone, but if one can’t be honest with himself…..

    Funny that. Turns out ignoring the white noise in one’s life isn’t nearly as fun (and healthy) as laughing at it.

  45. duct tape and foil says:

    He does his job well, and that job isn’t going to change much whoever the sole dman is on the PP. Hard to argue with the results this year.

  46. Glovjuice says:

    I posit that Nurse would have looked much better on the power play if McDavid had played.

    Also, why do we never see statistical significance used with hockey analytics (say, when comparing player A to player B). For some metrics I don’t see why you couldn’t / shouldn’t.

  47. Brogan Rafferty says:

    Earlier today I created myself on NHL 2002. I have been practicing all day for my big recall! I scored 74 goals in the 2002 season!

  48. who says:

    duct tape and foil:
    He does his job well, and that job isn’t going to change much whoever the sole dman is on the PP. Hard to argue with the results this year.

    Yep.
    I agree with everything you’re saying.

  49. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: So he may just get that NHL roster spot before his 25th birthday (which is in 3 months).

    Perfect timing.!

  50. Scungilli Slushy says:

    I’m not convinced that a D pair functions well when only one partner has passing skill.

    We’ve seen a lot of that for years (or no passing skill) and what happens is the forecheck is pretty easy to plan.

    Cutoff the ‘player’ and the puck chopper has to make the play.

    The value of having what I consider an NHL skill set – skate and pass, competency 5v5 – is everything.

    That the new bottom sizers are far better at this changed the team. With a lot of roster and coaching changes settling in they are becoming normal, IMO because they can put pressure on and can be in the play regularly because they can get there.

    Also the PK, pretty hard for minus skaters to consistently do that well. It’s hard work.

    I also appreciate Holland’s choices in that especially on PK thinking the play is critical. The players he chose can think the game to that level.

  51. Scungilli Slushy says:

    flyfish1168:
    It is time to get rid of the arrogant idiot player safetyparrot. That is horrible how Benn is not suspended. Time to suspend parrot from his position.

    It’s a lot more than Parros.

    While being loved for his Ivy schooling that also indicates to me he’s ambitious. Which ‘could’ mean he was chosen because he would be a ‘yes’ man.

    There is no honour in the NHL offices. It’s about money.

  52. Jethro Tull says:

    Brogan Rafferty:
    Earlier today I created myself on NHL 2002. I have been practicing all day for my big recall! I scored 74 goals in the 2002 season!

    I heard you created yourself by going back in time and meeting your mum…..

  53. leadfarmer says:

    OriginalPouzar: So he may just get that NHL roster spot before his 25th birthday (which is in 3 months).

    Fun fact. Bouchard could start college in the fall and still be half a year younger than Raffertys freshman year.
    He reminds me of some college football players I knew that had eligibility until almost their mid 20s

  54. Brogan Rafferty says:

    Jethro Tull: I heard you created yourself by going back in time and meeting your mum…..

    I do not kiss and tell.

  55. Harpers Hair says:

    leadfarmer: Fun fact.Bouchard could start college in the fall and still be half a year younger than Raffertys freshman year.
    He reminds me of some college football players I knew that had eligibility until almost their mid 20s

    Bouchard should absolutely do that.

  56. Scungilli Slushy says:

    OriginalPouzar: I believe Namestnikov is being held out as well.

    It will not surprise me if nothing happens. ‘Prices’ this season alludes to emerging players being the focus.

    I don’t mind it. I’d you won’t put 40 of Woodguy’s units on a player you’re not getting a winger better than Benson.

    Holland won’t trade a D not named injured Russell.

    They will let the system step up IMO and send condolences to Woody.

    A couple of summer deals. Maybe a current starting D moves for help.

    That will be it and more one year contracts.

  57. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Looking at Weegar’s line stats, is he really better than Benning?

    If Larsson was dealt would Bear Benning Bouchard be horrible?

    Would Bear Weegar Bouchard be better?

    I’m not convinced.

  58. leadfarmer says:

    I went to NHL shop.com to look for a Brogan Rafferty jersey but they don’t have any
    I assume they must be sold out already

  59. ArmchairGM says:

    Material Elvis:
    Poor GF%.Poor 5v5 scoring numbers playing with McDavid.$5.75M for 3 more years after this.Doesn’t get around the ice very quickly anymore.It might take more than Broberg/Bouchard.You are vastly over-rating the player and underestimating the cost to dispose of that hideous contract.

    I think you’re wildly underestimating the value of Evan Bouchard.

  60. Bank Shot says:

    Do you think Brogan Rafferty will be better or worse than NHL legend Nikita Tryamkin?

  61. OriginalPouzar says:

    Scungilli Slushy:
    I’m not convinced that a D pair functions well when only one partner has passing skill.

    We’ve seen a lot of that for years (or no passing skill) and what happens is the forecheck is pretty easy to plan.

    Cutoff the ‘player’ and the puck chopper has to make the play.

    The value of having what I consider an NHL skill set – skate and pass, competency 5v5 – is everything.

    That the new bottom sizers are far better at this changed the team. With a lot of roster and coaching changes settling in they are becoming normal, IMO because they can put pressure on and can be in the play regularly because they can get there.

    Also the PK, pretty hard for minus skaters to consistently do that well. It’s hard work.

    I also appreciate Holland’s choices in that especially on PK thinking the play is critical. The players he chose can think the game to that level.

    What I love is that fact that Holland spoke multiple times prior to acquisition season about focussing on speed/skill in the bottom 6 and PK guys in the bottom 6.

    He did exactly what he said he was going to do and both of those are major reasons the team is on the verge of heading back to the playoffs.

    Kudos to the GM.

    Also, kudos to the GM for hiring the coach (who hired Playfair).

  62. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I think we are trending towards having to go with 4-4-1 with:

    Bear, Jones, Nurse, Klef

    McDavid, Drai, Nuge (re-signed), Yamamoto.

    —————

    This is another factor when contemplating trading a valuable prospect or high pick, an expansion exempt asset, for a player that would require protection.

    If that trend continues Lagesson will be added to that list and you might be all the way back to 7-3-1 if there isn’t a lot to separate Jones and Lagesson. Also in all cases Nurse needs to be extended or traded before that draft. The roulette wheel still has miles to go before it sleeps.

  63. N64 says:

    leadfarmer:
    I went to NHL shop.com to look for a Brogan Rafferty jersey but they don’t have any
    I assume they must be sold out already

    I think you can’t find the jersey because you’ve got his name wrong.

    I don’t recall the exact name HH gave us, but it sounded a lot like a Broken Guarantee

  64. Brogan Rafferty says:

    leadfarmer:
    I went to NHL shop.com to look for a Brogan Rafferty jersey but they don’t have any
    I assume they must be sold out already

    I instructed my mother to buy up the whole lot!

  65. Harpers Hair says:

    Bank Shot:
    Do you think Brogan Rafferty will be better or worse than NHL legend Nikita Tryamkin?

    Doesn’t matter if you have both.

  66. OriginalPouzar says:

    leadfarmer: Fun fact.Bouchard could start college in the fall and still be half a year younger than Raffertys freshman year.
    He reminds me of some college football players I knew that had eligibility until almost their mid 20s

    Another fun fact, given this year was Bouchard’s 20 year old season (an AHL all-star who has shown huge development and is tearing up the league in 2020) with Rafferty’s 20 year old season where he was under 0.5 PPG in the USHL.

    I can see the argument that projects equal careers…..

  67. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    New Improved Darkness:
    Bag of Pucks,

    You missed Lowetide’s entire point.

    His sheltering wing was precisely that higher level.

    It was there the whole time.

    But then because no good deed goes unpunished, management decided that if you can send a player out there with Horc a full line or line and ½ above where the player belongs, and Horc’s broad shoulders will shelter the rube from PJ-soiling PTSD, that you can then also get away with nightmare-fuel cradle-robbing everywhere else.

    ———

    Address your $50 cheque to:

    Shawn Horcoff’s Youngling Academy
    1 Infinite Loop
    Mordor, Middle Earth

    to receive your holiday candle individually hand-crafted from Orc blubber.

    ———

    Amazon review:

    3/5 My orc-blubber candle from Shawn Horcoff’s Youngling Academy as if dispatched by Eagle drone with the very whips of the Nazgûl behind them. Only it’s far smaller than expected for the price paid. Did he slaughter any orcs at all? Come on! You could squeegee this much grease off of Grishnákh’s brow in a single motion. Not impressed.

    ———

    Right.

    Just wait until you’re the one soiling your own mithril diaper while patiently explaining to Pippin how to cup the silver-crescent siphon-spoon gently against the edge of Grishnákh’s eyebrow without waking him up.

    ———

    [*] The secret is to wedge it into your armpit for two minutes beforehand until it reaches ambient Orc body temperature.

    Horc the Orc Slayer: “No, Pippin, just a quickie above the vest; it’s cold tonight, and for the last twenty minutes we trekked almost a full ent-fathom below grade into a sheltered declivity where the sun never shines—if you pay attention, you’ll notice that you can almost see your own breath.”

    Pippin: “But there’s no moon.”

    Horc the Orc Slayer: “Exhale toward Sauron’s penumbra. Do you see it?”

    Pippin: “I think you’ve got me confused with Legolas.”

    Horc the Orc Slayer: “Okay, here’s another way. How’s it hanging?”

    Pippin:What?

    Horc the Orc Slayer: [sighs] “You know, your tiny-little rosy cotton balls.”

    Pippin: “Hey! That’s an impropriety! And an insult! With a second insult on top!”

    Horc the Orc Slayer: “They’re probably so retracted at this temperature, you’re down to two little hummocks under a fuzzy wattle”.

    Pippin: “I don’t like this conversation.”

    Horc the Orc Slayer: “Then get your eyes checked.”

    Pippin: [rolling his fairly sharp eyes] “Is there a third method?”

    Horc the Orc Slayer: “Do you know the Athelas plant?”

    Pippin: “I think you’re mistaking me for a common gardener.”

    Horc the Orc Slayer: “I think you’re mistaking Mordor forBuckland.”

    ———

    A note on measurement. One ent-farthing is one Hobbit-hand shy of Treebeard’s bellybutton. There are seven ent-farthings to an ent-fathom.

    Handy mnemonic: “shy” rhymes with “Shire”. So you always know to subtract that Hobbit hand.

    ———

    If Mrs Treebeard was still in the picture, she would have taken one look at Treebeard, and then pinned his knotty ears back.

    Mrs Treebeard:That’s not squirrel hair!”

    Treebeard: [surprised] “Where?”

    Mrs Treebeard: [bellowing] “In your sapmons infold!”

    Treebeard: [snappishly raking his bramblefan across his bellybark] “Oh. A vagrant tuft of Pippin’s toe hair, I suppose.”

    Mrs Treebeard: “Pippin who?

    Oh oh. Bad move. It takes a long time to explain anything in old Entish when you’re sleeping on fairy-ring sofa soil.

    Yes.

    Also,

    Do you live in Alberta? Serious question.

  68. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: To me this is where the angst is from. He’ll get 7, but he’s a strong 2nd pair not a strong 1st pair.

    He doesn’t have enough game sense to be more, his game isn’t likely to change much ahead given his age.

    Klef is a better player. Paying Nurse is the same as paying Kassian. You’re really buying speed and truculence. The points would decrease with less usage with the top forwards.

    He’s a good player, but has some significant limitations. If Samu shows up soon in ill humour there will be an issue.

    When you are paying Nurse you are also paying for availability, and a superior ability to defend, and the ability to pay big minutes.

  69. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: Another fun fact, given this year was Bouchard’s 20 year old season (an AHL all-star who has shown huge development and is tearing up the league in 2020) with Rafferty’s 20 year old season where he was under 0.5 PPG in the USHL.

    I can see the argument that projects equal careers…..

    Bouchard didn’t tear up anything.

    He was 7th in AHL D scoring, tied with NHL reject Derek Pouliot.

    He was also a dreadful -9 and while you have to cut him some slack because the Condors are shit, that’s hardly “tearing it up”.

    Rafferty, for reference, is +15.

  70. OriginalPouzar says:

    STL takes a 1-0 lead on ARI late in the third – about 5 minutes to go.

  71. hags9k says:

    I didn’t blame Nurse for driving to the net for a chance in OT, I was pointing the finger at Leon for not identifying and covering back for him…

    Minor nitpicking. Great effort great point. Go Oil.

  72. Brogan Rafferty says:

    Harpers Hair: Bouchard didn’t tear up anything.

    He was 7th in AHL D scoring, tied with NHL reject Derek Pouliot.

    He was also a dreadful -9 and while you have to cut him some slack because the Condors are shit, that’s hardly “tearing it up”.

    Rafferty, for reference, is +15.

    Agreed. Evan Bouchard is a scrub, the dude could not skate very good if his life depended on it.

    Derek Pouliot gets a bad rap. He is still developing you know, only a year older than me!

  73. Material Elvis says:

    No, I’m well aware of his value. You think Neal is more valuable than he is. That contract is a boat anchor. We’ll see how it plays out….

  74. Halfwise says:

    Harpers Hair: Bouchard didn’t tear up anything.

    He was 7th in AHL D scoring, tied with NHL reject Derek Pouliot.

    He was also a dreadful -9 and while you have to cut him some slack because the Condors are shit, that’s hardly “tearing it up”.

    Rafferty, for reference, is +15.

    Brogan Rafferty, in this comparison, is ageless.

  75. flyfish1168 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: It’s a lot more than Parros.

    While being loved for his Ivy schooling that also indicates to me he’s ambitious. Which ‘could’ mean he was chosen because he would be a ‘yes’ man.

    There is no honour in the NHL offices. It’s about money.

    Setting a good example

  76. OriginalPouzar says:

    Arizona loses in regulation.

    Rearview mirror vis-a-vis the Oilers (Oilers up 3 points with 4 games in hand).

  77. Harpers Hair says:

    Halfwise: Brogan Rafferty, in this comparison, is ageless.

    Dorian Rafferty.

  78. OriginalPouzar says:

    Soderberg may be in play here pretty soon…..

  79. Material Elvis says:

    Wow, is Pouliot 20, too?

    For reference, Chris Pronger was +52 on St.Louis in 2000, then -2 in 2004. He was +27 on Anaheim in 2007, then -1 in 2008.

    And that’s how valuable plus/minus stats are.

  80. OriginalPouzar says:

    Knights down 1-0 early to TBL as well.

  81. Pescador says:

    godot10: When you are paying Nurse you are also paying for availability, and a superior ability to defend, and the ability to pay big minutes.

    I can’t tell but it seems as though you are Praising Nurse for his Good qualities?
    I don’t understand this post at all ?

  82. OriginalPouzar says:

    Check that, Knights tie it up, 1-1 in the first.

  83. Munny says:

    NHL Department of Player “Safety”

    Biggest joke on ice.

  84. Pescador says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Yes.

    Also,

    Do you live in Alberta?Serious question.

    Since Mr Darkness doesn’t typically answer questions,
    I believe he spent some time in Red Deer as a youth but currently resides in Vancouver or on Vancouver island (I forget)
    Also, I believe he keeps a lemon tree in either his yard or his house as well

  85. flyfish1168 says:

    Arizona only 14 shots on Binnington tonight Hall with 4 of them

  86. flyfish1168 says:

    Arizona only 14 shots on Binnington tonight Hall with 4 of them

    Munny:
    NHL Department of Player “Safety”

    Biggest joke on ice.

    Evander Kane comments are not out of line.

  87. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: When you are paying Nurse you are also paying for availability, and a superior ability to defend, and the ability to pay big minutes.

    I’m not convinced Nurse is a superior defender.

    Good because of his physical gifts for sure.

    Superior to me includes game vision. Nurse does not have that as a strength. Which is why he has trouble passing and with using his skating to transport and skating himself into trouble.

    Part is that the Oilers still don’t puck support well as a group consistently, a bigger part is timing.

    If you don’t pass when the available player is open it closes.

    Bear finds passes in his first year.

    Timing is also the main reason the efforts on the cycle are low in the league on HDSC. Players need to break at the right time, but the puck carrier also needs to see it and make the play.

    I have criticized Leo on this. He still looks for his favourites. He needs to trust his team more because they need to know if they make the effort it will happen.

    Team confidence. Passes to open players lacking skill don’t fail anymore than forced passes and weak plays, probably less.

  88. Munny says:

    I can see it now, the next time Zona and Dallas meet…

    Away from the play, with Benn watching the puck, OEL takes a two-handed swing with his stick—like it’s Paul Bunyan’s axe— and connects with the back of Benn’s head right below the helmet, shattering two vertebrae.

    DOPS reacts with shock.

    “No one could have foreseen such a vicious play coming”

  89. leadfarmer says:

    Arizona has 18 games to get that minimum 25 points to get to 93 that may get a playoff spot
    Chayka is probably too proud to start selling but he probably should
    That’s what happens when you expect godlike goalering

  90. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Bouchard didn’t tear up anything.

    He was 7th in AHL D scoring, tied with NHL reject Derek Pouliot.

    He was also a dreadful -9 and while you have to cut him some slack because the Condors are shit, that’s hardly “tearing it up”.

    Rafferty, for reference, is +15.

    He has 18 points in 20 games in 2020, or something along those lines and his plus/minus is right around even in 2020 – both are astounding given the team’s circumstances.

    The almost 25 year old Rafferty is a non-comparable in any realistic discussion.

    I’m not sure you understand what it means to be a 20 year old d-man in the AHL and what development through the season actually means.

  91. godot10 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: I’m not convinced Nurse is a superior defender.

    Good because of his physical gifts for sure.

    Superior to me includes game vision. Nurse does not have that as a strength. Which is why he has trouble passing and with using his skating to transport and skating himself into trouble.

    Part is that the Oilers still don’t puck support well as a group consistently, a bigger part is timing.

    If you don’t pass when the available player is open it closes.

    Bear finds passes in his first year.

    Timing is also the main reason the efforts on the cycle are low in the league on HDSC. Players need to break at the right time, but the puck carrier also needs to see it and make the play.

    I have criticized Leo on this. He still looks for his favourites. He needs to trust his team more because they need to know if they make the effort it will happen.

    Team confidence. Passes to open players lacking skill don’t fail anymore than forced passes and weak plays, probably less.

    One of the constants in the decade plus of darkness is the majority of Oiler fans dumping on the teams’ best defensemen. The way to identify the OIlers best defensemen is to listen to who the fans are booing.

  92. Munny says:

    Didn’t see this posted in the thread, apologies if I missed it.

    Tommi Seppälä‏ @TommiSeppala

    When it comes to Jesse Puljujärvi my understanding is that nothing has changed. It’s very unlikely Puljujärvi will play in EDM.

    I also think that if there’s no trade another year in Finland/Europe is also a possibilty.

    So there’s that.

    Not anything really new, but it is looking more and more that this is a dead asset.

  93. Scungilli Slushy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Arizona has 18 games to get that minimum 25 points to get to 93 that may get a playoff spot
    Chayka is probably too proud to start selling but he probably should
    That’s what happens when you expect godlike goalering

    That’s what happens when people with almost zero relevant experience run significant operations.

    A degree and math skills aren’t enough.

    MASTER pitch man.

    See Dubas next.

    Serious lack of hair on ass.

    Smrt doesn’t trump experience, but it certainly helps. Experience doesn’t trump being a dinosaur. There’s a balance.

  94. JimmyV1965 says:

    who: that

    Simmonds got a $5 mill deal this summer and he hasn’t scored in years. I’m sure Neal would get more than $2 mill as a free agent this summer.

  95. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: One of the constants in the decade plus of darkness is the majority of Oiler fans dumping on the teams’ best defensemen.The way to identify the OIlers best defensemen is to listen to who the fans are booing.

    I’m certainly not dumping on Nurse.

    He to my fandom is a limited player who won’t change his game much at this point and he’ll get paid above his ability.

    My concerns are cap related. If Klef wasn’t an injury worry – not that he’s missed an unusual amount of time but that he seems to have mounting issues – I’d trade Nurse for Ehlers. At some point. Or the like.

    Larsson to me is also a concern.

    I would not be be surprised if Holland holds things steady next season and is looking to the expansion draft. Nuge and Larsson going UFA and being resigned post would be a coup to protect talent moving forward. Trade after.

  96. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10: One of the constants in the decade plus of darkness is the majority of Oiler fans dumping on the teams’ best defensemen.The way to identify the OIlers best defensemen is to listen to who the fans are booing.

    Also Nurse isn’t their best but he’s the workhorse.

  97. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: He has 18 points in 20 games in 2020, or something along those lines and his plus/minus is right around even in 2020 – both are astounding given the team’s circumstances.

    The almost 25 year old Rafferty is a non-comparable in any realistic discussion.

    I’m not sure you understand what it means to be a 20 year old d-man in the AHL and what development through the season actually means.

    Evan Bouchard was drafted 10th overall.
    In the season after the draft, he scored 53 points in 45 games in the OHL.
    He spent the following year in the AHL where he scored 33 points in 50 games and was -9

    Derek Pouliot was drafted 8th overall.
    In the season after the draft, he scored 70 points in 58 games in the WHL.
    He spent the following season split between the Pittsburgh Penguins (7 points in 34 games) and the AHL where he scored 24 points in 31 games and was +2.

    Given that Bouchard has inferior numbers to Pouliot and that Pouliot is in the AHL at the age of 26, please tell me why you think Bouchard is a better prospect.

    Show your work.

  98. PennersPancakes says:

    OriginalPouzar: He has 18 points in 20 games in 2020, or something along those lines and his plus/minus is right around even in 2020 – both are astounding given the team’s circumstances.

    The almost 25 year old Rafferty is a non-comparable in any realistic discussion.

    I’m not sure you understand what it means to be a 20 year old d-man in the AHL and what development through the season actually means.

    He knows man. Read any of his posts not about hockey you can tell hes smarter than his… controversial Canucks opinions. If youre having fun go for it but dont expect a real conversation.

    But who knows, Rohan Tragedy might win the Norris next year, wonder what the payout for that bet is 😉

  99. N64 says:

    Hey. That’s my joke. You were in his picture frame rapidly aging.

  100. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: who

    So trade him. And make sure he gets some more goals first !

  101. N64 says:

    Another year for him to earn a Kraken golden ticket.

  102. Harpers Hair says:

    Vegas up 2-1

  103. PennersPancakes says:

    Harpers Hair: Derek Pouliot was drafted 8th overall.
    In the season after the draft, he scored 70 points in 58 games in the WHL.
    He spent the following season split between the Pittsburgh Penguins (7 points in 34 games) and the AHL where he scored 24 points in 31 games and was +2.

    Draft +1 Pouliot did 45 points in 44 games***

  104. Munny says:

    Well if we’re talking rum diaries

  105. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: Evan Bouchard was drafted 10th overall.
    In the season after the draft, he scored 53 points in 45games in the OHL.
    He spent the following year in the AHL where he scored 33 points in 50 games and was -9

    Derek Pouliot was drafted 8th overall.
    In the season after the draft, he scored 70 points in 58 games in the WHL.
    He spent the following season split between the Pittsburgh Penguins (7 points in 34 games) and the AHL where he scored 24 points in 31 games and was +2.

    Given that Bouchard has inferior numbers to Pouliot and that Pouliot is in the AHL at the age of 26, please tell me why you think Bouchard is a better prospect.

    Show your work.

    LT told us there was baseball scout who said he didn’t like a prospect because his girlfriend wasn’t pretty,

    Brogan Rafferty is so Scottish and hairy kilt wearing he doesn’t have one.

    Bouchard’s is prettier than you.

    Mike drop.

  106. N64 says:

    Tied up.

  107. N64 says:

    Or Seattle.

  108. Harpers Hair says:

    N64:
    Tied up.

    3-2 Vegas

  109. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: Derek Pouliot was drafted 8th overall.
    In the season after the draft, he scored 70 points in 58 games in the WHL.
    He spent the following season split between the Pittsburgh Penguins (7 points in 34 games) and the AHL where he scored 24 points in 31 games and was +2.

    Pouliot scored 9-36-45 in 44 gp the season after the draft.

    He scored 70 for Portland his SECOND season after the draft.

    And his split season was his THIRD season after the draft.

  110. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: LT told us there was baseball scout who said he didn’t like a prospect because his girlfriend wasn’t pretty,

    Brogan Rafferty is so Scottish and hairy kilt wearing he doesn’t have one.

    Bouchard’s is prettier than you.

    Mike drop.

    Mic

  111. Harpers Hair says:

    Munny: Pouliot scored 9-3-2 in 44 gp the season after the draft.

    He scored 70 for Portland his SECOND season after the draft.

    And his split season was his THIRD season after the draft.

    He was sent back to junior one year after he was drafted.

    So was Bouchard.

  112. N64 says:

    ~ Going to rely on you to update the scoreboard in either direction ~

  113. Scungilli Slushy says:

    He he

  114. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Evan Bouchard was drafted 10th overall.
    In the season after the draft, he scored 53 points in 45games in the OHL.
    He spent the following year in the AHL where he scored 33 points in 50 games and was -9

    Derek Pouliot was drafted 8th overall.
    In the season after the draft, he scored 70 points in 58 games in the WHL.
    He spent the following season split between the Pittsburgh Penguins (7 points in 34 games) and the AHL where he scored 24 points in 31 games and was +2.

    Given that Bouchard has inferior numbers to Pouliot and that Pouliot is in the AHL at the age of 26, please tell me why you think Bouchard is a better prospect.

    Show your work.

    You are comparing Pouliot’s draft plus 2 in the CHL to Bouchard’s draft plus 1.

    Your information is factually incorrect.

  115. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Harpers Hair: He was sent back to junior one year after he was drafted.

    So was Bouchard.

    So do what with him?

    Maybe see if he can play in the NHL. Trade him for Thornton? How bad is it?

  116. Bank Shot says:

    Oh no. Facts got in the way of a good Hairlip story again.

    Don’t worry. Sergei Shirokov and Breegan Ramenty will lead the Canucks to the promised land. Just you wait.

    In Dim Benning we blindly support! never made a bad move that man.

  117. Harpers Hair says:

    Scungilli Slushy: So do what with him?

    Maybe see if he can play in the NHL. Trade him for Thornton? How bad is it?

    Oh, I don’t think it’s bad at all.

    He needs a chance to see what he can do in the NHL.

    But based on his track record he’s likely not going to be more than a second pairing D with defensive issues.

    Of course, no two prospects are the same and he could well clear that bar or he could also fail to meet it.

    OP would have you believe he’s the next Bobby Orr but I don’t see any evidence that is true.

    He was drafted only three spots behind Quinn Hughes so expectations should be high but Dobson and Sandin have already passed him despite being drafted later…very small sample size.

  118. Harpers Hair says:

    OriginalPouzar: You are comparing Pouliot’s draft plus 2 in the CHL to Bouchard’s draft plus 1.

    Your information is factually incorrect.

    Check the birth dates.

  119. Munny says:

    TBL win the opening face off the 3rd period, goes back to the Dman, Reaves muscles him off the puck, shoots and it’s 4-2.

  120. Bank Shot says:

    Harpers Hair: Check the birth dates bonehead.

    Awwwww. Our little troll must be up past his bedtime throwing around insults. How cute.

  121. Munny says:

    Coburn, the guilty Dman above, grabs a stick like 20 secs later, goes to the box and Pysankas score again, Pacioretty, 7 secs after the faceoff.

    Two goals for VEG in 47 seconds of third period.

  122. Harpers Hair says:

    5-2 Vegas

  123. Halfwise says:

    Beercan Raftergate can play on my team any time. I hear he is pretty good.

    It’s actually quite puzzling why he has yet to play. He must be ripe by now.

    If there are any knowledgeable fans around, please chime in.

  124. Bag of Pucks says:

    Brokedown Ranchero won the Indy 500 once on a moped with Ann Wilson on the back and sugar in the gas tank.

  125. Munny says:

    Jim Matheson‏ @NHLbyMatty ·

    If Oilers are kicking tires on Sens’ Tyler Ennis for his speed and offence in a bottom six role (14 goals, 33 points) as a rental, it should be pointed out that Bob Green, who has a fair bit of sway as assistant director of amateur scouting, had Ennis in junior in Medicine Hat.

    Did someone say, “ENNIS?”

    Matty is the kiss of death on trade predictions though.

  126. Johnny skid says:

    godot10: One of the constants in the decade plus of darkness is the majority of Oiler fans dumping on the teams’ best defensemen.The way to identify the OIlers best defensemen is to listen to who the fans are booing.

    this reminds me of your constant dumping on of Kassian.

  127. Munny says:

    Bolts get one back on the PP 5-3, but there’s only two mins left. Kucherov cross-ice to Stammer and that one-timer you’ve seen him hit a hundred times before.

  128. Munny says:

    Bolts lose. I’d be curious to know how many times the Lightning have pulled their goalie this year, but they never said.

  129. YKOil says:

    Would be pretty okay with passing along a 4th for Ennis.

    Here’s another hypothetical trade for Neal, nudge, nudge, wink type, and completed in the off-season

    Neal and a 2022 3rd to Ottawa for Bobby Ryan

    Edmonton buys-out Ryan and he heads back to Ottawa on a more affordable contract

    Cap savings for Edmonton in year 1 and 2 = $2.17m /yr and in years 3 and 4 = $3.92m /yr

    Full Cap savings in years 5 and 6 (as there would be with Neal)

    Trading Neal is doable.

  130. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair,

    Thank you, sir.

  131. Munny says:

    YKOil: Trading Neal is doable.

    I’m not sure they’re planning to do so.

  132. godot10 says:

    Johnny skid: this reminds me of your constant dumping on of Kassian.

    Clearly a newbie to the blog. Welcome. The dumping on Kassian will continue until he provides value for money or is traded.

    The Nurse haters are wrong.

  133. v4ance says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I don’t agree with Horcoff as a direct comparison. Horcoff was respected by most fans. I don’t agree with Horcoff as a direct comparison. Horcoff was respected by most fans. I don’t agree with Horcoff as a direct comparison. Horcoff was respected by most fans. I don’t agree with Horcoff as a direct comparison. Horcoff was respected by most fans.

    Imma hafta disagree with you here Normie.

    Twitter didn’t exist back then, but this blog did, as did hfboards and fishwraps.

    Hfboards hated him.

    The fishwraps (esp Matheson) would also mention how Horcoff “wasn’t a 7MM player” when his cap hit was 5.5 and he only got 7 in his first year.

    LT was a supporter as were many of the commenters, but there were plenty of people with disdain for My Kaptain in LT’s comment section too.

    My memory of those years is that those who like Horcov were in the minority and by a significant margin.

    I agree with this recollection.

    The entire reason I started posting here at Lowetide was because the group at Oilfans.com had an almost unanimous disapproval for Horcoff. I came here and saw people posting about his and Hemsky’s underlying metrics. The numbers showed MacTavish and Renney used Horcoff to take on the toughs while Gagner Hall and Eberle got easier matchups in their early seasons. The Horcoff supporters were a minority but I felt they made good arguments in his support using corsi and some of the early metrics.

    At Oilfans, there was mostly gritensity discussions and how Hemsky was too soft and Horcoff was too overpaid with little room for nuance or opposition. The Oilfans.com crowd were mostly repeating the talk radio party line and rejecting anything beyond the “seen him bad” or too overpaid mantras.

  134. PennersPancakes says:

    Neal is only 3 years so year 4 would add 1.833 compared to riding out Neals contracts

  135. Harpers Hair says:

    The VGK move into first place in the Pacific despite the Oilers and Canucks having two games in hand.

    What may decide this race is the Oilers and Knights have 3 games against each other remaining.

    Huge.

  136. Bag of Pucks says:

    godot10: Clearly a newbie to the blog.Welcome.The dumping on Kassian will continue until he provides value for money or is traded.

    The Nurse haters are wrong.

    Well, theoretically if you’re always right, then anyone who disagrees with you is always wrong. Right?

  137. Munny says:

    What do we know about Neal?

    Sweet hands, good size and reach, effective net front presence, can shoot from distance, wins cycle battles, smart but cheats for O, old legs and heavy feet.

    And about as perfect a dressing room fit as is humanly possible.

    Has been a lock for 20 goals every year but one, and barring injury should do it again this year.

    Okay.

    So before trading Neal, really we need a 20 goal guy with good size and shot, who can battle as well but add the speed and agility that Neal lacks. Be a better defender and give up less.

    Or at the very least some guy who can get you 20 and not get scored on in bunches. Maksi might be that guy… some day, not today. Lavoie, same.

    Okay, so we gotta go get that guy then… what does a 20 goaler with decent speed and two way go for on the open market as the winning bid?

    Now add in the buyout component. I have difficulty believing there’s a total savings there.

    So yeah, we could replace him, maybe save money, most likely not, but aren’t there a lot more pressing issues to fill before replacing Neal? I mean if you’re not going to save money anyways.

    I think they wait one more year on Neal till the cap springs forward. Inflation paints over a lot of mistakes. Because then the Oil have options. For one his salary will be eminently more trade-able, especially with retained.

    I think the play is to divest Chiasson at some point before next October, which should be easier. They’re too similar; we don’t need to be paying over $7M for two of them. Want a secondary net front presence on PP2? Try Khaira out, or Kass.

    And, of course ride KRusty into the sunset too, for some cap savings… although when you look at the friggin prices paid this deadline, you have to wonder whether it would behoove us to wait till TD 2021.

  138. Bag of Pucks says:

    leadfarmer:
    I went to NHL shop.com to look for a Brogan Rafferty jersey but they don’t have any
    I assume they must be sold out already

    His number has already been retired and fans are forbidden from wearing his jersey.

    It’s like a Shroud of Turin thing.

  139. Munny says:

    Dead on. We were both on OilFans back then, and there’s still a nice-sized contingent here that largely moved on from there for the same reason… I’ve quaffed many a pint with the owner of that site over the years, but don’t regret migrating this direction. And to be fair, I only knew about LT, MC79, RiversQ, etc because they had posted on OilFans before here. Stats was the game changer for me and this was the place the smart kids hung out..

  140. Munny says:

    Harpers Hair: What may decide this race is the Oilers and Knights have 3 games against each other remaining.
    Huge.

    The schedule-makers should get a friggin bonus for this level of drama. That’s pretty much the fate of the division right there.

  141. who says:

    JimmyV1965: Simmonds got a $5 mill deal this summer and he hasn’t scored in years. I’m sure Neal would get more than $2 mill as a free agent this summer.

    I disagree.
    But I guess we’ll never know. Cause it’s a 3 year contract. I would be real curious to see what he would get on a 1 year deal.

  142. Munny says:

    who: I disagree.
    But I guess we’ll never know. Cause it’s a 3 year contract. I would be real curious to see what he would get on a 1 year deal.

    Let’s say Neal gets back before the playoffs. scores his 20th, has a decent showing in the second season… if he were a UFA this summer I think he earns a similar contract to what Simmonds got. Depends on the number of interested parties and the breadth of the market (it’s not the same every summer), but Simmonds is likely the right ballpark.

    He has one point less than Simmonds did when Simmonds signed, in 29 less games, and two more goals. And Neal is a known glue guy. Someone would pay him. GMs love goals and glue.

  143. OilClog says:

    Who’s gonna break Bruborg Rotterly’s heart and tell him that’s he’s be dump for Darush Poopley

  144. Munny says:

    Another comment in what seems to be a series of late night trade ruminations…

    __________________________

    I will say one thing about Luke Glendening… his face off stats are the best I’ve seen from a potential trade target.

    They are stupid good, AND he’s a rightie.

    $1.8M but problem is, his contract has another year to run. And likely Stevie Y doesn’t want to be seen as doing his Old Boss a favour.

    Does Samorukov and a 2021 2nd get it done?

    Fuck that’s a lot to pay for a good 4C and FO/PK specialist, even with a titch of term.

  145. Munny says:

    Undrafted player from Grand Rapids, Michigan. You know this guy will play for Holly, even if it isn’t his hometown team.

    #givenalife

  146. duct tape and foil says:

    Munny:

    That’s crazy for a guy with 9 points. We got a better player, Sheahan, for no assets and less than $1 million in September. Glendening’s worth a 4th or Khaira straight up.

  147. duct tape and foil says:

    A lot to like in Holland’s media avail today. He worries about his own team at the deadline not what others are doing, trying to balance helping now versus the future, stated that he made 6 or 7 bets this summer and was happy that 4 or 5 worked out pretty well. Nice to be going into the deadline with some confidence that a pro is in charge for a change.

  148. Munny says:

    duct tape and foil: That’s crazy for a guy with 9 points. We got a better player, Sheahan, for no assets and less than $1 million in September. Glendening’s worth a 4th or Khaira straight up.

    Not with term, judging by this market. Don’t get me wrong… if he costs less, I’m more than happy.

    His face-off numbers are through the roof.

    We’re not adding offense this TD. Well, except ENNIS! So about 10 goals and 10 assists above replacement with ENNIS, and a couple of each with Glendening.

    But the FOs and PK Glendening brings gotta be tempting.

    The thing about getting ENNIS and Glendening is that they’re material improvements on Haas and Nygard… both of whom I love, but aren’t core and are in over the heads entering these playoffs. (Nice depth tho.)

    Leaves us with:

    . . — DRY — . .
    Archie – God – Neal
    Ennis – Shea – Kass
    Khair – Glend – Chase

    You know you have it good when God is your 2nd line center, lol.

    That’s a stout line-up. Moves the vet needle, adds points, adds FO wins, a RH Center, doesn’t lose speed or PK ability.. and should be able to be had for cheaper than the famous names.

    We are shopping in the bargain bin… these adds represent value filling need, and don’t break the bank.

  149. RedNed says:

    New Improved Darkness,

    Made me laugh big time. Horc the Orc Slayer indeed!

    Regarding the game, Boston looked like a pretty slick outfit. Oilers looked like the little engine that thought it could, and did. Very proud of the team.

    Noticed Nurse’s oft mentioned misqueues and every time thought, ‘What now? Oh, hang on, he’s playing ridiculous minutes against a ridiculous team, give him a game or two to get up to speed. Bloody good game Nurse.’ Glad to see others thinking similar. Resting him from PP1 a little might be a good thing, also gives the younger guy a bit of a taste.

    Really enjoying this season.

  150. RedNed says:

    Funny you mention this. Watching Oilers improved forecheck this year has brought my mind to Slepy several times. Just a few minutes I saw of a game he from before he was signed with Oilers, and how ferocious he was on the fc. Different level of competition, admittedly, but it stood out a mile from his comparables (all this is qualitative, by eye, analysis, no numbers sorry). Has decent size and shot.

    Then again, I like Gagner too. Lesigh.

  151. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    I can see it now, the next time Zona and Dallas meet…

    Away from the play, with Benn watching the puck, OEL takes a two-handed swing with his stick—like it’s Paul Bunyan’s axe— and connects with the back of Benn’s head right below the helmet, shattering two vertebrae.

    DOPS reacts with shock.

    “No one could have foreseen such a vicious play coming”

    Since it wasn’t a hit to the head, but rather the neck, does it warrant a suspension though? A $5000 fine would probably cover it, no?

  152. ArmchairGM says:

    Bouchard is 20, 3-14-17 +3 in 2020.

    Rafferty is 15, 1-8-9 -2 in 2020 and currently on a 6 game pointless streak. Maybe he’s distracted waiting for that recall that isn’t coming?

  153. Ryan says:

    Munny:
    Another comment in what seems to be a series of late night trade ruminations…

    __________________________

    I will say one thing about Luke Glendening… his face off stats are the best I’ve seen from a potential trade target.

    They are stupid good, AND he’s a rightie.

    $1.8M but problem is, his contract has another year to run.And likely Stevie Y doesn’t want to be seen as doing his Old Boss a favour.

    Does Samorukov and a 2021 2nd get it done?

    Fuck that’s a lot to pay for a good 4C and FO/PK specialist, even with a titch of term.

    Term only adds to the acquisition cost if it’s a good contract.

    We already have Sheahan as a 4c.

    $1.8 m is on the pricier side for a 4c. Combine that with the extra year on the contract, his age (nearly 31) and I’d probably want compensation to take that contract from Detroit.

    Trading a second rounder and a good prospect for a $1.8 m 4 c who’s nearly 31 sounds completely bonkers to me.

    Never mind that we wouldn’t have money to re-sign Sheahan this summer.

    The Kings won a cup with our Colin Fraser as 4c. He was paid near league minimum and they traded us a sixth rounder to acquire his expiring contract.

    I wouldn’t trade for a four c at this time of year probably ever unless we were a cup contender, absolutely desperate for a 4c, and the price was cheap.

  154. ArmchairGM says:

    You’ve skipped a year. Pouliot played two years in the Dub after being drafted. You’re calling his draft+2 “the season after the draft.” Talk about moving goalposts!

    Draft year P/GP / Playoff P/GP
    Bouchard, OHL: 1.30 / 1.25
    Pouliot, WHL: 0.82 / 0.77

    Draft+1
    Bouchard, OHL: 1.18 / 1.91 (+ 8 points and plus-3 in 8 AHL playoff games)
    Pouliot, WHL: 1.02 / 0.95 (+ 0 points and minus-2 in 1 AHL playoff game)

    Draft+2
    Bouchard, AHL: 0.66 / TBD
    Pouliot, WHL: 1.21 / 1.52

    Draft+3
    Bouchard, NHL: TBD
    Pouliot, AHL: 0.77 (+ 0.21 in NHL) / 0.50

  155. ArmchairGM says:

    So… a complete fabrication? Sounds about right.

  156. ArmchairGM says:

    Munny:
    Another comment in what seems to be a series of late night trade ruminations…

    __________________________

    I will say one thing about Luke Glendening… his face off stats are the best I’ve seen from a potential trade target.

    They are stupid good, AND he’s a rightie.

    $1.8M but problem is, his contract has another year to run.And likely Stevie Y doesn’t want to be seen as doing his Old Boss a favour.

    Does Samorukov and a 2021 2nd get it done?

    Fuck that’s a lot to pay for a good 4C and FO/PK specialist, even with a titch of term.

    That’s a ridiculous price to pay. How bad is Glendening? He’s a drag on Athanasiou FFS. He isn’t worth a 2nd alone.

  157. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Oh, I don’t think it’s bad at all.

    He needs a chance to see what he can do in the NHL.

    But based on his track record he’s likely not going to be more than a second pairing D with defensive issues.

    Of course, no two prospects are the same and he could well clear that bar or he could also fail to meet it.

    OP would have you believe he’s the next Bobby Orr but I don’t see any evidence that is true.

    He was drafted only three spots behind Quinn Hughes so expectations should be high but Dobson and Sandin have already passed him despite being drafted later…very small sample size.

    Based on what track record? One prospect that you cite that didn’t live up to his draft day pedigree? Come on.

    Draft plus 1 – CHL d-man of the year
    Draft plus 2 – AHL all-star who has shown huge development in his game from October through February and is producing at a PPG, playing 25 minutes per game an even on a terrible team in 2020.

    He very well may end up being a 2nd pairing/PP guy but he’s trending just fine for his 10th overall draft position.

    To say he’s been passed by Dobson and Sandin is dishonest – Bouchard hasn’t played NHL games this year because of depth of NHL quality d-man. There is no chance Sandin would have played NHL games as an Oiler and he’s playing as a function of the Leaf’s lack of depth. Dobson is a very comparable prospect and I have little doubt that Bouchard could produce similar, likely better, boxcars if he had 30 NHL games.

    All great prospects – can’t say which of the three will end up with the better careers but Bouchard is potentially top of that list, even right now – time will tell.

  158. OriginalPouzar says:

    Harpers Hair: Check the birth dates.

    I see you edited out your personal insult – no need to get triggered, its just hockey talk.

    Birthdates are indeed important but you were the one that used production in draft plus 1 and draft plus 2 and posted incorrect stats.

    You brought up years after draft, not birthdate.

    Of course, its odd that you would bring up birthdate now considering you equate prospect performance at age 24 to another at age 20……

  159. frjohnk says:

    OriginalPouzar: considering you equate prospect performance at age 24 to another at age 20

    HH just loves reaching into that Joe Colbourne bin.

  160. ArmchairGM says:

    Bouchard in 2020: 20, 3-14-17 +3

  161. frjohnk says:

    Here are the current Dmen ( NHL and AHL) who played majority of their 20 year old season in the AHL and scored near what Bouchard has this year.

    Derrick Pouliot 0.774
    Justin Faulk 0.774
    Mike Green 0.768
    Timothy Liljegren 0.763
    Shea Theodore 0.76
    P.K. Subban 0.688
    Brayden McNabb 0.667
    Evan Bouchard 0.66
    Tyson Barrie 0.653
    Yannick Weber 0.647
    Kyle Wood 0.632
    Adam Clendening 0.63
    Jake Bean 0.629
    Vince Dunn 0.625
    Anthony Deangelo 0.623
    Joey Keane 0.612
    Kyle Capobianco 0.612
    Dylan Coghlan 0.606

    Maybe Bouchard ends up being a Dman like Clendening or Wood who score well in the AHL but can not make the jump to the NHL.

    Maybe he ends up being a 3rd pairing Dman like Weber.

    Maybe he ends up being a Dman who scores like Green, Subban.

    Id be worried if a Dman who was drafted for his offense, played in the AHL this year and didnt put up much for offense, but the numbers show Bouchard is in good company.

    His story is yet to be told.

  162. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Munny: Let’s say Neal gets back before the playoffs. scores his 20th, has a decent showing in the second season… if he were a UFA this summer I think he earns a similar contract to what Simmonds got.Depends on the number of interested parties and the breadth of the market (it’s not the same every summer), but Simmonds is likely the right ballpark.

    He has one point less than Simmonds did when Simmonds signed, in 29 less games, and two more goals.And Neal is a known glue guy.Someone would pay him.GMs love goals and glue.

    – Yeah, I mean sure he has some significant negatives, but honestly I don’t get how so many believe that he is going to be bought out this summer, or that he ought to. Its just so punitive (on top of the dead salary for Lucic, Sek, Poo, etc, you’d have what $7MM+ in dead space)

    – In the history of Hockey, a 20-goal scorer with positive possession #’s don’t get bought out.

    – You just don’t terminate people who exceed expectations in any business

    – In the absence of another Lucic/Neal type trade in off-season, give him PP time still, drift down the roster, and next year evaluate: if the team continues to be good, he will continue to score goals.

    – Anyway it will for sure be one of my questions on the off-season ArmChair GM contest…

  163. N64 says:

    Harpers Hair:
    The VGK move into first place in the Pacific despite the Oilers and Canucks having two games in hand.

    What may decide this race is the Oilers and Knights have 3 games against each other remaining.

    Huge.

    By the end of every month ending in r y h or l I’ve fully expected Vegreville to be first in the Pacific.

    ~ I have it on good authority that they would get ‘er done by the end of November, but that Bettman point is worse than a Heinz commercial. Takes years to ketch up. Without the head to heads this might have taken as long as finding the question for 42. ~

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