There are real roster uncertainties as I write this, transactions on Saturday to send Colby Cave and Evan Bouchard to Bakersfield Condors await the bookend maneuvre. Connor McDavid isn’t always the lead story, while also always being the lead story. If he’s playing tonight, the Oilers have improved enormously overnight. That’s a fact.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Lowetide Trade Deadline: Oilers countdown to trade deadline involves age old dilemma
- New Jonathan Willis: They shoot, they don’t score: NHLers who just can’t find the back of the net
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why cap issues mean McDavid’s return could be Oilers’ only pre-deadline move
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers lack deadline flexibility due to injuries, few assets and bonuses
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
- Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Next-night masters: How the Oilers beat the Hurricanes and improved to 6-0 in the 2nd half of back-to-backs
- Lowetide: Oilers reap benefits of Bakersfield Condors’ strong development process, even in a losing season
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Despite ‘transformation’ with Oilers, Zack Kassian’s on-ice actions come under scrutiny again
- Jonathan Willis: Why the Oilers are playing their best 5-on-5 hockey of the season
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
- Jonathan Willis: 10 overlooked trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
- Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
- Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
- Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
- Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
OILERS AFTER 62 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 22-34-6, 50 points; goal differential -34
- Oilers in 2016-17: 33-21-8, 74 points; goal differential +12
- Oilers in 2017-18: 27-31-4, 58 points; goal differential -33
- Oilers in 2018-19: 26-29-7, 59 points; goal differential -23
- Oilers in 2019-20: 32-22-7, 71 points; goal differential +3
Terrific season in those numbers, and many youngsters have emerged in real time. I don’t recall a season where more roster players enjoy career seasons or close, and in fact many players are enjoying impressive first full NHL seasons. Lots to applaud across the roster, coaching and management included.
ON THE TENS
- First 10 games: 7-2-1
- Second 10 games: 5-4-1
- Third 10 games: 5-4-1
- Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
- Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
- Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
- Current 10 games: 0-1-0
OILERS IN FEBRUARY
- Oilers in February 2016: 2-9-0, four points; goal differential -21
- Oilers in February 2017: 5-6-0, 10 points; goal differential -2
- Oilers in February 2018: 3-7-1, seven points; goal differential -4
- Oilers in February 2019: 3-5-3, nine points; goal differential -10
- Oilers in February 2020: 5-4-1, 11 points; goal differential +1
One of the things we’ll need to discuss in the offseason is the run by Edmonton starting January 1. I haven’t gone back to look over the team’s history this century, but this season (11-5-3), the 2016-17 campaign (13-8-2) and 2005-06 (8-6-4) all landed in a positive direction Jan. 1 through February 23.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
- Current results: 5-4-1, 11 points in 10 games
Oilers need this game tonight. It sets up the deadline in a positive way (Edmonton would slide back into second in the Pacific) and gives the team enough breathing room to consider trading valuable assets. Big game. LAK aren’t an easy out, and that’s when everyone is healthy.
OILERS 2019-20
The article I wrote for The Athletic yesterday (the trade dilemma) drove home the fact Ken Holland needs to acquire a left winger for the McDavid line. You’d like Tomas Tatar but Tyler Ennis is a solid option.
Elliotte Friedman mentioned Edmonton’s interest in Mike Green last night, Jonathan Willis wrote about him recently so I won’t retrace his steps. I will post his Puck IQ numbers against elites, though, Green isn’t your ordinary broken down blue.
Oscar Klefbom has played 33 percent of his five on five time against elites this season, that’s the range for Green. Detroit is a terrible team, so Klefbom’s goal differential against elites (14-13) is superior to Green’s in Detroit (5-12) but that DFF percentage (48.20) for Green is quality. Ken Holland likes old people. This would be his first “I know a guy” deal since arriving, although he did sign Riley Sheahan as a free agent.
The big question for me is who is leaving to make room? Kris Russell has been mentioned but that’s the cap issue, what about the RH side? Edmonton currently employs Bear, Larsson and Benning there, so if Green is coming in, one of those men must be leaving. Right? Fascinating. Larsson? Benning? It sure as hell isn’t Bear.
TORONTO
Maple Leafs fans are hurting units this morning, that was a bad beat and it will be remembered. Exacerbating things is a long, long list of articles with titles like ‘How long before Mcdavid wants out of Edmonton?’ that have enraged Canadian outposts for decades. So there’s no sympathy, not an ounce, across this great nation this morning. To the contrary. Ken Holland might want to make a call to Kyle Dubas this morning, asking if he needs a rugged forward or defenseman. Hey, it’s a cruel business.
Captain Obvious says: you’re not going to win too many games giving up 16 shots a period. Hopefully the boys can pick it up.
Great work Holland. Exciting times. Now make the playoffs lol.
Feel bad for gags, thought it was maybe his last hurrah with Oilers in the playoffs.
Andreas Athanasiou!
If FLA is “selling”, Dadanov is of interest to me.
Wow.
Maybe he is a Larsson replacement?
Man! I was pretty surprised to read that glowing report!
Yeah, super encouraging whatever Holland’s plan is.
Trochek 2.08 pts/60 5×5 while shooting 7.2% 5×5
Huge. I love me some Trocheck and Carolina has a tendency to add my favourites. If they can add Lehner and some D help with one of their 1sts+, they’re going to be a scary matchup in the playoffs.
“Every year I think this is the one where Green falls off, but credit to him, he just keeps on being a very good player. On the car crash of a team that is the Red Wings, Green is one the only players who is treading close to even in inner slot shots and slot pass differentials. He completes carry outs at an obscene rate, and is the only player on the list above who is significantly above average in all styles of controlled exits.
Green is also surprisingly good at defending his own blue line, by far the best on the Red Wings, and he recovers loose pucks at a higher rate than any other defenceman available.
The decline for Green as he’s entered his mid-30s has come pretty much exclusively in his offence, where he’s now below league average at even strength, but he’s always been better in other areas of the game than many wanted to give him credit for.
If you’re looking for the offensive dynamo Green once was, look elsewhere, but he is still a very strong top-four option.”
– Andrew Berkshire Sportsnet
He puts up points too, until this season.
Last season he scored 1.36 P/60 5v5. That would have been 4th among all Oilers last season >750 minutes (behind only McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge). He was 13th in P/60 among D in the NHL.
In the 3 seasons before this one he scored 1.08 P/60. 16th among NHL D >2500 minutes.
I’m really curious to see what he has left.
Me as well.
I’ve always considered him soft defensively
Let’s see what he’s got
Yeah. It’s definitely possible what’s left is “not much” but there’s upside potential here. And the cost was also “not much”.
Trochek’s gone
CAR
Mike Green is 29th in the league for Defenceman for outlet pass completions with 9.65 per game
I’m very glad we didnt pay that for Pageau and then follow it up with a 5-6 mil contract that he will probably want
Hoping for Marleau at a cheap price. Not a sexy addition but we shouldn’t be trading important pieces and valuable draft picks. Patty would look quite good on 97’s wing!
What a massive return for Pageau – thanks goodness Holland isn’t willing to play in that market this year.
2020 first rounder top 3 protected would move to 2021
No conditions on second rounder
Third rounder only if Isles win Stanley cup this year
So basically traded for a first and second
Pageau to NYI
Brassard didn’t cut it as #3 C
wow!
1st, 2nd and 3rd
Wow, acquisition price insane–even if they were getting him with term.
Conditions on all picks, but holy crap!
Totally
I really like the player (he’s good in the playoffs) but….that’s a lot
career year
18% shooting
career 11%
Namestikov for a 4th
Ennis would probably be similar
So many buyers
So few sellers
Random Oilers trade deadline prediction:
Chris Kreider is an Oiler by 3pm Eastern time.
He wouldn’t waive.
Officially? Or your speculation?
Stauffer-ese, some time last week.
(So neither official nor my speculation 🙂 )
Maybe I’ll lay off the predictions then 🙂
Since the Ennis offer was supposedly this year’s 4th, curious to see what Holland’s pitching for him now. Maybe something like a 5th this year, 4th next? A Kemp-ish prospect?
IMO, the Oilers move Persson’s RFA rights for a pick at the draft or maybe today.
He’s been passed by 3 rookies plus Bear, and Samorukov is knocking on the door.
As well as the 4th this year which limits their tradable assets
Munny,
Thanks!
The “Is BPA the best way” argument is a different argument that the one we were having.
The argument that we’re having (and it seems you’ve conceded) was that my experience of the trade was not revisionist history, but actually happened in real time.
You’re right that my junkie group are not the burning bush, but they’re right much more than wrong.
Not sure where you get Jultz and Reider as Junkie picks though.
Everyone was excited about Jultz and thought he was played too high on the roster when he was here. His success in PIT down the roster speaks to this.
I was not pro-Reider in the summer of 2018. I’ll dig up some posts later when I have time.
Fayne had mixed results but I’ll agree that it wasn’t good. Have learned lots since then.
Also,
MacKenzie’s list is an amalgamation of scout’s picks so its a great proxy for “what the NHL teams think”
I also think that most Hockey MSM isn’t good and defers to teams and managment too often, probably to maintain relationships so I get it, but its doesn’t make it good.
Its possible to hold both of these opinions at once and be correct on both.
I don’t know why you’ve moved the goalposts to me calling MacKenzie a hack. Its a strange jump from A to B on that one. Might even be a jump from A to C as you skipped an entire step.
MacKenzie rarely evaluates teams or trades and declare winners/losers, that’s not his gig.
Also,
If you are going to respond to continue the argument can you keep it in this thread?
I really don’t want to muck up the Trade Deadline Day thread with this and keeping it here shows respect to LT and the other posters.
Had a good argument with Who a few weeks back that we kept in the original thread and its the right thing to do.
And as for Green. Haven’t seen him much lately so don’t know how much of a step he’s lost but as far as numbers and performance goes I wouldn’t pay too much attention to what a 30+, offensively tilted D on a historically bad team does. Should be far more invested in a playoff hunt. We’ll see how much better he is when his give a shit/60 goes up, maybe he’s just hit the wall of age, but at that price it’s not wrong to bet for it to be a substantial difference.
Both the 2020 and 2021 third have now been conditionally traded and are not available to be traded in a move today.
I agree that the current coaching staff has indeed refused to give him any at bats above 3rd pairing this year – they see him as a 3RD, clearly.
I was just speaking to last night and the note that Lagesson played more. Willie did play more but that was because he kills penalties – at 5 on 5, Benning played more.
At the same time, it does say something that they 6 game rookie kills penalties over Benning.
Recent Benning usage could also be a function of “load management” and they don’t want to overly tax him as his most recent concussion is still somewhat fresh.
Yes for sure, last night Lagesson got 30 seconds more TOI due to being on the PK.
It remains pretty clear overall that Benning isn’t being put into higher leverage positions by Tippett, even when an opening arises.
And there are younger, higher ceiling players coming behind Benning. If Tippett doesn’t trust him over the rookies now it’s really pointless to hold onto him (beyond depth for this playoff run I guess). The writing is on the wall IMO.
Green, means they are worried about Klefbom’s durability, and, K russel’s health is worse than we thought. This is a great move because it costs us basically nothing in terms of roster. Green gives us 2-3 good years? Time for Bouchard and others to move up.
I think this allows you to move Matt Benning for good value to a rebuilding team. Matt’s a really good D man, but we have enough horses to cover his role. We may get Pageau yet.
Thanks for posting this.
I agree completely and am glad I didn’t have to write all of that.
At first trading for Green felt a bit weird considering where the team has its biggest holes but at that low price and after second thought it opens up some interesting scenarios. The obvious answer to why is depth, having some vet cover on D is always a prority for GMs come playoffs. With Russell’s health being iffy, setbacks post-concussions are never a good sign, no point in speculating further as it could just be precautious but I don’t think its guaranteed he returns at all. So the move could be purely for coverage. It’s probably the most likely scenario.
But it also opens up for some interesting secondary moves. I don’t think they move Larsson, risky to move out a 20+ tough minutes D who is a prime PKer, has been the most common partner to your top D, is somewhat playoff experienced, part of the leadership group, when heading towards playoffs. Larsson is a player type teams usually adds for a playoff push. Inconsistent results or not. And he’s been looking much better after the all star break apart from two real crappy games. So I can’t see it happening unless some team vastly overpays.
Benning would make more sense, as been discussed above Tippett is using him in a pretty sheltered role, going forward something has to give on D with guys pushing from the farm. The D puzzle is again more likely a summer task but if there’s a good fit you might as well make a move right now.
Thing with Benning is that he makes sense both for a playoff team looking for depth or a rebuilding team looking for rookie shelter. I’m in the group who thinks Benning is fine in the bottom pairing but not beyond. He’s positionally sound, plays a safe game, can make the basic pass, handles the puck ok but gets in trouble when the pace goes up, plays physical and always with heart. He doesn’t skate very well, isn’t dynamic at all and when checked hard has issues moving the puck. Overall he struggles with higher pace but doesn’t hurt you (or is a net plus) in a minor role. His numerical results in that role are as been mentioned consistently strong.
For a team like the Oilers which has more ”advanced” players coming/already here he’s a good depth guy but not a great fit as the team evolves and there are holes up front. But for a playoff team in need of defensive shelter he has enough NHL experience to be an option. And he’s both gritty enough to attract the old schoolers and his numbers solid enough to get the thumbs up from the analytics team to get more than one team interested. He’s also an RFA this summer so they can just walk away if he’s not a longterm fit.
And for a rebuilding team his strong positioning and simple game is a reasonable spot to break in rookies before moving up the lineup. He’s also vetty enough that you can count him as a solid NHLer while being young enough to grow with the team.
All that just to point out that I think there’s a pretty good market for him. Maybe Toronto is desperate enough to make a pitch, they need higher quality D, I assume they are gunning hard for Petry, but failing that they might be desperate enough to do something stupid. And they need additions throughout that D group.
Or you could package him with Pulju and see what Ottawa or Montreal would be willing to give up.
I also think, despite not being his biggest fan, Lagesson covers that 6/7/8 D positionally sound, solid in a limited role but not much upside slot fairly well going forward. At less than half the cost or so.
We’ll see what happens. Probably nothing but this could end up a far more intriguing deadline than I first thought.
Don’t know how Green skates anymore, but I doubt he skates worse than Benning.
Maybe there’s an analytics driven team out there that is willing to give up a quality forward for Benning?
Seems like a strange trade by itself.
In this case the playoff team should be Edmonton and then a trade after the playoffs
The Leftorium says “HI”
Hey! LLama forgot to include …
Lleftorium: The Edmonton Oilers defensive depth chart circa 2016-2019. I mean, who really needs Right handed defencemen anyways? Not perma-rebuild teams like the Oilers. Pffft!
Holland: You can never have enough Defensemen
Sounds like it is a depth move then
Fair enough. But if you’re saying Benning pulled a good GF% out of his ass maybe you’re not giving the non-CF% part it’s due. DFF% helps bridge that gap.
Playing against elites is unavoidable for every NHLer. All of them play against elites 20-40% of the time. No question they’re the toughest minutes and where we can learn about players, but IMO one of the biggest issues with any sports data (“real” or fancy) is sample size. It’s on the PuckIQ homepage even!
The “vs elites” sample may be more valuable in theory but it’s also closer to being in the noise than DFF% in all situations (where you still have to account for time spent vs elites to interpret fairly).
I think we can assume from the Green trade that Athanasiou is out (which is good), but so is Glendening (a useful option).
#donewithdetroit
Huh.
So I think isolating TOI vs elites is a bit tough because it’s such a small sample size. And if you ARE going to look at just TOI vs elites then you should at least look at DFF% rather than CF% (since it accounts for the quality of chances that happened on ice).
If you look at Benning’s DFF% vs elites (instead of CF) you get 45.9, 50.2, 51.7 and 51.2. You need to also take into account that minutes vs elites are the most difficult, so you don’t necessarily expect non-elite players to even break even. Among Oilers D Benning’s DFF numbers were 4th, 1st, 2nd, 1st. That doesn’t look like a 3rd pairing D does it? (and also looks a lot less like he’s pulling good GF% numbers out of his ass)
DFF vs elites aside, the stuff Armchair (and I) have posted in the past shows that by any metric (corsi, shots, goals) Benning has been better than most other Oilers D when played in the top 4 (mostly when guys like Sekera, Larsson or Russell have been injured).
The fancy stats argument (including goals, which aren’t so fancy) that Benning has been successful in top 4 minutes is very strong. Whether that holds when/if he’s given a consistent opportunity there remains to be seen.
For possession (knowing where the puck is) Corsi is superior IMO. Since I look at and include GF% too, I consider DFF to be redundant.
I look at Elites because when playing in the top 4, they’re unavoidable and the most likely source of demise. And part of the reason we see success with any bottom pairing defenseman is because of how their coach manages their minutes (or t least, I’m claiming that’s truism lol).
But you’re right, I haven’t looked at the WOWYs. It’s late so not going to worry about it tonight.
Yes, very very late.
AAV of 1.4M is the remaining space, barring no other salary dumps. Per Puckpedia.
Dammit, see now I gotta go look it up, lol…
Last three years against elites CF% 41.3, 48, 46.5. So the puck is in his end of the ice more often.
He always seems to pull great GF% out of his ass though… Coaching might see this as an anomaly and explain why there is a disconnect between the eyetest and stats… The results are there but the process isn’t. IF so, with more minutes allocated up the roster, we would see regression to the meat.
My money is on OTF shifts.
You’d think some of that would show up in the Corsi stats. I mean unless they’re not just OTF shifts but actual odd-man breaks he’s regularly coming over the boards on.
I agree, a 4th for Ennis (whatever year) sounds low.
Sure he hasn’t posted points for a few years before this one, but he’s >0.5 PPG this year and one of not that many options available.
I can’t imagine anyone would complain adding a winger who’s 61-14-19-33 for a 2021 3rd. I feel like a 3rd likely wouldn’t even get it done considering there’s probably competition for him.
I’m not seeing this on Bob’s Twitter page.
Munny,
Armchair has posted some compelling data a few times that shows the opposite.
That said, by eye he seems to plateau when asked to play top-4.
I missed the comment but it makes sense (feel like I’ve heard someone relay similar before, but not sure).
The fancies have NOT however told us that Benning isn’t a good top 4 option. Quite the opposite. It’s basically the only reason anyone thinks he might be able to play top 4 (since he consistently fails the eye test, Tippett’s included).
But yeah, Benning has had very good results (goals for/against as well as all the underlying metrics) in a pretty large sample size playing with top 4 partners. It’s an interesting case study of eye vs stats I think.
Cousins is awful in the dot and while he has taken only 37 FOs this year he did take 500+ last season. Also he doesn’t appear to PK.
Cousins would be a sandpaper add. Haven’t looked at his fancies or FOs yet
Matheson: You have Mike Green and Benning they both shoot Right
Tippett: Yeah, we’ll see how the mix comes out
Matheson: I don’t know if Mike’s ever played left
Tippett: Yeah, we’ll see how the mix comes out. We have depth now.
Wasn’t the 4th they traded the alleged offer for Ennis?
Could be offering the 2021 4th
I think it would take more than that. Like a 2021 3rd. Could be wrong though
Edmonton Oilers linked to Tyler Ennis, plus Nick Cousins of the Montreal Canadiens
@Bob_Stauffer
In more important news…
Teck has withdrawn its application for Frontier plant.
Well it depends on a lot of things. If Russell is expected back (seems like a real IF at this point, though far from sure either way) then Russell/Jones as 3rd pair/7D swingmen seems absolutely ideal. With one of Benning or Green at 3RD.
If they think Russell won’t be ready then Bouchard is a more important part of the conversation. Persson is in Bakersfield too, so IF Russell gets healthy they legit have 10D (adding Russell/Persson to the 8 you listed)
D aside the Oilers don’t really have depth anywhere. If there’s a trade for Benning (or Larsson) that brings back a top 6 winger I suspect Holland bites the bullet and does it.
That kind of D depth is great, but it’s not worth a damn if McDavid doesn’t have a winger to play with.
I don’t think Bouchard is key here, though for sure if they do think he’s “ready” then moving others will be easier.
Very doubtful they get rid of The Polisher.