Holy hell the kids helped this team get to the deadline, and in fact impacted Ken Holland’s wish list today. Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones arrive at the deadline as NHL regulars, and the needs of the team are in different areas than we would have thought back in August. That’s a fine season for the draft and development group.
Last night’s game saw the return of Captain McDavid, and another impressive button down effort in order to win a close game. After midnight, Ken Holland added Mike Green. Today? Has to be a scoring winger for the No. 1 line.
THE ATHLETIC!
The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here.
- New Jonathan Willis: Connor McDavid returns to the Oilers; now the task is to get him linemates
- New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers bolster blue line by acquiring Mike Green; Is a scoring winger next?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ European prospects offer interesting options for the future
- Jonathan Willis: The Oilers need a left wing before the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide Trade Deadline: Oilers countdown to trade deadline involves age old dilemma
- Jonathan Willis: They shoot, they don’t score: NHLers who just can’t find the back of the net
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Why cap issues mean McDavid’s return could be Oilers’ only pre-deadline move
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers lack deadline flexibility due to injuries, few assets and bonuses
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
- Lowetide: For Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto and Leon Draisaitl, first impressions are long forgotten. Why not for Jesse Puljujarvi?
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Next-night masters: How the Oilers beat the Hurricanes and improved to 6-0 in the 2nd half of back-to-backs
- Lowetide: Oilers reap benefits of Bakersfield Condors’ strong development process, even in a losing season
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
- Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer
- Jonathan Willis: 10 overlooked trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
- Lowetide: The Oilers trading their first-round pick is a bad idea
- Daniel Nugent-Bowman: 15 potential trade targets for the Oilers before the 2020 deadline
- Lowetide: Drilling down on right-handed centres for the Oilers to target before the trade deadline
- Lowetide: If fast is the new big, the Oilers are trending in a very good direction
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers are more likely to trade Adam Larsson than Kris Russell
- Lowetide: Oilers prospects Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson deliver best minor league performances in 20 years
- Jonathan Willis: An updated list of which Oilers are most likely to be traded in 2019-20
OILERS AFTER 62 GAMES
- Oilers in 2015-16: 22-34-6, 50 points; goal differential -34
- Oilers in 2016-17: 33-21-8, 74 points; goal differential +12
- Oilers in 2017-18: 27-31-4, 58 points; goal differential -33
- Oilers in 2018-19: 26-29-7, 59 points; goal differential -23
- Oilers in 2019-20: 33-22-7, 73 points; goal differential +4
Tippett’s Oilers were uncomfortable in one-goal games early in the season, or maybe I was just uncomfortable watching them in those close contests. Now it seems to change little when things get tight. Good sign for the playoffs.
ON THE TENS
- First 10 games: 7-2-1
- Second 10 games: 5-4-1
- Third 10 games: 5-4-1
- Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
- Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
- Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
- Current 10 games: 1-1-0
OILERS IN FEBRUARY
- Oilers in February 2016: 2-9-0, four points; goal differential -21
- Oilers in February 2017: 5-6-0, 10 points; goal differential -2
- Oilers in February 2018: 3-7-1, seven points; goal differential -4
- Oilers in February 2019: 3-5-3, nine points; goal differential -10
- Oilers in February 2020: 6-4-1, 13 points; goal differential +2
Lots of good things in this month, especially when you consider several of the wins came with 97 on the shelf. This team has some iron, first Oilers team in some time with it.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: CAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
- At home to: SJS, NAS, CHI (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 2-1-0)
- On the road to: TBY, FLA, CAR (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-1-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-1-1)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA, VEG (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: WPG (Expected 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-1, 17 points in 14 games
- Current results: 6-4-1, 13 points in 11 games
This sets up the road trip well, Edmonton’s game in Anaheim on Tuesday will be another big one. Of course, btb in Vegas is wildly unfair but this is the world we live in.
OILERS 2019-20
McDavid returned and flattened the NHL with six shots, a goal and two assists. We’ll talk about the Mike Green trade in a bit, but first here are the five on five numbers unless noted, and all via Natural Stat Trick.
LINE 1 Nuge-Leon Draisaitl-Kailer Yamamoto played 16:10, going 16-10 Corsi, 9-5 shots, 1-0 goals and 7-3 HDSC.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored again, he’s on fire with this line. Three shots, all HDSC, created two rebounds, damn near set up Chiasson late on the power play. Leon Draisaitl scored a power-play goal and at five on five had four shots, three HDSC, took a penalty and won 12 of 19 in the dot. He was robbed late. Kailer Yamamoto scared the hell out of everyone when he appeared to twist his ankle early on. He had an assist, a great chance that was tipped over the net, and did his usual feverish forechecking.
LINE 2 Sam Gagner-Connor McDavid-Alex Chiasson played 11:49, going 7-12 Corsi, 5-8 shots, 0-1 goals and 2-2 HDSC.
Sam Gagner had one good look but missed the net, he was useful on McDavid’s goal by making sure to be enough of a threat for Doughty to respect him. McDavid was brilliant as always, seemed to be even more effective after getting screwed over by the refs. Had a goal, six shots, three HDSC, created three rebounds and had two assists that came outside five on five. Alex Chiasson had an enormous power-play chance late, but didn’t get much done five on five.
LINE 3 Tyler Benson-Riley Sheahan-Josh Archibald played 9:25, going 7-11 Corsi, 5-7 shots, no goals and 2-4 HDSC.
Tyler Benson had a good chance early on a pass to the slot from Archibald. Had a giveaway later and is starting to hold on to the puck longer, that’s a good sign. Riley Sheahan had two shots, two giveaways and won four of 12 on the dot. Josh Archibald scored an EN goal, took a penalty and skated miles. Good player. I don’t think this line will last.
LINE 4 Jujhar Khaira-Gaetan Haas-Patrick Russell played 8:22, going 7-5 Corsi, 4-1 shots, no goals and no HDSC.
Jujhar Khaira had a reasonable chance, took a late penalty and hit several people. Gaetan Haas falls down more than any athlete since Lonnie Smith, but like Smith he does it so much his recoveries are quick and explosive. Drove the Kings crazy, drew a penalty, had one shot and won two of six on the dot. We’ll know tomorrow how the team plans to use him for the rest of the year. Patrick Russell had a third period shift that made me laugh, he just would not let that puck out of the Kings zone. He’s a dogged player.
PAIRING ONE Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear played 23:31 together, 12-11 shots, 0-1 goals and 4-2 HDSC.
Darnell Nurse didn’t play the Dustin Brown goal well but I thought he had a fine game otherwise. Knocked down pucks, was physical, broke up plays in the neutral zone. Five shots, one HDSC. Ethan Bear played what might have been his best game of the year. Seriously. Under constant pressure, he consistently calmed the waters and sent effective outlet passes. I mean he was splendid. Two shots, TK, GV, 10 miles of great passes. Spent 1:08 on the PP.
PAIRING TWO Caleb Jones and Adam Larsson played 18:49, going 8-12 Corsi, 4-6 shots, 2-0 goals and 3-5 HDSC.
Caleb Jones had a tremendous evening, grabbing two assists on good passes (one on the PP). He got beat by Kempe to the net but rookies make mistakes and Jones doesn’t make many. Adam Larsson seems to be adjusting to Jones, relying on him for speed and passing options but also dropping the hammer and allowing Jones safe passage. Had one good look and got caught with outside speed a couple of times, but overall played well.
PAIRING THREE William Lagesson and Matt Benning played 8 minutes, going 6-8 Corsi, 5-4 shots, no goals and 2-2 HDSC.
William Lagesson had two shots, one a hammer, and blocked a couple of shots. He passed well although not often. Matt Benning had one shot and a hit, I thought he played well in limited minutes.
GOALIE Mike Smith stopped 21 of 23, .913, including seven of eight HDSC. It took some time but he has emerged as the starter based on January 1+ usage.
THE MIKE GREEN TRADE
Ken Holland pulled the trigger on his third Oilers trade (dealing John Marino, acquiring James Neal) by acquiring Mike Green from the Detroit Red Wings. He’s a good addition to a group who could use some experience and I also wonder about the health of one of the RH blue (Larsson or Benning specifically) as being the catalyst for this deal.
The return for Detroit is Kyle Brodziak (to make the money work) and a pick. The pick has some caveats: It’s a 2020 fourth but becomes a third in 2021 if the Oilers make the Western Conference final and if Green plays half the games in the first two rounds.
TRADE DEADLINE
I’ll be on TSN1260’s trade deadline coverage today from 10-2, it looks like we’ll see the Oilers trade for a forward either just before or during the show. Jon and Daniel (and me) have written and are writing pieces for The Athletic to cover the Green trade (and ones to come) from every angle today. Please stay tuned and keep reading! Should be a fun day.
That goal by Athanasiou was all speed, baby!
I think the Oilers organization was very careful with Benning’s most recent recovery and return – both they and the player spoke about exactly that many times.
geowal,
AA …19 goals, 6th place.
The Oilers have been awful about the treatment and PR surrounding it’s players regarding health? Wasn’t the last situation Souray?
Sidesy, where you been?
Burgers omitting from Kenny the seriousness of McDavid’s injury on his interview? Connor’s medical team overruling the Oilers doctors?
JP getting second opinion on his hip?
Nope, they’re cleared by medical professionals that are gainfully employed by a franchise that itself belongs to an organization that has repeatedly and consistently shown that it has little interest in the safety of its players.
And the Oilers have demonstrably been awful about the treatment and PR surrounding its players.
It’s happening in real time on the NFL. How long do you think it will take before a class action suit is brought against the NHL and individuals within it?
here’s a link to a great full length documentary about the NFL’s mishandling of head trauma and sport related concussions in case anyone is interested.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SedClkAnclk
I could be wrong but when a player is medically cleared it isn’t from a family Doctor in Killam.
If that premise is used generally, most of the league will be shut down.
Lagesson was moved solely to have AHL playoff eligibility.
Benson was moved to play for the Condors – capfriendly has him on the Oilers roster still be he’s staying to play.
Glad you are now up to speed.
I don’t think that’s true – they’ve got 23 with Lagesson and Benson and 22 with Benson staying in the AHL.
Lagesson was done as a paper transaction to ensure eligibility for the AHL playoffs – if there is a miracle.
His re-call uses one of the 4 call-ups.
They now have a 22 man roster (plus all the IR and including Zack).
The have no extra healthy forwards and one extra healthy d-man.
It seems the Canes may not agree…
Ties for seventh with 17 goals for the season.
Trocheck hasn’t been the same player since sustaining an injury 15 months ago.
Ennis was the plan B for Marleau, not Athanasiou.
Bear’s 18 game stint was 2 seasons ago, in 17/18, not last season.
Ooops… my bad. I totally forgot about his injury ravaged season last year.
I need more sleep.
+/- as a bonus condition seems unusual too, no?
Haas betting on himself and the strengths of his game? He certainly has had good possession numbers and hasn’t bled goals against like a lot of recent Oilers bottom 6 ‘solutions’.
Ethan Bear had 18 games with the Oilers last year in the 3rd pairing where he struggled. During the offseason, he made changes to his diet, to his skating and to his training. He had a taste of the NHL and saw he wasn’t good enough to hold a roster spot.
This year, not only did he win a roster spot, he seems to be solidifying himself as a Top 4 D.
Benson has had 8 games with the Oilers this season. The first stint he had a few games and was largely invisible. This last group of games, he started to make more passes, hold the puck longer, and look around more trying to find better options. The game was starting to slow down for him so he’s close.
Hopefully, he is inspired and encouraged by Bear’s improvement and makes the same commitment to growth that Bear made over the summer. He now knows what the pace of play is at the NHL level and so he knows the bar he has to achieve to stay. I’m hopeful that Benson “pops” the way Bear popped this year.
I don’t see why that’s such a bad trade for the Panthers…
I guess evaluations of the parts vary as always, but is Trocheck a 75 point player or a ~55 point (pace) player like he has been every year other than that one?
He’s signed for a shade under $5M for this year and 2 more. So I see this a very similar to the Zucker and Miller moves (though Trocheck has 1 year less on his deal compared to those other two).
The return doesn’t hurt the Panthers much right now, and has significant futures. I thought it was a bit of an unusual deal in that it brought back important pieces for now and for later.
This year Trocheck for Haula and Wallmark isn’t a major loss. Haula is an expiring contract but he’s a top 6 forward. And Wallmark is a useful if unexciting player.
The futures both look to be legit prospects. Luostarinen is a 2017 2nd rounder who scored 36 points in Finland last year and got time with the World Championship team. Underwhelming first AHL season but still a real chance to be an NHLer.
Priskie was a sought after college FA D and appears to be having a very nice 1st AHL season. I’d guess both prospects are worth similar to a 2nd rounder though I could obviously be wrong.
It all seems reasonable to me, in particular if Tallon knows Trocheck needs to go in the next few months regardless. Am i missing something?
Are you positive on this item? I could not find any special loop-hole for NCAA/College in the CBA that would not allow a team to sign a free agent college or otherwise for next year’s season. Similar to how the Oiler’s signed Nygard & Day last spring.
The site below Buckys 5th Quarter talks about the burning a year process and the ATO option.
https://www.buckys5thquarter.com/wisconsin-badgers-mens-hockey/2015/3/11/8188865/nhl-cba
Any chance you can provide some details on why the Oiler’s could not sign a player such as Brinson Pasichnuk out of Arizona State?
Wow, that’s shocking! Thanks for posting this.
flea,
Gregor said he had a broken toe for 2 months too…
duct tape and foil,
Stauffer was saying today that in his opinion Benning hasn’t looked right since returning and he thinks that was a big reason for the acquisition of Green.
Yeah, you might be right there. Wouldn’t surprise me that a MSM pundit got it wrong (altho I like Gregor)
Another one was Bob saying we were in on Marleau prior to him going to Pitt—after which we got AA.
That’s quite the switch in strategy itself.
I saw that tweet as well but I heard Holland differently on that one (during Gregor’s interview with him). I think he was recapping what he wanted to do, 1- I wanted to get a defenceman, 2- I wanted to get some fw’s…
They should shut Benning down for the rest of the year. He may not show obvious symptoms from the recent events (ie he is medically cleared) but cumulative damage exists which is increasingly dangerous without adequate time to recover, and you need longer to recover from each subsequent event. The following is from a section is titled “Consequences of Repetitive Head Impacts and Multiple Concussions”
Although studies of the effects of multiple concussions on cognitive function and symptom presentation have had mixed results, more studies report unfavorable changes than do not. The most commonly observed neurocognitive impairments have been in the areas of memory and processing speed. In some studies, symptom load (i.e., the number and severity of concussion symptoms) has been found to be increased in athletes with a history of two or more concussions.
Athletes with a history of concussion may have more severe subsequent concussions and may take longer to recover. Preliminary evidence suggests that, in addition to the number of concussions an individual has sustained, the time interval between concussions may be an important factor in the risk for and the severity of subsequent concussions.
Surveys of retired professional athletes provide some evidence of a positive association between the number of concussions an individual has sustained and risk for depression. There has thus far been very little research on the relationship between multiple concussions and suicidal thoughts and behaviors.
Se here for the full review: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK185336/
a colleague of mine in the UK has been doing research on sport related concussions from a sociological perspective for a while. I Literally just gave a lecture on this stuff yesterday in my sport sociology class.
the depression/mental health and social impacts of head trauma isn’t given nearly enough attention. it’s not just a medical issue.
I know, I was thinking the same after I posted my last response… how long can Tallon endure this crap?
First there was the ownership change, and then those (3?) guys didn’t have the same philosophies… so you had them buying into stats, dropping their stats team, re-starting the project. They went from buyers to sellers to buyers to sellers… snap coaching changes. It’s been a whirlwind.
I wonder if Tallon stays just to bring some level of stability to the org… out of sympathy for coaching, the fans, the players, etc
Of all the weird things…
Okay we all know Smith has bonuses in his contract, which are vesting as he plays more and more games… if KRusty is out till game 1 of the playoffs, this is not an issue because LTIR will soak up the bonuses.
KY is on an ELC so of course has bonuses too. The most realistic of his is 20 goals, which IIRC gets him $25k (please correct me if my memory is a sieve).
BUT…
Gaetan Haas also has a bonus-laden ELC contract… up to $637k’s worth, far more than Yammertime.
I can’t seem to find the bonus triggers on CF anywhere, but Bob mentioned one on the show today… Haas earns $200k if he finishes top 3 in +/- on the team. He’ll never catch KY or Benning, but the next guy after that is only +2 ahead of Haas.
Take your time, Cowboy…
DNB has a piece up at the Athletic a few days ago outlining the bonuses for the Oilers
https://theathletic.com/1621617/2020/02/20/oilers-lack-deadline-flexibility-due-to-injuries-few-assets-and-bonuses/
Are you sure you can use LTIR to cover off performance bonuses..? I don’t think you can but I could be mistaken
I don’t think so either, but don’t think it’s a problem. You use LTIR to cover off salary, so that you can use cap space on bonuses. Basically has the same effect.
Munny,
Wow, I don’t know how a person could work with an owner like that; even HH doesn’t flip flop to that degree.
Material Elvis,
One of the comments that I heard on NHL Network today—can’t remember by whom, might have been Barnaby he’s on a lot—was that there is no consistency of strategy in FLA from year-to-year. That ownership keeps changing the goals radically every damn year.
Ok I suppose owner meddling would make sense; wouldn’t be the first time. But why would he agree to pay Bob that contract last summer if he’s looking to cut payroll already? Plus they were trying to sign Bread Man for huge money, too. I didn’t consider the Ryan Whitney angle but you’d think Carolina would have done their due-diligence on that before pulling the trigger. And I don’t think he would have gotten less in the summer, sooooo….?
Material Elvis,
Apparently Tallon was told to cut $10M in salary from the roster before next season. That’s what Stauffer was saying today.
But that doesn’t explain… why now? Unless Tallon felt that prices being the way they were this week, he wouldn’t do any better in the summer.
The other possibility is that the Org feels Trocheck is permanently damaged goods and will never get back to being the same player… and it’s better to trade him before he proves it to the whole League.
There is an infamous poster on this site who used to pray at the church of Tallon. He’s quiet tonight.
Tallon made one of the dumbest trades today that I’ve ever seen. That Trochek deal….what the fuck was that?!
Andy Dufresne,
This is like Xmas day to me.I wanted Ennis and AA.Hooray and Holland for President!
The 23 man roster limit actually disappears at 12:01am of deadline day. They were moved solely to make them eligible for the Condors… in case they somehow miracle their way into the AHL playoffs
Ryan,
jp,
That is a much better one-timer than I was expecting…
Agreed.
I think his shot, in general, is underrated.
AA and McDavid on the same line is worth the price of admission.
Never in the history of the NHL have there been two guys that fast on the same line, ever.
That’s me simply stating a fact.
We know that the water skiing per sixty will be incredibly high.
Hopefully the zebras call it.
I’d welcome JP back and I think him coming to camp is the best way for the Oilers to get max value for him, even if that means trading him after he establishes himself again
But I think Kenny is going to be motivated to recoup some of the spent assets today, and trading JP for a pick(s) seems like the likely course of action imo
Damn yeah.
The moves and breakaway speed are great, but that shot from the FO circle is what McDavid serves up on a platter so often.
A lot of different elements are there for Athanasiou to complement McDavid really nicely.
For a balanced perspective a video of goals conceded as a result of his defensive limitations would be nice. Just sayin’.
Good news!
Long ago, David Staples figured out that wingers have the least amount of defensive responsibility!
Also, Bruce’s cousin from a different sibling showed that AA is not the defensive liability that his green jacket suggests.
https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1232005703348477953
As for JP. I think there’s potential gold in that one-timer.
They needed to get down to a 23 man roster pre-deadline. So Lagesson (and Benson) got sent down. Once the deadline was past, the 23 man roster restriction is gone.
so not a drop for JP hey?
Maybe he comes to training camp next year afterall.
Whenver I’ve seen AA, he’s looked really dangerous. This is a great call.
No one was stating they were. We clearly distinguished between the two cases. However you were stating ALL new NCAA free agent contracts would be prohibited, but in fact that is not the case… only the very rare situation where the player would play this year.
Glad you’re up-to-speed now, lol.
Its just regular season.
My optimistic magic 8 ball says 8 goals… finishing with 18!
He’ll finish sixth on the Oilers.
I don’t know if I’d use the word “wasted” but, yes, he was put on the Condors roster for the deadline to be AHL playoff eligible and then re-called to the Oilers using up on of their 4 non-emergency post deadline call-ups.
I assume that was one of the game McDavid was suspended for?
Great day to be an Oiler fan. Holland did exactly what I didn’t think he would do – make a hockey trade on deadline day. And he got a great price for AA!!!! Even if AA ends up being just a good third liner, the upside to this trade is easily worth the price he paid.
The one thing with Neal is I wonder how long he was playing hurt. He took a game off back in November I think, and ever since then he hasn’t played well when he was in the lineup.
If he can get healthy again he may come back better than before.
If I’ve learned anything reading Lowetide over the past decade, is that injuries are a leading cause of performance regression. Hockey is a brutal sport.
7 goals in 20 games with the Oilers, giving him 17.
Which would put him 7th (Kassian and Ennis are at 14 now, I think each gets 4+ through the 20 games to stay ahead of Athanasiou).
only Reg Season
Do we know for certain if the Neal/Lucic 3rd round pick vests if Neal score 21 goals in the regular season and including the playoffs…?
Or is it just the regular season..?
The condition(s) I can find on Puckpedia and Capfriendly says the 2019/2020 season. Are the playoffs included in the season..?
Where I come from, they call the play-offs the Post Season.
cheers thanks
I don’t see Neal getting a lot of ice-time from here forward [barring injuries].
The PP is doing fine without him.
He’s 9th-ish in 5v5 points, which leaves him sharing 4th line RW with Chiasson & Russell.
Edit: Plus, there is no need for the 21 goal clause to kick in, is there?
This is correct, however, the 50 contracts is prohibitive of those NCAA players that will require the first year to vest right away as a condition to their signing – normally the higher end.
Of course, Holland and his team can divest of a contract in a separate transaction if they are in line to sign one of these guys.