2019-20 Game 68: Oilers at Blackhawks

by Lowetide

We’re reaching a point in the season where we can begin to talk about playoff lines and pairings. Two impact scoring lines, a third “checking” line (although all lines check now, at least if they want to stay in the league) and then a fourth line that resembles my shed in summer (lawn mower, rake, paint, varsol, 400 gloves, beer bottles, random two by four, rabbit who has spent years with me and never paid a day’s rent). Four defensemen who you can go to war with, a goalie you can count on and a goalie you can hotwire in a pinch. We’re almost there.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: Reasonable expectations for Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Ennis over the next 15 games. (will link)
  • New Jonathan Willis: Ryan McLeod offers the Oilers size and speed. But will he score in the NHL?
  • New Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
  • Lowetide: How the Oilers deadline deals might alter summer plans
  • Jonathan Willis: Splitting Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl saved the Oilers’ season
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2017 draft and the value of waiting five years
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers’ AHL factory has produced three NHL defencemen, with more on the way
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Are Oilers poised for a long playoff run after Ken Holland’s deadline moves?
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers forward depth chart for the summer
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Stepping out and up, Leon Draisaitl puts himself in the Hart Trophy mix in Connor McDavid’s absence
  • Lowetide: Making sense of the Oilers defensive depth chart for the stretch run and the summer

OILERS AFTER 68 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015-16: 26-35-7, 59 points; goal differential -30
  • Oilers in 2016-17: 35-24-9, 79 points; goal differential +10
  • Oilers in 2017-18: 30-34-4, 64 points; goal differential -35
  • Oilers in 2018-19: 30-31-7, 67 points; goal differential -21
  • Oilers in 2019-20: 36-23-8, 80 points; goal differential +7

I don’t believe this year’s team will finish with 103 points (the final total of the 2016-17 team) but this has been an enjoyable ride since the new year. What a tremendous 9 1/2 weeks. I would not be shocked if Edmonton won the division, that’s how strong January-March has been for this team. Not yet balanced, but wildly effective in specific game states and slivers of five on five.

ON THE TENS

  • First 10 games: 7-2-1
  • Second 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Third 10 games: 5-4-1
  • Fourth 10 games: 3-6-1
  • Fifth 10 games: 6-2-2
  • Sixth 10 games: 6-3-1
  • Current 10 games: 4-2-1

OILERS IN MARCH

  • Oilers in March 2016: 2-1-0, four points; goal differential +2
  • Oilers in March 2017: 1-1-1, three points; goal differential -1
  • Oilers in March 2018: 1-2-0, two points; goal differential -2
  • Oilers in March 2019: 3-0-0, six points; goal differential +6
  • Oilers in March 2020: 2-0-0, two points; goal differential +6

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

  • On the road to: NAS, DAL, CHI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 2-0-0)
  • At home to: CBJ, WPG, VEG, NYI (Expected 2-2-0)
  • On the road to: PHI, WAS, OTT (Expected 1-1-1)
  • At home to: TBY, ANA, COL, SJS, ANA, VEG (Expected: 3-2-1)
  • Overall expected result: 7-6-3, 17 points in 16 games
  • Current results: 2-0-0, 4 points in two games

Chicago has been pushing in recent days, the team is just 5-5-0 in its last 10 but have won three in a row. Edmonton will be at home for most of the rest of the season after tonight, playing 10 of the final 14 at home.

OILERS 2019-20

I’m hopeful coach Tippett shakes up the McDavid line, options include moving up Zack Kassian to replace Josh Archibald and my guess is James Neal will also be under consideration. Also hopeful Oscar Klefbom returns, I’d like to see Klefbom-Larsson, Nurse-Bear and Jones-Benning. Your mileage may vary.

Lots of room to wheel if the cap goes to $85 million, Edmonton could sign Bear long term or sign goalie Robin Lehner as a free agent. Above, I traded Adam Larsson to Toronto, Jesse Puljujarvi, William Lagesson and two members of Mahogany Rush to Ottawa. I attempted to do what Ken Holland might try to accomplish as opposed to my own wishes (I wouldn’t return Mike Smith or Kris Russell).

We should be headed for an Edmonton-Vancouver opening round series but the goalie woes on the left coast combined with a smart run by the Flames have this looking like a BOA (and no, not Black Oak Arkansas) spring.

The first playoff game between the two teams went down April 14, 1983 with the Oilers winning 6-3 on four Mark Messier goals. Boxscore is here.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

The week is roaring to a conclusion, we get a head start at 10 this morning, TSN1260. We’ll be joined by Michael Hurley from CBS Boston and will talk Brady leaving the Patriots, Bruins chances at Stanley, Red Sox 2020 and more. Frank Seravalli from TSN pops in a little after 11 to chat about cap, coronavirus and first-round playoff matchups. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Woodguy v2.0

WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Central
STL 23
COL 22
DAL 16

Subparific
VGP 14
EDM 13
CGY 9

Wildcard
VAN 8
MIN 7

Ooot of playoffs
NSH 6
WPG 6
ARI 6
CHI 2
SJS -4
ANA -5
LAK -10

-While CGY is 6th in the WC by points percentage, they are 11th in regulation wins. Pretenders.

Relevant games tonight:

EDM (-105) at CHI (-115) – EDM has value here.

DAL (-110) at NSH (-110) – I’m avoiding this game. DAL is way better but the first game back after the tornado tragedy is likely to be filled with emotion.

MIN (-120) at SJS (+100) – SJS has value. Won 3 in a row, Horseteeth is back and there’s a story that they had a meeting and decided to stop feeling sorry for themselves and play.

Lastly Doobie is expected to start for MIN. He’s been the worst goalie via Goals Save Above Expected this season. I can’t imagine trying to play professional sports with a young family when your wife is fighting for her life

jtblack

Who is Horseteeth?

I did not know Dubnyk’s wife was sick?

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville

jtblack:
Who is Horseteeth?

I did not know Dubnyk’s wife was sick?

I too did not know about Doobies wife. ???

Horsetooth rhymes with Cogan Louture

Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons

“Subparific” is my favourite so far.

Thanks for these daily updates, Woodguy.

jtblack

Tell us more about this shed. WHAT else is in there ?

OilClog

Pigeon feathers

GordieHoweHatTrick

Raccoon feces

Woodguy v2.0

EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Atlantic
BOS 29
TBY 21
TOR 11

Metropolitan
WSH 20
PHI 19
PIT 17

Wildcard
NYI 13
CAR 11

Out of playoffs
CBJ 11
NYI 8
FLA 7
MTL 3
BUF 0
NJD -2
OTT -9
DET -33

-CAR has play 4(!) less games than CBJ

Relevant wildcard games today:

BOS (-160) at FLA (+140) – Genuis Tallon’s team is spinning down the drain.

WSH (-140) at NYR (+120) – WSH is still struggling. Rags PDO coming down to earth. WSH played last night. Rags might be worth a unit.

CAR (+115) at PHI (-135) – CAR has lost 3 in a row. No team can afford lose Hamilton and Pesce. PHI won last night and JVR broke his hand. Still like PHI.

NYI (-150) at OTT (+130) – No value here at all imo

TOR (-175) at LAK (+155) – If Petersen starts LAK is worth a unit. Best GSAx in the league since Jan 1. If Quick starts there is no value here.

v4ance

A lot of the crowing about Draisaitl’s “value deal” is “I told you so!” or “I knew it all along!” based on 20/20 hindsight. The problem is that when we signed Leon, we didn’t have as much information as we have now.

So going back in the time machine, what did we know in the summer of 2017? Drai was a high drafted pick who started slow in his first two seasons but got better fast. In his 3rd season and the end of his ELC, he was mostly on McDavid’s wing and by the playoffs, he was shifted to run his own line. He had good regular season results but was that a McDavid mirage? He had a good playoff but was that just youthful adrenaline and lightning in a bottle; never to be caught again? Small samples sizes can burn you and that’s what we were betting the extension on.

Draisaitl’s comparables would have been anyone signing their second contract after the 3 year ELC and who was a high draft pick or someone coming off the ELC who scored like a top line forward. So let’s look at who Mike Liut, the agent, and Peter Chiarelli, the GM, would have used as comparables.

Coming out of the lockout, second contract comparables showing RFA years and UFA years covered during those deals: $8.7M x 5 Crosby 4 RFA 1 UFA
$6.3M x 5 Toews 4 RFA 1 UFA
$6.3M x 5 Kane 4 RFA 1 UFA
$6.7M x 10 Backstrom 4 RFA 6 UFA
$7.5M x 5 Stamkos 4 RFA 1 UFA
$5.5M x 6 Tavares 4 RFA 2 UFA
$6M x 7 Hall 4 RFA 3 UFA
$5.75M x 6 Seguin 4 RFA 2 UFA
$6M x 7 Nuge 4 RFA 3 UFA
$5.57M x 7 Landeskog 4 RFA 2 UFA
$6M x 6 Forsberg 4 RFA 2 UFA
$6.125M x 8 Scheifele 4 RFA 4 UFA
$6.3 x 7 MacKinnon 4 RFA 3 UFA
$5.9 x 6 Barkov 4 RFA 2 UFA
$6.375 x 7 Monahan 4 RFA 3 UFA
$6.75 x 6 Gaudreau 5 RFA 1 UFA

$12.5M x 8 McDavid 4 RFA 4 UFA
$8.5 x 8 Drai 4 RFA 4 UFA <— Chiarelli starts fucking it up for everyone
$6.7 x 6 Pastrnak 4 RFA 2 UFA
$10M x 8 Eichel 4 RFA 2 UFA <— Eichel says thanks Chia!

$6 x 7 Ehlers 4 RFA 3 UFA
$6.9 x 6 Nylander 4 RFA 2 UFA
$10.9M x 6 Marner 4 RFA 2 UFA <— Every agent starts taking advantage after this
$9.25M x 6 Rantanen 4 RFA 2 UFA
$11.6M x 5 Matthews 4 RFA 1 UFA

Drai's market comparables would have been Barkov Scheifele Filip Forsberg and Seguin. Everyone else produced as a Top 3 forward straight from the draft without any time in the CHL/lower leagues. Even if we used the entire list, most of the competition ended up with 2nd contracts under $6.75M AAV.

Using numbers to project what would have been reasonable, let's start with the "standard" 6x $6M ($36M total) RFA extension that was the basic template for 7 years. If we extraoplate UFA years to cost $10M per season (using Ryan Johansen's $8M AAV in 2017), that would have gotten us to $46M ($6.6M AAV) over 7 years or $56M ($7M AAV) over 8 years. Within the realm of "reasonable" especially with the Gaudreau ($6.75M AAV) contract signed in 2016. That's basically a 5% raise year over year; same as the escalator on the salary cap.

How do we get to $8.5M AAV x 8 years($68M)? ASSUMING the initial 6 years is now $6.75 AAV ($40.5M or 12% increase), you need to also assume that the UFA years are $13.75M AAV (or 13.5% increase) to get to $68M. If the salary cap is only going up by 5% and your raise is going to be 12-14%, something is out of whack. Remember, this is what they settled on… so what was the intial ask; $9M AAV and Chiarelli "bargained" them down? Everyone else is giving 5% raises to match the cap rise but ChiaPete almost triples it? That's some pretty ugly negotiation skills but then again, we saw that time and again with Trader Pete.

Chiarelli reset the 2nd contract elite player market by caving to Leon's demands without a fight. All high end players will get this bump and it's not just "inflation". It's a full market correction affecting the salary scale from top to bottom that's still rippling through rosters today as managers move money from the veterans and give more of it to the youngsters.

Why not bridge Leon then? Get a few bargain years? Well, the prime example of bridging an elite player and having it come back to burn you is PK Subban. The contentious 2nd contract negotiation dragged out and hurt feelings remained after. Subban came into the 3rd contract with a Norris and a chip on his shoulder and got full pay for the next 2 RFA years and 6 years of UFA in the 8 year extension. Our own more local example is Jeff Petry as well. You identify a key piece or a star, don't bridge. Sign them for as long and as cheap as you can. Long Chia did; cheap, it was not.

Look, we couldn't have guaranteed that Drai would be a top 5 player for the past 2 years even though we hoped. We didn't know if he could drive his own line but it took 3 years for a coach to try and yes, he can do it and admirably! That belief has paid off in spades but the Oilers took most of the risk upfront gambling on Drai's PROJECTED development.

The problem with projected development is that it doesn't always go the way you think or hope or believe. Based on his prior development, we ddn't know if we were betting on Kunitz or Malkin to use a Penguins example. I'm glad he turned out like Malkin but if he was more like Kunitz, our cap would have been fucked. Considering the player evaluation skills the organization displayed during the Chiarelli tenure, you have to look at any evaluations they made with skepticism.

Not that Pete didn't fuck up the cap anyways. It's not just this one decision that stunk. The pattern of stupidity is the proof of how bad it was and how he was ended and how we're still digging out from it today.

We hoped for the best and it turned out like always is one of our mantras. For at least one rare moment, we hoped for the best and it turned out even better. But the decision making process was flawed start to finish.

OilClog

Calgary sucks, Bogusfart Rampoleton touches pigeons.

v4ance

Yes Calgary sucks but they got Monahan and Gaudreau for under $7M AAV.

Chia sucks more!

Though, the one benefit is the Tkachuk 3rd contract is gonna be UUUUUUU-gly! That’s a Subban waiting to happen right there! They’re gonna pay the Draisaitl-penalty and then some.

OilClog

Incorrect, while Chia sucks. Calgary is the ultimate suck that’s just facts.

v4ance

Well, when you’re right, you’re right.

But Chiarelli sucks worse than Treliving!

And Treliving sucks pretty bad too!

Look at that Tkachuk contract!

Woogie63

Looking for wingers?

Player/position/ranking their league scoring table/points

Strome RW 34, 59 points
Hopkins LW, 38, 58 points
Puljarjarvi RW, 3, 52 points
Sleoyshev RW/LW, 12, 45 points
Eberle RW, 141, 38 points
Kassian RW, 195, 31 points

Why couldn’t TMac unlock these guys

OilClog

TMac’s nickname in the coaching inner circles is Calgary sucks, that’s why.

who

v4ance:
A lot of the crowing about Draisaitl’s “value deal” is “I told you so!” or “I knew it all along!” based on 20/20 hindsight.The problem is that when we signed Leon, we didn’t have as much information as we have now.

So going back in the time machine, what did we know in the summer of 2017?Drai was a high drafted pick who started slow in his first two seasons but got better fast.In his 3rd season and the end of his ELC, he was mostly on McDavid’s wing and by the playoffs, he was shifted to run his own line.He had good regular season results but was that a McDavid mirage?He had a good playoff but was that just youthful adrenaline and lightning in a bottle; never to be caught again?Small samples sizes can burn you and that’s what we were betting the extension on.

Draisaitl’s comparables would have been anyone signing their second contract after the 3 year ELC and who was a high draft pick or someone coming off the ELC who scored like a top line forward. So let’s look at who Mike Liut, the agent, and Peter Chiarelli, the GM, would have used as comparables.

Coming out of the lockout, second contract comparables showing RFA years and UFA years covered during those deals: $8.7M x 5 Crosby 4 RFA 1 UFA
$6.3M x 5 Toews 4 RFA 1 UFA
$6.3M x 5 Kane 4 RFA 1 UFA
$6.7M x 10 Backstrom 4 RFA 6 UFA
$7.5M x 5 Stamkos 4 RFA 1 UFA
$5.5M x 6 Tavares 4 RFA 2 UFA
$6M x 7 Hall 4 RFA 3 UFA
$5.75M x 6 Seguin 4 RFA 2 UFA
$6M x 7 Nuge 4 RFA 3 UFA
$5.57M x 7 Landeskog 4 RFA 2 UFA
$6M x 6 Forsberg 4 RFA 2 UFA
$6.125M x 8 Scheifele 4 RFA 4 UFA
$6.3 x 7 MacKinnon 4 RFA 3 UFA
$5.9 x 6 Barkov 4 RFA 2 UFA
$6.375 x 7 Monahan 4 RFA 3 UFA
$6.75 x 6 Gaudreau 5 RFA 1 UFA

$12.5M x 8 McDavid 4 RFA 4 UFA
$8.5 x 8 Drai 4 RFA 4 UFA <— Chiarelli starts fucking it up for everyone
$6.7 x 6 Pastrnak 4 RFA 2 UFA
$10M x 8 Eichel 4 RFA 2 UFA <— Eichel says thanks Chia!

$6 x 7 Ehlers 4 RFA 3 UFA
$6.9 x 6 Nylander 4 RFA 2 UFA
$10.9M x 6 Marner 4 RFA 2 UFA <— Every agent starts taking advantage after this
$9.25M x 6 Rantanen 4 RFA 2 UFA
$11.6M x 5 Matthews 4 RFA 1 UFA

Drai’s market comparables would have been Barkov Scheifele Filip Forsberg and Seguin.Everyone else produced as a Top 3 forward straight from the draft without any time in the CHL/lower leagues.Even if we used the entire list, most of the competition ended up with 2nd contracts under $6.75M AAV.

Using numbers to project what would have been reasonable, let’s start with the “standard” 6x $6M ($36M total) RFA extension that was the basic template for 7 years. If we extraoplate UFA years to cost $10M per season (using Ryan Johansen’s $8M AAV in 2017), that would have gotten us to $46M ($6.6M AAV) over 7 years or $56M ($7M AAV) over 8 years. Within the realm of “reasonable” especially with the Gaudreau ($6.75M AAV) contract signed in 2016.That’s basically a 5% raise year over year; same as the escalator on the salary cap.

How do we get to $8.5M AAV x 8 years($68M)? ASSUMING the initial 6 years is now $6.75 AAV ($40.5M or 12% increase), you need to also assume that the UFA years are $13.75M AAV (or 13.5% increase) to get to $68M. If the salary cap is only going up by 5% and your raise is going to be 12-14%, something is out of whack.Remember, this is what they settled on… so what was the intial ask; $9M AAV and Chiarelli “bargained” them down?Everyone else is giving 5% raises to match the cap rise but ChiaPete almost triples it? That’s some pretty ugly negotiation skills but then again, we saw that time and again with Trader Pete.

Chiarelli reset the 2nd contract elite player market by caving to Leon’s demands without a fight.All high end players will get this bump and it’s not just “inflation”. It’s a full market correction affecting the salary scale from top to bottom that’s still rippling through rosters today as managers move money from the veterans and give more of it to the youngsters.

Why not bridge Leon then?Get a few bargain years?Well, the prime example of bridging an elite player and having it come back to burn you is PK Subban.The contentious 2nd contract negotiation dragged out and hurt feelings remained after.Subban came into the 3rd contract with a Norris and a chip on his shoulder and got full pay for the next 2 RFA years and 6 years of UFA in the 8 year extension. Our own more local example is Jeff Petry as well.You identify a key piece or a star, don’t bridge.Sign them for as long and as cheap as you can.Long Chia did; cheap, it was not.

Look, we couldn’t have guaranteed that Drai would be a top 5 player for the past 2 years even though we hoped.We didn’t know if he could drive his own line but it took 3 years for a coach to try and yes, he can do it and admirably!That belief has paid off in spades but the Oilers took most of the risk upfront gambling on Drai’s PROJECTED development.

The problem with projected development is that it doesn’t always go the way you think or hope or believe.Based on his prior development, we ddn’t know if we were betting on Kunitz or Malkin to use a Penguins example.I’m glad he turned out like Malkin but if he was more like Kunitz, our cap would have been fucked.Considering the player evaluation skills the organization displayed during the Chiarelli tenure, you have to look at any evaluations they made with skepticism.

Not that Pete didn’t fuck up the cap anyways.It’s not just this one decision that stunk.The pattern of stupidity is the proof of how bad it was and how he was ended and how we’re still digging out from it today.

We hoped for the best and it turned out like always is one of our mantras.For at least one rare moment, we hoped for the best and it turned out even better.But the decision making process was flawed start to finish.

Let it go already

OilClog

You could of hit the proper reply button so we didn’t have to see this wall multiple times, I declare Calgary sucks.

Fuhr and Lowething in Vegreville

Woodguy v2.0:

-While CGY is 6th in the WC by points percentage, they are 11th in regulation wins.Pretenders.

Love the reverse HH troll.

Beauty. ???

Coiler

Traded Larsson to Toronto?? Say it ain’t so LT. Say it ain’t so.

frjohnk

With everyone healthy, I am really liking this teams chances of making some noise in the playoffs.

Maybe not as much noise as is coming from LT’s shed…

Wonder Llama

Haven’t thought about Mahogany Rush in awhile. Didn’t the Oilers already trade a Marino?

9 1/2 Weeks. Didn’t end well, but iirc there’s a scene in which Mickey Rourke has Kim Basinger over to his apartment for the first time. He turns on his sound system (doubtless purchased from International Stereo) and the cassette deck physically spins a cassette around to play the other side. I thought this was the coolest thing I’d ever seen and made it my mission in life to have a stereo like that to impress women. I found out women don’t care about your cool stereo.

Rabbits are notorious freeloaders. Smoke your stuff and drink all your wine.

who

Going to quibble with your projected defense pairings for next season.
I don’t see Holland going into the season with Matt Benning at 2RD. Especially when his 3RD is a rookie.
My guess is, either Larrson plays out his contract in Edmonton, or Holland signs Green, or some other veteran righty, to a short term contract.
Tippett has shown no indication of trusting Benning with anything more than 3rd pairing minutes. At this point it’s difficult to see Bennings game taking a significant leap forward.

PaperKurtRussell

My nickname for Benning is “one iota”, as in he has not improved one iota since his rookie year. (Pretty sure that was a Don Cherry reference from the old book Grapes) He was a good 3rd pairing guy then and now. I generally expect rookies to improve, but some don’t really for whatever reason. I still like the player.

Dustylegnd

He was an older rookie…less runway for improvement

tileguy

jtblack:
Tell us more about this shed. WHAT else is in there ?

An 8 year old bologna sandwich that his wife accidentally smeared mustard on while his was laying patio stones.

Soup Fascist

tileguy: An 8 year old bologna sandwich that his wife accidentally smeared mustard on while his was laying patio stones.

Isn’t a bologna sandwich just a poor man’s version of the hot dog – sorry, hot dog sandwich?

frjohnk

Keep Larsson, trade Russell.

I think Ennis or AA will fill that left wing spot next year.

Justthestatsman

Fun to look at that box score. Talk about nostalgia. Checking the penalties, I’m reminded the playoff games were a lot nastier than they are today, at least in terms of fights. If you have time, scroll over to game 3 of that series. Semenko got 35 PIMs including fighting, a match penalty and a game misconduct at 4:01 of the first period. Coffey scored shorthanded on the PK and Oilers win 10-2. Good times!

LadiesloveSmid

jtblack:
Tell us more about this shed. WHAT else is in there ?

There’s a lockbox with a strand of white stick tape on it. In sharpie on it,

“OPEN IN CASE OF BALANCE”

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

Is this the same shed that Lowe and Burke were gonna rent to settle their differences?

nvan97

v4ance,

Show me the last time a team overpaid for a high quality RFA and I will show you a dozen that signed for incredible value. The market inefficiency in the NHL is the high end RFAs, they are paid woefully low amounts for both actual and projected value. Sure Chia paid on the high end of the scale but these deals rarely don’t work out for the team.

v4ance

There some nuance that you and others are not understanding.

I’m not arguing that elite 2nd contract RFA players DON’T deserve the money. I agree. They deserve every penny and are underpaid relatively to the veterans.

My argument is Chiarelli handicapped our organization by not using the same negotiation standards that previous GMs had used. Tavares, Hall, Seguin, etc…. the entire list before McDavid and Drai are extreme value deals for the teams.

The top Stanley Cup winners (and even the contenders) for this year and the past 7 years have multiple players who signed these value deals. It lengthened the teams ability to stay in contention during these players’ most productive seasons because they could use those “saved” dollars to help the roster elsewhere.

Peter Chiarelli had a pending Stanley Cup contender in his hand in 2015. With bad trades and bad contracts, he dithered away the first 4 years of McDavid’s career undoing a lot of the groundwork that Lowe, Tambellini, and McTavish had laid down before him. I firmly believe that McDavid should have won a cup by now.

On the flip side, this Draisaitl penalty will affect all teams going forward. But we’ve penalized our team up front and hurt our ability to compete the first 3 years of Drai’s extension. Would $1 million more per year have helped each of the last 3 years capwise? I think so.

SkatinginSand

I don’t think laying groundwork means what you think it does.

v4ance

End of 2014 the Oilers roster had:
Hall
Eberle
RNH
Drai
Klef
Nurse
1st overall (McDavid)
15 &33……. insert high end prospect(s)

and the picks used on Bear and Jones. (half credit to McTavish’s amateur scouts, half credit to Chiarelli for trusting them to still make those selections)

$20 million in cap space to improve

McTavish’s failing was not surrounding the elite kids with good enough vets because the pro scouting sucked. Also he couldn’t keep more than 3 good defencemen in the house at any one time. But at least he didn’t flush the top 6 high value talent that he inherited.

A competent GM could have taken those pieces and made a really great team around McDavid. Instead we ripped out the plumbing and started over again.

pts2pndr

+ 100
Very well put and todays reality. Pay for what a player can do for you rather than pay for what he did for some one else. The stupidity of paying UFAs for their retirement on their past performance is for losers. Big names may sell tickets in the U.S. but they don’t win you championships in the new NHL cap world.

Bulging Twine

Friedman said on Tim and Sid that as next season was a potential lockout year there is less money in the system due to the way contracts were structured therefore escrow may be less of an issue next season, even possibly going the other way, as in the owners being in escrow and so if there were any year that the players would use the full 5% inflator it may be next year.

tileguy

I am so curious as to who is the starting goalie tonight, the guy with the hot hand and better numbers, or the karate kid.

v4ance

tileguy:
I am so curious as to who is the starting goalie tonight, the guy with the hot hand and better numbers, or the karate kid.

What? Ralph Macchio is our EBUG?

Side

Also in LT’s shed:

A framed photo of Fernando Pisani.

SkatinginSand

And an autographed one of Stan Weir.

pts2pndr

Signed copy ?

Bulging Twine

Woogie63:
Looking for wingers?

Player/position/ranking their league scoring table/points

Strome RW 34, 59 points
Hopkins LW, 38, 58 points
Puljarjarvi RW, 3, 52 points
Sleoyshev RW/LW, 12, 45 points
Eberle RW, 141, 38 points
Kassian RW, 195, 31 points

Why couldn’t TMac unlock these guys

It’s interesting that rebuilding teams Anaheim and LA hired Eakins and McLellan which have question marks regarding their ability to bring along and maximize young players.

N64

Woodguy v2.0: Subparific
VGP 14
EDM 13
CGY 9

Wildcard
VAN 8
MIN 7

Ooot of playoffs
NSH 6
WPG 6
ARI 6

Every now and again and again and again we heard from the a certain Hairworm that the gap was too small and that fill in the blank would leave us in the dust soon

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, but S. tellinii (google that one it’s apt) could not manage twice in a season

Dys are now 5 back of the Oil on the Woodguy leaderboard. Sinking like a stone with FOUR teams within 2 ready to run over them.

N64

Bulging Twine: Friedman said on Tim and Sid that as next season was a potential lockout year

Why would he say that? CBA expires after the 2021–22 season.

Is that something he said long ago?. The date to terminate early has passed.

dustrock

v4ance: What? Ralph Macchio is our EBUG?

He’s the best around.

v4ance

I suppose he doesn’t flop around as much as Smith.

Ralph’s been on that pole working on his balance for years!

N64

Woodguy v2.0: Subparific

It’s only the subpar-ific division because its greatness is currently buried in Utica

leadfarmer

Adam Larsson for Johnsson is a maple Leafs hfboard like trade proposal
There is no way I would do that trade

Cassandra

That is pretty funny because there is no way the Leafs would do that trade either. Getting someone like Johnsson for Larsson is an Oiler hfboard trade proposal.

I think it is an open question whether the Leafs would trade a mid range draft pick for Larsson. I say not.

Larsson doesn’t make the Leafs better.

Hankster

Cassandra:
That is pretty funny because there is no way the Leafs would do that trade either.Getting someone like Johnsson for Larsson is an Oiler hfboard trade proposal.

I think it is an open question whether the Leafs would trade a mid range draft pick for Larsson.I say not.

Larsson doesn’t make the Leafs better.

Cassandra:
That is pretty funny because there is no way the Leafs would do that trade either.Getting someone like Johnsson for Larsson is an Oiler hfboard trade proposal.

I think it is an open question whether the Leafs would trade a mid range draft pick for Larsson.I say not.

Larsson doesn’t make the Leafs better.

It would take someone who isn’t so biased and blinded to impart any readable opinion on Larsson. Many people here are still stuck on Taylor Hall. Thank goodness we got rid of that guy, otherwise we likely not make the playoffs with those momentum killing cross ice passes.
Larsson, wears the A, was one of the instrumental pieces for the Oilers a couple of years ago and will be again come playoff time. The Dallas game was just a glimpse of heavy playoff hockey to come.
Your Maple leafs and Dubas …haven’t heard from your bandwagon in a while. You told us how exciting that team is and that’s how a team should be constructed. Your leafs will not win anything currently because of team chemistry and roster makeup is far from ideal.

Bulging Twine

N64: Why would he say that? CBA expiresafter the 2021–22 season.

Is that something he said long ago?. The date to terminate early has passed.

hmm don’t know. He said it yesterday.

N64

Something got lost in translation or he garbled what he meant. Unless we’ve all missed something it won’t be and he’d know that.

Bulging Twine

Did it get extended? As in was there a date that it could have expired and was extended?
Was there something about an opt out?

Bulging Twine

wikipedia for what that’s worth is saying either side could have opted out in september of ’19 which would have ended the current cba spetember of 2020

N64

Both sides passed on the opt out. Friedman reported on all of that at the time.

Gerta Rauss

It’s probably because 3/4/5 years ago agents/players had next year circled on their calendars as a potential lockout year, and attempted to structure contracts to reflect that ie: signing bonuses in contracts that were to be paid out irrespective of a lock out.

Lockout didn’t happen/isn’t going to happen so there is a bit of an irregularly in the committed salaries

Gerta Rauss

And from the owners side, 3/4/5 years ago some GMs may have balked at contracts that extended past next year, again, thinking there may be a lockout so why commit dollars/contracts past that date.

Again, no lockout, so there may be less contracts/dollars committed past next year, and ‘less dollars in the system”

Bulging Twine

sounds ’bout right

leadfarmer

Dubnyk has not been good and understandibly so
But Fiala has become a pisscutter in the last 6 weeks

Bulging Twine

Friedman

“next year could have been a lockout/strike year Sid, so there’s not as much cash in the system. As a matter of fact I’ve heard that, you know, the owners are thinking that unless things change, they may have to give escrow money to the players next year because its an unusual year because of the potential and the way contracts were structured because of a potential work stoppage. So i think if there is ever a year the players are going to say okay we are going to bump it up by the full 5% or close to it, it’s going to be for next season.”

N64

Got it now.

Litke 94

For the second time this week, I have woken up, checked the Score app, and been mindblown that Vancouver has blown yet another 3rd period lead.

When I seen Toffoli score the 2-1 goal in the 3rd, I figured there was exactly ZERO chance the Coyotes would come back. Not only did they come back, but they win in regulation.

Man, I almost feel sorry for Vancouver fans and their goalie woes. Almost.

Beat It Square
ArmchairGM

Woogie63:
Looking for wingers?

Player/position/ranking their league scoring table/points

Strome RW 34, 59 points
Hopkins LW, 38, 58 points
Puljarjarvi RW, 3, 52 points
Sleoyshev RW/LW, 12, 45 points
Eberle RW, 141, 38 points
Kassian RW, 195, 31 points

Why couldn’t TMac unlock these guys

Puljujarvi is 1st in his league. He’s tied with Suomi but has a game in hand.

Durag

Coiler:
Traded Larsson to Toronto?? Say it ain’t so LT. Say it ain’t so.

I’m much more upset that Sleppy wasn’t gifted a spot on the 1st line

OriginalPouzar

No matter what happens tonight, this will be a wildly successful road trip with big wins in Winnipeg and Dallas.

This is yet another 3rd game in 4 nights in different arenas and 4th in 6th. Its also the 7th game of a road trip – ya, they played one game at home but its their seventh straight game in a different arena.

Going to have to gut it out, that’s for sure.

I assume Tippett goes back to Smith even with Mikko being as lights out as he was on Thursday – he’ll see the net on Saturday I would gather. Who knows though?

Do we get our best d-man in Klefbom back tonight? If so, who comes out Russell or Benning?

Leroy Draisdale

Mikko did face a lot of rubber in Dallas. I’d be alright with Smith tonight and Mikko Saturday

ArmchairGM

leadfarmer:
Adam Larsson for Johnsson is a maple Leafs hfboard like trade proposal
There is no way I would do that trade

Same. Incredibly, lots of Leafs fans wouldn’t either, they think Edmonton should throw in a sweetener. I guess they’re oblivious to the fact that everyone knows Dubas is desperate for a top-4, RHS, defensive defenseman.

OriginalPouzar

Lets gut out strong performance on tired legs tonight and steal at least a point – that would be amazing.

Looking ahead, the schedule for March is game heavy but not travel heavy.

After tonight, the Oilers only leave Alberta for 3 more games – a 5 day eastern trip to WSH, PHI, OTT – other than that, they are in Alberta and generally sleeping in their own beds without travel.

Game heavy but little travel – they are in a good spot and they should be able to rest a bit in March while still playing a ton of games and maybe even get some practice in.

A point or two tonight would be some great gravy!

ArmchairGM

Woodguy v2.0:
WC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Central
STL23
COL22
DAL16

Subparific
VGP14
EDM13
CGY9

Wildcard
VAN8
MIN7

Ooot of playoffs
NSH6
WPG6
ARI6
CHI2
SJS-4
ANA-5
LAK-10

-While CGY is 6th in the WC by points percentage, they are 11th in regulation wins.Pretenders.

Relevant games tonight:

EDM (-105) at CHI (-115) – EDM has value here.

DAL (-110) at NSH (-110) – I’m avoiding this game.DAL is way better but the first game back after the tornado tragedy is likely to be filled with emotion.

MIN (-120)at SJS (+100) – SJS has value.Won 3 in a row, Horseteeth is back and there’s a story that they had a meeting and decided to stop feeling sorry for themselves and play.

Lastly Doobie is expected to start for MIN.He’s been the worst goalie via Goals Save Above Expected this season.I can’t imagine trying to play professional sports with a young family when your wife is fighting for her life

Interesting to see the teams sorting themselves into distinct tiers:

Tier 1
STL 23
COL 22

Tier 2
DAL 16
VGP 14
EDM 13

Tier 3
CGY 9
VAN 8
MIN 7
NSH 6
WPG 6
ARI 6

Tier 4
CHI 2
SJS -4
ANA -5

Tier 5
LAK -10

Woodguy v2.0

Bulging Twine:
Friedman said on Tim and Sid that as next season was a potential lockout year there is less money in the system due to the way contracts were structured therefore escrow may be less of an issue next season, even possibly going the other way, as in the owners being in escrow and so if there were any year that the players would use the full 5% inflator it may be next year.

Good info, thanks.

Lebrun has a piece in The Athletic with some good info from the other side of the argument :

https://theathletic.com/1654295/2020/03/04/lebrun-cap-projects-to-rise-displeasure-with-bye-weeks-and-coronavirus-update/?source=dailyemail

All of this is from an agent:

“This is reminiscent of last year’s GMs meeting where we heard predictions of a significant bump in the cap, only to see it rise by only $2 million,” the agent said. “It appears that HRR (hockey-related revenues) growth will be between two to three percent. Where is the significant bump in HRR justifying a corresponding increase in the upper limit? It’s not there. It looks like the league is using the five percent escalator in these projections. For the last two seasons, the NHLPA only invoked the escalator to approx 1.3 percent. We’ll most likely see an upper limit for next season around $83.5 million.”

I think its prudent to use $84MM next year.

If assume that 88.2MM has the full 5% escalator then no escalator is $84.

If the PA has been averaging 1.3% in escalator then its $85.1

Given the PA’s desire to get escrow close to 0% and their use of only 1.3% on average over the last 2 years $84 is probably close and prudent. If its $85MM then its a bonus.

Not sure exactly how the lack of money in the system would impact this, will dig into that too.

Also,

The fight inside the PA on the inflator and escrow is established players on long term contract wanting escrow close to 0% so they maximize their earnings on their current contract vs younger players and players entering FA who want a higher cap number for themselves.

The vets on contracts usually win these types of fights so I think the PA will be very conservative in using the escalator.

Rondo
Rondo
ArmchairGM

Woodguy v2.0:
EC standings using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500

Atlantic
BOS29
TBY21
TOR11

Metropolitan
WSH20
PHI19
PIT17

Wildcard
NYI13
CAR11

Out of playoffs
CBJ11
NYI8
FLA7
MTL3
BUF0
NJD-2
OTT-9
DET-33

-CAR has play 4(!) less games than CBJ

Relevant wildcard games today:

BOS (-160) at FLA (+140) – Genuis Tallon’s team is spinning down the drain.

WSH (-140) at NYR (+120) – WSH is still struggling.Rags PDO coming down to earth.WSH played last night.Rags might be worth a unit.

CAR (+115)at PHI (-135) – CAR has lost 3 in a row. No team can afford lose Hamilton and Pesce.PHI won last night and JVR broke his hand. Still like PHI.

NYI (-150) at OTT (+130) – No value here at all imo

TOR (-175) at LAK (+155) – If Petersen starts LAK is worth a unit.Best GSAx in the league since Jan 1.If Quick starts there is no value here.

EC Tiers:

Tier 1
BOS 29
TBY 21
WSH 20
PHI 19
PIT 17

Tier 2
NYI 13
CAR 11
TOR 11
CBJ 11
NYI 8

Tier 3
FLA 7

Tier 4
MTL 3
BUF 0
NJD -2

Tier 5
OTT -9

Tier 6
DET -33

N64

NYI in wrong tier

Adam Wu

Based on the numbers, BOS should be standing alone in Tier 0….

Woodguy v2.0

N64: It’s only the subpar-ific division because its greatness is currently buried in Utica

VAN only called up 22 year old Briesbois and 23 year old Chatfield above soon to be 25 year old Brogarian The Rafferton is to keep him off other team’s radars.

Classic hoodwink gambit.

Benning is playing 7 dimensional Parcheesi

N64

One more year in Utica and ‘Parchesi Grand Master will sneak him past Seattle. Unless the Kraken hire noted hockey advisor DSF

OilClog

?????

northof51

OriginalPouzar,

One quibble – the W against Winnipeg was in Edmonton 🙂

Pretendergast

“Its also the 7th game of a road trip – ya, they played one game at home but its their seventh straight game in a different arena.”

Did you stop at trip.

northof51

I was gone for a while and missed how to reply below someone else’s comment. Any instruction for a rube like me?

Halfwise

Once you log in you will see some options under any given comment.

The options in parentheses, i.e. (Quote) and (Reply) drop you to the bottom of the thread.

Below those options is the single word Reply in a smaller font. That’s what gets this position of comment. It comes with a handy “cancel reply” feature above and to the right.

northof51

Sneaky… Thanks very much!

Halfwise

You’re welcome. And don’t call me Sneaky… 🙂

godot10

Lowetide going “Maplethorpe” with the blog header picture. Wonder what that “sign” means?

N64

ArmchairGM: Tier 2
DAL 16
VGP 14
EDM 13

Like that. I’m a tier 2 fan

PennersPancakes

Gold Jerry, gold.

GordieHoweHatTrick

Bulging Twine: It’s interesting that rebuilding teams Anaheim and LA hired Eakins and McLellan which have question marks regarding their ability to bring along and maximize young players.

Happy to see those teams repeat our failures

Woodguy v2.0

Bulging Twine: hmm don’t know.He said it yesterday.

Many agents structured contracts to be mostly bonus and little salary in 20/21 or front loaded contracts so they would tail in 20/21 to protect the player against not getting salary in 20/21 if there were a lock out.

That’s why there’s “less $ in the system”

An example is Lucic’s actual salary next year is $1MM, rest is bonus.

russ99

Really excited to head to the United Center, hopefully a better game the one in October, and we could put the Hawks playoff chances to bed, aka bragging rights at work. Lol

Will be really interested to see the rookie blue and deadline acquisitions in person, there’s only so much you see on TV.

We might get Subban in goal for the Hawks tonight, i saw on the local news that Crawford got hurt the last game but stayed in.

Wearing my orange alternate Russell jersey tonight, probably the last time I’ll see him play as an Oiler, would be smart to move him in August after his bonus pays out, limiting salary for the acquiring team, even with the same cap hit.

Go Oilers!

Derek

I’ve always found your devotion to Kris Russel a bit odd but I hope he plays tonight and he plays well just for you.

Afterwards you must switch to the dark side of strong passing defensemen with somewhat questionable d zone coverage.

Leroy Draisdale

Awesome! Enjoy the game and give us your thoughts!

OriginalPouzar

I’m all for switching Archie and Kass.

It seems whenever Archie is moved up to 1RW, he scores in his first game looks like he fits but the chemistry and effectiveness of the line dwindles over the next few games. Make sense as Archie really is a bottom 6 player.

Kass isn’t the typical 1RW but, he’s shown to have success there in longer stretches than most others and, frankly, its time for Tippett to let him out of the dog-house – he’s played well that last few games.

Archie in the bottom six makes Archie himself and the bottom 6 better.

——————————–

I would like to see Rusty healthy scratched if Klef is back even though Rusty has been great on the PK – Klefbom could essentially take Rusty’s PK minutes. Jones deserves to be an every day player at this stage.

With that said, given Benning barely getting 10 minutes per game recently, if that, I think the coaches, even though they are remiss to mess up leftie/rightie, will go with a Jones/Rusty or Rusty/Jones third pairing.

On that note, as much as this team needs Klef back and I can’t wait to see it, even if he’s pretty much good to go, I think, given the two wins, they could give him a couple more days and wait until the weekend?