James Neal. Joakim Nygard. Tracers.

James Neal had an interesting season. He had a four-goal game against the New York Islanders after scoring two against the Los Angeles Kings at the beginning of the year. He followed those two games with another goal against New Jersey on October 10, another against Chicago on October 14 and yet another against Detroit on October 18. Through eight games, Neal had nine goals. Incredible.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
  • Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Murat Ates: ‘It hits you so hard’: Health crisis puts vital Oilers-Jets game in perspective
  • Jonathan Willis: Mikko Koskinen vs. Mike Smith: Who starts Game 1 for the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has found a home as a winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers observations: Mikko Koskinen comes through in offensive power outage
  • Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
  • Jonathan Willis: Rookie pros Dmitri Samorukov, Kirill Maksimov learning in Oilers’ system
  • Lowetide: Oscar Klefbom’s return and usage a key element for Oilers stretch run
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How ‘little firecracker’ Josh Archibald went from unknown to vital with Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
  • Lowetide: Reasonable expectations for Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Ennis over the next 15 games.
  • Jonathan Willis: Ryan McLeod offers the Oilers size and speed. But will he score in the NHL?
  • Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
  • Lowetide: How the Oilers deadline deals might alter summer plans
  • Jonathan Willis: Splitting Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl saved the Oilers’ season
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2017 draft and the value of waiting five years

James Neal

In the first month of the year, James Neal scored eight power-play goals in less than 49 minutes (via NST). He would score four more PP goals in the following 109 minutes. In October, Neal averaged about 3.5 minutes on the power play; from November to the suspension of play, he averaged a little over 2.5 minutes with the man advantage. For the season, he ranks No. 2 in goals per 60 on the power play with 4.55 goals per 60 (Evander Kane) among forwards who have played 100 or more minutes. That’s an outstanding number.

Neal’s five on five performance over the last two seasons has been well documented. He’s eroding. However, in 296 five on five minutes with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, he scored four goals (.81 goals per 60) and a Corsi of 51.8 percent. That goal rate (.81 per 60) would rank him No. 112 among NHL forwards who played 400+ minutes at five on five this season. That’s at the top end of the average second line forward in today’s NHL. Is that a role Neal can play next season?

Joakim Nygard

On February 11, about one month ago, the Oilers signed winger Joakim Nyard to a one-year extension. The fast train has endured a couple of injuries in his first NHL season and the goals (three) haven’t come easy.

It’s fairly obvious there’s a player here. Nygard’s 1.27 points-per-60 at five on five is shy, but his shooting percentage (2.7) is bound to improve. He owns a 50 percent shot differential at five on five, and a 50.9 DFF percentage against elites. My guess is he’ll be one of the four left-wingers (Nuge, Ennis, Athanasiou, Nygard?) next fall. Note: I think Khaira will be on the team in the fall, as a center.

THROUGH THE PAST, DARKLY

2009 summer “MacT in a Box” post: This coach has shown a very specific and obvious tendency towards defense even in regard to rookie forwards. Fernando Pisani is a guy that may have been passed over (or taken longer to arrive) based on draft pedigree and both the 06-07 and 07-08 teams have had some young players hitting below the Mendoza line and still getting their at-bats. MacT loves forwards who can play solid postional games, and even when discussing kids like Gagner and Nilsson will make a point to mention that they have to ensure the offense they’re generating isn’t exceeded by what they’re giving up. A kid like Gagner is going to benefit heavily from this kind of coach, in a way someone like Rick Nash is only now getting around to in his career. Note from 2020: MacT would not coach Gagner in 2009-10.

1983 Fall TC

“Sammy Pollock used to say all jobs are open in Montreal but who was he kidding? Nobody was going to take Larry Robinson’s job or Guy Lafleur’s. In our camp I refuse to tell the players that. But I’d love it if somebody took a job away from a returning player. If that happened, that would make our team stronger.” Glen Sather, fall 1983

Tomorrow, I’ll have a prospects item for you at The Athletic and we’ll chat about the 50-man here. I don’t like to brag (seriously, I hate it) but this is kind of my wheel house. As a Dad, I was expert at keeping my kids amused during long, boring road trips. I hope you’re not offended by my comparing you to children. Unrelated: Who is up for a sing-a-long?

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279 Responses to "James Neal. Joakim Nygard. Tracers."

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  1. v4ance says:

    Sean Tierney @ChartingHockey

    I’ve received some requests to run this again but using pts% as the NHL will/might if they move straight into the post-season.

    BOS > NYI (4-0)
    TBL > TOR (4-0)
    WSH > CAR (4-3, CAR should’ve had it)
    PIT > PHI (4-0)

    STL > CGY (4-1)
    COL > DAL (4-0)
    NSH > VGK (4-1)
    EDM > VAN (4-2)

    Round 2!

    TBL > BOS (4-2, comeback from down 2-0)
    PIT > WSH (4-1)

    STL > COL (4-0 sweep, wowzers)
    EDM > NSH (4-0 sweep too, wow)

    Round 3!

    TBL > PIT (4-1 as PIT squanders game 1 win)
    EDM > STL (4-1 as EDM’s high-end offense hits throughout and STL’s offense falters)

    **this is the same Final matchup from the first sim (see earlier thread)***

    Cup Final!

    EDM puts up a great fight and deserves to win it by a hair in the end.

    But TBL steals game 6 in EDM and wins on home ice in game 7.

    Congrats (again!) to the Bolts!

  2. N64 says:

    Munny:
    The economic consequences of this are likely to be so dire that slowing efforts will eventually be forsaken and the disease will be allowed to take its course until some sort of herd immunity is eventually achieved either through exposure or vaccination.

    This may be what China has decided at this point.

    From what WG described the end game is selectively restoring commerce. Even step provides feedback a few weeks later and you take as many steps as you can until you have a vaccine. After Wuhan it had to be all in. But on the far side it’s not about wide open or all closed. Heading for the wall you have to overreact because the past 2 weeks and next 2 weeks are hidden from you in different ways

  3. jp says:

    Wilde:
    I have season totals because season total’d

    Regular Condors forwards (GP) by iCF/GP / / iCFA/GP / / iCont/GP / / iCont%

    Gambardella (50) – 2.86 / / 2.96 / / 5.82 / / 43.60%

    Yamamoto (23) – 3.13 / / 3.65 / / 6.78 / / 37.40%

    Esposito (56) – 2.07 / / 1.89 / / 3.96 / / 32.52%

    Stukel (35) – 2.46 / / 0.69 / / 3.14 / / 35.19%

    Maksimov (53) – 2.40 / / 1.64 / / 4.04 / / 38.40%

    Peluso (37) – 1.54 / / 1.62 / / 3.16 / / 33.10%

    Koules (32) – 1.94 / / 1.14 / / 3.00 / / 28.22%

    Benson (47) – 2.70 / / 3.13 / / 5.83 / / 41.39%

    Malone (49) – 1.90 / / 2.43 / / 4.33 / / 33.18%

    Currie (56) – 4.61 / / 1.89 / / 6.50 / / 45.25%

    Marody (30) – 2.13 / / 2.93 / / 5.07 / / 34.19%

    Hebig (31) – 1.71 / / 0.81 / / 2.52 / / 31.99%

    Cave (44) – 3.09 / / 2.39 / / 5.48 / / 36.42%

    McLeod (56) – 1.59 / / 2.21 / / 3.80 / / 35.98%

    Granlund (20) – 2.50 / / 2.05 / / 4.55 / / 35.03%

    e: should do definitions

    iCF = individual shot attempt
    iCFA = individual shot attempt primary assist
    iCont = individual shot contributions (sum of the above two)
    iCont% = share of the team’s shot attempts-for the player was on the ice for that they released or had the primary assist on

    Yamamoto tops at 6.78. But only 37.4% individual contributions.

    Does that mean he’s creating for everyone when he’s out there (but not getting credit for much of it)? Or just part of the noise? Either way his on ice metrics must be massive, no?

  4. N64 says:

    So in the 2nd sim the D pushed someone into the better goalie?

  5. Munny says:

    I had no idea hotels were closing. I’m guessing this is for economic reasons more than hygienic?

  6. Munny says:

    Agreed.

    But I also think that’s pretty much a best-case scenario.

    At some point the economic consequences will outweigh and affect far more people than the virus.

    We may see capitulation by the governments at some future point in time.

    They’re making the right choice right now… slow progress of the disease as best they can. But it is not a long-term solution that is in the best interests of the most people..

  7. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Folks: this season is over. There won’t be a playoffs.

    – I manage money for a living, for some of the weathliest familes in Canada, as well as little people like me and my family and regular folk.

    – I’ve got nothing to add about hockey, it’s done untill next year, as is all professional sport. The potential liabiltity is too great, especially in the US. They come back early and little Jonny gets coronavirus at a sporting event, leagues are bankrupt from litigation.

    – I just flew back from Miami today: it felt like the clips we saw from Baghdad Airport, pre-bombing: everyone just trying to get out.

    – But I’ve been thinking about cutting and pasting some of the comments I send to clients about what they ought to do with their finances and the market. Would this be of interest?

    – Funny joke I heard: Dr: ” Well we just ran your test and you tested positive for the Covid-19 virus” Patient: “But that’s impossible, I just bought 300 rolls of toilet paper”

    – Buckle up, be conservative, reduce expenses: this won’t be an easy out. Don’t “play” the market, unless it’s long-term money that you don’t need for a long time. Once this is over, we are in unprecented cheap money, cheap oil, crazy stimulus that we don’t know what that means when behaviour of companies, goverments and individuals return to normal

  8. Munny says:

    Gret99zky: The Alberta Government is not doing enough.
    This wait and see approach is not preventative.

    Well to be fair (and this might just be about word choice), there is nothing “preventative” about any country’s measures other than the search for a vaccine.

    This is about slowing the progress of the disease. You cannot prevent infection in the medium to long term.

    Oh. Unless you meant “preventing” health care systems from being overwhelmed, in which case you’re right and we’re in agreement.

  9. N64 says:

    Munny:
    I feel like the AB Gov’t erred on the side of the economy and not public health yesterday.Trying to do the minimum possible to contain the spread.

    One thing that was different yesterday is that they updated on non health matters like help promised and requested from Ottawa. Which meant we had to wade through biz before hearing what we needed to hear yesterday.

    There were 3 key decisions since Thursday. The meeting size decision was included in the initial transcript of the Dr’s speech. That transcript did not include the requirement to isolate every arrival from out of country. Discussion with BC goes on with all of these decisions and both announced both measures Thursday. Ottawa announced same Friday but Canadian customs still was not telling arrivals last night. NZ has now announced the same iso policy describing it as toughest in world. If anyone has an outright travel ban for the whole world they can argue that that is better. But Global’s iso is way better than bans from only some countries . The 3rd major decision was left over from Thursday. They worked Friday with universities to de exempt them from the gathering size rules.. no announcement there from Dr Hinshaw Friday or today. Universities announce 100% online.

    Sorry for all of that detail. But that’s where they were leading the last few days . Now onto the interesting part. I could guess perhaps, but aside from the finance stuff being in a different press’s conference what are you keen to see as immediate next steps?

  10. N64 says:

    Respectfully disagree. Short and Long term interests converge on one point. Flatten the curve. Best case is the new pre-vaccine normal that we relax to over a few months keeps cases to under a hundred per week. If not has to be way closer to zero than to hospitals being broken. #becauseexponentials. But that’s not a trade off you can even see how to make before the far side.

  11. Pouzar says:

    I know the majority of posters here are left of Stalin but seriously not a single post on the ineptitude of our Prime Minister? One idiot poster in fact wishing Trump tested positive? Assholes.

  12. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: Op, I honestly don’t understand what negotiation has to do with this. For Bonuses sure they cab negotiation with the PA and perhaps pro rata as before.

    But this is purely about trades registered between teams. The only negotiation is governors trying to get almost all of the governors to make registered agreements more “fair.” Any examples of that after other short seasons?

    A performance bonus vests upon a condition or conditions being met.

    A subject of a trade condition of a trade vests upon a condition or conditions being met.

    In both cases the condition or conditions that need to vest were negotiated based on a league schedule of 82 games which is highly unlikely to occur this year.

    They very well may not pro rate but I don’t think its cut and dry.

  13. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pouzar:
    I know the majority of posters hereare left of Stalin but seriously not a singlepost on the ineptitude of our Prime Minister? One idiotposter in fact wishing Trump tested positive? Assholes.

    – This will be interesting this blog. LT’s long-time take is this is a hockey blog: politics non. Whiskey yes. Jokes yes. I dont want to wade into politics. Nor do I want to be sharing finance stuff if not allowed. But this is a community that we are all invested in.

    – Trump was the elected president of the most powerful nation in the world. HIs judgement will come at the next election.

  14. N64 says:

    Lots of shots taken at both leaders the last few days often by the same peoole with not much defence of either. Iso for both is a great idea

  15. Pouzar says:

    On this blog?

  16. JimmyV1965 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Folks: this season is over.There won’t be a playoffs.

    – I manage money for a living, for some of the weathliest familes in Canada, as well as little people like me and my family and regular folk.

    – I’ve got nothing to add about hockey, it’s done untill next year, as is all professional sport.The potential liabiltity is too great, especially in the US.They come back early and little Jonny gets coronavirus at a sporting event, leagues are bankrupt from litigation.

    – I just flew back from Miami today: it felt like the clips we saw from Baghdad Airport, pre-bombing: everyone just trying to get out.

    – But I’ve been thinking about cutting and pasting some of the comments I send to clients about what they ought to do with their finances and the market.Would this be of interest?

    – Funny joke I heard: Dr: ” Well we just ran your test and you tested positive for the Covid-19 virus” Patient: “But that’s impossible, I just bought 300 rolls of toilet paper”

    – Buckle up, be conservative, reduce expenses: this won’t be an easy out. Don’t “play” the market, unless it’s long-term money that you don’t need for a long time.Once this is over, we are in unprecented cheap money, cheap oil, crazy stimulus that we don’t know what that means when behaviour of companies, goverments and individuals return to normal

    Are you sure someone who voluntarily attends a sporting event, knowing what we know now, can sue the event organizers for contracting the Coronavirus? I’m sure there would be explicit warnings every step of the way. Maybe OP can shed some light.

  17. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pouzar:
    I know the majority of posters hereare left of Stalin but seriously not a singlepost on the ineptitude of our Prime Minister? One idiotposter in fact wishing Trump tested positive? Assholes.

    I think Trudeau is completely ill equipped to run a country. He’s a trust fund baby, drama teacher who has been gift wrapped virtually every achievement in his life. Yet I can’t really find fault in his actions. Just like I can’t find fault with Trump, who I dislike almost as much. Both seem to be listening to people much more knowledgeable than themselves.

  18. N64 says:

    Vesting is a good way to describe the bonuses. Now the CBA described an appeals process and the parties may choose to negotiate instead. As you describe their is some precedence fin the CBA re the partial season

    But you parallel breaks down. You didn’t get sufficient oppty to trigger a registered condition. Fine take that up with the BOG and carry almost all of them. The executive is not going to wade on to remediate between teams. The figure everything should be reibtpreted bog does that. And Gary likes that sort of thing zero

    Can’t prove what they will do. But seriously the parallel you are framing is very weak. Show probable cause. Show they’ve stepped away from trades as registered year later. Even in a shortened season

  19. godot10 says:

    N64:

    Sorry for all of that detail. But that’s where they were leading the last few days . Now onto the interesting part. I could guess perhaps, but aside from the finance stuff being in a different press’s conference what are you keen to see as immediate next steps?

    What are your thoughts on daycares and K-12 schools? Once you close them, they will be closed for the duration. With the proper rules, and data collection, I would argue Health Services might be able to get valuable information about the state of neighborhoods if schools and daycares are open.

    i.e. If a child has flu-like symptoms, they can’t go to school. If they start having flu-like symptoms at school, they have to go home. If someone in the home has flu-like symptoms, they can’t go to school. Ditto for daycares. If one were to track that data, and look at anomalies and outliers, one would think that would be useful information for Public Health officials.

    i.e. you can have on-going education about what children need to know.

    Singapore has kept schools open. Taiwan has closed them. Both have been more successful than most other countries.

  20. N64 says:

    Yes. You’ve been lurking here the last few days? Btw always good to see you wade in. Harm to either is in poor taste. Would much rather see Freeland and Pence making the decisions with the approval of JT and DT

  21. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    JimmyV1965: Are you sure someone who voluntarily attends a sporting event, knowing what we know now, can sue the event organizers for contracting the Coronavirus? I’m sure there would be explicit warnings every step of the way. Maybe OP can shed some light.

    – I spend a lot of time in the US. I had dinner on Friday with a bunch of really smart Americans. They gave me a “a ha” tidbit. It is a litigious society. They have to do everything to prevent potential liability. As much as health concerns matter in this environment, the US is unique, in that the people can sue the goverment. It’s another layer of complexity for doing what is right to protect their people

    – They sue when a foul ball hits a fan, or when the coffee that is too hot spills. Or a shooting at a school: everyone gets sued in the US. You can’t waiver liability by saying: “come to the games, sign this waiver” The rest of the world doesn’t have this problem. We need to understand this.

    – Professional sport with fans isn’t coming back for a long time: public safety as well as this backdrop isn’t appreciated. It’s the same for the whole economy in the US.

    – No one is going to sue Canada or other nations trying to contain this, for whatever mistakes are made in hingsight. But Jet Blue will get sued for not having the measures in place when sick passenger was allowed to board plane.

  22. Munny says:

    N64: One thing that was different yesterday is that they updated on non health matters like help promised and requested from Ottawa. Which meant we had to wade through biz before hearing what we needed to hear yesterday.

    There were 3 key decisions since Thursday. The meeting size decision was included in the initial transcript of the Dr’s speech. That transcript did not include the requirement to isolate every arrival from out of country. Discussion with BC goes on with all of these decisions and both announced both measures Thursday. Ottawa announced same Friday but Canadian customs still was not telling arrivals last night. NZ has now announced the same iso policy describing it as toughest in world. If anyone has an outright travel ban for the whole world they can argue that that is better. But Global’s iso is way better than bans fromonly some countries . The 3rd major decision was left over from Thursday. They worked Friday with universities to de exempt them from the gathering size rules.. no announcement there from Dr Hinshaw Friday or today. Universities announce 100% online.

    Sorry for all of that detail. But that’s where they were leading the last few days . Now onto the interesting part. I could guess perhaps, but aside from the finance stuff being in a different press’s conference what are you keen to see as immediate next steps?

    1. Access to the Heritage Trust Fund for emergency funding of health care, covering of taxation losses, one-time bonuses given to low income earners. Sadly much of this fund is tied up in illiquid investments, but do the best we can with what we have. If this isn’t the rainy day we were saving for, what the hell will be?

    2. Closure of pubs, bars, clubs and restaurants, except for drive-thrus and Skip the Dishes with more stringent hygiene regulation for those services (including delivery)

    3. Closure of mass transit, or perhaps the implementation of a massive ongoing sanitation program with capacity limits on conveyances.

    4. Closure of schools etc. My understanding from my contacts in the schooling sector is that this is likely coming but will be coordinated with Spring Break which is a couple of weeks away. Not sure waiting is a good idea.

    Quiet contingency plans to convert schools into emergency medical facilities.

    5. Implementation of drive through testing ASAP.

    6. Mandatory 24 hour cycling of Oiler Cup-winning playoff seasons, alternating with Bobby Orr’s greatest games shown nationally… okay fine, regionally. Have no idea what SN Pacific would show, so they might as well show Oiler games too.

    This is pretty extemporaneous (except for 2 and 4) so don’t beat me up too badly.

  23. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64:
    Vesting is a good way to describe the bonuses. Now the CBA described an appeals process and the parties may choose to negotiate instead. As you describe their is some precedence fin the CBA re the partial season

    But you parallel breaks down. You didn’t get sufficient oppty to trigger a registered condition. Fine take that up with the BOG and carry almost all of them. The executive is not going to wade on to remediate between teams. The figure everything should be reibtpreted bog does that. And Gary likes that sort of thing zero

    Can’t prove what they will do. But seriously the parallel you are framing is very weak. Show probable cause. Show they’ve stepped away from trades as registeredyear later.Even in a shortened season

    Your points are fair however show me the time in the last 100 years where a season was stopped due to a global health crisis?

    There is no precedent in the modern era for how these items will be dealt with.

  24. Pouzar says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Thx for the reply. I rarely comment anymore but felt compelled here. Back to full time lurker status.

  25. Munny says:

    Is it strange coincidence that today HBO is deciding to play all 5 Chernobyl episodes back-to-back?

    #extraordinarymeasures

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Are you sure someone who voluntarily attends a sporting event, knowing what we know now, can sue the event organizers for contracting the Coronavirus? I’m sure there would be explicit warnings every step of the way. Maybe OP can shed some light.

    Although that wouldn’t be my area of expertise in any event, I won’t be providing any sort of light on anything really – my first has been retained by the Federal Government (we act for them routinely) and I’ve been on conference calls for much of the evening on finance matters and structuring government support on various levels.

    I’m going to stick to strictly Oilers and hockey.

  27. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pouzar,

    – Miss you Pouzar….

  28. Munny says:

    Pouzar:
    I know the majority of posters hereare left of Stalin but seriously not a singlepost on the ineptitude of our Prime Minister? One idiotposter in fact wishing Trump tested positive? Assholes.

    I don’t actually wish he had it, or at least not more than any other random government leader.

    I’m usually typified by others on here as being somewhere right of Adam Smith, so I’m not the Stalinist droid you’re looking for.

    Also, miss your posts and presence.

  29. N64 says:

    Why is precedent required? The remediation process for all registered trades is the BOG. Now if you want to argue that this is way more needing fairness than a strike shortened season fine. But that’s going to governor’s making that point and it does with only a few objections

    Remember that stupid 2nd round for non duty gm and coaches. When the guvs tossed that out half wanted it to retroactive. The others laughed.

  30. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: I think Trudeau is completely ill equipped to run a country. He’s a trust fund baby, drama teacher who has been gift wrapped virtually every achievement in his life. Yet I can’t really find fault in his actions. Just like I can’t find fault with Trump, who I dislike almost as much. Both seem to be listening to people much more knowledgeable than themselves.

    Who made the decision to let his spouse go to the UK? That is a big black mark on his so-called science-based advisors. There was a teeny tinge of “wokeness” in the federal government’s response before Sophie tested positive, particularly about travel and monitoring into and out of the country. And if one follows Twitter, they have been slow implementing the announcements of Thursday and Friday on travel, like they had done no preplanning and preparations for the decisions. And are making some of these decisions on the fly. i.e. Make the announcement for PR effect, and they start figuring out how to implement it.

    BC’s ability to test is becoming strained. How could the federal government allow that to happen? Why aren’t they paying attention. Particularly after boasting about how much better Canada had been doing in this area than the Americans. It is not that they don’t know that the American failure on testing has been the biggest failure down south.

  31. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: Although that wouldn’t be my area of expertise in any event, I won’t be providing any sort of light on anything really – my first has been retained by the Federal Government (we act for them routinely) and I’ve been on conference calls for much of the evening on finance matters and structuring government support on various levels.

    I’m going to stick to strictly Oilers and hockey.

    – Well that’s your perogative. But if you wanted to share perspetives that are not subject to non-disclosure, that would be a service IMO. Your at BLG aren’t you? I will look you up and send you an email at work to follow up, if you’d accept.

  32. unca miltie says:

    I agree, some difficult financial times for many, The hospitality industry first with retail and service right behind. unemployment rate will skyrocket and the government deficit with it. at this rate I may never retire.

  33. godot10 says:

    Munny: 1. Access to the Heritage Trust Fund for emergency funding of health care, covering of taxation losses, one-time bonuses given to low income earners.Sadly much of this fund is tied up in illiquid investments, but do the best we can with what we have.If this isn’t the rainy day we were saving for, what the hell will be?

    The federal government will do income support. It is their responsibility. Selling assets low from the Heritage Trust Fund is ill-advised when we are headed to ZIRP and NIRP and massive QE.

  34. Munny says:

    Fair enough but I think you are underestimating the economic destruction that has occurred and will occur.

    The economy is a living, breathing thing too. Do enough damage and it could be on life support for decades, possibly a century.

    (Technically the monetary system has been on life support since the damage of WWI, but we were able to paper over it and give humans at least a semblance of economic life, however unjust that life may seem to many—and it is unjust. We might not be able to paper over this one because of the economy’s pre-existing health condition).

  35. unca miltie says:

    as I posted on the website the other day, I was planning to go South based on the federal Government stance on air travel. it was the provinces and N64 that recommended not to go.

  36. N64 says:

    That open question I just threw Munny. Schools was the topic one I was most curious to hear from him about. Have been looking at this from your angle and the opposite. You mention 2 exemplary programs on each side of this. With their level of testing surveillance I think they can both justify. We’re earlier on the curve than the US with more per capita testing, but not where those two are.

    Our CMO says every day they are looking at where kids are vs where they will be. That decision gets easier every day I think as more parents shift home and they trace cases. I’m going to assume they really are evaluating as described and are ready to move for the right reasons at the right time. When they close the school year is over.

    If they don’t move before Spring Break every parent should probably think of Friday as potentially the exit from the school year

  37. N64 says:

    Thanks. Will reply here in a bit.

  38. N64 says:

    This week Alberta progressed from if you are over 65 do not go and avoid gatherings when you return to no one go and everyone iso when they return. BC moved lockstep with AB on that in same period. ON and QC also evolved over the week. On Friday am Ottawa finally jumped foward. Friday night folks were clearing Canada custom in Alberta with zero word from federal employees about the joint requirement for iso. just not serious.

  39. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10,

    g- what is your professional background? I appreciate your posts: Oiler and economy…

  40. Someone says:

    Just wanted to echo others in saying thanks to those of you for keeping us updated. Seems the powers that be are (somewhat understandably) slow in really communicating the serious threat that this thing poses.

    We may have dodged a bullet regarding covid-19. A friend of mine recently returned from a couple of months in Amsterdam. He was supposed to come over for a beer a few days ago but fell asleep on the couch. Being that I had been working 15 hour days the 5 days prior, I wasn’t online a whole lot and not really up to date. My grandparents (grandma is 83 with diabetes, grandpa is 82 with COPD and a pacemaker) and in laws (FIL is 73 and relatively healthy, MIL is 68 and diabetic) came over the following day, and today I learned my friend is now showing symptoms and awaiting testing. While we don’t know if buddy actually has it yet, we could have exposed 4 high risk people to it. We also have a 2 and 3 year old at home.

    Since reading through the links people are posting here as well as other news sources, it’s a little frightening to think about.

  41. N64 says:

    Interesting list. Anxious to move Munny is also maybe it’s too costy long term Munny, right.

    Let’s start at #6. Your priorities are warped. That should be #1. But alas that’s not a matter for Dr. Hinshaw and no one in AB is holding back that critical mental health measure.

    Your top priority is interesting. I was wondering aloud if your disappointment with Friday was related to the first half being about Finance not health. And then Finance is your item 1. Agree that income support for those who are going to lose income at home is critical. 10 premiers were in Ottawa for all of that this week and as we all know JT had to no show. The AB specific angle was immediate relief from the triple whammy not waiting another 6 months for the retroactive fixes. The easing needs to go to people and then they can help beat this by staying home and not having them drown and pulling the rest of the economy down with them. AB can’t print money (supreme court settled that long ago). So I think the urgency you expect there is pushing the feds and simultaneously figure out where to top up.

    2. Are bars and restaurants exempt from the 250 rule and and the remediation measure required between 50 and 250? Because they shouldn’t be. Italy locked down the whole country banned travels etc. and they simply required 1 meter separation… even for spouses. I think this area needs to be reviewed daily.

    3. The important thing is space. Agree with your two points after perhaps. Can’t confirm I’m hearing 2nd hand that full buses and trains suddenly are at fractional capacity. Maybe different at rush hour but maybe businesses that need on site staff still can switch up start and end times. As with #2 it’s about how transit provides the required separation and sanitation. Every other measure forward is going to thin out buses.

    4. See my reply to Godot. I was curious if the was your #1. You list #2 and 4 as not extemperaneous, so I was not far off. I think they really are sorting out the net impact of closing vs. keeping elementary open for daycare only (kind of like when buses aren’t running at -40 but a fraction of kids are in the bldge. vs staying open. Studying to avoid decisions is bad news. But that’s not what I see here. Universities were exempt from the large gathering policy, Thurday night universites announced a snow day while they worked with Healh on implementation. U of C ahnounced pure online Fri night. U of A Sat morning. I expect the same seriousness on high school and elementary.

    5. I’d break that one down. No tests in hospitals. Lots of ways to do that as you scale up testing capacity. Alberta stared with drive to your place while setting up assessment centres. Drive thru in Korea means you roll down the windows, they start the interview process, then you exit the car for the test. As testing ramps up that’s a great assembly line process. But it’s still an assessment centre.

    Serious stuff. They deserve no grade curve on any of this.

  42. Mr DeBakey says:

    Munny:
    MUNNYsays:
    March 14, 2020 at 10:25 pm
    Fair enough but I think you are underestimating the economic destruction that has occurred and will occur.

    The economy is a living, breathing thing too. Do enough damage and it could be on life support for decades, possibly a century.

    A different POV:

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/the-coronavirus-pandemic-probably-wont-have-a-huge-economic-impact/

  43. N64 says:

    The guidance about this nation and that and ages to go and when to isolate. It was Swiss Cheese and whatever they restricted wasn’t the most pressing danger. By the time Iran made the list Italy was overdue.

    The right thing is don’t leave the country and 2 weeks isolation when you return. Thank goodness provinces stopped waiting for our feds to throw out the patchwork.

    Best of luck with family through all of this.

  44. Mr DeBakey says:

    You know there’s nothing “left” about Stalin?
    Stalin was just a dictator – like Hitler, like those motherfucking mullahs in Iran, like some guy who has his troops goose-steppin’ around in banana-republicville, like DT’s boss Putin.

  45. N64 says:

    There are lowetidian themes in there. At the end of the Great this hit so hard and wiped out young (not old). And we’e not likely to lose even the same % overall. It changed people long term more than it changed the economy. And the stories that generation could tell. We did not hear them directly but we heard echos of them in other stories from children who grew up in the Great Depression.

    The multi-month forced hiatus to home (in many cases while working online) will be followed by a stripped back year waiting for vaccines and then who knows what stories we will all have to tell? Hopefully we’ll be able to laugh at the hardships and celebrate what our health care worker do with the time we can buy them.

    /glurge

  46. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Mr DeBakey: A different POV:

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/the-coronavirus-pandemic-probably-wont-have-a-huge-economic-impact/

    – Thanks for this: That was over 100 years ago. While we don’t know the medical and scientific difference between the Spanish Flu and this, without a doubt the access to informatiion and the intertwined economies of today vs, the end of the the 1st world war are not the same

    – Certainly the “stimulus” after the 1st world war in terms of spending and whenever this passes in terms of consumer, business and governmet cofidence post Covid-19 might be somewhat analagous, they are completly different… The Spanish flew was totally a minor issue vs. end of WW!, in terms of economic growth.

    – For sure there will be a massive rally in world’s economy post Covid-19, to be sure.

    * I don;t mean to highjack this thread, It’s just helpful for me. Over and out.

  47. N64 says:

    Let’s go with this one. Daily US Case Growth.

    March 1-8 75%, 36%, 49%, 31%, 58%, 44%, 40%, 41%
    March 9-14 29%, 45%, 29%, 33%, 36%, 29%

    Need to see those numbers hanging around 20% quickly.But hanging around 30% rather than 40% is a good sign. Maybe the mental shift after sports shutdown so quickly will help

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States

  48. v4ance says:

    Hotels aren’t totally shutting their doors but you can see the dominoes falling.

    There will be lots of travel restrictions and many people will be self isolating all around the world and within the country. I suspect within the week, the only people staying in Alberta hotels will be because they can’t go back to their home countries/provinces due to their own native travel bans. It’ll be like the Hotel California lyrics “You can check out any time you like, But you can never leave!'”

    To institute self isolation, the hotels will basically tell the majority of their hourly staff to just stay home for two weeks or more while they run operations with a skeleton crew of mostly managerial staff. If a hotel is lucky or unlucky (depending on your viewpoint) enough to have all their guests leave, they will shut down until travel bans are lifted and travellers and bookings return.

  49. Munny says:

    Sorry for the delayed reply… y’know life, the universe and everything. You will find my full reply to you in the main thread below.

    Once I figure it out, lol.

  50. Ribs says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – But I’ve been thinking about cutting and pasting some of the comments I send to clients about what they ought to do with their finances and the market. Would this be of interest?

    That would be great!

  51. Munny says:

    Despite the source, I will give this an honest read, bear with me.

  52. Munny says:

    Many of those assets are long term investments that originated many years ago and would not return a loss. Many of them are also USD denominated and as you know USD is only going to get stronger through this crisis.

    While income support is the Federal government’s responsibility it is very likely their efforts will fall short and the province needs to take care of its own. Not to mention NIRP and ZIRP do sweet fuck all for Joe and Joanie Paycheque.

    And if you re-read my comment, the first two facets are covering emergency medical funding and provincial operations that will be affected by the coming reduction in tax collections, neither of which is Federal (although they will likely throw the provinces some bones to help with Health).

  53. v4ance says:

    In both sims, the person doing the modelling forgot to include the 4 min high sticking penalty given to the Bolts in Game 6 as drawn by Yamamoto.

    We score 2 PP goals and steal the win in Game 6!

  54. v4ance says:

    Randy Renstrom @RandyRenstrom

    You know how everyone rushed to stores at the same time and bought out everything at once instead of staggering their visits?

    Now imagine that same thing in hospitals, but instead of toilet paper, it’s ICU beds and ventilators that are out. This is why everything is cancelled.

    So in this apt analogy, anyone who arrives at the store late doesn’t get any TP. Anyone arriving later to the ICU doesn’t get a bed or ventilator and dies.

  55. Munny says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – For sure there will be a massive rally in world’s economy post Covid-19, to be sure.

    On what basis do you assert this?

    I’d like to believe it, but it is not an assertion I can make with confidence.

  56. Munny says:

    So apt.

    I was saying to a client tonight that the best strategy likely would be to get infected right now

  57. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    Seconded!

  58. Munny says:

    N64:
    Interesting list. Anxious to move Munny is also maybe it’s too costy longterm Munny, right.

    (I moved this out of the nested feature to make it easier to reply to each point.)

    Yes. I think the short term path is much clearer. Medium and long term much more difficult. Let me ask you this… What is the exit strategy? How does it end? Because it can really only end with herd immunity… either through exposure or vaccination. Are we okay with relenting on the slowing measures at some point and a significant percentage of our elderly dying prematurely?

    I don’t know the public and political tolerance for either the mitigation measures or the deaths of familial p/matriarchs, but I do know the economy will not tolerate stringent mitigation long term.

    But let’s save medium and long term for another day… we need more info regardless. My guess though is that we will see waves of this disease with multiple peaks.

    Your top priority is interesting. I was wondering aloud if your disappointment with Friday was related to the first half being about Finance not health. And then Finance is your item 1. Agree that income support for those who are going to lose income at home is critical. 10 premiers were in Ottawa for all of that this week and as we all know JT had to no show. The AB specific angle was immediate relief from the triple whammy not waiting another 6 months for the retroactive fixes. The easing needs to go to people and then they can help beat this by staying home and not having them drown and pulling the rest of the economy down with them. AB can’t print money (supreme court settled that long ago). So I think the urgency you expect there is pushing the feds and simultaneously figure out where to top up.

    I have to admit N64, I was not ranking these on any basis, but rather spewing due to time pressures, and numbering only to keep the points separate.

    If I were to rank them, I would probably have testing as Numero Uno, but I think they are all important. Since the Heritage Trust Fund divestiture would require the most time, perhaps it should be first, but in the short term, it’s not as important as testing and beginning the process of mitigation.

    2. Are bars and restaurants exempt from the 250 rule and and the remediation measure required between 50 and 250? Because they shouldn’t be. Italy locked down the whole country banned travels etc. and they simply required 1 meter separation… even for spouses. I think this area needs to be reviewed daily.

    If we’re going to do economic damage, and most certainly we are, I don’t know why this measure wasn’t included up front other than to buy some economic time, mentally prepare owners and workers, and allow the Feds time to get their EI aid up and running. It should have been included in my view… but not with immediate closure (Friday), rather a delayed closure (Monday) to somewhat lessen the blow. It’s going to happen so why wait?

    I’m fortunate enough to have access to conversations with many young adults, different ones daily, and I have been informally polling them over the past few days, and I will tell you (and this probably comes as no surprise)—especially males under 30—that almost none of them give two fucks about this or social distancing or any of the mitigation measures other than their potential loss of income, which they typically resent.

    This is of course not representative of every male individual from that cohort that I have had conversations with, but certainly the overwhelming majority. From High School educated, to in University, to University graduate… regardless they usually feel the same way.

    Bars (not large city clubs obviously), typically run somewhere in the neighbourhood of 150-175 capacity so would be exempt from the regulation. Both bars in town of that size were absolutely bumping tonight. Capacity is set by provincial fire regulations, which is one person per square meter of front end footage. There is no way to enforce two metres, and is typically unpractical in any regard due to tables, dance floors etc.

    I’m good friends with the President of the local Lions Club, which runs the town Event Centre… When I see him next I will ask about Banquets, Weddings, private functions and the like. The local bowling alley held a large kid’s Birthday party tonight. When I walked in to check out the scene, they were crammed into the video area, about 40 kids in less than 40 square meters.

    3. The important thing is space. Agree with your two points after perhaps. Can’t confirm I’m hearing 2nd hand that full buses and trains suddenly are at fractional capacity. Maybe different at rush hour but maybe businesses that need on site staff still can switch up start and end times. As with #2 it’s about how transit provides the required separation and sanitation.Every other measure forward is going to thin out buses.

    Staggering start times is a great idea. Full closure of mass transit is a pretty hefty burden on low income cohorts. Running more buses would also help but that’s not exactly something that scales quickly and easily.

    I know the province has a low income program for taxicabs… they get a certain dollar value in chits per month the cab companies then redeem… perhaps that could be expanded?

    4. See my reply to Godot. I was curious if the was your #1. You list #2 and 4 as not extemperaneous, so I was not far off. I think they really are sorting out the net impact of closing vs. keeping elementary open for daycare only (kind of like when buses aren’t running at -40 but a fraction of kids are in the bldge. vs staying open. Studying to avoid decisions is bad news. But that’s not what I see here. Universities were exempt from the large gathering policy, Thurday night universites announced a snow day while they worked with Healh on implementation. U of C ahnounced pure online Fri night. U of A Sat morning. I expect the same seriousness on high school and elementary.

    Bars and schools were certainly the first 2 things that came to mind post-press conference. i knew already that all major post-secondary institutions were moving to online learning (a direction all post-secondary schooling is moving at any rate)… which likely meant that high schools would eventually follow suit.

    The problem is the 5-15 cohort… who are incredibly social, resist social restrictions, are awful at hygiene, and, if their parents must continue to work, often end up in the care of their grandparents. And again can’t easily double the number of school buses either., nor will staggering work here. Nightmare situation with no good solution.

    But if a kid from that age group is diagnosed Sunday, the schools will be done Monday. That’s how the world works. And we do have to consider the susceptibility of teachers and support staff, many of whom would be in the high risk groups.

    I think it would have been better to close the schools through to the coming Spring Break, as opposed to closing after. I understand Godot’s point (and Hinshaw’s) about the efficacy of doing so, but those countries that have been successful at mitigation without closing the schools have societies that are more unified, regimented, and have past experience with SARS and MERS,

    5. I’d break that one down. No tests in hospitals. Lots of ways to do that as you scale up testing capacity. Alberta started with drive to your place while setting up assessment centres. Drive thru in Korea means you roll down the windows, they start the interview process, then you exit the car for the test. As testing ramps up that’s a great assembly line process. But it’s still an assessment centre.

    I think we are in complete agreement with this one.

    Serious stuff. They deserve no grade curve on any of this.

    At least an incomplete at this point perhaps.

    One thing that has occurred to me since my OP is offering to those workers whose livelihoods are displaced by this crisis, especially young adults, an opportunity to provide support dealing with the crisis… whether it be in drive-thru testing, public sanitation, hospital support or whatever, and paying them as contract workers to the government. The pay would be better than anything EI could offer, and would alleviate boredom and restlessness among youth (which is a serious problem in any society with high youth unemployment). Training always takes time, so why not anticipate this need now?

  59. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: I think Trudeau is completely ill equipped to run a country. He’s a trust fund baby, drama teacher who has been gift wrapped virtually every achievement in his life. Yet I can’t really find fault in his actions. Just like I can’t find fault with Trump, who I dislike almost as much. Both seem to be listening to people much more knowledgeable than themselves.

    When JT first elected I was soon struck with how similar he and DT are. The difference is generational.

    3rd gen rich kids, repeated issues with plainly obvious personal and professional ethical decisions (rules don’t apply to me), hair strangeness, weak leaders and decision makers. Etc etc

  60. Wilde says:

    Think if this is gonna be a big one that it’ll be the last one with the USD hegemonic?

  61. hunter1909 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: When JT first elected I was soon struck with how similar he and DT are. The difference is generational.

    3rd gen rich kids, repeated issues with plainly obvious personal and professional ethical decisions (rules don’t apply to me), hair strangeness, weak leaders and decision makers. Etc etc

    Yes but one of them hates CNN the other one probably loves it.

    PS: With my construction background, it’s amazing to think anyone could build what Trump has managed to build in NYC. Slagging him off is supposed to be easier than that.

  62. hunter1909 says:

    Munny: I’m fortunate enough to have access to conversations with many young adults, different ones daily, and I have been informally polling them over the past few days, and I will tell you (and this probably comes as no surprise)—especially males under 30—that almost none of them give two fucks about this or social distancing or any of the mitigation measures other than their potential loss of income, which they typically resent.
    This is of course not representative of every male individual from that cohort that I have had conversations with, but certainly the overwhelming majority. From High School educated, to in University, to University graduate… regardless they usually feel the same way.
    Bars (not large city clubs obviously), typically run somewhere in the neighbourhood of 150-175 capacity so would be exempt from the regulation. Both bars in town of that size were absolutely bumping tonight. Capacity is set by provincial fire regulations, which is one person per square meter of front end footage. There is no way to enforce two metres, and is typically unpractical in any regard due to tables, dance floors etc.

    Just think if this thing targets baby boomers only; you seriously have to wonder what 20 year olds imagine being 35 is, let alone preparing for the grave lol

  63. Wilde says:

    jp: Yamamoto tops at 6.78. But only 37.4% individual contributions.

    Does that mean he’s creating for everyone when he’s out there (but not getting credit for much of it)? Or just part of the noise? Either way his on ice metrics must be massive, no?

    He’s the strongest on-ice differential generator, yeah. Contribution %, at least for me, within a certain range, is more about role than performance

  64. Munny says:

    Mr DeBakey: A different POV:

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/the-coronavirus-pandemic-probably-wont-have-a-huge-economic-impact/

    Okay, just read it…

    Firstly, that article is so light on analysis and detail it is little more than a drive-by shooting… and it misses its target. I mean really, the economic consequences of this crisis examined in something like 5 paragraphs?

    Secondly, his primary data point is GDP. There probably isn’t an economic statistic that is more flawed than GDP. Especially during wartime periods.

    Thirdly, we’re talking about a time when nearly all developed economies were heavily agrarian-based and far less people lived in cities. Not to mention household creation began much earlier and people had far more children. This is not that world. (That said there will be a coming baby boom out of this… y’know you lock people up long enough)

    Fourthly, highly integrated supply chains and the production of complex technologies can’t be simply re-sourced to “lightly hit areas” as the author suggests. You can’t build production facilities, re-integrate supply chains and train workers fast enough, especially when economic resources are tied up fighting the virus and keeping the populace from starving (and/or going nuts). And where will “lightly hit areas be” lol.

    Fifthly, he completely disregards the monetary and financial aspects of this crisis. WWI and the Spanish Flu resulted in the Great Depression and the rise of pedagogues like Hitler, Stalin and Mao… and another World War. Countries, Newfoundland for eg, lost their sovereignty because of the events of that time period. But he’s okay with all that… those effects weren’t HUGE?

    Sorry, but that article was pretty weak-ass and totally unconvincing.

  65. OriginalPouzar says:

    SHL cancels its season/playoffs.

    I wonder if this means that Holland can now get Berglund under contract for next season.

    Is Broberg’s SHL career done? I anticipate he stays for one more year.

  66. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    When JT first elected I was soon struck with how similar he and DT are. The difference is generational.
    3rd gen rich kids, repeated issues with plainly obvious personal and professional ethical decisions (rules don’t apply to me), hair strangeness, weak leaders and decision makers. Etc etc

    On the other hand, I’d say they’re the two capital-permitted opposites. Macron/Trudeau are in one category, Johnson and Trump in another.

  67. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Well that’s your perogative.But if you wanted to share perspetives that are not subject to non-disclosure, that would be a service IMO.Your at BLG aren’t you? I will look you up and send you an email at work to follow up, if you’d accept.

    Happy to correspond via e-mail.

  68. jp says:

    Thanks

  69. godot10 says:

    DM at twitter godot10 or gmail godot10.

    These are lightly used accounts but if I know a message is coming I will check them.

  70. godot10 says:

    The economy in 1918 still had relatively sound money, and it was based on real production. It was also relatively local.

    The economy in 2020 is a globalized financialized Ponzi economy and unsound money. It dies when the spice…er…credit stops flowing.

  71. N64 says:

    Munny: Bars (not large city clubs obviously), typically run somewhere in the neighbourhood of 150-175 capacity so would be exempt from the regulation.

    My point was that the requiremens for 50-250 involve working with each industry very quickly to flesh that out or shut them down.. we both noted that this dynamic operated on universities even though completely exempted and they shut for review and did not reopen. Where we converge is that the same review for bars should result in closure or significant specific restrictions. Neither of would have closed them this week I see. Difference is do you give them a few days of dialog to find a way not to close? We could split the difference Thursday by explicitly stating that the mitigation required for 50-250 if not implementable would lead to closures of effected industry. Because it would anyways. See universities.

    Restaurants I think daily review is needed to evolve what’s permitted. I’ll note to no one’s surprise there is a 48% drop in capacity. I’m fine with seeing distance measures in place there ASAP

    Munny: if their parents must continue to work, often end up in the care of their grandparents.

    You see the problem there right. That’s the sort of thing the CMO is reviewing to guauge net results. Let’s split the difference for today and shut secondary while sorting out
    elementary.

  72. N64 says:

    And the worst possible collective result and also a bad personal bet that we’ll permit infection rates to get to 25%.

  73. N64 says:

    Munny: What is the exit strategy? How does it end? Because it can really only end with herd immunity… either through exposure or vaccination. Are we okay with relenting on the slowing measures at some point and a significant percentage of our elderly dying prematurely?

    I don’t know the public and political tolerance for either the mitigation measures or the deaths of familial p/matriarchs, but I do know the economy will not tolerate stringent mitigation long term.

    Let’s start with the last point. One country recently reported half their ICU occupancy was under 65. Seasonal flu experience does us a disservice here. The horror of death under 65 is going to resonate too.

    My fundamental thought is that entry and exit strategy are dead opposite (pun intended). Due to exponentials the hidden. 2 week past and hidden 2 week future the calculation of cost benefits is not calculable for entry but very calculable during exit. Completely assymetric. No balance photo available.

    As per OP and WG reports there is some relaxation on the far side. You only need about 60,% social contact reduction so first step is to focus on meeting non elastic demand. After that you can move on to see how much you can respond to elastic demand. How far life returns to normal before vaccines is unknown. Economic rebound afterwards unknown. But I do think countries in the developed world will be able to relax sufficiently to maintain agreement not to let this back out of control. We wait.

  74. N64 says:

    Hey my point wasnt that the economy is going to be unchanged by this. More that people will change and that the economy will change with them . The graph was a bromide but as I mentioned there is a lot of different things inside GDP and they will not be affected equally.

    What people choose afterwards and I don’t mean that in any political sense but just personally. How business look at supply chain risks afterwards. Those will all affect whatever shows up in GDP and stock markets. Economies will always meet inelastic and elastic needs. Will be more the same than we think and more different than we think. Who knows how much will change in 20 years with or without this crisis?

  75. N64 says:

    Hey my point wasnt that the economy is going to be unchanged by this. More that people will change and that the economy will change with them . The graph was a bromide but as I mentioned there is a lot of different things inside GDP and they will not be affected equally.

    What people choose afterwards and I don’t mean that in any political sense but just personally. How business look at supply chain risks afterwards. Those will all affect whatever shows up in GDP and stock markets. Economies will always meet inelastic and elastic needs. Will be more the same than we think and more different than we think. Who knows how much will change in 20 years with or without this crisis?

  76. godot10 says:

    Andy Slavitt
    Former Medicare, Medicaid & ACA head for Obama. Founded
    @usofcare
    &
    @townhallvntrs
    to make health care work.

    https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1238303395448008704

    Currently experts expect over 1 million deaths in the U.S. since the virus was not contained & we cannot even test for it.

  77. OilStained99 says:

    dessert1111,

    With the season being cut short… the salary cap may drop next season, instead of the earlier estimates of it going up. This may open the door to the league allowing each team to get 1 free buyout with no cap penalty. Covid – 19 may just solve our James Neal problem ?

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