James Neal. Joakim Nygard. Tracers.

James Neal had an interesting season. He had a four-goal game against the New York Islanders after scoring two against the Los Angeles Kings at the beginning of the year. He followed those two games with another goal against New Jersey on October 10, another against Chicago on October 14 and yet another against Detroit on October 18. Through eight games, Neal had nine goals. Incredible.

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Lowetide: What does Jesse Puljujarvi’s Liiga season tell us about his future?
  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How Oilers plan to help arena workers unclear with games postponed
  • Lowetide: NHL season on hold might impact Oilers evaluations, summer plans
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Jonathan Willis: Key questions surround Oilers in wake of NHL’s coronavirus suspension
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman and Murat Ates: ‘It hits you so hard’: Health crisis puts vital Oilers-Jets game in perspective
  • Jonathan Willis: Mikko Koskinen vs. Mike Smith: Who starts Game 1 for the Oilers?
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has found a home as a winger
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Q&A: GM Ken Holland on Oilers’ playoff push, offseason plans and Hart thoughts
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Oilers observations: Mikko Koskinen comes through in offensive power outage
  • Jonathan Willis: Evan Bouchard, Tyler Benson and more: 20 observations on the Bakersfield Condors
  • Lowetide: Caleb Jones represents Oilers template for development success
  • Jonathan Willis: Rookie pros Dmitri Samorukov, Kirill Maksimov learning in Oilers’ system
  • Lowetide: Oscar Klefbom’s return and usage a key element for Oilers stretch run
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How ‘little firecracker’ Josh Archibald went from unknown to vital with Oilers
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: Determining Connor McDavid’s linemates remains a pressing and perplexing problem
  • Lowetide: Reasonable expectations for Andreas Athanasiou and Tyler Ennis over the next 15 games.
  • Jonathan Willis: Ryan McLeod offers the Oilers size and speed. But will he score in the NHL?
  • Jonathan Willis: Which players pose the biggest threat to Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart Trophy?
  • Lowetide: How the Oilers deadline deals might alter summer plans
  • Jonathan Willis: Splitting Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl saved the Oilers’ season
  • Lowetide: Is the OHL still the Oilers’ primary resource at the draft?
  • Lowetide: The Oilers’ 2017 draft and the value of waiting five years

James Neal

In the first month of the year, James Neal scored eight power-play goals in less than 49 minutes (via NST). He would score four more PP goals in the following 109 minutes. In October, Neal averaged about 3.5 minutes on the power play; from November to the suspension of play, he averaged a little over 2.5 minutes with the man advantage. For the season, he ranks No. 2 in goals per 60 on the power play with 4.55 goals per 60 (Evander Kane) among forwards who have played 100 or more minutes. That’s an outstanding number.

Neal’s five on five performance over the last two seasons has been well documented. He’s eroding. However, in 296 five on five minutes with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, he scored four goals (.81 goals per 60) and a Corsi of 51.8 percent. That goal rate (.81 per 60) would rank him No. 112 among NHL forwards who played 400+ minutes at five on five this season. That’s at the top end of the average second line forward in today’s NHL. Is that a role Neal can play next season?

Joakim Nygard

On February 11, about one month ago, the Oilers signed winger Joakim Nyard to a one-year extension. The fast train has endured a couple of injuries in his first NHL season and the goals (three) haven’t come easy.

It’s fairly obvious there’s a player here. Nygard’s 1.27 points-per-60 at five on five is shy, but his shooting percentage (2.7) is bound to improve. He owns a 50 percent shot differential at five on five, and a 50.9 DFF percentage against elites. My guess is he’ll be one of the four left-wingers (Nuge, Ennis, Athanasiou, Nygard?) next fall. Note: I think Khaira will be on the team in the fall, as a center.

THROUGH THE PAST, DARKLY

2009 summer “MacT in a Box” post: This coach has shown a very specific and obvious tendency towards defense even in regard to rookie forwards. Fernando Pisani is a guy that may have been passed over (or taken longer to arrive) based on draft pedigree and both the 06-07 and 07-08 teams have had some young players hitting below the Mendoza line and still getting their at-bats. MacT loves forwards who can play solid postional games, and even when discussing kids like Gagner and Nilsson will make a point to mention that they have to ensure the offense they’re generating isn’t exceeded by what they’re giving up. A kid like Gagner is going to benefit heavily from this kind of coach, in a way someone like Rick Nash is only now getting around to in his career. Note from 2020: MacT would not coach Gagner in 2009-10.

1983 Fall TC

“Sammy Pollock used to say all jobs are open in Montreal but who was he kidding? Nobody was going to take Larry Robinson’s job or Guy Lafleur’s. In our camp I refuse to tell the players that. But I’d love it if somebody took a job away from a returning player. If that happened, that would make our team stronger.” Glen Sather, fall 1983

Tomorrow, I’ll have a prospects item for you at The Athletic and we’ll chat about the 50-man here. I don’t like to brag (seriously, I hate it) but this is kind of my wheel house. As a Dad, I was expert at keeping my kids amused during long, boring road trips. I hope you’re not offended by my comparing you to children. Unrelated: Who is up for a sing-a-long?

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279 Responses to "James Neal. Joakim Nygard. Tracers."

  1. flyfish1168 says:

    Cold Canadian winter evening and no Hockey night in Canada. I really enjoyed CBC decision to show two games on Saturday evening,Their best decision. Doesn’t sound right that there won’t be any games. It is for the best to fight covid 19. Movie night instead unless I buy a game console and learn about Game controllers. lol

  2. N64 says:

    Are we there yet?

  3. LEAP OF FAITH says:

    N64,

    Row, row, row your boat,
    Gently down the stream,
    Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily,
    Life is but a dream.

  4. dessert1111 says:

    I think Neal will be one of the most interesting decisions this offseason.

    The three scenarios are trade, buyout, or keep on the roster.

    If it’s a trade, it’ll be for a loss – whether it’s taking back another bad contract or giving up something of value. I think the best case scenario is probably a trade with half the salary retained or something built along a bigger, more complex package.

    A buyout extends the pain. I hate seeing the wasted cap dollars from buy outs, and I don’t think I’ve been in favour of any of the last several buyouts (Sekera, Pouliot, certainly Gryba) – although with Neal, I would be *more ok* with it.

    He could be kept on the roster in the hopes that he has some more good streaks or can lose some of his negative value over the year to make the last two years of his contract tradeable. The issue with this is I think he and Chiasson are similar players. Chiasson adds more to the powerplay, or at the very least they’re close, and both players are slow, streaky goal scorers. Chiasson is obviously much cheaper, and I think he is also better defensively.

    With the cap uncertainties going forward, I think I would hold off on a buyout for another year, even if it means rolling the dice and seeing if he can play the role Gagner did in Columbus (4th line evens, 1PP).

    The issue with this, though, is that your 4th line should be something like Sheahan/Haas-Archibald-Nygard – Neal would be a better fit on an outscoring third line, but I think he might be a net negative in that role.

    Next year, I would rather Athanasiou on that third line, with an unknown centre (free agency/trade) and Chiasson to start with Benson waiting to take his job. That leaves Neal as a very, very expensive pressbox guy until injuries start.

    • €√¥£€^$ says:

      I think Haas has NHL skill and definitely NHL speed, and I like his determination, but he is not built for the NHL game. Also he is very poor at face-offs.

      I doubt he returns to the league next year and his body will thank him for it.

  5. Brantford Boy says:

    LEAP OF FAITH,

    97 bottles of beer on the wall, 97 bottles of beer… take one down, pass it around…

  6. jtblack says:

    The wheels on the bus go round and round,
    round and round, round and round,
    The wheels on the bus …………

    • N64 says:

      You got that lyric wrong. Pretty sure it’s:

      The Boys on the Bus go round and round
      Round and round
      Round and round
      The Boys on the Bus go round and round
      All through the town

  7. Brantford Boy says:

    Tracers… question:
    We are to believe Stevie Y asked for a first rounder for Andreas Athanasiou… but Holland got him for 2 second rounders.

    If we could get either of these pieces (1 first, 2 seconds) back in return at the draft, would you move on from this player? Yes or No…

    Bonus:
    What draft picks would a fair return be for Khaira?

    • €√¥£€^$ says:

      1. Yes

      2. High 4th or low 5th

    • Andy Dufresne says:

      I wonder if we should adopt a standard practice in here of specifying top 10 Middle 10 and Bottom 10 of each round when we are trying peg value or propose a trade.

      Becasue the value of the first 10 picks in the 2nd round is much higher than a pick in the last 10 of the 2nd round.

      Lets ady for example JJ is worth a 2nd rounder…. is that an early 2nd a middle 2nd or a late 2nd???

      The other obvious variable is, how deep is the draft in any given year.

      TO my eye, JJ is a replacemnt level player on a not great contract. If I were another team, I would not give up a top ten 2nd rounder for him.

      A middle of late 2nd rounder perhaps.

    • Victoria Oil says:

      I know it’s still early days, but I would not be opposed to moving AA even though we won’t get a first or two seconds back. His value is declining, I’m sorry to say.

  8. oilersfan says:

    I’m not sure what sportsnet will do but if they own the rights they should televise in Edmonton all the games from 2006 Stanley run, in Calgary the 2004 run, in Vancouver the 2011 run. Not sure what they would watch in Toronto … maybe 1993? Anyways I know I would watch the 2006 run again.

    During intermission interview Pisani, Smyth ,Pronger, Horcoff , etc
    Would be awesome

  9. Fuge Udvar says:

    Good thing Holland got most of his summer work done early. If we do get playoffs it could be a pretty short off season.

    Ennis-McDavid-Kassian
    Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamo
    AA-New guy-Archibald
    Nygard-Sheahan-Neal
    Khaira-Chaisson

    Klefbom-Larsson
    Nurse-Bear
    Jones-Benning
    Russel-Bouchard

    Holland could easily bring back nearly this entire team if he has faith in it. I’d imagine he tries to move Chaisson, Benning and Russell. An upgrade on Ennis with someone a little more toolsy would be nice but I don’t mind him there. McDavid needs Kunitz more than an Ovechkin. Haas will be in the NHL, just not on this team.

  10. flyfish1168 says:

    If the season is canceled I’m guessing we won’t owe the phlegms the 3rd round pick.

    • Fuge Udvar says:

      I’m sure the trade conditions didn’t include and clause about league play suspensions. I think we are in the clear

      • €√¥£€^$ says:

        This trade does not include a “contingency clause”, it is exactly as it is written. Just like for bonuses.

        No one can say with any quantifiable certainty what a player or a team, for that matter, will do in x number of remaining games.

        Wouldn’t we call this “moving the goal posts”?

  11. Ben says:

    Who had “Neal=Selivanov” on the 19/20 bingo card?

    Covid may have sealed Neal’s fate. Had the cap gone up by $4-5M, maybe Holland keeps him on a grinder line for another year.

    As it is, I think he gets bought out (saving about $4M) so KH can add another winger.

    What a spectacular trade…

  12. Seismic Source says:

    oilersfan,

    What a great idea.

    Toronto gets the Yule tide log.

  13. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Via @ardonkurt1975 on Twitter:

    Hello out there, we’re off the air, no Hockey Night tonight.
    Gates are closed, tension grows, no pucks go down the ice.
    The players wait, to hear their fate, this Corona is a pain!
    As it stands, “Wash your hands!” to resume the hockey game!

    Oh!………#hockeysong 🏒 #hockey

  14. JimmyV1965 says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Tracers… question:
    We are to believe Stevie Y asked for a first rounder for Andreas Athanasiou… but Holland got him for 2 second rounders.

    If we could get either of these pieces (1 first, 2 seconds) back in return at the draft, would you move on from this player? Yes or No…

    Bonus:
    What draft picks would a fair return be for Khaira?

    Definitely not moving on from AA. His value is probably the lowest it will ever be. He has scored at every level, including a long track record in the NHL. Even if you ignore his 30 goal season, he has scored at a 20-goal pace throughout his career. Maybe he has hit some kind of wall and will never be the player he was, but his track record screams 20 goals +.

    • Ben says:

      Agree. Flip side of him having a down season is you can maybe get him for at least a year at QO numbers.

  15. Mr DeBakey says:

    Alex Chiasson has been on the ice for 138 5v4 minutes; the Oilers have scored 30 goals.
    James Neal has been on the ice for 148:46 5v4 minutes; the Oilers have scored 27 goals.

    Advantage Chiasson.

  16. Ben says:

    If NHL resumes in a couple of weeks they should start with best-of-3 wildcard playoffs: 7v10, 8v9.

    • N64 says:

      Only catch is that any games involving teams that could occupy those spots with 72 GP should be played or or those teams included some other way.

    • Mr DeBakey says:

      How about, sort by Pts Per Game
      Top 13 into the play-offs
      Next nine split into 3 pools of 3: 14-19-22, 15-18-21, 16-17-20
      Single round robin with the top team from each pool advancing to the round of 16.
      Bottom 9 teams just go golfing.

    • godot10 says:

      The NHL is not going to resume play in a couple of weeks.

      The world is not going to resume in a couple of weeks.

      The denial is still so strong out there.

    • Wilde says:

      The US-Canada border will be closed/pretty much closed two weeks from now…

      • N64 says:

        Even if open they’d need to be designated as a labour group exempt from 2 weeks quarantine in every province they play in.Thats on the far side of the wave.

  17. jtblack says:

    Ben:
    If NHL resumes in a couple of weeks they should start with best-of-3 wildcard playoffs: 7v10, 8v9.

    1 case in China was Dec.31st .. they are still in lockdown .

    So there won’t be a “start it up” in 2 weeks …. Think more like 2 Months, best case

    • Ben says:

      Yeah, probably. There was talk of starting back up in empty arenas assuming all players and staff had tested negative, but travel restrictions have surely kiboshed that.

    • godot10 says:

      2 years.

      • €√¥£€^$ says:

        You come up with the damnedest statements.

        I think 4 to 6 months we should be back to close to normal. I don’t understand why schools are * NOT closing in the bigger urban centers. But there are also variables like child care to factor into it, which makes it even more complex.

        *edited – my apologies

        • N64 says:

          If not closed in Alberta before spring break suspect they all come home Friday with a note saying spring break is of unknown length

          • €√¥£€^$ says:

            I would expect this to be the case.

            Thank you for all the info you’ve been sharing, I come here for the hockey, but stay here for the long-distance learnin’.

  18. Andy Dufresne says:

    So if the season is over…..does that mean we dont have to give Calgary our 3rd round pick??

    • jtblack says:

      I would say that would be the case … Neal did not score 21, so no 3rd goes to Calgary

  19. godot10 says:

    N64:
    Are we there yet?

    When is the helicopter money going to fall from the sky for us normal folk, not just the 1%?

    • Wilde says:

      when the central committee’s decree scares them enough

    • Johnny skid says:

      looking for hand-outs is not a recipe for success.

      • Mr DeBakey says:

        Tell that to the 1%

      • N64 says:

        Salaried workers get carried. Retirees get carried. They pay farmers not to plant. However long they need people to stay at home they have to finance that if no one else is

        Like one Freedom Caucus guy said (from memory) Guess we are all socialist during a shared pandemic.

    • godot10 says:

      I hope it is paper currency that falls. We will need it to use as toilet paper.

      Strange world we will be living in. When toilet paper is money, and paper currency is toilet paper.

      • pts2pndr says:

        You are very young. Old outhouses you used old sears catalogue pages. Thought you had it made around Christmas when you got the mandarin orange wrappers. For many years societies used washable rags. If people can’t cope without toilet paper God help them if they ever have to kill and preserve their own food. There is soft and their is very soft. I am not talking about toilet paper.

      • SkatinginSand says:

        I don’t think that mylar stuff will work very well. I hope everyone has some greenbacks.

    • Dustylegnd says:

      Run government debt vs GDP from 2009 forward……the massive liquidity injection has not helped to grow economies. QE has served to make the wealthy really wealthy and the rich richer.

      The middle class is slowly disappearing, because we have lost the ability to redistribute wealth to the middle class.

      Look at percentage of CEO pay to their workers pay in the last 40 years…the dislocation is shocking

      Now having said that, an elephant ride in Thailand is more important than saving and investing in an equity portfolio….sacrifice is a 4 letter word…..

      but we fail our children, we don’t have financial literacy classes, we don’t stress the power of time in investing, kids don’t understand time value of money and what that trip to Bali really costs them 20 years later

  20. Wilde says:

    I have season totals because season total’d

    Regular Condors forwards (GP) by iCF/GP / / iCFA/GP / / iCont/GP / / iCont%

    Gambardella (50) – 2.86 / / 2.96 / / 5.82 / / 43.60%

    Yamamoto (23) – 3.13 / / 3.65 / / 6.78 / / 37.40%

    Esposito (56) – 2.07 / / 1.89 / / 3.96 / / 32.52%

    Stukel (35) – 2.46 / / 0.69 / / 3.14 / / 35.19%

    Maksimov (53) – 2.40 / / 1.64 / / 4.04 / / 38.40%

    Peluso (37) – 1.54 / / 1.62 / / 3.16 / / 33.10%

    Koules (32) – 1.94 / / 1.14 / / 3.00 / / 28.22%

    Benson (47) – 2.70 / / 3.13 / / 5.83 / / 41.39%

    Malone (49) – 1.90 / / 2.43 / / 4.33 / / 33.18%

    Currie (56) – 4.61 / / 1.89 / / 6.50 / / 45.25%

    Marody (30) – 2.13 / / 2.93 / / 5.07 / / 34.19%

    Hebig (31) – 1.71 / / 0.81 / / 2.52 / / 31.99%

    Cave (44) – 3.09 / / 2.39 / / 5.48 / / 36.42%

    McLeod (56) – 1.59 / / 2.21 / / 3.80 / / 35.98%

    Granlund (20) – 2.50 / / 2.05 / / 4.55 / / 35.03%

    e: should do definitions

    iCF = individual shot attempt
    iCFA = individual shot attempt primary assist
    iCont = individual shot contributions (sum of the above two)
    iCont% = share of the team’s shot attempts-for the player was on the ice for that they released or had the primary assist on

    • €√¥£€^$ says:

      Thank you!

      I like the rookie numbers put up by Maksimov.

      Marody still put up good numbers, good to see.

      Currie is a stone cold killer at this level.

      I thought Gambardella and Russell would be the 4th line wingers out of TC. I am happy to see JoeyG still put up some decent numbers this season, but looks like his NHL aspirations will not come to fruition.

  21. Andy Dufresne says:

    I dont think the James Neal decision is binary or static. The logic changes depending on several variables.

    1) What does the roster need. Can what the roster needs be added if we buyout Neal?

    2) Is what the roster needs even available in the market place?

    3) Do any of our prospects require a roster spot in order to maintian thier development trajectory?

    4) What does the cap even look like after the season ends prematurley and revenue is way down?

    5) Will the NHL allow a compliance buyout for each team given the delta between the projected cap for 2020/21 (on which GMs built out their rosters) and the actual cap for 2020/21

    6) Given the variables 1 through 5 above AND the trajectory of status as a “cup contender” is there an “optimal” year in which to buyout Neal? 2020? 2021? 2022?

    etc etc

  22. Andy Dufresne says:

    JimmyV1965: Definitely not moving on from AA. His value is probably the lowest it will ever be. He has scored at every level, including a long track record in the NHL. Even if you ignore his 30 goal season, he has scored at a 20-goal pace throughout his career. Maybe he has hit some kind of wall and will never be the player he was, but his track record screams 20 goals +.

    I think most GMs are longer term thinkers. Holland invested two 2nd rounders. MANY new adds to a team have an adjustment period. AA will be here until at least the trade dealine next year .imo

    • SkatinginSand says:

      Thinking of moving on from him now reminds me of the Ryan Strome situation here.

  23. Wilde says:

    Wilde,

    Game Score per game, full season, regular forwards / defense; by highest-lowest:

    Yamamoto – 1.08 (lol)
    Cave – 0.71
    Currie – 0.61
    Gambardella – 0.56
    Benson – 0.54
    Marody – 0.50
    Stukel – 0.41
    Granlund – 0.41
    McLeod – 0.40
    Esposito – 0.36
    Maksimov – 0.35
    Peluso – 0.29
    Hebig – 0.25
    Malone – 0.24
    Koules – 0.20

    Jones – 0.68
    Lagesson – 0.64
    Bouchard – 0.54
    Kulevich – 0.40
    Persson – 0.38
    Lowe – 0.32
    Samorukov – 0.31
    Day – 0.19
    Manning – 0.08

  24. Gret99zky says:

    godot10:
    The NHL is not going to resume play in a couple of weeks.

    The world is not going to resume in a couple of weeks.

    The denial is still so strong out there.

    The denial is still dangerously too strong out there.

    Thanks to N64 for the updates.

    Social distancing is crucial right now. Today.

    People need to know how important a single day can be in something that grows exponentially.

    Be safe. Stay away from crowds.

    Be an example for your family and friends.

  25. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10:
    2 years.

    Wow. This is really out there. Wonder if you will walk it back when you realize this is wildly alarmist.

    • New Improved Darkness says:

      It’s only alarmist if telling the truth too soon is alarmist.

      Two years is a huge rush for a vaccine, given where they started. One year would be a blistering pace, and not tested to previous safety standards. They may not choose to roll version 1.0 out immediately to anyone of normal health under the age of 50 per a risk/reward calculation.

      With the introduction of a working vaccine, then we’ll finally be on the down slope, but if you have ever met an antivaxer, you’ll know how hard it is to role a vaccine out in just a few months beyond 80% of the population, so this thing will cough along with strained medical services for most of another year.

      The first unvarnished estimate I saw from a public health expert (less than a week ago) was three years (with huge error bars).

      If the Canadian public health system has indeed succeeded in getting testing out in front of the plump Italian pig, then we’ll be swallowing a long, thin dachshund for a month of Sundays, leaving fewer stretch-marks on the python, who will be sleeping off his slow meal in the hot, pestilent sun until long after the fate of next year’s hockey season is the current news of the day.

      Then I estimate another full year for the systemic recovery to any semblance of prior normalcy.

      ———

      Atlantic hurricane season

      On a worldwide scale, May is the least active month, while September is the most active.

      In the Northern Atlantic Ocean, a distinct hurricane season occurs from June 1 to November 30, sharply peaking from late August through September; the season’s climatological peak of activity occurs around September 10 each season.

      This is a stackable disaster, guaranteed to persist beyond the first obvious stacking point.

      How did that work out the last time?

      * Trump tried to illegally withhold disaster relief money from Puerto Rico — 17 January 2019
      * Top Florida Republicans distance themselves from Trump’s false claims on Puerto Rican death toll — 13 September 2018
      * Hurricane Maria Death Toll Estimate Climbs To Nearly 3,000: Study — 28 August 2018
      * Trump attacks Puerto Rico mayor: ‘They want everything done for them’ — 30 September 2017

      Next time up to the battered box, lather, rinse and repeat with Covid-19.

  26. OriginalPouzar says:

    The Neal/Lucic trade was a win the moment it was made due to contract alone – the more buyout friendly deal and the removal of the NMC and potential expansion draft ramifications if Lucic does not waive (imagine having to protect Lucic…..).

    The ridiculous goal scoring heater than Neal went on early in the year was an absolute cherry on top.

    It didn’t last and Neal has proven to be a bottom 6 winger at 5 on 5 but also a guy that can at least eat some minutes in the top 6 when needed and provide a semblance of skill up there.

    I like him on a “skilled but heavy” 4th line and think that type of line might be quite good in the playoffs – lets not forget, Neal is big and can be kind of filthy out there around the boards – if he’s healthy and energized, he could be a solid playoff guy – when he’s playing on the edge, he adds something out there.

    I hope they don’t buy him out, just because I can’t look at a $2M dead cap hit for 6 years, even knowing it saves $3M plus for a couple – its too much dead cap for me.

    Hey, maybe the NHL and NHLPA negotiate in one amnesty/compliance buyout due to lost revenue in a shortened/cancelled season…….

  27. OriginalPouzar says:

    I’m not really sold on Nygard – I don’t know what this player is.

    He’s not really good enough to be a top 6 guy but he’s not really a bottom 6 guy either.

    S. Poster told us, before the season, that his goal scoring numbers in Sweden were a function of volume of chances created off his speed but that he wasn’t a great finisher – we’ve seen exactly that, haven’t we? Not a great finished and, with the uptick in league, the chances aren’t as voluminous.

    At the same time, we do see flashes of real skill from him with the puck – they never really work 100% though.

  28. jtblack says:

    OriginalPouzar,

    “I hope they don’t buy him out, just because I can’t look at a $2M dead cap hit for 6 years, even knowing it saves $3M plus for a couple – its too much dead cap for me.”

    Do you know what the buyout would be if they bought him out AFTER next season? I am thinking it would be slightly less $$ but for onlyl 4 years. that might make sense ..

  29. Reja says:

    Woodguy v2.0:
    Via @ardonkurt1975 on Twitter:

    Hello out there, we’re off the air, no Hockey Night tonight.
    Gates are closed, tension grows, no pucks go down the ice.
    The players wait, to hear their fate, this Corona is a pain!
    As it stands, “Wash your hands!” to resume the hockey game!


    Oh!………#hockeysong 🏒 #hockey

    Might be some seventies hockey on the Toilet Paper Wars at your local grocery stores this afternoon.

  30. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: Wow. This is really out there. Wonder if you will walk it back when you realize this is wildly alarmist.

    I believe I was the first person on this blog to suggest the playoffs would be played in empty buildings, and I was scoffed at Turns out I was wildly optimistic.

    I have said this before. I always consider worst case scenarios, and their likelihood. Hope is not a strategy, particularly with pandemics.

    • godot10 says:

      The world has to “shutdown”, pause for awhile, and then restart, all without hiccups. That is not going to happen in a couple of months.

    • Halfwise says:

      We should each assume that we have the virus and are not yet symptomatic.

      We should assume all of the people we see in person have the virus and are not yet symptomatic.

      Those two assumptions will lead to the behaviours that will flatten the curve of this thing.

      While we are at home we are free to subscribe to whatever theories we wish as to the cause of this thing and what should have been done about it but wasn’t done, because of ________ [fill in our pet target here].

      Note that whatever theories and causes we wish to cling to in the preceding paragraph will be hotly contested, because humans, but debate will be frowned upon, also because humans.

    • godot10 says:

      The world’s Ponzi economy depends on the spice…i.e credit…continuing to flow. Stopping the virus means severely interrupting the flow.

    • Dustylegnd says:

      Not wildly optimistic, but rather you were wrong…..they were never going to play NHL games in empty stadium, I never believed that scenario for a second because the revenue hit is too large.

      • N64 says:

        Ah but the TV revenue was too big for the league to ignore. But then again this disease hitting their homes and communities was always going too big for the players to ignore even if the logistics were possible in some remote location with all 16 teams locked down.

  31. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10: I believe I was the first person on this blog to suggest the playoffs would be played in empty buildings, and I was scoffed atTurns out I was wildly optimistic.

    I have said this before.I always consider worst case scenarios, and their likelihood. Hope is not a strategy, particularly with pandemics.

    Coronavirus is a serious threat. Of that there is no question. We have to take it seriously and take precautions. I’ve only started researching it in the last day or so, but I haven’t found one single expert who thinks this thing could rage on for two years. The problem with people like you is you spread fear. The panic caused by doomsayers can be more dangerous than the illness itself. All those people stockpiling toilet paper are the same ones who will choke off the health care system when they get mild flu like systems and rush to the hospital. Thank goodness no one here really takes your comments seriously and thank goodness you don’t have a platform to spread fear.

    • Johnny skid says:

      yep.

    • godot10 says:

      I didn’t say the virus would rage on for two years. I said things might be start to get back to (a new) normal in two years.

      The virus causes two things. A health crisis and an economic crisis.

      • JimmyV1965 says:

        godot10:
        I didn’t say the virus would rage on for two years.I said things might be start to get back to (a new) normal in two years.

        The virus causes two things.A health crisis and an economic crisis.

        What does this even mean? What’s normal? Will the NHL be operating in October? Give me a prediction that means something? Not just things will not be normal.

        • godot10 says:

          Prediction. No MLB or NFL this year. No NBA or NHL next year. I consider this a better case scenario.

          What is normal? I think the world will be significantly different after the health and economic crises have run their course.

          • meanashell11 says:

            This is BS. There will be NHL next year. There are two types of financial crises, banking and non-banking. 2008 was a banking crisis and those take a long time to work themselves out. This will be a typical recession. I certainly do not believe the NHL will only be shut down for two weeks but can easily see two months. It’s March, life is returning to normal in China. The peak in the US will probably be in 6 weeks. The economy will take the a year to recover. This is my view. Your mileage may vary. @Rnaughtisathing

    • €√¥£€^$ says:

      +1000

  32. who says:

    Brantford Boy:
    Tracers… question:
    We are to believe Stevie Y asked for a first rounder for Andreas Athanasiou… but Holland got him for 2 second rounders.

    If we could get either of these pieces (1 first, 2 seconds) back in return at the draft, would you move on from this player? Yes or No…

    Bonus:
    What draft picks would a fair return be for Khaira?

    I liked the AA trade at the time and its waaaay to early to write him off. I would keep him.
    I’d also keep Khaira. He makes 1.2 million, kills penalties, and adds size and physicality to the lineup. Why is everyone in a hurry to trade him for a mid round pick? Isn’t he kind of the best case scenario for a mid round pick?

    • Halfwise says:

      I agree with this take. How good is he at the role he is supposed to fill? Who is better at that role, available, and cheaper?

      • €√¥£€^$ says:

        I wanted AA, was pleased it did not cost a 1st rounder, but was taken aback by 2 x 2nds. The add of Ryan Kufner was a pleasant surprise.

        Certainly everyone should be given an opportunity, but I have been intently watching AA, just like I do every new addition, and other than his shot, he completely underwhelms me. He appears to play on cruise control and on the same line with Arch, the commitment levels are as stark as I’ve ever seen.

        I’d love to give him the benefit of the doubt, but he is a vet who will make more than $3,000,000 next year. Does he, will he, can he bring even a fraction of the value to this team that Archibald brings? That is my concern.

        If we could flip him for Miles Wood plus a NJ’s 2021 2nd, I wouldn’t hesitate.

  33. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    jtblack: 1 case in China was Dec.31st .. they are still in lockdown .

    So there won’t be a “start it up” in 2 weeks ….Think more like 2 Months, best case

    China is not still in lock down.

    I talk to 3 different mills in 3 different areas weekly or multiple times a week, especially lately.

    All mills (and many businesses) in China shut down for 2 weeks for Chinese New Year (CNY). This year it was the last two weeks in January.

    It usually take the mills a week after to get up to speed after that.

    This year with all the shut down, that didn’t happen as workers couldn’t get back to work as they couldn’t travel.

    Mill 1 – Dalian – close to North Korea
    They have been back at full staff for 2 weeks.

    Mill 2 near Guangzhou (in the South)
    They were at 70% staff after being 30% last week. Expect 100% over the next week or two

    Mill 3 – half way between Wuhan and Shanghai
    At 50% staff, coming up slower than the other mills, but back producing and expecting similar increases as the other mills over the next two weeks

    Also,

    My magic 8 ball has mid-June resumption of NHL hockey.

    • jtblack says:

      Thanks for the correction .. 

      My point was that anyone who thinks the NHL will be back playing in 2 weeks, is not aware of the impact of COVID-19 and the timelines to “recovery”.

      Italy’s first case was FEb.20th and look where they are now … I am not sure how long it will take until society is operating at 100% capacity, or normal conditions, but it clearly won’t be 2 weeks.

      I am hopeful like you and your crystal 8 ball, that the NHL could be playing again by Mid May to MId June … 

      Cases are ramping up fast in Italy, Spain, Germany and France ….I think how the next week or 2 plays out for them, will give us some indication who how it *might* play out in North America.

    • €√¥£€^$ says:

      There have been quite a few smaller communities that have put up blockades so no outsiders can enter. It has caused some problems and the Gov’t is starting to crack down on these illegal barricades. So it depends on the region, but it is not uncommon.

      FWIW I visited Wuhan 2 years ago and was at that market, but I didn’t walk thru the wet market area. I didn’t know about it, but had I known I would not have gone near it; I hate seeing animals in small cages.

      My wife’s neice and her husband live in Wuhan, but they were back in Putian the last week of December and started to self-quarantine on the 10th of Jan. As of 2 weeks ago Putian was out of quarantine, but they have not received word when they can return to Wuhan, as it is still on lock down They’ve heard anywhere from end of April to sometime in June.

      Unfortunately there are a lot of conspiracy theories being passed around in China, mainly that the US planted the virus. Luckily the government is finally starting to crack down on the wild animal market.

    • meanashell11 says:

      This.

      Also, WG do you know a company that is building a plant in China called Cleantech Building Materials?

  34. who says:

    Woodguy v2.0: China is not still in lock down.

    I talk to 3 different mills in 3 different areas weekly or multiple times a week, especially lately.

    All mills (and many businesses) in China shut down for 2 weeks for Chinese New Year (CNY). This year it was the last two weeks in January.

    It usually take the mills a week after to get up to speed after that.

    This year with all the shut down, that didn’t happen as workers couldn’t get back to work as they couldn’t travel.

    Mill 1 – Dalian – close to North Korea
    They have been back at full staff for 2 weeks.

    Mill 2 near Guangzhou (in the South)
    They were at 70% staff after being 30% last week.Expect 100% over the next week or two

    Mill 3 – half way between Wuhan and Shanghai
    At 50% staff, coming up slower than the other mills, but back producing and expecting similar increases as the other mills over the next two weeks

    Also,

    My magic 8 ball has mid-June resumption of NHL hockey.

    What does your magic 8 ball say about a playoff format?
    If your 8 ball is right I assume the regular season is over?

    • Woodguy v2.0 says:

      *shakes main 8 ball*

      Regular season income is paramount to the teams so the league will go to great lengths, including shortening the first 2-3 rounds of the playoffs to 5 games, to finish the regular season.

  35. Victoria Oil says:

    I think the NHL and NHLPA should allow one buyout per team but put some kind of limit on it. For example, if the maximum relief a team could get from a buyout was $10 million, then the Oilers would still have a $1.5 million cap hit over 6 years from buying out Neal (vs $11.5 million over 6 years as it would be now without an ‘amnesty’ buyout). Putting a limit on the buyout relief would still penalize teams for the stupid contracts that they gave out, but also address the extraordinary circumstances that we are now facing.

  36. N64 says:

    godot10:
    I didn’t say the virus would rage on for two years.I said things might be start to get back to (a new) normal in two years.

    The virus causes two things.A health crisis and an economic crisis.

    Can split that a bunch of ways. Health Crisis, Production/Logistics Crisis, Portfolio/Consumer Crisis.

    Last one first: Bear Marker take what about 2 years on average. Zero interest in that (pun intended)

    Woodguy is referring to production. % of workforce back in gear is key thing to learn from places coming out the far side. They’ll find out how much social interaction can return safely pre-vaccines.

    New normal in terms of daily life? Depends on the definition and a lot of the luck,

    Insert beginning of the end or end of the beginning jokes.

  37. BONE207 says:

    All these superpowers & their weapons as well as star wars aspirations were brought down with a microscopic bug that is from earth. How would we fare if something big or small came from outerspace? I went to a bar yesterday. The thirst is still alive.

    As for hockey…most of us here were hoping that this year would be a building year. Playoffs an outside chance & 20/21 was where we would really see the Oilers blossom. If this season gets written off, we’ve gained that extra seasoning with a decent roster to start next year. If this season continues, it’s an open competition. Everyone healthy & rested. Oilers started 7-2-1 with many question marks. That would work well in the playoffs too. Only now the team knows what it has & can improve on that. Either way, we can now expect playoffs & the question is…how far can they go & what have they learned.

    • N64 says:

      BONE207: All these superpowers & their weapons as well as star wars aspirations were brought down with a microscopic bug that is from earth. How would we fare if something big or small came from outerspace?

      It didn’t? I hear there’s an interstellar expressway due to be installed after a little sanitation exercise. Don’t forget your towel.

      Oh. And do that first bit with your Rod Sterling voice next time.

  38. OriginalPouzar says:

    Oilers Investors Group should be switched to the nice list:

    All part-time staff affected by a temporary halt in our operations will receive financial payment to bridge them between their maximum EI benefits and their regular average earnings for remaining regular season games.”

    https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/release … -316167786

  39. OriginalPouzar says:

    Andy Dufresne:
    I wonder if we should adopt a standard practice in here of specifying top 10 Middle 10 and Bottom 10 of each round when we are trying peg value or propose a trade.

    Becasue the value of the first 10 picks in the 2nd round is much higher than a pick in the last 10 of the 2nd round.

    Lets ady for example JJ is worth a 2nd rounder…. is that an early 2nd a middle 2nd or a late 2nd???

    The other obvious variable is, how deep is the draft in any given year.

    TO my eye, JJ is a replacemnt level player on a not great contract. If I were another team, I would not give up a top ten 2nd rounder for him.

    A middle of late 2nd rounder perhaps.

    JJ’s cap hit is $1.2M – its almost entirely buryable in the minor leagues.

    Yup, he’s a 4th line player but he’s also a high end PK guy and, yes, that has value.

    I’m not saying its a great contract or he’s outperforming it but its hardly an issue – in my opinion.

  40. N64 says:

    godot10: I believe I was the first person on this blog to suggest the playoffs would be played in empty buildings, and I was scoffed at Turns out I was wildly optimistic.

    Very. Clearly you’re one of those super optimists never scarred by the 1994 Expos.

    February 25, 2020 at 1:49 pm
    Andy Dufresne:
    Dow Jones lost 1000 pts yesterday. so far 800 pts today.
    On the bright side, Tims is giving away a free Asian Cruise with every breakfast combo purchased.

    N64says:

    On the 94 Expos side:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/sports/soccer/coronavirus-inter-milan-ludogorets-italy.html

    “Inter Milan will play its Europa League home game on Thursday without spectators. In China, South Korea and Japan, domestic leagues are not playing games at all”.

  41. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$: This trade does not include a “contingency clause”, it is exactly as it is written. Just like for bonuses.

    No one can say with any quantifiable certainty what a player or a team, for that matter, will do in x number of remaining games.

    Wouldn’t we call this “moving the goal posts”?

    https://theathletic.com/1673452/2020/03/12/key-questions-surround-oilers-in-wake-of-nhls-coronavirus-suspension/

    Based on how they handled bonuses in the 48-game 2013 season, it’s more likely that the NHL would prorate the players’ totals. Neal’s 19 goals through 71 Edmonton games would project to 22 over a full season, while Lucic’s eight over 70 Calgary games would project to nine over an 82-game slate. Both totals would satisfy the conditions involved in the trade.

    A coda to that: When the NHL prorated bonuses in 2013, it prorated both the conditions required (e.g. a bonus based on 20 games played was triggered at 12) and also the amount of the bonus (e.g. a $20,000 bonus instead became $11,700). It’s much more difficult to prorate a draft pick, and the rationale about revenue (i.e. bonuses are lower in part because the NHL is making less money) don’t apply, but does that perhaps open the door to the argument by the Oilers that instead of transferring a third-rounder it should be a later selection?

    • N64 says:

      Dig a bit deeper. What happened to conditional trade picks in prior shortened seasons. The bonus adjustments were part of nhl player negotiations.

      Bettman is notorious for not wanting to make retroactive adjustments unless its out of his hands. when the owners got rid of the 2nd rounders for gms and coaches he instantly shot down talk of retroactivity.

    • €√¥£€^$ says:

      I understand the logic for a shortened season that applies to everyone. But in this instance, if we are talking about bonuses, the revenues by teams are reduced, so how can paying more with less be justified. From a business perspective this make no sense.

      As far as the trade goes, this pro-rating goals argument is simply silly. If scoring totals are not pro-rated for injury, why would missing games for any reason factor into this? Again, I think it fallls to there is no guarantee what a player would score in x number of games.

      In November it looked like a certainty that Neal would have a 30 goal season, but you couldn’t make that statement in mid-January. Doing this sort of thing comes with too much risk and would simply be a very poor business decision.

      I will state with 100% certainty that if the season were to be officially cancelled, the Oilers will keep the 2020 3rd round pick. I don’t bet, but I am so certain that I’d be willing to bet you a Woodguy on this OP.

  42. €√¥£€^$ says:

    Two weeks ago go I was promoted, 2 days later my wife who is a Contracts specialist (23+ yrs experience) working as an independent contractor for a large Engineering firm was feeling ill (severe cold) went to inform her Manager that she was ill and was going home, 2 hours before the end of her work day.

    Her Manager asked her to close the door and then informed her that she was being let go, because her “low quality of performance did not justify her salary”… She was told she would be paid just her remaining salary owed.

    I am outraged about her treatment, there was no performance evaluation done and coming into the new year the Manager, who did not hire her, gave my wife a hard time over 2 specific contracts. Ultimately the direction, contrary to my wife’s recommendations resulted in delays that affected the entire multi-billion dollar project. My wife had mentioned there were sketchy emails that seemed to have been redacted that made her uneasy for her last few weeks there. I really want to take legal action, but my wife is 100% opposed, so she is trying to find a job in a dried up market.

    Ultimately she will probably not find anything in province and it is possible that she may have return to China for work after more than 13 years working in Canada.

    My reasons for sharing:

    1. The timing is pretty good in many ways
    2. China is likely the safest place to be in the world when it comes to Covid-19
    3. Are there any Employment Lawyers in the house?

    • OilFire says:

      I’d bet he will wait until she’s gone and then publicly blame her for the whole issue. Best scapegoat is the one that’s left the barn and can’t contradict. Hope you get some justice.

    • Thorin says:

      I think you’re looking for a lawyer that specializes in contract law, not employment law. I’m neither, but did go through the wringer last summer.

      If she’s an independent contractor then she has a contract that specifies how much notice either side has to give and how much will be paid out if the contract is terminated early. None of the typical employment protections would apply, including the concept that an employee should face increasing corrections before being let go. However if she was being treated as an employee (such as telling her when she has to start and finish her workday se more ,a href=”https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/forms-publications/publications/rc4110/employee-self-employed.html#qc_factors”>here) then there is a decent possibility that she could be ruled an employee and thus be due the protections an employee receives.

      If she’s considered an employee that was terminated without cause (“low quality of performance” with no performance evaluation before dismissal is pretty easy to argue as without cause), one of the protections would be receiving “reasonable notice” or payment in lieu, There is no distinctive rule here, but it is quite common to get anywhere from two weeks to a month’s notice per year of service, so if she’d been there five years that could be 2.5 to 5 months of salary and benefits they owe her.

      Based on my experience, I suggest you go talk to an employment lawyer to see if 1. they think this can be successfully argued into a contract of service (employer-employee) and 2. they think there is a reasonable chance for a large enough settlement.

      When I went, I had a one-hour meeting and then some follow-up and I paid $250 + gst for the lawyer. I did not move forward to sue for reasonable notice because my (ex-)employer had smartly hired a competent lawyer about nine months before the layoffs who put in all the exact right words. $250 was a bunch of money, especially while unemployed, but ultimately absolutely worth it because I no longer had that nagging question of what if.

    • Fuge Udvar says:

      Sounds awful but isn’t that the reason companies pay the premium for hiring contractors? Is that they aren’t technically their employers? I used to work under one of those temp agencies that companies then contract for workers. My understanding of why they did it was because they could get rid of us for any reason at any time. And then it was on the temp company to lay us off who then carried all the legal liability that has.

      But that’s my experience as a lowly grunt. If you can rake these guys over the coals. Its gross how often employers get away with screwing their employees.

      • €√¥£€^$ says:

        You can bet I was all over this, studying whatever I could get my hands on . Her perception is that she is an independent contractor, but in terms of employment law she is considered an employee. Her contract states that she could be let go at any time without notice and only 1 week’s salary would be paid. She worked there 13 months, so this contradicts employment law in Alberta. So how can this possibly be legal?

        When I read the company’s value statement, this type of situation is quite a contradiction and in my mind any competent lawyer would have a field day with this.

        One reason my wife doesn’t want to move ahead with any kind of legal action (aside from cost) is that the Manager has a lot of contacts and influence in the industry and she fears retaliation. This woman has a reputation of holding grudges and my wife believe she saw clear evidence of this grudge by the Manager against an employee of the company in another Department. This was related to the 2nd contract she was managing.

        As well, a couple of co-workers reached out to her expressing their disbelief of what happened to her the following week (she was fired on a Thursday) and also mentioned the Manager announced the dismissal of 4 employees “mostly for performance reasons”. The other 3 I do know about (2 worked at the site) and were quite likely truly low performers, but of course I am pretty confident they were not given performance evaluations or written warnings about poor performance either (they were also “independent contractors”). So if the perception of those who didn’t know my wife, but knew the others, IMO getting lumped in with these known poor performers is slanderous, or liablous. In my mind anyway.

        I know she would have a very strong case given her work/performance history and her professional designation, etc. As well, this firing Manager has taken over from the hiring Manager in June or July and every week she said “This Manager hates me”.

        Basically this Manager normally didn’t give her the time of day often putting her off until the next day, yet clearly favoured others, who would get an audience immediately and spend 20-30 minutes in her office. Whereas my wife would need only 5 minutes.

        The other part of this is, she found out in January that a co-worker from the previous company my wife had worked at was coming to this Department. The incoming worker was in a higher position than my wife and my had corrected this woman about certain things about certain contracts in the old job. My wife had twice the experience in this work than this woman and that company was the least professional place she had ever worked at. She learned that this woman was also a friend of the Manager and she started work the week after my wife left. Hmmmm, I can’t possibly connect any dots here…..

        To be clear, my wife is Chinese and she tells me everything. Well before this happened I had a good trip on the office dynamics and all the people she dealt with in the office. She doesn’t normally base her perception emotion, certainly nowhere like the ladies I’ve had in my life previously. Her world view is consistently black and white and if she has done something wrong or poorly, she readily admits it. She doesn’t do the things I have been used to seeing, so I think her perception is relatively objective and I take a large portion of what she says at face value. However when she starts playing detective, I do take her badge away.

  43. JimmyV1965 says:

    godot10:
    Prediction.No MLB or NFL this year.No NBA or NHL next year. I consider this a better case scenario.

    What is normal? I think the world will be significantly different after the health and economic crises have run their course.

    Thank you. You’re on the record saying no NHL next year.

  44. Material Elvis says:

    godot10:
    I hope it is paper currency that falls.We will need it to use as toilet paper.

    Strange world we will be living in.When toilet paper is money, and paper currency is toilet paper.

    I don’t think the new polymer bills are very absorbant…..

  45. Material Elvis says:

    There will be sports next year; a vaccine should be ready by then.

  46. Melvis says:

    Material Elvis: I don’t think the new polymer bills are very absorbant…..

    Neither was the Eatons catalogue. But then Red Foxx could do a 45 minute set on little more than “Wash Your Ass”.

  47. NicaOil says:

    I must be one of the fortunate ones in the game of life, 64 years old and retired without pension since 2011. Sitting with my wife on the beach in Bucerias, Mexico under the shade umbrella, windy watching the ocean and sucking back a cold can of Modello. Not a worry in the world, trying to decide what to have for dinner tonite. Watching the world turn without TV News or MSM newspapers now for nine awesome years. It sucks that there is no Oiler hockey to watch but I love reading my “lowetide”. You guys and gals are so very entertaining and informative, I love you all. Thanks Allan for the greatest blog ever!

  48. Scungilli Slushy says:

    godot10:
    Prediction.No MLB or NFL this year.No NBA or NHL next year. I consider this a better case scenario.

    What is normal? I think the world will be significantly different after the health and economic crises have run their course.

    Nobody really knows what will happen, I get what you are saying about length of return to non Covid.

    However I do not agree things will change. There is a reason politicians like Obama can’t meet there promises and visions.

    Those that run things do not let go of advantage easily. Shocks like this are used to entrench themselves even more, and own more.

    If we are saying the change will be that the rich and powerful become even moreso, sure. Other than that back to running countries based on day to day stock market prices, which isn’t in the interest of most of us.

  49. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: China is not still in lock down.

    I talk to 3 different mills in 3 different areas weekly or multiple times a week, especially lately.

    All mills (and many businesses) in China shut down for 2 weeks for Chinese New Year (CNY). This year it was the last two weeks in January.

    It usually take the mills a week after to get up to speed after that.

    This year with all the shut down, that didn’t happen as workers couldn’t get back to work as they couldn’t travel.

    Mill 1 – Dalian – close to North Korea
    They have been back at full staff for 2 weeks.

    Mill 2 near Guangzhou (in the South)
    They were at 70% staff after being 30% last week.Expect 100% over the next week or two

    Mill 3 – half way between Wuhan and Shanghai
    At 50% staff, coming up slower than the other mills, but back producing and expecting similar increases as the other mills over the next two weeks

    Also,

    My magic 8 ball has mid-June resumption of NHL hockey.

    I wonder how a shortened off season affects next season? The players I mean. I’d imagine the league may delay start a bit, but probably don’t want less games- less revenue.

  50. Side says:

    godot10: I believe I was the first person on this blog to suggest the playoffs would be played in empty buildings, and I was scoffed atTurns out I was wildly optimistic.

    I have said this before.I always consider worst case scenarios, and their likelihood. Hope is not a strategy, particularly with pandemics.

    You also said that 100 million people would die from COVID.

    You are an alarmist. You are not a prophet.

    • N64 says:

      Side: You also said that 100 million people would die from COVID.

      If no one anywhere changed their routine that’s about 1.5% of world pop.

      But he was arguing for changes to avoid, no?

      • Side says:

        I believe he said the flu kills 100 million people and covid will claim a bit less than 100 million casualties.

        Considering the flu only kills about 200 – 600something thousand people a year, globally, I have no clue how covid could possibly kill 100 million people… ever?

        Maybe if covid was x10 more deadly and no vaccine is found, maybe after 15 years it will?

        EDIT: found his quote

        “The first run through the global population will likely be pretty bad…up to 100 million dead, but then it should become part of the yearly influenza background.”

        • godot10 says:

          Spanish Flu, with about a 2% mortality rate kiled about 50 million people out of a world populaton of 1.8 billion over 2 years.

          • N64 says:

            godot10: I believe he said the flu kills 100 million people and covid will claim a bit less than 100 million casualties.

            Too many numbers being thrown around without definition.

            The 10X the seasonal flu thing (as per Dr. Fauci) is a good way to eyeball the differences, but seasonal flu varies from year to year and estimates of unreported cases vary. So it’s not useful to multiply that 10X by what number exactly?

            Next is pandemic flu. Not all the same as each other, but those are the ones that first year they arrive their is a huge problem with lack of immunity especially UNDER 65.

            The immunity issue is common to the pandemic flus but they are very different impact. 1968 and 2009 overall rates not high like the others, but of course stood out for hitting younger. 1957 hit hard. WHO will quote possibly 0.5% Infected Mortality. Now your’e getting in the ballpark. Then we come to the 1918 pandemic beyond anything we ever hope to see.

            godot10: Spanish Flu, with about a 2% mortality rate killed about 50 million people out of a world populaton of 1.8 billion over 2 years.

            The 2% is for the developed world. Many times that elsewhere. Infected 1/3 of those 1.8 billion and 50 million deaths is a good estimate.

            The chilling thing about Spanish Flu is those overall death rates were DRAGGED DOWN by the resistance of the seniors with their exposure lifetimes.

            Unchecked would this thing stop at 1/3 of populations like pandemic flu or depending on it raw transmission rate perhaps 2/3?

            Not hard to get to 100M deaths with this thing IF no one in the world changes their daily routine. Imagine trying to avoid impact if you could only see the oncoming traffic from 2 weeks ago. Built in delays and complacency can crush hospitals and multiply Infected Fatality from say 1.0% to 4.0%. But the chilling consequences force a reaction such that we hope never to see 1/3 or 2/3 of a population being infected or anything close.

            Nothing new in any of this but I think the gap is just what all of these numbers are referring to.

        • godot10 says:

          Andy Slavitt
          Former Medicare, Medicaid & ACA head for Obama. Founded
          @usofcare
          &
          @townhallvntrs
          to make health care work.

          https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1238303395448008704

          Currently experts expect over 1 million deaths in the U.S. since the virus was not contained & we cannot even test for it.

  51. Pescador says:

    who: What does your magic 8 ball say about a playoff format?
    If your 8 ball is right I assume the regular season is over?

    Last time I picked up a magic 8 ball,
    I had to self isolate for 2 weeks

  52. OriginalPouzar says:

    Assuming that Athanasiou will sign for something around his QO (or even his one year QO), I can’t imagine any scenario where the general manager trades the player for a lesser return than he paid in February.

    My goodness talk about small sample sizes – 9 games. Its not like the GM didn’t/doesn’t know the type of player AA is, the style of play he plays, his weaknesses, etc. Holland knows this player very well and acquired him for the next few years.

    The player having some issues performing and “fitting in” in 9 games, some of it injured, with a lowered confidence coming from a poor start to the year on one of the worst teams in decades – I don’t think those 9 games are going to change Holland’s path to move on from the player at a loss.

    Do we not think that AA might be a bit better after a summer away from his old organization and getting ready to be an Oiler, then a full training camp with his teammates and under the guidance of Dave Tippett, etc.?

    I was disappointed in his effectiveness as well – at the same time, the player was involved in multiple scoring chances in each of the last couple of games and showed signs of improvement – within the 9 game sample size.

  53. OriginalPouzar says:

    jtblack:
    OriginalPouzar,

    “I hope they don’t buy him out, just because I can’t look at a $2M dead cap hit for 6 years, even knowing it saves $3M plus for a couple – its too much dead cap for me.”

    Do you know what the buyout would be if they bought him out AFTER next season?I am thinking it would be slightly less $$ but for onlyl 4 years.that might make sense ..

    Same dead cap hit ($1.9M) for 4 years.

  54. OriginalPouzar says:

    Dustylegnd:
    Not wildly optimistic, but rather you were wrong…..they were never going to play NHL games in empty stadium, I never believed that scenario for a secondbecause the revenue hit is too large.

    The NHL, much more than the other 3 major North American pro sports, is dependant on gate revenue.

    Playing in empty arenas is much more probably for the NBA than the NHL.

    As per my understanding.

  55. N64 says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    I live in Calgary, the Flames announced they would not be providing financial assistance to their employees.

    https://calgaryherald.com/sports/hockey/nhl/calgary-flames/flames-employees-wont-be-paid-beyond-march-12-for-cancelled-shifts/

    Maybe Oil fans can start a GoFundMe with proceeds to Edmonton homeless orgs if the Flames reverse

  56. Harpers Hair says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    Not sure this will help since it is based on BC employment standards.

    I recently helped a couple of friends who were unceremoniously dumped by their employer (an Alberta company) who paid no severance or holiday pay claiming the individuals were contractors not employees.

    BC Labour Standards spells out who is or is not an employee based on a number of criteria including the length of the work relationship, material’s provided for work, the amount of direction on performing the work etc.

    It quickly became obvious to me they were both actually employees so I helped them through the process which was done largely on line. It took about a year and a couple of appeals from the scofflaw employer but both received compensation for lack of severance and were also awarded vacation pay that the company had not been providing. Their settlements were both well over $10K.

    I also discovered that, if they chose to, they could have also sued for additional severance and CPP and EI contributions going back further but the BC legislation limits the recovery to the past two years.

    Here’s a link to the BC guidelines.

    https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/employment-business/employment-standards-advice/employment-standards/forms-resources/employee-or-independent-contractor

  57. N64 says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    I live in Calgary, the Flames announced they would not be providing financial assistance to their employees.

    https://calgaryherald.com/sports/hockey/nhl/calgary-flames/flames-employees-wont-be-paid-beyond-march-12-for-cancelled-shifts/

    From Calgary Puck

    Hello XXXX,

    Totally not your fault personally, and we are all dealing with a lot, but please let the organization know that I’m out for playoff tickets (if it ever happens) and any future game pack or single ticket expenditures IF they don’t change their stance on this. And even if they do, I have a bad taste.

    It is extremely tone deaf and ignorant during such a crisis to treat hourly workers like this. It is also extremely poor PR after receiving a substantial contribution from taxpayers and talking about “community” and all of that nonsense.

    They’ll no doubt backtrack but this has caused considerable damage to my relationship with the organization. I might reconsider if they somehow find a way to realize how bad this looks and change – quickly.

    Again – not your fault personally, and I appreciate that you’ve had a difficult job lately as well. Please take care of yourself and your family as this world gets a bit weird – just tell your bosses to smarten up a bit, please. It is a bad look and has real world implications for a lot of people.

    James

  58. OriginalPouzar says:

    With Skelfeeta delayed and its next game scheduled for the 31st and Ligga now shut down, I have prospect Oiler to focus on, Anton Slepyshev who is trucking along in the KHL playoffs playing in empty arenas for CSKA Moscow.

    Solid chance he’s under contract in with the Oilers for next season.

    Slepy with one assist in a 3-2 win over Torpedo as they move to the semi-finals.

    Go Slepy!

  59. Munny says:

    I feel like the AB Gov’t erred on the side of the economy and not public health yesterday. Trying to do the minimum possible to contain the spread.

    We’re cheating for offense when we need to be standing Team Virus up at the blue line.

  60. OriginalPouzar says:

    €√¥£€^$:
    I understand the logic for a shortened season that applies to everyone.But in this instance, if we are talking about bonuses, the revenues by teams are reduced, so how can paying more with less be justified.From a business perspective this make no sense.

    As far as the trade goes, this pro-rating goals argument is simply silly.If scoring totals are not pro-rated for injury, why would missing games for any reason factor into this?Again, I think it fallls to there is no guarantee what a player would score in x number of games.

    In November it looked like a certainty that Neal would have a 30 goal season, but you couldn’t make that statement in mid-January.Doing this sort of thing comes with too much risk and would simply be a very poor business decision.

    I will state with 100% certainty that if the season were to be officially cancelled, the Oilers will keep the 2020 3rd round pick.I don’t bet, but I am so certain that I’d be willing to bet you a Woodguy on this OP.

    I’m not saying that the will pro-rate only that it is’t certain that they won’t or that another mechanism isn’t “negotiated”.

    This isn’t a labor dispute that has forced the league to “push pause” on the season – this is a global crisis, on many levels, a force majeure essentially.

    We don’t know what will happen. We can take guidance from the labor dispute shortened year but nothing is “known”.

    In that regard, the lawyer in me will come out and provide that, no, it is not 100% certain that the pick says – you may have certainty in your belief that it will be the case but we don’t have 100% certainty on this (even if there are no more regular season games).

  61. Reja says:

    OriginalPouzar:
    Assuming that Athanasiou will sign for something around his QO (or even his one year QO), I can’t imagine any scenario where the general manager trades the player for a lesser return than he paid in February.

    My goodness talk about small sample sizes – 9 games. Its not like the GM didn’t/doesn’t know the type of player AA is, the style of play he plays, his weaknesses, etc.Holland knows this player very well and acquired him for the next few years.

    The player having some issues performing and “fitting in” in 9 games, some of it injured, with a lowered confidence coming from a poor start to the year on one of the worst teams in decades – I don’t think those 9 games are going to change Holland’s path to move on from the player at a loss.

    Do we not think that AA might be a bit better after a summer away from his old organization and getting ready to be an Oiler, then a full training camp with his teammates and under the guidance of Dave Tippett, etc.?

    I was disappointed in his effectiveness as well – at the same time, the player was involved in multiple scoring chances in each of the last couple of games and showed signs of improvement – within the 9 game sample size.

    AA looks like he’s lost his confidence it’ll come back and I can see him being a 20 goal scorer with his speed and hard shot. I sign him at at 3.33 mil per year for 3 years.

  62. Bad Seed says:

    N64,

    They really are the godless flames

    • Halfwise says:

      Having lived in both cities I believe there is a cultural difference between Calgary and Edmonton.

      We see it most with the inferiority complex that Edmontonians tend to exhibit and that Calgarians like to prey on.

      I see it in workplace behaviours especially relationships between suppliers and customers. Calgary is more transactional in my experience.

      We’re all human but there are differences. Or maybe just confirmation bias in my observations.

  63. Reja says:

    Bad Seed:
    N64,

    They really are the godless flames

    They stole the team from Atlanta and kept the same name just to rub it in.

    • Munny says:

      Which I always thought was a bizarre choice even on the part of Atlanta.

      Big part of their history, sure… but still.

  64. Munny says:

    10 more cases in Alberta today thus far bringing the total to 39.

    • N64 says:

      Big concern beyond the raw 34% jump is the 2 cases not YET traced to travel out of country. An early case was connected to US travel one day after the public announcement thus being reclasses as travel related. So this may or may not represent unknown community transmission. Assume it is circulating everyone. Stay safe out there.

  65. hunter1909 says:

    Munny: We’re cheating for offense when we need to be standing Team Virus up at the blue line.

    On a micro level its more like WW1 in the trenches with artillery incoming.

    Nowhere to hide, but you can always try to keep your head down and hope it passes by.

  66. hunter1909 says:

    Halfwise:
    Having lived in both cities I believe there is a cultural difference between Calgary and Edmonton.

    We see it most with the inferiority complex that Edmontonians tend to exhibit and that Calgarians like to prey on.

    I see it in workplace behaviours especially relationships between suppliers and customers. Calgary is more transactional in my experience.

    We’re all human but there are differences. Or maybe just confirmation bias in my observations.

    Having lived in both cities, your take is bordering on ridiculous.

    The main difference I noted was Calgary is full of cowboys and oil and Americans and Edmonton is northern more toward the arctic based with pipeline talk in the coffee shops lol

    Calgary is drier and a lot less swampy. Instead it gets hail the size of golfballs.

    Maybe they split the province in two one day.

    • N64 says:

      Concur. It looks more like a cleanup on aisle three. Perhaps the Flames org is distracted with the passing of Ken King but this really looks like a mid level screw up that stereotypically you’d expect from all of those Edmonton civil service types.

  67. Munny says:

    N64,

    Any must-read articles today on Covid, N19?

    (hey, it adds to ten)

  68. godot10 says:

    meanashell11:
    This is BS. There will be NHL next year. There are two types of financial crises, banking and non-banking. 2008 was a banking crisis and those take a long time to work themselves out. This will be a typical recession. I certainly do not believe the NHL will only be shut down for two weeksbut can easily see two months. It’s March, life is returning to normal in China. The peak in the US will probably be in 6 weeks. The economy will take the a year to recover. This is my view. Your mileage may vary. @Rnaughtisathing

    The Fed has taken over the repo market. Banks won’t repo with each other. They have expanded their balance sheet with “non-QE” QE by $500 billion dollars since last September, and they had to do this two months before the virus outbreak in China. They announced another trillion of repo QE this week along with the emergency rate cut.

    The Bank of Canada on Friday, I believe, launched a repo facility.

    The FRA-OIS is blowing out (the cost of funding for banks).

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-09/why-it-matters-that-the-fra-ois-spread-is-widening-quicktake

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/reuters-america-us-fra-ois-spread-a-measure-of-future-bank-borrowing-costs-widens-to-73-bps-from-64-bps-thursday-usdf-o0x1r.html?&qsearchterm=fra-ois

  69. Munny says:

    godot10,

    The off-the-run Treasury market has collapsed. Market-makers aren’t making markets. Relative-value hedge funds can’t get any activity, banks & funds aren’t able to buy cash Treasuries and sell the futures contract and pocket the difference… which has essentially been a guaranteed money-maker for them for years.

    Treasuries were already starting to be dumped on the market and we will likely see prices plummet even from here.

    #nosafehaven

  70. Lowetide says:

    Halfwise:
    Having lived in both cities I believe there is a cultural difference between Calgary and Edmonton.

    We see it most with the inferiority complex that Edmontonians tend to exhibit and that Calgarians like to prey on.

    I see it in workplace behaviours especially relationships between suppliers and customers. Calgary is more transactional in my experience.

    We’re all human but there are differences. Or maybe just confirmation bias in my observations.

    Must be a generational thing. Calgary is gorgeous and the people are mostly the same, although prices are higher and income too. That would create some minor differences but mostly work to Edmonton’s advantage. Example: When I sold radio, made good dollars dealing with Calgary head offices. They had budget to spend, so I would grab that before revealing rates were lower. Increased coverage (more commercials, more impact) worked often. I never say that I made some smooth move, because buyers see sellers coming. I was a nice person and was very open about my intentions.

    My experiences with Calgary have been exceptional over many decades.

  71. Munny says:

    Trump tests negative for Coronavirus.

    Oh well…

  72. hunter1909 says:

    Lowetide: Must be a generational thing. Calgary is gorgeous and the people are mostly the same, although prices are higher and income too. That would create some minor differences but mostly work to Edmonton’s advantage. Example: When I sold radio, made good dollars dealing with Calgary head offices. They had budget to spend, so I would grab that before revealing rates were lower. Increased coverage (more commercials, more impact) worked often. I never say that I made some smooth move, because buyers see sellers coming. I was a nice person and was very open about my intentions.

    My experiences with Calgary have been exceptional over many decades.

    Overall I liked working in Calgary. Less rain, less mud, less mosquitos.

  73. Pescador says:

    Lowetide: Must be a generational thing. Calgary is gorgeous and the people are mostly the same, although prices are higher and income too. That would create some minor differences but mostly work to Edmonton’s advantage. Example: When I sold radio, made good dollars dealing with Calgary head offices. They had budget to spend, so I would grab that before revealing rates were lower. Increased coverage (more commercials, more impact) worked often. I never say that I made some smooth move, because buyers see sellers coming. I was a nice person and was very open about my intentions.

    My experiences with Calgary have been exceptional over many decades.

    Could not agree more
    Cgy Diamonds >> Diamonds Edm

  74. Scungilli Slushy says:

    SoMe kudos should be given to Katz.

    The Oilers were not what they are now when he bought them.

    He made mistakes, but I would venture their management structure is now among the best. And classy.

    It took some time but I like how they behave and come across now and did not before.

  75. v4ance says:

    In case Woodguy needs something to do:

    https://twitter.com/EyelessSilas/status/1238826217865961473?s=20

    Text:

    Day 3 without sports

    Bet on the weather!

    Beat your local meteorologist. Make money.

  76. v4ance says:

    Sean Tierney @ChartingHockey

    For fun, I took the current standings as-is and simulated R1 of the playoffs using a playoff model I’m working on.
    Here’s how that turned out:

    BOS > CBJ (4-0)
    TBL > TOR (4-2)
    WSH > CAR (4-1)
    PIT > PHI (4-3)

    VGK > WPG (4-1)
    EDM > CGY (4-1)
    NSH > STL (4-1)
    DAL > COL (4-1)

    Round 2

    TBL > BOS (4-3, TBL was down 3-1!)
    WSH > PIT (4-0)

    EDM > VGK (4-1, upset!)
    NSH > DAL (4-3, low scoring…)

    Round 3

    T.B > WSH (4-0 sweep, wowzers)
    EDM > NSH (4-3, this was a back-and-forth toss-up)

    Time for the league’s best team over the past two years to take on the McDavid-led (Draisaitl-led?) Oilers…

    We made the Cup Finals!!!

    • N64 says:

      In the Finals did a D push anyone into the goaler that got us there?

      • v4ance says:

        Well, it’s actually going to be an anti-Roloson that wins us the 2020 Cup.

        Tippett is still fixated on starting Mike Smith even though Koskinen has been arguably better so Smith gets Game 1. Midway through, Kris Russell tries to star fish on a 2 on 1 and slides into Smith’s left leg straining that groin for the rest of the series.

        Koskinen comes in and leads the Oilers the rest of the way to the Game 6, 4-2 series win at home. Nuge conquers the Conn Smythe with an ungodly 30% shooting percentage and 4 game winners including 2 OT markers. Drai gets some consideration for the playoff MVP for feeding all those beauty passes to Nuge. McDavid doesn’t have a great playoff to qualify for the Conn but his line chips in some key goals.

    • wolf8888 says:

      but…but…but…what about the nucks? 🙂

  77. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Melvis: Neither was the Eatons catalogue. But then Red Foxx could do a 45 minute set on little more than “Wash Your Ass”.

    I know the bit.

    Red Foxx is an all time beauty.

    Filthy motherfucker.

  78. Munny says:

    Out of the 200+ diseases caused by viruses, some of them known for years, scientists have managed to create (and subsequently modify due to viral mutations) 20 effective vaccines.

  79. unca miltie says:

    This is a great site for many conversations. There has been lots of laughs about the toilet paper situation but we were at Costco yesterday and there was no meat. No problem, we said our local small town grocer has a butcher and I actually prefer the meat there. I was just there, hardly any meat left either, no eggs, lots of canned goods though.

    I’ve been thinking about the economy. I saw on twitter a gal working at a hotel, no phone calls, WestJet possibly laying off 50% of their staff. the oilers paying part time staff, the flames not. I think about my work I expect retail other than groceries to fall dramatically soon. What happens to the staff in the malls, the car dealerships, vendor of other non essential items. Do businesses quit advertising. What happens if the schools do close? Do any of these people get paid? retail workers? Teachers? support staff? Does the whole country start drawing unemployment insurance?
    Al, if you think my thoughts and questions are out of line, feel free to delete.

    • Munny says:

      The economic consequences of this are likely to be so dire that slowing efforts will eventually be forsaken and the disease will be allowed to take its course until some sort of herd immunity is eventually achieved either through exposure or vaccination.

      This may be what China has decided at this point.

    • v4ance says:

      I work(ed) in a hotel and at various places like the BMO Stampede and the Telus Convention Centre. I warned co-workers to prepare as if they would be off for 6 weeks with no pay earlier this week.

      Assuming a 4 week quarrantine/lock down period, even if the covid19 cases slow down, very few event bookings will still be on the calendar starting right after the 4 weeks are up. Most organizers have already cancelled or would cancel in an abundance of caution any event up until May 1st.

      If the hotels re-open in 4 weeks, expect a 2 week lag for anything to actually happen. Any large scale event would need to publicize the new date for attendees and finalize all the details with the venues.

      A competing company laid off all their staff effective Monday so they can all try for EI. My company is still holding off on that but talking to fellow staffers, there’s maybe one small event per venue for the next week. Since management can handle that workload, it’s pretty close to 100% of the hourly staff with no shifts for the next week.

      It’s gonna get ugly for a lot of people living paycheck to paycheck

      • Munny says:

        I had no idea hotels were closing. I’m guessing this is for economic reasons more than hygienic?

        • v4ance says:

          Hotels aren’t totally shutting their doors but you can see the dominoes falling.

          There will be lots of travel restrictions and many people will be self isolating all around the world and within the country. I suspect within the week, the only people staying in Alberta hotels will be because they can’t go back to their home countries/provinces due to their own native travel bans. It’ll be like the Hotel California lyrics “You can check out any time you like, But you can never leave!'”

          To institute self isolation, the hotels will basically tell the majority of their hourly staff to just stay home for two weeks or more while they run operations with a skeleton crew of mostly managerial staff. If a hotel is lucky or unlucky (depending on your viewpoint) enough to have all their guests leave, they will shut down until travel bans are lifted and travellers and bookings return.

      • unca miltie says:

        I agree, some difficult financial times for many, The hospitality industry first with retail and service right behind. unemployment rate will skyrocket and the government deficit with it. at this rate I may never retire.

  80. Scungilli Slushy says:

    N64: Hunter, Your Death March support team needs to restore your site from backups. It’s been hacked:

    You have my entry wrong:

    https://lowetide.ca/2019/10/02/2019-20-game-one-canucks-at-oilers/comment-page-1/#comment-866106

    Do you have any info on projections for Canada and how things are looking that you would like to share again?

    I don’t have time to look too deeply and there is a lot of me too internet.

    Would be appreciated!

  81. Melvis says:

    Woodguy v2.0,

    We all need a laugh now and again. My current fave – Bill Burr.

    So I had a load of the Riff DT81 in the Argo Extreme. Nearly fuckin died…;-)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JWenOHOP2o

  82. Woodguy v2.0 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: RSSTwitter

    Daly is on record saying next season will be a full season.

    The vast majority of NHL revenues come from regular season tickets and the income that comes with that (concessions, team gear)

  83. godot10 says:

    unca miltie:
    This is a great site for many conversations. There has been lots of laughs about the toilet paper situation but we were at Costco yesterday and there was no meat. No problem, we said our local small town grocer has a butcher and I actually prefer the meat there. I was just there, hardly any meat left either, no eggs, lots of canned goods though.

    I’ve been thinking about the economy. I saw on twitter a gal working at a hotel, no phone calls, WestJet possibly laying off 50% of their staff. the oilers paying part time staff, the flames not. I think about my work I expect retail other than groceries to fall dramaticallysoon.What happens to the staff in the malls, the car dealerships, vendor of other non essential items. Do businesses quit advertising. What happens if the schools do close? Do any of these people get paid? retail workers? Teachers? support staff?Does the whole country start drawing unemployment insurance?
    Al, if you think my thoughts andquestions are out of line, feel free to delete.

    Helicopter money is coming.

    QE-for-the-people, and not just the 1% and banksters.
    Yes, it won’t work in the long term, or even the medium term. But it buys a few months.

    #TheFourthTurningCometh

  84. Scungilli Slushy says:

    Woodguy v2.0: Daly is on record saying next season will be a full season.

    The vast majority of NHL revenues come from regular season tickets and the income that comes with that (concessions, team gear)

    Cheers

  85. N64 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: Do you have any info on projections for Canada and how things are looking that you would like to share again?

    I don’t have time to look too deeply and there is a lot of me too internet.

    Would be appreciated!

    This chart is 2 days old.

    https://www.macleans.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/GILMORE1-1.png

    We were at day 6 on that chart. With 198 at day 8 we are roughly where Japan was at day 8. This is the point where the US left the Japan track when quiet spread surfaced. So are we tracing 2 weeks behind Japan or 1 week behind the US? That depends on how much unseen local transmission but also current distancing measures here

  86. Scungilli Slushy says:

    unca miltie:
    This is a great site for many conversations. There has been lots of laughs about the toilet paper situation but we were at Costco yesterday and there was no meat. No problem, we said our local small town grocer has a butcher and I actually prefer the meat there. I was just there, hardly any meat left either, no eggs, lots of canned goods though.

    I’ve been thinking about the economy. I saw on twitter a gal working at a hotel, no phone calls, WestJet possibly laying off 50% of their staff. the oilers paying part time staff, the flames not. I think about my work I expect retail other than groceries to fall dramaticallysoon.What happens to the staff in the malls, the car dealerships, vendor of other non essential items. Do businesses quit advertising. What happens if the schools do close? Do any of these people get paid? retail workers? Teachers? support staff?Does the whole country start drawing unemployment insurance?
    Al, if you think my thoughts andquestions are out of line, feel free to delete.

    I’m not a jet setter like some here.

    But I will say that I have a hard time feeling sorry for airlines.

    They are competing in the race to the bottom and in the 2-4 flights I take a year the aircraft are filthy.

    This pandemic was spread through air travel.

    Maybe charge enough to sanitize the term tubes.

    If I was rich there is no chance I’d take normal paths or conveyance through airports.

    Sickness factories

  87. BornInAGretzkyJersey says:

    €√¥£€^$,

    Late to comment but be careful with any lawsuit where you assert she’s an employee. It could have enormous tax implications. When the CRA lays ‘personal services’ judgements against people working as employees but filing taxes as a business, it’s a 50% tax bill due immediately.

  88. Gret99zky says:

    Munny:
    I feel like the AB Gov’t erred on the side of the economy and not public health yesterday.Trying to do the minimum possible to contain the spread.

    We’re cheating for offense when we need to be standing Team Virus up at the blue line.

    This.

    The Alberta Government is not doing enough.

    This wait and see approach is not preventative.

    This wait and see approach will cause a lot of families to experience trauma.

    “Let’s wait and see how many goals the opposition scores in the first period. Then, we’ll know what we need to do for the 2nd and 3rd.” Not the best strategy.

  89. N64 says:

    OriginalPouzar: I’m not saying that the will pro-rate only that it is’t certain that they won’t or that another mechanism isn’t “negotiated

    Op, I honestly don’t understand what negotiation has to do with this. For Bonuses sure they cab negotiation with the PA and perhaps pro rata as before.

    But this is purely about trades registered between teams. The only negotiation is governors trying to get almost all of the governors to make registered agreements more “fair.” Any examples of that after other short seasons?

  90. v4ance says:

    Sean Tierney @ChartingHockey

    I’ve received some requests to run this again but using pts% as the NHL will/might if they move straight into the post-season.

    BOS > NYI (4-0)
    TBL > TOR (4-0)
    WSH > CAR (4-3, CAR should’ve had it)
    PIT > PHI (4-0)

    STL > CGY (4-1)
    COL > DAL (4-0)
    NSH > VGK (4-1)
    EDM > VAN (4-2)

    Round 2!

    TBL > BOS (4-2, comeback from down 2-0)
    PIT > WSH (4-1)

    STL > COL (4-0 sweep, wowzers)
    EDM > NSH (4-0 sweep too, wow)

    Round 3!

    TBL > PIT (4-1 as PIT squanders game 1 win)
    EDM > STL (4-1 as EDM’s high-end offense hits throughout and STL’s offense falters)

    **this is the same Final matchup from the first sim (see earlier thread)***

    Cup Final!

    EDM puts up a great fight and deserves to win it by a hair in the end.

    But TBL steals game 6 in EDM and wins on home ice in game 7.

    Congrats (again!) to the Bolts!

    • N64 says:

      So in the 2nd sim the D pushed someone into the better goalie?

      • v4ance says:

        In both sims, the person doing the modelling forgot to include the 4 min high sticking penalty given to the Bolts in Game 6 as drawn by Yamamoto.

        We score 2 PP goals and steal the win in Game 6!

  91. N64 says:

    Munny:
    The economic consequences of this are likely to be so dire that slowing efforts will eventually be forsaken and the disease will be allowed to take its course until some sort of herd immunity is eventually achieved either through exposure or vaccination.

    This may be what China has decided at this point.

    From what WG described the end game is selectively restoring commerce. Even step provides feedback a few weeks later and you take as many steps as you can until you have a vaccine. After Wuhan it had to be all in. But on the far side it’s not about wide open or all closed. Heading for the wall you have to overreact because the past 2 weeks and next 2 weeks are hidden from you in different ways

    • Munny says:

      Agreed.

      But I also think that’s pretty much a best-case scenario.

      At some point the economic consequences will outweigh and affect far more people than the virus.

      We may see capitulation by the governments at some future point in time.

      They’re making the right choice right now… slow progress of the disease as best they can. But it is not a long-term solution that is in the best interests of the most people..

      • N64 says:

        Respectfully disagree. Short and Long term interests converge on one point. Flatten the curve. Best case is the new pre-vaccine normal that we relax to over a few months keeps cases to under a hundred per week. If not has to be way closer to zero than to hospitals being broken. #becauseexponentials. But that’s not a trade off you can even see how to make before the far side.

        • Munny says:

          Fair enough but I think you are underestimating the economic destruction that has occurred and will occur.

          The economy is a living, breathing thing too. Do enough damage and it could be on life support for decades, possibly a century.

          (Technically the monetary system has been on life support since the damage of WWI, but we were able to paper over it and give humans at least a semblance of economic life, however unjust that life may seem to many—and it is unjust. We might not be able to paper over this one because of the economy’s pre-existing health condition).

  92. jp says:

    Wilde:
    I have season totals because season total’d

    Regular Condors forwards (GP) by iCF/GP / / iCFA/GP / / iCont/GP / / iCont%

    Gambardella (50) – 2.86 / / 2.96 / / 5.82 / / 43.60%

    Yamamoto (23) – 3.13 / / 3.65 / / 6.78 / / 37.40%

    Esposito (56) – 2.07 / / 1.89 / / 3.96 / / 32.52%

    Stukel (35) – 2.46 / / 0.69 / / 3.14 / / 35.19%

    Maksimov (53) – 2.40 / / 1.64 / / 4.04 / / 38.40%

    Peluso (37) – 1.54 / / 1.62 / / 3.16 / / 33.10%

    Koules (32) – 1.94 / / 1.14 / / 3.00 / / 28.22%

    Benson (47) – 2.70 / / 3.13 / / 5.83 / / 41.39%

    Malone (49) – 1.90 / / 2.43 / / 4.33 / / 33.18%

    Currie (56) – 4.61 / / 1.89 / / 6.50 / / 45.25%

    Marody (30) – 2.13 / / 2.93 / / 5.07 / / 34.19%

    Hebig (31) – 1.71 / / 0.81 / / 2.52 / / 31.99%

    Cave (44) – 3.09 / / 2.39 / / 5.48 / / 36.42%

    McLeod (56) – 1.59 / / 2.21 / / 3.80 / / 35.98%

    Granlund (20) – 2.50 / / 2.05 / / 4.55 / / 35.03%

    e: should do definitions

    iCF = individual shot attempt
    iCFA = individual shot attempt primary assist
    iCont = individual shot contributions (sum of the above two)
    iCont% = share of the team’s shot attempts-for the player was on the ice for that they released or had the primary assist on

    Yamamoto tops at 6.78. But only 37.4% individual contributions.

    Does that mean he’s creating for everyone when he’s out there (but not getting credit for much of it)? Or just part of the noise? Either way his on ice metrics must be massive, no?

  93. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    – Folks: this season is over. There won’t be a playoffs.

    – I manage money for a living, for some of the weathliest familes in Canada, as well as little people like me and my family and regular folk.

    – I’ve got nothing to add about hockey, it’s done untill next year, as is all professional sport. The potential liabiltity is too great, especially in the US. They come back early and little Jonny gets coronavirus at a sporting event, leagues are bankrupt from litigation.

    – I just flew back from Miami today: it felt like the clips we saw from Baghdad Airport, pre-bombing: everyone just trying to get out.

    – But I’ve been thinking about cutting and pasting some of the comments I send to clients about what they ought to do with their finances and the market. Would this be of interest?

    – Funny joke I heard: Dr: ” Well we just ran your test and you tested positive for the Covid-19 virus” Patient: “But that’s impossible, I just bought 300 rolls of toilet paper”

    – Buckle up, be conservative, reduce expenses: this won’t be an easy out. Don’t “play” the market, unless it’s long-term money that you don’t need for a long time. Once this is over, we are in unprecented cheap money, cheap oil, crazy stimulus that we don’t know what that means when behaviour of companies, goverments and individuals return to normal

  94. Munny says:

    Gret99zky: The Alberta Government is not doing enough.
    This wait and see approach is not preventative.

    Well to be fair (and this might just be about word choice), there is nothing “preventative” about any country’s measures other than the search for a vaccine.

    This is about slowing the progress of the disease. You cannot prevent infection in the medium to long term.

    Oh. Unless you meant “preventing” health care systems from being overwhelmed, in which case you’re right and we’re in agreement.

  95. N64 says:

    Munny:
    I feel like the AB Gov’t erred on the side of the economy and not public health yesterday.Trying to do the minimum possible to contain the spread.

    One thing that was different yesterday is that they updated on non health matters like help promised and requested from Ottawa. Which meant we had to wade through biz before hearing what we needed to hear yesterday.

    There were 3 key decisions since Thursday. The meeting size decision was included in the initial transcript of the Dr’s speech. That transcript did not include the requirement to isolate every arrival from out of country. Discussion with BC goes on with all of these decisions and both announced both measures Thursday. Ottawa announced same Friday but Canadian customs still was not telling arrivals last night. NZ has now announced the same iso policy describing it as toughest in world. If anyone has an outright travel ban for the whole world they can argue that that is better. But Global’s iso is way better than bans from only some countries . The 3rd major decision was left over from Thursday. They worked Friday with universities to de exempt them from the gathering size rules.. no announcement there from Dr Hinshaw Friday or today. Universities announce 100% online.

    Sorry for all of that detail. But that’s where they were leading the last few days . Now onto the interesting part. I could guess perhaps, but aside from the finance stuff being in a different press’s conference what are you keen to see as immediate next steps?

  96. Pouzar says:

    I know the majority of posters here are left of Stalin but seriously not a single post on the ineptitude of our Prime Minister? One idiot poster in fact wishing Trump tested positive? Assholes.

    • N64 says:

      Lots of shots taken at both leaders the last few days often by the same peoole with not much defence of either. Iso for both is a great idea

      • Pouzar says:

        On this blog?

        • N64 says:

          Yes. You’ve been lurking here the last few days? Btw always good to see you wade in. Harm to either is in poor taste. Would much rather see Freeland and Pence making the decisions with the approval of JT and DT

    • Mr DeBakey says:

      You know there’s nothing “left” about Stalin?
      Stalin was just a dictator – like Hitler, like those motherfucking mullahs in Iran, like some guy who has his troops goose-steppin’ around in banana-republicville, like DT’s boss Putin.

  97. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64: Op, I honestly don’t understand what negotiation has to do with this. For Bonuses sure they cab negotiation with the PA and perhaps pro rata as before.

    But this is purely about trades registered between teams. The only negotiation is governors trying to get almost all of the governors to make registered agreements more “fair.” Any examples of that after other short seasons?

    A performance bonus vests upon a condition or conditions being met.

    A subject of a trade condition of a trade vests upon a condition or conditions being met.

    In both cases the condition or conditions that need to vest were negotiated based on a league schedule of 82 games which is highly unlikely to occur this year.

    They very well may not pro rate but I don’t think its cut and dry.

    • N64 says:

      Vesting is a good way to describe the bonuses. Now the CBA described an appeals process and the parties may choose to negotiate instead. As you describe their is some precedence fin the CBA re the partial season

      But you parallel breaks down. You didn’t get sufficient oppty to trigger a registered condition. Fine take that up with the BOG and carry almost all of them. The executive is not going to wade on to remediate between teams. The figure everything should be reibtpreted bog does that. And Gary likes that sort of thing zero

      Can’t prove what they will do. But seriously the parallel you are framing is very weak. Show probable cause. Show they’ve stepped away from trades as registered year later. Even in a shortened season

  98. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pouzar:
    I know the majority of posters hereare left of Stalin but seriously not a singlepost on the ineptitude of our Prime Minister? One idiotposter in fact wishing Trump tested positive? Assholes.

    – This will be interesting this blog. LT’s long-time take is this is a hockey blog: politics non. Whiskey yes. Jokes yes. I dont want to wade into politics. Nor do I want to be sharing finance stuff if not allowed. But this is a community that we are all invested in.

    – Trump was the elected president of the most powerful nation in the world. HIs judgement will come at the next election.

  99. JimmyV1965 says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux:
    – Folks: this season is over.There won’t be a playoffs.

    – I manage money for a living, for some of the weathliest familes in Canada, as well as little people like me and my family and regular folk.

    – I’ve got nothing to add about hockey, it’s done untill next year, as is all professional sport.The potential liabiltity is too great, especially in the US.They come back early and little Jonny gets coronavirus at a sporting event, leagues are bankrupt from litigation.

    – I just flew back from Miami today: it felt like the clips we saw from Baghdad Airport, pre-bombing: everyone just trying to get out.

    – But I’ve been thinking about cutting and pasting some of the comments I send to clients about what they ought to do with their finances and the market.Would this be of interest?

    – Funny joke I heard: Dr: ” Well we just ran your test and you tested positive for the Covid-19 virus” Patient: “But that’s impossible, I just bought 300 rolls of toilet paper”

    – Buckle up, be conservative, reduce expenses: this won’t be an easy out. Don’t “play” the market, unless it’s long-term money that you don’t need for a long time.Once this is over, we are in unprecented cheap money, cheap oil, crazy stimulus that we don’t know what that means when behaviour of companies, goverments and individuals return to normal

    Are you sure someone who voluntarily attends a sporting event, knowing what we know now, can sue the event organizers for contracting the Coronavirus? I’m sure there would be explicit warnings every step of the way. Maybe OP can shed some light.

  100. JimmyV1965 says:

    Pouzar:
    I know the majority of posters hereare left of Stalin but seriously not a singlepost on the ineptitude of our Prime Minister? One idiotposter in fact wishing Trump tested positive? Assholes.

    I think Trudeau is completely ill equipped to run a country. He’s a trust fund baby, drama teacher who has been gift wrapped virtually every achievement in his life. Yet I can’t really find fault in his actions. Just like I can’t find fault with Trump, who I dislike almost as much. Both seem to be listening to people much more knowledgeable than themselves.

  101. godot10 says:

    N64:

    Sorry for all of that detail. But that’s where they were leading the last few days . Now onto the interesting part. I could guess perhaps, but aside from the finance stuff being in a different press’s conference what are you keen to see as immediate next steps?

    What are your thoughts on daycares and K-12 schools? Once you close them, they will be closed for the duration. With the proper rules, and data collection, I would argue Health Services might be able to get valuable information about the state of neighborhoods if schools and daycares are open.

    i.e. If a child has flu-like symptoms, they can’t go to school. If they start having flu-like symptoms at school, they have to go home. If someone in the home has flu-like symptoms, they can’t go to school. Ditto for daycares. If one were to track that data, and look at anomalies and outliers, one would think that would be useful information for Public Health officials.

    i.e. you can have on-going education about what children need to know.

    Singapore has kept schools open. Taiwan has closed them. Both have been more successful than most other countries.

    • N64 says:

      That open question I just threw Munny. Schools was the topic one I was most curious to hear from him about. Have been looking at this from your angle and the opposite. You mention 2 exemplary programs on each side of this. With their level of testing surveillance I think they can both justify. We’re earlier on the curve than the US with more per capita testing, but not where those two are.

      Our CMO says every day they are looking at where kids are vs where they will be. That decision gets easier every day I think as more parents shift home and they trace cases. I’m going to assume they really are evaluating as described and are ready to move for the right reasons at the right time. When they close the school year is over.

      If they don’t move before Spring Break every parent should probably think of Friday as potentially the exit from the school year

  102. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    JimmyV1965: Are you sure someone who voluntarily attends a sporting event, knowing what we know now, can sue the event organizers for contracting the Coronavirus? I’m sure there would be explicit warnings every step of the way. Maybe OP can shed some light.

    – I spend a lot of time in the US. I had dinner on Friday with a bunch of really smart Americans. They gave me a “a ha” tidbit. It is a litigious society. They have to do everything to prevent potential liability. As much as health concerns matter in this environment, the US is unique, in that the people can sue the goverment. It’s another layer of complexity for doing what is right to protect their people

    – They sue when a foul ball hits a fan, or when the coffee that is too hot spills. Or a shooting at a school: everyone gets sued in the US. You can’t waiver liability by saying: “come to the games, sign this waiver” The rest of the world doesn’t have this problem. We need to understand this.

    – Professional sport with fans isn’t coming back for a long time: public safety as well as this backdrop isn’t appreciated. It’s the same for the whole economy in the US.

    – No one is going to sue Canada or other nations trying to contain this, for whatever mistakes are made in hingsight. But Jet Blue will get sued for not having the measures in place when sick passenger was allowed to board plane.

  103. Munny says:

    N64: One thing that was different yesterday is that they updated on non health matters like help promised and requested from Ottawa. Which meant we had to wade through biz before hearing what we needed to hear yesterday.

    There were 3 key decisions since Thursday. The meeting size decision was included in the initial transcript of the Dr’s speech. That transcript did not include the requirement to isolate every arrival from out of country. Discussion with BC goes on with all of these decisions and both announced both measures Thursday. Ottawa announced same Friday but Canadian customs still was not telling arrivals last night. NZ has now announced the same iso policy describing it as toughest in world. If anyone has an outright travel ban for the whole world they can argue that that is better. But Global’s iso is way better than bans fromonly some countries . The 3rd major decision was left over from Thursday. They worked Friday with universities to de exempt them from the gathering size rules.. no announcement there from Dr Hinshaw Friday or today. Universities announce 100% online.

    Sorry for all of that detail. But that’s where they were leading the last few days . Now onto the interesting part. I could guess perhaps, but aside from the finance stuff being in a different press’s conference what are you keen to see as immediate next steps?

    1. Access to the Heritage Trust Fund for emergency funding of health care, covering of taxation losses, one-time bonuses given to low income earners. Sadly much of this fund is tied up in illiquid investments, but do the best we can with what we have. If this isn’t the rainy day we were saving for, what the hell will be?

    2. Closure of pubs, bars, clubs and restaurants, except for drive-thrus and Skip the Dishes with more stringent hygiene regulation for those services (including delivery)

    3. Closure of mass transit, or perhaps the implementation of a massive ongoing sanitation program with capacity limits on conveyances.

    4. Closure of schools etc. My understanding from my contacts in the schooling sector is that this is likely coming but will be coordinated with Spring Break which is a couple of weeks away. Not sure waiting is a good idea.

    Quiet contingency plans to convert schools into emergency medical facilities.

    5. Implementation of drive through testing ASAP.

    6. Mandatory 24 hour cycling of Oiler Cup-winning playoff seasons, alternating with Bobby Orr’s greatest games shown nationally… okay fine, regionally. Have no idea what SN Pacific would show, so they might as well show Oiler games too.

    This is pretty extemporaneous (except for 2 and 4) so don’t beat me up too badly.

    • N64 says:

      Thanks. Will reply here in a bit.

    • N64 says:

      Interesting list. Anxious to move Munny is also maybe it’s too costy long term Munny, right.

      Let’s start at #6. Your priorities are warped. That should be #1. But alas that’s not a matter for Dr. Hinshaw and no one in AB is holding back that critical mental health measure.

      Your top priority is interesting. I was wondering aloud if your disappointment with Friday was related to the first half being about Finance not health. And then Finance is your item 1. Agree that income support for those who are going to lose income at home is critical. 10 premiers were in Ottawa for all of that this week and as we all know JT had to no show. The AB specific angle was immediate relief from the triple whammy not waiting another 6 months for the retroactive fixes. The easing needs to go to people and then they can help beat this by staying home and not having them drown and pulling the rest of the economy down with them. AB can’t print money (supreme court settled that long ago). So I think the urgency you expect there is pushing the feds and simultaneously figure out where to top up.

      2. Are bars and restaurants exempt from the 250 rule and and the remediation measure required between 50 and 250? Because they shouldn’t be. Italy locked down the whole country banned travels etc. and they simply required 1 meter separation… even for spouses. I think this area needs to be reviewed daily.

      3. The important thing is space. Agree with your two points after perhaps. Can’t confirm I’m hearing 2nd hand that full buses and trains suddenly are at fractional capacity. Maybe different at rush hour but maybe businesses that need on site staff still can switch up start and end times. As with #2 it’s about how transit provides the required separation and sanitation. Every other measure forward is going to thin out buses.

      4. See my reply to Godot. I was curious if the was your #1. You list #2 and 4 as not extemperaneous, so I was not far off. I think they really are sorting out the net impact of closing vs. keeping elementary open for daycare only (kind of like when buses aren’t running at -40 but a fraction of kids are in the bldge. vs staying open. Studying to avoid decisions is bad news. But that’s not what I see here. Universities were exempt from the large gathering policy, Thurday night universites announced a snow day while they worked with Healh on implementation. U of C ahnounced pure online Fri night. U of A Sat morning. I expect the same seriousness on high school and elementary.

      5. I’d break that one down. No tests in hospitals. Lots of ways to do that as you scale up testing capacity. Alberta stared with drive to your place while setting up assessment centres. Drive thru in Korea means you roll down the windows, they start the interview process, then you exit the car for the test. As testing ramps up that’s a great assembly line process. But it’s still an assessment centre.

      Serious stuff. They deserve no grade curve on any of this.

      • Munny says:

        Sorry for the delayed reply… y’know life, the universe and everything. You will find my full reply to you in the main thread below.

        Once I figure it out, lol.

  104. OriginalPouzar says:

    N64:
    Vesting is a good way to describe the bonuses. Now the CBA described an appeals process and the parties may choose to negotiate instead. As you describe their is some precedence fin the CBA re the partial season

    But you parallel breaks down. You didn’t get sufficient oppty to trigger a registered condition. Fine take that up with the BOG and carry almost all of them. The executive is not going to wade on to remediate between teams. The figure everything should be reibtpreted bog does that. And Gary likes that sort of thing zero

    Can’t prove what they will do. But seriously the parallel you are framing is very weak. Show probable cause. Show they’ve stepped away from trades as registeredyear later.Even in a shortened season

    Your points are fair however show me the time in the last 100 years where a season was stopped due to a global health crisis?

    There is no precedent in the modern era for how these items will be dealt with.

    • N64 says:

      Why is precedent required? The remediation process for all registered trades is the BOG. Now if you want to argue that this is way more needing fairness than a strike shortened season fine. But that’s going to governor’s making that point and it does with only a few objections

      Remember that stupid 2nd round for non duty gm and coaches. When the guvs tossed that out half wanted it to retroactive. The others laughed.

  105. Pouzar says:

    JimmyV1965,

    Thx for the reply. I rarely comment anymore but felt compelled here. Back to full time lurker status.

  106. Munny says:

    Is it strange coincidence that today HBO is deciding to play all 5 Chernobyl episodes back-to-back?

    #extraordinarymeasures

  107. OriginalPouzar says:

    JimmyV1965: Are you sure someone who voluntarily attends a sporting event, knowing what we know now, can sue the event organizers for contracting the Coronavirus? I’m sure there would be explicit warnings every step of the way. Maybe OP can shed some light.

    Although that wouldn’t be my area of expertise in any event, I won’t be providing any sort of light on anything really – my first has been retained by the Federal Government (we act for them routinely) and I’ve been on conference calls for much of the evening on finance matters and structuring government support on various levels.

    I’m going to stick to strictly Oilers and hockey.

  108. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Pouzar,

    – Miss you Pouzar….

  109. Munny says:

    Pouzar:
    I know the majority of posters hereare left of Stalin but seriously not a singlepost on the ineptitude of our Prime Minister? One idiotposter in fact wishing Trump tested positive? Assholes.

    I don’t actually wish he had it, or at least not more than any other random government leader.

    I’m usually typified by others on here as being somewhere right of Adam Smith, so I’m not the Stalinist droid you’re looking for.

    Also, miss your posts and presence.

  110. godot10 says:

    JimmyV1965: I think Trudeau is completely ill equipped to run a country. He’s a trust fund baby, drama teacher who has been gift wrapped virtually every achievement in his life. Yet I can’t really find fault in his actions. Just like I can’t find fault with Trump, who I dislike almost as much. Both seem to be listening to people much more knowledgeable than themselves.

    Who made the decision to let his spouse go to the UK? That is a big black mark on his so-called science-based advisors. There was a teeny tinge of “wokeness” in the federal government’s response before Sophie tested positive, particularly about travel and monitoring into and out of the country. And if one follows Twitter, they have been slow implementing the announcements of Thursday and Friday on travel, like they had done no preplanning and preparations for the decisions. And are making some of these decisions on the fly. i.e. Make the announcement for PR effect, and they start figuring out how to implement it.

    BC’s ability to test is becoming strained. How could the federal government allow that to happen? Why aren’t they paying attention. Particularly after boasting about how much better Canada had been doing in this area than the Americans. It is not that they don’t know that the American failure on testing has been the biggest failure down south.

    • unca miltie says:

      as I posted on the website the other day, I was planning to go South based on the federal Government stance on air travel. it was the provinces and N64 that recommended not to go.

      • N64 says:

        This week Alberta progressed from if you are over 65 do not go and avoid gatherings when you return to no one go and everyone iso when they return. BC moved lockstep with AB on that in same period. ON and QC also evolved over the week. On Friday am Ottawa finally jumped foward. Friday night folks were clearing Canada custom in Alberta with zero word from federal employees about the joint requirement for iso. just not serious.

  111. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    OriginalPouzar: Although that wouldn’t be my area of expertise in any event, I won’t be providing any sort of light on anything really – my first has been retained by the Federal Government (we act for them routinely) and I’ve been on conference calls for much of the evening on finance matters and structuring government support on various levels.

    I’m going to stick to strictly Oilers and hockey.

    – Well that’s your perogative. But if you wanted to share perspetives that are not subject to non-disclosure, that would be a service IMO. Your at BLG aren’t you? I will look you up and send you an email at work to follow up, if you’d accept.

  112. godot10 says:

    Munny: 1. Access to the Heritage Trust Fund for emergency funding of health care, covering of taxation losses, one-time bonuses given to low income earners.Sadly much of this fund is tied up in illiquid investments, but do the best we can with what we have.If this isn’t the rainy day we were saving for, what the hell will be?

    The federal government will do income support. It is their responsibility. Selling assets low from the Heritage Trust Fund is ill-advised when we are headed to ZIRP and NIRP and massive QE.

    • Munny says:

      Many of those assets are long term investments that originated many years ago and would not return a loss. Many of them are also USD denominated and as you know USD is only going to get stronger through this crisis.

      While income support is the Federal government’s responsibility it is very likely their efforts will fall short and the province needs to take care of its own. Not to mention NIRP and ZIRP do sweet fuck all for Joe and Joanie Paycheque.

      And if you re-read my comment, the first two facets are covering emergency medical funding and provincial operations that will be affected by the coming reduction in tax collections, neither of which is Federal (although they will likely throw the provinces some bones to help with Health).

  113. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    godot10,

    g- what is your professional background? I appreciate your posts: Oiler and economy…

    • godot10 says:

      DM at twitter godot10 or gmail godot10.

      These are lightly used accounts but if I know a message is coming I will check them.

  114. Someone says:

    Just wanted to echo others in saying thanks to those of you for keeping us updated. Seems the powers that be are (somewhat understandably) slow in really communicating the serious threat that this thing poses.

    We may have dodged a bullet regarding covid-19. A friend of mine recently returned from a couple of months in Amsterdam. He was supposed to come over for a beer a few days ago but fell asleep on the couch. Being that I had been working 15 hour days the 5 days prior, I wasn’t online a whole lot and not really up to date. My grandparents (grandma is 83 with diabetes, grandpa is 82 with COPD and a pacemaker) and in laws (FIL is 73 and relatively healthy, MIL is 68 and diabetic) came over the following day, and today I learned my friend is now showing symptoms and awaiting testing. While we don’t know if buddy actually has it yet, we could have exposed 4 high risk people to it. We also have a 2 and 3 year old at home.

    Since reading through the links people are posting here as well as other news sources, it’s a little frightening to think about.

    • N64 says:

      The guidance about this nation and that and ages to go and when to isolate. It was Swiss Cheese and whatever they restricted wasn’t the most pressing danger. By the time Iran made the list Italy was overdue.

      The right thing is don’t leave the country and 2 weeks isolation when you return. Thank goodness provinces stopped waiting for our feds to throw out the patchwork.

      Best of luck with family through all of this.

  115. Mr DeBakey says:

    Munny:
    MUNNYsays:
    March 14, 2020 at 10:25 pm
    Fair enough but I think you are underestimating the economic destruction that has occurred and will occur.

    The economy is a living, breathing thing too. Do enough damage and it could be on life support for decades, possibly a century.

    A different POV:

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/the-coronavirus-pandemic-probably-wont-have-a-huge-economic-impact/

    • N64 says:

      There are lowetidian themes in there. At the end of the Great this hit so hard and wiped out young (not old). And we’e not likely to lose even the same % overall. It changed people long term more than it changed the economy. And the stories that generation could tell. We did not hear them directly but we heard echos of them in other stories from children who grew up in the Great Depression.

      The multi-month forced hiatus to home (in many cases while working online) will be followed by a stripped back year waiting for vaccines and then who knows what stories we will all have to tell? Hopefully we’ll be able to laugh at the hardships and celebrate what our health care worker do with the time we can buy them.

      /glurge

      • N64 says:

        Hey my point wasnt that the economy is going to be unchanged by this. More that people will change and that the economy will change with them . The graph was a bromide but as I mentioned there is a lot of different things inside GDP and they will not be affected equally.

        What people choose afterwards and I don’t mean that in any political sense but just personally. How business look at supply chain risks afterwards. Those will all affect whatever shows up in GDP and stock markets. Economies will always meet inelastic and elastic needs. Will be more the same than we think and more different than we think. Who knows how much will change in 20 years with or without this crisis?

    • Munny says:

      Despite the source, I will give this an honest read, bear with me.

      • N64 says:

        Hey my point wasnt that the economy is going to be unchanged by this. More that people will change and that the economy will change with them . The graph was a bromide but as I mentioned there is a lot of different things inside GDP and they will not be affected equally.

        What people choose afterwards and I don’t mean that in any political sense but just personally. How business look at supply chain risks afterwards. Those will all affect whatever shows up in GDP and stock markets. Economies will always meet inelastic and elastic needs. Will be more the same than we think and more different than we think. Who knows how much will change in 20 years with or without this crisis?

    • godot10 says:

      The economy in 1918 still had relatively sound money, and it was based on real production. It was also relatively local.

      The economy in 2020 is a globalized financialized Ponzi economy and unsound money. It dies when the spice…er…credit stops flowing.

  116. Kinger_Oil.redux says:

    Mr DeBakey: A different POV:

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/the-coronavirus-pandemic-probably-wont-have-a-huge-economic-impact/

    – Thanks for this: That was over 100 years ago. While we don’t know the medical and scientific difference between the Spanish Flu and this, without a doubt the access to informatiion and the intertwined economies of today vs, the end of the the 1st world war are not the same

    – Certainly the “stimulus” after the 1st world war in terms of spending and whenever this passes in terms of consumer, business and governmet cofidence post Covid-19 might be somewhat analagous, they are completly different… The Spanish flew was totally a minor issue vs. end of WW!, in terms of economic growth.

    – For sure there will be a massive rally in world’s economy post Covid-19, to be sure.

    * I don;t mean to highjack this thread, It’s just helpful for me. Over and out.

    • Munny says:

      Kinger_Oil.redux: – For sure there will be a massive rally in world’s economy post Covid-19, to be sure.

      On what basis do you assert this?

      I’d like to believe it, but it is not an assertion I can make with confidence.

  117. Ribs says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – But I’ve been thinking about cutting and pasting some of the comments I send to clients about what they ought to do with their finances and the market. Would this be of interest?

    That would be great!

  118. v4ance says:

    Randy Renstrom @RandyRenstrom

    You know how everyone rushed to stores at the same time and bought out everything at once instead of staggering their visits?

    Now imagine that same thing in hospitals, but instead of toilet paper, it’s ICU beds and ventilators that are out. This is why everything is cancelled.

    So in this apt analogy, anyone who arrives at the store late doesn’t get any TP. Anyone arriving later to the ICU doesn’t get a bed or ventilator and dies.

    • Munny says:

      So apt.

      I was saying to a client tonight that the best strategy likely would be to get infected right now

      • N64 says:

        And the worst possible collective result and also a bad personal bet that we’ll permit infection rates to get to 25%.

  119. Munny says:

    N64:
    Interesting list. Anxious to move Munny is also maybe it’s too costy longterm Munny, right.

    (I moved this out of the nested feature to make it easier to reply to each point.)

    Yes. I think the short term path is much clearer. Medium and long term much more difficult. Let me ask you this… What is the exit strategy? How does it end? Because it can really only end with herd immunity… either through exposure or vaccination. Are we okay with relenting on the slowing measures at some point and a significant percentage of our elderly dying prematurely?

    I don’t know the public and political tolerance for either the mitigation measures or the deaths of familial p/matriarchs, but I do know the economy will not tolerate stringent mitigation long term.

    But let’s save medium and long term for another day… we need more info regardless. My guess though is that we will see waves of this disease with multiple peaks.

    Your top priority is interesting. I was wondering aloud if your disappointment with Friday was related to the first half being about Finance not health. And then Finance is your item 1. Agree that income support for those who are going to lose income at home is critical. 10 premiers were in Ottawa for all of that this week and as we all know JT had to no show. The AB specific angle was immediate relief from the triple whammy not waiting another 6 months for the retroactive fixes. The easing needs to go to people and then they can help beat this by staying home and not having them drown and pulling the rest of the economy down with them. AB can’t print money (supreme court settled that long ago). So I think the urgency you expect there is pushing the feds and simultaneously figure out where to top up.

    I have to admit N64, I was not ranking these on any basis, but rather spewing due to time pressures, and numbering only to keep the points separate.

    If I were to rank them, I would probably have testing as Numero Uno, but I think they are all important. Since the Heritage Trust Fund divestiture would require the most time, perhaps it should be first, but in the short term, it’s not as important as testing and beginning the process of mitigation.

    2. Are bars and restaurants exempt from the 250 rule and and the remediation measure required between 50 and 250? Because they shouldn’t be. Italy locked down the whole country banned travels etc. and they simply required 1 meter separation… even for spouses. I think this area needs to be reviewed daily.

    If we’re going to do economic damage, and most certainly we are, I don’t know why this measure wasn’t included up front other than to buy some economic time, mentally prepare owners and workers, and allow the Feds time to get their EI aid up and running. It should have been included in my view… but not with immediate closure (Friday), rather a delayed closure (Monday) to somewhat lessen the blow. It’s going to happen so why wait?

    I’m fortunate enough to have access to conversations with many young adults, different ones daily, and I have been informally polling them over the past few days, and I will tell you (and this probably comes as no surprise)—especially males under 30—that almost none of them give two fucks about this or social distancing or any of the mitigation measures other than their potential loss of income, which they typically resent.

    This is of course not representative of every male individual from that cohort that I have had conversations with, but certainly the overwhelming majority. From High School educated, to in University, to University graduate… regardless they usually feel the same way.

    Bars (not large city clubs obviously), typically run somewhere in the neighbourhood of 150-175 capacity so would be exempt from the regulation. Both bars in town of that size were absolutely bumping tonight. Capacity is set by provincial fire regulations, which is one person per square meter of front end footage. There is no way to enforce two metres, and is typically unpractical in any regard due to tables, dance floors etc.

    I’m good friends with the President of the local Lions Club, which runs the town Event Centre… When I see him next I will ask about Banquets, Weddings, private functions and the like. The local bowling alley held a large kid’s Birthday party tonight. When I walked in to check out the scene, they were crammed into the video area, about 40 kids in less than 40 square meters.

    3. The important thing is space. Agree with your two points after perhaps. Can’t confirm I’m hearing 2nd hand that full buses and trains suddenly are at fractional capacity. Maybe different at rush hour but maybe businesses that need on site staff still can switch up start and end times. As with #2 it’s about how transit provides the required separation and sanitation.Every other measure forward is going to thin out buses.

    Staggering start times is a great idea. Full closure of mass transit is a pretty hefty burden on low income cohorts. Running more buses would also help but that’s not exactly something that scales quickly and easily.

    I know the province has a low income program for taxicabs… they get a certain dollar value in chits per month the cab companies then redeem… perhaps that could be expanded?

    4. See my reply to Godot. I was curious if the was your #1. You list #2 and 4 as not extemperaneous, so I was not far off. I think they really are sorting out the net impact of closing vs. keeping elementary open for daycare only (kind of like when buses aren’t running at -40 but a fraction of kids are in the bldge. vs staying open. Studying to avoid decisions is bad news. But that’s not what I see here. Universities were exempt from the large gathering policy, Thurday night universites announced a snow day while they worked with Healh on implementation. U of C ahnounced pure online Fri night. U of A Sat morning. I expect the same seriousness on high school and elementary.

    Bars and schools were certainly the first 2 things that came to mind post-press conference. i knew already that all major post-secondary institutions were moving to online learning (a direction all post-secondary schooling is moving at any rate)… which likely meant that high schools would eventually follow suit.

    The problem is the 5-15 cohort… who are incredibly social, resist social restrictions, are awful at hygiene, and, if their parents must continue to work, often end up in the care of their grandparents. And again can’t easily double the number of school buses either., nor will staggering work here. Nightmare situation with no good solution.

    But if a kid from that age group is diagnosed Sunday, the schools will be done Monday. That’s how the world works. And we do have to consider the susceptibility of teachers and support staff, many of whom would be in the high risk groups.

    I think it would have been better to close the schools through to the coming Spring Break, as opposed to closing after. I understand Godot’s point (and Hinshaw’s) about the efficacy of doing so, but those countries that have been successful at mitigation without closing the schools have societies that are more unified, regimented, and have past experience with SARS and MERS,

    5. I’d break that one down. No tests in hospitals. Lots of ways to do that as you scale up testing capacity. Alberta started with drive to your place while setting up assessment centres. Drive thru in Korea means you roll down the windows, they start the interview process, then you exit the car for the test. As testing ramps up that’s a great assembly line process. But it’s still an assessment centre.

    I think we are in complete agreement with this one.

    Serious stuff. They deserve no grade curve on any of this.

    At least an incomplete at this point perhaps.

    One thing that has occurred to me since my OP is offering to those workers whose livelihoods are displaced by this crisis, especially young adults, an opportunity to provide support dealing with the crisis… whether it be in drive-thru testing, public sanitation, hospital support or whatever, and paying them as contract workers to the government. The pay would be better than anything EI could offer, and would alleviate boredom and restlessness among youth (which is a serious problem in any society with high youth unemployment). Training always takes time, so why not anticipate this need now?

    • N64 says:

      Munny: Bars (not large city clubs obviously), typically run somewhere in the neighbourhood of 150-175 capacity so would be exempt from the regulation.

      My point was that the requiremens for 50-250 involve working with each industry very quickly to flesh that out or shut them down.. we both noted that this dynamic operated on universities even though completely exempted and they shut for review and did not reopen. Where we converge is that the same review for bars should result in closure or significant specific restrictions. Neither of would have closed them this week I see. Difference is do you give them a few days of dialog to find a way not to close? We could split the difference Thursday by explicitly stating that the mitigation required for 50-250 if not implementable would lead to closures of effected industry. Because it would anyways. See universities.

      Restaurants I think daily review is needed to evolve what’s permitted. I’ll note to no one’s surprise there is a 48% drop in capacity. I’m fine with seeing distance measures in place there ASAP

      Munny: if their parents must continue to work, often end up in the care of their grandparents.

      You see the problem there right. That’s the sort of thing the CMO is reviewing to guauge net results. Let’s split the difference for today and shut secondary while sorting out
      elementary.

    • N64 says:

      Munny: What is the exit strategy? How does it end? Because it can really only end with herd immunity… either through exposure or vaccination. Are we okay with relenting on the slowing measures at some point and a significant percentage of our elderly dying prematurely?

      I don’t know the public and political tolerance for either the mitigation measures or the deaths of familial p/matriarchs, but I do know the economy will not tolerate stringent mitigation long term.

      Let’s start with the last point. One country recently reported half their ICU occupancy was under 65. Seasonal flu experience does us a disservice here. The horror of death under 65 is going to resonate too.

      My fundamental thought is that entry and exit strategy are dead opposite (pun intended). Due to exponentials the hidden. 2 week past and hidden 2 week future the calculation of cost benefits is not calculable for entry but very calculable during exit. Completely assymetric. No balance photo available.

      As per OP and WG reports there is some relaxation on the far side. You only need about 60,% social contact reduction so first step is to focus on meeting non elastic demand. After that you can move on to see how much you can respond to elastic demand. How far life returns to normal before vaccines is unknown. Economic rebound afterwards unknown. But I do think countries in the developed world will be able to relax sufficiently to maintain agreement not to let this back out of control. We wait.

  120. Scungilli Slushy says:

    JimmyV1965: I think Trudeau is completely ill equipped to run a country. He’s a trust fund baby, drama teacher who has been gift wrapped virtually every achievement in his life. Yet I can’t really find fault in his actions. Just like I can’t find fault with Trump, who I dislike almost as much. Both seem to be listening to people much more knowledgeable than themselves.

    When JT first elected I was soon struck with how similar he and DT are. The difference is generational.

    3rd gen rich kids, repeated issues with plainly obvious personal and professional ethical decisions (rules don’t apply to me), hair strangeness, weak leaders and decision makers. Etc etc

  121. hunter1909 says:

    Scungilli Slushy: When JT first elected I was soon struck with how similar he and DT are. The difference is generational.

    3rd gen rich kids, repeated issues with plainly obvious personal and professional ethical decisions (rules don’t apply to me), hair strangeness, weak leaders and decision makers. Etc etc

    Yes but one of them hates CNN the other one probably loves it.

    PS: With my construction background, it’s amazing to think anyone could build what Trump has managed to build in NYC. Slagging him off is supposed to be easier than that.

  122. hunter1909 says:

    Munny: I’m fortunate enough to have access to conversations with many young adults, different ones daily, and I have been informally polling them over the past few days, and I will tell you (and this probably comes as no surprise)—especially males under 30—that almost none of them give two fucks about this or social distancing or any of the mitigation measures other than their potential loss of income, which they typically resent.
    This is of course not representative of every male individual from that cohort that I have had conversations with, but certainly the overwhelming majority. From High School educated, to in University, to University graduate… regardless they usually feel the same way.
    Bars (not large city clubs obviously), typically run somewhere in the neighbourhood of 150-175 capacity so would be exempt from the regulation. Both bars in town of that size were absolutely bumping tonight. Capacity is set by provincial fire regulations, which is one person per square meter of front end footage. There is no way to enforce two metres, and is typically unpractical in any regard due to tables, dance floors etc.

    Just think if this thing targets baby boomers only; you seriously have to wonder what 20 year olds imagine being 35 is, let alone preparing for the grave lol

  123. Wilde says:

    jp: Yamamoto tops at 6.78. But only 37.4% individual contributions.

    Does that mean he’s creating for everyone when he’s out there (but not getting credit for much of it)? Or just part of the noise? Either way his on ice metrics must be massive, no?

    He’s the strongest on-ice differential generator, yeah. Contribution %, at least for me, within a certain range, is more about role than performance

  124. Munny says:

    Mr DeBakey: A different POV:

    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/03/the-coronavirus-pandemic-probably-wont-have-a-huge-economic-impact/

    Okay, just read it…

    Firstly, that article is so light on analysis and detail it is little more than a drive-by shooting… and it misses its target. I mean really, the economic consequences of this crisis examined in something like 5 paragraphs?

    Secondly, his primary data point is GDP. There probably isn’t an economic statistic that is more flawed than GDP. Especially during wartime periods.

    Thirdly, we’re talking about a time when nearly all developed economies were heavily agrarian-based and far less people lived in cities. Not to mention household creation began much earlier and people had far more children. This is not that world. (That said there will be a coming baby boom out of this… y’know you lock people up long enough)

    Fourthly, highly integrated supply chains and the production of complex technologies can’t be simply re-sourced to “lightly hit areas” as the author suggests. You can’t build production facilities, re-integrate supply chains and train workers fast enough, especially when economic resources are tied up fighting the virus and keeping the populace from starving (and/or going nuts). And where will “lightly hit areas be” lol.

    Fifthly, he completely disregards the monetary and financial aspects of this crisis. WWI and the Spanish Flu resulted in the Great Depression and the rise of pedagogues like Hitler, Stalin and Mao… and another World War. Countries, Newfoundland for eg, lost their sovereignty because of the events of that time period. But he’s okay with all that… those effects weren’t HUGE?

    Sorry, but that article was pretty weak-ass and totally unconvincing.

  125. OriginalPouzar says:

    SHL cancels its season/playoffs.

    I wonder if this means that Holland can now get Berglund under contract for next season.

    Is Broberg’s SHL career done? I anticipate he stays for one more year.

  126. Wilde says:

    Scungilli Slushy:

    When JT first elected I was soon struck with how similar he and DT are. The difference is generational.
    3rd gen rich kids, repeated issues with plainly obvious personal and professional ethical decisions (rules don’t apply to me), hair strangeness, weak leaders and decision makers. Etc etc

    On the other hand, I’d say they’re the two capital-permitted opposites. Macron/Trudeau are in one category, Johnson and Trump in another.

  127. OriginalPouzar says:

    Kinger_Oil.redux: – Well that’s your perogative.But if you wanted to share perspetives that are not subject to non-disclosure, that would be a service IMO.Your at BLG aren’t you? I will look you up and send you an email at work to follow up, if you’d accept.

    Happy to correspond via e-mail.

  128. OilStained99 says:

    dessert1111,

    With the season being cut short… the salary cap may drop next season, instead of the earlier estimates of it going up. This may open the door to the league allowing each team to get 1 free buyout with no cap penalty. Covid – 19 may just solve our James Neal problem 🤞

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